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During eruptive activity of andesitic stratovolcanoes, the extrusion of lava domes, their collapse and intermittent explosions are common volcanic hazards. Many lava domes grow in a preferred direction, in turn affecting the direction of lava flows and pyroclastic density currents. Access to active lava domes is difficult and hazardous, so detailed data characterizing lava dome growth are typically limited, keeping the processes controlling the directionality of extrusions unclear. Here we combine TerraSAR-X satellite radar observations with high-resolution airborne photogrammetry to assess morphological changes, and perform finite element modeling to investigate the impact of loading stress on shallow magma ascent directions associated with lava dome extrusion and crater formation at Volcan de Colima, Mexico. The TerraSAR-X data, acquired in similar to 1-m resolution spotlight mode, enable us to derive a chronology of the eruptive processes from intensity-based time-lapse observations of the general crater and dome evolution. The satellite images are complemented by close-range airborne photos, processed by the Structure-from-Motion workflow. This allows the derivation of high-resolution digital elevation models, providing insight into detailed loading and unloading features. During the observation period from Jan-2013 to Feb-2016, we identify a dominantly W-directed dome growth and lava flow production until Jan-2015. In Feb-2015, following the removal of the active summit dome, the surface crater widened and elongated along a NE-SW axis. Later in May-2015, a new dome grew toward the SW of the crater while a separate vent developed in the NE of the crater, reflecting a change in the direction of magma ascent and possible conduit bifurcation. Finite element models show a significant stress change in agreement with the observed magma ascent direction changes in response to the changing surface loads, both for loading (dome growth) and unloading (crater forming excavation) cases. These results allow insight into shallow dome growth dynamics and the migration of magma ascent in response to changing volcano summit morphology. They further highlight the importance of detailed volcano summit morphology surveillance, as changes in direction or location of dome extrusion may have major implications regarding the directions of potential volcanic hazards, such as pyroclastic density currents generated by dome collapse.
In this paper we report a rare and fortunate event of fast magnetosonic (MS, also called equatorial noise) waves modulated by compressional ultralow frequency (ULF) waves measured by Van Allen Probes. The characteristics of MS waves, ULF waves, proton distribution, and their potential correlations are analyzed. The results show that ULF waves can modulate the energetic ring proton distribution and in turn modulate the MS generation. Furthermore, the variation of MS intensities is attributed to not only ULF wave activities but also the variation of background parameters, for example, number density. The results confirm the opinion that MS waves are generated by proton ring distribution and propose a new modulation phenomenon.
This study aims to identify the best-performing site characterization proxy alternative and complementary to the conventional 30 m average shear-wave velocity V-S30, as well as the optimal combination of proxies in characterizing linear site response. Investigated proxies include T-0 (site fundamental period obtained from earthquake horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios), V-Sz (measured average shear-wave velocities to depth z, z = 5, 10, 20 and 30 m), Z(0.8) and Z(1.0) (measured site depths to layers having shear-wave velocity 0.8 and 1.0 km/s, respectively), as well as Z(x-infer) (inferred site depths from a regional velocity model, x = 0.8 and 1.0, 1.5 and 2.5 km/s). To evaluate the performance of a site proxy or a combination, a total of 1840 surface-borehole recordings is selected from KiK-net database. Site amplifications are derived using surface-to-borehole response-, Fourier- and cross-spectral ratio techniques and then are compared across approaches. Next, the efficacies of 7 single-proxies and 11 proxy-pairs are quantified based on the site-to-site standard deviation of amplification residuals of observation about prediction using the proxy or the pair. Our results show that T-0 is the best-performing single-proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and V-Sz. Meanwhile, T-0 is also the best-performing proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and Z(x-infer) complementary to V-S30 in accounting for the residual amplification after V-S30-correction. Besides, T-0 alone can capture most of the site effects and should be utilized as the primary site indicator. Though (T-0, V-S30) is the best-performing proxy pair among (V-S30, T-0), (V-S30, Z(0.8)), (V-S30, Z(1.0)), (V-S30, Z(x-infer)) and (T-0, V-Sz), it is only slightly better than (T-0, V-S20). Considering both efficacy and engineering utility, the combination of T-0 (primary) and V-S20 (secondary) is recommended. Further study is needed to test the performances of various proxies on sites in deep sedimentary basins.
