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The spread of shrubs in Namibian savannas raises questions about the resilience of these ecosystems to global change. This makes it necessary to understand the past dynamics of the vegetation, since there is no consensus on whether shrub encroachment is a new phenomenon, nor on its main drivers. However, a lack of long-term vegetation datasets for the region and the scarcity of suitable palaeoecological archives, makes reconstructing past vegetation and land cover of the savannas a challenge.
To help meet this challenge, this study addresses three main research questions: 1) is pollen analysis a suitable tool to reflect the vegetation change associated with shrub encroachment in savanna environments? 2) Does the current encroached landscape correspond to an alternative stable state of savanna vegetation? 3) To what extent do pollen-based quantitative vegetation reconstructions reflect changes in past land cover?
The research focuses on north-central Namibia, where despite being the region most affected by shrub invasion, particularly since the 21st century, little is known about the dynamics of this phenomenon.
Field-based vegetation data were compared with modern pollen data to assess their correspondence in terms of composition and diversity along precipitation and grazing intensity gradients. In addition, two sediment cores from Lake Otjikoto were analysed to reveal changes in vegetation composition that have occurred in the region over the past 170 years and their possible drivers. For this, a multiproxy approach (fossil pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), biomarkers, compound specific carbon (δ13C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ13Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) was applied at high taxonomic and temporal resolution. REVEALS modelling of the fossil pollen record from Lake Otjikoto was run to quantitatively reconstruct past vegetation cover. For this, we first made pollen productivity estimates (PPE) of the most relevant savanna taxa in the region using the extended R-value model and two pollen dispersal options (Gaussian plume model and Lagrangian stochastic model). The REVEALS-based vegetation reconstruction was then validated using remote sensing-based regional vegetation data.
The results show that modern pollen reflects the composition of the vegetation well, but diversity less well. Interestingly, precipitation and grazing explain a significant amount of the compositional change in the pollen and vegetation spectra. The multiproxy record shows that a state change from open Combretum woodland to encroached Terminalia shrubland can occur over a century, and that the transition between states spans around 80 years and is characterized by a unique vegetation composition. This transition is supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management (i.e. broad-scale logging for the mining industry, selective grazing and reduced fire activity associated with intensified farming) and related land-use change. Derived environmental changes (i.e. reduced soil moisture, reduced grass cover, changes in species composition and competitiveness, reduced fire intensity) may have affected the resilience of Combretum open woodlands, making them more susceptible to change to an encroached state by stochastic events such as consecutive years of precipitation and drought, and by high concentrations of pCO2. We assume that the resulting encroached state was further stabilized by feedback mechanisms that favour the establishment and competitiveness of woody vegetation.
The REVEALS-based quantitative estimates of plant taxa indicate the predominance of a semi-open landscape throughout the 20th century and a reduction in grass cover below 50% since the 21st century associated with the spread of encroacher woody taxa. Cover estimates show a close match with regional vegetation data, providing support for the vegetation dynamics inferred from multiproxy analyses. Reasonable PPEs were made for all woody taxa, but not for Poaceae.
In conclusion, pollen analysis is a suitable tool to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics in savannas. However, because pollen cannot identify grasses beyond family level, a multiproxy approach, particularly the use of sedaDNA, is required. I was able to separate stable encroached states from mere woodland phases, and could identify drivers and speculate about related feedbacks. In addition, the REVEALS-based quantitative vegetation reconstruction clearly reflects the magnitude of the changes in the vegetation cover that occurred during the last 130 years, despite the limitations of some PPEs.
This research provides new insights into pollen-vegetation relationships in savannas and highlights the importance of multiproxy approaches when reconstructing past vegetation dynamics in semi-arid environments. It also provides the first time series with sufficient taxonomic resolution to show changes in vegetation composition during shrub encroachment, as well as the first quantitative reconstruction of past land cover in the region. These results help to identify the different stages in savanna dynamics and can be used to calibrate predictive models of vegetation change, which are highly relevant to land management.
