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Stochastic information, to be understood as "information gained by the application of stochastic methods", is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate. This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA. The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes "redder", i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the "maneuvering space" humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider "probabilistic uncertainty", i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability. As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2°C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.
Origin and symmetry of the observed global magnetic fields in galaxies are not fully understood. We intend to clarify the question of the magnetic field origin and investigate the global action of the magneto-rotational instability (MRI) in galactic disks with the help of 3D global magneto-hydrodynamical (MHD) simulations. The calculations were done with the time-stepping ZEUS 3D code using massive parallelization. The alpha-Omega dynamo is known to be one of the most efficient mechanisms to reproduce the observed global galactic fields. The presence of strong turbulence is a pre-requisite for the alpha-Omega dynamo generation of the regular magnetic fields. The observed magnitude and spatial distribution of turbulence in galaxies present unsolved problems to theoreticians. The MRI is known to be a fast and powerful mechanism to generate MHD turbulence and to amplify magnetic fields. We find that the critical wavelength increases with the increasing of magnetic fields during the simulation, transporting the energy from critical to larger scales. The final structure, if not disrupted by supernovae explosions, is the structure of `thin layers' of thickness of about 100 pcs. An important outcome of all simulations is the magnitude of the horizontal components of the Reynolds and Maxwell stresses. The result is that the MRI-driven turbulence is magnetic-dominated: its magnetic energy exceeds the kinetic energy by a factor of 4. The Reynolds stress is small and less than 1% of the Maxwell stress. The angular momentum transport is thus completely dominated by the magnetic field fluctuations. The volume-averaged pitch angle is always negative with a magnitude of about -30. The non-saturated MRI regime is lasting sufficiently long to fill the time between the galactic encounters, independently of strength and geometry of the initial field. Therefore, we may claim the observed pitch angles can be due to MRI action in the gaseous galactic disks. The MRI is also shown to be a very fast instability with e-folding time proportional to the time of one rotation. Steep rotation curves imply a stronger growth for the magnetic energy due to MRI. The global e-folding time is from 44 Myr to 100 Myr depending on the rotation profile. Therefore, MRI can explain the existence of rather large magnetic field in very young galaxies. We also have reproduced the observed rms values of velocities in the interstellar turbulence as it was observed in NGC 1058. We have shown with the simulations that the averaged velocity dispersion of about 5 km/s is a typical number for the MRI-driven turbulence in galaxies, which agrees with observations. The dispersion increases outside of the disk plane, whereas supernovae-driven turbulence is found to be concentrated within the disk. In our simulations the velocity dispersion increases a few times with the heights. An additional support to the dynamo alpha-effect in the galaxies is the ability of the MRI to produce a mix of quadrupole and dipole symmetries from the purely vertical seed fields, so it also solves the seed-fields problem of the galactic dynamo theory. The interaction of magneto-rotational instability and random supernovae explosions remains an open question. It would be desirable to run the simulation with the supernovae explosions included. They would disrupt the calm ring structure produced by global MRI, may be even to the level when we can no longer blame MRI to be responsible for the turbulence.
Wetting and phase transitions play a very important role our daily life. Molecularly thin films of long-chain alkanes at solid/vapour interfaces (e.g. C30H62 on silicon wafers) are very good model systems for studying the relation between wetting behaviour and (bulk) phase transitions. Immediately above the bulk melting temperature the alkanes wet partially the surface (drops). In this temperature range the substrate surface is covered with a molecularly thin ordered, solid-like alkane film ("surface freezing"). Thus, the alkane melt wets its own solid only partially which is a quite rare phenomenon in nature. The thesis treats about how the alkane melt wets its own solid surface above and below the bulk melting temperature and about the corresponding melting and solidification processes. Liquid alkane drops can be undercooled to few degrees below the bulk melting temperature without immediate solidification. This undercooling behaviour is quite frequent and theoretical quite well understood. In some cases, slightly undercooled drops start to build two-dimensional solid terraces without bulk solidification. The terraces grow radially from the liquid drops on the substrate surface. They consist of few molecular layers with the thickness multiple of all-trans length of the molecule. By analyzing the terrace growth process one can find that, both below and above the melting point, the entire substrate surface is covered with a thin film of mobile alkane molecules. The presence of this film explains how the solid terrace growth is feeded: the alkane molecules flow through it from the undercooled drops to the periphery of the terrace. The study shows for the first time the coexistence of a molecularly thin film ("precursor") with partially wetting bulk phase. The formation and growth of the terraces is observed only in a small temperature interval in which the 2D nucleation of terraces is more likely than the bulk solidification. The nucleation mechanisms for 2D solidification are also analyzed in this work. More surprising is the terrace behaviour above bulk the melting temperature. The terraces can be slightly overheated before they melt. The melting does not occur all over the surface as a single event; instead small drops form at the terrace edge. Subsequently these drops move on the surface "eating" the solid terraces on their way. By this they grow in size leaving behind paths from were the material was collected. Both overheating and droplet movement can be explained by the fact that the alkane melt wets only partially its own solid. For the first time, these results explicitly confirm the supposed connection between the absence of overheating in solid and "surface melting": the solids usually start to melt without an energetic barrier from the surface at temperatures below the bulk melting point. Accordingly, the surface freezing of alkanes give rise of an energetic barrier which leads to overheating.
