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This work introduces concepts and corresponding tool support to enable a complementary approach in dealing with recovery. Programmers need to recover a development state, or a part thereof, when previously made changes reveal undesired implications. However, when the need arises suddenly and unexpectedly, recovery often involves expensive and tedious work. To avoid tedious work, literature recommends keeping away from unexpected recovery demands by following a structured and disciplined approach, which consists of the application of various best practices including working only on one thing at a time, performing small steps, as well as making proper use of versioning and testing tools. However, the attempt to avoid unexpected recovery is both time-consuming and error-prone. On the one hand, it requires disproportionate effort to minimize the risk of unexpected situations. On the other hand, applying recommended practices selectively, which saves time, can hardly avoid recovery. In addition, the constant need for foresight and self-control has unfavorable implications. It is exhaustive and impedes creative problem solving. This work proposes to make recovery fast and easy and introduces corresponding support called CoExist. Such dedicated support turns situations of unanticipated recovery from tedious experiences into pleasant ones. It makes recovery fast and easy to accomplish, even if explicit commits are unavailable or tests have been ignored for some time. When mistakes and unexpected insights are no longer associated with tedious corrective actions, programmers are encouraged to change source code as a means to reason about it, as opposed to making changes only after structuring and evaluating them mentally. This work further reports on an implementation of the proposed tool support in the Squeak/Smalltalk development environment. The development of the tools has been accompanied by regular performance and usability tests. In addition, this work investigates whether the proposed tools affect programmers’ performance. In a controlled lab study, 22 participants improved the design of two different applications. Using a repeated measurement setup, the study examined the effect of providing CoExist on programming performance. The result of analyzing 88 hours of programming suggests that built-in recovery support as provided with CoExist positively has a positive effect on programming performance in explorative programming tasks.
When azobenzene-modified photosensitive polymer films are irradiated with light interference patterns, topographic variations in the film develop that follow the electric field vector distribution resulting in the formation of surface relief grating (SRG). The exact correspondence of the electric field vector orientation in interference pattern in relation to the presence of local topographic minima or maxima of SRG is in general difficult to determine. In my thesis, we have established a systematic procedure to accomplish the correlation between different interference patterns and the topography of SRG. For this, we devise a new setup combining an atomic force microscope and a two-beam interferometer (IIAFM). With this set-up, it is possible to track the topography change in-situ, while at the same time changing polarization and phase of the impinging interference pattern. To validate our results, we have compared two photosensitive materials named in short as PAZO and trimer. This is the first time that an absolute correspondence between the local distribution of electric field vectors of interference pattern and the local topography of the relief grating could be established exhaustively. In addition, using our IIAFM we found that for a certain polarization combination of two orthogonally polarized interfering beams namely SP (↕, ↔) interference pattern, the topography forms SRG with only half the period of the interference patterns. Exploiting this phenomenon we are able to fabricate surface relief structures below diffraction limit with characteristic features measuring only 140 nm, by using far field optics with a wavelength of 491 nm. We have also probed for the stresses induced during the polymer mass transport by placing an ultra-thin gold film on top (5–30 nm). During irradiation, the metal film not only deforms along with the SRG formation, but ruptures in regular and complex manner. The morphology of the cracks differs strongly depending on the electric field distribution in the interference pattern even when the magnitude and the kinetic of the strain are kept constant. This implies a complex local distribution of the opto-mechanical stress along the topography grating. The neutron reflectivity measurements of the metal/polymer interface indicate the penetration of metal layer within the polymer resulting in the formation of bonding layer that confirms the transduction of light induced stresses in the polymer layer to a metal film.
