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Background:
From birth to young adulthood, health and development of young people are strongly linked to their living situation, including their family's socioeconomic position (SEP) and living environment. The impact of regional characteristics on development in early childhood beyond family SEP has been rarely investigated. This study aimed to identify regional predictors of global developmental delay at school entry taking family SEP into consideration.
Method:
We used representative, population-based data from mandatory school entry examinations of the German federal state of Brandenburg in 2018/2019 with n=22,801 preschool children. By applying binary multilevel models, we hierarchically analyzed the effect of regional deprivation defined by the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation (GISD) and rurality operationalized as inverted population density of the children's school district on global developmental delay (GDD) while adjusting for family SEP (low, medium and high)
Results:
Family SEP was significantly and strongly linked to GDD. Children with the highest family SEP showed a lower odds for GDD compared to a medium SEP (female: OR=4.26, male: OR=3.46) and low SEP (female: OR=16.58, male: OR=12.79). Furthermore, we discovered a smaller, but additional and independent effect of regional socioeconomic deprivation on GDD, with a higher odds for children from a more deprived school district (female: OR=1.35, male: OR=1.20). However, rurality did not show a significant link to GDD in preschool children beyond family SEP and regional deprivation.
Conclusion:
Family SEP and regional deprivation are risk factors for child development and of particular interest to promote health of children in early childhood and over the life course.
Association of primary allostatic load mediators and metabolic syndrome (MetS): A systematic review
(2022)
Allostatic load (AL) exposure may cause detrimental effects on the neuroendocrine system, leading to metabolic syndrome (MetS). The primary mediators of AL involve serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS; a functional HPA axis antagonist); further, cortisol, urinary norepinephrine (NE), and epinephrine (EPI) excretion levels (assessed within 12-h urine as a golden standard for the evaluation of the HPA axis activity and sympathetic nervous system activity). However, the evidence of an association between the primary mediators of AL and MetS is limited. This systematic review aimed to critically examine the association between the primary mediators of AL and MetS. PubMed and Web of Science were searched for articles from January 2010 to December 2021, published in English. The search strategy focused on cross-sectional and case–control studies comprising adult participants with MetS, obesity, overweight, and without chronic diseases. The STROBE checklist was used to assess study quality control. Of 770 studies, twenty-one studies with a total sample size (n = 10,666) met the eligibility criteria. Eighteen studies were cross-sectional, and three were case–control studies. The included studies had a completeness of reporting score of COR % = 87.0 ± 6.4%. It is to be noted, that cortisol as a primary mediator of AL showed an association with MetS in 50% (urinary cortisol), 40% (serum cortisol), 60% (salivary cortisol), and 100% (hair cortisol) of the studies. For DHEAS, it is to conclude that 60% of the studies showed an association with MetS. In contrast, urinary EPI and urinary NE had 100% no association with MetS. In summary, there is a tendency for the association between higher serum cortisol, salivary cortisol, urinary cortisol, hair cortisol, and lower levels of DHEAS with MetS. Future studies focusing on longitudinal data are warranted for clarification and understanding of the association between the primary mediators of AL and MetS.
Assessment of climate change impact on discharge of the lakhmass catchment (Northwest Tunisia)
(2022)
The Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km(2). First, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981-1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, -9.5%) for calibration (September 1982-August 1984) and validation (September 1984-August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981-2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 degrees C of global warming. By long-term (2070-2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 degrees C and 4 degrees C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users.
Background and Aims Wearable inertial sensors may offer additional kinematic parameters of the shoulder compared to traditional instruments such as goniometers when elaborate and time-consuming data processing procedures are undertaken. However, in clinical practice simple-real time motion analysis is required to improve clinical reasoning. Therefore, the aim was to assess the criterion validity between a portable "off-the-shelf" sensor-software system (IMU) and optical motion (Mocap) for measuring kinematic parameters during active shoulder movements. Methods 24 healthy participants (9 female, 15 male, age 29 +/- 4 years, height 177 +/- 11 cm, weight 73 +/- 14 kg) were included. Range of motion (ROM), total range of motion (TROM), peak and mean angular velocity of both systems were assessed during simple (abduction/adduction, horizontal flexion/horizontal extension, vertical flexion/extension, and external/internal rotation) and complex shoulder movements. Criterion validity was determined using intraclass-correlation coefficients (ICC), root mean square error (RMSE) and Bland and Altmann analysis (bias; upper and lower limits of agreement). Results ROM and TROM analysis revealed inconsistent validity during simple (ICC: 0.040-0.733, RMSE: 9.7 degrees-20.3 degrees, bias: 1.2 degrees-50.7 degrees) and insufficient agreement during complex shoulder movements (ICC: 0.104-0.453, RMSE: 10.1 degrees-23.3 degrees, bias: 1.0 degrees-55.9 degrees). Peak angular velocity (ICC: 0.202-0.865, RMSE: 14.6 degrees/s-26.7 degrees/s, bias: 10.2 degrees/s-29.9 degrees/s) and mean angular velocity (ICC: 0.019-0.786, RMSE:6.1 degrees/s-34.2 degrees/s, bias: 1.6 degrees/s-27.8 degrees/s) were inconsistent. Conclusions The "off-the-shelf" sensor-software system showed overall insufficient agreement with the gold standard. Further development of commercial IMU-software-solutions may increase measurement accuracy and permit their integration into everyday clinical practice.
