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Landslides are a hazard for humans and artificial structures. From an ecological point of view, they represent an important ecosystem disturbance, especially in tropical montane forests. Here, shallow translational landslides are a frequent natural phenomenon and one local determinant of high levels of biodiversity. In this paper, we apply weighted ensembles of advanced phenomenological models from statistics and machine learning to analyze the driving factors of natural landslides in a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador. We exclusively interpret terrain attributes, derived from a digital elevation model, as proxies to several driving factors of landslides and use them as predictors in our models which are trained on a set of five historical landslide inventories. We check the model generality by transferring them in time and use three common performance criteria (i.e. AUC, explained deviance and slope of model calibration curve) to, on the one hand, compare several state-of-the-art model approaches and on the other hand, to create weighted model ensembles. Our results suggest that it is important to consider more than one single performance criterion.
Approaching our main question, we compare responses of weighted model ensembles that were trained on distinct functional units of landslides (i.e. initiation, transport and deposition zones). This way, we are able to show that it is quite possible to deduce driving factors of landslides, if the consistency between the training data and the processes is maintained. Opening the 'black box' of statistical models by interpreting univariate model response curves and relative importance of single predictors regarding their plausibility, we provide a means to verify this consistency.
With the exception of classification tree analysis, all techniques performed comparably well in our case study while being outperformed by weighted model ensembles. Univariate response curves of models trained on distinct functional units of landslides exposed different shapes following our expectations. Our results indicate the occurrence of landslides to be mainly controlled by factors related to the general position along a slope (i.e. ridge, open slope or valley) while landslide initiation seems to be favored by small scale convexities on otherwise plain open slopes.
The Brazilian Cerrado is recognized as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural Cerrado vegetation to intense cash crop production. This paper reviews the history of land conversion in the Cerrado and the development of soil properties and water resources under past and ongoing land use. We compared soil and water quality parameters from different land uses considering 80 soil and 18 water studies conducted in different regions across the Cerrado to provide quantitative evidence of soil and water alterations from land use change.
Following the conversion of native Cerrado, significant effects on soil pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the sites classified as croplands were nitrogen-fixing soybeans, which are not artificially fertilized with N. In contrast, water quality studies showed nitrogen enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and European Union (EU) water quality limits, which were potentially accompanied by serious health implications. Land use intensification is likely to continue, particularly in regions where less annual rainfall and severe droughts are projected in the northeastern and western Cerrado. Thus, the leaching risk and displacement of agrochemicals are expected to increase, particularly because the current legislation has caused a reduction in riparian vegetation. We conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado's future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This study may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado. Copyright (C) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Professional knowledge is an important source of science teachers' actions in the classroom (e.g., personal professional content knowledge [pedagogical content knowledge, PCK] is the source of enacted PCK in the refined consensus model [RCM] for PCK). However, the evidence for this claim is ambiguous at best. This study applied a cross-lagged panel design to examine the relationship between professional knowledge and actions in one particular instructional situation: explaining physics. Pre- and post a field experience (one semester), 47 preservice physics teachers from four different universities were tested for their content knowledge (CK), PCK, pedagogical knowledge (PK), and action-related skills in explaining physics. The study showed that joint professional knowledge (the weighted sum of CK, PCK, and PK scores) at the beginning of the field experience impacted the development of explaining skills during the field experience (beta = .38**). We interpret this as a particular relationship between professional knowledge and science teachers' action-related skills (enacted PCK): professional knowledge is necessary for the development of explaining skills. That is evidence that personal PCK affects enacted PCK. In addition, field experiences are often supposed to bridge the theory-practice gap by transforming professional knowledge into instructional practice. Our results suggest that for field experiences to be effective, preservice teachers should start with profound professional knowledge.
Alles auf Anfang!
(2019)
Im Zuge der Bologna-Reform ist an Hochschulen vieles in Bewegung gekommen. Studium und Lehre sind stärker ins Blickfeld gerückt. Dabei kommt der Studieneingangsphase besondere Bedeutung zu, werden doch hier die Weichen für ein erfolgreiches Studium gestellt. Deshalb ist es verständlich, dass die Hauptanstrengungen der Hochschulen auf den Studieneingang gerichtet sind – ganz nach dem Motto: „Auf den Anfang kommt es an!“. Konsens herrscht dahingehend, dass der Studieneingang neu zu gestalten ist, doch beim „Wie?“ gibt es unterschiedliche Antworten. Zugleich wird immer deutlicher, dass eine wirksame Neugestaltung der Eingangsphase nur mit einer umfassenden Reform des Studiums gelingen kann.
