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The International Union of Geological Sciences (JUGS) is evaluating whether there are additional geoscientific activities that would be beneficial in helping mitigate the impacts of tsunami. Public concerns about poor decisions and inaction, and advances in computing power and data mining call for new scientific approaches. Three fundamental requirements for mitigating impacts of natural hazards are defined. These are: (1) improvement of process-oriented understanding, (2) adequate monitoring and optimal use of data, and (3) generation of advice based on scientific, technical and socio-economic expertise. International leadership/coordination is also important.
To increase the capacity to predict and mitigate the impacts of tsunami and other natural hazards a broad consensus is needed. The main needs include the integration of systematic geological inputs - identifying and studying paleo-tsunami deposits for all subduction zones; optimising coverage and coordination of geodetic and seismic monitoring networks; underpinning decision making at national and international scales by developing appropriate mechanisms for gathering, managing and communicating authoritative scientific and technical advice information; international leadership for coordination and authoritative statements of best approaches. All these suggestions are reflected in the Sendai Agreement, the collective views of the experts at the International Workshop on Natural Hazards, presented later in this volume.
The Tarutung Basin is located at a right step-over in the northern central segment of the dextral strike-slip Sumatran Fault System (SFS). Details of the fault structure along the Tarutung Basin are derived from the relocations of seismicity as well as from focal mechanism and structural geology. The seismicity distribution derived by a 3D inversion for hypocenter relocation is clustered according to a fault-like seismicity distribution. The seismicity is relocated with a double-difference technique (HYPODD) involving the waveform cross-correlations. We used 46,904 and 3191 arrival differences obtained from catalogue data and cross-correlation analysis, respectively. Focal mechanisms of events were analyzed by applying a grid search method (HASH code). Although there is no significant shift of the hypocenters (10.8 m in average) and centroids (167 m in average), the application of the double difference relocation sharpens the earthquake distribution. The earthquake lineation reflects the fault system, the extensional duplex fault system, and the negative flower structure within the Tarutung Basin. The focal mechanisms of events at the edge of the basin are dominantly of strike-slip type representing the dextral strike-slip Sumatran Fault System. The almost north south striking normal fault events along extensional zones beneath the basin correlate with the maximum principal stress direction which is the direction of the Indo-Australian plate motion. The extensional zones form an en-echelon pattern indicated by the presence of strike-slip faults striking NE SW to NW SE events. The detailed characteristics of the fault system derived from the seismological study are also corroborated by structural geology at the surface. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Understanding the relationships between density and spatio-thermal variations at convergent plate boundaries is important for deciphering the present-day dynamics and evolution of subduction zones. In particular, the interaction between densification due to mineralogical phase transitions and slab pull forces is subject to ongoing investigations. We have developed a two-dimensional subduction zone model that is based on thermodynamic equilibrium assemblage calculations and includes the effects of melting processes on the density distribution in the lithosphere. Our model calculates the "metamorphic density" of rocks as a function of pressure, temperature and chemical composition in a subduction zone down to 250 km. We have used this model to show how the hydration, dehydration, partial melting and fractionation processes of rocks all influence the metamorphic density and greatly depend on the temperature field within the subduction system. These processes are largely neglected by other approaches that reproduce the density distribution within this complex tectonic setting. Our model demonstrates that the initiation of edogitization (i.e., when crustal rocks reach higher densities than the ambient mantle) of the slab is not the only significant process that makes the descending slab denser and generates the slab pull force. Instead, the densification of the lithospheric mantle of the sinking slab starts earlier than eclogitization and contributes significantly to slab pull in the early stages of subduction. Accordingly, the complex metamorphic structure of the slab and the mantle wedge has an important impact on the development of subduction zones. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The marine-controlled source electromagnetic method (mCSEM) is employed for studying the electrical characteristics and fluid contents of sedimentary reservoirs. However, the success rate of the method can be improved significantly by finding the sources of electromagnetic noise and addressing the challenge posed by them at larger offsets where the reservoir signal is often weak. I have studied the mCSEM data and reporting an electromagnetic noise. The strength of the noise is observed 1600 times stronger than the seafloor mCSEM signal at 0.1 Hz. Moreover, the noise and the transmitted mCSEM signals are found coherent in interstation recordings. These readings suggest the severity of the noise. The source investigation presuming the observed noise as an infragravity wave failed to match the response. Then, the role of microseisms is investigated. Microseism causes oscillation of the seafloor and produces electromagnetic disturbances by the dynamics of water. I have used various conditions for a proper discrimination of the noise as microseisms. This mechanism is clearly illustrated with the help of a conceptual diagram. The role of the directionality is part of the study, which is argued for having a significant role in the generation of microseisms. In this paper, a new algorithm is presented and is used for calculating the coherency. The algorithm helps in mapping the coherency value simultaneously in time and frequency domains.
Many coasts feature sequences of Quaternary and Neogene shorelines that are shaped by a combination of sea-level oscillations and tectonics. We compiled a global synthesis of sea-level changes for the following highstands: MIS 1, MIS 3, MIS 5e and MIS 11. Also, we date the apparent onset of sequences of paleoshorelines either from published data or tentatively extrapolating an age for the uppermost, purported oldest shoreline in each sequence. Including the most documented MIS 5e benchmark, we identify 926 sequences out of which 185 also feature Holocene shorelines. Six areas are identified where elevations of the MIS 3 shorelines are known, and 31 feature elevation data for MIS 11 shorelines. Genetic relationships to regional geodynamics are further explored based on the elevations of the MIS 5e benchmark. Mean apparent uplift rates range from 0.01 0.01 mm/yr (hotspots) to 1.47 0.08 mm/yr (continental collision). Passive margins appear as ubiquitously uplifting, while tectonic segmentation is more important on active margins. From the literature and our extrapolations, we infer ages for the onset of formation for -180 coastal sequences. Sea level fingerprinting on coastal sequences started at least during mid Miocene and locally as early as Eocene. Whether due to the changes in the bulk volume of seawater or to the temporal variations in the shape of ocean basins, estimates of eustasy fail to explain the magnitude of the apparent sea level drop. Thus, vertical ground motion is invoked, and we interpret the longlasting development of those paleoshore sequences as the imprint of glacial cycles on globally uplifted margins in response to continental compression. The geomorphological expression of the sequences matches the amplitude and frequency of glacial cyclicity. From middle Pleistocene to present-day, moderately fast (100,000 yrs) oscillating sea levels favor the development of well identified strandlines that are distinct from one another. Pliocene and Lower Pleistocene strandlines associated with faster cyclicity (40,000 yrs) are more compact and easily merge into rasas, whereas older Cenozoic low-frequency eustatic changes generally led to widespread flat-lying coastal plains.
Deep seepage estimation is important for water balance investigations of groundwater and the vadose zone. A simplified Buckingham-Darcy method to assess time series of deep seepage fluxes was proposed by Schindler and Muller (1998). In the method dynamics of water fluxes are calculated by a soil hydraulic conductivity function. Measured soil moistures and matric heads are used as input data. Resulting time series of flux dynamics are scaled to realistic absolute levels by calibrating the method with the areal water balance. An assumption of the method is that water fluxes at different positions exhibit identical dynamics although their absolute values can differ. The aim of this study was to investigate uncertainties of that method depending on the particle size distribution and textural heterogeneity in non-layered soils. We performed a numerical experiment using the two-dimensional Richards Equation. A basic model of transient water fluxes beneath the root and capillary zone was setup and used to simulate time series of soil moisture, matric head, and seepage fluxes for 4221 different cases of particle size distribution and intensities of textural heterogeneity. Soil hydraulic parameters were predicted by the pedotransfer function Rosetta. Textural heterogeneity was modeled with Miller and Miller scaling factors arranged in spatial random fields. Seepage fluxes were calculated with the Buckingham-Darcy method from simulated soil moisture and matric head time series and compared with simulated reference fluxes. The median of Root Mean Square Error was about 0.026 cm d(-1) and the median of maximum cross correlation was 0.96 when the method was calibrated adequately. The method's performance was mainly influenced by (i) the soil textural class and (ii) the time period used for flux calibration. It performed best in sandy loam while hotspots of errors occurred in sand and silty texture. Calibrating the method with time periods that exhibit high variance of seepage fluxes yielded the best performance. The geostatistical properties of the Miller and Miller scaling field influenced the performance only slightly. However, the Miller and Miller scaling procedure generated heterogeneous flow fields that were addressed as main reason for mismatches of simulated reference fluxes and fluxes obtained with the Buckingham-Darcy method.
