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Larix species range dynamics in Siberia since the Last Glacial captured from sedimentary ancient DNA
(2022)
Climate change is expected to cause major shifts in boreal forests which are in vast areas of Siberia dominated by two species of the deciduous needle tree larch (Larix). The species differ markedly in their ecosystem functions, thus shifts in their respective ranges are of global relevance.
However, drivers of species distribution are not well understood, in part because paleoecological data at species level are lacking. This study tracks Larix species distribution in time and space using target enrichment on sedimentary ancient DNA extracts from eight lakes across Siberia. We discovered that Larix sibirica, presently dominating in western Siberia, likely migrated to its northern distribution area only in the Holocene at around 10,000 years before present (ka BP), and had a much wider eastern distribution around 33 ka BP. Samples dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ka BP), consistently show genotypes of L. gmelinii.
Our results suggest climate as a strong determinant of species distribution in Larix and provide temporal and spatial data for species projection in a changing climate.
Using ancient sedimentary DNA from up to 50 kya, dramatic distributional shifts are documented in two dominant boreal larch species, likely guided by environmental changes suggesting climate as a strong determinant of species distribution.
Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing
(2024)
Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learning assisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between –5% to –21% across the schemes (–4% to –15% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of “what works” and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy.
Data-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts
(2022)
Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted.
We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall.
We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up.
We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
The immense advances in computer power achieved in the last decades have had a significant impact in Earth science, providing valuable research outputs that allow the simulation of complex natural processes and systems, and generating improved forecasts. The development and implementation of innovative geoscientific software is currently evolving towards a sustainable and efficient development by integrating models of different aspects of the Earth system. This will set the foundation for a future digital twin of the Earth. The codification and update of this software require great effort from research groups and therefore, it needs to be preserved for its reuse by future generations of geoscientists. Here, we report on Geo-Soft-CoRe, a Geoscientific Software & Code Repository, hosted at the archive DIGITAL.CSIC. This is an open source, multidisciplinary and multiscale collection of software and code developed to analyze different aspects of the Earth system, encompassing tools to: 1) analyze climate variability; 2) assess hazards, and 3) characterize the structure and dynamics of the solid Earth. Due to the broad range of applications of these software packages, this collection is useful not only for basic research in Earth science, but also for applied research and educational purposes, reducing the gap between the geosciences and the society. By providing each software and code with a permanent identifier (DOI), we ensure its self-sustainability and accomplish the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principles. Therefore, we aim for a more transparent science, transferring knowledge in an easier way to the geoscience community, and encouraging an integrated use of computational infrastructure.
Crop model intercomparison studies have mostly focused on the assessment of predictive capabilities for crop development using weather and basic soil data from the same location. Still challenging is the model performance when considering complex interrelations between soil and crop dynamics under a changing climate. The objective of this study was to test the agronomic crop and environmental flux-related performance of a set of crop models. The aim was to predict weighing lysimeter-based crop (i.e., agronomic) and water-related flux or state data (i.e., environmental) obtained for the same soil monoliths that were taken from their original environment and translocated to regions with different climatic conditions, after model calibration at the original site. Eleven models were deployed in the study. The lysimeter data (2014-2018) were from the Dedelow (Dd), Bad Lauchstadt (BL), and Selhausen (Se) sites of the TERENO (TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories) SOILCan network. Soil monoliths from Dd were transferred to the drier and warmer BL site and the wetter and warmer Se site, which allowed a comparison of similar soil and crop under varying climatic conditions. The model parameters were calibrated using an identical set of crop- and soil-related data from Dd. Environmental fluxes and crop growth of Dd soil were predicted for conditions at BL and Se sites using the calibrated models. The comparison of predicted and measured data of Dd lysimeters at BL and Se revealed differences among models. At site BL, the crop models predicted agronomic and environmental components similarly well. Model performance values indicate that the environmental components at site Se were better predicted than agronomic ones. The multi-model mean was for most observations the better predictor compared with those of individual models. For Se site conditions, crop models failed to predict site-specific crop development indicating that climatic conditions (i.e., heat stress) were outside the range of variation in the data sets considered for model calibration. For improving predictive ability of crop models (i.e., productivity and fluxes), more attention should be paid to soil-related data (i.e., water fluxes and system states) when simulating soil-crop-climate interrelations in changing climatic conditions.
Metabolic alterations precede cardiometabolic disease onset. Here we present ceramide- and dihydroceramide-profiling data from a nested case-cohort (type 2 diabetes [T2D, n = 775]; cardiovascular disease [CVD, n = 551]; random subcohort [n = 1137]) in the prospective EPIC-Potsdam study. We apply the novel NetCoupler-algorithm to link a data-driven (dihydro)ceramide network to T2D and CVD risk. Controlling for confounding by other (dihydro)ceramides, ceramides C18:0 and C22:0 and dihydroceramides C20:0 and C22:2 are associated with higher and ceramide C20:0 and dihydroceramide C26:1 with lower T2D risk. Ceramide C16:0 and dihydroceramide C22:2 are associated with higher CVD risk. Genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomization analyses support a role of ceramide C22:0 in T2D etiology. Our results also suggest that (dh)ceramides partly mediate the putative adverse effect of high red meat consumption and benefits of coffee consumption on T2D risk. Thus, (dihydro)ceramides may play a critical role in linking genetic predisposition and dietary habits to cardiometabolic disease risk.
“Ick bin een Berlina”
(2024)
Background: Robots are increasingly used as interaction partners with humans. Social robots are designed to follow expected behavioral norms when engaging with humans and are available with different voices and even accents. Some studies suggest that people prefer robots to speak in the user’s dialect, while others indicate a preference for different dialects.
Methods: Our study examined the impact of the Berlin dialect on perceived trustworthiness and competence of a robot. One hundred and twenty German native speakers (Mage = 32 years, SD = 12 years) watched an online video featuring a NAO robot speaking either in the Berlin dialect or standard German and assessed its trustworthiness and competence.
Results: We found a positive relationship between participants’ self-reported Berlin dialect proficiency and trustworthiness in the dialect-speaking robot. Only when controlled for demographic factors, there was a positive association between participants’ dialect proficiency, dialect performance and their assessment of robot’s competence for the standard German-speaking robot. Participants’ age, gender, length of residency in Berlin, and device used to respond also influenced assessments. Finally, the robot’s competence positively predicted its trustworthiness.
Discussion: Our results inform the design of social robots and emphasize the importance of device control in online experiments.
Dysfunctional islets of Langerhans are a hallmark of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We hypothesize that differences in islet gene expression alternative splicing which can contribute to altered protein function also participate in islet dysfunction. RNA sequencing (RNAseq) data from islets of obese diabetes-resistant and diabetes-susceptible mice were analyzed for alternative splicing and its putative genetic and epigenetic modulators. We focused on the expression levels of chromatin modifiers and SNPs in regulatory sequences. We identified alternative splicing events in islets of diabetes-susceptible mice amongst others in genes linked to insulin secretion, endocytosis or ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis pathways. The expression pattern of 54 histones and chromatin modifiers, which may modulate splicing, were markedly downregulated in islets of diabetic animals. Furthermore, diabetes-susceptible mice carry SNPs in RNA-binding protein motifs and in splice sites potentially responsible for alternative splicing events. They also exhibit a larger exon skipping rate, e.g., in the diabetes gene Abcc8, which might affect protein function. Expression of the neuronal splicing factor Srrm4 which mediates inclusion of microexons in mRNA transcripts was markedly lower in islets of diabetes-prone compared to diabetes-resistant mice, correlating with a preferential skipping of SRRM4 target exons. The repression of Srrm4 expression is presumably mediated via a higher expression of miR-326-3p and miR-3547-3p in islets of diabetic mice. Thus, our study suggests that an altered splicing pattern in islets of diabetes-susceptible mice may contribute to an elevated T2D risk.
Pedogenic carbonate is widespread at mid latitudes where warm and dry conditions favor soil carbonate growth from spring to fall. The mechanisms and timing of pedogenic carbonate formation are more ambiguous in the tropical domain, where long periods of soil water saturation and high soil respiration enhance calcite dissolution. This paper provides stable carbon, oxygen and clumped isotope values from Quaternary and Miocene pedogenic carbonates in the tropical domain of Myanmar, in areas characterized by warm (>18°C) winters and annual rainfall up to 1,700 mm. We show that carbonate growth in Myanmar is delayed to the driest and coldest months of the year by sustained monsoonal rainfall from mid spring to late fall. The range of isotopic variability in Quaternary pedogenic carbonates can be solely explained by temporal changes of carbonate growth within the dry season, from winter to early spring. We propose that high soil moisture year-round in the tropical domain narrows carbonate growth to the driest months and makes it particularly sensitive to the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This sensitivity is also enabled by high winter temperatures, allowing carbonate growth to occur outside the warmest months of the year. This high sensitivity is expected to be more prominent in the geological record during times with higher temperatures and greater expansion of the tropical realm. Clumped isotope temperatures, δ13C and δ18O values of tropical pedogenic carbonates are impacted by changes of both rainfall seasonality and surface temperatures; this sensitivity can potentially be used to track past tropical rainfall distribution.
The genus Microhyla Tschudi, 1838 includes 52 species and is one of the most diverse genera of the family Microhylidae, being the most species-rich taxon of the Asian subfamily Microhylinae. The recent, rapid description of numerous new species of Microhyla with complex phylogenetic relationships has made the taxonomy of the group especially challenging. Several recent phylogenetic studies suggested paraphyly of Microhyla with respect to Glyphoglossus Gunther, 1869, and revealed three major phylogenetic lineages of mid-Eocene origin within this assemblage. However, comprehensive works assessing morphological variation among and within these lineages are absent. In the present study we investigate the generic taxonomy of Microhyla-Glyphoglossus assemblage based on a new phylogeny including 57 species, comparative morphological analysis of skeletons from cleared-and-stained specimens for 23 species, and detailed descriptions of generalized osteology based on volume-rendered micro-CT scans for five speciesal-together representing all major lineages within the group. The results confirm three highly divergent and well-supported clades that correspond with external and osteological morphological characteristics, as well as respective geographic distribution. Accordingly, acknowledging ancient divergence between these lineages and their significant morphological differentiation, we propose to consider these three lineages as distinct genera: Microhyla sensu stricto, Glyphoglossus, and a newly described genus, Nanohyla gen. nov.