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Although prior research has shown that reward provision might sometimes increase creativity, little is known about how leadership that clarifies effort-reward contingencies (i.e., contingent reward leadership) is related to team creativity. Drawing on the theory of learned industriousness, we argue that contingent reward leadership can enhance team knowledge exchange and, in turn, team creative performance. However, we propose that this relationship is moderated by leader unpredictability, which can create uncertainty about resource allocation, thereby undermining the otherwise positive effect of contingent reward leadership. In a two-source, lagged design (three-wave) field study with data from 60 organizational teams, we found a conditional indirect (moderated mediation) effect of contingent reward leadership on team creative performance through team knowledge exchange. This conditional indirect effect was positive when leader unpredictability was low, and negative when leader unpredictability was high. Our research provides leaders with clear and actionable advice by showing that contingent reward leadership promotes team creative performance only when leaders act in predictable and consistent ways.
Scholars have argued that visionary leadership is an effective tool to motivate followers because it provides them with meaning and purpose. However, previous research tells us little about which leaders and under which circumstances leaders engage in visionary leadership. We draw on theories of human and social capital to argue that leader work centrality is an important antecedent of visionary leadership, and especially so for leaders with low organizational tenure. Moreover, we propose that visionary leadership then provides followers with meaningfulness and thereby decreases their turnover intentions. Our predictions were confirmed by data from a two-wave, lagged-design field study with 101 leader-follower dyads. Overall, our research identifies an important antecedent of visionary leadership, a specific situation in which this antecedent is particularly important, and provides empirical evidence for why visionary leadership can bind followers to an organization.
The persistence of food preferences, which are crucial for diet-related decisions, is a significant obstacle to changing unhealthy eating behavior. To overcome this obstacle, the current study investigates whether posthypnotic suggestions (PHSs) can enhance food-related decisions by measuring food choices and subjective ratings. After assessing hypnotic susceptibility in Session 1, at the beginning of Session 2, a PHS was delivered aiming to increase the desirability of healthy food items (e.g., vegetables and fruit). After the termination of hypnosis, a set of two tasks was administrated twice, once when the PHS was activated and once deactivated in counterbalanced order. The task set consisted of rating 170 pictures of food items, followed by an online supermarket where participants were instructed to select enough food from the same item pool for a fictitious week of quarantine. After 1 week, Session 3 mimicked Session 2 without renewed hypnosis induction to assess the persistence of the PHS effects. The Bayesian hierarchical modeling results indicate that the PHS increased preferences and choices of healthy food items without altering the influence of preferences in choices. In contrast, for unhealthy food items, not only both preferences and choices were decreased due to the PHS, but also their relationship was modified. That is, although choices became negatively biased against unhealthy items, preferences played a more dominant role in unhealthy choices when the PHS was activated. Importantly, all effects persisted over 1 week, qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results indicate that although the PHS affected healthy choices through resolve, i.e., preferred more and chosen more, unhealthy items were probably chosen less impulsively through effortful suppression. Together, besides the translational importance of the current results for helping the obesity epidemic in modern societies, our results contribute theoretically to the understanding of hypnosis and food choices.
Purpose
Because steadily growing consumption is not beneficial for nature and climate and is not the same as increasing well-being, an anti-consumerism movement has formed worldwide. The renouncement of dispensable consumption will, however, only establish itself as a significant lifestyle if consumers do not perceive reduced consumption as a personal sacrifice. Since prior research has not yielded a consistent understanding of the relationship between anti-consumption and personal well-being, this paper aims to examine three factors about which theory implies that they may moderate this relationship: decision-control empowerment, market-control empowerment and the value of materialism.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis is based on data from a large-scale, representative online survey (N = 1,398). Structural equation modelling with latent interaction effects is used to test how three moderators (decision-control empowerment, market-control empowerment and materialism) affect the relationship amongst four types of anti-consumption (e.g. voluntary simplicity) and three different well-being states (e.g. subjective well-being).
Findings
While both dimensions of empowerment almost always directly promote consumer well-being, significant moderation effects are present in only a few but meaningful cases. Although the materialism value tends to reduce consumers’ well-being, it improves the well-being effect of two anti-consumption styles.
Research limitations/implications
Using only one sample from a wealthy country is a limitation of the study. Researchers should replicate the findings in different nations and cultures.
Practical implications
Consumer affairs practitioners and commercial marketing for sustainably produced, high-quality and long-lasting goods can benefit greatly from these findings.
Social implications
This paper shows that sustainable marketing campaigns can more easily motivate consumers to voluntarily reduce their consumption for the benefit of society and the environment if a high level of market-control empowerment can be communicated to them.
Originality/value
This study provides differentiated new insights into the roles of consumer empowerment, i.e. both decision-control empowerment and market-control empowerment, and the value of materialism to frame specific relationships between different anti-consumption types and various well-being states.
Self-efficacy reflects the self-belief that one can persistently perform difficult and novel tasks while coping with adversity. As such beliefs reflect how individuals behave, think, and act, they are key for successful entrepreneurial activities. While existing literature mainly analyzes the influence of the task-related construct of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, we take a different perspective and investigate, based on a representative sample of 1,405 German business founders, how the personality characteristic of generalized self-efficacy influences start-up performance as measured by a broad set of business outcomes up to 19 months after business creation. Outcomes include start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, as well as growth-oriented outcomes such as job creation and innovation. We find statistically significant and economically important positive effects of high scores of self-efficacy on start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, which become even stronger when focusing on the growth-oriented outcome of innovation. Furthermore, we observe that generalized self-efficacy is similarly distributed between female and male business founders, with effects being partly stronger for female entrepreneurs. Our findings are important for policy instruments that are meant to support firm growth by facilitating the design of more target-oriented offers for training, coaching, and entrepreneurial incubators.
