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Portal Wissen = Exzellenz
(2023)
Was nicht nur gut oder sehr gut ist, nennen wir gern exzellent. Aber was meint das eigentlich? Vom lateinischen „excellere“ kommend, beschreibt es Dinge, Personen oder Handlungen, die „hervor-“ oder „herausragen“ aus der Menge, sich „auszeichnen“ gegenüber anderen. Mehr geht nicht. Exzellenz ist das Mittel der Wahl, wenn es darum geht, der Erste oder Beste zu sein. Und das macht auch vor der Forschung nicht halt. Wer auf die Universität Potsdam schaut, findet zahlreiche ausgezeichnete Forschende, hervorragende Projekte und immer wieder auch aufsehenerregende Erkenntnisse, Veröffentlichungen und Ergebnisse.
Aber ist die UP auch exzellent? Eine Frage, die 2023 ganz sicher andere Wellen schlägt als vielleicht vor 20 Jahren. Denn seit dem Start der Exzellenzinitiative 2005 gelten als – wörtlich – exzellent jene Hochschulen, denen es gelingt, in dem umfangreichsten Förderprogramm für Wissenschaft in Deutschland einen Zuschlag zu erhalten. Egal ob in Form von Graduiertenschulen, Forschungsclustern oder – seit Fortsetzung des Programms ab 2019 unter dem Titel „Exzellenzstrategie“ – ganzen Exzellenzuniversitäten: Wer im Kreis der Forschungsuniversitäten zu den Besten gehören will, braucht das Siegel der Exzellenz. In der gerade eingeläuteten neuen Wettbewerbsrunde der „Exzellenzstrategie des Bundes und der Länder“ bewirbt sich die Universität Potsdam mit drei Clusterskizzen um Förderung.
Ein Antrag kommt aus der Ökologie- und Biodiversitätsforschung. Ziel ist es, ein komplexes Bild ökologischer Prozesse zu zeichnen – und dabei die Rolle von einzelnen Individuen ebenso zu betrachten wie das Zusammenwirken vieler Arten in einem Ökosystem, um die Funktion der Artenvielfalt genauer zu bestimmen. Eine zweite Skizze haben die Kognitionswissenschaften eingereicht. Hier soll das komplexe Nebeneinander von Sprache und Kognition, Entwicklung und Lernen sowie Motivation und Verhalten als dynamisches Miteinander erforscht werden – wobei auch mit den Erziehungswissenschaften kooperiert wird, um verknüpfte Lernund Bildungsprozesse stets mitzudenken. Der dritte Antrag aus den Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften nimmt extreme und besonders folgenschwere Naturgefahren und -prozesse wie Überschwemmungen und Dürren in den Blick. Die Forschenden untersuchen die Extremereignisse mit besonderem Fokus auf deren Wechselwirkung mit der Gesellschaft, um mit ihnen einhergehende Risiken und Schäden besser einschätzen sowie künftig rechtzeitig Maßnahmen einleiten zu können.
„Alle drei Anträge zeichnen ein hervorragendes Bild unserer Leistungsfähigkeit“, betont der Präsident der Universität, Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph.D. „Die Skizzen dokumentieren eindrucksvoll unser Engagement, vorhandene Forschungsexzellenz sowie die Potenziale der Universität Potsdam insgesamt. Allein die Tatsache, dass sich drei schlagkräftige Konsortien in ganz unterschiedlichen Themenbereichen zusammengefunden haben, zeigt, dass wir auf unserem Weg in die Spitzengruppe der deutschen Universitäten einen guten Schritt vorangekommen sind.“
In diesem Heft schauen wir, was sich in und hinter diesen Anträgen verbirgt: Wir haben mit den Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftlern gesprochen, die sie geschrieben haben, und sie gefragt, was sie sich vornehmen, sollten sie den Zuschlag erhalten und ein Cluster an die Universität holen. Wir haben aber auch auf die Forschung geschaut, die zu den Anträgen geführt hat und die schon länger das Profil der Universität prägt und ihr national wie international Anerkennung eingebracht hat. Wir stellen eine kleine Auswahl an Projekten, Methoden und Forschenden vor, um zu zeigen, warum in diesen Anträgen tatsächlich exzellente Forschung steckt! Übrigens: Auch „Exzellenz“ ist nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange. Immerhin lässt sich das Adjektiv exzellent sogar steigern. In diesem Sinne wünschen wir exzellentestes Vergnügen beim Lesen!
Portal Wissen = Excellence
(2023)
When something is not just good or very good, we often call it excellent. But what does that really mean? Coming from the Latin word “excellere,” it describes things, persons, or actions that are outstanding or superior and distinguish themselves from others. It cannot get any better. Excellence is the top choice for being the first or the best. Research is no exception.
At the university, you will find numerous exceptional researchers, outstanding projects, and, time and again, sensational findings, publications, and results. But is the University of Potsdam also excellent? A question that will certainly create a different stir in 2023 than it did perhaps 20 years ago. Since the launch of the Excellence Initiative in 2005, universities that succeed in winning the most comprehensive funding program for research in Germany have been considered – literally – excellent. Whether in the form of graduate schools, research clusters, or – since the program was continued in 2019 under the title “Excellence Strategy” – entire universities of excellence: Anyone who wants to be among the best research universities needs the seal of excellence.
The University of Potsdam is applying for funding with three cluster proposals in the recently launched new round of the “Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments.” One proposal comes from ecology and biodiversity research. The aim is to paint a comprehensive picture of ecological processes by examining the role of single individuals as well as the interactions among many species in an ecosystem to precisely determine the function of biodiversity. A second proposal has been submitted by the cognitive sciences. Here, the complex coexistence of language and cognition, development and learning, as well as motivation and behavior will be researched as a dynamic interrelation. The projects will include cooperation with the educational sciences to constantly consider linked learning and educational processes. The third proposal from the geo and environmental sciences concentrates on extreme and particularly devastating natural hazards and processes such as floods and droughts. The researchers examine these extreme events, focusing on their interaction with society, to be able to better assess the risks and damages they might involve and to initiate timely measures in the future.
“All three proposals highlight the excellence of our performance,” emphasizes University President Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph.D. “The outlines impressively document our commitment, existing research excellence, and the potential of the University of Potsdam as a whole. The fact that three powerful consortia have come together in different subject areas shows that we have taken a good step forward on our way to becoming one of the top German universities.”
In this issue, we are looking at what is in and behind these proposals: We talked to the researchers who wrote them. We asked them about their plans in case their proposals are successful and they bring a cluster of excellence to the university. But we also looked at the research that has led to the proposals, has long shaped the university’s profile, and earned it national and international recognition. We present a small selection of projects, methods, and researchers to illustrate why there really is excellent research in these proposals!