Environmental pollution by microplastics has become a severe problem in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and, according to actual prognoses, problems will further increase in the future. Therefore, assessing and quantifying the risk for the biota is crucial. Standardized short-term toxicological procedures as well as methods quantifying potential toxic effects over the whole life span of an animal are required. We studied the effect of the microplastic polystyrene on the survival and reproduction of a common freshwater invertebrate, the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, at different timescales. We used pristine polystyrene spheres of 1, 3, and 6 µm diameter and fed them to the animals together with food algae in different ratios ranging from 0 to 50% nonfood particles. As a particle control, we used silica to distinguish between a pure particle effect and a plastic effect. After 24 h, no toxic effect was found, neither with polystyrene nor with silica. After 96 h, a toxic effect was detectable for both particle types. The size of the particles played a negligible role. Studying the long-term effect by using life table experiments, we found a reduced reproduction when the animals were fed with 3 µm spheres together with similar-sized food algae. We conclude that the fitness reduction is mainly driven by the dilution of food by the nonfood particles rather than by a direct toxic effect.
Assessing the impact of hydrogen absorption on the characteristics of the Galactic center excess
(2022)
We present a new reconstruction of the distribution of atomic hydrogen in the inner Galaxy that is based on explicit radiation transport modeling of line and continuum emission and a gas-flow model in the barred Galaxy that provides distance resolution for lines of sight toward the Galactic center.
The main benefits of the new gas model are (a) the ability to reproduce the negative line signals seen with the HI4PI survey and (b) the accounting for gas that primarily manifests itself through absorption.
We apply the new model of Galactic atomic hydrogen to an analysis of the diffuse gamma-ray emission from the inner Galaxy, for which an excess at a few GeV was reported that may be related to dark matter.
We find with high significance an improved fit to the diffuse gamma-ray emission observed with the Fermi-LAT, if our new H i model is used to estimate the cosmic-ray induced diffuse gamma-ray emission.
The fit still requires a nuclear bulge at high significance. Once this is included there is no evidence of a dark-matter signal, be it cuspy or cored. But an additional so-called boxy bulge is still favored by the data.
This finding is robust under the variation of various parameters, for example, the excitation temperature of atomic hydrogen, and a number of tests for systematic issues.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use.
This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution.
Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time.
The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible.
This paper presents the results of a novel experimental approach to relative quantifier scope in German that elicits data in an indirect manner. Applying the covered-box method (Huang et al. 2013) to scope phenomena, we show that inverse scope is available to some extent in the free constituent order language German, thereby validating earlier findings on other syntactic configurations in German (Rado & Bott 2018) and empirical claims on other free constituent order languages (Japanese, Russian, Hindi), as well as recent corpus findings in Webelhuth (2020). Moreover, the results of the indirect covered-box experiment replicate findings from an earlier direct-query experiment with comparable target items, in which participants were asked directly about the availability of surface scope and inverse scope readings. The configuration of interest consisted of canonical transitive clauses with deaccented existential subject and universal object QPs, in which the restriction of the universal QP was controlled for by the context.
Despite the positive effects of including patients’ preferences into therapy on psychotherapy outcomes, there are still few thoroughly validated assessment tools at hand. We translated the 18-item Cooper-Norcross Inventory of Preferences (C-NIP) into German and aimed at replicating its factor structure. Further, we investigated the reliability of the questionnaire and its convergence with trait measures. A heterogeneous sample of N = 969 participants took part in our online survey. Performing ESEM models, we found acceptable model fit for a four-factor structure similar to the original factor structure. Furthermore, we propose an alternative model following the adjustment of single items. The German C-NIP showed acceptable to good reliability, as well as small correlations with Big-Five personality traits, trait and attachment anxiety, locus of control, and temporal focus. However, we recommend further replication of the factor structure and further validation of the C-NIP.
Despite the positive effects of including patients' preferences into therapy on psychotherapy outcomes, there are still few thoroughly validated assessment tools at hand. We translated the 18-item Cooper-Norcross Inventory of Preferences (C-NIP) into German and aimed at replicating its factor structure. Further, we investigated the reliability of the questionnaire and its convergence with trait measures. A heterogeneous sample of N = 969 participants took part in our online survey. Performing ESEM models, we found acceptable model fit for a four-factor structure similar to the original factor structure. Furthermore, we propose an alternative model following the adjustment of single items. The German C-NIP showed acceptable to good reliability, as well as small correlations with Big-Five personality traits, trait and attachment anxiety, locus of control, and temporal focus. However, we recommend further replication of the factor structure and further validation of the C-NIP.
In this article, we address the measurement of individualized instruction in the context of regular classroom instruction. Our study assessed instructional practices geared towards individualization in German third grade reading lessons by combining self-report data from 621 students, from their teachers (n = 57), and live obser-vations. We then investigated the reliability of these different approaches to measuring individualization as well as the agreement between them. All three approaches yielded reliable indicators of individualized practices, but not all of them corresponded with each other. We found considerable agreement between students and observers, but neither agreed with teachers' self-reports. Upon closer examination, we found that students' ratings only correlated with teacher ratings that were provided close to the timepoint of interest. This correlation increased when teacher measures were corrected for response tendencies. We conclude with some recommendations for future studies that aim to measure individualized instruction in the classroom.
After a long history of floodplain degradation and substantial losses of inundation areas over the last decades, a rethinking of floodplain management has taken place in Germany.
Floodplains are now acknowledged as important areas for both biodiversity and society. This transformation has been significantly supported by nationwide research activities. A systematic assessment of the current floodplain management is still lacking.
We therefore developed a scheme to assess floodplain management through the steps of identification, analysis, implementation, and evaluation.
Reviewing the data and literature on nationwide floodplain-related research and activities, we defined key elements of floodplain management for Germany.
We concluded that research activities already follow a strategic nationwide approach of identifying and analyzing floodplains.
Progress in implementation is slow, however, and potentials are far from being reached.
Nevertheless, new and unique initiatives enable Germany to stay on the long-term path of giving rivers more space and improving floodplain conditions.
Simple Summary Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are considered endangered and their population is in continuous decline. Understanding their social interactions, health, and welfare status has been a topic of intense research in recent decades. Coagulation assessments have been underutilized in wildlife but can give valuable information on individual health. This study aims to increase the knowledge of the coagulation status in healthy Asian elephants from different backgrounds and age groups, using a fast point-of-care analyzer. This tool can be further used in either routine health check-ups performed by caretakers or in a clinical emergency, such as in cases of elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus hemorrhagic disease outbreaks. We have also investigated the presence of genomic mutations in one coagulation factor-factor VII-where a disorder was previously reported in an Asian elephant. Hereby, we report new reference values for coagulation parameters, such as coagulation times and fibrinogen concentration of Asian elephants assessed in Thailand and in Europe, as well as several single point mutations found in the exons of Elephas maximus coagulation F7 gene. We found the point-of-care analyzer used in this study to be very practical and user friendly for a zoo and field environment and hope that this project will incentivize further coagulation studies in Asian elephants and in other wildlife species. The Asian elephant population is continuously declining due to several extrinsic reasons in their range countries, but also due to diseases in captive populations worldwide. One of these diseases, the elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus (EEHV) hemorrhagic disease, is very impactful because it particularly affects Asian elephant calves. It is commonly fatal and presents as an acute and generalized hemorrhagic syndrome. Therefore, having reference values of coagulation parameters, and obtaining such values for diseased animals in a very short time, is of great importance. We analyzed prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and fibrinogen concentrations using a portable and fast point-of-care analyzer (VetScan Pro) in 127 Asian elephants from Thai camps and European captive herds. We found significantly different PT and aPTT coagulation times between elephants from the two regions, as well as clear differences in fibrinogen concentration. Nevertheless, these alterations were not expected to have biological or clinical implications. We have also sequenced the coagulation factor VII gene of 141 animals to assess the presence of a previously reported hereditary coagulation disorder in Asian elephants and to investigate the presence of other mutations. We did not find the previously reported mutation in our study population. Instead, we discovered the presence of several new single nucleotide polymorphisms, two of them being considered as deleterious by effect prediction software.
Glucosinolates are plant secondary metabolites found in cruciferous vegetables (Brassicaceae) that are valued for their potential health benefits. Frequently consumed representatives of these vegetables, for example, are white or red cabbage, which are typically boiled before consumption. Recently, 3-alk(en)yl-4-hydroxythiazolidine-2-thiones were identified as a class of thermal glucosinolate degradation products that are formed during the boiling of cabbage. Since these newly discovered compounds are frequently consumed, this raises questions about their potential uptake and their possible bioactive functions. Therefore, 3-allyl-4-hydroxythiazolidine-2-thione (allyl HTT) and 4-hydroxy-3-(4-(methylsulfinyl) butyl)thiazolidine-2-thione (4-MSOB HTT) as degradation products of the respective glucosinolates sinigrin and glucoraphanin were investigated. After consumption of boiled red cabbage broth, recoveries of consumed amounts of the degradation products in urine collected for 24 h were 18 +/- 5% for allyl HTT and 21 +/- 4% for 4-MSOB HTT (mean +/- SD, n = 3). To investigate the stability of the degradation products during uptake and to elucidate the uptake mechanism, both an in vitro stomach and an in vitro intestinal model were applied. The results indicate that the uptake of allyl HTT and 4-MSOB HTT occurs by passive diffusion. Both compounds show no acute cell toxicity, no antioxidant potential, and no change in NAD(P)H dehydrogenase quinone 1 (NQO1) activity up to 100 mu M. However, inhibition of glycogen synthase kinases-3 (GSK-3) in the range of 20% for allyl HTT for the isoform GSK-3 beta and 29% for 4-MSOB HTT for the isoform GSK-3 alpha at a concentration of 100 mu M was found. Neither health-promoting nor toxic effects of 3-alk(en)yl-4-hydroxythiazolidine-2-thiones were found in the four tested assays carried out in this study, which contrasts with the properties of other glucosinolate degradation products, such as isothiocyanates.