In response to strong revenue and income losses facing a large share of self-employed individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic, the German federal government introduced a €50bn emergency-aid program. Based on real-time online-survey data comprising more than 20,000 observations, we analyze the impact of this program on the confidence to survive the crisis. We investigate how the digitalization level of self-employed individuals influences the program’s effectiveness. Employing propensity score matching, we find that the emergency-aid program had only moderately positive effects on the confidence of self-employed to survive the crisis. However, self-employed whose businesses were highly digitalized, benefitted much more from the state aid than those whose businesses were less digitalized. This only holds true for those self-employed, who started the digitalization processes already before the crisis. Taking a regional perspective, we find suggestive evidence that the quality of the regional broadband infrastructure matters in the sense that it increases the effectiveness of the emergency-aid program. Our findings show the interplay between governmental support programs, the digitalization levels of entrepreneurs, and the regional digital infrastructure. The study helps public policy to improve the impact of crisis-related policy instruments, ultimately increasing the resilience of small firms in times of crises.
SOEP-LEE2
(2023)
This article presents the new linked employee-employer study of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP-LEE2), which offers new research opportunities for various academic fields. In particular, the study contains two waves of an employer survey for persons in dependent work that is also linkable to the SOEP, a large representative German annual household panel (SOEP-LEE2-Core). Moreover, SOEP-LEE2 includes two waves of self-employed surveys based on self-employed in the SOEP-Core (SOEP-LEE2-Self-employed) and three additional representative employer surveys, independent of the SOEP in terms of sampling employers (SOEP-LEE2-Compare). Survey topics include digitalisation and cybersecurity, human capital formation, COVID-19, and human resource management. Here, we describe the content, survey design, and comparability of the different datasets in the SOEP-LEE2 to potential users in different disciplines of research.
Twenty-four scientists met for the annual Auxological conference held at Krobielowice castle, Poland, to discuss the diverse influences of the environment and of social behavior on growth following last year’s focus on growth and public health concerns (Hermanussen et al., 2022b). Growth and final body size exhibit marked plastic responses to ecological conditions. Among the shortest are the pygmoid people of Rampasasa, Flores, Indonesia, who still live under most secluded insular conditions. Genetics and nutrition are usually considered responsible for the poor growth in many parts of this world, but evidence is accumulating on the prominent impact of social embedding on child growth. Secular trends not only in the growth of height, but also in body proportions, accompany the secular changes in the social, economic and political conditions, with major influences on the emotional and educational circumstances under which the children grow up (Bogin, 2021). Aspects of developmental tempo and aspects of sports were discussed, and the impact of migration by the example of women from Bangladesh who grew up in the UK. Child growth was considered in particular from the point of view of strategic adjustments of individual size within the network of its social group. Theoretical considerations on network characteristics were presented and related to the evolutionary conservation of growth regulating hypothalamic neuropeptides that have been shown to link behavior and physical growth in the vertebrate species. New statistical approaches were presented for the evaluation of short term growth measurements that permit monitoring child growth at intervals of a few days and weeks.
Background: Assessing short-term growth in humans is still fraught with difficulties. Especially when looking for small variations and increments, such as mini growth spurts, high precision instruments or frequent measurements are necessary. Daily measurements however require a lot of effort, both for anthropologists and for the subjects. Therefore, new sophisticated approaches are needed that reduce fluctuations and reveal underlying patterns.
Objectives: Changepoints are abrupt variations in the properties of time series data. In the context of growth, such variations could be variation in mean height. By adjusting the variance and using different growth models, we assessed the ability of changepoint analysis to analyse short-term growth and detect mini growth spurts.
Sample and Methods: We performed Bayesian changepoint analysis on simulated growth data using the bcp package in R. Simulated growth patterns included stasis, linear growth, catch-up growth, and mini growth spurts. Specificity and a normalised variant of the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) were used to assess the algorithm’s performance. Welch’s t-test was used to compare differences of the mean.
Results: First results show that changepoint analysis can detect mini growth spurts. However, the ability to detect mini growth spurts is highly dependent on measurement error. Data preparation, such as ranking and rotating time series data, showed negligible improvements. Missing data was an issue and may affect the prediction quality of the classification metrics.
Conclusion: Changepoint analysis is a promising tool to analyse short-term growth. However, further optimisation and analysis of real growth data is needed to make broader generalisations.
Human growth data analysis and statistics – the 5th Gülpe International Student Summer School
(2023)
The Summer School in Gülpe (Ecological Station of the University of Potsdam) offers an exceptional learning opportunity for students to apply their knowledge and skills to real-world problems. With the guidance of experienced human biologists, statisticians, and programmers, students have the unique chance to analyze their own data and gain valuable insights. This interdisciplinary setting not only bridges different research areas but also leads to highly valuable outputs. The progress of students within just a few days is truly remarkable, especially when they are motivated and receive immediate feedback on their questions, problems, and results. The Summer School covers a wide range of topics, with this year’s focus mainly on two areas: understanding the impact of socioeconomic and physiological factors on human development and mastering statistical techniques for analyzing data such as changepoint analysis and the St. Nicolas House Analysis (SNHA) to visualize interacting variables. The latter technique, born out of the Summer School’s emphasis on gaining comprehensive data insights and understanding major relationships, has proven to be a valuable tool for researchers in the field. The articles in this special issue demonstrate that the Summer School in Gülpe stands as a testament to the power of practical learning and collaboration. Students who attend not only gain hands-on experience but also benefit from the expertise of professionals and the opportunity to engage with peers from diverse disciplines.
No evidence of growth impairment after forced migration in Polish school children after World War II
(2023)
Background: Migration is omnipresent. It can come hand in hand with emotional stress which is known to influence the growth of children.
Objective: The aim of this study was to analyse whether type of migration (forced or voluntary) and the geographic direction had influenced the growth of Polish children after World War II.
Sample and Methods: A sub dataset of 2,208 individuals between the ages of 2-20, created from data of the 2nd Polish Anthropological Survey carried out in 1966–1969, including anthropometrical data and social and demographic information based on questionnaire, was used to analyse migration effects.
Results: No association could be found between the direction of migration and the height of the children. The confidence intervals of the means of all classified migration categories overlap significantly and the effect size of the influence of migration category on height is ds=.140, which is too low to see any effects, even if there were one.
Conclusion: Neither forced nor voluntary migration in Poland after World War II led to a change in height in children of migrating families.
Nutrition, size, and tempo
(2023)
Nutrition is a prerequisite, but not a regulator of growth. Growth is defined as increase in size over time. The understanding of growth includes an understanding of the binary concept of physical time and individual tempo. Excess food causes tempo acceleration. Food restriction delays tempo. Tempo reflects the pace of life. It is a dynamic physical response to a broad spectrum of social, economic, political, and emotional (SEPE) factors and can affect life expectancy. Variations in tempo create distortions of the z-score patterns of height and weight. Illness or intermediate food shortage lead to intermediate halts in development and create short dips in the z-score patterns. Children who develop throughout life at delayed pace usually run at lower z-scores for height and weight, and show a characteristic adolescent trough; children who develop throughout life at faster than average pace usually run at higher z-scores and show a characteristic adolescent peak in their z-score patterns. During adolescence, almost half of the height variance is due to tempo variation. There is not one tempo for the whole body. Different organ systems grow and mature at different pace.
What does stunting tell us?
(2023)
Stunting is commonly linked with undernutrition. Yet, already after World War I, German pediatricians questioned this link and stated that no association exists between nutrition and height. Recent analyses within different populations of Low- and middle-income countries with high rates of stunted children failed to support the assumption that stunted children have a low BMI and skinfold sickness as signs of severe caloric deficiency. So, stunting is not a synonym of malnutrition. Parental education level has a positive influence on body height in stunted populations, e.g., in India and in Indonesia. Socially disadvantaged children tend to be shorter and lighter than children from affluent families.
Humans are social mammals; they regulate growth similar to other social mammals. Also in humans, body height is strongly associated with the position within the social hierarchy, reflecting the personal and group-specific social, economic, political, and emotional environment. These non-nutritional impact factors on growth are summarized by the concept of SEPE (Social-Economic-Political-Emotional) factors. SEPE reflects on prestige, dominance-subordination, social identity, and ego motivation of individuals and social groups.
In a comparison of three human service organisations in which the human body plays a key role, we examine how organisations regulate religious body practices. We concentrate on Muslim norms of dressing and undressing as a potential focal point of cultural and religious diversity. Inspired by Ray’s (2019) idea of racialized organizations, we assume that state-run organizations in Germany are characterized by a strong commitment to religious tolerance and non-discrimination but also marked by anti- Muslim sentiment prevalent among the German population. Our study looks for mechanism that explain how Human Service Organizations accommodate Muslim body practices. It draws on qualitative empirical data collected in state-run hospitals, schools and swimming pools in Germany. Our analyses show that the organizations draw on formal and informal rules at the organizational level to accommodate Islam. We identify five general organizational mechanisms that may hinder Muslim accommodation in human service organizations. In particular, we see a risk of decoupling between the expectation of religious tolerance and processes that lead to informal discrimination, driven mainly by the difficulty of controlling group dynamics among users.
A growing number of studies have recently postulated a so-called local turn in the study of immigrant and refugee integration policy. A fundamental, yet untested, assumption of this body of research is that local (sub-national) policies and administrations shape how migrants and refugees integrate into society. We develop and apply an analytical model using multilevel modeling techniques based on large-N, longitudinal survey data (N > 9000) with refugees (2012–2018) in a highly decentralized country (Germany) to estimate the scope for local policy effects net of individual-level and state- and district-level characteristics. We show that region and district-level variation in integration outcomes across multiple dimensions (employment, education, language, housing, social) is limited (∼5%) within 4–8 years after immigration. We find modest variation in policy indicators (∼10%), which do not appear to directly translate into outcomes. We discuss implications for the study of local policies and the potential for greater convergence between administrative and political science, interested in governance structures and policy variation, and sociology and economics, interested primarily in integration outcomes.
Focusing on the passive use of Instagram, we apply the affordance perspective to deeply explore its use and use-related outcomes. In the qualitative study, we uncover the affordances of focal social media features. Two distinct groups of affordances (self- and others-oriented) emerge. Following the grounded theory methodology, we develop the affordances-actualizations-outcomes model, explaining how immediate goals associated with features translate into outcomes. In the quantitative study, we test the model by applying structural equation modeling. Our findings confirm that actualizations of self- and others-oriented affordances are associated with distinct outcomes: social connectedness, positive affect, and overall satisfaction with Instagram experience.
A new solid-state material, N-butyl pyridinium diiodido argentate(I), is synthesized using a simple and effective one-pot approach. In the solid state, the compound exhibits 1D ([AgI2](-))(n) chains that are stabilized by the N-butyl pyridinium cation. The 1D structure is further manifested by the formation of long, needle-like crystals, as revealed from electron microscopy. As the general composition is derived from metal halide-based ionic liquids, the compound has a low melting point of 100-101 degrees C, as confirmed by differential scanning calorimetry. Most importantly, the compound has a conductivity of 10(-6) S cm(-1) at room temperature. At higher temperatures the conductivity increases and reaches to 10(-4 )S cm(-1) at 70 degrees C. In contrast to AgI, however, the current material has a highly anisotropic 1D arrangement of the ionic domains. This provides direct and tuneable access to fast and anisotropic ionic conduction. The material is thus a significant step forward beyond current ion conductors and a highly promising prototype for the rational design of highly conductive ionic solid-state conductors for battery or solar cell applications.
The St. Nicolas House Algorithm (SNHA) finds association chains of direct dependent variables in a data set. The dependency is based on the correlation coefficient, which is visualized as an undirected graph. The network prediction is improved by a bootstrap routine. It enables the computation of the empirical p-value, which is used to evaluate the significance of the predicted edges. Synthetic data generated with the Monte Carlo method were used to firstly compare the Python package with the original R package, and secondly to evaluate the predicted network using the sensitivity, specificity, balanced classification rate and the Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC). The Python implementation yields the same results as the R package. Hence, the algorithm was correctly ported into Python. The SNHA scores high specificity values for all tested graphs. For graphs with high edge densities, the other evaluation metrics decrease due to lower sensitivity, which could be partially improved by using bootstrap,while for graphs with low edge densities the algorithm achieves high evaluation scores. The empirical p-values indicated that the predicted edges indeed are significant.
Sanctions are critical to the Security Council's efforts to fight terrorism. What is striking is that the Council's sanctions regimes are subject to detailed sets of rules and decision criteria. The scholarship on human rights in counterterrorism assumes that rights advocacy and court litigation have prompted this development. The article complements this literature by highlighting an unexplored internal driver of legal-regulatory decision-making and explores how mixed-motive interest constellations among Security Council members have affected the extent of committee regulations and the content of decisions taken by sanctions committees. Based on internal documents and diplomatic cables, a comparative analysis of the Iraq sanctions regime and the counterterrorism sanctions regime demonstrates that mixed-motive interest constellations among Security Council members provide incentives to elaborate rules to guide decision-making resulting in legal-regulatory sanctions governance, even if the human rights of targeted individuals are not at stake. For comparative leverage and to assess the limits of the proposed mechanism, the analysis is briefly extended to other sanctions regimes targeting individuals (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan). The findings have implications for this essential tool of the Security Council to react to threats to peace as diverse as counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and internal armed conflict.
About 15 years ago, the first Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) appeared and revolutionized online education with more interactive and engaging course designs. Yet, keeping learners motivated and ensuring high satisfaction is one of the challenges today's course designers face. Therefore, many MOOC providers employed gamification elements that only boost extrinsic motivation briefly and are limited to platform support. In this article, we introduce and evaluate a gameful learning design we used in several iterations on computer science education courses. For each of the courses on the fundamentals of the Java programming language, we developed a self-contained, continuous story that accompanies learners through their learning journey and helps visualize key concepts. Furthermore, we share our approach to creating the surrounding story in our MOOCs and provide a guideline for educators to develop their own stories. Our data and the long-term evaluation spanning over four Java courses between 2017 and 2021 indicates the openness of learners toward storified programming courses in general and highlights those elements that had the highest impact. While only a few learners did not like the story at all, most learners consumed the additional story elements we provided. However, learners' interest in influencing the story through majority voting was negligible and did not show a considerable positive impact, so we continued with a fixed story instead. We did not find evidence that learners just participated in the narrative because they worked on all materials. Instead, for 10-16% of learners, the story was their main course motivation. We also investigated differences in the presentation format and concluded that several longer audio-book style videos were most preferred by learners in comparison to animated videos or different textual formats. Surprisingly, the availability of a coherent story embedding examples and providing a context for the practical programming exercises also led to a slightly higher ranking in the perceived quality of the learning material (by 4%). With our research in the context of storified MOOCs, we advance gameful learning designs, foster learner engagement and satisfaction in online courses, and help educators ease knowledge transfer for their learners.
Predicting entrepreneurial development based on individual and business-related characteristics is a key objective of entrepreneurship research. In this context, we investigate whether the motives of becoming an entrepreneur influence the subsequent entrepreneurial development. In our analysis, we examine a broad range of business outcomes including survival and income, as well as job creation, and expansion and innovation activities for up to 40 months after business formation. Using the self-determination theory as conceptual background, we aggregate the start-up motives into a continuous motivational index. We show – based on a unique dataset of German start-ups from unemployment and non-unemployment – that the later business performance is better, the higher they score on this index. Effects are particularly strong for growth-oriented outcomes like innovation and expansion activities. In a next step, we examine three underlying motivational categories that we term opportunity, career ambition, and necessity. We show that individuals driven by opportunity motives perform better in terms of innovation and business expansion activities, while career ambition is positively associated with survival, income, and the probability of hiring employees. All effects are robust to the inclusion of a large battery of covariates that are proven to be important determinants of entrepreneurial performance.
Taxed fairly?
(2023)
Empirically, the poor are more likely to support increases in the level of tax progressivity than the rich. Such income-stratified tax preferences can result from differences in preferences of what should be taxed as argued by previous literature. However, it may also result from income-stratified perceptions of what is taxed. This paper argues that the rich perceive higher levels of tax progressivity than the poor and that tax perceptions affect individuals’ support for progressive taxation. Using data from an Austrian survey experiment, we test this argument in three steps: First, in line with past research, we show that individuals’ income positions are connected to individuals’ tax preferences as a self-interest rationale would predict. However, second, we show that this variation is mainly driven by income-stratified tax perceptions. Third, randomly informing a subset of the sample about actual tax rates, we find that changing tax perceptions causally affects support for redistributive taxation among those who initially overestimated the level of tax progressivity. Our results indicate that tax perceptions are relevant for forming tax preferences and suggest that individuals are more polarized in their perceptions of who pays how much taxes than in their support for who should pay how much tax.
Thermal electrons have gyroradii many orders of magnitude smaller than the finite width of a shock, thus need to be pre-accelerated before they can cross it and be accelerated by diffusive shock acceleration. One region where pre-acceleration may occur is the inner foreshock, which upstream electrons must pass through before any potential downstream crossing. In this paper, we perform a large-scale particle-in-cell simulation that generates a single shock with parameters motivated from supernova remnants. Within the foreshock, reflected electrons excite the oblique whistler instability and produce electromagnetic whistler waves, which comove with the upstream flow and as nonlinear structures eventually reach radii of up to 5 ion-gyroradii. We show that the inner electromagnetic configuration of the whistlers evolves into complex nonlinear structures bound by a strong magnetic field around four times the upstream value. Although these nonlinear structures do not in general interact with cospatial upstream electrons, they resonate with electrons that have been reflected at the shock. We show that they can scatter, or even trap, reflected electrons, confining around 0.8% of the total upstream electron population to the region close to the shock where they can undergo substantial pre-acceleration. This acceleration process is similar to, yet approximately three times more efficient than, stochastic shock drift acceleration.
Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany
(2023)
Data-driven models have been recently suggested to surrogate computationally expensive hydrodynamic models to map flood hazards. However, most studies focused on developing models for the same area or the same precipitation event. It is thus not obvious how transferable the models are in space. This study evaluates the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on the U-Net architecture and the random forest (RF) algorithm to predict flood water depth, the models' transferability in space and performance improvement using transfer learning techniques. We used three study areas in Berlin to train, validate and test the models. The results showed that (1) the RF models outperformed the CNN models for predictions within the training domain, presumable at the cost of overfitting; (2) the CNN models had significantly higher potential than the RF models to generalize beyond the training domain; and (3) the CNN models could better benefit from transfer learning technique to boost their performance outside training domains than RF models.
A room full of ‘views’
(2023)
Quantitative research into the effectiveness of the UN human rights treaty bodies (UNTBs) in eliciting remedial responses from states is impeded by a lack of usable data on how states respond to their decisions. The new Treaty Body Views Dataset (TBVD) aims to fill this gap. It comprises details on all published decisions in individual complaints cases issued by the UNTBs between 1979 and 2019 and matches these with information on their state of compliance. The TBVD can be used for research on the activities of the treaty bodies, the nature of the decisions themselves, or state behavior following a decision. An empirical application illustrates how the TBVD can advance knowledge about the factors that correlate with compliance with adverse UNTB decisions. Results show that the likelihood of implementation hinges critically on decision-level characteristics, and reveal differences and similarities between compliance with UNTB decisions and regional human rights court judgments.
Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
In recent years, there have been a growing number of online and offline attacks linked to a loosely connected network of misogynist and antifeminist online communities called ‘the manosphere’. Since 2016, the ideas spread among and by groups of the manosphere have also become more closely aligned with those of other Far-Right online networks. In this commentary, I explore the role of what I term ‘evidence-based misogyny’ for mobilization and radicalization into the antifeminist and misogynist subcultures of the manosphere. Evidence-based misogyny is a discursive strategy, whereby members of the manosphere refer to (and misinterpret) knowledge in the form of statistics, studies, news items and pop-culture and mimic accepted methods of knowledge presentation to support their essentializing, polarizing views about gender relations in society. Evidence-based misogyny is a core aspect for manosphere-related mobilization as it provides a false sense of authority and forges a collective identity, which is framed as a supposed ‘alternative’ to mainstream gender knowledge. Due to its core function to justify and confirm the misogynist sentiments of users, evidence-based misogyny serves as connector between the manosphere and both mainstream conservative as well as other Far-Right and conspiratorial discourses.
A circulatory loop
(2023)
In the digitalization debate, gender biases in digital technologies play a significant role because of their potential for social exclusion and inequality. It is therefore remarkable that organizations as drivers of digitalization and as places for social integration have been widely overlooked so far. Simultaneously, gender biases and digitalization have structurally immanent connections to organizations. Therefore, a look at the reciprocal relationship between organizations, digitalization, and gender is needed. The article provides answers to the question of whether and how organizations (re)produce, reinforce, or diminish gender‐specific inequalities during their digital transformations. On the one hand, gender inequalities emerge when organizations use post‐bureaucratic concepts through digitalization. On the other hand, gender inequalities are reproduced when organizations either program or implement digital technologies and fail to establish control structures that prevent gender biases. This article shows that digitalization can act as a catalyst for inequality‐producing mechanisms, but also has the potential to mitigate inequalities. We argue that organizations must be considered when discussing the potential of exclusion through digitalization.
In nowadays production, fluctuations in demand, shortening product life-cycles, and highly configurable products require an adaptive and robust control approach to maintain competitiveness. This approach must not only optimise desired production objectives but also cope with unforeseen machine failures, rush orders, and changes in short-term demand. Previous control approaches were often implemented using a single operations layer and a standalone deep learning approach, which may not adequately address the complex organisational demands of modern manufacturing systems. To address this challenge, we propose a hyper-heuristics control model within a semi-heterarchical production system, in which multiple manufacturing and distribution agents are spread across pre-defined modules. The agents employ a deep reinforcement learning algorithm to learn a policy for selecting low-level heuristics in a situation-specific manner, thereby leveraging system performance and adaptability. We tested our approach in simulation and transferred it to a hybrid production environment. By that, we were able to demonstrate its multi-objective optimisation capabilities compared to conventional approaches in terms of mean throughput time, tardiness, and processing of prioritised orders in a multi-layered production system. The modular design is promising in reducing the overall system complexity and facilitates a quick and seamless integration into other scenarios.