In Chapter 1 of the dissertation, the role of social networks is analyzed as an important determinant in the search behavior of the unemployed. Based on the hypothesis that the unemployed generate information on vacancies through their social network, search theory predicts that individuals with large social networks should experience an increased productivity of informal search, and reduce their search in formal channels. Due to the higher productivity of search, unemployed with a larger network are also expected to have a higher reservation wage than unemployed with a small network. The model-theoretic predictions are tested and confirmed empirically. It is found that the search behavior of unemployed is significantly affected by the presence of social contacts, with larger networks implying a stronger substitution away from formal search channels towards informal channels. The substitution is particularly pronounced for passive formal search methods, i.e., search methods that generate rather non-specific types of job offer information at low relative cost. We also find small but significant positive effects of an increase of the network size on the reservation wage. These results have important implications on the analysis of the job search monitoring or counseling measures that are usually targeted at formal search only. Chapter 2 of the dissertation addresses the labor market effects of vacancy information during the early stages of unemployment. The outcomes considered are the speed of exit from unemployment, the effects on the quality of employment and the short-and medium-term effects on active labor market program (ALMP) participation. It is found that vacancy information significantly increases the speed of entry into employment; at the same time the probability to participate in ALMP is significantly reduced. Whereas the long-term reduction in the ALMP arises in consequence of the earlier exit from unemployment, we also observe a short-run decrease for some labor market groups which suggest that caseworker use high and low intensity activation measures interchangeably which is clearly questionable from an efficiency point of view. For unemployed who find a job through vacancy information we observe a small negative effect on the weekly number of hours worked. In Chapter 3, the long-term effects of participation in ALMP are assessed for unemployed youth under 25 years of age. Complementary to the analysis in Chapter 2, the effects of participation in time- and cost-intensive measures of active labor market policies are examined. In particular we study the effects of job creation schemes, wage subsidies, short-and long-term training measures and measures to promote the participation in vocational training. The outcome variables of interest are the probability to be in regular employment, and participation in further education during the 60 months following program entry. The analysis shows that all programs, except job creation schemes have positive and long-term effects on the employment probability of youth. In the short-run only short-term training measures generate positive effects, as long-term training programs and wage subsidies exhibit significant locking-in'' effects. Measures to promote vocational training are found to increase the probability of attending education and training significantly, whereas all other programs have either no or a negative effect on training participation. Effect heterogeneity with respect to the pre-treatment level education shows that young people with higher pre-treatment educational levels benefit more from participation most programs. However, for longer-term wage subsidies we also find strong positive effects for young people with low initial education levels. The relative benefit of training measures is higher in West than in East Germany. In the evaluation studies of Chapters 2 and 3 semi-parametric balancing methods of Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) are used to eliminate the effects of counfounding factors that influence both the treatment participation as well as the outcome variable of interest, and to establish a causal relation between program participation and outcome differences. While PSM and IPW are intuitive and methodologically attractive as they do not require parametric assumptions, the practical implementation may become quite challenging due to their sensitivity to various data features. Given the importance of these methods in the evaluation literature, and the vast number of recent methodological contributions in this field, Chapter 4 aims to reduce the knowledge gap between the methodological and applied literature by summarizing new findings of the empirical and statistical literature and practical guidelines for future applied research. In contrast to previous publications this study does not only focus on the estimation of causal effects, but stresses that the balancing challenge can and should be discussed independent of question of causal identification of treatment effects on most empirical applications. Following a brief outline of the practical implementation steps required for PSM and IPW, these steps are presented in detail chronologically, outlining practical advice for each step. Subsequently, the topics of effect estimation, inference, sensitivity analysis and the combination with parametric estimation methods are discussed. Finally, new extensions of the methodology and avenues for future research are presented.
