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Analysis of physicians' probability estimates of a medical outcome based on a sequence of events
(2022)
IMPORTANCE
The probability of a conjunction of 2 independent events is the product of the probabilities of the 2 components and therefore cannot exceed the probability of either component; violation of this basic law is called the conjunction fallacy. A common medical decision-making scenario involves estimating the probability of a final outcome resulting from a sequence of independent events; however, little is known about physicians' ability to accurately estimate the overall probability of success in these situations.
OBJECTIVE
To ascertain whether physicians are able to correctly estimate the overall probability of a medical outcome resulting from 2 independent events.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
This survey study consisted of 3 separate substudies, in which 215 physicians were asked via internet-based survey to estimate the probability of success of each of 2 components of a diagnostic or prognostic sequence as well as the overall probability of success of the 2-step sequence. Substudy 1 was performed from April 2 to 4, 2021, substudy 2 from November 2 toll, 2021, and substudy 3 from May 13 to 19, 2021. All physicians were board certified or board eligible in the primary specialty germane to the substudy (ie, obstetrics and gynecology for substudies land 3 and pulmonology for substudy 2), were recruited from a commercial survey service, and volunteered to participate in the study.
EXPOSURES
Case scenarios presented in an online survey.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Respondents were asked to provide their demographic information in addition to 3 probability estimates. The first substudy included a scenario describing a brow presentation discovered during labor; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the brow presentation would resolve and that the delivery would be vaginal. The second substudy involved a diagnostic evaluation of an incidentally discovered pulmonary nodule; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the patient had a malignant condition and that a technically successful transthoracic needle biopsy would reveal a malignant condition. The third substudy included a modification of the first substudy in an attempt to debias the conjunction fallacy prevalent in the first substudy. Respondents' own probability estimates of the individual events were used to calculate the mathematically correct conjunctive probability.
RESULTS
Among 215 respondents, the mean (SD) age was 54.0 (9.5) years; 142 respondents (66.0%) were male. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. A total of 168 physicians (78.1%) estimated the probability of the 2-step sequence to be greater than the probability of at least 1 of the 2 component events. Compared with the product of their 2 estimated components, respondents overestimated the combined probability by 12.8% (95% CI, 9.6%-16.1%; P < .001) in substudy 1, 19.8% (95% Cl, 16.6%-23.0%; P < .001) in substudy 2, and 18.0% (95% CI, 13.4%-22.5%; P < .001) in substudy 3, results that were mathematically incoherent (ie, formally illogical and mathematically incorrect).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In this survey study of 215 physicians, respondents consistently overestimated the combined probability of 2 events compared with the probability calculated from their own estimates of the individual events. This biased estimation, consistent with the conjunction fallacy, may have substantial implications for diagnostic and prognostic decision-making.
Botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) are potent neurotoxins produced by bacteria, which inhibit neurotransmitter release, specifically in their physiological target known as motor neurons (MNs). For the potency assessment of BoNTs produced for treatment in traditional and aesthetic medicine, the mouse lethality assay is still used by the majority of manufacturers, which is ethically questionable in terms of the 3Rs principle. In this study, MNs were differentiated from human induced pluripotent stem cells based on three published protocols. The resulting cell populations were analyzed for their MN yield and their suitability for the potency assessment of BoNTs. MNs produce specific gangliosides and synaptic proteins, which are bound by BoNTs in order to be taken up by receptor-mediated endocytosis, which is followed by cleavage of specific soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive-factor attachment receptor (SNARE) proteins required for neurotransmitter release. The presence of receptors and substrates for all BoNT serotypes was demonstrated in MNs generated in vitro. In particular, the MN differentiation protocol based on Du et al. yielded high numbers of MNs in a short amount of time with high expression of BoNT receptors and targets. The resulting cells are more sensitive to BoNT/A1 than the commonly used neuroblastoma cell line SiMa. MNs are, therefore, an ideal tool for being combined with already established detection methods.
This study combines spaceborne multitemporal and hyperspectral data to analyze the spatial distribution of surface evaporite minerals and changes in a semi-arid depositional environment associated with episodic flooding events, the Omongwa salt pan (Kalahari, Namibia). The dynamic of the surface crust is evaluated by a change-detection approach using the Iterative-reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD) based on the Landsat archive imagery from 1984 to 2015. The results show that the salt pan is a highly dynamic and heterogeneous landform. A change gradient is observed from very stable pan border to a highly dynamic central pan. On the basis of hyperspectral EO-1 Hyperion images, the current distribution of surface evaporite minerals is characterized using Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). Assessment of field and image endmembers revealed that the pan surface can be categorized into three major crust types based on diagnostic absorption features and mineralogical ground truth data. The mineralogical crust types are related to different zones of surface change as well as pan morphology that influences brine flow during the pan inundation and desiccation cycles. These combined information are used to spatially map depositional environments where the more dynamic halite crust concentrates in lower areas although stable gypsum and calcite/sepiolite crusts appear in higher elevated areas.
