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The ‘bomb-pulse’ method is a chronological approach to further constrain the age of speleothems that grew between 1950 CE – present. Establishing dependable chronological constraints is crucial for modern calibration studies of speleothems to instrumental climate records, which provides the basis for paleoclimate interpretations. However, a large unknown is how 14C is transferred from the atmosphere to any individual speleothem owing to the site-specific residence times of organic matter above cave systems. Here, we employ the bomb-pulse method to build chronologies from 14C measurements in combination with a new unsaturated zone C model which considers C decomposition as a continuum, to better understand unsaturated zone 14C dynamics. The bomb-pulse curves of eight speleothems from southern Australia in three contrasting climatic regions; the semi-arid Wellington Caves site, the mediterranean Golgotha Cave site and the montane Yarrangobilly Caves site, are investigated. Overall, the modelled 14C bomb-pulse curves produce excellent fits with measured 14C speleothem data (r2 = 0.82–0.99). The C modelling reveals that unsaturated zone C is predominately young at the semi-arid site, with a weighted-mean residence time of 32 years and that tree root respiration is likely an important source of vadose CO2. At the montane site, ∼39% of C is young (<1 years), but the weighted-mean C ages are older (145–220 years). The mediterranean site has very little contribution from young C (<12%: 0–1 years), with weighted-mean ages between 157 and 245 years, likely due to greater adsorption of organic matter in the upper vadose zone during matrix flow, and remobilisation of C from young syngenetic karst. New end members for low speleothem Dead Carbon Proportion (DCP) are identified (2.19% and 1.65%, respectively) for Australian montane and semi-arid zone speleothems, where oversupply of modern CO2 in the vadose zone leads to lower DCP. It is also demonstrated that DCP can be quite variable over small time scales, that processes may be difficult to untangle and a constant DCP assumption is likely invalid. DCP variability over time is mainly controlled by the changes vadose zone CO2, where vegetation regeneration, wild-fires and karst hydrology play an important role.
An Overview of Using Weather Radar for Climatological Studies: Successes, Challenges, and Potential
(2019)
Weather radars have been widely used to detect and quantify precipitation and nowcast severe weather for more than 50 years. Operational weather radars generate huge three-dimensional datasets that can accumulate to terabytes per day. So it is essential to review what can be done with existing vast amounts of data, and how we should manage the present datasets for the future climatologists. All weather radars provide the reflectivity factor, and this is the main parameter to be archived. Saving reflectivity as volumetric data in the original spherical coordinates allows for studies of the three-dimensional structure of precipitation, which can be applied to understand a number of processes, for example, analyzing hail or thunderstorm modes. Doppler velocity and polarimetric moments also have numerous applications for climate studies, for example, quality improvement of reflectivity and rain rate retrievals, and for interrogating microphysical and dynamical processes. However, observational data alone are not useful if they are not accompanied by sufficient metadata. Since the lifetime of a radar ranges between 10 and 20 years, instruments are typically replaced or upgraded during climatologically relevant time periods. As a result, present metadata often do not apply to past data. This paper outlines the work of the Radar Task Team set by the Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC) and summarizes results from a recent survey on the existence and availability of long time series. We also provide recommendations for archiving current and future data and examples of climatological studies in which radar data have already been used.
Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.
With the onset of the global food crisis, the discussion about the use and misuse of agricultural market interventions regained academic attention. As a result of economies of scale, centralized policy implementation at the regional level has the potential to reduce the budgetary costs of policies. Borrowing from the literature on international unions and international policy coordination, we develop a conceptual framework to analyze when regional policy implementation makes sense. This is the case whenever spill-overs from centralization are large and policy preferences, driven by country-specific characteristics, are homogeneous. Subsequently, we examine the advantageousness of centralized policy implementation for the West African region regarding the most common food security policies. We show that centralization of trade policies and emergency food reserves is beneficial, while buffer stocks, safety net policies, and producer support policies should be implemented at the national level.
The processes that control long term landscape evolution in continental interiors and, in particular, along passive margins such as in southern Africa, are still the subject of much debate (e.g. Braun, 2018). Although today the Namibian margin is characterized by an arid climate, it has experienced climatic fluctuations during the Cenozoic and, yet, to date no study has documented the potential role of climate on its erosion history. In western Namibia, the Brandberg Massif, an erosional remnant or inselberg, provides a good opportunity to document the Cenozoic denudation history of the margin using the relationship between rock cooling or exhumation ages and their elevation. Here we provide new apatite (UThSm)/He dates on the Brandberg Inselberg that range from 151 +/- 12 to 30 +/- 2 Ma. Combined with existing apatite fission track data, they yield new constraints on the denudation history of the margin. These data document two main cooling phases since continental break-up 130 Myr ago, a rapid one (similar to 10 degrees C/Myr) following break-up and a slower one (similar to 12 degrees C/Myr) between 65 and 35 Ma. We interpret them respectively to be related to escarpment erosion following rifting and continental break-up and as a phase of enhanced denudation during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We propose that during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum chemical weathering was important and contributed significantly to the denudation of the Namibian margin and the formation of a pediplain around the Brandberg and enhanced valley incision within the massif. Additionally, aridification of the region since 35 Ma has resulted in negligible denudation rates since that time. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The surface deformation associated with the 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile was recorded in great detail before, during and after the event. The high data quality of the continuous GPS (cGPS) observations has facilitated a number of studies that model the postseismic deformation signal with a combination of relocking, afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation using linear rheology for the upper mantle. Here, we investigate the impact of using linear Maxwell or power-law rheology with a 2D geomechanical-numerical model to better understand the relative importance of the different processes that control the postseismic deformation signal. Our model results reveal that, in particular, the modeled cumulative vertical postseismic deformation pattern in the near field (< 300 km from the trench) is very sensitive to the location of maximum afterslip and choice of rheology. In the model with power-law rheology, the afterslip maximum is located at 20-35 km rather than > 50 km depth as suggested in previous studies. The explanation for this difference is that in the model with power-law rheology the relaxation of coseismically imposed differential stresses occurs mainly in the lower crust. However, even though the model with power-law rheology probably has more potential to explain the vertical postseismic signal in the near field, the uncertainty of the applied temperature field is substantial, and this needs further investigations and improvements.
Thrombolite and stromatolite habitats are becoming increasingly recognized as important refuges for invertebrates during Phanerozoic Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs); it is posited that oxygenic photosynthesis by cyanobacteria in these microbialites provided a refuge from anoxic conditions (i.e., the "microbialite refuge" hypothesis). Here, we test this hypothesis by investigating the distribution of ~34, 500 benthic invertebrate fossils found in ~100 samples from a microbialite succession that developed following the latest Permian mass extinction event on the Great Bank of Guizhou (South China), representing microbial (stromatolites and thrombolites) and non-microbial facies. The stromatolites were the least taxonomically diverse facies, and the thrombolites also recorded significantly lower diversities when compared to the non-microbial facies. Based on the distribution and ornamentation of the bioclasts within the thrombolites and stromatolites, the bioclasts are inferred to have been transported and concentrated in the non-microbial fabrics, that is, cavities around the microbial framework. Therefore, many of the identified metazoans from the post-extinction microbialites are not observed to have been living within a microbial mat. Furthermore, the lifestyle of many of the taxa identified from the microbialites was not suited for, or even amenable to, life within a benthic microbial mat. The high diversity of oxygen-dependent metazoans in the non-microbial facies on the Great Bank of Guizhou, and inferences from geochemical records, suggests that the microbialites and benthic communities developed in oxygenated environments, which disproves that the microbes were the source of the oxygenation. Instead, we posit that microbialite successions represent a taphonomic window for exceptional preservation of the biota, similar to a Konzentrat-Lagerstatte, which has allowed for diverse fossil assemblages to be preserved during intervals of poor preservation.
Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as a complement to fluctuating renewable energy systems is a reliable technology to guarantee continuous energy supply for heating and air conditioning. We investigated a high-temperature (HT) mono-well system (c. 100 degrees C), where the well screens are separated vertically within the aquifer, as an alternative to conventional doublet ATES systems for an underground storage in northern Oman. We analysed the impact of thermal inference between injection and extraction well screens on the heat recovery factor (HRF) in order to define the optimal screento-screen distance for best possible systems efficiency. Two controlling interference parameters were considered: the vertical screen-to-screen distance and aquifer heterogeneities. The sensitivity study shows that with decreasing screen-to-screen distances, thermal interference increases storage performance. A turning point is reached if the screen distance is too close, causing either water breakthrough or negative thermal interference between the screens. Our simulations show that a combined heat plume with spherical geometry results in the highest heat recovery factors due to the lowest surface area to volume ratios. Thick aquifers for mono-well HT-ATES are thus not mandatory Our study shows that a HT-ATES mono-well system is a feasible storage design with high heat recovery factors for continuous cooling or heating purposes.
We studied FeCO3 using Fe K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy at pressures up to 54 GPa and temperatures above 2000 K. First-principles calculations of Fe at the K-edge in FeCO3 were performed to support the interpretation of the XANES spectra. The variation of iron absorption edge features with pressure and temperature in FeCO3 matches well with recently reported observations on FeCO3 at extreme conditions, and provides new insight into the stability of Fe-carbonates in Earth's mantle. Here we show that at conditions of the mid-lower mantle, ~50 GPa and ~2200 K, FeCO3 melts and partially decomposes to high-pressure Fe3O4. Carbon (diamond) and oxygen are also inferred products of the reaction. We constrained the thermodynamic phase boundary between crystalline FeCO3 and melt to be at 51(1) GPa and ~1850 K. We observe that at 54(1) GPa, temperature-induced spin crossover of Fe2+ takes place from low to high spin such that at 1735(100) K, all iron in FeCO3 is in the high-spin state. A comparison between experiment and theory provides a more detailed understanding of FeCO3 decomposition observed in X-ray absorption spectra and helps to explain spectral changes due to pressure-induced spin crossover in FeCO3 at ambient temperature.
One commonly proposed method to limit flood risk is land-use or zoning policies which regulates construction in high-risk areas, in order to reduce economic exposure and its vulnerability to flood events. Although such zoning regulations can be effective in limiting trends in flood risk, they also have adverse impacts on society, for instance by limiting local development of areas near the water. In order to judge whether proposed land-use or zoning policies are a net benefit to society, they should be accepted or rejected based on a societal cost-benefit analysis (CBA). However, conducting a CBA of zoning regulation is complex and comprehensive guidelines of how to do such an analysis are lacking. We offer guidelines for good practice. In order to assess the costs and benefits of zoning as a climate change adaption strategy, they should be assessed at a societal level in order to account for public good features of flood risk reduction strategies, and because costs in one area can be benefits in another region. We propose a multistep process: first, determine the spatial extent of the zoning policy and how interconnected the zoned area is to other locations; second, conduct a CBA using monetary costs and benefits estimated from an integrated hydro-economic model to investigate if total benefits exceed total costs; third, conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the main assumptions; fourth, conduct a multicriteria analysis (MCA) of the normative outcomes of a zoning policy. A desirable policy is preferred in both the CBA and MCA. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Human Water > Methods
Identifying the provenance signature and geodynamic setting on which sedimentary basins at convergent margins grow is challenging since they result from coupled erosional and tectonic processes, which shape the evolution of source areas and the stress regime. The Early Cretaceous evolution of the northern Andes of Colombia is characterized by extensional tectonics and the subsequent formation of a marginal basin. The Abejorral Formation and coeval volcano-sedimentary rocks are exposed along the western flank and axis of the Central Cordillera. They comprise an Early Cretaceous transgressive sequence initially accumulated in fluvial deltaic environments, which switched towards a deep-marine setting, and are interpreted as the infilling record of a marginal back-arc basin. Available provenance data suggest that Permian-Triassic metamorphic and less abundant Jurassic magmatic rocks forming the basement of the Central Cordillera sourced the Abejorral Formation. New detailed volcanic and metamorphic lithics analyses, conventional and varietal study of heavy minerals, detrital rutile mineral chemistry, allowed us to document changes in the source areas defined by the progressive appearance of both higher-grade and more distal low-grade metamorphic sources, which switched from pelitic to dominantly mafic in composition. Crystallochemical indexes of clay minerals of fine-grained rocks of the Abejorral Formation suggest that samples located close to the Romeral Fault System show characteristics of low-medium P-T low-grade metamorphism, whereas rocks located farther to the northeast preserve primary diagenetic features, which suggest a high heat-flow accumulation setting. We interpret that the Abejorral Formation records the progressive unroofing of the Central Cordillera basement that was being rapidly exhumed, as well as the incorporation of distal subduction-related metamorphic complexes to the west in response either to the widening of extensional front or the reactivation of fault structures on the oceanward margin of the basin. Although the deformational record of the Abejorral Formation would have resulted from over-imposed episodes, our new geochronological constraints suggest that this sedimentary sequence must have been deformed before the Paleocene due to the presence of arc-related intrusive non-deformed magmatic rocks with a crystallization age of ca. 60 Ma.
The paper presents a historical long-distance communication system based on beacon fires in one of the most dynamic and rugged mountain ranges of the world, the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas. It was deployed as an early warning system for glacial lake outburst floods, which caused devastating impacts on settlement zones and infrastructure until the middle of the twentieth century. The study revealed that the beacon fire systems were operated in distinct valleys spread over the entire Hindu Kush-Karakoram Region. The remarkable fact is the establishment of fire posts in highly difficult accessible mountain environments with communication distances of several hundred kilometres for individual beacon lines. The warning system was a cooperative natural hazard management, which was operated even across distinct ethnic groups. Distant societies, formerly perceived as isolated villages by physical barriers of the high mountain relief, were in historical times connected not only by challenging trade routes but also by a fast working optical communication system. The findings are discussed in the context of a future sustainable natural hazard management.
Main group pallasite meteorites are samples of a single early magmatic planetesimal, dominated by metal and olivine but containing accessory chromite, sulfide, phosphide, phosphates, and rare phosphoran olivine. They represent mixtures of core and mantle materials, but the environment of formation is poorly understood, with a quiescent core-mantle boundary, violent core-mantle mixture, or surface mixture all recently suggested. Here, we review main group pallasite data sets and petrologic characteristics, and present new observations on the low-MnO pallasite Brahin that contains abundant fragmental olivine, but also rounded and angular olivine and potential evidence of sulfide-phosphide liquid immiscibility. A reassessment of the literature shows that low-MnO and high-FeO subgroups preferentially host rounded olivine and low-temperature P2O5-rich phases such as the Mg-phosphate farringtonite and phosphoran olivine. These phases form after metal and silicate reservoirs back-react during decreasing temperature after initial separation, resulting in oxidation of phosphorus and chromium. Farringtonite and phosphoran olivine have not been found in the common subgroup PMG, which are mechanical mixtures of olivine, chromite with moderate Al2O3 contents, primitive solid metal, and evolved liquid metal. Lower concentrations of Mn in olivine of the low-MnO PMG subgroup, and high concentrations of Mn in low-Al2O3 chromites, trace the development and escape of sulfide-rich melt in pallasites and the partially chalcophile behavior for Mn in this environment. Pallasites with rounded olivine indicate that the core-mantle boundary of their planetesimal may not be a simple interface but rather a volume in which interactions between metal, silicate, and other components occur.
We investigate the thermal and structural evolution of asymmetric rifted margin using numerical modeling and geological observations derived from the Western Pyrenees. Our numerical model provides a self-consistent physical evolution of the top basement heat flow during asymmetric rifting. The model shows a pronounced thermal asymmetry that is caused by migration of the rift center toward the upper plate. The same process creates a diachronism for the record of maximum heat flow and maximum temperatures (T-max) in basal rift sequences. The Mauleon-Arzacq basin (W-Pyrenees) corresponds to a former mid-Cretaceous asymmetric hyperextended rift basin. New vitrinite reflectance data in addition to existing data sets from this basin reveal an asymmetry in the distribution of peak heat (T-max) with respect to the rift shoulders, where highest values are located at the former upper- to lower-plate transition. This data set from the Arzacq-Mauleon field study confirms for the first time the thermal asymmetry predicted by numerical models. Numerical modeling results also suggest that complexities in synrift thermal architecture could arise when hanging-wall-derived extensional allochthons and related T-max become part of the lower plate and are transported away from the upper- to lower-plate transition. This study emphasizes the limitations of the common approach to integrate punctual thermal data from pre-rift to synrift sedimentary sequences in order to describe the rift-related thermal evolution and paleothermal gradients at the scale of a rift basin or a rifted margin.
The application of electrical resistivity tomography to peatlands supports conventional coring by providing data on the current condition of peatlands, including data on stratigraphy, peat properties and thickness of organic deposits. Data on the current condition of drained peatlands are particularly required to improve estimates of carbon storage as well as losses and emissions from agriculturally used peatlands. However, most of the studies focusing on electrical resistivity tomography surveys have been conducted on natural peatlands with higher groundwater levels. Peatlands drained for agriculture have not often been studied using geophysical techniques. Drained sites are characterized by low groundwater levels and high groundwater fluctuations during the year, which lead to varying levels of water saturation. To validate better electrical resistivity tomography surveys of drained peatlands, the aim of this laboratory study is to investigate the influence of varying water saturation levels on electrical conductivity (reciprocal of resistivity) for a variety of peat and gyttja types, as well as for different degrees of peat decomposition. Results show that different levels of water saturation strongly influence bulk electrical conductivity. Distinct differences in this relationship exist between peat and gyttja substrates and between different degrees of peat decomposition. Peat shows an exponential relationship for all degrees of decomposition, whereas gyttja, in particular organic-rich gyttja, is characterized by a rather unimodal relationship. The slopes for the relationship between electrical conductivity and water content are steeper at high degrees of decomposition than for peat of low degrees of decomposition. These results have direct implications for field electrical resistivity tomography surveys. In drained peatlands that are strongly susceptible to drying, electrical resistivity tomography surveys have a high potential to monitor the actual field water content. In addition, at comparable water saturations, high or low degrees of decomposition can be inferred from electrical conductivity.
The sedimentary record of the Dead Sea provides an exceptional high-resolution archive of past climate changes in the drought-sensitive eastern Mediterranean-Levant, a key region for the development of humankind at the boundary of global climate belts. Moreover, it is the only deep hypersaline lake known to have deposited long sequences of finely laminated, annually deposited sediments (i.e. varves) of varied compositions, including aragonite, gypsum, halite and clastic sediments. Vast efforts have been made over the years to decipher the environmental information stored in these evaporitic-clastic sequences spanning from the Pleistocene Lake Amora to the Holocene Dead Sea. A general characterisation of sediment facies has been derived from exposed sediment sections, as well as from shallow- and deep-water sediment cores. During high lake stands and episodes of positive water budget, mostly during glacial times, alternating aragonite and detritus laminae (‘aad’ facies) were accumulated, whereas during low lake stands and droughts, prevailing during interglacials, laminated detritus (‘ld’ facies) and laminated halite (‘lh’ facies) dominate the sequence. In this paper, we (i) review the three types of laminated sediments of the Dead Sea sedimentary record (‘aad’, ‘ld’ and ‘lh’ facies), (ii) discuss their modes of formation, deposition and accumulation, and their interpretation as varves, and (iii) illustrate how Dead Sea varves are utilized for palaeoclimate reconstructions and for establishing floating chronologies.
Rapid local adaptation frequently occurs during the spread of invading species. It remains unclear, however, how consistent, and therefore potentially predictable, such patterns of local adaptation are. One approach to this question is to measure patterns of local differentiation in functional traits and plasticity levels in invasive species in multiple regions. Finding consistent patterns of local differentiation in replicate regions suggests that these patterns are adaptive. Further, this outcome indicates that the invading species likely responds predictably to selection along environmental gradients, even though standing genetic variation is likely to have been reduced during introduction. We studied local differentiation in the invasive annual plant Erodium cicutarium in two invaded regions, California and Chile. We collected seeds from across strong gradients in precipitation and temperature in Mediterranean-climate parts of the two regions (10 populations per region). We grew seeds from maternal families from these populations through two generations and exposed the second generation to contrasting levels of water and nutrient availability. We measured growth, flowering time and leaf functional traits across these treatments to obtain trait means and plasticity measures. We found strong differentiation among populations in all traits. Plants from drier environments flowered earlier, were less plastic in flowering time and reached greater size in all treatments. Correlations among traits within regions suggested a coordinated evolutionary response along environmental gradients associated with growing season length. There was little divergence in traits and trait intercorrelations between regions, but strongly parallel divergence in traits within regions. Similar, statistically consistent patterns of local trait differentiation across two regions suggest that local adaptation to environmental gradients has aided the spread of this invasive species, and that the formation of ecotypes in newly invaded environments has been relatively consistent and predictable.
Ground and space-based geomagnetic data were used in the investigation of the longitudinal, seasonal and lunar phase dependence of the equatorial counter electrojet (CEJ) occurrence in the Peruvian, Brazilian, African, Indian and Philippine sectors during geomagnetically quiet days from the solar cycle 24 (2008 to 2018). We found that CEJ events occur more frequently during the morning (MCEJ) than in the afternoon (ACEJ). The highest MCEJ and ACEJ occurrence rates were observed for the Brazilian sector. Distinct seasonal dependence was found for each longitudinal sector under investigation. The lunar phase dependence was determined for the first time for the Philippine sector (longitude 125 degrees E), and it was shown to be less pronounced than in the Peruvian, Brazilian and African sectors. We demonstrate that differences in CEJ rates derived from ground-based and satellite data can arise from the longitudinal separation between low-latitude and equatorial stations that are used to determine the signal and its consequent time delay in their sunrise/sunset times at ionospheric heights.
Lineament mapping, which is an important part of any structural geological investigation, is made more efficient and easier by the availability of optical as well as radar remote sensing data, such as Landsat and Sentinel with medium and high spatial resolutions. However, the results from these multi-resolution data vary due to their difference in spatial resolution and sensitivity to soil occupation. The accuracy and quality of extracted lineaments depend strongly on the spatial resolution of the imagery. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the optical Landsat-8, Sentinel-2A, and radar Sentinel-1A satellite data for automatic lineament extraction. The framework of automatic approach includes defining the optimal parameters for automatic lineament extraction with a combination of edge detection and line-linking algorithms and determining suitable bands from optical data suited for lineament mapping in the study area. For the result validation, the extracted lineaments are compared against the manually obtained lineaments through the application of directional filtering and edge enhancement as well as to the lineaments digitized from the existing geological maps of the study area. In addition, a digital elevation model (DEM) has been utilized for an accuracy assessment followed by the field verification. The obtained results show that the best correlation between automatically extracted lineaments, manual interpretation, and the preexisting lineament map is achieved from the radar Sentinel-1A images. The tests indicate that the radar data used in this study, with 5872 and 5865 lineaments extracted from VH and VV polarizations respectively, is more efficient for structural lineament mapping than the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A optical imagery, from which 2338 and 4745 lineaments were extracted respectively.
An essential, respected, and critical aspect of the modern practice of science and scientific publishing is peer review. The process of peer review facilitates best practices in scientific conduct and communication, ensuring that manuscripts published are as accurate, valuable, and clearly communicated. The over 216 papers published in Tectonics in 2018 benefit from the time, effort, and expertise of our reviewers who have provided thoughtfully considered advice on each manuscript. This role is critical to advancing our understanding of the evolution of the continents and their margins, as these reviews lead to even clearer and higher-quality papers. In 2018, the over 443 papers submitted to Tectonics were the beneficiaries of more than 1,010 reviews provided by 668 members of the tectonics community and related disciplines. To everyone who has volunteered their time and intellect to peer reviewing, thank you for helping Tectonics and all other AGU Publications provide the best science possible.
Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.
The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is compared to newly discovered contourite drifts in the Maldives. Like the drift deposits in the Maldives, the Orfento Formation fills a channel and builds a Miocene delta-shaped and mounded sedimentary body in the basin that is similar in size to the approximately 350 km(2) large coarse-grained bioclastic Miocene delta drifts in the Maldives. The composition of the bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation is also exclusively bioclastic debris sourced from the shallow-water areas and reworked clasts of the Orfento Formation itself. In the near mud-free succession, age-diagnostic fossils are sparse. The depositional textures vary from wackestone to float-rudstone and breccia/conglomerates, but rocks with grainstone and rudstone textures are the most common facies. In the channel, lensoid convex-upward breccias, cross-cutting channelized beds and thick grainstone lobes with abundant scours indicate alternating erosion and deposition from a high-energy current. In the basin, the mounded sedimentary body contains lobes with a divergent progradational geometry. The lobes are built by decametre thick composite megabeds consisting of sigmoidal clinoforms that typically have a channelized topset, a grainy foreset and a fine-grained bottomset with abundant irregular angular clasts. Up to 30 m thick channels filled with intraformational breccias and coarse grainstones pinch out downslope between the megabeds. In the distal portion of the wedge, stacked grainstone beds with foresets and reworked intraclasts document continuous sediment reworking and migration. The bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation has been variously interpreted as a succession of sea-level controlled slope deposits, a shoaling shoreface complex, or a carbonate tidal delta. Current-controlled delta drifts in the Maldives, however, offer a new interpretation because of their similarity in architecture and composition. These similarities include: (i) a feeder channel opening into the basin; (ii) an excavation moat at the exit of the channel; (iii) an overall mounded geometry with an apex that is in shallower water depth than the source channel; (iv) progradation of stacked lobes; (v) channels that pinch out in a basinward direction; and (vi) smaller channelized intervals that are arranged in a radial pattern. As a result, the Upper Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is here interpreted as a carbonate delta drift.
Oceanic Anoxic Event-2 (OAE-2; Cenomanian-Turonian) is characterized by extensive deposition of organic carbon-rich deposits (black shales) in ocean basins worldwide as result of a major perturbation of the global carbon cycle. While the sedimentological, geochemical, and paleontological aspects of deep water expressions of OAE-2 have been intensively studied in the last few decades, much less attention has been given to the coeval shallow water deposits. In this study, we present the results of a detailed facies and petrographic (optical microscope and scanning electron microscopy) and geochemical studies (delta C-13(carb), delta C-13 (org), delta N-15(bulk), TOC, and Rock-Eval pyrolysis) on two key shallow marine sections from the Apennine Carbonate Platform (ACP; Italy). Here a continuous record of shallow water carbonates through the OAE-2 interval is preserved, offering the unique opportunity to document the archive of paleoenvironmental changes in a neritic setting, at a tropical latitude and far from the influence of a large continental block. Two conspicuous intervals are characterized by abundant and closely spaced dark microbial laminites found at correlative stratigraphic horizons in the two stratigraphic sections. These laminites contain elevated concentrations of TOC (up to 1%) relative to microbial capping cycles laminites stratigraphically above and below. The organic matter preserved in these fine-grained laminites is dominated by cyanobacteria remains, which accounted for most of the organic matter produced on the ACP in these intervals. Our study suggests that Tethyan carbonate platforms experienced significant biological changes during OAE-2, alternating, in few kiloyears, between eutrophic phases dominated by microbial communities and mesotrophic/oligotrophic conditions favoring normal carbonate production/sedimentation. The synchronous occurrence of microbialite facies at different locations across the ACP and on other platforms worldwide (e.g., Mexico and Croatia) suggests a causal link between Large Igneous Province volcanism and the environmental conditions necessary to trigger cyanobacterial proliferation on shallow carbonate platforms.
Three small stalagmites from Zoolithencave (southern Germany) show visible laminae, which consist of a clear and a brownish, pigmented layer pair. This potentially provides the opportunity to construct precise chronologies by counting annual laminae. The growth period of the three stalagmites was constrained by the C-14 bomb peak in the youngest part of all three stalagmites and C-14-dating of a piece of charcoal in the consolidated base part of stalagmite Zoo-rez-2. These data suggest an age of AD 1970 for the top laminae and a lower age limit of AD 1973-1682 or AD 1735-1778. Laminae were counted and their thickness determined on scanned thin sections of all stalagmites. On stalagmites Zoo-rez-1 and -2, three tracks were measured near the growth axes, each separated into three sections at prominent anchor laminae (I, II, III). Each section was replicated three times (a, b, c). For Zoo-rez-3, only one track was measured. The total number of laminae counted for Zoo-rez-1 ranges from 138 to 177, for Zoo-rez-2 from 119 to 145, and for Zoo-rez-3 from 159 to 166. The numbers agree well with the range constrained by the bomb peak and the age of the charcoal, which supports the annual origin of the laminae. The replicated measurements of the different tracks as well as the three different tracks on the stalagmites Zoo-rez-1 and-2 were cross-dated using the TSAP-Win (R) tree-ring software. This software is very useful for cross-dating because it enables to insert or delete missing or false laminae as well as identifying common pattern by shifting the series back and forth in time. However, visual inspection of the thin sections was necessary to confirm detection of missing or false laminae by TSAP-Win (R). For all three Zoo-rez speleothems, crossdating of the mean lamina thickness series was not possible due to a missing common pattern. The cross-dating procedure results in three refined chronologies for the three Zoo-rez stalagmites of ranging from AD 1821-1970 (Zoo-rez-1), AD 1835-1970 (Zoo-rez-2), and AD 1808-1970 (Zoo-rez-3).
Sociocultural valuation (SCV) of ecosystem services (ES) discloses the principles, importance or preferences expressed by people towards nature. Although ES research has increasingly addressed sociocultural values in past years, little effort has been made to systematically review the components of sociocultural valuation applications for different decision contexts (i.e. awareness raising, accounting, priority setting, litigation and instrument design). In this analysis, we investigate the characteristics of 48 different sociocultural valuation applications—characterised by unique combinations of decision context, methods, data collection formats and participants—across ten European case studies. Our findings show that raising awareness for the sociocultural value of ES by capturing people’s perspective and establishing the status quo, was found the most frequent decision context in case studies, followed by priority setting and instrument development. Accounting and litigation issues were not addressed in any of the applications. We reveal that applications for particular decision contexts are methodologically similar, and that decision contexts determine the choice of methods, data collection formats and participants involved. Therefore, we conclude that understanding the decision context is a critical first step to designing and carrying out fit-for-purpose sociocultural valuation of ES in operational ecosystem management.
Niche-based species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in conservation and restoration planning. Given the current threats to freshwater biodiversity, it is of fundamental importance to address scale effects on the performance of niche-based SDMs of freshwater species’ distributions. The scale effects are addressed here in the context of hierarchical catchment ordering, considered as counterpart to coarsening grain-size by increasing grid-cell size. We combine fish occurrence data from the Danube River Basin, the hierarchical catchment ordering and multiple environmental factors representing topographic, climatic and anthropogenic effects to model fish occurrence probability across multiple scales. We focus on 1st to 5th order catchments. The spatial scale (hierarchical catchment order) only marginally influences the mean performance of SDMs, however the uncertainty of the estimates increases with scale. Key predictors and their relative importance are scale and species dependent. Our findings have useful implications for choosing proper species dependent spatial scales for river rehabilitation measures, and for conservation planning in areas where fine grain species data are unavailable.
Different tectonic episodes from Late Triassic to recent times in the eastern Binalud Mountains have resulted from convergence and transpression between the Turan and Central Iran plates. Heterogeneous deformation and variable portions of pure and simple shear, demonstrated by finite strain and vorticity analysis in the Mashhad metamorphic rocks, indicate strain partitioning during the first tectonic episode. Modern strain partitioning is characterized by reverse and strike-slip faulting along the Neyshabur fault system and Shandiz fault zone in the southern and northern flanks of the eastern Binalud, respectively. Time-transgressive regional deformation migrated from the hinterland of the belt into the foreland basin, from northeast to the southwest of the mountains. Different generations of deformation resulted in obliteration of the subduction-related accretionary wedge, and growth of an orogenic wedge resulted from collision between the Central Iran and Turan plates.
Due to increasing demands for irrigation using groundwater as a source there is an urgent need for efficient methods that shed light on the resulting anthropogenic impacts on the connected aquifers. Thus an innovative approach is introduced, that aims to identify predominant geochemical changes in the groundwater system. The approach involves a principal component analysis as a promising tool to disentangle the effects of different impacts and even to give a quantitative assessment of the respective effect strength at each site. The study was applied in an irrigation region of the Nuthe River Basin, State Brandenburg, Northeast Germany. The results identify the negative impacts on the groundwater quality in the aquifer used for irrigation. A decrease of shallow groundwater quality under irrigation due to contamination with fertilizers (NO3, Cl, K, Na) and a slight shift in the redox system is indicated. Beside this direct impact on the shallow groundwater a long-term impact on a deeper groundwater resource could be identified. There is clear evidence, that the contamination is not restricted to the shallow groundwater but that extraction from deeper wells increasingly includes deeper, uncontaminated groundwater resources into the local irrigation cycle. The approach can be used as a basic tool for the adaptation of sustainable agricultural irrigation management strategies.
As a consequence of the rapid growing worldwide seismic data set, a huge variety of automatized data-processing methods have been developed. To perform automatized waveform-based seismological studies aiming for magnitudes or source process inversion, it is crucial to identify network stations with erroneous transfer functions, gain factors, or component orientations. We developed a new tool dedicated to automated station quality control of dense seismic networks and arrays. The python-based AutoStatsQ toolbox uses the pyrocko seismic data-processing environment. The toolbox automatically downloads data and metadata for selected teleseismic events and performs different tests. As a result, relative gain factors, sensor orientation corrections, and reliable frequency bands are computed for all stations in a chosen time period. Relative gain factors are calculated for all stations and events in a time domain based on maximum P-phase amplitudes. A Rayleigh-wave polarization analysis is used to identify deviating sensor orientations. The power spectra of all stations in a given frequency range are compared with synthetic ones, accessing Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions. Frequency ranges of coinciding synthetic and recorded power spectral densities (PSDs) may serve as guidelines for choosing band-pass filters for moment tensor (MT) inversion and help confirm the corner frequency of the instrument. The toolbox was applied to the permanent and temporary AlpArray networks as well as to the denser SWATH-D network, a total of over 750 stations. Stations with significantly deviating gain factors were identified, as well as stations with inverse polarity and misorientations of the horizontal components. The tool can be used to quickly access network quality and to omit or correct stations before MT inversion. Electronic Supplement: List of teleseismic events and tables of median, mean, and standard deviation of relative gain factors, and figures of relative gain factors of all event-station pairs, waveform example showing inverse polarity of horizontal components on ZS.D125, histograms of median, mean, and standard deviation of the correction angles, examples of synthetic and recorded frequency spectra of ZS.D046 and NI.VINO.
Small-scale variations in mineral chemistry, textures, and platinum group element (PGE) mineralization were investigated in the Lower and Middle Group chromitite layers LG6, LG6a, MG1, MG2, and MG2 II from vertical drill core profiles at the Thaba mine in the northwestern limb of the Bushveld Complex. We present detailed geochemical profiles of chromite composition and chromite crystal size distribution curves to shed light on the processes of chromite accumulation and textural modification as well as mineralization. Multiple samples within each layer were assayed for PGE concentrations, and the respective platinum group mineral association was determined by mineral liberation analysis (MLA). There is strong evidence for postcumulus changes in the chromitites. The crystal size distribution curves suggest that the primary chromite texture was coarsened by a combination of adcumulus growth and textural equilibration, while compaction of the crystal mush played only a minor role. Mineral compositions were also modified by postcumulus processes, but because of the very high modal amount of chromite and its local preservation in orthopyroxene oikocrysts, that phase retained much primary information. Vertical variations of chromite composition within chromitite layers and from one layer to another do not support the idea of chromite accumulation from crystal-rich slurries or crystal settling from a large magma chamber. Instead, we favor a successive buildup of chromitite layers by repeated injections of relatively thin layers of chromite-saturated magmas, with in situ crystallization occurring at the crystal mush-magma interface. The adcumulus growth of chromite grains to form massive chromitite required addition of Cr to the layers, which we attribute to downward percolation from the overlying magma. The PGE concentrations are elevated in all chromitite layers compared to adjacent silicate rocks and show a systematic increase upward from LG6 (avg 807 ppb Ir + Ru + Rh + Pt + Pd + Au) to MG2 II (avg 2,062 ppb). There are also significant internal variations in all layers, with enrichments at hanging and/or footwalls. The enriched nature of chromitites in PGEs compared to host pyroxenites is a general feature, independent of the layer thickness. The MLA results distinguish two principal groups of PGE mineral associations: the LG6, LG6, and MG1 are dominated by the malanite series, laurite, and PGE sulfarsenides, while the MG2 and MG2 II layers are characterized by laurite and PGE sulfides as well as Pt-Fe-Sn and PGE-Sb-Bi-Pb alloys. Differences in the PGE associations are attributed to postcumulus alteration of the MG2 and MG2 II layer, while the chromitites below, particularly LG6 and LG6a, contain a more pristine association.
Arboreal epiphytes (plants residing in forest canopies) are present across all major climate zones and play important roles in forest biogeochemistry. The substantial water storage capacity per unit area of the epiphyte "bucket" is a key attribute underlying their capability to influence forest hydrological processes and their related mass and energy flows. It is commonly assumed that the epiphyte bucket remains saturated, or near-saturated, most of the time; thus, epiphytes (particularly vascular epiphytes) can store little precipitation, limiting their impact on the forest canopy water budget. We present evidence that contradicts this common assumption from (i) an examination of past research; (ii) new datasets on vascular epiphyte and epi-soil water relations at a tropical montane cloud forest (Monteverde, Costa Rica); and (iii) a global evaluation of non-vascular epiphyte saturation state using a process-based vegetation model, LiBry. All analyses found that the external and internal water storage capacity of epiphyte communities is highly dynamic and frequently available to intercept precipitation. Globally, non-vascular epiphytes spend <20% of their time near saturation and regionally, including the humid tropics, model results found that non-vascular epiphytes spend similar to 1/3 of their time in the dry state (0-10% of water storage capacity). Even data from Costa Rican cloud forest sites found the epiphyte community was saturated only 1/3 of the time and that internal leaf water storage was temporally dynamic enough to aid in precipitation interception. Analysis of the epi-soils associated with epiphytes further revealed the extent to which the epiphyte bucket emptied-as even the canopy soils were often <50% saturated (29-53% of all days observed). Results clearly show that the epiphyte bucket is more dynamic than currently assumed, meriting further research on epiphyte roles in precipitation interception, redistribution to the surface and chemical composition of "net" precipitation waters reaching the surface.
Power-to-gas (PtG) stores chemical energy by converting excess electrical energy from renewable sources into an energy-dense gas. Due to its higher available capacity compared to surface-based storage technologies, subsurface storage in geological systems is the most promising approach for efficient and economic realization of the PtG system’s storage component. For this purpose, methane (CH4) produced by methanation by means of hydrogen (H2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) is stored in a geological reservoir until required for further use. In this context, CO2 is used as the cushion gas to maintain reservoir pressure and limiting working gas, i.e., (CH4) losses during withdrawal periods. Consequently, mixing of both gases in the reservoir is inevitable. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize the gas mixing region to optimize the efficiency of the PtG system’s storage component. In the present study, the physical properties of CH4, CO2 and their mixtures are reviewed. Then, a multicomponent flow model is implemented and validated against published data. Next, a hydromechanically coupled model is established, considering fluid flow through porous media and effective stresses to investigate the mixing behavior of both gases and the mechanical reservoir stability. The simulation results show that, with increasing reservoir thickness and dip angle, the mixing region is reduced during gas injection if CO2 is employed as the cushion gas. In addition, the degree of mixing is lower at higher temperatures. Feasible injection rates and injection schedules can be derived from the integrated reservoir stability analysis. The methodology developed in the present study allows the determination of optimum strategies for storage reservoir selection and gas injection scheduling by minimizing the gas mixing region.
The Olorgesailie Drilling Project and the related Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project in East Africa were initiated to test hypotheses and models linking environmental change to hominin evolution by drilling lake basin sediments adjacent to important archeological and paleoanthropological sites. Drill core OL012-1A recovered 139 m of sedimentary and volcaniclastic strata from the Koora paleolake basin, southern Kenya Rift, providing the opportunity to compare paleoenvironmental influences over the past million years with the parallel record exposed at the nearby Olorgesailie archeological site. To refine our ability to link core-to-outcrop paleoenvironmental records, we institute here a methodological framework for deriving a robust age model for the complex lithostratigraphy of OL012-1A. Firstly, chronostratigraphic control points for the core were established based on 4 Ar/39Ar ages from intercalated tephra deposits and a basal trachyte flow, as well as the stratigraphic position of the Brunhes-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal. This dataset was combined with the position and duration of paleosols, and analyzed using a new Bayesian algorithm for high-resolution age-depth modeling of hiatus-bearing stratigraphic sections. This model addresses three important aspects relevant to highly dynamic, nonlinear depositional environments: 1) correcting for variable rates of deposition, 2) accommodating hiatuses, and 3) quantifying realistic age uncertainty with centimetric resolution. Our method is applicable to typical depositional systems in extensional rifts as well as to drill cores from other dynamic terrestrial or aquatic environments. We use the core age model and lithostratigraphy to examine the inter connectivity of the Koora Basin to adjacent areas and sources of volcanism. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
In Germany, the irrigation sector accounts for only 1% of water use. In recent years, however, this sector has attracted more attention due to the occurrence of severe drought periods. Irrigation scheduling systems could support adaptation strategies but little is known about current providers, performance and users. In this study we aimed to depict the current situation of the existence and functioning of irrigation scheduling systems available in Germany. Six methods were identified and assessed based on direct interviews with end-users and a comparative analysis. The results showed a positive feedback from the users. However, the recommendations were rarely implemented, while only the seasonal irrigation requirement was considered to support actual water abstraction. These results were corroborated by the comparative analysis. Five of the six irrigation scheduling systems estimated the seasonal irrigation amount consistently, while wider differences were found by looking at the irrigation season and at the number of irrigations. Overall, it is found that irrigation support systems are valuable tools for supporting adaptation strategies to fast changes in agro-environmental conditions. However, specific assessments based on real measurements should be considered in order to improve the performance of the systems and provide more consistent support to end-users. (c) 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Ancient evaporite deposits are geological archives of depositional environments characterized by a long‐term negative precipitation balance and bear evidence for global ocean element mass balance calculations. Here, Cretaceous selenite pseudomorphs from western Anatolia (‘Rosetta Marble’) — characterized by their exceptional morphological preservation — and their ‘marine’ geochemical signatures are described and interpreted in a process‐oriented context. These rocks recorded Late Cretaceous high‐pressure/low‐temperature, subduction‐related metamorphism with peak conditions of 1·0 to 1·2 GPa and 300 to 400°C. Metre‐scale, rock‐forming radiating rods, now present as fibrous calcite marble, clearly point to selenitic gypsum as the precursor mineral. Stratigraphic successions are recorded along a reconstructed proximal to distal transect. The cyclical alternation of selenite beds and radiolarian ribbon‐bedded cherts in the distal portions are interpreted as a two type of seawater system. During arid intervals, shallow marine brines cascaded downward into basinal settings and induced precipitation. During more humid times, upwelling‐induced radiolarian blooms caused the deposition of radiolarite facies. Interestingly, there is no comparable depositional setting known from the Cenozoic world. Meta‐selenite geochemical data (δ13C, δ18O and 87Sr/86Sr) plot within the range of reconstructed middle Cretaceous seawater signatures. Possible sources for the 13C‐enriched (mean 2·2‰) values include methanogenesis, gas hydrates and cold seep fluid exhalation. Spatially resolved component‐specific analysis of a rock slab displays isotopic variances between meta‐selenite crystals (mean δ13C 2·2‰) and host matrix (mean δ13C 1·3‰). The Cretaceous evaporite‐pseudomorphs of Anatolia represent a basin wide event coeval with the Aptian evaporites of the Proto‐Atlantic and the pseudomorphs share many attributes, including lateral distribution of 600 km and stratigraphic thickness of 1·5 to 2·0 km, with the evaporites formed during the younger Messinian salinity crisis. The Rosetta Marble of Anatolia may represent the best‐preserved selenite pseudomorphs worldwide and have a clear potential to act as a template for the study of meta‐selenite in deep time.
Millennial-scale Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) variability at northern high latitudes has influenced climatic and environmental conditions in the Mediterranean during the last glacial period. There is evidence that the hemispheric transmission of the DO variability occurred at the end of DO event 25; however, the exact timing and the trigger that activated the environmental response in the Mediterranean remains incompletely understood. Here, we provide evidence that the clear millennial-scale teleconnection between Greenland and the Mediterranean started at similar to 111.4 ka BP and was initiated by a sub-millennial scale cooling in Greenland (GI-25b). High-resolution sediment proxies and the pollen record of Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON), Italy, reflect climatic instability during the last millennium of the last interglacial, which was characterised by a first and short cooling episode (MON 1) at 111.44 +/- 0.69 ka BP, coinciding with the Greenland cold sub-event GI-25b in duration and timing (within dating uncertainties). MON and Greenland (NorthGRIP ice core) also agree in recording a subsequent warm rebound phase that abruptly culminated in the stadial MON 2/GS-25, marking the transition into the last glacial period. Our results show that the GI-25b triggered an early environmental response at MON to centennial-scale climate change in Greenland as a prelude to the millennial-scale teleconnection that was maintained during the glacial period.
Flood risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for flood insurance in the Veneto region of Italy
(2019)
The floodplain of the Veneto region (north-east Italy) is one of the most inhabited and economically competitive urban landscapes in Europe. Moreover, recent flood events have caused millions of Euros in damage across the region. Due to the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development, flood impacts are expected to grow. Therefore, it is important for all flood-prone individuals to actively manage and limit flood risk through property-level flood risk management as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy. This is in line with the calls for wider community engagement in risk management in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, an online-survey of Veneto region residents was conducted asking questions regarding flood risk perceptions, preparedness, and preferences towards flood insurance via self-stated willingness to pay (WTP). Our analysis provides an initial indication that while flood risk knowledge is high, it may not be sufficient to encourage proactive risk management. From the WTP values provided people seem reluctant to buy insurance. However, many respondents expressed that a compulsory insurance system may be acceptable. In such a scheme the estimated insurance premium could fall to between (sic)26 and (sic)42 per year, as compared to, potentially, (sic)800 under risk-based premiums, which falls within the majority of WTP estimates provided ((sic)0-(sic)250). Overall, we identify areas of future research that are critical for the better design of risk management policies, supporting the insurance companies in risk management and for recommendations regarding property-level risk management.
The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting‐up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high.
We present a new algorithm for solving the common problem of flow trapped in closed depressions within digital elevation models, as encountered in many applications relying on flow routing. Unlike other approaches (e.g., the Priority-Flood depression filling algorithm), this solution is based on the explicit computation of the flow paths both within and across the depressions through the construction of a graph connecting together all adjacent drainage basins. Although this represents many operations, a linear time complexity can be reached for the whole computation, making it very efficient. Compared to the most optimized solutions proposed so far, we show that this algorithm of flow path enforcement yields the best performance when used in landscape evolution models. In addition to its efficiency, our proposed method also has the advantage of letting the user choose among different strategies of flow path enforcement within the depressions (i.e., filling vs. carving). Furthermore, the computed graph of basins is a generic structure that has the potential to be reused for solving other problems as well, such as the simulation of erosion. This sequential algorithm may be helpful for those who need to, e.g., process digital elevation models of moderate size on single computers or run batches of simulations as part of an inference study.
Isolated extreme habitats are ideally suited to investigate pivotal ecological processes such as niche use, local adaptation and dispersal. Extremophilic animals living in isolated habitats face the problem that dispersal is limited through the absence of suitable dispersal corridors, which in turn facilitates local adaptation. We used five rotifer isolates from extremely acidic mining lakes with a pH of below 3 as model organisms to test whether these isolates are acidotolerant or acidophilic, whether they survive and reproduce at their niche edges (here pH 2 and circum-neutral pH) and whether local adaptation has evolved. To evaluate potential dispersal limitation, we tested whether animals and their parthenogenetic eggs survive and remain reproductive or viable at unfavourable pH-conditions. All five isolates were acidophilic with a pH-optimum in the range of 4-6, which is well above the pH (< 3) of their lakes of origin. At unfavourable high pH, in four out of the five isolates parthenogenetic females produced a high number of non-viable eggs. Females and eggs produced at favourable pH (4) remained vital at an otherwise unfavourable pH of 7, indicating that for dispersal no acidic dispersal corridors are necessary. Common garden experiments revealed no clear evidence for local adaptation in any of the five isolates. Despite their acidophilic nature, all five isolates can potentially disperse via circum-neutral water bodies as long as their residence time is short, suggesting a broader dispersal niche than their realized niche. Local adaptation might have been hampered by the low population sizes of the rotifers in their isolated habitat and the short time span the mining lakes have existed.
In this study, a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle was used to obtain multi-spectral high-resolution imagery (1.4 cmpx(-1)) from2 microcatchments (3.3 ha) with burned Mediterranean shrubland and pine forests. This imagery was used to calculate the blue normalized differential vegetation index and to generate digital elevation models for estimating the sediment connectivity index. Both indices enabled an integrated approach for deciphering how hydrological and sediment connectivity interact with vegetation as well as soil conservation structures. The application of spatial analysis improves our understanding of the feedback between biological and geomorphological processes. Local spatial data analysis established a significant link between local geomorphological and biological factors, enabling a precise identification of homogeneous areas at micro-catchment scale and the minimal size of vegetation units reacting to geomorphology as natural groups at plot-scale where management strategies and efforts should be applied. Establishing this local relationship between sediment connectivity and vegetation patterns through new and interdisciplinary methodologies represents a new strategy for the assessment of ecosystem dynamics and management.
Empirical evidence of the relationship between social support and post-disaster mental health provides support for a general beneficial effect of social support (main-effect model; Wheaton, 1985). From a theoretical perspective, a buffering effect of social support on the negative relationship between disaster-related stress and mental health also seems plausible (stress-buffering model; Wheaton, 1985). Previous studies, however, (a) have paid less attention to the buffering effect of social support and (b) have mainly relied on interpersonal support (but not collective-level support such as community resilience) when investigating this issue. This previous work might have underestimated the effect of support on post-disaster mental health. Building on a sample of residents in Germany recently affected by flooding (N = 118), we show that community resilience to flooding (but not general interpersonal social support) buffered against the negative effects of flooding on post-disaster mental health. The results support the stress-buffering model and call for a more detailed look at the relationship between support and resilience and post-disaster adjustment, including collective-level variables.
The marine sedimentary record contains unique information about the history of erosion, uplift and climate of the adjacent continent. Inverting this record has been the purpose of many numerical studies. However, limited attention has been given to linking continental erosion to marine sediment transport and deposition in large-scale surface process evolution models. Here we present a new numerical method for marine sediment transport and deposition that is directly coupled to a landscape evolution algorithm solving for the continental fluvial and hillslope erosion equations using implicit and O(N) algorithms. The new method takes into account the sorting of grain sizes (e.g., silt and sand) in the marine domain using a non-linear multiple grain-size diffusion equation and assumes that the sediment flux exported from the continental domain is proportional to the bathymetric slope. Specific transport coefficients and compaction factors are assumed for the two different grain sizes to simulate the stratigraphic architecture. The resulting set of equations is solved using an efficient (O(N) and implicit) algorithm. It can thus be used to invert stratigraphic geometries using a Bayesian approach that requires a large number of simulations. This new method is used to invert the sedimentary geometry of a natural example, the Ogooue Delta (Gabon), over the last similar to 5 Myr. The objective is to unravel the set of erosional histories of the adjacent continental domain compatible with the observed geometry of the offshore delta. For this, we use a Bayesian inversion scheme in which the misfit function is constructed by comparing four geometrical parameters between the natural and the simulated delta: the volume of sediments stored in the delta, the surface slope, the initial and the final shelf lengths. We find that the best-fit values of the transport coefficients for silt in the marine domain are in the range of 300 - 500 m(2)/yr, in agreement with previous studies on offshore diffusion. We also show that, in order to fit the sedimentary geometry, erosion rate on the continental domain must have increased by a factor of 6 to 8 since 5.3 Ma. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation.
Changes in the steepness of river profiles or abrupt vertical steps (i.e. waterfalls) are thought to be indicative of changes in erosion rates, lithology or other factors that affect landscape evolution. These changes are referred to as knickpoints or knickzones and are pervasive in bedrock river systems. Such features are thought to reveal information about landscape evolution and patterns of erosion, and therefore their locations are often reported in the geomorphic literature. It is imperative that studies reporting knickpoints and knickzones use a reproducible method of quantifying their locations, as their number and spatial distribution play an important role in interpreting tectonically active landscapes. In this contribution we introduce a reproducible knickpoint and knickzone extraction algorithm that uses river profiles transformed by integrating drainage area along channel length (the so-called integral or chi method). The profile is then statistically segmented and the differing slopes and step changes in the elevations of these segments are used to identify knickpoints, knickzones and their relative magnitudes. The output locations of identified knickpoints and knickzones compare favourably with human mapping: we test the method on Santa Cruz Island, CA, using previously reported knickzones and also test the method against a new dataset from the Quadrilatero Ferrifero in Brazil. The algorithm allows for the extraction of varying knickpoint morphologies, including stepped, positive slope-break (concave upward) and negative slope-break knickpoints. We identify parameters that most affect the resulting knickpoint and knickzone locations and provide guidance for both usage and outputs of the method to produce reproducible knickpoint datasets.
Terrestrial gravimetry is increasingly used to monitor mass transport processes in geophysics boosted by the ongoing technological development of instruments. Resolving a particular phenomenon of interest, however, requires a set of gravity corrections of which the uncertainties have not been addressed up to now. In this study, we quantify the time domain uncertainty of tide, global atmospheric, large-scale hydrological, and nontidal ocean loading corrections. The uncertainty is assessed by comparing the majority of available global models for a suite of sites worldwide. The average uncertainty expressed as root-mean-square error equals 5.1nm/s(2), discounting local hydrology or air pressure. The correction-induced uncertainty of gravity changes over various time periods of interest ranges from 0.6nm/s(2) for hours up to a maximum of 6.7nm/s(2) for 6months. The corrections are shown to be significant and should be applied for most geophysical applications of terrestrial gravimetry. From a statistical point of view, however, resolving subtle gravity effects in the order of few nanometers per square second is challenged by the uncertainty of the corrections. Plain Language Summary Many scientists are exploring ways to benefit from gravity measurements in fields of high societal relevance such as monitoring of volcanoes or measuring the amount of water in underground. Any application of such new methods, however, requires careful preparation of the gravity measurements. The intention of the preparation process is to ensure that the measurements do not contain information about processes that are not of interest. For that reason, the influence of atmosphere, ocean, tides, and hydrology needs to be reduced from the gravity. In this study, we investigate how this reduction process influences the quality of the measurement. We found that the precision degrades especially owing to the hydrology. The ocean plays an important role at sites close to the coast and the atmosphere at sites located in mountains. The overall errors of the reductions may complicate a reliable use of gravity measurements in certain studies focusing on very small signals. Nevertheless, the precision of gravity reductions alone does not obstruct a meaningful use of gravity measurements in most research fields. Details specifying the reduction precision are provided in this study allowing scientist dealing with gravity measurements to decide if their signal of interest can be reliably resolved.
A comprehensive description of electromagnetic processes related to equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs) is essential for understanding their evolution and day-to-day variability. Recently, field-aligned currents (FACs) flowing at both western and eastern edges of EPDs were observed to be interhemispheric rather than anti-parallel about the dip equator, as suggested by previous theoretical studies. In this paper, we investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the FACs orientation using simultaneous measurements of electron density and magnetic field gathered by ESA’s Swarm constellation mission. By using empirical models, we assess the role of the Pedersen conductance in the preference of the FACs to close either in the northern or southern magnetic hemisphere. Here we show that the closure of the FACs agrees with an electrostatic regime determined by a hemispherical asymmetry of the Pedersen conductance. That is, the EPD-related FACs close at lower altitudes in the hemisphere with the highest conductivity. The evidence of this conclusion stands on the general agreement between the longitudinal and seasonal variability of both the conductivity and the FACs orientation.
Breakup Without Borders
(2019)
Relative plate motions during continental rifting result from the interplay of local with far-field forces. Here we study the dynamics of rifting and breakup using large-scale numerical simulations of mantle convection with self-consistent evolution of plate boundaries. We show that continental separation follows a characteristic evolution with four distinctive phases: (1) an initial slow rifting phase with low divergence velocities and maximum tensional stresses, (2) a synrift speed-up phase featuring an abrupt increase of extension rate with a simultaneous drop of tensional stress, (3) the breakup phase with inception of fast sea-floor spreading, and (4) a deceleration phase occurring in most but not all models where extensional velocities decrease. We find that the speed-up during rifting is compensated by subduction acceleration or subduction initiation even in distant localities. Our study illustrates new links between local rift dynamics, plate motions, and subduction kinematics during times of continental separation.