Reservoir-triggered seismicity has been observed near dams during construction, impoundment, and cyclic filling in many parts of the earth. In Turkey, the number of dams has increased substantially over the last decade, with Ataturk Dam being the largest dam in Turkey with a total water capacity of 48.7 billion m(3). After the construction of the dam, the monitoring network has improved. Considering earthquakes above the long-term completeness magnitude of M-C = 3.5, the local seismicity rate has substantially increased after the filling of the reservoir. Recently, two damaging earthquakes of M-w 5.5 and M-w 5.1 occurred in the town of Samsat near the Ataturk Reservoir in 2017 and 2018, respectively. In this study, we analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity and its source properties in relation to the temporal water-level variations and the stresses resulting from surface loading and pore-pressure diffusion. We find that water-level and seismicity rate are anti-correlated, which is explained by the stabilization effect of the gravitational induced stress imposed by water loading on the local faults. On the other hand, we find that the overall effective stress in the seismogenic zone increased over decades due to pore-pressure diffusion, explaining the enhanced background seismicity during recent years. Additionally, we observe a progressive decrease of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Our results indicate that the stressing rate finally focused on the region where the two damaging earthquakes occurred in 2017 and 2018.
On 2012 May 20 and 29, two damaging earthquakes with magnitudes M-w 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, struck the Emilia-Romagna region in the sedimentary Po Plain, Northern Italy, causing 26 fatalities, significant damage to historical buildings and substantial impact to the economy of the region. The earthquake sequence included four more aftershocks with M-w, >= 5.0, all at shallow depths (about 7-9 km), with similar WNW-ESE striking reverse mechanism. The timeline of the sequence suggests significant static stress interaction between the largest events. We perform here a detailed source inversion, first adopting a point source approximation and considering pure double couple and full moment tensor source models. We compare different extended source inversion approaches for the two largest events, and find that the rupture occurred in both cases along a subhorizontal plane, dipping towards SSW Directivity is well detected for the May 20 main shock, indicating that the rupture propagated unilaterally towards SE. Based on the focal mechanism solution, we further estimate the co-seismic static stress change induced by the May 20 event. By using the rate-and-state model and a Poissonian earthquake occurrence, we infer that the second largest event of May 29 was induced with a probability in the range 0.2-0.4. This suggests that the segment of fault was already prone to rupture. Finally, we estimate peak ground accelerations for the two main events as occurred separately or simultaneously. For the scenario involving hypothetical rupture areas of both main events, we estimate M-w = 6.3 and an increase of ground acceleration by 50 per cent. The approach we propose may help to quantify rapidly which regions are invested by a significant increase of the hazard, bearing the potential for large aftershocks or even a second main shock.
The 2014 April 1, M-w 8.1 Iquique (Chile) earthquake struck in the Northern Chile seismic gap. With a rupture length of less than 200 km, it left unbroken large segments of the former gap. Early studies were able to model the main rupture features but results are ambiguous with respect to the role of aseismic slip and left open questions on the remaining hazard at the Northern Chile gap. A striking observation of the 2014 earthquake has been its extensive preparation phase, with more than 1300 events with magnitude above M-L 3, occurring during the 15 months preceding the main shock. Increasing seismicity rates and observed peak magnitudes accompanied the last three weeks before the main shock. Thanks to the large data sets of regional recordings, we assess the precursor activity, compare foreshocks and aftershocks and model rupture preparation and rupture effects. To tackle inversion challenges for moderate events with an asymmetric network geometry, we use full waveforms techniques to locate events, map the seismicity rate and derive source parameters, obtaining moment tensors for more than 300 events (magnitudes M-w 4.0-8.1) in the period 2013 January 1-2014 April 30. This unique data set of fore- and aftershocks is investigated to distinguish rupture process models and models of strain and stress rotation during an earthquake. Results indicate that the spatial distributions of foreshocks delineated the shallower part of the rupture areas of the main shock and its largest aftershock, well matching the spatial extension of the aftershocks cloud. Most moment tensors correspond to almost pure double couple thrust mechanisms, consistent with the slab orientation. Whereas no significant differences are observed among thrust mechanisms in different areas, nor among thrust foreshocks and aftershocks, the early aftershock sequence is characterized by the presence of normal fault mechanisms, striking parallel to the trench but dipping westward. These events likely occurred in the shallow wedge structure close to the slab interface and are consequence of the increased extensional stress in this region after the largest events. The overall stress inversion result suggests a minor stress rotation after the main shock, but a significant release of the deviatoric stress. The temporal change in the distribution of focal mechanisms can also be explained in terms of the spatial heterogeneity of the stress field: under such interpretation, the potential of a large megathrust earthquake breaking a larger segment offshore Northern Chile remains high.