Salt pans are highly dynamic environments that are difficult to study by in situ methods because of their harsh climatic conditions and large spatial areas. Remote sensing can help to elucidate their environmental dynamics and provide important constraints regarding their sedimentological, mineralogical, and hydrological evolution. This study utilizes spaceborne multitemporal multispectral optical data combined with spectral endmembers to document spatial distribution of surface crust types over time on the Omongwa pan located in the Namibian Kalahari. For this purpose, 49 surface samples were collected for spectral and mineralogical characterization during three field campaigns (2014–2016) reflecting different seasons and surface conditions of the salt pan. An approach was developed to allow the spatiotemporal analysis of the salt pan crust dynamics in a dense time-series consisting of 77 Landsat 8 cloud-free scenes between 2014 and 2017, covering at least three major wet–dry cycles. The established spectral analysis technique Sequential Maximum Angle Convex Cone (SMACC) extraction method was used to derive image endmembers from the Landsat time-series stack. Evaluation of the extracted endmember set revealed that the multispectral data allowed the differentiation of four endmembers associated with mineralogical mixtures of the crust’s composition in dry conditions and three endmembers associated with flooded or muddy pan conditions. The dry crust endmember spectra have been identified in relation to visible, near infrared, and short-wave infrared (VNIR–SWIR) spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of the collected surface samples. According these results, the spectral endmembers are interpreted as efflorescent halite crust, mixed halite–gypsum crust, mixed calcite quartz sepiolite crust, and gypsum crust. For each Landsat scene the spatial distribution of these crust types was mapped with the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) method and significant spatiotemporal dynamics of the major surface crust types were observed. Further, the surface crust dynamics were analyzed in comparison with the pan’s moisture regime and other climatic parameters. The results show that the crust dynamics are mainly driven by flooding events in the wet season, but are also influenced by temperature and aeolian activity in the dry season. The approach utilized in this study combines the advantages of multitemporal satellite data for temporal event characterization with advantages from hyperspectral methods for the image and ground data analyses that allow improved mineralogical differentiation and characterization.
An ‛Aukward’ tale
(2017)
One hundred and seventy-three years ago, the last two Great Auks, Pinguinus impennis, ever reliably seen were killed. Their internal organs can be found in the collections of the Natural History Museum of Denmark, but the location of their skins has remained a mystery. In 1999, Great Auk expert Errol Fuller proposed a list of five potential candidate skins in museums around the world. Here we take a palaeogenomic approach to test which—if any—of Fuller’s candidate skins likely belong to either of the two birds. Using mitochondrial genomes from the five candidate birds (housed in museums in Bremen, Brussels, Kiel, Los Angeles, and Oldenburg) and the organs of the last two known individuals, we partially solve the mystery that has been on Great Auk scholars’ minds for generations and make new suggestions as to the whereabouts of the still-missing skin from these two birds.
The article introduces the efforts exerted to initiate multiplication of the DIES training courses to a wider audience of higher education managers and academics in the target regions. The DIES ‘National Multiplication Trainings’ Programme has supported three cohorts of alumni teams so far to implement national training courses in the area of higher education leadership and management. The article sets the context of this publication and reflects on the main evaluation results of the programme implementation itself.
Engineering biotechnological microorganisms to use methanol as a feedstock for bioproduction is a major goal for the synthetic metabolism community. Here, we aim to redesign the natural serine cycle for implementation in E. coli. We propose the homoserine cycle, relying on two promiscuous formaldehyde aldolase reactions, as a superior pathway design. The homoserine cycle is expected to outperform the serine cycle and its variants with respect to biomass yield, thermodynamic favorability, and integration with host endogenous metabolism. Even as compared to the RuMP cycle, the most efficient naturally occurring methanol assimilation route, the homoserine cycle is expected to support higher yields of a wide array of products. We test the in vivo feasibility of the homoserine cycle by constructing several E. coli gene deletion strains whose growth is coupled to the activity of different pathway segments. Using this approach, we demonstrate that all required promiscuous enzymes are active enough to enable growth of the auxotrophic strains. Our findings thus identify a novel metabolic solution that opens the way to an optimized methylotrophic platform.
The Ca Mau peninsula (CMP) is a key economic region in southern Vietnam. In recent decades, the high demand for water has increased the exploitation of groundwater, thus lowering the groundwater level and leading to risks of degradation, depletion, and land subsidence, as well as salinity intrusion in the groundwater of the whole Mekong Delta region. By using a finite element groundwater model with boundary expansion to the sea, we updated the latest data on hydrogeological profiles, groundwater levels, and exploitation. The basic model setup covers seven aquifers and seven aquitards. It is determined that the inflow along the coastline to the mainland is 39% of the total inflow. The exploitation of the study area in 2019 was 567,364 m(3)/day. The most exploited aquifers are the upper-middle Pleistocene (qp(2-3)) and the middle Pliocene (n(2)(2)), accounting for 63.7% and 24.6%, respectively; the least exploited aquifers are the upper Pleistocene and the upper Miocene, accounting for 0.35% and 0.02%, respectively. In the deeper aquifers, qp(2-3) and n(2)(2), the change in storage is negative due to the high exploitation rate, leading to a decline in the reserves of these aquifers. These groundwater model results are the calculations of groundwater reserves from the coast to the mainland in the entire system of aquifers in the CMP. This makes groundwater decision managers, stakeholders, and others more efficient in sustainable water resources planning in the CMP and Mekong Delta (MKD).
Accurate and precise characterization of cirrus cloud geometrical and optical properties is essential for better constraining their radiative footprint. A lidar-based retrieval scheme is proposed here, with its performance assessed on fine spatio-temporal observations over the Arctic site of Ny-Alesund, Svalbard. Two contributions related to cirrus geometrical (dynamic Wavelet Covariance Transform (WCT)) and optical properties (constrained Klett) are reported. The dynamic WCT rendered cirrus detection more robust, especially for thin cirrus layers that frequently remained undetected by the classical WCT method. Regarding optical characterization, we developed an iterative scheme for determining the cirrus lidar ratio (LRci) that is a crucial parameter for aerosol - cloud discrimination. Building upon the Klett-Fernald method, the LRci was constrained by an additional reference value. In established methods, such as the double-ended Klett, an aerosol-free reference value is applied. In the proposed constrained Klett, however, the reference value was approximated from cloud-free or low cloud optical depth (COD up to 0.2) profiles and proved to agree with independent Raman estimates. For optically thin cirrus, the constrained Klett inherent uncertainties reached 50% (60-74%) in terms of COD (LRci). However, for opaque cirrus COD (LRci) uncertainties were lower than 10% (15%). The detection method discrepancies (dynamic versus static WCT) had a higher impact on the optical properties of low COD layers (up to 90%) compared to optically thicker ones (less than 10%). The constrained Klett presented high agreement with two established retrievals. For an exemplary cirrus cloud, the constrained Klett estimated the COD355 (LRci355) at 0.28 +/- 0.17 (29 +/- 4 sr), the double-ended Klett at 0.27 +/- 0.15 (32 +/- 4 sr) and the Raman retrievals at 0.22 +/- 0.12 (26 +/- 11 sr). Our approach to determine the necessary reference value can also be applied in established methods and increase their accuracy. In contrast, the classical aerosol-free assumption led to 44 sr LRci overestimation in optically thin layers and 2-8 sr in thicker ones. The multiple scattering effect was corrected using Eloranta (1998) and accounted for 50-60% extinction underestimation near the cloud base and 20-30% within the cirrus layers.
Background
Eating in absence of hunger is quite common and often associated with an increased energy intake co-existent with a poorer food choice. Intuitive eating (IE), i.e., eating in accordance with internal hunger and satiety cues, may protect from overeating. IE, however, requires accurate perception and processing of one’s own bodily signals, also referred to as interoceptive sensitivity. Training interoceptive sensitivity might therefore be an effective method to promote IE and prevent overeating. As most studies on eating behavior are conducted in younger adults and close social relationships influence health-related behavior, this study focuses on middle-aged and older couples.
Methods
The present pilot randomized intervention study aims at investigating the feasibility and effectiveness of a 21-day mindfulness-based training program designed to increase interoceptive sensitivity. A total of N = 60 couples participating in the NutriAct Family Study, aged 50–80 years, will be recruited. This randomized-controlled intervention study comprises three measurement points (pre-intervention, post-intervention, 4-week follow-up) and a 21-day training that consists of daily mindfulness-based guided audio exercises (e.g., body scan). A three-arm intervention study design is applied to compare two intervention groups (training together as a couple vs. training alone) with a control group (no training). Each measurement point includes the assessment of self-reported and objective indicators of interoceptive sensitivity (primary outcome), self-reported indicators of intuitive and maladaptive eating (secondary outcomes), and additional variables. A training evaluation applying focus group discussions will be conducted to assess participants’ overall acceptance of the training and its feasibility.
Discussion
By investigating the feasibility and effectiveness of a mindfulness-based training program to increase interoceptive sensitivity, the present study will contribute to a deeper understanding of how to promote healthy eating in older age.
Loss of expertise in the fields of Nuclear- and Radio-Chemistry (NRC) is problematic at a scientific and social level. This has been addressed by developing a MOOC, in order to let students in scientific matters discover all the benefits of NRC to society and improving their awareness of this discipline. The MOOC “Essential Radiochemistry for Society” includes current societal challenges related to health, clean and sustainable energy for safety and quality of food and agriculture.
NRC teachers belonging to CINCH network were invited to use the MOOC in their teaching, according to various usage models: on the basis of these different experiences, some usage patterns were designed, describing context characteristics (number and age of students, course), activities’ scheduling and organization, results and students’ feedback, with the aim of encouraging the use of MOOCs in university teaching, as an opportunity for both lecturers and students. These models were the basis of a “toolkit for teachers”. By experiencing digital teaching resources created by different lecturers, CINCH teachers took a first meaningful step towards understanding the worth of Open Educational Resources (OER) and the importance of their creation, adoption and sharing for knowledge progress. In this paper, the entire path from MOOC concept to MOOC different usage models, to awareness-raising regarding OER is traced in conceptual stages.
Background: The prevalence of diabetes worldwide is predicted to increase from 2.8% in 2000 to 4.4% in 2030. Diabetic neuropathy (DN) is associated with damage to nerve glial cells, their axons, and endothelial cells leading to impaired function and mobility.
Objective: We aimed to examine the effects of an endurance-dominated exercise program on maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max), ground reaction forces, and muscle activities during walking in patients with moderate DN.
Methods: Sixty male and female individuals aged 45–65 years with DN were randomly assigned to an intervention (IG, n = 30) or a waiting control (CON, n = 30) group. The research protocol of this study was registered with the Local Clinical Trial Organization (IRCT20200201046326N1). IG conducted an endurance-dominated exercise program including exercises on a bike ergometer and gait therapy. The progressive intervention program lasted 12 weeks with three sessions per week, each 40–55 min. CON received the same treatment as IG after the post-tests. Pre- and post-training, VO2max was tested during a graded exercise test using spiroergometry. In addition, ground reaction forces and lower limbs muscle activities were recorded while walking at a constant speed of ∼1 m/s.
Results: No statistically significant baseline between group differences was observed for all analyzed variables. Significant group-by-time interactions were found for VO2max (p < 0.001; d = 1.22). The post-hoc test revealed a significant increase in IG (p < 0.001; d = 1.88) but not CON. Significant group-by-time interactions were observed for peak lateral and vertical ground reaction forces during heel contact and peak vertical ground reaction force during push-off (p = 0.001–0.037; d = 0.56–1.53). For IG, post-hoc analyses showed decreases in peak lateral (p < 0.001; d = 1.33) and vertical (p = 0.004; d = 0.55) ground reaction forces during heel contact and increases in peak vertical ground reaction force during push-off (p < 0.001; d = 0.92). In terms of muscle activity, significant group-by-time interactions were found for vastus lateralis and gluteus medius during the loading phase and for vastus medialis during the mid-stance phase, and gastrocnemius medialis during the push-off phase (p = 0.001–0.044; d = 0.54–0.81). Post-hoc tests indicated significant intervention-related increases in vastus lateralis (p = 0.001; d = 1.08) and gluteus medius (p = 0.008; d = 0.67) during the loading phase and vastus medialis activity during mid-stance (p = 0.001; d = 0.86). In addition, post-hoc tests showed decreases in gastrocnemius medialis during the push-off phase in IG only (p < 0.001; d = 1.28).
Conclusions: This study demonstrated that an endurance-dominated exercise program has the potential to improve VO2max and diabetes-related abnormal gait in patients with DN. The observed decreases in peak vertical ground reaction force during the heel contact of walking could be due to increased vastus lateralis and gluteus medius activities during the loading phase. Accordingly, we recommend to implement endurance-dominated exercise programs in type 2 diabetic patients because it is feasible, safe and effective by improving aerobic capacity and gait characteristics.
Interoception is an often neglected but crucial aspect of the human minimal self. In this perspective, we extend the embodiment account of interoceptive inference to explain the development of the minimal self in humans. To do so, we first provide a comparative overview of the central accounts addressing the link between interoception and the minimal self. Grounding our arguments on the embodiment framework, we propose a bidirectional relationship between motor and interoceptive states, which jointly contribute to the development of the minimal self. We present empirical findings on interoception in development and discuss the role of interoception in the development of the minimal self. Moreover, we make theoretical predictions that can be tested in future experiments. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive view on the mechanisms underlying the minimal self by explaining the role of interoception in the development of the minimal self.
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
This short paper sets out to propose a novel and interesting learning design that facilitates for cooperative learning in which students do not conduct traditional group work in an asynchronous online education setting. This learning design will be explored in a Small Private Online Course (SPOC) among teachers and school managers at a teacher education. Such an approach can be made possible by applying specific criteria commonly used to define collaborative learning. Collaboration can be defined, among other things, as a structured way of working among students that includes elements of co-laboring. The cooperative learning design involves adapting various traditional collaborative learning approaches for use in an online learning environment. A critical component of this learning design is that students work on a self-defined case project related to their professional practices. Through an iterative process, students will receive ongoing feedback and formative assessments from instructors and follow students at specific points, meaning that co-constructing of knowledge and learning takes place as the SPOC progresses. This learning design can contribute to better learning experiences and outcomes for students, and be a valuable contribution to current research discussions on learning design in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs).
Plants are in permanent contact with various microorganisms and are always impacted by them. To better understand the first steps of a plant’s recognition of soil-borne microorganisms, the early release of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from roots of Medicago truncatula in response to the symbiont Rhizophagus irregularis or the pathogenic oomycete Aphanomyces euteiches was analysed. More than 90 compounds were released from roots as detected by an untargeted gas chromatography-mass spectrometry approach. Principal component analyses clearly distinguished untreated roots from roots treated with either R. irregularis or A. euteiches. Several VOCs were found to be emitted specifically in response to each of the microorganisms. Limonene was specifically emitted from wild-type roots after contact with R. irregularis spores but not from roots of the mycorrhiza-deficient mutant does not make infections3. The application of limonene to mycorrhizal roots, however, did not affect the mycorrhization rate. Inoculation of roots with A. euteiches zoospores resulted in the specific emission of several sesquiterpenes, such as nerolidol, viridiflorol and nerolidol-epoxyacetate but application of nerolidol to zoospores of A. euteiches did not affect their vitality. Therefore, plants discriminate between different microorganisms at early stages of their interaction and respond differently to the level of root-emitted volatiles.
The synthesis of chiral nanoporous carbons based on chiral ionic liquids (CILs) of amino acids as precursors is described. Such unique precursors for the carbonization of CILs yield chiral carbonaceous materials with high surface area (approximate to 620 m(2) g(-1)). The enantioselectivities of the porous carbons are examined by advanced techniques such as selective adsorption of enantiomers using cyclic voltammetry, isothermal titration calorimetry, and mass spectrometry. These techniques demonstrate the chiral nature and high enantioselectivity of the chiral carbon materials. Overall, we believe that the novel approach presented here can contribute significantly to the development of new chiral carbon materials that will find important applications in chiral chemistry, such as in chiral catalysis and separation and in chiral sensors. From a scientific point of view, the approach and results reported here can significantly deepen our understanding of chirality at the nanoscale and of the structure and nature of chiral nonporous materials and surfaces.
Sn-based catalysts are effective in the ring-opening polymerization (ROP) but are toxic. Fe(OAc)(2) used as an alternative catalyst is suitable for the ROP of lactide only at higher temperatures (>170 degrees C), associated with racemization. In the ROP of ester and amide group containing morpholinediones with Fe(OAc)(2) to polydepsipeptides at 135 degrees C, ester bonds were selectively opened. Here, it was hypothesized that ROP of lactones is possible with Fe(OAc)(2) when amides are present in the reactions mixture as Fe-ligands could increase the solubility and activity of the metal catalytic center. The ROP of lactide in the melt with Fe(OAc)(2) is possible at temperatures as low as 105 degrees C, in the presence of N-ethylacetamide or N-rnethylbenzamide as non-polymerizable catalytic adjuncts (NPCA), with high conversion (up to 99 mol%) and yield (up to 88 mol%). Polydispersities of polylactide decreased with decreasing reaction temperature to <= 1.1. NMR as well as polarimetric studies showed that no racemization occurred at reaction temperatures <= 145 degrees C. A kinetic study demonstrated a living chain-growth mechanism. MALDI analysis revealed that no side reactions (e.g., cyclization) occurred, though transesterification took place.