This thesis provides a novel view on the early stage of crystallization utilizing calcium carbonate as a model system. Calcium carbonate is of great economical, scientific and ecological importance, because it is a major part of water hardness, the most abundant Biomineral and forms huge amounts of geological sediments thus binding large amounts of carbon dioxide. The primary experiments base on the evolution of supersaturation via slow addition of dilute calcium chloride solution into dilute carbonate buffer. The time-dependent measurement of the Ca2+ potential and concurrent pH = constant titration facilitate the calculation of the amount of calcium and carbonate ions bound in pre-nucleation stage clusters, which have never been detected experimentally so far, and in the new phase after nucleation, respectively. Analytical Ultracentrifugation independently proves the existence of pre-nucleation stage clusters, and shows that the clusters forming at pH = 9.00 have a proximately time-averaged size of altogether 70 calcium and carbonate ions. Both experiments show that pre-nucleation stage cluster formation can be described by means of equilibrium thermodynamics. Effectively, the cluster formation equilibrium is physico-chemically characterized by means of a multiple-binding equilibrium of calcium ions to a ‘lattice’ of carbonate ions. The evaluation gives GIBBS standard energy for the formation of calcium/carbonate ion pairs in clusters, which exhibits a maximal value of approximately 17.2 kJ mol^-1 at pH = 9.75 and relates to a minimal binding strength in clusters at this pH-value. Nucleated calcium carbonate particles are amorphous at first and subsequently become crystalline. At high binding strength in clusters, only calcite (the thermodynamically stable polymorph) is finally obtained, while with decreasing binding strength in clusters, vaterite (the thermodynamically least stable polymorph) and presumably aragonite (the thermodynamically intermediate stable polymorph) are obtained additionally. Concurrently, two different solubility products of nucleated amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) are detected at low binding strength and high binding strength in clusters (ACC I 3.1EE-8 M^2, ACC II 3.8EE-8 M^2), respectively, indicating the precipitation of at least two different ACC species, while the clusters provide the precursor species of ACC. It is proximate that ACC I may relate to calcitic ACC –i.e. ACC exhibiting short range order similar to the long range order of calcite and that ACC II may relate to vateritic ACC, which will subsequently transform into the particular crystalline polymorph as discussed in the literature, respectively. Detailed analysis of nucleated particles forming at minimal binding strength in clusters (pH = 9.75) by means of SEM, TEM, WAXS and light microscopy shows that predominantly vaterite with traces of calcite forms. The crystalline particles of early stages are composed of nano-crystallites of approximately 5 to 10 nm size, respectively, which are aligned in high mutual order as in mesocrystals. The analyses of precipitation at pH = 9.75 in presence of additives –polyacrylic acid (pAA) as a model compound for scale inhibitors and peptides exhibiting calcium carbonate binding affinity as model compounds for crystal modifiers- shows that ACC I and ACC II are precipitated in parallel: pAA stabilizes ACC II particles against crystallization leading to their dissolution for the benefit of crystals that form from ACC I and exclusively calcite is finally obtained. Concurrently, the peptide additives analogously inhibit the formation of calcite and exclusively vaterite is finally obtained in case of one of the peptide additives. These findings show that classical nucleation theory is hardly applicable for the nucleation of calcium carbonate. The metastable system is stabilized remarkably due to cluster formation, while clusters forming by means of equilibrium thermodynamics are the nucleation relevant species and not ions. Most likely, the concept of cluster formation is a common phenomenon occurring during the precipitation of hardly soluble compounds as qualitatively shown for calcium oxalate and calcium phosphate. This finding is important for the fundamental understanding of crystallization and nucleation-inhibition and modification by additives with impact on materials of huge scientific and industrial importance as well as for better understanding of the mass transport in crystallization. It can provide a novel basis for simulation and modelling approaches. New mechanisms of scale formation in Bio- and Geomineralization and also in scale inhibition on the basis of the newly reported reaction channel need to be considered.
In soils and sediments there is a strong coupling between local biogeochemical processes and the distribution of water, electron acceptors, acids and nutrients. Both sides are closely related and affect each other from small scale to larger scales. Soil structures such as aggregates, roots, layers or macropores enhance the patchiness of these distributions. At the same time it is difficult to access the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of these parameter. Noninvasive imaging techniques with high spatial and temporal resolution overcome these limitations. And new non-invasive techniques are needed to study the dynamic interaction of plant roots with the surrounding soil, but also the complex physical and chemical processes in structured soils. In this study we developed an efficient non-destructive in-situ method to determine biogeochemical parameters relevant to plant roots growing in soil. This is a quantitative fluorescence imaging method suitable for visualizing the spatial and temporal pH changes around roots. We adapted the fluorescence imaging set-up and coupled it with neutron radiography to study simultaneously root growth, oxygen depletion by respiration activity and root water uptake. The combined set up was subsequently applied to a structured soil system to map the patchy structure of oxic and anoxic zones induced by a chemical oxygen consumption reaction for spatially varying water contents. Moreover, results from a similar fluorescence imaging technique for nitrate detection were complemented by a numerical modeling study where we used imaging data, aiming to simulate biodegradation under anaerobic, nitrate reducing conditions.
