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Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variability in Flood Damage Processes
(2019)
Flood damage processes are complex and vary between events and regions. State-of-the-art flood loss models are often developed on the basis of empirical damage data from specific case studies and do not perform well when spatially and temporally transferred. This is due to the fact that such localized models often cover only a small set of possible damage processes from one event and a region. On the other hand, a single generalized model covering multiple events and different regions ignores the variability in damage processes across regions and events due to variables that are not explicitly accounted for individual households. We implement a hierarchical Bayesian approach to parameterize widely used depth-damage functions resulting in a hierarchical (multilevel) Bayesian model (HBM) for flood loss estimation that accounts for spatiotemporal heterogeneity in damage processes. We test and prove the hypothesis that, in transfer scenarios, HBMs are superior compared to generalized and localized regression models. In order to improve loss predictions for regions and events for which no empirical damage data are available, we use variables pertaining to specific region- and event-characteristics representing commonly available expert knowledge as group-level predictors within the HBM.
Empirical evidence of the relationship between social support and post-disaster mental health provides support for a general beneficial effect of social support (main-effect model; Wheaton, 1985). From a theoretical perspective, a buffering effect of social support on the negative relationship between disaster-related stress and mental health also seems plausible (stress-buffering model; Wheaton, 1985). Previous studies, however, (a) have paid less attention to the buffering effect of social support and (b) have mainly relied on interpersonal support (but not collective-level support such as community resilience) when investigating this issue. This previous work might have underestimated the effect of support on post-disaster mental health. Building on a sample of residents in Germany recently affected by flooding (N = 118), we show that community resilience to flooding (but not general interpersonal social support) buffered against the negative effects of flooding on post-disaster mental health. The results support the stress-buffering model and call for a more detailed look at the relationship between support and resilience and post-disaster adjustment, including collective-level variables.
Paleogeographic reconstructions of terranes can greatly benefit from the provenance analysis of sediments. A series of Cenozoic basins provide key sedimentary archives for investigating the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the provenance of the sediments in these basins has never been constrained robustly. Here we report sedimentary petrological and detrital zircon geochronological data from the Paleocene-Eocene Nangqian-Xialaxiu and Gongjue basins. Sandstone detrital modes and zircon morphology suggest that the samples collected in these two basins were sourced from recycled orogen. Detrital zircon geochronology indicates that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin are characterized by two distinct age populations at 220-280 Ma and 405-445 Ma. In contrast, three predominant age populations of 207-256 Ma, 423-445 Ma, and 1851-1868 Ma, and two subordinate age populations of similar to 50 Ma and similar to 2500 Ma, are recognized in the Gongjue Basin. Comparison with detrital zircon ages from the surrounding terranes suggests that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin come from the neighboring thrust belts, whereas sediments from the Gongjue Basin are predominantly derived from the distant Songpan-Ganzi Terrane with minor contribution from the surrounding areas. A three-stage Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is proposed. During the Paleocene, the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin appeared as a set of small intermontane sub-basins and received plentiful sediments from the neighboring mountain belts; during the Eocene, the Gongjue Basin kept a relatively low altitude and was a depression at the edge of a proto-Plateau; since the Oligocene, the Tibetan Plateau further uplifted and the marginal Gongjue Basin was involved in the Tibetan interior orogeny, indicating the eastward propagation of the Tibetan Plateau.
We analyzed the Lomas de Carabajal area in the intermontane Lerma valley of the Cordillera Oriental to assess the level of neotectonic activity in a densely populated region of northwestern Argentina. In this region, Plio-Pleistocene synorogenic conglomerates are deformed, locally associated with high-angle faults, and NNW-SSE oriented en-echelon folds characterized by wavelengths of < 1 km. The deformed Quaternary units follow the same pattern of deformation as observed in the underlying Neogene deposits; growth-strata geometries are observed near faults. This configuration is compatible with local left-lateral transpressional tectonism driven by ENE-WSW buttressing against the NW-oriented border of a Cretaceous extensional basin (Alemania sub-basin). Optically Stimulated Luminescence analysis of sandy-silty layers interbedded within the folded late Pleistocene conglomeratic sequence helps to determine uplift rates of 0.83-0.87 mm/a during the last 30-40 ka. Nearby the Lomas de Carabajal, a WNW-striking, 3-m-high fault scarp disrupts radiocarbon dated, 10-ka-old loessic deposits providing a Holocene mean uplift rate of 0.30 mm/a. Our data unambiguously show that shallow crustal deformation in the intermontane Lerma valley is ongoing; some of this deformation may be associated with seismicity. Our findings support the notion of temporally and spatially disparate deformation processes in the broken foreland of the northwestern Argentinean Andes.
