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The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.
Quantifying the roles of single stations within homogeneous regions using complex network analysis
(2018)
Regionalization and pooling stations to form homogeneous regions or communities are essential for reliable parameter transfer, prediction in ungauged basins, and estimation of missing information. Over the years, several clustering methods have been proposed for regional analysis. Most of these methods are able to quantify the study region in terms of homogeneity but fail to provide microscopic information about the interaction between communities, as well as about each station within the communities. We propose a complex network-based approach to extract this valuable information and demonstrate the potential of our approach using a rainfall network constructed from the Indian gridded daily precipitation data. The communities were identified using the network-theoretical community detection algorithm for maximizing the modularity. Further, the grid points (nodes) were classified into universal roles according to their pattern of within- and between-community connections. The method thus yields zoomed-in details of individual rainfall grids within each community.
Python is at the forefront of scientific computation for seismologists and therefore should be introduced to students interested in becoming seismologists. On its own, Python is open source and well designed with extensive libraries. However, Python code can also be executed, visualized, and communicated to others with "Jupyter Notebooks". Thus, Jupyter Notebooks are ideal for teaching students Python and scientific computation. In this article, we designed an openly available Python library and collection of Jupyter Notebooks based on defined scientific computation learning goals for seismology students. The Notebooks cover topics from an introduction to Python to organizing data, earthquake catalog statistics, linear regression, and making maps. Our Python library and collection of Jupyter Notebooks are meant to be used as course materials for an upper-division data analysis course in an Earth Science Department, and the materials were tested in a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard course. However, seismologists or anyone else who is interested in Python for data analysis and map making can use these materials.
Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth / diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth / diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.
Here we present high-resolution delta O-18 records obtained from speleothems collected in the eastern Bolivian Andes. The stable isotope records are related to the regional- to large-scale atmospheric circulation over South America and allow interpreting changes in delta O-18 during the last 1400 yr as a function of changes in precipitation regimes over the southern tropical Andes. Two distinct phases with more negative delta O-18 values, interpreted as periods of increased convective activity over the eastern Andean Cordillera in Bolivia are observed concomitantly with periods of global climate anomalies during the last millennium, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) respectively. Changes in the Bolivian delta O-18 record during the LIA are apparently related to a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which acts as a main moisture driver to intensify convection over the tropical continent. During the MCA, however, the increased convective activity observed in the Bolivian record is likely the result of a different mechanism, which implies moisture sourced mainly from the southern tropical Atlantic. This interpretation is consistent with paleoclimate records further to the north in the tropical Andes that show progressively drier conditions during this time period, indicating a more northerly position of the ITCZ. The transition period between the MCA and the LIA shows a slight tendency toward increased delta O-18 values, indicating weakened convective activity. Our results also reveal a non-stationary anti-phased behavior between the delta O-18 reconstructions from Bolivia and northeastern Brazil that confirms a continental-scale east-west teleconnection across South America during the LIA.
TDS-1 GNSS Reflectometry
(2018)
This study presents the development and a systematic evaluation study of GNSS reflectometry wind speeds. After establishing a wind speed retrieval algorithm, UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) derived winds, from May 2015 to July 2017, are compared to the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). ERA-Interim wind fields of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and in situ observation from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array in the Pacific are taken as reference. One-year averaged TDS-1 global winds demonstrate small differences with ECMWF in a majority of areas as well as discuss under- and overestimations. The pioneering TDS-1 winds demonstrate a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias of 2.77 and -0.33 m/s, which are comparable to the RMSE and bias derived by ASCAT winds, as large as 2.31 and 0.25 m/s, respectively. Using buoys measurements as reference, RMSE and bias of 2.23 and -0.03 m/s for TDS-1 as well as 1.40 and -0.68 m/s for ASCAT are obtained. Utilizing rain microwave-infrared estimates of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, rain-affected observation of both ASCAT and TDS-1 are collected and evaluated. Although ASCAT winds show a significant performance degradation resulting in an RMSE and bias of 3.16 and 1.03 m/s, respectively, during rain condition, TDS-1 shows a more reliable performance with an RMSE and bias of 2.94 and -0.21 m/s, respectively, which indicates the promising capability of GNSS forward scattering for wind retrievals during rain. A decrease in TDS-1-derived bistatic radar cross sections during rain events, at weak winds, is also demonstrated.
For the first time, a rain signature in Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) observations is demonstrated. Based on the argument that the forward quasi-specular scattering relies upon surface gravity waves with lengths larger than several wavelengths of the reflected signal, a commonly made conclusion is that the scatterometric GNSS-R measurements are not sensitive to the surface small-scale roughness generated by raindrops impinging on the ocean surface. On the contrary, this study presents an evidence that the bistatic radar cross section sigma(0) derived from TechDemoSat-1 data is reduced due to rain at weak winds, lower than approximate to 6 m/s. The decrease is as large as approximate to 0.7 dB at the wind speed of 3 m/s due to a precipitation of 0-2 mm/hr. The simulations based on the recently published scattering theory provide a plausible explanation for this phenomenon which potentially enables the GNSS-R technique to detect precipitation over oceans at low winds.