The century-long debate over the origins of inner gorges that were repeatedly covered by Quaternary glaciers hinges upon whether the gorges are fluvial forms eroded by subaerial rivers, or subglacial forms cut beneath ice. Here we apply cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating to seven inner gorges along similar to 500 km of the former Fennoscandian ice sheet margin in combination with a new deglaciation map. We show that the timing of exposure matches the advent of ice-free conditions, strongly suggesting that gorges were cut by channelized subglacial meltwater while simultaneously being shielded from cosmic rays by overlying ice. Given the exceptional hydraulic efficiency required for meltwater channels to erode bedrock and evacuate debris, we deduce that inner gorges are the product of ice sheets undergoing intense surface melting. The lack of postglacial river erosion in our seven gorges implicates subglacial meltwater as a key driver of valley deepening on the Baltic Shield over multiple glacial cycles.
Sedimentary proxies used to reconstruct marine productivity suffer from variable preservation and are sensitive to factors other than productivity. Therefore, proxy calibration is warranted. Here we map the spatial patterns of two paleoproductivity proxies, biogenic opal and barium fluxes, from a set of core-top sediments recovered in the Subarctic North Pacific. Comparisons of the proxy data with independent estimates of primary and export production, surface water macronutrient concentrations, and biological pCO(2) drawdown indicate that neither proxy shows a significant correlation with primary or export productivity for the entire region. Biogenic opal fluxes, when corrected for preservation using Th-230-normalized accumulation rates, show a good correlation with primary productivity along the volcanic arcs (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0024) and with export productivity throughout the western Subarctic North Pacific (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0107). Moderate and good correlations of biogenic barium flux with export production (tau = 0.57, p = 0.0022) and with surface water silicate concentrations (tau = 0.70, p = 0.0002) are observed for the central and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. For reasons unknown, however, no correlation is found in the western Subarctic North Pacific between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Nonetheless, we show that barite saturation, uncertainty in the lithogenic barium corrections, and problems with the reference data sets are not responsible for the lack of a significant correlation between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Further studies evaluating the factors controlling the variability of the biogenic constituents in the sediments are desirable in this region.
Remote sensing analysis is a crucial tool for monitoring the extent of mine waste surfaces and their mineralogy in countries with a long mining history, such as South Africa, where gold and platinum have been produced for over 90 years. These mine waste sites have the potential to contain problematic trace element species (e. g., U, Pb, Cr). In our research, we aim to combine the mapping and monitoring capacities of multispectral and hyperspectral spaceborne sensors. This is done to assess the potential of existing multispectral and hyperspectral spaceborne sensors (OLI and Hyperion) and future missions, such as Sentinel-2 and EnMAP (Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program), for mapping the spatial extent of these mine waste surfaces. For this task we propose a new index, termed the iron feature depth (IFD), derived from Landsat-8 OLI data to map the 900-nm absorption feature as a potential proxy for monitoring the spatial extent of mine waste. OLI was chosen, because it represents the most suitable sensor to map the IFD over large areas in a multi-temporal manner due to its spectral band layout; its (183 km x 170 km) scene size and its revisiting time of 16 days. The IFD is in good agreement with primary and secondary iron-bearing minerals mapped by the Material Identification and Characterization Algorithm (MICA) from EO-1 Hyperion data and illustrates that a combination of hyperspectral data (EnMAP) for mineral identification with multispectral data (Sentinel-2) for repetitive area-wide mapping and monitoring of the IFD as mine waste proxy is a promising application for future spaceborne sensors. A maximum, absolute model error is used to assess the ability of existing and future multispectral sensors to characterize mine waste via its 900-nm iron absorption feature. The following sensor-signal similarity ranking can be established for spectra from gold mining material: EnMAP 100% similarity to the reference, ALI 97.5%, Sentinel-2 97%, OLI and ASTER 95% and ETM+ 91% similarity.
Extracellular DNA (eDNA) is a ubiquitous biological compound in aquatic sediment and soil. Previous studies suggested that eDNA plays an important role in biogeochemical element cycling, horizontal gene transfer and stabilization of biofilm structures. Previous methods for eDNA extraction were either not suitable for oligotrophic sediments or only allowed quantification but no genetic analyses. Our procedure is based on cell detachment and eDNA liberation from sediment particles by sequential washing with an alkaline sodium phosphate buffer followed by a separation of cells and eDNA. The separated eDNA is then bound onto silica particles and purified, whereas the intracellular DNA from the separated cells is extracted using a commercial kit. The method provides extra- and intracellular DNA of high purity that is suitable for downstream applications like PCR. Extracellular DNA was extracted from organic-rich shallow sediment of the Baltic Sea, glacially influenced sediment of the Barents Sea and from the oligotrophic South Pacific Gyre. The eDNA concentration in these samples varied from 23 to 626 ng g(-1) wet weight sediment. A number of experiments were performed to verify each processing step. Although extraction efficiency is higher than other published methods, it is not fully quantitative. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Questions: (i) Is plant species richness related to patch configuration, quality, heterogeneity and history in very small forest patches? (ii) Is there a similar effect of patch configuration, quality, heterogeneity and history on all plant species or does it vary for different plant groups? (iii) Does the importance of patch configuration, quality, heterogeneity and history vary for plant species richness between patch size classes?
Location: Prignitz region, western part of Brandenburg, Germany
Methods: Plant species lists for 183 forest patches (0.08-12.7 ha) were compiled. We conducted a hierarchical partitioning analysis to test which of the four patch variables - configuration, quality, heterogeneity and history - explained most of the variance in plant species richness and richness of various plant groups.
Results: Irrespective of patch size class, species richness is mainly predicted by patch quality and heterogeneity. In particular, generalists are primarily affected by the soil moisture and nutrient level, and specialists additionally by patch heterogeneity and history. A higher historical habitat quality, together with long habitat continuity, led to an increase in forest specialists and geophytes in all patches. In the >5-ha patches only historical habitat quality accounted for a significant increase in the number of species with short-distance dispersal capacity in all species. Regardless of patch size, the number of locally infrequent species increased significantly with historical habitat quality. The effect of patch configuration was negligible, except for space-filling trees and shrubs, when considering all patches.
Conclusions: Our more comprehensive statistical approach shows, in general, that all complex variables have an effect on species richness and should be considered in future studies. The fact that patch heterogeneity and quality are the main predictors of species richness indicates that very small forest patches covered a range of highly structured patches and sites having various growth conditions. We assume that the century-old tradition of private ownership with smallholder social structure is the main reason for variability in stand structure and species assemblage, resulting in the uniqueness of each patch. Since the number of locally infrequent plant species increases significantly with historical habitat quality, we suggest that it is particularly important to consider this variable in future studies on the decline of infrequent plant species.
Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.
In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio) geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct similar to 1500year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.
The size and dynamics of biogenic silicon (BSi) pools influence silicon (Si) fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems. The research focus up to now was on the role of plants in Si cycling. In recent studies on old forests annual biosilicification rates of idiosomic testate amoebae (i.e. TA producing self-secreted silica shells) were shown to be of the order of Si uptake by trees. However, no comparable data exist for initial ecosystems. We analyzed the protozoic BSi pool (idiosomic TA), corresponding annual biosilicification rates and readily available and amorphous Si fractions along a 10-year chronosequence in a post-mining landscape in Brandenburg, Germany.
