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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (3700) (remove)
Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935–1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985–2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.
Landslides are frequent natural hazards in rugged terrain, when the resisting frictional force of the surface of rupture yields to the gravitational force. These forces are functions of geological and morphological factors, such as angle of internal friction, local slope gradient or curvature, which remain static over hundreds of years; whereas more dynamic triggering events, such as rainfall and earthquakes, compromise the force balance by temporarily reducing resisting forces or adding transient loads. This thesis investigates landslide distribution and orientation due to landslide triggers (e.g. rainfall) at different scales (6-4∙10^5 km^2) and aims to link rainfall movement with the landslide distribution. It additionally explores the local impacts of the extreme rainstorms on landsliding and the role of precursory stability conditions that could be induced by an earlier trigger, such as an earthquake.
Extreme rainfall is a common landslide trigger. Although several studies assessed rainfall intensity and duration to study the distribution of thus triggered landslides, only a few case studies quantified spatial rainfall patterns (i.e. orographic effect). Quantifying the regional trajectories of extreme rainfall could aid predicting landslide prone regions in Japan. To this end, I combined a non-linear correlation metric, namely event synchronization, and radial statistics to assess the general pattern of extreme rainfall tracks over distances of hundreds of kilometers using satellite based rainfall estimates. Results showed that, although the increase in rainfall intensity and duration positively correlates with landslide occurrence, the trajectories of typhoons and frontal storms were insufficient to explain landslide distribution in Japan. Extreme rainfall trajectories inclined northwestwards and were concentrated along some certain locations, such as coastlines of southern Japan, which was unnoticed in the landslide distribution of about 5000 rainfall-triggered landslides. These landslides seemed to respond to the mean annual rainfall rates.
Above mentioned findings suggest further investigation on a more local scale to better understand the mechanistic response of landscape to extreme rainfall in terms of landslides. On May 2016 intense rainfall struck southern Germany triggering high waters and landslides. The highest damage was reported at the Braunsbach, which is located on the tributary-mouth fan formed by the Orlacher Bach. Orlacher Bach is a ~3 km long creek that drains a catchment of about ~6 km^2. I visited this catchment in June 2016 and mapped 48 landslides along the creek. Such high landslide activity was not reported in the nearby catchments within ~3300 km^2, despite similar rainfall intensity and duration based on weather radar estimates. My hypothesis was that several landslides were triggered by rainfall-triggered flash floods that undercut hillslope toes along the Orlacher Bach. I found that morphometric features such as slope and curvature play an important role in landslide distribution on this micro scale study site (<10 km^2). In addition, the high number of landslides along the Orlacher Bach could also be boosted by accumulated damages on hillslopes due karst weathering over longer time scales.
Precursory damages on hillslopes could also be induced by past triggering events that effect landscape evolution, but this interaction is hard to assess independently from the latest trigger. For example, an earthquake might influence the evolution of a landscape decades long, besides its direct impacts, such as landslides that follow the earthquake. Here I studied the consequences of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (MW 7.1) that triggered some 1500 landslides in an area of ~4000 km^2 in central Kyushu, Japan. Topography, i.e. local slope and curvature, both amplified and attenuated seismic waves, thus controlling the failure mechanism of those landslides (e.g. progressive). I found that topography fails in explaining the distribution and the preferred orientation of the landslides after the earthquake; instead the landslides were concentrated around the northeast of the rupture area and faced mostly normal to the rupture plane. This preferred location of the landslides was dominated mainly by the directivity effect of the strike-slip earthquake, which is the propagation of wave energy along the fault in the rupture direction; whereas amplitude variations of the seismic radiation altered the preferred orientation. I suspect that the earthquake directivity and the asymmetry of seismic radiation damaged hillslopes at those preferred locations increasing landslide susceptibility. Hence a future weak triggering event, e.g. scattered rainfall, could further trigger landslides at those damaged hillslopes.
In this study, the spatial and temporal impacts of the Ataturk Dam on agro-meteorological aspects of the Southeastern Anatolia region have been investigated. Change detection and environmental impacts due to water-reserve changes in Ataturk Dam Lake have been determined and evaluated using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imageries and meteorological datasets within a period of 1984-2011. These time series have been evaluated for three time periods. Dam construction period constitutes the first part of the study. Land cover/use changes especially on agricultural fields under the Ataturk Dam Lake and its vicinity have been identified between the periods of 1984-1992. The second period comprises the 10-year period after the completion of filling up the reservoir in 1992. At this period, Landsat and meteorological time-series analyses are examined to assess the impact of the Ataturk Dam Lake on selected irrigated agricultural areas. For the last 9-year period from 2002 to 2011, the relationships between seasonal water-reserve changes and irrigated plains under changing climatic factors primarily driving vegetation activity (monthly, seasonal, and annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, humidity) on the watershed have been investigated using a 30-year meteorological time series. The results showed that approximately 368 km(2) of agricultural fields have been affected because of inundation due to the Ataturk Dam Lake. However, irrigated agricultural fields have been increased by 56.3% of the total area (1552 of 2756 km(2)) on Harran Plain within the period of 1984-2011.
Kijko et al. (2016) present various methods to estimate parameters that are relevant for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. One of these parameters, although not the most influential, is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). I show that the proposed estimation of m(max) is based on an erroneous equation related to a misuse of the estimator in Cooke (1979) and leads to unstable results. So far, reported finite estimations of m(max) arise from data selection, because the estimator in Kijko et al. (2016) diverges with finite probability. This finding is independent of the assumed distribution of earthquake magnitudes. For the specific choice of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, I illustrate the problems by deriving explicit equations. Finally, I conclude that point estimators are generally not a suitable approach to constrain m(max).
Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale
(2018)
Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.
Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.
Marine sedimentary archives are routinely used to reconstruct past environmental changes. In many cases, bioturbation and sedimentary mixing affect the proxy time-series and the age-depth relationship. While idealized models of bioturbation exist, they usually assume homogeneous mixing, thus that a single sample is representative for the sediment layer it is sampled from.
However, it is largely unknown to which extent this assumption holds for sediments used for paleoclimate reconstructions.
To shed light on
1) the age-depth relationship and its full uncertainty,
2) the magnitude of mixing processes affecting the downcore proxy variations, and
3) the representativity of the discrete sample for the sediment layer, we designed and performed a case study on South China Sea sediment material which was collected using a box corer and which covers the last glacial cycle.
Using the radiocarbon content of foraminiferal tests as a tracer of time, we characterize the spatial age-heterogeneity of sediments in a three-dimensional setup. In total, 118 radiocarbon measurements were performed on defined small- and large-volume bulk samples ( similar to 200 specimens each) to investigate the horizontal heterogeneity of the sediment. Additionally, replicated measurements on small numbers of specimens (10 x 5 specimens) were performed to assess the heterogeneity within a sample volume. Visual assessment of X-ray images and a quantitative assessment of the mixing strength show typical mixing from bioturbation corresponding to around 10 cm mixing depth.
