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Modelling of environmental change impacts on water resources and hydrological extremes in Germany
(2012)
Water resources, in terms of quantity and quality, are significantly influenced by environmental changes, especially by climate and land use changes. The main objective of the present study is to project climate change impacts on the seasonal dynamics of water fluxes, spatial changes in water balance components as well as the future flood and low flow conditions in Germany. This study is based on the modeling results of the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) driven by various regional climate scenarios on one hand. On the other hand, it is supported by statistical analysis on long-term trends of observed and simulated time series. In addition, this study evaluates the impacts of potential land use changes on water quality in terms of NO3-N load in selected sub-regions of the Elbe basin. In the context of climate change, the actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions in the scenario period 2051-2060. Water discharge in all six studied large rivers (Ems, Weser, Saale, Danube, Main and Neckar) would be 8 – 30% lower in summer and autumn compared to the reference period (1961 – 1990), and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern and central Germany after 2061 as suggested by more than 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until the late autumn at the end of this century. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). No general pattern of changes in flood directions can be concluded according to the results driven by different RCMs, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. An optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient loads and improvement of water quality. In the Weiße Elster and Unstrut sub-basins (Elbe), an increase of 10% in the winter rape area can result in 12-19% more NO3-N load in rivers. In contrast, another energy plant, maize, has a moderate effect on the water environment. Mineral fertilizers have a much stronger effect on the NO3-N load than organic fertilizers. Cover crops, which play an important role in the reduction of nitrate losses from fields, should be maintained on cropland. The uncertainty in estimating future high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remain high due to different RCM structures, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. In contrast, the projection of low flows under warmer climate conditions appears to be more pronounced and consistent. The largest source of uncertainty related to NO3-N modelling originates from the input data on the agricultural management.
One of the major problems for the implementation of water resources planning and management in arid and semi-arid environments is the scarcity of hydrological data and, consequently, research studies. In this thesis, the hydrology of dryland river systems was analyzed and a semi-distributed hydrological model and a forecasting approach were developed for flow transmission processes in river-systems with a focus on semi-arid conditions. Three different sources of hydrological data (streamflow series, groundwater level series and multi-temporal satellite data) were combined in order to analyze the channel transmission losses of a large reach of the Jaguaribe River in NE Brazil. A perceptual model of this reach was derived suggesting that the application of models, which were developed for sub-humid and temperate regions, may be more suitable for this reach than classical models, which were developed for arid and semi-arid regions. Summarily, it was shown that this river reach is hydraulically connected with groundwater and shifts from being a losing river at the dry and beginning of rainy seasons to become a losing/gaining (mostly losing) river at the middle and end of rainy seasons. A new semi-distributed channel transmission losses model was developed, which was based primarily on the capability of simulation in very different dryland environments and flexible model structures for testing hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes of rivers. This model was successfully tested in a large reach of the Jaguaribe River in NE Brazil and a small stream in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in the SW USA. Hypotheses on the dominant processes of the channel transmission losses (different model structures) in the Jaguaribe river were evaluated, showing that both lateral (stream-)aquifer water fluxes and ground-water flow in the underlying alluvium parallel to the river course are necessary to predict streamflow and channel transmission losses, the former process being more relevant than the latter. This procedure not only reduced model structure uncertainties, but also reported modelling failures rejecting model structure hypotheses, namely streamflow without river-aquifer interaction and stream-aquifer flow without groundwater flow parallel to the river course. The application of the model to different dryland environments enabled learning about the model itself from differences in channel reach responses. For example, the parameters related to the unsaturated part of the model, which were active for the small reach in the USA, presented a much greater variation in the sensitivity coefficients than those which drove the saturated part of the model, which were active for the large reach in Brazil. Moreover, a nonparametric approach, which dealt with both deterministic evolution and inherent fluctuations in river discharge data, was developed based on a qualitative dynamical system-based criterion, which involved a learning process about the structure of the time series, instead of a fitting procedure only. This approach, which was based only on the discharge time series itself, was applied to a headwater catchment in Germany, in which runoff are induced by either convective rainfall during the summer or snow melt in the spring. The application showed the following important features: • the differences between runoff measurements were more suitable than the actual runoff measurements when using regression models; • the catchment runoff system shifted from being a possible dynamical system contaminated with noise to a linear random process when the interval time of the discharge time series increased; • and runoff underestimation can be expected for rising limbs and overestimation for falling limbs. This nonparametric approach was compared with a distributed hydrological model designed for real-time flood forecasting, with both presenting similar results on average. Finally, a benchmark for hydrological research using semi-distributed modelling was proposed, based on the aforementioned analysis, modelling and forecasting of flow transmission processes. The aim of this benchmark was not to describe a blue-print for hydrological modelling design, but rather to propose a scientific method to improve hydrological knowledge using semi-distributed hydrological modelling. Following the application of the proposed benchmark to a case study, the actual state of its hydrological knowledge and its predictive uncertainty can be determined, primarily through rejected hypotheses on the dominant hydrological processes and differences in catchment/variables responses.
Sediment records of three European lakes were investigated in order to reconstruct the regional climate development during the Lateglacial and Holocene, to investigate the response of local ecosystems to climatic fluctuations and human impact and to relate regional peculiarities of past climate development to climatic changes on a larger spatial scale. The Lake Hańcza (NE Poland) sediment record was studied with a focus on reconstructing the early Holocene climate development and identifying possible differences to Western Europe. Following the initial Holocene climatic improvement, a further climatic improvement occurred between 10 000 and 9000 cal. a BP. Apparently, relatively cold and dry climate conditions persisted in NE Poland during the first ca. 1500 years of the Holocene, most likely due to a specific regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Prevailing anticyclonic circulation linked to a high-pressure cell above the remaining Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) might have blocked the eastward propagation of warm and moist Westerlies and thus attenuated the early Holocene climatic amelioration in this region until the final decay of the SIS, a pattern different from climate development in Western Europe. The Lateglacial sediment record of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was investigated in order to study the regional climate development and the environmental response to rapid climatic fluctuations. While the temperature rise and environmental response at the onset of the Holocene took place quasi-synchronously, major leads and lags in proxy responses characterize the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial. In particular, the spread of coniferous woodlands and the reduction of detrital flux lagged the initial Lateglacial warming by ca. 500–750 years. Major cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas took place synchronously with a change in vegetation, while the increase of detrital matter flux was delayed by about 150–300 years. Complex proxy responses are also detected for short-term Lateglacial climatic fluctuations. In summary, periods of abrupt climatic changes are characterized by complex and temporally variable proxy responses, mainly controlled by ecosystem inertia and the environmental preconditions. A second study on the Lake Mondsee sediment record focused on two small-scale climate deteriorations around 8200 and 9100 cal. a BP, which have been triggered by freshwater discharges to the North Atlantic, causing a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Combining microscopic varve counting and AMS 14C dating yielded a precise duration estimate (ca. 150 years) and absolute dating of the 8.2 ka cold event, both being in good agreement with results from other palaeoclimate records. Moreover, a sudden temperature overshoot after the 8.2 ka cold event was identified, also seen in other proxy records around the North Atlantic. This was most likely caused by enhanced resumption of the MOC, which also initiated substantial shifts of oceanic and atmospheric front systems. Although there is also evidence from other proxy records for pronounced recovery of the MOC and atmospheric circulation changes after the 9.1 ka cold event, no temperature overshoot is seen in the Lake Mondsee record, indicating the complex behaviour of the global climate system. The Holocene sediment record of Lake Iseo (northern Italy) was studied to shed light on regional earthquake activity and the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic impact on catchment erosion and detrital flux into the lake. Frequent small-scale detrital layers within the sediments reflect allochthonous sediment supply by extreme surface runoff events. During the early to mid-Holocene, increased detrital flux coincides with periods of cold and wet climate conditions, thus apparently being mainly controlled by climate variability. In contrast, intervals of high detrital flux during the late Holocene partly also correlate with phases of increased human impact, reflecting the complex influences on catchment erosion processes. Five large-scale event layers within the sediments, which are composed of mass-wasting deposits and turbidites, are supposed to have been triggered by strong local earthquakes. While the uppermost of these event layers is assigned to a documented adjacent earthquake in AD 1222, the four other layers are supposed to be related to previously undocumented prehistorical earthquakes.
Dryland vulnerability : typical patterns and dynamics in support of vulnerability reduction efforts
(2011)
The pronounced constraints on ecosystem functioning and human livelihoods in drylands are frequently exacerbated by natural and socio-economic stresses, including weather extremes and inequitable trade conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the relation between these stresses and the socio-ecological systems is important for advancing dryland development. The concept of vulnerability as applied in this dissertation describes this relation as encompassing the exposure to climate, market and other stresses as well as the sensitivity of the systems to these stresses and their capacity to adapt. With regard to the interest in improving environmental and living conditions in drylands, this dissertation aims at a meaningful generalisation of heterogeneous vulnerability situations. A pattern recognition approach based on clustering revealed typical vulnerability-creating mechanisms at global and local scales. One study presents the first analysis of dryland vulnerability with global coverage at a sub-national resolution. The cluster analysis resulted in seven typical patterns of vulnerability according to quantitative indication of poverty, water stress, soil degradation, natural agro-constraints and isolation. Independent case studies served to validate the identified patterns and to prove the transferability of vulnerability-reducing approaches. Due to their worldwide coverage, the global results allow the evaluation of a specific system’s vulnerability in its wider context, even in poorly-documented areas. Moreover, climate vulnerability of smallholders was investigated with regard to their food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Four typical groups of households were identified in this local dryland context using indicators for harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education and non-agricultural income. An elaborate validation relying on independently acquired information demonstrated the clear correlation between weather-related damages and the identified clusters. It also showed that household-specific causes of vulnerability were consistent with the mechanisms implied by the corresponding patterns. The synthesis of the local study provides valuable insights into the tailoring of interventions that reflect the heterogeneity within the social group of smallholders. The conditions necessary to identify typical vulnerability patterns were summarised in five methodological steps. They aim to motivate and to facilitate the application of the selected pattern recognition approach in future vulnerability analyses. The five steps outline the elicitation of relevant cause-effect hypotheses and the quantitative indication of mechanisms as well as an evaluation of robustness, a validation and a ranking of the identified patterns. The precise definition of the hypotheses is essential to appropriately quantify the basic processes as well as to consistently interpret, validate and rank the clusters. In particular, the five steps reflect scale-dependent opportunities, such as the outcome-oriented aspect of validation in the local study. Furthermore, the clusters identified in Northeast Brazil were assessed in the light of important endogenous processes in the smallholder systems which dominate this region. In order to capture these processes, a qualitative dynamic model was developed using generalised rules of labour allocation, yield extraction, budget constitution and the dynamics of natural and technological resources. The model resulted in a cyclic trajectory encompassing four states with differing degree of criticality. The joint assessment revealed aggravating conditions in major parts of the study region due to the overuse of natural resources and the potential for impoverishment. The changes in vulnerability-creating mechanisms identified in Northeast Brazil are well-suited to informing local adjustments to large-scale intervention programmes, such as “Avança Brasil”. Overall, the categorisation of a limited number of typical patterns and dynamics presents an efficient approach to improving our understanding of dryland vulnerability. Appropriate decision-making for sustainable dryland development through vulnerability reduction can be significantly enhanced by pattern-specific entry points combined with insights into changing hotspots of vulnerability and the transferability of successful adaptation strategies.
The impact of global warming on human water resources is attracting increasing attention. No other region in this world is so strongly affected by changes in water supply than the tropics. Especially in Africa, the availability and access to water is more crucial to existence (basic livelihoods and economic growth) than anywhere else on Earth. In East Africa, rainfall is mainly influenced by the migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with more rain and floods during El Niño and severe droughts during La Niña. The forecasting of East African rainfall in a warming world requires a better understanding of the response of ENSO-driven variability to mean climate. Unfortunately, existing meteorological data sets are too short or incomplete to establish a precise evaluation of future climate. From Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, we report records from a laminated lake sediment core spanning the last 25,000 years. Analyzing a monthly cleared sediment trap confirms the annual origin of the laminations and demonstrates that the varve-thicknesses are strongly linked to the duration and strength of the windy season. Given the modern control of seasonal ITCZ location on wind and rain in this region and the inverse relation between the two, thicker varves represent windier and thus drier years. El Niño (La Niña) events are associated with wetter (drier) conditions in east Africa and decreased (increased) surface wind speeds. Based on this fact, the thickness of the varves can be used as a tool to reconstruct a) annual rainfall b) wind season strength, and c) ENSO variability. Within this thesis, I found evidence for centennialscale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia, abrupt changes in variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and an overall reduction in East African rainfall and its variability during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake-sediment data, indicating that a future Indian Ocean warming will enhance East Africa’s hydrological cycle and its interannual variability in rainfall. Furthermore, I compared geochemical analyses from the sediment trap samples with a broad range of limnological, meteorological, and geological parameters to characterize the impact of sedimentation processes from the in-situ rocks to the deposited sediments. As a result an excellent calibration for existing μXRF data from Lake Challa over the entire 25,000 year long profile was provided. The climate development during the last 25,000 years as reconstructed from the Lake Challa sediments is in good agreement with other studies and highlights the complex interactions between long-term orbital forcing, atmosphere, ocean and land surface conditions. My findings help to understand how abrupt climate changes occur and how these changes correlate with climate changes elsewhere on Earth.
Rainfall, snow-, and glacial melt throughout the Himalaya control river discharge, which is vital for maintaining agriculture, drinking water and hydropower generation. However, the spatiotemporal contribution of these discharge components to Himalayan rivers is not well understood, mainly because of the scarcity of ground-based observations. Consequently, there is also little known about the triggers and sources of peak sediment flux events, which account for extensive hydropower reservoir filling and turbine abrasion. We therefore lack basic information on the distribution of water resources and controls of erosion processes. In this thesis, I employ various methods to assess and quantify general characteristics of and links between precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the Sutlej Valley. First, I analyze daily precipitation data (1998-2007) from 80 weather stations in the western Himalaya, to decipher the distribution of rain- and snowfall. Rainfall magnitude frequency analyses indicate that 40% of the summer rainfall budget is attributed to monsoonal rainstorms, which show higher variability in the orogenic interior than in frontal regions. Combined analysis of rainstorms and sediment flux data of a major Sutlej River tributary indicate that monsoonal rainfall has a first order control on erosion processes in the orogenic interior, despite the dominance of snowfall in this region. Second, I examine the contribution of rainfall, snow and glacial melt to river discharge in the Sutlej Valley (s55,000 km2), based on a distributed hydrological model, which covers the period 2000-2008. To achieve high spatial and daily resolution despite limited ground-based observations the hydrological model is forced by daily remote sensing data, which I adjusted and calibrated with ground station data. The calibration shows that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall product systematically overestimates rainfall in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing with aridity. The model results indicate that snowmelt-derived discharge (74%) is most important during the pre-monsoon season (April to June) whereas rainfall (56%) and glacial melt (17%) dominate the monsoon season (July-September). Therefore, climate change most likely causes a reduction in river discharge during the pre-monsoon season, which especially affects the orogenic interior. Third, I investigate the controls on suspended sediment flux in different parts of the Sutlej catchments, based on daily gauging data from the past decade. In conjunction with meteorological data, earthquake records, and rock strength measurements I find that rainstorms are the most frequent trigger of high-discharge events with peaks in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) that account for the bulk of the suspended sediment flux. The suspended sediment flux increases downstream, mainly due to increases in runoff. Pronounced erosion along the Himalayan Front occurs throughout the monsoon season, whereas efficient erosion of the orogenic interior is confined to single extreme events. The results of this thesis highlight the importance of snow and glacially derived melt waters in the western Himalaya, where extensive regions receive only limited amounts of monsoonal rainfall. These regions are therefore particularly susceptible to global warming with major implications on the hydrological cycle. However, the sediment discharge data show that infrequent monsoonal rainstorms that pass the orographic barrier of the Higher Himalaya are still the primary trigger of the highest-impact erosion events, despite being subordinate to snow and glacially–derived discharge. These findings may help to predict peak sediment flux events and could underpin the strategic development of preventative measures for hydropower infrastructures.