Subject of this work is the study of applications of the Galactic Microlensing effect, where the light of a distant star (source) is bend according to Einstein's theory of gravity by the gravitational field of intervening compact mass objects (lenses), creating multiple (however not resolvable) images of the source. Relative motion of source, observer and lens leads to a variation of deflection/magnification and thus to a time dependant observable brightness change (lightcurve), a so-called microlensing event, lasting weeks to months. The focus lies on the modeling of binary-lens events, which provide a unique tool to fully characterize the lens-source system and to detect extra-solar planets around the lens star. Making use of the ability of genetic algorithms to efficiently explore large and intricate parameter spaces in the quest for the global best solution, a modeling software (Tango) for binary lenses is developed, presented and applied to data sets from the PLANET microlensing campaign. For the event OGLE-2002-BLG-069 the 2nd ever lens mass measurement has been achieved, leading to a scenario, where a G5III Bulge giant at 9.4 kpc is lensed by an M-dwarf binary with total mass of M=0.51 solar masses at distance 2.9 kpc. Furthermore a method is presented to use the absence of planetary lightcurve signatures to constrain the abundance of extra-solar planets.
Due to its relevance for global climate, the realistic representation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean models is a key task. In recent years, two paradigms have evolved around what are its driving mechanisms: diapycnal mixing and Southern Ocean winds. This work aims at clarifying what sets the strength of the Atlantic overturning components in an ocean general circulation model and discusses the role of spatially inhomogeneous mixing, numerical diffusion and winds. Furthermore, the relation of the AMOC with a key quantity, the meridional pressure difference is analyzed. Due to the application of a very low diffusive tracer advection scheme, a realistic Atlantic overturning circulation can be obtained that is purely wind driven. On top of the winddriven circulation, changes of density gradients are caused by increasing the parameterized eddy diffusion in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The linear relation between the maximum of the Atlantic overturning and the meridional pressure difference found in previous studies is confirmed and it is shown to be due to one significant pressure gradient between the average pressure over high latitude deep water formation regions and a relatively uniform pressure between 30°N and 30°S, which can directly be related to a zonal flow through geostrophy. Under constant Southern Ocean windstress forcing, a South Atlantic outflow in the range of 6-16 Sv is obtained for a large variety of experiments. Overall, the circulation is winddriven but its strength not uniquely determined by the Southern Ocean windstress. The scaling of the Atlantic overturning components is linear with the background vertical diffusivity, not confirming the 2/3 power law for one-hemisphere models without wind forcing. The pycnocline depth is constant in the coarse resolution model with large vertical grid extends. It suggests the ocean model operates like the Stommel box model with a linear relation of the pressure difference and fixed vertical scale for the volume transport. However, this seems only valid for vertical diffusivities smaller 0.4 cm²/s, when the dominant upwelling within the Atlantic occurs along the boundaries. For larger vertical diffusivities, a significant amount of interior upwelling occurs. It is further shown that any localized vertical mixing in the deep to bottom ocean cannot drive an Atlantic overturning. However, enhanced boundary mixing at thermocline depths is potentially important. The numerical diffusion is shown to have a large impact on the representation of the Atlantic overturning in the model. While the horizontal numerical diffusion tends to destabilize the Atlantic overturning the verital numerical diffusion denotes an amplifying mechanism.
