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Die Rote Gefahr
(2017)
Natural hazards can have serious societal and economic impacts. Worldwide, around one third of economic losses due to natural hazards are attributable to floods. The majority of natural hazards are triggered by weather-related extremes such as heavy precipitation, rapid snow melt, or extreme temperatures. Some of them, and in particular floods, are expected to further increase in terms of frequency and/or intensity in the coming decades due to the impacts of climate change. In this context, the European Alps areas are constantly disclosed as being particularly sensitive.
In order to enhance the resilience of societies to natural hazards, risk assessments are substantial as they can deliver comprehensive risk information to be used as a basis for effective and sustainable decision-making in natural hazards management. So far, current assessment approaches mostly focus on single societal or economic sectors – e.g. flood damage models largely concentrate on private-sector housing – and other important sectors, such as the transport infrastructure sector, are widely neglected. However, transport infrastructure considerably contributes to economic and societal welfare, e.g. by ensuring mobility of people and goods. In Austria, for example, the national railway network is essential for the European transit of passengers and freights as well as for the development of the complex Alpine topography. Moreover, a number of recent experiences show that railway infrastructure and transportation is highly vulnerable to natural hazards. As a consequence, the Austrian Federal Railways had to cope with economic losses on the scale of several million euros as a result of flooding and other alpine hazards.
The motivation of this thesis is to contribute to filling the gap of knowledge about damage to railway infrastructure caused by natural hazards by providing new risk information for actors and stakeholders involved in the risk management of railway transportation. Hence, in order to support the decision-making towards a more effective and sustainable risk management, the following two shortcomings in natural risks research are approached: i) the lack of dedicated models to estimate flood damage to railway infrastructure, and ii) the scarcity of insights into possible climate change impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events with focus on future implications for railway transportation in Austria.
With regard to flood impacts to railway infrastructure, the empirically derived damage model Railway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) proved expedient to reliably estimate both structural flood damage at exposed track sections of the Northern Railway and resulting repair cost. The results show that the RAIL model is capable of identifying flood risk hot spots along the railway network and, thus, facilitates the targeted planning and implementation of (technical) risk reduction measures. However, the findings of this study also show that the development and validation of flood damage models for railway infrastructure is generally constrained by the continuing lack of detailed event and damage data.
In order to provide flood risk information on the large scale to support strategic flood risk management, the RAIL model was applied for the Austrian Mur River catchment using three different hydraulic scenarios as input as well as considering an increased risk aversion of the railway operator. Results indicate that the model is able to deliver comprehensive risk information also on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that the aspect of risk aversion can have marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.
Looking at the results of the investigation on future frequencies of extreme weather events jeopardizing railway infrastructure and transportation in Austria, it appears that an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves has to be expected, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of extremes are rather sensitive to changes of the underlying thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and — if needed — to adapt the thresholds that are used to detect and forecast meteorological extremes. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a prerequisite.
Overall, the findings of the research presented in this thesis agree on the necessity to improve event and damage documentation procedures in order to enable the acquisition of comprehensive and reliable risk information via risk assessments and, thus, support strategic natural hazards management of railway infrastructure and transportation.
Physikalische Hydrogele gewinnen derzeit als Zellsubstrate zunehmend an Interesse, da Viskoelastizität oder Stressrelaxation ein bedeutender Parameter in der Mechanotransduktion ist, der bisher vernachlässigt wurde. In dieser Arbeit wurden multi-funktionelle Polyurethane entworfen, die über einen neuartigen Gelierungsmechanismus physikalische Hydrogele bilden. In Wasser bilden die anionischen Polyurethane spontan Aggregate, welche durch elektrostatische Abstoßung in Lösung gehalten werden. Eine schnelle Gelierung kann von hier aus durch Ladungsabschirmung erreicht werden, wodurch die Aggregation voranschreitet und ein Netzwerk ausgebildet wird. Dies kann durch die Zugabe von verschiedenen Säuren oder Salzen geschehen, sodass sowohl saure (pH 4 - 5) als auch pH-neutrale Hydrogele erhalten werden können. Während konventionelle Hydrogele auf Polyurethan-Basis in der Regel durch toxische isocyanat-haltige Präpolymere hergestellt werden, eignet sich der hier beschriebene physikalische Gelierungsmechanismus für in situ Anwendungen in sensitiven Umgebungen. Sowohl Härte als auch Stressrelaxation der Hydrogele können unabhängig voneinander über einen breiten Bereich eingestellt werden. Darüberhinaus zeichnen sich die Hydrogele durch exzellente Stressregeneration aus.
The humid tropics are the region with the highest rate of land-cover change worldwide. Especially prevalent is the deforestation of old-growth tropical forests to create space for cattle pastures and soybean fields.
The regional water cycle is influenced by vegetation cover in various ways. Especially evapotranspiration considerably contributes to water vapor content in the lower atmosphere. Besides active transpiration by plants, evaporation from wetted plant surfaces further known as interception loss is an important supply of water vapor. Changes in interception loss due to change in land cover and the related consequences on the regional water cycle in the humid tropics of Latin America are the research focus of my thesis. (1) In an experimental setup I assess differences in interception loss between an old-growth tropical forest and a soybean plantation. (2) In a modeling study, I examine interception losses of these two vegetation types compared to a younger secondary forest with the use of the Gash interception model, including an uncertainty analysis for the estimation of the necessary model parameters. (3) Studying the water balance of a 192-km² catchment I disentangle the influences of changes in land cover and climatic factors on interception loss.
The three different research sites in my thesis represent a currently typical spectrum for land-cover changes in Latin America. In the first example I study the consequences of deforestation of transitional forest, which forms the transition from the Brazilian tree savanna (cerrado) to tropical rain forest, for the establishment of soybean fields in the southern Amazon basin. The second study site is a young secondary forest within the “Agua Salud” project area in Panama as an example of reforestation of former pastures. The third study site is the Cirí Grande river catchment which comprises a mixture of young and old forests as well as pastures, which is typical for the southern sub-catchments of the Panama Canal.
The experimental approach consists of the indirect estimation of interception loss by measuring throughfall and stem flow. For the first experimental study I measured throughfall as well as stem flow manually. Measurements of the leaf area index of the two land covers do not show distinct differences; hence it could not serve as an explanation for the differences in the measured interception loss. The considerably higher interception loss at the soybean field is attributed to a possible underestimation of stemflow but also to the stronger ventilation within the well-structured plant rows causing higher evaporation rates. This situation is valid only for two months of the rainy season, when soybean plants are fully developed. In the annual balance evapotranspiration at the soybean site is clearly less than at the forest site, accelerating the development of fast runoff components and consequently discharge. In the medium term, a reduction of water availability in the study area can be expected.
For the modeling study, throughfall in a young secondary forest is sampled automatically. The resulting temporally high-resolution dataset allows the distinction between different precipitation and interception events. The core of this study is the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the Gash interception model parameters and the consequences for its results. Canopy storage capacity plays a key role for the model and parameter uncertainty. With increasing storage capacity uncertainty in parameter delineation also increases. Evaporation rate as the driving component of the interception process incorporates in this context the largest parameter uncertainty. Depending on the selected method for parameter estimation, parameter values may vary tremendously.
In the third study, I analyze the influence of interception loss on the water balance of the Cirí Grande catchment, incorporating the interlinked effects of temperature, precipitation and changes of the land use mosaic using the SWAT (soil water assessment tool) model. Constructing several land-cover scenarios I assess their influence on the catchment’s discharge. The results show that land-cover change exerts only a small influence on annual discharge in the Cirí Grande catchment whereas an increase in temperature markedly influences evapotranspiration. The temperature-induced larger transpiration and interception loss balances the simultaneous increase in annual precipitation, such that the resulting changes in annual discharge are negligible.
The results of the three studies show the considerable effect of land cover on interception. However, the magnitude of this effect can be masked by changes in local conditions, especially by an increase in temperature. Hence, the results cannot be transferred easily between the different study sites. For modeling purposes, this means that measurements of vegetation characteristics as well as interception loss at the respective sites are indispensable.
Rapidly uplifting coastlines are frequently associated with convergent tectonic boundaries, like subduction zones, which are repeatedly breached by giant megathrust earthquakes. The coastal relief along tectonically active realms is shaped by the effect of sea-level variations and heterogeneous patterns of permanent tectonic deformation, which are accumulated through several cycles of megathrust earthquakes. However, the correlation between earthquake deformation patterns and the sustained long-term segmentation of forearcs, particularly in Chile, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, the methods used to estimate permanent deformation from geomorphic markers, like marine terraces, have remained qualitative and are based on unrepeatable methods. This contrasts with the increasing resolution of digital elevation models, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and high-resolution bathymetric surveys.
Throughout this thesis I study permanent deformation in a holistic manner: from the methods to assess deformation rates, to the processes involved in its accumulation. My research focuses particularly on two aspects: Developing methodologies to assess permanent deformation using marine terraces, and comparing permanent deformation with seismic cycle deformation patterns under different spatial scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Two methods are developed to determine deformation rates from wave-built and wave-cut terraces respectively. I selected an archetypal example of a wave-built terrace at Santa Maria Island studying its stratigraphy and recognizing sequences of reoccupation events tied with eleven radiocarbon sample ages (14C ages). I developed a method to link patterns of reoccupation with sea-level proxies by iterating relative sea level curves for a range of uplift rates. I find the best fit between relative sea-level and the stratigraphic patterns for an uplift rate of 1.5 +- 0.3 m/ka.
A Graphical User Interface named TerraceM® was developed in Matlab®. This novel software tool determines shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces under different geomorphic scenarios. To validate the methods, I select test sites in areas of available high-resolution LiDAR topography along the Maule earthquake rupture zone and in California, USA. The software allows determining the 3D location of the shoreline angle, which is a proxy for the estimation of permanent deformation rates. The method is based on linear interpolations to define the paleo platform and cliff on swath profiles. The shoreline angle is then located by intersecting these interpolations. The
accuracy and precision of TerraceM® was tested by comparing its results with previous assessments, and through an experiment with students in a computer lab setting at the University
of Potsdam.
I combined the methods developed to analyze wave-built and wave-cut terraces to assess regional patterns of permanent deformation along the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture. Wave-built terraces are tied using 12 Infra Red Stimulated luminescence ages (IRSL ages) and shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces are estimated from 170 aligned swath profiles. The comparison of coseismic slip, interseismic coupling, and permanent deformation, leads to three areas of high permanent uplift, terrace warping, and sharp fault offsets. These three areas correlate with regions of high slip and low coupling, as well as with the spatial limit of at least eight historical megathrust ruptures (M8-9.5). I propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust, which result in discrete boundaries for the propagation of mega earthquakes.
To explore the application of geomorphic markers and quantitative morphology in offshore areas I performed a local study of patterns of permanent deformation inferred from hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines at the Arauco Bay, at the southern part of the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture zone. A multidisciplinary approach, including morphometry, sedimentology, paleontology, 3D morphoscopy, and a landscape Evolution Model is used to recognize, map, and assess local rates and patterns of permanent deformation in submarine environments. Permanent deformation patterns are then reproduced using elastic models to assess deformation rates of an active submarine splay fault defined as Santa Maria Fault System. The best fit suggests a reverse structure with a slip rate of 3.7 m/ka for the last 30 ka. The register of land level changes during the earthquake cycle at Santa Maria Island suggest that most of the deformation may be accrued through splay fault reactivation during mega earthquakes, like the (2010) Maule event. Considering a recurrence time of 150 to 200 years, as determined from historical and geological observations, slip between 0.3 and 0.7 m per event would be required to account for the 3.7 m/ka millennial slip rate. However, if the SMFS slips only every ~1000 years, representing a few megathrust earthquakes, then a slip of ~3.5 m per event would be required to account for the long- term rate. Such event would be equivalent to a magnitude ~6.7 earthquake capable to generate a local tsunami.
The results of this thesis provide novel and fundamental information regarding the amount of permanent deformation accrued in the crust, and the mechanisms responsible for this accumulation at millennial time-scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Furthermore, the results of this thesis highlight the application of quantitative geomorphology and the use of repeatable methods to determine permanent deformation, improve the accuracy of marine terrace assessments, and estimates of vertical deformation rates in tectonically active coastal areas. This is vital information for adequate coastal-hazard assessments and to anticipate realistic earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Seit der Einführung von Antibiotika in die medizinische Behandlung von bakteriellen Infektionskrankheiten existiert ein Wettlauf zwischen der Evolution von Bakterienresistenzen und der Entwicklung wirksamer Antibiotika. Während bis in die 80er Jahre verstärkt an neuen Antibiotika geforscht wurde, gewinnen multiresistente Keime heute zunehmend die Oberhand. Um einzelne Pathogene erfolgreich nachzuweisen und zu bekämpfen, ist ein grundlegendes Wissen über den Erreger unumgänglich. Bakterielle Proteine, die bei einer Infektion vorrangig vom Immunsystem prozessiert und präsentiert werden, könnten für die Entwicklung von Impfstoffen oder gezielten Therapeutika nützlich sein. Auch für die Diagnostik wären diese immundominanten Proteine interessant. Allerdings herrscht ein Mangel an Wissen über spezifische Antigene vieler pathogener Bakterien, die eine eindeutige Diagnostik eines einzelnen Erregers erlauben würden.
Daher wurden in dieser Arbeit vier verschiedene Humanpathogene mittels Phage Display untersucht: Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Neisseria meningitidis, Borrelia burgdorferi und Clostridium difficile. Hierfür wurden aus der genomischen DNA der vier Erreger Bibliotheken konstruiert und durch wiederholte Selektion und Amplifikation, dem sogenannten Panning, immunogene Proteine isoliert. Für alle Erreger bis auf C. difficile wurden immunogene Proteine aus den jeweiligen Bibliotheken isoliert. Die identifizierten Proteine von N. meningitidis und B. burgdorferi waren größtenteils bekannt, konnten aber in dieser Arbeit durch Phage Display verifiziert werden. Für N. gonorrhoeae wurden 21 potentiell immunogene Oligopeptide isoliert, von denen sechs Proteine als neue zuvor unbeschriebene Proteine mit immunogenem Charakter identifiziert wurden. Von den Phagen-präsentierten Oligopeptide der 21 immunogenen Proteine wurden Epitopmappings mit verschiedenen polyklonalen Antikörpern durchgeführt, um immunogene Bereiche näher zu identifizieren und zu charakterisieren. Bei zehn Proteinen wurden lineare Epitope eindeutig mit drei polyklonalen Antikörpern identifiziert, von fünf weiteren Proteinen waren Epitope mit mindestens einem Antikörper detektierbar. Für eine weitere Charakterisierung der ermittelten Epitope wurden Alaninscans durchgeführt, die eine detaillierte Auskunft über kritische Aminosäuren für die Bindung des Antikörpers an das Epitop geben.
Ausgehend von dem neu identifizierten Protein mit immunogenem Charakter NGO1634 wurden 26 weitere Proteine aufgrund ihrer funktionellen Ähnlichkeit ausgewählt und mithilfe bioinformatischer Analysen auf ihre Eignung zur Entwicklung einer diagnostischen Anwendung analysiert. Durch Ausschluss der meisten Proteine aufgrund ihrer Lokalisation, Membrantopologie oder unspezifischen Proteinsequenz wurden scFv-Antikörper gegen acht Proteine mittels Phage Display generiert und anschließend als scFv-Fc-Fusionsantikörper produziert und charakterisiert.
Die hier identifizierten Proteine und linearen Epitope könnten einen Ansatzpunkt für die Entwicklung einer diagnostischen oder therapeutischen Anwendung bieten. Lineare Epitopsequenzen werden häufig für die Impfstoffentwicklung eingesetzt, sodass vor allem die in dieser Arbeit bestimmten Epitope von Membranproteinen interessante Kandidaten für weitere Untersuchungen in diese Richtung sind. Durch weitere Untersuchungen könnten möglicherweise unbekannte Virulenzfaktoren entdeckt werden, deren Inhibierung einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf Infektionen haben könnten.
Arbeit vor Rente
(2017)
Schon vor der Staatsgründung legte die SED die Grundlagen für ein neues System der sozialen Sicherung und wandelte den traditionellen Wohlfahrtsstaat in einen "workfarestate" um. Carolin Wiethoff richtet den Blick auf die Auswirkungen dieser Politik auf die Menschen, die aufgrund einer Erwerbsminderung nicht mehr oder nur noch eingeschränkt arbeiten konnten. Ihre Studie untersucht über einen Zeitraum von 40 Jahren hinweg die soziale Sicherung bei Invalidität und sozialpolitische Initiativen zur beruflichen Rehabilitation. Die beiden Bereiche waren eng miteinander verbunden, weil es den politisch Verantwortlichen in der DDR stets darum ging, möglichst viele Bürger in den Arbeitsprozess zu integrieren und eine dauerhafte Invalidisierung zu vermeiden. Im Mittelpunkt der Untersuchung steht neben dem stellenweise konfliktreichen Zusammenspiel der einzelnen Akteure im Partei-und Staatsapparat die betriebliche Praxis, denn in der DDR war Sozialpolitik besonders stark auf die Betriebe zentriert. Anhand des Eisenhüttenkombinates Ost, einem Schwerpunktbetrieb der DDR, werden die Organisation des betrieblichen Gesundheits- und Sozialwesens und Schwierigkeiten bei der Umsetzung staatlicher Vorgaben deutlich.