A spatially localized seismic sequence originated few tens of kilometres offshore the Mediterranean coast of Spain, close to the Ebro river delta, starting on 2013 September 5, and lasting at least until 2013 October. The sequence culminated in a maximal moment magnitude M-w 4.3 earthquake, on 2013 October 1. The most relevant seismogenic feature in the area is the Fosa de Amposta fault system, which includes different strands mapped at different distances to the coast, with a general NE-SW orientation, roughly parallel to the coastline. However, no significant known historical seismicity has involved this fault system in the past. The epicentral region is also located near the offshore platform of the Castor project, where gas is conducted through a pipeline from mainland and where it was recently injected in a depleted oil reservoir, at about 2 km depth. We analyse the temporal evolution of the seismic sequence and use full waveform techniques to derive absolute and relative locations, estimate depths and focal mechanisms for the largest events in the sequence (with magnitude mbLg larger than 3), and compare them to a previous event (2012 April 8, mbLg 3.3) taking place in the same region prior to the gas injection. Moment tensor inversion results show that the overall seismicity in this sequence is characterized by oblique mechanisms with a normal fault component, with a 30A degrees low-dip angle plane oriented NNE-SSW and a subvertical plane oriented NW-SE. The combined analysis of hypocentral location and focal mechanisms could indicate that the seismic sequence corresponds to rupture processes along shallow low-dip surfaces, which could have been triggered by the gas injection in the reservoir, and excludes the activation of the Amposta fault, as its known orientation is inconsistent with focal mechanism results. An alternative scenario includes the iterated triggering of a system of steep faults oriented NW-SE, which were identified by prior marine seismics investigations.
Two nuclear explosions were carried out by the Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea in January and September 2016. Epicenters were located close to those of the 2006, 2009, and 2013 previous explosions. We perform a seismological analysis of the 2016 events combining the analysis of full waveforms at regional distances and seismic array beams at teleseismic distances. We estimate the most relevant source parameters, such as source depth, moment release, and full moment tensor (MT). The best MT solution can be decomposed into an isotropic source, directly related with the explosion and an additional deviatoric term, likely due to near‐source interactions with topographic and/or underground facilities features. We additionally perform an accurate resolution test to assess source parameters uncertainties and trade‐offs. This analysis sheds light on source parameters inconsistencies among studies on previous shallow explosive sources. The resolution of the true MT is hindered by strong source parameters trade‐offs, so that a broad range of well‐fitting MT solutions can be found, spanning from a dominant positive isotropic term to a dominant negative vertical compensated linear vector dipole. The true mechanism can be discriminated by additionally modeling first‐motion polarities at seismic arrays at teleseismic distances. A comparative assessment of the 2016 explosion with earlier nuclear tests documents similar vertical waveforms but a significant increase of amplitude for the 2016 explosions, which proves that the 9 September 2016 was the largest nuclear explosion ever performed in North Korea with a magnitude Mw 4.9 and a shallow depth of less than 2 km, although there are no proofs of a fusion explosion. Modeling transversal component waveforms suggests variable size and orientation of the double‐couple components of the 2009, 2013, and 2016 sources.
