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Landslides are a hazard for humans and artificial structures. From an ecological point of view, they represent an important ecosystem disturbance, especially in tropical montane forests. Here, shallow translational landslides are a frequent natural phenomenon and one local determinant of high levels of biodiversity. In this paper, we apply weighted ensembles of advanced phenomenological models from statistics and machine learning to analyze the driving factors of natural landslides in a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador. We exclusively interpret terrain attributes, derived from a digital elevation model, as proxies to several driving factors of landslides and use them as predictors in our models which are trained on a set of five historical landslide inventories. We check the model generality by transferring them in time and use three common performance criteria (i.e. AUC, explained deviance and slope of model calibration curve) to, on the one hand, compare several state-of-the-art model approaches and on the other hand, to create weighted model ensembles. Our results suggest that it is important to consider more than one single performance criterion.
Approaching our main question, we compare responses of weighted model ensembles that were trained on distinct functional units of landslides (i.e. initiation, transport and deposition zones). This way, we are able to show that it is quite possible to deduce driving factors of landslides, if the consistency between the training data and the processes is maintained. Opening the 'black box' of statistical models by interpreting univariate model response curves and relative importance of single predictors regarding their plausibility, we provide a means to verify this consistency.
With the exception of classification tree analysis, all techniques performed comparably well in our case study while being outperformed by weighted model ensembles. Univariate response curves of models trained on distinct functional units of landslides exposed different shapes following our expectations. Our results indicate the occurrence of landslides to be mainly controlled by factors related to the general position along a slope (i.e. ridge, open slope or valley) while landslide initiation seems to be favored by small scale convexities on otherwise plain open slopes.
Propagation rate coefficients for homogeneous phase VDF-HFP copolymerization in supercritical CO2
(2012)
For the first time, propagation rate coefficients, kp,COPO, for the copolymerizations of vinylidene fluoride and hexafluoropropene have been determined. The kinetic data was determined via pulsed-laser polymerization in conjunction with polymer analysis via size-exclusion chromatography, the PLP-SEC technique. The experiments were carried out in homogeneous phase with supercritical CO2 as solvent for temperatures ranging from 45 to 90 degrees C. Absolute polymer molecular weights were calculated on the basis of experimentally determined MarkHouwink constants. The Arrhenius parameters of kp,COPO vary significantly compared with ethene, which is explained by the high electronegativity of fluorine and less intra- and intermolecular interactions between the partially fluorinated macroradicals.
There is a wide variety of drivers for business process modelling initiatives, reaching from organisational redesign to the development of information systems. Consequently, a common business process is often captured in multiple models that overlap in content due to serving different purposes. Business process management aims at flexible adaptation to changing business needs. Hence, changes of business processes occur frequently and have to be incorporated in the respective process models. Once a process model is changed, related process models have to be updated accordingly, despite the fact that those process models may only be loosely coupled. In this article, we introduce an approach that supports change propagation between related process models. Given a change in one process model, we leverage the behavioural abstraction of behavioural profiles for corresponding activities in order to determine a change region in another model. Our approach is able to cope with changes in pairs of models that are not related by hierarchical refinement and show behavioural inconsistencies. We evaluate the applicability of our approach with two real-world process model collections. To this end, we either deduce change operations from different model revisions or rely on synthetic change operations.
This article addresses the problem of estimating the Quality of Service (QoS) of a composite service given the QoS of the services participating in the composition. Previous solutions to this problem impose restrictions on the topology of the orchestration models, limiting their applicability to well-structured orchestration models for example. This article lifts these restrictions by proposing a method for aggregate QoS computation that deals with more general types of unstructured orchestration models. The applicability and scalability of the proposed method are validated using a collection of models from industrial practice.
We introduce an approach to computing answer sets of logic programs, based on concepts successfully applied in Satisfiability (SAT) checking. The idea is to view inferences in Answer Set Programming (ASP) as unit propagation on nogoods. This provides us with a uniform constraint-based framework capturing diverse inferences encountered in ASP solving. Moreover, our approach allows us to apply advanced solving techniques from the area of SAT. As a result, we present the first full-fledged algorithmic framework for native conflict-driven ASP solving. Our approach is implemented in the ASP solver clasp that has demonstrated its competitiveness and versatility by winning first places at various solver contests.
The aim of this experimental study was to evaluate and compare the geochemical impact of pure and impure CO2 on rock forming minerals of possible CO2 storage reservoirs. This geochemical approach takes into account the incomplete purification of industrial captured CO2 and the related effects during injection, and provides relevant data for long-term storage simulations of this specific greenhouse gas. Batch experiments were conducted to investigate the interactions of supercritical CO2, brine and rock-forming mineral concentrates (albite, microcline, kaolinite, biotite, muscovite, calcite, dolomite and anhydrite) using a newly developed experimental setup. After up to 42 day (1000 h) experiments using pure and impure supercritical CO2 the dissolution and solution characteristics were examined by XRD, XRF, SEM and EDS for the solid, and ICP-MS and IC for the fluid reactants, respectively. Experiments with mixtures of supercritical CO2 (99.5 vol.%) and SO2 or NO2 impurities (0.5 vol.%) suggest the formation of H2SO4 and HNO3, reflected in pH values between 1 and 4 for experiments with silicates and anhydrite and between 5 and 6 for experiments with carbonates. These acids should be responsible for the general larger amount of cations dissolved from the mineral phases compared to experiments using pure CO2. For pure CO2 a pH of around 4 was obtained using silicates and anhydrite, and 7-8 for carbonates. Dissolution of carbonates was observed after both pure and impure CO2 experiments. Anhydrite was corroded by approximately 50 wt.% and gypsum precipitated during experiments with supercritical CO2 + NO2. Silicates do not exhibit visible alterations during all experiments but released an increasing amount of cations in the reaction fluid during experiments with impure CO2. Nonetheless, precipitated secondary carbonates could not be identified.