As mid-19th-century American Jews introduced radical changes to their religious observance and began to define Judaism in new ways, to what extent did they engage with European Jewish ideas? Historians often approach religious change among Jews from German lands during this period as if Jewish immigrants had come to America with one set of ideas that then evolved solely in conversation with their American contexts. Historians have similarly cast the kinds of Judaism Americans created as both unique to America and uniquely American. These characterizations are accurate to an extent. But to what extent did Jewish innovations in the United States take place in conversation with European Jewish developments? Looking to the 19th-century American Jewish press, this paper seeks to understand how American Jews engaged European Judaism in formulating their own ideas, understanding themselves, and understanding their place in world Judaism.
In the following article, the focus is on the transformative potentials created by so-called persistence avant-gardes and prevention innovators. The text extends Bluhdorn's guiding concept of narratives of hope (Bluhdorn 2017; Bluhdorn and Butzlaff 2019) by considering those groups that are marginalized within debates on socio-ecological transformation. With a closer look at the narratives of prevention and blockade that these actors engage, the ambiguous nature of postgrowth avant-gardes is carved out. Their discursive, argumentative, and effective inhibition of transitory policies is interpreted as a pro-active potential, rather than a mere obstacle to socio-ecological transformation. Adding a geographical perspective, the paper pleads for a more precise theoretical penetration of the ambivalent figure of avantgardes when analyzing processes of local and regional postgrowth.
Theocritus’ id. 4 has been considered by some scholars as an example of rural mime; the fact that the poem, a unique case in the Corpus Theocriteum, does not contain any pastoral song or contest contributes to the impression of ‘realism’. This lack could be an obstacle for the poetological approach to the bucolic genre in antiquity, which considers metapoetry as its main feature. Our reading of the idyll shows that this limitation is only apparent.
For centuries, Amaranthus sp. were used as food, ornamentals, and medication. Molecular mechanisms, explaining the health beneficial properties of amaranth, are not yet understood, but have been attributed to secondary metabolites, such as phenolic compounds. One of the most abundant phenolic compounds in amaranth leaves is 2-caffeoylisocitric acid (C-IA) and regarding food occurrence, C-IA is exclusively found in various amaranth species. In the present study, the anti-inflammatory activity of C-IA, chlorogenic acid, and caffeic acid in LPS-challenged macrophages (RAW 264.7) has been investigated and cellular contents of the caffeic acid derivatives (CADs) were quantified in the cells and media. The CADs were quantified in the cell lysates in nanomolar concentrations, indicating a cellular uptake. Treatment of LPS-challenged RAW 264.7 cells with 10 µM of CADs counteracted the LPS effects and led to significantly lower mRNA and protein levels of inducible nitric oxide synthase, tumor necrosis factor alpha, and interleukin 6, by directly decreasing the translocation of the nuclear factor κB/Rel-like containing protein 65 into the nucleus. This work provides new insights into the molecular mechanisms that attribute to amaranth’s anti-inflammatory properties and highlights C-IA’s potential as a health-beneficial compound for future research.
In diesem Beitrag wird ein geplantes digitales Lehrkonzept für die universitäre Begleitung des Praxissemesters in den Fächern Biologie und Mathematik vorgestellt. Darin setzen sich Studierende im Praxissemester selbstständig fachspezifische Schwerpunkte für die Planung, Durchführung und Reflexion von Unterrichtsprojekten in der Schule. Optimalerweise ergibt sich aus den Unterrichtsprojekten auch eine fachbezogene Fragestellung, die von den Studierenden im Zuge Forschenden Lernens ergründet werden kann. Begleitet wird der gesamte Prozess durch systematisch angeleitete E-Peer-Assessments (E-PA). Dabei treten Studierende in Peers in den digitalen, schriftlichen Dialog über Unterricht und durchlaufen gemeinsam Reflexions- und Feedbackschleifen, welche durch die universitäre Seminarleitung instruiert werden.
In this paper, we employ an experimental paradigm using insights from the psychology of reasoning to investigate the question whether certain modals generate and draw attention to alternatives. The article extends and builds on the methodology and findings of Mascarenhas & Picat (2019). Based on experimental results, they argue that the English epistemic modal might raises alternatives. We apply the same methodology to the English modal allowed to to test different hypotheses regarding the involvement of alternatives in deontic modality. We find commonalities and differences between the two modals we tested. We discuss theoretical consequences for existing semantic analyses of these modals, and argue that reasoning tasks can serve as a diagnostic tool to discover which natural language expressions involve alternatives.
The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached.
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by excessive lipid accumulation in the liver.
Various mechanisms such as an increased uptake in fatty acids or de novo synthesis contribute to the development of steatosis and progression to more severe stages. Furthermore, it has been shown that impaired lipophagy, the degradation of lipids by autophagic processes, contributes to NAFLD.
Through an unbiased lipidome analysis of mouse livers in a genetic model of impaired lipophagy, we aimed to determine the resulting alterations in the lipidome. Observed changes overlap with those of the human disease.
Overall, the entire lipid content and in particular the triacylglycerol concentration increased under conditions of impaired lipophagy.
In addition, we detected a reduction in long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and an increased ratio of n-6 PUFAs to n-3 PUFAs, which was due to the depletion of n-3 PUFAs.
Although the abundance of major phospholipid classes was reduced, the ratio of phosphatidylcholines to phosphatidylethanolamines was not affected. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that impaired lipophagy contributes to the pathology of NAFLD and is associated with an altered lipid profile.
However, the lipid pattern does not appear to be specific for lipophagic alterations, as it resembles mainly that described in relation to fatty liver disease.
Background
The anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture can lead to impaired knee function. Reconstruction decreases the mechanical instability but might not have an impact on sensorimotor alterations.
Objective
Evaluation of the sensorimotor function measured with the active joint position sense (JPS) test in anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstructed patients compared to the contralateral side and a healthy control group.
Methods
The databases MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, PEDro, Cochrane Library and SPORTDiscus were systematically searched from origin until April 2020. Studies published in English, German, French, Spanish or Italian language were included. Evaluation of the sensorimotor performance was restricted to the active joint position sense test in ACL reconstructed participants or healthy controls. The Preferred Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. Study quality was evaluated using the Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Data was descriptively synthesized.
Results
Ten studies were included after application of the selective criteria. Higher angular deviation, reaching significant difference (p < 0.001) in one study, was shown up to three months after surgery in the affected limb. Six months post-operative significantly less error (p < 0.01) was found in the reconstructed leg compared to the contralateral side and healthy controls. One or more years after ACL reconstruction significant differences were inconsistent along the studies.
Conclusions
Altered sensorimotor function was present after ACL reconstruction. Due to inconsistencies and small magnitudes, clinical relevance might be questionable. JPS testing can be performed in acute injured persons and prospective studies could enhance knowledge of sensorimotor function throughout the rehabilitative processes.
Alles kann besser werden!
(2021)
Alles auf (Studien-)Anfang? Faktoren für den Studienerfolg in der Eingangsphase und zur Studienmitte
(2020)
Die hohen Abbruchquoten, insbesondere in der Studieneingangsphase, haben die Hochschulen in Deutschland veranlasst, eine Vielzahl von Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, über deren Wirkungen bisher allerdings wenig bekannt ist. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden Befunde eines Forschungsprojekts speziell zur Studieneingangsphase sowie ergänzend zur Studienmitte vorgestellt, dessen Ziel es war, Bedingungen eines erfolgreichen Studieneinstiegs zu identifizieren und Empfehlungen für eine Optimierung des Studieneingangs abzuleiten. Das Forschungsdesign umfasste neben qualitativen Studien vor allem eine quantitative Längsschnittbefragung an fünf Universitäten (Potsdam, Mainz, Magdeburg, Kiel und Greifswald). Im Ergebnis der Analysen konnte die forschungsleitende Hypothese, dass Maßnahmen zum Studieneingang vor allem dann zur Erhöhung des Studienerfolgs einen Beitrag leisten, wenn sie zur akademischen und sozialen Integration in die Hochschule beitragen, bestätigt werden. Bedeutsam für den Studienerfolg sind demnach insbesondere solche Faktoren wie die Identifikation mit dem Studienfach, die Selbstwirksamkeit, die berufliche bzw. erfolgsorientierte Lernmotivation und die akademische Integration. Daneben konnte ein positiver Einfluss des sozialen Klimas sowie des Forschungs- und Praxisbezugs auf die Studienzufriedenheit nachgewiesen werden. Weiterführende Analysen zur Studienmitte verdeutlichen zudem, dass für die beiden Studienphasen (Eingang und Studienmitte) gleiche Faktoren bei zum Teil unterschiedlicher Gewichtung eine Rolle spielen. So ist die soziale Integration ein wesentlicher Prädiktor in beiden Phasen – in der Eingangsphase eher in die Studierendenschaft und im weiteren Studienverlauf (Studienmitte) eher in die akademische Gemeinschaft (in Form von Lehrenden). Insofern muss die Eingangsfrage wie folgt beantwortet werden: Ja, alles auf Anfang, aber dann mit den Bemühungen, soziale und akademische Integration aller Studierenden voll und ganz zu gewährleisten. Zudem machen die Befunde auf die bisher offenbar unterschätzte Rolle von Verwertungsmotiven aufmerksam.
Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
Algorithmen als Dozierende?
(2023)
Auf maschinellem Lernen basierende Tools haben schon längst Einzug in unseren Alltag gefunden und so konnten auch in der Lehrkräftebildung erste Anwendungen entwickelt, erprobt und evaluiert werden. Im Teilprojekt Physikdidaktik des Schwerpunktes 2 „Schulpraktische Studien“ wurden auf Basis eines Rahmenmodells für Reflexion (Nowak et al., 2019) automatisierte Analysemethoden (Wulff et al., 2020) entwickelt und fanden Einzug in universitäre fachdidaktische Lehre (Mientus et al., 2021a). Mit dem Projekt konnten Potenziale KI-basierter Unterstützung aufgezeigt und verstetigt sowie spezifische Herausforderungen identifiziert werden. Dieser Beitrag skizziert ausgewählte Anwendungsmöglichkeiten und weiterführende Forschungen unter dem Gesichtspunkt der Akzeptanz computerunterstützter Lehre.
Pierre-Simon Marquis de Laplace joua un rôle éminent dans la vie scientifique d’Alexandre de Humboldt. Humboldt avait fait la connaissance du savant français qui avait vingt ans de plus que lui-même à Paris en 1798. L’article de Eberhard Knobloch examine la relation entre ces deux géants de la science en s’appuyant entre autre pour la première fois sur des documents inédits: les quatre lettres de Laplace à Humboldt, le journal d’Humboldt et sur le matériel d’archives conservé aux Archives de l’Académie des Sciences de Berlin-Brandebourg.
Though Humboldt’s travels to the Americas have been analyzed from a wide range of viewpoints, there are specific aspects that still await further investigation. Little is written about Humboldt in the field, specifically how he moved between different locations and simultaneously measured and mapped places and phenomena. The aim of this article is to discuss the triad movement-measure-ment-map that led to the development of specific practices of knowledge building on the move. Humboldt’s search for the connections between the watersheds of the Orinoco and the Amazon rivers and the resulting maps and drawings are used as an example to point out his cartographic impulse in his quest to understand and explain the physical world.
