Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (124)
- Postprint (11)
- Monograph/Edited Volume (5)
- Other (3)
- Part of Periodical (3)
- Review (3)
- Conference Proceeding (1)
- Preprint (1)
Keywords
Institute
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (44)
- Department Psychologie (27)
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (25)
- Institut für Chemie (16)
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (16)
- Hasso-Plattner-Institut für Digital Engineering GmbH (5)
- Humanwissenschaftliche Fakultät (4)
- Extern (3)
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (3)
- Arbeitskreis Militär und Gesellschaft in der Frühen Neuzeit e. V. (2)
The inner region of the Milky Way halo harbors a large amount of dark matter (DM). Given its proximity, it is one of the most promising targets to look for DM. We report on a search for the annihilations of DM particles using gamma-ray observations towards the inner 300 pc of the Milky Way, with the H.E.S.S. array of ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. The analysis is based on a 2D maximum likelihood method using Galactic Center (GC) data accumulated by H.E.S.S. over the last 10 years (2004-2014), and does not show any significant gamma-ray signal above background. Assuming Einasto and Navarro-Frenk-White DM density profiles at the GC, we derive upper limits on the annihilation cross section <sigma nu >. These constraints are the strongest obtained so far in the TeV DM mass range and improve upon previous limits by a factor 5. For the Einasto profile, the constraints reach <sigma nu > values of 6 x 10(-26) cm(3) s(-1) in the W+W- channel for a DM particle mass of 1.5 TeV, and 2 x 10(-26) cm(3) s(-1) in the tau(+)tau(-) channel for a 1 TeV mass. For the first time, ground-based gamma-ray observations have reached sufficient sensitivity to probe <sigma nu > values expected from the thermal relic density for TeV DM particles.
Land-use intensification is a major driver of biodiversity loss(1,2). Alongside reductions in local species diversity, biotic homogenization at larger spatial scales is of great concern for conservation. Biotic homogenization means a decrease in beta-diversity (the compositional dissimilarity between sites). Most studies have investigated losses in local (alpha)-diversity(1,3) and neglected biodiversity loss at larger spatial scales. Studies addressing beta-diversity have focused on single or a few organism groups (for example, ref. 4), and it is thus unknown whether land-use intensification homogenizes communities at different trophic levels, above-and belowground. Here we show that even moderate increases in local land-use intensity (LUI) cause biotic homogenization across microbial, plant and animal groups, both above- and belowground, and that this is largely independent of changes in alpha-diversity. We analysed a unique grassland biodiversity dataset, with abundances of more than 4,000 species belonging to 12 trophic groups. LUI, and, in particular, high mowing intensity, had consistent effects on beta-diversity across groups, causing a homogenization of soil microbial, fungal pathogen, plant and arthropod communities. These effects were nonlinear and the strongest declines in beta-diversity occurred in the transition from extensively managed to intermediate intensity grassland. LUI tended to reduce local alpha-diversity in aboveground groups, whereas the alpha-diversity increased in belowground groups. Correlations between the alpha-diversity of different groups, particularly between plants and their consumers, became weaker at high LUI. This suggests a loss of specialist species and is further evidence for biotic homogenization. The consistently negative effects of LUI on landscape-scale biodiversity underscore the high value of extensively managed grasslands for conserving multitrophic biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Indeed, biotic homogenization rather than local diversity loss could prove to be the most substantial consequence of land-use intensification.
Land-use intensification is a key driver of biodiversity change. However, little is known about how it alters relationships between the diversities of different taxonomic groups, which are often correlated due to shared environmental drivers and trophic interactions. Using data from 150 grassland sites, we examined how land-use intensification (increased fertilization, higher livestock densities, and increased mowing frequency) altered correlations between the species richness of 15 plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. We found that 54% of pairwise correlations between taxonomic groups were significant and positive among all grasslands, while only one was negative. Higher land-use intensity substantially weakened these correlations(35% decrease in rand 43% fewer significant pairwise correlations at high intensity), a pattern which may emerge as a result of biodiversity declines and the breakdown of specialized relationships in these conditions. Nevertheless, some groups (Coleoptera, Heteroptera, Hymenoptera and Orthoptera) were consistently correlated with multidiversity, an aggregate measure of total biodiversity comprised of the standardized diversities of multiple taxa, at both high and lowland-use intensity. The form of intensification was also important; increased fertilization and mowing frequency typically weakened plant-plant and plant-primary consumer correlations, whereas grazing intensification did not. This may reflect decreased habitat heterogeneity under mowing and fertilization and increased habitat heterogeneity under grazing. While these results urge caution in using certain taxonomic groups to monitor impacts of agricultural management on biodiversity, they also suggest that the diversities of some groups are reasonably robust indicators of total biodiversity across a range of conditions.
For the layered transition metal dichalcogenide 1T-TaS2, we establish through a unique experimental approach and density functional theory, how ultrafast charge transfer in 1T-TaS2 takes on isotropic three-dimensional character or anisotropic two-dimensional character, depending on the commensurability of the charge density wave phases of 1T-TaS2. The X-ray spectroscopic core-hole-clock method prepares selectively in-and out-of-plane polarized sulfur 3p orbital occupation with respect to the 1T-TaS2 planes and monitors sub-femtosecond wave packet delocalization. Despite being a prototypical two-dimensional material, isotropic three-dimensional charge transfer is found in the commensurate charge density wave phase (CCDW), indicating strong coupling between layers. In contrast, anisotropic two-dimensional charge transfer occurs for the nearly commensurate phase (NCDW). In direct comparison, theory shows that interlayer interaction in the CCDW phase - not layer stacking variations - causes isotropic three-dimensional charge transfer. This is presumably a general mechanism for phase transitions and tailored properties of dichalcogenides with charge density waves.
We present a setup combining a liquid flatjet sample delivery and a MHz laser system for time-resolved soft X-ray absorption measurements of liquid samples at the high brilliance undulator beamline UE52-SGM at Bessy II yielding unprecedented statistics in this spectral range. We demonstrate that the efficient detection of transient absorption changes in transmission mode enables the identification of photoexcited species in dilute samples. With iron(II)-trisbipyridine in aqueous solution as a benchmark system, we present absorption measurements at various edges in the soft X-ray regime. In combination with the wavelength tunability of the laser system, the set-up opens up opportunities to study the photochemistry of many systems at low concentrations, relevant to materials sciences, chemistry, and biology. (C) 2017 Author(s).
Rodin has it!
(2020)
We report a new discovery on the role of hands in guiding attention, using the classic Stroop effect as our assay. We show that the Stroop effect diminishes, hence selective attention improves, when observers hold their chin, emulating Rodin's famous sculpture, "The Thinker." In two experiments we show that the Rodin posture improves the selectivity of attention as efficiently as holding the hands nearby the visual stimulus (the near-hands effect). Because spatial proximity to the displayed stimulus is neither present nor intended, the presence of the Rodin effect implies that attentional prioritization by the hands is not limited to the space between the hands.
The active global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic caused more than 426 million cases and 5.8 million deaths worldwide. The development of completely new drugs for such a novel disease is a challenging, time intensive process. Despite researchers around the world working on this task, no effective treatments have been developed yet. This emphasizes the importance of drug repurposing, where treatments are found among existing drugs that are meant for different diseases. A common approach to this is based on knowledge graphs, that condense relationships between entities like drugs, diseases and genes. Graph neural networks (GNNs) can then be used for the task at hand by predicting links in such knowledge graphs. Expanding on state-of-the-art GNN research, Doshi et al. recently developed the Dr-COVID model. We further extend their work using additional output interpretation strategies. The best aggregation strategy derives a top-100 ranking of 8,070 candidate drugs, 32 of which are currently being tested in COVID-19-related clinical trials. Moreover, we present an alternative application for the model, the generation of additional candidates based on a given pre-selection of drug candidates using collaborative filtering. In addition, we improved the implementation of the Dr-COVID model by significantly shortening the inference and pre-processing time by exploiting data-parallelism. As drug repurposing is a task that requires high computation and memory resources, we further accelerate the post-processing phase using a new emerging hardware-we propose a new approach to leverage the use of high-capacity Non-Volatile Memory for aggregate drug ranking.