In the Next Generation Attenuation West2 (NGA-West2) project, a 3D subsurface structure model (Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station [J-SHIS]) was queried to establish depths to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s velocity isosurfaces for sites without depth measurement in Japan. In this article, we evaluate the depth parameters in the J-SHIS velocity model by comparing them with their corresponding site-specific depth measurements derived from selected KiK-net velocity profiles. The comparison indicates that the J-SHIS model underestimates site depths at shallow sites and overestimates depths at deep sites. Similar issues were also identified in the southern California basin model. Our results also show that these underestimations and over-estimations have a potentially significant impact on ground-motion prediction using NGA-West2 ground-motion models (GMMs). Site resonant period may be considered as an alternative to depth parameter in the site term of a GMM.
The Kp index is a measure of the midlatitude global geomagnetic activity and represents short-term magnetic variations driven by solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere and the radiation belts. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast Kp, based their inferences on the recent history of Kp and on solar wind measurements at L1. In this study, we systematically test how different machine learning techniques perform on the task of nowcasting and forecasting Kp for prediction horizons of up to 12 hr. Additionally, we investigate different methods of machine learning and information theory for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model. We illustrate how these methods can be applied to select the most important inputs to a predictive model of Kp and to significantly reduce input dimensionality. We compare our best performing models based on a reduced set of optimal inputs with the existing models of Kp, using different test intervals, and show how this selection can affect model performance.
Paleogeographic reconstructions of terranes can greatly benefit from the provenance analysis of sediments. A series of Cenozoic basins provide key sedimentary archives for investigating the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the provenance of the sediments in these basins has never been constrained robustly. Here we report sedimentary petrological and detrital zircon geochronological data from the Paleocene-Eocene Nangqian-Xialaxiu and Gongjue basins. Sandstone detrital modes and zircon morphology suggest that the samples collected in these two basins were sourced from recycled orogen. Detrital zircon geochronology indicates that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin are characterized by two distinct age populations at 220-280 Ma and 405-445 Ma. In contrast, three predominant age populations of 207-256 Ma, 423-445 Ma, and 1851-1868 Ma, and two subordinate age populations of similar to 50 Ma and similar to 2500 Ma, are recognized in the Gongjue Basin. Comparison with detrital zircon ages from the surrounding terranes suggests that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin come from the neighboring thrust belts, whereas sediments from the Gongjue Basin are predominantly derived from the distant Songpan-Ganzi Terrane with minor contribution from the surrounding areas. A three-stage Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is proposed. During the Paleocene, the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin appeared as a set of small intermontane sub-basins and received plentiful sediments from the neighboring mountain belts; during the Eocene, the Gongjue Basin kept a relatively low altitude and was a depression at the edge of a proto-Plateau; since the Oligocene, the Tibetan Plateau further uplifted and the marginal Gongjue Basin was involved in the Tibetan interior orogeny, indicating the eastward propagation of the Tibetan Plateau.
A number of sedimentary provenance studies have been undertaken in order to determine whether the palaeo-Red River was once a river of continental proportions into which the upper reaches of the Yangtze, Salween, Mekong, Irrawaddy, and Yarlung drained. We have assessed the evidence that the Yarlung originally flowed into the palaeo-Red river, and then sequentially into the Irrawaddy and Brahmaputra, connecting to the latter first via the Lohit and then the Siang. For this river system, we have integrated our new data from the Paleogene-Recent Irrawaddy drainage basin (detrital zircon U-Pb with Hf and fission track, rutile U-Pb, mica Ar-Ar, bulk rock Sr-Nd, and petrography) with previously published data, to produce a palaeodrainage model that is consistent with all datasets. In our model, the Yarlung never flowed into the Irrawaddy drainage: during the Paleogene, the Yarlung suture zone was an internally drained basin, and from Neogene times onwards the Yarlung drained into the Brahmaputra in the Bengal Basin. The Central Myanmar Basin, through which the Irrawaddy River flows today, received predominantly locally-derived detritus until the Middle Eocene, the Irrawaddy initiated as a through-going river draining the Mogok Metamorphic Belt and Bomi-Chayu granites to the north sometime in the Late Eocene to Early Oligocene, and the river was dominated by a stable MMB-dominated drainage throughout the Neogene to present day. Existing evidence does not support any connection between the Yarlung and the Red River in the past, but there is a paucity of suitable palaeo-Red River deposits with which to make a robust comparison. We argue that this limitation also precludes a robust assessment of a palaeo-connection between the Yangtze/ Salween/Mekong and the Red River; it is difficult to unequivocally interpret the recorded provenance changes as the result of specific drainage reorganisations. We highlight the palaeo-Red River deposits of the Hanoi Basin as a potential location for future research focus in view of the near-complete Cenozoic record of palaeo-Red River deposits at this location. A majority of previous studies consider that if a major continental-scale drainage ever existed at all, it fragmented early in the Cenozoic. Such a viewpoint would agree with the growing body of evidence from palaeoaltitude studies that large parts of SE Tibet were uplifted by this period. This then leads towards the intriguing question as to the mechanisms which caused the major period of river incision in the Miocene in this region.
We present new U-Pb LA-ICP-MS data from the Central Andean foreland basins combined with new and published stratigraphic information in order to reconstruct the Miocene fragmentation of the Andean foreland between 26 and 28 degrees S. The disruption of this foreland basin and the subsequent development of elevated intermountain basins have been the focus of several studies. However, the absence of temporal constraints in the Miocene to Pliocene sedimentary record of the low elevation Choromoro and Tucuman foreland basins has presented an obstacle for precise paleogeographic reconstructions. We describe 11 discontinuous stratigraphic sections and use the U-Pb LA-ICP-MS method to date 10 pyroclastic-bearing sediments in order to reconstruct the stratigraphic evolution of the Choromoro and Tucuman basins. We combine our results with published strati graphic and thermochronologic data from adjacent basins to present a refined Miocene paleogeographic model. In a first stage, a continuous Early Miocene foreland lacustrine basin developed, filling up the preexisting Paleogene topography. The second stage is characterized by basin unroofing around similar to 12 Ma; the easily eroded sedimentary cover was removed, leading to the uplift of the underlying basement rocks and the segmentation of the lacustrine system. In the third stage, relief increase took place after similar to 6 Ma due to the low erodibility of the basement blocks; as a result, stable fluvial systems developed. Progressive relief development caused pronounced unconformities in the basins and the development of proximal fluvial-gravitational depositional systems after 3 Ma. This model emphasizes on the relations between tectonics, climate, and erodibility, and their control on the evolution of the depositional systems and relief.
The task of downloading comprehensive datasets of event-based seismic waveforms has been made easier through the development of standardized webservices but is still highly nontrivial because the likelihood of temporary network failures or subtle data errors naturally increases when the amount of requested data is in the order of millions of relatively short segments. This is even more challenging because the typical workflow is not restricted to a single massive download but consists of fetching all possible available input data (e.g., with several repeated download executions) for a processing stage producing any desired user-defined output. Here, we present stream2segment, a highly customizable Python 2+3 package helping the user in the entire workflow of downloading, inspecting, and processing event-based seismic data by means of a relational database management system as archiving storage, which has clear performance and usability advantages, and an integrated processing subroutine requiring a configuration file and a single Python function to produce user-defined output. Stream2segment can also produce diagnostic maps or user-defined plots, which, unlike existing tools, do not require external software dependencies and are not static images but instead are interactive browser-based applications ideally suited for data inspection or annotation tasks and subsequent training of classifiers in foreseen supervised machine-learning applications. Stream2segment has already been used as a data quality tool for datasets within the European Integrated Data Archive and to create a weak-motion database (in the form of a so-called flat file) for the stable continental region of Europe in the context of the European Ground Shaking Intensity Model service, in turn an important building block for seismic hazard studies.
The marine sedimentary record contains unique information about the history of erosion, uplift and climate of the adjacent continent. Inverting this record has been the purpose of many numerical studies. However, limited attention has been given to linking continental erosion to marine sediment transport and deposition in large-scale surface process evolution models. Here we present a new numerical method for marine sediment transport and deposition that is directly coupled to a landscape evolution algorithm solving for the continental fluvial and hillslope erosion equations using implicit and O(N) algorithms. The new method takes into account the sorting of grain sizes (e.g., silt and sand) in the marine domain using a non-linear multiple grain-size diffusion equation and assumes that the sediment flux exported from the continental domain is proportional to the bathymetric slope. Specific transport coefficients and compaction factors are assumed for the two different grain sizes to simulate the stratigraphic architecture. The resulting set of equations is solved using an efficient (O(N) and implicit) algorithm. It can thus be used to invert stratigraphic geometries using a Bayesian approach that requires a large number of simulations. This new method is used to invert the sedimentary geometry of a natural example, the Ogooue Delta (Gabon), over the last similar to 5 Myr. The objective is to unravel the set of erosional histories of the adjacent continental domain compatible with the observed geometry of the offshore delta. For this, we use a Bayesian inversion scheme in which the misfit function is constructed by comparing four geometrical parameters between the natural and the simulated delta: the volume of sediments stored in the delta, the surface slope, the initial and the final shelf lengths. We find that the best-fit values of the transport coefficients for silt in the marine domain are in the range of 300 - 500 m(2)/yr, in agreement with previous studies on offshore diffusion. We also show that, in order to fit the sedimentary geometry, erosion rate on the continental domain must have increased by a factor of 6 to 8 since 5.3 Ma. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Design flood estimation is an essential part of flood risk assessment. Commonly applied are flood frequency analyses and design storm approaches, while the derived flood frequency using continuous simulation has been getting more attention recently. In this study, a continuous hydrological modelling approach on an hourly time scale, driven by a multi-site weather generator in combination with a -nearest neighbour resampling procedure, based on the method of fragments, is applied. The derived 100-year flood estimates in 16 catchments in Vorarlberg (Austria) are compared to (a) the flood frequency analysis based on observed discharges, and (b) a design storm approach. Besides the peak flows, the corresponding runoff volumes are analysed. The spatial dependence structure of the synthetically generated flood peaks is validated against observations. It can be demonstrated that the continuous modelling approach can achieve plausible results and shows a large variability in runoff volume across the flood events.
Alluvial and transport-limited bedrock rivers constitute the majority of fluvial systems on Earth. Their long profiles hold clues to their present state and past evolution. We currently possess first-principles-based governing equations for flow, sediment transport, and channel morphodynamics in these systems, which we lack for detachment-limited bedrock rivers. Here we formally couple these equations for transport-limited gravel-bed river long-profile evolution. The result is a new predictive relationship whose functional form and parameters are grounded in theory and defined through experimental data. From this, we produce a power-law analytical solution and a finite-difference numerical solution to long-profile evolution. Steady-state channel concavity and steepness are diagnostic of external drivers: concavity decreases with increasing uplift rate, and steepness increases with an increasing sediment-to-water supply ratio. Constraining free parameters explains common observations of river form: to match observed channel concavities, gravel-sized sediments must weather and fine - typically rapidly - and valleys typically should widen gradually. To match the empirical square-root width-discharge scaling in equilibrium-width gravel-bed rivers, downstream fining must occur. The ability to assign a cause to such observations is the direct result of a deductive approach to developing equations for landscape evolution.
Late Quaternary landscapes of unglaciated Beringia were largely shaped by ice-wedge polygon tundra. Ice Complex (IC) strata preserve such ancient polygon formations. Here we report on the Yukagir IC from Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island in northeastern Siberia and suggest that new radioisotope disequilibria (230Th/U) dates of the Yukagir IC peat confirm its formation during the Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 7a–c interglacial period. The preservation of the ice-rich Yukagir IC proves its resilience to last interglacial and late glacial–Holocene warming. This study compares the Yukagir IC to IC strata of MIS 5, MIS 3, and MIS 2 ages exposed on Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island. Besides high intrasedimental ice content and syngenetic ice wedges intersecting silts, sandy silts, the Yukagir IC is characterized by high organic matter (OM) accumulation and low OM decomposition of a distinctive Drepanocladus moss-peat. The Yukagir IC pollen data reveal grass-shrub-moss tundra indicating rather wet summer conditions similar to modern ones. The stable isotope composition of Yukagir IC wedge ice is similar to those of the MIS 5 and MIS 3 ICs pointing to similar atmospheric moisture generation and transport patterns in winter. IC data from glacial and interglacial periods provide insights into permafrost and climate dynamics since about 200 ka.
Convergence between the Indian and Asian plates has reshaped large parts of Asia, changing regional climate and biodiversity, yet geodynamic models fundamentally diverge on how convergence was accommodated since the India-Asia collision. Here we report palaeomagnetic data from the Burma Terrane, which is at the eastern edge of the collision zone and is famous for its Cretaceous amber biota, to better determine the evolution of the India-Asia collision. The Burma Terrane was part of a Trans-Tethyan island arc and stood at a near-equatorial southern latitude at similar to 95 Ma, suggesting island endemism for the Burmese amber biota. The Burma Terrane underwent significant clockwise rotation between similar to 80 and 50 Ma, causing its subduction margin to become hyper-oblique. Subsequently, it was translated northward on the Indian Plate by an exceptional distance of at least 2,000 km along a dextral strike-slip fault system in the east. Our reconstructions are only compatible with geodynamic models involving an initial collision of India with a near-equatorial Trans-Tethyan subduction system at similar to 60 Ma, followed by a later collision with the Asian margin.
Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as a complement to fluctuating renewable energy systems is a reliable technology to guarantee continuous energy supply for heating and air conditioning. We investigated a high-temperature (HT) mono-well system (c. 100 degrees C), where the well screens are separated vertically within the aquifer, as an alternative to conventional doublet ATES systems for an underground storage in northern Oman. We analysed the impact of thermal inference between injection and extraction well screens on the heat recovery factor (HRF) in order to define the optimal screento-screen distance for best possible systems efficiency. Two controlling interference parameters were considered: the vertical screen-to-screen distance and aquifer heterogeneities. The sensitivity study shows that with decreasing screen-to-screen distances, thermal interference increases storage performance. A turning point is reached if the screen distance is too close, causing either water breakthrough or negative thermal interference between the screens. Our simulations show that a combined heat plume with spherical geometry results in the highest heat recovery factors due to the lowest surface area to volume ratios. Thick aquifers for mono-well HT-ATES are thus not mandatory Our study shows that a HT-ATES mono-well system is a feasible storage design with high heat recovery factors for continuous cooling or heating purposes.
Isolated extreme habitats are ideally suited to investigate pivotal ecological processes such as niche use, local adaptation and dispersal. Extremophilic animals living in isolated habitats face the problem that dispersal is limited through the absence of suitable dispersal corridors, which in turn facilitates local adaptation. We used five rotifer isolates from extremely acidic mining lakes with a pH of below 3 as model organisms to test whether these isolates are acidotolerant or acidophilic, whether they survive and reproduce at their niche edges (here pH 2 and circum-neutral pH) and whether local adaptation has evolved. To evaluate potential dispersal limitation, we tested whether animals and their parthenogenetic eggs survive and remain reproductive or viable at unfavourable pH-conditions. All five isolates were acidophilic with a pH-optimum in the range of 4-6, which is well above the pH (< 3) of their lakes of origin. At unfavourable high pH, in four out of the five isolates parthenogenetic females produced a high number of non-viable eggs. Females and eggs produced at favourable pH (4) remained vital at an otherwise unfavourable pH of 7, indicating that for dispersal no acidic dispersal corridors are necessary. Common garden experiments revealed no clear evidence for local adaptation in any of the five isolates. Despite their acidophilic nature, all five isolates can potentially disperse via circum-neutral water bodies as long as their residence time is short, suggesting a broader dispersal niche than their realized niche. Local adaptation might have been hampered by the low population sizes of the rotifers in their isolated habitat and the short time span the mining lakes have existed.
