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Abstract
In recent years, feedforward neural networks (NNs) have been successfully applied to reconstruct global plasmasphere dynamics in the equatorial plane. These neural network‐based models capture the large‐scale dynamics of the plasmasphere, such as plume formation and erosion of the plasmasphere on the nightside. However, their performance depends strongly on the availability of training data. When the data coverage is limited or non‐existent, as occurs during geomagnetic storms, the performance of NNs significantly decreases, as networks inherently cannot learn from the limited number of examples. This limitation can be overcome by employing physics‐based modeling during strong geomagnetic storms. Physics‐based models show a stable performance during periods of disturbed geomagnetic activity if they are correctly initialized and configured. In this study, we illustrate how to combine the neural network‐ and physics‐based models of the plasmasphere in an optimal way by using data assimilation. The proposed approach utilizes advantages of both neural network‐ and physics‐based modeling and produces global plasma density reconstructions for both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic activity, including extreme geomagnetic storms. We validate the models quantitatively by comparing their output to the in‐situ density measurements from RBSP‐A for an 18‐month out‐of‐sample period from June 30, 2016 to January 01, 2018 and computing performance metrics. To validate the global density reconstructions qualitatively, we compare them to the IMAGE EUV images of the He+ particle distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere for a number of events in the past, including the Halloween storm in 2003.
Leaf area index (LAI) is a key variable in understanding and modeling crop-environment interactions.
With the advent of increasingly higher spatial resolution satellites and sensors mounted on remotely piloted aircrafts (RPAs), the use of remote sensing in precision agriculture is becoming more common.
Since also the availability of methods to retrieve LAI from image data have also drastically expanded, it is necessary to test simultaneously as many methods as possible to understand the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.
Ground-based LAI data from three years of barley experiments were related to remote sensing information using vegetation indices (VI), machine learning (ML) and radiative transfer models (RTM), to assess the relative accuracy and efficacy of these methods.
The optimized soil adjusted vegetation index and a modified version of the Weighted Difference Vegetation Index performed slightly better than any other retrieval method. However, all methods yielded coefficients of determination of around 0.7 to 0.9.
The best performing machine learning algorithms achieved higher accuracies when four Sentinel-2 bands instead of 12 were used.
Also, the good performance of VIs and the satisfactory performance of the 4-band RTM, strongly support the synergistic use of satellites and RPAs in precision agriculture. One of the methods used, Sen2-Agri, an open source ML-RTM-based operational system, was also able to accurately retrieve LAI, although it is restricted to Sentinel-2 and Landsat data.
This study shows the benefits of testing simultaneously a broad range of retrieval methods to monitor crops for precision agriculture.
Nowadays, production planning and control must cope with mass customization, increased fluctuations in demand, and high competition pressures. Despite prevailing market risks, planning accuracy and increased adaptability in the event of disruptions or failures must be ensured, while simultaneously optimizing key process indicators. To manage that complex task, neural networks that can process large quantities of high-dimensional data in real time have been widely adopted in recent years. Although these are already extensively deployed in production systems, a systematic review of applications and implemented agent embeddings and architectures has not yet been conducted. The main contribution of this paper is to provide researchers and practitioners with an overview of applications and applied embeddings and to motivate further research in neural agent-based production. Findings indicate that neural agents are not only deployed in diverse applications, but are also increasingly implemented in multi-agent environments or in combination with conventional methods — leveraging performances compared to benchmarks and reducing dependence on human experience. This not only implies a more sophisticated focus on distributed production resources, but also broadening the perspective from a local to a global scale. Nevertheless, future research must further increase scalability and reproducibility to guarantee a simplified transfer of results to reality.
This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely to use indirect messages when sanctioning institutions are present. This effect of sanctions on communication reinforces the direct cartel-deterring effect of sanctions as collusion is more difficult to reach and sustain without an explicit agreement. Indirect messages have no, or even a negative, effect on prices.