Idiosomic Si pools ranged from 3 to 680 g Si ha(-1) and were about 3-4 times higher at vegetated compared to uncovered spots. They increased significantly with age and were related to temporal development of soil chemical properties. The calculation of annual biosilicification resulted in maxima between 2 and 16 kg Si ha(-1) with rates always higher at vegetated spots. Our results showed that the BSi pool of idiosomic TA is built up rapidly during the initial phases of ecosystem development and is strongly linked to plant growth. Furthermore, our findings highlight the importance of TA for Si cycling in young artificial ecosystems. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The complementary advantages of high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) and accelerometer observations for measuring seismic ground motion have been recognised in previous research. Here we propose an approach of tight integration of GPS and accelerometer measurements. The baseline shifts of the accelerometer are introduced as unknown parameters and estimated by a random walk process in the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solution. To demonstrate the performance of the new strategy, we carried out several experiments using collocated GPS and accelerometer. The experimental results show that the baseline shifts of the accelerometer are automatically corrected, and high precision coseismic information of strong ground motion can be obtained in real-time. Additionally, the convergence and precision of the PPP is improved by the combined solution.
The present study proposes a General Probabilistic Framework (GPF) for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models in which, in addition to scalar inputs, non-scalar and correlated inputs can be considered as well. The analysis is conducted with the variance-based approach of Sobol/Saltelli where first and total sensitivity indices are estimated. The results of the framework can be used in a loop for model improvement, parameter estimation or model simplification. The framework is applied to SWAP, a 113 hydrological model for the transport of water, solutes and heat in unsaturated and saturated soils. The sources of uncertainty are grouped in five main classes: model structure (soil discretization), input (weather data), time-varying (crop) parameters, scalar parameters (soil properties) and observations (measured soil moisture). For each source of uncertainty, different realizations are created based on direct monitoring activities. Uncertainty of evapotranspiration, soil moisture in the root zone and bottom fluxes below the root zone are considered in the analysis. The results show that the sources of uncertainty are different for each output considered and it is necessary to consider multiple output variables for a proper assessment of the model. Improvements on the performance of the model can be achieved reducing the uncertainty in the observations, in the soil parameters and in the weather data. Overall, the study shows the capability of the GPF to quantify the relative contribution of the different sources of uncertainty and to identify the priorities required to improve the performance of the model. The proposed framework can be extended to a wide variety of modelling applications, also when direct measurements of model output are not available.
The basin-scale spatial variability in lipid biomarker proxies in lacustrine sediments, which are established tools for studying continental environmental change, has rarely been examined. It is often implicitly assumed that a lake sediment core provides an average integral of catchment sources. Here we evaluated the distribution of lipid biomarkers in a modern ecosystem and compared it with the sedimentary record. We analyzed lipid biomarkers in terrestrial and aquatic organisms and in lake surface sediments from 17 locations within the saline-alkaline Lonar crater lake in central India. Terrestrial vegetation and lake surface sediments were characterized by relatively high average chain length (ACL) index values (29.6-32.8) of leaf wax n-alkanes, consistent with suggestions that plants in drier and warmer climates produce longer chain alkyl lipids than plants in cooler and humid areas. A heterogeneous spatial distribution of ACL values in lake surface sediments was found: at locations away from the shore, the values were highest (31 or more), possibly indicating different sources and/or transport of terrestrial biomarkers. In floating, benthic microbial mats and surface sediment, n-heptadecane, carotenoids, diploptene, phytol and tetrahymanol occurred in large amounts. Interestingly, these biomarkers of a unique bacterial community were found in substantially higher concentrations in nearshore sediment samples. We suggest that human influence and subsequent nutrient supply resulted in increased primary productivity, leading to an unusually high concentration of tetrahymanol in the nearshore sediments. In summary, the data showed that substantial heterogeneity existed within the lake, but leaf wax n-alkanes in a core from the center of the lake represented an integral of catchment conditions. However, lake level fluctuation may potentially affect aquatic lipid biomarker distributions in lacustrine sediments, in addition to source changes.
The complementary advantages of GPS and seismic measurements are well recognized in seismotectonic monitoring studies. Therefore, integrated processing of the two data streams has been proposed recently in an attempt to obtain accurate and reliable information of surface displacements associated with earthquakes. A hitherto still critical issue in the integrated processing is real-time detection and precise estimation of the transient baseline error in the seismic records. Here, we report on a new approach by introducing the seismic acceleration corrected by baseline errors into the state equation system. The correction is performed and regularly updated in short epochs (with increments which may be as short as seconds), so that station position, velocity, and acceleration can be constrained very tightly and baseline error can be estimated as a random-walk process. With the adapted state equation system, our study highlights the use of a new approach developed for integrated processing of GPS and seismic data by means of sequential least-squares adjustment. The efficiency of our approach is demonstrated and validated using simulated, experimental, and real datasets. The latter were collected at collocated GPS and seismic stations around the 4 April 2010, E1 Mayor-Cucapah earthquake (Mw, 7.2). The results have shown that baseline errors of the strong-motion sensors are corrected precisely and high-precision seismic displacements are real-timely obtained by the new approach.
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
The quantitative descriptions of the state of stress in the Earth’s crust, and spatial-temporal stress changes are of great importance in terms of scientific questions as well as applied geotechnical issues. Human activities in the underground (boreholes, tunnels, caverns, reservoir management, etc.) have a large impact on the stress state. It is important to assess, whether these activities may lead to (unpredictable) hazards, such as induced seismicity. Equally important is the understanding of the in situ stress state in the Earth’s crust, as it allows the determination of safe well paths, already during well planning. The same goes for the optimal configuration of the injection- and production wells, where stimulation for artificial fluid path ways is necessary.
The here presented cumulative dissertation consists of four separate manuscripts, which are already published, submitted or will be submitted for peer review within the next weeks. The main focus is on the investigation of the possible usage of geothermal energy in the province Alberta (Canada). A 3-D geomechanical–numerical model was designed to quantify the contemporary 3-D stress tensor in the upper crust. For the calibration of the regional model, 321 stress orientation data and 2714 stress magnitude data were collected, whereby the size and diversity of the database is unique. A calibration scheme was developed, where the model is calibrated versus the in situ stress data stepwise for each data type and gradually optimized using statistically test methods. The optimum displacement on the model boundaries can be determined by bivariate linear regression, based on only three model runs with varying deformation ratio. The best-fit model is able to predict most of the in situ stress data quite well. Thus, the model can provide the full stress tensor along any chosen virtual well paths. This can be used to optimize the orientation of horizontal wells, which e.g. can be used for reservoir stimulation. The model confirms regional deviations from the average stress orientation trend, such as in the region of the Peace River Arch and the Bow Island Arch.
In the context of data compilation for the Alberta stress model, the Canadian database of the World Stress Map (WSM) could be expanded by including 514 new data records. This publication of an update of the Canadian stress map after ~20 years with a specific focus on Alberta shows, that the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) is oriented southwest to northeast over large areas in Northern America. The SHmax orientation in Alberta is very homogeneous, with an average of about 47°. In order to calculate the average SHmax orientation on a regular grid as well as to estimate the wave-length of stress orientation, an existing algorithm has been improved and is applied to the Canadian data. The newly introduced quasi interquartile range on the circle (QIROC) improves the variance estimation of periodic data, as it is less susceptible to its outliers.
Another geomechanical–numerical model was built to estimate the 3D stress tensor in the target area ”Nördlich Lägern” in Northern Switzerland. This location, with Opalinus clay as a host rock, is a potential repository site for high-level radioactive waste. The performed modelling aims to investigate the sensitivity of the stress tensor on tectonic shortening, topography, faults and variable rock properties within the Mesozoic sedimentary stack, according to the required stability needed for a suitable radioactive waste disposal site. The majority of the tectonic stresses caused by the far-field shortening from the South are admitted by the competent rock units in the footwall and hanging wall of the argillaceous target horizon, the Upper Malm and Upper Muschelkalk. Thus, the differential stress within the host rock remains relatively low. East-west striking faults release stresses driven by tectonic shortening. The purely gravitational influence by the topography is low; higher SHmax magnitudes below topographical depression and lower values below hills are mainly observed near the surface. A complete calibration of the model is not possible, as no stress magnitude data are available for calibration, yet. The collection of this data will begin in 2015; subsequently they will be used to adjust the geomechanical–numerical model again.
The third geomechanical–numerical model investigates the stress variation in an ultra-deep gold mine in South Africa. This reservoir model is spatially one order of magnitude smaller than the previous local model from Northern Switzerland. Here, the primary focus is to investigate the hypothesis that the Mw 1.9 earthquake on 27 December 2007 was induced by stress changes due to the mining process. The Coulomb failure stress change (DeltaCFS) was used to analyse the stress change. It confirmed that the seismic event was induced by static stress transfer due to the mining progress. The rock was brought closer to failure on the derived rupture plane by stress changes of up to 1.5–15MPa, in dependence of the DeltaCFS analysis type. A forward modelling of a generic excavation scheme reveals that with decreasing distance to the dyke the DeltaCFS values increase significantly. Hence, even small changes in the mining progress can have a significant impact on the seismic hazard risk, i.e. the change of the occurrence probability to induce a seismic event of economic concern.
We focus on the relation between seismic and total postseismic afterslip following the Maule M-w 8.8 earthquake on 2010 February 27 in central Chile. First, we calculate the cumulative slip released by aftershock seismicity. We do this by summing up the aftershock regions and slip estimated from scaling relations. Comparing the cumulative seismic slip with afterslip modelswe showthat seismic slip of individual aftershocks exceeds locally the inverted afterslip model from geodetic constraints. As the afterslip model implicitly contains the displacements from the aftershocks, this reflects the tendency of afterslip models to smear out the actual slip pattern. However, it also suggests that locally slip for a number of the larger aftershocks exceeds the aseismic slip in spite of the fact that the total equivalent moment of the afterslip exceeds the cumulative moment of aftershocks by a large factor. This effect, seen weakly for the Maule 2010 and also for the Tohoku 2011 earthquake, can be explained by taking into account the uncertainties of the seismicity and afterslip models. In spite of uncertainties, the hypocentral region of the Nias 2005 earthquake is suggested to release a large fraction of moment almost purely seismically. Therefore, these aftershocks are not driven solely by the afterslip but instead their slip areas have probably been stressed by interseismic loading and the mainshock rupture. In a second step, we divide the megathrust of the Maule 2010 rupture into discrete cells and count the number of aftershocks that occur within 50 km of the centre of each cell as a function of time. We then compare this number to a time-dependent afterslip model by defining the 'afterslip to aftershock ratio' (ASAR) for each cell as the slope of the best fitting line when the afterslip at time t is plotted against aftershock count. Although we find a linear relation between afterslip and aftershocks for most cells, there is significant variability in ASAR in both the downdip and along-strike directions of the megathrust. We compare the spatial distribution of ASAR with the spatial distribution of seismic coupling, coseismic slip and Bouguer gravity anomaly, and in each case we find no significant correlation.
The Mohorovicic discontinuity, Moho for short, which marks the boundary between crust and mantle, is the main first-order structure within the lithosphere. Geodynamics and tectonic evolution determine its depth level and properties. Here, we present a map of the Moho in central Europe across the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone, a region for which a number of previous studies are available. Our results are based on homogeneous and consistent processing of P-and S-receiver functions for the largest passive seismological data set in this region yet, consisting of more than 40 000 receiver functions from almost 500 station. Besides, we also provide new results for the crustal vP/vS ratio for the whole area.
Our results are in good agreement with previous, more localized receiver function studies, as well as with the interpretation of seismic profiles, while at the same time resolving a higher level of detail than previous maps covering the area, for example regarding the Eifel Plume region, Rhine Graben and northern Alps. The close correspondence with the seismic data regarding crustal structure also increases confidence in use of the data in crustal corrections and the imaging of deeper structure, for which no independent seismic information is available.
In addition to the pronounced, stepwise transition from crustal thicknesses of 30 km in Phanerozoic Europe to more than 45 beneath the East European Craton, we can distinguish other terrane boundaries based on Moho depth as well as average crustal v(P)/v(S) ratio and Moho phase amplitudes. The terranes with distinct crustal properties span a wide range of ages, from Palaeoproterozoic in Lithuania to Cenozoic in the Alps, reflecting the complex tectonic history of Europe. Crustal thickness and properties in the study area are also markedly influenced by tectonic overprinting, for example the formation of the Central European Basin System, and the European Cenozoic Rift System. In the areas affected by Cenozoic rifting and volcanism, thinning of the crust corresponds to lithospheric updoming reported in recent surface wave and S-receiver function studies, as expected for thermally induced deformation. The same correlation applies for crustal thickening, not only across the Trans-European Suture Zone, but also within the southern part of the Bohemian Massif.
We examine the use of ambient noise cross-correlation tomography for shallow site characterization using a modified two-step approach. Initially, we extract Rayleigh wave traveltimes from correlation traces of vertical component seismic recordings from a local network installed in Mygdonia basin, northern Greece. The obtained Rayleigh wave traveltimes show significant spatial variability, as well as distance and frequency dependence due to the 3-D structure of the area, dispersion, and anelastic attenuation effects. The traveltime data sets are inverted through a surface wave tomography approach to determine group velocity maps for each frequency. The proposed tomographic inversion involves the use of approximate Fresnel volumes and interfrequency smoothing constraints to stabilize the results. In the last step, we determine a final 3-D velocity model using a node-based Monte Carlo 1-D dispersion curve inversion. The reliability of the final 3-D velocity model is examined by spatial and depth resolution analysis, as well as by inversion for different model parameterizations. The obtained results are in very good agreement with previous findings from seismic and other geophysical methods. The new 3-D VS model provides additional structural constraints for the shallow sediments and bedrock structure of the northern Mygdonia basin up to the depth of similar to 200-250 m. Present work results suggest that the migration of ambient tomography techniques from large scales (tens or hundreds of km) to local scales (few hundred meters) is possible but cannot be used as a black box technique for 3-D modeling and detailed geotechnical site characterization.
In this study, we suggest a novel approach for the retrieval of regional moment tensors for earthquakes with small to moderate magnitudes. The first modification is the combined inversion of broadband and short-period waveform data. The broadband waveforms are inverted in a frequency range suitable for surface waves, whereas for the short-period data a frequency range suitable for body waves is applied. The second modification is the use of first-motion body-wave polarities to select the most probable solution out of all solutions from inversion. To combine three different criteria for selecting the most probable solution (i.e., residual from inversion, double-couple content of solution, number of nonmatching first-motion body-wave polarities), the L2 norm is applied to the normalized parameters. We chose five earthquakes within the Alborz mountains, Iran, as a case study (3.1 <= M-w <= 4.1). In this area, several factors exacerbate the difficulty of performing inversion for moment tensors, for example, a heterogeneous station network and large azimuthal gaps. We have demonstrated that our approach supplies reliable moment tensors when inversion from broadband data alone fails. In one case, we successfully retrieved a stable solution from short-period waveform data alone. Thus, our approach enables successful determination of seismic moment tensors wherever a sparse network of broadband stations has thus far prevented it.
The Ceres earthquake of 29 September 1969 is the largest known earthquake in southern Africa. Digitized analog recordings from Worldwide Standardized Seismographic Network stations (Powell and Fries, 1964) are used to retrieve the point source moment tensor and the most likely centroid depth of the event using full waveform modeling. A scalar seismic moment of 2.2-2.4 x 10(18) N center dot m corresponding to a moment magnitude of 6.2-6.3 is found. The analysis confirms the pure strike-slip mechanism previously determined from onset polarities by Green and Bloch (1971). Overall good agreement with the fault orientation previously estimated from local aftershock recordings is found. The centroid depth can be constrained to be less than 15 km. In a second analysis step, we use a higher order moment tensor based inversion scheme for simple extended rupture models to constrain the lateral fault dimensions. We find rupture propagated unilaterally for 4.7 s from east-southwest to west-northwest for about 17 km ( average rupture velocity of about 3: 1 km/s).
We have redetermined focal depths of moderate and major earthquakes with reported lower-crust and upper-mantle depths that have occurred in Tien-Shan, since the availability of broad-band array data. Records of earthquakes at global arrays have been used for identification and modelling of depth phases in order to make accurate estimation of focal depths. Our results show that half of the purportedly deep earthquakes are indeed originating from depths attributable to middle-crust and lower-crust regions. Also one exceptional event in the northern foreland of Tien-Shan in Junggar Basin is located in the upper mantle at the depth of 64 km. Such unusually deep earthquakes for intraplate continental tectonic domain are all located at the margin of Tien-Shan with its adjacent stable blocks and at least some of them have occurred where the brittle behaviour of continental rocks is not highly expected. The reverse mechanisms of all these earthquakes and their proximity to formerly subducting and later colliding and underplating stable blocks and their interactions with overlying Tien-Shan are clues to explain this extremity.
We track a bilateral rupture propagation lasting similar to 160 s, with its dominant branch rupturing northeastwards at about 3 kms(-1). The area of maximum energy emission is offset from the maximum coseismic slip but matches the zone where most plate interface aftershocks occur. Along dip, energy is preferentially released from two disconnected interface belts, and a distinct jump from the shallower belt to the deeper one is visible after about 20 s from the onset. However, both belts keep on being active until the end of the rupture. These belts approximately match the position of the interface aftershocks, which are split into two clusters of events at different depths, thus suggesting the existence of a repeated transition from stick-slip to creeping frictional regime.
Soils in various places of the Panama Canal Watershed feature a low saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at shallow depth, which promotes overland-flow generation and associated flashy catchment responses. In undisturbed forests of these areas, overland flow is concentrated in flow lines that extend the channel network and provide hydrological connectivity between hillslopes and streams. To understand the dynamics of overland-flow connectivity, as well as the impact of connectivity on catchment response, we studied an undisturbed headwater catchment by monitoring overland-flow occurrence in all flow lines and discharge, suspended sediment, and total phosphorus at the catchment outlet. We find that connectivity is strongly influenced by seasonal variation in antecedent wetness and can develop even under light rainfall conditions. Connectivity increased rapidly as rainfall frequency increased, eventually leading to full connectivity and surficial drainage of entire hillslopes. Connectivity was nonlinearly related to catchment response. However, additional information on factors such as overland-flow volume would be required to constrain relationships between connectivity, stormflow, and the export of suspended sediment and phosphorus. The effort to monitor those factors would be substantial, so we advocate applying the established links between rain event characteristics, drainage network expansion by flow lines, and catchment response for predictive modeling and catchment classification in forests of the Panama Canal Watershed and in similar regions elsewhere.
Whilst sophisticated multiphase fluid flow models are routinely employed to understand behaviour of oil and gas reservoirs, high-resolution data describing the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of rock characteristics is rarely available to populate models. We present a new approach to developing a quantitative understanding of the effect of individual controls on the distribution of petrophysical properties and their impact on fluid flow. This involves simulating flow through high-detail permeability architectures generated by forward modelling of the coupled depositional-diagenetic evolution of isolated platforms using CARB3D(+). This workflow is exemplified by an investigation of interactions between subsidence and climate, and their expression in spatial variations in reservoir quality in an isolated carbonate platform of similar size and subsidence history to the Triassic Latemar Platform.
Dissolutional lowering during subaerial exposure controls platform-top graininess via platform top hydrodynamics during the subsequent transgression. Dissolved carbonate is reprecipitated as cements by percolating meteoric waters. However, associated subsurface meteoric dissolution generates significant secondary porosity under a more humid climate. Slower subsidence enhances diagenetic overprinting during repeated exposure events. Single-phase streamline simulations show how early diagenesis develops more permeable fairways within the finer-grained condensed units that can act as thief zones for flow from the grainier but less diagenetically altered cyclic units.
Numerical simulation of fluid-flow processes in a 3D high-resolution carbonate reservoir analogue
(2014)
A high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) outcrop model of a Jurassic carbonate ramp was used in order to perform a series of detailed and systematic flow simulations. The aim of this study was to test the impact of small- and large-scale geological features on reservoir performance and oil recovery. The digital outcrop model contains a wide range of sedimentological, diagenetic and structural features, including discontinuity surfaces, shoal bodies, mud mounds, oyster bioherms and fractures. Flow simulations are performed for numerical well testing and secondary oil recovery. Numerical well testing enables synthetic but systematic pressure responses to be generated for different geological features observed in the outcrops. This allows us to assess and rank the relative impact of specific geological features on reservoir performance. The outcome documents that, owing to the realistic representation of matrix heterogeneity, most diagenetic and structural features cannot be linked to a unique pressure signature. Instead, reservoir performance is controlled by subseismic faults and oyster bioherms acting as thief zones. Numerical simulations of secondary recovery processes reveal strong channelling of fluid flow into high-permeability layers as the primary control for oil recovery. However, appropriate reservoir-engineering solutions, such as optimizing well placement and injection fluid, can reduce channelling and increase oil recovery.
Carbonate reservoirs pose significant challenges for reservoir modelling and flow prediction due to heterogeneities in rock properties, limits to seismic resolution and limited constraints on subsurface data. Hence, a systematic and streamlined approach is needed to construct geological models and to quickly evaluate key sensitivities in the flow models. This paper discusses results from a reservoir analogue study of a Middle Jurassic carbonate ramp in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco that has stratigraphic and structural similarities to selected Middle East reservoirs. For this purpose, high-resolution geological models were constructed from the integration of sedimentological, diagenetic and structural studies in the area. The models are approximately 1200 x 1250 m in size, and only faults (no fractures) with offsets greater than 1 m are included. Novel methods have been applied to test the response of flow simulations to the presence or absence of specific geological features, including proxies for hardgrounds, stylolites, patch reefs, and mollusc banks, as a way to guide the level of detail that is suitable for modelling objectives. Our general conclusion from the study is that the continuity of any geological feature with extreme permeability (high or low) has the most significant impact on flow.
The subsurface upper Palaeozoic sedimentary successions of the Loppa High half-graben and the Finnmark platform in the Norwegian Barents Sea (southwest Barents Sea) were investigated using 2D/3D seismic datasets combined with well and core data. These sedimentary successions represent a case of mixed siliciclastic-carbonates depositional systems, which formed during the earliest phase of the Atlantic rifting between Greenland and Norway. During the Carboniferous and Permian the southwest part of the Barents Sea was located along the northern margin of Pangaea, which experienced a northward drift at a speed of ~2–3 mm per year. This gradual shift in the paleolatitudinal position is reflected by changes in regional climatic conditions: from warm-humid in the early Carboniferous, changing to warm-arid in the middle to late Carboniferous and finally to colder conditions in the late Permian. Such changes in paleolatitude and climate have resulted in major changes in the style of sedimentation including variations in the type of carbonate factories. The upper Palaeozoic sedimentary succession is composed of four major depositional units comprising chronologically the Billefjorden Group dominated by siliciclastic deposition in extensional tectonic-controlled wedges, the Gipsdalen Group dominated by warm-water carbonates, stacked buildups and evaporites, the Bjarmeland Group characterized by cool-water carbonates as well as by the presence of buildup networks, and the Tempelfjorden Group characterized by fine-grained sedimentation dominated by biological silica production. In the Loppa High, the integration of a core study with multi-attribute seismic facies classification allowed highlighting the main sedimentary unconformities and mapping the spatial extent of a buried paleokarst terrain. This geological feature is interpreted to have formed during a protracted episode of subaerial exposure occurring between the late Palaeozoic and middle Triassic. Based on seismic sequence stratigraphy analysis the palaeogeography in time and space of the Loppa High basin was furthermore reconstructed and a new and more detailed tectono-sedimentary model for this area was proposed. In the Finnmark platform area, a detailed core analysis of two main exploration wells combined with key 2D seismic sections located along the main depositional profile, allowed the evaluation of depositional scenarios for the two main lithostratigraphic units: the Ørn Formation (Gipsdalen Group) and the Isbjørn Formation (Bjarmeland Group). During the mid-Sakmarian, two major changes were observed between the two formations including (1) the variation in the type of the carbonate factories, which is interpreted to be depth-controlled and (2) the change in platform morphology, which evolved from a distally steepened ramp to a homoclinal ramp. The results of this study may help supporting future reservoirs characterization of the upper Palaeozoic units in the Barents Sea, particularly in the Loppa High half-graben and the Finmmark platform area.
In situ UV laser spot Ar-40/Ar-39 analyses of distinct phengite types in eclogite-facies rocks from the Sesia-Lanzo Zone (Western Alps, Italy) were combined with SIMS boron isotope analyses as well as boron (B) and lithium (Li) concentration data to link geochronological information with constraints on fluid-rock interaction. In weakly deformed samples, apparent Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of phengite cores span a range of similar to 20 Ma, but inverse isochrons define two distinct main high-pressure (HP) phengite core crystallization periods of 88-82 and 77-74 Ma, respectively. The younger cores have on average lower B contents (similar to 36 mu g/g) than the older ones (similar to 43-48 mu g/g), suggesting that loss of B and resetting of the Ar isotopic system were related. Phengite cores have variable delta B-11 values (-18 parts per thousand to -10 parts per thousand), indicating the lack of km scale B homogenization during HP crystallization.