An accurate estimation of crop yield under climate change scenarios is essential to quantify our ability to feed a growing population and develop agronomic adaptations to meet future food demand. A coordinated evaluation of yield simulations from process-based eco-physiological models for climate change impact assessment is still missing for soybean, the most widely grown grain legume and the main source of protein in our food chain. In this first soybean multi-model study, we used ten prominent models capable of simulating soybean yield under varying temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] to quantify the uncertainty in soybean yield simulations in response to these factors. Models were first parametrized with high quality measured data from five contrasting environments. We found considerable variability among models in simulated yield responses to increasing temperature and [CO2]. For example, under a + 3 degrees C temperature rise in our coolest location in Argentina, some models simulated that yield would reduce as much as 24%, while others simulated yield increases up to 29%. In our warmest location in Brazil, the models simulated a yield reduction ranging from a 38% decrease under + 3 degrees C temperature rise to no effect on yield. Similarly, when increasing [CO2] from 360 to 540 ppm, the models simulated a yield increase that ranged from 6% to 31%. Model calibration did not reduce variability across models but had an unexpected effect on modifying yield responses to temperature for some of the models. The high uncertainty in model responses indicates the limited applicability of individual models for climate change food projections. However, the ensemble mean of simulations across models was an effective tool to reduce the high uncertainty in soybean yield simulations associated with individual models and their parametrization. Ensemble mean yield responses to temperature and [CO2] were similar to those reported from the literature. Our study is the first demonstration of the benefits achieved from using an ensemble of grain legume models for climate change food projections, and highlights that further soybean model development with experiments under elevated [CO2] and temperature is needed to reduce the uncertainty from the individual models.
ArcticBeach v1.0
(2022)
In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007-2016, and 1995-2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014-2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.
Increasing arctic coastal erosion rates imply a greater release of sediments and organic matter into the coastal zone. With 213 sediment samples taken around Herschel Island-Qikiqtaruk, Canadian Beaufort Sea, we aimed to gain new insights on sediment dynamics and geochemical properties of a shallow arctic nearshore zone. Spatial characteristics of nearshore sediment texture (moderately to poorly sorted silt) are dictated by hydrodynamic processes, but ice-related processes also play a role. We determined organic matter (OM) distribution and inferred the origin and quality of organic carbon by C/N ratios and stable carbon isotopes delta C-13. The carbon content was higher offshore and in sheltered areas (mean: 1.0 wt.%., S.D.: 0.9) and the C/N ratios also showed a similar spatial pattern (mean: 11.1, S.D.: 3.1), while the delta C-13 (mean: -26.4 parts per thousand VPDB, S.D.: 0.4) distribution was more complex. We compared the geochemical parameters of our study with terrestrial and marine samples from other studies using a bootstrap approach. Sediments of the current study contained 6.5 times and 1.8 times less total organic carbon than undisturbed and disturbed terrestrial sediments, respectively. Therefore, degradation of OM and separation of carbon pools take place on land and continue in the nearshore zone, where OM is leached, mineralized, or transported beyond the study area.
We propose a global geomagnetic field model for the last 14 thousand years, based on thermoremanent records. We call the model ArchKalmag14k. ArchKalmag14k is constructed by modifying recently proposed algorithms, based on space-time correlations. Due to the amount of data and complexity of the model, the full Bayesian posterior is numerically intractable. To tackle this, we sequentialize the inversion by implementing a Kalman-filter with a fixed time step. Every step consists of a prediction, based on a degree dependent temporal covariance, and a correction via Gaussian process regression. Dating errors are treated via a noisy input formulation. Cross correlations are reintroduced by a smoothing algorithm and model parameters are inferred from the data. Due to the specific statistical nature of the proposed algorithms, the model comes with space and time-dependent uncertainty estimates. The new model ArchKalmag14k shows less variation in the large-scale degrees than comparable models. Local predictions represent the underlying data and agree with comparable models, if the location is sampled well. Uncertainties are bigger for earlier times and in regions of sparse data coverage. We also use ArchKalmag14k to analyze the appearance and evolution of the South Atlantic anomaly together with reverse flux patches at the core-mantle boundary, considering the model uncertainties. While we find good agreement with earlier models for recent times, our model suggests a different evolution of intensity minima prior to 1650 CE. In general, our results suggest that prior to 6000 BCE the data is not sufficient to support global models.
The use of neural networks is considered as the state of the art in the field of image classification. A large number of different networks are available for this purpose, which, appropriately trained, permit a high level of classification accuracy. Typically, these networks are applied to uncompressed image data, since a corresponding training was also carried out using image data of similar high quality. However, if image data contains image errors, the classification accuracy deteriorates drastically. This applies in particular to coding artifacts which occur due to image and video compression. Typical application scenarios for video compression are narrowband transmission channels for which video coding is required but a subsequent classification is to be carried out on the receiver side. In this paper we present a special H.264/Advanced Video Codec (AVC) based video codec that allows certain regions of a picture to be coded with near constant picture quality in order to allow a reliable classification using neural networks, whereas the remaining image will be coded using constant bit rate. We have combined this feature with the ability to run with lowest latency properties, which is usually also required in remote control applications scenarios. The codec has been implemented as a fully hardwired High Definition video capable hardware architecture which is suitable for Field Programmable Gate Arrays.
Forest microclimate can buffer biotic responses to summer heat waves, which are expected to become more extreme under climate warming. Prediction of forest microclimate is limited because meteorological observation standards seldom include situations inside forests.
