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Exosomes are small membrane vesicles released by different cell types, including hepatocytes, that play important roles in intercellular communication. We have previously demonstrated that hepatocyte-derived exosomes contain the synthetic machinery to form sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) in target hepatocytes resulting in proliferation and liver regeneration after ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury. We also demonstrated that the chemokine receptors, CXCR1 and CXCR2, regulate liver recovery and regeneration after I/R injury. In the current study, we sought to determine if the regulatory effects of CXCR1 and CXCR2 on liver recovery and regeneration might occur via altered release of hepatocyte exosomes. We found that hepatocyte release of exosomes was dependent upon CXCR1 and CXCR2. CXCR1-deficient hepatocytes produced fewer exosomes, whereas CXCR2-deficient hepatocytes produced more exosomes compared to their wild-type controls. In CXCR2-deficient hepatocytes, there was increased activity of neutral sphingomyelinase (Nsm) and intracellular ceramide. CXCR1-deficient hepatocytes had no alterations in Nsm activity or ceramide production. Interestingly, exosomes from CXCR1-deficient hepatocytes had no effect on hepatocyte proliferation, due to a lack of neutral ceramidase and sphingosine kinase. The data demonstrate that CXCR1 and CXCR2 regulate hepatocyte exosome release. The mechanism utilized by CXCR1 remains elusive, but CXCR2 appears to modulate Nsm activity and resultant production of ceramide to control exosome release. CXCR1 is required for packaging of enzymes into exosomes that mediate their hepatocyte proliferative effect.
Antibodies against spike proteins of influenza are used as a tool for characterization of viruses and therapeutic approaches. However, development, production and quality control of antibodies is expensive and time consuming. To circumvent these difficulties, three peptides were derived from complementarity determining regions of an antibody heavy chain against influenza A spike glycoprotein. Their binding properties were studied experimentally, and by molecular dynamics simulations. Two peptide candidates showed binding to influenza A/Aichi/2/68 H3N2. One of them, termed PeB, with the highest affinity prevented binding to and infection of target cells in the micromolar region without any cytotoxic effect. PeB matches best the conserved receptor binding site of hemagglutinin. PeB bound also to other medical relevant influenza strains, such as human-pathogenic A/California/7/2009 H1N1, and avian-pathogenic A/MuteSwan/Rostock/R901/2006 H7N1. Strategies to improve the affinity and to adapt specificity are discussed and exemplified by a double amino acid substituted peptide, obtained by substitutional analysis. The peptides and their derivatives are of great potential for drug development as well as biosensing.
Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
Most climate change impacts manifest in the form of natural hazards. Damage assessment typically relies on damage functions that translate the magnitude of extreme events to a quantifiable damage. In practice, the availability of damage functions is limited due to a lack of data sources and a lack of understanding of damage processes. The study of the characteristics of damage functions for different hazards could strengthen the theoretical foundation of damage functions and support their development and validation. Accordingly, we investigate analogies of damage functions for coastal flooding and for wind storms and identify a unified approach. This approach has general applicability for granular portfolios and may also be applied, for example, to heat-related mortality. Moreover, the unification enables the transfer of methodology between hazards and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. This is demonstrated by a sensitivity analysis on the basis of two simple case studies (for coastal flood and storm damage). The analysis reveals the relevance of the various uncertainty sources at varying hazard magnitude and on both the microscale and the macroscale level. Main findings are the dominance of uncertainty from the hazard magnitude and the persistent behaviour of intrinsic uncertainties on both scale levels. Our results shed light on the general role of uncertainties and provide useful insight for the application of the unified approach.
Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 degrees C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80% of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mmyr(-1) will exceed 7% of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes.
Air pollution is the number one environmental cause of premature deaths in Europe. Despite extensive regulations, air pollution remains a challenge, especially in urban areas. For studying summertime air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region of Germany, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is set up and evaluated against meteorological and air quality observations from monitoring stations as well as from a field campaign conducted in 2014. The objective is to assess which resolution and level of detail in the input data is needed for simulating urban background air pollutant concentrations and their spatial distribution in the Berlin-Brandenburg area. The model setup includes three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 15, 3 and 1 km and anthropogenic emissions from the TNO-MACC III inventory. We use RADM2 chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme. Three sensitivity simulations are conducted updating input parameters to the single-layer urban canopy model based on structural data for Berlin, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale (mosaic option) and downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km x 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data including traffic density and population density. The results show that the model simulates meteorology well, though urban 2m temperature and urban wind speeds are biased high and nighttime mixing layer height is biased low in the base run with the settings described above. We show that the simulation of urban meteorology can be improved when specifying the input parameters to the urban model, and to a lesser extent when using the mosaic option. On average, ozone is simulated reasonably well, but maximum daily 8 h mean concentrations are underestimated, which is consistent with the results from previous modelling studies using the RADM2 chemical mechanism. Particulate matter is underestimated, which is partly due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosols. NOx (NO + NO2) concentrations are simulated reasonably well on average, but nighttime concentrations are overestimated due to the model's underestimation of the mixing layer height, and urban daytime concentrations are underestimated. The daytime underestimation is improved when using downscaled, and thus locally higher emissions, suggesting that part of this bias is due to deficiencies in the emission input data and their resolution. The results further demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 3 km improves the results and spatial representativeness of the model compared to a horizontal resolution of 15 km. With the input data (land use classes, emissions) at the level of detail of the base run of this study, we find that a horizontal resolution of 1 km does not improve the results compared to a resolution of 3 km. However, our results suggest that a 1 km horizontal model resolution could enable a detailed simulation of local pollution patterns in the Berlin-Brandenburg region if the urban land use classes, together with the respective input parameters to the urban canopy model, are specified with a higher level of detail and if urban emissions of higher spatial resolution are used.
With accelerating climate cooling in the late Cenozoic, glacial and periglacial erosion became more widespread on the surface of the Earth. The resultant shift in erosion patterns significantly changed the large-scale morphology of many mountain ranges worldwide. Whereas the glacial fingerprint is easily distinguished by its characteristic fjords and U-shaped valleys, the periglacial fingerprint is more subtle but potentially prevails in some mid- to high-latitude landscapes. Previous models have advocated a frost-driven control on debris production at steep headwalls and glacial valley sides. Here we investigate the important role that periglacial processes also play in less steep parts of mountain landscapes. Understanding the influences of frost-driven processes in low-relief areas requires a focus on the consequences of an accreting soil mantle, which characterises such surfaces. We present a new model that quantifies two key physical processes: frost cracking and frost creep, as a function of both temperature and sediment thickness. Our results yield new insights into how climate and sediment transport properties combine to scale the intensity of periglacial processes. The thickness of the soil mantle strongly modulates the relation between climate and the intensity of mechanical weathering and sediment flux. Our results also point to an offset between the conditions that promote frost cracking and those that promote frost creep, indicating that a stable climate can provide optimal conditions for only one of those processes at a time. Finally, quantifying these relations also opens up the possibility of including periglacial processes in large-scale, long-term landscape evolution models, as demonstrated in a companion paper.
In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slow-down near the threshold: the median time to lose 10% of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 degrees C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 degrees C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions.
Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing, while export to the ocean remains uncertain
(2016)
Any regular interaction of land and river during flooding affects carbon pools within the terrestrial system, riverine carbon and carbon exported from the system. In the Amazon basin carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding, during which terrigenous organic material is imported to the river. The Amazon basin therefore represents an excellent example of a tightly coupled terrestrial-riverine system. The processes of generation, conversion and transport of organic carbon in such a coupled terrigenous-riverine system strongly interact and are climate-sensitive, yet their functioning is rarely considered in Earth system models and their response to climate change is still largely unknown. To quantify regional and global carbon budgets and climate change effects on carbon pools and carbon fluxes, it is important to account for the coupling between the land, the river, the ocean and the atmosphere. We developed the RIVerine Carbon Model (RivCM), which is directly coupled to the well-established dynamic vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL, in order to account for this large-scale coupling. We evaluate RivCM with observational data and show that some of the values are reproduced quite well by the model, while we see large deviations for other variables. This is mainly caused by some simplifications we assumed. Our evaluation shows that it is possible to reproduce large-scale carbon transport across a river system but that this involves large uncertainties. Acknowledging these uncertainties, we estimate the potential changes in riverine carbon by applying RivCM for climate forcing from five climate models and three CO2 emission scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES). We find that climate change causes a doubling of riverine organic carbon in the southern and western basin while reducing it by 20% in the eastern and northern parts. In contrast, the amount of riverine inorganic carbon shows a 2- to 3-fold increase in the entire basin, independent of the SRES scenario. The export of carbon to the atmosphere increases as well, with an average of about 30 %. In contrast, changes in future export of organic carbon to the Atlantic Ocean depend on the SRES scenario and are projected to either decrease by about 8.9% (SRES A1B) or increase by about 9.1% (SRES A2). Such changes in the terrigenous-riverine system could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in riverine carbon could lead to a shift in the riverine nutrient supply and pH, while changes in the exported carbon to the ocean lead to changes in the supply of organic material that acts as a food source in the Atlantic. On larger scales the increased outgassing of CO2 could turn the Amazon basin from a sink of carbon to a considerable source. Therefore, we propose that the coupling of terrestrial and riverine carbon budgets should be included in subsequent analysis of the future regional carbon budget.
Roads at risk
(2015)
Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.
Voltage-gated potassium (K+) channels are present in all living systems. Despite high structural similarities in the transmembrane domains (TMD), this K+ channel type segregates into at least two main functional categories-hyperpolarization-activated, inward-rectifying (Kin) and depolarization-activated, outward-rectifying (Kout) channels. Voltage-gated K+ channels sense the membrane voltage via a voltage-sensing domain that is connected to the conduction pathway of the channel. It has been shown that the voltage-sensing mechanism is the same in Kin and Kout channels, but its performance results in opposite pore conformations. It is not known how the different coupling of voltage-sensor and pore is implemented. Here, we studied sequence and structural data of voltage-gated K+ channels from animals and plants with emphasis on the property of opposite rectification. We identified structural hotspots that alone allow already the distinction between Kin and Kout channels. Among them is a loop between TMD S5 and the pore that is very short in animal Kout, longer in plant and animal Kin and the longest in plant Kout channels. In combination with further structural and phylogenetic analyses this finding suggests that outward-rectification evolved twice and independently in the animal and plant kingdom.
The stress field at depth is a relevant parameter for the design of subsurface constructions and reservoir management. Yet the distortion of the regional stress field due to local-scale features such as sedimentary and tectonic structures or topography is often poorly constrained. We conduct a stress sensitivity analysis using 3-D numerical geomechanical modelling with an elasto-plastic material law to explore the impact of such site-specific features on the stress field in a sedimentary sequence of the Swiss Alpine foreland. The model's dimensions are 14 x 14 x 3 km(3) and it contains 10 units with different mechanical properties, intersected by two regional fault zones. An initial stress state is established involving a semi-empirical relationship between the ratio of horizontal to vertical stress and the overconsolidation ratio of argillaceous sediments. The model results indicate that local topography can affect the stress field significantly to depths greater than the relief contrasts at the surface, especially in conjunction with horizontal tectonic loading. The complexity and frictional properties of faults are also relevant. The greatest variability of the stress field arises across the different sedimentary units. Stress magnitudes and stress anisotropy are much larger in stiffer formations such as massive limestones than in softer argillaceous formations. The stiffer formations essentially carry the load of the far-field forces and are therefore more sensitive to changes of the boundary conditions. This general characteristic of stress distribution in the stiff and soft formations is broadly maintained also with progressive loading towards the plastic limit. The stress field in argillaceous sediments within a stack of formations with strongly contrasting mechanical properties like in the Alpine foreland appears to be relatively insensitive to changes in the tectonic boundary conditions and is largely controlled by the maximum stiffness contrast with respect to the load-bearing formations.
mRNA is translated with a non-uniform speed that actively coordinates co-translational folding of protein domains. Using structure-based homology we identified the structural domains in epoxide hydrolases (EHs) and introduced slow-translating codons to delineate the translation of single domains. These changes in translation speed dramatically improved the solubility of two EHs of metagenomic origin in Escherichia coli. Conversely, the importance of transient attenuation for the folding, and consequently solubility, of EH was evidenced with a member of the EH family from Agrobacterium radiobacter, which partitions in the soluble fraction when expressed in E. coli. Synonymous substitutions of codons shaping the slow-transiting regions to fast-translating codons render this protein insoluble. Furthermore, we show that low protein yield can be enhanced by decreasing the free folding energy of the initial 5'-coding region, which can disrupt mRNA secondary structure and enhance ribosomal loading. This study provides direct experimental evidence that mRNA is not a mere messenger for translation of codons into amino acids but bears an additional layer of information for folding, solubility and expression level of the encoded protein. Furthermore, it provides a general frame on how to modulate and fine-tune gene expression of a target protein.
It has been known for many decades that the lunar tidal influence in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) is noticeably enhanced during Northern Hemisphere winters. Recent literature has discussed the role of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events behind the enhancement of lunar tides and the findings suggest a positive correlation between the lunar tidal amplitude and lower stratospheric parameters (zonal mean air temperature and zonal mean zonal wind) during SSW events. The positive correlation raises the question whether an inverse approach could also be developed which makes it possible to deduce the occurrence of SSW events before their direct observations (before 1952) from the amplitude of the lunar tides. This study presents an analysis technique based on the phase of the semi-monthly lunar tide to determine the lunar tidal modulation of the EEJ. A statistical approach using the superposed epoch analysis is also carried out to formulate a relation between the EEJ tidal amplitude and lower stratospheric parameters. Using these results, we have estimated a threshold value for the tidal wave power that could be used to identify years with SSW events from magnetic field observations.
The invention and development of next or second generation sequencing methods has resulted in a dramatic transformation of ancient DNA research and allowed shotgun sequencing of entire genomes from fossil specimens. However, although there are exceptions, most fossil specimens contain only low (similar to 1% or less) percentages of endogenous DNA. The only skeletal element for which a systematically higher endogenous DNA content compared to other skeletal elements has been shown is the petrous part of the temporal bone. In this study we investigate whether (a) different parts of the petrous bone of archaeological human specimens give different percentages of endogenous DNA yields, (b) there are significant differences in average DNA read lengths, damage patterns and total DNA concentration, and (c) it is possible to obtain endogenous ancient DNA from petrous bones from hot environments. We carried out intra-petrous comparisons for ten petrous bones from specimens from Holocene archaeological contexts across Eurasia dated between 10,0001,800 calibrated years before present (cal. BP). We obtained shotgun DNA sequences from three distinct areas within the petrous: a spongy part of trabecular bone (part A), the dense part of cortical bone encircling the osseous inner ear, or otic capsule (part B), and the dense part within the otic capsule (part C). Our results confirm that dense bone parts of the petrous bone can provide high endogenous aDNA yields and indicate that endogenous DNA fractions for part C can exceed those obtained for part B by up to 65-fold and those from part A by up to 177-fold, while total endogenous DNA concentrations are up to 126-fold and 109-fold higher for these comparisons. Our results also show that while endogenous yields from part C were lower than 1% for samples from hot (both arid and humid) parts, the DNA damage patterns indicate that at least some of the reads originate from ancient DNA molecules, potentially enabling ancient DNA analyses of samples from hot regions that are otherwise not amenable to ancient DNA analyses.
The organic-carbon (OC) pool accumulated in Arctic permafrost (perennially frozen ground) equals the carbon stored in the modern atmosphere. To give an idea of how Yedoma region permafrost could respond under future climatic warming, we conducted a study to quantify the organic-matter quality (here defined as the intrinsic potential to be further transformed, decomposed, and mineralized) of late Pleistocene (Yedoma) and Holocene (thermokarst) deposits on the Buor-Khaya Peninsula, northeast Siberia. The objective of this study was to develop a stratigraphic classified organic-matter quality characterization. For this purpose the degree of organic-matter decomposition was estimated by using a multiproxy approach. We applied sedimentological (grain-size analyses, bulk density, ice content) and geochemical parameters (total OC, stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13),total organic carbon : nitrogen (C / N) ratios) as well as lipid biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-fatty acids, hopanes, triterpenoids, and biomarker indices, i.e., average chain length, carbon preference index (CPI), and higher-plant fatty-acid index (HPFA)). Our results show that the Yedoma and thermokarst organic-matter qualities for further decomposition exhibit no obvious degradation-depth trend. Relatively, the C / N and delta C-13 values and the HPFA index show a significantly better preservation of the organic matter stored in thermokarst deposits compared to Yedoma deposits. The CPI data suggest less degradation of the organic matter from both deposits, with a higher value for Yedoma organic matter. As the interquartile ranges of the proxies mostly over-lap, we interpret this as indicating comparable quality for further decomposition for both kinds of deposits with likely better thermokarst organic-matter quality. Supported by principal component analyses, the sediment parameters and quality proxies of Yedoma and thermokarst deposits could not be unambiguously separated from each other. This revealed that the organic-matter vulnerability is heterogeneous and depends on different decomposition trajectories and the previous decomposition and preservation history. Elucidating this was one of the major new contributions of our multiproxy study. With the addition of biomarker data, it was possible to show that permafrost organic-matter degradation likely occurs via a combination of (uncompleted) degradation cycles or a cascade of degradation steps rather than as a linear function of age or sediment facies. We conclude that the amount of organic matter in the studied sediments is high for mineral soils and of good quality and therefore susceptible to future decomposition. The lack of depth trends shows that permafrost acts like a giant freezer, preserving the constant quality of ancient organic matter. When undecomposed Yedoma organic matter is mobilized via thermokarst processes, the fate of this carbon depends largely on the environmental conditions; the carbon could be preserved in an undecomposed state till refreezing occurs. If modern input has occurred, thermokarst organic matter could be of a better quality for future microbial decomposition than that found in Yedoma deposits.
Modelling the transfer of supraglacial meltwater to the bed of Leverett Glacier, Southwest Greenland
(2015)
Meltwater delivered to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet is a driver of variable ice-motion through changes in effective pressure and enhanced basal lubrication. Ice surface velocities have been shown to respond rapidly both to meltwater production at the surface and to drainage of supraglacial lakes, suggesting efficient transfer of meltwater from the supraglacial to subglacial hydrological systems. Although considerable effort is currently being directed towards improved modelling of the controlling surface and basal processes, modelling the temporal and spatial evolution of the transfer of melt to the bed has received less attention. Here we present the results of spatially distributed modelling for prediction of moulins and lake drainages on the Leverett Glacier in Southwest Greenland. The model is run for the 2009 and 2010 ablation seasons, and for future increased melt scenarios. The temporal pattern of modelled lake drainages are qualitatively comparable with those documented from analyses of repeat satellite imagery. The modelled timings and locations of delivery of meltwater to the bed also match well with observed temporal and spatial patterns of ice surface speed-ups. This is particularly true for the lower catchment (< 1000 m a.s.l.) where both the model and observations indicate that the development of moulins is the main mechanism for the transfer of surface meltwater to the bed. At higher elevations (e.g. 1250-1500 m a.s.l.) the development and drainage of supraglacial lakes becomes increasingly important. At these higher elevations, the delay between modelled melt generation and subsequent delivery of melt to the bed matches the observed delay between the peak air temperatures and subsequent velocity speed-ups, while the instantaneous transfer of melt to the bed in a control simulation does not. Although both moulins and lake drainages are predicted to increase in number for future warmer climate scenarios, the lake drainages play an increasingly important role in both expanding the area over which melt accesses the bed and in enabling a greater proportion of surface melt to reach the bed.
Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale.
This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.
The initiation of a marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) is generally discussed from the ocean side of the ice sheet. It has been shown that the reduction in ice-shelf buttressing and softening of the coastal ice can destabilize a marine ice sheet if the bedrock is sloping upward towards the ocean. Using a conceptional flow-line geometry, we investigate the possibility of whether a MISI can be triggered from the direction of the ice divide as opposed to coastal forcing and explore the interaction between connected basins. We find that the initiation of a MISI in one basin can induce a destabilization in the other. The underlying mechanism of basin interaction is based on dynamic thinning and a consecutive motion of the ice divide which induces a thinning in the adjacent basin and a successive initiation of the instability. Our simplified and symmetric topographic setup allows scaling both the geometry and the transition time between both instabilities. We find that the ice profile follows a universal shape that is scaled with the horizontal extent of the ice sheet and that the same exponent of 1/2 applies for the scaling relation between central surface elevation and horizontal extent as in the pure shallow ice approximation (Vialov profile). Altering the central bed elevation, we find that the extent of grounding-line retreat in one basin determines the degree of interaction with the other. Different scenarios of basin interaction are discussed based on our modeling results as well as on a conceptual flux-balance analysis. We conclude that for the three-dimensional case, the possibility of drainage basin interaction on timescales on the order of 1 kyr or larger cannot be excluded and hence needs further investigation.
The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50% metadata completeness for boreholes.
Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73% are shallower than 25m and 27% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase.
Studies of glaciers generally require precise glacier outlines. Where these are not available, extensive manual digitization in a geographic information system (GIS) must be performed, as current algorithms struggle to delineate glacier areas with debris cover or other irregular spectral profiles. Although several approaches have improved upon spectral band ratio delineation of glacier areas, none have entered wide use due to complexity or computational intensity.
In this study, we present and apply a glacier mapping algorithm in Central Asia which delineates both clean glacier ice and debris-covered glacier tongues. The algorithm is built around the unique velocity and topographic characteristics of glaciers and further leverages spectral and spatial relationship data. We found that the algorithm misclassifies between 2 and 10% of glacier areas, as compared to a similar to 750 glacier control data set, and can reliably classify a given Landsat scene in 3-5 min.
The algorithm does not completely solve the difficulties inherent in classifying glacier areas from remotely sensed imagery but does represent a significant improvement over purely spectral-based classification schemes, such as the band ratio of Landsat 7 bands three and five or the normalized difference snow index. The main caveats of the algorithm are (1) classification errors at an individual glacier level, (2) reliance on manual intervention to separate connected glacier areas, and (3) dependence on fidelity of the input Landsat data.
Microbial response to experimentally controlled redox transitions at the sediment water interface
(2015)
The sediment-water interface of freshwater lakes is characterized by sharp chemical gradients, shaped by the interplay between physical, chemical and microbial processes. As dissolved oxygen is depleted in the uppermost sediment, the availability of alternative electron acceptors, e.g. nitrate and sulfate, becomes the limiting factor. We performed a time series experiment in a mesocosm to simulate the transition from aerobic to anaerobic conditions at the sediment-water interface. Our goal was to identify changes in the microbial activity due to redox transitions induced by successive depletion of available electron acceptors. Monitoring critical hydrochemical parameters in the overlying water in conjunction with a new sampling strategy for sediment bacteria enabled us to correlate redox changes in the water to shifts in the active microbial community and the expression of functional genes representing specific redox-dependent microbial processes. Our results show that during several transitions from oxic-heterotrophic condition to sulfate-reducing condition, nitrate-availability and the on-set of sulfate reduction strongly affected the corresponding functional gene expression. There was evidence of anaerobic methane oxidation with NOx. DGGE analysis revealed redox-related changes in microbial activity and expression of functional genes involved in sulfate and nitrite reduction, whereas methanogenesis and methanotrophy showed only minor changes during redox transitions. The combination of high-frequency chemical measurements and molecular methods provide new insights into the temporal dynamics of the interplay between microbial activity and specific redox transitions at the sediment-water interface.
Abstract
Although genetic diversity is one of the key components of biodiversity, its drivers are still not fully understood. While it is known that genetic diversity is affected both by environmental parameters as well as habitat history, these factors are not often tested together. Therefore, we analyzed 14 microsatellite loci in Abax parallelepipedus, a flightless, forest dwelling ground beetle, from 88 plots in two study regions in Germany. We modeled the effects of historical and environmental variables on allelic richness, and found for one of the regions, the Schorfheide-Chorin, a significant effect of the depth of the litter layer, which is a main component of habitat quality, and of the sampling effort, which serves as an inverse proxy for local population size. For the other region, the Schwabische Alb, none of the potential drivers showed a significant effect on allelic richness. We conclude that the genetic diversity in our study species is being driven by current local population sizes via environmental variables and not by historical processes in the studied regions. This is also supported by lack of genetic differentiation between local populations sampled from ancient and from recent woodlands. We suggest that the potential effects of former fragmentation and recolonization processes have been mitigated by the large and stable local populations of Abax parallelepipedus in combination with the proximity of the ancient and recent woodlands in the studied landscapes.
Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.
Models for estimating flood losses to infrastructure are rare and their reliability is seldom investigated although infrastructure losses might contribute considerably to the overall flood losses. In this paper, an empirical modelling approach for estimating direct structural flood damage to railway infrastructure and associated financial losses is presented. Via a combination of event data, i.e. photo-documented damage on the Northern Railway in Lower Austria caused by the March River flood in 2006, and simulated flood characteristics, i.e. water levels, flow velocities and combinations thereof, the correlations between physical flood impact parameters and damage occurred to the railway track were investigated and subsequently rendered into a damage model. After calibrating the loss estimation using recorded repair costs of the Austrian Federal Railways, the model was applied to three synthetic scenarios with return periods of 30, 100 and 300 years of March River flooding. Finally, the model results are compared to depth-damage-curve-based approaches for the infrastructure sector obtained from the Rhine Atlas damage model and the Damage Scanner model. The results of this case study indicate a good performance of our two-stage model approach. However, due to a lack of independent event and damage data, the model could not yet be validated. Future research in natural risk should focus on the development of event and damage documentation procedures to overcome this significant hurdle in flood damage modelling.
Plasma convection in the high-latitude ionosphere provides important information about magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling. In this study we estimate the along-track component of plasma convection within and around the polar cap, using electron density profiles measured by the three Swarm satellites. The velocity values estimated from the two different satellite pairs agree with each other. In both hemispheres the estimated velocity is generally anti-sunward, especially for higher speeds. The obtained velocity is in qualitative agreement with Super Dual Auroral Radar Network data. Our method can supplement currently available instruments for ionospheric plasma velocity measurements, especially in cases where these traditional instruments suffer from their inherent limitations. Also, the method can be generalized to other satellite constellations carrying electron density probes.
Introduction
The transition from cross-fertilisation (outcrossing) to self-fertilisation (selfing) frequently coincides with changes towards a floral morphology that optimises self-pollination, the selfing syndrome. Population genetic studies have reported the existence of both outcrossing and selfing populations in Arabis alpina (Brassicaceae), which is an emerging model species for studying the molecular basis of perenniality and local adaptation. It is unknown whether its selfing populations have evolved a selfing syndrome.
Methods
Using macro-photography, microscopy and automated cell counting, we compared floral syndromes (size, herkogamy, pollen and ovule numbers) between three outcrossing populations from the Apuan Alps and three selfing populations from the Western and Central Alps (Maritime Alps and Dolomites). In addition, we genotyped the plants for 12 microsatellite loci to confirm previous measures of diversity and inbreeding coefficients based on allozymes, and performed Bayesian clustering.
Results and Discussion
Plants from the three selfing populations had markedly smaller flowers, less herkogamy and lower pollen production than plants from the three outcrossing populations, whereas pistil length and ovule number have remained constant. Compared to allozymes, microsatellite variation was higher, but revealed similar patterns of low diversity and high Fis in selfing populations. Bayesian clustering revealed two clusters. The first cluster contained the three outcrossing populations from the Apuan Alps, the second contained the three selfing populations from the Maritime Alps and Dolomites.
Conclusion
We conclude that in comparison to three outcrossing populations, three populations with high selfing rates are characterised by a flower morphology that is closer to the selfing syndrome. The presence of outcrossing and selfing floral syndromes within a single species will facilitate unravelling the genetic basis of the selfing syndrome, and addressing which selective forces drive its evolution.
Background
Mortality is a main driver in zooplankton population biology but it is poorly constrained in models that describe zooplankton population dynamics, food web interactions and nutrient dynamics. Mortality due to non-predation factors is often ignored even though anecdotal evidence of non-predation mass mortality of zooplankton has been reported repeatedly. One way to estimate non-predation mortality rate is to measure the removal rate of carcasses, for which sinking is the primary removal mechanism especially in quiescent shallow water bodies.
Objectives and Results
We used sediment traps to quantify in situ carcass sinking velocity and non-predation mortality rate on eight consecutive days in 2013 for the cladoceran Bosmina longirostris in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin; the outcomes were compared against estimates derived from in vitro carcass sinking velocity measurements and an empirical model correcting in vitro sinking velocity for turbulence resuspension and microbial decomposition of carcasses. Our results show that the latter two approaches produced unrealistically high mortality rates of 0.58-1.04 d(-1), whereas the sediment trap approach, when used properly, yielded a mortality rate estimate of 0.015 d(-1), which is more consistent with concurrent population abundance data and comparable to physiological death rate from the literature.
Ecological implications
Zooplankton carcasses may be exposed to water column microbes for days before entering the benthos; therefore, non-predation mortality affects not only zooplankton population dynamics but also microbial and benthic food webs. This would be particularly important for carbon and nitrogen cycles in systems where recurring mid-summer decline of zooplankton population due to non-predation mortality is observed.
In low-accumulation regions, the reliability of delta O-18-derived temperature signals from ice cores within the Holocene is unclear, primarily due to the small climate changes relative to the intrinsic noise of the isotopic signal. In order to learn about the representativity of single ice cores and to optimise future ice-core-based climate reconstructions, we studied the stable-water isotope composition of firn at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Analysing delta O-18 in two 50m long snow trenches allowed us to create an unprecedented, two-dimensional image characterising the isotopic variations from the centimetre to the 100-metre scale. Our results show seasonal layering of the isotopic composition but also high horizontal isotopic variability caused by local stratigraphic noise. Based on the horizontal and vertical structure of the isotopic variations, we derive a statistical noise model which successfully explains the trench data. The model further allows one to determine an upper bound for the reliability of climate reconstructions conducted in our study region at seasonal to annual resolution, depending on the number and the spacing of the cores taken.
Bioturbation contributes to soil formation and ecosystem functioning. With respect to the active transport of matter by voles, bioturbation may be considered as a very dynamic process among those shaping soil formation and biogeochemistry. The present study aimed at characterizing and quantifying the effects of bioturbation by voles on soil water relations and carbon and nitrogen stocks. Bioturbation effects were examined based on a field set up in a luvic arenosol comprising of eight 50 x 50 m enclosures with greatly different numbers of common vole (Microtus arvalis L., ca. 35-150 individuals ha(-1) mth(-1)). Eleven key soil variables were analyzed: bulk density, infiltration rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water holding capacity, contents of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (N), CO2 emission potential, C/N ratio, the stable isotopic signatures of C-13 and N-15, and pH. The highest vole densities were hypothesized to cause significant changes in some variables within 21 months. Results showed that land history had still a major influence, as eight key variables displayed an additional or sole influence of topography. However, the delta N-15 at depths of 10-20 and 20-30 cm decreased and increased with increasing vole numbers, respectively. Also the CO2 emission potential from soil collected at a depth of 15-30 cm decreased and the C/N ratio at 5-10 cm depth narrowed with increasing vole numbers. These variables indicated the first influence of voles on the respective mineralization processes in some soil layers. Tendencies of vole activity homogenizing SOC and N contents across layers were not significant. The results of the other seven key variables did not confirm significant effects of voles. Thus overall, we found mainly a first response of variables that are indicative for changes in biogeochemical dynamics but not yet of those representing changes in pools.
Isostasy is one of the oldest and most widely applied concepts in the geosciences, but the geoscientific community lacks a coherent, easy-to-use tool to simulate flexure of a realistic (i.e., laterally heterogeneous) lithosphere under an arbitrary set of surface loads. Such a model is needed for studies of mountain building, sedimentary basin formation, glaciation, sea-level change, and other tectonic, geodynamic, and surface processes. Here I present gFlex (for GNU flexure), an open-source model that can produce analytical and finite difference solutions for lithospheric flexure in one (profile) and two (map view) dimensions. To simulate the flexural isostatic response to an imposed load, it can be used by itself or within GRASS GIS for better integration with field data. gFlex is also a component with the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) and Landlab modeling frameworks for coupling with a wide range of Earth-surface-related models, and can be coupled to additional models within Python scripts. As an example of this in-script coupling, I simulate the effects of spatially variable lithospheric thickness on a modeled Iceland ice cap. Finite difference solutions in gFlex can use any of five types of boundary conditions: 0-displacement, 0-slope (i.e., clamped); 0-slope, 0-shear; 0-moment, 0-shear (i.e., broken plate); mirror symmetry; and periodic. Typical calculations with gFlex require << 1 s to similar to 1 min on a personal laptop computer. These characteristics - multiple ways to run the model, multiple solution methods, multiple boundary conditions, and short compute time - make gFlex an effective tool for flexural isostatic modeling across the geosciences.
Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.
In this paper we propose an algorithm to distinguish between light- and heavy-tailed probability laws underlying random datasets. The idea of the algorithm, which is visual and easy to implement, is to check whether the underlying law belongs to the domain of attraction of the Gaussian or non-Gaussian stable distribution by examining its rate of convergence. The method allows to discriminate between stable and various non-stable distributions. The test allows to differentiate between distributions, which appear the same according to standard Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. In particular, it helps to distinguish between stable and Student's t probability laws as well as between the stable and tempered stable, the cases which are considered in the literature as very cumbersome. Finally, we illustrate the procedure on plasma data to identify cases with so-called L-H transition.
To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and in particular the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. This approach assumes a strong link between weather patterns and local climate, and sufficient GCM skill in reproducing weather pattern climatology. These presuppositions are unprecedentedly evaluated here using 111 years of daily climate data from 490 stations in the Rhine basin and comprehensively testing the number of classification parameters and GCM weather pattern characteristics. A classification based on a combination of mean sea level pressure, temperature, and humidity from the ERA20C reanalysis of atmospheric fields over central Europe with 40 weather types was found to be the most appropriate for stratifying six local climate variables. The corresponding skill is quite diverse though, ranging from good for radiation to poor for precipitation. Especially for the latter it was apparent that pressure fields alone cannot sufficiently stratify local variability. To test the skill of the latest generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble in reproducing the frequency, seasonality, and persistence of the derived weather patterns, output from 15 GCMs is evaluated. Most GCMs are able to capture these characteristics well, but some models showed consistent deviations in all three evaluation criteria and should be excluded from further attribution analysis.
Brief communication
(2016)
In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.
Small scale distribution of insect root herbivores may promote plant species diversity by creating patches of different herbivore pressure. However, determinants of small scale distribution of insect root herbivores, and impact of land use intensity on their small scale distribution are largely unknown. We sampled insect root herbivores and measured vegetation parameters and soil water content along transects in grasslands of different management intensity in three regions in Germany. We calculated community-weighted mean plant traits to test whether the functional plant community composition determines the small scale distribution of insect root herbivores. To analyze spatial patterns in plant species and trait composition and insect root herbivore abundance we computed Mantel correlograms. Insect root herbivores mainly comprised click beetle (Coleoptera, Elateridae) larvae (43%) in the investigated grasslands. Total insect root herbivore numbers were positively related to community-weighted mean traits indicating high plant growth rates and biomass (specific leaf area, reproductive-and vegetative plant height), and negatively related to plant traits indicating poor tissue quality (leaf C/N ratio). Generalist Elaterid larvae, when analyzed independently, were also positively related to high plant growth rates and furthermore to root dry mass, but were not related to tissue quality. Insect root herbivore numbers were not related to plant cover, plant species richness and soil water content. Plant species composition and to a lesser extent plant trait composition displayed spatial autocorrelation, which was not influenced by land use intensity. Insect root herbivore abundance was not spatially autocorrelated. We conclude that in semi-natural grasslands with a high share of generalist insect root herbivores, insect root herbivores affiliate with large, fast growing plants, presumably because of availability of high quantities of food. Affiliation of insect root herbivores with large, fast growing plants may counteract dominance of those species, thus promoting plant diversity.
Thermal permafrost degradation and coastal erosion in the Arctic remobilize substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) and nutrients which have accumulated in late Pleistocene and Holocene unconsolidated deposits. Permafrost vulnerability to thaw subsidence, collapsing coastlines and irreversible landscape change are largely due to the presence of large amounts of massive ground ice such as ice wedges. However, ground ice has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements which are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling. Here we show, using biogeochemical data from a large number of different ice bodies throughout the Arctic, that ice wedges have the greatest potential for DOC storage, with a maximum of 28.6 mg L-1 (mean: 9.6 mg L-1). Variation in DOC concentration is positively correlated with and explained by the concentrations and relative amounts of typically terrestrial cations such as Mg2+ and K+. DOC sequestration into ground ice was more effective during the late Pleistocene than during the Holocene, which can be explained by rapid sediment and OC accumulation, the prevalence of more easily degradable vegetation and immediate incorporation into permafrost. We assume that pristine snowmelt is able to leach considerable amounts of well-preserved and highly bioavailable DOC as well as other elements from surface sediments, which are rapidly frozen and stored in ground ice, especially in ice wedges, even before further degradation. We found that ice wedges in the Yedoma region represent a significant DOC (45.2 Tg) and DIC (33.6 Tg) pool in permafrost areas and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km(2). This study underlines the need to discriminate between particulate OC and DOC to assess the availability and vulnerability of the permafrost car-bon pool for ecosystems and climate feedback upon mobilization.
Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind–damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012).
Brief communication
(2015)
Accelerating climate change and increased economic and environmental interests in permafrost-affected regions have resulted in an acute need for more directed permafrost research. In June 2014, 88 early career researchers convened to identify future priorities for permafrost research. This multidisciplinary forum concluded that five research topics deserve greatest attention: permafrost landscape dynamics, permafrost thermal modeling, integration of traditional knowledge, spatial distribution of ground ice, and engineering issues. These topics underline the need for integrated research across a spectrum of permafrost-related domains and constitute a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP III).
Dynamic C and N stocks
(2015)
The drainage and cultivation of fen peatlands create complex small-scale mosaics of soils with extremely variable soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and groundwater levels (GWLs). To date, the significance of such sites as sources or sinks for greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 is still unclear, especially if the sites are used for cropland. As individual control factors such as GWL fail to account for this complexity, holistic approaches combining gas fluxes with the underlying processes are required to understand the carbon (C) gas exchange of drained fens. It can be assumed that the stocks of SOC and N located above the variable GWL - defined as dynamic C and N stocks - play a key role in the regulation of the plant- and microbially mediated CO2 fluxes in these soils and, inversely, for CH4. To test this assumption, the present study analysed the C gas exchange (gross primary production - GPP; ecosystem respiration - R-eco; net ecosystem exchange - NEE; CH4) of maize using manual chambers for 4 years. The study sites were located near Paulinenaue, Germany, where we selected three soil types representing the full gradient of GWL and SOC stocks (0-1 m) of the landscape: (a) Haplic Arenosol (AR; 8 kg C m(-2)); (b) Mollic Gleysol (GL; 38 kg C m(-2)); and (c) Hemic Histosol (HS; 87 kg C m(-2)). Daily GWL data were used to calculate dynamic SOC (SOCdyn) and N (N-dyn) stocks.
Average annual NEE differed considerably among sites, ranging from 47 +/- 30 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in AR to -305 +/- 123 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in GL and -127 +/- 212 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in HS. While static SOC and N stocks showed no significant effect on C fluxes, SOCdyn and N-dyn and their interaction with GWL strongly influenced the C gas exchange, particularly NEE and the GPP : R-eco ratio. Moreover, based on nonlinear regression analysis, 86% of NEE variability was explained by GWL and SOCdyn. The observed high relevance of dynamic SOC and N stocks in the aerobic zone for plant and soil gas exchange likely originates from the effects of GWL-dependent N availability on C formation and transformation processes in the plant-soil system, which promote CO2 input via GPP more than CO2 emission via R-eco.
The process-oriented approach of dynamic C and N stocks is a promising, potentially generalisable method for system-oriented investigations of the C gas exchange of groundwater-influenced soils and could be expanded to other nutrients and soil characteristics. However, in order to assess the climate impact of arable sites on drained peatlands, it is always necessary to consider the entire range of groundwater-influenced mineral and organic soils and their respective areal extent within the soil landscape.
Background
Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level.
Results
We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data.
Conclusion
The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment.
Abstract
The emerging diffusive dynamics in many complex systems show a characteristic crossover behaviour from anomalous to normal diffusion which is otherwise fitted by two independent power-laws. A prominent example for a subdiffusive–diffusive crossover are viscoelastic systems such as lipid bilayer membranes, while superdiffusive–diffusive crossovers occur in systems of actively moving biological cells. We here consider the general dynamics of a stochastic particle driven by so-called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, that is noise with Gaussian amplitude and power-law correlations, which are cut off at some mesoscopic time scale. Concretely we consider such noise with built-in exponential or power-law tempering, driving an overdamped Langevin equation (fractional Brownian motion) and fractional Langevin equation motion. We derive explicit expressions for the mean squared displacement and correlation functions, including different shapes of the crossover behaviour depending on the concrete tempering, and discuss the physical meaning of the tempering. In the case of power-law tempering we also find a crossover behaviour from faster to slower superdiffusion and slower to faster subdiffusion. As a direct application of our model we demonstrate that the obtained dynamics quantitatively describes the subdiffusion–diffusion and subdiffusion–subdiffusion crossover in lipid bilayer systems. We also show that a model of tempered fractional Brownian motion recently proposed by Sabzikar and Meerschaert leads to physically very different behaviour with a seemingly paradoxical ballistic long time scaling.
Vegetated dunes are recognized as important natural barriers that shelter inland ecosystems and coastlines suffering daily erosive impacts of the sea and extreme events, such as tsunamis. However, societal responses to erosion and shoreline retreat often result in man-made coastal defence structures that cover part of the intertidal and upper shore zones causing coastal squeeze and habitat loss, especially for upper shore biota, such as dune plants. Coseismic uplift of up to 2.0 m on the Peninsula de Arauco (South central Chile, ca. 37.5 degrees S) caused by the 2010 Maule earthquake drastically modified the coastal landscape, including major increases in the width of uplifted beaches and the immediate conversion of mid to low sandy intertidal habitat to supralittoral sandy habitat above the reach of average tides and waves. To investigate the early stage responses in species richness, cover and across-shore distribution of the hitherto absent dune plants, we surveyed two formerly intertidal armoured sites and a nearby intertidal unarmoured site on a sandy beach located on the uplifted coast of Llico (Peninsula de Arauco) over two years. Almost 2 years after the 2010 earthquake, dune plants began to recruit, then rapidly grew and produced dune hummocks in the new upper beach habitats created by uplift at the three sites. Initial vegetation responses were very similar among sites. However, over the course of the study, the emerging vegetated dunes of the armoured sites suffered a slowdown in the development of the spatial distribution process, and remained impoverished in species richness and cover compared to the unarmoured site. Our results suggest that when released from the effects of coastal squeeze, vegetated dunes can recover without restoration actions. However, subsequent human activities and management of newly created beach and dune habitats can significantly alter the trajectory of vegetated dune development. Management that integrates the effects of natural and human induced disturbances, and promotes the development of dune vegetation as natural barriers can provide societal and conservation benefits in coastal ecosystems.
In the aftermath of the severe flooding in Central Europe in August 2002, a number of changes in flood policies were launched in Germany and other European countries, aiming at improved risk management. The question arises as to whether these changes have already had an impact on the residents' ability to cope with floods, and whether flood-affected private households are now better prepared than they were in 2002. Therefore, computer-aided telephone interviews with private households in Germany that suffered from property damage due to flooding in 2005, 2006, 2010 or 2011 were performed and analysed with respect to flood awareness, precaution, preparedness and recovery. The data were compared to a similar investigation conducted after the flood in 2002.
After the flood in 2002, the level of private precautions taken increased considerably. One contributing factor is the fact that, in general, a larger proportion of people knew that they were at risk of flooding. The best level of precaution was found before the flood events in 2006 and 2011. The main reason for this might be that residents had more experience with flooding than residents affected in 2005 or 2010. Yet, overall, flood experience and knowledge did not necessarily result in building retrofitting or flood-proofing measures, which are considered as mitigating damages most effectively. Hence, investments still need to be stimulated in order to reduce future damage more efficiently.
Early warning and emergency responses were substantially influenced by flood characteristics. In contrast to flood-affected people in 2006 or 2011, people affected by flooding in 2005 or 2010 had to deal with shorter lead times and therefore had less time to take emergency measures. Yet, the lower level of emergency measures taken also resulted from the people's lack of flood experience and insufficient knowledge of how to protect themselves. Overall, it was noticeable that these residents suffered from higher losses. Therefore, it is important to further improve early warning systems and communication channels, particularly in hilly areas with rapid-onset flooding.
Historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) and its extinct Eurasian populations
(2019)
Background
Resolving the historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) is a complex issue, because patterns inferred from fossils and from molecular data lack congruence. Fossil evidence supports an African origin, and suggests that leopards were already present in Eurasia during the Early Pleistocene. Analysis of DNA sequences however, suggests a more recent, Middle Pleistocene shared ancestry of Asian and African leopards. These contrasting patterns led researchers to propose a two-stage hypothesis of leopard dispersal out of Africa: an initial Early Pleistocene colonisation of Asia and a subsequent replacement by a second colonisation wave during the Middle Pleistocene. The status of Late Pleistocene European leopards within this scenario is unclear: were these populations remnants of the first dispersal, or do the last surviving European leopards share more recent ancestry with their African counterparts?
Results
In this study, we generate and analyse mitogenome sequences from historical samples that span the entire modern leopard distribution, as well as from Late Pleistocene remains. We find a deep bifurcation between African and Eurasian mitochondrial lineages (~ 710 Ka), with the European ancient samples as sister to all Asian lineages (~ 483 Ka). The modern and historical mainland Asian lineages share a relatively recent common ancestor (~ 122 Ka), and we find one Javan sample nested within these.
Conclusions
The phylogenetic placement of the ancient European leopard as sister group to Asian leopards suggests that these populations originate from the same out-of-Africa dispersal which founded the Asian lineages. The coalescence time found for the mitochondrial lineages aligns well with the earliest undisputed fossils in Eurasia, and thus encourages a re-evaluation of the identification of the much older putative leopard fossils from the region. The relatively recent ancestry of all mainland Asian leopard lineages suggests that these populations underwent a severe population bottleneck during the Pleistocene. Finally, although only based on a single sample, the unexpected phylogenetic placement of the Javan leopard could be interpreted as evidence for exchange of mitochondrial lineages between Java and mainland Asia, calling for further investigation into the evolutionary history of this subspecies.
Closing yield gaps
(2015)
Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented.
The nitric oxide (NO)/soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC)/cyclic guanosine monophasphate (cGMP)-signalling pathway is impaired under oxidative stress conditions due to oxidation and subsequent loss of the prosthetic sGC heme group as observed in particular in chronic renal failure. Thus, the pool of heme free sGC is increased under pathological conditions. sGC activators such as cinaciguat selectively activate the heme free form of sGC and target the disease associated enzyme. In this study, a therapeutic effect of long-term activation of heme free sGC by the sGC activator cinaciguat was investigated in an experimental model of salt-sensitive hypertension, a condition that is associated with increased oxidative stress, heme loss from sGC and development of chronic renal failure. For that purpose Dahl/ss rats, which develop severe hypertension upon high salt intake, were fed a high salt diet (8% NaCl) containing either placebo or cinaciguat for 21 weeks. Cinaciguat markedly improved survival and ameliorated the salt-induced increase in blood pressure upon treatment with cinaciguat compared to placebo. Renal function was significantly improved in the cinaciguat group compared to the placebo group as indicated by a significantly improved glomerular filtration rate and reduced urinary protein excretion. This was due to anti-fibrotic and antiinflammatory effects of the cinaciguat treatment. Taken together, this is the first study showing that long-term activation of heme free sGC leads to renal protection in an experimental model of hypertension and chronic kidney disease. These results underline the promising potential of cinaciguat to treat renal diseases by targeting the disease associated heme free form of sGC.
Inventories of individually delineated landslides are a key to understanding landslide physics and mitigating their impact. They permit assessment of area–frequency distributions and landslide volumes, and testing of statistical correlations between landslides and physical parameters such as topographic gradient or seismic strong motion. Amalgamation, i.e. the mapping of several adjacent landslides as a single polygon, can lead to potentially severe distortion of the statistics of these inventories. This problem can be especially severe in data sets produced by automated mapping. We present five inventories of earthquake-induced landslides mapped with different materials and techniques and affected by varying degrees of amalgamation. Errors on the total landslide volume and power-law exponent of the area–frequency distribution, resulting from amalgamation, may be up to 200 and 50%, respectively. We present an algorithm based on image and digital elevation model (DEM) analysis, for automatic identification of amalgamated polygons. On a set of about 2000 polygons larger than 1000 m2, tracing landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the algorithm performs well, with only 2.7–3.6% incorrectly amalgamated landslides missed and 3.9–4.8% correct polygons incorrectly identified as amalgams. This algorithm can be used broadly to check landslide inventories and allow faster correction by automating the identification of amalgamation.
German football stadiums are well known for their atmosphere. It is often described as ‘electrifying,’ or ‘cracking.’ This article focuses on this atmosphere. Using a phenomenological approach, it explores how this emotionality can be understood and how geography matters while attending a match. Atmosphere in this context is conceptualized based on work by as a mood-charged space, neither object- nor subject-centered, but rather a medium of perception which cannot not exist. Based on qualitative research done in the home stadium of Hertha BSC in the German Bundesliga, this article shows that the bodily sensations experienced by spectators during a visit to the stadium are synchronized with events on the pitch and with the more or less imposing scenery. The analysis of in situ diaries reveals that spectators experience a comprehensive sense of collectivity. The study presents evidence that the occurrence of these bodily sensations is strongly connected with different aspects of spatiality. This includes sensations of constriction and expansion within the body, an awareness of one’s location within the stadium, the influence of the immediate surroundings and cognitive here/there and inside/outside distinctions.
The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV) causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012) time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host), bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes.