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We isolated and characterized 16 new di- and tetranudeotide microsatellite markers for the critically endangered Asian box turtle genus Cuora, focusing on the "Cuora trifasciata" species complex. The new markers were then used to analyse genetic variability and divergence amongst five described species within this complex, namely C. aurocapitata (n = 18), C. cyclornata (n = 31), C. pani (n = 6), C. trifasciata (n = 58), and C. zhoui (n = 7). Our results support the view that all five species represent valid taxa. Within two species (C. trifasciata and C. cyclornata), two distinct morphotypes were corroborated by microsatellite divergence. For three individuals, morphologically identified as being of hybrid origin, the hybrid status was confirmed by our genetic analysis. Our results confirm the controversial species (Cuora aurocapitata, C. cyclornata) and subspecies/morphotypes (C. cyclornata meieri, C. trifasciata cf. trifasciata) to be genetically distinct, which has critical implications for conservation strategies.
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 +/- 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 +/- 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 +/- 0.21 degrees C or 7.8 +/- 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 degrees C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 degrees C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 degrees C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
The spatiotemporal, kinematic, and source characteristics of induced seismicity occurring at different fluid injection rates are investigated to determine the predominant physical mechanisms responsible for induced seismicity at the northwestern part of The Geysers geothermal field, California. We analyze a relocated hypocenter catalog from a seismicity cluster where significant variations of the stress tensor orientation were previously observed to correlate with injection rates. We find that these stress tensor orientation changes may be related to increased pore pressure and the corresponding changes in poroelastic stresses at reservoir depth. Seismic events during peak injections tend to occur at greater distances from the injection well, preferentially trending parallel to the maximum horizontal stress direction. In contrast, at lower injection rates the seismicity tends to align in a different direction which suggests the presence of a local fault. During peak injection intervals, the relative contribution of strike-slip faulting mechanisms increases. Furthermore, increases in fluid injection rates also coincide with a decrease in b values. Our observations suggest that regardless of the injection stage, most of the induced seismicity results from thermal fracturing of the reservoir rock. However, during peak injection intervals, the increase in pore pressure may likewise be responsible for the induced seismicity. By estimating the thermal and hydraulic diffusivities of the reservoir, we confirm that the characteristic diffusion length for pore pressure is much greater than the corresponding length scale for temperature and also more consistent with the spatial extent of seismicity observed during different injection rates.
Quantifying volumes and rates of delivery of terrestrial sediment from island arcs to subduction zones is indispensable for refining estimates of the thickness of trench fills that may eventually control the location and timing of submarine landslides and tsunami-generating mega-earthquakes. Despite these motivating insights, knowledge about the rates of erosion and sediment export from the Japanese islands to their Pacific subduction zones remains patchy regardless of the increasing availability of highly resolved data on surface deformation, climate, geology, and topography. Traditionally, natural erosion rates across the island arc have been estimated from regression of topographic catchment metrics and reservoir sedimentation rates that were recorded over several years to decades. We review current research in this context, correct for a systematic bias in one of the most widely used predictions, and present new estimates of decadal to millennial-scale erosion rates of Japan's terrestrial inner forearc. We draw on several independent and unprecedented inventories of mass wasting, reservoir sedimentation, and concentrations of cosmogenic Be-10 in river sands. We find that natural Be-10-derived denudation rates of several mm yr(-1) in the Japanese Alps have been sustained over several centuries to millennia, and are, within error, roughly consistent with sediment yields inferred from artificial reservoir sedimentation. Local exceptions may likely result from release of sediment storage or regional landsliding episodes that trigger transient sediment pulses. Our synopsis further reveals that catchments draining Japan's eastern seaboard differ distinctly in their tectonic, lithological, topographic, and climatic characteristics between the Tohoku, Japanese Alps, and Nankai inner forearc segments, which is underscored by a marked asymmetric pattern of erosion rates along the island arc. Erosion rates are highest (up to at least 3 mm yr(-1)) in the Japanese Alps that mark the collision of two subduction zones, where high topographic relief, hillslope and bedrock-channel steepness foster rapid denudation by mass wasting. Comparable, if slightly lower, erosion rates characterise the Nankai inner forearc in southwest Japan, most likely due to higher typhoon-driven rainfall totals and variability rather than its high topographic relief. In contrast, our estimated erosion and flux rates are lowest in the Tohoku inner forearc catchments that feed sediment into the Japan Trench. We conclude that collisional mountain building of the Japanese Alps drives some of the highest erosion rates in the island arc despite similar uplift and precipitation controls in southwest Japan. We infer that, prior to extensive river damming, reservoir construction, and coastal works, the gross of Japan's total sediment export to the Pacific Ocean entered the accretionary margin of the Nankai Trough as opposed to the comparatively sediment-starved Japan Trench. Compared to documented contemporary rates of sediment flux from mountainous catchments elsewhere in the Pacific, the rivers draining Japan's inner forearc take an intermediate position despite high relief, steep slopes, very high seismicity, and frequent rainstorms. However, the average rates of millennial-scale denudation in the Japanese Alps particularly are amongst the highest reported worldwide.
Local mismatches between these late Holocene and modern rates emphasise the anthropogenic fingerprint on sediment retention that may have significantly reduced the island arc's mass flux to its subduction zones, as is the case elsewhere in east and southeast Asia. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Late Quaternary valley infill and dissection in the Indus River, western Tibetan Plateau margin
(2014)
The Indus, one of Earth's major rivers, drains large parts of the NW Himalaya and the Transhimalayan ranges that form part of the western Tibetan Plateau margin. In the western Himalayan syntaxis, where local topographic relief exceeds 7 km, the Indus has incised a steep bedrock gorge at rates of several mm yr(-1). Upstream, however, the upper Indus and its tributaries alternate between bedrock gorges and broad alluvial flats flanked by the Ladakh and Zanskar ranges. We review the late Quaternary valley history in this region with a focus on the confluence of the Indus and Zanskar Rivers, where vast alluvial terrace staircases and lake sediments record major episodes of aggradation and incision. New absolute dating of high-level fluvial terrace remnants using cosmogenic Be-10, optically and infrared stimulated luminescence (OSL, IRSL) indicates at least two phases of late Quaternary valley infilling. These phases commenced before similar to 200 ka and similar to 50-20 ka, judging from terrace treads stranded >150 m and similar to 30-40 m above modern river levels, respectively. Numerous stacks of lacustrine sediments that straddle the Indus River >200 km between the city of Leh and the confluence with the Shyok River share a distinct horizontal alignment. Constraints from IRSL samples of lacustrine sequences from the Leh-Spituk area reveal a protracted lake phase from >177 ka to 72 ka, locally accumulating >50-m thick deposits. In the absence of tectonic faulting, major lithological differences, and stream capture, we attribute the formation of this and other large lakes in the region to natural damming by large landslides, glaciers, and alluvial fans. The overall patchy landform age constraints from earlier studies can be reconciled by postulating a major deglacial control on sediment flux, valley infilling, and subsequent incision that has been modulated locally by backwater effects of natural damming. While comparison with Pleistocene monsoon proxies reveals no obvious correlation, a lateor post-glacial sediment pulse seems a more likely source of this widespread sedimentation that has partly buried the dissected bedrock topography. Overall, the long residence times of fluvial, alluvial and lacustrine deposits in the region (>500 ka) support previous studies, but remain striking given the dominantly steep slopes and deeply carved valleys that characterise this high-altitude mountain desert. Recalculated late Quaternary rates of fluvial bedrock incision in the Indus and Zanskar of 1.5 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1) are at odds with the longevity of juxtaposed valley-fill deposits, unless a lack of decisive lateral fluvial erosion helps to preserve these late Pleistocene sedimentary archives. We conclude that alternating, similar to 10(4)-yr long, phases of massive infilling and incision have dominated the late Quaternary history of the Indus valley below the western Tibetan Plateau margin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The 2002 M-w 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate in quantitative detail the regional hillslope mass-wasting response to strong seismic shaking in glacierized terrain. We present the first detailed inventory of similar to 1580 coseismic slope failures, out of which some 20% occurred above large valley glaciers, based on mapping from multi-temporal remote sensing data. We find that the Denali earthquake produced at least one order of magnitude fewer landslides in a much narrower corridor along the fault ruptures than empirical predictions for an M 8 earthquake would suggest, despite the availability of sufficiently steep and dissected mountainous topography prone to frequent slope failure. In order to explore potential controls on the reduced extent of regional coseismic landsliding we compare our data with inventories that we compiled for two recent earthquakes in periglacial and formerly glaciated terrain, i.e. at Yushu, Tibet (M-w 6.9, 2010), and Aysen Fjord, Chile (2007 M-w 6.2). Fault movement during these events was, similarly to that of the Denali earthquake, dominated by strike-slip offsets along near-vertical faults. Our comparison returns very similar coseismic landslide patterns that are consistent with the idea that fault type, geometry, and dynamic rupture process rather than widespread glacier cover were among the first-order controls on regional hillslope erosional response in these earthquakes. We conclude that estimating the amount of coseismic hillslope sediment input to the sediment cascade from earthquake magnitude alone remains highly problematic, particularly if glacierized terrain is involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dealing with predicted increases in extreme weather conditions due to climate change requires robust knowledge about controls on rainfall-triggered landslides. We explore relationships between rainfall and landslide size throughout the Japanese archipelago. We test whether the total volume of landslides can be predicted directly from rainfall totals, intensity, and duration using a nationwide inventory of 4744 rainfall-triggered landslides recorded from A.D. 2001 to 2011. We find that larger landslides were more abundant at the expense of smaller ones when total, maximum, and mean rainfall intensity exceeded similar to 250 mm, similar to 35 mm/h, and similar to 4 mm/h, respectively. Frequency distributions of these rainfall parameters are peaked and heavily skewed. Yet neither the most frequent nor the most extreme values of these rainfall metrics coincide consistently with the maximum landslide volumes. A striking decrease of landslide volumes at both mean and maximum rainfall intensity, as well as duration, points to an exhaustion in hillslope geomorphic response regardless of sample size, landslide type, mobilized volume, dominant lithology, or reporting bias. Our results underscore substantial offsets between the peaks of rainfall metrics and maximum associated landslide volumes, thus complicating straightforward estimates of geomorphic work from metrics of rainstorm magnitude or frequency. Only the rainfall total appears to be a suitable monotonic predictor of landslide volumes mobilized during typhoons and frontal storms.
The growing body of research on large-scale mass wasting events so far has only scarcely investigated the sedimentology of chaotic deposits from non-volcanic terrestrial landslides such that any overarching and systematic terminological framework remains elusive. Yet recent work has emphasized the need for better understanding the internal structure and composition of rockslide deposits as a means to characterise the mechanics during the final stages of runout and emplacement. We offer a comprehensive overview on the occurrence of rock fragmentation and frictional melt both at different geographic locations, and different sections within large (>10(6) m(3)) rockslide masses. We argue that exposures of pervasively fragmented and interlocked jigsaw-cracked rock masses; basal melange containing rip-up clasts and phantom blocks; micro-breccia; and thin bands of basal frictionite are indispensable clues for identifying deposits from giant rockslides that may remain morphologically inconspicuous otherwise. These sedimentary assemblages are diagnostic tools for distinguishing large rockslide debris from macro and microscopically similar glacial deposits, tectonic fault-zone breccias, and impact breccias, and thus help avoid palaeoclimatic and tectonic misinterpretations, let alone misestimates of the hazard from giant rockslides. Moreover, experimental results from Mossbauer spectroscopy of frictionite samples support visual interpretations of thin sections, and demonstrate that short-lived (<10 s) friction-induced partial melting at temperatures >1500 degrees C in the absence of water occurred at the base of several giant moving rockslides. This finding supports previous theories of dry excess runout accompanied by comminution of rock masses down to gm-scale, and indicates that catastrophic motion of large fragmenting rock masses does not require water as a potential lubricant.
The Norwegian traffic network is impacted by about 2000 landslides, avalanches, and debris flows each year that incur high economic losses. Despite the urgent need to mitigate future losses, efforts to locate potential debris flow source areas have been rare at the regional scale. We tackle this research gap by exploring a minimal set of possible topographic predictors of debris flow initiation that we input to a Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) model for mapping the regional susceptibility to debris flows in western Norway. We use an inventory of 429 debris flows that were recorded between 1979 and 2008, and use the terrain variables of slope, total curvature, and contributing area (flow accumulation) to compute the posterior probabilities of local debris flow occurrence. The novelty of our approach is that we quantify the uncertainties in the WofE approach arising from different predictor classification schemes and data input, while estimating model accuracy and predictive performance from independent test data. Our results show that a percentile-based classification scheme excels over a manual classification of the predictor variables because differing abundances in manually defined bins reduce the reliability of the conditional independence tests, a key, and often neglected, prerequisite for the WofE method. The conditional dependence between total curvature and flow accumulation precludes their joint use in the model. Slope gradient has the highest true positive rate (88%), although the fraction of area classified as susceptible is very large (37%). The predictive performance, i.e. the reduction of false positives, is improved when combined with either total curvature or flow accumulation. Bootstrapping shows that the combination of slope and flow accumulation provides more reliable predictions than the combination of slope and total curvature, and helps refining the use of slope-area plots for identifying morphometric fingerprints of debris flow source areas, an approach used outside the field of landslide susceptibility assessments.
Many mountain belts sustain prolonged snow cover for parts of the year, although enquiries into rates of erosion in these landscapes have focused almost exclusively on the snow-free periods. This raises the question of whether annual snow cover contributes significantly to modulating rates of erosion in high-relief terrain. In this context, the sudden release of snow avalanches is a frequent and potentially relevant process, judging from the physical damage to subalpine forest ecosystems, and the amount of debris contained in avalanche deposits. To quantitatively constrain this visual impression and to expand the sparse literature, we sampled sediment concentrations of n = 28 river-spanning snow-avalanche deposits (snow bridges) in the area around Davos, eastern Swiss Alps, and inferred an orders-of-magnitude variability in specific fine sediment and organic carbon yields (1.8 to 830 t km(-2) yr(-1), and 0.04 to 131 tC km(-2) yr(-1), respectively). A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that, with a minimum of free parameters, such variability is inherent to the geometric scaling used for computing specific yields. Moreover, the widely applied method of linearly extrapolating plot scale sample data may be prone to substantial under- or overestimates. A comparison of our inferred yields with previously published work demonstrates the relevance of wet snow avalanches as prominent agents of soil erosion and transporters of biogeochemical constituents to mountain rivers. Given that a number of snow bridges persisted below the insulating debris cover well into the summer months, snow-avalanche deposits also contribute to regulating in-channel sediment and organic debris storage on seasonal timescales. Finally, our results underline the potential shortcomings of neglecting erosional processes in the winter and spring months in mountainous terrain subjected to prominent snow cover.
Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks.
In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach.
Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.
The Indus River, one of Asia's premier rivers, drains the western Tibetan Plateau and the Nanga Parbat syntaxis. These two areas juxtapose some of the lowest and highest topographic relief and commensurate denudation rates in the Himalaya-Tibet orogen, respectively, yet the spatial pattern of denudation rates upstream of the syntaxis remains largely unclear, as does the way in which major rivers drive headward incision into the Tibetan Plateau. We report a new inventory of Be-10-based basinwide denudation rates from 33 tributaries flanking the Indus River along a 320 km reach across the western Tibetan Plateau margin. We find that denudation rates of up to 110 mm k.y.(-1) in the Ladakh and Zanskar Ranges systematically decrease eastward to 10 mm k.y.(-1) toward the Tibetan Plateau. Independent results from bulk petrographic and heavy mineral analyses support this denudation gradient. Assuming that incision along the Indus exerts the base-level control on tributary denudation rates, our data show a systematic eastward decrease of landscape downwearing, reaching its minimum on the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, denudation rates increase rapidly 150-200 km downstream of a distinct knick-point that marks the Tibetan Plateau margin in the Indus River longitudinal profile. We infer that any vigorous headward incision and any accompanying erosional waves into the interior of the plateau mostly concerned reaches well below this plateau margin. Moreover, reported long-term (>10(6) yr) exhumation rates from low-temperature chronometry of 0.1-0.75 mm yr(-1) consistently exceed our Be-10-derived denudation rates. With averaging time scales of 10(3)-10(4) yr for our denudation data, we report postglacial rates of downwearing in a tectonically idle landscape. To counterbalance this apparent mismatch, denudation rates must have been higher in the Quaternary during glacial-interglacial intervals.
Can short-term incentives induce long-lasting cooperation? Results from a public-goods experiment
(2014)
This paper investigates whether providing strong cooperation incentives only at the outset of a group interaction spills over to later periods to ensure cooperation in the long run. We study a repeated linear public-good game with punishment opportunities and a parameter change after the first ten (of twenty) rounds. Our data shows that cooperation among subjects who had experienced a higher marginal return on public-good contributions or low punishment costs in rounds 1-10 rapidly deteriorated in rounds 11-20 once these incentives were removed, eventually trending below the level of cooperation in the control group. This suggests the possibility of temporary incentives backfiring in the long run. This paper ties in with the literature highlighting the potentially adverse effects of the use of incentives. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Within the framework of the international DESIRE (DEad Sea Integrated REsearch) project, a dense temporary local seismological network was operated in the southern Dead Sea area. During 18 recording months, 648 events were detected. Based on an already published tomography study clustering, focal mechanisms, statistics and the distribution of the microseismicity in relation to the velocity models from the tomography are analysed. The determined b value of 0.74 leads to a relatively high risk of large earthquakes compared to the moderate microseismic activity. The distribution of the seismicity indicates an asymmetric basin with a vertical strike-slip fault forming the eastern boundary of the basin, and an inclined western boundary, made up of strike-slip and normal faults. Furthermore, significant differences between the area north and south of the Bokek fault were observed. South of the Bokek fault, the western boundary is inactive while the entire seismicity occurs on the eastern boundary and below the basin-fill sediments. The largest events occurred here, and their focal mechanisms represent the northwards transform motion of the Arabian plate along the Dead Sea Transform. The vertical extension of the spatial and temporal cluster from February 2007 is interpreted as being related to the locking of the region around the Bokek fault. North of the Bokek fault similar seismic activity occurs on both boundaries most notably within the basin-fill sediments, displaying mainly small events with strike-slip mechanism and normal faulting in EW direction. Therefore, we suggest that the Bokek fault forms the border between the single transform fault and the pull-apart basin with two active border faults.
The cultivation of plants for use as energy resources is an agricultural and industrial sector with potentially synergistic benefits related to protecting the environment and generating income. Against the background of increasing land-use changes and new agricultural approaches to the production of energy crops, we present a method for identifying future-oriented crop rotations that supports both the economic and environmental components of decision-making strategies with respect to agriculture-related policy decisions (regional mission statements). The conflicting aspects of these objectives can be addressed with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-attribute decision-making method that was integrated here. Three models are used to generate simulations of the defined objectives over a planning period of 30 years under the current climate scenario and provide input data for the multi-attribute assessment of several crop rotations. Based on the entire evaluation process, dimensionless global priority vectors are used to indicate how well the crop rotations meet the requirements of the defined mission statement. The method is tested in a municipality in NE Germany. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34Myrago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.
After more than a decade of multidisciplinary studies of the Central American subduction zone mainly in the framework of two large research programmes, the US MARGINS program and the German Collaborative Research Center SFB 574, we here review and interpret the data pertinent to quantify the cycling of mineral-bound volatiles (H2O, CO2, Cl, S) through this subduction system. For input-flux calculations, we divide the Middle America Trench into four segments differing in convergence rate and slab lithological profiles, use the latest evidence for mantle serpentinization of the Cocos slab approaching the trench, and for the first time explicitly include subduction erosion of forearc basement. Resulting input fluxes are 40-62 (53) Tg/Ma/m H2O, 7.8-11.4 (9.3) Tg/Ma/m CO2, 1.3-1.9 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m Cl, and 1.3-2.1 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m S (bracketed are mean values for entire trench length). Output by cold seeps on the forearc amounts to 0.625-1.25 Tg/Ma/m H2O partly derived from the slab sediments as determined by geochemical analyses of fluids and carbonates. The major volatile output occurs at the Central American volcanic arc that is divided into ten arc segments by dextral strike-slip tectonics. Based on volcanic edifice and widespread tephra volumes as well as calculated parental magma masses needed to form observed evolved compositions, we determine long-term (10(5) years) average magma and K2O fluxes for each of the ten segments as 32-242 (106) Tg/Ma/m magma and 0.28-2.91 (1.38) Tg/Ma/m K2O (bracketed are mean values for entire Central American volcanic arc length). Volatile/K2O concentration ratios derived from melt inclusion analyses and petrologic modelling then allow to calculate volatile fluxes as 1.02-14.3 (6.2) Tg/Ma/m H2O, 0.02-0.45 (0.17) Tg/Ma/m CO2, and 0.07-0.34 (0.22) Tg/Ma/m Cl. The same approach yields long-term sulfur fluxes of 0.12-1.08 (0.54) Tg/Ma/m while present-day open-vent SO2-flux monitoring yields 0.06-2.37 (0.83) Tg/Ma/m S. Input-output comparisons show that the arc water fluxes only account for up to 40 % of the input even if we include an "invisible" plutonic component constrained by crustal growth. With 20-30 % of the H2O input transferred into the deeper mantle as suggested by petrologic modeling, there remains a deficiency of, say, 30-40 % in the water budget. At least some of this water is transferred into two upper-plate regions of low seismic velocity and electrical resistivity whose sizes vary along arc: one region widely envelopes the melt ascent paths from slab top to arc and the other extends obliquely from the slab below the forearc to below the arc. Whether these reservoirs are transient or steady remains unknown.
Current evidence suggests that all of the major events in hominin evolution have occurred in East Africa. Over the last two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of East Africa has varied in the past. The landscape of East Africa has altered dramatically over the last 10 million years. It has changed from a relatively flat, homogenous region covered with mixed tropical forest, to a varied and heterogeneous environment, with mountains over 4 km high and vegetation ranging from desert to cloud forest. The progressive rifting of East Africa has also generated numerous lake basins, which are highly sensitive to changes in the local precipitation-evaporation regime. There is now evidence that the presence of precession-driven, ephemeral deep-water lakes in East Africa were concurrent with major events in hominin evolution. It seems the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created periods of highly variable local climate, which, it has been suggested could have driven hominin speciation, encephalisation and dispersal out of Africa. One example is the significant hominin speciation and brain expansion event at -1.8 Ma that seems to have been coeval with the occurrence of highly variable, extensive, deep-water lakes. This complex, climatically very variable setting inspired first the variability selection hypothesis, which was then the basis for the pulsed climate variability hypothesis. The newer of the two suggests that the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity. Both hypotheses, together with other key theories of climate-evolution linkages, are discussed in this paper. Though useful the actual evolution mechanisms, which led to early hominins are still unclear and continue to be debated. However, it is clear that an understanding of East African lakes and their palaeoclimate history is required to understand the context within which humans evolved and eventually left East Africa. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Trees and shrubs in tropical Africa use the C-3 cycle as a carbon fixation pathway during photosynthesis, while grasses and sedges mostly use the C-4 cycle. Leaf-wax lipids from sedimentary archives such as the long-chain n-alkanes (e.g., n-C-27 to n-C-33) inherit carbon isotope ratios that are representative of the carbon fixation pathway. Therefore, n-alkane delta C-13 values are often used to reconstruct past C-3/C-4 composition of vegetation, assuming that the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 leaf waxes reflect the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 plants. We have compared the delta C-13 values of n-alkanes from modern C-3 and C-4 plants with previously published values from recent lake sediments and provide a framework for estimating the fractional contribution (areal-based) of C-3 vegetation cover (f(C3)) represented by these sedimentary archives. Samples were collected in Cameroon, across a latitudinal transect that accommodates a wide range of climate zones and vegetation types, as reflected in the progressive northward replacement of C-3-dominated rain forest by C-4-dominated savanna. The C-3 plants analysed were characterised by substantially higher abundances of n-C-29 alkanes and by substantially lower abundances of n-C-33 alkanes than the C-4 plants. Furthermore, the sedimentary delta C-13 values of n-C-29 and n-C-31 alkanes from recent lake sediments in Cameroon (-37.4%) to 26.5%) were generally within the range of delta C-13 values for C-3 plants, even when from sites where C-4 plants dominated the catchment vegetation. In such cases simple linear mixing models fail to accurately reconstruct the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 vegetation cover when using the delta C-13 values of sedimentary n-alkanes, overestimating the proportion of C-3 vegetation, likely as a consequence of the differences in plant wax production, preservation, transport, and/or deposition between C-3 and C-4 plants. We therefore tested a set of non-linear binary mixing models using delta C-13 values from both C-3 and C-4 vegetation as end-members. The non-linear models included a sigmoid function (sine-squared) that describes small variations in the f(C3) values as the minimum and maximum delta C-13 values are approached, and a hyperbolic function that takes into account the differences between C-3 and C-4 plants discussed above. Model fitting and the estimation of uncertainties were completed using the Monte Carlo algorithm and can be improved by future data addition. Models that provided the best fit with the observed delta C-13 values of sedimentary n-alkanes were either hyperbolic functions or a combination of hyperbolic and sine-squared functions. Such non-linear models may be used to convert delta C-13 measurements on sedimentary n-alkanes directly into reconstructions of C-3 vegetation cover. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Our study presents the results of a moment tensor inversion of 19 microseismic events with M-L between 2.0 and 3.4, associated with the stimulation operation of an enhanced geothermal reservoir in Basel, Switzerland, in 2006. We adopt a three-step procedure to retrieve point source solution parameters based on full waveform inversion. The inversion is performed by fitting displacement amplitude spectra and displacement seismograms in the first and second step, respectively, assuming a double couple source model and thus obtaining focal solutions for all 19 events. Our results are in agreement with focal mechanisms from a previous study, which employed P wave first-motion polarities from more than 40 stations, whereas our solutions are achieved using full waveform data recorded by less than 10 surface stations. In the last step, a full moment tensor inversion is performed. The results from the moment tensor inversion show an improvement on the waveform fitting compared to the double couple models, which is verified by an F-test. We investigate the stability of the moment tensor solutions by employing different velocity models. The isotropic components of the moment tensor solutions of some events are not negligible, suggesting source volume changes due to fluid injection. Events with significant isotropic components occurred mainly during the stimulation phase and close to the injection well. On the other hand, events that occurred in the post-stimulation phase are predominantly pure shear failure and located further away from the well bore. These spatio-temporal patterns can be explained by the influence of pore pressure variations during and after the hydraulic stimulation at the geothermal site. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
From November 2006 to January 2010, a sediment trap that was cleared monthly was deployed in Lake Challa, a deep stratified freshwater lake on the eastern slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro in southern Kenya. Geochemical data from sediment trap samples were compared with a broad range of limnological and meteorological parameters to characterize the effect of single parameters on productivity and sedimentation processes in the crater basin. During the southern hemisphere summer (November-March), when the water temperature is high and the lake is biologically productive (nondiatom algae), calcite predominated in the sediment trap samples. During the "long rain" season (March-May) a small amount of organic matter and lithogenic material caused by rainfall appeared. This was followed by the cool and windy months of the southern hemisphere winter (June-October) when diatoms were the main component, indicating a diatom bloom initiated by improvement of nutrient availability related to upwelling processes. The sediment trap data support the hypothesis that the light-dark lamination couplets, which are abundant in Lake Challa cores, reflect seasonal delivery to the sediments of diatom-rich particulates during the windy months and diatom-poor material during the wet season. However, interannual and spatial variability in upwelling and productivity patterns, as well as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related rainfall and drought cycles, exert a strong influence on the magnitude and geochemical composition of particle export to the hypolimnion of Lake Challa.
The biostratigraphy of Campanian-Maastrichtian carbonate platforms is largely based on the larger foraminiferal genus Orbitoides. However, while the taxonomy and the chronostratigraphic age of the younger species of this genus are well established, there are still many controversies on the earliest species. We have restudied their morphological characters using a large collection of samples from the type-localities and from continuous sections in the southern Pyrenees. Based on these new observations, the long forgotten species O. sanctae-pelagiae is reinstated, while O. dordoniensis is considered a junior synonym. Successive populations of O. hottingeri, O. sanctae-pelagiae and O. douvillei show gradual morphological changes in time marked by an increase in the size and complexity of the macrospheric embryonal apparatus, an increase of the size of the adult specimens of both generations and the progressive appearance and development of true lateral chamberlets. The Font de les Bagasses Unit in the southern Pyrenees preserves a high-resolution archive of the evolution of the earliest Orbitoides. Strontium isotope stratigraphy indicates that the oldest species, O. hottingeri, made its first appearance in the earliest Campanian, close to the Santonian-Campanian boundary, and was replaced by O. sanctae-pelagiae at a level closely corresponding to the boundary between the Placenticeras bidorsatum and Menabites delawarensis ammonite zones. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Grain-size distributions offer powerful proxies of past environmental conditions that are related to sediment sorting processes. However, they are often of multimodal character because sediments can get mixed during deposition. To facilitate the use of grain size as palaeoenvironmental proxy, this study aims to distinguish the main detrital processes that contribute to lacustrine sedimentation across the Tibetan Plateau using grain-size end-member modelling analysis. Between three and five robust grain-size end-member subpopulations were distinguished at different sites from similarly-likely end-member model runs. Their main modes were grouped and linked to common sediment transport and depositional processes that can be associated with contemporary Tibetan climate (precipitation patterns and lake ice phenology, gridded wind and shear stress data from the High Asia Reanalysis) and local catchment configurations. The coarse sands and clays with grain-size modes > 250 mu m and < 2 mu m were probably transported by fluvial processes. Aeolian sands (similar to 200 mu m) and coarse local dust (similar to 60 mu m), transported by saltation and in near-surface suspension clouds, are probably related to occasional westerly storms in winter and spring. Coarse regional dust with modes similar to 25 mu m may derive from near-by sources that keep in longer term suspension. The continuous background dust is differentiated into two robust end members (modes: 5-10 and 2-5 mu m) that may represent different sources, wind directions and/or sediment trapping dynamics from long-range, upper-level westerly and episodic northerly wind transport. According to this study grain-size end members of only fluvial origin contribute small amounts to mean Tibetan lake sedimentation (19 +/- 5%), whereas local to regional aeolian transport and background dust deposition dominate the clastic sedimentation in Tibetan lakes (contributions: 42 +/- 14% and 51 +/- 11%). However, fluvial and alluvial reworking of aeolian material from nearby slopes during summer seems to limit end-member interpretation and should be cross-checked with other proxy information. If not considered as a stand-alone proxy, a high transferability to other regions and sediment archives allows helpful reconstructions of past sedimentation history.
In wetlands or riparian areas, water withdrawal by plants with access to groundwater or the capillary fringe often causes diurnal groundwater fluctuations. Various approaches use the characteristics of these fluctuations for estimation of daily groundwater evapotranspiration rates. The objective of this paper was to review the available methods, compare them with measured evapotranspiration and assess their recharge assumptions. For this purpose, we employed data of 85 rain-free days of a weighable groundwater lysimeter situated at a grassland site in the Spreewald wetland in north-east Germany. Measurements of hourly recharge and daily evapotranspiration rates were used to assess the different approaches. Our results showed that a maximum of 50% of the day to day variance of the daily evapotranspiration rates could be explained by the approaches based on groundwater fluctuations. Simple and more complex methods performed similarly. For some of the approaches, there were indications that erroneous assumptions compensated each other (e.g., when overestimated recharge counteracted underestimated storage change). We found that the usage of longer time spans resulted in improved estimates of the daily recharge rates and that the estimates were further enhanced by including two night averages. When derived from fitting estimates of recharge or evapotranspiration with according measurements the specific yield, needed to convert changes in water level to water volumes, differed considerably among the methods (from 0.022 to 0.064). Thus, the specific yield can be seen as correction factor that compensates for inadequate process descriptions.
We report the results of our investigations on the catchment area, surface sediments, and hydrology of the monsoonal Lonar Lake, central India. Our results indicate that the lake is currently stratified with an anoxic bottom layer, and there is a spatial heterogeneity in the sensitivity of sediment parameters to different environmental processes. In the shallow (0-5 m) near shore oxic-suboxic environments the lithogenic and terrestrial organic content is high and spatially variable, and the organics show degradation in the oxic part. Due to aerial exposure resulting from lake level changes of at least 3m, the evaporitic carbonates are not completely preserved. In the deep water (>5 m) anoxic environment the lithogenics are uniformly distributed and the delta C-13 is an indicator not only for aquatic vs. terrestrial plants but also of lake pH and salinity. The isotopic composition of the evaporites is dependent not only on the isotopic composition of source water (monsoon rainfall and stream inflow) and evaporation, but is also influenced by proximity to the isotopically depleted stream inflow. We conclude that in the deep water environment lithogenic content, and isotopic composition of organic matter can be used for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.
New techniques for high pressure falling sphere viscosimetry in DIA-type large volume presses
(2014)
The paper examines the quality of satellite-abased precipitation estimates for the lower Mahanadi River basin (eastern India). The considered data sets known as 3B42 and 3B42-RT (version 7/7A) are routinely produced by the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) from passive microwave and infrared recordings. While the 3B42-RT data are disseminated in real time, the gauge-aadjusted 3B42 data set is published with a delay of some months. The quality of the two products was assessed in a two-astep procedure. First, the correspondence between the remotely sensed precipitation rates and rain gauge data was evaluated at the subbasin scale. Second, the quality of the rainfall estimates was assessed by analysing their performance in the context of rainfall-arunoff simulation.
At sub-abasin level (4000 to 16 000 km(2)) the satellite-abased areal precipitation estimates were found to be moderately correlated with the gauge-abased counterparts (R-2 of 0.64-0.74 for 3B42 and 0.59-0.72 for 3B42-RT). Significant discrepancies between TRMM data and ground observations were identified at high-aintensity levels. The rainfall depth derived from rain gauge data is often not reflected by the TRMM estimates (hit rate < 0.6 for ground-abased intensities > 80 mm day(-1)). At the same time, the remotely sensed rainfall rates frequently exceed the gauge-abased equivalents (false alarm ratios of 0.2-0.6). In addition, the real-atime product 3B42-RT was found to suffer from a spatially consistent negative bias.
Since the regionalisation of rain gauge data is potentially associated with a number of errors, the above results are subject to uncertainty. Hence, a validation against independent information, such as stream flow, was essential. In this case study, the outcome of rainfall-arunoff simulation experiments was consistent with the above-mentioned findings. The best fit between observed and simulated stream flow was obtained if rain gauge data were used as model input (Nash-Sutcliffe index of 0.76-0.88 at gauges not affected by reservoir operation). This compares to the values of 0.71-0.78 for the gauge-djusted TRMM 3B42 data and 0.65-0.77 for the 3B42-RT real-atime data. Whether the 3B42-RT data are useful in the context of operational runoff prediction in spite of the identified problems remains a question for further research.
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential.
Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.
Integrated biostratigraphic-chemostratigraphic studies provide evidence that the proto-North Atlantic realm witnessed major changes in carbonate platform production in the run-up of the Early Aptian oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 1a. Whereas pervasive growth of Lithocodium microencrusters represents an early harbinger of OAE1a-related environmental perturbation, the subsequent replacement of oligotrophic rudist-coral-nerineid by mesotrophic orbitolinid-oyster communities was clearly associated with the event itself. In order to test the supra-regional relevance of this major community replacement, two shallow-water sections in the southern Lusitanian Basin (Portugal) are investigated by means of geochemistry (carbon and oxygen isotopes), cement petrography and detailed sedimentological analysis. The focus is on a regional, prominent discontinuity surface (S4) at the transition between oligotrophic and mesotrophic carbonate platform production, which might indicate that the major biotic change could have been associated with a phase of non-sedimentation and possibly erosion. The studied sections (Sao Julia, Crismina) provide evidence that the major Early Aptian biotic turnover was preceded by numerous subordinate but significant changes in platform ecology, which mirrored a series of progressive short-term environmental changes in the course of OAE1. Several transient mass occurrences of orbitolinids indicate repeated phases of ecological stress arguably due to enhanced nutrient input and deepening. Small-scale sea-level changes at parasequence level below the major discontinuity surface are revealed by alternations of rudist assemblages dominated by clinger or recumbent forms as well as intercalated hardground and subaerial exposure stages. Expanded phases of subaerial exposure, however, can be largely ruled out following the geochemical and cement-petrographic data presented here. Enhanced continent-derived siliciclastic input characterising the lower orbitolinid-oyster dominated limestones is in support of a shift to more humid conditions during the middle Early Aptian. This is in line with palaeoclimatic data, which propose a southward movement of the mid-latitude arid climate belt during this time. The documented rapid replacement of oligotrophic assemblages by various environmental-stress adapted carbonate platform communities might be seen as explanation for ongoing Early Aptian proto-North Atlantic carbonate production during a time of widespread platform demise and drowning in the northern Tethyan realm. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Indian Monsoon Variability during the past Millennium has been simulated with the ECHAM5 model in two different time slices: Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The simulations are compared with new centennial-resolving paleo-reconstructions inferred from various well-dated multi-proxies from two core regions, the Himalaya and Central India. A qualitative moisture index is derived from the proxies and compared with simulated moisture anomalies.
The reconstructed paleo-hydrological changes between the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly depict a dipole pattern between Himalaya and Central India, which is also captured by the model.
In the Medieval Climate Anomaly the model exhibits stronger (weaker) dipole signals during summer (winter) compared to Little Ice Age. In summer (winter) months of "Medieval Climate Anomaly minus Little Ice Age" the model simulates wetter conditions over eastern (western and central) Himalaya. Over Central India, a simulated weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon during warmer climate is coincident with reconstructed drying signal in the Lonar Lake record.
Based on the model simulations, we can differentiate three physical mechanisms which can lead to the moisture anomalies: (i) the western and central Himalaya are influenced by extra-tropical Westerlies during winter, (ii) the eastern Himalaya is affected by summer variations of temperature gradient between Bay of Bengal and Indian subcontinent and by a zonal band of intensified Indian-East Asian monsoon link north of 25 degrees N, and (iii) Central India is dominated by summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Arabian Sea which have an effect on the large-scale advection of moist air masses. The temperatures in the Arabian Sea are linked to the Ind Pacific Warm Pool, which modulates the Indian monsoon strength. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Ostracod shells from the archaeological site Gesher BenotYa'aqov (GBY) in the upper Jordan River Valley (Israel) were investigated to improve the understanding of the environmental conditions of the Acheulian occupation site during the early-mid Pleistocene transition (0.78 Ma). The diverse ostracod assemblage consists of 28 species. The distribution of most of the recorded species in the region today shows that the hydrological conditions at the early-mid Pleistocene transition were not fundamentally different from the modern ones. However, the predominance of Candona neglecta shells in the GBY sequence probably indicates cooler climatic conditions than today. Shells of Candona angulata in the artefact-richer upper half of the sequence suggest a slight salinity increase in the ancient Hula Lake from pure freshwater to slightly oligohaline conditions. This shift probably resulted from wetter conditions and a more stable lake environment with increased residence time of the lake water and stronger influence of evaporation. Shells of the brackish water ostracod Cyprideis torosa and the slightly halophilic Heterocypris sauna and Plesiocypridopsis newtoni were recorded only rarely suggesting that the lake maintained an outlet through the entire period represented by the GBY sequence. Shells of Gomphocythere ortali in GBY cycles 1 and 2 imply that a permanent freshwater stream existed close to the site. Humphcypris subterranea shells in cycles 3-5 provide further evidence that a tributary entered the lake from the south in contrast to the modern setting with the north-south flowing Jordan River at GBY. Statistical analysis of the quantitative ostracod data from GBY identified a group of samples from layers containing more abundant stone artefacts and another group of samples from layers with scarce artefacts. Samples from layers containing more abundant artefacts have relatively high abundances of C. angulata, Darwinula stevensoni and Physocypria kraepelini shells and include rare shells of Ilyocypris hartmanni, Ilyocypris salebrosa, Heterocypris incongniens and Pseudocandona sp. 2 which do not occur in the other samples. The presence of P. kraepelini and H. incongruens shells in artefact-richer sediments possibly indicates poor bottom water oxygenation in the ancient Hula lake sometimes during the periods of Acheulian occupation. However, more detailed studies are required to assess whether lower dissolved oxygen levels in the lake resulted from a slight lake level rise and possibly higher nutrient flux to the lake during wetter conditions or whether hominins already impacted lake's nutrient status by butchering at its shore or by burning of near-shore vegetation. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Quantitative geochemical modeling is today applied in a variety of geological environments from the petrogenesis of igneous rocks to radioactive waste disposal. In addition, the development of thermodynamic databases and computer programs to calculate equilibrium phase diagrams has greatly advanced our ability to model geodynamic processes. Combined with experimental data on elemental partitioning and isotopic fractionation, thermodynamic forward modeling unfolds enormous capacities that are far from exhausted.
In metamorphic petrology the combination of thermodynamic and trace element forward modeling can be used to study and to quantify processes at spatial scales from mu m to km. The thermodynamic forward models utilize Gibbs energy minimization to quantify mineralogical changes along a reaction path of a chemically open fluid/rock system. These results are combined with mass balanced trace element calculations to determine the trace element distribution between rock and melt/fluid during the metamorphic evolution. Thus, effects of mineral reactions, fluid-rock interaction and element transport in metamorphic rocks on the trace element and isotopic composition of minerals, rocks and percolating fluids or melts can be predicted.
Here we illustrate the capacities of combined thermodynamic-geochemical modeling based on two examples relevant to mass transfer during metamorphism. The first example focuses on fluid-rock interaction in and around a blueschist-facies shear zone in felsic gneisses, where fluid-induced mineral reactions and their effects on boron (B) concentrations and isotopic compositions in white mica are modeled. In the second example, fluid release from a subducted slab, the associated transport of B as well as variations in B concentrations and isotopic compositions in liberated fluids and residual rocks are modeled. We compare the modeled results of both examples to geochemical data of natural minerals and rocks and demonstrate that the combination of thermodynamic and geochemical models enables quantification of metamorphic processes and insights into element cycling that would have been unattainable if only one model approach was chosen. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Oxygen isotope compositions are reported for the first time for the Himalayan metabasites of the Kaghan Valley, Pakistan in this study. The highest metamorphic grades are recorded in the north of the valley, near the India-Asia collision boundary, in the form of high-pressure (HP: Group I) and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP: Group II) eclogites. The rocks show a step-wise decrease in grade from the UHP to HP eclogites and amphibolites. The protoliths of these metabasites were the Permian Panjal Trap basalts (ca. 267 +/- 2.4 Ma), which were emplaced along the northern margin of India when it was part of Gondwana. After the break-up of Gondwana, India drifted northward, subducted beneath Asia and underwent UHP metamorphism during the Eocene (ca. 45 +/- 1.2 Ma). At the regional scale, amphibolites, Group I and II eclogites yielded delta O-18 values of +5.84 and +5.91 parts per thousand, +1.66 to +424 parts per thousand, and -2.25 to +0.76 parts per thousand, respectively, relative to VSMOW. On a more local scale, within a single eclogite body, the delta O-18 values were the lowest (-2.25 to-1.44%.) in the central, the best preserved (least retrograded) parts, and show a systematic increase outward into more retrograded rocks, reaching up to +0.12 parts per thousand. These values are significantly lower than the typical mantle values for basalts of + 5.7 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand. The unusually low or negative delta O-18 values in Group II eclogites potentially resulted from hydrothermal alteration of the protoliths by interactions with meteoric water when the Indian plate was at southern high latitudes (similar to 60 degrees S). The stepwise increase in delta O-18 values, among different eclogite bodies in general and at single outcrop-scales in particular, reflects differing degrees of resetting of the oxygen isotope compositions during exhumation-related retrogression. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The real-time recognition and precise correction of baseline shifts in strong-motion records is a critical issue for GPS and accelerometer combined processing. This paper proposes a method to adaptively recognize and correct baseline shifts in strong-motion records by utilizing GPS measurements using two phases Kalman filter. By defining four kinds of learning statistics and criteria, the time series of estimated baseline shifts can be divided into four time intervals: initialization, static, transient and permanent. During the time interval in which the transient baseline shift is recognized, the dynamic noise of the Kalman filter system and the length of the baseline shifts estimation window are adaptively adjusted to yield a robust integration solution. The validations from an experimental and real datasets show that acceleration baseline shifts can be precisely recognized and corrected, thus, the combined system adaptively adjusted the estimation strategy to get a more robust solution. (C) 2014 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The hydrology of western Central Asia is highly sensitive to climatic perturbations. In order to understand its long-term variability and to infer linkages between precipitation and atmospheric and oceanic systems, we conducted a thorough sedimentary and geochemical study on a composite core retrieved in lake Son Kul (central Kyrgyzstan). A multi-proxy approach was conducted on lake sediments based on grain size analyses, magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and carbon and oxygen isotope analyses on bulk and biogenic materials (ostracoda and molluscs shells) at a resolution equivalent to ca 40 years, aiming to characterise the sequence of palaeolimnological changes in Son Kul.
As indicated by delta O-18 record of bulk carbonates, mainly consisting of aragonite, the Holocene hydrological balance was negative during most of time, suggesting an excess of evaporation (E) over precipitation (P). Limnological conditions fluctuated rapidly before 5000 cal yr BP indicating significant changes in regional hydrology and climate. In particular, the long-term negative hydrological balance was impeded by several short stages with marked increase of precipitation, lasting several decades to a few centuries (e.g., 8300-8200, 6900-6700, 6300-6100, 5500-5400, 5300-5200 and 3100 -3000 cal yr BP). Precipitation changes as inferred from 8180 data are also documented by increased minerogenic detritus and higher TOC. We propose that the seasonal pattern of precipitation varied transiently in western Central Asia during the Holocene, although evaporation changes may also account for the rapid changes observed in delta O-18 data. When the annual water balance was less critical (P <= E), the excess of water might be ascribed to increased precipitation during cold seasons mainly because winter precipitation has more negative delta O-18 than its summer equivalent. Conversely, when the annual water balance is negative (P E), the moisture was mainly delivered during the warm season, as between 5000 and 2000 cal yr BP. Our results thus imply that moisture sources could have changed as well during the Holocene. Moisture was delivered as today mainly during summer from the extended Caspian-Aral Basin and eastern Mediterranean, although Arctic and even North Atlantic seas might be important moisture sources when seasonal precipitation was dominated by winter precipitation. We hypothesise that warming Arctic and North Atlantic seas were important for the North Hemisphere circulation during the cold season. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Submerged macrophytes can stabilise clear water conditions in shallow lakes. However, many existing models for deep lakes neglect their impact. Here, we tested the hypothesis that submerged macrophytes can affect the water clarity in deep lakes. A one-dimensional, vertically resolved macrophyte model was developed based on PCLake and coupled to SALMO-1D and GOTM hydrophysics and validated against field data. Validation showed good coherence in dynamic growth patterns and colonisation depths. In our simulations the presence of submerged macrophytes resulted in up to 50% less phytoplankton biomass in the shallowest simulated lake (11 m) and still 15% less phytoplankton was predicted in 100 m deep oligotrophic lakes. Nutrient loading, lake depth, and lake shape had a strong influence on macrophyte effects. Nutrient competition was found to be the strongest biological interaction. Despite a number of limitations, the derived dynamic lake model suggests significant effects of submerged macrophytes on deep lake water quality. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sediment-discharge hysteresis loops are frequently analyzed to facilitate the understanding of sediment transport processes. Hysteresis patterns, however, are often complex and their interpretation can be complicated. Particularly, quantifying hysteresis patterns remains a problematic issue. Moreover, it is currently unknown how much data is required for analyzing sediment-discharge hysteresis loops in a given area. These open questions and challenges motivated us to develop a new method for quantifying suspended-sediment hysteresis. Subsequently, we applied the new hysteresis index to three suspended-sediment and discharge datasets from a small tropical rainforest catchment. The datasets comprised a different number of events and sampling sites. Our analyses show three main findings: (1) datasets restricted to only few events, which is typical for rapid assessment surveys, were always sufficient to identify the dominating hysteresis pattern in our research area. Furthermore, some of these small datasets contained multiple-peak events that allowed identifying intra-event exhaustion effects and hence, limitations in sediment supply. (2) Datasets comprising complete hydrological years were particularly useful for analyzing seasonal dynamics of hysteresis. These analyses revealed an exhaustion of hysteresis on the inter-event scale which also points to a limited sediment supply. (3) Datasets comprising measurements from two consecutive gauges installed at the catchment outlet and on a slope within that catchment allowed analyzing the change of hysteresis patterns along the flowpath. On the slope, multiple-peak events showed a stronger intra-event exhaustion of hysteresis than at the catchment outlet. Furthermore, exhaustion of hysteresis on the inter-event scale was not evident on the slope but occurred at the catchment outlet. Our results indicate that even small sediment datasets can provide valuable insights into sediment transport processes of small catchments. Furthermore, our results may serve as a first guideline on what to expect from an analysis of hysteresis patterns for datasets of varying quality and quantity. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Shallow inland water bodies in Malawi continue to be threatened by various environmental challenges despite their importance to the fisheries industry. Due to the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic disturbances, disentangling the effect of the two may be a complicated process. The littoral zone of most water bodies is important in environmental reconstructions including pollution and lake level monitoring. This study used a littoral zone, transect-based approach employing multi-proxy palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct recent environmental change (ca. 100 yrs.) in Lake Malombe in the Malawi Rift, East Africa. The results of the study could inform fisheries management in Lake Malombe, which experienced a catastrophic decline in fish stocks. Results support documentary evidence for the complete desiccation of the lake less than 100 years ago. Subsequently, there is evidence for accelerated eutrophication in the recent past. In light of these results, it is concluded that transect sampling approaches rather than relying on single core measurements, and the need for careful consideration of the types of proxy, are significant considerations in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.
We assessed tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) sensitivity to natural disturbance by drought, fire, and dieback with a 7300-year-long paleorecord. We analyzed pollen assemblages, charcoal accumulation rates, and higher plant biomarker compounds (average chain length [ACL] of n-alkanes) in sediments from Wai 'anapanapa, a small lake near the upper forest limit and the mean trade wind inversion ('IWI) in Hawai`i. The paleorecord of ACL suggests increased drought frequency and a lower awl elevation from 2555-1323 cal yr B.P. and 606-334 cal yr B.P. Charcoal began to accumulate and a novel fire regime was initiated ca. 880 cal yr B.P., followed by a decreased fire return interval at ca. 550 cal yr B.P. Diebacks occurred at 2931, 2161, 1162, and 306 cal yr B.P., and two of these were independent of drought or fire. Pollen assemblages indicate that on average species composition changed only 2.8% per decade. These dynamics, though slight, were significantly associated with disturbance. The direction of species composition change varied with disturbance type. Drought was associated with significantly more vines and lianas; fire was associated with an increase in the tree fern Sadleria and indicators of open, disturbed landscapes at the expense of epiphytic ferns; whereas stand-scale dieback was associated with an increase in the tree fern Cibotium. Though this cloud forest was dynamic in response to past disturbance, it has recovered, suggesting a resilient TMCF with no evidence of state change in vegetation type (e.g., grassland or shrubland).
Soil in a changing world is subject to both anthropogenic and environmental stresses. Soil monitoring is essential to assess the magnitude of changes in soil variables and how they affect ecosystem processes and human livelihoods. However, we cannot always be sure which sampling design is best for a given monitoring task. We employed a rotational stratified simple random sampling (rotStRS) for the estimation of temporal changes in the spatial mean of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at three sites in central Panama in 2009, 2010 and 2011. To assess this design's efficiency we compared the resulting estimates of the spatial mean and variance for 2009 with those gained from stratified simple random sampling (StRS), which was effectively the data obtained on the first sampling time, and with an equivalent unexecuted simple random sampling (SRS). The poor performance of geometrical stratification and the weak predictive relationship between measurements of successive years yielded no advantage of sampling designs more complex than SRS. The failure of stratification may be attributed to the small large-scale variability of K-s. Revisiting previously sampled locations was not beneficial because of the large small-scale variability in combination with destructive sampling, resulting in poor consistency between revisited samples. We conclude that for our K-s monitoring scheme, repeated SRS is equally effective as rotStRS. Some problems of small-scale variability might be overcome by collecting several samples at close range to reduce the effect of small-scale variation. Finally, we give recommendations on the key factors to consider when deciding whether to use stratification and rotation in a soil monitoring scheme.
Biomass allometries and coarse root biomass distribution of mountain birch in southern Iceland
(2014)
Root systems are an important pool of biomass and carbon in forest ecosystems. However, most allometric studies on forest trees focus only on the aboveground components. When estimated, root biomass has most often been calculated by using a fixed conversion factor from aboveground biomass. In order to study the size-related development of the root system of native mountain birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. ssp. czerepanovii), we collected the coarse root system of 25 different aged birch trees (stem diameter at 50 cm length between 0.2 and 14.1 cm) and characterized them by penetration depth (< 1 m) and root thickness. Based on this dataset, allometric functions for coarse roots (> 5 mm and > 2 mm), root stock, total belowground biomass and aboveground biomass components were calculated by a nonlinear and a linear fitting approach. The study showed that coarse root biomass of mountain birch was almost exclusively (> 95 weight-%) located in the top 30 cm, even in a natural old-growth woodland. By using a cross-validation approach, we found that the nonlinear fitting procedure performed better than the linear approach with respect to predictive power. In addition, our results underscore that general assumptions of fixed conversion factors lead to an underestimation of the belowground biomass. Thus, our results provide allometric functions for a more accurate root biomass estimation to be utilized in inventory reports and ecological studies.