We use eXtreme Gradient Boosting - a Machine Learning technique - to predict the microclimate of forest sites in Brandenburg, Germany, using seasonal data comprising weather features.
The analysis was amended by applying a SHapley Additive explanation to show the interaction effect of variables and individualised feature attributions.
We evaluate model performance in comparison to artificial neural networks, random forest, support vector machine, and multi-linear regression.
After implementing a feature selection, an ensemble approach was applied to combine individual models for each forest and improve robustness over a given single prediction model.
The resulting model can be applied to translate climate change scenarios into temperatures inside forests to assess temperature-related ecosystem services provided by forests.
Physical activity and exercise are effective approaches in prevention and therapy of multiple diseases. Although the specific characteristics of lengthening contractions have the potential to be beneficial in many clinical conditions, eccentric training is not commonly used in clinical populations with metabolic, orthopaedic, or neurologic conditions. The purpose of this pilot study is to investigate the feasibility, functional benefits, and systemic responses of an eccentric exercise program focused on the trunk and lower extremities in people with low back pain (LBP) and multiple sclerosis (MS). A six-week eccentric training program with three weekly sessions is performed by people with LBP and MS. The program consists of ten exercises addressing strength of the trunk and lower extremities. The study follows a four-group design (N = 12 per group) in two study centers (Israel and Germany): three groups perform the eccentric training program: A) control group (healthy, asymptomatic); B) people with LBP; C) people with MS; group D (people with MS) receives standard care physiotherapy. Baseline measurements are conducted before first training, post-measurement takes place after the last session both comprise blood sampling, self-reported questionnaires, mobility, balance, and strength testing. The feasibility of the eccentric training program will be evaluated using quantitative and qualitative measures related to the study process, compliance and adherence, safety, and overall program assessment. For preliminary assessment of potential intervention effects, surrogate parameters related to mobility, postural control, muscle strength and systemic effects are assessed. The presented study will add knowledge regarding safety, feasibility, and initial effects of eccentric training in people with orthopaedic and neurological conditions. The simple exercises, that are easily modifiable in complexity and intensity, are likely beneficial to other populations. Thus, multiple applications and implementation pathways for the herein presented training program are conceivable.
Although phytoliths are recognized as an important proxy for paleoenvironmental reconstruction, the quantitative relationship between phytoliths and climate is still debated. In order to provide an improved basis for phytolith-based paleoclimate reconstructions, a representative modern phytolith dataset is essential. Here, we synthesize a modern topsoil phytolith dataset for Northeast China, analyze its climatic significance, and apply it to a fossil phytolith series from the Hani peat core in Northeast China. The dataset comprises 660 topsoil phytolith assemblages from 289 sample sites. We compiled modern meteorological data to assess the quantitative relationship between the phytolith assemblages and climatic variables. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and Redundancy analysis (RDA) were used to determine the dominant climatic variable influencing the phytolith distributions. The results showed that mean annual temperature (MAT) is the dominant variable controlling the spatial distribution of phytoliths, accounting for 8.91% of the total variance. Transfer function based on inverse deshrinking locally-weighted weighted averaging (LWWA_Inv) was developed for MAT (R-_boot(2) = 0.86, RMSEP = 1.02 degrees C). Applying the LWWA_Inv transfer function to fossil phytolith records from the Hani peat core enables quantitative inferences to be made about Holocene climate changes in Northeast China. Overall, combined with the LWWA_Inv method, the topsoil phytolith dataset of Northeast China can be used for reliable quantitative MAT reconstruction.
We analyse mobile-immobile transport of particles that switch between the mobile and immobile phases with finite rates. Despite this seemingly simple assumption of Poissonian switching, we unveil a rich transport dynamics including significant transient anomalous diffusion and non-Gaussian displacement distributions. Our discussion is based on experimental parameters for tau proteins in neuronal cells, but the results obtained here are expected to be of relevance for a broad class of processes in complex systems. Specifically, we obtain that, when the mean binding time is significantly longer than the mean mobile time, transient anomalous diffusion is observed at short and intermediate time scales, with a strong dependence on the fraction of initially mobile and immobile particles. We unveil a Laplace distribution of particle displacements at relevant intermediate time scales. For any initial fraction of mobile particles, the respective mean squared displacement (MSD) displays a plateau. Moreover, we demonstrate a short-time cubic time dependence of the MSD for immobile tracers when initially all particles are immobile.
Extracting information about past tectonic or climatic environmental changes from sedimentary records is a key objective of provenance research. Interpreting the imprint of such changes remains challenging as signals might be altered in the sediment-routing system.
We investigate the sedimentary provenance of the Oligocene/Miocene Upper Austrian Northern Alpine Foreland Basin and its response to the tectonically driven exhumation of the Tauern Window metamorphic dome (28 +/- 1 Ma) in the Eastern European Alps by using the unprecedented combination of Nd isotopic composition of bulk-rock clay-sized samples and partly previously published multi-proxy (Nd isotopic composition, trace-element geochemistry, U-Pb dating) sand-sized apatite single-grain analysis.