Deformation associated with plate convergence at subduction zones is accommodated by a complex system involving fault slip and viscoelastic flow. These processes have proven difficult to disentangle. The 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake occurred close to the Chilean coast within a dense network of continuously recording Global Positioning System stations, which provide a comprehensive history of surface strain. We use these data to assemble a detailed picture of a structurally controlled megathrust fault frictional patchwork and the three-dimensional rheological and time-dependent viscosity structure of the lower crust and upper mantle, all of which control the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation during postseismic deformation. These results enhance our understanding of subduction dynamics including the interplay of localized and distributed deformation during the subduction zone earthquake cycle.
Germany and the United Kingdom have domestic shale gas reserves which they may exploit in the future to complement their national energy strategies. However gas production releases volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which through photochemical reaction form ground-level ozone, an air pollutant that can trigger adverse health effects e.g. on the respiratory system. This study explores the range of impacts of a potential shale gas industry in these two countries on local and regional ambient ozone. To this end, comprehensive emission scenarios are used as the basis for input to an online-coupled regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem). Here we simulate shale gas scenarios over summer (June, July, August) 2011, exploring the effects of varying VOC emissions, gas speciation, and concentration of NOx emissions over space and time, on ozone formation. An evaluation of the model setup is performed, which exhibited the model’s ability to predict surface meteorological and chemical variables well compared with observations, and consistent with other studies. When different shale gas scenarios were employed, the results show a peak increase in maximum daily 8-hour average ozone from 3.7 to 28.3 μg m–3. In addition, we find that shale gas emissions can force ozone exceedances at a considerable percentage of regulatory measurement stations locally (up to 21% in Germany and 35% in the United Kingdom) and in distant countries through long-range transport, and increase the cumulative health-related metric SOMO35 (maximum percent increase of ~28%) throughout the region. Findings indicate that VOC emissions are important for ozone enhancement, and to a lesser extent NOx, meaning that VOC regulation for a future European shale gas industry will be of especial importance to mitigate unfavorable health outcomes. Overall our findings demonstrate that shale gas production in Europe can worsen ozone air quality on both the local and regional scales.
Following the Middle Permian (Capitanian) mass extinction there was a global ‘reef eclipse’, and this event had an important role in the Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition of reef ecosystems. Furthermore, the recovery pattern of reef ecosystems in the Wuchiapingian of South China, before the radiation of Changhsingian reefs, is poorly understood. Here, we present a detailed sedimentological account of the Tieqiao section, South China, which records the only known Wuchiapingian reef setting from South China. Six reef growing phases were identified within six transgressive-regressive cycles. The cycles represent changes of deposition in a shallow basin to a subtidal outer platform setting, and the reefal build-ups are recorded in the shallowest part of the cycles above wave base in the euphotic zone. Our results show that the initial reef recovery started from the shallowing up part of the 1st cycle, within the Clarkina leveni conodont zone, which is two conodont zones earlier than previously recognized. In addition, even though metazoans, such as sponges, do become important in the development of the reef bodies, they are not a major component until later in the Wuchiapingian in the 5th and 6th transgressive-regressive cycles. This suggests a delayed recovery of metazoan reef ecosystems following the Middle Permian extinction. Furthermore, even though sponges do become abundant within the reefs, it is the presence and growth of the encrusters Archaeolithoporella and Tubiphytes and abundance of microbial micrites that play an important role in stabilizing the reef structures that form topographic highs.