Nowadays, software systems are getting more and more complex. To tackle this challenge most diverse techniques, such as design patterns, service oriented architectures (SOA), software development processes, and model-driven engineering (MDE), are used to improve productivity, while time to market and quality of the products stay stable. Multiple of these techniques are used in parallel to profit from their benefits. While the use of sophisticated software development processes is standard, today, MDE is just adopted in practice. However, research has shown that the application of MDE is not always successful. It is not fully understood when advantages of MDE can be used and to what degree MDE can also be disadvantageous for productivity. Further, when combining different techniques that aim to affect the same factor (e.g. productivity) the question arises whether these techniques really complement each other or, in contrast, compensate their effects. Due to that, there is the concrete question how MDE and other techniques, such as software development process, are interrelated. Both aspects (advantages and disadvantages for productivity as well as the interrelation to other techniques) need to be understood to identify risks relating to the productivity impact of MDE. Before studying MDE's impact on productivity, it is necessary to investigate the range of validity that can be reached for the results. This includes two questions. First, there is the question whether MDE's impact on productivity is similar for all approaches of adopting MDE in practice. Second, there is the question whether MDE's impact on productivity for an approach of using MDE in practice remains stable over time. The answers for both questions are crucial for handling risks of MDE, but also for the design of future studies on MDE success. This thesis addresses these questions with the goal to support adoption of MDE in future. To enable a differentiated discussion about MDE, the term MDE setting'' is introduced. MDE setting refers to the applied technical setting, i.e. the employed manual and automated activities, artifacts, languages, and tools. An MDE setting's possible impact on productivity is studied with a focus on changeability and the interrelation to software development processes. This is done by introducing a taxonomy of changeability concerns that might be affected by an MDE setting. Further, three MDE traits are identified and it is studied for which manifestations of these MDE traits software development processes are impacted. To enable the assessment and evaluation of an MDE setting's impacts, the Software Manufacture Model language is introduced. This is a process modeling language that allows to reason about how relations between (modeling) artifacts (e.g. models or code files) change during application of manual or automated development activities. On that basis, risk analysis techniques are provided. These techniques allow identifying changeability risks and assessing the manifestations of the MDE traits (and with it an MDE setting's impact on software development processes). To address the range of validity, MDE settings from practice and their evolution histories were capture in context of this thesis. First, this data is used to show that MDE settings cover the whole spectrum concerning their impact on changeability or interrelation to software development processes. Neither it is seldom that MDE settings are neutral for processes nor is it seldom that MDE settings have impact on processes. Similarly, the impact on changeability differs relevantly. Second, a taxonomy of evolution of MDE settings is introduced. In that context it is discussed to what extent different types of changes on an MDE setting can influence this MDE setting's impact on changeability and the interrelation to processes. The category of structural evolution, which can change these characteristics of an MDE setting, is identified. The captured MDE settings from practice are used to show that structural evolution exists and is common. In addition, some examples of structural evolution steps are collected that actually led to a change in the characteristics of the respective MDE settings. Two implications are: First, the assessed diversity of MDE settings evaluates the need for the analysis techniques that shall be presented in this thesis. Second, evolution is one explanation for the diversity of MDE settings in practice. To summarize, this thesis studies the nature and evolution of MDE settings in practice. As a result support for the adoption of MDE settings is provided in form of techniques for the identification of risks relating to productivity impacts.
Previous studies on the acquisition of verb inflection in normally developing children have revealed an astonishing pattern: children use correctly inflected verbs in their own speech but fail to make use of verb inflections when comprehending sentences uttered by others. Thus, a three-year old might well be able to say something like ‘The cat sleeps on the bed’, but fails to understand that the same sentence, when uttered by another person, refers to only one sleeping cat but not more than one. The previous studies that have examined children's comprehension of verb inflections have employed a variant of a picture selection task in which the child was asked to explicitly indicate (via pointing) what semantic meaning she had inferred from the test sentence. Recent research on other linguistic structures, such as pronouns or focus particles, has indicated that earlier comprehension abilities can be found when methods are used that do not require an explicit reaction, like preferential looking tasks. This dissertation aimed to examine whether children are truly not able to understand the connection the the verb form and the meaning of the sentence subject until the age of five years or whether earlier comprehension can be found when a different measure, preferential looking, is used. Additionally, children's processing of subject-verb agreement violations was examined. The three experiments of this thesis that examined children's comprehension of verb inflections revealed the following: German-speaking three- to four-year old children looked more to a picture showing one actor when hearing a sentence with a singular inflected verb but only when their eye gaze was tracked and they did not have to perform a picture selection task. When they were asked to point to the matching picture, they performed at chance-level. This pattern indicates asymmetries in children's language performance even within the receptive modality. The fourth experiment examined sensitivity to subject-verb agreement violations and did not reveal evidence for sensitivity toward agreement violations in three- and four-year old children, but only found that children's looking patterns were influenced by the grammatical violations at the age of five. The results from these experiments are discussed in relation to the existence of a production-comprehension asymmetry in the use of verb inflections and children's underlying grammatical knowledge.