Notably, our 3D radiocarbon distribution reveals that the horizontal heterogeneity (up to 1,250 years), contributing to the age uncertainty, is several times larger than the typically assumed radiocarbon based age-model error (single errors up to 250 years). Furthermore, the assumption of a perfectly bioturbated layer with no mixing underneath is not met.
Our analysis further demonstrates that the age-heterogeneity might be a function of sample size; smaller samples might contain single features from the incomplete mixing and are thus less representative than larger samples.
We provide suggestions for future studies, optimal sampling strategies for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and realistic uncertainty in age models, as well as discuss possible implications for the interpretation of paleoclimate records.
Throughout the last ~3 million years, the Earth's climate system was characterised by cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. The current warm period, the Holocene, is comparably stable and stands out from this long-term cyclicality. However, since the industrial revolution, the climate has been increasingly affected by a human-induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. While instrumental observations are used to describe changes over the past ~200 years, indirect observations via proxy data are the main source of information beyond this instrumental era. These data are indicators of past climatic conditions, stored in palaeoclimate archives around the Earth. The proxy signal is affected by processes independent of the prevailing climatic conditions. In particular, for sedimentary archives such as marine sediments and polar ice sheets, material may be redistributed during or after the initial deposition and subsequent formation of the archive. This leads to noise in the records challenging reliable reconstructions on local or short time scales. This dissertation characterises the initial deposition of the climatic signal and quantifies the resulting archive-internal heterogeneity and its influence on the observed proxy signal to improve the representativity and interpretation of climate reconstructions from marine sediments and ice cores.
To this end, the horizontal and vertical variation in radiocarbon content of a box-core from the South China Sea is investigated. The three-dimensional resolution is used to quantify the true uncertainty in radiocarbon age estimates from planktonic foraminifera with an extensive sampling scheme, including different sample volumes and replicated measurements of batches of small and large numbers of specimen. An assessment on the variability stemming from sediment mixing by benthic organisms reveals strong internal heterogeneity. Hence, sediment mixing leads to substantial time uncertainty of proxy-based reconstructions with error terms two to five times larger than previously assumed.
A second three-dimensional analysis of the upper snowpack provides insights into the heterogeneous signal deposition and imprint in snow and firn. A new study design which combines a structure-from-motion photogrammetry approach with two-dimensional isotopic data is performed at a study site in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The photogrammetry method reveals an intermittent character of snowfall, a layer-wise snow deposition with substantial contributions by wind-driven erosion and redistribution to the final spatially variable accumulation and illustrated the evolution of stratigraphic noise at the surface. The isotopic data show the preservation of stratigraphic noise within the upper firn column, leading to a spatially variable climate signal imprint and heterogeneous layer thicknesses. Additional post-depositional modifications due to snow-air exchange are also investigated, but without a conclusive quantification of the contribution to the final isotopic signature.
Finally, this characterisation and quantification of the complex signal formation in marine sediments and polar ice contributes to a better understanding of the signal content in proxy data which is needed to assess the natural climate variability during the Holocene.
The Lombok Island is part of the Lesser Sunda Islands (LSI) region – Indonesia, situated along the Sunda-Banda Arcs transition. It lies between zones characterized by the highest intensity geomagnetic anomalies of this region, remarkable as one of the eight most important features provided on the 1st edition of World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map. The seismicity of this region during the last years is high, while the geological and tectonic structures of this region are still not known in detail. Some local magnetic surveys have been conducted previously during 2004–2005. However, due to the lower accuracy of the used equipment and a limited number of stations, the qualities of the previous measurements are questionable for more interpretations. Thus a more detailed study to better characterize the geomagnetic anomaly -spatially and temporally- over this region and to deeply explore the related regional geology, tectonic and seismicity is needed. The intriguing geomagnetic anomalies over this island region vis-à-vis the socio-cultural situations lead to a study with a special aim to contribute to the assessment of the potential of natural hazards (earthquakes) as well as a new natural resource of energy (geothermal potential).
This study is intended to discuss several crucial questions, including:
i. The real values and the general pattern of magnetic anomalies over the island, as well as their relation to the regional one.
ii. Any temporal changes of regional anomalies over the recent time.
iii. The relationships between the anomalies and the geology and tectonic of this region, especially new insights that can be gained from the geomagnetic observations.
iv. The relationships between the anomalies and the high seismicity of this region, especially some possible links between their variations to the earthquake occurrence.
First, all available geomagnetic data of this region and results of the previous measurements are evaluated. The new geomagnetic surveys carried out in 2006 and 2007/2008 are then presented in detail, followed by the general description of data processing and data quality evaluation. The new results show the general pattern of contiguous negative-positive anomalies, revealing an active arc related subduction region. They agree with earlier results obtained by satellite, aeromagnetic, and marine platforms; and provide a much more detailed picture of the strong anomalies on this island. The temporal characteristics of regional anomalies show a decreasing strength of the dipolar structure, where decreasing of the field intensities is faster than the regional secular variations as defined by the global model (the 10th generation of IGRF). However, some exceptions (increasing of anomalies) have to be noted and further analyzed for several locations.
Thereafter, simultaneous magnetic anomalies and gravity models are generated and interpreted in detail. Three profiles are investigated, providing new insights into the tectonics and geological evolution of the Lombok Island. Geological structure of this island can be divided as two main parts with different consecutive ages: an old part (from late Oligocene to late Miocene) in the South and a younger one (from Pliocene to Holocene) in the North. A new subduction in the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) is considered mature and active, showing a tendency of progressive subduction during 2005–2008. Geothermal potential in the northern part of this island can be mapped in more detail using these geomagnetic regional survey data. The earlier estimates of reservoir depth can be confirmed further to a depth of about 800 m. Evaluation of temporal changes of the anomalies gives some possible explanations related to the evolution of the back arc region, large stress accumulations over the LSI region, a specific electrical characteristic of the crust of the Lombok Island region, and a structural discontinuity over this island.
Based on the results, several possible advanced studies involving geomagnetic data and anomaly investigations over the Lombok Island region can be suggested for the future:
i. Monitoring the subduction activity of the back arc region (the Flores Thrust zone) and the accumulated stress over the LSI, that could contribute to middle term hazard assessment with a special attention to the earthquake occurrence in this region. Continuous geomagnetic field measurements from a geomagnetic observatory which can be established in the northern part of the Lombok Island and systematic measurements at several repeat stations can be useful in this regards.
ii. Investigating the specific electrical characteristic (high conductivity) of the crust, that is probably related to some aquifer layers or metal mineralization. It needs other complementary geophysical methods, such as magnetotelluric (MT) or preferably DC resistivity measurements.
iii. Determining the existence of an active structural fault over the Lombok Island, that could be related to long term hazard assessment over the LSI region. This needs an extension of geomagnetic investigations over the neighbouring islands (the Bali Island in the West and the Sumbawa Island in the East; probably also the Sumba and the Flores islands). This seems possible because the regional magnetic lineations might be used to delineate some structural discontinuities, based on the modelling of contrasts in crustal magnetizations.
During the period 750-600 Ma ago, prior to the final break-up of the supercontinent Rodinia, the crust of both the North American Craton and Baltica was intruded by significant amounts of rift-related magmas originating from the mantle. In the Proterozoic crust of Southern Norway, the 580 Ma old Fen carbonatite-ultramafic complex is a representative of this type of rocks. In this paper, we report the occurrence of an ultramafic lamprophyre dyke which possibly is linked to the Fen complex, although Ar-40/Ar-39 data from phenocrystic phlogopite from the dyke gave an age of 686 +/- 9 Ma. The lamprophyre dyke was recently discovered in one of the Kongsberg silver mines at Vinoren, Norway. Whole rock geochemistry, geochronological and mineralogical data from the ultramafic lamprophyre dyke are presented aiming to elucidate its origin and possible geodynamic setting. From the whole-rock composition of the Vinoren dyke, the rock could be recognized as transitional between carbonatite and kimberlite-II (orangeite). From its diagnostic mineralogy, the rock is classified as aillikite. The compositions and xenocrystic nature of several of the major and accessory minerals from the Vinoren aillikite are characteristic for diamondiferous rocks (kimberlites/lamproites/UML): Phlogopite with kinoshitalite-rich rims, chromite-spinel-ulvospinel series, Mg- and Mn-rich ilmenites, rutile and lucasite-(Ce). We suggest that the aillikite melt formed during partial melting of a MARID (mica-amphibole-rutile-ilmenite-diopside)-like source under CO2 fluxing. The pre-rifting geodynamic setting of the Vinoren aillikite before the Rodinia supercontinent breakup suggests a relatively thick SCLM (Subcontinental Lithospheric Mantle) during this stage and might indicate a diamond-bearing source for the parental melt. This is in contrast to the about 100 Ma younger Fen complex, which were derived from a thin SCLM.
During eruptive activity of andesitic stratovolcanoes, the extrusion of lava domes, their collapse and intermittent explosions are common volcanic hazards. Many lava domes grow in a preferred direction, in turn affecting the direction of lava flows and pyroclastic density currents. Access to active lava domes is difficult and hazardous, so detailed data characterizing lava dome growth are typically limited, keeping the processes controlling the directionality of extrusions unclear. Here we combine TerraSAR-X satellite radar observations with high-resolution airborne photogrammetry to assess morphological changes, and perform finite element modeling to investigate the impact of loading stress on shallow magma ascent directions associated with lava dome extrusion and crater formation at Volcan de Colima, Mexico. The TerraSAR-X data, acquired in similar to 1-m resolution spotlight mode, enable us to derive a chronology of the eruptive processes from intensity-based time-lapse observations of the general crater and dome evolution. The satellite images are complemented by close-range airborne photos, processed by the Structure-from-Motion workflow. This allows the derivation of high-resolution digital elevation models, providing insight into detailed loading and unloading features. During the observation period from Jan-2013 to Feb-2016, we identify a dominantly W-directed dome growth and lava flow production until Jan-2015. In Feb-2015, following the removal of the active summit dome, the surface crater widened and elongated along a NE-SW axis. Later in May-2015, a new dome grew toward the SW of the crater while a separate vent developed in the NE of the crater, reflecting a change in the direction of magma ascent and possible conduit bifurcation. Finite element models show a significant stress change in agreement with the observed magma ascent direction changes in response to the changing surface loads, both for loading (dome growth) and unloading (crater forming excavation) cases. These results allow insight into shallow dome growth dynamics and the migration of magma ascent in response to changing volcano summit morphology. They further highlight the importance of detailed volcano summit morphology surveillance, as changes in direction or location of dome extrusion may have major implications regarding the directions of potential volcanic hazards, such as pyroclastic density currents generated by dome collapse.
Lava domes are severely hazardous, mound-shaped extrusions of highly viscous lava and commonly erupt at many active stratovolcanoes around the world. Due to gradual growth and flank oversteepening, such lava domes regularly experience partial or full collapses, resulting in destructive and far-reaching pyroclastic density currents. They are also associated with cyclic explosive activity as the complex interplay of cooling, degassing, and solidification of dome lavas regularly causes gas pressurizations on the dome or the underlying volcano conduit. Lava dome extrusions can last from days to decades, further highlighting the need for accurate and reliable monitoring data.
This thesis aims to improve our understanding of lava dome processes and to contribute to the monitoring and prediction of hazards posed by these domes. The recent rise and sophistication of photogrammetric techniques allows for the extraction of observational data in unprecedented detail and creates ideal tools for accomplishing this purpose. Here, I study natural lava dome extrusions as well as laboratory-based analogue models of lava dome extrusions and employ photogrammetric monitoring by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Particle-Image-Velocimetry (PIV) techniques. I primarily use aerial photography data obtained by helicopter, airplanes, Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UAS) or ground-based timelapse cameras. Firstly, by combining a long time-series of overflight data at Volcán de Colima, México, with seismic and satellite radar data, I construct a detailed timeline of lava dome and crater evolution. Using numerical model, the impact of the extrusion on dome morphology and loading stress is further evaluated and an impact on the growth direction is identified, bearing important implications for the location of collapse hazards. Secondly, sequential overflight surveys at the Santiaguito lava dome, Guatemala, reveal surface motion data in high detail. I quantify the growth of the lava dome and the movement of a lava flow, showing complex motions that occur on different timescales and I provide insight into rock properties relevant for hazard assessment inferred purely by photogrammetric processing of remote sensing data. Lastly, I recreate artificial lava dome and spine growth using analogue modelling under controlled conditions, providing new insights into lava extrusion processes and structures as well as the conditions in which they form.
These findings demonstrate the capabilities of photogrammetric data analyses to successfully monitor lava dome growth and evolution while highlighting the advantages of complementary modelling methods to explain the observed phenomena. The results presented herein further bear important new insights and implications for the hazards posed by lava domes.
The sidi Mohamed peridotites (Edough Massif, NE Algeria) - evidence for an upper mantle origin
(2013)
The Hercynian Edough massif is the easternmost crystalline massif of the Algerian coast. It consists of two tectonically superposed units composed of micaschists, gneisses, and peridotite. This study concentrates on the small and isolated Sidi Mohamed peridotite outcrop area (0.03 km(2)). The Sidi Mohamed peridotite is composed mainly of harzburgites (Mg-rich olivine and orthopyroxene as major minerals). The Ni (2051-2920 ppm), Cr (2368-5514 ppm) and MgO (similar to 28-35 wt.%) whole-rock composition and the relative depletion in Nb make these harzburgites comparable to depleted peridotites related to a subduction zone. We suggest that the Sidi Mohamed ultramafic body was derived directly from the upper mantle and tectonically incorporated into the gneiss units of the Edough metamorphic core complex in a subduction environment.