The basin offers an excellent opportunity to investigate environmental signal propagation into the sedimentary record because comprehensive stratigraphic and seismic datasets can be combined with present research results. The bulk-rock clay-sized fraction epsilon Nd values of well-cutting samples from one well on the northern basin slope remained stable at similar to-9.7 from 27 to 19 Ma but increased after 19 Ma to similar to-9.1. In contrast, apatite single-grain distributions, which were extracted from 22 drill-core samples, changed significantly around 23.3 Ma from apatites dominantly from low-grade (<upper amphibolite-facies) metamorphic sources with Permo-Mesozoic and late Variscan U-Pb ages and epsilon Nd values of -4.4 to dominantly high-grade metamorphic apatites with late Variscan U-Pb ages and epsilon Nd values of -2.2.
The change in apatite single-grain distributions at 23.3 Ma is interpreted to result from the exposure of a new Upper Austroalpine source nappe with less negative epsilon Nd values triggered by the ongoing Tauern Window exhumation. Combining these data with the clay-sized bulk-rock epsilon Nd values reveals that the provenance changed 4-5 Myrs later at 19 Ma in the clay-sized fraction.
Reasons for the delayed provenance-change recording are rooted in the characteristics of the applied methods.
Whereas single-grain distributions of orogen-wide sediment-routing systems can be dominated by geographically small areas with high erosion and mineral fertility rates, bulk-rock methods integrate over the entire drainage basin, thus diminishing extreme values. Hence, by combining these two methods, spatial information are uncovered, enabling a previously unattained understanding of the underlying environmental change.
Polymeric antimicrobial peptide mimics are a promising alternative for the future management of the daunting problems associated with antimicrobial resistance. However, the development of successful antimicrobial polymers (APs) requires careful control of factors such as amphiphilic balance, molecular weight, dispersity, sequence, and architecture. While most of the earlier developed APs focus on random linear copolymers, the development of APs with advanced architectures proves to be more potent. It is recently developed multivalent bottlebrush APs with improved antibacterial and hemocompatibility profiles, outperforming their linear counterparts. Understanding the rationale behind the outstanding biological activity of these newly developed antimicrobials is vital to further improving their performance. This work investigates the physicochemical properties governing the differences in activity between linear and bottlebrush architectures using various spectroscopic and microscopic techniques. Linear copolymers are more solvated, thermo-responsive, and possess facial amphiphilicity resulting in random aggregations when interacting with liposomes mimicking Escheria coli membranes. The bottlebrush copolymers adopt a more stable secondary conformation in aqueous solution in comparison to linear copolymers, conferring rapid and more specific binding mechanism to membranes. The advantageous physicochemical properties of the bottlebrush topology seem to be a determinant factor in the activity of these promising APs.
IntroductionPostoperative delirium (POD) is a common and serious adverse event of surgery in older people. Because of its great impact on patients' safety and quality of life, identification of modifiable risk factors could be useful. Although preoperative medication intake is assumed to be an important modifiable risk factor, the impact of anticholinergic drugs on the occurrence of POD seems underestimated in elective surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between preoperative anticholinergic burden and POD. We hypothesized that a high preoperative anticholinergic burden is an independent, potentially modifiable predisposing and precipitating factor of POD in older people. MethodsBetween November 2017 and April 2019, 1,470 patients of 70 years and older undergoing elective orthopedic, general, cardiac, or vascular surgery were recruited in the randomized, prospective, multicenter PAWEL trial. Anticholinergic burden of a sub-cohort of 899 patients, who did not receive a multimodal intervention for preventing POD, was assessed by two different tools at hospital admission: The established Anticholinergic Risk Scale (ARS) and the recently developed Anticholinergic Burden Score (ABS). POD was detected by confusion assessment method (CAM) and a validated post discharge medical record review. Logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between anticholinergic burden and POD. ResultsPOD was observed in 210 of 899 patients (23.4%). Both ARS and ABS were independently associated with POD. The association persisted after adjustment for relevant confounding factors such as age, sex, comorbidities, preoperative cognitive and physical status, number of prescribed drugs, surgery time, type of surgery and anesthesia, usage of heart-lung-machine, and treatment in intensive care unit. If a patient was taking one of the 56 drugs listed in the ABS, risk for POD was 2.7-fold higher (OR = 2.74, 95% CI = 1.55-4.94) and 1.5-fold higher per additional point on the ARS (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15-2.02). ConclusionPreoperative anticholinergic drug exposure measured by ARS or ABS was independently associated with POD in older patients undergoing elective surgery. Therefore, identification, discontinuation or substitution of anticholinergic medication prior to surgery may be a promising approach to reduce the risk of POD in older patients.
Aquatic ecosystems are frequently overlooked as fungal habitats, although there is increasing evidence that their diversity and ecological importance are greater than previously considered. Aquatic fungi are critical and abundant components of nutrient cycling and food web dynamics, e.g., exerting top-down control on phytoplankton communities and forming symbioses with many marine microorganisms. However, their relevance for microphytobenthic communities is almost unexplored. In the light of global warming, polar regions face extreme changes in abiotic factors with a severe impact on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Therefore, this study aimed to describe, for the first time, fungal diversity in Antarctic benthic habitats along the salinity gradient and to determine the co-occurrence of fungal parasites with their algal hosts, which were dominated by benthic diatoms. Our results reveal that Ascomycota and Chytridiomycota are the most abundant fungal taxa in these habitats. We show that also in Antarctic waters, salinity has a major impact on shaping not just fungal but rather the whole eukaryotic community composition, with a diversity of aquatic fungi increasing as salinity decreases. Moreover, we determined correlations between putative fungal parasites and potential benthic diatom hosts, highlighting the need for further systematic analysis of fungal diversity along with studies on taxonomy and ecological roles of Chytridiomycota.
Answer set planning
(2022)
Answer Set Planning refers to the use of Answer Set Programming (ASP) to compute plans, that is, solutions to planning problems, that transform a given state of the world to another state. The development of efficient and scalable answer set solvers has provided a significant boost to the development of ASP-based planning systems. This paper surveys the progress made during the last two and a half decades in the area of answer set planning, from its foundations to its use in challenging planning domains. The survey explores the advantages and disadvantages of answer set planning. It also discusses typical applications of answer set planning and presents a set of challenges for future research.
How does a systematic time-dependence of the diffusion coefficient D(t) affect the ergodic and statistical characteristics of fractional Brownian motion (FBM)? Here, we answer this question via studying the characteristics of a set of standard statistical quantifiers relevant to single-particle-tracking (SPT) experiments. We examine, for instance, how the behavior of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean-squared displacements-denoted as the standard MSD < x(2)(Delta)> and TAMSD <<(delta(2)(Delta))over bar>> quantifiers-of FBM featuring < x(2) (Delta >> = <<(delta(2)(Delta >)over bar>> proportional to Delta(2H) (where H is the Hurst exponent and Delta is the [lag] time) changes in the presence of a power-law deterministically varying diffusivity D-proportional to(t) proportional to t(alpha-1) -germane to the process of scaled Brownian motion (SBM)-determining the strength of fractional Gaussian noise. The resulting compound "scaled-fractional" Brownian motion or FBM-SBM is found to be nonergodic, with < x(2)(Delta >> proportional to Delta(alpha+)(2H)(-1) and <(delta 2(Delta >) over bar > proportional to Delta(2H). We also detect a stalling behavior of the MSDs for very subdiffusive SBM and FBM, when alpha + 2H - 1 < 0. The distribution of particle displacements for FBM-SBM remains Gaussian, as that for the parent processes of FBM and SBM, in the entire region of scaling exponents (0 < alpha < 2 and 0 < H < 1). The FBM-SBM process is aging in a manner similar to SBM. The velocity autocorrelation function (ACF) of particle increments of FBM-SBM exhibits a dip when the parent FBM process is subdiffusive. Both for sub- and superdiffusive FBM contributions to the FBM-SBM process, the SBM exponent affects the long-time decay exponent of the ACF. Applications of the FBM-SBM-amalgamated process to the analysis of SPT data are discussed. A comparative tabulated overview of recent experimental (mainly SPT) and computational datasets amenable for interpretation in terms of FBM-, SBM-, and FBM-SBM-like models of diffusion culminates the presentation. The statistical aspects of the dynamics of a wide range of biological systems is compared in the table, from nanosized beads in living cells, to chromosomal loci, to water diffusion in the brain, and, finally, to patterns of animal movements.
Neutrophil granulocytes are essential for the first host defense. After leaving the blood circulation they migrate efficiently towards sites of inflammation. They are guided by chemoattractants released from cells within the inflammatory foci. On a cellular level, directional migration is a consequence of cellular front-rear asymmetry which is induced by the concentration gradient of the chemoattractants. The generation and maintenance of this asymmetry, however, is not yet fully understood. Here we analyzed the paths of chemotacting neutrophils with different stochastic models to gain further insight into the underlying mechanisms. Wildtype chemotacting neutrophils show an anomalous superdiffusive behavior. CXCR2 blockade and TRPC6-knockout cause the tempering of temporal correlations and a reduction of chemotaxis. Importantly, such tempering is found both in vitro and in vivo. These findings indicate that the maintenance of anomalous dynamics is crucial for chemotactic behavior and the search efficiency of neutrophils.
The motility of neutrophils and their ability to sense and to react to chemoattractants in their environment are of central importance for the innate immunity. Neutrophils are guided towards sites of inflammation following the activation of G-protein coupled chemoattractant receptors such as CXCR2 whose signaling strongly depends on the activity of Ca2+ permeable TRPC6 channels. It is the aim of this study to analyze data sets obtained in vitro (murine neutrophils) and in vivo (zebrafish neutrophils) with a stochastic mathematical model to gain deeper insight into the underlying mechanisms. The model is based on the analysis of trajectories of individual neutrophils. Bayesian data analysis, including the covariances of positions for fractional Brownian motion as well as for exponentially and power-law tempered model variants, allows the estimation of parameters and model selection. Our model-based analysis reveals that wildtype neutrophils show pure superdiffusive fractional Brownian motion. This so-called anomalous dynamics is characterized by temporal long-range correlations for the movement into the direction of the chemotactic CXCL1 gradient. Pure superdiffusion is absent vertically to this gradient. This points to an asymmetric 'memory' of the migratory machinery, which is found both in vitro and in vivo. CXCR2 blockade and TRPC6-knockout cause tempering of temporal correlations in the chemotactic gradient. This can be interpreted as a progressive loss of memory, which leads to a marked reduction of chemotaxis and search efficiency of neutrophils. In summary, our findings indicate that spatially differential regulation of anomalous dynamics appears to play a central role in guiding efficient chemotactic behavior.