Woodlands and steppes
(2018)
Based on fossil organism remains including plant macrofossils, charcoal, pollen, and invertebrates preserved in syngenetic deposits of the Batagay permafrost sequence in the Siberian Yana Highlands, we reconstructed the environmental history during marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 to 2. Two fossil assemblages, exceptionally rich in plant remains, allowed for a detailed description of the palaeo-vegetation during two climate extremes of the Late Pleistocene, the onset of the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial. In addition, altogether 41 assemblages were used to outline the vegetation history since the penultimate cold stage of MIS 6. Accordingly, meadow steppes analogue to modern communities of the phytosociological order Festucetalia lenensis formed the primary vegetation during the Saalian and Weichselian cold stages. Cold-resistant tundra-steppe communities (Carici rupestris-Kobresietea bellardii) as they occur above the treeline today were, in contrast to more northern locations, mostly lacking. During the last interglacial, open coniferous woodland similar to modern larch taiga was the primary vegetation at the site. Abundant charcoal indicates wildfire events during the last interglacial. Zoogenic disturbances of the local vegetation were indicated by the presence of ruderal plants, especially by abundant Urtica dioica, suggesting that the area was an interglacial refugium for large herbivores. Meadow steppes, which formed the primary vegetation during cold stages and provided potentially suitable pastures for herbivores, were a significant constituent of the plant cover in the Yana Highlands also under the full warm stage conditions of the last interglacial. Consequently, meadow steppes occurred in the Yana Highlands during the entire investigated timespan from MIS 6 to MIS 2 documenting a remarkable environmental stability. Thus, the proportion of meadow steppe vegetation merely shifted in response to the respectively prevailing climatic conditions. Their persistence indicates low precipitation and a relatively warm growing season throughout and beyond the late Pleistocene. The studied fossil record also proves that modern steppe occurrences in the Yana Highlands did not establish as late as in the Holocene but instead are relicts of a formerly continuous steppe belt extending from Central Siberia to Northeast Yakutia during the Pleistocene. The persistence of plants and invertebrates characteristic of meadow steppe vegetation in interior Yakutia throughout the late Quaternary indicates climatic continuity and documents the suitability of this region as a refugium also for other organisms of the Pleistocene mammoth steppe including the iconic large herbivores. (C)2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The SISAL database
(2018)
Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide "out-of-sample" evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (delta O-18, delta C-13) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or bottom of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information on the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information on the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data.
Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) being an important vegetable is cultivated and used throughout the world. It not only contributes in fulfilling the basic nutritional requirements of the human body but also has many health benefits due to its rich biochemical composition. However, its production at large scale is hampered by many limiting factors such as biotic and abiotic stresses. Among the different abiotic stresses, drought poses drastic impact on tomato yield. Drought stress is genetically regulated by many transcription factors that not only regulate the stress responsive mechanism but also facilitate the growth and development of tomato plants. NAC is an important stress related transcription factor genes family, and the ATAF1 gene, a member of this family, is involved in ABA signaling and stress response. In this study, tomato variety Rio Drande was transformed with drought resistant ATAF1 gene via Agrobacterium mediated gene transformation method. The ATAF1 gene was first cloned in the pK7WFG2 vector having kanamycin selectable marker and then it was introduced in the Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain GV3101 through heat shock method. The tomato cotyledon and hypocotyl ex-plants of variety "Rio Ggrande" were cultured on callus induction medium (MS + 2.5 mg/L IAA + 2 mg/L BAP). The calli were then infected with Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain GV3101 containing ATAF1 gene and selection was carried out on the kanamycin selectable medium (MS + 100 mg/L Kan), and were regenerated on MS medium with 1 mg/L IAA + 1 mg/L BAP. Out of 216 putative transformed calli, 13 calli were able to regenerate on the selection medium. Of the 13 calli, three transgenic tomato plantlets were recovered, and these were confirmed through PCR analysis for the presence of 432 bp fragment of ATAF1 gene. The transformation protocol reported here can be used to generate drought resistant tomato plants in future.
Terrestrial environmental systems are characterised by numerous feedback links between their different compartments. However, scientific research is organized into disciplines that focus on processes within the respective compartments rather than on interdisciplinary links. Major feedback mechanisms between compartments might therefore have been systematically overlooked so far. Without identifying these gaps, initiatives on future comprehensive environmental monitoring schemes and experimental platforms might fail. We performed a comprehensive overview of feedbacks between compartments currently represented in environmental sciences and explores to what degree missing links have already been acknowledged in the literature. We focused on process models as they can be regarded as repositories of scientific knowledge that compile findings of numerous single studies. In total, 118 simulation models from 23 model types were analysed. Missing processes linking different environmental compartments were identified based on a meta-review of 346 published reviews, model inter-comparison studies, and model descriptions. Eight disciplines of environmental sciences were considered and 396 linking processes were identified and ascribed to the physical, chemical or biological domain. There were significant differences between model types and scientific disciplines regarding implemented interdisciplinary links. The most wide-spread interdisciplinary links were between physical processes in meteorology, hydrology and soil science that drive or set the boundary conditions for other processes (e.g., ecological processes). In contrast, most chemical and biological processes were restricted to links within the same compartment. Integration of multiple environmental compartments and interdisciplinary knowledge was scarce in most model types. There was a strong bias of suggested future research foci and model extensions towards reinforcing existing interdisciplinary knowledge rather than to open up new interdisciplinary pathways. No clear pattern across disciplines exists with respect to suggested future research efforts. There is no evidence that environmental research would clearly converge towards more integrated approaches or towards an overarching environmental systems theory. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).
Runoff predictions in ungauged arctic basins using conceptual models forced by reanalysis data
(2018)
Due to global warming, the problem of assessing water resources and their vulnerability to climate drivers in the Arctic region has become a focus in the recent years. This study is aimed at investigating three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil, or vegetation cover properties of the studied basins. Model parameter regionalization based on transferring the whole parameter set showed good efficiency for predictions in ungauged basins. We run a blind test of the proposed methodology for ensemble runoff predictions on five sub-basins, for which only monthly observations were available, and obtained promising results for current water resources assessment for a broad domain of ungauged basins in the Russian Arctic.
Pre-existing weakness zones in the lithosphere such as transform faults/fracture zones and extinct mid-oceanic ridges have been suggested to facilitate subduction initiation in an intra-oceanic environment. Here, we propose that the additional forcing coming from the mantle suction flow is required to trigger the conversion of a fracture zone/transform fault into a converging plate boundary. This suction flow can be induced either from the slab remnants of former converging plate boundaries or/and from slabs of neighbouring active subduction zones. Using 2-D coupled thermo-mechanical models, we show that a sufficiently strong mantle flow is able to convert a fracture zone/transform fault into a subduction zone. However, this process is feasible only if the fracture zone/transform fault is very close to the mid-oceanic ridge. Our numerical model results indicate that time of subduction initiation depends on the velocity, domain size and location of mantle suction flow and age of the oceanic plate.
Linking deep seismic profiles with regional-scale gravity inversion is a powerful tool to deduce the architecture of rifted margins and their structural evolution. Here we map upper and lower crustal thicknesses of the northern South China Sea (SCS) margin in order to investigate the occurrence of depth-dependent crustal extension from the proximal to the distal margin. By comparing upper and lower crustal stretching factors, we find that the northern margin of the SCS is segmented in three parts: (1) sedimentary basins where upper crust is stretched more than lower crust, (2) distal margin where lower crust is stretched more than upper crust, (3) mostly proximal margin regions where the two layers have similar stretching factors. Our results suggest that sedimentary basins and distal margin prominently feature depth-dependent extension, however accommodated by different processes. While differential thinning within sedimentary basins appears to be governed by lateral pressure variations inducing lower crustal flow, we suggest the distal margin to be affected by a combination of mantle flow-induced lower crustal shearing and sequential fault activity during crustal hyper-extension.
The Central Pontides of N Turkey represents a mobile orogenic belt of the southern Eurasian margin that experienced several phases of exhumation associated with the consumption of different branches of the Neo-Tethys Ocean and the amalgamation of continental domains. Our new low-temperature thermochronology data help to constrain the timing of these episodes, providing new insights into associated geodynamic processes. In particular, our data suggest that exhumation occurred at (1) similar to 110 to 90Ma, most likely during tectonic accretion and exhumation of metamorphic rocks from the subduction zone; (2) from similar to 60 to 40Ma, during the collision of the Kirehir and Anatolide-Tauride microcontinental domains with the Eurasian margin; (3) from similar to 0 to 25Ma, either during the early stages of the Arabia-Eurasia collision (soft collision) when the Arabian passive margin reached the trench, implying 70 to 530km of subduction of the Arabian passive margin, or during a phase of trench advance predating hard collision at similar to 20Ma; and (4) similar to 11Ma to the present, during transpression associated with the westward motion of Anatolia. Our findings document the punctuated nature of fault-related exhumation, with episodes of fast cooling followed by periods of slow cooling or subsidence, the role of inverted normal faults in controlling the Paleogene exhumation pattern, and of the North Anatolian Fault in dictating the most recent pattern of exhumation.
The lack of process-based classification procedures may lead to unrealistic hyetograph design due to complex oscillation of rainfall depths when assimilated at high temporal resolutions. Four consecutive years of sub-hourly rainfall data were assimilated in three study areas (Guaraira, GEB, Sao Joao do Cariri, CEB, and Aiuaba, AEB) under distinct climates (very hot semi-arid and tropical wet). This study aimed to define rainfall events (for Minimum Inter-event Time, MIT, and Minimum Rainfall Depth, MRD, equal to 30 min and 1.016 mm, respectively), classify their hyetograph types (rectangular, R, unimodal with left-skewed, UL, right-skewed, UR, and centred peaks, UC, bimodal, B, and shapeless, SL), and compare their key rainfall properties (frequency, duration, depth, rate and peak). A rain pulse aggregation process allowed for reshaping SL-events for six different time spans varying from 2 to 30 min. The results revealed that the coastal area held predominantly R-events (64% events and 49% rainfall depth), in western semi-arid prevailed UL-events (57% events and 63% rainfall depth), whereas in eastern semi-arid mostly were R-events (61% events and 30% rainfall depth) similar to coastal area. It is concluded that each cloud formation type had important effects on hyetograph properties, differentiating them even within the same climate.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a promising proximal soil sensing technique to estimate soil moisture at intermediate scale and high temporal resolution. However, the signal shows complex and non-unique response to all hydrogen pools near the land surface, providing some challenges for soil moisture estimation in practical applications. Aims of the study were 1) to assess the uncertainty of CRNS as a stand-alone approach to estimate volumetric soil moisture in cropped field 2) to identify the causes of this uncertainty 3) and possible improvements. Two experimental sites in Germany were equipped with a CRNS probe and point-scale soil moisture network. Additional monitoring activities were conducted during the crop growing season to characterize the soil-plant systems. This data is used to identify and quantify the different sources of uncertainty (factors). An uncertainty analysis, based on Monte Carlo approach, is applied to propagate these uncertainties to CRNS soil moisture estimations. In addition, a sensitivity analysis based on the Sobol’ method is performed to identify the most important factors explaining this uncertainty. Results show that CRNS soil moisture compares well to the soil moisture network when these point-scale values are weighted to account for the spatial sensitivity of the signal and other sources of hydrogen (lattice water and organic carbon) are added to the water content. However, the performance decreases when CRNS is considered as a stand-alone method to retrieve the actual (non-weighted) volumetric soil moisture. The support volume (penetration depth and radius) shows also a considerable uncertainty, especially in relatively dry soil moisture conditions. Four of the seven factors analyzed (the vertical soil moisture profile, bulk density, incoming neutron correction and the calibrated parameter N0) were found to play an important role. Among the possible improvements identified, a simple correction factor based on vertical point-scale soil moisture profiles shows to be a promising approach to account for the sensitivity of the CRNS signal to the upper soil layers.
Subduction zone magmas are more oxidised on eruption than those at mid-ocean ridges. This is attributed either to oxidising components, derived from subducted lithosphere (slab) and added to the mantle wedge, or to oxidation processes occurring during magma ascent via differentiation. Here we provide direct evidence for contributions of oxidising slab agents to melts trapped in the sub-arc mantle. Measurements of sulfur (S) valence state in sub-arc mantle peridotites identify sulfate, both as crystalline anhydrite (CaSO4) and dissolved SO42- in spinel-hosted glass (formerly melt) inclusions. Copper-rich sulfide precipitates in the inclusions and increased Fe3+/Sigma Fe in spinel record a S6+-Fe2+ redox coupling during melt percolation through the sub-arc mantle. Sulfate-rich glass inclusions exhibit high U/Th, Pb/Ce, Sr/Nd and delta S-34 (+ 7 to + 11%), indicating the involvement of dehydration products of serpentinised slab rocks in their parental melt sources. These observations provide a link between liberated slab components and oxidised arc magmas.
Three spinel lherzolite xenoliths from Mt. Quincan (Queensland, northeastern Australia) were studied with special attention to their enclosed fluid inclusions. The xenoliths are deformed, have porphyroclastic textures and overall show very similar petrographic features. The only significant difference is manifested in the abundance of fluid inclusions in the samples, mostly in orthopyroxene porphyroclasts. Xenolith JMTQ11 is fluid inclusion-free, whereas xenolith JMTQ20 shows a high abundance of fluid inclusions (fluid inclusion-rich). Xenolith JMTQ45 represents a transitional state between the previous two, as it contains only a small amount of fluid inclusions (fluid inclusion-bearing). Previous studies revealed that these xenoliths and the entrapped fluid inclusions represent a former addition of a MORB-type fluid to the pre-existing lithosphere, resulting from asthenosphere upwelling. There is a progressive enrichment in LREE, Nb, Sr and Ti from the fluid inclusion-free xenolith through the fluid inclusion-bearing one to the fluid inclusion-rich lherzolite. This suggests an increase in the extent of the interaction between the fluid-rich melt and the lherzolite wallrock. In addition, the same interaction is considered to be responsible for the formation of pargasitic amphibole as well. The presence of fluid inclusions indicates fluid migration at mantle depth, and their association with exsolution lamellae in orthopyroxene suggests fluid entrapment following the continental rifting (thermal relaxation) during cooling. A series of analyses, including microthermometry coupled with Raman spectroscopy, FTIR hyperspectral imaging, and Focused Ion Beam-Scanning Electron Microscopy (FIB-SEM) was carried out on the fluid inclusions. Based on the results, the entrapped high-density fluid is composed of 7589 mol% CO2, 918 mol% H2O, 0.11.7 mol% N-2 and <= 0.5 mol% H2S with dissolved trace elements (melt component). Our findings suggest that the metasomatic fluid phase could have been either a fluid/fluid-rich silicate melt released from the deeper asthenosphere, or a coexisting incipient fluid-rich silicate melt. Further cooling, possibly due to thermal relaxation and the upward migration of the fluid phase, caused the investigated lherzolites to reach pargasite stability conditions. We conclude that pargasite, even if only present in very limited modal proportions, can be a common phase at spinel lherzolite stability in the lithospheric upper mantle in continental rift back-arc settings. Studies of fluid inclusions indicate that significant CO2 release from the asthenosphere in a continental rifting environment is resulting from asthenosphere upwelling and its addition to the lithospheric mantle together with fluid-rich melt lherzolite interaction that leaves a CO2-rich fluid behind.
The effects of climate and topography on soil physico-chemical and microbial parameters were studied along an extensive latitudinal climate gradient in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile (26 degrees-38 degrees S). The study sites encompass arid (Pan de Azucar), semiarid (Santa Gracia), mediterranean (La Campana) and humid (Nahuelbuta) climates and vegetation, ranging from arid desert, dominated by biological soil crusts (biocrusts), semiarid shrubland and mediterranean sclerophyllous forest, where biocrusts are present but do have a seasonal pattern to temperate-mixed forest, where biocrusts only occur as an early pioneering development stage after disturbance. All soils originate from granitic parent materials and show very strong differences in pedogenesis intensity and soil depth. Most of the investigated physical, chemical and microbiological soil properties showed distinct trends along the climate gradient. Further, abrupt changes between the arid northernmost study site and the other semi-arid to humid sites can be shown, which indicate non-linearity and thresholds along the climate gradient. Clay and total organic carbon contents (TOC) as well as Ah horizons and solum depths increased from arid to humid climates, whereas bulk density (BD), pH values and base saturation (BS) decreased. These properties demonstrate the accumulation of organic matter, clay formation and element leaching as key-pedogenic processes with increasing humidity. However, the soils in the northern arid climate do not follow this overall latitudinal trend, because texture and BD are largely controlled by aeolian input of dust and sea salts spray followed by the formation of secondary evaporate minerals. Total soil DNA concentrations and TOC increased from arid to humid sites, while areal coverage by biocrusts exhibited an opposite trend. Relative bacterial and archaeal abundances were lower in the arid site, but for the other sites the local variability exceeds the variability along the climate gradient. Differences in soil properties between topographic positions were most pronounced at the study sites with the mediterranean and humid climate, whereas microbial abundances were independent on topography across all study sites. In general, the regional climate is the strongest controlling factor for pedogenesis and microbial parameters in soils developed from the same parent material. Topographic position along individual slopes of limited length augmented this effect only under humid conditions, where water erosion likely relocated particles and elements downward. The change from alkaline to neutral soil pH between the arid and the semi-arid site coincided with qualitative differences in soil formation as well as microbial habitats. This also reflects non-linear relationships of pedogenic and microbial processes in soils depending on climate with a sharp threshold between arid and semi-arid conditions. Therefore, the soils on the transition between arid and semi-arid conditions are especially sensitive and may be well used as indicators of long and medium-term climate changes. Concluding, the unique latitudinal precipitation gradient in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile is predestined to investigate the effects of the main soil forming factor - climate - on pedogenic processes.
Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are calibrated to predict the intensity of ground shaking at any given location, based on earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, local soil amplifications, and other parameters. GMPEs are generally assumed to be independent of time; however, evidence is increasing that large earthquakes modify the shallow soil conditions and those of the fault zone for months or years. These changes may affect the intensity of shaking and result in time‐dependent effects that can potentially be resolved by analyzing between‐event residuals (residuals between observed and predicted ground motion for individual earthquakes averaged over all stations). Here, we analyze a data set of about 65,000 recordings for about 1400 earthquakes in the moment magnitude range 2.5–6.5 that occurred in central Italy from 2008 to 2017 to capture the temporal variability of the ground shaking at high frequency. We first compute between‐event residuals for each earthquake in the Fourier domain with respect to a GMPE developed ad hoc for the analyzed data set. The between‐events show large changes after the occurrence of mainshocks such as the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila, the 2016 Mw 6.2 Amatrice, and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes. Within the time span of a few months after the mainshocks, the between‐event contribution to the ground shaking varies by a factor 7. In particular, we find a large drop in the between‐events in the aftermath of the L'Aquila earthquake, followed by a slow positive trend that leads to a recovery interrupted by a new drop at the beginning of 2014. We also quantify the frequency‐dependent correlation between the Brune stress drop Δσ and the between‐events. We find that the temporal changes of Δσ resemble those of the between‐event residuals; in particular, during the period when the between‐events show the positive trend, the average logarithm of Δσ increases with an annual rate of 0.19 (i.e., the amplification factor for Δσ is 1.56 per year). Breakpoint analysis located a change in the linear trend coefficients of Δσ versus time in February 2014, although no large earthquakes occurred at that time. Finally, the temporal variability of Δσ mirrors the relative seismic‐velocity variations observed in previous studies for the same area and period, suggesting that both crack healing along the main fault system and healing of microcracks distributed at shallow depths throughout the surrounding region might be necessary to explain the wider observations of postearthquake recovery.
We present the results of a consistency check performed over the flatfile extracted from the engineering strong motion (ESM) database. The flatfile includes 23,014 recordings from 2179 earthquakes in the magnitude range from 3.5 to 7.8 that occurred since the 1970s in Europe and Middle East, as presented in the companion article by Lanzano et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2018a). The consistency check is developed by analyzing different residual distributions obtained from ad-hoc ground motion prediction equations for the absolute spectral acceleration (SA), displacement and Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS). Only recordings from earthquakes shallower than 40 km are considered in the analysis. The between-event, between-station and event-and-station corrected residuals are computed by applying a mixed-effect regression. We identified those earthquakes, stations, and recordings showing the largest deviations from the GMPE median predictions, and also evaluated the statistical uncertainty on the median model to get insights on the applicable magnitude–distance ranges and the usable period (or frequency) range. We observed that robust median predictions are obtained up to 8 s for SA and up to 20 Hz for FAS, although median predictions for Mw ≥ 7 show significantly larger uncertainties with ‘bumps’ starting above 5 s for SA and below 0.3 Hz for FAS. The between-station variance dominates over the other residual variances, and the dependence of the between-station residuals on logarithm of Vs30 is well-described by a piece-wise linear function with period-dependent slopes and hinge velocity around 580 m/s. Finally, we compared the between-event residuals obtained by considering two different sources of moment magnitude. The results show that, at long periods, the between-event terms from the two regressions have a weak correlation and the overall between-event variability is dissimilar, highlighting the importance of magnitude source in the regression results.
Natural thermoluminescence (TL) in rocks reflects a dynamic equilibrium between radiation-induced TL growth and decay via thermal and athermal pathways. When rocks exhume through Earth's crust and cool from high to low temperature, this equilibrium level increases as the temperature dependent thermal decay decreases. This phenomenon can be exploited to extract thermal histories of rocks. The main advantage of TL is that a single TL glow curve has a wide range of thermal stabilities (lifetime <ka to Ba), and hence can provide multiple constraints on thermal histories. Here we constrain the distribution of kinetic parameters of TL in feldspar using a glow curve deconvolution method and fitting infinitesimal sub-peaks using a general order kinetic model. Each peak corresponds to a different but closely located energy level E. Forward modeling is applied for different time-temperature histories to estimate the sensitivity and limitation of each signal for different cooling rates. The results show that it is possible to constrain thermal histories between ∼30 °C and ∼80 °C. The results also illustrate that shallower traps, i.e. with lower activation energies, can be exploited to constrain lower cooling histories >100 °C/Ma, whereas deeper traps, i.e. with higher activation energies, provide constraints on thermal histories for higher cooling rates (>300 °C/Ma). Finally, we show how the path of rock exhumation (i.e., depth vs. time) can be constrained using an inverse approach. The newly developed methodology is applied to rapidly cooled samples from the Namche Barwa massif, eastern Himalaya to suggest a trend in exhumation rate with time that follows an inverse correlation with global temperature and glaciers equilibrium altitude line (ELA).
Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5% and 14% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71-0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. (c) 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Soil pollutants such as hydrocarbons can induce toxic effects in plants and associated arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). This study was conducted to evaluate if the legume Lotus corniculatus and the grass Elymus trachycaulus and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi could grow in two oil sands processing by-products after bitumen extraction from the oil sands in northern Alberta, Canada. Substrate treatments were coarse tailings sand (CTS), a mix of dry mature fine tailings (MFT) with CTS (1: 1) and Pleistocene sandy soil (hydrocarbon free); microbial treatments were without AMF, with AMF and AMF plus soil bacteria isolated from oil sands reclamation sites. Plant biomass, root morphology, leaf water content, shoot tissue phosphorus content and mycorrhizal colonization were evaluated. Both plant species had reduced growth in CTS and tailings mix relative to sandy soil. AMF frequency and intensity in roots of E. trachycaulus was not influenced by soil hydrocarbons; however, it decreased significantly over time in roots of L. corniculatus without bacteria in CTS. Mycorrhizal inoculation alone did not significantly improve plant growth in CTS and tailings mix; however, inoculation with mycorrhizae plus bacteria led to a significantly positive response of both plant species in CTS. Thus, combined inoculation with selected mycorrhizae and bacteria led to synergistic effects. Such combinations may be used in future to improve plant growth in reclamation of CTS and tailings mix.
Granitic melt inclusions were found in layers of garnet clinopyroxenites from orogenic peridotites hosted in high-pressure felsic granulites of the Granulitgebirge, central Europe. The inclusions are both glassy and crystallized, and occur as clusters in the garnet. Microstructural features suggest that the inclusions formed while garnet was growing as a peritectic phase, likely alongside clinopyroxene. The chemistry of the melt, in particular its trace element signature, shows a crustal contribution, probably due to the involvement of phengite in the melt-producing reaction, most likely in the presence of a fluid. The presence of a granitoid melt in mantle rocks may be the result of localized melting of a phengite-bearing protolith either already present in the peridotites or, more likely, within the local deeply subducted crustal units. In the latter case, the melt would have infiltrated the peridotites and generated pyroxenite via metasomatism. In either case, the presence of granitoid inclusions in orogenic peridotite provides direct evidence for a genetic connection between a high-pressure crustal melt and garnet pyroxenites. The in situ characterization of these remnants of natural melt provides direct quantitative constraints on (one of) the agents responsible for the interaction between crust and mantle.
One of the main purposes of detrital thermochronology is to provide constraints on the regional-scale exhumation rate and its spatial variability in actively eroding mountain ranges. Procedures that use cooling age distributions coupled with hypsometry and thermal models have been developed in order to extract quantitative estimates of erosion rate and its spatial distribution, assuming steady state between tectonic uplift and erosion. This hypothesis precludes the use of these procedures to assess the likely transient response of mountain belts to changes in tectonic or climatic forcing. Other methods are based on an a priori knowledge of the in situ distribution of ages to interpret the detrital age distributions. In this paper, we describe a simple method that, using the observed detrital mineral age distributions collected along a river, allows us to extract information about the relative distribution of erosion rates in an eroding catchment without relying on a steady-state assumption, the value of thermal parameters or an a priori knowledge of in situ age distributions. The model is based on a relatively low number of parameters describing lithological variability among the various sub-catchments and their sizes and only uses the raw ages. The method we propose is tested against synthetic age distributions to demonstrate its accuracy and the optimum conditions for it use. In order to illustrate the method, we invert age distributions collected along the main trunk of the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra river system in the eastern Himalaya. From the inversion of the cooling age distributions we predict present-day erosion rates of the catchments along the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra river system, as well as some of its tributaries. We show that detrital age distributions contain dual information about present-day erosion rate, i. e., from the predicted distribution of surface ages within each catchment and from the relative contribution of any given catchment to the river distribution. The method additionally allows comparing modern erosion rates to long-term exhumation rates. We provide a simple implementation of the method in Python code within a Jupyter Notebook that includes the data used in this paper for illustration purposes.
The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100 years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
How information about sediment transport processes is transmitted to the sedimentary record remains a complex problem for the interpretation of fluvial stratigraphy. Alluvial fan deposits represent the condensed archive of sediment transport, which is at least partly controlled by tectonics and climate. For three coupled catchment-fan systems in northern Death Valley, California, we measure grain size across 12 well-preserved Holocene and late-Pleistocene surfaces, mapped in detail from field observations and remote sensing. Our results show that fan surfaces correlated to the late Pleistocene are, on average, 30-50% coarser than active or Holocene fan surfaces. We adopt a self-similar form of grain size distribution based on the observed stability of the ratio between mean grain size and standard deviation downstream. Using statistical analysis, we show that fan surface grain size distributions are self-similar. We derive a relative mobility function using our self-similar grain size distributions, which describes the relative probability of a given grain size being transported. We show that the largest mobile grain sizes are between 20 and 35mm, a value that varies over time and is clearly lower in the Holocene than in the Pleistocene; a change we suggest is due to a drier climate in the Holocene. These results support recent findings that alluvial fan sedimentology can record past environmental change and that these landscapes are potentially sensitive to climatic change over a glacial-interglacial cycle. We demonstrate that the self-similarity methodology offers a means to explore changes in relative mobility of grain sizes from preserved fluvial deposits. Plain Language Summary A key challenge in Earth Science is understanding how landscapes respond to climate. It may be possible to observe measurable differences in certain landscapes settings such as alluvial fans in desert regions. Alluvial fans are believed to be effective recorders of climate, representing a cumulative store of material transported downstream by rainfall-sensitive river systems. In northern Death Valley, California, we measure at high resolution grain size on three alluvial fans with surfaces that date from the Holocene and the arid climate of today to the 20-40% wetter late-Pleistocene epoch. We find that older late-Pleistocene surfaces are coarser on average than surfaces deposited during the modern and Holocene dry period, suggesting a changing sediment transport regime potentially in response to precipitation. We also show that measured grain size distributions within and between surfaces can be successfully normalized based on the decay in mean grain size and variance downstream, exhibiting a self-similar pattern. Finally, we employ a grain size relative mobility model using our field data to establish which grain sizes are likely to be in transport or locked in the substrate. This model predicts that during the wetter late-Pleistocene mobile grain sizes are up to 40% larger than during the Holocene.
Movements of tectonic plates often induce oblique deformation at divergent plate boundaries. This is in striking contrast with traditional conceptual models of rifting and rifted margin formation, which often assume 2-D deformation where the rift velocity is oriented perpendicular to the plate boundary. Here we quantify the validity of this assumption by analysing the kinematics of major continent-scale rift systems in a global plate tectonic reconstruction from the onset of Pangea breakup until the present day. We evaluate rift obliquity by joint examination of relative extension velocity and local rift trend using the script-based plate reconstruction software pyGPlates. Our results show that the global mean rift obliquity since 230 Ma amounts to 34 degrees with a standard deviation of 24 degrees, using the convention that the angle of obliquity is spanned by extension direction and rift trend normal. We find that more than similar to 70 % of all rift segments exceeded an obliquity of 20 degrees demonstrating that oblique rifting should be considered the rule, not the exception. In many cases, rift obliquity and extension velocity increase during rift evolution (e.g. Australia-Antarctica, Gulf of California, South Atlantic, India-Antarctica), which suggests an underlying geodynamic correlation via obliquity-dependent rift strength. Oblique rifting produces 3-D stress and strain fields that cannot be accounted for in simplified 2-D plane strain analysis. We therefore highlight the importance of 3-D approaches in modelling, surveying, and interpretation of most rift segments on Earth where oblique rifting is the dominant mode of deformation.
Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.
We propose a reduced dynamical system describing the coupled evolution of fluid flow and magnetic field at the top of the Earth's core between the years 1900 and 2014. The flow evolution is modeled with a first-order autoregressive process, while the magnetic field obeys the classical frozen flux equation. An ensemble Kalman filter algorithm serves to constrain the dynamics with the geomagnetic field and its secular variation given by the COV-OBS.x1 model. Using a large ensemble with 40,000 members provides meaningful statistics including reliable error estimates. The model highlights two distinct flow scales. Slowly varying large-scale elements include the already documented eccentric gyre. Localized short-lived structures include distinctly ageostophic features like the high-latitude polar jet on the Northern Hemisphere. Comparisons with independent observations of the length-of-day variations not only validate the flow estimates but also suggest an acceleration of the geostrophic flows over the last century. Hindcasting tests show that our model outperforms simpler predictions bases (linear extrapolation and stationary flow). The predictability limit, of about 2,000 years for the magnetic dipole component, is mostly determined by the random fast varying dynamics of the flow and much less by the geomagnetic data quality or lack of small-scale information.
Crop yield variations are strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal availabilities of water and nitrogen in the soil during the crop growth season. To estimate the quantities and distributions of water and nitrogen within a given soil, process-oriented soil models have often been used. These models require detailed information about the soil characteristics and profile architecture (e.g., soil depth, clay content, bulk density, field capacity and wilting point), but high resolution information about these soil properties, both vertically and laterally, is difficult to obtain through conventional approaches. However, on-the-go electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements of the soil and data inversion tools have recently improved the lateral resolutions of the vertically distributed measurable information. Using these techniques, nearly 19,000 virtual soil profiles with defined layer depths were successfully created for a 30 ha silty cropped soil over loamy and sandy substrates in Central Germany, which were used to initialise the CArbon and Nitrogen DYnamics (CANDY) model. The soil clay content was derived from the electrical resistivity (ER) and the collected soil samples using a simple linear regression approach (the mean R-2 of clay = 0.39). The additional required structural and hydrological properties were derived from pedotransfer functions. The modelling results, derived soil texture distributions and original ER data were compared with the spatial winter wheat yield distribution in a relatively dry year using regression and boundary line analysis. The yield variation was best explained by the simulated soil water content (R-2 = 0.18) during the grain filling and was additionally validated by the measured soil water content with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.5 Vol%.
The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used.
Prior to the development of the modern Amazonian drainage network during the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene, large areas of western Amazonia may have been occupied by an extensive lacustrine and wetland environment known as the Pebas and Acre systems. These depositional systems are thought to have formed in response to foreland subsidence east of the uplifting Andes. Based on the occurrence at a present-day elevation of 1600 m of fossil pearly freshwater mussels of the genus Anodontites (indet. species) in intermontane Chota Basin of northern Ecuador (the westernmost South American fossil record for this genus), we discuss their potential implications for understanding of westernmost limit of the Miocene wetland ecosystem and consequently a later timing for the regional uplift of the Eastern Cordillera.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.
The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition.
By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.
Small repeating earthquakes are thought to represent rupture of isolated asperities loaded by surrounding creep. The observed scaling between recurrence interval and seismic moment, T-r approximate to M-1/6, contrasts with expectation assuming constant stress drop and no aseismic slip (T-r approximate to M-1/3). Here we demonstrate that simple crack models of velocity-weakening asperities in a velocity-strengthening fault predict the M-1/6 scaling; however, the mechanism depends on asperity radius, R. For small asperities ( , where R is the nucleation radius) numerical simulations with rate-state friction show interseismic creep penetrating inward from the edge, and earthquakes nucleate in the center and rupture the entire asperity. Creep penetration accounts for approximate to 25% of the slip budget, the nucleation phase takes up a larger fraction of slip. Stress drop increases with increasing R; the lack of self-similarity being due to the finite nucleation dimension. For 2R<R less than or similar to 6Rsimulations exhibit simple cycles with ruptures nucleating from the edge. Asperities with R6R exhibit complex cycles of partial and full ruptures. Here T-r is explained by an energy criterion: full rupture requires that the energy release rate everywhere on the asperity at least equals the fracture energy, leading to the scaling T-r approximate to M-1/6. Remarkably, in spite of the variability in behavior with source dimension, the scaling of T-r with stress drop , nucleation length and creep rate v(pl) is the same across all regimes: Tr approximate to vpl. This supports the use of repeating earthquakes as creepmeters and provides a physical interpretation for the scaling observed in nature. Plain Language Summary While most earthquake sequences have complex temporal patterns, some small earthquakes are quite predictable: they repeat periodically. The time between consecutive events (recurrence interval) grows with earthquake size: as intuitive, it takes longer to accumulate the mechanical energy for large earthquakes. However, the scaling between the recurrence interval and earthquake energy (seismic moment) is not what simple physical considerations predict. It is often assumed that faults are locked between events and seismic slip must therefore keep up with long-term plate motion. This leads to the scaling: Tr approximate to M01/3, but the observed scaling is . In fact, faults are not fully locked between earthquakes: they can slip slowly, or release part of the energy in smaller quakes between the larger ones. Here we use numerical simulations, and ideas from fracture mechanics, to understand what controls the time between repeating quakes. The main results are (1) analytical expressions of the recurrence interval as a function of earthquake size, predicting the observed scaling; (2) explanation of the differences between the cycle of small and large earthquakes (fraction of slow slip, direction of rupture propagation, and the occurrence of smaller quakes between large ones) and the quantities determining these transitions.
Kim et al. recently measured the structure factor of deeply supercooled water droplets (Reports, 22 December 2017, p. 1589). We raise several concerns about their data analysis and interpretation. In our opinion, the reported data do not lead to clear conclusions about the origins of water’s anomalies.
A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment
(2018)
A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.
Coastal ecosystems in the Arctic are affected by climate change. As summer rainfall frequency and intensity are projected to increase in the future, more organic matter, nutrients and sediment could bemobilized and transported into the coastal nearshore zones. However, knowledge of current processes and future changes is limited. We investigated streamflow dynamics and the impacts of summer rainfall on lateral fluxes in a small coastal catchment on Herschel Island in the western Canadian Arctic. For the summer monitoring periods of 2014-2016, mean dissolved organic matter flux over 17 days amounted to 82.7 +/- 30.7 kg km(-2) and mean total dissolved solids flux to 5252 +/- 1224 kg km(-2). Flux of suspended sediment was 7245 kg km(-2) in 2015, and 369 kg km(-2) in 2016. We found that 2.0% of suspended sediment was composed of particulate organic carbon. Data and hysteresis analysis suggest a limited supply of sediments; their interannual variability is most likely caused by short-lived localized disturbances. In contrast, our results imply that dissolved organic carbon is widely available throughout the catchment and exhibits positive linear relationship with runoff. We hypothesize that increased projected rainfall in the future will result in a similar increase of dissolved organic carbon fluxes.
With the growing size and use of night light time series from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band (DNB), it is important to understand the stability of the dataset. All satellites observe differences in pixel values during repeat observations. In the case of night light data, these changes can be due to both environmental effects and changes in light emission. Here we examine the stability of individual locations of particular large scale light sources (e.g., airports and prisons) in the monthly composites of DNB data from April 2012 to September 2017. The radiances for individual pixels of most large light emitters are approximately normally distributed, with a standard deviation of typically 15-20% of the mean. Greenhouses and flares, however, are not stable sources. We observe geospatial autocorrelation in the monthly variations for nearby sites, while the correlation for sites separated by large distances is small. This suggests that local factors contribute most to the variation in the pixel radiances and furthermore that averaging radiances over large areas will reduce the total variation. A better understanding of the causes of temporal variation would improve the sensitivity of DNB to lighting changes.
Himalayan rivers are frequently hit by catastrophic floods that are caused by the failure of glacial lake and landslide dams; however, the dynamics and long-term impacts of such floods remain poorly understood. We present a comprehensive set of observations that capture the July 2016 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi River of Nepal. Seismic records of the flood provide new insights into GLOF mechanics and their ability to mobilize large boulders that otherwise prevent channel erosion. Because of this boulder mobilization, GLOF impacts far exceed those of the annual summer monsoon, and GLOFs may dominate fluvial erosion and channel-hillslope coupling many tens of kilometers downstream of glaciated areas. Long-term valley evolution in these regions may therefore be driven by GLOF frequency and magnitude, rather than by precipitation.
Reducing uncertainties about carbon cycling is important in the Arctic where rapid environmental changes contribute to enhanced mobilization of carbon. Here we quantify soil organic carbon (SOC) contents of permafrost soils along the Yukon Coastal Plain and determine the annual fluxes from coastal erosion. Different terrain units were assessed based on surficial geology, morphology, and ground ice conditions. To account for the volume of wedge ice and massive ice in a unit, SOC contents were reduced by 19% and sediment contents by 16%. The SOC content in a 1m(2) column of soil varied according to the height of the bluff, ranging from 30 to 662kg, with a mean value of 183kg. Forty-four per cent of the SOC was within the top 1m of soil and values varied based on surficial materials, ranging from 30 to 53kg C/m(3), with a mean of 41kg. Eighty per cent of the shoreline was erosive with a mean annual rate of change of -0.7m/yr. This resulted in a SOC flux per meter of shoreline of 132kg C/m/yr, and a total flux for the entire 282km of the Yukon coast of 35.5 x 10(6) kg C/yr (0.036 Tg C/yr). The mean flux of sediment per meter of shoreline was 5.3 x 10(3) kg/m/yr, with a total flux of 1,832 x 10(6)kg/yr (1.832 Tg/yr). Sedimentation rates indicate that approximately 13% of the eroded carbon was sequestered in nearshore sediments, where the overwhelming majority of organic carbon was of terrestrial origin. Plain Language Summary The oceans help slow the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) because they absorb much of this greenhouse gas. However, if carbon from other sources is added to the oceans, it can affect their ability to absorb atmospheric CO2. Our study examines the organic carbon added to the Canadian Beaufort Sea from eroding permafrost along the Yukon coast, a region quite vulnerable to erosion. Understanding carbon cycling in this area is important because environmental changes in the Arctic such as longer open water seasons, rising sea levels, and warmer air, water and soil temperatures are likely to increase coastal erosion and, thus, carbon fluxes to the sea. We measured the carbon in different types of permafrost soils and applied corrections to account for the volume taken up by various types of ground ice. By determining how quickly the shoreline is eroding, we assessed how much organic carbon is being transferred to the ocean each year. Our results show that 36 x 10(6) kg of carbon is added annually from this section of the coast. If we extrapolate these results to other coastal areas along the Canadian Beaufort Sea, the flux of organic carbon is nearly 3 times what was previously thought.
Thermokarst lakes are prevalent in Arctic coastal lowland regions and sublake permafrost degradation and talik development contributes to greenhouse gas emissions by tapping the large permafrost carbon pool. Whereas lateral thermokarst lake expansion is readily apparent through remote sensing and shoreline measurements, sublake thawed sediment conditions and talik growth are difficult to measure. Here we combine transient electromagnetic surveys with thermal modeling, backed up by measured permafrost properties and radiocarbon ages, to reveal closed-talik geometry associated with a thermokarst lake in continuous permafrost. To improve access to talik geometry data, we conducted surveys along three transient electromagnetic transects perpendicular to lakeshores with different decadal-scale expansion rates of 0.16, 0.38, and 0.58m/year. We modeled thermal development of the talik using boundary conditions based on field data from the lake, surrounding permafrost and a borehole, independent of the transient electromagnetics. A talik depth of 91m was determined from analysis of the transient electromagnetic surveys. Using a lake initiation age of 1400years before present and available subsurface properties the results from thermal modeling of the lake center arrived at a best estimate talk depth of 80m, which is on the same order of magnitude as the results from the transient electromagnetic survey. Our approach has provided a noninvasive estimate of talik geometry suitable for comparable settings throughout circum-Arctic coastal lowland regions.
We explore the potential of spaceborne radar (SR) observations from the Ku-band precipitation radars onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites as a reference to quantify the ground radar (GR) reflectivity bias. To this end, the 3-D volume-matching algorithm proposed by Schwaller and Morris (2011) is implemented and applied to 5 years (2012–2016) of observations. We further extend the procedure by a framework to take into account the data quality of each ground radar bin. Through these methods, we are able to assign a quality index to each matching SR–GR volume, and thus compute the GR calibration bias as a quality-weighted average of reflectivity differences in any sample of matching GR–SR volumes. We exemplify the idea of quality-weighted averaging by using the beam blockage fraction as the basis of a quality index. As a result, we can increase the consistency of SR and GR observations, and thus the precision of calibration bias estimates. The remaining scatter between GR and SR reflectivity as well as the variability of bias estimates between overpass events indicate, however, that other error sources are not yet fully addressed. Still, our study provides a framework to introduce any other quality variables that are considered relevant in a specific context. The code that implements our analysis is based on the wradlib open-source software library, and is, together with the data, publicly available to monitor radar calibration or to scrutinize long series of archived radar data back to December 1997, when TRMM became operational.