Die Fusion von Membranen ist ein entscheidender Prozeß bei der Entwicklung von Zellen im Körper. Beispielsweise ist sie eine der Voraussetzungen bei der Befruchtung einer Eizelle durch ein Spermium oder für das Eindringen von Viren in eine Zelle. Membranfusion ist auch notwendig für den Stofftransport in die Zelle hinein oder aus ihr heraus. Die Membranfusion ist daher auch von praktischen Interesse auf den Gebieten der Pharmazeutik und des 'Bioengineering'. Oft muss eine Membran mit der infiziertin Zelle fusionieren, um ein Medikament an sein Zeil zu bringen. Deshalb ist ein Verständnis der Membranfusion von großem Interesse für die Entwicklung von gezielten und effizienten Methoden des 'drug delivery'. Dasselbe gilt für die gezielte Zufuhr von Genen bei der Gentherapie. Obwohl die Membranfusion schon vor nahezu 200 Jahren von dem deutschen Biologen und Mediziner Johannes Müller beobachtet wurde, liegt ein vollständiges Verständnis des Fusionsprozesses von Zellen und (Modell-) Membranen auch heute noch in weiter Ferne. Allerdings hat im letzten Jahrzehnt das Interesse für dieses Forschungsgebiet stark zugenommen. Wissenschaftler der unterschiedlichsten Disziplinen arbeiten daran, die Mechanismen der Membranfusion aufzudecken. Biologen untersuchen Proteine, die die Fusion auslösen, Chemiker entwickeln Moleküle, die die Fusion erleichtern, und Physiker versuchen die Antriebsmechanismen der Membranfusion zu verstehen. Neue Mikroskopietechniken und die hohe Rechenleistung moderner Computer helfen die molekulare und die makroskopische Welt der Membranfusion in einem Bild zusammenzufügen. Für unsere Untersuchungen haben wir Modellmembranen, die aus Lipiddoppelschichten bestehen, benutzt. Diese Membranen formen sogenannte Vesikel oder Liposomen, abgeschlossene Membrane, in denen eine bestimmte Menge an Flüssigkeit enthalten ist. Indem wir Rezeptoren in die Membran einbringen, schaffen wir funkionalisierte Vesikel, die sich differenzieren, kooperieren und selektiv reagieren können. Wir benutzen positiv geladene wasserlösliche Ionen, um Wechselwirkungen zwischen den Vesikeln zu vermitteln, und lassen die Rezeptoren und die Ionen den Fusionsprozess auslösen. Die Wechselwirkungen werden unter dem Mikroskop durch spezielle Mikromechanischn Gerätz Mikromechinerien kontrolliert. Mit Hilfe einer sehr schnellen digitale Bildaufnahmetechnik ist es uns gelungen, die Fusion unserer Modellmembranen aufzunehmen und in Echtzeit zu dokumentieren mit einer Auflösung von 50 µs. Unsere Messungen können vergleichen werden mit Computersimulationen des Fusionsprozesses. Diese Simulationen untersuchen Prozesse, die zwischen 0.1 und 1 Mikrosekunde dauern. Eine Herausforderung für die Zukunft wird es sein, die Lücke zwischen den in Experimenten (50µs) und den in Simulationen zugänglichen Zeitskalen von beiden Seiten her zu schließen.
It is known that the efficiency of organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs) is strongly influenced by the ’quality′ of the thin films [1]. On the basis of this conviction, the work presented in this thesis aimed to obtain a better understanding of the structure of organic thin films of general interest in the field of organic light emitting devices by using scanning probe microscopies (SPMs). A not yet reported crystal structure of quaterthiophene film grown on potassium hydrogen (KHP) is determined by optical measurements, a simulation program, diffraction at both normal incidence and grazing angle and AFM. The crystal cell is triclinic with parameters a = 0.721 nm, b = 0.632 nm, c = 0.956 nm and a = 91°, b = 91.4°, g = 91° [2]. The morphologies of four organic thin films deposited on gold are characterized by ultra high vacuum scanning tunneling microscopy (UHV-STM). Terraces in an hexanethiol monolayer, lamellar structures in an azobenzenethiol monolayer, rods in a a poly(paraphenylenevinylene) oligomer film and a granular morphology in an oxadiazole film are shown. The topographies of a series of poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene)/poly(styrenesulfonate) (PEDOT/PSS) films deposited on indium-tin oxide (ITO) and gold obtained from dispersions with PEDOT:PSS weight ratios of 1:20, 1:6 and 1:1 are investigated by AFM. It is demonstrated that the films show the same topography on gold and on ITO. It is shown that the PEDOT films eliminate the spike features of ITO. It is reported that PEDOT 1:20 and 1:6 appear indistinguishable between each other but different from PEDOT 1:1 (the most conductive). Coupling STM and I-d measurements, a not yet reported structural model of PEDOT 1:1 on gold is obtained [3]. In this model the surface presents grains and the bulk particles/domains rich in PEDOT embedded in a PEDOT-poor matrix. The equation of conductivity is derived. A STM investigation of four PEDOT films deposited on ITO obtained from dispersions with the same PEDOT:PSS weight ratio of 1:1 is carried out [4]. The films differ either for the presence of sorbitol or for a different synthetic route (and they present different conductivities). For the first time a quantitative and qualitative correlation between the nanometer-scale morphology of PEDOT films with and without sorbitol and their conductivity is established.
