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Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale
(2018)
Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
Necrotrophic as well as saprophytic small-spored Altemaria (A.) species are annually responsible for major losses of agricultural products, such as cereal crops, associated with the contamination of food and feedstuff with potential health-endangering Altemaria toxins. Knowledge of the metabolic capabilities of different species-groups to form mycotoxins is of importance for a reliable risk assessment. 93 Altemaria strains belonging to the four species groups Alternaria tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata, and A. infectoria were isolated from winter wheat kernels harvested from fields in Germany and Russia and incubated under equal conditions. Chemical analysis by means of an HPLC-MS/MS multi-Alternaria-toxin-method showed that 95% of all strains were able to form at least one of the targeted 17 non-host specific Altemaria toxins. Simultaneous production of up to 15 (modified) Altemaria toxins by members of the A. tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata species-groups and up to seven toxins by A. infectoria strains was demonstrated. Overall tenuazonic acid was the most extensively formed mycotoxin followed by alternariol and alternariol mono methylether, whereas altertoxin I was the most frequently detected toxin. Sulfoconjugated modifications of alternariol, alternariol mono methylether, altenuisol and altenuene were frequently determined. Unknown perylene quinone derivatives were additionally detected. Strains of the species-group A. infectoria could be segregated from strains of the other three species-groups due to significantly lower toxin levels and the specific production of infectopyrone. Apart from infectopyrone, alterperylenol was also frequently produced by 95% of the A. infectoria strains. Neither by the concentration nor by the composition of the targeted Altemaria toxins a differentiation between the species-groups A. altemata, A. tenuissima and A. arborescens was possible.
Cell-free protein synthesis as a novel tool for directed glycoengineering of active erythropoietin
(2018)
As one of the most complex post-translational modification, glycosylation is widely involved in cell adhesion, cell proliferation and immune response. Nevertheless glycoproteins with an identical polypeptide backbone mostly differ in their glycosylation patterns. Due to this heterogeneity, the mapping of different glycosylation patterns to their associated function is nearly impossible. In the last years, glycoengineering tools including cell line engineering, chemoenzymatic remodeling and site-specific glycosylation have attracted increasing interest. The therapeutic hormone erythropoietin (EPO) has been investigated in particular by various groups to establish a production process resulting in a defined glycosylation pattern. However commercially available recombinant human EPO shows batch-to-batch variations in its glycoforms. Therefore we present an alternative method for the synthesis of active glycosylated EPO with an engineered O-glycosylation site by combining eukaryotic cell-free protein synthesis and site-directed incorporation of non-canonical amino acids with subsequent chemoselective modifications.
X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) and table-top sources of x-rays based upon high harmonic generation (HHG) have revolutionized the field of ultrafast x-ray atomic and molecular physics, largely due to an explosive growth in capabilities in the past decade. XFELs now provide unprecedented intensity (1020 W cm−2) of x-rays at wavelengths down to ~1 Ångstrom, and HHG provides unprecedented time resolution (~50 attoseconds) and a correspondingly large coherent bandwidth at longer wavelengths. For context, timescales can be referenced to the Bohr orbital period in hydrogen atom of 150 attoseconds and the hydrogen-molecule vibrational period of 8 femtoseconds; wavelength scales can be referenced to the chemically significant carbon K-edge at a photon energy of ~280 eV (44 Ångstroms) and the bond length in methane of ~1 Ångstrom. With these modern x-ray sources one now has the ability to focus on individual atoms, even when embedded in a complex molecule, and view electronic and nuclear motion on their intrinsic scales (attoseconds and Ångstroms). These sources have enabled coherent diffractive imaging, where one can image non-crystalline objects in three dimensions on ultrafast timescales, potentially with atomic resolution. The unprecedented intensity available with XFELs has opened new fields of multiphoton and nonlinear x-ray physics where behavior of matter under extreme conditions can be explored. The unprecedented time resolution and pulse synchronization provided by HHG sources has kindled fundamental investigations of time delays in photoionization, charge migration in molecules, and dynamics near conical intersections that are foundational to AMO physics and chemistry. This roadmap coincides with the year when three new XFEL facilities, operating at Ångstrom wavelengths, opened for users (European XFEL, Swiss-FEL and PAL-FEL in Korea) almost doubling the present worldwide number of XFELs, and documents the remarkable progress in HHG capabilities since its discovery roughly 30 years ago, showcasing experiments in AMO physics and other applications. Here we capture the perspectives of 17 leading groups and organize the contributions into four categories: ultrafast molecular dynamics, multidimensional x-ray spectroscopies; high-intensity x-ray phenomena; attosecond x-ray science.
By using 3-year global positioning system (GPS)measurements from December 2013 to November 2016, we provide in this study a detailed survey on the climatology of the GPS signal loss of Swarm onboard receivers. Our results show that the GPS signal losses prefer to occur at both low latitudes between ±5 and ±20 ◦ magnetic latitude (MLAT) and high latitudes above 60 ◦ MLAT in both hemispheres. These events at all latitudes are observed mainly during equinoxes and December solstice months, while totally absent during June solstice months. At low latitudes the GPS signal losses are caused by the equatorial plasma irregularities shortly after sunset, and at high latitude they are also highly related to the large density gradients associated with ionospheric irregularities. Additionally, the high-latitude events are more often observed in the Southern Hemisphere, occurring mainly at the cusp region and along nightside auroral latitudes. The signal losses mainly happen for those GPS rays with elevation angles less than 20 ◦ , and more commonly occur when the line of sight between GPS and Swarm satellites is aligned with the shell structure of plasma irregularities. Our results also confirm that the capability of the Swarm receiver has been improved after the bandwidth of the phase-locked loop (PLL) widened, but the updates cannot radically avoid the interruption in tracking GPS satellites caused by the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Additionally, after the PLL bandwidth increased larger than 0.5 Hz, some unexpected signal losses are observed even at middle latitudes, which are not related to the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Our results suggest that rather than 1.0 Hz, a PLL bandwidth of 0.5 Hz is a more suitable value for the Swarm receiver.
German football stadiums are well known for their atmosphere. It is often described as ‘electrifying,’ or ‘cracking.’ This article focuses on this atmosphere. Using a phenomenological approach, it explores how this emotionality can be understood and how geography matters while attending a match. Atmosphere in this context is conceptualized based on work by as a mood-charged space, neither object- nor subject-centered, but rather a medium of perception which cannot not exist. Based on qualitative research done in the home stadium of Hertha BSC in the German Bundesliga, this article shows that the bodily sensations experienced by spectators during a visit to the stadium are synchronized with events on the pitch and with the more or less imposing scenery. The analysis of in situ diaries reveals that spectators experience a comprehensive sense of collectivity. The study presents evidence that the occurrence of these bodily sensations is strongly connected with different aspects of spatiality. This includes sensations of constriction and expansion within the body, an awareness of one’s location within the stadium, the influence of the immediate surroundings and cognitive here/there and inside/outside distinctions.