Donor-acceptor (D-A) copolymers have revolutionized the field of organic electronics over the last decade. Comprised of a electron rich and an electron deficient molecular unit, these copolymers facilitate the systematic modification of the material's optoelectronic properties. The ability to tune the optical band gap and to optimize the molecular frontier orbitals as well as the manifold of structural sites that enable chemical modifications has created a tremendous variety of copolymer structures. Today, these materials reach or even exceed the performance of amorphous inorganic semiconductors. Most impressively, the charge carrier mobility of D-A copolymers has been pushed to the technologically important value of 10 cm^{2}V^{-1}s^{-1}. Furthermore, owed to their enormous variability they are the material of choice for the donor component in organic solar cells, which have recently surpassed the efficiency threshold of 10%. Because of the great number of available D-A copolymers and due to their fast chemical evolution, there is a significant lack of understanding of the fundamental physical properties of these materials. Furthermore, the complex chemical and electronic structure of D-A copolymers in combination with their semi-crystalline morphology impede a straightforward identification of the microscopic origin of their superior performance. In this thesis, two aspects of prototype D-A copolymers were analysed. These are the investigation of electron transport in several copolymers and the application of low band gap copolymers as acceptor component in organic solar cells. In the first part, the investigation of a series of chemically modified fluorene-based copolymers is presented. The charge carrier mobility varies strongly between the different derivatives, although only moderate structural changes on the copolymers structure were made. Furthermore, rather unusual photocurrent transients were observed for one of the copolymers. Numerical simulations of the experimental results reveal that this behavior arises from a severe trapping of electrons in an exponential distribution of trap states. Based on the comparison of simulation and experiment, the general impact of charge carrier trapping on the shape of photo-CELIV and time-of-flight transients is discussed. In addition, the high performance naphthalenediimide (NDI)-based copolymer P(NDI2OD-T2) was characterized. It is shown that the copolymer posses one of the highest electron mobilities reported so far, which makes it attractive to be used as the electron accepting component in organic photovoltaic cells.\par Solar cells were prepared from two NDI-containing copolymers, blended with the hole transporting polymer P3HT. I demonstrate that the use of appropriate, high boiling point solvents can significantly increase the power conversion efficiency of these devices. Spectroscopic studies reveal that the pre-aggregation of the copolymers is suppressed in these solvents, which has a strong impact on the blend morphology. Finally, a systematic study of P3HT:P(NDI2OD-T2) blends is presented, which quantifies the processes that limit the efficiency of devices. The major loss channel for excited states was determined by transient and steady state spectroscopic investigations: the majority of initially generated electron-hole pairs is annihilated by an ultrafast geminate recombination process. Furthermore, exciton self-trapping in P(NDI2OD-T2) domains account for an additional reduction of the efficiency. The correlation of the photocurrent to microscopic morphology parameters was used to disclose the factors that limit the charge generation efficiency. Our results suggest that the orientation of the donor and acceptor crystallites relative to each other represents the main factor that determines the free charge carrier yield in this material system. This provides an explanation for the overall low efficiencies that are generally observed in all-polymer solar cells.
The contractile vacuole (CV) is an osmoregulatory organelle found exclusively in algae and protists. In addition to expelling excessive water out of the cell, it also expels ions and other metabolites and thereby contributes to the cell's metabolic homeostasis. The interest in the CV reaches beyond its immediate cellular roles. The CV's function is tightly related to basic cellular processes such as membrane dynamics and vesicle budding and fusion; several physiological processes in animals, such as synaptic neurotransmission and blood filtration in the kidney, are related to the CV's function; and several pathogens, such as the causative agents of sleeping sickness, possess CVs, which may serve as pharmacological targets. The green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has two CVs. They are the smallest known CVs in nature, and they remain relatively untouched in the CV-related literature. Many genes that have been shown to be related to the CV in other organisms have close homologues in C. reinhardtii. We attempted to silence some of these genes and observe the effect on the CV. One of our genes, VMP1, caused striking, severe phenotypes when silenced. Cells exhibited defective cytokinesis and aberrant morphologies. The CV, incidentally, remained unscathed. In addition, mutant cells showed some evidence of disrupted autophagy. Several important regulators of the cell cycle as well as autophagy were found to be underexpressed in the mutant. Lipidomic analysis revealed many meaningful changes between wild-type and mutant cells, reinforcing the compromised-autophagy observation. VMP1 is a singular protein, with homologues in numerous eukaryotic organisms (aside from fungi), but usually with no relatives in each particular genome. Since its first characterization in 2002 it has been associated with several cellular processes and functions, namely autophagy, programmed cell-death, secretion, cell adhesion, and organelle biogenesis. It has been implicated in several human diseases: pancreatitis, diabetes, and several types of cancer. Our results reiterate some of the observations in VMP1's six reported homologues, but, importantly, show for the first time an involvement of this protein in cell division. The mechanisms underlying this involvement in Chlamydomonas, as well as other key aspects, such as VMP1's subcellular localization and interaction partners, still await elucidation.
The objective and motivation behind this research is to provide applications with easy-to-use interfaces to communities of deaf and functionally illiterate users, which enables them to work without any human assistance. Although recent years have witnessed technological advancements, the availability of technology does not ensure accessibility to information and communication technologies (ICT). Extensive use of text from menus to document contents means that deaf or functionally illiterate can not access services implemented on most computer software. Consequently, most existing computer applications pose an accessibility barrier to those who are unable to read fluently. Online technologies intended for such groups should be developed in continuous partnership with primary users and include a thorough investigation into their limitations, requirements and usability barriers. In this research, I investigated existing tools in voice, web and other multimedia technologies to identify learning gaps and explored ways to enhance the information literacy for deaf and functionally illiterate users. I worked on the development of user-centered interfaces to increase the capabilities of deaf and low literacy users by enhancing lexical resources and by evaluating several multimedia interfaces for them. The interface of the platform-independent Italian Sign Language (LIS) Dictionary has been developed to enhance the lexical resources for deaf users. The Sign Language Dictionary accepts Italian lemmas as input and provides their representation in the Italian Sign Language as output. The Sign Language dictionary has 3082 signs as set of Avatar animations in which each sign is linked to a corresponding Italian lemma. I integrated the LIS lexical resources with MultiWordNet (MWN) database to form the first LIS MultiWordNet(LMWN). LMWN contains information about lexical relations between words, semantic relations between lexical concepts (synsets), correspondences between Italian and sign language lexical concepts and semantic fields (domains). The approach enhances the deaf users’ understanding of written Italian language and shows that a relatively small set of lexicon can cover a significant portion of MWN. Integration of LIS signs with MWN made it useful tool for computational linguistics and natural language processing. The rule-based translation process from written Italian text to LIS has been transformed into service-oriented system. The translation process is composed of various modules including parser, semantic interpreter, generator, and spatial allocation planner. This translation procedure has been implemented in the Java Application Building Center (jABC), which is a framework for extreme model driven design (XMDD). The XMDD approach focuses on bringing software development closer to conceptual design, so that the functionality of a software solution could be understood by someone who is unfamiliar with programming concepts. The transformation addresses the heterogeneity challenge and enhances the re-usability of the system. For enhancing the e-participation of functionally illiterate users, two detailed studies were conducted in the Republic of Rwanda. In the first study, the traditional (textual) interface was compared with the virtual character-based interactive interface. The study helped to identify usability barriers and users evaluated these interfaces according to three fundamental areas of usability, i.e. effectiveness, efficiency and satisfaction. In another study, we developed four different interfaces to analyze the usability and effects of online assistance (consistent help) for functionally illiterate users and compared different help modes including textual, vocal and virtual character on the performance of semi-literate users. In our newly designed interfaces the instructions were automatically translated in Swahili language. All the interfaces were evaluated on the basis of task accomplishment, time consumption, System Usability Scale (SUS) rating and number of times the help was acquired. The results show that the performance of semi-literate users improved significantly when using the online assistance. The dissertation thus introduces a new development approach in which virtual characters are used as additional support for barely literate or naturally challenged users. Such components enhanced the application utility by offering a variety of services like translating contents in local language, providing additional vocal information, and performing automatic translation from text to sign language. Obviously, there is no such thing as one design solution that fits for all in the underlying domain. Context sensitivity, literacy and mental abilities are key factors on which I concentrated and the results emphasize that computer interfaces must be based on a thoughtful definition of target groups, purposes and objectives.
Surface displacement at volcanic edifices is related to subsurface processes associated with magma movements, fluid transfers within the volcano edifice and gravity-driven deformation processes. Understanding of associated ground displacements is of importance for assessment of volcanic hazards. For example, volcanic unrest is often preceded by surface uplift, caused by magma intrusion and followed by subsidence, after the withdrawal of magma. Continuous monitoring of the surface displacement at volcanoes therefore might allow the forecasting of upcoming eruptions to some extent. In geophysics, the measured surface displacements allow the parameters of possible deformation sources to be estimated through analytical or numerical modeling. This is one way to improve the understanding of subsurface processes acting at volcanoes. Although the monitoring of volcanoes has significantly improved in the last decades (in terms of technical advancements and number of monitored volcanoes), the forecasting of volcanic eruptions remains puzzling. In this work I contribute towards the understanding of the subsurface processes at volcanoes and thus to the improvement of volcano eruption forecasting. I have investigated the displacement field of Llaima volcano in Chile and of Tendürek volcano in East Turkey by using synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR). Through modeling of the deformation sources with the extracted displacement data, it was possible to gain insights into potential subsurface processes occurring at these two volcanoes that had been barely studied before. The two volcanoes, although of very different origin, composition and geometry, both show a complexity of interacting deformation sources. At Llaima volcano, the InSAR technique was difficult to apply, due to the large decorrelation of the radar signal between the acquisition of images. I developed a model-based unwrapping scheme, which allows the production of reliable displacement maps at the volcano that I used for deformation source modeling. The modeling results show significant differences in pre- and post-eruptive magmatic deformation source parameters. Therefore, I conjecture that two magma chambers exist below Llaima volcano: a post-eruptive deep one and a shallow one possibly due to the pre-eruptive ascent of magma. Similar reservoir depths at Llaima have been confirmed by independent petrologic studies. These reservoirs are interpreted to be temporally coupled. At Tendürek volcano I have found long-term subsidence of the volcanic edifice, which can be described by a large, magmatic, sill-like source that is subject to cooling contraction. The displacement data in conjunction with high-resolution optical images, however, reveal arcuate fractures at the eastern and western flank of the volcano. These are most likely the surface expressions of concentric ring-faults around the volcanic edifice that show low magnitudes of slip over a long time. This might be an alternative mechanism for the development of large caldera structures, which are so far assumed to be generated during large catastrophic collapse events. To investigate the potential subsurface geometry and relation of the two proposed interacting sources at Tendürek, a sill-like magmatic source and ring-faults, I have performed a more sophisticated numerical modeling approach. The optimum source geometries show, that the size of the sill-like source was overestimated in the simple models and that it is difficult to determine the dip angle of the ring-faults with surface displacement data only. However, considering physical and geological criteria a combination of outward-dipping reverse faults in the west and inward-dipping normal faults in the east seem to be the most likely. Consequently, the underground structure at the Tendürek volcano consists of a small, sill-like, contracting, magmatic source below the western summit crater that causes a trapdoor-like faulting along the ring-faults around the volcanic edifice. Therefore, the magmatic source and the ring-faults are also interpreted to be temporally coupled. In addition, a method for data reduction has been improved. The modeling of subsurface deformation sources requires only a relatively small number of well distributed InSAR observations at the earth’s surface. Satellite radar images, however, consist of several millions of these observations. Therefore, the large amount of data needs to be reduced by several orders of magnitude for source modeling, to save computation time and increase model flexibility. I have introduced a model-based subsampling approach in particular for heterogeneously-distributed observations. It allows a fast calculation of the data error variance-covariance matrix, also supports the modeling of time dependent displacement data and is, therefore, an alternative to existing methods.
Today, it is well known that galaxies like the Milky Way consist not only of stars but also of gas and dust. The galactic halo, a sphere of gas that surrounds the stellar disk of a galaxy, is especially interesting. It provides a wealth of information about in and outflowing gaseous material towards and away from galaxies and their hierarchical evolution. For the Milky Way, the so-called high-velocity clouds (HVCs), fast moving neutral gas complexes in the halo that can be traced by absorption-line measurements, are believed to play a crucial role in the overall matter cycle in our Galaxy. Over the last decades, the properties of these halo structures and their connection to the local circumgalactic and intergalactic medium (CGM and IGM, respectively) have been investigated in great detail by many different groups. So far it remains unclear, however, to what extent the results of these studies can be transferred to other galaxies in the local Universe. In this thesis, we study the absorption properties of Galactic HVCs and compare the HVC absorption characteristics with those of intervening QSO absorption-line systems at low redshift. The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of the spatial extent and physical conditions of gaseous galaxy halos in the local Universe. In the first part of the thesis we use HST /STIS ultraviolet spectra of more than 40 extragalactic background sources to statistically analyze the absorption properties of the HVCs in the Galactic halo. We determine fundamental absorption line parameters including covering fractions of different weakly/intermediately/highly ionized metals with a particular focus on SiII and MgII. Due to the similarity in the ionization properties of SiII and MgII, we are able to estimate the contribution of HVC-like halo structures to the cross section of intervening strong MgII absorbers at z = 0. Our study implies that only the most massive HVCs would be regarded as strong MgII absorbers, if the Milky Way halo would be seen as a QSO absorption line system from an exterior vantage point. Combining the observed absorption-cross section of Galactic HVCs with the well-known number density of intervening strong MgII absorbers at z = 0, we conclude that the contribution of infalling gas clouds (i.e., HVC analogs) in the halos of Milky Way-type galaxies to the cross section of strong MgII absorbers is 34%. This result indicates that only about one third of the strong MgII absorption can be associated with HVC analogs around other galaxies, while the majority of the strong MgII systems possibly is related to galaxy outflows and winds. The second part of this thesis focuses on the properties of intervening metal absorbers at low redshift. The analysis of the frequency and physical conditions of intervening metal systems in QSO spectra and their relation to nearby galaxies offers new insights into the typical conditions of gaseous galaxy halos. One major aspect in our study was to regard intervening metal systems as possible HVC analogs. We perform a detailed analysis of absorption line properties and line statistics for 57 metal absorbers along 78 QSO sightlines using newly-obtained ultraviolet spectra obtained with HST /COS. We find clear evidence for bimodal distribution in the HI column density in the absorbers, a trend that we interpret as sign for two different classes of absorption systems (with HVC analogs at the high-column density end). With the help of the strong transitions of SiII λ1260, SiIII λ1206, and CIII λ977 we have set up Cloudy photoionization models to estimate the local ionization conditions, gas densities, and metallicities. We find that the intervening absorption systems studied by us have, on average, similar physical conditions as Galactic HVC absorbers, providing evidence that many of them represent HVC analogs in the vicinity of other galaxies. We therefore determine typical halo sizes for SiII, SiIII, and CIII for L = 0.01L∗ and L = 0.05L∗ galaxies. Based on the covering fractions of the different ions in the Galactic halo, we find that, for example, the typical halo size for SiIII is ∼ 160 kpc for L = 0.05L∗ galaxies. We test the plausibility of this result by searching for known galaxies close to the QSO sightlines and at similar redshifts as the absorbers. We find that more than 34% of the measured SiIII absorbers have galaxies associated with them, with the majority of the absorbers indeed being at impact parameters ρ ≤160 kpc.
Organizations try to gain competitive advantages, and to increase customer satisfaction. To ensure the quality and efficiency of their business processes, they perform business process management. An important part of process management that happens on the daily operational level is process controlling. A prerequisite of controlling is process monitoring, i.e., keeping track of the performed activities in running process instances. Only by process monitoring can business analysts detect delays and react to deviations from the expected or guaranteed performance of a process instance. To enable monitoring, process events need to be collected from the process environment. When a business process is orchestrated by a process execution engine, monitoring is available for all orchestrated process activities. Many business processes, however, do not lend themselves to automatic orchestration, e.g., because of required freedom of action. This situation is often encountered in hospitals, where most business processes are manually enacted. Hence, in practice it is often inefficient or infeasible to document and monitor every process activity. Additionally, manual process execution and documentation is prone to errors, e.g., documentation of activities can be forgotten. Thus, organizations face the challenge of process events that occur, but are not observed by the monitoring environment. These unobserved process events can serve as basis for operational process decisions, even without exact knowledge of when they happened or when they will happen. An exemplary decision is whether to invest more resources to manage timely completion of a case, anticipating that the process end event will occur too late. This thesis offers means to reason about unobserved process events in a probabilistic way. We address decisive questions of process managers (e.g., "when will the case be finished?", or "when did we perform the activity that we forgot to document?") in this thesis. As main contribution, we introduce an advanced probabilistic model to business process management that is based on a stochastic variant of Petri nets. We present a holistic approach to use the model effectively along the business process lifecycle. Therefore, we provide techniques to discover such models from historical observations, to predict the termination time of processes, and to ensure quality by missing data management. We propose mechanisms to optimize configuration for monitoring and prediction, i.e., to offer guidance in selecting important activities to monitor. An implementation is provided as a proof of concept. For evaluation, we compare the accuracy of the approach with that of state-of-the-art approaches using real process data of a hospital. Additionally, we show its more general applicability in other domains by applying the approach on process data from logistics and finance.