Ziel des vierten Bandes der Potsdamer Beiträge zur Hochschulforschung ist es, eine Zwischenbilanz der Debatte zum Studieneingang zu ziehen. Auf der Basis empirischer Studien werden unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf den Studieneingang eingenommen und Empfehlungen zur Optimierung des Studieneingangs abgeleitet. Die zahlreichen Untersuchungsergebnisse Potsdamer Forschergruppen werden durch weitere nationale sowie internationale Perspektiven ergänzt. Der Band richtet sich an alle, die sich für die Entwicklung an Hochschulen interessieren.
Risk factors for, and prevalence of, sleep apnoea in cardiac rehabilitation facilities in Germany
(2015)
Aim To determine the prevalence of, and the risk factors for, sleep apnoea in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) facilities in Germany.
Methods 1152 patients presenting for CR were screened for sleep-disordered breathing with 2-channel polygraphy (ApneaLink; ResMed). Parameters recorded included the apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI), number of desaturations per hour of recording (ODI), mean and minimum nocturnal oxygen saturation and number of snoring episodes. Patients rated subjective sleep quality on a scale from 1 (poor) to 10 (best) and completed the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS).
Results Clinically significant sleep apnoea (AHI 15/h) was documented in 33% of patients. Mean AHI was 1416/h (range 0-106/h). Sleep apnoea was defined as being of moderate severity in 18% of patients (AHI 15-29/h) and severe in 15% (AHI 30/h). There were small, but statistically significant, differences in ESS score and subjective sleep quality between patients with and without sleep apnoea. Logistic regression model analysis identified the following as risk factors for sleep apnoea in CR patients: age (per 10 years) (odds ratio (OR) 1.51; p<0.001), body mass index (per 5 units) (OR 1.31; p=0.001), male gender (OR 2.19; p<0.001), type 2 diabetes mellitus (OR 1.45; p=0.040), haemoglobin level (OR 0.91; p=0.012) and witnessed apnoeas (OR 1.99; p<0.001).
Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that more than one-third of patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation in Germany have sleep apnoea, with one-third having moderate-to-severe SDB that requires further evaluation or intervention. Inclusion of sleep apnoea screening as part of cardiac rehabilitation appears to be appropriate.
Im Lehramtsstudium sollen Studierende grundlegende Fähigkeiten zur theoriegeleiteten Unterrichtsplanung erwerben.
In Übereinstimmung mit Modellen zur professionellen Handlungskompetenz von Lehrkräften wird hierbei meist angenommen, dass das im Studienverlauf erworbene Professionswissen eine wesentliche Grundlage für den Aufbau von Fähigkeiten zur Unterrichtsplanung bildet.
Lerngelegenheiten zur Anwendung dieses Professionswissens bieten vor allem schulpraktische Phasen im fortgeschrittenen Studienverlauf. Es wird aber ebenso angenommen, dass gerade Erfahrungen mit der Unterrichtsplanung den Aufbau von Professionswissen unterstützen.
Der Zusammenhang zwischen dem Ausmaß des Professionswissens und der Entwicklung von Planungsfähigkeit ist bisher unzureichend empirisch geklärt. Eine besondere methodische Herausforderung besteht darin, Planungsfähigkeiten sowohl möglichst authentisch als auch auf standardisierte Weise zu erfassen. Zur Untersuchung des genannten Zusammenhangs wurde eine längsschnittliche Studie im Prä-Post-Design bei angehenden Physiklehrkräften (N = 68 im Längsschnitt) an vier Universitäten durchgeführt.
Die Unterrichtsplanungsfähigkeit wurde mit Hilfe eines standardisierten Performanztests vor und nach dem Absolvieren eines Praxissemesters erfasst, indem als Standardsituation der Entwurf einer Unterrichtsstunde zum 3. Newton’schen Axiom unter definierten Zeitvorgaben im Praxissemester simuliert wurde. Zusätzlich wurden das fachliche, fachdidaktische und pädagogische Wissen der Studierenden mit Hilfe standardisierter Instrumente zu beiden Zeitpunkten erhoben, sowie die einschlägigen Lerngelegenheiten im Praxissemester über einen Fragebogen erfasst.
Sowohl für Unterrichtsplanungsfähigkeit als auch für alle Wissensvariablen können Zuwächse im Praxissemester beobachtet werden. Cross-Lagged-Panel-Analysen zeigen, dass insbesondere die Ausprägung des fachdidaktischen und pädagogischen Wissens der Studierenden am Beginn des Praxissemesters die Entwicklung von Unterrichtsplanungsfähigkeit begünstigt.
Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of ‘movement ecology’. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide ‘mobile links’ between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through ‘equalizing’ and ‘stabilizing’ mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels.