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OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
Several mechanisms are proposed to be part of the earthquake triggering process, including static stress interactions and dynamic stress transfer. Significant differences of these mechanisms are particularly expected in the spatial distribution of aftershocks. However, testing the different hypotheses is challenging because it requires the consideration of the large uncertainties involved in stress calculations as well as the appropriate consideration of secondary aftershock triggering which is related to stress changes induced by smaller pre- and aftershocks. In order to evaluate the forecast capability of different mechanisms, I take the effect of smaller--magnitude earthquakes into account by using the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model where the spatial probability distribution of direct aftershocks, if available, is correlated to alternative source information and mechanisms. Surface shaking, rupture geometry, and slip distributions are tested. As an approximation of the shaking level, ShakeMaps are used which are available in near real-time after a mainshock and thus could be used for first-order forecasts of the spatial aftershock distribution. Alternatively, the use of empirical decay laws related to minimum fault distance is tested and Coulomb stress change calculations based on published and random slip models. For comparison, the likelihood values of the different model combinations are analyzed in the case of several well-known aftershock sequences (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine, 2004 Parkfield). The tests show that the fault geometry is the most valuable information for improving aftershock forecasts. Furthermore, they reveal that static stress maps can additionally improve the forecasts of off--fault aftershock locations, while the integration of ground shaking data could not upgrade the results significantly. In the second part of this work, I focused on a procedure to test the information content of inverted slip models. This allows to quantify the information gain if this kind of data is included in aftershock forecasts. For this purpose, the ETAS model based on static stress changes, which is introduced in part one, is applied. The forecast ability of the models is systematically tested for several earthquake sequences and compared to models using random slip distributions. The influence of subfault resolution and segment strike and dip is tested. Some of the tested slip models perform very good, in that cases almost no random slip models are found to perform better. Contrastingly, for some of the published slip models, almost all random slip models perform better than the published slip model. Choosing a different subfault resolution hardly influences the result, as long the general slip pattern is still reproducible. Whereas different strike and dip values strongly influence the results depending on the standard deviation chosen, which is applied in the process of randomly selecting the strike and dip values.
We present observations from a continuous exposure of an ancient plate interface in the depth range of its former seismogenic zone in the central Alps of Europe related to Late Cretaceous-early Tertiary subduction and accretion of the South Penninic lower plate underneath the Adriatic upper plate. The material forming the exposed plate interface zone has experienced flow and fracturing over an extended period of time followed by syncollisional exhumation, thus reflecting a multistage evolution. Fabric formation and metamorphism, however, chiefly record the deformation conditions of the precollisional setting along the plate interface. We identify an unstable slip domain from pseudotachylytes occurring in the temperature range between 200 and 300 degrees C. This zone coincides with a domain of intense veining in the subduction melange with mineral growth into open cavities, indicating fast, possibly seismic, rupture. Evidence for transient near-lithostatic fluid pressure as well as brittle fractures competing with mylonitic shear zones continues into the region below the occurrence of pseudotachylytes, possibly reflecting a zone of conditionally stable slip. The zone above the unstable slip area is devoid of veins but displays ample evidence of fluid-assisted processes similar to the deeper zone: solution-precipitation creep and dehydration reactions in the melange matrix, hydration, and sealing of the base of the upper plate. Seismic rupture here is possibly expressed by ubiquitous localized deformation zones. We hypothesize that trenchward sealing of parts of the plate interface as well as reaction-enhanced destruction of upper plate permeability is an important component, localizing the unstable slip zone. This relation may result from the competition of the pervasive, presumably interseismic, pressure solution creep destroying permeability and building elevated fluid pressure until the strength threshold is reached with seismic failure.
The Frolikha Fan : a large Pleistocene glaciolacustrine outwash fan in northern Lake Baikal, Siberia
(1998)
This thesis work describes a new experimental method for the determination of Mode II (shear) fracture toughness, KIIC of rock and compares the outcome to results from Mode I (tensile) fracture toughness, KIC, testing using the International Society of Rock Mechanics Chevron-Bend method.Critical Mode I fracture growth at ambient conditions was studied by carrying out a series of experiments on a sandstone at different loading rates. The mechanical and microstructural data show that time- and loading rate dependent crack growth occurs in the test material at constant energy requirement.The newly developed set-up for determination of the Mode II fracture toughness is called the Punch-Through Shear test. Notches were drilled to the end surfaces of core samples. An axial load punches down the central cylinder introducing a shear load in the remaining rock bridge. To the mantle of the cores a confining pressure may be applied. The application of confining pressure favours the growth of Mode II fractures as large pressures suppress the growth of tensile cracks.Variation of geometrical parameters leads to an optimisation of the PTS- geometry. Increase of normal load on the shear zone increases KIIC bi-linear. High slope is observed at low confining pressures; at pressures above 30 MPa low slope increase is evident. The maximum confining pressure applied is 70 MPa. The evolution of fracturing and its change with confining pressure is described.The existence of Mode II fracture in rock is a matter of debate in the literature. Comparison of the results from Mode I and Mode II testing, mainly regarding the resulting fracture pattern, and correlation analysis of KIC and KIIC to physico-mechanical parameters emphasised the differences between the response of rock to Mode I and Mode II loading. On the microscale, neither the fractures resulting from Mode I the Mode II loading are pure mode fractures. On macroscopic scale, Mode I and Mode II do exist.
Here, we study the 3-D subduction initiation process induced by the interaction between a hot thermochemical mantle plume and oceanic lithosphere using thermo-mechanical viscoplastic finite difference marker-in-cell models. Our numerical modeling results show that self-sustaining subduction is induced by plume-lithosphere interaction when the plume is sufficiently buoyant, the oceanic lithosphere is sufficiently old and the plate is weak enough to allow the buoyant plume to. pass through it. Subduction initiation occurs following penetration of the lithosphere by the hot plume and the downward displacement of broken, nearly circular segments of lithosphere (proto-slabs) as a result of partially molten plume rocks overriding the proto-slabs. Our experiments show four different deformation regimes in response to plume-lithosphere interaction: a) self-sustaining subduction initiation, in which subduction becomes self-sustaining; b) frozen subduction initiation, in which subduction stops at shallow depths; c) slab break-off, in which the subducting circular slab breaks off soon after formation; and d) plume underplating, in which the plume does not pass through the lithosphere and instead spreads beneath it (i.e., failed subduction initiation). These regimes depend on several parameters, such as the size, composition, and temperature of the plume, the brittle/plastic strength and age of the oceanic lithosphere, and the presence/absence of lithospheric heterogeneities. The results show that subduction initiates and becomes self-sustaining when the lithosphere is older than 10 Myr and the non dimensional ratio of the plume buoyancy force and lithospheric strength above the plume is higher than approximately 2. The outcomes of our numerical experiments are applicable for subduction initiation in the modern and Precambrian Earth and for the origin of plume-related corona structures on Venus. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Initiation of subduction following the impingement of a hot buoyant mantle plume is one of the few scenarios that allow breaking the lithosphere and recycling a stagnant lid without requiring any preexisting weak zones. Here, we investigate factors controlling the number and shape of retreating subducting slabs formed by plume-lithosphere interaction. Using 3-D thermomechanical models we show that the deformation regime, which defines formation of single-slab or multi-slab subduction, depends on several parameters such as age of oceanic lithosphere, thickness of the crust and large-scale lithospheric extension rate. Our model results indicate that on present-day Earth multi-slab plume-induced subduction is initiated only if the oceanic lithosphere is relatively young (<30-40 Myr, but >10 Myr), and the crust has a typical thickness of 8 km. In turn, development of single-slab subduction is facilitated by older lithosphere and pre-imposed extensional stresses. In early Earth, plume-lithosphere interaction could have led to formation of either episodic short-lived circular subduction when the oceanic lithosphere was young or to multi-slab subduction when the lithosphere was old.
It has recently been demonstrated that the interaction of a mantle plume with sufficiently old oceanic lithosphere can initiate subduction. However, the existence of large lithospheric heterogeneities, such as a buoyant plateau, in proximity to a rising plume head may potentially hinder the formation of a new subduction zone. Here, we investigate this scenario by means of 3-D numerical thermomechanical modeling. We explore how plume-lithosphere interaction is affected by lithospheric age, relative location of plume head and plateau border, and the strength of the oceanic crust. Our numerical experiments suggest four different geodynamic regimes: (a) oceanic trench formation, (b) circular oceanic-plateau trench formation, (c) plateau trench formation, and (d) no trench formation. We show that regardless of the age and crustal strength of the oceanic lithosphere, subduction can initiate when the plume head is either below the plateau border or at a distance less than the plume radius from the plateau edge. Crustal heterogeneity facilitates subduction initiation of old oceanic lithosphere. High crustal strength hampers the formation of a new subduction zone when the plume head is located below a young lithosphere containing a thick and strong plateau. We suggest that plume-plateau interaction in the western margin of the Caribbean could have resulted in subduction initiation when the plume head impinged onto the oceanic lithosphere close to the border between plateau and oceanic crust.
Mantle Flow as a Trigger for Subduction Initiation: A Missing Element of the Wilson Cycle Concept
(2017)
The classical Wilson Cycle concept, describing repeated opening and closing of ocean basins, hypothesizes spontaneous conversion of passive continental margins into subduction zones. This process, however, is impeded by the high strength of passive margins, and it has never occurred in Cenozoic times. Here using thermomechanical models, we show that additional forcing, provided by mantle flow, which is induced by neighboring subduction zones and midmantle slab remnants, can convert a passive margin into a subduction zone. Models suggest that this is a long-term process, thus explaining the lack of Cenozoic examples. We speculate that new subduction zones may form in the next few tens of millions of years along the Argentine passive margin and the U.S. East Coast. Mantle suction force can similarly trigger subduction initiation along large oceanic fracture zones. We propose that new subduction zones will preferentially originate where subduction zones were active in the past, thus explaining the remarkable colocation of subduction zones during at least the last 400 Myr.
Initiation of subduction following the impingement of a hot buoyant mantle plume is one of the few scenarios that allow breaking the lithosphere and recycling a stagnant lid without requiring any preexisting weak zones. Here, we investigate factors controlling the number and shape of retreating subducting slabs formed by plume-lithosphere interaction. Using 3-D thermomechanical models we show that the deformation regime, which defines formation of single-slab or multi-slab subduction, depends on several parameters such as age of oceanic lithosphere, thickness of the crust and large-scale lithospheric extension rate. Our model results indicate that on present-day Earth multi-slab plume-induced subduction is initiated only if the oceanic lithosphere is relatively young (<30-40 Myr, but >10 Myr), and the crust has a typical thickness of 8 km. In turn, development of single-slab subduction is facilitated by older lithosphere and pre-imposed extensional stresses. In early Earth, plume-lithosphere interaction could have led to formation of either episodic short-lived circular subduction when the oceanic lithosphere was young or to multi-slab subduction when the lithosphere was old.
Pre-existing weakness zones in the lithosphere such as transform faults/fracture zones and extinct mid-oceanic ridges have been suggested to facilitate subduction initiation in an intra-oceanic environment. Here, we propose that the additional forcing coming from the mantle suction flow is required to trigger the conversion of a fracture zone/transform fault into a converging plate boundary. This suction flow can be induced either from the slab remnants of former converging plate boundaries or/and from slabs of neighbouring active subduction zones. Using 2-D coupled thermo-mechanical models, we show that a sufficiently strong mantle flow is able to convert a fracture zone/transform fault into a subduction zone. However, this process is feasible only if the fracture zone/transform fault is very close to the mid-oceanic ridge. Our numerical model results indicate that time of subduction initiation depends on the velocity, domain size and location of mantle suction flow and age of the oceanic plate.
Accretionary orogens are considered major sites of formation of juvenile continental crust. In the central and southern Andes this is contradicted by two observations: siliciclastic fills of Paleozoic basins in the central Andean segment of the accretionary Terra Australis Orogen consist almost exclusively of shales and mature sandstones; and magmatic rocks connected to the Famatinian (Ordovician) and Late Paleozoic magmatic arcs are predominantly felsic and characterized by significant crustal contamination and strongly unradiogenic Nd isotope compositions. Evidence of juvenile crustal additions is scarce. We present laser ablation (LA)-ICPMS U-Pb ages and LA-MC-ICPMS Hf isotope data of detrital zircons from seven Devonian to Permian turbidite sandstones incorporated into a Late Paleozoic accretionary wedge at the western margin of Gondwana in northern Chile. The combination with Nd whole-rock isotope data permits us to trace the evolution of the South American continental crust through several Proterozoic and Paleozoic orogenic cycles. The analyzed detrital zircon spectra reflect all Proterozoic orogenic cycles representing the step-wise evolution of the accretionary SW Amazonia Orogenic System between 2.0 and 0.9 Ga, followed by the Terra Australis Orogen between 0.9 and 0.25 Ga. The zircon populations are characterized by two prominent maxima reflecting input from Sunsas (Grenville) age magmatic rocks (1.2-0.9 Ga) and from the Ordovician to Silurian Famatinian magmatic arc (0.52-0.42 Ga). Grains of Devonian age are scarce or absent from the analyzed zircon populations. The Hf isotopic compositions of selected dated zircons at the time of their crystallization (epsilon Hf-(T); T = 3.3-0.25 Ga) vary between -18 and +11. All sandstones have a significant juvenile component; between 20 and 50% of the zircons from each sedimentary rock have positive epsilon Hf-(T) and can be considered juvenile. The majority of the juvenile grains have Hf-depleted mantle model ages (Hf T-DM) between 1.55 and 0.8 Ga. the time of the Rondonia-San Ignacio and Sunsas orogenic events on the Amazonia craton. The corresponding whole-rock epsilon Nd-(T) values fot these same rocks are between -8 and -3 indicating a mixture of older evolved and juvenile sources. Nd-depleted mantle model ages (Nd T-DM*) are between 1.5 and 1.2 Ga and coincide broadly with the zircon Hf model ages. Our data indicate that the Paleo- and Mesoproterozoic SW Amazonia Orogenic System, and the subsequent Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic Terra Australis Orogen in the region of the central and southern Andes, developed following two markedly different patterns of accretionary orogenic crustal evolution. The SW Amazonia Orogenic System developed by southwestward growth over approximately 1.1 Ga through a combination of accretion of juvenile material and crustal recycling typical of the extensional or retreating mode of accretionary orogens. In contrast, the central Andean segment of the Terra Australis Orogen evolved from 0.9 to 0.25 Ga in the compressional or advancing mode in a relatively fixed position without the accretion of oceanic crustal units or large scale input of juvenile material to the orogenic crust. Here, recycling mainly of Mesoproterozoic continental crust has been the dominant process of crustal evolution. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo-Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed 'mega-monsoon') that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2 center dot 4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red-green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.
Linking deep seismic profiles with regional-scale gravity inversion is a powerful tool to deduce the architecture of rifted margins and their structural evolution. Here we map upper and lower crustal thicknesses of the northern South China Sea (SCS) margin in order to investigate the occurrence of depth-dependent crustal extension from the proximal to the distal margin. By comparing upper and lower crustal stretching factors, we find that the northern margin of the SCS is segmented in three parts: (1) sedimentary basins where upper crust is stretched more than lower crust, (2) distal margin where lower crust is stretched more than upper crust, (3) mostly proximal margin regions where the two layers have similar stretching factors. Our results suggest that sedimentary basins and distal margin prominently feature depth-dependent extension, however accommodated by different processes. While differential thinning within sedimentary basins appears to be governed by lateral pressure variations inducing lower crustal flow, we suggest the distal margin to be affected by a combination of mantle flow-induced lower crustal shearing and sequential fault activity during crustal hyper-extension.
Antarctic glacier forfields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. The Antarctic continent shows microbial community development as a natural laboratory because of its special environment, geographic isolation and little anthropogenic influence. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and accessible for microbial colonisation. This study aims to understand the structure and development of glacier forefield bacterial communities, especially how soil parameters impact the microorganisms and how those are adapted to the extreme conditions of the habitat. To this effect, a combination of cultivation experiments, molecular, geophysical and geochemical analysis was applied to examine two glacier forfields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Culture-independent molecular tools such as terminal restriction length polymorphism (T-RFLP), clone libraries and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) were used to determine bacterial diversity and distribution. Cultivation of yet unknown species was carried out to get insights in the physiology and adaptation of the microorganisms. Adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were studied by determining changes of the cell membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) inventory of an isolated bacterium in response to temperature and pH fluctuations and by measuring enzyme activity at low temperature in environmental soil samples. The two studied glacier forefields are extreme habitats characterised by low temperatures, low water availability and small oligotrophic nutrient pools and represent sites of different bacterial succession in relation to soil parameters. The investigated sites showed microbial succession at an early step of soil formation near the ice tongue in comparison to closely located but rather older and more developed soil from the forefield. At the early step the succession is influenced by a deglaciation-dependent areal shift of soil parameters followed by a variable and prevalently depth-related distribution of the soil parameters that is driven by the extreme Antarctic conditions. The dominant taxa in the glacier forefields are Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi. The connection of soil characteristics with bacterial community structure showed that soil parameter and soil formation along the glacier forefield influence the distribution of certain phyla. In the early step of succession the relative undifferentiated bacterial diversity reflects the undifferentiated soil development and has a high potential to shift according to past and present environmental conditions. With progressing development environmental constraints such as water or carbon limitation have a greater influence. Adapting the culturing conditions to the cold and oligotrophic environment, the number of culturable heterotrophic bacteria reached up to 108 colony forming units per gram soil and 148 isolates were obtained. Two new psychrotolerant bacteria, Herbaspirillum psychrotolerans PB1T and Chryseobacterium frigidisoli PB4T, were characterised in detail and described as novel species in the family of Oxalobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae, respectively. The isolates are able to grow at low temperatures tolerating temperature fluctuations and they are not specialised to a certain substrate, therefore they are well-adapted to the cold and oligotrophic environment. The adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were analysed in environmental samples and cultures focussing on extracellular enzyme activity at low temperature and PLFA analyses. Extracellular phosphatases (pH 11 and pH 6.5), β-glucosidase, invertase and urease activity were detected in the glacier forefield soils at low temperature (14°C) catalysing the conversion of various compounds providing necessary substrates and may further play a role in the soil formation and total carbon turnover of the habitat. The PLFA analysis of the newly isolated species C. frigidisoli showed that the cold-adapted strain develops different strategies to maintain the cell membrane function under changing environmental conditions by altering the PLFA inventory at different temperatures and pH values. A newly discovered fatty acid, which was not found in any other microorganism so far, significantly increased at decreasing temperature and low pH and thus plays an important role in the adaption of C. frigidisoli. This work gives insights into the diversity, distribution and adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities in oligotrophic cold-affected soils and shows that Antarctic glacier forefields are suitable model systems to study bacterial colonisation in connection to soil formation.
The Younger Dryas event, which began approximately 12,900 years ago, was a period of rapid cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by large-scale reorganizations of patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation(1-3). Environmental changes during this period have been documented by both proxy-based reconstructions(3) and model simulations(4), but there is currently no consensus on the exact mechanisms of onset, stabilization or termination of the Younger Dryas(5-8). Here we present high-resolution records from two sediment cores obtained from Lake Krakenes in western Norway and the Nordic seas. Multiple proxies from Lake Krakenes are indicative of rapid alternations between glacial growth and melting during the later Younger Dryas. Meanwhile, reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity from the Nordic seas show an alternation between sea-ice cover and the influx of warm, salty North Atlantic waters. We suggest that the influx of warm water enabled the westerly wind systems to drift northward, closer to their present-day positions. The winds thus brought relatively warm maritime air to Northern Europe, resulting in rising temperatures and the melting of glaciers. Subsequent input of this fresh meltwater into the ocean spurred the formation of sea ice, which forced the westerly winds back to the south, cooling Northern Europe. We conclude that rapid alternations between these two states immediately preceded the termination of the Younger Dryas and the permanent transition to an interglacial state.
Aiming at the stimulation of intrinsic microbial activity, pulses of pure oxygen or pressurized air were recurrently injected into groundwater polluted with chlorobenzene. To achieve well-controlled conditions and intensive sampling, a large, vertical underground tank was filled with the local unconfined sandy aquifer material. In the course of two individual gas injections, one using pure oxygen and one using pressurized air, the mass transfer of individual gas species between trapped gas phase and groundwater was studied. Field data on the dissolved gas composition in the groundwater were combined with a kinetic model on gas dissolution and transport in porous media. Phase mass transfer of individual gas components caused a temporary enrichment of nitrogen, and to a lower degree of methane, in trapped gas leading to the formation of excess dissolved nitrogen levels downgradient from the dissolving gas phase. By applying a novel gas sampling method for dissolved gases in groundwater it was shown that dissolved nitrogen can be used as a partitioning tracer to indicate complete gas dissolution in porous media.
Thirteen N-butylpyridinium salts, including three monometallic [C4Py](2)[MCl4], nine bimetallic [C4Py](2)[(M1-xMxCl4)-M-a-Cl-b] and one trimetallic compound [C4Py](2)[(M1-y-zMyMz (c) Cl4)-M-a-M-b] (M=Co, Cu, Mn; x=0.25, 0.50 or 0.75 and y=z=0.33), were synthesized and their structure and thermal and electrochemical properties were studied. All compounds are ionic liquids (ILs) with melting points between 69 and 93 degrees C. X-ray diffraction proves that all ILs are isostructural. The conductivity at room temperature is between 10(-4) and 10(-8) S cm(-1). Some Cu-based ILs reach conductivities of 10(-2) S cm(-1), which is, however, probably due to IL dec. This correlates with the optical bandgap measurements indicating the formation of large bandgap semiconductors. At elevated temperatures approaching the melting points, the conductivities reach up to 1.47x10(-1) S cm(-1) at 70 degrees C. The electrochemical stability windows of the ILs are between 2.5 and 3.0 V.
Fifteen N-butylpyridinium salts - five monometallic [C4Py](2)[MBr4] and ten bimetallic [C4Py](2)[(M0.5M0.5Br4)-M-a-Br-b] (M=Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn) - were synthesized, and their structures and thermal and electrochemical properties were studied. All the compounds are ionic liquids (ILs) with melting points between 64 and 101 degrees C. Powder and single-crystal X-ray diffraction show that all ILs are isostructural. The electrochemical stability windows of the ILs are between 2 and 3 V. The conductivities at room temperature are between 10(-5) and 10(-6) S cm(-1). At elevated temperatures, the conductivities reach up to 10(-4) S cm(-1) at 70 degrees C. The structures and properties of the current bromide-based ILs were also compared with those of previous examples using chloride ligands, which illustrated differences and similarities between the two groups of ILs.
Foreland-basin systems are excellent archives to decipher the feedbacks between surface and tectonic processes in orogens. The sedimentary architecture of a foreland-basin system reflects the balance between tectonic subsidence causing long-term accommodation space and sediment influx corresponding to efficiency of erosion and mass-redistribution processes. In order to explore the effects of climatic and tectonic forcing in such a system, I investigated the Oligo-Miocene foreland-basin sediments of the southern Alborz mountains, an intracontinental orogen in northern Iran, related to the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision. This work includes absolute dating methods such as 40Ar/39Ar and zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronology, magnetostratigraphy, sedimentological analysis, sandstone and conglomerate provenance study, carbon and oxygen isotope analysis, and clay mineralogy study. Results show a systematic correlation between coarsening-upward cycles and sediment accumulation rates in the basin on 105 to 106yr time scales. During thrust loading phases, the coarse-grained fraction supplied by the uplifting range is stored in the proximal part of the basin (sedimentary facies retrogradation), while fine-grained sediments are deposited in distal sectors. Variations in sediment provenance during these phases of enhanced tectonic activity give evidence for erosional unroofing phases and/or drainage-reorganization events. In addition, enhanced tectonic activity promoted the growth of topography and associated orographic barrier effects, as demonstrated by sedimentologic indicators and the analysis of stable C and O isotopes from calcareous paleosols and lacustrine/palustrine samples. Extensive progradation of coarse-grained deposits occurs during phases of decreased subsidence, when the coarse-grained fraction supplied by the uplifting range cannot be completely stored in the proximal part of the basin. In this environment, a reduction in basin subsidence is associated with laterally stacked fluvial channel deposits, and is related to intra-foreland uplift, as documented by growth strata, tectonic tilting, and sediment reworking. Increase in sediment accumulation rate associated with progradation of vertically-stacked coarse-grained fluvial channels also occurs. Paleosol O-isotope data shows that this increase is related to wetter climatic phases, suggesting that surface processes are more efficient and exhumation rates increase, giving rise to a positive feedback. Furthermore, isotopic and sedimentologic data show that starting from 10-9 Ma, climate became less arid with an increase in seasonality of precipitation. Because important changes were also recorded in the Mediterranean Sea and Asia at that time, the evidence for climatic variability observed in the Alborz mountains most likely reflects changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. This study has additional implications for the evolution of the Alborz mountains and the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. At the orogenic scale, the locus of deformation did not move steadily southward, but stepped forward and backward since Oligocene time. In particular, from ~ 17.5 to 6.2 Ma the orogen grew by a combination of frontal accretion and wedge-internal deformation on time scales of ca. 0.7 to 2 m.y. Moreover, the provenance data suggest that prior to 10-9 Ma the shortening direction changed from NW-SE to NNE-SSW, in agreement with structural data. On the scale of the entire collision zone, the evolution of the studied basins and adjacent mountain ranges suggests a new geodynamic model for the evolution of the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. Numerous sedimentary basins in the Alborz mountains and in other locations of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone record a change from a tensional (transtensional) to a compressional (transpressional) tectonic setting by ~ 36 Ma. I interpret this to reflect the onset of subduction of the stretched Arabian continental lithosphere beneath central Iran, leading to moderate plate coupling and lower- and upper-plate deformation (soft continental collision). The increase in deformation rates in the southern Alborz mountains from ~ 17.5 Ma suggests that significant upper-plate deformation must have started by the early Miocene most likely in response to an increase in degree of plate coupling. I suggest that this was related to the subduction of thicker Arabian continental lithosphere and the consequent onset of hard continental collision. This model reconciles the apparent lag time of 15-20 m.y between the late Eocene to early Oligocene age for the initial Arabia-Eurasia continental collision and the onset of widespread deformation across the collision zone to the north in early to late Miocene time.
The removal, redistribution, and transient storage of sediments in tectonically active mountain belts is thought to exert a first-order control on shallow crustal stresses, fault activity, and hence on the spatiotemporal pattern of regional deformation processes. Accordingly, sediment loading and unloading cycles in intermontane sedimentary basins may inhibit or promote intrabasinal faulting, respectively, but unambiguous evidence for this potential link has been elusive so far. Here we combine 2D numerical experiments that simulate contractional deformation in a broken-foreland setting (i.e., a foreland where shortening is diachronously absorbed by spatially disparate, reverse faults uplifting basement blocks) with field data from intermontane basins in the NW Argentine Andes. Our modeling results suggest that thicker sedimentary fills (>0.7-1.0 km) may suppress basinal faulting processes, while thinner fills (<0.7 km) tend to delay faulting. Conversely, the removal of sedimentary loads via fluvial incision and basin excavation promotes renewed intrabasinal faulting. These results help to better understand the tectono-sedimentary history of intermontane basins that straddle the eastern border of the Andean Plateau in northwestern Argentina. For example, the Santa Maria and the Humahuaca basins record intrabasinal deformation during or after sediment unloading, while the Quebrada del Toro Basin reflects the suppression of intrabasinal faulting due to loading by coarse conglomerates. We conclude that sedimentary loading and unloading cycles may exert a fundamental control on spatiotemporal deformation patterns in intermontane basins of tectonically active broken forelands. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Sedimentary basins in the interior of orogenic plateaus can provide unique insights into the early history of plateau evolution and related geodynamic processes. The northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone offer the unique possibility to study middle-late Miocene terrestrial clastic and volcaniclastic sediments that allow assessing the nascent stages of collisional plateau formation. In particular, these sedimentary archives allow investigating several debated and poorly understood issues associated with the long-term evolution of the Iranian Plateau, including the regional spatio-temporal characteristics of sedimentation and deformation and the mechanisms of plateau growth. We document that middle-late Miocene crustal shortening and thickening processes led to the growth of a basement-cored range (Takab Range Complex) in the interior of the plateau. This triggered the development of a foreland-basin (Great Pari Basin) to the east between 16.5 and 10.7Ma. By 10.7Ma, a fast progradation of conglomerates over the foreland strata occurred, most likely during a decrease in flexural subsidence triggered by rock uplift along an intraforeland basement-cored range (Mahneshan Range Complex). This was in turn followed by the final incorporation of the foreland deposits into the orogenic system and ensuing compartmentalization of the formerly contiguous foreland into several intermontane basins. Overall, our data suggest that shortening and thickening processes led to the outward and vertical growth of the northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau starting from the middle Miocene. This implies that mantle-flow processes may have had a limited contribution toward building the Iranian Plateau in NW Iran.
This study concerns the Quantitative Phase Analysis (QPA) of historical bricks coming from the complex of the Great Palace of the Byzantine Emperors in Istanbul. The studied samples are characterised by different chemical compositions (low and high calcium content), variable firing temperatures and different amounts of soluble salts as damage products. In the low-Ca samples, the decrease of the phyllosilicate content (from 23.4 to 6.9 wt%) is associated to the increase of the amorphous fraction (from 24 to 48%). This clear negative correlation between the phyllosilicate content and the amorphous fraction indicates that in low-Ca systems vitrification processes are overwhelming with respect to nucleation and recrystallisation processes. By contrast, high-Ca samples present newly formed Ca(Mg) silicates (diopside from 5.7 to 27.2%; anorthite from 1.4 to 8.7%) and aluminium silicates (gehlenite only in two samples, 6.2 and 7.7%) associated to the decrease of quartz (from 27.7 to 11.5%), phyllosilicate (from 6.5% until complete break down) and amorphous (from 30 to 14%) phase fractions. These findings support the role played by the CaO(MgO) content deriving from carbonates decomposition which reacts with Al2O3 and SiO2 oxides from dehydroxylated clay minerals and quartz grains. The above results have been obtained by X-ray powder diffraction data using the combined Rietveld refinement - internal standard method in order to estimate both the crystalline and the amorphous phase fractions. In addition, the coexistence of two distinct plagioclases in high-Ca samples was modelled as follows: a primary albite, which tends to incorporate Ca during the firing process as demonstrated by the increasing of gamma crystallographic angle, and a newly formed anorthite. Finally, by difference between the X-ray fluorescence data and the chemical compositions inferred by QPA, it proved possible to roughly estimate the residual chemical composition attributable to the amorphous fraction. On the basis of our data, we believe that Rietveld refinement combined with the internal standard method represent a powerful tool to better characterise complex polycrystalline and amorphous mixture as in the case of historical bricks
The idea that climatically modulated erosion may impact orogenic processes has challenged geoscientists for decades. Although modeling studies and physical calculations have provided a solid theoretical basis supporting this interaction, to date, field-based work has produced inconclusive results. The central-western Alborz Mountains in the northern sectors of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone constitute a promising area to explore these potential feedbacks. This region is characterized by asymmetric precipitation superimposed on an orogen with a history of spatiotemporal changes in exhumation rates, deformation patterns, and prolonged, km-scale base-level changes. Our analysis suggests that despite the existence of a strong climatic gradient at least since 17.5 Ma, the early orogenic evolution (from similar to 36 to 9-6 Ma) was characterized by decoupled orographic precipitation and tectonics. In particular, faster exhumation and sedimentation along the more arid southern orogenic flank point to a north-directed accretionary flux and underthrusting of Central Iran. Conversely, from 6 to 3 Ma, erosion rates along the northern orogenic flank became higher than those in the south, where they dropped to minimum values. This change occurred during a similar to 3-Myr-long, km-scale base-level lowering event in the Caspian Sea. We speculate that mass redistribution processes along the northern flank of the Alborz and presumably across all mountain belts adjacent to the South Caspian Basin and more stable areas of the Eurasian plate increased the sediment load in the basin and ultimately led to the underthrusting of the Caspian Basin beneath the Alborz Mountains. This underthrusting in turn triggered a new phase of northward orogenic expansion, transformed the wetter northern flank into a new pro-wedge, and led to the establishment of apparent steady-state conditions along the northern orogenic flank (i.e., rock uplift equal to erosion rates). Conversely, the southern mountain front became the retro-wedge and experienced limited tectonic activity. These observations overall raise the possibility that mass-distribution processes during a pronounced erosion phase driven by base-level changes may have contributed to the inferred regional plate-tectonic reorganization of the northern Arabia-Eurasia collision during the last similar to 5 Ma. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Central Pontides of N Turkey represents a mobile orogenic belt of the southern Eurasian margin that experienced several phases of exhumation associated with the consumption of different branches of the Neo-Tethys Ocean and the amalgamation of continental domains. Our new low-temperature thermochronology data help to constrain the timing of these episodes, providing new insights into associated geodynamic processes. In particular, our data suggest that exhumation occurred at (1) similar to 110 to 90Ma, most likely during tectonic accretion and exhumation of metamorphic rocks from the subduction zone; (2) from similar to 60 to 40Ma, during the collision of the Kirehir and Anatolide-Tauride microcontinental domains with the Eurasian margin; (3) from similar to 0 to 25Ma, either during the early stages of the Arabia-Eurasia collision (soft collision) when the Arabian passive margin reached the trench, implying 70 to 530km of subduction of the Arabian passive margin, or during a phase of trench advance predating hard collision at similar to 20Ma; and (4) similar to 11Ma to the present, during transpression associated with the westward motion of Anatolia. Our findings document the punctuated nature of fault-related exhumation, with episodes of fast cooling followed by periods of slow cooling or subsidence, the role of inverted normal faults in controlling the Paleogene exhumation pattern, and of the North Anatolian Fault in dictating the most recent pattern of exhumation.
The southern foreland basin of the Alborz Mountains of northern Iran is characterized by an approximately 7.3-km-thick sequence of Miocene sedimentary rocks, constituting three basin-wde coarsening-upward units spanning a period of 10(6)years. We assess available magnetostratigraphy, paleoclimatic reconstructions, stratal architecture, records of depositional environments, and sediment-provenance data to characterize the relationships between tectonically-generated accommodation space (A) and sediment supply (S). Our analysis allows an inversion of the stratigraphy for particular forcing mechanisms, documenting causal relationships, and providing a basis to decipher the relative contributions of tectonics and climate (inferred changes in precipitation) in controlling sediment supply to the foreland basin. Specifically, A/S>1, typical of each basal unit (17.5-16.0, 13.8-13.1 and 10.3-9.6Ma), is associated with sharp facies retrogradation and reflects substantial tectonic subsidence. Within these time intervals, arid climatic conditions, changes in sediment provenance, and accelerated exhumation in the orogen suggest that sediment supply was most likely driven by high uplift rates. Conversely, A/S<1 (13.8 and 13.8-11Ma, units 1, and 2) reflects facies progradation during a sharp decline in tectonic subsidence caused by localized intra-basinal uplift. During these time intervals, climate continued to be arid and exhumation active, suggesting that sediment supply was again controlled by tectonics. A/S<1, at 11-10.3Ma and 9-6-7.6Ma (and possibly 6.2; top of units 2 and 3), is also associated with two episodes of extensive progradation, but during wetter phases. The first episode appears to have been linked to a pulse in sediment supply driven by an increase in precipitation. The second episode reflects a balance between a climatically-induced increase in sediment supply and a reduction of subsidence through the incorporation of the proximal foreland into the orogenic wedge. This in turn caused an expansion of the catchment and a consequent further increase in sediment supply.
A poorly understood lag time of 15-20 m.y. exists between the initial Arabia-Eurasia continental collision in late Eocene to early Oligocene time and the acceleration of tectonic and sedimentary processes across the collision zone in the early to late Miocene. The late Eocene to Miocene-Pliocene clastic and shallow-marine sedimentary rocks of the Kond, Eyvanekey, and Semnan Basins in the Alborz Mountains (northern Iran) offer the possibility to track the evolution of this orogen in the framework of collision processes. A transition from volcaniclastic submarine deposits to shallow-marine evaporites and terrestrial sediments occurred shortly after 36 Ma in association with reversals in sediment provenance, strata tilting, and erosional unroofing. These events followed the termination of subduction arc magmatism and marked a changeover from an extensional to a contractional regime in response to initiation of continental collision with the subduction of stretched Arabian lithosphere. This early stage of collision produced topographic relief associated with shallow foreland basins, suggesting that shortening and tectonic loading occurred at low rates. Starting from the early Miocene (17.5 Ma), flexural subsidence in response to foreland basin initiation occurred. Fast sediment accumulation rates and erosional unroofing trends point to acceleration of shortening by the early Miocene. We suggest that the lag time between the initiation of continental collision (36 Ma) and the acceleration of regional deformation (20-17.5 Ma) reflects a two-stage collision process, involving the "soft" collision of stretched lithosphere at first and "hard" collision following the arrival of unstretched Arabian continental litho sphere in the subduction zone.
With this paper, we assess the present-day conductive thermal field of the Glueckstadt Graben in NW Germany that is characterized by large salt walls and diapirs structuring the graben fill. We use a finite element method to calculate the 3D steady-state conductive thermal field based on a lithosphere-scale 3D structural model that resolves the first-order structural characteristics of the graben and its underlying lithosphere. Model predictions are validated against measured temperatures in six deep wells. Our investigations show that the interaction of thickness distributions and thermal rock properties of the different geological layers is of major importance for the distribution of temperatures in the deep subsurface of the Glueckstadt Graben. However, the local temperatures may result from the superposed effects of different controlling factors. Especially, the upper sedimentary part of the model exhibits huge lateral temperature variations, which correlate spatially with the shape of the thermally highly conductive Permian salt layer. Variations in thickness and geometry of the salt cause two major effects, which provoke considerable lateral temperature variations for a given depth. (1) The "chimney effect" causes more efficient heat transport within salt diapirs. As a consequence positive thermal anomalies develop in the upper part and above salt structures, where the latter are covered by much less conductive sediments. In contrast, negative thermal anomalies are noticeable underneath salt structures. (2) The "thermal blanketing effect" is caused by thermally low conductive sediments that provoke the local storage of heat where these insulating sediments are present. The latter effect leads to both local and regional thermal anomalies. Locally, this translates to higher temperatures where salt margin synclines are filled with thick insulating clastic sediments. For the regional anomalies the cumulative insulating effects of the entire sediment fill results in a long-wavelength variation of temperatures in response to heat refraction effects caused by the contrast between insulating sediments and highly conductive crystalline crust. Finally, the longest wavelength of temperature variations is caused by the depth position of the isothermal lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary defining the regional variations of the overall geothermal gradient. We find that a conductive thermal model predicts observed temperatures reasonably well for five of the six available wells, whereas the steady-state conductive approach appears not to be valid for the sixth well.
Intracontinental deformation usually is a result of tectonic forces associated with distant plate collisions. In general, the evolution of mountain ranges and basins in this environment is strongly controlled by the distribution and geometries of preexisting structures. Thus, predictive models usually fail in forecasting the deformation evolution in these kinds of settings. Detailed information on each range and basin-fill is vital to comprehend the evolution of intracontinental mountain belts and basins. In this dissertation, I have investigated the complex Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the western Tien Shan in Central Asia, which is one of the most active intracontinental ranges in the world. The work presented here combines a broad array of datasets, including thermo- and geochronology, paleoenvironmental interpretations, sediment provenance and subsurface interpretations in order to track changes in tectonic deformation. Most of the identified changes are connected and can be related to regional-scale processes that governed the evolution of the western Tien Shan.
The NW-SE trending Talas-Fergana fault (TFF) separates the western from the central Tien Shan and constitutes a world-class example of the influence of preexisting anisotropies on the subsequent structural development of a contractile orogen. While to the east most of ranges and basins have a sub-parallel E-W trend, the triangular-shaped Fergana basin forms a substantial feature in the western Tien Shan morphology with ranges on all three sides. In this thesis, I present 55 new thermochronologic ages (apatite fission track and zircon (U-Th)/He)) used to constrain exhumation histories of several mountain ranges in the western Tien Shan. At the same time, I analyzed the Fergana basin-fill looking for progressive changes in sedimentary paleoenvironments, source areas and stratal geometrical configurations in the subsurface and outcrops.
The data presented in this thesis suggests that low cooling rates (<1°C Myr-1), calm depositional environments, and low depositional rates (<10 m Myr-1) were widely distributed across the western Tien Shan, describing a quiescent tectonic period throughout the Paleogene. Increased cooling rates in the late Cenozoic occurred diachronously and with variable magnitudes in different ranges. This rapid cooling stage is interpreted to represent increased erosion caused by active deformation and constrains the onset of Cenozoic deformation in the western Tien Shan. Time-temperature histories derived from the northwestern Tien Shan samples show an increase in cooling rates by ~25 Ma. This event is correlated with a synchronous pulse
iv
in the South Tien Shan. I suggest that strike-slip motion along the TFF commenced at the Oligo-Miocene boundary, facilitating CCW rotation of the Fergana basin and enabling exhumation of the linked horsetail splays. Higher depositional rates (~150 m Myr-1) in the Oligo-Miocene section (Massaget Fm.) of the Fergana basin suggest synchronous deformation in the surrounding ranges. The central Alai Range also experienced rapid cooling around this time, suggesting that the onset of intramontane basin fragmentation and isolation is coeval. These results point to deformation starting simultaneously in the late Oligocene – early Miocene in geographically distant mountain ranges. I suggest that these early uplifts are controlled by reactivated structures (like the TFF), which are probably the frictionally weakest and most-suitably oriented for accommodating and transferring N-S horizontal shortening along the western Tien Shan.
Afterwards, in the late Miocene (~10 Ma), a period of renewed rapid cooling affected the Tien Shan and most mountain ranges and inherited structures started to actively deform. This episode is widely distributed and an increase in exhumation is interpreted in most of the sampled ranges. Moreover, the Pliocene section in the basin subsurface shows the higher depositional rates (>180 m Myr-1) and higher energy facies. The deformation and exhumation increase further contributed to intramontane basin partitioning. Overall, the interpretation is that the Tien Shan and much of Central Asia suffered a global increase in the rate of horizontal crustal shortening. Previously, stress transfer along the rigid Tarim block or Pamir indentation has been proposed to account for Himalayan hinterland deformation. However, the extent of the episode requires a different and broader geodynamic driver.
Sedimentological, provenance, and detrital thermochronological results for basin fill at the modern deformation front of the northern Andes (6 degrees N latitude) provide a long-term, Eocene to Pliocene record of foreland-basin sedimentation along the Eastern Cordillera !Janos basin boundary in Colombia. Lithofacies assemblages and paleocurrent orientations in the upward-coarsening, 5-km-thick succession of the Nunchia syncline reveal a systematic shift from craton-derived, shallow-marine distal foreland (back-bulge) accumulation in the Mirador Formation, to orogen-sourced, deltaic, and coastalinfluenced sedimentation of the distal to medial foreland (foredeep) in the Carbonera and Leon Formations, to anastomosing fluvial and distributive braided fluvial megafan systems of the proximal foreland (foredeep to wedge-top) basin in the lower and upper Guayabo Formation. These changes in depositional processes and sediment dispersal are supported by up-section variations in detrital zircon U-Pb and (U-Th)/He ages that record exhumation of evolving, compartmentalized sediment source areas in the Eastern Cordillera. The data are interpreted in terms of a progressive eastward advance in foldand-thrust deformation, with late Eocene Oligocene deformation in the axial zone of the Eastern Cordillera along the western edge of Floresta basin (Soapaga thrust), early Miocene reactivation (inversion) of the eastern margin of the Mesozoic rift system (Pajarito and Guaicaramo thrusts), and middle late Miocene propagation of a footwall shortcut fault (Vopal thrust) that created the Nunchia syncline in a wedge-top (piggyback) setting of the eastern foothills along the transition from the Eastern Cordillera to Harms foreland basin. Collectively, the data presented here for the frontal Eastern Cordillera define a general in-sequence pattern of eastwardadvancing fold-and-thrust deformation during Cenozoic east-west shortening in the Colombian Andes.
The origins and development of the arid and highly seasonal steppe-desert biome in Central Asia, the largest of its kind in the world, remain largely unconstrained by existing records. It is unclear how Cenozoic climatic, geological, and biological forces, acting at diverse spatial and temporal scales, shaped Central Asian ecosystems through time. Our synthesis shows that the Central Asian steppe-desert has existed since at least Eocene times but experienced no less than two regime shifts, one at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and one in the mid-Miocene. These shifts separated three successive "stable states," each characterized by unique floral and faunal structures. Past responses to disturbance in the Asian steppe-desert imply that modern ecosystems are unlikely to recover their present structures and diversity if forced into a new regime. This is of concern for Asian steppes today, which are being modified for human use and lost to desertification at unprecedented rates.
Groundwater recharge (GWR) is one of the most challenging water fluxes to estimate, as it relies on observed data that are often limited in many developing countries.
This study developed an innovative water budget method using satellite products for estimating the spatially distributed GWR at monthly and annual scales in tropical wet sedimentary regions despite cloudy conditions.
The distinctive features proposed in this study include the capacity to address 1) evapotranspiration estimations in tropical wet regions frequently overlaid by substantial cloud cover; and 2) seasonal root-zone water storage estimations in sedimentary regions prone to monthly variations.
The method also utilises satellite-based information of the precipitation and surface runoff. The GWR was estimated and validated for the hydrologically contrasting years 2016 and 2017 over a tropical wet sedimentary region located in North-eastern Brazil, which has substantial potential for groundwater abstraction.
This study showed that applying a cloud-cleaning procedure based on monthly compositions of biophysical data enables the production of a reasonable proxy for evapotranspiration able to estimate groundwater by the water budget method.
The resulting GWR rates were 219 (2016) and 302 (2017) mm yr(-1), showing good correlations (CC = 0.68 to 0.83) and slight underestimations (PBIAS =-13 to-9%) when compared with the referenced estimates obtained by the water table fluctuation method for 23 monitoring wells. Sensitivity analysis shows that water storage changes account for +19% to-22% of our monthly evaluation.
The satellite-based approach consistently demonstrated that the consideration of cloud-cleaned evapotranspiration and root-zone soil water storage changes are essential for a proper estimation of spatially distributed GWR in tropical wet sedimentary regions because of their weather seasonality and cloudy conditions.
The lack of process-based classification procedures may lead to unrealistic hyetograph design due to complex oscillation of rainfall depths when assimilated at high temporal resolutions. Four consecutive years of sub-hourly rainfall data were assimilated in three study areas (Guaraira, GEB, Sao Joao do Cariri, CEB, and Aiuaba, AEB) under distinct climates (very hot semi-arid and tropical wet). This study aimed to define rainfall events (for Minimum Inter-event Time, MIT, and Minimum Rainfall Depth, MRD, equal to 30 min and 1.016 mm, respectively), classify their hyetograph types (rectangular, R, unimodal with left-skewed, UL, right-skewed, UR, and centred peaks, UC, bimodal, B, and shapeless, SL), and compare their key rainfall properties (frequency, duration, depth, rate and peak). A rain pulse aggregation process allowed for reshaping SL-events for six different time spans varying from 2 to 30 min. The results revealed that the coastal area held predominantly R-events (64% events and 49% rainfall depth), in western semi-arid prevailed UL-events (57% events and 63% rainfall depth), whereas in eastern semi-arid mostly were R-events (61% events and 30% rainfall depth) similar to coastal area. It is concluded that each cloud formation type had important effects on hyetograph properties, differentiating them even within the same climate.
The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geological structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, translithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north-south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa-Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8mm yr(-1) in a largely trench-normal direction except near eastern Crete where variably oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy-Pliny-Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation.
In Germany, the irrigation sector accounts for only 1% of water use. In recent years, however, this sector has attracted more attention due to the occurrence of severe drought periods. Irrigation scheduling systems could support adaptation strategies but little is known about current providers, performance and users. In this study we aimed to depict the current situation of the existence and functioning of irrigation scheduling systems available in Germany. Six methods were identified and assessed based on direct interviews with end-users and a comparative analysis. The results showed a positive feedback from the users. However, the recommendations were rarely implemented, while only the seasonal irrigation requirement was considered to support actual water abstraction. These results were corroborated by the comparative analysis. Five of the six irrigation scheduling systems estimated the seasonal irrigation amount consistently, while wider differences were found by looking at the irrigation season and at the number of irrigations. Overall, it is found that irrigation support systems are valuable tools for supporting adaptation strategies to fast changes in agro-environmental conditions. However, specific assessments based on real measurements should be considered in order to improve the performance of the systems and provide more consistent support to end-users. (c) 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
An effective strategy for combining variance- and distribution-based global sensitivity analysis
(2020)
We present a new strategy for performing global sensitivity analysis capable to estimate main and interaction effects from a generic sampling design. The new strategy is based on a meaningful combination of varianceand distribution-based approaches. The strategy is tested on four analytic functions and on a hydrological model. Results show that the analysis is consistent with the state-of-the-art Saltelli/Jansen formula but to better quantify the interaction effect between the input factors when the output distribution is skewed. Moreover, the estimation of the sensitivity indices is much more robust requiring a smaller number of simulations runs. Specific settings and alternative methods that can be integrated in the new strategy are also discussed. Overall, the strategy is considered as a new simple and effective tool for performing global sensitivity analysis that can be easily integrated in any environmental modelling framework.
Soil moisture dynamics are affected by complex interactions among several factors. Understanding the relative importance of these factors is still an important challenge in the study of water fluxes and solute transport in unsaturated media. In this study, the spatio-temporal variability of surface soil moisture was investigated in a 10 ha flat cropped field located in northern Italy. Soil moisture was measured on a regular 50 x 50 m grid on seven dates during the growing season. For each measurement campaign, the spatial variability of the soil moisture was compared with the spatial variability of the soil texture and crop properties. In particular, to better understand the role of the vegetation, the spatio-temporal variability of two different parameters - leaf area index and crop height - was monitored on eight dates at different crop development stages. Statistical and geostatistical analysis was then applied to explore the interactions between these variables. In agreement with other studies, the results show that the soil moisture variability changes according to the average value within the field, with the standard deviation reaching a maximum value under intermediate mean soil moisture conditions and the coefficient of variation decreasing exponentially with increasing mean soil moisture. The controls of soil moisture variability change according to the average soil moisture within the field. Under wet conditions, the spatial distribution of the soil moisture reflects the variability of the soil texture. Under dry conditions, the spatial distribution of the soil moisture is affected mostly by the spatial variability of the vegetation. The interaction between these two factors is more important under intermediate soil moisture conditions. These results confirm the importance of considering the average soil moisture conditions within a field when investigating the controls affecting the spatial variability of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of considering the spatio-temporal variability of the vegetation in investigating soil moisture dynamics, especially under intermediate and dry soil moisture conditions. The results of this study have important implications in different hydrological applications, such as for sampling design, ranking stability application, indirect measurements of soil properties and model parameterisation.
Cosmic-Ray neutron sensing (CRS) is a unique approach to measure soil moisture at field scale filling the gap of current methodologies. However, CRS signal is affected by all the hydrogen pools on the land surface and understanding their relative importance plays an important role for the application of the method e.g., validation of remote sensing products and data assimilation. In this study, a soil moisture scaling approach is proposed to estimate directly the correct CRS soil moisture based on the soil moisture profile measured at least in one position within the field. The approach has the advantage to avoid the need to introduce one correction for each hydrogen contribution and to estimate indirectly all the related time-varying hydrogen pools. Based on the data collected in three crop seasons, the scaling approach shows its ability to identify and to quantify the seasonal biomass water equivalent. Additionally, the analysis conducted at sub-daily time resolution is able to quantify the daily vertical redistribution of the water biomass and the rainfall interception, showing promising applications of the CRS method also for these types of measurements. Overall, the study underlines how not only soil moisture but all the specific hydrological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum should be considered for a proper evaluation of the CRS signal. For this scope, the scaling approach reveals to be a simple and pragmatic analysis that can be easily extended to other experimental sites. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a promising proximal soil sensing technique to estimate soil moisture at intermediate scale and high temporal resolution. However, the signal shows complex and non-unique response to all hydrogen pools near the land surface, providing some challenges for soil moisture estimation in practical applications. Aims of the study were 1) to assess the uncertainty of CRNS as a stand-alone approach to estimate volumetric soil moisture in cropped field 2) to identify the causes of this uncertainty 3) and possible improvements. Two experimental sites in Germany were equipped with a CRNS probe and point-scale soil moisture network. Additional monitoring activities were conducted during the crop growing season to characterize the soil-plant systems. This data is used to identify and quantify the different sources of uncertainty (factors). An uncertainty analysis, based on Monte Carlo approach, is applied to propagate these uncertainties to CRNS soil moisture estimations. In addition, a sensitivity analysis based on the Sobol’ method is performed to identify the most important factors explaining this uncertainty. Results show that CRNS soil moisture compares well to the soil moisture network when these point-scale values are weighted to account for the spatial sensitivity of the signal and other sources of hydrogen (lattice water and organic carbon) are added to the water content. However, the performance decreases when CRNS is considered as a stand-alone method to retrieve the actual (non-weighted) volumetric soil moisture. The support volume (penetration depth and radius) shows also a considerable uncertainty, especially in relatively dry soil moisture conditions. Four of the seven factors analyzed (the vertical soil moisture profile, bulk density, incoming neutron correction and the calibrated parameter N0) were found to play an important role. Among the possible improvements identified, a simple correction factor based on vertical point-scale soil moisture profiles shows to be a promising approach to account for the sensitivity of the CRNS signal to the upper soil layers.
The present study proposes a General Probabilistic Framework (GPF) for uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models in which, in addition to scalar inputs, non-scalar and correlated inputs can be considered as well. The analysis is conducted with the variance-based approach of Sobol/Saltelli where first and total sensitivity indices are estimated. The results of the framework can be used in a loop for model improvement, parameter estimation or model simplification. The framework is applied to SWAP, a 113 hydrological model for the transport of water, solutes and heat in unsaturated and saturated soils. The sources of uncertainty are grouped in five main classes: model structure (soil discretization), input (weather data), time-varying (crop) parameters, scalar parameters (soil properties) and observations (measured soil moisture). For each source of uncertainty, different realizations are created based on direct monitoring activities. Uncertainty of evapotranspiration, soil moisture in the root zone and bottom fluxes below the root zone are considered in the analysis. The results show that the sources of uncertainty are different for each output considered and it is necessary to consider multiple output variables for a proper assessment of the model. Improvements on the performance of the model can be achieved reducing the uncertainty in the observations, in the soil parameters and in the weather data. Overall, the study shows the capability of the GPF to quantify the relative contribution of the different sources of uncertainty and to identify the priorities required to improve the performance of the model. The proposed framework can be extended to a wide variety of modelling applications, also when direct measurements of model output are not available.
Soil properties show high heterogeneity at different spatial scales and their correct characterization remains a crucial challenge over large areas. The aim of the study is to quantify the impact of different types of uncertainties that arise from the unresolved soil spatial variability on simulated hydrological states and fluxes. Three perturbation methods are presented for the characterization of uncertainties in soil properties. The methods are applied on the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as an example. The uncertainties are propagated through the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to assess the impact on the simulated states and fluxes. The model outputs are analysed by aggregating the results at different spatial and temporal scales. These results show that the impact of the different uncertainties introduced in the original soil map is equivalent when the simulated model outputs are analysed at the model grid resolution (i.e. 500 m). However, several differences are identified by aggregating states and fluxes at different spatial scales (by subcatchments of different sizes or coarsening the grid resolution). Streamflow is only sensitive to the perturbation of long spatial structures while distributed states and fluxes (e.g. soil moisture and groundwater recharge) are only sensitive to the local noise introduced to the original soil properties. A clear identification of the temporal and spatial scale for which finer-resolution soil information is (or is not) relevant is unlikely to be universal. However, the comparison of the impacts on the different hydrological components can be used to prioritize the model improvements in specific applications, either by collecting new measurements or by calibration and data assimilation approaches. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of a correct characterization of uncertainty in soil properties. With that, soil maps with additional information regarding the unresolved soil spatial variability would provide strong support to hydrological modelling applications.
The Southern Central Andes (33°-36°S) are an excellent natural laboratory to study orogenic deformation processes, where boundary conditions, such as the geometry of the subducted plate, impose an important control on the evolution of the orogen. On the other hand, the South American plate presents a series of heterogeneities that additionally impart control on the mode of deformation. This thesis aims to test the control of this last factor over the construction of the Cenozoic Andean orogenic system.
From the integration of surface and subsurface information in the southern area (34-36°S), the evolution of Andean deformation over the steeply dipping subduction segment was studied. A structural model was developed evaluating the stress state from the Miocene to the present-day and its influence in the migration of magmatic fluids and hydrocarbons. Based on these data, together with the data generated by other researchers in the northern zone of the study area (33-34°S), geodynamic numerical modeling was performed to test the hypothesis of the decisive role of upper-plate heterogeneities in the Andean evolution. Geodynamic codes (LAPEX-2D and ASPECT) which simulate the behavior of materials with elasto-visco-plastic rheologies under deformation, were used. The model results suggest that upper-plate contractional deformation is significantly controlled by the strength of the lithosphere, which is defined by the composition of the upper and lower crust, and by the proportion of lithospheric mantle, which in turn is determined by previous tectonic events. In addition, the previous regional tectono-magmatic events also defined the composition of the crust and its geometry, which is another factor that controls the localization of deformation. Accordingly, with more felsic lower crustal composition, the deformation follows a pure-shear mode, while more mafic compositions induce a simple-shear deformation mode. On the other hand, it was observed that initial lithospheric thickness may fundamentally control the location of deformation, with zones characterized by thin lithosphere are prone to concentrate it. Finally, it was found that an asymmetric lithosphere-astenosphere boundary resulting from corner flow in the mantle wedge of the eastward-directed subduction zone tends to generate east-vergent detachments.
In this paper, we examine the influence of the 27 October 2012, M-w 7.8 earthquake on landslide occurrence in the southern half of Haida Gwaii (formerly Queen Charlotte Islands), British Columbia, Canada. Our 1350 km(2) study area is undisturbed, primarily forested terrain that has not experienced road building or timber harvesting. Our inventory of landslide polygons is based on optical airborne and spaceborne images acquired between 2007 and 2018, from which we extracted and mapped 446 individual landslides (an average of 33 landslides per 100 km(2)). The landslide rate in years without major earthquakes averages 19.4 per year, or 1.4/100 km(2)/year, and the annual average area covered by non-seismically triggered landslides is 35 ha/year. The number of landslides identified in imagery closely following the 2012 earthquake, and probably triggered by it, is 244 or an average of about 18 landslides per 100 km(2). These landslides cover a total area of 461 ha. In the following years-2013-2016 and 2016-2018-the number of landslides fell, respectively, to 26 and 13.5 landslides per year. In non-earthquake years, most landslides happen on south-facing slopes, facing the prevailing winds. In contrast, during or immediately after the earthquake, up to 32% of the landslides occurred on north and northwest-facing slopes. Although we could not find imagery from the day after the earthquake, overview reconnaissance flights 10 and 16 days later showed that most of the landslides were recent, suggesting they were co-seismic.
A hydrochemical approach to quantify the role of return flow in a surface flow-dominated catchment
(2017)
Stormflow generation in headwater catchments dominated by subsurface flow has been studied extensively, yet catchments dominated by surface flow have received less attention. We addressed this by testing whether stormflow chemistry is controlled by either (a) the event-water signature of overland flow, or (b) the pre-event water signature of return flow. We used a high-resolution hydrochemical data set of stormflow and end-members of multiple storms in an end-member mixing analysis to determine the number of end-members needed to explain stormflow, characterize and identify potential end-members, calculate their contributions to stormflow, and develop a conceptual model of stormflow. The arrangement and relative positioning of end-members in stormflow mixing space suggest that saturation excess overland flow (26-48%) and return flow from two different subsurface storage pools (17-53%) are both similarly important for stormflow. These results suggest that pipes and fractures are important flow paths to rapidly release stored water and highlight the value of within-event resolution hydrochemical data to assess the full range and dynamics of flow paths.
End member mixing analysis (EMMA) is a commonly applied method to identify and quantify the dominant runoff producing sources of water. It employs tracers to determine the dimensionality of the hydrologic system. Many EMMA studies have been conducted using two to six tracers, with some of the main tracers being Ca, Na, Cl(-), water isotopes, and alkalinity. Few studies use larger tracer sets including minor trace elements such as Li, Rb, Sr, and Ba. None of the studies has addressed the question of the tracer set size and composition, despite the fact that these determine which and how many end members (EM) will be identified. We examine how tracer set size and composition affects the conceptual model that results from an EMMA. We developed an automatic procedure that conducts EMMA while iteratively changing tracer set size and composition. We used a set of 14 tracers and 9 EMs. The validity of the resulting conceptual models was investigated under the aspects of dimensionality, EM combinations, and contributions to stream water. From the 16,369 possibilities, 23 delivered plausible results. The resulting conceptual models are highly sensitive to the tracer set size and composition. The moderate reproducibility of EM contributions indicates a still missing EM. It also emphasizes that the major elements are not always the most useful tracers and that larger tracer sets have an enhanced capacity to avoid false conclusions about catchment functioning. The presented approach produces results that may not be apparent from the traditional approach and it is a first step to add the idea of statistical significance to the EMMA approach.