Institut für Physik und Astronomie
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Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near-Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best-known indices are calculated from ground-based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM-H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root-mean-square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices. Plain Language Summary One aspect of space weather is a magnetic signature across the surface of the Earth. The creation of this signal involves nonlinear interactions of electromagnetic forces on charged particles and can therefore be difficult to predict. The perturbations that space storms and other activity causes in some observation sets, however, are fairly regular in their pattern. Some of these measurements have been compiled together into a single value, a geomagnetic index. Several such indices exist, providing a global estimate of the activity in different parts of geospace. Models have been developed to predict the time series of these indices, and various statistical methods are used to assess their performance at reproducing the original index. Existing studies of geomagnetic indices, however, use different approaches to quantify the performance of the model. This document defines a standardized set of statistical analyses as a baseline set of comparison tools that are recommended to assess geomagnetic index prediction models. It also discusses best practices, limitations, uncertainties, and caveats to consider when conducting a model assessment.
We perform a statistical study calculating electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave amplitudes based off in situ plasma measurements taken by the Van Allen Probes’ (1.1–5.8 Re) Helium, Oxygen, Proton, Electron (HOPE) instrument. Calculated wave amplitudes are compared to EMIC waves observed by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science on board the Van Allen Probes during the same period. The survey covers a 22-month period (1 November 2012 to 31 August 2014), a full Van Allen Probe magnetic local time (MLT) precession. The linear theory proxy was used to identify EMIC wave events with plasma conditions favorable for EMIC wave excitation. Two hundred and thirty-two EMIC wave events (103 H+-band and 129 He+-band) were selected for this comparison. Nearly all events selected are observed beyond L = 4. Results show that calculated wave amplitudes exclusively using the in situ HOPE measurements produce amplitudes too low compared to the observed EMIC wave amplitudes. Hot proton anisotropy (Ahp) distributions are asymmetric in MLT within the inner (L < 7) magnetosphere with peak (minimum) Ahp, ∼0.81 to 1.00 (∼0.62), observed in the dawn (dusk), 0000 < MLT ≤ 1200 (1200 < MLT ≤ 2400), sectors. Measurements of Ahp are found to decrease in the presence of EMIC wave activity. Ahp amplification factors are determined and vary with respect to EMIC wave-band and MLT. He+-band events generally require double (quadruple) the measured Ahp for the dawn (dusk) sector to reproduce the observed EMIC wave amplitudes.
Imaging Raman spectroscopy can be used to identify cancerous tissue. Traditionally, a step-by-step scanning of the sample is applied to generate a Raman image, which, however, is too slow for routine examination of patients. By transferring the technique of integral field spectroscopy (IFS) from astronomy to Raman imaging, it becomes possible to record entire Raman images quickly within a single exposure, without the need for a tedious scanning procedure. An IFS-based Raman imaging setup is presented, which is capable of measuring skin ex vivo or in vivo. It is demonstrated how Raman images of healthy and cancerous skin biopsies were recorded and analyzed. (C) The Authors. Published by SPIE under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.
We present a new precision measurement of gas-phase abundances of S, O, N, Si, Fe, P, Al, Ca as well as molecular hydrogen (H-2) in the Leading Arm (region II, LA II) of the Magellanic Stream (MS) toward the Seyfert galaxy NGC 3783. The results are based on high-quality archival ultraviolet/optical/radio data from various different instruments (HST/STIS, FUSE, AAT, GBT, GB140 ft, ATCA). Our study updates previous results from lower-resolution data and provides for the first time a self-consistent component model of the complex multiphase absorber, delivering important constraints on the nature and origin of LA II. We derive a uniform, moderate a abundance in the two main absorber groups at +245 and +190 km s(-1) of alpha/H = 0.30 +/- 0.05 solar, a low nitrogen abundance of N/H = 0.05 +/- 0.01 solar, and a high dust content with substantial dust depletion values for Si, Fe, Al, and Ca. These a, N, and dust abundances in LA II are similar to those observed in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). From the analysis of the H2 absorption, we determine a high thermal pressure of P/k approximate to 1680 K cm(-3) in LA II, in line with the idea that LA II is located in the inner Milky Way halo at a z-height of < 20 kpc, where it hydrodynamically interacts with the ambient hot coronal gas. Our study supports a scenario in which LA II stems from the breakup of a metal- and dust-enriched progenitor cloud that was recently (200-500 Myr ago) stripped from the SMC.
We employ ultrafast X-ray diffraction to compare the lattice dynamics of laser-excited continuous and granular FePt films on MgO (100) substrates. Contrary to recent results on free-standing granular films, we observe in both cases a pronounced and long-lasting out-of-plane expansion. We attribute this discrepancy to the in-plane expansion, which is suppressed by symmetry in continuous films. Granular films on substrates are less constrained and already show a reduced out-of-plane contraction. Via the Poisson effect, out-of-plane contractions drive in-plane expansion and vice versa. Consistently, the granular film exhibits a short-lived out-of-plane contraction driven by ultrafast demagnetization which is followed by a reduced and delayed expansion. From the acoustic reflections of the observed strain waves at the film-substrate interface, we extract a 13% reduction of the elastic constants in thin 10 nm FePt films compared to bulk-like samples. (C) 2018 Author(s).
Cosmic-ray electrons and positrons (CREs) at GeV-TeV energies are a unique probe of our local Galactic neighborhood. CREs lose energy rapidly via synchrotron radiation and inverse-Compton scattering processes while propagating within the Galaxy, and these losses limit their propagation distance. For electrons with TeV energies, the limit is on the order of a kiloparsec. Within that distance, there are only a few known astrophysical objects capable of accelerating electrons to such high energies. It is also possible that the CREs are the products of the annihilation or decay of heavy dark matter (DM) particles. VERITAS, an array of imaging air Cherenkov telescopes in southern Arizona, is primarily utilized for gamma-ray astronomy but also simultaneously collects CREs during all observations. We describe our methods of identifying CREs in VERITAS data and present an energy spectrum, extending from 300 GeV to 5 TeV, obtained from approximately 300 hours of observations. A single power-law fit is ruled out in VERITAS data. We find that the spectrum of CREs is consistent with a broken power law, with a break energy at 710 +/- 40(stat) +/- 140(syst) GeV.
Aims. We study the evolution of an arch filament system (AFS) and of its individual arch filaments to learn about the processes occurring in them. Methods. We observed the AFS at the GREGOR solar telescope on Tenerife at high cadence with the very fast spectroscopic mode of the GREGOR Infrared Spectrograph (GRIS) in the He I 10 830 angstrom spectral range. The He I triplet profiles were fitted with analytic functions to infer line-of-sight (LOS) velocities to follow plasma motions within the AFS. Results. We tracked the temporal evolution of an individual arch filament over its entire lifetime, as seen in the He I 10 830 angstrom triplet. The arch filament expanded in height and extended in length from 13 ' to 21 '. The lifetime of this arch filament is about 30 min. About 11 min after the arch filament is seen in He I, the loop top starts to rise with an average Doppler velocity of 6 km s(-1). Only two minutes later, plasma drains down with supersonic velocities towards the footpoints reaching a peak velocity of up to 40 km s(-1) in the chromosphere. The temporal evolution of He I 10 830 angstrom profiles near the leading pore showed almost ubiquitous dual red components of the He I triplet, indicating strong downflows, along with material nearly at rest within the same resolution element during the whole observing time.
Forest and steppe communities in the Altai region of Central Asia are threatened by changing climate and anthropogenic pressure. Specifically, increasing drought and grazing pressure may cause collapses of moisture-demanding plant communities, particularly forests. Knowledge about past vegetation and fire responses to climate and land use changes may help anticipating future ecosystem risks, given that it has the potential to disclose mechanisms and processes that govern ecosystem vulnerability. We present a unique paleoecological record from the high-alpine Tsambagarav glacier in the Mongolian Altai that provides novel large-scale information on vegetation, fire and pollution with an exceptional temporal resolution and precision. Our palynological record identifies several late-Holocene boreal forest expansions, contractions and subsequent recoveries. Maximum forest expansions occurred at 3000-2800 BC, 2400-2100 BC, and 1900-1800 BC. After 1800 BC mixed boreal forest communities irrecoverably declined. Fires reached a maximum at 1600 BC, 200 years after the final forest collapse. Our multiproxy data suggest that burning peaked in response to dead biomass accumulation resulting from forest diebacks. Vegetation and fire regimes partly decoupled from climate after 1700 AD, when atmospheric industrial pollution began, and land use intensified. We conclude that moisture availability was more important than temperature for past vegetation dynamics, in particular for forest loss and steppe expansion. The past Mongolian Altai evidence implies that in the future forests of the Russian Altai may collapse in response to reduced moisture availability.
Stochastically triggered photospheric light variations reaching similar to 40 mmag peak-to-valley amplitudes have been detected in the O8 Iaf supergiant V973 Scorpii as the outcome of 2 months of high-precision time-resolved photometric observations with the BRIght Target Explorer (BRITE) nanosatellites. The amplitude spectrum of the time series photometry exhibits a pronounced broad bump in the low-frequency regime (less than or similar to 0.9 d(-1)) where several prominent frequencies are detected. A time-frequency analysis of the observations reveals typical mode lifetimes of the order of 5-10 d. The overall features of the observed brightness amplitude spectrum of V973 Sco match well with those extrapolated from two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of convectively driven internal gravity waves randomly excited from deep in the convective cores of massive stars. An alternative or additional possible source of excitation from a sub-surface convection zone needs to be explored in future theoretical investigations.
We discovered two bright DO-type white dwarfs, GALEXJ053628.3+544854 (J0536+5448) and GALEXJ231128.0+292935(J2311+2929), which rank among the eight brightest DO-type white dwarfs known. Our non-LTE model atmosphere analysis reveals effective temperatures and surface gravities of T-eff = 80000 +/- 4600K and log g = 8.25 +/- 0.15 for J0536+5448 and T-eff = 69400 +/- 900K and log g = 7.80 +/- 0.06 for J2311+2929. The latter shows a significant amount of carbon in its atmosphere (C = 0.003(-0.002)(+0.005), by mass), while for J0536+5448 we could derive only an upper limit of C < 0.003. Furthermore, we calculated spectroscopic distances for the two stars and found a good agreement with the distances derived from the Gaia parallaxes.
Context. Among the intermediate-mass magnetic chemically peculiar (MCP) stars, CU Vir is one of the most intriguing objects. Its 100% circularly polarized beams of radio emission sweep the Earth as the star rotates, thereby making this strongly magnetic star the prototype of a class of nondegenerate stellar radio pulsars. While CU Vir is well studied in radio, its high-energy properties are not known. Yet, X-ray emission is expected from stellar magnetospheres and confined stellar winds. Aims. Using X-ray data we aim to test CU Vir for intrinsic X-ray emission and investigate mechanisms responsible for its generation. Methods. We present X-ray observations performed with XMM-Newton and Chandra and study obtained X-ray images, light curves, and spectra. Basic X-ray properties are derived from spectral modelling and are compared with model predictions. In this context we investigate potential thermal and nonthermal X-ray emission scenarios. Results. We detect an X-ray source at the position of CU Vir. With LX approximate to 3 x 10(28) erg s(-1) it is moderately X-ray bright, but the spectrum is extremely hard compared to other Ap stars. Spectral modelling requires multi-component models with predominant hot plasma at temperatures of about T-X = 25MK or, alternatively, a nonthermal spectral component. Both types of model provide a virtually equivalent description of the X-ray spectra. The Chandra observation was performed six years later than those by XMM-Newton, yet the source has similar X-ray flux and spectrum, suggesting a steady and persistent X-ray emission. This is further confirmed by the X-ray light curves that show only mild X-ray variability. Conclusions. CU Vir is also an exceptional star at X-ray energies. To explain its full X-ray properties, a generating mechanism beyond standard explanations, like the presence of a low-mass companion or magnetically confined wind-shocks, is required. Magnetospheric activity might be present or, as proposed for fast-rotating strongly magnetic Bp stars, the X-ray emission of CU Vir is predominantly auroral in nature.
In ferroelectrets, the piezoelectricity stems from the charges of both polarities trapped on the inner surfaces of the cavities in the material, so that its thermal stability is defined by the stability of the respective charges. In the present work, a template-based lamination technique has been employed to fabricate tubular-channel ferroelectrets from fluoroethylenepropylene (FEP) films. It has been shown that the piezoelectricity in FEP ferroelectrets decays at relatively low temperatures due to the inherently lower thermal stability of the positive charge. In order to improve charge trapping, we have treated both FEP films and inner surfaces of the ferroelectret cavities with titanium-tetrachloride vapor, using the atomic-layer-deposition technique. Using surface-potential-decay measurements on FEP films, we have found that the charge-decay curves shift by more than 100 degrees C to the higher temperatures as a result of the surface treatment. Direct measurements of piezoelectric d(33) coefficients as a function of temperature have shown that the piezoelectric stability is likewise improved with the d(33)-decay curves shifted by 60 degrees C to the right. The improvement of electret/ferroelectret properties can be attributed to the formation of the deeper traps on the chemically modified FEP surface. SEM micrographs and EDS analysis reveal island-like structures with titanium- and oxygen-containing species that can be responsible for the deeper trapping of the electret charges. Published by AIP Publishing.
In recent years, complex network analysis facilitated the identification of universal and unexpected patterns in complex climate systems. However, the analysis and representation of a multiscale complex relationship that exists in the global climate system are limited. A logical first step in addressing this issue is to construct multiple networks over different timescales. Therefore, we propose to apply the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure, which is a combination of two state-of-the-art methods, viz. wavelet and Pearson’s correlation, for investigating multiscale processes through complex networks. Firstly we decompose the data over different timescales using the wavelet approach and subsequently construct a corresponding network by Pearson’s correlation. The proposed approach is illustrated and tested on two synthetics and one real-world example. The first synthetic case study shows the efficacy of the proposed approach to unravel scale-specific connections, which are often undiscovered at a single scale. The second synthetic case study illustrates that by dividing and constructing a separate network for each time window we can detect significant changes in the signal structure. The real-world example investigates the behavior of the global sea surface temperature (SST) network at different timescales. Intriguingly, we notice that spatial dependent structure in SST evolves temporally. Overall, the proposed measure has an immense potential to provide essential insights on understanding and extending complex multivariate process studies at multiple scales.
A rapidly increasing number of systems is identified in which the stochastic motion of tracer particles follows the Brownian law < r(2)(t)> similar or equal to Dt yet the distribution of particle displacements is strongly non-Gaussian. A central approach to describe this effect is the diffusing diffusivity (DD) model in which the diffusion coefficient itself is a stochastic quantity, mimicking heterogeneities of the environment encountered by the tracer particle on its path. We here quantify in terms of analytical and numerical approaches the first passage behaviour of the DD model. We observe significant modifications compared to Brownian-Gaussian diffusion, in particular that the DD model may have a faster first passage dynamics. Moreover we find a universal crossover point of the survival probability independent of the initial condition.
During development in human erythrocytes, the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum internalizes a large part of the cellular content of the host cell. The internalized cytosol, consisting largely of hemoglobin, is transported to the parasite’s food vacuole where it is degraded, providing nutrients and space for growth. This host cell cytosol uptake (HCCU) is crucial for parasite survival but the parasite proteins mediating this process remain obscure. Here, we identify P. falciparum VPS45 as an essential factor in HCCU. Conditional inactivation of PfVPS45 led to an accumulation of host cell cytosol-filled vesicles within the parasite and inhibited the delivery of hemoglobin to the parasite's digestive vacuole, resulting in arrested parasite growth. A proportion of these HCCU vesicle intermediates was positive for phosphatidylinositol 3-phosphate, suggesting endosomal characteristics. Thus PfVPS45 provides insight into the elusive machinery of the ingestion pathway in a parasite that contains an endolysosomal system heavily repurposed for protein secretion.
Levy walks are continuous time random walks with spatio-temporal coupling of jump lengths and waiting times, often used to model superdiffusive spreading processes such as animals searching for food, tracer motion in weakly chaotic systems, or even the dynamics in quantum systems such as cold atoms. In the simplest version Levy walks move with a finite speed. Here, we present an extension of the Levy walk scenario for the case when external force fields influence the motion. The resulting motion is a combination of the response to the deterministic force acting on the particle, changing its velocity according to the principle of total energy conservation, and random velocity reversals governed by the distribution of waiting times. For the fact that the motion stays conservative, that is, on a constant energy surface, our scenario is fundamentally different from thermal motion in the same external potentials. In particular, we present results for the velocity and position distributions for single well potentials of different steepness. The observed dynamics with its continuous velocity changes enriches the theory of Levy walk processes and will be of use in a variety of systems, for which the particles are externally confined.
We study generalized diffusion-wave equation in which the second order time derivative is replaced by an integro-differential operator. It yields time fractional and distributed order time fractional diffusion-wave equations as particular cases. We consider different memory kernels of the integro-differential operator, derive corresponding fundamental solutions, specify the conditions of their non-negativity and calculate the mean squared displacement for all cases. In particular, we introduce and study generalized diffusion-wave equations with a regularized Prabhakar derivative of single and distributed orders. The equations considered can be used for modeling the broad spectrum of anomalous diffusion processes and various transitions between different diffusion regimes.
We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
The presence of extreme horizontal branch (EHB) and blue hook stars in some Galactic globular clusters (GGCs) constitutes one of the remaining mysteries of stellar evolution. While several evolutionary scenarios have been proposed to explain the characteristics of this peculiar population of evolved stars, their observational verification has been limited by the availability of spectroscopic data for a statistically significant sample of such objects in any single GGC. We recently launched the SHOTGLAS project with the aim of providing a comprehensive picture of this intriguing stellar population in terms of spectroscopic properties for all readily accessible GGCs hosting an EHB. In this first paper, we focus on omega Cen, a peculiar, massive GGC that hosts multiple stellar populations. We use non-LTE model atmospheres to derive atmospheric parameters (Te ff, log g and N(He) / N(H)) and spectroscopic masses for 152 EHB stars in the cluster. This constitutes the largest spectroscopic sample of EHB stars ever analyzed in a GGC and represents similar to 20% of the EHB population of omega Cen. We also search for close binaries among these stars based on radial velocity variations. Our results show that the EHB population of omega Cen is divided into three spectroscopic groups that are very distinct in the Te ff helium abundance plane. The coolest sdB-type stars (Te ff. 30 000 K) have a hydrogen-rich atmosphere, populate the theoretical EHB region in the Te ff log g plane, and form 26% of our sample. The hottest sdO-type stars (Te ff & 42 000 K) make up 10% of the sample, have a hydrogen-rich atmosphere and are thought to be in a post-EHB evolutionary phase. The majority of our sample is found at intermediate temperatures and consists of sdOB stars that have roughly solar or super-solar atmospheric helium abundances. It is these objects that constitute the blue hook at V > 18 : 5 mag in the omega Cen color-magnitude diagram. Interestingly, the helium-enriched sdOBs do not have a significant counterpart population in the Galactic field, indicating that their formation is dependent on the particular environment found in omega Cen and other select GGCs. Another major di ff erence between the EHB stars in omega Cen and the field is the fraction of close binaries. From our radial velocity survey we identify two binary candidates, however no orbital solutions could be determined. We estimate an EHB close binary fraction of similar to 5% in omega Cen. This low fraction is in line with findings for other GGCs, but in sharp contrast to the situation in the field, where around 50% of the sdB stars reside in close binaries. Finally, the mass distribution derived is very similar for all three spectroscopic groups, however the average mass (0.38 M fi) is lower than that expected from stellar evolution theory. While this mass conundrum has previously been noted for EHB stars in omega Cen, it so far appears to be unique to that cluster.