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Kijko et al. (2016) present various methods to estimate parameters that are relevant for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. One of these parameters, although not the most influential, is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). I show that the proposed estimation of m(max) is based on an erroneous equation related to a misuse of the estimator in Cooke (1979) and leads to unstable results. So far, reported finite estimations of m(max) arise from data selection, because the estimator in Kijko et al. (2016) diverges with finite probability. This finding is independent of the assumed distribution of earthquake magnitudes. For the specific choice of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, I illustrate the problems by deriving explicit equations. Finally, I conclude that point estimators are generally not a suitable approach to constrain m(max).
Predicting macroscopic elastic rock properties requires detailed information on microstructure
(2017)
Predicting variations in macroscopic mechanical rock behaviour due to microstructural changes, driven by mineral precipitation and dissolution is necessary to couple chemo-mechanical processes in geological subsurface simulations. We apply 3D numerical homogenization models to estimate Young’s moduli for five synthetic microstructures, and successfully validate our results for comparable geometries with the analytical Mori-Tanaka approach. Further, we demonstrate that considering specific rock microstructures is of paramount importance, since calculated elastic properties may deviate by up to 230 % for the same mineral composition. Moreover, agreement between simulated and experimentally determined Young’s moduli is significantly improved, when detailed spatial information are employed.
Water management tools are necessary to guarantee the preservation of natural resources while ensuring optimum utilization. Linear regression models are a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. Multivariate models show higher precision than univariate models. In the case of Waiwera, implementation of individual production rates is more accurate than applying just the total production rate. A maximum of approximately 1,075 m3/day can be pumped to ensure a water level of at least 0.5 m a.s.l. in the monitoring well. The model should be renewed annually to implement new data and current water level trends to keep the quality.
Integration and development of the energy supply in China and worldwide is a challenge for the years to come. The innovative idea presented here is based on an extension of the “power-to-gas-to-power” technology by establishing a closed carbon cycle. It is an implementation of a low-carbon energy system based on carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) to store and reuse wind and solar energy. The Chenjiacun storage project in China compares well with the German case study for the towns Potsdam and Brandenburg/Havel in the Federal State of Brandenburg based on the Ketzin pilot site for CCS.
This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre and postdisturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.
Dissolved CO2 storage in geological formations with low pressure, low risk and large capacities
(2017)
Geological CO2 storage is a mitigation technology to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. However, major concerns are the pressure increase and saltwater displacement in the mainly targeted deep groundwater aquifers due to injection of supercritical CO2. The suggested solution is storage of CO2 exclusively in the dissolved state. In our exemplary regional case study of the North East German Basin based on a highly resolved temperature and pressure distribution model and a newly developed reactive transport coupling, we have quantified that 4.7 Gt of CO2 can be stored in solution compared to 1.5 Gt in the supercritical state.