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Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial markets. Concepts, such as tipping points, networks, contagion, feedback, and resilience have entered the financial and regulatory lexicon, but actual use of complexity models and results remains at an early stage. Recent insights and techniques offer potential for better monitoring and management of highly interconnected economic and financial systems and, thus, may help anticipate and manage future crises.
It is argued that, despite differences in cultural norms and practices, the evidence for a link between violent media use and aggression is remarkably consistent across different countries. Along with evidence that different operationalizations of violent media use also converge across countries, these findings strengthen the conclusion that violent media are a risk factor for aggression and validate the psychological explanations for these effects. However, we need comparative studies based on a consistent methodology and a theory-based selection of cultural difference variables to properly examine the potential impact of culture on the association between violent media use and aggression.
Abrupt monsoon transitions as seen in paleorecords can be explained by moisture-advection feedback
(2016)
Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380km(2)). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a no-forecast scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.
BACK PAIN: THE STUDY OF MECHANISMS AND THE TRANSLATION IN INTERVENTIONS WITHIN THE MISPEX NETWORK
(2016)
We investigated the possibility to identify motor units (MUs) with high-density surface electromyography (HDEMG) over experimental sessions in different days. 10 subjects performed submaximal knee extensions across three sessions in three days separated by one week, while EMG was recorded from the vastus medialis muscle with high-density electrode grids. The shapes of the MU action potentials (MUAPs) over multiple channels extracted from HDEMG decomposition were matched across sessions by cross-correlation. Forty and twenty percent of the MUs decomposed could be tracked across two and three sessions, respectively (average cross correlation 0.85 +/- 0.04). The estimated properties of the matched motor units were similar across the sessions. For example, mean discharge rate and recruitment thresholds were measured with an intra-class correlation coefficient (ICCs) > 0.80. These results strongly suggest that the same MUs were indeed identified across sessions. This possibility will allow monitoring changes in MU properties following interventions or during the progression of neuromuscular disorders.
Prevention of Cognitive Decline: A Physical Exercise Perspective on Brain Health in the Long Run
(2016)
Twenty-four scientists met at Aschauhof, Altenhof, Germany, to discuss the associations between child growth and development, and nutrition, health, environment and psychology. Meta-analyses of body height, height variability and household inequality, in historic and modern growth studies published since 1794, highlighting the enormously flexible patterns of child and adolescent height and weight increments throughout history which do not only depend on genetics, prenatal development, nutrition, health, and economic circumstances, but reflect social interactions. A Quality of Life in Short Stature Youth Questionnaire was presented to cross-culturally assess health-related quality of life in children. Changes of child body proportions in recent history, the relation between height and longevity in historic Dutch samples and also measures of body height in skeletal remains belonged to the topics of this meeting. Bayesian approaches and Monte Carlo simulations offer new statistical tools for the study of human growth.