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Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.
Arborified zeta values are defined as iterated series and integrals using the universal properties of rooted trees. This approach allows to study their convergence domain and to relate them to multiple zeta values. Generalisations to rooted trees of the stuffle and shuffle products are defined and studied. It is further shown that arborified zeta values are algebra morphisms for these new products on trees.
In this paper, we examine conditioning of the discretization of the Helmholtz problem. Although the discrete Helmholtz problem has been studied from different perspectives, to the best of our knowledge, there is no conditioning analysis for it. We aim to fill this gap in the literature. We propose a novel method in 1D to observe the near-zero eigenvalues of a symmetric indefinite matrix. Standard classification of ill-conditioning based on the matrix condition number is not true for the discrete Helmholtz problem. We relate the ill-conditioning of the discretization of the Helmholtz problem with the condition number of the matrix. We carry out analytical conditioning analysis in 1D and extend our observations to 2D with numerical observations. We examine several discretizations. We find different regions in which the condition number of the problem shows different characteristics. We also explain the general behavior of the solutions in these regions.
The study of the Cauchy problem for solutions of the heat equation in a cylindrical domain with data on the lateral surface by the Fourier method raises the problem of calculating the inverse Laplace transform of the entire function cos root z. This problem has no solution in the standard theory of the Laplace transform. We give an explicit formula for the inverse Laplace transform of cos root z using the theory of analytic functionals. This solution suits well to efficiently develop the regularization of solutions to Cauchy problems for parabolic equations with data on noncharacteristic surfaces.
Process-oriented theories of cognition must be evaluated against time-ordered observations. Here we present a representative example for data assimilation of the SWIFT model, a dynamical model of the control of fixation positions and fixation durations during natural reading of single sentences. First, we develop and test an approximate likelihood function of the model, which is a combination of a spatial, pseudo-marginal likelihood and a temporal likelihood obtained by probability density approximation Second, we implement a Bayesian approach to parameter inference using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. Our results indicate that model parameters can be estimated reliably for individual subjects. We conclude that approximative Bayesian inference represents a considerable step forward for computational models of eye-movement control, where modeling of individual data on the basis of process-based dynamic models has not been possible so far.
We study those nonlinear partial differential equations which appear as Euler-Lagrange equations of variational problems. On defining weak boundary values of solutions to such equations we initiate the theory of Lagrangian boundary value problems in spaces of appropriate smoothness. We also analyse if the concept of mapping degree of current importance applies to Lagrangian problems.
Inferring causal relations from observational time series data is a key problem across science and engineering whenever experimental interventions are infeasible or unethical. Increasing data availability over the past few decades has spurred the development of a plethora of causal discovery methods, each addressing particular challenges of this difficult task. In this paper, we focus on an important challenge that is at the core of time series causal discovery: regime-dependent causal relations. Often dynamical systems feature transitions depending on some, often persistent, unobserved background regime, and different regimes may exhibit different causal relations. Here, we assume a persistent and discrete regime variable leading to a finite number of regimes within which we may assume stationary causal relations. To detect regime-dependent causal relations, we combine the conditional independence-based PCMCI method [based on a condition-selection step (PC) followed by the momentary conditional independence (MCI) test] with a regime learning optimization approach. PCMCI allows for causal discovery from high-dimensional and highly correlated time series. Our method, Regime-PCMCI, is evaluated on a number of numerical experiments demonstrating that it can distinguish regimes with different causal directions, time lags, and sign of causal links, as well as changes in the variables' autocorrelation. Furthermore, Regime-PCMCI is employed to observations of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian rainfall, demonstrating skill also in real-world datasets.
According to Radzikowski’s celebrated results, bisolutions of a wave operator on a globally hyperbolic spacetime are of the Hadamard form iff they are given by a linear combination of distinguished parametrices i2(G˜aF−G˜F+G˜A−G˜R) in the sense of Duistermaat and Hörmander [Acta Math. 128, 183–269 (1972)] and Radzikowski [Commun. Math. Phys. 179, 529 (1996)]. Inspired by the construction of the corresponding advanced and retarded Green operator GA, GR as done by Bär, Ginoux, and Pfäffle {Wave Equations on Lorentzian Manifolds and Quantization [European Mathematical Society (EMS), Zürich, 2007]}, we construct the remaining two Green operators GF, GaF locally in terms of Hadamard series. Afterward, we provide the global construction of i2(G˜aF−G˜F), which relies on new techniques such as a well-posed Cauchy problem for bisolutions and a patching argument using Čech cohomology. This leads to global bisolutions of the Hadamard form, each of which can be chosen to be a Hadamard two-point-function, i.e., the smooth part can be adapted such that, additionally, the symmetry and the positivity condition are exactly satisfied.
We adapt the Faddeev-LeVerrier algorithm for the computation of characteristic polynomials to the computation of the Pfaffian of a skew-symmetric matrix. This yields a very simple, easy to implement and parallelize algorithm of computational cost O(n(beta+1)) where nis the size of the matrix and O(n(beta)) is the cost of multiplying n x n-matrices, beta is an element of [2, 2.37286). We compare its performance to that of other algorithms and show how it can be used to compute the Euler form of a Riemannian manifold using computer algebra.