Hyenas (family Hyaenidae), as the sister group to cats (family Felidae), represent a deeply diverging branch within the cat-like carnivores (Feliformia). With an estimated population size of <10,000 individuals worldwide, the brown hyena (Parahyaena brunnea) represents the rarest of the four extant hyena species and has been listed as Near Threatened by the IUCN. Here, we report a high-coverage genome from a captive bred brown hyena and both mitochondrial and low-coverage nuclear genomes of 14 wild-caught brown hyena individuals from across southern Africa. We find that brown hyena harbor extremely low genetic diversity on both the mitochondrial and nuclear level, most likely resulting from a continuous and ongoing decline in effective population size that started similar to 1 Ma and dramatically accelerated towards the end of the Pleistocene. Despite the strikingly low genetic diversity, we find no evidence of inbreeding within the captive bred individual and reveal phylogeographic structure, suggesting the existence of several potential subpopulations within the species.
Background/Aims: Angiogenesis plays a key role during embryonic development. The vascular endothelin (ET) system is involved in the regulation of angiogenesis. Lipopolysaccharides (LPS) could induce angiogenesis. The effects of ET blockers on baseline and LPS-stimulated angiogenesis during embryonic development remain unknown so far. Methods: The blood vessel density (BVD) of chorioallantoic membranes (CAMs), which were treated with saline (control), LPS, and/or BQ123 and the ETB blocker BQ788, were quantified and analyzed using an IPP 6.0 image analysis program. Moreover, the expressions of ET-1, ET-2, ET3, ET receptor A (ETRA), ET receptor B (ETRB) and VEGFR2 mRNA during embryogenesis were analyzed by semi-quantitative RT-PCR. Results: All components of the ET system are detectable during chicken embryogenesis. LPS increased angiogenesis substantially. This process was completely blocked by the treatment of a combination of the ETA receptor blockers-BQ123 and the ETB receptor blocker BQ788. This effect was accompanied by a decrease in ETRA, ETRB, and VEGFR2 gene expression. However, the baseline angiogenesis was not affected by combined ETA/ETB receptor blockade. Conclusion: During chicken embryogenesis, the LPS-stimulated angiogenesis, but not baseline angiogenesis, is sensitive to combined ETA/ETB receptor blockade. (C) 2018 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel
This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of −5 to −17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.
ShapeRotator
(2018)
The quantification of complex morphological patterns typically involves comprehensive shape and size analyses, usually obtained by gathering morphological data from all the structures that capture the phenotypic diversity of an organism or object. Articulated structures are a critical component of overall phenotypic diversity, but data gathered from these structures are difficult to incorporate into modern analyses because of the complexities associated with jointly quantifying 3D shape in multiple structures. While there are existing methods for analyzing shape variation in articulated structures in two-dimensional (2D) space, these methods do not work in 3D, a rapidly growing area of capability and research. Here, we describe a simple geometric rigid rotation approach that removes the effect of random translation and rotation, enabling the morphological analysis of 3D articulated structures. Our method is based on Cartesian coordinates in 3D space, so it can be applied to any morphometric problem that also uses 3D coordinates (e.g., spherical harmonics). We demonstrate the method by applying it to a landmark-based dataset for analyzing shape variation using geometric morphometrics. We have developed an R tool (ShapeRotator) so that the method can be easily implemented in the commonly used R package geomorph and MorphoJ software. This method will be a valuable tool for 3D morphological analyses in articulated structures by allowing an exhaustive examination of shape and size diversity.
Reversed predator
(2018)
Ecoevolutionary feedbacks in predator–prey systems have been shown to qualitatively alter predator–prey dynamics. As a striking example, defense–offense coevolution can reverse predator–prey cycles, so predator peaks precede prey peaks rather than vice versa. However, this has only rarely been shown in either model studies or empirical systems. Here, we investigate whether this rarity is a fundamental feature of reversed cycles by exploring under which conditions they should be found. For this, we first identify potential conditions and parameter ranges most likely to result in reversed cycles by developing a new measure, the effective prey biomass, which combines prey biomass with prey and predator traits, and represents the prey biomass as perceived by the predator. We show that predator dynamics always follow the dynamics of the effective prey biomass with a classic ¼‐phase lag. From this key insight, it follows that in reversed cycles (i.e., ¾‐lag), the dynamics of the actual and the effective prey biomass must be in antiphase with each other, that is, the effective prey biomass must be highest when actual prey biomass is lowest, and vice versa. Based on this, we predict that reversed cycles should be found mainly when oscillations in actual prey biomass are small and thus have limited impact on the dynamics of the effective prey biomass, which are mainly driven by trait changes. We then confirm this prediction using numerical simulations of a coevolutionary predator–prey system, varying the amplitude of the oscillations in prey biomass: Reversed cycles are consistently associated with regions of parameter space leading to small‐amplitude prey oscillations, offering a specific and highly testable prediction for conditions under which reversed cycles should occur in natural systems.
Reversed predator
(2018)
Ecoevolutionary feedbacks in predator–prey systems have been shown to qualitatively alter predator–prey dynamics. As a striking example, defense–offense coevolution can reverse predator–prey cycles, so predator peaks precede prey peaks rather than vice versa. However, this has only rarely been shown in either model studies or empirical systems. Here, we investigate whether this rarity is a fundamental feature of reversed cycles by exploring under which conditions they should be found. For this, we first identify potential conditions and parameter ranges most likely to result in reversed cycles by developing a new measure, the effective prey biomass, which combines prey biomass with prey and predator traits, and represents the prey biomass as perceived by the predator. We show that predator dynamics always follow the dynamics of the effective prey biomass with a classic ¼‐phase lag. From this key insight, it follows that in reversed cycles (i.e., ¾‐lag), the dynamics of the actual and the effective prey biomass must be in antiphase with each other, that is, the effective prey biomass must be highest when actual prey biomass is lowest, and vice versa. Based on this, we predict that reversed cycles should be found mainly when oscillations in actual prey biomass are small and thus have limited impact on the dynamics of the effective prey biomass, which are mainly driven by trait changes. We then confirm this prediction using numerical simulations of a coevolutionary predator–prey system, varying the amplitude of the oscillations in prey biomass: Reversed cycles are consistently associated with regions of parameter space leading to small‐amplitude prey oscillations, offering a specific and highly testable prediction for conditions under which reversed cycles should occur in natural systems.
Hot localised charge carriers on the Si(111)-7×7 surface are modelled by small charged clusters. Such resonances induce non-local desorption, i.e. more than 10 nm away from the injection site, of chlorobenzene in scanning tunnelling microscope experiments. We used such a cluster model to characterise resonance localisation and vibrational activation for positive and negative resonances recently. In this work, we investigate to which extent the model depends on details of the used cluster or quantum chemistry methods and try to identify the smallest possible cluster suitable for a description of the neutral surface and the ion resonances. Furthermore, a detailed analysis for different chemisorption orientations is performed. While some properties, as estimates of the resonance energy or absolute values for atomic changes, show such a dependency, the main findings are very robust with respect to changes in the model and/or the chemisorption geometry.
Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.
Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.
In two-dimensional reaction-diffusion systems, local curvature perturbations on traveling waves are typically damped out and vanish. However, if the inhibitor diffuses much faster than the activator, transversal instabilities can arise, leading from flat to folded, spatio-temporally modulated waves and to spreading spiral turbulence. Here, we propose a scheme to induce or inhibit these instabilities via a spatio-temporal feedback loop. In a piecewise-linear version of the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, transversal instabilities and spiral turbulence in the uncontrolled system are shown to be suppressed in the presence of control, thereby stabilizing plane wave propagation. Conversely, in numerical simulations with the modified Oregonator model for the photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, which does not exhibit transversal instabilities on its own, we demonstrate the feasibility of inducing transversal instabilities and study the emerging wave patterns in a well-controlled manner.
Hazards and accessibility
(2018)
The assessment of natural hazards and risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of threat maps, which are used to depict potential danger posed by a particular hazard throughout a given area. But when a hazard event strikes, infrastructure is a significant factor that can determine if the situation becomes a disaster. The vulnerability of the population in a region does not only depend on the area’s local threat, but also on the geographical accessibility of
the area. This makes threat maps by themselves insufficient for supporting real-time decision-making, especially for those tasks that involve the use of the road network, such as management of relief operations, aid distribution, or planning of evacuation routes, among others. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach divided in two parts. First, data fusion of satellite-based threat data and open infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, introducing a threat-based routing service. Second, the visualization of this data through cartographic generalization and schematization. This emphasizes critical areas along roads in a simple way and allows users to visually evaluate the impact natural hazards may have on infrastructure. We develop and illustrate this methodology with a case study of landslide threat for an area in Colombia.
Objective: Several different measures of heart rate variability, and particularly of respiratory sinus arrhythmia, are widely used in research and clinical applications. For many purposes it is important to know which features of heart rate variability are directly related to respiration and which are caused by other aspects of cardiac dynamics. Approach: Inspired by ideas from the theory of coupled oscillators, we use simultaneous measurements of respiratory and cardiac activity to perform a nonlinear disentanglement of the heart rate variability into the respiratory-related component and the rest. Main results: The theoretical consideration is illustrated by the analysis of 25 data sets from healthy subjects. In all cases we show how the disentanglement is manifested in the different measures of heart rate variability. Significance: The suggested technique can be exploited as a universal preprocessing tool, both for the analysis of respiratory influence on the heart rate and in cases when effects of other factors on the heart rate variability are in focus.
Objective: Several different measures of heart rate variability, and particularly of respiratory sinus arrhythmia, are widely used in research and clinical applications. For many purposes it is important to know which features of heart rate variability are directly related to respiration and which are caused by other aspects of cardiac dynamics. Approach: Inspired by ideas from the theory of coupled oscillators, we use simultaneous measurements of respiratory and cardiac activity to perform a nonlinear disentanglement of the heart rate variability into the respiratory-related component and the rest. Main results: The theoretical consideration is illustrated by the analysis of 25 data sets from healthy subjects. In all cases we show how the disentanglement is manifested in the different measures of heart rate variability. Significance: The suggested technique can be exploited as a universal preprocessing tool, both for the analysis of respiratory influence on the heart rate and in cases when effects of other factors on the heart rate variability are in focus.
Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, fresh-water quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), in Brazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) and sediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to 1037 km(2). These head-waters were eligible areas of the Brazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in the Cantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to 9 million people in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We considered SWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario (S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-use scenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010-2015 with field validation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES (S2 + EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest cover restoration through EbA following the river basin plan by 2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected record of rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006-2014, with the occurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, we proposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new composite metric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for reference catchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and water yield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for the regionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULC scenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areas as less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand, conservation practices simulated through the S2 + EbA scenario envisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP), but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of water supply systems.
Losses due to floods have dramatically increased over the past decades, and losses of companies, comprising direct and indirect losses, have a large share of the total economic losses. Thus, there is an urgent need to gain more quantitative knowledge about flood losses, particularly losses caused by business interruption, in order to mitigate the economic loss of companies. However, business interruption caused by floods is rarely assessed because of a lack of sufficiently detailed data. A survey was undertaken to explore processes influencing business interruption, which collected information on 557 companies affected by the severe flood in June 2013 in Germany. Based on this data set, the study aims to assess the business interruption of directly affected companies by means of a Random Forests model. Variables that influence the duration and costs of business interruption were identified by the variable importance measures of Random Forests. Additionally, Random Forest-based models were developed and tested for their capacity to estimate business interruption duration and associated costs. The water level was found to be the most important variable influencing the duration of business interruption. Other important variables, relating to the estimation of business interruption duration, are the warning time, perceived danger of flood recurrence and inundation duration. In contrast, the amount of business interruption costs is strongly influenced by the size of the company, as assessed by the number of employees, emergency measures undertaken by the company and the fraction of customers within a 50 km radius. These results provide useful information and methods for companies to mitigate their losses from business interruption. However, the heterogeneity of companies is relatively high, and sector-specific analyses were not possible due to the small sample size. Therefore, further sector-specific analyses on the basis of more flood loss data of companies are recommended.
Losses due to floods have dramatically increased over the past decades, and losses of companies, comprising direct and indirect losses, have a large share of the total economic losses. Thus, there is an urgent need to gain more quantitative knowledge about flood losses, particularly losses caused by business interruption, in order to mitigate the economic loss of companies. However, business interruption caused by floods is rarely assessed because of a lack of sufficiently detailed data. A survey was undertaken to explore processes influencing business interruption, which collected information on 557 companies affected by the severe flood in June 2013 in Germany. Based on this data set, the study aims to assess the business interruption of directly affected companies by means of a Random Forests model. Variables that influence the duration and costs of business interruption were identified by the variable importance measures of Random Forests. Additionally, Random Forest-based models were developed and tested for their capacity to estimate business interruption duration and associated costs. The water level was found to be the most important variable influencing the duration of business interruption. Other important variables, relating to the estimation of business interruption duration, are the warning time, perceived danger of flood recurrence and inundation duration. In contrast, the amount of business interruption costs is strongly influenced by the size of the company, as assessed by the number of employees, emergency measures undertaken by the company and the fraction of customers within a 50 km radius. These results provide useful information and methods for companies to mitigate their losses from business interruption. However, the heterogeneity of companies is relatively high, and sector-specific analyses were not possible due to the small sample size. Therefore, further sector-specific analyses on the basis of more flood loss data of companies are recommended.
Primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) shows a highly variable disease progression with poor prognosis and a characteristic accumulation of disabilities in patients. These hallmarks of PPMS make it difficult to diagnose and currently impossible to efficiently treat. This study aimed to identify plasma metabolite profiles that allow diagnosis of PPMS and its differentiation from the relapsing remitting subtype (RRMS), primary neurodegenerative disease (Parkinson’s disease, PD), and healthy controls (HCs) and that significantly change during the disease course and could serve as surrogate markers of multiple sclerosis (MS)-associated neurodegeneration over time. We applied untargeted high-resolution metabolomics to plasma samples to identify PPMS-specific signatures, validated our findings in independent sex- and age-matched PPMS and HC cohorts and built discriminatory models by partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). This signature was compared to sex- and age-matched RRMS patients, to patients with PD and HC. Finally, we investigated these metabolites in a longitudinal cohort of PPMS patients over a 24-month period. PLS-DA yielded predictive models for classification along with a set of 20 PPMS-specific informative metabolite markers. These metabolites suggest disease-specific alterations in glycerophospholipid and linoleic acid pathways. Notably, the glycerophospholipid LysoPC(20:0) significantly decreased during the observation period. These findings show potential for diagnosis and disease course monitoring, and might serve as biomarkers to assess treatment efficacy in future clinical trials for neuroprotective MS therapies.
Primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) shows a highly variable disease progression with poor prognosis and a characteristic accumulation of disabilities in patients. These hallmarks of PPMS make it difficult to diagnose and currently impossible to efficiently treat. This study aimed to identify plasma metabolite profiles that allow diagnosis of PPMS and its differentiation from the relapsing remitting subtype (RRMS), primary neurodegenerative disease (Parkinson’s disease, PD), and healthy controls (HCs) and that significantly change during the disease course and could serve as surrogate markers of multiple sclerosis (MS)-associated neurodegeneration over time. We applied untargeted high-resolution metabolomics to plasma samples to identify PPMS-specific signatures, validated our findings in independent sex- and age-matched PPMS and HC cohorts and built discriminatory models by partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). This signature was compared to sex- and age-matched RRMS patients, to patients with PD and HC. Finally, we investigated these metabolites in a longitudinal cohort of PPMS patients over a 24-month period. PLS-DA yielded predictive models for classification along with a set of 20 PPMS-specific informative metabolite markers. These metabolites suggest disease-specific alterations in glycerophospholipid and linoleic acid pathways. Notably, the glycerophospholipid LysoPC(20:0) significantly decreased during the observation period. These findings show potential for diagnosis and disease course monitoring, and might serve as biomarkers to assess treatment efficacy in future clinical trials for neuroprotective MS therapies.
TerraSAR-X time series fill a gap in spaceborne snowmelt monitoring of small arctic catchments
(2018)
The timing of snowmelt is an important turning point in the seasonal cycle of small Arctic catchments. The TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite mission is a synthetic aperture radar system (SAR) with high potential to measure the high spatiotemporal variability of snow cover extent (SCE) and fractional snow cover (FSC) on the small catchment scale. We investigate the performance of multi-polarized and multi-pass TSX X-Band SAR data in monitoring SCE and FSC in small Arctic tundra catchments of Qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island) off the Yukon Coast in the Western Canadian Arctic. We applied a threshold based segmentation on ratio images between TSX images with wet snow and a dry snow reference, and tested the performance of two different thresholds. We quantitatively compared TSX- and Landsat 8-derived SCE maps using confusion matrices and analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of snowmelt from 2015 to 2017 using TSX, Landsat 8 and in situ time lapse data. Our data showed that the quality of SCE maps from TSX X-Band data is strongly influenced by polarization and to a lesser degree by incidence angle. VH polarized TSX data performed best in deriving SCE when compared to Landsat 8. TSX derived SCE maps from VH polarization detected late lying snow patches that were not detected by Landsat 8. Results of a local assessment of TSX FSC against the in situ data showed that TSX FSC accurately captured the temporal dynamics of different snow melt regimes that were related to topographic characteristics of the studied catchments. Both in situ and TSX FSC showed a longer snowmelt period in a catchment with higher contributions of steep valleys and a shorter snowmelt period in a catchment with higher contributions of upland terrain. Landsat 8 had fundamental data gaps during the snowmelt period in all 3 years due to cloud cover. The results also revealed that by choosing a positive threshold of 1 dB, detection of ice layers due to diurnal temperature variations resulted in a more accurate estimation of snow cover than a negative threshold that detects wet snow alone. We find that TSX X-Band data in VH polarization performs at a comparable quality to Landsat 8 in deriving SCE maps when a positive threshold is used. We conclude that TSX data polarization can be used to accurately monitor snowmelt events at high temporal and spatial resolution, overcoming limitations of Landsat 8, which due to cloud related data gaps generally only indicated the onset and end of snowmelt.