Determination of the source rocks for the diatexites from the Edough Massif, Annaba, NE Algeria
(2012)
The crystalline Edough Massif is located in the oriental part of the Algerian coastline. It consists of two tectonically superposed units of gneisses, augen-gneisses and migmatitic gneisses in the lower unit and micaschists in the upper unit. The crystalline rocks underwent a low to moderate degree of metamorphism; the gneisses suffered partial melting. They display migmatitic features such as nebulitic structures with contorted leucosome layers and K-feldspar porphyroblasts and thus can be classified as diatexites. The mineralogical composition of these rocks is very homogenous and consists of K-feldspar, micas and quartz. The feldspar-rich, arkosic nature of the outcrop implies a granitic source rock. High K2O/Na2O ratios and high A/CNK > 1.1 indicate an S-type granite source and a peraluminous composition of the protolith respectively. Chondrite normalized REE distribution patterns of the Edough diatexites show gently inclined patterns with a minor negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.36-0.49), which points to a very slightly differentiated granitic source. The REE pattern and trace element data of the diatexites are similar to those of average Proterozoic upper continental crust, which suggests that they are derived mainly from upper continental crust and were deposited in continental margins.
The study presents the first evidence of metamorphosed submarine ashes in the Edough Massif, in northeastern Algeria. It occurs below the greenschist-facies Tellian units that represent the thrusted Mesozoic to Eocene passive paleomargin of northern Africa deposited on thinned continental crust. The metamorphic complex consists of tectonically superposed units composed of gneisses (lower unit) and micaschists (upper unit). At the Cap de Garde, these units enclose an "intermediate unit" composed of micaschists and meter-thick layers of marbles, which are sometimes intercalated with amphibolites. The latter occur as discontinuous small lenses and layers. The amphibolites are parallel to the primary bedding of the marbles and the main foliation. Chemical markers and field observations indicate that they are metamorphic equivalents of basic igneous rocks. The lenticular character, low thickness and multiple intercalations with marine sediments and the unusual high lithium concentrations suggest subaqueous near-source basaltic ash-fall deposits in a marine environment. (C) 2014 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7% of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6% of them being resolved to species and 25.8% to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations - after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2% of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
Soils in various places of the Panama Canal Watershed feature a low saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at shallow depth, which promotes overland-flow generation and associated flashy catchment responses. In undisturbed forests of these areas, overland flow is concentrated in flow lines that extend the channel network and provide hydrological connectivity between hillslopes and streams. To understand the dynamics of overland-flow connectivity, as well as the impact of connectivity on catchment response, we studied an undisturbed headwater catchment by monitoring overland-flow occurrence in all flow lines and discharge, suspended sediment, and total phosphorus at the catchment outlet. We find that connectivity is strongly influenced by seasonal variation in antecedent wetness and can develop even under light rainfall conditions. Connectivity increased rapidly as rainfall frequency increased, eventually leading to full connectivity and surficial drainage of entire hillslopes. Connectivity was nonlinearly related to catchment response. However, additional information on factors such as overland-flow volume would be required to constrain relationships between connectivity, stormflow, and the export of suspended sediment and phosphorus. The effort to monitor those factors would be substantial, so we advocate applying the established links between rain event characteristics, drainage network expansion by flow lines, and catchment response for predictive modeling and catchment classification in forests of the Panama Canal Watershed and in similar regions elsewhere.
What is the most appropriate sampling scheme to estimate event-based average throughfall? A satisfactory answer to this seemingly simple question has yet to be found, a failure which we attribute to previous efforts' dependence on empirical studies. Here we try to answer this question by simulating stochastic throughfall fields based on parameters for statistical models of large monitoring data sets. We subsequently sampled these fields with different sampling designs and variable sample supports. We evaluated the performance of a particular sampling scheme with respect to the uncertainty of possible estimated means of throughfall volumes. Even for a relative error limit of 20%, an impractically large number of small, funnel-type collectors would be required to estimate mean throughfall, particularly for small events. While stratification of the target area is not superior to simple random sampling, cluster random sampling involves the risk of being less efficient. A larger sample support, e.g., the use of trough-type collectors, considerably reduces the necessary sample sizes and eliminates the sensitivity of the mean to outliers. Since the gain in time associated with the manual handling of troughs versus funnels depends on the local precipitation regime, the employment of automatically recording clusters of long troughs emerges as the most promising sampling scheme. Even so, a relative error of less than 5% appears out of reach for throughfall under heterogeneous canopies. We therefore suspect a considerable uncertainty of input parameters for interception models derived from measured throughfall, in particular, for those requiring data of small throughfall events.
In the humid tropics, continuing high deforestation rates are seen alongside an increasing expansion of secondary forests. In order to understand and model the consequences of these dynamic land-use changes for regional water cycles, the response of soil hydraulic properties to forest disturbance and recovery has to be quantified.At a site in the Brazilian Amazonia, we annually monitored soil infiltrability and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at 12.5, 20 cm, and 50 cm soil depth after manual forest conversion to pasture (year zero to four after pasture establishment), and during secondary succession after pasture abandonment (year zero to seven after pasture abandonment). We evaluated the hydrological consequences of the detected changes by comparing the soil hydraulic properties with site-specific rainfall intensities and hydrometric observations. Within one year after grazing started, infiltrability and K-s at 12.5 and 20 cm depth decreased by up to one order of magnitude to levels which are typical for 20-year-old pasture. In the three subsequent monitoring years, infiltrability and K-s remained stable. Land use did not impact on subsoil permeability. Whereas infiltrability values are large enough to allow all rainwater to infiltrate even after the conversion, the sudden decline of near-surface K-s is of hydrological relevance as perched water tables and overland flow occur more often on pastures than in forests at our study site. After pasture abandonment and during secondary succession, seven years of recovery did not suffice to significantly increase infiltrability and K-s at 12.5 depth although a slight recovery is obvious. At 20 cm soil depth, we detected a positive linear increase within the seven-year time frame but annual means did not differ significantly. Although more than a doubling of infiltrability and K-s is still required to achieve pre-disturbance levels, which will presumably take more than a decade, the observed slight increases of K-s might already decrease the probability of perched water table generation and overland flow development well before complete recovery.
Changes in rainfall interception along a secondary forest succession gradient in lowland Panama
(2013)
Secondary forests are rapidly expanding in tropical regions. Yet, despite the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of land-cover dynamics, the relationship between forest succession and canopy interception is poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is unfortunate because rainfall interception plays an important role in regional water cycles and needs to be quantified for many modeling purposes. To help close this knowledge gap, we designed a throughfall monitoring study along a secondary succession gradient in a tropical forest region of Panama. The investigated gradient comprised 20 forest patches 3 to 130 yr old. We sampled each patch with a minimum of 20 funnel-type throughfall collectors over a continuous 2month period that had nearly 900 mm of rain. During the same period, we acquired forest inventory data and derived several forest structural attributes. We then applied simple and multiple regression models (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) and identified those vegetation parameters that had the strongest influence on the variation of canopy interception. Our analyses yielded three main findings. First, canopy interception changed rapidly during forest succession. After only a decade, throughfall volumes approached levels that are typical for mature forests. Second, a parsimonious (simple linear regression) model based on the ratio of the basal area of small stems to the total basal area outperformed more complex multivariate models (BMA approach). Third, based on complementary forest inventory data, we show that the influence of young secondary forests on interception in realworld fragmented landscapes might be detectable only in regions with a substantial fraction of young forests. Our re-sults suggest that where entire catchments undergo forest regrowth, initial stages of succession may be associated with a substantial decrease of streamflow generation. Our results further highlight the need to study hydrological processes in all forest succession stages, including early ones.
A wide range of basic and applied problems in water resources research requires high-quality estimates of the spatial mean of throughfall. Many throughfall sampling schemes, however, are not optimally adapted to the system under study. The application of inappropriate sampling schemes may partly reflect the lack of generally applicable guidelines on throughfall sampling strategies. In this study we conducted virtual sampling experiments using simulated fields which are based on empirical throughfall data from three structurally distinct forests (a 12-year old teak plantation, a 5-year old young secondary forest, and a 130-year old secondary forest). In the virtual sampling experiments we assessed the relative error of mean throughfall estimates for 38 different throughfall sampling schemes comprising a variety of funnel- and trough-type collectors and a large range of sample sizes. Moreover, we tested the performance of each scheme for both event-based and accumulated throughfall data. The key findings of our study are threefold. First, as errors of mean throughfall estimates vary as a function of throughfall depth, the decision on which temporal scale (i.e. event-based versus accumulated data) to sample strongly influences the required sampling effort. Second, given a chosen temporal scale throughfall estimates can vary considerably as a function of canopy complexity. Accordingly, throughfall sampling in simply structured forests requires a comparatively modest effort, whereas heterogeneous forests can be extreme in terms of sampling requirements, particularly if the focus is on reliable data of small events. Third, the efficiency of trough-type collectors depends on the spatial structure of throughfall. Strong, long-ranging throughfall patterns decrease the efficiency of troughs substantially. Based on the results of our virtual sampling experiments, which we evaluated by applying two contrasting sampling approaches simultaneously, we derive readily applicable guidelines for throughfall monitoring. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
estimating mean throughfall
(2016)
The selection of an appropriate spatial extent of a sampling plot is one among several important decisions involved in planning a throughfall sampling scheme. In fact, the choice of the extent may determine whether or not a study can adequately characterize the hydrological fluxes of the studied ecosystem. Previous attempts to optimize throughfall sampling schemes focused on the selection of an appropriate sample size, support, and sampling design, while comparatively little attention has been given to the role of the extent. In this contribution, we investigated the influence of the extent on the representativeness of mean throughfall estimates for three forest ecosystems of varying stand structure. Our study is based on virtual sampling of simulated throughfall fields. We derived these fields from throughfall data sampled in a simply structured forest (young tropical forest) and two heterogeneous forests (old tropical forest, unmanaged mixed European beech forest). We then sampled the simulated throughfall fields with three common extents and various sample sizes for a range of events and for accumulated data. Our findings suggest that the size of the study area should be carefully adapted to the complexity of the system under study and to the required temporal resolution of the throughfall data (i.e. event-based versus accumulated). Generally, event-based sampling in complex structured forests (conditions that favor comparatively long autocorrelations in throughfall) requires the largest extents. For event-based sampling, the choice of an appropriate extent can be as important as using an adequate sample size. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Numerous studies investigated the influence of abiotic (meteorological conditions) and biotic factors (tree characteristics) on stemflow generation. Although these studies identified the variables that influence stemflow volumes in simply structured forests, the combination of tree characteristics that allows a robust prediction of stemflow volumes in species-rich forests is not well known. Many hydrological applications, however, require at least a rough estimate of stemflow volumes based on the characteristics of a forest stand. The need for robust predictions of stemflow motivated us to investigate the relationships between tree characteristics and stemflow volumes in a species-rich tropical forest located in central Panama. Based on a sampling setup consisting of ten rainfall collectors, 300 throughfall samplers and 60 stemflow collectors and cumulated data comprising 26 rain events, we derive three main findings. Firstly, stemflow represents a minor hydrological component in the studied 1-ha forest patch (1.0% of cumulated rainfall). Secondly, in the studied species-rich forest, single tree characteristics are only weakly related to stemflow volumes. The influence of multiple tree parameters (e.g. crown diameter, presence of large epiphytes and inclination of branches) and the dependencies among these parameters require a multivariate approach to understand the generation of stemflow. Thirdly, predicting stemflow in species-rich forests based on tree parameters is a difficult task. Although our best model can capture the variation in stemflow to some degree, a critical validation reveals that the model cannot provide robust predictions of stemflow. A reanalysis of data from previous studies in species-rich forests corroborates this finding. Based on these results and considering that for most hydrological applications, stemflow is only one parameter among others to estimate, we advocate using the base model, i.e. the mean of the stemflow data, to quantify stemflow volumes for a given study area. Studies in species-rich forests that wish to obtain predictions of stemflow based on tree parameters probably need to conduct a much more extensive sampling than currently implemented by most studies. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) is an important soil characteristic affecting soil water storage, runoff generation and erosion processes. In some areas where high-intensity rainfall coincides with low K-s values at shallow soil depths, frequent overland flow entails dense drainage networks. Consequently, linear structures such as flowlines alternate with inter-flowline areas. So far, investigations of the spatial variability of K-s mainly relied on isotropic covariance models which are unsuitable to reveal patterns resulting from linear structures. In the present study, we applied two sampling approaches so as to adequately characterize K-s spatial variability in a tropical forest catchment that features a high density of flowlines: A classical nested sampling survey and a purposive sampling strategy adapted to the presence of flowlines. The nested sampling approach revealed the dominance of small-scale variability, which is in line with previous findings. Our purposive sampling, however, detected a strong spatial gradient: surface K-s increased substantially as a function of distance to flowline; 10 m off flowlines, values were similar to the spatial mean of K-s. This deterministic trend can be included as a fixed effect in a linear mixed modeling framework to obtain realistic spatial fields of K-s. In a next step we used probability maps based on those fields and prevailing rainfall intensities to assess the hydrological relevance of the detected pattern. This approach suggests a particularly good agreement between the probability statements of K-s exceedance and observed overland flow occurrence during wet stages of the rainy season.
Forests seem to represent low-erosion systems, according to most, but not all, studies of suspended-sediment yield. We surmised that this impression reflects an accidental bias in the selection of monitoring sites towards those with prevailing vertical hydrological flowpaths, rather than a tight causal link between vegetation cover and erosion alone. To evaluate this conjecture, we monitored, over a 2-year period, a 3.3 ha old-growth rainforest catchment prone to frequent and widespread overland flow. We sampled stream flow at two and overland flow at three sites in a nested arrangement on a within-event basis, and monitored the spatial and temporal frequency of overland flow. Suspended-sediment concentrations were modeled with Random Forest and Quantile Regression Forest to be able to estimate the annual yields for the 2 years, which amounted to 1 t ha(-1) and 2 t ha(-1) in a year with below-average and with average precipitation, respectively. These estimates place our monitoring site near the high end of reported suspended-sediment yields and lend credence to the notion that low yields reflect primarily the dominance of vertical flowpaths and not necessarily and exclusively the kind of vegetative cover. Undisturbed forest and surface erosion are certainly no contradiction in terms even in the absence of mass movements.
The 10th edition of the International Congress on the Application of Raman Spectroscopy in Art and Archaeology (RAA2019) was held in Potsdam (Germany) from 3 to 7 September 2019, with eight keynote lectures, 35 oral presentations and 18 Poster Presentations. The number of active participants was 68 delegates from 20 countries among the 236 authors that presented at least one work.
Thermobarometrical and mineral-chemical investigations by electron microprobe and LA-ICP-MS on a sillimanite- bearing pegmatoid from the Reinbolt Hills provide important constraints on the P-T-X-age relations of part of East Antarctica during Pan-African tectonism. U-Th-total Pb ages of monazite imply that the pegmatoid of originally Grenvillan age (zircon U-Pb age of ca. 900 Ma) underwent a major, late Pan-African (Cambrian) regional, granulite-facies metamorphism between 500 and 550 Ma. Most of the monazite formed during this event, as result of apatite metasomatism owing to infiltration of high-grade metamorphic fluids. Apatite-biotite and other mineral thermobarometers define the peak metamorphic temperatures and pressures with 850-950 degrees C and 0.8-1.0 GPa. The F-Cl-OH relations in apatite, and biotite, the chemistry of fluid inclusions and the presence of K-feldspar microveins suggest that the metasomatising fluid was a CO2-bearing, diluted KCl brine. The pegmatoid is the first record of monazite-(Ce) formed from fluorapatite that is rich in U (up to 2.6 Wt% UO2) and possesses Th/U ratios <1 (0.09 on average). These chemical signatures are direct reflection of the U and Th concentration patterns in the parental fluorapatite
Questions of identity and provenance of minerals that are parts of masterpieces in museums have become increasingly important in mineralogical and historical studies. Detailed investigations of valuable and unique objects require on-site, nondestructive and noninvasive methods because touching or removing them may cause irreparable damage. A mobile Raman-microprobe has been used to meet these demands for truly in situ mineralogical studies of the large collection of minerals and rocks of the Prussian kings in the Grotto Hall (Grottensaal) of the New Palace (Neues Palais), Park Sanssouci in Potsdam. Minerals on the walls of the Grotto Hall were analyzed to identify them and thereby to complete the data bank of the collection. Fluid and solid inclusions in the interior of a large quartz crystal have been studied to provide evidence of the provenance of the crystal. The fluid inclusions contain aqueous saline solutions, whereas the solid inclusions are needles of anhydrite with a length of about 1.5 mm. The quartz probably originated from an area in the eastern Alps, from the surroundings of Bad Gastein, Austria. This is the first on-site and in situ study of inclusions below the surface of a mineral with a mobile Raman-microprobe outside a laboratory.
The seismicity of the Kenya rift is characterized by high-frequency low-magnitude events concentrated along the rift axis. Its seismic character is typical for magmatically active continental rifts, where igneous material at a shallow depth causes extensive grid faulting and geothermal activity. Thermal overprinting and dike intrusion prohibit the buildup of large elastic strains, therefore prohibiting the generation of large-magnitude earthquakes. On 6 January 1928, the M-S 6.9 Subukia earthquake occurred on the Laikipia-Marmanet fault, the eastern rift-bounding structure of the central Kenya rift. It is the largest instrumentally recorded seismic event in the Kenya rift, standing in contrast to the current model of the rift's seismic character in which large earthquakes are not anticipated. Furthermore, the proximity of the ruptured fault and the rift axis is intriguing: The rift-bounding structure that ruptured in 1928 remains seismically active, capable of generating large-magnitude earthquakes, even though thermally weakened crust and better oriented structures are present along the rift axis nearby, prohibiting any significant buildup of elastic strain. We excavated the surface rupture of the 1928 Subukia earthquake to find evidence for preceding ground-rupturing earthquakes. We also made a total station survey of the site topography and mapped the site geology. We show that the Laikipia-Marmanet fault was repeatedly activated during the late Quaternary. We found evidence for six ground-rupturing earthquakes, including the 1928 earthquake. The topographic survey around the trench site revealed a degraded fault scarp of approximate to 7.5 m in height, offsetting a small debris slide. Using scarp-diffusion modeling, we estimated an uplift rate of U = 0.09-0.15 mm/yr, constraining the scarp age to 50-85 ka. Assuming an average fault dip of 55 degrees-75 degrees, the preferred uplift rate (0.15 mm/yr) accommodates approximately 10%-20% of the recent rate of extension (0.5 mm/yr) across the Kenya rift.
On 27 December 2007, a 1.9 seismic event occurred within a dyke in the deep-level Mponeng Gold Mine, South Africa. From the seismological network of the mine and the one from the Japanese-German Underground Acoustic Emission Research in South Africa (JAGUARS) group, the hypocentral depth (3,509 m), focal mechanism and aftershock location were estimated. Since no mining activity took place in the days before the event, dynamic triggering due to blasting can be ruled out as the cause. To investigate the hypothesis that stress transfer, due to excavation of the gold reef, induced the event, we set up a small-scale high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) geomechanical numerical model. The model consisted of the four different rock units present in the mine: quartzite (footwall), hard lava (hanging wall), conglomerate (gold reef) and diorite (dykes). The numerical solution was computed using a finite-element method with a discretised mesh of approximately elements. The initial stress state of the model is in agreement with in situ data from a neighbouring mine, and the step-wise excavation was simulated by mass removal from the gold reef. The resulting 3D stress tensor and its changes due to mining were analysed based on the Coulomb failure stress changes on the fault plane of the event. The results show that the seismic event was induced regardless of how the Coulomb failure stress changes were calculated and of the uncertainties in the fault plane solution. We also used the model to assess the seismic hazard due to the excavation towards the dyke. The resulting curve of stress changes shows a significant increase in the last in front of the dyke, indicating that small changes in the mining progress towards the dyke have a substantial impact on the stress transfer.
Iceland is located on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge which is the plate boundary between the Eurasian and the North American plates. It is one of the few places on earth where an active spreading centre is located onshore but the stress pattern has not been extensively investigated so far. In this paper we present a comprehensive compilation of the orientation of maximum horizontal stress (S-Hmax). In particular we interpret borehole breakouts and drilling induced fractures from borehole image logs in 57 geothermal wells onshore Iceland. The borehole results are combined with other stress indicators including earthquake focal mechanism solutions, geological information and overcoring measurements resulting in a dataset with 495 data records for the S-Hmax orientation. The reliability of each indicator is assessed according to the quality criteria of the World Stress Map project The majority of S-Hmax orientation data records in Iceland is derived from earthquake focal mechanism solutions (35%) and geological fault slip inversions (26%). 20% of the data are borehole related stress indicators. In addition minor shares of S-Hmax orientations are compiled, amongst others, from focal mechanism inversions and the alignment of fissure eruptions. The results show that the S-Hmax orientations derived from different depths and stress indicators are consistent with each other.
The resulting pattern of the present-day stress in Iceland has four distinct subsets of S-Hmax orientations. The S-Hmax orientation is parallel to the rift axes in the vicinity of the active spreading regions. It changes from NE-SW in the South to approximately N-S in central Iceland and NNW-SSE in the North. In the Westfjords which is located far away from the ridge the regional S-Hmax rotates and is parallel to the plate motion. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Rotations of the principal stress axes are observed as a result of fluid injection into reservoirs. We use a generic, fully coupled 3-D thermo-hydro-mechanical model to investigate systematically the dependence of this stress rotation on different reservoir properties and injection scenarios. We find that permeability, injection rate, and initial differential stress are the key factors, while other reservoir properties only play a negligible role. In particular, we find that thermal effects do not significantly contribute to stress rotations. For reservoir types with usual differential stress and reservoir treatment the occurrence of significant stress rotations is limited to reservoirs with a permeability of less than approximately 10(-12)m(2). Higher permeability effectively prevents stress rotations to occur. Thus, according to these general findings, the observed principal stress axes rotation can be used as a proxy of the initial differential stress provided that rock permeability and fluid injection rate are known a priori.
Information on the contemporary in-situ stress state of the earth’s crust is essential for geotechnical applications and physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Yet, stress data records for a data point are incomplete and their availability is usually not dense enough to allow conclusive statements. This demands a thorough examination of the in-situ stress field which is achieved by 3D geomechanicalnumerical models. However, the models spatial resolution is limited and the resulting local stress state is subject to large uncertainties that confine the significance of the findings. In addition, temporal variations of the in-situ stress field are naturally or anthropogenically induced. In my thesis I address these challenges in three manuscripts that investigate (1) the current crustal stress field orientation, (2) the 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling of the in-situ stress state, and (3) the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotations. In the first manuscript I present the first comprehensive stress data compilation of Iceland with 495 data records. Therefore, I analysed image logs from 57 boreholes in Iceland for indicators of the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress component. The study is the first stress survey from different kinds of stress indicators in a geologically very young and tectonically active area of an onshore spreading ridge. It reveals a distinct stress field with a depth independent stress orientation even very close to the spreading centre. In the second manuscript I present a calibrated 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling approach of the in-situ stress state of the Bavarian Molasse Basin that investigates the regional (70x70x10km³) and local (10x10x10km³) stress state. To link these two models I develop a multi-stage modelling approach that provides a reliable and efficient method to derive from the larger scale model initial and boundary conditions for the smaller scale model. Furthermore, I quantify the uncertainties in the models results which are inherent to geomechanical-numerical modelling in general and the multi-stage approach in particular. I show that the significance of the models results is mainly reduced due to the uncertainties in the material properties and the low number of available stress magnitude data records for calibration. In the third manuscript I investigate the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotation and its controlling factors. I conduct a sensitivity study with a 3D generic thermo-hydro-mechanical model. I show that the key control factors for the stress tensor rotation are the permeability as the decisive factor, the injection rate, and the initial differential stress. In particular for enhanced geothermal systems with a low permeability large rotations of the stress tensor are indicated. According to these findings the estimation of the initial differential stress in a reservoir is possible provided the permeability is known and the angle of stress rotation is observed. I propose that the stress tensor rotations can be a key factor in terms of the potential for induced seismicity on pre-existing faults due to the reorientation of the stress field that changes the optimal orientation of faults.
Applying conservation of energy to estimate earthquake frequencies from strain rates and stresses
(2020)
Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault-agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy-Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long-term seismic energy release represented by the energy-frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy-frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3-2.0GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency.
The spatial and temporal variability of a low-centred polygon on the eastern floodplain area of the lower Anabar River (72.070 degrees N, 113.921 degrees E; northern Yakutia, Siberia) has been investigated using a multi-method approach. The present-day vegetation in each square metre was analysed, revealing a community of Larix, shrubby Betula, and Salix on the polygon rim, a dominance of Carex and Andromeda polifolia in the rim-to-pond transition zone, and a predominantly monospecific Scorpidium scorpioides coverage within the pond. The total organic carbon (TOC) content, TOC/TN (total nitrogen) ratio, grain size, vascular plant macrofossils, moss remains, diatoms, and pollen were analysed for two vertical sections and a sediment core from a transect across the polygon. Radiocarbon dating indicates that the formation of the polygon started at least 1500 yr ago; the general positions of the pond and rim have not changed since that time. Two types of pond vegetation were identified, indicating two contrasting development stages of the polygon. The first was a well-established moss association, dominated by submerged or floating Scorpidium scorpioides and/or Drepanocladus spp. and overgrown by epiphytic diatoms such as Tabellaria flocculosa and Eunotia taxa. This stage coincides temporally with a period in which the polygon was only drained by lateral subsurface water flow, as indicated by mixed grain sizes. A different moss association occurred during times of repeated river flooding (indicated by homogeneous medium-grained sand that probably accumulated during the annual spring snowmelt), characterized by an abundance of Meesia triquetra and a dominance of benthic diatoms (e. g. Navicula vulpina), indicative of a relatively high pH and a high tolerance of disturbance. A comparison of the local polygon vegetation (inferred from moss and macrofossil spectra) with the regional vegetation (inferred from pollen spectra) indicated that the moss association with Scorpidium scorpioides became established during relatively favourable climatic conditions, while the association dominated by Meesia triquetra occurred during periods of harsh climatic conditions. Our study revealed a strong riverine influence (in addition to climatic influences) on polygon development and the type of peat accumulated.
QuestionHow important is the effect of micro-relief and vegetation type on the characteristics of vascular plants and bryophytes in low-centred polygons? LocationSiberian Arctic, Russia. MethodsEight low-centred polygons in northern Siberia were surveyed for vegetation along transects running from the rim to the pond via the rim-pond transition of each polygon and across a vegetation type gradient from open forest to tundra. ResultsThe cover of vascular plants and bryophytes displays no significant differences between the rim and rim-pond transition but is significantly lower in the pond section of the polygons. Alpha-diversity of vascular plants decreases strongly from rim to pond, whereas bryophyte diversity in pond plots is significantly distinct from the rim and the rim-pond transition. There is no clear trend in cover for either plant group along the vegetation type transect and only a weak trend in -diversity. However, both gradients are reflected in the compositional turnover. The applied indicator species analysis identified taxa characteristic of certain environmental conditions. Among others, we found vascular plants primarily characteristic of the rim and bryophyte taxa characteristic of each micro-relief level and vegetation type. ConclusionsThe observed gradual pattern in -diversity and composition of polygonal vegetation suggests that micro-relief is the main driver of changes in the vegetation composition, while vegetation type and the related forest cover change are of subordinate importance for polygonal vegetation patterns along the Siberian tree line.