Overprinted phengite rims in the weakly deformed samples generally yield younger apparent Ar-40/Ar-39 ages than the respective cores. They also show variable effects of heterogeneous excess 40 Ar incorporation and Ar loss. One acceptable inverse isochron age of 77.1 +/- 1.1 Ma for rims surrounding older cores (82.6 +/- 0.6 Ma) overlaps with the second period of core crystallization. Compared to the phengite cores, all rims have lower B and Li abundances but similar delta B-11 values (-15 parts per thousand to -9 parts per thousand), reflecting internal redistribution of B and Li and internal fluid buffering of the B isotopic composition during rim growth. The combined observation of younger Ar-40/Ar-39 ages and boron loss, yielding comparable values of both parameters only in cores and rims of different samples, is best explained by a selective metasomatic overprint. In low permeability samples, this overprint caused recrystallization of phengite rims, whereas higher permeability in other samples led to complete recrystallization of phengite grains.
Strongly deformed samples from a several km long, blueschist-facies shear zone contain mylonitic phengite that forms a tightly clustered group of relatively young apparent Ar-40/Ar-39 ages (64.7-68.8 Ma), yielding an inverse isochron age of 65.0 +/- 3.0 Ma. Almost complete B and Li removal in mylonitic phengite is due to leaching into a fluid. The B isotopic composition is significantly heavier than in phengites from the weakly deformed samples, indicating an external control by a high-delta B-11 fluid (delta B-11 = + 7 +/- 4 parts per thousand). We interpret this result as reflecting phengite recrystallization related to deformation and associated fluid flow in the shear zone. This event also caused partial resetting of the Ar isotope system and further B loss in more permeable rocks of the adjacent unit. We conclude that geochemical evidence for pervasive or limited fluid flow is crucial for the interpretation of Ar-40/Ar-39 data in partially metasomatized rocks.
The Pamir is the western continuation of Tibet and the site of some of the highest mountains on Earth, yet comparatively little is known about its crustal and tectonic evolution and erosional history. Both Tibet and the Pamir are characterized by similar terranes and sutures that can be correlated along strike, although the details of such correlations remain controversial. The erosional history of the Pamir with respect to Tibet is significantly different as well: Most of Tibet has been characterized by internal drainage and low erosion rates since the early Cenozoic; in contrast, the Pamir is externally drained and topographically more rugged, and it has a strongly asymmetric drainage pattern. Here, we report 700 new U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotope determinations and >300 Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from detrital minerals derived from rivers in China draining the northeastern Pamir and >1000 apatite fission-track (AFT) ages from 12 rivers in Tajikistan and China draining the northeastern, central, and southern Pamir. U-Pb ages from rivers draining the northeastern Pamir are Mesozoic to Proterozoic and show affinity with the Songpan-Ganzi terrane of northern Tibet, whereas rivers draining the central and southern Pamir are mainly Mesozoic and show some affinity with the Qiangtang terrane of central Tibet. The epsilon(Hf) values are juvenile, between 15 and -5, for the northeastern Pamir and juvenile to moderately evolved, between 10 and -40, for the central and southern Pamir. Detrital mica Ar-40/Ar-39 ages for the northeastern Pamir (eastern drainages) are generally older than ages from the central and southern Pamir (western drainages), indicating younger or lower-magnitude exhumation of the northeastern Pamir compared to the central and southern Pamir. AFT data show strong Miocene-Pliocene signals at the orogen scale, indicating rapid erosion at the regional scale. Despite localized exhumation of the Mustagh-Ata and Kongur-Shan domes, average erosion rates for the northeastern Pamir are up to one order of magnitude lower than erosion rates recorded by the central and southern Pamir. Deeper exhumation of the central and southern Pamir is associated with tectonic exhumation of central Pamir domes. Deeper exhumation coincides with western and asymmetric drainages and with higher precipitation today, suggesting an orographic effect on exhumation. A younging-southward trend of cooling ages may reflect tectonic processes. Overall, cooling ages derived from the Pamir are younger than ages recorded in Tibet, indicating younger and higher magnitudes of erosion in the Pamir.
Modification of the landscape by glacial erosion reflects the dynamic interplay of climate through temperature, precipitation, and prevailing wind direction, and tectonics through rock uplift and exhumation rate, lithology, and range and fault geometry. We investigate these relationships in the northeast Pamir Mountains using mapping and dating of moraines and terraces to determine the glacial history. We analyze modem glacial morphology to determine glacier area, spacing, headwall relief, debris cover, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) using the area x altitude balance ratio (AABR), toe-to-headwall altitude ratio (THAR) and toe-to-summit altitude method (TSAM) for 156 glaciers and compare this to lithologic, tectonic, and climatic data We observe a pronounced asymmetry in glacial ELA, area, debris cover, and headwall relief that we interpret to reflect both structural and climatic control: glaciers on the downwind (eastern) side of the range are larger, more debris covered, have steeper headwalls, and tend to erode headward, truncating the smaller glaciers of the upwind, fault-controlled side of the range. We explain this by the transfer of moisture deep into the range as wind-blown or avalanched snow and by limitations imposed on glacial area on the upwind side of the range by the geometry of the Kongur extensional system (KES). The correspondence between rapid exhumation along the KES and maxima in glacier debris cover and headwall relief and minimums in all measures of ELA suggest that taller glacier headwalls develop in a response to more rapid exhumation rates. However, we find that glaciers in the Muji valley did not extend beyond the range front until at least 43 ka, in contrast to extensive glaciation since 300 ka in the south around the high peaks, a pattern which does not clearly reflect uplift rate. Instead, the difference in glacial history and the presence of large peaks (Muztagh Ata and Kongur Shan) with flanking glaciers likely reflects lithologic control (i.e., the location of crustal gneiss domes) and the formation of peaks that rise above the ELA and escape the glacial buzzsaw. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Cenozoic magnetostratigraphy and magnetic properties of the southern Issyk-Kul basin, Kyrgyzstan
(2014)
We present paleomagnetic data from the northern flank of the Tianshan range, southeast of Lake Issyk-Kul (Kyrgyzstan). 613 cores were collected in two parallel sections with a total thickness of 960 m (Chon Kyzylsuu, CK) and 990 m Jeti Oguz, JO), as well as 48 cores at six sites in a nearby anticline. Rock magnetic analyses identify both magnetite and hematite in the fluvial-lacustrine sediments. The concentration of both minerals, the magnetite:hematite ratio, and the average magnetite grain size increase upward in both sections. Anisotropy of anhysteretic remanent magnetization defines a tectonic fabric with sub-horizontal maximum axes that parallel the strike direction together with intermediate and minimum axes that streak out about a great circle orthogonal to the maximum axes suggestive of a tectonic fabric emplaced during folding. Stepwise thermal demagnetization isolates interpretable magnetization components in 284 samples that define 26 polarity chrons in CK and 19 in JO. A positive fold test, dual polarities and systematic changes in rock-magnetic parameters with depth suggest that the high temperature magnetization component was acquired coevally with deposition. An age model based on a visual magnetostratigraphic correlation of both sections with the geomagnetic polarity time scale defines absolute ages from 26.0 to 13.3 Ma, with a fairly constant sedimentation rate of 9-10 cm/ka. A correlation based on a numerical algorithm arrives at a slightly different conclusion, with deposition ages from 25.2 to 11.0 Ma and sedimentation rates from 5 to 8 cm/ka. In comparison with sedimentation rates found at other magnetostratigraphic sections in the Tianshan realm, we infer that the sedimentary record in this part of the Issyk-Kul Basin precedes the more rapid phase of uplift of the Kyrgyz Tianshan. The onset of deposition and concomitant erosion of the adjacent Terskey Range is in good agreement with independent assessments of the exhumation history of this mountain range, with erosion increasing at 25-20 Ma and accelerating after 11-13 Ma. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Differential exhumation in the Puna Plateau and Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina is controlled by inherited paleostructures and resulting paleotopography related to the Cretaceous Salta Rift paleomargins. The Ceno zoic deformation front related to the development of the Andean retro-arc orogenic system is generally associated with >4 km of exhumation, which is recorded by Cenozoic apatite fi ssion-track (AFT) and (U-Th-[Sm])/He ages (He ages) in the Eastern Cordillera of NW Argentina. New AFT ages from the top of the Nevado de Cachi document Oligocene (ca. 28 Ma) cooling, which, combined with existing data, indicates exhumation of this range between ca. 28 Ma and ca. 14 Ma. However, some of the highest ranges in the Eastern Cordillera preserve Cretaceous ages indicative of limited Cenozoic exhumation. Samples collected from an similar to 3-km-elevation transect along the northern part of the Sierra de Quilmes paleorift fl ank (Laguna Brava) show AFT ages between ca. 80 and ca. 50 Ma and He ages between ca. 45 and ca. 10 Ma. Another set of samples from an similar to 1-km-elevation transect farther to the southwest (La Quebrada) shows Cretaceous AFT ages between ca. 116 Ma and ca. 76 Ma, and mainly Cretaceous He ages, in agreement with AFT data. Analysis of existing AFT and He ages from the area once occupied by the Salta Rift reveals a pattern characterized by Cretaceous ages along paleorift highs and Cenozoic ages within paleorift hanging-wall basins and later foreland basin depocenters. This pattern is interrupted by the Sierras Pampeanas at similar to 28 degrees S, which record mid-Cenozoic ages. Our data are consistent with a complex inherited pattern of pre-Andean paleostructures, likely associated with paleotopography, which was beveled by the Cenozoic regional foreland basin and reactivated during the late Neogene (ca. <10 Ma), strongly controlling the magnitude of Cenozoic uplift and exhumation and thus cooling age distribution. This, combined with variable lithologic erodibility, resulted in an irregular distribution of themochronological ages.