Automated location of seismic events is a very important task in microseismic monitoring operations as well for local and regional seismic monitoring. Since microseismic records are generally characterised by low signal-to-noise ratio, such methods are requested to be noise robust and sufficiently accurate. Most of the standard automated location routines are based on the automated picking, identification and association of the first arrivals of P and S waves and on the minimization of the residuals between theoretical and observed arrival times of the considered seismic phases. Although current methods can accurately pick P onsets, the automatic picking of the S onset is still problematic, especially when the P coda overlaps the S wave onset. In this thesis I developed a picking free automated method based on the Short-Term-Average/Long-Term-Average (STA/LTA) traces at different stations as observed data. I used the STA/LTA of several characteristic functions in order to increase the sensitiveness to the P wave and the S waves. For the P phases we use the STA/LTA traces of the vertical energy function, while for the S phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of the horizontal energy trace and then a more optimized characteristic function which is obtained using the principal component analysis technique. The orientation of the horizontal components can be retrieved by robust and linear approach of waveform comparison between stations within a network using seismic sources outside the network (chapter 2). To locate the seismic event, we scan the space of possible hypocentral locations and origin times, and stack the STA/LTA traces along the theoretical arrival time surface for both P and S phases. Iterating this procedure on a three-dimensional grid we retrieve a multidimensional matrix whose absolute maximum corresponds to the spatial and temporal coordinates of the seismic event. Location uncertainties are then estimated by perturbing the STA/LTA parameters (i.e the length of both long and short time windows) and relocating each event several times. In order to test the location method I firstly applied it to a set of 200 synthetic events. Then we applied it to two different real datasets. A first one related to mining induced microseismicity in a coal mine in the northern Germany (chapter 3). In this case we successfully located 391 microseismic event with magnitude range between 0.5 and 2.0 Ml. To further validate the location method I compared the retrieved locations with those obtained by manual picking procedure. The second dataset consist in a pilot application performed in the Campania-Lucania region (southern Italy) using a 33 stations seismic network (Irpinia Seismic Network) with an aperture of about 150 km (chapter 4). We located 196 crustal earthquakes (depth < 20 km) with magnitude range 1.1 < Ml < 2.7. A subset of these locations were compared with accurate locations retrieved by a manual location procedure based on the use of a double difference technique. In both cases results indicate good agreement with manual locations. Moreover, the waveform stacking location method results noise robust and performs better than classical location methods based on the automatic picking of the P and S waves first arrivals.
World market governance
(2014)
Democratic capitalism or liberal democracy, as the successful marriage of convenience between market liberalism and democracy sometimes is called, is in trouble. The market economy system has become global and there is a growing mismatch with the territoriality of the nation-states. The functional global networks and inter-governmental order can no longer keep pace with the rapid development of the global market economy and regulatory capture is all too common. Concepts like de-globalization, self-regulation, and global government are floated in the debate. The alternatives are analysed and found to be improper, inadequate or plainly impossible. The proposed route is instead to accept that the global market economy has developed into an independent fundamental societal system that needs its own governance. The suggestion is World Market Governance based on the Rule of Law in order to shape the fitness environment for the global market economy and strengthen the nation-states so that they can regain the sovereignty to decide upon the social and cultural conditions in each country. Elements in the proposed Rule of Law are international legislation decided by an Assembly supported by a Council, and an independent Judiciary. Existing international organisations would function as executors. The need for broad sustained demand for regulations in the common interest is identified.