Charge transport layers (CTLs) are key components of diffusion controlled perovskite solar cells, however, they can induce additional non-radiative recombination pathways which limit the open circuit voltage (V-OC) of the cell. In order to realize the full thermodynamic potential of the perovskite absorber, both the electron and hole transport layer (ETL/HTL) need to be as selective as possible. By measuring the photoluminescence yield of perovskite/CTL heterojunctions, we quantify the non-radiative interfacial recombination currents in pin- and nip-type cells including high efficiency devices (21.4%). Our study comprises a wide range of commonly used CTLs, including various hole-transporting polymers, spiro-OMeTAD, metal oxides and fullerenes. We find that all studied CTLs limit the V-OC by inducing an additional non-radiative recombination current that is in most cases substantially larger than the loss in the neat perovskite and that the least-selective interface sets the upper limit for the V-OC of the device. Importantly, the V-OC equals the internal quasi-Fermi level splitting (QFLS) in the absorber layer only in high efficiency cells, while in poor performing devices, the V-OC is substantially lower than the QFLS. Using ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy and differential charging capacitance experiments we show that this is due to an energy level mis-alignment at the p-interface. The findings are corroborated by rigorous device simulations which outline important considerations to maximize the V-OC. This work highlights that the challenge to suppress non-radiative recombination losses in perovskite cells on their way to the radiative limit lies in proper energy level alignment and in suppression of defect recombination at the interfaces.
The performance of perovskite solar cells is predominantly limited by non-radiative recombination, either through trap-assisted recombination in the absorber layer or via minority carrier recombination at the perovskite/transport layer interfaces. Here, we use transient and absolute photoluminescence imaging to visualize all non-radiative recombination pathways in planar pintype perovskite solar cells with undoped organic charge transport layers. We find significant quasi-Fermi-level splitting losses (135 meV) in the perovskite bulk, whereas interfacial recombination results in an additional free energy loss of 80 meV at each individual interface, which limits the open-circuit voltage (V-oc) of the complete cell to similar to 1.12 V. Inserting ultrathin interlayers between the perovskite and transport layers leads to a substantial reduction of these interfacial losses at both the p and n contacts. Using this knowledge and approach, we demonstrate reproducible dopant-free 1 cm(2) perovskite solar cells surpassing 20% efficiency (19.83% certified) with stabilized power output, a high V-oc (1.17 V) and record fill factor (>81%).
The immense advances in computer power achieved in the last decades have had a significant impact in Earth science, providing valuable research outputs that allow the simulation of complex natural processes and systems, and generating improved forecasts. The development and implementation of innovative geoscientific software is currently evolving towards a sustainable and efficient development by integrating models of different aspects of the Earth system. This will set the foundation for a future digital twin of the Earth. The codification and update of this software require great effort from research groups and therefore, it needs to be preserved for its reuse by future generations of geoscientists. Here, we report on Geo-Soft-CoRe, a Geoscientific Software & Code Repository, hosted at the archive DIGITAL.CSIC. This is an open source, multidisciplinary and multiscale collection of software and code developed to analyze different aspects of the Earth system, encompassing tools to: 1) analyze climate variability; 2) assess hazards, and 3) characterize the structure and dynamics of the solid Earth. Due to the broad range of applications of these software packages, this collection is useful not only for basic research in Earth science, but also for applied research and educational purposes, reducing the gap between the geosciences and the society. By providing each software and code with a permanent identifier (DOI), we ensure its self-sustainability and accomplish the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principles. Therefore, we aim for a more transparent science, transferring knowledge in an easier way to the geoscience community, and encouraging an integrated use of computational infrastructure.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has become an effective method to measure soil moisture at a horizontal scale of hundreds of metres and a depth of decimetres. Recent studies proposed operating CRNS in a network with overlapping footprints in order to cover root-zone water dynamics at the small catchment scale and, at the same time, to represent spatial heterogeneity. In a joint field campaign from September to November 2020 (JFC-2020), five German research institutions deployed 15 CRNS sensors in the 0.4 km2 Wüstebach catchment (Eifel mountains, Germany). The catchment is dominantly forested (but includes a substantial fraction of open vegetation) and features a topographically distinct catchment boundary. In addition to the dense CRNS coverage, the campaign featured a unique combination of additional instruments and techniques: hydro-gravimetry (to detect water storage dynamics also below the root zone); ground-based and, for the first time, airborne CRNS roving; an extensive wireless soil sensor network, supplemented by manual measurements; and six weighable lysimeters. Together with comprehensive data from the long-term local research infrastructure, the published data set (available at https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.756ca0485800474e9dc7f5949c63b872; Heistermann et al., 2022) will be a valuable asset in various research contexts: to advance the retrieval of landscape water storage from CRNS, wireless soil sensor networks, or hydrogravimetry; to identify scale-specific combinations of sensors and methods to represent soil moisture variability; to improve the understanding and simulation of land–atmosphere exchange as well as hydrological and hydrogeological processes at the hillslope and the catchment scale; and to support the retrieval of soil water content from airborne and spaceborne remote sensing platforms.
Perovskite photovoltaic (PV) cells have demonstrated power conversion efficiencies (PCE) that are close to those of monocrystalline silicon cells; however, in contrast to silicon PV, perovskites are not limited by Auger recombination under 1-sun illumination. Nevertheless, compared to GaAs and monocrystalline silicon PV, perovskite cells have significantly lower fill factors due to a combination of resistive and non-radiative recombination losses. This necessitates a deeper understanding of the underlying loss mechanisms and in particular the ideality factor of the cell. By measuring the intensity dependence of the external open-circuit voltage and the internal quasi-Fermi level splitting (QFLS), the transport resistance-free efficiency of the complete cell as well as the efficiency potential of any neat perovskite film with or without attached transport layers are quantified. Moreover, intensity-dependent QFLS measurements on different perovskite compositions allows for disentangling of the impact of the interfaces and the perovskite surface on the non-radiative fill factor and open-circuit voltage loss. It is found that potassium-passivated triple cation perovskite films stand out by their exceptionally high implied PCEs > 28%, which could be achieved with ideal transport layers. Finally, strategies are presented to reduce both the ideality factor and transport losses to push the efficiency to the thermodynamic limit.
Perovskite photovoltaic (PV) cells have demonstrated power conversion efficiencies (PCE) that are close to those of monocrystalline silicon cells; however, in contrast to silicon PV, perovskites are not limited by Auger recombination under 1-sun illumination. Nevertheless, compared to GaAs and monocrystalline silicon PV, perovskite cells have significantly lower fill factors due to a combination of resistive and non-radiative recombination losses. This necessitates a deeper understanding of the underlying loss mechanisms and in particular the ideality factor of the cell. By measuring the intensity dependence of the external open-circuit voltage and the internal quasi-Fermi level splitting (QFLS), the transport resistance-free efficiency of the complete cell as well as the efficiency potential of any neat perovskite film with or without attached transport layers are quantified. Moreover, intensity-dependent QFLS measurements on different perovskite compositions allows for disentangling of the impact of the interfaces and the perovskite surface on the non-radiative fill factor and open-circuit voltage loss. It is found that potassium-passivated triple cation perovskite films stand out by their exceptionally high implied PCEs > 28%, which could be achieved with ideal transport layers. Finally, strategies are presented to reduce both the ideality factor and transport losses to push the efficiency to the thermodynamic limit.