It has been known for several years that under certain conditions electrons can be confined within thin layers even if these layers consist of metal and are supported by a metal substrate. In photoelectron spectra, these layers show characteristic discrete energy levels and it has turned out that these lead to large effects like the oscillatory magnetic coupling technically exploited in modern hard disk reading heads. The current work asks in how far the concepts underlying quantization in two-dimensional films can be transferred to lower dimensionality. This problem is approached by a stepwise transition from two-dimensional layers to one-dimensional nanostructures. On the one hand, these nanostructures are represented by terraces on atomically stepped surfaces, on the other hand by atom chains which are deposited onto these terraces up to complete coverage by atomically thin nanostripes. Furthermore, self organization effects are used in order to arrive at perfectly one-dimensional atomic arrangements at surfaces. Angle-resolved photoemission is particularly suited as method of investigation because is reveals the behavior of the electrons in these nanostructures in dependence of the spacial direction which distinguishes it from, e. g., scanning tunneling microscopy. With this method intense and at times surprisingly large effects of one-dimensional quantization are observed for various exemplary systems, partly for the first time. The essential role of bandgaps in the substrate known from two-dimensional systems is confirmed for nanostructures. In addition, we reveal an ambiguity without precedent in two-dimensional layers between spacial confinement of electrons on the one side and superlattice effects on the other side as well as between effects caused by the sample and by the measurement process. The latter effects are huge and can dominate the photoelectron spectra. Finally, the effects of reduced dimensionality are studied in particular for the d electrons of manganese which are additionally affected by strong correlation effects. Surprising results are also obtained here. ---------------------------- Die Links zur jeweiligen Source der im Appendix beigefügten Veröffentlichungen befinden sich auf Seite 83 des Volltextes.
The topic of synchronization forms a link between nonlinear dynamics and neuroscience. On the one hand, neurobiological research has shown that the synchronization of neuronal activity is an essential aspect of the working principle of the brain. On the other hand, recent advances in the physical theory have led to the discovery of the phenomenon of phase synchronization. A method of data analysis that is motivated by this finding - phase synchronization analysis - has already been successfully applied to empirical data. The present doctoral thesis ties up to these converging lines of research. Its subject are methodical contributions to the further development of phase synchronization analysis, as well as its application to event-related potentials, a form of EEG data that is especially important in the cognitive sciences. The methodical contributions of this work consist firstly in a number of specialized statistical tests for a difference in the synchronization strength in two different states of a system of two oscillators. Secondly, in regard of the many-channel character of EEG data an approach to multivariate phase synchronization analysis is presented. For the empirical investigation of neuronal synchronization a classic experiment on language processing was replicated, comparing the effect of a semantic violation in a sentence context with that of the manipulation of physical stimulus properties (font color). Here phase synchronization analysis detects a decrease of global synchronization for the semantic violation as well as an increase for the physical manipulation. In the latter case, by means of the multivariate analysis the global synchronization effect can be traced back to an interaction of symmetrically located brain areas.<BR> The findings presented show that the method of phase synchronization analysis motivated by physics is able to provide a relevant contribution to the investigation of event-related potentials in the cognitive sciences.
In this thesis the magnetohydrodynamic jet formation and the effects of magnetic diffusion on the formation of axisymmetric protostellar jets have been investigated in three different simulation sets. The time-dependent numerical simulations have been performed, using the magnetohydrodynamic ZEUS-3D code.