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Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.
In this study we compared the phylogeographic patterns of two Rusa species, Rusa unicolor and Rusa timorensis, in order to understand what drove and maintained differentiation between these two geographically and genetically close species and investigated the route of introduction of individuals to the islands outside of the Sunda Shelf. We analyzed full mitogenomes from 56 archival samples from the distribution areas of the two species and 18 microsatellite loci in a subset of 16 individuals to generate the phylogeographic patterns of both species. Bayesian inference with fossil calibration was used to estimate the age of each species and major divergence events. Our results indicated that the split between the two species took place during the Pleistocene, similar to 1.8Mya, possibly driven by adaptations of R. timorensis to the drier climate found on Java compared to the other islands of Sundaland. Although both markers identified two well-differentiated clades, there was a largely discrepant pattern between mitochondrial and nuclear markers. While nDNA separated the individuals into the two species, largely in agreement with their museum label, mtDNA revealed that all R. timorensis sampled to the east of the Sunda shelf carried haplotypes from R. unicolor and one Rusa unicolor from South Sumatra carried a R. timorensis haplotype. Our results show that hybridization occurred between these two sister species in Sundaland during the Late Pleistocene and resulted in human-mediated introduction of hybrid descendants in all islands outside Sundaland.
In the current work, the microstructure, hydrogen permeability, and properties of chromium nitride (CrNx) thin films deposited on the Inconel 718 superalloy using direct current reactive sputtering are investigated. The influence of the substrate bias voltage on the crystal structure, mechanical, and tribological properties before and after hydrogen exposure was studied. It was found that increasing the substrate bias voltage leads to densification of the coating. X-ray diffraction (XRD) results reveal a change from mixed fcc-CrN + hcp-Cr2N to the approximately stoichiometric hcp-Cr2N phase with increasing substrate bias confirmed by wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (WDS). The texture coefficients of (113), (110), and (111) planes vary significantly with increasing substrate bias voltage. The hydrogen permeability was measured by gas-phase hydrogenation. The CrN coating deposited at 60 V with mixed c-CrN and (113) textured hcp-Cr2N phases exhibits the lowest hydrogen absorption at 873 K. It is suggested that the crystal orientation is only one parameter influencing the permeation resistance of the CrNx coating together with the film structure, the presence of mixing phases, and the packing density of the structure. After hydrogenation, the hardness increased for all coatings, which could be related to the formation of a Cr2O3 oxide film on the surface, as well as the defect formation after hydrogen loading. Tribological tests reveal that hydrogenation leads to a decrease of the friction coefficient by up to 40%. The lowest value of 0.25 +/- 0.02 was reached for the CrNx coating deposited at 60 V after hydrogenation.
This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of −5 to −17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.
It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
Most large-scale hydrologic models fall short in reproducing groundwater head dynamics and simulating transport process due to their oversimplified representation of groundwater flow. In this study, we aim to extend the applicability of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to subsurface hydrology by coupling it with the porous media simulator OpenGeoSys (OGS). The two models are one-way coupled through model interfaces GIS2FEM and RIV2FEM, by which the grid-based fluxes of groundwater recharge and the river-groundwater exchange generated by mHM are converted to fixed-flux boundary conditions of the groundwater model OGS. Specifically, the grid-based vertical reservoirs in mHM are completely preserved for the estimation of land-surface fluxes, while OGS acts as a plug-in to the original mHM modeling framework for groundwater flow and transport modeling. The applicability of the coupled model (mHM-OGS v1.0) is evaluated by a case study in the central European mesoscale river basin - Nagelstedt. Different time steps, i.e., daily in mHM and monthly in OGS, are used to account for fast surface flow and slow groundwater flow. Model calibration is conducted following a two-step procedure using discharge for mHM and long-term mean of groundwater head measurements for OGS. Based on the model summary statistics, namely the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the interquartile range error (QRE), the coupled model is able to satisfactorily represent the dynamics of discharge and groundwater heads at several locations across the study basin. Our exemplary calculations show that the one-way coupled model can take advantage of the spatially explicit modeling capabilities of surface and groundwater hydrologic models and provide an adequate representation of the spatiotemporal behaviors of groundwater storage and heads, thus making it a valuable tool for addressing water resources and management problems.
Phase response curves are important for analysis and modeling of oscillatory dynamics in various applications, particularly in neuroscience. Standard experimental technique for determining them requires isolation of the system and application of a specifically designed input. However, isolation is not always feasible and we are compelled to observe the system in its natural environment under free-running conditions. To that end we propose an approach relying only on passive observations of the system and its input. We illustrate it with simulation results of an oscillator driven by a stochastic force.
Phase response curves are important for analysis and modeling of oscillatory dynamics in various applications, particularly in neuroscience. Standard experimental technique for determining them requires isolation of the system and application of a specifically designed input. However, isolation is not always feasible and we are compelled to observe the system in its natural environment under free-running conditions. To that end we propose an approach relying only on passive observations of the system and its input. We illustrate it with simulation results of an oscillator driven by a stochastic force.
Ecological and physiological factors lead to different contamination patterns in individual marine mammals. The objective of the present study was to assess whether variations in contamination profiles are indicative of social structures of young male sperm whales as they might reflect a variation in feeding preferences and/or in utilized feeding grounds. We used a total of 61 variables associated with organic compounds and trace element concentrations measured in muscle, liver, kidney and blubber gained from 24 sperm whales that stranded in the North Sea in January and February 2016. Combining contaminant and genetic data, there is evidence for at least two cohorts with different origin among these stranded sperm whales; one from the Canary Island region and one from the northern part of the Atlantic. While genetic data unravel relatedness and kinship, contamination data integrate over areas, where animals occured during their lifetime. Especially in long-lived animals with a large migratory potential, as sperm whales, contamination data may carry highly relevant information about aggregation through time and space.
Ecological and physiological factors lead to different contamination patterns in individual marine mammals. The objective of the present study was to assess whether variations in contamination profiles are indicative of social structures of young male sperm whales as they might reflect a variation in feeding preferences and/or in utilized feeding grounds. We used a total of 61 variables associated with organic compounds and trace element concentrations measured in muscle, liver, kidney and blubber gained from 24 sperm whales that stranded in the North Sea in January and February 2016. Combining contaminant and genetic data, there is evidence for at least two cohorts with different origin among these stranded sperm whales; one from the Canary Island region and one from the northern part of the Atlantic. While genetic data unravel relatedness and kinship, contamination data integrate over areas, where animals occured during their lifetime. Especially in long-lived animals with a large migratory potential, as sperm whales, contamination data may carry highly relevant information about aggregation through time and space.