We study the asymptotics of solutions to the Dirichlet problem in a domain X subset of R3 whose boundary contains a singular point O. In a small neighborhood of this point, the domain has the form {z > root x(2) + y(4)}, i.e., the origin is a nonsymmetric conical point at the boundary. So far, the behavior of solutions to elliptic boundary-value problems has not been studied sufficiently in the case of nonsymmetric singular points. This problem was posed by V.A. Kondrat'ev in 2000. We establish a complete asymptotic expansion of solutions near the singular point.
Matching dependencies (MDs) are data profiling results that are often used for data integration, data cleaning, and entity matching. They are a generalization of functional dependencies (FDs) matching similar rather than same elements. As their discovery is very difficult, existing profiling algorithms find either only small subsets of all MDs or their scope is limited to only small datasets.
We focus on the efficient discovery of all interesting MDs in real-world datasets. For this purpose, we propose HyMD, a novel MD discovery algorithm that finds all minimal, non-trivial MDs within given similarity boundaries. The algorithm extracts the exact similarity thresholds for the individual MDs from the data instead of using predefined similarity thresholds. For this reason, it is the first approach to solve the MD discovery problem in an exact and truly complete way. If needed, the algorithm can, however, enforce certain properties on the reported MDs, such as disjointness and minimum support, to focus the discovery on such results that are actually required by downstream use cases. HyMD is technically a hybrid approach that combines the two most popular dependency discovery strategies in related work: lattice traversal and inference from record pairs. Despite the additional effort of finding exact similarity thresholds for all MD candidates, the algorithm is still able to efficiently process large datasets, e.g., datasets larger than 3 GB.
Partial clones
(2020)
A set C of operations defined on a nonempty set A is said to be a clone if C is closed under composition of operations and contains all projection mappings. The concept of a clone belongs to the algebraic main concepts and has important applications in Computer Science. A clone can also be regarded as a many-sorted algebra where the sorts are the n-ary operations defined on set A for all natural numbers n >= 1 and the operations are the so-called superposition operations S-m(n) for natural numbers m, n >= 1 and the projection operations as nullary operations. Clones generalize monoids of transformations defined on set A and satisfy three clone axioms. The most important axiom is the superassociative law, a generalization of the associative law. If the superposition operations are partial, i.e. not everywhere defined, instead of the many-sorted clone algebra, one obtains partial many-sorted algebras, the partial clones. Linear terms, linear tree languages or linear formulas form partial clones. In this paper, we give a survey on partial clones and their properties.
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) amplitude measurements from spaceborne sensors are sensitive to surface roughness conditions near their radar wavelength. These backscatter signals are often exploited to assess the roughness of plowed agricultural fields and water surfaces, and less so to complex, heterogeneous geological surfaces. The bedload of mixed sand- and gravel-bed rivers can be considered a mixture of smooth (compacted sand) and rough (gravel) surfaces. Here, we assess backscatter gradients over a large high-mountain alluvial river in the eastern Central Andes with aerially exposed sand and gravel bedload using X-band TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, C-band Sentinel-1, and L-band ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 radar scenes. In a first step, we present theory and hypotheses regarding radar response to an alluvial channel bed. We test our hypotheses by comparing backscatter responses over vegetation-free endmember surfaces from inside and outside of the active channel-bed area. We then develop methods to extract smoothed backscatter gradients downstream along the channel using kernel density estimates. In a final step, the local variability of sand-dominated patches is analyzed using Fourier frequency analysis, by fitting stretched-exponential and power-law regression models to the 2-D power spectrum of backscatter amplitude. We find a large range in backscatter depending on the heterogeneity of contiguous smooth- and rough-patches of bedload material. The SAR amplitude signal responds primarily to the fraction of smooth-sand bedload, but is further modified by gravel elements. The sensitivity to gravel is more apparent in longer wavelength L-band radar, whereas C- and X-band is sensitive only to sand variability. Because the spatial extent of smooth sand patches in our study area is typically< 50 m, only higher resolution sensors (e.g., TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X) are useful for power spectrum analysis. Our results show the potential for mapping sand-gravel transitions and local geomorphic complexity in alluvial rivers with aerially exposed bedload using SAR amplitude.
Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics
(2021)
Newly emerging pandemics like COVID-19 call for predictive models to implement precisely tuned responses to limit their deep impact on society. Standard epidemic models provide a theoretically well-founded dynamical description of disease incidence. For COVID-19 with infectiousness peaking before and at symptom onset, the SEIR model explains the hidden build-up of exposed individuals which creates challenges for containment strategies. However, spatial heterogeneity raises questions about the adequacy of modeling epidemic outbreaks on the level of a whole country. Here, we show that by applying sequential data assimilation to the stochastic SEIR epidemic model, we can capture the dynamic behavior of outbreaks on a regional level. Regional modeling, with relatively low numbers of infected and demographic noise, accounts for both spatial heterogeneity and stochasticity. Based on adapted models, short-term predictions can be achieved. Thus, with the help of these sequential data assimilation methods, more realistic epidemic models are within reach.
Tikhonov regularization with oversmoothing penalty for nonlinear statistical inverse problems
(2020)
In this paper, we consider the nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem with noisy data in the statistical learning setting. The Tikhonov regularization scheme in Hilbert scales is considered to reconstruct the estimator from the random noisy data. In this statistical learning setting, we derive the rates of convergence for the regularized solution under certain assumptions on the nonlinear forward operator and the prior assumptions. We discuss estimates of the reconstruction error using the approach of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
Large real-world networks typically follow a power-law degree distribution. To study such networks, numerous random graph models have been proposed. However, real-world networks are not drawn at random. Therefore, Brach et al. (27th symposium on discrete algorithms (SODA), pp 1306-1325, 2016) introduced two natural deterministic conditions: (1) a power-law upper bound on the degree distribution (PLB-U) and (2) power-law neighborhoods, that is, the degree distribution of neighbors of each vertex is also upper bounded by a power law (PLB-N). They showed that many real-world networks satisfy both properties and exploit them to design faster algorithms for a number of classical graph problems. We complement their work by showing that some well-studied random graph models exhibit both of the mentioned PLB properties. PLB-U and PLB-N hold with high probability for Chung-Lu Random Graphs and Geometric Inhomogeneous Random Graphs and almost surely for Hyperbolic Random Graphs. As a consequence, all results of Brach et al. also hold with high probability or almost surely for those random graph classes. In the second part we study three classical NP-hard optimization problems on PLB networks. It is known that on general graphs with maximum degree Delta, a greedy algorithm, which chooses nodes in the order of their degree, only achieves a Omega (ln Delta)-approximation forMinimum Vertex Cover and Minimum Dominating Set, and a Omega(Delta)-approximation forMaximum Independent Set. We prove that the PLB-U property with beta>2 suffices for the greedy approach to achieve a constant-factor approximation for all three problems. We also show that these problems are APX-hard even if PLB-U, PLB-N, and an additional power-law lower bound on the degree distribution hold. Hence, a PTAS cannot be expected unless P = NP. Furthermore, we prove that all three problems are in MAX SNP if the PLB-U property holds.
Let D be a division ring of fractions of a crossed product F[G, eta, alpha], where F is a skew field and G is a group with Conradian left-order <=. For D we introduce the notion of freeness with respect to <= and show that D is free in this sense if and only if D can canonically be embedded into the endomorphism ring of the right F-vector space F((G)) of all formal power series in G over F with respect to <=. From this we obtain that all division rings of fractions of F[G, eta, alpha] which are free with respect to at least one Conradian left-order of G are isomorphic and that they are free with respect to any Conradian left-order of G. Moreover, F[G, eta, alpha] possesses a division ring of fraction which is free in this sense if and only if the rational closure of F[G, eta, alpha] in the endomorphism ring of the corresponding right F-vector space F((G)) is a skew field.
In dynamic decision problems, it is challenging to find the right balance between maximizing expected rewards and minimizing risks. In this paper, we consider NP-hard mean-variance (MV) optimization problems in Markov decision processes with a finite time horizon. We present a heuristic approach to solve MV problems, which is based on state-dependent risk aversion and efficient dynamic programming techniques. Our approach can also be applied to mean-semivariance (MSV) problems, which particularly focus on the downside risk. We demonstrate the applicability and the effectiveness of our heuristic for dynamic pricing applications. Using reproducible examples, we show that our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art benchmark models for MV and MSV problems while also providing competitive runtimes. Further, compared to models based on constant risk levels, we find that state-dependent risk aversion allows to more effectively intervene in case sales processes deviate from their planned paths. Our concepts are domain independent, easy to implement and of low computational complexity.
In the semiclassical limit (h) over bar -> 0, we analyze a class of self-adjoint Schrodinger operators H-(h) over bar = (h) over bar L-2 + (h) over barW + V center dot id(E) acting on sections of a vector bundle E over an oriented Riemannian manifold M where L is a Laplace type operator, W is an endomorphism field and the potential energy V has non-degenerate minima at a finite number of points m(1),... m(r) is an element of M, called potential wells. Using quasimodes of WKB-type near m(j) for eigenfunctions associated with the low lying eigenvalues of H-(h) over bar, we analyze the tunneling effect, i.e. the splitting between low lying eigenvalues, which e.g. arises in certain symmetric configurations. Technically, we treat the coupling between different potential wells by an interaction matrix and we consider the case of a single minimal geodesic (with respect to the associated Agmon metric) connecting two potential wells and the case of a submanifold of minimal geodesics of dimension l + 1. This dimension l determines the polynomial prefactor for exponentially small eigenvalue splitting.
We consider a perturbation of the de Rham complex on a compact manifold with boundary. This perturbation goes beyond the framework of complexes, and so cohomology does not apply to it. On the other hand, its curvature is "small", hence there is a natural way to introduce an Euler characteristic and develop a Lefschetz theory for the perturbation. This work is intended as an attempt to develop a cohomology theory for arbitrary sequences of linear mappings.
We study the Cauchy problem for a nonlinear elliptic equation with data on a piece S of the boundary surface partial derivative X. By the Cauchy problem is meant any boundary value problem for an unknown function u in a domain X with the property that the data on S, if combined with the differential equations in X, allows one to determine all derivatives of u on S by means of functional equations. In the case of real analytic data of the Cauchy problem, the existence of a local solution near S is guaranteed by the Cauchy-Kovalevskaya theorem. We discuss a variational setting of the Cauchy problem which always possesses a generalized solution.
In this short survey article, we showcase a number of non-trivial geometric problems that have recently been resolved by marrying methods from functional calculus and real-variable harmonic analysis. We give a brief description of these methods as well as their interplay. This is a succinct survey that hopes to inspire geometers and analysts alike to study these methods so that they can be further developed to be potentially applied to a broader range of questions.