In the context of persistent images of self-perpetuated technologies, we discuss the interplay of digital technologies and organisational dynamics against the backdrop of systems theory. Building on the case of an international corporation that, during an agile reorganisation, introduced an AI-based personnel management platform, we show how technical systems produce a form of algorithmic contingency that subsequently leads to the emergence of formal and informal interaction systems. Using the concept of datafication, we explain how these interactions are barriers to the self-perpetuation of data-based decision-making, making it possible to take into consideration further decision factors and complementing the output of the platform. The research was carried out within the scope of the research project ‘Organisational Implications of Digitalisation: The Development of (Post-)Bureaucratic Organisational Structures in the Context of Digital Transformation’ funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys.
Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates.
Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration.
Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers.
Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored.
The analysis of event time series is in general challenging. Most time series analysis tools are limited for the analysis of this kind of data. Recurrence analysis, a powerful concept from nonlinear time series analysis, provides several opportunities to work with event data and even for the most challenging task of comparing event time series with continuous time series. Here, the basic concept is introduced, the challenges are discussed, and the future perspectives are summarized.
Planned decommissioning of coal-fired plants in Europe requires innovative technical and economic strategies to support coal regions on their path towards a climate-resilient future. The repurposing of open pit mines into hybrid pumped hydro power storage (HPHS) of excess energy from the electric grid, and renewable sources will contribute to the EU Green Deal, increase the economic value, stabilize the regional job market and contribute to the EU energy supply security. This study aims to present a preliminary phase of a geospatial workflow used to evaluate land suitability by implementing a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) technique with an advanced geographic information system (GIS) in the context of an interdisciplinary feasibility study on HPHS in the Kardia lignite open pit mine (Western Macedonia, Greece). The introduced geospatial analysis is based on the utilization of the constraints and ranking criteria within the boundaries of the abandoned mine regarding specific topographic and proximity criteria. The applied criteria were selected from the literature, while for their weights, the experts' judgement was introduced by implementing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in the framework of the ATLANTIS research program. According to the results, seven regions were recognized as suitable, with a potential energy storage capacity from 1.09 to 5.16 GWh. Particularly, the present study's results reveal that 9.27% (212,884 m(2)) of the area had a very low suitability, 15.83% (363,599 m(2)) had a low suitability, 23.99% (550,998 m(2)) had a moderate suitability, 24.99% (573,813 m(2)) had a high suitability, and 25.92% (595,125 m(2)) had a very high suitability for the construction of the upper reservoir. The proposed semi-automatic geospatial workflow introduces an innovative tool that can be applied to open pit mines globally to identify the optimum design for an HPHS system depending on the existing lower reservoir.
Although hate speech is widely recognized as an online phenomenon, very few studies have investigated hate speech among adolescents in offline settings (e.g., schools). At the same time, not much is known about countering hate speech (counterspeech) among adolescents and which factors are associated with it. To this end, the present study used the socio-ecological framework to investigate the direct and indirect links among one contextual factor (i.e., classroom climate) and two intrapersonal factors (i.e., empathy for victims of hate speech, self-efficacy regarding intervention in hate speech) to understand counterspeech among adolescents. The sample is based on self-reports of 3,225 students in Grades 7 to 9 (51.7% self-identified as female) from 36 schools in Germany and Switzerland. Self-report questionnaires were administered to measure classroom climate, empathy, self-efficacy, and counterspeech. After controlling for adolescents' grade, gender, immigrant background, and socioeconomic status (SES), the 2-(1-1)-1 multilevel mediation analysis showed that classroom climate (L2), empathy for victims of hate speech (L1), and self-efficacy toward intervention in hate speech (L1) had a positive effect on countering hate speech (L1). Classroom climate (L2) was also positively linked to empathy for victims of hate speech (L1), and self-efficacy toward intervention in hate speech (L1). Furthermore, classroom climate (L2) was indirectly associated with countering hate speech (L1) via greater empathy (L1) and self-efficacy (L1). The findings highlight the need to focus on contextual and intrapersonal factors when trying to facilitate adolescents' willingness to face hate speech with civic courage and proactively engage against it.
The article analyzes the investigations conducted by the Berlin police into the subsequent perpetrator of the vehicle-ramming attack at a Berlin Christmas market on December 19, 2016. We explore why the police closed these investigations prematurely and thereby focus on an attempt to prevent lone actor terrorism. The analysis shows that the police closed its investigations owing to organizational dynamics driven by an increasing need to justify further resource investments in the face of absent conclusive evidence and scarce resources in relation to the organizational case ecology. We propose hypotheses for future research and formulate three contributions to existing research on the sociology of police, terrorism prevention, and lone actor research.
Political trust—in terms of trust in political institutions—is an important precondition for the functioning and stability of democracy. One widely studied determinant of political trust is income inequality. While the empirical finding that societies with lower levels of income inequality have higher levels of trust is well established, the exact ways in which income inequality affects political trust remain unclear. Past research has shown that individuals oftentimes have biased perceptions of inequality. Considering potentially biased inequality perceptions, I argue that individuals compare their perceptions of inequality to their preference for inequality. If they identify a gap between what they perceive and what they prefer (= fairness gap), they consider their attitudes towards inequality unrepresented. This, in turn, reduces trust in political institutions. Using three waves of the ESS and the ISSP in a cross-country perspective, I find that (1) perceiving a larger fairness gap is associated with lower levels of political trust; (2) the fairness gap mediates the link between actual inequality and political trust; and (3) disaggregating the fairness gap measure, political trust is more strongly linked to variation in inequality perceptions than to variation in inequality preferences. This indicates that inequality perceptions are an important factor shaping trust into political institutions.
Living alone in the city
(2023)
Over the past decades, the number of single households is constantly rising in metropolitan regions. In addition, they became increasingly heterogeneous. In the media, individuals who live alone are sometimes still presented as deficient. Recent research, however, indicates a way more complex picture. Using the example of Vienna, this paper investigates the quality of life of different groups of single households in the city. Based on five waves of the Viennese Quality of Life Survey covering almost a quarter of a century (1995–2018), we analyse six domains of subjective well-being (satisfaction with the financial situation, the housing situation, the main activity, the family life, social contacts, and leisure time activities). Our analyses reveal that, in most domains, average satisfaction of single households has hardly changed over time. However, among those living alone satisfaction of senior people (60+) increased while satisfaction of younger people (below age 30) decreased. Increasing differences in satisfaction with main activity, housing, or financial situation reflect general societal developments on the Viennese labour and housing markets. The old clichéd images of the “young, reckless, happy single” and the “lonely, poor, dissatisfied senior single” reverse reality.
In light of the growing emotionalization of public discourse, this article deals with the action of shame allocation in Israeli accountability interviews. A qualitative analysis of tokens of the Hebrew verb lehitbayesh ‘to be ashamed’ in political interviews was conducted using Discursive Psychology and Conversation Analysis methods. The findings show that in this public context the verb lehitbayesh is mostly not used to convey an emotional state, nor can its meaning be explained by the classic theoretical conceptualization of shame. Instead, lehitbayesh is mobilized to allocate shame to another actor, and portrays the allocator as morally superior and as someone who sacrifices for what is right. Lehitbayesh is part of the negotiations between journalists and politicians over the question of who is accountable for a transgressive act, what the desired response is, and who the relevant audience for the moral lesson is.
International institutions are an essential driving force of contemporary policies to combat gender-based violence but remain toothless if political actors do not implement them in domestic policies. How can scholars conceptualise the transposition of international gender-based violence norms into domestic policies? I argue that discourse network analysis provides a powerful conceptual and methodological extension of critical frame analysis to understand how frames shape the meaning of gender-based violence norms in multi-level institutional contexts. Frames’ normative and cognitive network structure invites combining discourse network and frame analysis techniques that locate frames’ power in their ability to connect different institutional spheres temporally and spatially. I outline a multi-level research agenda that traces the framing processes of international norms and their domestic implementation through gender-based violence policies in the Council of Europe’s Istanbul Convention. This agenda includes avenues to study how complex transnational policy frameworks like the Istanbul Convention play out in domestic policy implementation.
Poor dietary quality is a major cause of morbidity, making the promotion of healthy eating a societal priority. Older adults are a critical target group for promoting healthy eating to enable healthy aging. One factor suggested to promote healthy eating is the willingness to try unfamiliar foods, referred to as food neophilia. This two-wave longitudinal study explored the stability of food neophilia and dietary quality and their prospective relationship over three years, analyzing self-reported data from N = 960 older adults (MT1 = 63.4, range = 50–84) participating in the NutriAct Family Study (NFS) in a cross-lagged panel design. Dietary quality was rated using the NutriAct diet score, based on the current evidence for chronic disease prevention. Food neophilia was measured using the Variety Seeking Tendency Scale. The analyses revealed high a longitudinal stability of both constructs and a small positive cross-sectional correlation between them. Food neophilia had no prospective effect on dietary quality, whereas a very small positive prospective effect of dietary quality on food neophilia was found. Our findings give initial insights into the positive relation of food neophilia and a health-promoting diet in aging and underscore the need for more in-depth research, e.g., on the constructs’ developmental trajectories and potential critical windows of opportunity for promoting food neophilia.
Governance abhors a vacuum
(2023)
International organisations have become increasingly contested resulting in worries about their decline and termination. While international organisation termination is indeed a regular event in international relations, this article shows that other institutions carry the legacy of terminated international organisations. We develop the novel concept of international organisation afterlife and suggest indicators to systematically assess it. Our analysis of 26 major terminated international organisations reveals legal-institutional and asset continuity in 21 cases. To further illustrate this point, the article zooms in on the afterlife of the International Institute of Agriculture in the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Refugee Organization in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and the Western European Union in the European Union. In these three cases, international organisation afterlife inspired and structured the design of their successor institutions. While specific international organisations might be terminated, international cooperation therefore often lives on in other institutions.
This paper presents a methodological and conceptual replication of Stieglitz and Dang-Xuan’s (2013) investigation of the role of sentiment in information-sharing behavior on social media. Whereas Stieglitz and Dang-Xuan (2013) focused on Twitter communication prior to the state parliament elections in the German states Baden-Wurttemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, and Berlin in 2011, we test their theoretical propositions in the context of the state parliament elections in Saxony-Anhalt (Germany) 2021. We confirm the positive link between sentiment in a political Twitter message and its number of retweets in a methodological replication. In a conceptual replication, where sentiment was assessed with the alternative dictionary-based tool LIWC, the sentiment was negatively associated with the retweet volume. In line with the original study, the strength of association between sentiment and retweet time lag insignificantly differs between tweets with negative sentiment and tweets with positive sentiment. We also found that the number of an author’s followers was an essential determinant of sharing behavior. However, two hypotheses supported in the original study did not hold for our sample. Precisely, the total amount of sentiments was insignificantly linked to the time lag to the first retweet. Finally, in our data, we do not observe that the association between the overall sentiment and retweet quantity is stronger for tweets with negative sentiment than for those with positive sentiment.
Purpose – Design thinking has become an omnipresent process to foster innovativeness in various fields. Due to its popularity in both practice and theory, the number of publications has been growing rapidly. The authors aim to develop a research framework that reflects the current state of research and allows for the identification of research gaps.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors conduct a systematic literature review based on 164 scholarly articles on design thinking.
Findings – This study proposes a framework, which identifies individual and organizational context factors, the stages of a typical design thinking process with its underlying principles and tools, and the individual as well as organizational outcomes of a design thinking project.
Originality/value – Whereas previous reviews focused on particular aspects of design thinking, such as its characteristics, the organizational culture as a context factor or its role on new product development, the authors provide a holistic overview of the current state of research.
Strategic social media use positively influences organizational goals such as the long-term accrual of social capital, and thus social media information governance has become an increasingly important organizational objective. It is particularly important for humanitarian nongovernmental organizations (HNGOs), whose work relies on accurate and timely information regarding socially altruistic behavior (donations, volunteerism, etc.). Despite the potential of social media for increasing social capital, tensions in governing social media information across an organization's different operational levels (regional, intermediate, and national) pose a difficult challenge. Prominent governance frameworks offer little guidance, as their focus on control and incremental policymaking is largely incompatible with the processes, roles, standards, and metrics needed for managing self-governing social media. This study offers a notion of dynamic and co-evolutionary process management of multi-level organizations as a means of conceptualizing social media information governance for the accrual of organizational social capital. Based on interviews with members of HNGOs, this study reveals tensions that emerge within eight focus areas of accruing social capital in multi-level organizations, explains how dynamic process management can ease those tensions, and proposes corresponding strategy recommendations.
Many international organisations (IOs) are currently challenged, yet are they also in decline? Despite much debate on the crisis of liberal international order, con-testation, loss of legitimacy, gridlock, pathologies and exiting member states, there is little research on IO decline. This article seeks to clarify this concept and argues that decline can be considered in absolute and relative terms. Absolute decline involves a decrease in the number of IOs and their authority, member-ship and output, whereas relative decline concerns a decrease in the centrality of IOs in international relations. Reviewing a wide range of indicators, this article argues that, whereas there is limited decline in absolute terms since 1945, there may well be important decline in relative terms. Relative decline is more difficult to measure, but to probe its significance this article presents data from speeches during the United Nations General Assembly General Debate. It shows that IOs were most often mentioned in 1996 and that there has been a decline since. These findings indicate that, whereas IOs might survive as institutions, they are decreasingly central to international relations.
Local laws on urban policy, i.e., ordinances directly affect our daily life in various ways (health, business etc.), yet in practice, for many citizens they remain impervious and complex. This article focuses on an approach to make urban policy more accessible and comprehensible to the general public and to government officials, while also addressing pertinent social media postings. Due to the intricacies of the natural language, ranging from complex legalese in ordinances to informal lingo in tweets, it is practical to harness human judgment here. To this end, we mine ordinances and tweets via reasoning based on commonsense knowledge so as to better account for pragmatics and semantics in the text. Ours is pioneering work in ordinance mining, and thus there is no prior labeled training data available for learning. This gap is filled by commonsense knowledge, a prudent choice in situations involving a lack of adequate training data. The ordinance mining can be beneficial to the public in fathoming policies and to officials in assessing policy effectiveness based on public reactions. This work contributes to smart governance, leveraging transparency in governing processes via public involvement. We focus significantly on ordinances contributing to smart cities, hence an important goal is to assess how well an urban region heads towards a smart city as per its policies mapping with smart city characteristics, and the corresponding public satisfaction.
Intuitively, strongly constraining contexts should lead to stronger probabilistic representations of sentences in memory. Encountering unexpected words could therefore be expected to trigger costlier shifts in these representations than expected words. However, psycholinguistic measures commonly used to study probabilistic processing, such as the N400 event-related potential (ERP) component, are sensitive to word predictability but not to contextual constraint. Some research suggests that constraint-related processing cost may be measurable via an ERP positivity following the N400, known as the anterior post-N400 positivity (PNP). The PNP is argued to reflect update of a sentence representation and to be distinct from the posterior P600, which reflects conflict detection and reanalysis. However, constraint-related PNP findings are inconsistent. We sought to conceptually replicate Federmeier et al. (2007) and Kuperberg et al. (2020), who observed that the PNP, but not the N400 or the P600, was affected by constraint at unexpected but plausible words. Using a pre-registered design and statistical approach maximising power, we demonstrated a dissociated effect of predictability and constraint: strong evidence for predictability but not constraint in the N400 window, and strong evidence for constraint but not predictability in the later window. However, the constraint effect was consistent with a P600 and not a PNP, suggesting increased conflict between a strong representation and unexpected input rather than greater update of the representation. We conclude that either a simple strong/weak constraint design is not always sufficient to elicit the PNP, or that previous PNP constraint findings could be an artifact of smaller sample size.
Introduction:
Decision making results not only from logical analyses, but seems to be further guided by the ability to perceive somatic information (interoceptive accuracy). Relations between interoceptive accuracy and decision making have been exclusively studied in adults and with regard to complex, uncertain situations (as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, IGT).
Methods:
In the present study, 1454 children (6-11 years) were examined at two time points (approximately 1 year apart) using an IGT as well as a delay-of-gratification task for sweets-items and toy-items. Interoceptive accuracy was measured using a child-adapted version of the Heartbeat Perception Task.
Results:
The present results revealed that children with higher, as compared to lower, interoceptive accuracy showed more advantageous choices in the IGT and delayed more sweets-items, but not toy-items, in a delay-of-gratification task at time point 2 but not at time point 1. However, no longitudinal relation between interoceptive accuracy and decision making 1 year later could be shown.
Discussion:
Results indicate that interoceptive accuracy relates to decision-making abilities in situations of varying complexity already in middle childhood, and that this link might consolidate across the examined 1-year period. Furthermore, the association of interoceptive accuracy and the delay of sweets-items might have implications for the regulation of body weight at a later age.