New low-temperature thermochronological data from 80 samples in eastern Kyrgyzstan are combined with previously published data from 61 samples to constrain exhumation in a number of mountain ranges in the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan. All sampled ranges are found to have a broadly consistent Cenozoic exhumation history, characterized by initially low cooling rates (<1 degrees C/Myr) followed by a series of increases in exhumation that occurred diachronously across the region in the late Cenozoic that are interpreted to record the onset of deformation in different mountain ranges. Combined with geological estimates for the onset of proximal deformation, our data suggest that the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan started deforming in the late Oligocene-early Miocene, leading to the development of several, widely spaced mountain ranges separated by large intermontane basins. Subsequently, more ranges have been constructed in response to significant shortening increases across the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan, notably in the late Miocene. The order of range construction is interpreted to reflect variations in the susceptibility of inherited structures to reactivation. Reactivated structures are also shown to have significance along strike variations in fault vergence and displacement, which have influenced the development and growth of individual mountain ranges. Moreover, the timing of deformation allows the former extent of many intermontane basins that have since been partitioned to be inferred; this can be linked to the highly time-transgressive onset of late Cenozoic coarse clastic sedimentation.
The literature on the costing of mitigation measures for reducing impacts of natural hazards is rather fragmented. This paper provides a concise overview of the current state of knowledge in Europe on the costing of mitigation measures for the reduction of natural hazard risks (droughts, floods, storms and induced coastal hazards as well as alpine hazards) and identifies knowledge gaps and related research recommendations. Furthermore, it provides a taxonomy of related mitigation options, classifying them into nine categories: (1) management plans, land-use planning, and climate adaptation; (2) hazard modification; (3) infrastructure; (4) mitigation measures (stricto sensu); (5) communication in advance of events; (6) monitoring and early warning systems; (7) emergency response and evacuation; (8) financial incentives; and (9) risk transfer (including insurance). It is found that the costing of mitigation measures in European and in other countries has almost exclusively focused on estimating direct costs. A cost assessment framework that addresses a range of costs, possibly informed by multiple stakeholders, would provide more accurate estimates and could provide better guidance to decision makers. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Costing natural hazards
(2014)
Comparing thermal wave function methods for multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree simulations
(2014)
We compare two methods for creating stochastic temperature wave functions that can be used for Multi-Configuration Time-Dependent Hartree (MCTDH) simulations. In the first method, the MCTDH coefficients are chosen randomly, while the other method uses a single Hartree product of random single-particle functions (SPFs). We find that using random SPFs dramatically improves convergence for a model system for surface sticking.
The study presents the first evidence of metamorphosed submarine ashes in the Edough Massif, in northeastern Algeria. It occurs below the greenschist-facies Tellian units that represent the thrusted Mesozoic to Eocene passive paleomargin of northern Africa deposited on thinned continental crust. The metamorphic complex consists of tectonically superposed units composed of gneisses (lower unit) and micaschists (upper unit). At the Cap de Garde, these units enclose an "intermediate unit" composed of micaschists and meter-thick layers of marbles, which are sometimes intercalated with amphibolites. The latter occur as discontinuous small lenses and layers. The amphibolites are parallel to the primary bedding of the marbles and the main foliation. Chemical markers and field observations indicate that they are metamorphic equivalents of basic igneous rocks. The lenticular character, low thickness and multiple intercalations with marine sediments and the unusual high lithium concentrations suggest subaqueous near-source basaltic ash-fall deposits in a marine environment. (C) 2014 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Magmatism forming the Central Anatolian Volcanic Province of Cappadocia, central Turkey, records the last phase of Neotethyan subduction after similar to 11 Ma. Thirteen large calc-alkaline ignimbrite sheets form marker bands within the volcano-sedimentary succession (the Urgup Formation) and provide a robust chronostratigraphy for paleoecologic evaluation of the interleaved paleosols. This paper evaluates the chronologic record in the context of the radiometric, magnetostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic controls. Previous inconsistencies relating primarily to K/Ar evidence were reason for the initiation of an integrated study which includes Ar-40/Ar-39 dating, palaeomagnetic and stratigraphic evidence. The newly determined Ar-40/Ar-39-ages (Lepetit, 2010) are in agreement with Ar/Ar and U/Pb data meanwhile published by Pauquette and Le Pennec (2012) and Aydar et al. (2012). The Ar-40/Ar-39-ages restrict the end of the Urgup Formation to the late Miocene. The paleosol sequence enclosed by the ignimbrites is thus restricted to the late Miocene, the most intense formation of pedogene calcretes correlating with the Messinian Salinity Crisis.
Sedimentary basin fills along the windward flanks of orogenic plateaus are valuable archives of paleoenvironmental change with the potential to resolve the history of surface uplift and orographic barrier formation. The intermontane basins of the southern Central Andes contain thick successions of sedimentary material that are commonly interbedded with datable volcanic ashes. We relate variations in the hydrogen isotopic composition of hydrated volcanic glass (delta D-g) of Neogene to Quaternary fills in the semiarid intermontane Humahuaca Basin (Eastern Cordillera, northwest Argentina) to spatiotemporal changes in topography and associated orographic effects. delta D values from volcanic glass in the basin strata (-117 parts per thousand to -98 parts per thousand) show two main trends that accompany observed tectonosedimentary events in the study area. Between 6.0 and 3.5 Ma, delta D-g values decrease by similar to 17 parts per thousand; this is associated with surface uplift in the catchment area. After 3.5 Ma, delta D-g values show abrupt deuterium enrichment, which we associate with (1) the attainment of threshold elevations for blocking moisture transport in the basin-bounding ranges to the east, and (2) the onset of semiarid conditions in the basin. Such orographic barriers throughout the eastern flanks of the Central Andes have impeded moisture transport into the orogen interior; this has likely helped maintain aridity and internal drainage conditions on the adjacent Andean Plateau.