The intensity of cosmic radiation may differ over five orders of magnitude within a few hours or days during the Solar Particle Events (SPEs), thus increasing for several orders of magnitude the probability of Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in space-borne electronic systems. Therefore, it is vital to enable the early detection of the SEU rate changes in order to ensure timely activation of dynamic radiation hardening measures. In this paper, an embedded approach for the prediction of SPEs and SRAM SEU rate is presented. The proposed solution combines the real-time SRAM-based SEU monitor, the offline-trained machine learning model and online learning algorithm for the prediction. With respect to the state-of-the-art, our solution brings the following benefits: (1) Use of existing on-chip data storage SRAM as a particle detector, thus minimizing the hardware and power overhead, (2) Prediction of SRAM SEU rate one hour in advance, with the fine-grained hourly tracking of SEU variations during SPEs as well as under normal conditions, (3) Online optimization of the prediction model for enhancing the prediction accuracy during run-time, (4) Negligible cost of hardware accelerator design for the implementation of selected machine learning model and online learning algorithm. The proposed design is intended for a highly dependable and self-adaptive multiprocessing system employed in space applications, allowing to trigger the radiation mitigation mechanisms before the onset of high radiation levels.
Forest microclimate can buffer biotic responses to summer heat waves, which are expected to become more extreme under climate warming. Prediction of forest microclimate is limited because meteorological observation standards seldom include situations inside forests.
We use eXtreme Gradient Boosting - a Machine Learning technique - to predict the microclimate of forest sites in Brandenburg, Germany, using seasonal data comprising weather features.
The analysis was amended by applying a SHapley Additive explanation to show the interaction effect of variables and individualised feature attributions.
We evaluate model performance in comparison to artificial neural networks, random forest, support vector machine, and multi-linear regression.
After implementing a feature selection, an ensemble approach was applied to combine individual models for each forest and improve robustness over a given single prediction model.
The resulting model can be applied to translate climate change scenarios into temperatures inside forests to assess temperature-related ecosystem services provided by forests.
Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.
Highly efficient and accurate selection of elite genotypes can lead to dramatic shortening of the breeding cycle in major crops relevant for sustaining present demands for food, feed, and fuel. In contrast to classical approaches that emphasize the need for resource-intensive phenotyping at all stages of artificial selection, genomic selection dramatically reduces the need for phenotyping. Genomic selection relies on advances in machine learning and the availability of genotyping data to predict agronomically relevant phenotypic traits. Here we provide a systematic review of machine learning approaches applied for genomic selection of single and multiple traits in major crops in the past decade. We emphasize the need to gather data on intermediate phenotypes, e.g. metabolite, protein, and gene expression levels, along with developments of modeling techniques that can lead to further improvements of genomic selection. In addition, we provide a critical view of factors that affect genomic selection, with attention to transferability of models between different environments. Finally, we highlight the future aspects of integrating high-throughput molecular phenotypic data from omics technologies with biological networks for crop improvement.
We present an approach for rapidly estimating full moment tensors of earthquakes and their parameter uncertainties based on short time windows of recorded seismic waveform data by considering deep learning of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). The individual neural networks are trained on synthetic seismic waveform data and corresponding known earthquake moment-tensor parameters. A monitoring volume has been predefined to form a three-dimensional grid of locations and to train a BNN for each grid point. Variational inference on several of these networks allows us to consider several sources of error and how they affect the estimated full moment-tensor parameters and their uncertainties. In particular, we demonstrate how estimated parameter distributions are affected by uncertainties in the earthquake centroid location in space and time as well as in the assumed Earth structure model. We apply our approach as a proof of concept on seismic waveform recordings of aftershocks of the Ridgecrest 2019 earthquake with moment magnitudes ranging from Mw 2.7 to Mw 5.5. Overall, good agreement has been achieved between inferred parameter ensembles and independently estimated parameters using classical methods. Our developed approach is fast and robust, and therefore, suitable for down-stream analyses that need rapid estimates of the source mechanism for a large number of earthquakes.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing fundamentally the way how IT solutions are implemented and operated across all application domains, including the geospatial domain. This contribution outlines AI-based techniques for 3D point clouds and geospatial digital twins as generic components of geospatial AI. First, we briefly reflect on the term "AI" and outline technology developments needed to apply AI to IT solutions, seen from a software engineering perspective. Next, we characterize 3D point clouds as key category of geodata and their role for creating the basis for geospatial digital twins; we explain the feasibility of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches for 3D point clouds. In particular, we argue that 3D point clouds can be seen as a corpus with similar properties as natural language corpora and formulate a "Naturalness Hypothesis" for 3D point clouds. In the main part, we introduce a workflow for interpreting 3D point clouds based on ML/DL approaches that derive domain-specific and application-specific semantics for 3D point clouds without having to create explicit spatial 3D models or explicit rule sets. Finally, examples are shown how ML/DL enables us to efficiently build and maintain base data for geospatial digital twins such as virtual 3D city models, indoor models, or building information models.