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The quantitative descriptions of the state of stress in the Earth’s crust, and spatial-temporal stress changes are of great importance in terms of scientific questions as well as applied geotechnical issues. Human activities in the underground (boreholes, tunnels, caverns, reservoir management, etc.) have a large impact on the stress state. It is important to assess, whether these activities may lead to (unpredictable) hazards, such as induced seismicity. Equally important is the understanding of the in situ stress state in the Earth’s crust, as it allows the determination of safe well paths, already during well planning. The same goes for the optimal configuration of the injection- and production wells, where stimulation for artificial fluid path ways is necessary.
The here presented cumulative dissertation consists of four separate manuscripts, which are already published, submitted or will be submitted for peer review within the next weeks. The main focus is on the investigation of the possible usage of geothermal energy in the province Alberta (Canada). A 3-D geomechanical–numerical model was designed to quantify the contemporary 3-D stress tensor in the upper crust. For the calibration of the regional model, 321 stress orientation data and 2714 stress magnitude data were collected, whereby the size and diversity of the database is unique. A calibration scheme was developed, where the model is calibrated versus the in situ stress data stepwise for each data type and gradually optimized using statistically test methods. The optimum displacement on the model boundaries can be determined by bivariate linear regression, based on only three model runs with varying deformation ratio. The best-fit model is able to predict most of the in situ stress data quite well. Thus, the model can provide the full stress tensor along any chosen virtual well paths. This can be used to optimize the orientation of horizontal wells, which e.g. can be used for reservoir stimulation. The model confirms regional deviations from the average stress orientation trend, such as in the region of the Peace River Arch and the Bow Island Arch.
In the context of data compilation for the Alberta stress model, the Canadian database of the World Stress Map (WSM) could be expanded by including 514 new data records. This publication of an update of the Canadian stress map after ~20 years with a specific focus on Alberta shows, that the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) is oriented southwest to northeast over large areas in Northern America. The SHmax orientation in Alberta is very homogeneous, with an average of about 47°. In order to calculate the average SHmax orientation on a regular grid as well as to estimate the wave-length of stress orientation, an existing algorithm has been improved and is applied to the Canadian data. The newly introduced quasi interquartile range on the circle (QIROC) improves the variance estimation of periodic data, as it is less susceptible to its outliers.
Another geomechanical–numerical model was built to estimate the 3D stress tensor in the target area ”Nördlich Lägern” in Northern Switzerland. This location, with Opalinus clay as a host rock, is a potential repository site for high-level radioactive waste. The performed modelling aims to investigate the sensitivity of the stress tensor on tectonic shortening, topography, faults and variable rock properties within the Mesozoic sedimentary stack, according to the required stability needed for a suitable radioactive waste disposal site. The majority of the tectonic stresses caused by the far-field shortening from the South are admitted by the competent rock units in the footwall and hanging wall of the argillaceous target horizon, the Upper Malm and Upper Muschelkalk. Thus, the differential stress within the host rock remains relatively low. East-west striking faults release stresses driven by tectonic shortening. The purely gravitational influence by the topography is low; higher SHmax magnitudes below topographical depression and lower values below hills are mainly observed near the surface. A complete calibration of the model is not possible, as no stress magnitude data are available for calibration, yet. The collection of this data will begin in 2015; subsequently they will be used to adjust the geomechanical–numerical model again.
The third geomechanical–numerical model investigates the stress variation in an ultra-deep gold mine in South Africa. This reservoir model is spatially one order of magnitude smaller than the previous local model from Northern Switzerland. Here, the primary focus is to investigate the hypothesis that the Mw 1.9 earthquake on 27 December 2007 was induced by stress changes due to the mining process. The Coulomb failure stress change (DeltaCFS) was used to analyse the stress change. It confirmed that the seismic event was induced by static stress transfer due to the mining progress. The rock was brought closer to failure on the derived rupture plane by stress changes of up to 1.5–15MPa, in dependence of the DeltaCFS analysis type. A forward modelling of a generic excavation scheme reveals that with decreasing distance to the dyke the DeltaCFS values increase significantly. Hence, even small changes in the mining progress can have a significant impact on the seismic hazard risk, i.e. the change of the occurrence probability to induce a seismic event of economic concern.
In the context of examining the potential usage of safe and sustainable geothermal energy in the Alberta Basin, whether in deep sediments or crystalline rock, the understanding of the in situ stress state is crucial. It is a key challenge to estimate the 3-D stress state at an arbitrarily chosen point in the crust, based on sparsely distributed in situ stress data.
To address this challenge, we present a large-scale 3-D geomechanical-numerical model (700 km x 1200 km x 80 km) from a large portion of the Alberta Basin, to provide a 3-D continuous quantification of the contemporary stress orientations and stress magnitudes. To calibrate the model, we use a large database of in situ stress orientation (321 S-Hmax) as well as stress magnitude data (981 S-V, 1720 S-hmin and 2 (+11) S-Hmax) from the Alberta Basin. To find the best-fit model, we vary the material properties and primarily the displacement boundary conditions of the model. This study focusses in detail on the statistical calibration procedure, because of the large amount of available data, the diversity of data types, and the importance of the order of data tests.
The best-fit model provides the total 3-D stress tensor for nearly the whole Alberta Basin, and allows estimation of stress orientation and stress magnitudes in advance of any well. First-order implications for the well design and configuration of enhanced geothermal systems are revealed. Systematic deviations of the modelled stress from the in situ data are found for stress orientations in the Peace River and the Bow Island Arch as well as for leak-off test magnitudes.
The Canadian database on contemporary crustal stress has not been revised systematically in the past two decades. Here we present the results of our new compilation that contains 514 new data records for the orientation data of maximum compressive horizontal stress and 188 data records that were re-assessed. In total the Canadian stress database has now 1667 data records, which is an increase of about 45%. From these data, a new Canadian Stress map as well as one for the Province of Alberta is presented.
To analyse the stress pattern, we use the quasi median on the circle as a smoothing algorithm that generates a smoothed stress map of the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientation on a regular grid. The newly introduced quasi interquartile range on the circle estimates the spreading of the data and is used as a measure for the wave-length of the stress pattern. The result of the hybrid wavelength analysis confirms that long spatial wavelength stress patterns (>= 1000 km) exist in large areas in Canada. The observed stress pattern is transmitted through the intra-plate regions.
The results reveal that shorter spatial wave length variation of the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientation of less than 200 km, prevails particularly in south-eastern and western Canada. Regional stress sources such as density contrasts, active fault systems, crustal structures, etc. might have a significant impact in these regions. In contrast to these variations, the observed stress pattern in the Alberta Basin is very homogeneous and mainly controlled by plate boundary forces and body forces. The influence of curvature of the Rocky Mountains salient in southern Alberta is minimal. The present-day horizontal stress orientations determined herein have important implications for the production of hydrocarbons and geothermal energy in the Alberta Basin. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Leaching of dissolved C in arable hummocky ground moraine soil landscapes is characterized by a spatial continuum of more or less erosion-affected Luvisols, Calcaric Regosols at exposed positions, and Colluvic Regosols in depressions. Our objective was to estimate the fluxes of dissolved C in four differently eroded soils as affected by erosion-induced pedological and soil structural alterations. In this model study, we considered landscape position effects by adapting the water table as the bottom boundary condition and erosion effects by using pedon-specific soil hydraulic properties. The one-dimensional vertical water movement was described with the Richards equation using HYDRUS-1D. Solute fluxes were obtained by combining calculated water fluxes with concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic C (DOC and DIC, respectively) measured from soil solution extracted by suction cups at biweekly intervals. In the 3-yr period (2010-2012), DOC fluxes in the 2-m soil depth were similar at the three non-colluvic locations with -0.8 +/- 0.1 g m(-2) yr(-1) (i.e., outflow) but were 0.4 g m(-2) yr(-1) (i.e., input) in the depression. The DIC fluxes ranged from -10.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the eroded Luvisol, -9.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the Luvisol, and -6.1 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the Calcaric Regosol to 3.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the Colluvic Regosol. The temporal variations in DOC and DIC fluxes were controlled by water fluxes. The spatially distributed leaching results corroborate the hypothesis that the effects of soil erosion influence fluxes through modified hydraulic and transport properties and terrain-dependent boundary conditions.
We apply and evaluate a recent machine learning method for the automatic classification of seismic waveforms. The method relies on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) and supervised learning to improve the detection capabilities at 3C seismic stations. A time-frequency decomposition provides the basis for the required signal characteristics we need in order to derive the features defining typical "signal" and "noise" patterns. Each pattern class is modeled by a DBN, specifying the interrelationships of the derived features in the time-frequency plane. Subsequently, the models are trained using previously labeled segments of seismic data. The DBN models can now be compared against in order to determine the likelihood of new incoming seismic waveform segments to be either signal or noise. As the noise characteristics of seismic stations varies smoothly in time (seasonal variation as well as anthropogenic influence), we accommodate in our approach for a continuous adaptation of the DBN model that is associated with the noise class. Given the difficulty for obtaining a golden standard for real data (ground truth) the proof of concept and evaluation is shown by conducting experiments based on 3C seismic data from the International Monitoring Stations, BOSA and LPAZ.
Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
Background and Aims Dynamic processes occurring at the soil-root interface crucially influence soil physical, chemical and biological properties at a local scale around the roots, and are technically challenging to capture in situ. This study presents a novel multi-imaging approach combining fluorescence and neutron radiography that is able to simultaneously monitor root growth, water content distribution, root respiration and root exudation.
Methods Germinated seeds of white lupins (Lupinus albus) were planted in boron-free glass rhizotrons. After 11 d, the rhizotrons were wetted from the bottom and time series of fluorescence and neutron images were taken during the subsequent day and night cycles for 13 d. The following day (i.e. 25 d after planting) the rhizotrons were again wetted from the bottom and the measurements were repeated. Fluorescence sensor foils were attached to the inner sides of the glass and measurements of oxygen and pH were made on the basis of fluorescence intensity. The experimental set-up allowed for simultaneous fluorescence imaging and neutron radiography.
Key Results The interrelated patterns of root growth and distribution in the soil, root respiration, exudation and water uptake could all be studied non-destructively and at high temporal and spatial resolution. The older parts of the root system with greater root-length density were associated with fast decreases of water content and rapid changes in oxygen concentration. pH values around the roots located in areas with low soil water content were significantly lower than the rest of the root system.
Conclusions The results suggest that the combined imaging set-up developed here, incorporating fluorescence intensity measurements, is able to map important biogeochemical parameters in the soil around living plants with a spatial resolution that is sufficiently high enough to relate the patterns observed to the root system.
For a detailed characterization of near-surface environments, geophysical techniques are increasingly used to support more conventional point-based techniques such as borehole and direct-push logging. Because the underlying parameter relations are often complex, site-specific, or even poorly understood, a remaining challenging task is to link the geophysical parameter models to the actual geotechnical target parameters measured only at selected points. We propose a workflow based on nonparametric regression to establish functional relationships between jointly inverted geophysical parameters and selected geotechnical parameters as measured, for example, by different borehole and direct-push tools. To illustrate our workflow, we present field data collected to characterize a near-surface sedimentary environment Our field data base includes crosshole ground penetrating radar (GPR), seismic P-, and S-wave data sets collected between 25 m deep boreholes penetrating sand- and gravel dominated sediments. Furthermore, different typical borehole and direct-push logs are available. We perform a global joint inversion of traveltimes extracted from the crosshole geophysical data using a recently proposed approach based on particle swarm optimization. Our inversion strategy allows for generating consistent models of GPR, P-wave, and S-wave velocities including an appraisal of uncertainties. We analyze the observed complex relationships between geophysical velocities and target parameter logs using the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) algorithm. This nonparametric statistical tool allows us to perform multivariate regression analysis without assuming a specific functional relation between the variables. We are able to explain selected target parameters such as characteristic grain size values or natural gamma activity by our inverted geophysical data and to extrapolate these parameters to the inter-borehole plane covered by our crosshole experiments. We conclude that the ACE algorithm is a powerful tool to analyze a multivariate petrophysical data base and to develop an understanding of how a multi-parameter geophysical model can be linked and translated to selected geotechnical parameters.
Submerged macrophytes can stabilise clear water conditions in shallow lakes. However, many existing models for deep lakes neglect their impact. Here, we tested the hypothesis that submerged macrophytes can affect the water clarity in deep lakes. A one-dimensional, vertically resolved macrophyte model was developed based on PCLake and coupled to SALMO-1D and GOTM hydrophysics and validated against field data. Validation showed good coherence in dynamic growth patterns and colonisation depths. In our simulations the presence of submerged macrophytes resulted in up to 50% less phytoplankton biomass in the shallowest simulated lake (11 m) and still 15% less phytoplankton was predicted in 100 m deep oligotrophic lakes. Nutrient loading, lake depth, and lake shape had a strong influence on macrophyte effects. Nutrient competition was found to be the strongest biological interaction. Despite a number of limitations, the derived dynamic lake model suggests significant effects of submerged macrophytes on deep lake water quality. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dealing with predicted increases in extreme weather conditions due to climate change requires robust knowledge about controls on rainfall-triggered landslides. We explore relationships between rainfall and landslide size throughout the Japanese archipelago. We test whether the total volume of landslides can be predicted directly from rainfall totals, intensity, and duration using a nationwide inventory of 4744 rainfall-triggered landslides recorded from A.D. 2001 to 2011. We find that larger landslides were more abundant at the expense of smaller ones when total, maximum, and mean rainfall intensity exceeded similar to 250 mm, similar to 35 mm/h, and similar to 4 mm/h, respectively. Frequency distributions of these rainfall parameters are peaked and heavily skewed. Yet neither the most frequent nor the most extreme values of these rainfall metrics coincide consistently with the maximum landslide volumes. A striking decrease of landslide volumes at both mean and maximum rainfall intensity, as well as duration, points to an exhaustion in hillslope geomorphic response regardless of sample size, landslide type, mobilized volume, dominant lithology, or reporting bias. Our results underscore substantial offsets between the peaks of rainfall metrics and maximum associated landslide volumes, thus complicating straightforward estimates of geomorphic work from metrics of rainstorm magnitude or frequency. Only the rainfall total appears to be a suitable monotonic predictor of landslide volumes mobilized during typhoons and frontal storms.
The monsoon is an important component of the Earth’s climate system. It played a vital role in the development and sustenance of the largely agro-based economy in India. A better understanding of past variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is necessary to assess its nature under global warming scenarios. Instead, our knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns of past ISM strength, as inferred from proxy records, is limited due to the lack of high-resolution paleo-hydrological records from the core monsoon domain.
In this thesis I aim to improve our understanding of Holocene ISM variability from the core ‘monsoon zone’ (CMZ) in India. To achieve this goal, I tried to understand modern and thereafter reconstruct Holocene monsoonal hydrology, by studying surface sediments and a high-resolution sedimentary record from the saline-alkaline Lonar crater lake, central India. My approach relies on analyzing stable carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios from sedimentary lipid biomarkers to track past hydrological changes.
In order to evaluate the relationship of the modern ecosystem and hydrology of the lake I studied the distribution of lipid biomarkers in the modern ecosystem and compared it to lake surface sediments. The major plants from dry deciduous mixed forest type produced a greater amount of leaf wax n-alkanes and a greater fraction of n-C31 and n-C33 alkanes relative to n-C27 and n-C29. Relatively high average chain length (ACL) values (29.6–32.8) for these plants seem common for vegetation from an arid and warm climate. Additionally I found that human influence and subsequent nutrient supply result in increased lake primary productivity, leading to an unusually high concentration of tetrahymanol, a biomarker for salinity and water column stratification, in the nearshore sediments. Due to this inhomogeneous deposition of tetrahymanol in modern sediments, I hypothesize that lake level fluctuation may potentially affect aquatic lipid biomarker distributions in lacustrine sediments, in addition to source changes.
I reconstructed centennial-scale hydrological variability associated with changes in the intensity of the ISM based on a record of leaf wax and aquatic biomarkers and their stable carbon (δ13C) and hydrogen (δD) isotopic composition from a 10 m long sediment core from the lake. I identified three main periods of distinct hydrology over the Holocene in central India. The period between 10.1 and 6 cal. ka BP was likely the wettest during the Holocene. Lower ACL index values (29.4 to 28.6) of leaf wax n-alkanes and their negative δ13C values (–34.8‰ to –27.8‰) indicated the dominance of woody C3 vegetation in the catchment, and negative δDwax (average for leaf wax n-alkanes) values (–171‰ to –147‰) argue for a wet period due to an intensified monsoon. After 6 cal. ka BP, a gradual shift to less negative δ13C values (particularly for the grass derived n-C31) and appearance of the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol, generally considered as a marker for salinity and water column stratification, marked the onset of drier conditions. At 5.1 cal. ka BP increasing flux of leaf wax n-alkanes along with the highest flux of tetrahymanol indicated proximity of the lakeshore to the center due to a major lake level decrease. Rapid fluctuations in abundance of both terrestrial and aquatic biomarkers between 4.8 and 4 cal. ka BP indicated an unstable lake ecosystem, culminating in a transition to arid conditions. A pronounced shift to less negative δ13C values, in particular for n-C31 (–25.2‰ to –22.8‰), over this period indicated a change of dominant vegetation to C4 grasses. Along with a 40‰ increase in leaf wax n-alkane δD values, which likely resulted from less rainfall and/or higher plant evapotranspiration, I interpret this period to reflect the driest conditions in the region during the last 10.1 ka. This transition led to protracted late Holocene arid conditions and the establishment of a permanently saline lake. This is supported by the high abundance of tetrahymanol. A late Holocene peak of cyanobacterial biomarker input at 1.3 cal. ka BP might represent an event of lake eutrophication, possibly due to human impact and the onset of cattle/livestock farming in the catchment.
The most intriguing feature of the mid-Holocene driest period was the high amplitude and rapid fluctuations in δDwax values, probably due to a change in the moisture source and/or precipitation seasonality. I hypothesize that orbital induced weakening of the summer solar insolation and associated reorganization of the general atmospheric circulation were responsible for an unstable hydroclimate in the mid-Holocene in the CMZ.
My findings shed light onto the sequence of changes during mean state changes of the monsoonal system, once an insolation driven threshold has been passed, and show that small changes in solar insolation can be associated to major environmental changes and large fluctuations in moisture source, a scenario that may be relevant with respect to future changes in the ISM system.
The basin-scale spatial variability in lipid biomarker proxies in lacustrine sediments, which are established tools for studying continental environmental change, has rarely been examined. It is often implicitly assumed that a lake sediment core provides an average integral of catchment sources. Here we evaluated the distribution of lipid biomarkers in a modern ecosystem and compared it with the sedimentary record. We analyzed lipid biomarkers in terrestrial and aquatic organisms and in lake surface sediments from 17 locations within the saline-alkaline Lonar crater lake in central India. Terrestrial vegetation and lake surface sediments were characterized by relatively high average chain length (ACL) index values (29.6-32.8) of leaf wax n-alkanes, consistent with suggestions that plants in drier and warmer climates produce longer chain alkyl lipids than plants in cooler and humid areas. A heterogeneous spatial distribution of ACL values in lake surface sediments was found: at locations away from the shore, the values were highest (31 or more), possibly indicating different sources and/or transport of terrestrial biomarkers. In floating, benthic microbial mats and surface sediment, n-heptadecane, carotenoids, diploptene, phytol and tetrahymanol occurred in large amounts. Interestingly, these biomarkers of a unique bacterial community were found in substantially higher concentrations in nearshore sediment samples. We suggest that human influence and subsequent nutrient supply resulted in increased primary productivity, leading to an unusually high concentration of tetrahymanol in the nearshore sediments. In summary, the data showed that substantial heterogeneity existed within the lake, but leaf wax n-alkanes in a core from the center of the lake represented an integral of catchment conditions. However, lake level fluctuation may potentially affect aquatic lipid biomarker distributions in lacustrine sediments, in addition to source changes.
In this paper we quantify the sediment dynamics in the formerly glaciated Zielbach catchment in the Italian Alps from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) until today. As a basis for our quantification, we use the stratigraphic record offered by a 3.5 km(2) large fan that we explore with a seismic survey, stratigraphic analyses of drillhole material, and C-14 ages measured on organic matter encountered in these drillings. In addition, we calculate past denudation rate variability in the fan deposits using concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10. We merge this information into a scenario of how the sediment flux has changed through time and how this variability can be related to climatic variations, framed within well-known paraglacial models. The results document a highly complex natural system. From the LGM to the very early Holocene, ice-melted discharge and climate variability promoted a high sediment flux (sedimentation rate up to 40 mm/yr). This flux then dramatically decreased toward interglacial values (0.8 mm/yr at 5-4 calibrated kyr B.P.). However, in contrast to the trend of classic paraglacial models, the flux recorded at Zielbach shows secondary peaks at 6.5 ka and 2.5 ka, with values of 13 mm/yr and 1.5 mm/yr, respectively. Paleo-denudation rates also decrease from similar to 33 mm/yr at the beginning of the Holocene to 0.42 mm/yr at 5 ka, with peaks of similar to 6 mm/yr and 1.1 mm/yr at 6.5 ka and 2.5 ka. High-amplitude climate change is the most likely cause of the secondary peaks, but anthropogenic activities may have contributed as well. The good correlation between paleo-sedimentation and paleo-denudation rates suggests that the majority of the deglaciated material destocked from the Zielbach catchment is stored in the alluvial fan.
The subsurface upper Palaeozoic sedimentary successions of the Loppa High half-graben and the Finnmark platform in the Norwegian Barents Sea (southwest Barents Sea) were investigated using 2D/3D seismic datasets combined with well and core data. These sedimentary successions represent a case of mixed siliciclastic-carbonates depositional systems, which formed during the earliest phase of the Atlantic rifting between Greenland and Norway. During the Carboniferous and Permian the southwest part of the Barents Sea was located along the northern margin of Pangaea, which experienced a northward drift at a speed of ~2–3 mm per year. This gradual shift in the paleolatitudinal position is reflected by changes in regional climatic conditions: from warm-humid in the early Carboniferous, changing to warm-arid in the middle to late Carboniferous and finally to colder conditions in the late Permian. Such changes in paleolatitude and climate have resulted in major changes in the style of sedimentation including variations in the type of carbonate factories. The upper Palaeozoic sedimentary succession is composed of four major depositional units comprising chronologically the Billefjorden Group dominated by siliciclastic deposition in extensional tectonic-controlled wedges, the Gipsdalen Group dominated by warm-water carbonates, stacked buildups and evaporites, the Bjarmeland Group characterized by cool-water carbonates as well as by the presence of buildup networks, and the Tempelfjorden Group characterized by fine-grained sedimentation dominated by biological silica production. In the Loppa High, the integration of a core study with multi-attribute seismic facies classification allowed highlighting the main sedimentary unconformities and mapping the spatial extent of a buried paleokarst terrain. This geological feature is interpreted to have formed during a protracted episode of subaerial exposure occurring between the late Palaeozoic and middle Triassic. Based on seismic sequence stratigraphy analysis the palaeogeography in time and space of the Loppa High basin was furthermore reconstructed and a new and more detailed tectono-sedimentary model for this area was proposed. In the Finnmark platform area, a detailed core analysis of two main exploration wells combined with key 2D seismic sections located along the main depositional profile, allowed the evaluation of depositional scenarios for the two main lithostratigraphic units: the Ørn Formation (Gipsdalen Group) and the Isbjørn Formation (Bjarmeland Group). During the mid-Sakmarian, two major changes were observed between the two formations including (1) the variation in the type of the carbonate factories, which is interpreted to be depth-controlled and (2) the change in platform morphology, which evolved from a distally steepened ramp to a homoclinal ramp. The results of this study may help supporting future reservoirs characterization of the upper Palaeozoic units in the Barents Sea, particularly in the Loppa High half-graben and the Finmmark platform area.
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 +/- 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 +/- 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 +/- 0.21 degrees C or 7.8 +/- 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 degrees C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 degrees C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 degrees C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
Erosion in the Himalaya is responsible for one of the greatest mass redistributions on Earth and has fueled models of feedback loops between climate and tectonics. Although the general trends of erosion across the Himalaya are reasonably well known, the relative importance of factors controlling erosion is less well constrained. Here we present 25 Be-10-derived catchment-averaged erosion rates from the Yamuna catchment in the Garhwal Himalaya, northern India. Tributary erosion rates range between similar to 0.1 and 0.5mmyr(-1) in the Lesser Himalaya and similar to 1 and 2mmyr(-1) in the High Himalaya, despite uniform hillslope angles. The erosion-rate data correlate with catchment-averaged values of 5 km radius relief, channel steepness indices, and specific stream power but to varying degrees of nonlinearity. Similar nonlinear relationships and coefficients of determination suggest that topographic steepness is the major control on the spatial variability of erosion and that twofold to threefold differences in annual runoff are of minor importance in this area. Instead, the spatial distribution of erosion in the study area is consistent with a tectonic model in which the rock uplift pattern is largely controlled by the shortening rate and the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). Our data support a shallow dip of the MHT underneath the Lesser Himalaya, followed by a midcrustal ramp underneath the High Himalaya, as indicated by geophysical data. Finally, analysis of sample results from larger main stem rivers indicates significant variability of Be-10-derived erosion rates, possibly related to nonproportional sediment supply from different tributaries and incomplete mixing in main stem channels.
Some of the largest and most erosive floods on Earth result from the failure of glacial dams. While potentially cataclysmic ice dams are recognized to have repeatedly formed along ice-sheet margins, much less is known about the frequency and longevity of ice dams caused by mountain glaciers, and their impact on landscape evolution. Here we present field observations and results from cosmogenic nuclide dating that allow reconstructing a > 100-k.y.-long history of glacial damming in the Shyok Valley, eastern Karakoram (South Asia). Our field observations provide evidence that Asia's second-longest glacier, the Siachen, once extended for over 180 km and blocked the Shyok River during the penultimate glacial period, leading to upstream deposition of a more than 400-m-thick fluvio-lacustrine valley fill. Be-10-depth profile modeling indicates that glacial damming ended with the onset of the Eemian interglacial and that the Shyok River subsequently incised the valley fill at an average rate of similar to 4-7 m k.y.(-1). Comparison with contemporary ice-dammed lakes in the Karakoram and elsewhere suggests recurring outburst floods during the aggradation period, while over 25 cycles of fining-upward lake deposits within the valley fill indicate impounding of floods from farther upstream. Despite prolonged damming, the net effect of this and probably earlier damming episodes by the Siachen Glacier is dominated by glacial erosion in excess of fluvial incision, as evidenced by a pronounced overdeepening that follows the glaciated valley reach. Strikingly similar overdeepened valleys at all major confluences of the Shyok and Indus Rivers with Karakoram tributaries indicate that glacial dams and subsequent outburst floods have been widespread and frequent in this region during the Quaternary. Our study suggests that the interaction of Karakoram glaciers with the Shyok and Indus Rivers promoted valley incision and headward erosion into the western margin of the Tibetan Plateau.
Our study aims at gaining insights into the processes determining the current treeline dynamics in Finnish Lapland. Using forest surveys conducted in 1978 and 2003 we modelled the occurrence and abundance of three dominant tree species in Finnish Lapland, i.e. Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Betula pubescens, with boosted regression trees. We assessed the importance of climatic, biotic and topographic variables in predicting tree occurrence and abundance based on their relative importance and response curves. We compared temporal and spatial transferability by using an extended transferability index.
Site fertility, the abundance of co-occurring species and growing degree days were generally the most important predictors for both occurrence and abundance across all species and datasets. Climatic predictors were more important for modelling occurrences than for modelling abundances. Occurrence models were able to reproduce the observed treeline pattern within one time period or region. Abundance models underestimated basal area but captured the general pattern of low and high values. Model performance as well as transferability differed considerably between species and datasets. Pinus sylvestris was modelled more successfully than P. abies and B. pubescens. Generally, spatial transferability was greater than temporal transferability. Comparing the environmental space between datasets revealed that transferring models means extrapolating to novel environments, providing a plausible explanation for limited transferability.
Our study illustrates how climate change can shift the environmental space and lead to limited model transferability. We identified non-climatic factors to be important in predicting the distribution of dominant tree species, contesting the widespread assumption of climatically induced range expansion.
Sr isotope records from marginal marine basins track the mixing between seawater and local continental runoff, potentially recording the effects of sea level, tectonic, and climate forcing in marine fossils and sediments. Our 110 new Sr-87/Sr-86 analyses on oyster and foraminifera samples from six late Miocene stratigraphic sections in southern Turkey, Crete, and Sicily show that Sr-87/Sr-86 fell below global seawater values in the basins several million years before the Messinian Salinity Crisis, coinciding with tectonic uplift and basin shallowing. 87Sr/86Sr from more centrally located basins (away from the Mediterranean coast) drop below global seawater values only during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. In addition to this general trend, 55 new Sr-87/Sr-86 analyses from the astronomically tuned Lower Evaporites in the central Apennines (Italy) allow us to explore the effect of glacio-eustatic sea level and precipitation changes on Sr-87/Sr-86. Most variation in our data can be explained by changes in sea level, with greatest negative excursions from global seawater values occurring during relative sea level lowstands, which generally coincided with arid conditions in the Mediterranean realm. We suggest that this greater sensitivity to lowered sea level compared with higher runoff could relate to the inverse relationship between Sr concentration and river discharge. Variations in the residence time of groundwater within the karst terrain of the circum-Mediterranean region during arid and wet phases may help to explain the single (robust) occurrence of a negative excursion during a sea level highstand, but this explanation remains speculative without more detailed paleoclimatic data for the region.
Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 (s t) century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies.
In Lutzito catchment on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, extraordinarily high suspended-sediment yields of 1-2Mgha-1year-1 were generated despite the dense forest cover coinciding with erosion-resistant soils. We hypothesized that ant mounding activity is an important zoogeomorphological mechanism in this area, providing relevant quantities of easily transportable material at the soil surface. To test this hypothesis, all ant mound material was collected collected for dry mass determination from thirty 4m2 plots installed in the study area every 1-3days during the 39-day sampling period. Additionally, three ground-nesting ant species responsible for mounds in the study area, Ectatomma ruidum, Trachymyrmex cornetzi and Strumigenys marginiventris, were identified. On the basis of the total of 1.38kg of material collected in the wet season of 2011, the estimate for the whole 8months wet season amounts to 725kgha-1. As this value is in the same order of magnitude as sediment output, it shows that ants may act as important ecosystem engineers and contribute to sediment production here by providing large quantities of fine-grained, readily erodible material at the soil surface for subsequent transport to the streambed. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Modification of the landscape by glacial erosion reflects the dynamic interplay of climate through temperature, precipitation, and prevailing wind direction, and tectonics through rock uplift and exhumation rate, lithology, and range and fault geometry. We investigate these relationships in the northeast Pamir Mountains using mapping and dating of moraines and terraces to determine the glacial history. We analyze modem glacial morphology to determine glacier area, spacing, headwall relief, debris cover, and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) using the area x altitude balance ratio (AABR), toe-to-headwall altitude ratio (THAR) and toe-to-summit altitude method (TSAM) for 156 glaciers and compare this to lithologic, tectonic, and climatic data We observe a pronounced asymmetry in glacial ELA, area, debris cover, and headwall relief that we interpret to reflect both structural and climatic control: glaciers on the downwind (eastern) side of the range are larger, more debris covered, have steeper headwalls, and tend to erode headward, truncating the smaller glaciers of the upwind, fault-controlled side of the range. We explain this by the transfer of moisture deep into the range as wind-blown or avalanched snow and by limitations imposed on glacial area on the upwind side of the range by the geometry of the Kongur extensional system (KES). The correspondence between rapid exhumation along the KES and maxima in glacier debris cover and headwall relief and minimums in all measures of ELA suggest that taller glacier headwalls develop in a response to more rapid exhumation rates. However, we find that glaciers in the Muji valley did not extend beyond the range front until at least 43 ka, in contrast to extensive glaciation since 300 ka in the south around the high peaks, a pattern which does not clearly reflect uplift rate. Instead, the difference in glacial history and the presence of large peaks (Muztagh Ata and Kongur Shan) with flanking glaciers likely reflects lithologic control (i.e., the location of crustal gneiss domes) and the formation of peaks that rise above the ELA and escape the glacial buzzsaw. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The tropical warm pool waters surrounding Indonesia are one of the equatorial heat and moisture sources that are considered as a driving force of the global climate system. The climate in Indonesia is dominated by the equatorial monsoon system, and has been linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which often result in severe droughts or floods over Indonesia with profound societal and economic impacts on the populations living in the world's fourth most populated country. The latest IPCC report states that ENSO will remain the dominant mode in the tropical Pacific with global effects in the 21st century and ENSO-related precipitation extremes will intensify. However, no common agreement exists among climate simulation models for projected change in ENSO and the Australian-Indonesian Monsoon. Exploring high-resolution palaeoclimate archives, like tree rings or varved lake sediments, provide insights into the natural climate variability of the past, and thus helps improving and validating simulations of future climate changes. Centennial tree-ring stable isotope records | Within this doctoral thesis the main goal was to explore the potential of tropical tree rings to record climate signals and to use them as palaeoclimate proxies. In detail, stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes were extracted from teak trees in order to establish the first well-replicated centennial (AD 1900-2007) stable isotope records for Java, Indonesia. Furthermore, different climatic variables were tested whether they show significant correlation with tree-ring proxies (ring-width, δ13C, δ18O). Moreover, highly resolved intra-annual oxygen isotope data were established to assess the transfer of the seasonal precipitation signal into the tree rings. Finally, the established oxygen isotope record was used to reveal possible correlations with ENSO events. Methodological achievements | A second goal of this thesis was to assess the applicability of novel techniques which facilitate and optimize high-resolution and high-throughput stable isotope analysis of tree rings. Two different UV-laser-based microscopic dissection systems were evaluated as a novel sampling tool for high-resolution stable isotope analysis. Furthermore, an improved procedure of tree-ring dissection from thin cellulose laths for stable isotope analysis was designed. The most important findings of this thesis are: I) The herein presented novel sampling techniques improve stable isotope analyses for tree-ring studies in terms of precision, efficiency and quality. The UV-laser-based microdissection serve as a valuable tool for sampling plant tissue at ultrahigh-resolution and for unprecedented precision. II) A guideline for a modified method of cellulose extraction from wholewood cross-sections and subsequent tree-ring dissection was established. The novel technique optimizes the stable isotope analysis process in two ways: faster and high-throughput cellulose extraction and precise tree-ring separation at annual to high-resolution scale. III) The centennial tree-ring stable isotope records reveal significant correlation with regional precipitation. High-resolution stable oxygen values, furthermore, allow distinguishing between dry and rainy season rainfall. IV) The δ18O record reveals significant correlation with different ENSO flavors and demonstrates the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting palaeoclimatic data in the tropics. The findings of my dissertation show that seasonally resolved δ18O records from Indonesian teak trees are a valuable proxy for multi-centennial reconstructions of regional precipitation variability (monsoon signals) and large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena (ENSO) for the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, the novel methodological achievements offer many unexplored avenues for multidisciplinary research in high-resolution palaeoclimatology.
We investigate the usefulness of complex flood damage models for predicting relative damage to residential buildings in a spatial and temporal transfer context. We apply eight different flood damage models to predict relative building damage for five historic flood events in two different regions of Germany. Model complexity is measured in terms of the number of explanatory variables which varies from 1 variable up to 10 variables which are singled out from 28 candidate variables. Model validation is based on empirical damage data, whereas observation uncertainty is taken into consideration. The comparison of model predictive performance shows that additional explanatory variables besides the water depth improve the predictive capability in a spatial and temporal transfer context, i.e., when the models are transferred to different regions and different flood events. Concerning the trade-off between predictive capability and reliability the model structure seem more important than the number of explanatory variables. Among the models considered, the reliability of Bayesian network-based predictions in space-time transfer is larger than for the remaining models, and the uncertainties associated with damage predictions are reflected more completely.