TerraSAR-X time series fill a gap in spaceborne snowmelt monitoring of small Arctic catchments
(2018)
The timing of snowmelt is an important turning point in the seasonal cycle of small Arctic catchments. The TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite mission is a synthetic aperture radar system (SAR) with high potential to measure the high spatiotemporal variability of snow cover extent (SCE) and fractional snow cover (FSC) on the small catchment scale. We investigate the performance of multi-polarized and multi-pass TSX X-Band SAR data in monitoring SCE and FSC in small Arctic tundra catchments of Qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island) off the Yukon Coast in the Western Canadian Arctic. We applied a threshold based segmentation on ratio images between TSX images with wet snow and a dry snow reference, and tested the performance of two different thresholds. We quantitatively compared TSX- and Landsat 8-derived SCE maps using confusion matrices and analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of snowmelt from 2015 to 2017 using TSX, Landsat 8 and in situ time lapse data. Our data showed that the quality of SCE maps from TSX X-Band data is strongly influenced by polarization and to a lesser degree by incidence angle. VH polarized TSX data performed best in deriving SCE when compared to Landsat 8. TSX derived SCE maps from VH polarization detected late lying snow patches that were not detected by Landsat 8. Results of a local assessment of TSX FSC against the in situ data showed that TSX FSC accurately captured the temporal dynamics of different snow melt regimes that were related to topographic characteristics of the studied catchments. Both in situ and TSX FSC showed a longer snowmelt period in a catchment with higher contributions of steep valleys and a shorter snowmelt period in a catchment with higher contributions of upland terrain. Landsat 8 had fundamental data gaps during the snowmelt period in all 3 years due to cloud cover. The results also revealed that by choosing a positive threshold of 1 dB, detection of ice layers due to diurnal temperature variations resulted in a more accurate estimation of snow cover than a negative threshold that detects wet snow alone. We find that TSX X-Band data in VH polarization performs at a comparable quality to Landsat 8 in deriving SCE maps when a positive threshold is used. We conclude that TSX data polarization can be used to accurately monitor snowmelt events at high temporal and spatial resolution, overcoming limitations of Landsat 8, which due to cloud related data gaps generally only indicated the onset and end of snowmelt.
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of the most important food crops worldwide. Current potato varieties are highly susceptible to drought stress. In view of global climate change, selection of cultivars with improved drought tolerance and high yield potential is of paramount importance. Drought tolerance breeding of potato is currently based on direct selection according to yield and phenotypic traits and requires multiple trials under drought conditions. Marker‐assisted selection (MAS) is cheaper, faster and reduces classification errors caused by noncontrolled environmental effects. We analysed 31 potato cultivars grown under optimal and reduced water supply in six independent field trials. Drought tolerance was determined as tuber starch yield. Leaf samples from young plants were screened for preselected transcript and nontargeted metabolite abundance using qRT‐PCR and GC‐MS profiling, respectively. Transcript marker candidates were selected from a published RNA‐Seq data set. A Random Forest machine learning approach extracted metabolite and transcript markers for drought tolerance prediction with low error rates of 6% and 9%, respectively. Moreover, by combining transcript and metabolite markers, the prediction error was reduced to 4.3%. Feature selection from Random Forest models allowed model minimization, yielding a minimal combination of only 20 metabolite and transcript markers that were successfully tested for their reproducibility in 16 independent agronomic field trials. We demonstrate that a minimum combination of transcript and metabolite markers sampled at early cultivation stages predicts potato yield stability under drought largely independent of seasonal and regional agronomic conditions.
Understanding of wave environments is critical for the understanding of how particles are accelerated and lost in space. This study shows that in the vicinity of Europa and Ganymede, that respectively have induced and internal magnetic fields, chorus wave power is significantly increased. The observed enhancements are persistent and exceed median values of wave activity by up to 6 orders of magnitude for Ganymede. Produced waves may have a pronounced effect on the acceleration and loss of particles in the Jovian magnetosphere and other astrophysical objects. The generated waves are capable of significantly modifying the energetic particle environment, accelerating particles to very high energies, or producing depletions in phase space density. Observations of Jupiter's magnetosphere provide a unique opportunity to observe how objects with an internal magnetic field can interact with particles trapped in magnetic fields of larger scale objects.
Admixture is the hybridization between populations within one species. It can increase plant fitness and population viability by alleviating inbreeding depression and increasing genetic diversity. However, populations are often adapted to their local environments and admixture with distant populations could break down local adaptation by diluting the locally adapted genomes. Thus, admixed genotypes might be selected against and be outcompeted by locally adapted genotypes in the local environments. To investigate the costs and benefits of admixture, we compared the performance of admixed and within-population F1 and F2 generations of the European plant Lythrum salicaria in a reciprocal transplant experiment at three European field sites over a 2-year period. Despite strong differences between site and plant populations for most of the measured traits, including herbivory, we found limited evidence for local adaptation. The effects of admixture depended on experimental site and plant population, and were positive for some traits. Plant growth and fruit production of some populations increased in admixed offspring and this was strongest with larger parental distances. These effects were only detected in two of our three sites. Our results show that, in the absence of local adaptation, admixture may boost plant performance, and that this is particularly apparent in stressful environments. We suggest that admixture between foreign and local genotypes can potentially be considered in nature conservation to restore populations and/or increase population viability, especially in small inbred or maladapted populations.
Background: Flooding during seasonal monsoons affects millions of hectares of rice-cultivated areas across Asia. Submerged rice plants die within a week due to lack of oxygen, light and excessive elongation growth to escape the water. Submergence tolerance was first reported in an aus-type rice landrace, FR13A, and the ethylene-responsive transcription factor (TF) gene SUB1A-1 was identified as the major tolerance gene. Intolerant rice varieties generally lack
the SUB1A gene but some intermediate tolerant varieties, such as IR64, carry the allelic variant SUB1A-2. Differential effects of the two alleles have so far not been addressed. As a first step, we have therefore quantified and compared the expression of nearly 2500 rice TF genes between IR64 and its derived tolerant near isogenic line IR64-Sub1, which carries the SUB1A-1 allele. Gene expression was studied in internodes, where the main difference in expression between
the two alleles was previously shown.
Results: Nineteen and twenty-six TF genes were identified that responded to submergence in IR64 and IR64-Sub1,
respectively. Only one gene was found to be submergence-responsive in both, suggesting different regulatory pathways under submergence in the two genotypes. These differentially expressed genes (DEGs) mainly included MYB, NAC, TIFY and Zn-finger TFs, and most genes were downregulated upon submergence. In IR64, but not in IR64-Sub1,
SUB1B and SUB1C, which are also present in the Sub1 locus, were identified as submergence responsive. Four TFs were not submergence responsive but exhibited constitutive, genotype-specific differential expression. Most of the identified submergence responsive DEGs are associated with regulatory hormonal pathways, i.e. gibberellins (GA), abscisic acid (ABA), and jasmonic acid (JA), apart from ethylene. An in-silico promoter analysis of the two genotypes revealed the
presence of allele-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms, giving rise to ABRE, DRE/CRT, CARE and Site II cis-elements, which can partly explain the observed differential TF gene expression.
Conclusion: This study identified new gene targets with the potential to further enhance submergence tolerance in rice and provides insights into novel aspects of SUB1A-mediated tolerance.
We provide a detailed stochastic description of the swimming motion of an E. coli bacterium in two dimension, where we resolve tumble events in time. For this purpose, we set up two Langevin equations for the orientation angle and speed dynamics. Calculating moments, distribution and autocorrelation functions from both Langevin equations and matching them to the same quantities determined from data recorded in experiments, we infer the swimming parameters of E. coli. They are the tumble rate lambda, the tumble time r(-1), the swimming speed v(0), the strength of speed fluctuations sigma, the relative height of speed jumps eta, the thermal value for the rotational diffusion coefficient D-0, and the enhanced rotational diffusivity during tumbling D-T. Conditioning the observables on the swimming direction relative to the gradient of a chemoattractant, we infer the chemotaxis strategies of E. coli. We confirm the classical strategy of a lower tumble rate for swimming up the gradient but also a smaller mean tumble angle (angle bias). The latter is realized by shorter tumbles as well as a slower diffusive reorientation. We also find that speed fluctuations are increased by about 30% when swimming up the gradient compared to the reversed direction.
The lateral and vertical temperature distribution in Oman is so far only poorly understood, particularly in the area between Muscat and the Batinah coast, which is the area of this study and which is composed of Cenozoic sediments developed as part of a foreland basin of the Makran Thrust Zone. Temperature logs (T-logs) were run and physical rock properties of the sediments were analyzed to understand the temperature distribution, thermal and hydraulic properties, and heat-transport processes within the sedimentary cover of northern Oman. An advective component is evident in the otherwise conduction-dominated geothermal play system, and is caused by both topography and density driven flow. Calculated temperature gradients (T-gradients) in two wells that represent conductive conditions are 18.7 and 19.5 degrees C km(-1), corresponding to about 70-90 degrees C at 2000-3000 m depth. This indicates a geothermal potential that can be used for energy intensive applications like cooling or water desalinization. Sedimentation in the foreland basin was initiated after the obduction of the Semail Ophiolite in the late Campanian, and reflects the complex history of alternating periods of transgressive and regressive sequences with erosion of the Oman Mountains. Thermal and hydraulic parameters were analyzed of the basin's heterogeneous clastic and carbonate sedimentary sequence. Surface heat-flow values of 46.4 and 47.9 mW m(-2) were calculated from the T-logs and calculated thermal conductivity values in two wells. The results of this study serve as a starting point for assessing different geothermal applications that may be suitable for northern Oman.
Ecological and physiological factors lead to different contamination patterns in individual marine mammals. The objective of the present study was to assess whether variations in contamination profiles are indicative of social structures of young male sperm whales as they might reflect a variation in feeding preferences and/or in utilized feeding grounds. We used a total of 61 variables associated with organic compounds and trace element concentrations measured in muscle, liver, kidney and blubber gained from 24 sperm whales that stranded in the North Sea in January and February 2016. Combining contaminant and genetic data, there is evidence for at least two cohorts with different origin among these stranded sperm whales; one from the Canary Island region and one from the northern part of the Atlantic. While genetic data unravel relatedness and kinship, contamination data integrate over areas, where animals occured during their lifetime. Especially in long-lived animals with a large migratory potential, as sperm whales, contamination data may carry highly relevant information about aggregation through time and space.
Ecological and physiological factors lead to different contamination patterns in individual marine mammals. The objective of the present study was to assess whether variations in contamination profiles are indicative of social structures of young male sperm whales as they might reflect a variation in feeding preferences and/or in utilized feeding grounds. We used a total of 61 variables associated with organic compounds and trace element concentrations measured in muscle, liver, kidney and blubber gained from 24 sperm whales that stranded in the North Sea in January and February 2016. Combining contaminant and genetic data, there is evidence for at least two cohorts with different origin among these stranded sperm whales; one from the Canary Island region and one from the northern part of the Atlantic. While genetic data unravel relatedness and kinship, contamination data integrate over areas, where animals occured during their lifetime. Especially in long-lived animals with a large migratory potential, as sperm whales, contamination data may carry highly relevant information about aggregation through time and space.
Background: Compulsive exercise (CE) is a frequent symptom in patients with eating disorders (EDs). It includes, in addition to quantitatively excessive exercise behaviour, a driven aspect and specific motives of exercise. CE is generally associated with worse therapy outcomes. The aims of the study were to compare self-reported quantity of exercise, compulsiveness of exercise as well as motives for exercise between patients with anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN) and healthy controls (HC). Additionally, we wanted to explore predictors of compulsive exercise (CE) in each group. Methods: We investigated 335 female participants (n = 226 inpatients, n = 109 HC) and assessed self-reported quantity of exercise, compulsiveness of exercise (Compulsive Exercise Test), motives for exercise (Exercise Motivations Inventory-2), ED symptoms (Eating Disorder Inventory-2), obsessive-compulsiveness (Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory-Revised), general psychopathology (Brief Symptom Inventory-18) and depression (Beck Depression Inventory-2). Results: Both patients with AN and BN exercised significantly more hours per week and showed significantly higher CE than HC; no differences were found between patients with AN and BN. Patients with EDs and HC also partly varied in motives for exercise. Specific motives were enjoyment, challenge, recognition and weight management in patients with EDs in contrast to ill-health avoidance and affiliation in HC. Patients with AN and BN only differed in regard to exercise for appearance reasons in which patients with BN scored higher. The most relevant predictor of CE across groups was exercise for weight and shape reasons. Conclusions: Exercise behaviours and motives differ between patients with EDs and HC. CE was pronounced in both patients with AN and BN. Therefore, future research should focus not only on CE in patients with AN, but also on CE in patients with BN. Similarities in CE in patients with AN and BN support a transdiagnostic approach during the development of interventions specifically targeting CE in patients with EDs.
Background: Compulsive exercise (CE) is a frequent symptom in patients with eating disorders (EDs). It includes, in addition to quantitatively excessive exercise behaviour, a driven aspect and specific motives of exercise. CE is generally associated with worse therapy outcomes. The aims of the study were to compare self-reported quantity of exercise, compulsiveness of exercise as well as motives for exercise between patients with anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN) and healthy controls (HC). Additionally, we wanted to explore predictors of compulsive exercise (CE) in each group.
Methods: We investigated 335 female participants (n = 226 inpatients, n = 109 HC) and assessed self-reported quantity of exercise, compulsiveness of exercise (Compulsive Exercise Test), motives for exercise (Exercise Motivations Inventory-2), ED symptoms (Eating Disorder Inventory-2), obsessive-compulsiveness (Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory-Revised), general psychopathology (Brief Symptom Inventory-18) and depression (Beck Depression Inventory-2).
Results: Both patients with AN and BN exercised significantly more hours per week and showed significantly higher CE than HC; no differences were found between patients with AN and BN. Patients with EDs and HC also partly varied in motives for exercise. Specific motives were enjoyment, challenge, recognition and weight management in patients with EDs in contrast to ill-health avoidance and affiliation in HC. Patients with AN and BN only differed in regard to exercise for appearance reasons in which patients with BN scored higher. The most relevant predictor of CE across groups was exercise for weight and shape reasons.
Conclusions: Exercise behaviours and motives differ between patients with EDs and HC. CE was pronounced in both patients with AN and BN. Therefore, future research should focus not only on CE in patients with AN, but also on CE in patients with BN. Similarities in CE in patients with AN and BN support a transdiagnostic approach during the development of interventions specifically targeting CE in patients with EDs.
Ice-wedge polygons are common features of northeastern Siberian lowland periglacial tundra landscapes. To deduce the formation and alternation of ice-wedge polygons in the Kolyma Delta and in the Indigirka Lowland, we studied shallow cores, up to 1.3 m deep, from polygon center and rim locations. The formation of well-developed low-center polygons with elevated rims and wet centers is shown by the beginning of peat accumulation, increased organic matter contents, and changes in vegetation cover from Poaceae-, Alnus-, and Betula-dominated pollen spectra to dominating Cyperaceae and Botryoccocus presence, and Carex and Drepanocladus revolvens macro-fossils. Tecamoebae data support such a change from wetland to open-water conditions in polygon centers by changes from dominating eurybiontic and sphagnobiontic to hydrobiontic species assemblages. The peat accumulation indicates low-center polygon formation and started between 2380 +/- 30 and 1676 +/- 32 years before present (BP) in the Kolyma Delta. We recorded an opposite change from open-water to wetland conditions because of rim degradation and consecutive high-center polygon formation in the Indigirka Lowland between 2144 +/- 33 and 1632 +/- 32 years BP. The late Holocene records of polygon landscape development reveal changes in local hydrology and soil moisture.
Ice-wedge polygons are common features of northeastern Siberian lowland periglacial tundra landscapes. To deduce the formation and alternation of ice-wedge polygons in the Kolyma Delta and in the Indigirka Lowland, we studied shallow cores, up to 1.3 m deep, from polygon center and rim locations. The formation of well-developed low-center polygons with elevated rims and wet centers is shown by the beginning of peat accumulation, increased organic matter contents, and changes in vegetation cover from Poaceae-, Alnus-, and Betula-dominated pollen spectra to dominating Cyperaceae and Botryoccocus presence, and Carex and Drepanocladus revolvens macro-fossils. Tecamoebae data support such a change from wetland to open-water conditions in polygon centers by changes from dominating eurybiontic and sphagnobiontic to hydrobiontic species assemblages. The peat accumulation indicates low-center polygon formation and started between 2380 +/- 30 and 1676 +/- 32 years before present (BP) in the Kolyma Delta. We recorded an opposite change from open-water to wetland conditions because of rim degradation and consecutive high-center polygon formation in the Indigirka Lowland between 2144 +/- 33 and 1632 +/- 32 years BP. The late Holocene records of polygon landscape development reveal changes in local hydrology and soil moisture.
We present an optically addressed non-pixelated spatial light modulator. The system is based on reversible photoalignment of a LC cell using a red light sensitive novel azobenzene photoalignment layer. It is an electrode-free device that manipulates the liquid crystal orientation and consequently the polarization via light without artifacts caused by electrodes. The capability to miniaturize the spatial light modulator allows the integration into a microscope objective. This includes a miniaturized 200 channel optical addressing system based on a VCSEL array and hybrid refractive-diffractive beam shapers. As an application example, the utilization as a microscope objective integrated analog phase contrast modulator is shown. (C) 2018 Optical Society of America under the terms of the OSA Open Access Publishing Agreement
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
The nucleus of Hen 2-428 is a short orbital period (4.2 h) spectroscopic binary, whose status as potential supernovae type Ia progenitor has raised some controversy in the literature. We present preliminary results of a thorough analysis of this interesting system, which combines quantitative non-local thermodynamic (non-LTE) equilibrium spectral modelling, radial velocity analysis, multi-band light curve fitting, and state-of-the art stellar evolutionary calculations. Importantly, we find that the dynamical system mass that is derived by using all available He II lines does not exceed the Chandrasekhar mass limit. Furthermore, the individual masses of the two central stars are too small to lead to an SN Ia in case of a dynamical explosion during the merger process.
The nucleus of Hen 2-428 is a short orbital period (4.2 h) spectroscopic binary, whose status as potential supernovae type Ia progenitor has raised some controversy in the literature. We present preliminary results of a thorough analysis of this interesting system, which combines quantitative non-local thermodynamic (non-LTE) equilibrium spectral modelling, radial velocity analysis, multi-band light curve fitting, and state-of-the art stellar evolutionary calculations. Importantly, we find that the dynamical system mass that is derived by using all available He II lines does not exceed the Chandrasekhar mass limit. Furthermore, the individual masses of the two central stars are too small to lead to an SN Ia in case of a dynamical explosion during the merger process.
Background
Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level.
Results
We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data.
Conclusion
The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment.
Ultrafast heat transport in nanoscale metal multilayers is of great interest in the context of optically induced demagnetization, remagnetization and switching. If the penetration depth of light exceeds the bilayer thickness, layer-specific information is unavailable from optical probes. Femtosecond diffraction experiments provide unique experimental access to heat transport over single digit nanometer distances. Here, we investigate the structural response and the energy flow in the ultrathin double-layer system: gold on ferromagnetic nickel. Even though the excitation pulse is incident from the Au side, we observe a very rapid heating of the Ni lattice, whereas the Au lattice initially remains cold. The subsequent heat transfer from Ni to the Au lattice is found to be two orders of magnitude slower than predicted by the conventional heat equation and much slower than electron-phonon coupling times in Au. We present a simplified model calculation highlighting the relevant thermophysical quantities.
WRKY23 is a component of the transcriptional network mediating auxin feedback on PIN polarity
(2018)
Auxin is unique among plant hormones due to its directional transport that is mediated by the polarly distributed PIN auxin transporters at the plasma membrane. The canalization hypothesis proposes that the auxin feedback on its polar flow is a crucial, plant-specific mechanism mediating multiple self-organizing developmental processes. Here, we used the auxin effect on the PIN polar localization in Arabidopsis thaliana roots as a proxy for the auxin feedback on the PIN polarity during canalization. We performed microarray experiments to find regulators of this process that act downstream of auxin. We identified genes that were transcriptionally regulated by auxin in an AXR3/IAA17-and ARF7/ARF19-dependent manner. Besides the known components of the PIN polarity, such as PID and PIP5K kinases, a number of potential new regulators were detected, among which the WRKY23 transcription factor, which was characterized in more detail. Gain-and loss-of-function mutants confirmed a role for WRKY23 in mediating the auxin effect on the PIN polarity. Accordingly, processes requiring auxin-mediated PIN polarity rearrangements, such as vascular tissue development during leaf venation, showed a higher WRKY23 expression and required the WRKY23 activity. Our results provide initial insights into the auxin transcriptional network acting upstream of PIN polarization and, potentially, canalization-mediated plant development.
The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.
The thermal structure of subduction zones exerts a major influence on deep-seated mechanical and chemical processes controlling arc magmatism, seismicity, and global element cycles. Accretionary complexes exposed inland may comprise tectonic blocks with contrasting pressure-temperature (P-T) histories, making it possible to investigate the dynamics and thermal evolution of former subduction interfaces. With this aim, we present new Lu-Hf geochronological results for mafic rocks of the Halilbagi Complex (Anatolia) that evolved along different thermal gradients. Samples include a lawsonite-epidote blueschist, a lawsonite-epidote eclogite, and an epidote eclogite (all with counter-clockwise P-T paths), a prograde lawsonite blueschist with a "hairpin"-type P-T path, and a garnet amphibolite from the overlying sub-ophiolitic metamorphic sole. Equilibrium phase diagrams suggest that the garnet amphibolite formed at similar to 0.6-0.7 GPa and 800-850 degrees C, whereas the prograde lawsonite blueschist records burial from 2.1 GPa and 420 degrees C to 2.6 GPa and 520 degrees C. Well-defined Lu-Hf isochrons were obtained for the epidote eclogite (92.38 +/- 0.22 Ma) and the lawsonite-epidote blueschist (90.19 +/- 0.54 Ma), suggesting rapid garnet growth. The lawsonite-epidote eclogite (87.30 +/- 0.39 Ma) and the prograde lawsonite blueschist (ca. 86 Ma) are younger, whereas the garnet amphibolite (104.5 +/- 3.5 Ma) is older. Our data reveal a consistent trend of progressively decreasing geothermal gradient from granulite-facies conditions at similar to 104 Ma to the epidote-eclogite facies around 92 Ma, and the lawsonite blueschist-facies between 90 Ma and 86 Ma. Three Lu-Hf garnet dates (between 92 Ma and 87 Ma) weighted toward the growth of post-peak rims (as indicated by Lu distribution in garnet) suggest that the HP/LT rocks were exhumed continuously and not episodically. We infer that HP/LT metamorphic rocks within the Halilbagi Complex were subjected to continuous return flow, with "warm" rocks being exhumed during the tectonic burial of "cold" ones. Our results, combined with regional geological constraints, allow us to speculate that subduction started at a transform fault near a mid-oceanic spreading centre. Following its formation, this ancient subduction interface evolved thermally over more than 15 Myr, most likely as a result of heat dissipation rather than crustal underplating.
PURPOSE. Graves' orbitopathy (GO) is an autoimmune orbital disorder associated with Graves' disease caused by thyrotropin receptor autoantibodies. Orbital fibroblasts (OFs) and CD40 play a key role in disease pathogenesis. The bioactive lipid sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) has been implicated in promoting adipogenesis, fibrosis, and inflammation in OFs. We investigated the role of CD40 signaling in inducing S1P activity in orbital inflammation.
METHODS. OFs and T cells were derived from GO patients and healthy control (Ctl) persons. S1P abundance in orbital tissues was evaluated by immunofluorescence. OFs were stimulated with CD40 ligand and S1P levels were determined by ELISA. Further, activities of acid sphingomyelinase (ASM), acid ceramidase, and sphingosine kinase were measured by ultraperformance liquid chromatography. Sphingosine and ceramide contents were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Finally, the role for S1P in T-cell attraction was investigated by T-cell migration assays.
RESULTS. GO orbital tissue showed elevated amounts of S1P as compared to control samples. Stimulation of CD40 induced S1P expression in GO-derived OFs, while Ctl-OFs remained unaffected. A significant increase of ASM and sphingosine kinase activities, as well as lipid formation, was observed in GO-derived OFs. Migration assay of T cells in the presence of SphK inhibitor revealed that S1P released by GO-OFs attracted T cells for migration.
CONCLUSIONS. The results demonstrated that CD40 ligand stimulates GO fibroblast to produce S1P, which is a driving force for T-cell migration. The results support the use of S1P receptor signaling modulators in GO management.
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.
Historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) and its extinct Eurasian populations
(2018)
Background
Resolving the historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) is a complex issue, because patterns inferred from fossils and from molecular data lack congruence. Fossil evidence supports an African origin, and suggests that leopards were already present in Eurasia during the Early Pleistocene. Analysis of DNA sequences however, suggests a more recent, Middle Pleistocene shared ancestry of Asian and African leopards. These contrasting patterns led researchers to propose a two-stage hypothesis of leopard dispersal out of Africa: an initial Early Pleistocene colonisation of Asia and a subsequent replacement by a second colonisation wave during the Middle Pleistocene. The status of Late Pleistocene European leopards within this scenario is unclear: were these populations remnants of the first dispersal, or do the last surviving European leopards share more recent ancestry with their African counterparts?
Results
In this study, we generate and analyse mitogenome sequences from historical samples that span the entire modern leopard distribution, as well as from Late Pleistocene remains. We find a deep bifurcation between African and Eurasian mitochondrial lineages (~ 710 Ka), with the European ancient samples as sister to all Asian lineages (~ 483 Ka). The modern and historical mainland Asian lineages share a relatively recent common ancestor (~ 122 Ka), and we find one Javan sample nested within these.
Conclusions
The phylogenetic placement of the ancient European leopard as sister group to Asian leopards suggests that these populations originate from the same out-of-Africa dispersal which founded the Asian lineages. The coalescence time found for the mitochondrial lineages aligns well with the earliest undisputed fossils in Eurasia, and thus encourages a re-evaluation of the identification of the much older putative leopard fossils from the region. The relatively recent ancestry of all mainland Asian leopard lineages suggests that these populations underwent a severe population bottleneck during the Pleistocene. Finally, although only based on a single sample, the unexpected phylogenetic placement of the Javan leopard could be interpreted as evidence for exchange of mitochondrial lineages between Java and mainland Asia, calling for further investigation into the evolutionary history of this subspecies.