In the past, floods were basically managed by flood control mechanisms. The focus was set on the reduction of flood hazard. The potential consequences were of minor interest. Nowadays river flooding is increasingly seen from the risk perspective, including possible consequences. Moreover, the large-scale picture of flood risk became increasingly important for disaster management planning, national risk developments and the (re-) insurance industry. Therefore, it is widely accepted that risk-orientated flood management ap-proaches at the basin-scale are needed. However, large-scale flood risk assessment methods for areas of several 10,000 km² are still in early stages. Traditional flood risk assessments are performed reach wise, assuming constant probabilities for the entire reach or basin. This might be helpful on a local basis, but where large-scale patterns are important this approach is of limited use. Assuming a T-year flood (e.g. 100 years) for the entire river network is unrealistic and would lead to an overestimation of flood risk at the large scale. Due to the lack of damage data, additionally, the probability of peak discharge or rainfall is usually used as proxy for damage probability to derive flood risk. With a continuous and long term simulation of the entire flood risk chain, the spatial variability of probabilities could be consider and flood risk could be directly derived from damage data in a consistent way.
The objective of this study is the development and application of a full flood risk chain, appropriate for the large scale and based on long term and continuous simulation. The novel approach of ‘derived flood risk based on continuous simulations’ is introduced, where the synthetic discharge time series is used as input into flood impact models and flood risk is directly derived from the resulting synthetic damage time series.
The bottleneck at this scale is the hydrodynamic simu-lation. To find suitable hydrodynamic approaches for the large-scale a benchmark study with simplified 2D hydrodynamic models was performed. A raster-based approach with inertia formulation and a relatively high resolution of 100 m in combination with a fast 1D channel routing model was chosen.
To investigate the suitability of the continuous simulation of a full flood risk chain for the large scale, all model parts were integrated into a new framework, the Regional Flood Model (RFM). RFM consists of the hydrological model SWIM, a 1D hydrodynamic river network model, a 2D raster based inundation model and the flood loss model FELMOps+r. Subsequently, the model chain was applied to the Elbe catchment, one of the largest catchments in Germany. For the proof-of-concept, a continuous simulation was per-formed for the period of 1990-2003. Results were evaluated / validated as far as possible with available observed data in this period. Although each model part introduced its own uncertainties, results and runtime were generally found to be adequate for the purpose of continuous simulation at the large catchment scale.
Finally, RFM was applied to a meso-scale catchment in the east of Germany to firstly perform a flood risk assessment with the novel approach of ‘derived flood risk assessment based on continuous simulations’. Therefore, RFM was driven by long term synthetic meteorological input data generated by a weather generator. Thereby, a virtual time series of climate data of 100 x 100 years was generated and served as input to RFM providing subsequent 100 x 100 years of spatially consistent river discharge series, inundation patterns and damage values. On this basis, flood risk curves and expected annual damage could be derived directly from damage data, providing a large-scale picture of flood risk. In contrast to traditional flood risk analysis, where homogenous return periods are assumed for the entire basin, the presented approach provides a coherent large-scale picture of flood risk. The spatial variability of occurrence probability is respected. Additionally, data and methods are consistent. Catchment and floodplain processes are repre-sented in a holistic way. Antecedent catchment conditions are implicitly taken into account, as well as physical processes like storage effects, flood attenuation or channel–floodplain interactions and related damage influencing effects. Finally, the simulation of a virtual period of 100 x 100 years and consequently large data set on flood loss events enabled the calculation of flood risk directly from damage distributions. Problems associated with the transfer of probabilities in rainfall or peak runoff to probabilities in damage, as often used in traditional approaches, are bypassed.
RFM and the ‘derived flood risk approach based on continuous simulations’ has the potential to provide flood risk statements for national planning, re-insurance aspects or other questions where spatially consistent, large-scale assessments are required.