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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (140) (remove)
Data driven high resolution modeling and spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
(2021)
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice.
However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance.
To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions.
We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.
Woody plants are expanding into the Arctic in response to the warming climate. The impact on arctic plant communities is not well understood due to the limited knowledge about plant assembly rules.
Records of past plant diversity over long time series are rare. Here, we applied sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding targeting the P6 loop of the chloroplast trnL gene to a sediment record from Lake Ilirney (central Chukotka, Far Eastern Russia) covering the last 28 thousand years.
Our results show that forb-rich steppe-tundra and dwarf-shrub tundra dominated during the cold climate before 14 ka, while deciduous erect-shrub tundra was abundant during the warm period since 14 ka. Larix invasion during the late Holocene substantially lagged behind the likely warmest period between 10 and 6 ka, where the vegetation biomass could be highest.
We reveal highest richness during 28-23 ka and a second richness peak during 13-9 ka, with both periods being accompanied by low relative abundance of shrubs. During the cold period before 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting low genetic divergence in the assemblages despite the great number of species. This probably originates from environmental filtering along with niche differentiation due to limited resources under harsh environmental conditions. In contrast, during the warmer period after 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed.
This results from a high number of species which were found to harbor high genetic divergence, likely originating from an erratic recruitment process in the course of warming. Some of our evidence may be of relevance for inferring future arctic plant assembly rules and diversity changes. By analogy to the past, we expect a lagged response of tree invasion. Plant richness might overshoot in the short term; in the long-term, however, the ongoing expansion of deciduous shrubs will eventually result in a phylogenetically more diverse community.
Semi-distributed hydrological and water quality models are increasingly used as innovative and scientific-based management tools.
However, their application is usually restricted to the gauging stations where they are originally calibrated, limiting their spatial capability.
In this study, the semi-distributed hydrological water quality model HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) was tested spatially to represent nitrate-N (NO3- N) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads of the nested and heterogeneous Selke catchment (463 km(2)) in central Germany.
First, an automatic calibration procedure and uncertainty analysis were conducted using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) tool to simulate discharge, NO3--N and TP concentrations. A multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach was applied using three main gauging stations, covering the most important hydro-meteorological and physiographical characteristics of the whole catchment. Second, the model's capability was tested to represent further internal stations, which were not initially considered for calibration. Results showed that discharge was well represented by the model at all three main stations during both calibration (1994-1998) and validation (1999-2014) periods with lowest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.71 and maximum Percentage BIAS (PBIAS) of 18.0%.
The model was able to reproduce the seasonal dynamics of NO3--N and TP concentrations with low predictive uncertainty at the three main stations, reflected by PBIAS values in the ranges from 16.1% to 6.4% and from 20.0% to 11.5% for NO3--N and TP load simulations, respectively.
At internal stations, the model could represent reasonably well the seasonal variation of nutrient concentrations with PBIAS values in the ranges from 9.0% to 14.2% for NO3--N and from 25.3% to 34.3% for TP concentration simulations.
Overall, results suggested that the spatial validation of a nutrient transport model can be better ensured when a multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach using archetypical gauging stations is implemented.
Further, results revealed that the delineation of sub-catchments should put more focus on hydro-meteorological conditions than on land-use features.
Seeing beyond the outcrop
(2021)
Paleokarst breccias are a common feature of sedimentary rift basins. The Billefjorden Trough in the High Arctic archipelago of Svalbard is an example of such a rift. Here the Carboniferous stratigraphy exhibits intervals of paleokarst breccias formed by gypsum dissolution. In this study we integrate digital outcrop models (DOMs) with a 2D ground penetrating radar (GPR) survey to extrapolate external irregular paleokarst geometries beyond the 2D outcrops. DOMs are obtained through combining a series of overlapping photographs with structure-frommotion photogrammetry, to create mmto dm-resolution georeferenced DOMs. GPR is typically used for surveying the shallow subsurface and relies on detecting the contrasts in electro-magnetic permittivity. We defined three geophysical facies based on their appearance in GPR. By integrating subsurface geophysical data with DOMs we were able to correlate reflection patterns in GPR with outcrop features. The chaotic nature of paleokarst breccias is seen both in outcrop and GPR. Key horizons in outcrop and the GPR profiles allow tying together observations between these methods. Furthermore, we show that this technique expands the twodimensional outcrop surface into a three-dimensional domain, thus complementing, strengthening and extending outcrop interpretations.
Seismic scattering and absorption of oceanic lithospheric S waves in the Eastern North Atlantic
(2021)
The scattering and absorption of high-frequency seismic waves in the oceanic lithosphere is to date only poorly constrained by observations. Such estimates would not only improve our understanding of the propagation of seismic waves, but also unravel the small-scale nature of the lithosphere and its variability. Our study benefits from two exceptional situations: (1) we deployed over 10 months a mid-aperture seismological array in the central part of the Eastern North Atlantic in 5 km water depth and (2) we could observe in total 340 high-frequency (up to 30 Hz) Po and So arrivals with tens to hundreds of seconds long seismic coda from local and regional earthquakes in a wide range of backazimuths and epicentral distances up to 850 km with a travel path in the oceanic lithosphere. Moreover, the array was located about 100 km north of the Gloria fault, defining the plate boundary between the Eurasian and African plates at this location which also allows an investigation of the influence of an abrupt change in lithospheric age (20 Ma in this case) on seismic waves. The waves travel with velocities indicating upper-mantle material. We use So waves and their coda of pre-selected earthquakes to estimate frequency-dependent seismic scattering and intrinsic attenuation parameters. The estimated scattering attenuation coefficients are between 10(-4) and 4 x 10(-5) m(-1) and are typical for the lithosphere or the upper mantle. Furthermore, the total quality factors for So waves below 5 Hz are between 20 and 500 and are well below estimates from previous modelling for observations in the Pacific Ocean. This implies that the Atlantic Ocean is more attenuative for So waves compared to the Pacific Ocean, which is inline with the expected behaviour for the lithospheric structures resulting from the slower spreading rates in the Atlantic Ocean. The results for the analysed events indicate that for frequencies above 3 Hz, intrinsic attenuation is equal to or slightly stronger than scattering attenuation and that the So-wave coda is weakly influenced by the oceanic crust. Both observations are in agreement with the proposed propagation mechanism of scattering in the oceanic mantle lithosphere. Furthermore, we observe an age dependence which shows that an increase in lithospheric age is associated with a decrease in attenuation. However, we also observe a trade-off of this age-dependent effect with either a change in lithospheric thickness or thermal variations, for example due to small-scale upwellings in the upper mantle in the southeast close to Madeira and the Canaries. Moreover, the influence of the nearby Gloria fault is visible in a reduction of the intrinsic attenuation below 3 Hz for estimates across the fault. This is the first study to estimate seismic scattering and absorption parameters of So waves for an area with several hundreds of kilometres radius centred in the Eastern North Atlantic and using them to characterize the nature of the oceanic lithosphere.
The investigation of stresses, faults, structure and seismic hazards requires a good understanding and mapping of earthquake rupture and slip. Constraining the finite source of earthquakes from seismic and geodetic waveforms is challenging because the directional effects of the rupture itself are small and dynamic numerical solutions often include a large number of free parameters. The computational effort is large and therefore difficult to use in an exploratory forward modelling or inversion approach. Here, we use a simplified self-similar fracture model with only a few parameters, where the propagation of the fracture front is decoupled from the calculation of the slip. The approximative method is flexible and computationally efficient. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the model with real-case examples of well-studied earthquakes. These include the M-w 8.3 2015 Illapel, Chile, megathrust earthquake at the plate interface of a subduction zone and examples of continental intraplate strike-slip earthquakes like the M-w 7.1 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, multisegment variable slip event or the M-w 7.5 2018 Palu, Indonesia, supershear earthquake. Despite the simplicity of the model, a large number of observational features ranging from different rupture-front isochrones and slip distributions to directional waveform effects or high slip patches are easy to model. The temporal evolution of slip rate and rise time are derived from the incremental growth of the rupture and the stress drop without imposing other constraints. The new model is fast and implemented in the open-source Python seismology toolbox Pyrocko, ready to study the physics of rupture and to be used in finite source inversions.
Pressure induced structural changes in silicate melts have a great impact on their physico-chemical properties and hence on their behaviour in the deep Earth's interior. In order to gain a deeper understanding we have studied the densification mechanism in multicomponent aluminosilicate glasses (albitic and albit-diopside composition) by means of extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy coupled to a diamond anvil cell up to 164 GPa. We have monitored the structural modifications from the network-former Ge as well as the network-modifier Sr. Notably, we tracked the evolution of Ge-O and Sr-O bond lengths (RGe-O, RSr-O) and their coordination number with pressure. We show that RGe-O increases strongly up to about 32 GPa, whereas RSr-O increases only slightly up to similar to 26 GPa. We assign these extensions to the increase of the coordination number from 4 to 6 (Ge) and from similar to 6 to at least 9 (Sr). Upon further compression RGe-O and RSr-O exhibit a continuous decrease to the highest probed pressure. These bond contractions, notably of RGe-O, that are continuous and exceed the one observed in pure SiO2 and GeO2, reflect a higher structural flexibility of multi-component glasses compared to those simple systems. Particularly, the high fraction of non-bridging oxygen atoms due to the presence of Na, Sr, Ca, Mg in the studied glasses, favours the simple compression of the highly-coordinated polyhedra of Si and Ge at pressure greater than 30 GPa. This is in strong contrast to pure oxides where cation polyhedral distortions govern the densification mechanism of the glass. The results of this study demonstrate that low field-strength alkali and alkaline earth cations, ubiquitous in deep Earth's melts, have a profound influence on the densification mechanism of glasses. Our results provide important constrains for interpreting the observed low velocity anomalies at the Earth's core-mantle boundary that have been, beyond others, referred to the presence of high-density melts. The hypothesis that non-buoyant melts at the Earth's core-mantle boundary can be formed by peculiar structural transformations in melts leading to higher coordination numbers compared to their crystalline equivalents is not supported from the present observations. The present results rather suggest that if velocity anomalies are to be explained by melts, these likely have considerable differences in chemical composition to the surrounding crystalline phase assemblage.
The within-site variability in site response is the randomness in site response at a given site from different earthquakes and is treated as aleatory variability in current seismic hazard/risk analyses.
In this study, we investigate the single-station variability in linear site response at K-NET and KiK-net stations in Japan using a large number of earthquake recordings.
We found that the standard deviation of the horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio at individual sites, that is single-station horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) sigma sigma(HV,s), approximates the within-site variability in site response quantified using surface-to-borehole spectral ratios (for oscillator frequencies higher than the site fundamental frequency) or empirical ground-motion models.
Based on this finding, we then utilize the single-station HVSR sigma as a convenient tool to study the site-response variability at 697 KiK-net and 1169 K-NET sites.
Our results show that at certain frequencies, stiff, rough and shallow sites, as well as small and local events tend to have a higher sigma(HV,s).
However, when being averaged over different sites, the single-station HVSR sigma, that is sigma(HV), increases gradually with decreasing frequency. In the frequency range of 0.25-25 Hz, sigma(HV) is centred at 0.23-0.43 in ln scales (a linear scale factor of 1.26-1.54) with one standard deviation of less than 0.1. sigma(HV) is quite stable across different tectonic regions, and we present a constant, as well as earthquake magnitude- and distance-dependent sigma(HV) models.
Carbonate minerals are common in both marine and lacustrine records, and are frequently used for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The sedimentary sequence of the endorheic Dead Sea and its precursors contain aragonite laminae that provide a detailed sedimentary archive of climatic, hydrologic, limnologic and environmental conditions since the Pleistocene. However, the interpretation of these archives requires a detailed understanding of the constraints and mechanisms affecting CaCO3 precipitation, which are still debated. The implications of aragonite precipitation in the Dead Sea and in its late Pleistocene predecessor (Lake Lisan) were investigated in this study by mixing natural and synthetic brines with a synthetic bicarbonate solution that mimics flash-floods composition, with and without the addition of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). Aragonite precipitation was monitored, and precipitation rates and carbonate yields were calculated and are discussed with respect to modern aquatic environments. The experimental insights on aragonite precipitation are then integrated with microfacies analyses in order to reconstruct and constrain prevailing limnogeological processes and their hydroclimatic drivers under low (interglacial) and high (glacial) lake level stands. Aragonite precipitation took place within days to several weeks after the mixing of the brines with a synthetic bicarbonate solution. Incubation time was proportional to bicarbonate concentration, and precipitation rates were partially influenced by ionic strength. Additionally, extracellular polymeric substances inhibited aragonite precipitation for several months. As for the lake's water budget, our calculations suggest that the precipitation of a typical aragonite lamina (0.5 mm thick) during high lake stand requires unreasonable freshwater inflow from either surface or subsurface sources. This discrepancy can be resolved by considering one or a combination of the following scenarios; (1) discontinuous aragonite deposition over parts of the lake floor; (2) supply of additional carbonate flux (or fluxes) to the lake from aeolian dust and the remobilization and dissolution of dust deposits at the watershed; (3) carbonate production via oxidation of organic carbon by sulfate-reducing bacteria. Altogether, it is suggested that aragonite laminae thickness cannot be directly interpreted for quantitatively reconstructing the hydrological balance for the entire lake, they may still prove valuable for identifying inherent hydroclimatic periodicities at a single site.
Sedimentary ancient DNA-based studies have been used to probe centuries of climate and environmental changes and how they affected cyanobacterial assemblages in temperate lakes. Due to cyanobacteria containing potential bloom-forming and toxin-producing taxa, their approximate reconstruction from sediments is crucial, especially in lakes lacking long-term monitoring data. To extend the resolution of sediment record interpretation, we used high-throughput sequencing, amplicon sequence variant (ASV) analysis, and quantitative PCR to compare pelagic cyanobacterial composition to that in sediment traps (collected monthly) and surface sediments in Lake Tiefer See. Cyanobacterial composition, species richness, and evenness was not significantly different among the pelagic depths, sediment traps and surface sediments (p > 0.05), indicating that the cyanobacteria in the sediments reflected the cyanobacterial assemblage in the water column. However, total cyanobacterial abundances (qPCR) decreased from the metalimnion down the water column. The aggregate-forming (Aphanizomenon) and colony-forming taxa (Snowella) showed pronounced sedimentation. In contrast, Planktothrix was only very poorly represented in sediment traps (meta- and hypolimnion) and surface sediments, despite its highest relative abundance at the thermocline (10 m water depth) during periods of lake stratification (May-October). We conclude that this skewed representation in taxonomic abundances reflects taphonomic processes, which should be considered in future DNA-based paleolimnological investigations.
Since the beginning of the Anthropocene, lacustrine biodiversity has been influenced by climate change and human activities. These factors advance the spread of harmful cyanobacteria in lakes around the world, which affects water quality and impairs the aquatic food chain. In this study, we assessed changes in cyanobacterial community dynamics via sedimentary DNA (sedaDNA) from well-dated lake sediments of Lake Tiefer See, which is part of the Klocksin Lake Chain spanning the last 350 years. Our diversity and community analysis revealed that cyanobacterial communities form clusters according to the presence or absence of varves. Based on distance-based redundancy and variation partitioning analyses (dbRDA and VPA) we identified that intensified lake circulation inferred from vegetation openness reconstructions, delta C-13 data (a proxy for varve preservation) and total nitrogen content were abiotic factors that significantly explained the variation in the reconstructed cyanobacterial community from Lake Tiefer See sediments. Operational taxonomic units (OTUs) assigned to Microcystis sp. and Aphanizomenon sp. were identified as potential eutrophication-driven taxa of growing importance since circa common era (ca. CE) 1920 till present. This result is corroborated by a cyanobacteria lipid biomarker analysis. Furthermore, we suggest that stronger lake circulation as indicated by non-varved sediments favoured the deposition of the non-photosynthetic cyanobacteria sister clade Sericytochromatia, whereas lake bottom anoxia as indicated by subrecent- and recent varves favoured the Melainabacteria in sediments. Our findings highlight the potential of high-resolution amplicon sequencing in investigating the dynamics of past cyanobacterial communities in lake sediments and show that lake circulation, anoxic conditions, and human-induced eutrophication are main factors explaining variations in the cyanobacteria community in Lake Tiefer See during the last 350 years.
Mechanical behaviors of granite after thermal treatment under loading and unloading conditions
(2021)
Understanding the mechanical behaviors of granite after thermal treatment under loading and unloading conditions is of utmost relevance to deep geothermal energy recovery. In the present study, a series of loading and unloading triaxial compression tests (20, 40 and 60 MPa) on granite specimens after exposure to different temperatures (20, 200, 300, 400, 500 and 600 degrees C) was carried out to quantify the combined effects of thermal treatment and loading/unloading stress conditions on granite strength and deformation. Changes in the microstructure of granite exposed to high temperatures were revealed by optical microscopy. The experimental results indicate that both, thermal treatment and loading/unloading stress conditions, degrade the mechanical behaviors and further decrease the carrying capacity of granite. The gradual degradation of the mechanical characteristics of granite after thermal treatment is mainly associated with the evolution of thermal micro-cracks based on optical microscopy observations. The unloading stress state induces the extension of tension cracks parallel to the axial direction, and thus, the mechanical properties are degraded. Temperatures above 400 degrees C have a more significant influence on the mechanical characteristics of granite than the unloading treatment, whereby 400 degrees C can be treated as a threshold temperature for the delineation of significant deterioration. This study is expected to support feasibility and risk assessments by means of providing data for analytical calculations and numerical simulations on granite exposed to high temperatures during geothermal energy extraction.
In this study, we analyzed a large seismological dataset from temporary and permanent networks in the southern and eastern Alps to establish high-precision hypocenters and 1-D V-P and V-P/V-S models. The waveform data of a subset of local earthquakes with magnitudes in the range of 1-4.2 M-L were recorded by the dense, temporary SWATH-D network and selected stations of the AlpArray network between September 2017 and the end of 2018. The first arrival times of P and S waves of earthquakes are determined by a semi-automatic procedure. We applied a Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion method to simultaneously calculate robust hypocenters, a 1-D velocity model, and station corrections without prior assumptions, such as initial velocity models or earthquake locations. A further advantage of this method is the derivation of the model parameter uncertainties and noise levels of the data. The precision estimates of the localization procedure is checked by inverting a synthetic travel time dataset from a complex 3-D velocity model and by using the real stations and earthquakes geometry. The location accuracy is further investigated by a quarry blast test. The average uncertainties of the locations of the earthquakes are below 500m in their epicenter and similar to 1.7 km in depth. The earthquake distribution reveals seismicity in the upper crust (0-20 km), which is characterized by pronounced clusters along the Alpine frontal thrust, e.g., the Friuli-Venetia (FV) region, the Giudicarie-Lessini (GL) and Schio-Vicenza domains, the Austroalpine nappes, and the Inntal area. Some seismicity also occurs along the Periadriatic Fault. The general pattern of seismicity reflects head-on convergence of the Adriatic indenter with the Alpine orogenic crust. The seismicity in the FV and GL regions is deeper than the modeled frontal thrusts, which we interpret as indication for southward propagation of the southern Alpine deformation front (blind thrusts).
Dryland xeric conditions exert a deterministic effect on microbial communities, forcing life into refuge niches. Deposited rocks can form a lithic niche for microorganisms in desert regions. Mineral weathering is a key process in soil formation and the importance of microbial-driven mineral weathering for nutrient extraction is increasingly accepted. Advances in geobiology provide insight into the interactions between microorganisms and minerals that play an important role in weathering processes. In this study, we present the examination of the microbial diversity in dryland rocks from the Tsauchab River banks in Namibia. We paired culture-independent 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing with culture-dependent (isolation of bacteria) techniques to assess the community structure and diversity patterns. Bacteria isolated from dryland rocks are typical of xeric environments and are described as being involved in rock weathering processes. For the first time, we extracted extra- and intracellular DNA from rocks to enhance our understanding of potentially rock-weathering microorganisms. We compared the microbial community structure in different rock types (limestone, quartz-rich sandstone and quartz-rich shale) with adjacent soils below the rocks. Our results indicate differences in the living lithic and sublithic microbial communities.
The metastable paragenesis of corundum and quartz is rare in nature but common in laboratory experiments where according to thermodynamic predictions aluminum-silicate polymorphs should form. We demonstrate here that the existence of a hydrous, silicon-bearing, nanometer-thick layer (called "HSNL") on the corundum surface can explain this metastability in experimental studies without invoking unspecific kinetic inhibition. We investigated experimentally formed corundum reaction products synthesized during hydrothermal and piston-cylinder experiments at 500-800 degrees C and 0.25-1.8 GPa and found that this HSNL formed inside and on the corundum crystals, thereby controlling the growth behavior of its host. The HSNL represents a substitution of Al with Si and H along the basal plane of corundum. Along the interface of corundum and quartz, the HSNL effectively isolates the bulk phases corundum and quartz from each other, thus apparently preventing their reaction to the stable aluminum silicate. High temperatures and prolonged experimental duration lead to recrystallization of corundum including the HSNL and to the formation of quartz + fluid inclusions inside the host crystal. This process reduces the phase boundary area between the bulk phases, thereby providing further opportunity to expand their coexistence. In addition to its small size, its transient nature makes it difficult to detect the HSNL in experiments and even more so in natural samples. Our findings emphasize the potential impact of nanometer-sized phases on geochemical reaction pathways and kinetics under metamorphic conditions in one of the most important chemical systems of the Earth's crust.
White mica and tourmaline are the dominant hydrothermal alteration minerals at the world-class Panasqueira W-Sn-Cu deposit in Portugal. Thus, understanding the controls on their chemical composition helps to constrain ore formation processes at this deposit and determine their usefulness as pathfinder minerals for mineralization in general. We combine whole-rock geochemistry of altered and unaltered metasedimentary host rocks with in situ LA-ICP-MS measurements of tourmaline and white mica from the alteration halo. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to better identify geochemical patterns and trends of hydrothermal alteration in the datasets. The hydrothermally altered metasediments are enriched in As, Sn, Cs, Li, W, F, Cu, Rb, Zn, Tl, and Pb relative to unaltered samples. In situ mineral analyses show that most of these elements preferentially partition into white mica over tourmaline (Li, Rb, Cs, Tl, W, and Sn), whereas Zn is enriched in tourmaline. White mica has distinct compositions in different settings within the deposit (greisen, vein selvages, wall rock alteration zone, late fault zone), indicating a compositional evolution with time. In contrast, tourmaline from different settings overlaps in composition, which is ascribed to a stronger dependence on host rock composition and also to the effects of chemical zoning and microinclusions affecting the LA-ICP-MS analyses. Hence, in this deposit, white mica is the better recorder of the fluid composition. The calculated trace-element contents of the Panasqueira mineralizing fluid based on the mica data and estimates of mica-fluid partition coefficients are in good agreement with previous fluid-inclusion analyses. A compilation of mica and tourmaline trace-element compositions from Panasqueira and other W-Sn deposits shows that white mica has good potential as a pathfinder mineral, with characteristically high Li, Cs, Rb, Sn, and W contents. The trace-element contents of hydrothermal tourmaline are more variable. Nevertheless, the compiled data suggest that high Sn and Li contents are distinctive for tourmaline from W-Sn deposits.
The Altiplano-Puna Plateau holds several shallow lakes, which are very sensitive to climate changes. This work is focused on a high-altitude lake system called Lagunas de Vilama (LVS), located in a complex climatic transition area with scarcity of continuous and homogeneous instrumental records. The objective of this study is to determine the regional spatial-temporal variability of precipitation and evaluate the seasonal and interannual lake responses. We use a lake-surfaces record derived from Landsat images to investigate links with regional precipitations and different climatic forcings. The results reveal that austral summer and autumn precipitations control the variability of the annual lake-surfaces. Also, we found intra-annual and interannual lags in the lake responses to precipitations, and identified several wet and dry stages. Our results show negative trends in precipitations and lake-surfaces, whose were strengthened by a shift to a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the 1990s. The El Nino Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Southern Annular Mode also exert a strong influence in the region. This study demonstrates that the variability of LVS lakes is strongly related to the South American Monsoon System dynamics and large-scale climate fordngs from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work provides novel indices which demonstrated to be good indicators of regional hydroclimatological variability for this region of South America.
Long- and short-term monitoring of a dam in response to seasonal changes and ground motion loading
(2021)
An experimental multi-parameter structural monitoring system has been installed on the Kurpsai dam, western Kyrgyz Republic. This system consists of equipment for seismic and strain measurements for making longer- (days, weeks, months) and shorter- (minutes, hours) term observations, dealing with, for example seasonal (longer) effects or the response of the dam to ground motion from noise or seismic events. Fibre-optic strain sensors allow the seasonal and daily opening and closing of the spaces between the dam's segments to be tracked. For the seismic data, both amplitude (in terms of using differences in amplitudes in the Fourier spectra for mapping the modes of vibration of the dam) and their time-frequency distribution for a set of small to moderate seismic events are investigated and the corresponding phase variabilities (in terms of lagged coherency) are evaluated. Even for moderate levels of seismic-induced ground motion, some influence on the structural response can be detected, which then sees the dam quickly return to its original state. A seasonal component was identified in the strain measurements, while levels of noise arising from the operation of the dam's generators and associated water flow have been provisionally identified.
Centroid moment tensor (CMT) parameters can be estimated from seismic waveforms. Since these data indirectly observe the deformation process, CMTs are inferred as solutions to inverse problems which are generally underdetermined and require significant assumptions, including assumptions about data noise. Broadly speaking, we consider noise to include both theory and measurement errors, where theory errors are due to assumptions in the inverse problem and measurement errors are caused by the measurement process. While data errors are routinely included in parameter estimation for full CMTs, less attention has been paid to theory errors related to velocity-model uncertainties and how these affect the resulting moment-tensor (MT) uncertainties. Therefore, rigorous uncertainty quantification for CMTs may require theory-error estimation which becomes a problem of specifying noise models. Various noise models have been proposed, and these rely on several assumptions. All approaches quantify theory errors by estimating the covariance matrix of data residuals. However, this estimation can be based on explicit modelling, empirical estimation and/or ignore or include covariances. We quantitatively compare several approaches by presenting parameter and uncertainty estimates in nonlinear full CMT estimation for several simulated data sets and regional field data of the M-1 4.4, 2015 June 13 Fox Creek, Canada, event. While our main focus is at regional distances, the tested approaches are general and implemented for arbitrary source model choice. These include known or unknown centroid locations, full MTs, deviatoric MTs and double-couple MTs. We demonstrate that velocity-model uncertainties can profoundly affect parameter estimation and that their inclusion leads to more realistic parameter uncertainty quantification. However, not all approaches perform equally well. Including theory errors by estimating non-stationary (non-Toeplitz) error covariance matrices via iterative schemes during Monte Carlo sampling performs best and is computationally most efficient. In general, including velocity-model uncertainties is most important in cases where velocity structure is poorly known.
Ice-rich permafrost has been subject to abrupt thaw and thermokarst formation in the past and is vulnerable to current global warming. The ice-rich permafrost domain includes Yedoma sediments that have never thawed since deposition during the late Pleistocene and Alas sediments that were formed by previous thermokarst processes during the Lateglacial and Holocene warming. Permafrost thaw unlocks organic carbon (OC) and minerals from these deposits and exposes OC to mineralization. A portion of the OC can be associated with iron (Fe), a redox-sensitive element acting as a trap for OC. Post-depositional thaw processes may have induced changes in redox conditions in these deposits and thereby affected Fe distribution and interactions between OC and Fe, with knock-on effects on the role that Fe plays in mediating present day OC mineralization. To test this hypothesis, we measured Fe concentrations and proportion of Fe oxides and Fe complexed with OC in unthawed Yedoma and previously thawed Alas deposits. Total Fe concentrations were determined on 1,292 sediment samples from the Yedoma domain using portable X-ray fluorescence; these concentrations were corrected for trueness using a calibration based on a subset of 144 samples measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry after alkaline fusion (R (2) = 0.95). The total Fe concentration is stable with depth in Yedoma deposits, but we observe a depletion or accumulation of total Fe in Alas deposits, which experienced previous thaw and/or flooding events. Selective Fe extractions targeting reactive forms of Fe on unthawed and previously thawed deposits highlight that about 25% of the total Fe is present as reactive species, either as crystalline or amorphous oxides, or complexed with OC, with no significant difference in proportions of reactive Fe between Yedoma and Alas deposits. These results suggest that redox driven processes during past thermokarst formation impact the present-day distribution of total Fe, and thereby the total amount of reactive Fe in Alas versus Yedoma deposits. This study highlights that ongoing thermokarst lake formation and drainage dynamics in the Arctic influences reactive Fe distribution and thereby interactions between Fe and OC, OC mineralization rates, and greenhouse gas emissions.
How biased are our models?
(2021)
Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.
This study is trying to understand the pre-eruptive magma storage and crystallization conditions of the Middle Miocene aged, silica-saturated trachytic rocks of the Afyon Volcanic Complex (AVC) in Western Anatolia, Turkey. Those rocks can be divided by their high K2O, K2O/Na2O ratio and Mg# into two groups, namely the intermediate-potassic (IPG) and the ultrapotassic (UPG). Here we are comparing calculated pressure (P) - temperature (T) conditions derived from geothermobarometric calculations of natural samples with results of high-pressure, high-temperature phase equilibria experiments. IPG samples are richer in silica (57-64 wt% SiO2), whereas UPG samples show intermediate SiO2 contents of 56-58 wt%. UPG are having high K2O contents ((>)9 wt %), K2O/Na2O ratios ((>)10 wt%) and Mg# values (75-77). IPG phenocrysts comprise plagioclase + biotite + amphibole + clinopyroxene +/- orthopyroxene +/- sanidine +/- phlogopite and oxides, while UPG mineralogical assemblage consists of amphibole + phlogopite + clinopyroxene + olivine + sanidine and oxides. IPG and UPG are enriched in Large-Ion Lithophile Elements (LILE), and both have negative anomalies in Nb, Sr, Zr and Ti elements. Additionally, IPG shows positive anomalies in Pb. Both IPG and UPG display enrichment in Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE), while IPG shows a more significant negative anomaly in Eu when compared to UPG. Plagioclase fractionation may play a role in magma generation. In IPG samples Ni and Cr values range between (3.3-18.8 ppm) and (2.6-27.8 ppm), respectively; whereas UPG samples have (119.1-120.7 ppm) Ni and (212.1-219.9 ppm) Cr. Dy/Yb ratios of IPG and UPG are higher than 2 and may indicate that garnet was present in the source. Geothermobarometric calculations for natural IPG clinopyroxene-melt pairs imply higher PT conditions (Dogan-Kulahci et al., 2015), while in this study high-pressure/high-temperature (HP/HT) phase equilibria experiments recreated the natural mineral assemblage at 2-4 kbar, 6-9 km and c. 900 degrees C. New plagioclase-melt calculations have confirmed lower mean magma storage temperatures, which are closer to the experimental results but still slightly elevated. Thus, trace element results of the natural rocks and experimental data may imply that a deep garnet-bearing magma source mixed with shallower magmas (IPG) was feeding the volcanic eruption.
Cyanobacteria are important primary producers in temperate freshwater ecosystems. However, studies on the seasonal and spatial distribution of cyanobacteria in deep lakes based on high-throughput DNA sequencing are still rare. In this study, we combined monthly water sampling and monitoring in 2019, amplicon sequence variants analysis (ASVs; a proxy for different species) and quantitative PCR targeting overall cyanobacteria abundance to describe the seasonal and spatial dynamics of cyanobacteria in the deep hard-water oligo-mesotrophic Lake Tiefer See, NE Germany. We observed significant seasonal variation in the cyanobacterial community composition (p < 0.05) in the epi- and metalimnion layers, but not in the hypolimnion. In winter-when the water column is mixed-picocyanobacteria (Synechococcus and Cyanobium) were dominant. With the onset of stratification in late spring, we observed potential niche specialization and coexistence among the cyanobacteria taxa driven mainly by light and nutrient dynamics. Specifically, ASVs assigned to picocyanobacteria and the genus Planktothrix were the main contributors to the formation of deep chlorophyll maxima along a light gradient. While Synechococcus and different Cyanobium ASVs were abundant in the epilimnion up to the base of the euphotic zone from spring to fall, Planktothrix mainly occurred in the metalimnetic layer below the euphotic zone where also overall cyanobacteria abundance was highest in summer. Our data revealed two potentially psychrotolerant (cold-adapted) Cyanobium species that appear to cope well under conditions of lower hypolimnetic water temperature and light as well as increasing sediment-released phosphate in the deeper waters in summer. The potential cold-adapted Cyanobium species were also dominant throughout the water column in fall and winter. Furthermore, Snowella and Microcystis-related ASVs were abundant in the water column during the onset of fall turnover. Altogether, these findings suggest previously unascertained and considerable spatiotemporal changes in the community of cyanobacteria on the species level especially within the genus Cyanobium in deep hard-water temperate lakes.
The Kohat fold and thrust belt in Pakistan shows a significantly different structural style due to the structural evolution on the double décollement compared to the rest of the Subhimalaya. In order to better understand the spatio-temporal structural evolution of the Kohat fold and thrust belt, we combine balanced cross sections with apatite (U?Th-Sm)/He (AHe) and apatite fission track (AFT) dating. The AHe and AFT ages appear to be totally reset, allowing us to date exhumation above structural ramps. The results suggest that deformation began on the frontal Surghar thrust at-15 Ma, predating or coeval with the development of the Main Boundary thrust at-12 Ma. Deformation propagated southward from the Main Boundary thrust on double de?collements between 10 Ma and 2 Ma, resulting in a disharmonic structural style inside the Kohat fold and thrust belt. Thermal modeling of the thermochronologic data suggest that samples inside Kohat fold and thrust belt experienced cooling due to formation of the duplexes; this deformation facilitated tectonic thickening of the wedge and erosion of the Miocene to Pliocene foreland strata. The spatial distribution of AHe and AFT ages in combination with the structural forward model suggest that, in the Kohat fold and thrust belt, the wedge deformed in-sequence as a supercritical wedge (-15-12 Ma), then readjusted by out-sequence deformation (-12-0 Ma) within the Kohat fold and thrust belt into a sub-critical wedge.
The correct orientation of seismic sensors is critical for studies such as full moment tensor inversion, receiver function analysis, and shear-wave splitting. Therefore, the orientation of horizontal components needs to be checked and verified systematically. This study relies on two different waveform-based approaches, to assess the sensor orientations of the broadband network of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI). The network is an important backbone for seismological research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and provides a comprehensive seismic data set for the North Anatolian fault. In recent years, this region became a worldwide field laboratory for continental transform faults. A systematic survey of the sensor orientations of the entire network, as presented here, facilitates related seismic studies. We apply two independent orientation tests, based on the polarization of P waves and Rayleigh waves to 123 broadband seismic stations, covering a period of 15 yr (2004-2018). For 114 stations, we obtain stable results with both methods. Approximately, 80% of the results agree with each other within 10 degrees. Both methods indicate that about 40% of the stations are misoriented by more than 10 degrees. Among these, 20 stations are misoriented by more than 20 degrees. We observe temporal changes of sensor orientation that coincide with maintenance work or instrument replacement. We provide time-dependent sensor misorientation correction values for the KOERI network in the supplemental material.
Water bodies are a highly abundant feature of Arctic permafrost ecosystems and strongly influence their hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical cycling. While very high resolution satellite images enable detailed mapping of these water bodies, the increasing availability and abundance of this imagery calls for fast, reliable and automatized monitoring. This technical work presents a largely automated and scalable workflow that removes image noise, detects water bodies, removes potential misclassifications from infrastructural features, derives lake shoreline geometries and retrieves their movement rate and direction on the basis of ortho-ready very high resolution satellite imagery from Arctic permafrost lowlands. We applied this workflow to typical Arctic lake areas on the Alaska North Slope and achieved a successful and fast detection of water bodies. We derived representative values for shoreline movement rates ranging from 0.40-0.56 m yr(-1) for lake sizes of 0.10 ha-23.04 ha. The approach also gives an insight into seasonal water level changes. Based on an extensive quantification of error sources, we discuss how the results of the automated workflow can be further enhanced by incorporating additional information on weather conditions and image metadata and by improving the input database. The workflow is suitable for the seasonal to annual monitoring of lake changes on a sub-meter scale in the study areas in northern Alaska and can readily be scaled for application across larger regions within certain accuracy limitations.
Alpine glacial erosion exerts a first-order control on mountain topography and sediment production, but its mechanisms are poorly understood. Observational data capable of testing glacial erosion and transport laws in glacial models are mostly lacking. New insights, however, can be gained from detrital tracer thermochronology. Detrital tracer thermochronology works on the premise that thermochronometer bedrock ages vary systematically with elevation, and that detrital downstream samples can be used to infer the source elevation sectors of sediments. We analyze six new detrital samples of different grain sizes (sand and pebbles) from glacial deposits and the modern river channel integrated with data from 18 previously analyzed bedrock samples from an elevation transect in the Leones Valley, Northern Patagonian Icefield, Chile (46.7 degrees S). We present 622 new detrital zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) single-grain analyses and 22 new bedrock ZHe analyses for two of the bedrock samples to determine age reproducibility. Results suggest that glacial erosion was focused at and below the Last Glacial Maximum and neoglacial equilibrium line altitudes, supporting previous modeling studies. Furthermore, grain age distributions from different grain sizes (sand, pebbles) might indicate differences in erosion mechanisms, including mass movements at steep glacial valley walls. Finally, our results highlight complications and opportunities in assessing glacigenic environments, such as dynamics of sediment production, transport, transient storage, and final deposition, that arise from settings with large glacio-fluvial catchments.
The sediment profile from Lake Goscia(z) over dot in central Poland comprises a continuous, seasonally resolved and exceptionally well-preserved archive of the Younger Dryas (YD) climate variation. This provides a unique opportunity for detailed investigation of lake system responses during periods of rapid climate cooling (YD onset) and warming (YD termination). The new varve record of Lake Goscia(z) over dot presented here spans 1662 years from the late Allerod (AL) to the early Preboreal (PB). Microscopic varve counting provides an independent chronology with a YD duration of 1149+14/-22 years, which confirms previous results of 1140 +/- 40 years. We link stable oxygen isotopes and chironomid-based air temperature reconstructions with the response of various geochemical and varve microfacies proxies especially focusing on the onset and termination of the YD. Cooling at the YD onset lasted similar to 180 years, which is about a century longer than the terminal warming that was completed in similar to 70 years. During the AL/YD transition, environmental proxy data lagged the onset of cooling by similar to 90 years and revealed an increase of lake productivity and internal lake re-suspension as well as slightly higher detrital sediment input. In contrast, rapid warming and environmental changes during the YD/PB transition occurred simultaneously. However, initial changes such as declining diatom deposition and detrital input occurred already a few centuries before the rapid warming at the YD/PB transition. These environmental changes likely reflect a gradual increase in summer air temperatures already during the YD. Our data indicate complex and differing environmental responses to the major climate changes related to the YD, which involve different proxy sensitivities and threshold processes.
Large rock slope failures play a pivotal role in long-term landscape evolution and are a major concern in land use planning and hazard aspects. While the failure phase and the time immediately prior to failure are increasingly well studied, the nature of the preparation phase remains enigmatic. This knowledge gap is due, to a large degree, to difficulties associated with instrumenting high mountain terrain and the local nature of classic monitoring methods, which does not allow integral observation of large rock volumes. Here, we analyse data from a small network of up to seven seismic sensors installed during July-October 2018 (with 43 days of data loss) at the summit of the Hochvogel, a 2592 m high Alpine peak. We develop proxy time series indicative of cyclic and progressive changes of the summit. Modal analysis, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio data and end-member modelling analysis reveal diurnal cycles of increasing and decreasing coupling stiffness of a 260,000 m(3) large, instable rock volume, due to thermal forcing. Relative seismic wave velocity changes also indicate diurnal accumulation and release of stress within the rock mass. At longer time scales, there is a systematic superimposed pattern of stress increased over multiple days and episodic stress release within a few days, expressed in an increased emission of short seismic pulses indicative of rock cracking. Our data provide essential first order information on the development of large-scale slope instabilities towards catastrophic failure. (c) 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
The Big Naryn Complex (BNC) in the East Djetim-Too Range of the Kyrgyz Middle Tianshan block is a tectonized, at least 2 km thick sequence of predominantly felsic to intermediate volcanic rocks intruded by porphyric rhyolite sills. It overlies a basement of metamorphic rocks and is overlain by late Neoproterozoic Djetim-Too Formation sediments; these also occur as tectonic intercalations in the BNC. The up to ca. 1100 m thick Lower Member is composed of predominantly rhyolites-to-dacites and minor basalts, while the at least 900 m thick pyroclastic Upper Member is dominated by rhyolitic-to-dacitic ignimbrites. Porphyric rhyolite sills are concentrated at the top of the Lower Member. A Lower Member rhyolite and a sill sample have LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon crystallization ages of 726.1 +/- 2.2 Ma and 720.3 +/- 6.5 Ma, respectively, showing that most of the magmatism occurred within a short time span in the late Tonian-early Cryogenian. Inherited zircons in the sill sample have Neoarchean (2.63, 2.64 Ga), Paleo- (2.33-1.81 Ga), Meso- (1.55 Ga), and Neoproterozoic (ca. 815 Ma) ages, and were derived from a heterogeneous Kuilyu Complex basement. A 1751 +/- 7 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 age for amphibole from metagabbro is the age of cooling subsequent to Paleoproterozoic metamorphism of the Kuilyu Complex. The large amount of pyroclastic rocks, and their major and trace element compositions, the presence of Neoarchean to Neoproterozoic inherited zircons and a depositional basement of metamorphic rocks point to formation of the BNC in a continental magmatic arc setting.
The Salt Range in Pakistan exposes Precambrian to Pleistocene strata outcropping along the Salt Range Thrust (SRT). To better understand the in-situ Cambrian and Pliocene tectonic evolution of the Pakistan Subhimalaya, we have conducted low-temperature thermochronological analysis using apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission track dating. We combine cooling ages from different samples located along the thrust front of the SRT into a thermal model that shows two major cooling events associated with rifting and regional erosion in the Late Palaeozoic and SRT activity since the Pliocene. Our results suggest that the SRT maintained a long-term average shortening rate of similar to 5-6 mm/yr and a high exhumation rate above the SRT ramp since similar to 4 Ma.
Due to the high concentration of people and infrastructures in European cities, the possible impacts of climate change are particularly high (cities' social, economic and technical vulnerabilities). Adaptation measures to reduce the sensitivity of a city to climate risks are therefore of particular importance. Nevertheless, it is also common to develop compact and dense urban areas to reduce urban sprawl. Urban infill development and sustainable spatial climate policies are thus in apparent conflict with each other. This article examines how German cities deal with the tensions between these two policy fields. Using six case studies, a new heuristic analysis method is applied. This study identifies three key governance aspects that are essential for promoting the joint implementation: instruments, organisation and interaction. Based on our case studies, we conclude that successful implementation can only be achieved through integrative governance including all three domains.
Flexural strike-slip basins
(2021)
Strike-slip faults are classically associated with pull-apart basins where continental crust is thinned between two laterally offset fault segments. We propose a subsidence mechanism to explain the formation of a new type of basin where no substantial segment offset or synstrike-slip thinning is observed. Such "flexural strike-slip basins" form due to a sediment load creating accommodation space by bending the lithosphere. We use a two-way coupling between the geodynamic code ASPECT and surface-processes code FastScape to show that flexural strike-slip basins emerge if sediment is deposited on thin lithosphere close to a strike slip fault. These conditions were met at the Andaman Basin Central fault (Andaman Sea, Indian Ocean), where seismic reflection data provide evidence of a laterally extensive flexural basin with a depocenter located parallel to the strike-slip fault trace.
The eruption frequency of geysers can be studied easily on the surface. However, details of the internal structure including possible water and gas filled chambers feeding eruptions and the driving mechanisms often remain elusive. We used a multidisciplinary network of seismometers, video cameras, water pressure sensors and one tiltmeter to study the eruptive cycle, internal structure, and mechanisms driving the eruptive cycle of Strokkur geyser in June 2018. An eruptive cycle at Strokkur always consists of four phases: (1) Eruption, (2) post-eruptive conduit refilling, (3) gas filling of the bubble trap, and (4) regular bubble collapse at shallow depth in the conduit. For a typical single eruption 19 +/- 4 bubble collapses occur in Phase 3 and 8 +/- 2 collapses in Phase 4 at a mean spacing of 1.52 +/- 0.29 and 24.5 +/- 5.9 s, respectively. These collapses release latent heat to the fluid in the bubble trap (Phase 3) and later to the fluid in the conduit (Phase 4). The latter eventually reaches thermodynamic conditions for an eruption. Single to sextuple eruptions have similar spacings between bubble collapses and are likely fed from the same bubble trap at 23.7 +/- 4.4 m depth, 13-23 m west of the conduit. However, the duration of the eruption and recharging phase linearly increases likely due to a larger water, gas and heat loss from the system. Our tremor data provides documented evidence for a bubble trap beneath a pool geyser.
We present a new autoclave that enables in situ characterization of hydrothermal fluids at high pressures and high temperatures at synchrotron x-ray radiation sources. The autoclave has been specifically designed to enable x-ray absorption spectroscopy in fluids with applications to mineral solubility and element speciation analysis in hydrothermal fluids in complex compositions. However, other applications, such as Raman spectroscopy, in high-pressure fluids are also possible with the autoclave. First experiments were run at pressures between 100 and 600 bars and at temperatures between 25 degrees C and 550 degrees C, and preliminary results on scheelite dissolution in fluids of different compositions show that the autoclave is well suited to study the behavior of ore-forming metals at P-T conditions relevant to the Earth's crust.
Concentrations of lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg), and arsenic (As) in soils at the Kpone landfill site (Ghana) were determined using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS). Further analyses allowed establishing the degree of heavy metals (HMs) pollution, suitability of the soils for agriculture, sources of the HMs and their ecological and health risks. The site was divided into five zones, A, B, C, D, and E, and in all, seventeen (17) soil samples were collected. Average concentrations of Cu fell within the allowable range for agricultural soils in all the zones while average concentrations of Pb, Zn, Hg, and As exceeded the range in some or all the zones. Concentrations of the HMs generally exceeded their respective background value, with all zones showing very high degree of HMs contamination. The pollution load index (PLI) was 16.48, signifying extreme HMs pollution of the entire site. Multivariate statistical analyses revealed that Cu, Zn, and Pb in the soils originated from the deposited waste materials as well as traffic-related activities (e.g. wear and tear of tyres, brakes, and engines) at the site. Hg also originated from the deposited waste materials as well as cement production and oil and coal combustion activities in the study area, while As derived from industrial discharges and metal smelting activities. All the zones exhibited very high ecological risk. The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks posed by the HMs were also above acceptable levels, with children being more vulnerable than adults to these health risks.
Mehrphasige DNAPL-Pools zählen zu den häufigsten Ursachen für Grundwasserkontaminationen und sind bekannt für ihre Langlebigkeit. Obwohl Untersuchungen bereits gezeigt haben, dass die Phasen sich in ihrer Wasserlöslichkeit gegenseitig beeinflussen, werden diese Interaktionen von bisherigen Modellen vernachlässigt. Aus diesem Grund wurde ein semi-analytisches Berechnungsmodell entwickelt, welches die Poolzusammensetzung als zeitlich variabel behandelt. Basierend auf dem Raoult’schen Gesetz werden für jede Komponente Molanteil, effektive Wasserlöslichkeit und schließlich der Schadstoffaustrag infolge Advektion, Dispersion und Diffusion bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse unterscheiden sich deutlich von Studien an einphasigen Pools. So wird gezeigt, dass Schadstofffrachten über die Zeit sowohl zu- als auch abnehmen können und dass ohne Berücksichtigung des Raoult’schen Gesetzes sowohl die Langlebigkeit von DNAPL-Pools als auch die Dauer bis zur Unterschreitung von Grenzwerten teils deutlich unterschätzt wird. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse zeigt zudem, dass schwer lösliche Nebenbestandteile nicht vernachlässigt werden dürfen, leicht lösliche hingegen schon.
Near-surface supergene ores of the Merensky Reef in the Bushveld Complex, South Africa, contain economic grades of platinum-group elements, however, these are currently uneconomic due to low recovery rates. This is the first study that investigates the variation in platinum-group elements in pristine and supergene samples of the Merensky Reef from five drill cores from the eastern Bushveld. The samples from the Richmond and Twickenham farms show different degrees of weathering. The whole-rock platinum-group element distribution was studied by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and the platinum-group minerals were investigated by reflected-light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and electron microprobe analysis. <br /> In pristine ("fresh") Merensky Reef samples, platinum-group elements occur mainly as discrete platinum-group minerals, such as platinum-group element-sulfides (cooperite-braggite) and laurite as well as subordinate platinum-group elementbismuthotellurides and platinum-group element-arsenides, and also in solid solution in sulfides (especially Pd in pentlandite). During weathering, Pd and S were removed, resulting in a platinum-group mineral mineralogy in the supergene Merensky Reef that mainly consists of relict platinum-group minerals, Pt-Fe alloys, and Pt-oxides/hydroxides. Additional proportions of platinum-group elements are hosted by Fe-hydroxides and secondary hydrosilicates (e.g., serpentine group minerals and chlorite). <br /> In supergene ores, only low recovery rates (ca. 40%) are achieved due to the polymodal and complex platinum-group element distribution. To achieve higher recovery rates for the platinum-group elements, hydrometallurgical or pyrometallurgical processing of the bulk ore would be required, which is not economically viable with existing technology.
Leaching zones within potash seams generally represent a significant risk to subsurface mining operations and the construction of technical caverns in salt rocks, but their temporal and spatial formation has been investigated only rudimentarily to date. To the knowledge of the authors, current reactive transport simulation implementations are not capable to address hydraulic-chemical interactions within potash salt. For this reason, a reactive transport model has been developed and complemented by an innovative approach to calculate the interchange of minerals and solution at the water-rock interface. Using this model, a scenario analysis was carried out based on a carnallite-bearing potash seam. The results show that the evolution of leaching zones depends on the mineral composition and dissolution rate of the original salt rock, and that the formation can be classified by the dimensionless parameters of Peclet (Pe) and Damkohler (Da). For Pe > 2 and Da > 1, a funnel-shaped leaching zone is formed, otherwise the dissolution front is planar. Additionally, Da > 1 results in the formation of a sylvinitic zone and a flow barrier. Most scenarios represent hybrid forms of these cases. The simulated shapes and mineralogies are confirmed by literature data and can be used to assess the hazard potential.
Barite scalings are a common cause of permanent formation damage to deep geothermal reservoirs. Well injectivity can be impaired because the ooling of saline fluids reduces the solubility of barite, and the continuous re-injection of supersaturated fluids forces barite to precipitate in the host rock. Stimulated reservoirs in the Upper Rhine Graben often have multiple relevant flow paths in the porous matrix and fracture zones, sometimes spanning multiple stratigraphical units to achieve the economically necessary injectivity. While the influence of barite scaling on injectivity has been investigated for purely porous media, the role of fractures within reservoirs consisting of both fractured and porous sections is still not well understood. Here, we present hydro-chemical simulations of a dual-layer geothermal reservoir to study the long-term impact of barite scale formation on well injectivity. Our results show that, compared to purely porous reservoirs, fractured porous reservoirs have a significantly reduced scaling risk by up to 50%, depending on the flow rate ratio of fractures. Injectivity loss is doubled, however, if the amount of active fractures is increased by one order of magnitude, while the mean fracture aperture is decreased, provided the fractured aquifer dictates the injection rate. We conclude that fractured, and especially hydraulically stimulated, reservoirs are generally less affected by barite scaling and that large, but few, fractures are favourable. We present a scaling score for fractured-porous reservoirs, which is composed of easily derivable quantities such as the radial equilibrium length and precipitation potential. This score is suggested for use approximating the scaling potential and its impact on injectivity of a fractured-porous reservoir for geothermal exploitation.
Permafrost is warming globally which leads to widespread permafrost thaw. Particularly ice-rich permafrost is vulnerable to rapid thaw and erosion, impacting whole landscapes and ecosystems. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are abrupt permafrost disturbances that expand by several meters each year and lead to an increased soil organic carbon release. Local Remote Sensing studies identified increasing RTS activity in the last two decades by increasing number of RTS or heightened RTS growth rates. However, a large-scale assessment across diverse permafrost regions and at high temporal resolution allowing to further determine RTS thaw dynamics and its main drivers is still lacking. In this study we apply the disturbance detection algorithm LandTrendr for automated large-scale RTS mapping and high temporal thaw dynamic assessment to North Siberia (8.1 x 106km2). We adapted and parametrised the temporal segmentation algorithm for abrupt disturbance detection to incorporate Landsat+Sentinel-2 mosaics, conducted spectral filtering, spatial masking and filtering, and a binary machine-learning object classification of the disturbance output to separate between RTS and false positives (F1 score: 0.609). Ground truth data for calibration and validation of the workflow was collected from 9 known RTS cluster sites using very highresolution RapidEye and PlanetScope imagery. Our study presents the first automated detection and assessment of RTS and their temporal dynamics at largescale for 2001-2019. We identified 50,895 RTS and a steady increase in RTS-affected area from 2001 to 2019 across North Siberia, with a more abrupt increase from 2016 onward. Overall the RTS-affected area increased by 331% compared to 2000 (2000: 20,158 ha, 2001-2019: 66,699 ha). Contrary to this, 5 focus sites show spatiotemporal variability in their annual RTS dynamics, with alternating periods of increased and decreased RTS development, indicating a close relationship to thaw drivers. The majority of identified RTS was active from 2000 onward and only a small proportion initiated during the assessment period, indicating that the increase in RTS-affected area was mainly caused by enlarging existing RTS and not by new RTS. The detected increase in RTS dynamics suggests advancing permafrost thaw and underlines the importance of assessing abrupt permafrost disturbances with high spatial and temporal resolution at large-scales. Obtaining such consistent disturbance products will help to parametrise regional and global climate change models.
The present work gives a detailed analysis of the metamorphic and structural evolution of the back-arc portion of the Famatinian Orogen exposed in the southern Sierra de Aconquija (Cuesta de La Chilca segment) in the Sierras Pampeanas Orientales (Eastern Pampean Sierras). The Pampeanas Orientales include from north to south the Aconquija, Ambato and Ancasti mountains. They are mainly composed of middle to high grade metasedimentary units and magmatic rocks.
At the south end of the Sierra de Aconquija, along an east to west segment extending over nearly 10 km (Cuesta de La Chilca), large volumes of metasedimentary rocks crop out. The eastern metasediments were defined as members of the El Portezuelo Metamorphic-Igneous Complex (EPMIC) or Eastern block and the western ones relate to the Quebrada del Molle Metamorphic Complex (QMMC) or Western block. The two blocks are divided by the La Chilca Shear Zone, which is reactivated as the Rio Chanarito fault.
The EPMIC, forming the hanging wall, is composed of schists, gneisses and rare amphibolites, calc- silicate schists, marbles and migmatites. The rocks underwent multiple episodes of deformation and a late high strain-rate episode with gradually increasing mylonitization to the west. Metamorphism progrades from a M-1 phase to the peak M-3, characterized by the reactions: Qtz + Pl + Bt +/- Ms -> Grt + Bt(2) + Pl(2) +/- Sil +/- Kfs, Qtz + Bt + Sil -> Crd + Kfs and Qtz + Grt + Sil -> Crd. The M-3 assemblage is coeval with the dominant foliation related to a third deformational phase (D-3).
The QMMC, forming the foot wall, is made up of fine-grained banded quartz - biotite schists with quartz veins and quartz-feldspar-rich pegmatites. To the east, schists are also overprinted by mylonitization. The M-3 peak assemblage is quartz + biotite + plagioclase +/- garnet +/- sillimanite +/- muscovite +/- ilmenite +/- magnetite +/- apatite.
The studied segment suffered multiphase deformation and metamorphism. Some of these phases can be correlated between both blocks. D-1 is locally preserved in scarce outcrops in the EPMIC but is the dominant in the QMMC, where S-1 is nearly parallel to S-0. In the EPMIC, D-2 is represented by the S-2 foliation, related to the F-2 folding that overprints S-1, with dominant strike NNW - SSE and high angles dip to the E. D-3 in the EPMIC have F-3 folds with axis oblique to S-2; the S-3 foliation has striking NW - SE dipping steeply to the E or W and develops interference patterns. In the QMMC, S-2 (D-2) is a discontinuous cleavage oblique to S-1 and transposed by S-3 (D-3), subparallel to S-1. Such structures in the QMMC developed at subsolidus conditions and could be correlated to those of the EPMIC, which formed under higher P-T conditions. The penetrative deformation D-2 in the EPMIC occurred during a prograde path with syntectonic growth of garnet reaching P-T conditions of 640 degrees C and 0.54 GPa in the EPMIC. This stage was followed by a penetrative deformation D-3 with syn-kinematic growth of garnet, cordierite and plagioclase. Peak P-T conditions calculated for M-3 are 710 degrees C and 0.60 GPa, preserved in the western part of the EPMIC, west of the unnamed fault.
The schists from the QMMC suffered the early low grade M-1 metamorphism with minimum PT conditions of ca 400 degrees C and 0.35 GPa, comparable to the fine schists (M-1) outcropping to the east. The D-2 deformation is associated with the prograde M-2 metamorphism. The penetrative D-3 stage is related to a medium grade metamorphism M-3, with peak conditions at ca 590 degrees C and 0.55 GPa.
The superimposed stages of deformation and metamorphism reaching high P-T conditions followed by isothermal decompression, defining a clockwise orogenic P-T path. During the Lower Paleozoic, folds were superimposed and recrystallization as well as partial melting at peak conditions occurred. Similar characteristics were described from the basement from other Famatinian-dominated locations of the Sierra de Aconquija and other ranges of the Sierras Pampeanas Orientales.
In this article, we address the question of how observed ground-motion data can most effectively be modeled for engineering seismological purposes. Toward this goal, we use a data-driven method, based on a deep-learning autoencoder with a variable number of nodes in the bottleneck layer, to determine how many parameters are needed to reconstruct synthetic and observed ground-motion data in terms of their median values and scatter. The reconstruction error as a function of the number of nodes in the bottleneck is used as an indicator of the underlying dimensionality of ground-motion data, that is, the minimum number of predictor variables needed in a ground-motion model. Two synthetic and one observed datasets are studied to prove the performance of the proposed method. We find that mapping ground-motion data to a 2D manifold primarily captures magnitude and distance information and is suited for an approximate data reconstruction. The data reconstruction improves with an increasing number of bottleneck nodes of up to three and four, but it saturates if more nodes are added to the bottleneck.
Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.
The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geological structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, translithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north-south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa-Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8mm yr(-1) in a largely trench-normal direction except near eastern Crete where variably oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy-Pliny-Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation.
Mineral resource exploration and mining is an essential part of today's high-tech industry. Elements such as rare-earth elements (REEs) and copper are, therefore, in high demand. Modern exploration techniques from multiple platforms (e.g., spaceborne and airborne), to detect and map the spectral characteristics of the materials of interest, require spectral libraries as an essential reference. They include field and laboratory spectral information in combination with geochemical analyses for validation. Here, we present a collection of REE- and copper-related hyperspectral spectra with associated geochemical information. The libraries contain reflectance spectra from rare-earth element oxides, REE-bearing minerals, copper-bearing minerals and mine surface samples from the Apliki copper-gold-pyrite mine in the Republic of Cyprus. The samples were measured with the HySpex imaging spectrometers in the visible and near infrared (VNIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) range (400-2500 nm). The geochemical validation of each sample is provided with the reflectance spectra. The spectral libraries are openly available to assist future mineral mapping campaigns and laboratory spectroscopic analyses. The spectral libraries and corresponding geochemistry are published via GFZ Data Services with the following DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.1.4.2019.004 (13 REE-bearing minerals and 16 oxide powders, Koerting et al., 2019a), https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.1.4.2019.003 (20 copper-bearing minerals, Koellner et al., 2019), and https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.1.4.2019.005 (37 copper-bearing surface material samples from the Apliki coppergold-pyrite mine in Cyprus, Koerting et al., 2019b). All spectral libraries are united and comparable by the internally consistent method of hyperspectral data acquisition in the laboratory.
Tectonically active coasts are dynamic environments characterized by the presence of multiple marine terraces formed by the combined effects of wave erosion, tectonic uplift, and sea-level oscillations at glacialcycle timescales. Well-preserved erosional terraces from the last interglacial sea-level highstand are ideal marker horizons for reconstructing past sea-level positions and calculating vertical displacement rates. We carried out an almost continuous mapping of the last interglacial marine terrace along similar to 5000 km of the western coast of South America between 1 degrees N and 40 degrees S. We used quantitatively replicable approaches constrained by published terrace-age estimates to ultimately compare elevations and patterns of uplifted terraces with tectonic and climatic parameters in order to evaluate the controlling mechanisms for the formation and preservation of marine terraces and crustal deformation. Uncertainties were estimated on the basis of measurement errors and the distance from referencing points. Overall, our results indicate a median elevation of 30.1 m, which would imply a median uplift rate of 0.22 m kyr(-1) averaged over the past similar to 125 kyr. The patterns of terrace elevation and uplift rate display high-amplitude (similar to 100-200 m) and long-wavelength (similar to 10(2) km) structures at the Manta Peninsula (Ecuador), the San Juan de Marcona area (central Peru), and the Arauco Peninsula (south-central Chile). Medium-wavelength structures occur at the Mejillones Peninsula and Topocalma in Chile, while short-wavelength (< 10 km) features are for instance located near Los Vilos, Valparaiso, and Carranza, Chile. We interpret the long-wavelength deformation to be controlled by deep-seated processes at the plate interface such as the subduction of major bathymetric anomalies like the Nazca and Carnegie ridges. In contrast, short-wavelength deformation may be primarily controlled by sources in the upper plate such as crustal faulting, which, however, may also be associated with the subduction of topographically less pronounced bathymetric anomalies. Latitudinal differences in climate additionally control the formation and preservation of marine terraces. Based on our synopsis we propose that increasing wave height and tidal range result in enhanced erosion and morphologically well-defined marine terraces in south-central Chile. Our study emphasizes the importance of using systematic measurements and uniform, quantitative methodologies to characterize and correctly interpret marine terraces at regional scales, especially if they are used to unravel the tectonic and climatic forcing mechanisms of their formation. This database is an integral part of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), published online at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4309748 (Freisleben et al., 2020).
Nature-based solutions (NBS) are seen as a promising adaptation measure that sustainably deals with diverse societal challenges, while simultaneously delivering multiple benefits. Nature-based solutions have been highlighted as a resilient and sustainable means of mitigating floods and other hazards globally. This study examined diverging conceptualizations of NBS, as well as the attitudinal (for example, emotions and beliefs) and contextual (for example, legal and political aspects) barriers and drivers of NBS for flood risks in South Korea. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 experts and focused on the topic of flood risk measures and NBS case studies. The analysis found 11 barriers and five drivers in the attitudinal domain, and 13 barriers and two drivers in the contextual domain. Most experts see direct monetary benefits as an important attitudinal factor for the public. Meanwhile, the cost-effectiveness of NBS and their capacity to cope with flood risks were deemed influential factors that could lead decision makers to opt for NBS. Among the contextual factors, insufficient systems to integrate NBS in practice and the ideologicalization of NBS policy were found to be peculiar barriers, which hinder consistent realization of initiatives and a long-term national plan for NBS. Understanding the barriers and drivers related to the mainstreaming of NBS is critical if we are to make the most of such solutions for society and nature. It is also essential that we have a shared definition, expectation, and vision of NBS.
Transport properties of potential host rocks for nuclear waste disposal are typically determined in laboratory or in-situ experiments under geochemically controlled and constant conditions. Such a homogeneous assumption is no longer applicable on the host rock scale as can be seen from the pore water profiles of the potential host rock Opalinus Clay at Mont Terri (Switzerland). The embedding aquifers are the hydro-geological boundaries, that established gradients in the 210 m thick low permeable section through diffusive exchange over millions of years. Present-day pore water profiles were confirmed by a data-driven as well as by a conceptual scenario. Based on the modelled profiles, the influence of the geochemical gradient on uranium migration was quantified by comparing the distances after one million years with results of common homogeneous models. Considering the heterogeneous system, uranium migrated up to 24 m farther through the formation depending on the source term position within the gradient and on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide pCO2 of the system. Migration lengths were almost equal for single- and multicomponent diffusion. Differences can predominantly be attributed to changes in the sorption capacity, whereby pCO2 governs how strong uranium migration is affected by the geochemical gradient. Thus, the governing parameters for uranium migration in the Opalinus Clay can be ordered in descending priority: pCO2, geochemical gradients, mineralogical heterogeneity.</p>