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High-latitude treeless ecosystems represent spatially highly heterogeneous landscapes with small net carbon fluxes and a short growing season. Reliable observations and process understanding are critical for projections of the carbon balance of the climate-sensitive tundra. Space-borne remote sensing is the only tool to obtain spatially continuous and temporally resolved information on vegetation greenness and activity in remote circumpolar areas. However, confounding effects from persistent clouds, low sun elevation angles, numerous lakes, widespread surface inundation, and the sparseness of the vegetation render it highly challenging. Here, we conduct an extensive analysis of the timing of peak vegetation productivity as shown by satellite observations of complementary indicators of plant greenness and photosynthesis. We choose to focus on productivity during the peak of the growing season, as it importantly affects the total annual carbon uptake. The suite of indicators are as follows: (1) MODIS-based vegetation indices (VIs) as proxies for the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that is absorbed (fPAR), (2) VIs combined with estimates of PAR as a proxy of the total absorbed radiation (APAR), (3) sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serving as a proxy for photosynthesis, (4) vegetation optical depth (VOD), indicative of total water content and (5) empirically upscaled modelled gross primary productivity (GPP). Averaged over the pan-Arctic we find a clear order of the annual peak as APAR <= GPP < SIF < VIs/VOD. SIF as an indicator of photosynthesis is maximised around the time of highest annual temperatures. The modelled GPP peaks at a similar time to APAR. The time lag of the annual peak between APAR and instantaneous SIF fluxes indicates that the SIF data do contain information on light-use efficiency of tundra vegetation, but further detailed studies are necessary to verify this. Delayed peak greenness compared to peak photosynthesis is consistently found across years and land-cover classes. A particularly late peak of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in regions with very small seasonality in greenness and a high amount of lakes probably originates from artefacts. Given the very short growing season in circumpolar areas, the average time difference in maximum annual photosynthetic activity and greenness or growth of 3 to 25 days (depending on the data sets chosen) is important and needs to be considered when using satellite observations as drivers in vegetation models.
The Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquake magnitudes is the most famous empirical law in seismology. It states that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes follows an exponential distribution; this has been found to be a robust feature of seismicity above the completeness magnitude, and it is independent of whether global, regional, or local seismicity is analyzed. However, the exponent b of the distribution varies significantly in space and time, which is important for process understanding and seismic hazard assessment; this is particularly true because of the fact that the Gutenberg-Richter b-value acts as a proxy for the stress state and quantifies the ratio of large-to-small earthquakes. In our work, we focus on the automatic detection of statistically significant temporal changes of the b-value in seismicity data. In our approach, we use Bayes factors for model selection and estimate multiple change-points of the frequency-magnitude distribution in time. The method is first applied to synthetic data, showing its capability to detect change-points as function of the size of the sample and the b-value contrast. Finally, we apply this approach to examples of observational data sets for which b-value changes have previously been stated. Our analysis of foreshock and after-shock sequences related to mainshocks, as well as earthquake swarms, shows that only a portion of the b-value changes is statistically significant.
Tundra be dammed
(2018)
Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293km(2)) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.
Many regions central to our understanding of tectonics and landscape evolution are active or ancient magmatic terranes, and robust interpretation of low-temperature thermochronologic ages in these settings requires careful attention to the drivers of rock heating and cooling, including magmatism. However, we currently lack a quantitative framework for evaluating the potential role of magmatic coolingthat is, post-magmatic thermal relaxationin shaping cooling age patterns in regions with a history of intrusive magmatism. Here we use analytical approximations and numerical models to characterize how low-temperature thermochronometers document cooling inside and around plutons in steadily exhuming environments. Our models predict that the thermal field a pluton intrudes into, specifically the ambient temperatures relative to the closure temperature of a given thermochronometer, is as important as the pluton size and temperature in controlling the pattern and extent of thermochronometer resetting in the country rocks around a pluton. We identify one advective and several conductive timescales that govern the relationship between the crystallization and cooling ages inside a pluton. In synthetic vertical age-elevation relationships (AERs), resetting next to plutons results in changes in AER slope that could be misinterpreted as past changes in exhumation rate if the history of magmatism is not accounted for. Finally, we find that large midcrustal plutons, such as those emplaced at similar to 10-15-km depth, can reset the low-temperature thermochronometers far above them in the upper crusta result with considerable consequences for thermochronology in arcs and regions with a history of magmatic activity that may not have a surface expression.
The variation of Rayleigh ellipticity versus frequency is gaining popularity in site characterization. It becomes a necessary observable to complement dispersion curves when inverting shear wave velocity profiles. Various methods have been proposed so far to extract polarization from ambient vibrations recorded on a single three-component station or with an array of three-component sensors. If only absolute values were recovered 10 yr ago, new array-based techniques were recently proposed with enhanced efficiencies providing also the ellipticity sign. With array processing, higher-order modes are often detected even in the ellipticity domain. We suggest to explore the properties of a high-resolution beamforming where radial and vertical components are explicitly included. If N is the number of three-component sensors, 2N x 2N cross-spectral density matrices are calculated for all presumed directions of propagation. They are built with N radial and N vertical channels. As a first approach, steering vectors are designed to fit with Rayleigh wave properties: the phase shift between radial and vertical components is either -Pi/2 or Pi/2. We show that neglecting the ellipticity tilt due to attenuation has only minor effects on the results. Additionally, we prove analytically that it is possible to retrieve the ellipticity value from the usual maximization of the high-resolution beam power. The method is tested on synthetic data sets and on experimental data. Both are reference sites already analysed by several authors. A detailed comparison with previous results on these cases is provided.
Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (>2-10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35-40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.
Woodlands and steppes
(2018)
Based on fossil organism remains including plant macrofossils, charcoal, pollen, and invertebrates preserved in syngenetic deposits of the Batagay permafrost sequence in the Siberian Yana Highlands, we reconstructed the environmental history during marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 to 2. Two fossil assemblages, exceptionally rich in plant remains, allowed for a detailed description of the palaeo-vegetation during two climate extremes of the Late Pleistocene, the onset of the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial. In addition, altogether 41 assemblages were used to outline the vegetation history since the penultimate cold stage of MIS 6. Accordingly, meadow steppes analogue to modern communities of the phytosociological order Festucetalia lenensis formed the primary vegetation during the Saalian and Weichselian cold stages. Cold-resistant tundra-steppe communities (Carici rupestris-Kobresietea bellardii) as they occur above the treeline today were, in contrast to more northern locations, mostly lacking. During the last interglacial, open coniferous woodland similar to modern larch taiga was the primary vegetation at the site. Abundant charcoal indicates wildfire events during the last interglacial. Zoogenic disturbances of the local vegetation were indicated by the presence of ruderal plants, especially by abundant Urtica dioica, suggesting that the area was an interglacial refugium for large herbivores. Meadow steppes, which formed the primary vegetation during cold stages and provided potentially suitable pastures for herbivores, were a significant constituent of the plant cover in the Yana Highlands also under the full warm stage conditions of the last interglacial. Consequently, meadow steppes occurred in the Yana Highlands during the entire investigated timespan from MIS 6 to MIS 2 documenting a remarkable environmental stability. Thus, the proportion of meadow steppe vegetation merely shifted in response to the respectively prevailing climatic conditions. Their persistence indicates low precipitation and a relatively warm growing season throughout and beyond the late Pleistocene. The studied fossil record also proves that modern steppe occurrences in the Yana Highlands did not establish as late as in the Holocene but instead are relicts of a formerly continuous steppe belt extending from Central Siberia to Northeast Yakutia during the Pleistocene. The persistence of plants and invertebrates characteristic of meadow steppe vegetation in interior Yakutia throughout the late Quaternary indicates climatic continuity and documents the suitability of this region as a refugium also for other organisms of the Pleistocene mammoth steppe including the iconic large herbivores. (C)2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Both enstatite spectra are very bright in the VIS and NIR and show almost neutral to slightly bluish spectral slopes with a steep absorption in the UV. Very low iron in the enstatites (below similar to 0.04 wt% FeO) already results in weak albeit noticeable absorptions in the VNIR between 0.4 and 0.9 mu m. Orthoenstatite and clinoenstatite are not distinguishable based only on their spectra in the VIS and NIR. At the Reststrahlen bands in the MIR a systematic difference in the number and exact position of local minima at similar to 10 mu m between clinoenstatite and orthoenstatite is evident. This can be used to discern between the polymorphs in this wavelength range. Additionally, we can distinguish between Fe-free low- and high-Ca pyroxenes in the MIR.
We present the first high-resolution trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca) record from a stalagmite in southwestern Romania covering the last 3.6 ka, which provides the potential for quantitative climate reconstruction. Precise age control is based on three independent dating methods, in particular for the last 250 yr, where chemical lamina counting is combined with the identification of the 20th century radiocarbon bomb peak and Th-230/U dating. Long-term cave monitoring and model simulations of drip water and speleothem elemental variability indicate that precipitation-related processes are the main drivers of speleothem Mg/Ca ratios. Calibration against instrumental climate data shows a significant anti-correlation of speleothem Mg/Ca ratios with autumn/winter (October to March) precipitation (r = -0.61, p < 0.01), which is statistically robust when considering age uncertainties and auto-correlation. This relationship is used to develop a quantitative reconstruction of autumn/winter precipitation. During the late Holocene, our data suggest a heterogeneous pattern of past regional winter hydroclimate in the Carpathian/Balkan realm, along with intermittent weakening of the dominant influence of North Atlantic forcing. In agreement with other regional paleo-hydrological reconstructions, the observed variability reveals periodically occurring strong NW-SE hydro-climate gradients. We hypothesize, that this pattern is caused by shifts of the eastern edge of the area of influence of the NAO across central eastern Europe due to the confluence of North Atlantic forcing, and other climatic features such as the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) pattern. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of nu(S30) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02-3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.
One paragraph of the manuscript of the paper has been inadvertently omitted in the very final stage of its compilation due to a technical mistake. Since this paragraph discusses the declustering of the used earthquake catalogue and is therefore necessary for the understanding of the seismicity data preprocessing, the authors decided to provide this paragraph in form of a correction. The respective paragraph belongs to chapter 2 of the paper, where it was placed originally, and should be inserted into the published paper before the second to the last paragraph. The omitted text reads as follows:
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.
The Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta in NW Colombia is an isolated massif at the northernmost end of the Andes chain near the boundary with the Caribbean plate. Previous geologic mapping and K-Ar dating have shown that Jurassic plutonic and volcanic units make up a large part of the Santa Marta Massif (SMM). These rocks have been considered to be part of a Jurassic magmatic arc extending from NW Colombia to northern Chile, but without any geochemical basis for comparison. This paper reports on a geochemical and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope study of the Jurassic rocks in the SMM and provides 12 new U-Pb zircon ages from in-situ laser ICP-MS dating. The plutonic and volcanic units span a range from 45 to 78 wt.% SiO2, with a dominance of intermediate to felsic compositions with SiO2 > 57 wt.%. They classify as calc-alkaline, medium to high-K, metaluminous rocks with trace-element features typical for arc-derived magma series. In terms of their major and trace-element compositions, the SMM Jurassic units overlap with contemporary plutonic and volcanic rocks from other regions of the Central and Eastern Cordilleras of Colombia, and confirm an arc affinity. The new U-Pb ages range from 176 +/- 1 Ma to 192 +/- 2 Ma (n = 12), with most between 180 and 188 Ma (n = 7). The initial Sr isotope ratios (at 180 Ma) are between 0.7012 and 0.7071 (n = 29), with 3 outliers attributed to mobilization of Rb and/or Sr, Nearly all samples have negative( )epsilon Nd-(180) values between - 10.3 and 0.0 (n = 30), the two exceptions being only slightly positive (1.1 and 1.9). Measured Pb isotope ratios fall in a narrow range, with Pb-206/Pb-204 from 18.02 to 19.95, (207) Pb/(204) Pb from 15.56 to 15.67 and Pb-208/Pb-204 from 37.76 to 39.04 (n = 28). In the regional context of previous studies, these results confirm early Jurassic ages and an arc affinity for the widespread magmatism exposed in the eastern and northeastern Colombian Andes. We also note patterns in the distribution and composition of magmas. The magmatic activity in the Central Cordillera tends to be younger than in the Eastern Cordillera and is spatially more restricted to the vicinity of regional fault systems. In terms of composition, Jurassic igneous rocks in the Eastern Cordillera have systematically lower epsilon Nd-(180) values than those from the Central Cordillera, whereas the Pb isotope ratios overlap. We ascribe the Nd isotope variations to heterogeneity in the mantle source and/or degree of crustal contamination, whereas the Pb isotope ratios are crust-dominated and similar throughout the region. The spatio-temporal and compositional evolution of Jurassic magmatic rocks in the Northern Andes reflect the major plate kinematic readjustment between the Triassic and the Early Jurassic in the proto-Andean margin.
The article provides a contribution to the glacial geomorphology of tropical high-altitude mountains. It focuses on the diversity of glacial landforms in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru). The landforms are classified as individual landform types as well as in their hypsometric sequence. Their spatial arrangement is depicted in vertical series and summarised in a glacial-morphological altitudinal belt model. The glacial landforms are analysed in a genetic succession from the moraine-delimited glacier forefields to the excessive pedestal moraines and taking account of the topographical conditions in the verticality. The Pleistocene glacial relief formation is considered as one of the dominating factors in the development of the moraine types. The sediments are on the one hand in situ deposition forms and on the other depositions dislocated by mass movements and represent paraglacial landforms. Using the example of the Paron Valley in the Artesonraju-Huandoy Massif and neighbouring valleys, the article provides a typology of the range of glacial and paraglacial landforms based on a holistic glacial landsystem approach with special reference to pedestal moraines. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.
Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) being an important vegetable is cultivated and used throughout the world. It not only contributes in fulfilling the basic nutritional requirements of the human body but also has many health benefits due to its rich biochemical composition. However, its production at large scale is hampered by many limiting factors such as biotic and abiotic stresses. Among the different abiotic stresses, drought poses drastic impact on tomato yield. Drought stress is genetically regulated by many transcription factors that not only regulate the stress responsive mechanism but also facilitate the growth and development of tomato plants. NAC is an important stress related transcription factor genes family, and the ATAF1 gene, a member of this family, is involved in ABA signaling and stress response. In this study, tomato variety Rio Drande was transformed with drought resistant ATAF1 gene via Agrobacterium mediated gene transformation method. The ATAF1 gene was first cloned in the pK7WFG2 vector having kanamycin selectable marker and then it was introduced in the Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain GV3101 through heat shock method. The tomato cotyledon and hypocotyl ex-plants of variety "Rio Ggrande" were cultured on callus induction medium (MS + 2.5 mg/L IAA + 2 mg/L BAP). The calli were then infected with Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain GV3101 containing ATAF1 gene and selection was carried out on the kanamycin selectable medium (MS + 100 mg/L Kan), and were regenerated on MS medium with 1 mg/L IAA + 1 mg/L BAP. Out of 216 putative transformed calli, 13 calli were able to regenerate on the selection medium. Of the 13 calli, three transgenic tomato plantlets were recovered, and these were confirmed through PCR analysis for the presence of 432 bp fragment of ATAF1 gene. The transformation protocol reported here can be used to generate drought resistant tomato plants in future.
It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
The equatorial electrojet occasionally reverses during morning and afternoon hours, leading to periods of westward current in the ionospheric E region that are known as counter electrojet (CEJ) events. We present the first analysis of CEJ climatology and CEJ dependence on solar flux and lunar phase for the Brazilian sector, based on an extensive ground-based data set for the years 2008 to 2017 from the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (1.2 degrees S, 48.5 degrees W), and we compare it to the results found for Huancayo (12.0 degrees S, 75.3 degrees W) observatory in the Peruvian sector. We found a predominance of morning CEJ events for both sectors. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate in the Brazilian sector is twice as high as in the Peruvian sector. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate strongly depends on season, with maximum rates occurring during the northern-hemisphere summer for the Brazilian sector and during the northern-hemisphere winter for the Peruvian sector. Significant discrepancies between the two sectors are also found for morning CEJ rates during the northern-hemisphere summer. These longitudinal differences are in agreement with a CEJ climatology derived from contemporary Swarm satellite data and can be attributed in part to the well-known longitudinal wave-4 structure in the background equatorial electrojet strength that results from nonmigrating solar tides and stationary planetary waves. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model show that the remaining longitudinal variability in CEJ during northern summer can be explained by the effect of migrating tides in the presence of the varying geomagnetic field in the South Atlantic Anomaly.
TDS-1 GNSS Reflectometry
(2018)
This study presents the development and a systematic evaluation study of GNSS reflectometry wind speeds. After establishing a wind speed retrieval algorithm, UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) derived winds, from May 2015 to July 2017, are compared to the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). ERA-Interim wind fields of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and in situ observation from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array in the Pacific are taken as reference. One-year averaged TDS-1 global winds demonstrate small differences with ECMWF in a majority of areas as well as discuss under- and overestimations. The pioneering TDS-1 winds demonstrate a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias of 2.77 and -0.33 m/s, which are comparable to the RMSE and bias derived by ASCAT winds, as large as 2.31 and 0.25 m/s, respectively. Using buoys measurements as reference, RMSE and bias of 2.23 and -0.03 m/s for TDS-1 as well as 1.40 and -0.68 m/s for ASCAT are obtained. Utilizing rain microwave-infrared estimates of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, rain-affected observation of both ASCAT and TDS-1 are collected and evaluated. Although ASCAT winds show a significant performance degradation resulting in an RMSE and bias of 3.16 and 1.03 m/s, respectively, during rain condition, TDS-1 shows a more reliable performance with an RMSE and bias of 2.94 and -0.21 m/s, respectively, which indicates the promising capability of GNSS forward scattering for wind retrievals during rain. A decrease in TDS-1-derived bistatic radar cross sections during rain events, at weak winds, is also demonstrated.
Recent studies indicate that the tropical belt has been expanding during recent decades, which can significantly influence precipitation in subtropical climates. Often the location of the tropical border is identified using the Hadley cell edge (HCE) or the subtropical jet stream (STJ), but most studies concentrated on the zonal-mean state, thereby missing regional impacts. Here we detect longitudinal-resolved trends in STJ cores and HCEs over 1979-2016 in both hemispheres at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies. Besides pronounced regional trend differences in both sign and magnitude, we show that winter HCE and STJ variability increased in the Mediterranean region and decreased over the American and Asian continents. Rainfall variability in these regions changed likewise, and most of those changes can be explained by changes in HCE/STJ variability. This highlights the importance of understanding future tropical belt changes both regionally and in terms of variability. Plain Language Summary We applied a new network-based method to detect motion of the tropical climate border with longitudinal resolution. Depending on the longitudinal position, there are differences in both direction and magnitude of the border motion. In addition, we demonstrate that the rainfall variability is increasing in the Mediterranean region and decreasing over the American and Asian continents, which can be explained by the variability of the tropical belt location.
Coupling land-use change and hydrologic models for quantification of catchment ecosystem services
(2018)
Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth / diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth / diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
We study the rupture processes of Iquique earthquake 8.1 (2014/04/01) and its largest aftershock 7.7 (2014/04/03) that ruptured the North Chile subduction zone. High-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings and strong motion data are used to reconstruct the evolution of the slip amplitude, rise time and rupture time of both earthquakes. A two-step inversion scheme is assumed, by first building prior models for both earthquakes from the inversion of the estimated static displacements and then, kinematic inversions in the frequency domain are carried out taken into account this prior information. The preferred model for the mainshock exhibits a seismic moment of 1.73 × 1021 Nm ( 8.1) and maximum slip of ∼9 m, while the aftershock model has a seismic moment of 3.88 × 1020 ( 7.7) and a maximum slip of ∼3 m. For both earthquakes, the final slip distributions show two asperities (a shallow one and a deep one) separated by an area with significant slip deficit. This suggests a segmentation along-dip which might be related to a change of the dipping angle of the subducting slab inferred from gravimetric data. Along-strike, the areas where the seismic ruptures stopped seem to be well correlated with geological features observed from geophysical information (high-resolution bathymetry, gravimetry and coupling maps) that are representative of the long-term segmentation of the subduction margin. Considering the spatially limited portions that were broken by these two earthquakes, our results support the idea that the seismic gap is not filled yet.
Knowledge of the present-day crustal in-situ stress field is a key for the understanding of geodynamic processes such as global plate tectonics and earthquakes. It is also essential for the management of geo-reservoirs and underground storage sites for energy and waste. Since 1986, the World Stress Map (WSM) project has systematically compiled the orientation of maximum horizontal stress (S-Hmax). For the 30th anniversary of the project, the WSM database has been updated significantly with 42,870 data records which is double the amount of data in comparison to the database release in 2008. The update focuses on areas with previously sparse data coverage to resolve the stress pattern on different spatial scales. In this paper, we present details of the new WSM database release 2016 and an analysis of global and regional stress pattern. With the higher data density, we can now resolve stress pattern heterogeneities from plate-wide to local scales. In particular, we show two examples of 40 degrees-60 degrees S-Hmax rotations within 70 km. These rotations can be used as proxies to better understand the relative importance of plate boundary forces that control the long wave-length pattern in comparison to regional and local controls of the crustal stress state. In the new WSM project phase IV that started in 2017, we will continue to further refine the information on the S-Hmax orientation and the stress regime. However, we will also focus on the compilation of stress magnitude data as this information is essential for the calibration of geomechanical-numerical models. This enables us to derive a 3-D continuous description of the stress tensor from point-wise and incomplete stress tensor information provided with the WSM database. Such forward models are required for safety aspects of anthropogenic activities in the underground and for a better understanding of tectonic processes such as the earthquake cycle.
The ability of water to transport and transform soil materials is one of the main drivers of soil and landscape development. In turn, soil and landscape properties determine how water is distributed in soil landscapes. Understanding the complex dynamics of this co-evolution of soils, landscapes and the hydrological system is fundamental in adapting land management to changes in climate. Soil-Landscape Evolution Models (SLEMs) are used to simulate the development and evolution of soils and landscapes. However, many hydrologic processes, such as preferential flow and subsurface lateral flow, are currently absent in these models. This limits the applicability of SLEMs to improve our understanding of feedbacks in the hydro-pedo-geomorphological system. Implementation of these hydrologic processes in SLEMs faces several complications related to calculation demands, limited methods for linking pedogenic and hydrologic processes, and limited data on quantification of changes in the hydrological system over time. In this contribution, we first briefly review processes and feedbacks in soil-landscape-hydrological systems. Next, we elaborate on the development required to include these processes in SLEMs. We discuss the state-of-the-art knowledge, identify complications, give partial solutions and suggest important future development. The main requirements for incorporating hydrologic processes in SLEMs are: (1) designing a model framework that can deal with varying timescales for different sets of processes, (2) developing and implementing methods for simulating pedogenesis as a function of water flow, (3) improving and implementing knowledge on the evolution and dynamics of soil hydraulic properties over different timescales, and (4) improving the database on temporal changes and dynamics of flow paths.
Thermal conductivity (lambda) is an essential physical property of minerals and rocks and fundamental in constraining the thermal field of the lithosphere. In case that adequate samples to measure lambda are not available, it could be indirectly inferred from calculation. One of the most widely applied indirect methods for rocks involve modal mineralogy and porosity as parameters that are incorporated into mathematical mean or mixing models. Robust inferences from these approaches for crystalline rocks were impeded by a small number of studied samples or restriction to certain rock types. We employ this method and examine its applicability to low-porosity plutonic rocks by calculating bulk thermal conductivity lambda(b) for 45 samples covering the entire range from gabbro/diorite to granite. We show that the use of the harmonic-mean model for both rock matrix and porosity provided a good match between lambda(b.meas) and lambda(b.calc) of <10% deviation (2 sigma), with relative and absolute errors amounting to 1.49.7% and 4.44.9%, respectively. The results of our study constitute a big step forward to a robust conclusion on the overall applicability of the harmonic-mean model for inferring lambda(b) of isotropic, low-porosity, mafic to silicic plutonic and metamorphic rocks with an acceptable magnitude of error. Drill cuttings and enclaves form particularly interesting objects for application of this method, as they are poorly suited for direct measurement. Well-derived lambda values for those rocks would permit to calculate heat flow and to model more profoundly the thermal state of the deeper lithosphere.
Two ground motion prediction equation models for subduction zones have been tested using a public ground motion database of the KiK-net records obtained by automated processing protocols (Dawood et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1193/071214EQS106). The database contains records of more than 700 interface earthquakes that occurred on the Japan subduction between 1998 and 2012. The Zhao et al. (2006, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122) ground motion prediction equation was shown to be the best suited model for the region. It was then used as backbone to analyze the variability of ground motion records. The residuals between observed and predicted ground motions have been analyzed to study the spatial variation of the earthquakes' ground motion frequency content on the Japan megathrust. This analysis revealed a depth dependency of generated ground motions consistent with the downdip segmentation proposed for subduction interfaces (Lay et al., 2012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009133), a regional ground motion dependency that may be related with lateral variations of the mechanical properties of the subduction interface and a high-frequency radiations drop in the earthquake sequence that preceded the Tohoku-Oki earthquake Mw 9.0. The regional ground motion dependency suggests the existence of different domains along trench of the Japan subduction megathrust that control the ground motions and the wave radiation patterns of interface earthquakes. The location of their boundaries is consistent with the extension of the rupture of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, with pre-Tohoku interseismic coupling, and with the free air gravity anomalies.
Evidence for Quaternary climate change in East Africa has been derived from outcrops on land and lake cores and from marine dust, leaf wax, and pollen records. These data have previously been used to evaluate the impact of climate change on hominin evolution, but correlations have proved to be difficult, given poor data continuity and the great distances between marine cores and terrestrial basins where fossil evidence is located. Here, we present continental coring evidence for progressive aridification since about 575 thousand years before present (ka), based on Lake Magadi (Kenya) sediments. This long-term drying trend was interrupted by many wet-dry cycles, with the greatest variability developing during times of high eccentricity-modulated precession. Intense aridification apparent in the Magadi record took place between 525 and 400 ka, with relatively persistent arid conditions after 350 ka and through to the present. Arid conditions in the Magadi Basin coincide with the Mid-Brunhes Event and overlap with mammalian extinctions in the South Kenya Rift between 500 and 400 ka. The 525 to 400 ka arid phase developed in the South Kenya Rift between the period when the last Acheulean tools are reported (at about 500 ka) and before the appearance of Middle Stone Age artifacts (by about 320 ka). Our data suggest that increasing Middle- to Late-Pleistocene aridification and environmental variability may have been drivers in the physical and cultural evolution of Homo sapiens in East Africa.
Runoff predictions in ungauged arctic basins using conceptual models forced by reanalysis data
(2018)
Due to global warming, the problem of assessing water resources and their vulnerability to climate drivers in the Arctic region has become a focus in the recent years. This study is aimed at investigating three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil, or vegetation cover properties of the studied basins. Model parameter regionalization based on transferring the whole parameter set showed good efficiency for predictions in ungauged basins. We run a blind test of the proposed methodology for ensemble runoff predictions on five sub-basins, for which only monthly observations were available, and obtained promising results for current water resources assessment for a broad domain of ungauged basins in the Russian Arctic.
The lateral and vertical temperature distribution in Oman is so far only poorly understood, particularly in the area between Muscat and the Batinah coast, which is the area of this study and which is composed of Cenozoic sediments developed as part of a foreland basin of the Makran Thrust Zone. Temperature logs (T-logs) were run and physical rock properties of the sediments were analyzed to understand the temperature distribution, thermal and hydraulic properties, and heat-transport processes within the sedimentary cover of northern Oman. An advective component is evident in the otherwise conduction-dominated geothermal play system, and is caused by both topography and density driven flow. Calculated temperature gradients (T-gradients) in two wells that represent conductive conditions are 18.7 and 19.5 °C km−1, corresponding to about 70–90 °C at 2000–3000 m depth. This indicates a geothermal potential that can be used for energy intensive applications like cooling or water desalinization. Sedimentation in the foreland basin was initiated after the obduction of the Semail Ophiolite in the late Campanian, and reflects the complex history of alternating periods of transgressive and regressive sequences with erosion of the Oman Mountains. Thermal and hydraulic parameters were analyzed of the basin’s heterogeneous clastic and carbonate sedimentary sequence. Surface heat-flow values of 46.4 and 47.9 mW m−2 were calculated from the T-logs and calculated thermal conductivity values in two wells. The results of this study serve as a starting point for assessing different geothermal applications that may be suitable for northern Oman.
The phi(ev) is calculated from high-resolution discharge and precipitation data for several rain events with a cumulative precipitation P-cum ranging from less than 5mm to more than 80 mm. Because of the high uncertainty of phi(ev) associated with the hydrograph separation method, phi(ev) is calculated with several methods, including graphical methods, digital filters and a tracer-based method. The results indicate that the hydrological response depends on (theta) over bar (ini): during dry conditions phi(ev) is consistently below 0.1, even for events with high and intense precipitation. Above a threshold of (theta) over bar (ini) = 34 vol % phi(ev) can reach values up to 0.99 but there is a high scatter. Some variability can be explained with a weak correlation of phi(ev) with P-cum and rain intensity, but a considerable part of the variability remains unexplained. It is concluded that threshold-based methods can be helpful to prevent overestimation of the hydrological response during dry catchment conditions. The impact of soil moisture on the hydrological response during wet catchment conditions, however, is still insufficiently understood and cannot be generalized based on the present results.
For several decades the Sant Llorenc de Montgai reservoir has experienced different problems that could affect the safety of the engineering structure. For this reason, several corrective actions have been taken over the years. Here, we present a study involving complementary geophysical methods including electrical resistivity tomography, seismic refraction tomography and frequency-domain electromagnetic surveys. The analysis of the inverted electrical resistivity tomography cross-sections combined with the seismic refraction results and land subsidence monitoring data show the likely mechanism of abnormal seepage. The areas where mortar injections were applied as a corrective measure are also clearly delineated. In addition, the evolution of the state of the embankment has been established from two successive electrical resistivity tomography surveys in the last two decades. The results show areas where corrective mortar injections have been effective, while in other areas new abnormal seepage has been detected. The lithological heterogeneity of the bedrock, especially the dissolution of gypsum-rich rocks, induced subsidence effects and caused abnormal seepage in different areas along the embankment. Our results indicate how corrective solutions can be optimized to reduce the cost of corrective engineering interventions.
For the first time, a rain signature in Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations is demonstrated. Based on the argument that the forward quasi-specular scattering relies upon surface gravity waves with lengths larger than several wavelengths of the reflected signal, a commonly made conclusion is that the scatterometric GNSS-R measurements are not sensitive to the surface small-scale roughness generated by raindrops impinging on the ocean surface. On the contrary, this study presents an evidence that the bistatic radar cross section sigma(0) derived from TechDemoSat-1 data is reduced due to rain at weak winds, lower than approximate to 6 m/s. The decrease is as large as approximate to 0.7 dB at the wind speed of 3 m/s due to a precipitation of 0-2 mm/hr. The simulations based on the recently published scattering theory provide a plausible explanation for this phenomenon which potentially enables the GNSS-R technique to detect precipitation over oceans at low winds.
Meteorological conditions during the ACLOUD/PASCAL field campaign near Svalbard in early summer 2017
(2018)
The two concerted field campaigns, Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD) and the Physical feedbacks of Arctic planetary boundary level Sea ice, Cloud and AerosoL (PASCAL), took place near Svalbard from 23 May to 26 June 2017. They were focused on studying Arctic mixed-phase clouds and involved observations from two airplanes (ACLOUD), an icebreaker (PASCAL) and a tethered balloon, as well as ground-based stations. Here, we present the synoptic development during the 35-day period of the campaigns, using near-surface and upper-air meteorological observations, as well as operational satellite, analysis, and reanalysis data. Over the campaign period, short-term synoptic variability was substantial, dominating over the seasonal cycle. During the first campaign week, cold and dry Arctic air from the north persisted, with a distinct but seasonally unusual cold air outbreak. Cloudy conditions with mostly low-level clouds prevailed. The subsequent 2 weeks were characterized by warm and moist maritime air from the south and east, which included two events of warm air advection. These synoptical disturbances caused lower cloud cover fractions and higher-reaching cloud systems. In the final 2 weeks, adiabatically warmed air from the west dominated, with cloud properties strongly varying within the range of the two other periods. Results presented here provide synoptic information needed to analyze and interpret data of upcoming studies from ACLOUD/PASCAL, while also offering unprecedented measurements in a sparsely observed region.
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.
Subduction zone magmas are more oxidised on eruption than those at mid-ocean ridges. This is attributed either to oxidising components, derived from subducted lithosphere (slab) and added to the mantle wedge, or to oxidation processes occurring during magma ascent via differentiation. Here we provide direct evidence for contributions of oxidising slab agents to melts trapped in the sub-arc mantle. Measurements of sulfur (S) valence state in sub-arc mantle peridotites identify sulfate, both as crystalline anhydrite (CaSO4) and dissolved SO42- in spinel-hosted glass (formerly melt) inclusions. Copper-rich sulfide precipitates in the inclusions and increased Fe3+/Sigma Fe in spinel record a S6+-Fe2+ redox coupling during melt percolation through the sub-arc mantle. Sulfate-rich glass inclusions exhibit high U/Th, Pb/Ce, Sr/Nd and delta S-34 (+ 7 to + 11%), indicating the involvement of dehydration products of serpentinised slab rocks in their parental melt sources. These observations provide a link between liberated slab components and oxidised arc magmas.
Micropetrology
(2018)
Inclusions in minerals, whether fluids, melts or crystalline phases, are small pieces of the large-scale puzzle of Nature, time-consuming to investigate and often of difficult interpretation. Yet they are windows into the past of their host mineral. Mineral inclusions provide the opportunity to unravel the genesis of their host, and the increasingly refined understanding of their elastic behaviour provides the basis for alternative, equilibrium-independent geobarometry. Fluid and melt inclusions reveal information about material transfer in the Earth system, from shallow mineralization to mantle re-fertilization via subduction. The study of inclusions is thus one of the most intriguing and fertile branches of micropetrology. In this contribution, we focus on two recent developments: the use of elasticity models to extract the formation conditions of the host crystal, and the discovery and investigation of melt inclusions in metamorphic rocks. We also discuss how to evaluate the information provided by inclusions, given that they are no longer at the pressure and temperature conditions of entrapment. We discuss how to understand and quantify the changes undergone during cooling and depressurization, and how metastability-related phenomena in inclusions, such as crystallization of rare polymorphs and preservation of the original content of volatiles in fluid and melt inclusions, provide direct evidence that inclusions represent closed systems. The field of study of inclusions in minerals still has a largely untapped potential. The most fruitful avenues for future research will emerge from continuous technological innovation in analytical and imaging techniques, the application of experimental petrology, and the development and application of new theoretical models for coupled mineral behaviour under changing P-T conditions.
Originally developed for use in the petroleum industry, Rock-Eval pyrolysis is a technique commonly applied to lake sediments to infer paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The standard Rock-Eval parameters provide information on the amount of total organic and inorganic carbon (TOC and MinC, respectively), and are usually interpreted as proxies for the source (aquatic or terrestrial) of the primary production of organic matter (Hydrogen Index vs Oxygen Index). Although this method usually provides valuable evidence, the common presence of siderite in tropical lake sediments can alter the primary signal of the sedimentary organic matter (SOM). Indeed, the CO2 and CO released by the pyrolysis of siderite are integral to the calculation of the SOM-related standard Rock-Eval parameters. In this study, we analyze sediments from a core collected in the Lake Barombi (southwest Cameroon) and describe the impact of siderite on standard Rock-Eval parameters. We propose a workflow that allows standard Rock-Eval parameters to be corrected, based on the analysis of thermograms. The proposed corrections provide siderite-effect-free parameters, accurately reflecting the changes in sedimentary organic matter composition. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Abrupt or gradual?
(2018)
We used a change point analysis on a late Pleistocene-Holocene lake-sediment record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift to determine the amplitude and duration of past climate transitions. The most dramatic changes occurred over 240 yr (from similar to 15,700 to 15,460 yr) during the onset of the African Humid Period (AHP), and over 990 yr (from similar to 4875 to 3885 yr) during its protracted termination. The AHP was interrupted by a distinct dry period coinciding with the high-latitude Younger Dryas stadial, which had an abrupt onset (less than similar to 100 yr) at similar to 13,260 yr and lasted until similar to 11,730 yr. Wet-dry-wet transitions prior to the AHP may reflect the high-latitude Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, as indicated by cross-correlation of the potassium record with the NorthGRIP ice core record between similar to 45-20 ka. These findings may contribute to the debates regarding the amplitude, and duration and mechanisms of past climate transitions, and their possible influence on the development of early modern human cultures.
By using 3-year global positioning system (GPS) measurements from December 2013 to November 2016, we provide in this study a detailed survey on the climatology of the GPS signal loss of Swarm onboard receivers. Our results show that the GPS signal losses prefer to occur at both low latitudes between +/- 5 and +/- 20 degrees magnetic latitude (MLAT) and high latitudes above 60 degrees MLAT in both hemispheres. These events at all latitudes are observed mainly during equinoxes and December solstice months, while totally absent during June solstice months. At low latitudes the GPS signal losses are caused by the equatorial plasma irregularities shortly after sunset, and at high latitude they are also highly related to the large density gradients associated with ionospheric irregularities. Additionally, the high-latitude events are more often observed in the Southern Hemisphere, occurring mainly at the cusp region and along nightside auroral latitudes. The signal losses mainly happen for those GPS rays with elevation angles less than 20 degrees, and more commonly occur when the line of sight between GPS and Swarm satellites is aligned with the shell structure of plasma irregularities. Our results also confirm that the capability of the Swarm receiver has been improved after the bandwidth of the phase-locked loop (PLL) widened, but the updates cannot radically avoid the interruption in tracking GPS satellites caused by the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Additionally, after the PLL bandwidth increased larger than 0.5 Hz, some unexpected signal losses are observed even at middle latitudes, which are not related to the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Our results suggest that rather than 1.0 Hz, a PLL bandwidth of 0.5 Hz is a more suitable value for the Swarm receiver.
Numerous charcoal accumulations discovered in the submerged Chan Hol cave near Tulum, Quintana Roo, Mexico, have been C-14-dated revealing ages between 8110 +/- 28 C-14 a BP (9122-8999 cal a BP) and 7177 +/- 27 C-14 a BP (8027-7951 cal a BP). These charcoal concentrations, interpreted here as ancient illumination sites, provide strong evidence that the Chan Hol cave was dry and accessible during that time interval. Humans used the cave for at least 1200 years during the early and middle Holocene, before access was successively interrupted by global sea level rise and flooding of the cave system. Our data thus narrow the gap between an early settlement in the Tulum area reaching from the late Pleistocene (similar to 13 000 a) to middle Holocene (e.g. 7177 C-14 a BP), and the Maya Formative period at approximately 3000 a bp. Yet, no evidence has been presented to date for human settlement during the similar to 4000-year interval between 7000 and 3000 a. This is remarkable as settlement in other areas of south-eastern Mexico (e.g. Chiapas, Tabasco) and in Guatemala was apparently continuous.
Modern mobile devices (i.e. smartphones and tablet computers) are widespread, everyday tools, which are equipped with a variety of sensors including three-axis magnetometers. Here, we investigate the feasibility and the potential of using such mobile devices to mimic geophysical experiments in the classroom in a table-top setup. We focus on magnetic surveying and present a basic setup of a table-top experiment for collecting three-component magnetic data across well-defined source bodies and structures. Our results demonstrate that the quality of the recorded data is sufficient to address a number of important basic concepts in the magnetic method. The shown examples cover the analysis of magnetic data recorded across different kinds of dipole sources, thus illustrating the complexity of magnetic anomalies. In addition, we analyze the horizontal resolution capabilities using a pair of dipole sources placed at different horizontal distances to each other. Furthermore, we demonstrate that magnetic data recorded with a mobile device can even be used to introduce filtering, transformation, and inversion approaches as they are typically used when processing magnetic data sets recorded for real-world field applications. Thus, we conclude that such table-top experiments represent an easy-to-implement experimental procedure (as student exercise or classroom demonstration) and can provide first hands-on experience in the basic principles of magnetic surveying including the fundamentals of data acquisition, analysis and processing, as well as data evaluation and interpretation.
Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth’s rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.
Detections of pP and sP phase arrivals (the so-called depth phases) at teleseismic distance provide one of the best ways to estimate earthquake focal depth, as the P-pP and the P-sP delays are strongly dependent on the depth. Based on a new processing workflow and using a single seismic array at teleseismic distance, we can estimate the depth of clusters of small events down to magnitude M-b 3.5. Our method provides a direct view of the relative variations of the seismicity depth from an active area. This study focuses on the application of this new methodology to study the lateral variations of the Guerrero subduction zone (Mexico) using the Eielson seismic array in Alaska (USA). After denoising the signals, 1232 M-b 3.5 + events were detected, with clear P, pP, sP and PcP arrivals. A high-resolution view of the lateral variations of the depth of the seismicity of the Guerero-Oaxaca area is thus obtained. The seismicity is shown to be mainly clustered along the interface, coherently following the geometry of the plate as constrained by the receiver-function analysis along the Meso America Subduction Experiment profile. From this study, the hypothesis of tears on the western part of Guerrero and the eastern part of Oaxaca are strongly confirmed by dramatic lateral changes in the depth of the earthquake clusters. The presence of these two tears might explain the observed lateral variations in seismicity, which is correlated with the boundaries of the slow slip events.
A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment
(2018)
A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.
Dumortierite was synthesized in piston-cylinder experiments at 2.5-4.0 GPa, 650-700 degrees C in the Al2O3 -B2O3-SiO2-H2O (ABSH) system. Electron-microprobe (EMP) analyses reveal significant boron-excess (up to 0.26 B-[4] per formula unit, pfu) and silicon-deficiency relative to the ideal anhydrous dumortierite stoichiometry Al7BSi3O18 . The EMP data in conjunction with results from single-crystal Raman spectroscopy and powder X-ray diffraction provide evidence that silicon at the tetrahedral site is replaced by excess boron via the substitution Si-[4] <--> B-[4] + H. The Raman spectrum of synthetic dumortierite in the frequency region 2000 4000 cm(-1) comprises eight bands, of which six are located at frequencies below 3400 cm(-1). This points to strong hydrogen bonding, most likely O2-H center dot center dot center dot O7 and O7-H center dot center dot center dot O2, arising from a high number of octahedral vacancies at the All site and substitution of trivalent Al3+ and B3+ for Si4+ at Si1 and Si2 sites, causing decreasing acceptor-donor distances and lower incident valence at the acceptor oxygen. Contrary to the synthetic high-pressure ABSH-dumortierite, magnesiodumortierite from the Dora-Maira Massif, which is assumed to have formed at similar conditions (2.5-3.0 GPa, 700 degrees C), does not show any B-excess. Tourmaline shows an analogous behaviour in that magnesium-rich (e.g., dravitic) tourmaline formed at high pressure shows no or only minor amounts of tetrahedral boron, whereas natural aluminum-rich tourmaline and synthetic olenitic tourmaline formed at high pressures can incorporate significant amounts of tetrahedral boron. Two mechanisms might account for this discrepancy: (i) Structural avoidance of Mg-[6]-(OR3+)-R-[4] configurations in magnesiodumortierite due to charge deficieny at the oxygens O2 and O7 and strong local distortion of M1 due to decreased O2-O7 bond length, and/or (ii) decreasing fluid mobility of boron in Al-rich systems at high pressures.
Python is at the forefront of scientific computation for seismologists and therefore should be introduced to students interested in becoming seismologists. On its own, Python is open source and well designed with extensive libraries. However, Python code can also be executed, visualized, and communicated to others with "Jupyter Notebooks". Thus, Jupyter Notebooks are ideal for teaching students Python and scientific computation. In this article, we designed an openly available Python library and collection of Jupyter Notebooks based on defined scientific computation learning goals for seismology students. The Notebooks cover topics from an introduction to Python to organizing data, earthquake catalog statistics, linear regression, and making maps. Our Python library and collection of Jupyter Notebooks are meant to be used as course materials for an upper-division data analysis course in an Earth Science Department, and the materials were tested in a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard course. However, seismologists or anyone else who is interested in Python for data analysis and map making can use these materials.
The equatorial electrojet is an enhanced eastward current in the dayside E region ionosphere flowing along the magnetic equator. The equatorial electrojet is highly variable as it is subject to various forcing mechanisms including atmospheric waves from the lower layers of the atmosphere. There are occasionally times when the intensity of the equatorial electrojet at a fixed longitude shows an oscillatory variation with a period of approximately 6days. We present case studies of such events based on the equatorial electrojet measurements from the CHAMP and Swarm satellites. The spatial and temporal variability of the equatorial electrojet intensity during these events reveals characteristics of a westward propagating wave with zonal wavenumber 1, consistent with the effect of the quasi-6-day planetary wave. Analyses of the geopotential height data from the Aura satellite confirm the presence of the quasi-6-day planetary wave in the lower thermosphere during the events. The amplitude of the quasi-6-day variation in the equatorial electrojet intensity depends on longitude, but no systematic longitudinal dependence is found for different events. During the event of August 2010, quasi-6-day variations are also observed by ground-based magnetometers and a radar in the Peruvian sector. The effect of the quasi-6-day wave accounts for up to +/- 5.9m/s in the equatorial vertical plasma velocity at noon, which is much larger than previously predicted by a numerical model. These results suggest that the quasi-6-day planetary wave is an important source of short-term variability in the equatorial ionosphere.
The Gongjue basin from the eastern Qiangtang terrane is located in the transition region where the regional structural lineation curves from east-west-oriented in Tibet to north-south-oriented in Yunnan. In this study, we sampled the red beds in the basin from the lower Gongjue to upper Ranmugou formations for the first time covering the entire stratigraphic profile. The stratigraphic ages are bracketed within 53-43Ma by new detrital zircon U-Pb ages constraining the maximum deposition age to 52.51.5Ma. Rock magnetic and petrographic studies indicate that detrital magnetite and hematite are the magnetic carriers. Positive reversals and fold tests demonstrate that the characteristic remanent magnetization has a primary origin. The Gongjue and Ranmugou formations yield mean characteristic remanent magnetization directions of D-s/I-s=31.0 degrees/21.3 degrees and D-s/I-s=15.9 degrees/22.0 degrees, respectively. The magnetic inclination of these characteristic remanent magnetizations is significantly shallowed compared to the expected inclination for the locality. However, the elongation/inclination correction method does not provide a meaningful correction, likely because of syn-depositional rotation. Rotations relative to the Eurasian apparent polar wander path occurred in three stages: Stage I, 33.33.4 degrees clockwise rotation during the deposition of the Gongjue and lower Ranmugou formations; Stage II, 26.93.7 degrees counterclockwise rotation during deposition of the lower and middle Ranmugou formation; and Stage III, 17.73.3 degrees clockwise rotation after 43Ma. The complex rotation history recorded in the basin is possibly linked to sinistral shear along the Qiangtang block during India indentation into Asia and the early stage of the extrusion of the northwestern Indochina blocks away from eastern Tibet.
Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a proteohormone regulating renal phosphate transport and vitamin D metabolism as well as inducing left heart hypertrophy. FGF23-deficient mice suffer from severe tissue calcification, accelerated aging and a myriad of aging-associated diseases. Bone cells produce FGF23 upon store-operated calcium ion entry (SOCE) through the calcium selective ion channel Orai1. AMP-activated kinase (AMPK) is a powerful energy sensor helping cells survive states of energy deficiency, and AMPK down-regulates Orai1. Here we investigated the role of AMPK in FGF23 production. Fgf23 gene transcription was analyzed by qRT-PCR and SOCE by fluorescence optics in UMR106 osteoblast-like cells while the serum FGF23 concentration and phosphate metabolism were assessed in AMPKa1-knockout and wild-type mice. The AMPK activator, 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide (AICAR) down-regulated, whereas the AMPK inhibitor, dorsomorphin dihydrochloride (compound C) and AMPK gene silencing induced Fgf23 transcription. AICAR decreased membrane abundance of Orai1 and SOCE. SOCE inhibitors lowered Fgf23 gene expression induced by AMPK inhibition. AMPKa1-knockout mice had a higher serum FGF23 concentration compared to wild-type mice. Thus, AMPK participates in the regulation of FGF23 production in vitro and in vivo. The inhibitory effect of AMPK on FGF23 production is at least in part mediated by Orai1-involving SOCE.