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Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variability in Flood Damage Processes
(2019)
Flood damage processes are complex and vary between events and regions. State-of-the-art flood loss models are often developed on the basis of empirical damage data from specific case studies and do not perform well when spatially and temporally transferred. This is due to the fact that such localized models often cover only a small set of possible damage processes from one event and a region. On the other hand, a single generalized model covering multiple events and different regions ignores the variability in damage processes across regions and events due to variables that are not explicitly accounted for individual households. We implement a hierarchical Bayesian approach to parameterize widely used depth-damage functions resulting in a hierarchical (multilevel) Bayesian model (HBM) for flood loss estimation that accounts for spatiotemporal heterogeneity in damage processes. We test and prove the hypothesis that, in transfer scenarios, HBMs are superior compared to generalized and localized regression models. In order to improve loss predictions for regions and events for which no empirical damage data are available, we use variables pertaining to specific region- and event-characteristics representing commonly available expert knowledge as group-level predictors within the HBM.
Empirical evidence of the relationship between social support and post-disaster mental health provides support for a general beneficial effect of social support (main-effect model; Wheaton, 1985). From a theoretical perspective, a buffering effect of social support on the negative relationship between disaster-related stress and mental health also seems plausible (stress-buffering model; Wheaton, 1985). Previous studies, however, (a) have paid less attention to the buffering effect of social support and (b) have mainly relied on interpersonal support (but not collective-level support such as community resilience) when investigating this issue. This previous work might have underestimated the effect of support on post-disaster mental health. Building on a sample of residents in Germany recently affected by flooding (N = 118), we show that community resilience to flooding (but not general interpersonal social support) buffered against the negative effects of flooding on post-disaster mental health. The results support the stress-buffering model and call for a more detailed look at the relationship between support and resilience and post-disaster adjustment, including collective-level variables.
Paleogeographic reconstructions of terranes can greatly benefit from the provenance analysis of sediments. A series of Cenozoic basins provide key sedimentary archives for investigating the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the provenance of the sediments in these basins has never been constrained robustly. Here we report sedimentary petrological and detrital zircon geochronological data from the Paleocene-Eocene Nangqian-Xialaxiu and Gongjue basins. Sandstone detrital modes and zircon morphology suggest that the samples collected in these two basins were sourced from recycled orogen. Detrital zircon geochronology indicates that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin are characterized by two distinct age populations at 220-280 Ma and 405-445 Ma. In contrast, three predominant age populations of 207-256 Ma, 423-445 Ma, and 1851-1868 Ma, and two subordinate age populations of similar to 50 Ma and similar to 2500 Ma, are recognized in the Gongjue Basin. Comparison with detrital zircon ages from the surrounding terranes suggests that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin come from the neighboring thrust belts, whereas sediments from the Gongjue Basin are predominantly derived from the distant Songpan-Ganzi Terrane with minor contribution from the surrounding areas. A three-stage Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is proposed. During the Paleocene, the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin appeared as a set of small intermontane sub-basins and received plentiful sediments from the neighboring mountain belts; during the Eocene, the Gongjue Basin kept a relatively low altitude and was a depression at the edge of a proto-Plateau; since the Oligocene, the Tibetan Plateau further uplifted and the marginal Gongjue Basin was involved in the Tibetan interior orogeny, indicating the eastward propagation of the Tibetan Plateau.
We analyzed the Lomas de Carabajal area in the intermontane Lerma valley of the Cordillera Oriental to assess the level of neotectonic activity in a densely populated region of northwestern Argentina. In this region, Plio-Pleistocene synorogenic conglomerates are deformed, locally associated with high-angle faults, and NNW-SSE oriented en-echelon folds characterized by wavelengths of < 1 km. The deformed Quaternary units follow the same pattern of deformation as observed in the underlying Neogene deposits; growth-strata geometries are observed near faults. This configuration is compatible with local left-lateral transpressional tectonism driven by ENE-WSW buttressing against the NW-oriented border of a Cretaceous extensional basin (Alemania sub-basin). Optically Stimulated Luminescence analysis of sandy-silty layers interbedded within the folded late Pleistocene conglomeratic sequence helps to determine uplift rates of 0.83-0.87 mm/a during the last 30-40 ka. Nearby the Lomas de Carabajal, a WNW-striking, 3-m-high fault scarp disrupts radiocarbon dated, 10-ka-old loessic deposits providing a Holocene mean uplift rate of 0.30 mm/a. Our data unambiguously show that shallow crustal deformation in the intermontane Lerma valley is ongoing; some of this deformation may be associated with seismicity. Our findings support the notion of temporally and spatially disparate deformation processes in the broken foreland of the northwestern Argentinean Andes.
Sociocultural valuation (SCV) of ecosystem services (ES) discloses the principles, importance or preferences expressed by people towards nature. Although ES research has increasingly addressed sociocultural values in past years, little effort has been made to systematically review the components of sociocultural valuation applications for different decision contexts (i.e. awareness raising, accounting, priority setting, litigation and instrument design). In this analysis, we investigate the characteristics of 48 different sociocultural valuation applications—characterised by unique combinations of decision context, methods, data collection formats and participants—across ten European case studies. Our findings show that raising awareness for the sociocultural value of ES by capturing people’s perspective and establishing the status quo, was found the most frequent decision context in case studies, followed by priority setting and instrument development. Accounting and litigation issues were not addressed in any of the applications. We reveal that applications for particular decision contexts are methodologically similar, and that decision contexts determine the choice of methods, data collection formats and participants involved. Therefore, we conclude that understanding the decision context is a critical first step to designing and carrying out fit-for-purpose sociocultural valuation of ES in operational ecosystem management.
Colombia's agriculture, forestry and other land use sector accounts for nearly half of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The importance of smallholder deforestation is comparatively high in relation to its regional counterparts, and livestock agriculture represents the largest driver of primary forest depletion. Silvopastoral systems (SPSs) are presented as agroecological solutions that synergistically enhance livestock productivity, improve local farmers' livelihoods and hold the potential to reduce pressure on forest conversion. The department of Caquetá represents Colombia's most important deforestation hotspot. Targeting smallholder livestock farms through survey data, in this work we investigate the GHG mitigation potential of implementing SPSs for smallholder farms in this region. Specifically, we assess whether the carbon sequestration taking place in the soil and biomass of SPSs is sufficient to offset the per-hectare increase in livestock GHG emissions resulting from higher stocking rates. To address these questions we use data on livestock population characteristics and historic land cover changes reported from a survey covering 158 farms and model the carbon sequestration occurring in three different scenarios of progressively-increased SPS complexity using the CO2 fix model. We find that, even with moderate tree planting densities, the implementation of SPSs can reduce GHG emissions by 2.6 Mg CO2e ha−1 yr−1 in relation to current practices, while increasing agriculture productivity and contributing to the restoration of severely degraded landscapes.
Caldera unrest can lead to major volcanic eruptions. Analysis of subtle subsidence or inflation at calderas helps understanding of their subsurface volcanic processes and related hazards. Several subsiding calderas have shown similar patterns of ground deformation composed of broad subsidence affecting the entire volcanic edifice and stronger localized subsidence focused inside the caldera. Physical models of internal deformation sources used to explain these observations typically consist of two magma reservoirs at different depths in an elastic half-space. However, such models ignore important subsurface structures, such as ring faults, that may influence the deformation pattern. Here we use both analog subsidence experiments and boundary element modeling to study the three-dimensional geometry and kinematics of caldera subsidence processes, evolving from an initial downsag to a later collapse stage. We propose that broad subsidence is mainly caused by volume decrease within a single magma reservoir, whereas buried ring-fault activity localizes the deformation within the caldera. Omitting ring faulting in physical models of subsiding calderas and using multiple point/sill-like sources instead can result in erroneous estimates of magma reservoir depths and volume changes. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Permafrost thaw subjects previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial degradation to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Emission of these gases constitutes a positive feedback to climate warming. Among numerous uncertainties in estimating the strength of this permafrost carbon feedback (PCF), two are: (i) how mineralization of permafrost SOC thawed in saturated anaerobic conditions responds to changes in temperature and (ii) how microbial communities and temperature sensitivities change over time since thaw. To address these uncertainties, we utilized a thermokarst-lake sediment core as a natural chronosequence where SOC thawed and incubated in situ under saturated anaerobic conditions for up to 400 years following permafrost thaw. Initial microbial communities were characterized, and sediments were anaerobically incubated in the lab at four temperatures (0 °C, 3 °C, 10 °C, and 25 °C) bracketing those observed in the lake's talik. Net CH4 production in freshly-thawed sediments near the downward-expanding thaw boundary at the base of the talik were most sensitive to warming at the lower incubation temperatures (0 °C to 3 °C), while the overlying sediments which had been thawed for centuries had initial low abundant methanogenic communities (< 0.02%) and did not experience statistically significant increases in net CH4 production potentials until higher incubation temperatures (10 °C to 25 °C). We propose these observed differences in temperature sensitivities are due to differences in SOM quality and functional microbial community composition that evolve over time; however further research is necessary to better constrain the roles of these factors in determining temperature controls on anaerobic C mineralization.