The complete consumption of the oceanic domain of a tectonic plate by subduction into the upper mantle results in continent subduction, although continental crust is typically of lower density than the upper mantle. Thus, the sites of former oceanic domains (named suture zones) are generally decorated with stratigraphic sequences deposited along continental passive margins that were metamorphosed under low-grade, high-pressure conditions, i.e., low temperature/depth ratios (< 15°C/km) with respect to geothermal gradients in tectonically stable regions. Throughout the Mesozoic and Cenozoic (i.e., since ca. 250 Ma), the Mediterranean realm was shaped by the closure of the Tethyan Ocean, which likely consisted in numerous oceanic domains and microcontinents. However, the exact number and position of Tethyan oceans and continents (i.e., the Tethyan palaeogeography) remains debated. This is particularly the case of Western and Central Anatolia, where a continental fragment was accreted to the southern composite margin of the Eurasia sometime between the Late Cretaceous and the early Cenozoic. The most frontal part of this microcontinent experienced subduction-related metamorphism around 85-80 Ma, and collision-related metamorphism affected more external parts around 35 Ma. This unsually-long period between subduction- and collision-related metamorphisms (ca. 50 Ma) in units ascribed to the same continental edge constitutes a crucial issue to address in order to unravel how Anatolia was assembled. The Afyon Zone is a tectono-sedimentary unit exposed south and structurally below the front high-pressure belt. It is composed of a Mesozoic sedimentary sequence deposited on top of a Precambrian to Palaeozoic continental substratum, which can be traced from Northwestern to southern Central Anatolia, along a possible Tethyan suture. Whereas the Afyon Zone was defined as a low-pressure metamorphic unit, high-pressure minerals (mainly Fe-Mg-carpholite in metasediments) were recently reported from its central part. These findings shattered previous conceptions on the tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Afyon Zone in particular, and of the entire region in general, and shed light on the necessity to revise the regional extent of subduction-related metamorphism by re-inspecting the petrology of poorly-studied metasediments. In this purpose, I re-evaluated the metamorphic evolution of the entire Afyon Zone starting from field observations. Low-grade, high-pressure mineral assemblages (Fe-Mg-carpholite and glaucophane) are reported throughout the unit. Well-preserved carpholite-chloritoid assemblages are useful to improve our understanding of mineral relations and transitions in the FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O system during rocks’ travel down to depth (prograde metamorphism). Inspection of petrographic textures, minute variations in mineral composition and Mg-Fe distribution among carpholite-chloritoid assemblages documents multistage mineral growth, accompanied by a progressive enrichment in Mg, and strong element partitioning. Using an updated database of mineral thermodynamic properties, I modelled the pressure and temperature conditions that are consistent with textural and chemical observations. Carpholite-bearing assemblages in the Afyon Zone account for a temperature increase from 280 to 380°C between 0.9 and 1.1 GPa (equivalent to a depth of 30-35 km). In order to further constrain regional geodynamics, first radiometric ages were determined in close association with pressure-temperature estimates for the Afyon Zone, as well as two other tectono-sedimentary units from the same continental passive margin (the Ören and Kurudere-Nebiler Units from SW Anatolia). For age determination, I employed 40Ar-39Ar geochronology on white mica in carpholite-bearing rocks. For thermobarometry, a multi-equilibrium approach was used based on quartz-chlorite-mica and quartz-chlorite-chloritoid associations formed at the expense of carpholite-bearing assemblages, i.e., during the exhumation from the subduction zone. This combination allows deciphering the significance of the calculated radiometric ages in terms of metamorphic conditions. Results show that the Afyon Zone and the Ören Unit represent a latest Cretaceous high-pressure metamorphic belt, and the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit was affected by subduction-related metamorphism around 45 Ma and cooled down after collision-related metamorphism around 26 Ma. The results provided in the present thesis and from the literature allow better understanding continental amalgamation in Western Anatolia. It is shown that at least two distinct oceanic branches, whereas only one was previously considered, have closed during continuous north-dipping subduction between 92 and 45 Ma. Between 85-80 and 70-65 Ma, a narrow continental domain (including the Afyon Zone) was buried into a subduction zone within the northern oceanic strand. Parts of the subducted continent crust were exhumed while the upper oceanic plate was transported southwards. Subduction of underlying lithosphere persisted, leading to the closure of the southern oceanic branch and to subduct the front of a second continental domain (including the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit). This followed by a continental collisional stage characterized by the cease of subduction, crustal thicknening and the detachment of the subducting oceanic slab from the accreted continent lithosphere. The present study supports that in the late Mesozoic the East Mediterranean realm had a complex tectonic configuration similar to present Southeast Asia or the Caribbean, with multiple, coexisting oceanic basins, microcontinents and subduction zones.
Motivation | Societal and economic needs of East Africa rely entirely on the availability of water, which is governed by the regular onset and retreat of the rainy seasons. Fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall has tremendous impact causing widespread famine, disease outbreaks and human migrations. Efforts towards high resolution forecasting of seasonal precipitation and hydrological systems are therefore needed, which requires high frequency short to long-term analyses of available climate data that I am going to present in this doctoral thesis by three different studies. 15,000 years - Suguta Valley | The main study of this thesis concentrated on the understanding of humidity changes within the last African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8-5.5 ka BP). The nature and causes of intensity variations of the West-African (WAM) and Indian Summer monsoons (ISM) during the AHP, especially their exact influence on regional climate relative to each other, is currently intensely debated. Here, I present a high-resolution multiproxy lake-level record spanning the AHP from the remote Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift, located between the WAM and ISM domains. The presently desiccated valley was during the AHP filled by a 300 m deep and 2200 km2 large palaeo-lake due to an increase in precipitation of only 26%. The record explains the synchronous onset of large lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) with the longitudinal shift of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) over the East African and Ethiopian Plateaus, as the direct consequence of an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East-Africa and India due to a precessional-forced northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Pronounced, and abrupt lake level fluctuations during the generally wet AHP are explained by small-scale solar irradiation changes weakening this pressure gradient atmospheric moisture availability preventing the CAB from reaching the study area. Instead, the termination of the AHP occurred, in a non-linear manner due to a change towards an equatorial insolation maximum ca. 6.5 ka ago extending the AHP over Ethiopia and West-Africa. 200 years - Lake Naivasha | The second part of the thesis focused on the analysis of a 200 year-old sediment core from Lake Naivasha in the Central Kenya Rift, one of the very few present freshwater lakes in East Africa. The results revealed and confirmed, that the appliance of proxy records for palaeo-climate reconstruction for the last 100 years within a time of increasing industrialisation and therefore human impact to the proxy-record containing sites are broadly limited. Since the middle of the 20th century, intense anthropogenic activity around Lake Naivasha has led to cultural eutrophication, which has overprinted the influence of natural climate variation to the lake usually inferred from proxy records such as diatoms, transfer-functions, geochemical and sedimentological analysis as used in this study. The results clarify the need for proxy records from remote unsettled areas to contribute with pristine data sets to current debates about anthropologic induced global warming since the past 100 years. 14 years - East African Rift | In order to avoid human influenced data sets and validate spatial and temporal heterogeneities of proxy-records from East Africa, the third part of the thesis therefore concentrated on the most recent past 14 years (1996-2010) detecting climate variability by using remotely sensed rainfall data. The advancement in the spatial coverage and temporal resolutions of rainfall data allow a better understanding of influencing climate mechanisms and help to better interpret proxy-records from the EARS in order to reconstruct past climate conditions. The study focuses on the dynamics of intraseasonal rainfall distribution within catchments of eleven lake basins in the EARS that are often used for palaeo-climate studies. We discovered that rainfall in adjacent basins exhibits high complexities in the magnitudes of intraseasonal variability, biennial to triennial precipitation patterns and even are not necessarily correlated often showing opposite trends. The variability among the watersheds is driven by the complex interaction of topography, in particular the shape, length and elevation of the catchment and its relative location to the East African Rift System and predominant influence of the ITCZ or CAB, whose locations and intensities are dependent on the strength of low pressure cells over India, SST variations in the Atlantic, Pacific or Indian Ocean, QBO phases and the 11-year solar cycle. Among all seasons we observed, January-September is the season of highest and most complex rainfall variability, especially for the East African Plateau basins, most likely due to the irregular penetration and sensitivity of the CAB.
The lakes of the East African Rift System (EARS) have been intensively studied to better understand the influence of climate change on hydrological systems. The exceptional sensitivity of these rift lakes, however, is both a challenge and an opportunity when trying to reconstruct past climate changes from changes in the hydrological budget of lake basins on timescales 100 to 104 years. On one hand, differences in basin geometrics (shape, area, volume, depth), catchment rainfall distributions and varying erosion-deposition rates complicate regional interpretation of paleoclimate information from lacustrine sediment proxies. On the other hand, the sensitivity of rift lakes often provides paleoclimate records of excellent quality characterized by a high signal-to-noise ratio. This study aims at better understanding of the climate-proxy generating process in rift lakes by parameterizing the geomorphological and hydroclimatic conditions of a particular site providing a step towards the establishment of regional calibrations of transfer functions for climate reconstructions. The knowledge of the sensitivity of a lake basin to climate change furthermore is crucial for a better assessment of the probability of catastrophic changes in the future, which bear risks for landscapes, ecosystems, and organisms of all sorts, including humans. Part 1 of this thesis explores the effect of the morphology and the effective moisture of a lake catchment. The availability of digital elevation models (DEM) and gridded climate data sets facilitates the comparison of the morphological and hydroclimatic conditions of rift lakes. I used the hypsometric integral (HI) calculated from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to describe the morphology of ten lake basins in Kenya and Ethiopia. The aridity index (AI) describing the difference in the precipitation/evaporation balance within a catchment was used to compare the hydroclimatic of these basins. Correlating HI and AI with published Holocene lake-level variations revealed that lakes responding sensitively to relatively moderate climate change are typically graben shaped and characterized by a HI between 0.23-0.30, and relatively humid conditions with AI >1. These amplifier lakes, a term first introduced but not fully parameterized by Alayne Street-Perrott in the early 80s, are unexceptionally located in the crest of the Kenyan and Ethiopian domes. The non-amplifier lakes in the EARS either have lower HI 0.13-0.22 and higher AI (>1) or higher HI (0.31-0.37) and low AI (<1), reflecting pan-shaped morphologies with more arid hydroclimatic conditions. Part 2 of this work addresses the third important factor to be considered when using lake-level and proxy records to unravel past climate changes in the EARS: interbasin connectivity and groundwater flow through faulted and porous subsurface lithologies in a rift setting. First, I have compiled the available hydrogeological data including lithology, resistivity and water-well data for the adjacent Naivasha and Elmenteita-Nakuru basins in the Central Kenya Rift. Using this subsurface information and established records of lake-level decline at the last wet-dry climate transitions, i.e., the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP, 15 to 5 kyr BP), I used a linear decay model to estimate typical groundwater flow between the two basins. The results suggest a delayed response of the groundwater levels of ca. 5 kyrs if no recharge of groundwater occurs during the wet-dry transition, whereas the lag is 2-2.7 kyrs only using the modern recharge of ca. 0.52 m/yr. The estimated total groundwater flow from higher Lake Naivasha (1,880 m a.s.l. during the AHP) to Nakuru-Elmenteita (1,770 m) was 40 cubic kilometers. The unexpectedly large volume, more than half of the volume of the paleo-Lake Naivasha during the Early Holocene, emphasizes the importance of groundwater in hydrological modeling of paleo-lakes in rifts. Moreover, the subsurface connectivity of rift lakes also causes a significant lag time to the system introducing a nonlinear component to the system that has to be considered while interpreting paleo-lake records. Part 3 of this thesis investigated the modern intraseasonal precipitation variability within eleven lake basins discussed in the first section of the study excluding Lake Victoria and including Lake Tana. Remotely sensed rainfall estimates (RFE) from FEWS NET for 1996-2010, are used for the, March April May (MAM) July August September (JAS), October November (ON) and December January February (DJF). The seasonal precipitation are averaged and correlated with the prevailing regional and local climatic mechanisms. Results show high variability with Biennial to Triennial precipitation patterns. The spatial distribution of precipitation in JAS are linked to the onset and strength of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) and Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics. while in ON they are related to the strength of Positive ENSO and IOD phases This study describes the influence of graben morphologies, extreme climate constrasts within catchments and basins connectivity through faults and porous lithologies on rift lakes. Hence, it shows the importance of a careful characterization of a rift lake by these parameters prior to concluding from lake-level and proxy records to climate changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the exceptional sensitivity of rift lakes to relatively moderate climate change and its consequences for water availability to the biosphere including humans.
Soil moisture is a key state variable that controls runoff formation, infiltration and partitioning of radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the experimental characterisation of near surface soil moisture patterns and their controls on runoff formation remains a challenge. This subject was one aspect of the BMBF-funded OPAQUE project (operational discharge and flooding predictions in head catchments). As part of that project the focus of this dissertation is on: (1) testing the methodology and feasibility of the Spatial TDR technology in producing soil moisture profiles along TDR probes, including an inversion technique of the recorded signal in heterogeneous field soils, (2) the analysis of spatial variability and temporal dynamics of soil moisture at the field scale including field experiments and hydrological modelling, (3) the application of models of different complexity for understanding soil moisture dynamics and its importance for runoff generation as well as for improving the prediction of runoff volumes. To fulfil objective 1, several laboratory experiments were conducted to understand the influence of probe rod geometry and heterogeneities in the sampling volume under different wetness conditions. This includes a detailed analysis on how these error sources affect retrieval of soil moisture profiles in soils. Concerning objective 2 a sampling strategy of two TDR clusters installed in the head water of the Wilde Weißeritz catchment (Eastern Ore Mountains, Germany) was used to investigate how well “the catchment state” can be characterised by means of distributed soil moisture data observed at the field scale. A grassland site and a forested site both located on gentle slopes were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters that consist of up to 39 TDR probes. Process understanding was gained by modelling the interaction of evapotranspiration and soil moisture with the hydrological process model CATFLOW. A field scale irrigation experiment was carried out to investigate near subsurface processes at the hillslope scale. The interactions of soil moisture and runoff formation were analysed using discharge data from three nested catchments: the Becherbach with a size of 2 km², the Rehefeld catchment (17 km²) and the superordinate Ammelsdorf catchment (49 km²). Statistical analyses including observations of pre-event runoff, soil moisture and different rainfall characteristics were employed to predict stream flow volume. On the different scales a strong correlation between the average soil moisture and the runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events could be found, which almost explains equivalent variability as the pre-event runoff. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between surface soil moisture and subsurface wetness with a hysteretic behaviour between runoff soil moisture. To fulfil objective 3 these findings were used in a generalised linear model (GLM) analysis which combines state variables describing the catchments antecedent wetness and variables describing the meteorological forcing in order to predict event runoff coefficients. GLM results were compared to simulations with the catchment model WaSiM ETH. Hereby were the model results of the GLMs always better than the simulations with WaSiM ETH. The GLM analysis indicated that the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes in typical functional units is a promising technique to explore soil moisture controls on runoff generation and can be an important link between the scales. Long term monitoring of such sites could yield valuable information for flood warning and forecasting by identifying critical soil moisture conditions for the former and providing a better representation of the initial moisture conditions for the latter.
The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
The use of nano zerovalent iron (nZVI) for environmental remediation is a promising new technique for in situ remediation. Due to its high surface area and high reactivity, nZVI is able to dechlorinate organic contaminants and render them harmless. Limited mobility, due to fast aggregation and sedimentation of nZVI, limits the capability for source and plume remediation. Carbo-Iron is a newly developed material consisting of activated carbon particles (d50 = 0,8 µm) that are plated with nZVI particles. These particles combine the mobility of activated carbon and the reactivity of nZVI. This paper presents the first results of the transport experiments.
Development of techniques for earthquake microzonation studies in different urban environment
(2010)
The proliferation of megacities in many developing countries, and their location in areas where they are exposed to a high risk from large earthquakes, coupled with a lack of preparation, demonstrates the requirement for improved capabilities in hazard assessment, as well as the rapid adjustment and development of land-use planning. In particular, within the context of seismic hazard assessment, the evaluation of local site effects and their influence on the spatial distribution of ground shaking generated by an earthquake plays an important role. It follows that the carrying out of earthquake microzonation studies, which aim at identify areas within the urban environment that are expected to respond in a similar way to a seismic event, are essential to the reliable risk assessment of large urban areas. Considering the rate at which many large towns in developing countries that are prone to large earthquakes are growing, their seismic microzonation has become mandatory. Such activities are challenging and techniques suitable for identifying site effects within such contexts are needed. In this dissertation, I develop techniques for investigating large-scale urban environments that aim at being non-invasive, cost-effective and quickly deployable. These peculiarities allow one to investigate large areas over a relative short time frame, with a spatial sampling resolution sufficient to provide reliable microzonation. Although there is a negative trade-off between the completeness of available information and extent of the investigated area, I attempt to mitigate this limitation by combining two, what I term layers, of information: in the first layer, the site effects at a few calibration points are well constrained by analyzing earthquake data or using other geophysical information (e.g., shear-wave velocity profiles); in the second layer, the site effects over a larger areal coverage are estimated by means of single-station noise measurements. The microzonation is performed in terms of problem-dependent quantities, by considering a proxy suitable to link information from the first layer to the second one. In order to define the microzonation approach proposed in this work, different methods for estimating site effects have been combined and tested in Potenza (Italy), where a considerable amount of data was available. In particular, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio computed for seismic noise recorded at different sites has been used as a proxy to combine the two levels of information together and to create a microzonation map in terms of spectral intensity ratio (SIR). In the next step, I applied this two-layer approach to Istanbul (Turkey) and Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan). A similar hybrid approach, i.e., combining earthquake and noise data, has been used for the microzonation of these two different urban environments. For both cities, after having calibrated the fundamental frequencies of resonance estimated from seismic noise with those obtained by analysing earthquakes (first layer), a fundamental frequency map has been computed using the noise measurements carried out within the town (second layer). By applying this new approach, maps of the fundamental frequency of resonance for Istanbul and Bishkek have been published for the first time. In parallel, a microzonation map in terms of SIR has been incorporated into a risk scenario for the Potenza test site by means of a dedicated regression between spectral intensity (SI) and macroseismic intensity (EMS). The scenario study confirms the importance of site effects within the risk chain. In fact, their introduction into the scenario led to an increase of about 50% in estimates of the number of buildings that would be partially or totally collapsed. Last, but not least, considering that the approach developed and applied in this work is based on measurements of seismic noise, their reliability has been assessed. A theoretical model describing the self-noise curves of different instruments usually adopted in microzonation studies (e.g., those used in Potenza, Istanbul and Bishkek) have been considered and compared with empirical data recorded in Cologne (Germany) and Gubbio (Italy). The results show that, depending on the geological and environmental conditions, the instrumental noise could severely bias the results obtained by recording and analysing ambient noise. Therefore, in this work I also provide some guidelines for measuring seismic noise.