Classic inversion methods adjust a model with a predefined number of parameters to the observed data. With transdimensional inversion algorithms such as the reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rjMCMC), it is possible to vary this number during the inversion and to interpret the observations in a more flexible way. Geoscience imaging applications use this behaviour to automatically adjust model resolution to the inhomogeneities of the investigated system, while keeping the model parameters on an optimal level. The rjMCMC algorithm produces an ensemble as result, a set of model realizations, which together represent the posterior probability distribution of the investigated problem. The realizations are evolved via sequential updates from a randomly chosen initial solution and converge toward the target posterior distribution of the inverse problem. Up to a point in the chain, the realizations may be strongly biased by the initial model, and must be discarded from the final ensemble. With convergence assessment techniques, this point in the chain can be identified. Transdimensional MCMC methods produce ensembles that are not suitable for classic convergence assessment techniques because of the changes in parameter numbers. To overcome this hurdle, three solutions are introduced to convert model realizations to a common dimensionality while maintaining the statistical characteristics of the ensemble. A scalar, a vector and a matrix representation for models is presented, inferred from tomographic subsurface investigations, and three classic convergence assessment techniques are applied on them. It is shown that appropriately chosen scalar conversions of the models could retain similar statistical ensemble properties as geologic projections created by rasterization.
Biological invasions may result from multiple introductions, which might compensate for reduced gene pools caused by bottleneck events, but could also dilute adaptive processes. A previous common-garden experiment showed heritable latitudinal clines in fitness-related traits in the invasive goldenrod Solidago canadensis in Central Europe. These latitudinal clines remained stable even in plants chemically treated with zebularine to reduce epigenetic variation. However, despite the heritability of traits investigated, genetic isolation-by-distance was non-significant. Utilizing the same specimens, we applied a molecular analysis of (epi)genetic differentiation with standard and methylation-sensitive (MSAP) AFLPs. We tested whether this variation was spatially structured among populations and whether zebularine had altered epigenetic variation. Additionally, we used genome scans to mine for putative outlier loci susceptible to selection processes in the invaded range. Despite the absence of isolation-by-distance, we found spatial genetic neighborhoods among populations and two AFLP clusters differentiating northern and southern Solidago populations. Genetic and epigenetic diversity were significantly correlated, but not linked to phenotypic variation. Hence, no spatial epigenetic patterns were detected along the latitudinal gradient sampled. Applying genome-scan approaches (BAYESCAN, BAYESCENV, RDA, and LFMM), we found 51 genetic and epigenetic loci putatively responding to selection. One of these genetic loci was significantly more frequent in populations at the northern range. Also, one epigenetic locus was more frequent in populations in the southern range, but this pattern was lost under zebularine treatment. Our results point to some genetic, but not epigenetic adaptation processes along a large-scale latitudinal gradient of S. canadensis in its invasive range.
Aim Quantitative and kinetic insights into the drug exposure-disease response relationship might enhance our knowledge on loss of response and support more effective monitoring of inflammatory activity by biomarkers in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treated with infliximab (IFX). This study aimed to derive recommendations for dose adjustment and treatment optimisation based on mechanistic characterisation of the relationship between IFX serum concentration and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration. <br /> Methods Data from an investigator-initiated trial included 121 patients with IBD during IFX maintenance treatment. Serum concentrations of IFX, antidrug antibodies (ADA), CRP, and disease-related covariates were determined at the mid-term and end of a dosing interval. Data were analysed using a pharmacometric nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach. An IFX exposure-CRP model was generated and applied to evaluate dosing regimens to achieve CRP remission. <br /> Results The generated quantitative model showed that IFX has the potential to inhibit up to 72% (9% relative standard error [RSE]) of CRP synthesis in a patient. IFX concentration leading to 90% of the maximum CRP synthesis inhibition was 18.4 mu g/mL (43% RSE). Presence of ADA was the most influential factor on IFX exposure. With standard dosing strategy, >= 55% of ADA+ patients experienced CRP nonremission. Shortening the dosing interval and co-therapy with immunomodulators were found to be the most beneficial strategies to maintain CRP remission. <br /> Conclusions With the generated model we could for the first time establish a robust relationship between IFX exposure and CRP synthesis inhibition, which could be utilised for treatment optimisation in IBD patients.
Thermophysical modelling and parameter estimation of small solar system bodies via data assimilation
(2020)
Deriving thermophysical properties such as thermal inertia from thermal infrared observations provides useful insights into the structure of the surface material on planetary bodies. The estimation of these properties is usually done by fitting temperature variations calculated by thermophysical models to infrared observations. For multiple free model parameters, traditional methods such as least-squares fitting or Markov chain Monte Carlo methods become computationally too expensive. Consequently, the simultaneous estimation of several thermophysical parameters, together with their corresponding uncertainties and correlations, is often not computationally feasible and the analysis is usually reduced to fitting one or two parameters. Data assimilation (DA) methods have been shown to be robust while sufficiently accurate and computationally affordable even for a large number of parameters. This paper will introduce a standard sequential DA method, the ensemble square root filter, for thermophysical modelling of asteroid surfaces. This method is used to re-analyse infrared observations of the MARA instrument, which measured the diurnal temperature variation of a single boulder on the surface of near-Earth asteroid (162173) Ryugu. The thermal inertia is estimated to be 295 +/- 18 Jm(-2) K-1 s(-1/2), while all five free parameters of the initial analysis are varied and estimated simultaneously. Based on this thermal inertia estimate the thermal conductivity of the boulder is estimated to be between 0.07 and 0.12,Wm(-1) K-1 and the porosity to be between 0.30 and 0.52. For the first time in thermophysical parameter derivation, correlations and uncertainties of all free model parameters are incorporated in the estimation procedure that is more than 5000 times more efficient than a comparable parameter sweep.
In this paper, using an algorithm based on the retrospective rejection sampling scheme introduced in [A. Beskos, O. Papaspiliopoulos, and G. O. Roberts,Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab., 10 (2008), pp. 85-104] and [P. Etore and M. Martinez, ESAIM Probab.Stat., 18 (2014), pp. 686-702], we propose an exact simulation of a Brownian di ff usion whose drift admits several jumps. We treat explicitly and extensively the case of two jumps, providing numerical simulations. Our main contribution is to manage the technical di ffi culty due to the presence of t w o jumps thanks to a new explicit expression of the transition density of the skew Brownian motion with two semipermeable barriers and a constant drift.
Die Erweiterung des natürlichen Zahlbereichs um die positiven Bruchzahlen und die negativen ganzen Zahlen geht für Schülerinnen und Schüler mit großen gedanklichen Hürden und einem Umbruch bis dahin aufgebauter Grundvorstellungen einher. Diese Masterarbeit trägt wesentliche Veränderungen auf der Vorstellungs- und Darstellungsebene für beide Zahlbereiche zusammen und setzt sich mit den kognitiven Herausforderungen für Lernende auseinander. Auf der Grundlage einer Diskussion traditioneller sowie alternativer Lehrgänge der Zahlbereichserweiterung wird eine Unterrichtskonzeption für den Mathematikunterricht entwickelt, die eine parallele Einführung der Bruchzahlen und der negativen Zahlen vorschlägt. Die Empfehlungen der Unterrichtkonzeption erstrecken sich über den Zeitraum von der ersten bis zur siebten Klassenstufe, was der behutsamen Weiterentwicklung und Modifikation des Zahlbegriffs viel Zeit einräumt, und enthalten auch didaktische Überlegungen sowie konkrete Hinweise zu möglichen Aufgabenformaten.
Purpose This review provides an overview of the current challenges in oral targeted antineoplastic drug (OAD) dosing and outlines the unexploited value of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Factors influencing the pharmacokinetic exposure in OAD therapy are depicted together with an overview of different TDM approaches. Finally, current evidence for TDM for all approved OADs is reviewed. Methods A comprehensive literature search (covering literature published until April 2020), including primary and secondary scientific literature on pharmacokinetics and dose individualisation strategies for OADs, together with US FDA Clinical Pharmacology and Biopharmaceutics Reviews and the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use European Public Assessment Reports was conducted. Results OADs are highly potent drugs, which have substantially changed treatment options for cancer patients. Nevertheless, high pharmacokinetic variability and low treatment adherence are risk factors for treatment failure. TDM is a powerful tool to individualise drug dosing, ensure drug concentrations within the therapeutic window and increase treatment success rates. After reviewing the literature for 71 approved OADs, we show that exposure-response and/or exposure-toxicity relationships have been established for the majority. Moreover, TDM has been proven to be feasible for individualised dosing of abiraterone, everolimus, imatinib, pazopanib, sunitinib and tamoxifen in prospective studies. There is a lack of experience in how to best implement TDM as part of clinical routine in OAD cancer therapy. Conclusion Sub-therapeutic concentrations and severe adverse events are current challenges in OAD treatment, which can both be addressed by the application of TDM-guided dosing, ensuring concentrations within the therapeutic window.
Flood loss modeling is a central component of flood risk analysis. Conventionally, this involves univariable and deterministic stage-damage functions. Recent advancements in the field promote the use of multivariable and probabilistic loss models, which consider variables beyond inundation depth and account for prediction uncertainty. Although companies contribute significantly to total loss figures, novel modeling approaches for companies are lacking. Scarce data and the heterogeneity among companies impede the development of company flood loss models. We present three multivariable flood loss models for companies from the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sector that intrinsically quantify prediction uncertainty. Based on object-level loss data (n = 1,306), we comparatively evaluate the predictive capacity of Bayesian networks, Bayesian regression, and random forest in relation to deterministic and probabilistic stage-damage functions, serving as benchmarks. The company loss data stem from four postevent surveys in Germany between 2002 and 2013 and include information on flood intensity, company characteristics, emergency response, private precaution, and resulting loss to building, equipment, and goods and stock. We find that the multivariable probabilistic models successfully identify and reproduce essential relationships of flood damage processes in the data. The assessment of model skill focuses on the precision of the probabilistic predictions and reveals that the candidate models outperform the stage-damage functions, while differences among the proposed models are negligible. Although the combination of multivariable and probabilistic loss estimation improves predictive accuracy over the entire data set, wide predictive distributions stress the necessity for the quantification of uncertainty.
Author summary <br /> Switching between local and global attention is a general strategy in human information processing. We investigate whether this strategy is a viable approach to model sequences of fixations generated by a human observer in a free viewing task with natural scenes. Variants of the basic model are used to predict the experimental data based on Bayesian inference. Results indicate a high predictive power for both aggregated data and individual differences across observers. The combination of a novel model with state-of-the-art Bayesian methods lends support to our two-state model using local and global internal attention states for controlling eye movements. <br /> Understanding the decision process underlying gaze control is an important question in cognitive neuroscience with applications in diverse fields ranging from psychology to computer vision. The decision for choosing an upcoming saccade target can be framed as a selection process between two states: Should the observer further inspect the information near the current gaze position (local attention) or continue with exploration of other patches of the given scene (global attention)? Here we propose and investigate a mathematical model motivated by switching between these two attentional states during scene viewing. The model is derived from a minimal set of assumptions that generates realistic eye movement behavior. We implemented a Bayesian approach for model parameter inference based on the model's likelihood function. In order to simplify the inference, we applied data augmentation methods that allowed the use of conjugate priors and the construction of an efficient Gibbs sampler. This approach turned out to be numerically efficient and permitted fitting interindividual differences in saccade statistics. Thus, the main contribution of our modeling approach is two-fold; first, we propose a new model for saccade generation in scene viewing. Second, we demonstrate the use of novel methods from Bayesian inference in the field of scan path modeling.
The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is the most commonly used method for predicting spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, large uncertainties are always associated with the calculation of Coulomb stress change. The uncertainties mainly arise due to nonunique slip inversions and unknown receiver faults; especially for the latter, results are highly dependent on the choice of the assumed receiver mechanism. Based on binary tests (aftershocks yes/no), recent studies suggest that alternative stress quantities, a distance-slip probabilistic model as well as deep neural network (DNN) approaches, all are superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanism. To challenge this conclusion, which might have large implications, we use 289 slip inversions from SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered half-space and variable receiver mechanisms. We also analyze the effect of the magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration to verify the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the ranking of stress metrics. The observations suggest that introducing a layered half-space does not improve the stress maps and ROC curves. However, results significantly improve for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods but without changing the ranking. We also go beyond binary testing and apply alternative statistics to test the ability to estimate aftershock numbers, which confirm that simple stress metrics perform better than the classic Coulomb failure stress calculations and are also better than the distance-slip probabilistic model.
About two decades ago it was discovered that systems of nonlocally coupled oscillators can exhibit unusual symmetry-breaking patterns composed of coherent and incoherent regions. Since then such patterns, called chimera states, have been the subject of intensive study but mostly in the stationary case when the coarse-grained system dynamics remains unchanged over time. Nonstationary coherence-incoherence patterns, in particular periodically breathing chimera states, were also reported, however not investigated systematically because of their complexity. In this paper we suggest a semi-analytic solution to the above problem providing a mathematical framework for the analysis of breathing chimera states in a ring of nonlocally coupled phase oscillators. Our approach relies on the consideration of an integro-differential equation describing the long-term coarse-grained dynamics of the oscillator system. For this equation we specify a class of solutions relevant to breathing chimera states. We derive a self-consistency equation for these solutions and carry out their stability analysis. We show that our approach correctly predicts macroscopic features of breathing chimera states. Moreover, we point out its potential application to other models which can be studied using the Ott-Antonsen reduction technique.
Particle filters (also called sequential Monte Carlo methods) are widely used for state and parameter estimation problems in the context of nonlinear evolution equations. The recently proposed ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF) [S. Reich, SIAM T. Sci. Comput., 35, (2013), pp. A2013-A2014[ replaces the resampling step of a standard particle filter by a linear transformation which allows for a hybridization of particle filters with ensemble Kalman filters and renders the resulting hybrid filters applicable to spatially extended systems. However, the linear transformation step is computationally expensive and leads to an underestimation of the ensemble spread for small and moderate ensemble sizes. Here we address both of these shortcomings by developing second order accurate extensions of the ETPF. These extensions allow one in particular to replace the exact solution of a linear transport problem by its Sinkhorn approximation. It is also demonstrated that the nonlinear ensemble transform filter arises as a special case of our general framework. We illustrate the performance of the second-order accurate filters for the chaotic Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models and a dynamic scene-viewing model. The numerical results for the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models demonstrate that significant accuracy improvements can be achieved in comparison to a standard ensemble Kalman filter and the ETPF for small to moderate ensemble sizes. The numerical results for the scene-viewing model reveal, on the other hand, that second-order corrections can lead to statistically inconsistent samples from the posterior parameter distribution.
Understanding the macroscopic behavior of dynamical systems is an important tool to unravel transport mechanisms in complex flows. A decomposition of the state space into coherent sets is a popular way to reveal this essential macroscopic evolution. To compute coherent sets from an aperiodic time-dependent dynamical system we consider the relevant transfer operators and their infinitesimal generators on an augmented space-time manifold. This space-time generator approach avoids trajectory integration and creates a convenient linearization of the aperiodic evolution. This linearization can be further exploited to create a simple and effective spectral optimization methodology for diminishing or enhancing coherence. We obtain explicit solutions for these optimization problems using Lagrange multipliers and illustrate this technique by increasing and decreasing mixing of spatial regions through small velocity field perturbations.
We propose a computational method (with acronym ALDI) for sampling from a given target distribution based on first-order (overdamped) Langevin dynamics which satisfies the property of affine invariance. The central idea of ALDI is to run an ensemble of particles with their empirical covariance serving as a preconditioner for their underlying Langevin dynamics. ALDI does not require taking the inverse or square root of the empirical covariance matrix, which enables application to high-dimensional sampling problems. The theoretical properties of ALDI are studied in terms of nondegeneracy and ergodicity. Furthermore, we study its connections to diffusion on Riemannian manifolds and Wasserstein gradient flows. Bayesian inference serves as a main application area for ALDI. In case of a forward problem with additive Gaussian measurement errors, ALDI allows for a gradient-free approximation in the spirit of the ensemble Kalman filter. A computational comparison between gradient-free and gradient-based ALDI is provided for a PDE constrained Bayesian inverse problem.
The IGRF offers an important incentive for testing algorithms predicting the Earth's magnetic field changes, known as secular variation (SV), in a 5-year range. Here, we present a SV candidate model for the 13th IGRF that stems from a sequential ensemble data assimilation approach (EnKF). The ensemble consists of a number of parallel-running 3D-dynamo simulations. The assimilated data are geomagnetic field snapshots covering the years 1840 to 2000 from the COV-OBS.x1 model and for 2001 to 2020 from the Kalmag model. A spectral covariance localization method, considering the couplings between spherical harmonics of the same equatorial symmetry and same azimuthal wave number, allows decreasing the ensemble size to about a 100 while maintaining the stability of the assimilation. The quality of 5-year predictions is tested for the past two decades. These tests show that the assimilation scheme is able to reconstruct the overall SV evolution. They also suggest that a better 5-year forecast is obtained keeping the SV constant compared to the dynamically evolving SV. However, the quality of the dynamical forecast steadily improves over the full assimilation window (180 years). We therefore propose the instantaneous SV estimate for 2020 from our assimilation as a candidate model for the IGRF-13. The ensemble approach provides uncertainty estimates, which closely match the residual differences with respect to the IGRF-13. Longer term predictions for the evolution of the main magnetic field features over a 50-year range are also presented. We observe the further decrease of the axial dipole at a mean rate of 8 nT/year as well as a deepening and broadening of the South Atlantic Anomaly. The magnetic dip poles are seen to approach an eccentric dipole configuration.
E-commerce marketplaces are highly dynamic with constant competition. While this competition is challenging for many merchants, it also provides plenty of opportunities, e.g., by allowing them to automatically adjust prices in order to react to changing market situations. For practitioners however, testing automated pricing strategies is time-consuming and potentially hazardously when done in production. Researchers, on the other side, struggle to study how pricing strategies interact under heavy competition. As a consequence, we built an open continuous time framework to simulate dynamic pricing competition called Price Wars. The microservice-based architecture provides a scalable platform for large competitions with dozens of merchants and a large random stream of consumers. Our platform stores each event in a distributed log. This allows to provide different performance measures enabling users to compare profit and revenue of various repricing strategies in real-time. For researchers, price trajectories are shown which ease evaluating mutual price reactions of competing strategies. Furthermore, merchants can access historical marketplace data and apply machine learning. By providing a set of customizable, artificial merchants, users can easily simulate both simple rule-based strategies as well as sophisticated data-driven strategies using demand learning to optimize their pricing strategies.
When trying to extend the Hodge theory for elliptic complexes on compact closed manifolds to the case of compact manifolds with boundary one is led to a boundary value problem for the Laplacian of the complex which is usually referred to as Neumann problem. We study the Neumann problem for a larger class of sequences of differential operators on a compact manifold with boundary. These are sequences of small curvature, i.e., bearing the property that the composition of any two neighbouring operators has order less than two.
Subdividing space through interfaces leads to many space partitions that are relevant to soft matter self-assembly. Prominent examples include cellular media, e.g. soap froths, which are bubbles of air separated by interfaces of soap and water, but also more complex partitions such as bicontinuous minimal surfaces.
Using computer simulations, this thesis analyses soft matter systems in terms of the relationship between the physical forces between the system's constituents and the structure of the resulting interfaces or partitions. The focus is on two systems, copolymeric self-assembly and the so-called Quantizer problem, where the driving force of structure formation, the minimisation of the free-energy, is an interplay of surface area minimisation and stretching contributions, favouring cells of uniform thickness.
In the first part of the thesis we address copolymeric phase formation with sharp interfaces. We analyse a columnar copolymer system "forced" to assemble on a spherical surface, where the perfect solution, the hexagonal tiling, is topologically prohibited. For a system of three-armed copolymers, the resulting structure is described by solutions of the so-called Thomson problem, the search of minimal energy configurations of repelling charges on a sphere. We find three intertwined Thomson problem solutions on a single sphere, occurring at a probability depending on the radius of the substrate.
We then investigate the formation of amorphous and crystalline structures in the Quantizer system, a particulate model with an energy functional without surface tension that favours spherical cells of equal size. We find that quasi-static equilibrium cooling allows the Quantizer system to crystallise into a BCC ground state, whereas quenching and non-equilibrium cooling, i.e. cooling at slower rates then quenching, leads to an approximately hyperuniform, amorphous state. The assumed universality of the latter, i.e. independence of energy minimisation method or initial configuration, is strengthened by our results. We expand the Quantizer system by introducing interface tension, creating a model that we find to mimic polymeric micelle systems: An order-disorder phase transition is observed with a stable Frank-Caspar phase.
The second part considers bicontinuous partitions of space into two network-like domains, and introduces an open-source tool for the identification of structures in electron microscopy images. We expand a method of matching experimentally accessible projections with computed projections of potential structures, introduced by Deng and Mieczkowski (1998). The computed structures are modelled using nodal representations of constant-mean-curvature surfaces. A case study conducted on etioplast cell membranes in chloroplast precursors establishes the double Diamond surface structure to be dominant in these plant cells. We automate the matching process employing deep-learning methods, which manage to identify structures with excellent accuracy.
We construct marked Gibbs point processes in R-d under quite general assumptions. Firstly, we allow for interaction functionals that may be unbounded and whose range is not assumed to be uniformly bounded. Indeed, our typical interaction admits an a.s. finite but random range. Secondly, the random marks-attached to the locations in R-d-belong to a general normed space G. They are not bounded, but their law should admit a super-exponential moment. The approach used here relies on the so-called entropy method and large-deviation tools in order to prove tightness of a family of finite-volume Gibbs point processes. An application to infinite-dimensional interacting diffusions is also presented.
The geomagnetic main field is vital for live on Earth, as it shields our habitat against the solar wind and cosmic rays. It is generated by the geodynamo in the Earth’s outer core and has a rich dynamic on various timescales. Global models of the field are used to study the interaction of the field and incoming charged particles, but also to infer core dynamics and to feed numerical simulations of the geodynamo. Modern satellite missions, such as the SWARM or the CHAMP mission, support high resolution reconstructions of the global field. From the 19 th century on, a global network of magnetic observatories has been established. It is growing ever since and global models can be constructed from the data it provides. Geomagnetic field models that extend further back in time rely on indirect observations of the field, i.e. thermoremanent records such as burnt clay or volcanic rocks and sediment records from lakes and seas. These indirect records come with (partially very large) uncertainties, introduced by the complex measurement methods and the dating procedure.
Focusing on thermoremanent records only, the aim of this thesis is the development of a new modeling strategy for the global geomagnetic field during the Holocene, which takes the uncertainties into account and produces realistic estimates of the reliability of the model. This aim is approached by first considering snapshot models, in order to address the irregular spatial distribution of the records and the non-linear relation of the indirect observations to the field itself. In a Bayesian setting, a modeling algorithm based on Gaussian process regression is developed and applied to binned data. The modeling algorithm is then extended to the temporal domain and expanded to incorporate dating uncertainties. Finally, the algorithm is sequentialized to deal with numerical challenges arising from the size of the Holocene dataset.
The central result of this thesis, including all of the aspects mentioned, is a new global geomagnetic field model. It covers the whole Holocene, back until 12000 BCE, and we call it ArchKalmag14k. When considering the uncertainties that are produced together with the model, it is evident that before 6000 BCE the thermoremanent database is not sufficient to support global models. For times more recent, ArchKalmag14k can be used to analyze features of the field under consideration of posterior uncertainties. The algorithm for generating ArchKalmag14k can be applied to different datasets and is provided to the community as an open source python package.
In this paper we present a Bayesian framework for interpolating data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with a random subdivision scheme, where not only approximations of the values of a function at some missing points can be obtained, but also uncertainty estimates for such predicted values. This random scheme generalizes the usual subdivision by taking into account, at each level, some uncertainty given in terms of suitably scaled noise sequences of i.i.d. Gaussian random variables with zero mean and given variance, and generating, in the limit, a Gaussian process whose correlation structure is characterized and used for computing realizations of the conditional posterior distribution. The hierarchical nature of the procedure may be exploited to reduce the computational cost compared to standard techniques in the case where many prediction points need to be considered.
We study differential cohomology on categories of globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifolds. The Lorentzian metric allows us to define a natural transformation whose kernel generalizes Maxwell's equations and fits into a restriction of the fundamental exact sequences of differential cohomology. We consider smooth Pontryagin duals of differential cohomology groups, which are subgroups of the character groups. We prove that these groups fit into smooth duals of the fundamental exact sequences of differential cohomology and equip them with a natural presymplectic structure derived from a generalized Maxwell Lagrangian. The resulting presymplectic Abelian groups are quantized using the CCR-functor, which yields a covariant functor from our categories of globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifolds to the category of C∗-algebras. We prove that this functor satisfies the causality and time-slice axioms of locally covariant quantum field theory, but that it violates the locality axiom. We show that this violation is precisely due to the fact that our functor has topological subfunctors describing the Pontryagin duals of certain singular cohomology groups. As a byproduct, we develop a Fréchet–Lie group structure on differential cohomology groups.
In this note, we consider the semigroup O(X) of all order endomorphisms of an infinite chain X and the subset J of O(X) of all transformations alpha such that vertical bar Im(alpha)vertical bar = vertical bar X vertical bar. For an infinite countable chain X, we give a necessary and sufficient condition on X for O(X) = < J > to hold. We also present a sufficient condition on X for O(X) = < J > to hold, for an arbitrary infinite chain X.
We show a connection between the CDE′ inequality introduced in Horn et al. (Volume doubling, Poincaré inequality and Gaussian heat kernel estimate for nonnegative curvature graphs. arXiv:1411.5087v2, 2014) and the CDψ inequality established in Münch (Li–Yau inequality on finite graphs via non-linear curvature dimension conditions. arXiv:1412.3340v1, 2014). In particular, we introduce a CDφψ inequality as a slight generalization of CDψ which turns out to be equivalent to CDE′ with appropriate choices of φ and ψ. We use this to prove that the CDE′ inequality implies the classical CD inequality on graphs, and that the CDE′ inequality with curvature bound zero holds on Ricci-flat graphs.