On October 9, 2014, a Mw 7.1-6.7 seismic doublet occurred at the Juan Fernandez microplate, close to the triple junction with Pacific and Nazca plates. The Mw 7.1 earthquake is the largest earthquake ever to have been recorded in the region. Its thrust focal mechanism is also unusual for the region, although the northern part of the microplate is expected to undergo compression. The region is remote and seismological data is limited to a seismic station at similar to 600 km distance on Easter Island and teleseismic observations for the largest events. We use a combination of advanced seismological techniques to overcome the lack of local data and resolve earthquake source parameters for the doublet and its aftershock sequence, being able to reconstruct the chronology of the sequence and the geometry of affected fault segments. Our results depict a complex seismic sequence characterized by the interplay of thrust and strike-slip earthquakes along different structures, including a second, reversed strike slip-thrust seismic doublet in November 2014. Seismicity occurred within the microplate and only in the late part of the sequence migrated northward, towards the microplate boundary. The first largest doublet, whose rupture kinematic is well explained by stress changes imparted by the first subevent on the second one, may have activated unmapped E-W and NE-SW faults or an internal curved pseudofault, attributed to the longterm rotation of the microplate. Few large, thrust earthquakes are observed within the sequence, taking place in the vicinity of mapped compressional ridges. We suggest that compressional stresses in the northern part of the microplate and at its boundary are partially accommodated aseismically. However, the occasional occurrence of large, impulsive thrust earthquakes, with a considerable tsunamigenic potential, poses a relevant hazard for islands in the South Pacific region.
We suggest a new clustering approach to classify focal mechanisms from large moment tensor catalogues, with the purpose of automatically identify families of earthquakes with similar source geometry, recognize the orientation of most active faults, and detect temporal variations of the rupture processes. The approach differs in comparison to waveform similarity methods since clusters are detected even if they occur in large spatial distances. This approach is particularly helpful to analyse large moment tensor catalogues, as in microseismicity applications, where a manual analysis and classification is not feasible. A flexible algorithm is here proposed: it can handle different metrics, norms, and focal mechanism representations. In particular, the method can handle full moment tensor or constrained source model catalogues, for which different metrics are suggested. The method can account for variable uncertainties of different moment tensor components. We verify the method with synthetic catalogues. An application to real data from mining induced seismicity illustrates possible applications of the method and demonstrate the cluster detection and event classification performance with different moment tensor catalogues. Results proof that main earthquake source types occur on spatially separated faults, and that temporal changes in the number and characterization of focal mechanism clusters are detected. We suggest that moment tensor clustering can help assessing time dependent hazard in mines.
An earthquake swarm affected the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica, a unique rift basin in transition from intra-arc rifting to ocean spreading. The swarm, counting similar to 85,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes since August 2020, is located close to the Orca submarine volcano, previously considered inactive. Simultaneously, geodetic data reported up to similar to 11 cm north-westward displacement over King George Island. We use a broad variety of geophysical data and methods to reveal the complex migration of seismicity, accompanying the intrusion of 0.26-0.56 km(3) of magma. Strike-slip earthquakes mark the intrusion at depth, while shallower normal faulting the similar to 20 km long lateral growth of a dike. Seismicity abruptly decreased after a Mw 6.0 earthquake, suggesting the magmatic dike lost pressure with the slipping of a large fault. A seafloor eruption is likely, but not confirmed by sea surface temperature anomalies. The unrest documents episodic magmatic intrusion in the Bransfield Strait, providing unique insights into active continental rifting.
Various techniques are utilized by the seismological community, extractive industries, energy and geoengineering companies to identify earthquake nucleation processes in close proximity to engineering operation points. These operations may comprise fluid extraction or injections, artificial water reservoir impoundments, open pit and deep mining, deep geothermal power generations or carbon sequestration. In this letter to the editor, we outline several lines of investigation that we suggest to follow to address the discrimination problem between natural seismicity and seismic events induced or triggered by geoengineering activities. These suggestions have been developed by a group of experts during several meetings and workshops, and we feel that their publication as a summary report is helpful for the geoscientific community. Specific investigation procedures and discrimination approaches, on which our recommendations are based, are also published in this Special Issue (SI) of Journal of Seismology.