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Understanding eastern African paleoclimate is critical for contextualizing early human evolution, adaptation, and dispersal, yet Pleistocene climate of this region and its governing mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the lack of long, orbitally-resolved, terrestrial paleoclimate records. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope records of rainfall from paleolake sediment cores from key time windows that resolve long-term trends, variations, and high-latitude effects on tropical African precipitation. Eastern African rainfall was dominantly controlled by variations in low-latitude summer insolation during most of the early and middle Pleistocene, with little evidence that glacial-interglacial cycles impacted rainfall until the late Pleistocene. We observe the influence of high-latitude-driven climate processes emerging from the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5) to the present, an interval when glacial-interglacial cycles were strong and insolation forcing was weak. Our results demonstrate a variable response of eastern African rainfall to low-latitude insolation forcing and high-latitude-driven climate change, likely related to the relative strengths of these forcings through time and a threshold in monsoon sensitivity. We observe little difference in mean rainfall between the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, which suggests that orbitally-driven climate variations likely played a more significant role than gradual change in the relationship between early humans and their environment.
Health app policy
(2022)
An abundant and growing supply of digital health applications (apps) exists in the commercial tech-sector, which can be bewildering for clinicians, patients, and payers. A growing challenge for the health care system is therefore to facilitate the identification of safe and effective apps for health care practitioners and patients to generate the most health benefit as well as guide payer coverage decisions. Nearly all developed countries are attempting to define policy frameworks to improve decision-making, patient care, and health outcomes in this context. This study compares the national policy approaches currently in development/use for health apps in nine countries. We used secondary data, combined with a detailed review of policy and regulatory documents, and interviews with key individuals and experts in the field of digital health policy to collect data about implemented and planned policies and initiatives. We found that most approaches aim for centralized pipelines for health app approvals, although some countries are adding decentralized elements. While the countries studied are taking diverse paths, there is nevertheless broad, international convergence in terms of requirements in the areas of transparency, health content, interoperability, and privacy and security. The sheer number of apps on the market in most countries represents a challenge for clinicians and patients. Our analyses of the relevant policies identified challenges in areas such as reimbursement, safety, and privacy and suggest that more regulatory work is needed in the areas of operationalization, implementation and international transferability of approvals. Cross-national efforts are needed around regulation and for countries to realize the benefits of these technologies.
Organizational commitments to equality change how people view women’s and men’s professional success
(2024)
To address women’s underrepresentation in high-status positions, many organizations have committed to gender equality. But is women’s professional success viewed less positively when organizations commit to women’s advancement? Do equality commitments have positive effects on evaluations of successful men? We fielded a survey experiment with a national probability sample in Germany (N = 3229) that varied employees’ gender and their organization’s commitment to equality. Respondents read about a recently promoted employee and rated how decisive of a role they thought intelligence and effort played in getting the employee promoted from 1 “Not at all decisive” to 7 “Very decisive” and the fairness of the promotion from 1 “Very unfair” to 7 “Very fair.” When organizations committed to women’s advancement rather than uniform performance standards, people believed intelligence and effort were less decisive in women’s promotions, but that intelligence was more decisive in men’s promotions. People viewed women’s promotions as least fair and men’s as most fair in organizations committed to women’s advancement. However, women’s promotions were still viewed more positively than men’s in all conditions and on all outcomes, suggesting people believed that organizations had double standards for success that required women to be smarter and work harder to be promoted, especially in organizations that did not make equality commitments.
Notwithstanding their 3 to 5% mortality, the 2.7 million envenomation-related injuries occurring annually-predominantly across Africa, Asia, and Latin America-are also major causes of morbidity. Venom toxin-damaged tissue will develop infections in some 75% of envenomation victims, with E. faecalis being a common culprit of disease; however, such infections are generally considered to be independent of envenomation.
Animal venoms are considered sterile sources of antimicrobial compounds with strong membrane-disrupting activity against multidrug-resistant bacteria.
However, venomous bite wound infections are common in developing nations. Investigating the envenomation organ and venom microbiota of five snake and two spider species, we observed venom community structures that depend on the host venomous animal species and evidenced recovery of viable microorganisms from black-necked spitting cobra (Naja nigricollis) and Indian ornamental tarantula (Poecilotheria regalis) venoms. Among the bacterial isolates recovered from N. nigricollis, we identified two venom-resistant, novel sequence types of Enterococcus faecalis whose genomes feature 16 virulence genes, indicating infectious potential, and 45 additional genes, nearly half of which improve bacterial membrane integrity.
Our findings challenge the dogma of venom sterility and indicate an increased primary infection risk in the clinical management of venomous animal bite wounds. IMPORTANCE Notwithstanding their 3 to 5% mortality, the 2.7 million envenomation-related injuries occurring annually-predominantly across Africa, Asia, and Latin America-are also major causes of morbidity. Venom toxin-damaged tissue will develop infections in some 75% of envenomation victims, with E. faecalis being a common culprit of disease; however, such infections are generally considered to be independent of envenomation. Here, we provide evidence on venom microbiota across snakes and arachnida and report on the convergent evolution mechanisms that can facilitate adaptation to black-necked cobra venom in two independent E. faecalis strains, easily misidentified by biochemical diagnostics.
Therefore, since inoculation with viable and virulence gene-harboring bacteria can occur during envenomation, acute infection risk management following envenomation is warranted, particularly for immunocompromised and malnourished victims in resource-limited settings.
These results shed light on how bacteria evolve for survival in one of the most extreme environments on Earth and how venomous bites must be also treated for infections.
Biological dinitrogen (N-2) fixation is performed solely by specialized bacteria and archaea termed diazotrophs, introducing new reactive nitrogen into aquatic environments.
Conventionally, phototrophic cyanobacteria are considered the major diazotrophs in aquatic environments. However, accumulating evidence indicates that diverse non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs (NCDs) inhabit a wide range of aquatic ecosystems, including temperate and polar latitudes, coastal environments and the deep ocean. NCDs are thus suspected to impact global nitrogen cycling decisively, yet their ecological and quantitative importance remain unknown. Here we review recent molecular and biogeochemical evidence demonstrating that pelagic NCDs inhabit and thrive especially on aggregates in diverse aquatic ecosystems. Aggregates are characterized by reduced-oxygen microzones, high C:N ratio (above Redfield) and high availability of labile carbon as compared to the ambient water.
We argue that planktonic aggregates are important loci for energetically-expensive N-2 fixation by NCDs and propose a conceptual framework for aggregate-associated N-2 fixation. Future studies on aggregate-associated diazotrophy, using novel methodological approaches, are encouraged to address the ecological relevance of NCDs for nitrogen cycling in aquatic environments.
Larix species range dynamics in Siberia since the Last Glacial captured from sedimentary ancient DNA
(2022)
Climate change is expected to cause major shifts in boreal forests which are in vast areas of Siberia dominated by two species of the deciduous needle tree larch (Larix). The species differ markedly in their ecosystem functions, thus shifts in their respective ranges are of global relevance.
However, drivers of species distribution are not well understood, in part because paleoecological data at species level are lacking. This study tracks Larix species distribution in time and space using target enrichment on sedimentary ancient DNA extracts from eight lakes across Siberia. We discovered that Larix sibirica, presently dominating in western Siberia, likely migrated to its northern distribution area only in the Holocene at around 10,000 years before present (ka BP), and had a much wider eastern distribution around 33 ka BP. Samples dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ka BP), consistently show genotypes of L. gmelinii.
Our results suggest climate as a strong determinant of species distribution in Larix and provide temporal and spatial data for species projection in a changing climate.
Using ancient sedimentary DNA from up to 50 kya, dramatic distributional shifts are documented in two dominant boreal larch species, likely guided by environmental changes suggesting climate as a strong determinant of species distribution.
Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing
(2024)
Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learning assisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between –5% to –21% across the schemes (–4% to –15% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of “what works” and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy.
Data-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts
(2022)
Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted.
We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall.
We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up.
We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
The immense advances in computer power achieved in the last decades have had a significant impact in Earth science, providing valuable research outputs that allow the simulation of complex natural processes and systems, and generating improved forecasts. The development and implementation of innovative geoscientific software is currently evolving towards a sustainable and efficient development by integrating models of different aspects of the Earth system. This will set the foundation for a future digital twin of the Earth. The codification and update of this software require great effort from research groups and therefore, it needs to be preserved for its reuse by future generations of geoscientists. Here, we report on Geo-Soft-CoRe, a Geoscientific Software & Code Repository, hosted at the archive DIGITAL.CSIC. This is an open source, multidisciplinary and multiscale collection of software and code developed to analyze different aspects of the Earth system, encompassing tools to: 1) analyze climate variability; 2) assess hazards, and 3) characterize the structure and dynamics of the solid Earth. Due to the broad range of applications of these software packages, this collection is useful not only for basic research in Earth science, but also for applied research and educational purposes, reducing the gap between the geosciences and the society. By providing each software and code with a permanent identifier (DOI), we ensure its self-sustainability and accomplish the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principles. Therefore, we aim for a more transparent science, transferring knowledge in an easier way to the geoscience community, and encouraging an integrated use of computational infrastructure.
Crop model intercomparison studies have mostly focused on the assessment of predictive capabilities for crop development using weather and basic soil data from the same location. Still challenging is the model performance when considering complex interrelations between soil and crop dynamics under a changing climate. The objective of this study was to test the agronomic crop and environmental flux-related performance of a set of crop models. The aim was to predict weighing lysimeter-based crop (i.e., agronomic) and water-related flux or state data (i.e., environmental) obtained for the same soil monoliths that were taken from their original environment and translocated to regions with different climatic conditions, after model calibration at the original site. Eleven models were deployed in the study. The lysimeter data (2014-2018) were from the Dedelow (Dd), Bad Lauchstadt (BL), and Selhausen (Se) sites of the TERENO (TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories) SOILCan network. Soil monoliths from Dd were transferred to the drier and warmer BL site and the wetter and warmer Se site, which allowed a comparison of similar soil and crop under varying climatic conditions. The model parameters were calibrated using an identical set of crop- and soil-related data from Dd. Environmental fluxes and crop growth of Dd soil were predicted for conditions at BL and Se sites using the calibrated models. The comparison of predicted and measured data of Dd lysimeters at BL and Se revealed differences among models. At site BL, the crop models predicted agronomic and environmental components similarly well. Model performance values indicate that the environmental components at site Se were better predicted than agronomic ones. The multi-model mean was for most observations the better predictor compared with those of individual models. For Se site conditions, crop models failed to predict site-specific crop development indicating that climatic conditions (i.e., heat stress) were outside the range of variation in the data sets considered for model calibration. For improving predictive ability of crop models (i.e., productivity and fluxes), more attention should be paid to soil-related data (i.e., water fluxes and system states) when simulating soil-crop-climate interrelations in changing climatic conditions.