When it comes to footnotes, Alexander von Humboldt was ahead of his times even though his references leave much to be desired by today’s academic standards. This article examines the footnotes of Humboldt’s Essai politique sur l‘île de Cuba (1826). While it is not always easy to decipher his sometimes cryptic references, the undertaking is worthwhile: Humboldt’s footnotes do not only reveal his vast networks of knowledge. They also provide glimpses of ongoing, contemporary disputes among different scholars that involve Humboldt’s writings. They also present Humboldt’s reactions to such disputes. Exploring Humboldt’s footnotes consequently allows the reader to access both Humboldt the scholar and Humboldt the human being.
Während seines Aufenthalts 1803 in Mexiko machte von Humboldt die Bekanntschaft von Dupaix, einem spanischen Soldaten luxemburgischer Herkunft und Liebhaber präkolumbischer Altertümer. Die Entdeckung verschiedener Manuskripte Dupaix’ sowie die Untersuchung diverser Archive und persönlicher Aufzeichnungen des Freiherrn und von Dokumenten unterschiedlicher Institutionen beiderseits des Atlantiks erlauben es, den außergewöhnlichen Weg eines berühmten mexikanischen Objekts, der Chalchiuhtlicue, nachzuvollziehen, die der preußische Forschungsreisende 1810 als „aztekische Priesterin“ in seinem Buch Vues des cordillères … beschrieben hatte. Der vorliegende Beitrag versucht, die verschiedenen Besitzer und die Umstände nachzuzeichnen, welche die Wanderung dieser emblematischen prähispanischen Statuette von Mexiko-Stadt nach London fast ein halbes Jahrhundert lang begleitet haben.
Alexander von Humboldt führte einen bisher völlig unbekannten Briefwechsel mit Ludwig August von Buch, einem Neffen des berühmten Geologen Leopold von Buch. Die drei in französischer Sprache verfassten und in Rom aufbewahrten Briefe werden zum ersten Mal publiziert. Sie berichten insbesondere über interessante Details von Humboldts Russland-Reise und enthalten ein Empfehlungsschreiben für den Offizier und Historiker Leopold von Orlich.
Das von Alexander von Humboldt ab 1804 oder später verfasste Manuskript „Isle de Cube. Antilles en général“ wurde erst kürzlich zum ersten Mal veröffentlicht. Es stellt die Grundlage für den Essai politique sur l‘île de Cuba (1826) dar, der als das „wichtigste liberale Manifest des 19. Jahrhunderts gegen die Sklaverei“ gilt. Ziel der Untersuchung ist, die textgenetische inhaltliche und stilistische Entwicklung vom Manuskript zur Publikation ansatzweise nachverfolgen zu können, um Rückschlüsse auf Humboldts Arbeitsweise und Strategien als Autor mit einem politischen Anliegen zu ziehen.
Für Margot Faak (1926–2015)
Am 14. Juni 2015 starb unsere Kollegin Margot Faak im 89. Lebensjahr. Wir erinnern an sie mit Worten des Abschieds von Eberhard Knobloch und dem Wiederabdruck eines Aufsatzes aus ihrer Feder von 1999.
Die Neuveröffentlichung erfolgt mit freundlicher Genehmigung der Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung.
Der Text wurde in den Fußnoten durch einige aktuelle bibliographische und sachliche Angaben ergänzt.
HiN VII, 13 (2006) war Margot Faak zu ihrem 80. Geburtstag gewidmet. Das Heft enthält einen Lebenslauf und ein Verzeichnis ihrer Schriften.
Berlin, Oktober 2015
Regina Mikosch und Ingo Schwarz
Im Jahre 1789 hatte Alexander von Humboldt als Student in Göttingen mit großem Enthusiasmus ein Manuskript zur „Weberei der Alten“ verfasst. Es war das Ziel seiner Studie, die Technologie und die Terminologie der antiken Weberei zu erfassen und beide Gebiete vereint darzustellen. Dieses Manuskript ist nicht veröffentlicht worden und gilt als verschollen. Alexander von Humboldt hatte offenbar neue Erkenntnisse gewonnen, denen er so große Bedeutung beimaß, dass er den Verlust seines Manuskriptes noch über 50 Jahre nach dessen Abfassung bedauerte. Humboldt benennt glücklicherweise in überlieferten Briefen verschiedene Grundgedanken seiner damaligen Arbeit. In der vorliegenden Studie wird unter Einbeziehung aktueller technikhistorischer Erkenntnisse nachgewiesen, dass der junge Alexander von Humboldt das für alle Webtechniken gültige Prinzip in seinen Grundzügen erkannt hatte.
El Ensayo sobre la geografía de las plantas de Alexander von Humboldt ha trascendido como una de sus principales propuestas científicas, fundamento de lo que se conoce hoy como “biogeografía”. El origen de este concepto es difuso hasta el momento de la publicación simultánea de su obra en París y en Tübingen, en 1807. El presente artículo propone contrastar la primera versión manuscrita de este ensayo, elaborada en 1803 en Guayaquil y luego leída en 1805 en el Institut National de Paris, con la obra contemporánea del neogranadino Francisco José de Caldas, con quien convivió en Quito en el primer semestre de 1802.
Die beiden Forschungsreisenden Alexander von Humboldt und Ulrich Jasper Seetzen haben sich während der gemeinsamen Studienzeit in Göttingen kennengelernt und sich dort über ihre Arbeiten zur Naturkunde ausgetauscht. Später brach Seetzen, wie Humboldt, zu einer großen Expedition auf, die ihn als ersten Europäer durch das zentrale Afrika führen sollte. Seine Forschungen im Nahen Osten gelten bis heute als Pionierleistungen der Orientalistik. Das Unternehmen fand auf der arabischen Halbinsel ein vorzeitiges, tragisches Ende.
Über die Beziehung der beiden Kommilitonen während ihrer Göttinger Zeit war bislang wenig bekannt. Ein kürzlich entdecktes Brieffragment ermöglicht neue Einblicke. Es erweist sich als eine Abschrift Seetzens aus einem bislang unbekannten Brief des einundzwanzigjährigen Humboldt über dessen Helgolandreise 1790. Im Zusammenhang mit weiteren Quellen kann diese Jugendfreundschaft nun besser bewertet werden.
Zuerst erschienen in:
Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung. Mitteilungen, 5. Jg., Heft 38, Oktober 1980, S. 27–36.
Alexander von Humboldt war in Polen bereits im ausgehenden 18. Jahrhundert berühmt geworden. Er reiste mehrmals nach Polen und unterhielt Kontakte zu polnischen oder polnischstämmigen Wissenschaftlern. Aus den 30er und 40er Jahren stammen die meisten schriftlichen Belege, die von Beziehungen Humboldts zu solchen Persönlichkeiten wie Ludwik Zejszner, Józef Waraszkiewicz oder Filip Neryusz Walter zeugen. Nicht nachweisbar ist heute dafür Humboldts Kontakt zu Wincenty Pol sowie zu Ignacy Domeyko. Humboldt inspiriert nicht nur polnische Wissenschaftler, sondern auch führende polnische Dichter der Romantik. Viele polnische Exilanten verdanken dem deutschen Gelehrten wertvolle Kontakte, Empfehlungsschreiben und Gesuche bei damaligen Machthabern.
Daniel Kehlmanns Roman „Die Vermessung der Welt“ wird hoch gepriesen und streng kritisiert. Kehlmanns Kritiker lesen seine Satire als eine verfälschte Biographie von Gauss und Humboldt, obwohl der Autor wiederholt selbstironische Bemerkungen eingestreut hat, die sein wahres Ziel offenbaren. Der Aufsatz bemüht sich, Kehlmanns fiktiven Roman angemessen zu beurteilen und einige der wirklichen Aktivitäten und Errungenschaften von Gauss und Humboldt zu charakterisieren, indem Kehlmanns erzählte mit den historischen Tatsachen verglichen werden. Beide Wissenschaftler waren stark am Erdmagnetismus interessiert, was zeitweise zu einigen Spannungen zwischen ihnen führte. Humboldts Messmethoden und seine Überzeugung, dass alles Wechselwirkung ist, waren zwei Seiten derselben Medaille. Nur numerische Elemente konnten helfen, die Gesetze zu finden, die die Natur regieren. Humboldts wissenschaftliche Techniken und Ziele (Methode der Mittelwerte) waren gut begründet. Humboldts Reisen und Forschen bildeten eine untrennbare Einheit. Humboldts Naturbegriff schloss beide Möglichkeiten ein, das heißt die natura naturans und die natura naturata, die schaffende und herrschende Natur und die Natur, die von bestimmten Gesetzen beherrscht war. Sein überragendes Interesse an Naturgesetzen gründete auf der Überzeugung, dass sie ewig waren und dass sie die Ordnung und Ewigkeit der Welt garantierten.
Seit 1950 erschienen weltweit über hundert Briefmarken mit Alexander von Humboldt und/oder seinen grafischen Arbeiten als Motive. Peter Korneffel verarbeitete die komplette Sammlung der Marken aus über 25 Ländern zu dem Buch Alexander von Humboldt. Weltmarken sowie zu mehreren philatelistischen Ausstellungen und Vorträgen. Der Festvortrag vom 5.9.2019 in Berlin zum offiziellen Erscheinen der Sonderbriefmarke 250. Geburtstag Alexander von Humboldt bildet die Grundlage zu diesem Beitrag. Die Motive, ihre Gestaltung, ihre thematische Kontextualisierung, sowie die Herausgeber und die Zeitpunkte des Erscheinens der jeweiligen Briefmarken dokumentieren eine teils zufällige und teils überraschende Humboldt-Rezeption. Recherchierte Hintergründe zu den Ausgaben und Illustrationen vertiefen hierin eine bislang weitestgehend unbekannte Rezeptionsgeschichte.
Auf seiner russisch-sibirischen Reise im Jahre 1829 berührte Alexander von Humboldt zweimal Ust’-Kamenogorsk (heute kasachisch Öskemen), die kleine Stadt am Irtyš, an der Südgrenze des Russischen Reiches. Christian Suckow beschreibt Humboldts kurzen, zweitägigen Aufenthalt an dem Ort, der Ausgangs- und Endpunkt der Exkursion zur Silbergrube Zyrjanovsk im südwestlichen Altai und nach Baty an die chinesische Grenze war.
Wie stark sich im Verlauf des zurückliegenden Vierteljahrhunderts der Bekanntheitsgrad Alexander von Humboldts in der deutschsprachigen Öffentlichkeit verändert hat, zeigen nicht nur Fernsehumfragen zu den berühmtesten Deutschen, in denen Alexander von Humboldt mittlerweile figuriert, oder Fernsehserien, die über aktuelle Expeditionen berichten und auf Humboldts Namen zurückgreifen. Am deutlichsten vielleicht belegt dies der enorme Erfolg von Daniel Kehlmanns Roman Die Vermessung der Welt, der ohne die zuvor skizzierte Entwicklung nicht denkbar gewesen wäre. Es ist vor diesem Hintergrund nicht nur reizvoll, sondern aufschlußreich, sich mit dem großen Erfolg dieses kleinen Romans zu beschäftigen. Worum geht es in Die Vermessung der Welt? Und wie läßt sich das »Phänomen Kehlmann« aus etwas größerer Distanz erklären?