By the way, “excellence” is also not the end of the flagpole. After all, the adjective “excellent” even has a comparative and a superlative. With this in mind, I wish you the most excellent pleasure reading this issue!
The Tibetan Plateau, the world's largest orogenic plateau, hosts thousands of lakes that play prominent roles as water resources, environmental archives, and sources of natural hazards such as glacier lake outburst floods. Previous studies have reported that the size of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau has changed rapidly in recent years, possibly because of atmospheric warming. Tracking these changes systematically with remote sensing data is challenging given the different spectral signatures of water, the potential for confusing lakes with glaciers, and difficulties in classifying frozen or partly frozen lakes. Object-based image analysis (OBIA) offers new opportunities for automated classification in this context, and we have explored this method for mapping lakes from LANDSAT images and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data. We tested our algorithm for most of the Tibetan Plateau, where lakes in tectonic depressions or blocked by glaciers and sediments have different surface colours and seasonal ice cover in images obtained in 1995 and 2015. We combined a modified normalised difference water index (MNDWI) with OBIA and local topographic slope data in order to classify lakes with an area > 10 km(2). Our method derived 323 water bodies, with a total area of 31,258 km(2), or 2.6% of the study area (in 2015). The same number of lakes had covered only 24,892 km(2) in 1995; lake area has increased by -26% in the past two decades. The classification had estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.98, with a Cohen's kappa and F-score of 0.98, and may thus be a useful approximation for quantifying regional hydrological budgets. We have shown that our method is flexible and transferable to detecting lakes in diverse physical settings on several continents with similar success rates.
Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5% and 14% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71-0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Increased landslide activity on forested hillslopes following two recent volcanic eruptions in Chile
(2019)
Large explosive eruptions can bury landscapes beneath thick layers of tephra. Rivers subsequently overloaded with excess pyroclastic sediments have some of the highest reported specific sediment yields. Much less is known about how hillslopes respond to tephra loads. Here, we report a pulsed and distinctly delayed increase in landslide activity following the eruptions of the Chaiten (2008) and Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) volcanoes in southern Chile. Remote-sensing data reveal that land-slides clustered in densely forested hillslopes mostly two to six years after being covered by tephra. This lagged instability is consistent with a gradual loss of shear strength of decaying tree roots in areas of high tephra loads. Surrounding areas with comparable topography, forest cover, rainfall and lithology maintained landslide rates roughly ten times lower. The landslides eroded the landscape by up to 4.8 mm on average within 30 km of both volcanoes, mobilizing up to 1.6 MtC at rates of about 265 tC km(-2) yr(-1). We suggest that these yields may reinforce the elevated river loads of sediment and organic carbon in the decade after the eruptions. We recommend that studies of post-eruptive mass fluxes and hazards include lagged landslide responses of tephra-covered forested hillslopes, to avoid substantial underestimates.
Mountain rivers respond to strong earthquakes by rapidly aggrading to accommodate excess sediment delivered by co-seismic landslides. Detailed sediment budgets indicate that rivers need several years to decades to recover from seismic disturbances, depending on how recovery is defined. We examine three principal proxies of river recovery after earthquake-induced sediment pulses around Pokhara, Nepal's second largest city. Freshly exhumed cohorts of floodplain trees in growth position indicate rapid and pulsed sedimentation that formed a fan covering 150 km2 in a Lesser Himalayan basin with tens of metres of debris between the 11th and 15th centuries AD. Radiocarbon dates of buried trees are consistent with those of nearby valley deposits linked to major medieval earthquakes, such that we can estimate average rates of re-incision since. We combine high-resolution digital elevation data, geodetic field surveys, aerial photos, and dated tree trunks to reconstruct geomorphic marker surfaces. The volumes of sediment relative to these surfaces require average net sediment yields of up to 4200 t km–2 yr–1 for the 650 years since the last inferred earthquake-triggered sediment pulse. The lithological composition of channel bedload differs from that of local bedrock, confirming that rivers are still mostly evacuating medieval valley fills, locally incising at rates of up to 0.2 m yr–1. Pronounced knickpoints and epigenetic gorges at tributary junctions further illustrate the protracted fluvial response; only the distal portions of the earthquake-derived sediment wedges have been cut to near their base. Our results challenge the notion that mountain rivers recover speedily from earthquakes within years to decades. The valley fills around Pokhara show that even highly erosive Himalayan rivers may need more than several centuries to adjust to catastrophic perturbations. Our results motivate some rethinking of post-seismic hazard appraisals and infrastructural planning in active mountain regions.
Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Quaternary glaciations have repeatedly shaped large tracts of the Andean foreland. Its spectacular large glacial lakes, staircases of moraine ridges, and extensive outwash plains have inspired generations of scientists to reconstruct the processes, magnitude, and timing of ice build-up and decay at the mountain front. Surprisingly few of these studies noticed many dozens of giant (≥108 m3) mass-wasting deposits in the foreland. We report some of the world's largest terrestrial landslides in the eastern piedmont of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) along the traces of the former Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Puyerredón glacier lobes and lakes. More than 283 large rotational slides and lateral spreads followed by debris slides, earthflows, rotational and translational rockslides, complex slides and few large rock avalanches detached some 164 ± 56 km3 of material from the slopes of volcanic mesetas, lake-bounding moraines, and river-gorge walls. Many of these landslide deposits intersect with well-dated moraine ridges or former glacial-lake shorelines, and offer opportunities for relative dating of slope failure. We estimate that >60% of the landslide volume (∼96 km3) detached after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Giant slope failures cross-cutting shorelines of a large Late Glacial to Early Holocene lake (“glacial lake PIS”) likely occurred during successive lake-level drop between ∼11.5 and 8 ka, and some of them are the largest hitherto documented landslides in moraines. We conclude that 1) large portions of terminal moraines can fail catastrophically several thousand years after emplacement; 2) slopes formed by weak bedrock or unconsolidated glacial deposits bordering glacial lakes can release extremely large landslides; and 3) landslides still occur in the piedmont, particularly along postglacial gorges cut in response to falling lake levels.
Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Flash floods and debris flows are iconic hazards inmountainous regions with steep relief, high rainfall intensities, rapid snowmelt events, and abundant sediments. The cuesta landscapes of southern Germany hardly come to mind when dealing with such hazards. A series of heavy rainstorms dumping up to 140mm in 2 h caused destructive flash floods and debris flows in May 2016. The most severe damage occurred in the Braunsbach municipality, which was partly buried by 42,000 m(3) of boulders, gravel, mud, and anthropogenic debris from the small catchment of Orlacher Bach (similar to 6 km(2)). We analysed this event by combining rainfall patterns, geological conditions, and geomorphic impacts to estimate an average sediment yield of 14,000 t/km(2) that mostly (similar to 95%) came from some 50 riparian landslides and channel-bed incision of similar to 2 m. This specific sediment yield ranks among the top 20% globally, while the intensity-duration curve of the rainstormis similarly in the upper percentile range of storms that had triggered landslides. Compared to similar-sized catchments in the greater region hit by the rainstorms, we find that the Orlacher Bach is above the 95th percentile in terms of steepness, storm-rainfall intensity, and topographic curvatures. The flash flood transported a sediment volume equal to as much as 20-40% of the Pleistocene sediment volume stored in the Orlacher Bach fan, andmay have had several predecessors in the Holocene. River control structures from 1903 and records of a debris flow in the 1920s in a nearby catchment indicate that the local inhabitants may have been aware of the debris-flow hazards earlier. Such recurring and destructive events elude flood-hazard appraisals in humid landscapes of gentle relief, and broaden mechanistic views of how landslides and debris flows contribute to shaping small and deeply cut tributaries in the southern Germany cuesta landscape.
Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades.
"In spite of ever-increasing research into natural hazards, the reported damage from natural disasters continues to rise, increasingly disrupting human activities. We, as scientists who study the way in which the part of Earth most relevant to society- the surface-behaves, are disturbed and frustrated by this trend. It appears that the large amounts of funding devoted each year to research into reducing the impacts of natural disasters could be much more effective in producing useful results. At the same time we are aware that society, as represented by its decision makers, while increasingly concerned at the impacts of natural disasters on lives and economies, is reluctant to acknowledge the intrinsic activity of Earth's surface and to take steps to adapt societal behaviour to minimise the impacts of natural disasters. Understanding and managing natural hazards and disasters are beyond matters of applied earth science, and also involve considering human societal, economic and political decisions"
Fjords and old-growth forests store large amounts of organic carbon. Yet the role of episodic disturbances, particularly volcanic eruptions, in mobilizing organic carbon in fjord landscapes covered by temperate rainforests remains poorly quantified. To this end, we estimated how much wood and soils were flushed to nearby fjords following the 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in south-central Chile, where pyroclastic sediments covered >12km(2) of pristine temperate rainforest. Field-based surveys of forest biomass, soil organic content, and dead wood transport reveal that the reworking of pyroclastic sediments delivered similar to 66,500+14,600/-14,500tC of large wood to two rivers entering the nearby Patagonian fjords in less than a decade. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits (similar to 79,900+21,100/-16,900tC) or stored in active river channels (5,900-10,600tC). We estimate that bank erosion mobilized similar to 132,300(+21,700)/(-30,600)tC of floodplain forest soil. Eroded and reworked forest soils have been accreting on coastal river deltas at >5mmyr(-1) since the eruption. While much of the large wood is transported out of the fjord by long-shore drift, the finer fraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords. We conclude that the organic carbon fluxes boosted by rivers adjusting to high pyroclastic sediment loads may remain elevated for up to a decade and that Patagonian temperate rainforests disturbed by excessive loads of pyroclastic debris can be episodic short-lived carbon sources. Plain Language Summary Fjords and old-growth forests are important sinks of organic carbon. However, the role of volcanic eruptions in flushing organic carbon in fjord landscapes remains unexplored. Here we estimated how much forest vegetation and soils were lost to fjords following the 2008 eruption ofunknownChaiten volcano in south-central Chile. Pyroclastic sediments obliterated near-pristine temperateunknownrainforest, and the subsequent reworking of these sediments delivered in less than a decade similar to 66,000 tC of large wood to the mountain rivers, draining into the nearby Patagonian fjords. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits or stored in active riverunknownchannels. We estimate that similar to 130,000 tC of organic carbon-rich soil was lost to erosion, thus adding to the carbon loads. While much of the wood enters the long-shore drift in the fjord heads, the finerunknownfraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords at rates that exceed regional estimates by an order of magnitude. We anticipate that these eruption-driven fluxes will remain elevated forunknownthe coming years and that Patagonian temperate rainforests episodically switch from carbon sinks to hitherto undocumented carbon sources if disturbed by explosive volcanic eruptions.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of >0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by >80% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
Rock glaciers are permafrost or glacial landforms of debris and ice that deform under the influence of gravity. Recent estimates hold that, in the semiarid Chilean Andes for example, active rock glaciers store more water than glaciers. However, little is known about how many rock glaciers might decay because of global warming and how much this decay might contribute to water and sediment release. We investigated an inventory of >6500 rock glaciers in the Argentinian Andes, spanning the climatic gradient from the Desert Andes to cold-temperate Tierra del Fuego. We used active rock glaciers as a diagnostic of permafrost, assuming that the toes mark the 0 degrees C isotherm in climate scenarios for the twenty-first century and their impact on freezing conditions near the rock glacier toes. We find that, under future worst case warming, up to 95% of rock glaciers in the southern Desert Andes and in the Central Andes will rest in areas above 0 degrees C and that this freezing level might move up more than twice as much (similar to 500 m) as during the entire Holocene (similar to 200 m). Many active rock glaciers are already well below the current freezing level and exemplify how local controls may confound regional prognoses. A Bayesian Multifactor Analysis of Variance further shows that only in the Central Andes are the toes of active rock glaciers credibly higher than those of inactive ones. Elsewhere in the Andes, active and inactive rock glaciers occupy indistinguishable elevation bands, regardless of aspect, the formation mechanism, or shape of rock glaciers. The state of rock glacier activity predicts differences in elevations of toes to 140 m at best so that regional inference of the distribution of discontinuous permafrost from rock-glacier toes cannot be more accurate than this in the Argentinian Andes. We conclude that the Central Andes-where rock glaciers are largest, cover the most area, and have a greater density than glaciers-is likely to experience the most widespread disturbance to the thermal regime of the twenty-first century. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Reconstructing how rivers respond to changes in runoff or sediment supply by incising or aggrading has been pivotal in gauging the role of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as a geomorphic driver in the Himalayas. Here we present new chronological data for fluvial aggradation and incision from the Donga alluvial fan and the upper Alaknanda River, as well as a compilation of previous work. In addition to conventional OSL-SAR (Single-Aliquot Regenerative-Dose) dating method, we have tested and applied pulsed OSL (POSL) dating for quartz samples that include K-rich feldspar inclusions, which is expected to improve the applicability and validity of OSL ages in the Lesser Himalaya. For previously dated deposits, our OSL ages are shown to be systematically older than previously reported ages. These results suggest periods of aggradation in the Alaknanda and Dehradun Valleys mainly between similar to 25 and 35 ka. This most likely reflects decreased stream power during periods of weakened monsoon. In addition, in-situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 was used to infer bedrock surface exposure ages, which are interpreted as episodes of active fluvial erosion. Resulting exposure ages span from 3 to 6 ka, suggesting that strath terraces were exposed relatively recently, and incision was dominant through most of the Holocene. In combination, our results support precipitation-driven fluvial dynamics, which regulates the balance between stream power and sediment supply. On a larger spatial scale, however, fluvial dynamics are probably not spatially homogeneous as aggradation could have been taking place in adjacent catchments while incision dominated in the study area. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Plain Language Summary The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal caused severe losses in the hydropower sector. The country temporarily lost similar to 20% of its hydropower capacity, and >30 hydropower projects were damaged. The projects hit hardest were those that were affected by earthquake-triggered landslides. We show that these projects are located along very steep rivers with towering sidewalls that are prone to become unstable during strong seismic ground shaking. A statistical classification based on a topographic metric that expresses river steepness and earthquake ground acceleration is able to approximately predict hydropower damage during future earthquakes, based on successful testing of past cases. Thus, our model enables us to estimate earthquake damages to hydropower projects in other parts of the Himalayas. We find that >10% of the Himalayan drainage network may be unsuitable for hydropower infrastructure given high probabilities of high earthquake damages.
Pokhara (ca. 850 m a.s.l.), Nepal's second-largest city, lies at the foot of the Higher Himalayas and has more than tripled its population in the past 3 decades. Construction materials are in high demand in rapidly expanding built-up areas, and several informal settlements cater to unregulated sand and gravel mining in the Pokhara Valley's main river, the Seti Khola. This river is fed by the Sabche glacier below Annapurna III (7555 m a.s.l.), some 35 km upstream of the city, and traverses one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Himalayas. In May 2012 a sudden flood caused >70 fatalities and intense damage along this river and rekindled concerns about flood risk management. We estimate the flow dynamics and inundation depths of flood scenarios using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System). We simulate the potential impacts of peak discharges from 1000 to 10 000 m3 s−1 on land cover based on high-resolution Maxar satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap data (buildings and road network). We also trace the dynamics of two informal settlements near Kaseri and Yamdi with high potential flood impact from RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google Earth imagery of the past 2 decades. Our hydrodynamic simulations highlight several sites of potential hydraulic ponding that would largely affect these informal settlements and sites of sand and gravel mining. These built-up areas grew between 3- and 20-fold, thus likely raising local flood exposure well beyond changes in flood hazard. Besides these drastic local changes, about 1 % of Pokhara's built-up urban area and essential rural road network is in the highest-hazard zones highlighted by our flood simulations. Our results stress the need to adapt early-warning strategies for locally differing hydrological and geomorphic conditions in this rapidly growing urban watershed.
Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.
Pokhara (ca. 850 m a.s.l.), Nepal's second-largest city, lies at the foot of the Higher Himalayas and has more than tripled its population in the past 3 decades. Construction materials are in high demand in rapidly expanding built-up areas, and several informal settlements cater to unregulated sand and gravel mining in the Pokhara Valley's main river, the Seti Khola. This river is fed by the Sabche glacier below Annapurna III (7555 m a.s.l.), some 35 km upstream of the city, and traverses one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Himalayas. In May 2012 a sudden flood caused >70 fatalities and intense damage along this river and rekindled concerns about flood risk management. We estimate the flow dynamics and inundation depths of flood scenarios using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System). We simulate the potential impacts of peak discharges from 1000 to 10 000 m3 s−1 on land cover based on high-resolution Maxar satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap data (buildings and road network). We also trace the dynamics of two informal settlements near Kaseri and Yamdi with high potential flood impact from RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google Earth imagery of the past 2 decades. Our hydrodynamic simulations highlight several sites of potential hydraulic ponding that would largely affect these informal settlements and sites of sand and gravel mining. These built-up areas grew between 3- and 20-fold, thus likely raising local flood exposure well beyond changes in flood hazard. Besides these drastic local changes, about 1 % of Pokhara's built-up urban area and essential rural road network is in the highest-hazard zones highlighted by our flood simulations. Our results stress the need to adapt early-warning strategies for locally differing hydrological and geomorphic conditions in this rapidly growing urban watershed.
Dense tree stands and high wind speeds characterize the temperate rainforests of southern Chilean Patagonia, where landslides frequently strip hillslopes of soils, rock, and biomass. Assuming that wind loads on trees promote slope instability, we explore the role of forest cover and wind speed in predicting landslides with a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression. We find that higher crown openness and wind speeds credibly predict higher probabilities of detecting landslides regardless of topographic location, though much better in low-order channels and on midslope locations than on open slopes. Wind speed has less predictive power in areas that were impacted by tephra fall from recent volcanic eruptions, while the influence of forest cover in terms of crown openness remains. <br /> Plain Language Summary Chilean Patagonia hosts some of Earth's largest swaths of temperate rainforests, where frequent landslides erode soil, rock, and vegetation. We explore the role of forest cover and wind disturbances in promoting such landslides with a model that predicts from crown openness and wind speed the probability of detecting landslide terrain. We find that both forest cover and wind speed play important, yet previously underappreciated, roles in this context, especially when grouped by landform types and previous volcanic disturbance, which may override the comparable modest control of wind on landslides. Our study is the first of its kind in one of the windiest spots on Earth and encourages a more discerning approach to landslide prediction.
Many of the volcanic plateau margins of the eastern, formerly glaciated, foreland of the Patagonian Andes are undermined by giant landslides (>= 10(8) m(3)). One cluster of such landslides extends along the margin of the Meseta del Lago Buenos Aires (MLBA) plateau that is formed mainly by Neogene-Quaternary basalts. The dry climate is at odds with numerous >2-km long earthflows nested within older and larger compound landslides. We present a hydrological analysis, a detailed geomorphic map, interpretations of exposed landslide interiors, and radiocarbon dating of the El Mirador landslide, which is one of the largest and morphologically most representative landslide. We find that the presence of lakes on top of the plateau, causing low infiltration rates, correlates negatively with the abundance of earthflows on compound landslides along the plateau margins. Field outcrops show that the pattern of compound landslides and earthflows is likely controlled by groundwater seepage at the contact between the basalts and underlying soft Miocene molasse. Numerous peat bogs store water and sediment and are more abundant in earthflow-affected areas than in their contributing catchment areas. <br /> Radiocarbon dates indicate that these earthflows displaced metre-thick layers of peat in the late Holocene (<2.5 ka). We conclude that earthflows of the MLBA plateau might be promising proxies of past hydroclimatic conditions in the Patagonian foreland, if strong earthquakes or gradual crustal stress changes due to glacioisostatic rebound can be ruled out.
Moderate to large earthquakes can increase the amount of water feeding stream flows, mobilizing excess water from deep groundwater, shallow groundwater, or the vadose zone. Here we examine the regional pattern of streamflow response to the Maule M8.8 earthquake across Chile's diverse topographic and hydro-climatic gradients. We combine streamflow analyses with groundwater flow modeling and a random forest classifier, and find that, after the earthquake, at least 85 streams had a change in flow. Discharge mostly increased () shortly after the earthquake, liberating an excess water volume of >1.1 km3, which is the largest ever reported following an earthquake. Several catchments had increased discharge of >50 mm, locally exceeding seasonal streamflow discharge under undisturbed conditions. Our modeling results favor enhanced vertical permeability induced by dynamic strain as the most probable process explaining the observed changes at the regional scale. Supporting this interpretation, our random forest classification identifies peak ground velocity and elevation extremes as most important for predicting streamflow response. Given the mean recurrence interval of ∼25 yr for >M8.0 earthquakes along the Peru–Chile Trench, our observations highlight the role of earthquakes in the regional water cycle, especially in arid environments.
Earthquake-triggered landslide dams are potentially dangerous disrupters of water and sediment flux in mountain rivers, and capable of releasing catastrophic outburst flows to downstream areas. We analyze an inventory of 828 landslide dams in the Longmen Shan mountains, China, triggered by the M-w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This database is unique in that it is the largest of its kind attributable to a single regional-scale triggering event: 501 of the spatially clustered landslides fully blocked rivers, while the remainder only partially obstructed or diverted channels in steep watersheds of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan Fault Zone. The size distributions of the earthquake-triggered landslides, landslide dams, and associated lakes (a) can be modeled by an inverse gamma distribution; (b) show that moderate-size slope failures caused the majority of blockages; and (c) allow a detailed assessment of seismically induced river-blockage effects on regional water and sediment storage. Monte Carlo simulations based on volumetric scaling relationships for soil and bedrock failures respectively indicate that 14% (18%) of the estimated total coseismic landslide volume of 6.4 (14.6) x 10(9) m(3) was contained in landslide dams, representing only 1.4% of the >60,000 slope failures attributed to the earthquake. These dams have created storage capacity of similar to 0.6x 10(9) m(3) for incoming water and sediment. About 25% of the dams containing 2% of the total river-blocking debris volume failed one week after the earthquake; these figures had risen to 60% (similar to 20%), and >90% (>90%) within one month, and one:year, respectively, thus also emptying similar to 92% of the total potential water and sediment storage behind these, dams within one year following the earthquake. Currently only similar to 0.08 x 10(9) m(3) remain available as natural reservoirs for storing water and sediment, while similar to 0.19 x 10(9) m(3), i.e. about a third of the total river-blocking debris volume, has been eroded by rivers. Dam volume and upstream catchment area control to first order the longevity of the barriers, and bivariate domain plots are consistent with the observation that most earthquake-triggered landslide dams were ephemeral. We conclude that the river-blocking portion of coseismic slope failures disproportionately modulates the post-seismic sediment flux in the Longmen Shan on annual to decadal timescales.
Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are similar to 10(4) t km(-2) yr(-1) if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 10(2)-10(3) yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of similar to 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage for fuelling rather than buffering high sediment transport rates.
Supra-glacial deposition and flux of catastrophic rock-slope failure debris, south-central Alaska
(2013)
The ongoing debate over the effects of global environmental change on Earth's cryosphere calls for detailed knowledge about process rates and their variability in cold environments. In this context, appraisals of the coupling between glacier dynamics and para-glacial erosion rates in tectonically active mountains remain rare. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap and present an unprecedented regional-scale inventory of supra-glacial sediment flux and hillslope erosion rates inferred from an analysis of 123 large (> 0 center dot 1km2) catastrophic bedrock landslides that fell onto glaciers in the Chugach Mountains, Alaska, as documented by satellite images obtained between 1972 to 2008. Assuming these supra-glacial landslide deposits to be passive strain markers we infer minimum decadal-scale sediment yields of 190 to 7400tkm-2yr-1 for a given glacier-surface cross-section impacted by episodic rock-slope failure. These rates compare to reported fluvial sediment yields in many mountain rivers, but are an order of magnitude below the extreme sediment yields measured at the snouts of Alaskan glaciers, indicating that the bulk of debris discharged derives from en-glacial, sub-glacial or ice-proximal sources. We estimate an average minimum para-glacial erosion rate by large, episodic rock-slope failures at 0 center dot 5-0 center dot 7mmyr-1 in the Chugach Mountains over a 50-yr period, with earthquakes likely being responsible for up to 73% of this rate. Though ranking amongst the highest decadal landslide erosion rates for this size of study area worldwide, our inferred rates of hillslope erosion in the Chugach Mountains remain an order of magnitude below the pace of extremely rapid glacial sediment export and glacio-isostatic surface uplift previously reported from the region.
The 12 January 2010 M-w 7.0 Haiti earthquake occurred in a complex deformation zone at the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. Combined geodetic, geological and seismological data posited that surface deformation was driven by rupture on the Leogane blind thrust fault, while part of the rupture occurred as deep lateral slip on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault (EPGF). The earthquake triggered >4490 landslides, mainly shallow, disrupted rock falls, debris-soil falls and slides, and a few lateral spreads, over an area of similar to 2150 km(2). The regional distribution of these slope failures defies those of most similar earthquake-triggered landslide episodes reported previously. Most of the coseismic landslides did not proliferate in the hanging wall of the main rupture, but clustered instead at the junction of the blind Leogane and EPGF ruptures, where topographic relief and hillslope steepness are above average. Also, low-relief areas subjected to high coseismic uplift were prone to lesser hanging wall slope instability than previous studies would suggest. We argue that a combined effect of complex rupture dynamics and topography primarily control this previously rarely documented landslide pattern. Compared to recent thrust fault-earthquakes of similar magnitudes elsewhere, we conclude that lower static stress drop, mean fault displacement, and blind ruptures of the 2010 Haiti earthquake resulted in fewer, smaller, and more symmetrically distributed landslides than previous studies would suggest. Our findings caution against overly relying on across-the-board models of slope stability response to seismic ground shaking. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Any understanding of sediment routing from mountain belts to their forelands and offshore sinks remains incomplete without estimates of intermediate storage that decisively buffers sediment yields from erosion rates, attenuates water and sediment fluxes, and protects underlying bedrock from incision. We quantify for the first time the sediment stored in > 38000 mainly postglacial Himalayan valley fills, based on an empirical volume-area scaling of valley-fill outlines automatically extracted from digital topographic data. The estimated total volume of 690(+452/-242) km(3) is mostly contained in few large valley fills > 1 km(3), while catastrophic mass wasting adds another 177(31) km(3). Sediment storage volumes are highly disparate along the strike of the orogen. Much of the Himalaya's stock of sediment is sequestered in glacially scoured valleys that provide accommodation space for similar to 44% of the total volume upstream of the rapidly exhuming and incising syntaxes. Conversely, the step-like long-wave topography of the central Himalayas limits glacier extent, and thus any significant glacier-derived storage of sediment away from tectonic basins. We show that exclusive removal of Himalayan valley fills could nourish contemporary sediment flux from the Indus and Brahmaputra basins for > 1 kyr, though individual fills may attain residence times of > 100 kyr. These millennial lag times in the Himalayan sediment routing system may sufficiently buffer signals of short-term seismic as well as climatic disturbances, thus complicating simple correlation and interpretation of sedimentary archives from the Himalayan orogen, its foreland, and its submarine fan systems. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Glacial advances constrained by Be-10 exposure dating of bedrock landslides, Kyrgyz Tien Shan
(2011)
Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first Be-10 exposure ages for three prominent (>10(7) m(3)) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three Be-10 ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11-15 ka, which is consistent with two C-14 ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a Be-10 age of 63-67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable Be-10 ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of Be-10. Two Be-10 ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and I Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4-0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential. (C) 2011 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de-glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non-linear response of firn and ice to warming; three-dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de-glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short-term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag-time effects.
Projected scenarios of climate change involve general predictions about the likely changes to the magnitude and frequency of landslides, particularly as a consequence of altered precipitation and temperature regimes. Whether such landslide response to contemporary or past climate change may be captured in differing scaling statistics of landslide size distributions and the erosion rates derived thereof remains debated. We test this notion with simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations of statistical models commonly used to characterize empirical landslide size distributions. Our results show that significant changes to total volumes contained in such inventories may be masked by statistically indistinguishable scaling parameters, critically depending on, among others, the size of the largest of landslides recorded. Conversely, comparable model parameter values may obscure significant, i.e. more than twofold, changes to landslide occurrence, and thus inferred rates of hillslope denudation and sediment delivery to drainage networks. A time series of some of Earth's largest mass movements reveals clustering near and partly before the last glacial-interglacial transition and a distinct step-over from white noise to temporal clustering around this period. However, elucidating whether this is a distinct signal of first-order climate-change impact on slope stability or simply coincides with a transition from short-term statistical noise to long-term steady-state conditions remains an important research challenge.
Quantifying volumes and rates of delivery of terrestrial sediment from island arcs to subduction zones is indispensable for refining estimates of the thickness of trench fills that may eventually control the location and timing of submarine landslides and tsunami-generating mega-earthquakes. Despite these motivating insights, knowledge about the rates of erosion and sediment export from the Japanese islands to their Pacific subduction zones remains patchy regardless of the increasing availability of highly resolved data on surface deformation, climate, geology, and topography. Traditionally, natural erosion rates across the island arc have been estimated from regression of topographic catchment metrics and reservoir sedimentation rates that were recorded over several years to decades. We review current research in this context, correct for a systematic bias in one of the most widely used predictions, and present new estimates of decadal to millennial-scale erosion rates of Japan's terrestrial inner forearc. We draw on several independent and unprecedented inventories of mass wasting, reservoir sedimentation, and concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10 in river sands. We find that natural Be-10-derived denudation rates of several mm yr(-1) in the Japanese Alps have been sustained over several centuries to millennia, and are, within error, roughly consistent with sediment yields inferred from artificial reservoir sedimentation. Local exceptions may likely result from release of sediment storage or regional landsliding episodes that trigger transient sediment pulses. Our synopsis further reveals that catchments draining Japan's eastern seaboard differ distinctly in their tectonic, lithological, topographic, and climatic characteristics between the Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nankai inner forearc segments, which is underscored by a marked asymmetric pattern of erosion rates along the island arc. Erosion rates are highest (up to at least 3 mm yr(-1)) in the Japanese Alps that mark the collision of two subduction zones, where high topographic relief, hillslope and bedrock-channel steepness foster rapid denudation by mass wasting. Comparable, if slightly lower, erosion rates characterise the Nankai inner forearc in southwest Japan, most likely due to higher typhoon-driven rainfall totals and variability rather than its high topographic relief. In contrast, our estimated erosion and flux rates are lowest in the Tohoku inner forearc catchments that feed sediment into the Japan Trench. We conclude that collisional mountain building of the Japanese Alps drives some of the highest erosion rates in the island arc despite similar uplift and precipitation controls in southwest Japan. We infer that, prior to extensive river damming, reservoir construction, and coastal works, the gross of Japan's total sediment export to the Pacific Ocean entered the accretionary margin of the Nankai Trough as opposed to the comparatively sediment-starved Japan Trench. Compared to documented contemporary rates of sediment flux from mountainous catchments elsewhere in the Pacific, the rivers draining Japan's inner forearc take an intermediate position despite high relief, steep slopes, very high seismicity, and frequent rainstorms. However, the average rates of millennial-scale denudation in the Japanese Alps particularly are amongst the highest reported worldwide.
Local mismatches between these late Holocene and modern rates emphasise the anthropogenic fingerprint on sediment retention that may have significantly reduced the island arc's mass flux to its subduction zones, as is the case elsewhere in east and southeast Asia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Late Quaternary valley infill and dissection in the Indus River, western Tibetan Plateau margin
(2014)
The Indus, one of Earth's major rivers, drains large parts of the NW Himalaya and the Transhimalayan ranges that form part of the western Tibetan Plateau margin. In the western Himalayan syntaxis, where local topographic relief exceeds 7 km, the Indus has incised a steep bedrock gorge at rates of several mm yr(-1). Upstream, however, the upper Indus and its tributaries alternate between bedrock gorges and broad alluvial flats flanked by the Ladakh and Zanskar ranges. We review the late Quaternary valley history in this region with a focus on the confluence of the Indus and Zanskar Rivers, where vast alluvial terrace staircases and lake sediments record major episodes of aggradation and incision. New absolute dating of high-level fluvial terrace remnants using cosmogenic Be-10, optically and infrared stimulated luminescence (OSL, IRSL) indicates at least two phases of late Quaternary valley infilling. These phases commenced before similar to 200 ka and similar to 50-20 ka, judging from terrace treads stranded >150 m and similar to 30-40 m above modern river levels, respectively. Numerous stacks of lacustrine sediments that straddle the Indus River >200 km between the city of Leh and the confluence with the Shyok River share a distinct horizontal alignment. Constraints from IRSL samples of lacustrine sequences from the Leh-Spituk area reveal a protracted lake phase from >177 ka to 72 ka, locally accumulating >50-m thick deposits. In the absence of tectonic faulting, major lithological differences, and stream capture, we attribute the formation of this and other large lakes in the region to natural damming by large landslides, glaciers, and alluvial fans. The overall patchy landform age constraints from earlier studies can be reconciled by postulating a major deglacial control on sediment flux, valley infilling, and subsequent incision that has been modulated locally by backwater effects of natural damming. While comparison with Pleistocene monsoon proxies reveals no obvious correlation, a lateor post-glacial sediment pulse seems a more likely source of this widespread sedimentation that has partly buried the dissected bedrock topography. Overall, the long residence times of fluvial, alluvial and lacustrine deposits in the region (>500 ka) support previous studies, but remain striking given the dominantly steep slopes and deeply carved valleys that characterise this high-altitude mountain desert. Recalculated late Quaternary rates of fluvial bedrock incision in the Indus and Zanskar of 1.5 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1) are at odds with the longevity of juxtaposed valley-fill deposits, unless a lack of decisive lateral fluvial erosion helps to preserve these late Pleistocene sedimentary archives. We conclude that alternating, similar to 10(4)-yr long, phases of massive infilling and incision have dominated the late Quaternary history of the Indus valley below the western Tibetan Plateau margin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The 2002 M-w 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate in quantitative detail the regional hillslope mass-wasting response to strong seismic shaking in glacierized terrain. We present the first detailed inventory of similar to 1580 coseismic slope failures, out of which some 20% occurred above large valley glaciers, based on mapping from multi-temporal remote sensing data. We find that the Denali earthquake produced at least one order of magnitude fewer landslides in a much narrower corridor along the fault ruptures than empirical predictions for an M 8 earthquake would suggest, despite the availability of sufficiently steep and dissected mountainous topography prone to frequent slope failure. In order to explore potential controls on the reduced extent of regional coseismic landsliding we compare our data with inventories that we compiled for two recent earthquakes in periglacial and formerly glaciated terrain, i.e. at Yushu, Tibet (M-w 6.9, 2010), and Aysen Fjord, Chile (2007 M-w 6.2). Fault movement during these events was, similarly to that of the Denali earthquake, dominated by strike-slip offsets along near-vertical faults. Our comparison returns very similar coseismic landslide patterns that are consistent with the idea that fault type, geometry, and dynamic rupture process rather than widespread glacier cover were among the first-order controls on regional hillslope erosional response in these earthquakes. We conclude that estimating the amount of coseismic hillslope sediment input to the sediment cascade from earthquake magnitude alone remains highly problematic, particularly if glacierized terrain is involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dealing with predicted increases in extreme weather conditions due to climate change requires robust knowledge about controls on rainfall-triggered landslides. We explore relationships between rainfall and landslide size throughout the Japanese archipelago. We test whether the total volume of landslides can be predicted directly from rainfall totals, intensity, and duration using a nationwide inventory of 4744 rainfall-triggered landslides recorded from A.D. 2001 to 2011. We find that larger landslides were more abundant at the expense of smaller ones when total, maximum, and mean rainfall intensity exceeded similar to 250 mm, similar to 35 mm/h, and similar to 4 mm/h, respectively. Frequency distributions of these rainfall parameters are peaked and heavily skewed. Yet neither the most frequent nor the most extreme values of these rainfall metrics coincide consistently with the maximum landslide volumes. A striking decrease of landslide volumes at both mean and maximum rainfall intensity, as well as duration, points to an exhaustion in hillslope geomorphic response regardless of sample size, landslide type, mobilized volume, dominant lithology, or reporting bias. Our results underscore substantial offsets between the peaks of rainfall metrics and maximum associated landslide volumes, thus complicating straightforward estimates of geomorphic work from metrics of rainstorm magnitude or frequency. Only the rainfall total appears to be a suitable monotonic predictor of landslide volumes mobilized during typhoons and frontal storms.
The growing body of research on large-scale mass wasting events so far has only scarcely investigated the sedimentology of chaotic deposits from non-volcanic terrestrial landslides such that any overarching and systematic terminological framework remains elusive. Yet recent work has emphasized the need for better understanding the internal structure and composition of rockslide deposits as a means to characterise the mechanics during the final stages of runout and emplacement. We offer a comprehensive overview on the occurrence of rock fragmentation and frictional melt both at different geographic locations, and different sections within large (>10(6) m(3)) rockslide masses. We argue that exposures of pervasively fragmented and interlocked jigsaw-cracked rock masses; basal melange containing rip-up clasts and phantom blocks; micro-breccia; and thin bands of basal frictionite are indispensable clues for identifying deposits from giant rockslides that may remain morphologically inconspicuous otherwise. These sedimentary assemblages are diagnostic tools for distinguishing large rockslide debris from macro and microscopically similar glacial deposits, tectonic fault-zone breccias, and impact breccias, and thus help avoid palaeoclimatic and tectonic misinterpretations, let alone misestimates of the hazard from giant rockslides. Moreover, experimental results from Mossbauer spectroscopy of frictionite samples support visual interpretations of thin sections, and demonstrate that short-lived (<10 s) friction-induced partial melting at temperatures >1500 degrees C in the absence of water occurred at the base of several giant moving rockslides. This finding supports previous theories of dry excess runout accompanied by comminution of rock masses down to gm-scale, and indicates that catastrophic motion of large fragmenting rock masses does not require water as a potential lubricant.
Limits to lichenometry
(2015)
Lichenometry is a straightforward and inexpensive method for dating Holocene rock surfaces. The rationale is that the diameter of the largest lichen scales with the age of the originally fresh rock surface that it colonised. The success of the method depends on finding the largest lichen diameters, a suitable lichen-growth model, and a robust calibration curve. Recent critique of the method motivates us to revisit the accuracy and uncertainties of lichenometry. Specifically, we test how well lichenometry is capable of resolving the ages of different lobes of large active rock glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. We use a bootstrapped quantile regression to calibrate local growth curves of Xanthoria elegans, Aspicilia tianshanica, and Rhizocarpon geographicum, and report a nonlinear decrease in dating accuracy with increasing lichen diameter. A Bayesian type of an analysis of variance demonstrates that our calibration allows discriminating credibly between rock-glacier lobes of different ages despite the uncertainties tied to sample size and correctly identifying the largest lichen thalli. Our results also show that calibration error grows with lichen size, so that the separability of rock-glacier lobes of different ages decreases, while the tendency to assign coeval ages increases. The abundant young (<200 yr) specimen of fast-growing X elegans are in contrast with the fewer, slow-growing, but older (200-1500 yr) R. geographicum and A. tianshanica, and record either a regional reactivation of lobes in the past 200 years, or simply a censoring effect of lichen mortality during early phases of colonisation. The high variance of lichen sizes captures the activity of rock-glacier lobes, which is difficult to explain by regional climatic cooling or earthquake triggers alone. Therefore, we caution against inferring palaeoclimatic conditions from the topographic position of rock-glacier lobes. We conclude that lichenometry works better as a tool for establishing a relative, rather than an absolute, chronology of rock-glacier lobes in the northern Tien Shan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Norwegian traffic network is impacted by about 2000 landslides, avalanches, and debris flows each year that incur high economic losses. Despite the urgent need to mitigate future losses, efforts to locate potential debris flow source areas have been rare at the regional scale. We tackle this research gap by exploring a minimal set of possible topographic predictors of debris flow initiation that we input to a Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) model for mapping the regional susceptibility to debris flows in western Norway. We use an inventory of 429 debris flows that were recorded between 1979 and 2008, and use the terrain variables of slope, total curvature, and contributing area (flow accumulation) to compute the posterior probabilities of local debris flow occurrence. The novelty of our approach is that we quantify the uncertainties in the WofE approach arising from different predictor classification schemes and data input, while estimating model accuracy and predictive performance from independent test data. Our results show that a percentile-based classification scheme excels over a manual classification of the predictor variables because differing abundances in manually defined bins reduce the reliability of the conditional independence tests, a key, and often neglected, prerequisite for the WofE method. The conditional dependence between total curvature and flow accumulation precludes their joint use in the model. Slope gradient has the highest true positive rate (88%), although the fraction of area classified as susceptible is very large (37%). The predictive performance, i.e. the reduction of false positives, is improved when combined with either total curvature or flow accumulation. Bootstrapping shows that the combination of slope and flow accumulation provides more reliable predictions than the combination of slope and total curvature, and helps refining the use of slope-area plots for identifying morphometric fingerprints of debris flow source areas, an approach used outside the field of landslide susceptibility assessments.