TopoToolbox is a MATLAB program for the analysis of digital elevation models (DEMs). With the release of version 2, the software adopts an object-oriented programming (OOP) approach to work with gridded DEMs and derived data such as flow directions and stream networks. The introduction of a novel technique to store flow directions as topologically ordered vectors of indices enables calculation of flow-related attributes such as flow accumulation similar to 20 times faster than conventional algorithms while at the same time reducing memory overhead to 33% of that required by the previous version. Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) enable visual exploration and interaction with DEMs and derivatives and provide access to tools targeted at fluvial and tectonic geomorphologists. With its new release, TopoToolbox has become a more memory-efficient and faster tool for basic and advanced digital terrain analysis that can be used as a framework for building hydrological and geomorphological models in MATLAB.
The purpose of this thesis is to develop an automated inversion scheme to derive point and finite source parameters for weak earthquakes, here intended with the unusual meaning of earthquakes with magnitudes at the limit or below the bottom magnitude threshold of standard source inversion routines. The adopted inversion approaches entirely rely on existing inversion software, the methodological work mostly targeting the development and tuning of optimized inversion flows. The resulting inversion scheme is tested for very different datasets, and thus allows the discussion on the source inversion problem at different scales. In the first application, dealing with mining induced seismicity, the source parameters determination is addressed at a local scale, with source-sensor distance of less than 3 km. In this context, weak seismicity corresponds to event below magnitude MW 2.0, which are rarely target of automated source inversion routines. The second application considers a regional dataset, namely the aftershock sequence of the 2010 Maule earthquake (Chile), using broadband stations at regional distances, below 300 km. In this case, the magnitude range of the target aftershocks range down to MW 4.0. This dataset is here considered as a weak seismicity case, since the analysis of such moderate seismicity is generally investigated only by moment tensor inversion routines, with no attempt to resolve source duration or finite source parameters. In this work, automated multi-step inversion schemes are applied to both datasets with the aim of resolving point source parameters, both using double couple (DC) and full moment tensor (MT) models, source duration and finite source parameters. A major result of the analysis of weaker events is the increased size of resulting moment tensor catalogues, which interpretation may become not trivial. For this reason, a novel focal mechanism clustering approach is used to automatically classify focal mechanisms, allowing the investigation of the most relevant and repetitive rupture features. The inversion of the mining induced seismicity dataset reveals the repetitive occurrence of similar rupture processes, where the source geometry is controlled by the shape of the mined panel. Moreover, moment tensor solutions indicate a significant contribution of tensile processes. Also the second application highlights some characteristic geometrical features of the fault planes, which show a general consistency with the orientation of the slab. The additional inversion for source duration allowed to verify the empirical correlation for moment normalized earthquakes in subduction zones among a decreasing rupture duration with increasing source depth, which was so far only observed for larger events.
Eolian dust is a significant source of iron and other nutrients that are essential for the health of marine ecosystems and potentially a controlling factor of the high nutrient-low chlorophyll status of the Subarctic North Pacific. We map the spatial distribution of dust input using three different geochemical tracers of eolian dust, He-4, Th-232 and rare earth elements, in combination with grain size distribution data, from a set of core-top sediments covering the entire Subarctic North Pacific. Using the suite of geochemical proxies to fingerprint different lithogenic components, we deconvolve eolian dust input from other lithogenic inputs such as volcanic ash, ice-rafted debris, riverine and hemipelagic input. While the open ocean sites far away from the volcanic arcs are dominantly composed of pure eolian dust, lithogenic components other than eolian dust play a more crucial role along the arcs. In sites dominated by dust, eolian dust input appears to be characterized by a nearly uniform grain size mode at similar to 4 mu m.
Applying the Th-230-normalization technique, our proxies yield a consistent pattern of uniform dust fluxes of 1-2 g/m(2)/yr across the Subarctic North Pacific. Elevated eolian dust fluxes of 2-4 g/m(2)/yr characterize the westernmost region off Japan and the southern Kurile Islands south of 45 degrees N and west of 165 degrees E along the main pathway of the westerly winds. The core-top based dust flux reconstruction is consistent with recent estimates based on dissolved thorium isotope concentrations in seawater from the Subarctic North Pacific. The dust flux pattern compares well with state-of-the-art dust model predictions in the western and central Subarctic North Pacific, but we find that dust fluxes are higher than modeled fluxes by 0.5-1 g/m(2)/yr in the northwest, northeast and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. Our results provide an important benchmark for biogeochemical models and a robust approach for downcore studies testing dust-induced iron fertilization of past changes in biological productivity in the Subarctic North Pacific.
Sedimentary proxies used to reconstruct marine productivity suffer from variable preservation and are sensitive to factors other than productivity. Therefore, proxy calibration is warranted. Here we map the spatial patterns of two paleoproductivity proxies, biogenic opal and barium fluxes, from a set of core-top sediments recovered in the Subarctic North Pacific. Comparisons of the proxy data with independent estimates of primary and export production, surface water macronutrient concentrations, and biological pCO(2) drawdown indicate that neither proxy shows a significant correlation with primary or export productivity for the entire region. Biogenic opal fluxes, when corrected for preservation using Th-230-normalized accumulation rates, show a good correlation with primary productivity along the volcanic arcs (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0024) and with export productivity throughout the western Subarctic North Pacific (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0107). Moderate and good correlations of biogenic barium flux with export production (tau = 0.57, p = 0.0022) and with surface water silicate concentrations (tau = 0.70, p = 0.0002) are observed for the central and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. For reasons unknown, however, no correlation is found in the western Subarctic North Pacific between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Nonetheless, we show that barite saturation, uncertainty in the lithogenic barium corrections, and problems with the reference data sets are not responsible for the lack of a significant correlation between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Further studies evaluating the factors controlling the variability of the biogenic constituents in the sediments are desirable in this region.
Carbonate reservoirs pose significant challenges for reservoir modelling and flow prediction due to heterogeneities in rock properties, limits to seismic resolution and limited constraints on subsurface data. Hence, a systematic and streamlined approach is needed to construct geological models and to quickly evaluate key sensitivities in the flow models. This paper discusses results from a reservoir analogue study of a Middle Jurassic carbonate ramp in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco that has stratigraphic and structural similarities to selected Middle East reservoirs. For this purpose, high-resolution geological models were constructed from the integration of sedimentological, diagenetic and structural studies in the area. The models are approximately 1200 x 1250 m in size, and only faults (no fractures) with offsets greater than 1 m are included. Novel methods have been applied to test the response of flow simulations to the presence or absence of specific geological features, including proxies for hardgrounds, stylolites, patch reefs, and mollusc banks, as a way to guide the level of detail that is suitable for modelling objectives. Our general conclusion from the study is that the continuity of any geological feature with extreme permeability (high or low) has the most significant impact on flow.
Aim To understand the role and significance of the reindeer, Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758), as a specific indicator in terms of late Quaternary biogeography and to determine the effects of global climate change on its range and local extinction dynamics at the end of the Ice Age.
Location Late Pleistocene/early Holocene range of reindeer over all of central and western Europe, including southern Scandinavia and northern Iberia, but excluding Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine.
Methods Radiocarbon-dated subfossil records of R. tarandus from both archaeological and natural deposits younger than 25,000 years were assembled in a database. The distribution area was divided into six representative regions. The C-14 dates were calibrated and plotted chronologically in maps in order to compare presence and absence and regional extinction patterns from one region to another.
Main conclusions The late Quaternary record for reindeer in Europe during the last 25 kyr shows a climate-driven dispersal and retreat in response to climate change, with regional variations. The collapse of the mammoth steppe biome did not lead to the local extinction in Europe, as in the case of other megafaunal species. Rangifer tarandus co-existed for about 3000 years during the Late Glacial and early Holocene with typical temperate species such as red deer and roe deer in non-analogue faunal communities. The regional extinction at the end of the Pleistocene coincides with the transition from light open birch/pine forests to pine/deciduous forests.
This paper employs a complex network approach to determine the topology and evolution of the network of extreme precipitation that governs the organization of extreme rainfall before, during, and after the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) season. We construct networks of extreme rainfall events during the ISM (June-September), post-monsoon (October-December), and pre-monsoon (March-May) periods from satellite-derived (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM) and rain-gauge interpolated (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE) data sets. The structure of the networks is determined by the level of synchronization of extreme rainfall events between different grid cells throughout the Indian subcontinent. Through the analysis of various complex-network metrics, we describe typical repetitive patterns in North Pakistan (NP), the Eastern Ghats (EG), and the Tibetan Plateau (TP). These patterns appear during the pre-monsoon season, evolve during the ISM, and disappear during the post-monsoon season. These are important meteorological features that need further attention and that may be useful in ISM timing and strength prediction.
In aquatic environments, community dynamics of bacteria, especially actively growing bacteria (AGB), are tightly linked with dissolved organic matter (DOM) quantity and quality. We analyzed the community dynamics of DNA-synthesizing and accordingly AGB by linking an improved bromodeoxyuridine immunocytochemistry approach with fluorescence-activated cell sorting (BrdU-FACS). FACS-sorted cells of even oligotrophic ecosystems in winter were characterized by 16S rRNA gene analysis. In incubation experiments, we examined community shifts of AGB in response to the addition of N-acetyl-glucosamine (NAG), one of the most abundant aminosugars in aquatic systems. Our improved BrdU-FACS analysis revealed that AGB winter communities of oligotrophic Lake Stechlin (northeastern Germany) substantially differ from those of total bacteria and consist of Alpha-, Beta-, Gamma-, Deltaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Candidatus OP10 and Chloroflexi. AGB populations with different BrdU-fluorescence intensities and cell sizes represented different phylotypes suggesting that single-cell growth potential varies at the taxon level. NAG incubation experiments demonstrated that a variety of widespread taxa related to Alpha-, Beta-, Gammaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Planctomycetes, Spirochaetes, Verrucomicrobia and Chloroflexi actively grow in the presence of NAG. The BrdU-FACS approach enables detailed phylogenetic studies of AGB and, thus, to identify those phylotypes which are potential key players in aquatic DOM cycling.
We report delta O-18 and delta C-13 values of 21 fossil shells from the aquatic gastropod Radix from a sediment core taken in the eastern basin of Lake Karakul, Tajikistan (38.86-39.16A degrees N, 73.26-73.56A degrees E, 3,928 m above sea level) and covering the last 4,200 cal yr BP. The lake is surrounded by many palaeoshorelines evidencing former lake-level changes, most likely triggered by changes in meltwater flux. This hypothesis was tested by interpreting the isotope ratios of Radix shells together with delta O-18 values of Ostracoda and of authigenic aragonite. The mean delta O-18 values of Radix and Ostracoda fall along the same long-term trend indicating a change in the isotopic composition of precipitation, which contributed to the glaciers in the catchment as snow and finally as melt water to the lake. The sclerochronological delta O-18 and delta C-13 patterns in Radix shells provide seasonal weather information, which is discussed in context with previously proposed climatic changes during the last 4,200 cal yr BP. The period between similar to 4,200 and 3,000 cal yr BP was characterized by stepwise glacier advance in the catchment most likely due to a precipitation surplus. Subsequently the climate remained relatively cold but the lake level fluctuated, as indicated by ostracod shell isotope data. From similar to 1,800 cal yr BP the sclerochronological patterns provide evidence for increasing melt water flux and transport of allochthonous carbon into the lake, most likely due to an accelerated glacier retreat. The period around 1,500 cal yr BP was characterized by strong warming, increasing meltwater flux, glacier retreat and an increasing lake level. Warm conditions continued until similar to 500 cal yr I'P probably representing the end of the Medieval Warm Period. A short relatively cold (dry?) period and a lower lake level are assumed for similar to 350 cal yr BP, possibly an analogue to the Maunder Minimum cooling in the North Atlantic region. Our results show that the lake system is complex, and that changes were triggered by external forcing and feedbacks. The similarity of delta O-18 values in Radix and ostracod shells demonstrates that both archives provide complementary information.
The widely reported paradox of methane oversaturation in oxygenated water challenges the prevailing paradigm that microbial methanogenesis only occurs under anoxic conditions. Using a combination of field sampling, incubation experiments, and modeling, we show that the recurring mid-water methane peak in Lake Stechlin, northeast Germany, was not dependent on methane input from the littoral zone or bottom sediment or on the presence of known micro-anoxic zones. The methane peak repeatedly overlapped with oxygen oversaturation in the seasonal thermocline. Incubation experiments and isotope analysis indicated active methane production, which was likely linked to photosynthesis and/or nitrogen fixation within the oxygenated water, whereas lessening of methane oxidation by light allowed accumulation of methane in the oxygen-rich upper layer. Estimated methane efflux from the surface water was up to 5 mmol m(-2) d(-1). Mid-water methane oversaturation was also observed in nine other lakes that collectively showed a strongly negative gradient of methane concentration within 0-20% dissolved oxygen (DO) in the bottom water, and a positive gradient within >= 20% DO in the upper water column. Further investigation into the responsible organisms and biochemical pathways will help improve our understanding of the global methane cycle.
This study examines the course and driving forces of recent vegetation change in the Mongolian steppe. A sediment core covering the last 55years from a small closed-basin lake in central Mongolia was analyzed for its multi-proxy record at annual resolution. Pollen analysis shows that highest abundances of planted Poaceae and highest vegetation diversity occurred during 1977-1992, reflecting agricultural development in the lake area. A decrease in diversity and an increase in Artemisia abundance after 1992 indicate enhanced vegetation degradation in recent times, most probably because of overgrazing and farmland abandonment. Human impact is the main factor for the vegetation degradation within the past decades as revealed by a series of redundancy analyses, while climate change and soil erosion play subordinate roles. High Pediastrum (a green algae) influx, high atomic total organic carbon/total nitrogen (TOC/TN) ratios, abundant coarse detrital grains, and the decrease of C-13(org) and N-15 since about 1977 but particularly after 1992 indicate that abundant terrestrial organic matter and nutrients were transported into the lake and caused lake eutrophication, presumably because of intensified land use. Thus, we infer that the transition to a market economy in Mongolia since the early 1990s not only caused dramatic vegetation degradation but also affected the lake ecosystem through anthropogenic changes in the catchment area.
AimFossil pollen spectra from lake sediments in central and western Mongolia have been used to interpret past climatic variations, but hitherto no suitable modern pollen-climate calibration set has been available to infer past climate changes quantitatively. We established such a modern pollen dataset and used it to develop a transfer function model that we applied to a fossil pollen record in order to investigate: (1) whether there was a significant moisture response to the Younger Dryas event in north-western Mongolia; and (2) whether the early Holocene was characterized by dry or wet climatic conditions.
LocationCentral and western Mongolia.
MethodsWe analysed pollen data from surface sediments from 90 lakes. A transfer function for mean annual precipitation (P-ann) was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) and applied to a fossil pollen record from Lake Bayan Nuur (49.98 degrees N, 93.95 degrees E, 932m a.s.l.). Statistical approaches were used to investigate the modern pollen-climate relationships and assess model performance and reconstruction output.
ResultsRedundancy analysis shows that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Spatial autocorrelation and significance tests of environmental variables show that the WA-PLS model for P-ann is the most valid function for our dataset, and possesses the lowest root mean squared error of prediction.
Main conclusionsPrecipitation is the most important predictor of pollen and vegetation distributions in our study area. Our quantitative climate reconstruction indicates a dry Younger Dryas, a relatively dry early Holocene, a wet mid-Holocene and a dry late Holocene.
We isolated and characterized 16 new di- and tetranudeotide microsatellite markers for the critically endangered Asian box turtle genus Cuora, focusing on the "Cuora trifasciata" species complex. The new markers were then used to analyse genetic variability and divergence amongst five described species within this complex, namely C. aurocapitata (n = 18), C. cyclornata (n = 31), C. pani (n = 6), C. trifasciata (n = 58), and C. zhoui (n = 7). Our results support the view that all five species represent valid taxa. Within two species (C. trifasciata and C. cyclornata), two distinct morphotypes were corroborated by microsatellite divergence. For three individuals, morphologically identified as being of hybrid origin, the hybrid status was confirmed by our genetic analysis. Our results confirm the controversial species (Cuora aurocapitata, C. cyclornata) and subspecies/morphotypes (C. cyclornata meieri, C. trifasciata cf. trifasciata) to be genetically distinct, which has critical implications for conservation strategies.
The age models of fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary sequences are often subject of discussions in paleoclimate research. The techniques employed to build an age model are very diverse, ranging from visual or intuitive estimation of the age-depth relationship over linear or spline interpolations between age control points to sophisticated Bayesian techniques also taking into account the most likely deposition times of the type of sediment within the sequence. All these methods, however, fail in detecting abrupt variations in sedimentation rates, including the possibility of episodes of no deposition (hiatus), which is the strength of the method presented in this work. The new technique simply compares the deposition time of equally thick sediment slices from the differences of subsequent radiometric age dates and the unit deposition times of the various sediment types. The percentage overlap of the distributions of these two sources of information, together with the evidence from the sedimentary record, helps to build an age model of complex sequences including abrupt variations in the rate of deposition including one or many hiatuses. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Vertical radar profiling (VRP) is a single-borehole geophysical technique, in which the receiver antenna is located within a borehole and the transmitter antenna is placed at one or various offsets from the borehole. Today, VRP surveying is primarily used to derive 1D velocity models by inverting the arrival times of direct waves. Using field data collected at a well-constrained test site in Germany, we evaluated a VRP workflow relying on the analysis of direct-arrival traveltimes and amplitudes as well as on imaging reflection events. To invert our VRP traveltime data, we used a global inversion strategy resulting in an ensemble of acceptable velocity models, and thus, it allowed us to appraise uncertainty issues in the estimated velocities as well as in porosity models derived via petrophysical translations. In addition to traveltime inversion, the analysis of direct-wave amplitudes and reflection events provided further valuable information regarding subsurface properties and architecture. The used VRP amplitude preprocessing and inversion procedures were adapted from raybased crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) attenuation tomography and resulted in an attenuation model, which can be used to estimate variations in electrical resistivity. Our VRP reflection imaging approach relied on corridor stacking, which is a well-established processing sequence in vertical seismic profiling. The resulting reflection image outlines bounding layers and can be directly compared to surface-based GPR reflection profiling. Our results of the combined analysis of VRP, traveltimes, amplitudes, and reflections were consistent with independent core and borehole logs as well as GPR reflection profiles, which enabled us to derive a detailed hydro-stratigraphic model as needed, for example, to understand and model groundwater flow and transport.
Global Positioning System (GPS) has been proven to be an effective tool to retrieve high-precision displacement for the natural hazard monitoring. The network positioning and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) are the two basic approaches for its data solution, but the former one can only get a relative displacement within the local reference frame and requires a complex and continuously linked infrastructure, and the latter one with a long convergence time to obtain the absolute displacements within the global reference frame. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposed a method of fast determining the displacement by PPP velocity estimation (PPPVE). The key of the approach is that the velocity vector parameters are not correlated with other unknown parameters, such as ambiguities and atmosphere, so they can be fast and accurately estimated and integrated into displacements. The validation shows that the displacement can be provided with a precision of 1-2 cm in 1 min by PPPVE. In additional, the Kalman smoothing estimation can be used to improve the PPP solution.
The complementary advantages of high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) and accelerometer observations for measuring seismic ground motion have been recognised in previous research. Here we propose an approach of tight integration of GPS and accelerometer measurements. The baseline shifts of the accelerometer are introduced as unknown parameters and estimated by a random walk process in the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solution. To demonstrate the performance of the new strategy, we carried out several experiments using collocated GPS and accelerometer. The experimental results show that the baseline shifts of the accelerometer are automatically corrected, and high precision coseismic information of strong ground motion can be obtained in real-time. Additionally, the convergence and precision of the PPP is improved by the combined solution.
The complementary advantages of GPS and seismic measurements are well recognized in seismotectonic monitoring studies. Therefore, integrated processing of the two data streams has been proposed recently in an attempt to obtain accurate and reliable information of surface displacements associated with earthquakes. A hitherto still critical issue in the integrated processing is real-time detection and precise estimation of the transient baseline error in the seismic records. Here, we report on a new approach by introducing the seismic acceleration corrected by baseline errors into the state equation system. The correction is performed and regularly updated in short epochs (with increments which may be as short as seconds), so that station position, velocity, and acceleration can be constrained very tightly and baseline error can be estimated as a random-walk process. With the adapted state equation system, our study highlights the use of a new approach developed for integrated processing of GPS and seismic data by means of sequential least-squares adjustment. The efficiency of our approach is demonstrated and validated using simulated, experimental, and real datasets. The latter were collected at collocated GPS and seismic stations around the 4 April 2010, E1 Mayor-Cucapah earthquake (Mw, 7.2). The results have shown that baseline errors of the strong-motion sensors are corrected precisely and high-precision seismic displacements are real-timely obtained by the new approach.
The real-time recognition and precise correction of baseline shifts in strong-motion records is a critical issue for GPS and accelerometer combined processing. This paper proposes a method to adaptively recognize and correct baseline shifts in strong-motion records by utilizing GPS measurements using two phases Kalman filter. By defining four kinds of learning statistics and criteria, the time series of estimated baseline shifts can be divided into four time intervals: initialization, static, transient and permanent. During the time interval in which the transient baseline shift is recognized, the dynamic noise of the Kalman filter system and the length of the baseline shifts estimation window are adaptively adjusted to yield a robust integration solution. The validations from an experimental and real datasets show that acceleration baseline shifts can be precisely recognized and corrected, thus, the combined system adaptively adjusted the estimation strategy to get a more robust solution. (C) 2014 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.