Indonesia is one of the countries most prone to natural hazards. Complex interaction of several tectonic plates with high relative velocities leads to approximately two earthquakes with magnitude Mw>7 every year, being more than 15% of the events worldwide. Earthquakes with magnitude above 9 happen far more infrequently, but with catastrophic effects. The most severe consequences thereby arise from tsunamis triggered by these subduction-related earthquakes, as the Sumatra-Andaman event in 2004 showed. In order to enable efficient tsunami early warning, which includes the estimation of wave heights and arrival times, it is necessary to combine different types of real-time sensor data with numerical models of earthquake sources and tsunami propagation. This thesis was created as a result of the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). It is based on five research papers and manuscripts. Main project-related task was the development of a database containing realistic earthquake scenarios for the Sunda Arc. This database provides initial conditions for tsunami propagation modeling used by the simulation system at the early warning center. An accurate discretization of the subduction geometry, consisting of 25x150 subfaults was constructed based on seismic data. Green’s functions, representing the deformational response to unit dip- and strike slip at the subfaults, were computed using a layered half-space approach. Different scaling relations for earthquake dimensions and slip distribution were implemented. Another project-related task was the further development of the ‘GPS-shield’ concept. It consists of a constellation of near field GPS-receivers, which are shown to be very valuable for tsunami early warning. The major part of this thesis is related to the geophysical interpretation of GPS data. Coseismic surface displacements caused by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake are inverted for slip at the fault. The effect of different Earth layer models is tested, favoring continental structure. The possibility of splay faulting is considered and shown to be a secondary order effect in respect to tsunamigenity for this event. Tsunami models based on source inversions are compared to satellite radar altimetry observations. Postseismic GPS time series are used to test a wide parameter range of uni- and biviscous rheological models of the asthenosphere. Steady-state Maxwell rheology is shown to be incompatible with near-field GPS data, unless large afterslip, amounting to more than 10% of the coseismic moment is assumed. In contrast, transient Burgers rheology is in agreement with data without the need for large aseismic afterslip. Comparison to postseismic geoid observation by the GRACE satellites reveals that even with afterslip, the model implementing Maxwell rheology results in amplitudes being too small, and thus supports a biviscous asthenosphere. A simple approach based on the assumption of quasi-static deformation propagation is introduced and proposed for inversion of coseismic near-field GPS time series. Application of this approach to observations from the 2004 Sumatra event fails to quantitatively reconstruct the rupture propagation, since a priori conditions are not fulfilled in this case. However, synthetic tests reveal the feasibility of such an approach for fast estimation of rupturing properties.
Situated in an active tectonic region, Santiago de Chile, the country´s capital with more than six million inhabitants, faces tremendous earthquake hazard. Macroseismic data for the 1985 Valparaiso and the 2010 Maule events show large variations in the distribution of damage to buildings within short distances indicating strong influence of local sediments and the shape of the sediment-bedrock interface on ground motion. Therefore, a temporary seismic network was installed in the urban area for recording earthquake activity, and a study was carried out aiming to estimate site amplification derived from earthquake data and ambient noise. The analysis of earthquake data shows significant dependence on the local geological structure with regards to amplitude and duration. Moreover, the analysis of noise spectral ratios shows that they can provide a lower bound in amplitude for site amplification and, since no variability in terms of time and amplitude is observed, that it is possible to map the fundamental resonance frequency of the soil for a 26 km x 12 km area in the northern part of the Santiago de Chile basin. By inverting the noise spectral rations, local shear wave velocity profiles could be derived under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover which had previously been determined by gravimetric measurements. The resulting 3D model was derived by interpolation between the single shear wave velocity profiles and shows locally good agreement with the few existing velocity profile data, but allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in greater detail. The wealth of available data allowed further to check if any correlation between the shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (vs30) and the slope of topography, a new technique recently proposed by Wald and Allen (2007), exists on a local scale. While one lithology might provide a greater scatter in the velocity values for the investigated area, almost no correlation between topographic gradient and calculated vs30 exists, whereas a better link is found between vs30 and the local geology. When comparing the vs30 distribution with the MSK intensities for the 1985 Valparaiso event it becomes clear that high intensities are found where the expected vs30 values are low and over a thick sedimentary cover. Although this evidence cannot be generalized for all possible earthquakes, it indicates the influence of site effects modifying the ground motion when earthquakes occur well outside of the Santiago basin. Using the attained knowledge on the basin characteristics, simulations of strong ground motion within the Santiago Metropolitan area were carried out by means of the spectral element technique. The simulation of a regional event, which has also been recorded by a dense network installed in the city of Santiago for recording aftershock activity following the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, shows that the model is capable to realistically calculate ground motion in terms of amplitude, duration, and frequency and, moreover, that the surface topography and the shape of the sediment bedrock interface strongly modify ground motion in the Santiago basin. An examination on the dependency of ground motion on the hypocenter location for a hypothetical event occurring along the active San Ramón fault, which is crossing the eastern outskirts of the city, shows that the unfavorable interaction between fault rupture, radiation mechanism, and complex geological conditions in the near-field may give rise to large values of peak ground velocity and therefore considerably increase the level of seismic risk for Santiago de Chile.
The Antarctic plays an important role in the global climate system. On the one hand, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest freshwater reservoir on Earth. On the other hand, a major proportion of the global bottom-water formation takes place in Antarctic shelf regions, forcing the global thermohaline circulation. The main goal of this dissertation is to provide new insights into the dynamics and stability of the EAIS during the Quaternary. Additionally, variations in the activity of bottom-water formation and their causes are investigated. The dissertation is a German contribution to the International Polar Year 2007/ 2008 and was funded by the ‘Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft’ (DFG) within the scope of priority program 1158 ‘Antarctic research with comparative studies in Arctic ice regions’. During RV Polarstern expedition ANT-XXIII/9, glaciomarine sediments were recovered from the Prydz Bay-Kerguelen region. Prydz Bay is a key region for the study of East EAIS dynamics, as 16% of the EAIS are drained through the Lambert Glacier into the bay. Thereby, the glacier transports sediment into Prydz Bay which is then further distributed by calving icebergs or by current transport. The scientific approach of this dissertation is the reconstruction of past glaciomarine environments to infer on the response of the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system to climate shifts during the Quaternary. To characterize the depositional setting, sedimentological methods are used and statistical analyses are applied. Mineralogical and (bio)geochemical methods provide a means to reconstruct sediment provenances and to provide evidence on changes in the primary production in the surface water column. Age-depth models were constructed based on palaeomagnetic and palaeointensity measurements, diatom stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating. Sea-bed surface sediments in the investigation area show distinct variations in terms of their clay minerals and heavy-mineral assemblages. Considerable differences in the mineralogical composition of surface sediments are determined on the continental shelf. Clay minerals as well as heavy minerals provide useful parameters to differentiate between sediments which originated from erosion of crystalline rocks and sediments originating from Permo-Triassic deposits. Consequently, mineralogical parameters can be used to reconstruct the provenance of current-transported and ice-rafted material. The investigated sediment cores cover the time intervals of the last 1.4 Ma (continental slope) and the last 12.8 cal. ka BP (MacRobertson shelf). The sediment deposits were mainly influenced by glacial and oceanographic processes and further by biological activity (continental shelf), meltwater input and possibly gravitational transport. Sediments from the continental slope document two major deglacial events: the first deglaciation is associated with the mid-Pleistocene warming recognized around the Antarctic. In Prydz Bay, the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf retreated far to the south and high biogenic productivity commenced or biogenic remains were better preserved due to increased sedimentation rates. Thereafter, stable glacial conditions continued until 400 - 500 ka BP. Calving of icebergs was restricted to the western part of the Lambert Glacier. The deeper bathymetry in this area allows for floating ice shelf even during times of decreased sea-level. Between 400 - 500 ka BP and the last interglacial (marine isotope stage 5) the glacier was more dynamic. During or shortly after the last interglacial the LAIS retreated again due to sea-level rise of 6 - 9 m. Both deglacial events correlate with a reduction in the thickness of ice masses in the Prince Charles Mountains. It indicates that a disintegration of the Amery Ice Shelf possibly led to increased drainage of ice masses from the Prydz Bay hinterland. A new end-member modelling algorithm was successfully applied on sediments from the MacRobertson shelf used to unmix the sand grain size fractions sorted by current activity and ice transport, respectively. Ice retreat on MacRobertson Shelf commenced 12.8 cal. ka BP and ended around 5.5 cal. ka BP. During the Holocene, strong fluctuations of the bottomwater activity were observed, probably related to variations of sea-ice formation in the Cape Darnley polynya. Increased activity of bottom-water flow was reconstructed at transitions from warm to cool conditions, whereas bottom-water activity receded during the mid- Holocene climate optimum. It can be concluded that the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system was relatively stable in terms of climate variations during the Quaternary. In contrast, bottom-water formation due to polynya activity was very sensitive to changes in atmospheric forcing and should gain more attention in future research.
Spatial and temporal temperature and moisture patterns across the Tibetan Plateau are very complex. The onset and magnitude of the Holocene climate optimum in the Asian monsoon realm, in particular, is a subject of considerable debate as this time period is often used as an analogue for recent global warming. In the light of contradictory inferences regarding past climate and environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau, I have attempted to explain mismatches in the timing and magnitude of change. Therefore, I analysed the temporal variation of fossil pollen and diatom spectra and the geochemical record from palaeo-ecological records covering different time scales (late Quaternary and the last 200 years) from two core regions in the NE and SE Tibetan Plateau. For interpretation purposes I combined my data with other available palaeo-ecological data to set up corresponding aquatic and terrestrial proxy data sets of two lake pairs and two sets of sites. I focused on the direct comparison of proxies representing lacustrine response to climate signals (e.g., diatoms, ostracods, geochemical record) and proxies representing changes in the terrestrial environment (i.e., terrestrial pollen), in order to asses whether the lake and its catchments respond at similar times and magnitudes to environmental changes. Therefore, I introduced the established numerical technique procrustes rotation as a new approach in palaeoecology to quantitatively compare raw data of any two sedimentary records of interest in order to assess their degree of concordance. Focusing on the late Quaternary, sediment cores from two lakes (Kuhai Lake 35.3°N; 99.2°E; 4150 m asl; and Koucha Lake 34.0°N; 97.2°E; 4540 m asl) on the semi-arid northeastern Tibetan Plateau were analysed to identify post-glacial vegetation and environmental changes, and to investigate the responses of lake ecosystems to such changes. Based on the pollen record, five major vegetation and climate changes could be identified: (1) A shift from alpine desert to alpine steppe indicates a change from cold, dry conditions to warmer and more moist conditions at 14.8 cal. ka BP, (2) alpine steppe with tundra elements points to conditions of higher effective moisture and a stepwise warming climate at 13.6 cal. ka BP, (3) the appearance of high-alpine meadow vegetation indicates a further change towards increased moisture, but with colder temperatures, at 7.0 cal. ka BP, (4) the reoccurrence of alpine steppe with desert elements suggests a return to a significantly colder and drier phase at 6.3 cal. ka BP, and (5) the establishment of alpine steppe-meadow vegetation indicates a change back to relatively moist conditions at 2.2 cal. ka BP. To place the reconstructed climate inferences from the NE Tibetan Plateau into the context of Holocene moisture evolution across the Tibetan Plateau, I applied a five-scale moisture index and average link clustering to all available continuous pollen and non-pollen palaeoclimate records from the Tibetan Plateau, in an attempt to detect coherent regional and temporal patterns of moisture evolution on the Plateau. However, no common temporal or spatial pattern of moisture evolution during the Holocene could be detected, which can be assigned to the complex responses of different proxies to environmental changes in an already very heterogeneous mountain landscape, where minor differences in elevation can result in marked variations in microenvironments. Focusing on the past 200 years, I analysed the sedimentary records (LC6 Lake 29.5°N, 94.3°E, 4132 m asl; and Wuxu Lake 29.9°N, 101.1°E, 3705 m asl) from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. I found that despite presumed significant temperature increases over that period, pollen and diatom records from the SE Tibetan Plateau reveal only very subtle changes throughout their profiles. The compositional species turnover investigated over the last 200 years appears relatively low in comparison to the species reorganisations during the Holocene. The results indicate that climatically induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem. Forest clearances and reforestation have not caused forest decline in our study area, but a conversion of natural forests to semi-natural secondary forests. The results from the numerical proxy comparison of the two sets of two pairs of Tibetan lakes indicate that the use of different proxies and the work with palaeo-ecological records from different lake types can cause deviant stories of inferred change. Irrespective of the timescale (Holocene or last 200 years) or region (SE or NE Tibetan Plateau) analysed, the agreement in terms of the direction, timing, and magnitude of change between the corresponding terrestrial data sets is generally better than the match between the corresponding lacustrine data sets, suggesting that lacustrine proxies may partly be influenced by in-lake or local catchment processes whereas the terrestrial proxy reflects a more regional climatic signal. The current disaccord on coherent temporal and spatial climate patterns on the Tibetan Plateau can partly be ascribed to the complexity of proxy response and lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, a multi-proxy, multi-site approach is important in order to gain a reliable climate interpretation for the complex mountain landscape of the Tibetan Plateau.
The seismicity of the Dead Sea fault zone (DSFZ) during the last two millennia is characterized by a number of damaging and partly devastating earthquakes. These events pose a considerable seismic hazard and seismic risk to Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, and Israel. The occurrence rates for large earthquakes along the DSFZ show indications to temporal changes in the long-term view. The aim of this thesis is to find out, if the occurrence rates of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) in different parts of the DSFZ are time-dependent and how. The results are applied to probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in the DSFZ and neighboring areas. Therefore, four time-dependent statistical models (distributions), including Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal and Brownian Passage Time (BPT), are applied beside the exponential distribution (Poisson process) as the classical time-independent model. In order to make sure, if the earthquake occurrence rate follows a unimodal or a multimodal form, a nonparametric bootstrap test of multimodality has been done. A modified method of weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is applied to estimate the parameters of the models. For the multimodal cases, an Expectation Maximization (EM) method is used in addition to the MLE method. The selection of the best model is done by two methods; the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) as well as a modified Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters corresponding to the candidate models are calculated, using the bootstrap confidence sets. In this thesis, earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6 along the DSFZ, with a width of about 20 km and inside 29.5° ≤ latitude ≤ 37° are considered as the dataset. The completeness of this dataset is calculated since 300 A.D. The DSFZ has been divided into three sub zones; the southern, the central and the northern sub zone respectively. The central and the northern sub zones have been investigated but not the southern sub zone, because of the lack of sufficient data. The results of the thesis for the central part of the DSFZ show that the earthquake occurrence rate does not significantly pursue a multimodal form. There is also no considerable difference between the time-dependent and time-independent models. Since the time-independent model is easier to interpret, the earthquake occurrence rate in this sub zone has been estimated under the exponential distribution assumption (Poisson process) and will be considered as time-independent with the amount of 9.72 * 10-3 events/year. The northern part of the DSFZ is a special case, where the last earthquake has occurred in 1872 (about 137 years ago). However, the mean recurrence time of Mw ≥ 6 events in this area is about 51 years. Moreover, about 96 percent of the observed earthquake inter-event times (the time between two successive earthquakes) in the dataset regarding to this sub zone are smaller than 137 years. Therefore, it is a zone with an overdue earthquake. The results for this sub zone verify that the earthquake occurrence rate is strongly time-dependent, especially shortly after an earthquake occurrence. A bimodal Weibull-Weibull model has been selected as the best fit for this sub zone. The earthquake occurrence rate, corresponding to the selected model, is a smooth function of time and reveals two clusters within the time after an earthquake occurrence. The first cluster begins right after an earthquake occurrence, lasts about 80 years, and is explicitly time-dependent. The occurrence rate, regarding to this cluster, is considerably lower right after an earthquake occurrence, increases strongly during the following ten years and reaches its maximum about 0.024 events/year, then decreases over the next 70 years to its minimum about 0.0145 events/year. The second cluster begins 80 years after an earthquake occurrence and lasts until the next earthquake occurs. The earthquake occurrence rate, corresponding to this cluster, increases extremely slowly, such as it can be considered as an almost constant rate about 0.015 events/year. The results are applied to calculate the time-dependent PSHA in the northern part of the DSFZ and neighbouring areas.
The East African Plateau provides a spectacular example of geodynamic plateau uplift, active continental rifting, and associated climatic forcing. It is an integral part of the East African Rift System and has an average elevation of approximately 1,000 m. Its location coincides with a negative Bouguer gravity anomaly with a semi-circular shape, closely related to a mantle plume, which influences the Cenozoic crustal development since its impingement in Eocene-Oligocene time. The uplift of the East African Plateau, preceding volcanism, and rifting formed an important orographic barrier and tectonically controlled environment, which is profoundly influenced by climate driven processes. Its location within the equatorial realm supports recently proposed hypotheses, that topographic changes in this region must be considered as the dominant forcing factor influencing atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall distribution. The uplift of this region has therefore often been associated with fundamental climatic and environmental changes in East Africa and adjacent regions. While the far-reaching influence of the plateau uplift is widely accepted, the timing and the magnitude of the uplift are ambiguous and are still subject to ongoing discussion. This dilemma stems from the lack of datable, geomorphically meaningful reference horizons that could record surface uplift. In order to quantify the amount of plateau uplift and to find evidence for the existence of significant relief along the East African Plateau prior to rifting, I analyzed and modeled one of the longest terrestrial lava flows; the 300-km-long Yatta phonolite flow in Kenya. This lava flow is 13.5 Ma old and originated in the region that now corresponds to the eastern rift shoulders. The phonolitic flow utilized an old riverbed that once drained the eastern flank of the plateau. Due to differential erosion this lava flow now forms a positive relief above the parallel-flowing Athi River, which is mimicking the course of the paleo-river. My approach is a lava-flow modeling, based on an improved composition and temperature dependent method to parameterize the flow of an arbitrary lava in a rectangular-shaped channel. The essential growth pattern is described by a one-dimensional model, in which Newtonian rheological flow advance is governed by the development of viscosity and/or velocity in the internal parts of the lava-flow front. Comparing assessments of different magma compositions reveal that length-dominated, channelized lava flows are characterized by high effusion rates, rapid emplacement under approximately isothermal conditions, and laminar flow. By integrating the Yatta lava flow dimensions and the covered paleo-topography (slope angle) into the model, I was able to determine the pre-rift topography of the East African Plateau. The modeling results yield a pre-rift slope of at least 0.2°, suggesting that the lava flow must have originated at a minimum elevation of 1,400 m. Hence, high topography in the region of the present-day Kenya Rift must have existed by at least 13.5 Ma. This inferred mid-Miocene uplift coincides with the two-step expansion of grasslands, as well as important radiation and speciation events in tropical Africa. Accordingly, the combination of my results regarding the Yatta lava flow emplacement history, its location, and its morphologic character, validates it as a suitable “paleo-tiltmeter” and has thus to be considered as an important topographic and volcanic feature for the topographic evolution in East Africa.
Crustal deformation can be the result of volcanic and tectonic activity such as fault dislocation and magma intrusion. The crustal deformation may precede and/or succeed the earthquake occurrence and eruption. Mitigating the associated hazard, continuous monitoring of the crustal deformation accordingly has become an important task for geo-observatories and fast response systems. Due to highly non-linear behavior of the crustal deformation fields in time and space, which are not always measurable using conventional geodetic methods (e.g., Leveling), innovative techniques of monitoring and analysis are required. In this thesis I describe novel methods to improve the ability for precise and accurate mapping the spatiotemporal surface deformation field using multi acquisitions of satellite radar data. Furthermore, to better understand the source of such spatiotemporal deformation fields, I present novel static and time dependent model inversion approaches. Almost any interferograms include areas where the signal decorrelates and is distorted by atmospheric delay. In this thesis I detail new analysis methods to reduce the limitations of conventional InSAR, by combining the benefits of advanced InSAR methods such as the permanent scatterer InSAR (PSI) and the small baseline subsets (SBAS) with a wavelet based data filtering scheme. This novel InSAR time series methodology is applied, for instance, to monitor the non-linear deformation processes at Hawaii Island. The radar phase change at Hawaii is found to be due to intrusions, eruptions, earthquakes and flank movement processes and superimposed by significant environmental artifacts (e.g., atmospheric). The deformation field, I obtained using the new InSAR analysis method, is in good agreement with continuous GPS data. This provides an accurate spatiotemporal deformation field at Hawaii, which allows time dependent source modeling. Conventional source modeling methods usually deal with static deformation field, while retrieving the dynamics of the source requires more sophisticated time dependent optimization approaches. This problem I address by combining Monte Carlo based optimization approaches with a Kalman Filter, which provides the model parameters of the deformation source consistent in time. I found there are numerous deformation sources at Hawaii Island which are spatiotemporally interacting, such as volcano inflation is associated to changes in the rifting behavior, and temporally linked to silent earthquakes. I applied these new methods to other tectonic and volcanic terrains, most of which revealing the importance of associated or coupled deformation sources. The findings are 1) the relation between deep and shallow hydrothermal and magmatic sources underneath the Campi Flegrei volcano, 2) gravity-driven deformation at Damavand volcano, 3) fault interaction associated with the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 4) independent block wise flank motion at the Hilina Fault system, Kilauea, and 5) interaction between salt diapir and the 2005 Qeshm earthquake in southern Iran. This thesis, written in cumulative form including 9 manuscripts published or under review in peer reviewed journals, improves the techniques for InSAR time series analysis and source modeling and shows the mutual dependence between adjacent deformation sources. These findings allow more realistic estimation of the hazard associated with complex volcanic and tectonic systems.
Recent large earthquakes put in evidence the need of improving and developing robust and rapid procedures to properly calculate the magnitude of an earthquake in a short time after its occurrence. The most famous example is the 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake, when the limitations of the standard procedures adopted at that time by many agencies failed to provide accurate magnitude estimates of this exceptional event in time to launch early enough warnings and appropriate response. Being related to the radiated seismic energy ES, the energy magnitude ME is a good estimator of the high frequency content radiated by the source which goes into the seismic waves. However, a procedure to rapidly determine ME (that is to say, within 15 minutes after the earthquake occurrence) was required. Here it is presented a procedure able to provide in a rapid way the energy magnitude ME for shallow earthquakes by analyzing teleseismic P‑waves in the distance range 20-98. To account for the energy loss experienced by the seismic waves from the source to the receivers, spectral amplitude decay functions obtained from numerical simulations of Greens functions based on the average global model AK135Q are used. The proposed method has been tested using a large global dataset (~1000 earthquakes) and the obtained rapid ME estimations have been compared to other magnitude scales from different agencies. Special emphasis is given to the comparison with the moment magnitude MW, since the latter is very popular and extensively used in common seismological practice. However, it is shown that MW alone provide only limited information about the seismic source properties, and that disaster management organizations would benefit from a combined use of MW and ME in the prompt evaluation of an earthquake’s tsunami and shaking potential. In addition, since the proposed approach for ME is intended to work without knowledge of the fault plane geometry (often available only hours after an earthquake occurrence), the suitability of this method is discussed by grouping the analyzed earthquakes according to their type of mechanism (strike-slip, normal faulting, thrust faulting, etc.). No clear trend is found from the rapid ME estimates with the different fault plane solution groups. This is not the case for the ME routinely determined by the U.S. Geological Survey, which uses specific radiation pattern corrections. Further studies are needed to verify the effect of such corrections on ME estimates. Finally, exploiting the redundancy of the information provided by the analyzed dataset, the components of variance on the single station ME estimates are investigated. The largest component of variance is due to the intra-station (record-to-record) error, although the inter-station (station-to-station) error is not negligible and is of several magnitude units for some stations. Moreover, it is shown that the intra-station component of error is not random but depends on the travel path from a source area to a given station. Consequently, empirical corrections may be used to account for the heterogeneities of the real Earth not considered in the theoretical calculations of the spectral amplitude decay functions used to correct the recorded data for the propagation effects.
The seismically active Alborz mountains of northern Iran are an integral part of the Arabia-Eurasia collision. Linked strike-slip and thrust/reverse-fault systems in this mountain belt are characterized by slow loading rates, and large earthquakes are highly disparate in space and time. Similar to other intracontinental deformation zones such a pattern of tectonic activity is still insufficiently understood, because recurrence intervals between seismic events may be on the order of thousands of years, and are thus beyond the resolution of short term measurements based on GPS or instrumentally recorded seismicity. This study bridges the gap of deformation processes on different time scales. In particular, my investigation focuses on deformation on the Quaternary time scale, beyond present-day deformation rates, and it uses present-day and paleotectonic characteristics to model fault behavior. The study includes data based on structural and geomorphic mapping, faultkinematic analysis, DEM-based morphometry, and numerical fault-interaction modeling. In order to better understand the long- to short term behavior of such complex fault systems, I used geomorphic surfaces as strain markers and dated fluvial and alluvial surfaces using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN, 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). My investigation focuses on the seismically active Mosha-Fasham fault (MFF) and the seismically virtually inactive North Tehran Thrust (NTT), adjacent to the Tehran metropolitan area. Fault-kinematic data reveal an early mechanical linkage of the NTT and MFF during an earlier dextral transpressional stage, when the shortening direction was oriented northwest. This regime was superseded by Pliocene to Recent NE-oriented shortening, which caused thrusting and sinistral strike-slip faulting. In the course of this kinematic changeover, the NTT and MFF were reactivated and incorporated into a nascent transpressional duplex, which has significantly affected landscape evolution in this part of the range. Two of three distinctive features which characterize topography and relief in the study area can be directly related to their location inside the duplex array and are thus linked to interaction between eastern MFF and NTT, and between western MFF and Taleghan fault, respectively. To account for inferred inherited topography from the previous dextral-transpression regime, a new concept of tectonic landscape characterization has been used. Accordingly, I define simple landscapes as those environments, which have developed during the influence of a sustained tectonic regime. In contrast, composite landscapes contain topographic elements inherited from previous tectonic conditions that are inconsistent with the regional present-day stress field and kinematic style. Using numerical fault-interaction modeling with different tectonic boundary conditions, I calculated synoptic snapshots of artificial topography to compare it with the real topographic metrics. However, in the Alborz mountains, E-W faults are favorably oriented to accommodate the entire range of NW- to NE-directed compression. These faults show the highest total displacement which might indicate sustained faulting under changing boundary conditions. In contrast to the fault system within and at the flanks of the Alborz mountains, Quaternary deformation in the adjacent Tehran plain is characterized by oblique motion and thrust and strike-slip fault systems. In this morphotectonic province fault-propagation folding along major faults, limited strike-slip motion, and en-échelon arrays of second-order upper plate thrusts are typical. While the Tehran plain is characterized by young deformation phenomena, the majority of faulting took place in the early stages of the Quaternary and during late Pliocene time. TCN-dating, which was performed for the first time on geomorphic surfaces in the Tehran plain, revealed that the oldest two phases of alluviation (units A and B) must be older than late Pleistocene. While urban development in Tehran increasingly covers and obliterates the active fault traces, the present-day kinematic style, the vestiges of formerly undeformed Quaternary landforms, and paleo earthquake indicators from the last millennia attest to the threat that these faults and their related structures pose for the megacity.
Based on technological advances made within the past decades, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has become a well-established, non-destructive subsurface imaging technique. Catalyzed by recent demands for high-resolution, near-surface imaging (e.g., the detection of unexploded ordnances and subsurface utilities, or hydrological investigations), the quality of today's GPR-based, near-surface images has significantly matured. At the same time, the analysis of oil and gas related reflection seismic data sets has experienced significant advances. Considering the sensitivity of attribute analysis with respect to data positioning in general, and multi-trace attributes in particular, trace positioning accuracy is of major importance for the success of attribute-based analysis flows. Therefore, to study the feasibility of GPR-based attribute analyses, I first developed and evaluated a real-time GPR surveying setup based on a modern tracking total station (TTS). The combination of current GPR systems capability of fusing global positioning system (GPS) and geophysical data in real-time, the ability of modern TTS systems to generate a GPS-like positional output and wireless data transmission using radio modems results in a flexible and robust surveying setup. To elaborate the feasibility of this setup, I studied the major limitations of such an approach: system cross-talk and data delays known as latencies. Experimental studies have shown that when a minimal distance of ~5 m between the GPR and the TTS system is considered, the signal-to-noise ratio of the acquired GPR data using radio communication equals the one without radio communication. To address the limitations imposed by system latencies, inherent to all real-time data fusion approaches, I developed a novel correction (calibration) strategy to assess the gross system latency and to correct for it. This resulted in the centimeter trace accuracy required by high-frequency and/or three-dimensional (3D) GPR surveys. Having introduced this flexible high-precision surveying setup, I successfully demonstrated the application of attribute-based processing to GPR specific problems, which may differ significantly from the geological ones typically addressed by the oil and gas industry using seismic data. In this thesis, I concentrated on archaeological and subsurface utility problems, as they represent typical near-surface geophysical targets. Enhancing 3D archaeological GPR data sets using a dip-steered filtering approach, followed by calculation of coherency and similarity, allowed me to conduct subsurface interpretations far beyond those obtained by classical time-slice analyses. I could show that the incorporation of additional data sets (magnetic and topographic) and attributes derived from these data sets can further improve the interpretation. In a case study, such an approach revealed the complementary nature of the individual data sets and, for example, allowed conclusions about the source location of magnetic anomalies by concurrently analyzing GPR time/depth slices to be made. In addition to archaeological targets, subsurface utility detection and characterization is a steadily growing field of application for GPR. I developed a novel attribute called depolarization. Incorporation of geometrical and physical feature characteristics into the depolarization attribute allowed me to display the observed polarization phenomena efficiently. Geometrical enhancement makes use of an improved symmetry extraction algorithm based on Laplacian high-boosting, followed by a phase-based symmetry calculation using a two-dimensional (2D) log-Gabor filterbank decomposition of the data volume. To extract the physical information from the dual-component data set, I employed a sliding-window principle component analysis. The combination of the geometrically derived feature angle and the physically derived polarization angle allowed me to enhance the polarization characteristics of subsurface features. Ground-truth information obtained by excavations confirmed this interpretation. In the future, inclusion of cross-polarized antennae configurations into the processing scheme may further improve the quality of the depolarization attribute. In addition to polarization phenomena, the time-dependent frequency evolution of GPR signals might hold further information on the subsurface architecture and/or material properties. High-resolution, sparsity promoting decomposition approaches have recently had a significant impact on the image and signal processing community. In this thesis, I introduced a modified tree-based matching pursuit approach. Based on different synthetic examples, I showed that the modified tree-based pursuit approach clearly outperforms other commonly used time-frequency decomposition approaches with respect to both time and frequency resolutions. Apart from the investigation of tuning effects in GPR data, I also demonstrated the potential of high-resolution sparse decompositions for advanced data processing. Frequency modulation of individual atoms themselves allows to efficiently correct frequency attenuation effects and improve resolution based on shifting the average frequency level. GPR-based attribute analysis is still in its infancy. Considering the growing widespread realization of 3D GPR studies there will certainly be an increasing demand towards improved subsurface interpretations in the future. Similar to the assessment of quantitative reservoir properties through the combination of 3D seismic attribute volumes with sparse well-log information, parameter estimation in a combined manner represents another step in emphasizing the potential of attribute-driven GPR data analyses.
Earthquake faults interact with each other in many different ways and hence earthquakes cannot be treated as individual independent events. Although earthquake interactions generally lead to a complex evolution of the crustal stress field, it does not necessarily mean that the earthquake occurrence becomes random and completely unpredictable. In particular, the interplay between earthquakes can rather explain the occurrence of pronounced characteristics such as periods of accelerated and depressed seismicity (seismic quiescence) as well as spatiotemporal earthquake clustering (swarms and aftershock sequences). Ignoring the time-dependence of the process by looking at time-averaged values – as largely done in standard procedures of seismic hazard assessment – can thus lead to erroneous estimations not only of the activity level of future earthquakes but also of their spatial distribution. Therefore, it exists an urgent need for applicable time-dependent models. In my work, I aimed at better understanding and characterization of the earthquake interactions in order to improve seismic hazard estimations. For this purpose, I studied seismicity patterns on spatial scales ranging from hydraulic fracture experiments (meter to kilometer) to fault system size (hundreds of kilometers), while the temporal scale of interest varied from the immediate aftershock activity (minutes to months) to seismic cycles (tens to thousands of years). My studies revealed a number of new characteristics of fluid-induced and stress-triggered earthquake clustering as well as precursory phenomena in earthquake cycles. Data analysis of earthquake and deformation data were accompanied by statistical and physics-based model simulations which allow a better understanding of the role of structural heterogeneities, stress changes, afterslip and fluid flow. Finally, new strategies and methods have been developed and tested which help to improve seismic hazard estimations by taking the time-dependence of the earthquake process appropriately into account.
In the high mountains of Asia, glaciers cover an area of approximately 115,000 km² and constitute one of the largest continental ice accumulations outside Greenland and Antarctica. Their sensitivity to climate change makes them valuable palaeoclimate archives, but also vulnerable to current and predicted Global Warming. This is a pressing problem as snow and glacial melt waters are important sources for agriculture and power supply of densely populated regions in south, east, and central Asia. Successful prediction of the glacial response to climate change in Asia and mitigation of the socioeconomic impacts requires profound knowledge of the climatic controls and the dynamics of Asian glaciers. However, due to their remoteness and difficult accessibility, ground-based studies are rare, as well as temporally and spatially limited. We therefore lack basic information on the vast majority of these glaciers. In this thesis, I employ different methods to assess the dynamics of Asian glaciers on multiple time scales. First, I tested a method for precise satellite-based measurement of glacier-surface velocities and conducted a comprehensive and regional survey of glacial flow and terminus dynamics of Asian glaciers between 2000 and 2008. This novel and unprecedented dataset provides unique insights into the contrasting topographic and climatic controls of glacial flow velocities across the Asian highlands. The data document disparate recent glacial behavior between the Karakoram and the Himalaya, which I attribute to the competing influence of the mid-latitude westerlies during winter and the Indian monsoon during summer. Second, I tested whether such climate-related longitudinal differences in glacial behavior also prevail on longer time scales, and potentially account for observed regionally asynchronous glacial advances. I used cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating of erratic boulders on moraines to obtain a glacial chronology for the upper Tons Valley, situated in the headwaters of the Ganges River. This area is located in the transition zone from monsoonal to westerly moisture supply and therefore ideal to examine the influence of these two atmospheric circulation regimes on glacial advances. The new glacial chronology documents multiple glacial oscillations during the last glacial termination and during the Holocene, suggesting largely synchronous glacial changes in the western Himalayan region that are related to gradual glacial-interglacial temperature oscillations with superimposed monsoonal precipitation changes of higher frequency. In a third step, I combine results from short-term satellite-based climate records and surface velocity-derived ice-flux estimates, with topographic analyses to deduce the erosional impact of glaciations on long-term landscape evolution in the Himalayan-Tibetan realm. The results provide evidence for the long-term effects of pronounced east-west differences in glaciation and glacial erosion, depending on climatic and topographic factors. Contrary to common belief the data suggest that monsoonal climate in the central Himalaya weakens glacial erosion at high elevations, helping to maintain a steep southern orographic barrier that protects the Tibetan Plateau from lateral destruction. The results of this thesis highlight how climatic and topographic gradients across the high mountains of Asia affect glacier dynamics on time scales ranging from 10^0 to 10^6 years. Glacial response times to climate changes are tightly linked to properties such as debris cover and surface slope, which are controlled by the topographic setting, and which need to be taken into account when reconstructing mountainous palaeoclimate from glacial histories or assessing the future evolution of Asian glaciers. Conversely, the regional topographic differences of glacial landscapes in Asia are partly controlled by climatic gradients and the long-term influence of glaciers on the topographic evolution of the orogenic system.
Flood design necessitates discharge estimates for large recurrence intervals. However, in a flood frequency analysis, the uncertainty of discharge estimates increases with higher recurrence intervals, particularly due to the small number of available flood data. Furthermore, traditional distribution functions increase unlimitedly without consideration of an upper bound discharge. Hence, additional information needs to be considered which is representative for high recurrence intervals. Envelope curves which bound the maximum observed discharges of a region are an adequate regionalisation method to provide additional spatial information for the upper tail of a distribution function. Probabilistic regional envelope curves (PRECs) are an extension of the traditional empirical envelope curve approach, in which a recurrence interval is estimated for a regional envelope curve (REC). The REC is constructed for a homogeneous pooling group of sites. The estimation of this recurrence interval is based on the effective sample years of data considering the intersite dependence among all sites of the pooling group. The core idea of this thesis was an improvement of discharge estimates for high recurrence intervals by integrating empirical and probabilistic regional envelope curves into the flood frequency analysis. Therefore, the method of probabilistic regional envelope curves was investigated in detail. Several pooling groups were derived by modifying candidate sets of catchment descriptors and settings of two different pooling methods. These were used to construct PRECs. A sensitivity analysis shows the variability of discharges and the recurrence intervals for a given site due to the different assumptions. The unit flood of record which governs the intercept of PREC was determined as the most influential aspect. By separating the catchments into nested and unnested pairs, the calculation algorithm for the effective sample years of data was refined. In this way, the estimation of the recurrence intervals was improved, and therefore the use of different parameter sets for nested and unnested pairs of catchments is recommended. In the second part of this thesis, PRECs were introduced into a distribution function. Whereas in the traditional approach only discharge values are used, PRECs provide a discharge and its corresponding recurrence interval. Hence, a novel approach was developed, which allows a combination of the PREC results with the traditional systematic flood series while taking the PREC recurrence interval into consideration. An adequate mixed bounded distribution function was presented, which in addition to the PREC results also uses an upper bound discharge derived by an empirical envelope curve. By doing so, two types of additional information which are representative for the upper tail of a distribution function were included in the flood frequency analysis. The integration of both types of additional information leads to an improved discharge estimation for recurrence intervals between 100 and 1000 years.
Large-scale volcanic deformation recently detected by radar interferometry (InSAR) provides new information and thus new scientific challenges for understanding volcano-tectonic activity and magmatic systems. The destabilization of such a system at depth noticeably affects the surrounding environment through magma injection, ground displacement and volcanic eruptions. To determine the spatiotemporal evolution of the Lazufre volcanic area located in the central Andes, we combined short-term ground displacement acquired by InSAR with long-term geological observations. Ground displacement was first detected using InSAR in 1997. By 2008, this displacement affected 1800 km2 of the surface, an area comparable in size to the deformation observed at caldera systems. The original displacement was followed in 2000 by a second, small-scale, neighbouring deformation located on the Lastarria volcano. We performed a detailed analysis of the volcanic structures at Lazufre and found relationships with the volcano deformations observed with InSAR. We infer that these observations are both likely to be the surface expression of a long-lived magmatic system evolving at depth. It is not yet clear whether Lazufre may trigger larger unrest or volcanic eruptions; however, the second deformation detected at Lastarria and the clear increase of the large-scale deformation rate make this an area of particular interest for closer continuous monitoring.
Temporal gravimeter observations, used in geodesy and geophysics to study variation of the Earth’s gravity field, are influenced by local water storage changes (WSC) and – from this perspective – add noise to the gravimeter signal records. At the same time, the part of the gravity signal caused by WSC may provide substantial information for hydrologists. Water storages are the fundamental state variable of hydrological systems, but comprehensive data on total WSC are practically inaccessible and their quantification is associated with a high level of uncertainty at the field scale. This study investigates the relationship between temporal gravity measurements and WSC in order to reduce the hydrological interfering signal from temporal gravity measurements and to explore the value of temporal gravity measurements for hydrology for the superconducting gravimeter (SG) of the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany. A 4D forward model with a spatially nested discretization domain was developed to simulate and calculate the local hydrological effect on the temporal gravity observations. An intensive measurement system was installed at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell and WSC were measured in all relevant storage components, namely groundwater, saprolite, soil, top soil and snow storage. The monitoring system comprised also a suction-controlled, weighable, monolith-filled lysimeter, allowing an all time first comparison of a lysimeter and a gravimeter. Lysimeter data were used to estimate WSC at the field scale in combination with complementary observations and a hydrological 1D model. Total local WSC were derived, uncertainties were assessed and the hydrological gravity response was calculated from the WSC. A simple conceptual hydrological model was calibrated and evaluated against records of a superconducting gravimeter, soil moisture and groundwater time series. The model was evaluated by a split sample test and validated against independently estimated WSC from the lysimeter-based approach. A simulation of the hydrological gravity effect showed that WSC of one meter height along the topography caused a gravity response of 52 µGal, whereas, generally in geodesy, on flat terrain, the same water mass variation causes a gravity change of only 42 µGal (Bouguer approximation). The radius of influence of local water storage variations can be limited to 1000 m and 50 % to 80 % of the local hydro¬logical gravity signal is generated within a radius of 50 m around the gravimeter. At the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, WSC in the snow pack, top soil, unsaturated saprolite and fractured aquifer are all important terms of the local water budget. With the exception of snow, all storage components have gravity responses of the same order of magnitude and are therefore relevant for gravity observations. The comparison of the total hydrological gravity response to the gravity residuals obtained from the SG, showed similarities in both short-term and seasonal dynamics. However, the results demonstrated the limitations of estimating total local WSC using hydrological point measurements. The results of the lysimeter-based approach showed that gravity residuals are caused to a larger extent by local WSC than previously estimated. A comparison of the results with other methods used in the past to correct temporal gravity observations for the local hydrological influence showed that the lysimeter measurements improved the independent estimation of WSC significantly and thus provided a better way of estimating the local hydrological gravity effect. In the context of hydrological noise reduction, at sites where temporal gravity observations are used for geophysical studies beyond local hydrology, the installation of a lysimeter in combination with complementary hydrological measurements is recommended. From the hydrological view point, using gravimeter data as a calibration constraint improved the model results in comparison to hydrological point measurements. Thanks to their capacity to integrate over different storage components and a larger area, gravimeters provide generalized information on total WSC at the field scale. Due to their integrative nature, gravity data must be interpreted with great care in hydrological studies. However, gravimeters can serve as a novel measurement instrument for hydrology and the application of gravimeters especially designed to study open research questions in hydrology is recommended.
With the increasing availability of observational data from different sources at a global level, joint analysis of these data is becoming especially attractive. For such an analysis – oftentimes with little prior knowledge about local and global interactions between the different observational variables at hand – an exploratory, data-driven analysis of the data may be of particular relevance. In the present work we used generalized additive models (GAM) in an exemplary study of spatio-temporal patterns in the tropospheric NO2-distribution derived from GOME satellite observations (1996 to 2001) at global scale. We focused on identifying correlations between NO2 and local wind fields, a quantity which is of particular interest in the analysis of spatio-temporal interactions. Formulating general functional, parametric relationships between the observed NO2 distribution and local wind fields, however, is difficult – if not impossible. So, rather than following a modelbased analysis testing the data for predefined hypotheses (assuming, for example, sinusoidal seasonal trends), we used a GAM with non-parametric model terms to learn this functional relationship between NO2 and wind directly from the data. The NO2 observations showed to be affected by winddominated processes over large areas. We estimated the extent of areas affected by specific NO2 emission sources, and were able to highlight likely atmospheric transport “pathways”. General temporal trends which were also part of our model – weekly, seasonal and linear changes – showed to be in good agreement with previous studies and alternative ways of analysing the time series. Overall, using a non-parametric model provided favorable means for a rapid inspection of this large spatio-temporal NO2 data set, with less bias than parametric approaches, and allowing to visualize dynamical processes of the NO2 distribution at a global scale.
In 1915, Alfred Wegener published his hypotheses of plate tectonics that revolutionised the world for geologists. Since then, many scientists have studied the evolution of continents and especially the geologic structure of orogens: the most visible consequence of tectonic processes. Although the morphology and landscape evolution of mountain belts can be observed due to surface processes, the driving force and dynamics at lithosphere scale are less well understood despite the fact that rocks from deeper levels of orogenic belts are in places exposed at the surface. In this thesis, such formerly deeply-buried (ultra-) high-pressure rocks, in particular eclogite facies series, have been studied in order to reveal details about the formation and exhumation conditions and rates and thus provide insights into the geodynamics of the most spectacular orogenic belt in the world: the Himalaya. The specific area investigated was the Kaghan Valley in Pakistan (NW Himalaya). Following closure of the Tethyan Ocean by ca. 55-50 Ma, the northward subduction of the leading edge of India beneath the Eurasian Plate and subsequent collision initiated a long-lived process of intracrustal thrusting that continues today. The continental crust of India – granitic basement, Paleozoic and Mesozoic cover series and Permo-Triassic dykes, sills and lavas – has been buried partly to mantle depths. Today, these rocks crop out as eclogites, amphibolites and gneisses within the Higher Himalayan Crystalline between low-grade metamorphosed rocks (600-640°C/ ca. 5 kbar) of the Lesser Himalaya and Tethyan sediments. Beside tectonically driven exhumation mechanisms the channel flow model, that describes a denudation focused ductile extrusion of low viscosity material developed in the middle to lower crust beneath the Tibetan Plateau, has been postulated. To get insights into the lithospheric and crustal processes that have initiated and driven the exhumation of this (ultra-) high-pressure rocks, mineralogical, petrological and isotope-geochemical investigations have been performed. They provide insights into 1) the depths and temperatures to which these rocks were buried, 2) the pressures and temperatures the rocks have experienced during their exhumation, 3) the timing of these processes 4) and the velocity with which these rocks have been brought back to the surface. In detail, through microscopical studies, the identification of key minerals, microprobe analyses, standard geothermobarometry and modelling using an effective bulk rock composition it has been shown that published exhumation paths are incomplete. In particular, the eclogites of the northern Kaghan Valley were buried to depths of 140-100 km (36-30 kbar) at 790-640°C. Subsequently, cooling during decompression (exhumation) towards 40-35 km (17-10 kbar) and 630-580°C has been superseded by a phase of reheating to about 720-650°C at roughly the same depth before final exhumation has taken place. In the southern-most part of the study area, amphibolite facies assemblages with formation conditions similar to the deduced reheating phase indicate a juxtaposition of both areas after the eclogite facies stage and thus a stacking of Indian Plate units. Radiometric dating of zircon, titanite and rutile by U-Pb and amphibole and micas by Ar-Ar reveal peak pressure conditions at 47-48 Ma. With a maximum exhumation rate of 14 cm/a these rocks reached the crust-mantle boundary at 40-35 km within 1 Ma. Subsequent exhumation (46-41 Ma, 40-35 km) decelerated to ca. 1 mm/a at the base of the continental crust but rose again to about 2 mm/a in the period of 41-31 Ma, equivalent to 35-20 km. Apatite fission track (AFT) and (U-Th)/He ages from eclogites, amphibolites, micaschists and gneisses yielded moderate Oligocene to Miocene cooling rates of about 10°C/Ma in the high altitude northern parts of the Kaghan Valley using the mineral-pair method. AFT ages are of 24.5±3.8 to 15.6±2.1 Ma whereas apatite (U-Th)/He analyses yielded ages between 21.0±0.6 and 5.3±0.2 Ma. The southern-most part of the Valley is dominated by younger late Miocene to Pliocene apatite fission track ages of 7.6±2.1 and 4.0±0.5 Ma that support earlier tectonically and petrologically findings of a juxtaposition and stack of Indian Plate units. As this nappe is tectonically lowermost, a later distinct exhumation and uplift driven by thrusting along the Main Boundary Thrust is inferred. A multi-stage exhumation path is evident from petrological, isotope-geochemical and low temperature thermochronology investigations. Buoyancy driven exhumation caused an initial rapid exhumation: exhumation as fast as recent normal plate movements (ca. 10 cm/a). As the exhuming units reached the crust-mantle boundary the process slowed down due to changes in buoyancy. Most likely, this exhumation pause has initiated the reheating event that is petrologically evident (e.g. glaucophane rimmed by hornblende, ilmenite overgrowth of rutile). Late stage processes involved widespread thrusting and folding with accompanied regional greenschist facies metamorphism, whereby contemporaneous thrusting on the Batal Thrust (seen by some authors equivalent to the MCT) and back sliding of the Kohistan Arc along the inverse reactivated Main Mantle Thrust caused final exposure of these rocks. Similar circumstances have been seen at Tso Morari, Ladakh, India, 200 km further east where comparable rock assemblages occur. In conclusion, as exhumation was already done well before the initiation of the monsoonal system, climate dependent effects (erosion) appear negligible in comparison to far-field tectonic effects.
The Tibetan Plateau is the largest elevated landmass in the world and profoundly influences atmospheric circulation patterns such as the Asian monsoon system. Therefore this area has been increasingly in focus of palaeoenvironmental studies. This thesis evaluates the applicability of organic biomarkers for palaeolimnological purposes on the Tibetan Plateau with a focus on aquatic macrophyte-derived biomarkers. Submerged aquatic macrophytes have to be considered to significantly influence the sediment organic matter due to their high abundance in many Tibetan lakes. They can show highly 13C-enriched biomass because of their carbon metabolism and it is therefore crucial for the interpretation of δ13C values in sediment cores to understand to which extent aquatic macrophytes contribute to the isotopic signal of the sediments in Tibetan lakes and in which way variations can be explained in a palaeolimnological context. Additionally, the high abundance of macrophytes makes them interesting as potential recorders of lake water δD. Hydrogen isotope analysis of biomarkers is a rapidly evolving field to reconstruct past hydrological conditions and therefore of special relevance on the Tibetan Plateau due to the direct linkage between variations of monsoon intensity and changes in regional precipitation / evaporation balances. A set of surface sediment and aquatic macrophyte samples from the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau was analysed for composition as well as carbon and hydrogen isotopes of n-alkanes. It was shown how variable δ13C values of bulk organic matter and leaf lipids can be in submerged macrophytes even of a single species and how strongly these parameters are affected by them in corresponding sediments. The estimated contribution of the macrophytes by means of a binary isotopic model was calculated to be up to 60% (mean: 40%) to total organic carbon and up to 100% (mean: 66%) to mid-chain n-alkanes. Hydrogen isotopes of n-alkanes turned out to record δD of meteoric water of the summer precipitation. The apparent enrichment factor between water and n-alkanes was in range of previously reported ones (≈-130‰) at the most humid sites, but smaller (average: -86‰) at sites with a negative moisture budget. This indicates an influence of evaporation and evapotranspiration on δD of source water for aquatic and terrestrial plants. The offset between δD of mid- and long-chain n-alkanes was close to zero in most of the samples, suggesting that lake water as well as soil and leaf water are affected to a similar extent by those effects. To apply biomarkers in a palaeolimnological context, the aliphatic biomarker fraction of a sediment core from Lake Koucha (34.0° N; 97.2° E; eastern Tibetan Plateau) was analysed for concentrations, δ13C and δD values of compounds. Before ca. 8 cal ka BP, the lake was dominated by aquatic macrophyte-derived mid-chain n-alkanes, while after 6 cal ka BP high concentrations of a C20 highly branched isoprenoid compound indicate a predominance of phytoplankton. Those two principally different states of the lake were linked by a transition period with high abundances of microbial biomarkers. δ13C values were relatively constant for long-chain n-alkanes, while mid-chain n-alkanes showed variations between -23.5 to -12.6‰. Highest values were observed for the assumed period of maximum macrophyte growth during the late glacial and for the phytoplankton maximum during the middle and late Holocene. Therefore, the enriched values were interpreted to be caused by carbon limitation which in turn was induced by high macrophyte and primary productivity, respectively. Hydrogen isotope signatures of mid-chain n-alkanes have been shown to be able to track a previously deduced episode of reduced moisture availability between ca. 10 and 7 cal ka BP, indicated by a 20‰ shift towards higher δD values. Indications for cooler episodes at 6.0, 3.1 and 1.8 cal ka BP were gained from drops of biomarker concentrations, especially microbial-derived hopanoids, and from coincidental shifts towards lower δ13C values. Those episodes correspond well with cool events reported from other locations on the Tibetan Plateau as well as in the Northern Hemisphere. To conclude, the study of recent sediments and plants improved the understanding of factors affecting the composition and isotopic signatures of aliphatic biomarkers in sediments. Concentrations and isotopic signatures of the biomarkers in Lake Koucha could be interpreted in a palaeolimnological context and contribute to the knowledge about the history of the lake. Aquatic macrophyte-derived mid-chain n-alkanes were especially useful, due to their high abundance in many Tibetan Lakes and their ability to record major changes of lake productivity and palaeo-hydrological conditions. Therefore, they have the potential to contribute to a fuller understanding of past climate variability in this key region for atmospheric circulation systems.
The origin and evolution of granites has been widely studied because granitoid rocks constitute a major portion of the Earth ́s crust. The formation of granitic magma is, besides temperature mainly triggered by the water content of these rocks. The presence of water in magmas plays an important role due to the ability of aqueous fluids to change the chemical composition of the magma. The exsolution of aqueous fluids from melts is closely linked to a fractionation of elements between the two phases. Then, aqueous fluids migrate to shallower parts of the Earth ́s crust because of it ́s lower density compared to that of melts and adjacent rocks. This process separates fluids and melts, and furthermore, during the ascent, aqueous fluids can react with the adjacent rocks and alter their chemical signature. This is particularly impor- tant during the formation of magmatic-hydrothermal ore deposits or in the late stages of the evolution of magmatic complexes. For a deeper insight to these processes, it is essential to improve our knowledge on element behavior in such systems. In particular, trace elements are used for these studies and petrogenetic interpretations because, unlike major elements, they are not essential for the stability of the phases involved and often reflect magmatic processes with less ambiguity. However, for the majority of important trace elements, the dependence of the geochemical behavior on temperature, pressure, and in particular on the composition of the system are only incompletely or not at all experimentally studied. Former studies often fo- cus on the determination of fluid−melt partition coefficients (Df/m=cfluid/cmelt) of economically interesting elements, e.g., Mo, Sn, Cu, and there are some partitioning data available for ele- ments that are also commonly used for petrological interpretations. At present, no systematic experimental data on trace element behavior in fluid−melt systems as function of pressure, temperature, and chemical composition are available. Additionally, almost all existing data are based on the analysis of quenched phases. This results in substantial uncertainties, particularly for the quenched aqueous fluid because trace element concentrations may change upon cooling. The objective of this PhD thesis consisted in the study of fluid−melt partition coefficients between aqueous solutions and granitic melts for different trace elements (Rb, Sr, Ba, La, Y, and Yb) as a function of temperature, pressure, salinity of the fluid, composition of the melt, and experimental and analytical approach. The latter included the refinement of an existing method to measure trace element concentrations in fluids equilibrated with silicate melts di- rectly at elevated pressures and temperatures using a hydrothermal diamond-anvil cell and synchrotron radiation X-ray fluorescence microanalysis. The application of this in-situ method enables to avoid the main source of error in data from quench experiments, i.e., trace element concentration in the fluid. A comparison of the in-situ results to data of conventional quench experiments allows a critical evaluation of quench data from this study and literature data. In detail, starting materials consisted of a suite of trace element doped haplogranitic glasses with ASI varying between 0.8 and 1.4 and H2O or a chloridic solution with m NaCl/KCl=1 and different salinities (1.16 to 3.56 m (NaCl+KCl)). Experiments were performed at 750 to 950◦C and 0.2 or 0.5 GPa using conventional quench devices (externally and internally heated pressure vessels) with different quench rates, and at 750◦C and 0.2 to 1.4 GPa with in-situ analysis of the trace element concentration in the fluids. The fluid−melt partitioning data of all studied trace elements show 1. a preference for the melt (Df/m < 1) at all studied conditions, 2. one to two orders of magnitude higher Df/m using chloridic solutions compared to experiments with H2O, 3. a clear dependence on the melt composition for fluid−melt partitioning of Sr, Ba, La, Y, and Yb in experiments using chloridic solutions, 4. quench rate−related differences of fluid−melt partition coefficients of Rb and Sr, and 5. distinctly higher fluid−melt partitioning data obtained from in-situ experiments than from comparable quench runs, particularly in the case of H2O as starting solution. The data point to a preference of all studied trace elements for the melt even at fairly high salinities, which contrasts with other experimental studies, but is supported by data from studies of natural co-genetically trapped fluid and melt inclusions. The in-situ measurements of trace element concentrations in the fluid verify that aqueous fluids will change their composition upon cooling, which is in particular important for Cl free systems. The distinct differences of the in-situ results to quench data of this study as well as to data from the literature signify the im- portance of a careful fluid sampling and analysis. Therefore, the direct measurement of trace element contents in fluids equilibrated with silicate melts at elevated PT conditions represents an important development to obtain more reliable fluid−melt partition coefficients. For further improvement, both the aqueous fluid and the silicate melt need to be analyzed in-situ because partitioning data that are based on the direct measurement of the trace element content in the fluid and analysis of a quenched melt are still not completely free of quench effects. At present, all available data on element complexation in aqueous fluids in equilibrium with silicate melts at high PT are indirectly derived from partitioning data, which involves in these experiments assumptions on the species present in the fluid. However, the activities of chemical components in these partitioning experiments are not well constrained, which is required for the definition of exchange equilibria between melt and fluid species. For example, the melt-dependent variation of partition coefficient observed for Sr imply that this element can not only be complexed by Cl− as suggested previously. The data indicate a more complicated complexation of Sr in the aqueous fluid. To verify this hypothesis, the in-situ setup was also used to determine strontium complexation in fluids equilibrated with silicate melts at desired PT conditions by the application of X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. First results show a strong effect of both fluid and melt composition on the resulting XANES spectra, which indicates different complexation environments for Sr.
Foreland-basin systems are excellent archives to decipher the feedbacks between surface and tectonic processes in orogens. The sedimentary architecture of a foreland-basin system reflects the balance between tectonic subsidence causing long-term accommodation space and sediment influx corresponding to efficiency of erosion and mass-redistribution processes. In order to explore the effects of climatic and tectonic forcing in such a system, I investigated the Oligo-Miocene foreland-basin sediments of the southern Alborz mountains, an intracontinental orogen in northern Iran, related to the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision. This work includes absolute dating methods such as 40Ar/39Ar and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronology, magnetostratigraphy, sedimentological analysis, sandstone and conglomerate provenance study, carbon and oxygen isotope analysis, and clay mineralogy study. Results show a systematic correlation between coarsening-upward cycles and sediment accumulation rates in the basin on 105 to 106yr time scales. During thrust loading phases, the coarse-grained fraction supplied by the uplifting range is stored in the proximal part of the basin (sedimentary facies retrogradation), while fine-grained sediments are deposited in distal sectors. Variations in sediment provenance during these phases of enhanced tectonic activity give evidence for erosional unroofing phases and/or drainage-reorganization events. In addition, enhanced tectonic activity promoted the growth of topography and associated orographic barrier effects, as demonstrated by sedimentologic indicators and the analysis of stable C and O isotopes from calcareous paleosols and lacustrine/palustrine samples. Extensive progradation of coarse-grained deposits occurs during phases of decreased subsidence, when the coarse-grained fraction supplied by the uplifting range cannot be completely stored in the proximal part of the basin. In this environment, a reduction in basin subsidence is associated with laterally stacked fluvial channel deposits, and is related to intra-foreland uplift, as documented by growth strata, tectonic tilting, and sediment reworking. Increase in sediment accumulation rate associated with progradation of vertically-stacked coarse-grained fluvial channels also occurs. Paleosol O-isotope data shows that this increase is related to wetter climatic phases, suggesting that surface processes are more efficient and exhumation rates increase, giving rise to a positive feedback. Furthermore, isotopic and sedimentologic data show that starting from 10-9 Ma, climate became less arid with an increase in seasonality of precipitation. Because important changes were also recorded in the Mediterranean Sea and Asia at that time, the evidence for climatic variability observed in the Alborz mountains most likely reflects changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. This study has additional implications for the evolution of the Alborz mountains and the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. At the orogenic scale, the locus of deformation did not move steadily southward, but stepped forward and backward since Oligocene time. In particular, from ~ 17.5 to 6.2 Ma the orogen grew by a combination of frontal accretion and wedge-internal deformation on time scales of ca. 0.7 to 2 m.y. Moreover, the provenance data suggest that prior to 10-9 Ma the shortening direction changed from NW-SE to NNE-SSW, in agreement with structural data. On the scale of the entire collision zone, the evolution of the studied basins and adjacent mountain ranges suggests a new geodynamic model for the evolution of the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. Numerous sedimentary basins in the Alborz mountains and in other locations of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone record a change from a tensional (transtensional) to a compressional (transpressional) tectonic setting by ~ 36 Ma. I interpret this to reflect the onset of subduction of the stretched Arabian continental lithosphere beneath central Iran, leading to moderate plate coupling and lower- and upper-plate deformation (soft continental collision). The increase in deformation rates in the southern Alborz mountains from ~ 17.5 Ma suggests that significant upper-plate deformation must have started by the early Miocene most likely in response to an increase in degree of plate coupling. I suggest that this was related to the subduction of thicker Arabian continental lithosphere and the consequent onset of hard continental collision. This model reconciles the apparent lag time of 15-20 m.y between the late Eocene to early Oligocene age for the initial Arabia-Eurasia continental collision and the onset of widespread deformation across the collision zone to the north in early to late Miocene time.
Orthopyroxenes of a high temperature protomylonite of the Ivrea Zone, Northern Italy show twin like polysynthetic lamellae parallel to {210} of the hypersthene host. The transformation is caused by plastic deformation under high metamorphic conditions which has resulted in dynamic recrystallization of pyroxene and plagioclase. The lamellae consist of clinohypersthene. The twin plane and the lamellar clino-orthoinversion of hypersthene due to natural deformation have not been described hitherto.
This study presents noble gas compositions (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe) of lavas from several Hawaiian volcanoes. Lavas from the Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project (HSDP) core, surface samples from Mauna Kea, Mauna Loa, Kilauea, Hualalai, Kohala and Haleakala as well as lavas from a deep well on the summit of Kilauea were investigated. Noble gases, especially helium, are used as tracers for mantle reservoirs, based on the assumption that high 3He/4He ratios (>8 RA) represent material from the deep and supposedly less degassed mantle, whereas lower ratios (~ 8 RA) are thought to represent the upper mantle. Shield stage Mauna Kea, Kohala and Kilauea lavas yielded MORB-like to moderately high 3He/4He ratios, while 3He/4He ratios in post-shield stage Haleakala lavas are MORB-like. Few samples show 20Ne/22Ne and 21Ne/22Ne ratios different from the atmospheric values, however, Mauna Kea and Kilauea lavas with excess in mantle Ne agree well with the Loihi-Kilauea line in a neon three-isotope plot, whereas one Kohala sample plots on the MORB correlation line. The values in the 4He/40Ar* (40Ar* denotes radiogenic Ar) versus 4He diagram imply open system fractionation of He from Ar, with a deficiency in 4He. Calculated 4He/40Ar*, 3He/22Nes (22NeS denotes solar Ne) and 4He/21Ne ratios for the sample suite are lower than the respective production and primordial ratios, supporting the observation of a fractionation of He from the heavier noble gases, with a depletion of He with respect to Ne and Ar. The depletion of He is interpreted to be partly due to solubility controlled gas loss during magma ascent. However, the preferential He loss suggests that He is more incompatible than Ne and Ar during magmatic processes. In a binary mixing model, the isotopic He and Ne pattern are best explained by a mixture of a MORB-like end-member with a plume like or primordial end-member with a fractionation in 3He/22Ne, represented by a curve parameter r of 15 (r=(³He/²²Ne)MORB/(³He/²²Ne)PLUME or PRIMORDIAL). Whether the high 3He/4He ratios in Hawaiian lavas are indicative of a primitive component within the Hawaiian plume or are rather a product of the crystal-melt- partitioning behavior during partial melting remains to be resolved.
Recent years witnessed a vast advent of stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives. The multitude of geochemical and physical proxies and a promise of a precise and accurate age model greatly appeal to palaeoclimatologists. Although substantial progress was made in speleothem-based palaeoclimate research and despite high-resolution records from low-latitudinal regions, proving that palaeo-environmental changes can be archived on sub-annual to millennial time scales our comprehension of climate dynamics is still fragmentary. This is in particular true for the summer monsoon system on the Indian subcontinent. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As this rainfall belt migrates northward during boreal summer, it brings monsoonal rainfall. ISM strength depends however on a variety of factors, including snow cover in Central Asia and oceanic conditions in the Indic and Pacific. Presently, many of the factors influencing the ISM are known, though their exact forcing mechanism and mutual relations remain ambiguous. Attempts to make an accurate prediction of rainfall intensity and frequency and drought recurrence, which is extremely important for South Asian countries, resemble a puzzle game; all interaction need to fall into the right place to obtain a complete picture. My thesis aims to create a faithful picture of climate change in India, covering the last 11,000 ka. NE India represents a key region for the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM, as it is here where the monsoon splits into a northwestward and a northeastward directed arm. The Meghalaya Plateau is the first barrier for northward moving air masses and receives excessive summer rainfall, while the winter season is very dry. The proximity of Meghalaya to the Tibetan Plateau on the one hand and the BoB on the other hand make the study area a key location for investigating the interaction between different forcings that governs the ISM. A basis for the interpretation of palaeoclimate records, and a first important outcome of my thesis is a conceptual model which explains the observed pattern of seasonal changes in stable isotopes (d18O and d2H) in rainfall. I show that although in tropical and subtropical regions the amount effect is commonly called to explain strongly depleted isotope values during enhanced rainfall, alone it cannot account for observed rainwater isotope variability in Meghalaya. Monitoring of rainwater isotopes shows no expected negative correlation between precipitation amount and d18O of rainfall. In turn I find evidence that the runoff from high elevations carries an inherited isotopic signature into the BoB, where during the ISM season the freshwater builds a strongly depleted plume on top of the marine water. The vapor originating from this plume is likely to memorize' and transmit further very negative d18O values. The lack of data does not allow for quantication of this plume effect' on isotopes in rainfall over Meghalaya but I suggest that it varies on seasonal to millennial timescales, depending on the runoff amount and source characteristics. The focal point of my thesis is the extraction of climatic signals archived in stalagmites from NE India. High uranium concentration in the stalagmites ensured excellent age control required for successful high-resolution climate reconstructions. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and grey-scale data allow unprecedented insights into millennial to seasonal dynamics of the summer and winter monsoon in NE India. ISM strength (i. e. rainfall amount) is recorded in changes in d18Ostalagmites. The d13C signal, reflecting drip rate changes, renders a powerful proxy for dry season conditions, and shows similarities to temperature-related changes on the Tibetan Plateau. A sub-annual grey-scale profile supports a concept of lower drip rate and slower stalagmite growth during dry conditions. During the Holocene, ISM followed a millennial-scale decrease of insolation, with decadal to centennial failures resulting from atmospheric changes. The period of maximum rainfall and enhanced seasonality corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Optimum observed in Europe. After a phase of rather stable conditions, 4.5 kyr ago, the strengthening ENSO system dominated the ISM. Strong El Nino events weakened the ISM, especially when in concert with positive Indian Ocean dipole events. The strongest droughts of the last 11 kyr are recorded during the past 2 kyr. Using the advantage of a well-dated stalagmite record at hand I tested the application of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to detect sub-annual to sub-decadal changes in element concentrations in stalagmites. The development of a large ablation cell allows for ablating sample slabs of up to 22 cm total length. Each analyzed element is a potential proxy for different climatic parameters. Combining my previous results with the LAICP- MS-generated data shows that element concentration depends not only on rainfall amount and associated leaching from the soil. Additional factors, like biological activity and hydrogeochemical conditions in the soil and vadose zone can eventually affect the element content in drip water and in stalagmites. I present a theoretical conceptual model for my study site to explain how climatic signals can be transmitted and archived in stalagmite carbonate. Further, I establish a first 1500 year long element record, reconstructing rainfall variability. Additionally, I hypothesize that volcanic eruptions, producing large amounts of sulfuric acid, can influence soil acidity and hence element mobilization.
Active continental margins are affected by complex feedbacks between tectonic, climate and surface processes, the intricate relations of which are still a matter of discussion. The Chilean convergent margin, forming the outstanding Andean subduction orogen, constitutes an ideal natural laboratory for the investigation of climate, tectonics and their interactions. In order to study both processes, I examined marine and lacustrine sediments from different depositional environments on- and offshore the south-central Chilean coast (38-40°S). I combined sedimentological, geochemical and isotopical analyses to identify climatic and tectonic signals within the sedimentary records. The investigation of marine trench sediments (ODP Site 1232, SONNE core 50SL) focused on frequency changes of turbiditic event layers since the late Pleistocene. In the active margin setting of south-central Chile, these layers were considered to reflect periodically occurring earthquakes and to constitute an archive of the regional paleoseismicity. The new results indicate glacial-interglacial changes in turbidite frequencies during the last 140 kyr, with short recurrence times (~200 years) during glacial and long recurrence times (~1000 years) during interglacial periods. Hence, the generation of turbidites appears to be strongly influenced by climate and sea level changes, which control on the amount of sediment delivered to the shelf edge and therewith the stability of the continental slope: more stable slope conditions during interglacial periods entail lower turbidite frequencies than in glacial periods. Since glacial turbidite recurrence times are congruent with earthquake recurrence times derived from the historical record and other paleoseismic archives of the region, I concluded that only during cold stages the sediment availability and slope instability enabled the complete series of large earthquakes to be recorded. The sediment transport to the shelf region is not only driven by climate conditions but also influenced by local forearc tectonics. Accelerating uplift rates along major tectonic structures involved drainage anomalies and river flow inversions, which seriously altered the sediment supply to the Pacific Ocean. Two examples for the tectonic hindrance of fluvial systems are the coastal lakes Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu. Both lakes developed within former river valleys, which once discharged towards the Pacific and were dammed by tectonically uplifted sills at ~8000 yr BP. Analyses of sediment cores from the lakes showed similar successions of marine/brackish deposits at the bottom, covered by lacustrine sediments on top. Dating of the transitions between these different units and the comparison with global sea level curves allowed me to calculate local Holocene uplift rates, which are distinctly higher for the upraised sills (Lanalhue: 8.83 ± 2.7 mm/yr, Lleu Lleu: 11.36 ± 1.77 mm/yr) than for the lake basins (Lanalhue: 0.42 ± 0.71 mm/yr, Lleu Lleu: 0.49 ± 0.44 mm/yr). I hence considered the sills to be the surface expression of a blind thrust associated with a prominent inverse fault that is controlling regional uplift and folding. After the final separation of Lago Lanalhue and Lago Lleu Lleu from the Pacific, a constant deposition of lacustrine sediments preserved continuous records of local environmental changes. Sequences from both lakes indicate a long-term climate trend with a significant shift from more arid conditions during the Mid-Holocene (8000 – 4200 cal yr BP) to more humid conditions during the Late Holocene (4200 cal yr BP – present). This trend is consistent with other regional paleoclimatic data and interpreted to reflect changes in the strength/position of the Southern Westerly Winds. Since ~5000 years, sediments of Lago Lleu Lleu are marked by numerous intercalated detrital layers that recur with a mean frequency of ~210 years. Deposition of these layers may be triggered by local tectonics (i.e. earthquakes), but may also originate from changes in the local climate (e.g. onset of modern ENSO conditions). During the last 2000 years, pronounced variations in the terrigenous sediment supply to both lakes suggest important hydrological changes on the centennial time-scale as well. A lower input of terrigenous matter points to less humid phases between 200 cal yr B.C. - 150 cal yr A.D., 900 - 1350 cal yr A.D. and 1850 cal yr A.D. to present (broadly corresponding to the Roman, Medieval, and Modern Warm Periods). More humid periods persisted from 150 - 900 cal yr A.D. and 1350 - 1850 cal yr A.D. (broadly corresponding to the Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age). In conclusion, the combined investigation of marine and lacustrine sediments is a feasible method for the reconstruction of climatic and tectonic processes on different time scales. My approach allows exploring both climate and tectonics in one and the same archive, and is largely transferable to other active margins worldwide.
Submarine landslides can generate local tsunamis posing a hazard to human lives and coastal facilities. Two major related problems are: (i) quantitative estimation of tsunami hazard and (ii) early detection of the most dangerous landslides. This thesis focuses on both those issues by providing numerical modeling of landslide-induced tsunamis and by suggesting and justifying a new method for fast detection of tsunamigenic landslides by means of tiltmeters. Due to the proximity to the Sunda subduction zone, Indonesian coasts are prone to earthquake, but also landslide tsunamis. The aim of the GITEWS-project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is to provide fast and reliable tsunami warnings, but also to deepen the knowledge about tsunami hazards. New bathymetric data at the Sunda Arc provide the opportunity to evaluate the hazard potential of landslide tsunamis for the adjacent Indonesian islands. I present nine large mass movements in proximity to Sumatra, Java, Sumbawa and Sumba, whereof the largest event displaced 20 km³ of sediments. Using numerical modeling, I compute the generated tsunami of each event, its propagation and runup at the coast. Moreover, I investigate the age of the largest slope failures by relating them to the Great 1977 Sumba earthquake. Continental slopes off northwest Europe are well known for their history of huge underwater landslides. The current geological situation west of Spitsbergen is comparable to the continental margin off Norway after the last glaciation, when the large tsunamigenic Storegga slide took place. The influence of Arctic warming on the stability of the Svalbard glacial margin is discussed. Based on new geophysical data, I present four possible landslide scenarios and compute the generated tsunamis. Waves of 6 m height would be capable of reaching northwest Europe threatening coastal areas. I present a novel technique to detect large submarine landslides using an array of tiltmeters, as a possible tool in future tsunami early warning systems. The dislocation of a large amount of sediment during a landslide produces a permanent elastic response of the earth. I analyze this response with a mathematical model and calculate the theoretical tilt signal. Applications to the hypothetical Spitsbergen event and the historical Storegga slide show tilt signals exceeding 1000 nrad. The amplitude of landslide tsunamis is controlled by the product of slide volume and maximal velocity (slide tsunamigenic potential). I introduce an inversion routine that provides slide location and tsunamigenic potential, based on tiltmeter measurements. The accuracy of the inversion and of the estimated tsunami height near the coast depends on the noise level of tiltmeter measurements, the distance of tiltmeters from the slide, and the slide tsunamigenic potential. Finally, I estimate the applicability scope of this method by employing it to known landslide events worldwide.
The complex system of strike-slip and thrust faults in the Alborz Mountains, Northern Iran, are not well understood yet. Mainly structural and geomorphic data are available so far. As a more extensive base for seismotectonic studies and seismic hazard analysis we plan to do a comprehensive seismic moment tensor study also from smaller magnitudes (M < 4.5) by developing a new algorithm. Here, we present first preliminary results.
It has always been enigmatic which processes control the accretion of the North American terranes towards the Pacific plate and the landward migration of the San Andreas plate boundary. One of the theories suggests that the Pacific plate first cools and captures the uprising mantle in the slab window, and then it causes the accretion of the continental crustal blocks. The alternative theory attributes the accretion to the capture of Farallon plate fragments (microplates) stalled in the ceased Farallon-North America subduction zone. Quantitative judgement between these two end-member concepts requires a 3D thermomechanical numerical modeling. However, the software tool required for such modeling is not available at present in the geodynamic modeling community. The major aim of the presented work is comprised basically of two interconnected tasks. The first task is the development and testing of the research Finite Element code with sufficiently advanced facilities to perform the three-dimensional geological time scale simulations of lithospheric deformation. The second task consists in the application of the developed tool to the Neogene deformations of the crust and the mantle along the San Andreas Fault System in Central and northern California. The geological time scale modeling of lithospheric deformation poses numerous conceptual and implementation challenges for the software tools. Among them is the necessity to handle the brittle-ductile transition within the single computational domain, adequately represent the rock rheology in a broad range of temperatures and stresses, and resolve the extreme deformations of the free surface and internal boundaries. In the framework of this thesis the new Finite Element code (SLIM3D) has been successfully developed and tested. This code includes a coupled thermo-mechanical treatment of deformation processes and allows for an elasto-visco-plastic rheology with diffusion, dislocation and Peierls creep mechanisms and Mohr-Coulomb plasticity. The code incorporates an Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian formulation with free surface and Winkler boundary conditions. The modeling technique developed is used to study the aspects influencing the Neogene lithospheric deformation in central and northern California. The model setup is focused on the interaction between three major tectonic elements in the region: the North America plate, the Pacific plate and the Gorda plate, which join together near the Mendocino Triple Junction. Among the modeled effects is the influence of asthenosphere upwelling in the opening slab window on the overlying North American plate. The models also incorporate the captured microplate remnants in the fossil Farallon subduction zone, simplified subducting Gorda slab, and prominent crustal heterogeneity such as the Salinian block. The results show that heating of the mantle roots beneath the older fault zones and the transpression related to fault stepping, altogether, render cooling in the slab window alone incapable to explain eastward migration of the plate boundary. From the viewpoint of the thermomechanical modeling, the results confirm the geological concept, which assumes that a series of microplate capture events has been the primary reason of the inland migration of the San Andreas plate boundary over the recent 20 Ma. The remnants of the Farallon slab, stalled in the fossil subduction zone, create much stronger heterogeneity in the mantle than the cooling of the uprising asthenosphere, providing the more efficient and direct way for transferring the North American terranes to Pacific plate. The models demonstrate that a high effective friction coefficient on major faults fails to predict the distinct zones of strain localization in the brittle crust. The magnitude of friction coefficient inferred from the modeling is about 0.075, which is far less than typical values 0.6 – 0.8 obtained by variety of borehole stress measurements and laboratory data. Therefore, the model results presented in this thesis provide additional independent constrain which supports the “weak-fault” hypothesis in the long-term ongoing debate over the strength of major faults in the SAFS.
This thesis presents investigations on sediments from two African lakes which have been recording changes in their surrounding environmental and climate conditions since more than 200,000 years. Focus of this work is the time of the last Glacial and the Holocene (the last ~100,000 years before present [in the following 100 kyr BP]). One important precondition for this kind of research is a good understanding of the present ecosystems in and around the lakes and of the sediment formation under modern climate conditions. Both studies therefore include investigations on the modern environment (including organisms, soils, rocks, lake water and sediments). A 90 m long sediment sequence was investigated from Lake Tswaing (north-eastern South Africa) using geochemical analyses. These investigations document alternating periods of high detrital input and low (especially autochthonous) organic matter content and periods of low detrital input, carbonatic or evaporitic sedimentation and high autochthonous organic matter content. These alternations are interpreted as changes between relatively humid and arid conditions, respectively. Before c. 75 kyr BP, they seem to follow changes in local insolation whereas afterwards they appear to be acyclic and are probably caused by changes in ocean circulation and/or in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Today, these factors have main influence on precipitation in this area where rainfall occurs almost exclusively during austral summer. All modern organisms were analysed for their biomarker and bulk organic and compound-specific stable carbon isotope composition. The same investigations on sediments from the modern lake floor document the mixed input of the investigated individual organisms and reveal additional influences by methanotrophic bacteria. A comparison of modern sediment characteristics with those of sediments covering the time 14 to 2 kyr BP shows changes in the productivity of the lake and the surrounding vegetation which are best explained by changes in hydrology. More humid conditions are indicated for times older than 10 kyr BP and younger than 7.5 kyr BP, whereas arid conditions prevailed in between. These observations agree with the results from sediment composition and indications from other climate archives nearby. The second lake study deals with Lake Challa, a small, deep crater lake on the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro. In this lake form mm-scale laminated sediments which were analyses with micro-XRF scanning for changes in the element composition. By comparing these results with investigations on thin sections, results from ongoing sediment trap studies, meteorological data, and investigations on the surrounding rocks and soils, I develop a model for seasonal variability in the limnology and sedimentation of Lake Challa. The lake appears to be stratified during the warm rain seasons (October – December and March – May) during which detrital material is delivered to the lake and carbonates precipitate. On the lake floor forms a dark lamina with high contents of Fe and Ti and high Ca/Al and low Mn/Fe ratios. Diatoms bloom during the cool and windy season (June – September) when mixing down to c. 60 m depth provides easily bio-available nutrients. Contemporaneously, Fe and Mn-oxides are precipitating which cause high Mn/Fe ratios in the light diatom-rich laminae of the sediments. Trends in the Mn/Fe ratio of the sediments are interpreted to reflect changes in the intensity or duration of seasonal mixing in Lake Challa. This interpretation is supported by parallel changes in the organic matter and biogenic silica content observed in the 22 m long profile recovered from Lake Challa. This covers the time of the last 25 kyr BP. It documents a transition around 16 kyr BP from relatively well-mixed conditions with high detrital input during glacial times to stronger stratified conditions which are probably related to increasing lake levels in Challa and generally more humid conditions in East Africa. Intensified mixing is recorded for the time of the Younger Dryas and the period between 11.4 and 10.7 kyr BP. For these periods, reduced intensity of the SW monsoon and intensified NE monsoon are reported from archives of the Indian-Asian Monsoon region, arguing for the latter as a probable source for wind mixing in Lake Challa. This connection is probably also responsible for contemporaneous events in the Mn/Fe ratios of the Lake Challa sediments and in other records of northern hemisphere monsoon intensity during the Holocene and underlines the close interaction of global low latitude atmospheric circulation.
The Earth’s magnetic field (EMF) is generated by convections in the electrically conducting liquid iron-rich outer core, modified by the Earth’s rotation. A drastic manifestation of the dynamics of this fluid body is the occurrence of geomagnetic field reversals in the Earth’s history but also geomagnetic excursions, which are more frequent features of otherwise stable polarity chrons, but often poorly constrained in the geological record. To better understand the origin of the field, we need to know how the field has varied on different geological timescales. This includes not only information about changes in the ancient field’s direction but also about the absolute intensity (palaeointensity) and the age. This palaeointensity record is needed for compiling a full-vector description of the field. A palaeomagnetic and palaeointensity study on lava flows allows gaining insights about the evolution of the EMF through time and space. However, constraining the EMF evolution over different geological timescales remains a difficult objective due to the paucity of available palaeointensity data. One new alternative approach in palaeointensity studies is the recently proposed multispecimen parallel differential pTRM (MS) method, which has potentially several advantages over the commonly used Thellier method, because it is in theory independent of magnetic domain state, less prone to biasing effects, such as thermal alteration and significantly faster to perform in the laboratory. A study of highly active volcanic regions, such as the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, seems promising when attempting a full-vector reconstruction or when looking for field excursions. One aim of this thesis was to gain new information about the occurrence and global validity of geomagnetic excursions from the Brunhes- or Matuyama Chron. For this purpose some 75 lava flows from within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt were sampled for palaeomagnetic analyses. The scatter of virtual geomagnetic poles from lavas younger than 1.7 Ma was used for estimating palaeosecular variation and was found to be consistent with latitude dependent Model G and other high quality palaeomagnetic data from Mexico. The palaeomagnetic mean-vectors of 56 lavas were correlated to the Geomagnetic Polarity Timescale supplemented with information on geomagnetic excursions. On the grounds of their associated radioisotopic ages, four lavas were tentatively correlated with known excursions from marine records. Two lava flows dating of Brunhes Chron were associated with the Big Lost and Delts/Stage 17 excursions, respectively. From further two flows dating of Matuyama Chron, one flow was associated with either the Santa Rosa- or Kamikatsura excursions, while the other could have been emplaced during the Gilsa excursion. The most significant outcome was the finding that both Brunhes excursional flows display nearly fully reversed directions that deviate almost 180°C from the expected normal polarity direction. This observation could indicate that in particular the Big Lost and Delta/Stage17 excursions may represent other short periods during which the field completed a full reversal for a short time, such as was previously found for other older cryptochrons or tiny wiggles. Another focus of this thesis was set on estimating the feasibility of the new MS method for routine palaeointensity determination. This was accomplished by applying the MS method to samples from 11 historical lava flows from Mexico and Iceland from which the actual field intensity was either known from contemporary observatory data, or deduced from magnetic field models. Comparing observed with expected intensity values allowed to test the accuracy of the MS method. It a was found that the majority of palaeointensity estimates after the MS method yielded results that were very close or indistinguishable within the range of uncertainty from the expected values. However, a general trend towards an overestimate in the palaeointensity was also observed, which, on the grounds of corroborating rock magnetic analyses, was associated with multidomain material. This observation was taken as first evidence that the MS method is not entirely independent of magnetic domain state, as was originally claimed. However, a second experiment in which a modification of the most widely used Thellier method was applied to sister samples from 5 Icelandic flows revealed that, in comparison to the MS method, the latter produced more accurate and statistically better defined palaeointensities. Thus, from these first results, the MS method appeared as a viable alternative for future palaeointensity studies. Subsequently it was attempted to corroborate the directional record from Mexican lavas with palaeointensity data. It was possible to acquire palaeointensity estimates for 32 out of 51 investigated lava flows. These new results revealed that the new MS palaeointensities for Mexico are, with a high degree of statistical significance, around 30% higher than expected. The generally high palaeointensities seem to corroborate the results obtained from historical lava flows in this study and other previous studies on synthetic samples where domain state effects were found to cause overestimates in the palaeointensity of up to 30 per cent in the MS method. The primary process that leads to this overestimate is assigned to an asymmetry in the demagnetisation and remagnetisation process. Yet, this overestimate is expected to be no larger than what might be expected from Thellier experiments performed on samples with a given degree of multidomain behaviour.
Modern anthropogenic forcing of atmospheric chemistry poses the question of how the Earth System will respond as thousands of gigatons of greenhouse gas are rapidly added to the atmosphere. A similar, albeit nonanthropogenic, situation occurred during the early Paleogene, when catastrophic release of carbon to the atmosphere triggered abrupt increase in global temperatures. The best documented of these events is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) when the magnitude of carbon addition to the oceans and atmosphere was similar to those expected for the future. This event initiated global warming, changes in hydrological cycles, biotic extinction and migrations. A recently proposed hypothesis concerning changes in marine ecosystems suggests that this global warming strongly influenced the shallow-water biosphere, triggering extinctions and turnover in the Larger Foraminifera (LF) community and the demise of corals. The successions from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform (SW Slovenia) represent an ideal location to test the hypothesis of a possible causal link between the PETM and evolution of shallow-water organisms because they record continuous sedimentation from the Late Paleocene to the Early Eocene and are characterized by a rich biota, especially LF, fundamental for detailed biostratigraphic studies. In order to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions during deposition, I focused on sedimentological analysis and paleoecological study of benthic assemblages. During the Late Paleocene-earliest Eocene, sedimentation occurred on a shallow-water carbonate ramp system characterized by enhanced nutrient levels. LF represent the common constituent of the benthic assemblages that thrived in this setting throughout the Late Paleocene to the Early Eocene. With detailed biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic analyses documenting the most complete record to date available for the PETM event in a shallow-water marine environment, I correlated chemostratigraphically for the first time the evolution of LF with the δ¹³C curves. This correlation demonstrated that no major turnover in the LF communities occurred synchronous with the PETM; thus the evolution of LF was mainly controlled by endogenous biotic forces. The study of Late Thanetian metric-sized microbialite-coral mounds which developed in the middle part of the ramp, documented the first Cenozoic occurrence of microbially-cemented mounds. The development of these mounds, with temporary dominance of microbial communities over corals, suggest environmentally-triggered “phase shifts” related to frequent fluctuations of nutrient/turbidity levels during recurrent wet phases which preceding the extreme greenhouse conditions of the PETM. The paleoecological study of the coral community in the microbialites-coral mounds, the study of corals from Early Eocene platform from SW France, and a critical, extensive literature research of Late Paleocene – Early Eocene coral occurrences from the Tethys, the Atlantic, the Caribbean realms suggested that these corals types, even if not forming extensive reefs, are common in the biofacies as small isolated colonies, piles of rubble or small patch-reefs. These corals might have developed ‘alternative’ life strategies to cope with harsh conditions (high/fluctuating nutrients/turbidity, extreme temperatures, perturbation of aragonite saturation state) during the greenhouse times of the early Paleogene, representing a good fossil analogue to modern corals thriving close to their thresholds for survival. These results demonstrate the complexity of the biological responses to extreme conditions, not only in terms of temperature but also nutrient supply, physical disturbance and their temporal variability and oscillating character.
This study investigated the warm-temperate to tropical shallow-water Miocene carbonates of the Perfugas basin (Anglona area), northern Sardinia, Italy (Central Mediterranean). The aim of this study was to identify and document the existence and significance of early diagenesis in this carbonate system, especially the diagenetic history, which reflects the diagenetic potential in terms of skeletal mineralogy. The motivation behind the present study was to investigate the role that early cementation has over facies stabilization linked to differences in biotic associations in shallow-water settings. Principal to this was to unravel the amount, kind and distribution of early cements in this type of carbonates, in order to complement previous studies, and hence acquire a more global perspective on non-tropical carbonate settings. The shallow-buried Sedini Limestone Unit was investigated for variations on early diagenetic features, as well as for the type of biotic association, and oxygen and carbon stable isotope stratigraphy. Results showed, that particularly at the Perfugas basin (< 15 km2), which evolves in time from a ramp into a steep-flanked platform, shallow-water facies are characterized by a “transitional” type of biotic association. The biotic assemblages change gradually over time from a heterozoan-rich into a photozoan-rich depositional system. This transition implies a change in the depositional environmental control factors such as temperature. It is considered that sedimentation took place under warm-temperate waters, which shifted to more warmer or tropical waters through time. Moreover, it was noticed that along with these changes, marine early syn-depositional cements (high-Mg calcite), with particular fabrics (e.g. fibrous), gradually contributed to the early lithification of rocks, favoring a steepening of the platform relief. The major controls for the shift of the depositional geometry was triggered by the change of the type of biotic associations (carbonate factory), related with the shift towards warmer conditions, and the development of early marine cementation. The identification of the amount and distribution of different cement phases, porosities and early diagenetic features, within facies and stratigraphy, showed that diagenesis is differential along depth, and within the depositional setting. High-Mg calcite cements (micrite, fibrous and syntaxial inclusion-rich) are early syn-depositional, facies-related (shallow-water), predominant at the platform phase, and marine in origin. Low-Mg calcite cements (bladed, syntaxial inclusionpoor and blocky) are early to late post-depositional, non-facies related (shallow- to deep-water) and shallow-burial marine in origin. However, a particular difference exists when looking at the amount and distribution of low-Mg calcite bladed cements. They become richer in shallow-water facies at the platform phase, suggesting that the enrichment of bladed cementation is linked to the appearance of metastable grains (e.g. aragonite). In both depositional profiles, the development of secondary porosity is the product of fabric-selective dissolution of grains (aragonite, high-Mg calcite) and/or cements (syntaxial inclusion-rich). However, stratigraphy and stable isotopes (oxygen and carbon), indicate that the molds found at shallower facies located beneath, and close to stratigraphic boundaries, have been produced by the infiltration of meteoric-derived water, which caused recrystallization without calcite cementation. Away from these stratigraphic locations, shallow- and deep-water facies show molds, and recrystallization, as well as low-Mg calcite cementation, interpreted as occurring during burial of these sediments by marine waters. The main cement source is suggested to be aragonite. Our results indicate that the Sedini Limestone Unit was transformed in three different diagenetic environments (marine, meteoric and shallow-burial marine); however, the degree of transformation in each diagenetic environment differs in the heterozoan-dominated ramp from the photozoan-dominated platform. It is suggested that the sediments from the ramp follow a diagenetic pathway similar to their heterozoan counterparts (i.e. lack of marine cementation, and loss of primary porosity by compaction), and the sediments from the platform follow a diagenetic pathway similar to their photozoan counterparts (i.e. marine cementation occluding primary porosity). However, in this carbonate setting, cements are Mg-calcite, no meteoric cementation was produced, and secondary porosity at shallow-water facies of the platform phase is mostly open and preserved. Despite the temporal and transitional change in biotic associations, ramp and platform facies (shallow- to deep-water facies) showed an oxygen isotope record overprinted by diagenesis. Oxygen primary marine signatures were not found. It is believed that burial diagenesis (recrystallization and low-Mg calcite cementation) was the main reason. This was unexpected at the ramp, since heterozoan-rich carbonates can hold isotope values close to primary marine signals due to their low-Mg calcite original composition. Ramp and platform facies (shallow- to deep-water facies) showed a carbon isotope record that was less affected by diagenesis. However, only at deep-water facies, did the carbon record show positive values comparable with carbon primary marine signals. The positive carbon values were noticed with major frequency at the platform deep-water facies. Moreover, these values usually showed a covariant trend with the oxygen isotope record; even that the latter did not hold positive values. The main conclusion of this work is that carbonates, deposited under warm-temperate to tropical conditions, have a unique facies, diagenesis and chemostratigraphic expression, which is different from their cool-water heterozoan or warm-water photozoan counterparts, reflecting the “transitional” nature of biotic association.
Modern acquisition of seismic data on receiver networks worldwide produces an increasing amount of continuous wavefield recordings. Hence, in addition to manual data inspection, seismogram interpretation requires new processing utilities for event detection, signal classification and data visualization. Various machine learning algorithms, which can be adapted to seismological problems, have been suggested in the field of pattern recognition. This can be done either by means of supervised learning using manually defined training data or by unsupervised clustering and visualization. The latter allows the recognition of wavefield patterns, such as short-term transients and long-term variations, with a minimum of domain knowledge. Besides classical earthquake seismology, investigations of temporal patterns in seismic data also concern novel approaches such as noise cross-correlation or ambient seismic vibration analysis in general, which have moved into focus within the last decade. In order to find records suitable for the respective approach or simply for quality control, unsupervised preprocessing becomes important and valuable for large data sets. Machine learning techniques require the parametrization of the data using feature vectors. Applied to seismic recordings, wavefield properties have to be computed from the raw seismograms. For an unsupervised approach, all potential wavefield features have to be considered to reduce subjectivity to a minimum. Furthermore, automatic dimensionality reduction, i.e. feature selection, is required in order to decrease computational cost, enhance interpretability and improve discriminative power. This study presents an unsupervised feature selection and learning approach for the discovery, imaging and interpretation of significant temporal patterns in seismic single-station or network recordings. In particular, techniques permitting an intuitive, quickly interpretable and concise overview of available records are suggested. For this purpose, the data is parametrized by real-valued feature vectors for short time windows using standard seismic analysis tools as feature generation methods, such as frequency-wavenumber, polarization, and spectral analysis. The choice of the time window length is dependent on the expected durations of patterns to be recognized or discriminated. We use Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) for a data-driven feature selection, visualization and clustering procedure, which is particularly suitable for high-dimensional data sets. Using synthetics composed of Rayleigh and Love waves and three different types of real-world data sets, we show the robustness and reliability of our unsupervised learning approach with respect to the effect of algorithm parameters and data set properties. Furthermore, we approve the capability of the clustering and imaging techniques. For all data, we find improved discriminative power of our feature selection procedure compared to feature subsets manually selected from individual wavefield parametrization methods. In particular, enhanced performance is observed compared to the most favorable individual feature generation method, which is found to be the frequency spectrum. The method is applied to regional earthquake records at the European Broadband Network with the aim to define suitable features for earthquake detection and seismic phase classification. For the latter, we find that a combination of spectral and polarization features favor S wave detection at a single receiver. However, SOM-based visualization of phase discrimination shows that clustering applied to the records of two stations only allows onset or P wave detection, respectively. In order to improve the discrimination of S waves on receiver networks, we recommend to consider additionally the temporal context of feature vectors. The application to continuous recordings of seismicity close to an active volcano (Mount Merapi, Java, Indonesia) shows that two typical volcano-seismic events (VTB and Guguran) can be detected and distinguished by clustering. In contrast, so-called MP events cannot be discriminated. Comparable results are obtained for selected features and recognition rates regarding a previously implemented supervised classification system. Finally, we test the reliability of wavefield clustering to improve common ambient vibration analysis methods such as estimation of dispersion curves and horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. It is found, that in general, the identified short- and long-term patterns have no significant impact on those estimates. However, for individual sites, effects of local sources can be identified. Leaving out the corresponding clusters, yields reduced uncertainties or allows for improving estimation of dispersion curves.
The modern foreland basin straddling the eastern margin of the Andean orogen is the prime example of a retro-arc foreland basin system adjacent to a subduction orogen. While widely studied in the central and southern Andes, the spatial and temporal evolution of the Cenozoic foreland basin system in the northern Andes has received considerably less attention. This is in part due to the complex geodynamic boundary conditions, such as the oblique subduction and accretion of the Caribbean plates to the already complex interaction between the Nazca and the South American plates. In the Colombian Andes, for example, a foreland basin system has been forming since ~80 Ma over an area previously affected by rift tectonics during the Mesozoic. This setting of Cenozoic contractile deformation superposed on continental crust pre-strained by extensional processes thus represents a natural, yet poorly studied experimental set-up, where the role of tectonic inheritance on the development of foreland basin systems can be evaluated. However, a detailed documentation of the early foreland basin evolution in this part of the Andes has thus far only been accomplished in the more internal sectors of the orogen. In this study, I integrate new structural, sedimentological and biostratigraphic data with low-temperature thermochronology from the eastern sector of the Colombian Andes, in order to provide the first comprehensive account of mountain building and related foreland basin sedimentation in this part of the orogen, and to assess as to what extent pre-existent basement anisotropies have conditioned the locus of foreland deformation in space and time. In the Medina Basin, along the eastern flank of the Eastern Cordillera, I integrated detailed structural mapping and new sedimentological data with a new chronostratigraphic framework based on detailed palynology that links an eastward-thinning early Oligocene to early Miocene syntectonic wedge containing rapid facies changes with an episode of fast tectonic subsidence starting at ~30 Ma. This record represents the first evidence of topographic loading generated by slip along the principal basement-bounding thrusts in the Eastern Cordillera to the west of the basin and thus constrains the onset of mountain building in this area. A comprehensive assessment of exhumation patterns based on zircon fission-track (ZFT), apatite fission-track (AFT) analysis and thermal modelling reveals the location of these thrust loads to have been located along the contractionally reactivated Soapaga Fault in the axial sector of the Eastern Cordillera. Farther to the east, AFT and ZFT data also document the onset of thrust-induced exhumation associated with contractional reactivation of the main range-bounding Servita Fault at ~20 Ma. Associated with this episode of orogenic growth, peak burial temperature estimates based on vitrinite reflectance data in the Cenozoic sedimentary record of the adjacent Medina Basin documents earlier incorporation of the western sector of the basin into the advancing fold and thrust belt. I combined these new thermochronological data with published AFT analyses and known chronologic indicators of brittle deformation in order to evaluate the patterns of orogenic-front migration in the Andes of central Colombia. This spatiotemporal analysis of deformation reveals an episodic pattern of eastward migration of the orogenic front at an average rate of 2.5-2.7 mm/yr during the Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic. I identified three major stages of orogen propagation. First, following initiation of mountain building in the Central Cordillera during the Late Cretaceous, the orogenic front propagate eastward at slow rates (0.5-3.1 mm/yr) until early Eocene times. Such slow orogenic advance would have resulted from limited accretionary flux related to slow and oblique (SW-NE-oriented) convergence of the Farallon and South American plates during that time. A second stage of rapid orogenic advance (4.0-18.0 mm/yr) during the middle-late Eocene, and locally of at least 100 mm/yr in the middle Eocene, resulted from initial tectonic inversion of the Eastern Cordillera. I correlate this episode of rapid orogen-front migration with an increase in the accretionary flux triggered by acceleration in convergence and a rotation of the convergence vector to a more orogen-perpendicular direction. Finally, stagnation of the Miocene deformation front along former rift-bounding reactivated faults in the eastern flank of the Eastern Cordillera led to a decrease in the rates of orogenic advance. Post-late Miocene-Pliocene thrusting along the actively deforming front of the Eastern Cordillera at this latitude suggests averaged Miocene-Holocene orogen propagation rates of 1.2-2.1 mm/yr. In addition, ZFT data suggest that exhumation along the eastern flank of the orogen occurred at moderate rates of ~0.3 mm/yr during the Miocene, prior to an acceleration of exhumation since the Pliocene, as suggested by recently published AFT data. In order to evaluate the relations between thrust loading and sedimentary facies evolution in the foreland, I analyzed gravel progradation in the foreland basin system. In particular, I compared one-dimensional Eocene to Pliocene sediment accumulation rates in the Medina basin with a three-dimensional sedimentary budget based on the interpretation of ~1800 km of industry-style seismic reflection profiles and borehole data tied to the new chronostratigraphic framework. The sedimentological data from the Medina Basin reveal rapid accumulation of fluvial and lacustrine sediments at rates of up to ~ 0.5 mm/yr during the Miocene. Provenance data based on gravel petrography and paleocurrents reveal that these Miocene fluvial systems were sourced by Upper Cretaceous and Paleocene sedimentary units exposed to the west, in the Eastern Cordillera. Peak sediment-accumulation rates in the upper Carbonera Formation and the Guayabo Group occur during episodes of gravel progradation in the proximal foredeep in the Early and Late Miocene. I interpreted this positive correlation between sediment accumulation and gravel deposition as the direct consequence of thrust activity in the Servita-Lengupá Fault. This contrasts with current models relating gravel progradation to episodes of tectonic quiescence in more distal portions of foreland basin systems and calls for a re-evaluation of tectonic history interpretations inferred from sedimentary units in other mountain belts. In summary, my results document a late Eocene-early Miocene eastward advance of the topographic loads associated with the leading edge of deformation in the northern Andes of Colombia. Crustal thickening of the Eastern Cordillera associated with initiation of thrusting along the Servitá Fault illustrates that this sector of the Andean orogen acquired ~90% of its present width already by the early Miocene (~20 Ma). My data thus demonstrate that inherited crustal anisotropies, such as the former rift-bounding faults of the Eastern Cordillera, favour a non-systematic progression of foreland basin deformation through time by preferentially concentrating accommodation of slip and thrust-loading. These new chronology of exhumation and deformation associated with specific structures in the Colombian Andes also constitutes an important advance towards the understanding of models for hydrocarbon maturation, migration and trap formation along the prolific petroleum province of the Llanos Basin in the modern foredeep area.
We study the rupture propagation of the 2008/05/12 Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake. We apply array techniques such as semblance vespagram analysis to P waves recorded at seismic broadband station within 30-100° epicentral distance. By combination of multiple large aperture station groups spatial and temporal resolution is enhanced and problems due source directivity and source mechanism are avoided. We find that seismic energy was released for at least 110 s. Propagating unilaterally at sub-shear rupture velocity of about 2.5 km/s in NE direction, the earthquake reaches a lateral extent of more than 300 km. Whereas high semblance during within 70 s from rupture start indicates simple propagation more complex source processes are indicated thereafter by decreases coherency in seismograms. At this stage of the event coherency is low but significantly above noise level. We emphasize that first result of our computations where obtain within 30 minutes after source time by using an atomized algorithm. This procedure has been routinely and globally applied to major earthquakes. Results are made public through internet.
The most recent intense earthquake swarm in the Vogtland lasted from 6 October 2008 until January 2009. Greatest magnitudes exceeded M3.5 several times in October making it the greatest swarm since 1985/86. In contrast to the swarms in 1985 and 2000, seismic moment release was concentrated near swarm onset. Focal area and temporal evolution are similar to the swarm in 2000. Work hypothysis: uprising upper-mantle fluids trigger swarm earthquakes at low stress level. To monitor the seismicity, the University of Potsdam operated a small aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance between 18 October 2008 and 18 March 2009. Consisting of 12 seismic stations and 3 additional microphones, the array is capable of detecting earthquakes from larger to very low magnitudes (M<-1) as well as associated air waves. We use array techniques to determine properties of the incoming wavefield: noise, direct P and S waves, and converted phases.