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This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.
For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.
In Germany, active bat rabies surveillance was conducted between 1993 and 2012. A total of 4546 oropharyngeal swab samples from 18 bat species were screened for the presence of EBLV-1- , EBLV-2- and BBLV-specific RNA. Overall, 0 center dot 15% of oropharyngeal swab samples tested EBLV-1 positive, with the majority originating from Eptesicus serotinus. Interestingly, out of seven RT-PCR-positive oropharyngeal swabs subjected to virus isolation, viable virus was isolated from a single serotine bat (E. serotinus). Additionally, about 1226 blood samples were tested serologically, and varying virus neutralizing antibody titres were found in at least eight different bat species. The detection of viral RNA and seroconversion in repeatedly sampled serotine bats indicates long-term circulation of the virus in a particular bat colony. The limitations of random-based active bat rabies surveillance over passive bat rabies surveillance and its possible application of targeted approaches for future research activities on bat lyssavirus dynamics and maintenance are discussed.