A valley-filling ignimbrite re-exposed through subsequent river incision at the southern margin of the Andean (Puna) plateau preserves pristine geological evidence of pre-late Miocene palaeotopography in the north western Argentine Andes. Our new Ar-40/(39) Ar dating of the Las Papas Ignimbrites yields a plateau age of 9.24 +/- 0.03 Ma, indicating valley-relief and orographic-barrier conditions comparable to the present-day. A later infill of Plio-Pleistocene coarse conglomerates has been linked to wetter conditions, but resulted in no additional net incision of the Las Papas valley, considering that the base of the ignimbrite remains unexposed in the valley bottom. Our observations indicate that at least 550 m of local plateau margin relief (and likely > 2 km) existed by 9 Ma at the southern Puna margin, which likely aided the efficiency of the orographic barrier to rainfall along the eastern and south eastern flanks of the Puna and causes aridity in the plateau interior.
This study explores the potential for regions to shift to a local food supply using food self-sufficiency (FSS) as an indicator. We considered a region food self-sufficient when its total calorie production is enough to meet its demand. For future scenarios, we considered population growth, dietary changes, improved feed conversion efficiency, climate change, and crop yield increments. Starting at the 5' resolution, we investigated FSS from the lowest administrative levels to continents. Globally, about 1.9 billion people are self-sufficient within their 5' grid, while about 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require cross-continental agricultural trade in 2000. By closing yield gaps, these regions can achieve FSS, which also reduces international trade and increases a self-sufficient population in a 5' grid to 2.9 billion. The number of people depending on international trade will vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. Climate change may increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4% to 16%.
Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability
(2014)
Climate change will have adverse impacts on many different sectors of society, with manifold consequences for human livelihoods and well-being. However, a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable, making it difficult to determine the extent of such impacts. Climate impact analyses are often limited to individual sectors (e.g. food or water) and employ sector-specific target measures, while systematic linkages to general livelihood conditions remain unexplored. Further, recent multi-model assessments have shown that uncertainties in projections of climate impacts deriving from climate and impact models, as well as greenhouse gas scenarios, are substantial, posing an additional challenge in linking climate impacts with livelihood conditions. This article first presents a methodology to consistently measure what is referred to here as AHEAD (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development). Based on a trans-disciplinary sample of concepts addressing human well-being and livelihoods, the approach measures the adequacy of conditions of 16 elements. We implement the method at global scale, using results from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to show how changes in water availability affect the fulfilment of AHEAD at national resolution. In addition, AHEAD allows for the uncertainty of climate and impact model projections to be identified and differentiated. We show how the approach can help to put the substantial inter-model spread into the context of country-specific livelihood conditions by differentiating where the uncertainty about water scarcity is relevant with regard to livelihood conditions - and where it is not. The results indicate that livelihood conditions are compromised by water scarcity in 34 countries. However, more often, AHEAD fulfilment is limited through other elements. The analysis shows that the water-specific uncertainty ranges of the model output are outside relevant thresholds for AHEAD for 65 out of 111 countries, and therefore do not contribute to the overall uncertainty about climate change impacts on livelihoods. In 46 of the countries in the analysis, water-specific uncertainty is relevant to AHEAD. The AHEAD method presented here, together with first results, forms an important step towards making scientific results more applicable for policy decisions.
Water is an essential input to the majority of human activities. Often, access to sufficient water resources is limited by quality and infrastructure aspects, rather than by resource availability alone, and each activity has different requirements regarding the nature of these aspects. This paper develops an integrated approach to assess the adequacy of water resources for the three major water users: the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors. Additionally, we include environmental water requirements. We first outline the main determinants of water adequacy for each sector. Subsequently, we present an integrated approach using fuzzy logic, which allows assessing sector-specific as well as overall water adequacy. We implement the approach in two case study settings to exemplify the main features of the approach. Using results from two climate models and two forcing RCPs (representative concentration pathways), as well as population projections, we further assess the impacts of climate change in combination with population growth on the adequacy of water resources. The results provide an important step forward in determining the most relevant factors, impeding adequate access to water, which remains an important challenge in many regions of the world. The methodology allows one to directly identify the factors that are most decisive in determining the adequacy of water in each region, pointing towards the most efficient intervention points to improve conditions. Our findings underline the fact that, in addition to water volumes, water quality is a limitation for all sectors and, especially for the environmental sector, high levels of pollution are a threat to water adequacy.
The monsoon is an important component of the Earth’s climate system. It played a vital role in the development and sustenance of the largely agro-based economy in India. A better understanding of past variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is necessary to assess its nature under global warming scenarios. Instead, our knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns of past ISM strength, as inferred from proxy records, is limited due to the lack of high-resolution paleo-hydrological records from the core monsoon domain.
In this thesis I aim to improve our understanding of Holocene ISM variability from the core ‘monsoon zone’ (CMZ) in India. To achieve this goal, I tried to understand modern and thereafter reconstruct Holocene monsoonal hydrology, by studying surface sediments and a high-resolution sedimentary record from the saline-alkaline Lonar crater lake, central India. My approach relies on analyzing stable carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios from sedimentary lipid biomarkers to track past hydrological changes.
In order to evaluate the relationship of the modern ecosystem and hydrology of the lake I studied the distribution of lipid biomarkers in the modern ecosystem and compared it to lake surface sediments. The major plants from dry deciduous mixed forest type produced a greater amount of leaf wax n-alkanes and a greater fraction of n-C31 and n-C33 alkanes relative to n-C27 and n-C29. Relatively high average chain length (ACL) values (29.6–32.8) for these plants seem common for vegetation from an arid and warm climate. Additionally I found that human influence and subsequent nutrient supply result in increased lake primary productivity, leading to an unusually high concentration of tetrahymanol, a biomarker for salinity and water column stratification, in the nearshore sediments. Due to this inhomogeneous deposition of tetrahymanol in modern sediments, I hypothesize that lake level fluctuation may potentially affect aquatic lipid biomarker distributions in lacustrine sediments, in addition to source changes.
I reconstructed centennial-scale hydrological variability associated with changes in the intensity of the ISM based on a record of leaf wax and aquatic biomarkers and their stable carbon (δ13C) and hydrogen (δD) isotopic composition from a 10 m long sediment core from the lake. I identified three main periods of distinct hydrology over the Holocene in central India. The period between 10.1 and 6 cal. ka BP was likely the wettest during the Holocene. Lower ACL index values (29.4 to 28.6) of leaf wax n-alkanes and their negative δ13C values (–34.8‰ to –27.8‰) indicated the dominance of woody C3 vegetation in the catchment, and negative δDwax (average for leaf wax n-alkanes) values (–171‰ to –147‰) argue for a wet period due to an intensified monsoon. After 6 cal. ka BP, a gradual shift to less negative δ13C values (particularly for the grass derived n-C31) and appearance of the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol, generally considered as a marker for salinity and water column stratification, marked the onset of drier conditions. At 5.1 cal. ka BP increasing flux of leaf wax n-alkanes along with the highest flux of tetrahymanol indicated proximity of the lakeshore to the center due to a major lake level decrease. Rapid fluctuations in abundance of both terrestrial and aquatic biomarkers between 4.8 and 4 cal. ka BP indicated an unstable lake ecosystem, culminating in a transition to arid conditions. A pronounced shift to less negative δ13C values, in particular for n-C31 (–25.2‰ to –22.8‰), over this period indicated a change of dominant vegetation to C4 grasses. Along with a 40‰ increase in leaf wax n-alkane δD values, which likely resulted from less rainfall and/or higher plant evapotranspiration, I interpret this period to reflect the driest conditions in the region during the last 10.1 ka. This transition led to protracted late Holocene arid conditions and the establishment of a permanently saline lake. This is supported by the high abundance of tetrahymanol. A late Holocene peak of cyanobacterial biomarker input at 1.3 cal. ka BP might represent an event of lake eutrophication, possibly due to human impact and the onset of cattle/livestock farming in the catchment.
The most intriguing feature of the mid-Holocene driest period was the high amplitude and rapid fluctuations in δDwax values, probably due to a change in the moisture source and/or precipitation seasonality. I hypothesize that orbital induced weakening of the summer solar insolation and associated reorganization of the general atmospheric circulation were responsible for an unstable hydroclimate in the mid-Holocene in the CMZ.
My findings shed light onto the sequence of changes during mean state changes of the monsoonal system, once an insolation driven threshold has been passed, and show that small changes in solar insolation can be associated to major environmental changes and large fluctuations in moisture source, a scenario that may be relevant with respect to future changes in the ISM system.