Understanding the geologic evolution of Northern Tibetan Plateau with multiple thermochronometers
(2018)
The early onset of deformation following the India-Asia collision, Neogene expanse of uplift, and complex systems that comprise strike-slip faults, thrust faults, and intermontane basins characterize the Cenozoic tectonism of Northern Tibetan Plateau and raise two prominent questions in orogenic geodynamics: 1) What mechanism(s) control(s) the transfer of stress related to the India-Asia collision across the distance of >2000 km; and 2) Why the development of high topography was delayed in the Northern Tibetan Plateau and what does it reveal about how the internal forces and external boundary conditions evolved. To address these two questions, we reconstruct a holistic spatial-temporal deformation history of the Northern Tibetan Plateau by using a range of thermochronometers, with closure temperature spanning from 350 degrees C to-60-70 degrees C. This multi-thermochronometer study reveals three stages of faulting related cooling, in the early Cretaceous, in Paleocene-Eocene and in middle-late Miocene. We observe that Paleocene-Eocene deformation was spatially restricted and mostly occurred on reactivated Cretaceous structures, indicating a control of pre-existing weakness on early Cenozoic deformation. Extensive Neogene deformation contrasts with restricted Paleocene-Eocene deformation and relatively quiescent shortening during the Oligocene-early Miocene, which implies a change in the regional tectonics regime. Global plate reconstructions show that this tectonic reorganization is coeval with an increase in Pacific-Asia plate convergence rates. We argue that this change in regional tectonics is a result of increasing constrictive environment of the eastern plate boundary, which changed the behavior of the Altyn Tagh fault the boundary fault of Northern Tibetan Plateau, causing it to change from feeding slip into structures out of the plateau to feeding slip into structures at plateau margins.
Mechanical behaviors of granite after thermal treatment under loading and unloading conditions
(2021)
Understanding the mechanical behaviors of granite after thermal treatment under loading and unloading conditions is of utmost relevance to deep geothermal energy recovery. In the present study, a series of loading and unloading triaxial compression tests (20, 40 and 60 MPa) on granite specimens after exposure to different temperatures (20, 200, 300, 400, 500 and 600 degrees C) was carried out to quantify the combined effects of thermal treatment and loading/unloading stress conditions on granite strength and deformation. Changes in the microstructure of granite exposed to high temperatures were revealed by optical microscopy. The experimental results indicate that both, thermal treatment and loading/unloading stress conditions, degrade the mechanical behaviors and further decrease the carrying capacity of granite. The gradual degradation of the mechanical characteristics of granite after thermal treatment is mainly associated with the evolution of thermal micro-cracks based on optical microscopy observations. The unloading stress state induces the extension of tension cracks parallel to the axial direction, and thus, the mechanical properties are degraded. Temperatures above 400 degrees C have a more significant influence on the mechanical characteristics of granite than the unloading treatment, whereby 400 degrees C can be treated as a threshold temperature for the delineation of significant deterioration. This study is expected to support feasibility and risk assessments by means of providing data for analytical calculations and numerical simulations on granite exposed to high temperatures during geothermal energy extraction.
Whistler mode exohiss are the structureless hiss waves observed outside the plasma pause with featured equatorward Poynting flux. An event of the amplification of exohiss as well as chorus waves was recorded by Van Allen Probes during the recovery phase of a weak geomagnetic storm. Amplitudes of both types of the waves showed a significant increase at the regions of electron density enhancements. It is found that the electrons resonant with exohiss and chorus showed moderate pitch angle anisotropies. The ratio of the number of electrons resonating with exohiss to total electron number presented in-phase correlation with density variations, which suggests that exohiss can be amplified due to electron density enhancement in terms of cyclotron instability. The calculation of linear growth rates further supports above conclusion. We suggest that exohiss waves have potential to become more significant due to the background plasma fluctuation.
In this paper we report a rare and fortunate event of fast magnetosonic (MS, also called equatorial noise) waves modulated by compressional ultralow frequency (ULF) waves measured by Van Allen Probes. The characteristics of MS waves, ULF waves, proton distribution, and their potential correlations are analyzed. The results show that ULF waves can modulate the energetic ring proton distribution and in turn modulate the MS generation. Furthermore, the variation of MS intensities is attributed to not only ULF wave activities but also the variation of background parameters, for example, number density. The results confirm the opinion that MS waves are generated by proton ring distribution and propose a new modulation phenomenon.
This study aims to identify the best-performing site characterization proxy alternative and complementary to the conventional 30 m average shear-wave velocity V-S30, as well as the optimal combination of proxies in characterizing linear site response. Investigated proxies include T-0 (site fundamental period obtained from earthquake horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios), V-Sz (measured average shear-wave velocities to depth z, z = 5, 10, 20 and 30 m), Z(0.8) and Z(1.0) (measured site depths to layers having shear-wave velocity 0.8 and 1.0 km/s, respectively), as well as Z(x-infer) (inferred site depths from a regional velocity model, x = 0.8 and 1.0, 1.5 and 2.5 km/s). To evaluate the performance of a site proxy or a combination, a total of 1840 surface-borehole recordings is selected from KiK-net database. Site amplifications are derived using surface-to-borehole response-, Fourier- and cross-spectral ratio techniques and then are compared across approaches. Next, the efficacies of 7 single-proxies and 11 proxy-pairs are quantified based on the site-to-site standard deviation of amplification residuals of observation about prediction using the proxy or the pair. Our results show that T-0 is the best-performing single-proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and V-Sz. Meanwhile, T-0 is also the best-performing proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and Z(x-infer) complementary to V-S30 in accounting for the residual amplification after V-S30-correction. Besides, T-0 alone can capture most of the site effects and should be utilized as the primary site indicator. Though (T-0, V-S30) is the best-performing proxy pair among (V-S30, T-0), (V-S30, Z(0.8)), (V-S30, Z(1.0)), (V-S30, Z(x-infer)) and (T-0, V-Sz), it is only slightly better than (T-0, V-S20). Considering both efficacy and engineering utility, the combination of T-0 (primary) and V-S20 (secondary) is recommended. Further study is needed to test the performances of various proxies on sites in deep sedimentary basins.
Evaluation of a novel application of earthquake HVSR in site-specific amplification estimation
(2020)
Ground response analyses (GRA) model the vertical propagations of SH waves through flat-layered media (1DSH) and are widely carried out to evaluate local site effects in practice. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique is a cost-effective approach to extract certain site-specific information, e.g., site fundamental frequency (f(0)), but HVSR values cannot be directly used to approximate the levels of S-wave amplifications. Motivated by the work of Kawase et al. (2019), we propose a procedure to correct earthquake HVSR amplitudes for direct amplification estimations. The empirical correction compensates HVSR by generic vertical amplification spectra categorized by the vertical fundamental frequency (f(0v)) via kappa-means clustering. In this investigation, we evaluate the effectiveness of the corrected HVSR in approximating observed linear amplifications in comparison with 1DSH modellings. We select a total of 90 KiK-net (Kiban Kyoshin network) surface-downhole sites which are found to have no velocity contrasts below their boreholes and thus of which surface-to-borehole spectral ratios (SBSRs) can be taken as their empirical transfer functions (ETFs). 1DSH-based theoretical transfer functions (TTFs) are computed in the linear domain considering uncertainties in Vs profiles through randomizations. Five goodness-of-fit metrics are adopted to gauge the closeness between observed (ETF) and predicted (i.e., TTF and corrected HVSR) amplifications in both amplitude and spectral shape over frequencies from f(0) to 25 Hz. We find that the empirical correction to HVSR is highly effective and achieves a "good match" in both spectral shape and amplitude at the majority of the 90 KiK-net sites, as opposed to less than one-third for the 1DSH modelling. In addition, the empirical correction does not require a velocity model, which GRAs require, and thus has great potentials in seismic hazard assessments.