Economic evaluation of digital therapeutic care apps for unsupervised treatment of low back pain
(2023)
Background:
Digital therapeutic care (DTC) programs are unsupervised app-based treatments that provide video exercises and educational material to patients with nonspecific low back pain during episodes of pain and functional disability. German statutory health insurance can reimburse DTC programs since 2019, but evidence on efficacy and reasonable pricing remains scarce. This paper presents a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of a DTC app against treatment as usual (TAU) in Germany.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to perform a PSA in the form of a Monte Carlo simulation based on the deterministic base case analysis to account for model assumptions and parameter uncertainty. We also intend to explore to what extent the results in this probabilistic analysis differ from the results in the base case analysis and to what extent a shortage of outcome data concerning quality-of-life (QoL) metrics impacts the overall results.
Methods:
The PSA builds upon a state-transition Markov chain with a 4-week cycle length over a model time horizon of 3 years from a recently published deterministic cost-utility analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations and a cohort size of 10,000 was employed to evaluate the cost-utility from a societal perspective. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived from Veterans RAND 6-Dimension (VR-6D) and Short-Form 6-Dimension (SF-6D) single utility scores. Finally, we also simulated reducing the price for a 3-month app prescription to analyze at which price threshold DTC would result in being the dominant strategy over TAU in Germany.
Results:
The Monte Carlo simulation yielded on average a euro135.97 (a currency exchange rate of EUR euro1=US $1.069 is applicable) incremental cost and 0.004 incremental QALYs per person and year for the unsupervised DTC app strategy compared to in-person physiotherapy in Germany. The corresponding incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) amounts to an additional euro34,315.19 per additional QALY. DTC yielded more QALYs in 54.96% of the iterations. DTC dominates TAU in 24.04% of the iterations for QALYs. Reducing the app price in the simulation from currently euro239.96 to euro164.61 for a 3-month prescription could yield a negative ICUR and thus make DTC the dominant strategy, even though the estimated probability of DTC being more effective than TAU is only 54.96%.
Conclusions:
Decision-makers should be cautious when considering the reimbursement of DTC apps since no significant treatment effect was found, and the probability of cost-effectiveness remains below 60% even for an infinite willingness-to-pay threshold. More app-based studies involving the utilization of QoL outcome parameters are urgently needed to account for the low and limited precision of the available QoL input parameters, which are crucial to making profound recommendations concerning the cost-utility of novel apps.
Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) allows for the estimation of root-zone soil water content (SWC) at the scale of several hectares. In this paper, we present the data recorded by a dense CRNS network operated from 2019 to 2022 at an agricultural research site in Marquardt, Germany - the first multi-year CRNS cluster. Consisting, at its core, of eight permanently installed CRNS sensors, the cluster was supplemented by a wealth of complementary measurements: data from seven additional temporary CRNS sensors, partly co-located with the permanent ones; 27 SWC profiles (mostly permanent); two groundwater observation wells; meteorological records; and Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R). Complementary to these continuous measurements, numerous campaign-based activities provided data by mobile CRNS roving, hyperspectral im-agery via UASs, intensive manual sampling of soil properties (SWC, bulk density, organic matter, texture, soil hydraulic properties), and observations of biomass and snow (cover, depth, and density). The unique temporal coverage of 3 years entails a broad spectrum of hydro-meteorological conditions, including exceptional drought periods and extreme rainfall but also episodes of snow coverage, as well as a dedicated irrigation experiment. Apart from serving to advance CRNS-related retrieval methods, this data set is expected to be useful for vari-ous disciplines, for example, soil and groundwater hydrology, agriculture, or remote sensing. Hence, we show exemplary features of the data set in order to highlight the potential for such subsequent studies. The data are available at doi.org/10.23728/b2share.551095325d74431881185fba1eb09c95 (Heistermann et al., 2022b).
The 2010 very high energy gamma-ray flare and 10 years ofmulti-wavelength oservations of M 87
(2012)
The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) x 10(9) M-circle dot) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of supermassive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of tau(rise)(d) = (1.69 +/- 0.30) days and tau(decay)(d) = (0.611 +/- 0.080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (similar to day), peak fluxes (Phi(>0.35 TeV) similar or equal to (1-3) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1)), and VHE spectra. VLBA radio observations of 43 GHz of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken similar to 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor similar to 2; variability timescale <2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.
Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.