Sociocultural valuation (SCV) of ecosystem services (ES) discloses the principles, importance or preferences expressed by people towards nature. Although ES research has increasingly addressed sociocultural values in past years, little effort has been made to systematically review the components of sociocultural valuation applications for different decision contexts (i.e. awareness raising, accounting, priority setting, litigation and instrument design). In this analysis, we investigate the characteristics of 48 different sociocultural valuation applications—characterised by unique combinations of decision context, methods, data collection formats and participants—across ten European case studies. Our findings show that raising awareness for the sociocultural value of ES by capturing people’s perspective and establishing the status quo, was found the most frequent decision context in case studies, followed by priority setting and instrument development. Accounting and litigation issues were not addressed in any of the applications. We reveal that applications for particular decision contexts are methodologically similar, and that decision contexts determine the choice of methods, data collection formats and participants involved. Therefore, we conclude that understanding the decision context is a critical first step to designing and carrying out fit-for-purpose sociocultural valuation of ES in operational ecosystem management.
Colombia's agriculture, forestry and other land use sector accounts for nearly half of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The importance of smallholder deforestation is comparatively high in relation to its regional counterparts, and livestock agriculture represents the largest driver of primary forest depletion. Silvopastoral systems (SPSs) are presented as agroecological solutions that synergistically enhance livestock productivity, improve local farmers' livelihoods and hold the potential to reduce pressure on forest conversion. The department of Caquetá represents Colombia's most important deforestation hotspot. Targeting smallholder livestock farms through survey data, in this work we investigate the GHG mitigation potential of implementing SPSs for smallholder farms in this region. Specifically, we assess whether the carbon sequestration taking place in the soil and biomass of SPSs is sufficient to offset the per-hectare increase in livestock GHG emissions resulting from higher stocking rates. To address these questions we use data on livestock population characteristics and historic land cover changes reported from a survey covering 158 farms and model the carbon sequestration occurring in three different scenarios of progressively-increased SPS complexity using the CO2 fix model. We find that, even with moderate tree planting densities, the implementation of SPSs can reduce GHG emissions by 2.6 Mg CO2e ha−1 yr−1 in relation to current practices, while increasing agriculture productivity and contributing to the restoration of severely degraded landscapes.
Caldera unrest can lead to major volcanic eruptions. Analysis of subtle subsidence or inflation at calderas helps understanding of their subsurface volcanic processes and related hazards. Several subsiding calderas have shown similar patterns of ground deformation composed of broad subsidence affecting the entire volcanic edifice and stronger localized subsidence focused inside the caldera. Physical models of internal deformation sources used to explain these observations typically consist of two magma reservoirs at different depths in an elastic half-space. However, such models ignore important subsurface structures, such as ring faults, that may influence the deformation pattern. Here we use both analog subsidence experiments and boundary element modeling to study the three-dimensional geometry and kinematics of caldera subsidence processes, evolving from an initial downsag to a later collapse stage. We propose that broad subsidence is mainly caused by volume decrease within a single magma reservoir, whereas buried ring-fault activity localizes the deformation within the caldera. Omitting ring faulting in physical models of subsiding calderas and using multiple point/sill-like sources instead can result in erroneous estimates of magma reservoir depths and volume changes. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Permafrost thaw subjects previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial degradation to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Emission of these gases constitutes a positive feedback to climate warming. Among numerous uncertainties in estimating the strength of this permafrost carbon feedback (PCF), two are: (i) how mineralization of permafrost SOC thawed in saturated anaerobic conditions responds to changes in temperature and (ii) how microbial communities and temperature sensitivities change over time since thaw. To address these uncertainties, we utilized a thermokarst-lake sediment core as a natural chronosequence where SOC thawed and incubated in situ under saturated anaerobic conditions for up to 400 years following permafrost thaw. Initial microbial communities were characterized, and sediments were anaerobically incubated in the lab at four temperatures (0 °C, 3 °C, 10 °C, and 25 °C) bracketing those observed in the lake's talik. Net CH4 production in freshly-thawed sediments near the downward-expanding thaw boundary at the base of the talik were most sensitive to warming at the lower incubation temperatures (0 °C to 3 °C), while the overlying sediments which had been thawed for centuries had initial low abundant methanogenic communities (< 0.02%) and did not experience statistically significant increases in net CH4 production potentials until higher incubation temperatures (10 °C to 25 °C). We propose these observed differences in temperature sensitivities are due to differences in SOM quality and functional microbial community composition that evolve over time; however further research is necessary to better constrain the roles of these factors in determining temperature controls on anaerobic C mineralization.
The Alpine orogen formed as a result of the collision between the Adriatic and European plates. Significant crustal heterogeneity exists within the region due to the long history of interplay between these plates, other continental and oceanic blocks in the region, and inherited crustal features from earlier orogenies. Deformation relating to the collision continues to the present day. Here, a seismically constrained, 3-D structural and density model of the lithosphere of the Alps and their respective forelands, derived from integrating numerous geoscientific datasets, was adjusted to match the observed gravity field. It is shown that the distribution of seismicity and deformation within the region correlates well to thickness and density changes within the crust, and that the present-day Adriatic crust is both thinner and denser (22.5 km, 2800 kg m(-3) ) than the European crust (27.5 km, 2750 kg m(-3)). Alpine crust derived from each respective plate is found to show the same trend, with zones of Adriatic provenance (Austro-Alpine unit and Southern Alps) found to be denser and those of European provenance (Helvetic zone and Tauern Window) to be less dense. This suggests that the respective plates and related terranes had similar crustal properties to the present-day ones prior to orogenesis. The model generated here is available for open-access use to further discussions about the crust in the region.
Climate change is affecting the rate of carbon cycling, particularly in the Arctic. Permafrost degradation through deeper thaw and physical disturbances results in the release of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere and to an increase in lateral dissolved organic matter (DOM) fluxes. Whereas riverine DOM fluxes of the large Arctic rivers are well assessed, knowledge is limited with regard to small catchments that cover more than 40% of the Arctic drainage basin. Here, we use absorption measurements to characterize changes in DOM quantity and quality in a low Arctic (Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada) and a high Arctic (Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada) setting with regard to geographical differences, impacts of permafrost degradation, and rainfall events. We find that DOM quantity and quality is controlled by differences in vegetation cover and soil organic carbon content (SOCC). The low Arctic site has higher SOCC and greater abundance of plant material resulting in higher chromophoric dissolved organic matter (cDOM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) than in the high Arctic. DOC concentration and cDOM in surface waters at both sites show strong linear relationships similar to the one for the great Arctic rivers. We used the optical characteristics of DOM such as cDOM absorption, specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), ultraviolet (UV) spectral slopes (S275-295), and slope ratio (SR) for assessing quality changes downstream, at base flow and storm flow conditions, and in relation to permafrost disturbance. DOM in streams at both sites demonstrated optical signatures indicative of photodegradation downstream processes, even over short distances of 2000 m. Flow pathways and the connected hydrological residence time control DOM quality. Deeper flow pathways allow the export of permafrost-derived DOM (i.e. from deeper in the active layer), whereas shallow pathways with shorter residence times lead to the export of fresh surface- and near-surface-derived DOM. Compared to the large Arctic rivers, DOM quality exported from the small catchments studied here is much fresher and therefore prone to degradation. Assessing optical properties of DOM and linking them to catchment properties will be a useful tool for understanding changing DOM fluxes and quality at a pan-Arctic scale.
The processes that control long term landscape evolution in continental interiors and, in particular, along passive margins such as in southern Africa, are still the subject of much debate (e.g. Braun, 2018). Although today the Namibian margin is characterized by an arid climate, it has experienced climatic fluctuations during the Cenozoic and, yet, to date no study has documented the potential role of climate on its erosion history. In western Namibia, the Brandberg Massif, an erosional remnant or inselberg, provides a good opportunity to document the Cenozoic denudation history of the margin using the relationship between rock cooling or exhumation ages and their elevation. Here we provide new apatite (UThSm)/He dates on the Brandberg Inselberg that range from 151 +/- 12 to 30 +/- 2 Ma. Combined with existing apatite fission track data, they yield new constraints on the denudation history of the margin. These data document two main cooling phases since continental break-up 130 Myr ago, a rapid one (similar to 10 degrees C/Myr) following break-up and a slower one (similar to 12 degrees C/Myr) between 65 and 35 Ma. We interpret them respectively to be related to escarpment erosion following rifting and continental break-up and as a phase of enhanced denudation during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We propose that during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum chemical weathering was important and contributed significantly to the denudation of the Namibian margin and the formation of a pediplain around the Brandberg and enhanced valley incision within the massif. Additionally, aridification of the region since 35 Ma has resulted in negligible denudation rates since that time. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The in-phase response collected by portable loop-loop electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors operating at low and moderate induction numbers (<= 1) is typically used for sensing the magnetic permeability (or susceptibility) of the subsurface. This is due to the fact that the in-phase response contains a small induction fraction and a preponderant induced magnetization fraction. The magnetization fraction follows the magneto-static equations similarly to the magnetic method but with an active magnetic source. The use of an active source offers the possibility to collect data with several loop-loop configurations, which illuminate the subsurface with different sensitivity patterns. Such multiconfiguration soundings thereby allows the imaging of subsurface magnetic permeability/susceptibility variations through an inversion procedure. This method is not affected by the remnant magnetization and theoretically overcomes the classical depth ambiguity generally encountered with passive geomagnetic data. To invert multiconfiguration in-phase data sets, we propose a novel methodology based on a full-grid 3-D multichannel deconvolution (MCD) procedure. This method allows us to invert large data sets (e.g. consisting of more than a hundred thousand of data points) for a dense voxel-based 3-D model of magnetic susceptibility subject to smoothness constraints. In this study, we first present and discuss synthetic examples of our imaging procedure, which aim at simulating realistic conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to field data collected across an archaeological site in Auvergne (France) to image the foundations of a Gallo-Roman villa built with basalt rock material. Our synthetic and field data examples demonstrate the potential of the proposed inversion procedure offering new and complementary ways to interpret data sets collected with modern EMI instruments.
Anthropogenic pressures increasingly alter natural systems. Therefore, understanding the resilience of agent-based complex systems such as ecosystems, i.e. their ability to absorb these pressures and sustain their functioning and services, is a major challenge. However, the mechanisms underlying resilience are still poorly understood. A main reason for this is the multidimensionality of both resilience, embracing the three fundamental stability properties recovery, resistance and persistence, and of the specific situations for which stability properties can be assessed. Agent-based models (ABM) complement empirical research which is, for logistic reasons, limited in coping with these multiple dimensions. Besides their ability to integrate multidimensionality through extensive manipulation in a fully controlled system, ABMs can capture the emergence of system resilience from individual interactions and feedbacks across different levels of organization. To assess the extent to which this potential of ABMs has already been exploited, we reviewed the state of the art in exploring resilience and its multidimensionality in ecological and socio-ecological systems with ABMs. We found that the potential of ABMs is not utilized in most models, as they typically focus on a single dimension of resilience by using variability as a proxy for persistence, and are limited to one reference state, disturbance type and scale. Moreover, only few studies explicitly test the ability of different mechanisms to support resilience. To overcome these limitations, we recommend to simultaneously assess multiple stability properties for different situations and under consideration of the mechanisms that are hypothesised to render a system resilient. This will help us to better exploit the potential of ABMs to understand and quantify resilience mechanisms, and hence support solving real-world problems related to the resilience of agent-based complex systems.
In the Next Generation Attenuation West2 (NGA-West2) project, a 3D subsurface structure model (Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station [J-SHIS]) was queried to establish depths to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s velocity isosurfaces for sites without depth measurement in Japan. In this article, we evaluate the depth parameters in the J-SHIS velocity model by comparing them with their corresponding site-specific depth measurements derived from selected KiK-net velocity profiles. The comparison indicates that the J-SHIS model underestimates site depths at shallow sites and overestimates depths at deep sites. Similar issues were also identified in the southern California basin model. Our results also show that these underestimations and over-estimations have a potentially significant impact on ground-motion prediction using NGA-West2 ground-motion models (GMMs). Site resonant period may be considered as an alternative to depth parameter in the site term of a GMM.
Deformation associated with plate convergence at subduction zones is accommodated by a complex system involving fault slip and viscoelastic flow. These processes have proven difficult to disentangle. The 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake occurred close to the Chilean coast within a dense network of continuously recording Global Positioning System stations, which provide a comprehensive history of surface strain. We use these data to assemble a detailed picture of a structurally controlled megathrust fault frictional patchwork and the three-dimensional rheological and time-dependent viscosity structure of the lower crust and upper mantle, all of which control the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation during postseismic deformation. These results enhance our understanding of subduction dynamics including the interplay of localized and distributed deformation during the subduction zone earthquake cycle.
Britholite group minerals (REE,Ca)(5)[(Si,P)O-4](3)(OH,F) are widespread rare-earth minerals in alkaline rocks and their associated metasomatic zones, where they usually are minor accessory phases. An exception is the REE deposit Rodeo de los Molles, Central Argentina, where fluorbritholite-(Ce) (FBri) is the main carrier of REE and is closely intergrown with fluorapatite (FAp). These minerals reach an abundance of locally up to 75 modal% (FBri) and 20 modal% (FAp) in the vein mineralizations. The Rodeo de los Molles deposit is hosted by a fenitized monzogranite of the Middle Devonian Las Chacras-Potrerillos batholith. The REE mineralization consists of fluorbritholite-(Ce), britholite-(Ce), fluorapatite, allanite-(Ce), and REE fluorcarbonates, and is associated with hydrothermal fluorite, quartz, albite, zircon, and titanite. The REE assemblage takes two forms: irregular patchy shaped REE-rich composites and discrete cross-cutting veins. The irregular composites are more common, but here fluorbritholite-(Ce) is mostly replaced by REE carbonates. The vein mineralization has more abundant and better-preserved britholite phases. The majority of britholite grains at Rodeo de los Molles are hydrothermally altered, and alteration is strongly enhanced by metamictization, which is indicated by darkening of the mineral, loss of birefringence, porosity, and volume changes leading to polygonal cracks in and around altered grains. A detailed electron microprobe study of apatite-britholite minerals from Rodeo de los Molles revealed compositional variations in fluorapatite and fluorbritholite-(Ce) consistent with the coupled substitution of REE3+ + Si4+ = Ca2+ + P5+ and a compositional gap of similar to 4 apfu between the two phases, which we interpret as a miscibility gap. Micrometer-scale intergrowths of fluorapatite in fluorbritholite-(Ce) minerals and vice versa are chemically characterized here for the first time and interpreted as exsolution textures that formed during cooling below the proposed solvus.
Nature-based solutions (NBS) have recently received attention due to their potential ability to sustainably reduce hydro-meteorological risks, providing co-benefits for both ecosystems and affected people. Therefore, pioneering research has dedicated efforts to optimize the design of NBS, to evaluate their wider co-benefits and to understand promoting and/or hampering governance conditions for the uptake of NBS. In this article, we aim to complement this research by conducting a comprehensive literature review of factors shaping people’s perceptions of NBS as a means to reduce hydro-meteorological risks. Based on 102 studies, we identified six topics shaping the current discussion in this field of research: (1) valuation of the co-benefits (including those related to ecosystems and society); (2) evaluation of risk reduction efficacy; (3) stakeholder participation; (4) socio-economic and location-specific conditions; (5) environmental attitude, and (6) uncertainty. Our analysis reveals that concerned empirical insights are diverse and even contradictory, they vary in the depth of the insights generated and are often not comparable for a lack of a sound theoretical-methodological grounding. We, therefore, propose a conceptual model outlining avenues for future research by indicating potential inter-linkages between constructs underlying perceptions of NBS to hydro-meteorological risks.
The Arctic is directly impacted by climate change. The increase in air temperature drives the thawing of permafrost and an increase in coastal erosion and river discharge. This leads to a greater input of sediment and organic matter into coastal waters, which substantially impacts the ecosystems, the subsistence economy of the local population, and the climate because of the transformation of organic matter into greenhouse gases. Yet, the patterns of sediment dispersal in the nearshore zone are not well known, because ships do not often reach shallow waters and satellite remote sensing is traditionally focused on less dynamic environments. The goal of this study is to use the extensive Landsat archive to investigate sediment dispersal patterns specifically on an exemplary Arctic nearshore environment, where field measurements are often scarce. Multiple Landsat scenes were combined to calculate means of sediment dispersal and sea surface temperature under changing seasonal wind conditions in the nearshore zone of Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk in the western Canadian Arctic since 1982. We use observations in the Landsat red and thermal wavebands, as well as a recently published water turbidity algorithm to relate archive wind data to turbidity and sea surface temperature. We map the spatial patterns of turbidity and water temperature at high spatial resolution in order to resolve transport pathways of water and sediment at the water surface. Our results show that these pathways are clearly related to the prevailing wind conditions, being ESE and NW. During easterly wind conditions, both turbidity and water temperature are significantly higher in the nearshore area. The extent of the Mackenzie River plume and coastal erosion are the main explanatory variables for sediment dispersal and sea surface temperature distributions in the study area. During northwesterly wind conditions, the influence of the Mackenzie River plume is negligible. Our results highlight the potential of high spatial resolution Landsat imagery to detect small-scale hydrodynamic processes, but also show the need to specifically tune optical models for Arctic nearshore environments.