During natural reading, a parafoveal preview of the upcoming word facilitates its subsequent recognition (e.g., shorter fixation durations compared to masked preview) but nothing is known about the neural correlates of this so-called preview benefit. Furthermore, while the evidence is strong that readers preprocess orthographic features of upcoming words, it is controversial whether word meaning can also be accessed parafoveally. We investigated the timing, scope, and electrophysiological correlates of parafoveal information use in reading by simultaneously recording eye movements and fixation-related brain potentials (FRPs) while participants read word lists fluently from left to right. For one word the target (e.g., "blade") parafoveal information was manipulated by showing an identical ("blade"), semantically related ("knife"), or unrelated ("sugar") word as preview. In boundary trials, the preview was shown parafoveally but changed to the correct target word during the incoming saccade. Replicating classic findings, target words were fixated shorter after identical previews. In the EEG, this benefit was reflected in an occipitotemporal preview positivity between 200 and 280 ms. In contrast, there was no facilitation from related previews. In parafoveal-on-foveal trials, preview and target were embedded at neighboring list positions without a display change. Consecutive fixation of two related words produced N400 priming effects, but only shortly (160 ms) after the second word was directly fixated. Results demonstrate that neural responses to words are substantially altered by parafoveal preprocessing under normal reading conditions. We found no evidence that word meaning contributes to these effects. Saccade-contingent display manipulations can be combined with EEG recordings to study extrafoveal perception in vision.
Individual differences in interoceptive sensitivity are associated with differences in reported intensity of emotional experience, vulnerability to anxiety and mood disorder and capacity for emotional self-regulation. Enhanced sensitivity to autonomic state is often accompanied by increased autonomic reactivity. Here we tested the hypothesis that healthy people classified as more interoceptively sensitive, by their performance of a heartbeat monitoring task, will demonstrate enhanced perception of pain. We further explored whether this effect is associated with a greater physiological reactivity to the pain stimuli. Using an algometer, cutaneous pressure pain was applied to the thenar eminence in 60 healthy participants. Heart rate variability and respiratory activity were recorded concurrently. We observed significant relationships between heightened interoceptive sensitivity and both enhanced sensitivity and decreased tolerance to pain. These effects were accompanied by a more pronounced parasympathetic decrease and a change in sympathovagal balance during pain assessment in the high, compared to the low, interoceptively sensitive group. Our study provides novel evidence that interoceptive sensitivity is associated with the experience and tolerability of pain in conjunction with reactive changes in autonomic balance.
We have analyzed the O-antigen polysaccharide of the previously uncharacterized Escherichia coli strain TD2158 which is a host of bacteriophage HK620. This bacteriophage recognizes and cleaves the polysaccharide with its tailspike protein (TSP). The polysaccharide preparation as well as oligosaccharides obtained from HK620TSP endoglycosidase digests were analyzed with NMR spectroscopy. Additionally, sugar analysis was performed on the O-antigen polysaccharide and MALDI-TOF MS was used in oligosaccharide analysis. The present study revealed a heterogeneous polysaccharide with a hexasaccharide repeating unit of the following structure:
alpha-D-Glcp-(1 -> 6) vertical bar vertical bar 2)-alpha-L-Rhap-(1 -> 6)-alpha-D-Glcp-(1 -> 4)-alpha-D-Galp-(1 -> 3)-alpha-D-GlcpNAc- (1 ->vertical bar beta-D-Glcp/beta-D-GlcpNAc-(1 -> 3)
A repeating unit with a D-GlcNAc substitution of D-Gal has been described earlier as characteristic for serogroup O18A1. Accordingly, we termed repeating units with D-Glc substitution at D-Gal as O18A2. NMR analyses of the polysaccharide confirmed that O18A1- and O18A2-type repeats were present in a 1:1 ratio. However, HK620TSP preferentially bound the D-GlcNAc- substituted O18A1-type repeating units in its high affinity binding pocket with a dissociation constant of 140 mu M and disfavored the O18A2-type having a beta-D-Glcp-(1 -> 3)-linked group. As a result, in hexasaccharide preparations, O18A1 and O18A2 repeats were present in a 9: 1 ratio stressing the clear preference of O18A1- type repeats to be cleaved by HK620TSP.
1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO2 level increase in combination with changes in inter- and intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration.