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Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071-2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981-2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.
During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.
Climate Benefits of Cleaner Energy Transitions in East and South Asia Through Black Carbon Reduction
(2022)
The state of air pollution has historically been tightly linked to how we produce and use energy. Air pollutant emissions over Asia are now changing rapidly due to cleaner energy transitions; however, magnitudes of benefits for climate and air quality remain poorly quantified. The associated risks involve adverse health impacts, reduced agricultural yields, reduced freshwater availability, contributions to climate change, and economic costs. We focus particularly on climate benefits of energy transitions by making first-time use of two decades of high quality observations of atmospheric loading of light-absorbing black carbon (BC) over Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia) and relating these observations to changing energy, emissions, and economic trends in India and China. Our analysis reveals that absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) due to BC has decreased substantially, by 40% over Kanpur and 60% over Beijing between 2001 and 2017, and thus became decoupled from regional economic growth. Furthermore, the resultant decrease in BC emissions and BC AAOD over Asia is regionally coherent and occurs primarily due to transitions into cleaner energies (both renewables and fossil fuels) and not due to the decrease in primary energy supply or decrease in use of fossil use and biofuels and waste. Model simulations show that BC aerosols alone contribute about half of the surface temperature change (warming) of the total forcing due to greenhouse gases, natural and internal variability, and aerosols, thus clearly revealing the climate benefits due to a reduction in BC emissions, which would significantly reduce global warming. However, this modeling study excludes responses from natural variability, circulation, and sea ice responses, which cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may mask signals from BC aerosols. Our findings show additional benefits for climate (beyond benefits of CO2 reduction) and for several other issues of sustainability over South and East Asia, provide motivation for ongoing cleaner energy production, and consumption transitions, especially when they are associated with reduced emissions of air pollutants. Such an analysis connecting the trends in energy transitions and aerosol absorption loading, unavailable so far, is crucial for simulating the aerosol climate impacts over Asia which is quite uncertain.
Maize (Zea mays L.) is a staple food whose production relies on seed stocks that largely comprise hybrid varieties. Therefore, knowledge about the molecular determinants of hybrid performance (HP) in the field can be used to devise better performing hybrids to address the demands for sustainable increase in yield. Here, we propose and test a classification-driven framework that uses metabolic profiles from in vitro grown young roots of parental lines from the Dent x Flint maize heterotic pattern to predict field HP. We identify parental analytes that best predict the metabolic inheritance patterns in 328 hybrids. We then demonstrate that these analytes are also predictive of field HP (0.64 >= r >= 0.79) and discriminate hybrids of good performance (accuracy of 87.50%). Therefore, our approach provides a cost-effective solution for hybrid selection programs.
Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) analysers are becoming increasingly common for material classification purposes. However, to achieve good classification accuracy, mostly noncompact units are used based on their stability and reproducibility. In addition, computational algorithms that require significant hardware resources are commonly applied. For performing measurement campaigns in hard-to-access environments, such as mining sites, there is a need for compact, portable, or even handheld devices capable of reaching high measurement accuracy. The optics and hardware of small (i.e., handheld) devices are limited by space and power consumption and require a compromise of the achievable spectral quality. As long as the size of such a device is a major constraint, the software is the primary field for improvement. In this study, we propose a novel combination of handheld LIBS with non-negative tensor factorisation to investigate its classification capabilities of copper minerals. The proposed approach is based on the extraction of source spectra for each mineral (with the use of tensor methods) and their labelling based on the percentage contribution within the dataset. These latent spectra are then used in a regression model for validation purposes. The application of such an approach leads to an increase in the classification score by approximately 5% compared to that obtained using commonly used classifiers such as support vector machines, linear discriminant analysis, and the k-nearest neighbours algorithm.
This paper applies Monster Theory to the use of Greek mythology in three creator-owned comic series by female writers: InSEXts (2016 – 2017) by American comic writer Marguerite Bennett and Indonesian artist working in America Ariela Kristantina as well as Eros/Psyche (2021) and Porcelain (2021) by Maria Llovet, a comic writer and artist from Barcelona. In the first volume of InSEXts, set in Victorian London, there are allusions to the Furies and Pandora, linked with the discourse of the repression of women. In the second volume, set in the late nineteenth century Paris art world, the representation of classical subjects in art becomes a means to repress women, and a goddess with a Gorgon-like appearance takes revenge on the male repressors. In Eros/Psyche the story of Eros and Psyche and broken statues forms the backdrop and context for a tale of love and deception at a girls’ school, and in Porcelain a girl is faced with a choice of paths towards Eros or Thanatos, like Herakles at the crossroads choosing between the paths of virtue and vice. With reference to Cohen’s seven theses of Monster Culture I examine how Bennett and Lovett subvert the idea of the monster and the hero.
Chronic psychosocial stress adversely affects human morbidity and is a risk factor for inflammatory disorders, liver diseases, obesity, metabolic syndrome, and major depressive disorder (MDD). In recent studies, we found an association of MDD with an increase of acid sphingomyelinase (ASM) activity. Thus, we asked whether chronic psychosocial stress as a detrimental factor contributing to the emergence of MDD would also affect ASM activity and sphingolipid (SL) metabolism. To induce chronic psychosocial stress in male mice we employed the chronic subordinate colony housing (CSC) paradigm and compared them to non-stressed single housed control (SHC) mice. We determined Asm activity in liver and serum, hepatic SL concentrations as well as hepatic mRNA expression of genes involved in SL metabolism. We found that hepatic Asm activity was increased by 28% (P = 0.006) and secretory Asm activity by 47% (P = 0.002) in stressed mice. C16:0-Cer was increased by 40% (P = 0.008). Gene expression analysis further revealed an increased expression of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha (P = 0.009) and of several genes involved in SL metabolism (Cers5, P = 0.028; Cers6, P = 0.045; Gba, P = 0.049; Gba2, P = 0.030; Ormdl2, P = 0.034; Smpdl3B; P = 0.013). Our data thus provides first evidence that chronic psychosocial stress, at least in mice, induces alterations in SL metabolism, which in turn might be involved in mediating the adverse health effects of chronic psychosocial stress and peripheral changes occurring in mood disorders.
Larix populations at the tundra-taiga ecotone in northern Siberia are highly under-represented in population genetic studies, possibly due to the remoteness of these regions that can only be accessed at extraordinary expense. The genetic signatures of populations in these boundary regions are therefore largely unknown. We aim to generate organelle reference genomes for the detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that can be used for paleogenetic studies. We present 19 complete chloroplast genomes and mitochondrial genomic sequences of larches from the southern lowlands of the Taymyr Peninsula (northernmost range of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen.), the lower Omoloy River, and the lower Kolyma River (both in the range of Larix cajanderi Mayr). The genomic data reveal 84 chloroplast SNPs and 213 putatively mitochondrial SNPs. Parsimony-based chloroplast haplotype networks show no spatial structure of individuals from different geographic origins, while the mitochondrial haplotype network shows at least a slight spatial structure with haplotypes from the Omoloy and Kolyma populations being more closely related to each other than to most of the haplotypes from the Taymyr populations. Whole genome alignments with publicly available complete chloroplast genomes of different Larix species show that among official plant barcodes only the rcbL gene contains sufficient polymorphisms, but has to be sequenced completely to distinguish the different provenances. We provide 8 novel mitochondrial SNPs that are putatively diagnostic for the separation of L. gmelinii and L. cajanderi, while 4 chloroplast SNPs have the potential to distinguish the L. gmelinii/ L. cajanderi group from other Larix species. Our organelle references can be used for a targeted primer and probe design allowing the generation of short amplicons. This is particularly important with regard to future investigations of, for example, the biogeographic history of Larix by screening ancient sedimentary DNA of Larix.
We consider a social-type network of coupled phase oscillators. Such a network consists of an active core of mutually interacting elements, and of a flock of passive units, which follow the driving from the active elements, but otherwise are not interacting. We consider a ring geometry with a long-range coupling, where active oscillators form a fluctuating chimera pattern. We show that the passive elements are strongly correlated. This is explained by negative transversal Lyapunov exponents.