Many mountain belts sustain prolonged snow cover for parts of the year, although enquiries into rates of erosion in these landscapes have focused almost exclusively on the snow-free periods. This raises the question of whether annual snow cover contributes significantly to modulating rates of erosion in high-relief terrain. In this context, the sudden release of snow avalanches is a frequent and potentially relevant process, judging from the physical damage to subalpine forest ecosystems, and the amount of debris contained in avalanche deposits. To quantitatively constrain this visual impression and to expand the sparse literature, we sampled sediment concentrations of n = 28 river-spanning snow-avalanche deposits (snow bridges) in the area around Davos, eastern Swiss Alps, and inferred an orders-of-magnitude variability in specific fine sediment and organic carbon yields (1.8 to 830 t km(-2) yr(-1), and 0.04 to 131 tC km(-2) yr(-1), respectively). A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that, with a minimum of free parameters, such variability is inherent to the geometric scaling used for computing specific yields. Moreover, the widely applied method of linearly extrapolating plot scale sample data may be prone to substantial under- or overestimates. A comparison of our inferred yields with previously published work demonstrates the relevance of wet snow avalanches as prominent agents of soil erosion and transporters of biogeochemical constituents to mountain rivers. Given that a number of snow bridges persisted below the insulating debris cover well into the summer months, snow-avalanche deposits also contribute to regulating in-channel sediment and organic debris storage on seasonal timescales. Finally, our results underline the potential shortcomings of neglecting erosional processes in the winter and spring months in mountainous terrain subjected to prominent snow cover.
Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks.
In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach.
Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.
The 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in southern Chile severely impacted several densely forested river catchments by supplying excess pyroclastic sediment to the channel networks. Our aim is to substantiate whether and how channel geometry and forest stands changed in the Rayas River following the sudden input of pyroclastic sediment. We measured the resulting changes to channel geometry and riparian forest stands along 17.6 km of the impacted gravel-bed Rayas River (294 km(2)) from multiple high-resolution satellite images, aerial photographs, and fieldwork to quantify yield volume characteristics of the forest stands. Limited channel changes during the last 60 years before the eruption reflect a dynamic equilibrium condition of the river corridor, despite the high annual precipitation and the sediment supply from Chaiten and Michinmahuida volcanoes in the headwaters. Images taken in 1945, 2004, and 2005 show that total size of the vegetated channel islands nearly doubled between 1945 and 2004 and remained unchanged between 2004 and 2005. Pyroclastic sediment entering the Rayas River after the 2008 eruption caused only minor average channel widening (7%), but killed all island vegetation in the study reach. Substantial shifts in the size distribution of in-channel vegetation patches reflect losses in total island area of 46% from 2005 to 2009 and an additional 34% from 2009 to 2012. The estimated pulsed release of organic carbon into the channel, mainly in the form of large wood from obliterated island and floodplain forests, was 78-400 tC/km/y and surpasses most documented yields from small mountainous catchments with similar rainfall, forest cover, and disturbance history, while making up between 20% and 60% of the annual carbon burial rate of fluvial sediments in the northern Patagonian fjords. We conclude that the carbon footprint of the 2008 Chaiten eruption on the Rayas River was more significant than the measured geomorphic impacts on channel geometry for the first five years following disturbance. The modest post-eruptive geomorphic response in this river is a poor indicator of its biogeochemical response. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Mass wasting is an important process for denuding hillslopes and lowering ridge crests in active mountain belts such as the Himalaya-Karakoram ranges (HKR). Such a high-relief landscape is likely to be at its mechanical threshold, maintained by competing rapid rock uplift, river incision, and pervasive slope failure. We introduce excess topography, Z(E), for quantifying potentially unstable rock-mass volumes inclined at angles greater than a specified threshold angle. We find that Z(E) peaks along major fluvial and glacial inner gorges, which is also where the majority of 492 large (>0.1 km(2)) rock-slope failures occur in the Himalaya's largest cluster of documented Pleistocene to Holocene bedrock landslides. Our data reveal that bedrock landslides in the HKR chiefly detached from near or below the median elevation, whereas glaciers and rock glaciers occupy higher-elevation bands almost exclusively. Less than 10% of the area of the HKR is upslope of glaciers, such that possible censoring of evidence of large bedrock landslides above the permanent snow line barely affects this finding. Bedrock landslides appear to preferentially undermine topographic relief in response to fluvial and glacial incision along inner gorges, unless more frequent and smaller undetected failures, or rigorous (peri-)glacial erosion, compensate for this role at higher elevation. Either way, the distinct patterns of excess topography and large bedrock landsliding in the HKR juxtapose two stacked domains of landslide and (peri-)glacial erosion that may respond to different time scales of perturbation. Our findings call for more detailed analysis of vertical erosional domains and their geomorphic coupling in active mountain belts.
In this study, we investigate how immersive 3D geovisualization can be used in higher education. Based on MacEachren and Kraak's geovisualization cube, we examine the usage of immersive 3D geovisualization and its usefulness in a research-based learning module on flood risk, called GEOSimulator. Results of a survey among participating students reveal benefits, such as better orientation in the study area, higher interactivity with the data, improved discourse among students and enhanced motivation through immersive 3D geovisualization. This suggests that immersive 3D visualization can effectively be used in higher education and that 3D CAVE settings enhance interactive learning between students.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
Roads at risk
(2015)
Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.