Ancient genome provides insights into the history of Eurasian lynx in Iberia and Western Europe
(2022)
The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) is one of the most widely distributed felids in the world. However, most of its populations started to decline a few millennia ago. Historical declines have been especially severe in Europe, and particularly in Western Europe, from where the species disappeared in the last few centuries. Here, we analyze the genome of an Eurasian lynx inhabiting the Iberian Peninsula 2500 ya, to gain insights into the phylogeographic position and genetic status of this extinct population. Also, we contextualize previous ancient data in the light of new phylogeographic studies of the species. Our results suggest that the Iberian population is part of an extinct European lineage closely related to the current Carpathian-Baltic lineages. Also, this sample holds the lowest diversity reported for the species so far, and similar to that of the highly endangered Iberian lynx. A combination of historical factors, such as a founder effect while colonizing the peninsula, together with intensified human impacts during the Holocene in the Cantabrian strip, could have led to a genetic impoverishment of the population and precipitated its extinction. Mitogenomic lineages distribution in space and time support the long-term coexistence of several lineages of Eurasian lynx in Western Europe with fluctuating ranges. While mitochondrial sequences related to the lineages currently found in Balkans and Caucasus were predominant during the Pleistocene, those more closely related to the lineage currently distributed in Central Europe prevailed during the Holocene. The use of ancient genomics has proven to be a useful tool to understand the biogeographic pattern of the Eurasian lynx in the past.
We investigate the variation in oral and written language in terms of anaphoric distance (i.e., the textual distance between anaphors and their antecedents), expanding corpus-based research with experimental evidence.
Contrastive corpus studies demonstrate that oral genres include longer average anaphoric distance than written genres, if the distance is measured in terms of clauses (Fox, 1987; Aktas & Stede, 2020).
We designed an experiment in order to examine the contrasts in oral and written mediums, using the same genre.
We aim to gain more insight about the impact of the medium, in a situation where both mediums convey a similar level of spontaneity, informality and interactivity. We designed a story continuation study, where the participants are recruited via crowdsourcing.
To our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind, where anaphoric distance is manipulated systematically in a language production experiment in order to examine medium distinctions.
We observed that participants use more pronouns in oral medium than in written medium if the anaphoric distance is long.
This result is in line with the implications of the earlier corpus-based research. In addition, our results indicate that anaphoric distance has a larger effect in referential choice for the written medium.
The degradation of polymers is described by mathematical models based on bond cleavage statistics including the decreasing probability of chain cuts with decreasing average chain length. We derive equations for the degradation of chains under a random chain cut and a chain end cut mechanism, which are compared to existing models. The results are used to predict the influence of internal molecular parameters. It is shown that both chain cut mechanisms lead to a similar shape of the mass or molecular mass loss curve. A characteristic time is derived, which can be used to extract the maximum length of soluble fragments l of the polymer. We show that the complete description is needed to extract the degradation rate constant k from the molecular mass loss curve and that l can be used to design polymers that lose less mechanical stability before entering the mass loss phase.
The main Marmara fault (MMF) extends for 150 km through the Sea of Marmara and forms the only portion of the North Anatolian fault zone that has not ruptured in a large event (Mw >7) for the last 250 yr. Accordingly, this portion is potentially a major source contributing to the seismic hazard of the Istanbul region. On 26 September 2019, a sequence of moderate-sized events started along the MMF only 20 km south of Istanbul and were widely felt by the population. The largest three events, 26 September Mw 5.8 (10:59 UTC), 26 September 2019 Mw 4.1 (11:26 UTC), and 20 January 2020 Mw 4.7 were recorded by numerous strong-motion seismic stations and the resulting ground motions were compared to the predicted means resulting from a set of the most recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The estimated residuals were used to investigate the spatial variation of ground motion across the Marmara region. Our results show a strong azimuthal trend in ground-motion residuals, which might indicate systematically repeating directivity effects toward the eastern Marmara region.
Analysis of physicians' probability estimates of a medical outcome based on a sequence of events
(2022)
IMPORTANCE
The probability of a conjunction of 2 independent events is the product of the probabilities of the 2 components and therefore cannot exceed the probability of either component; violation of this basic law is called the conjunction fallacy. A common medical decision-making scenario involves estimating the probability of a final outcome resulting from a sequence of independent events; however, little is known about physicians' ability to accurately estimate the overall probability of success in these situations.
OBJECTIVE
To ascertain whether physicians are able to correctly estimate the overall probability of a medical outcome resulting from 2 independent events.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
This survey study consisted of 3 separate substudies, in which 215 physicians were asked via internet-based survey to estimate the probability of success of each of 2 components of a diagnostic or prognostic sequence as well as the overall probability of success of the 2-step sequence. Substudy 1 was performed from April 2 to 4, 2021, substudy 2 from November 2 toll, 2021, and substudy 3 from May 13 to 19, 2021. All physicians were board certified or board eligible in the primary specialty germane to the substudy (ie, obstetrics and gynecology for substudies land 3 and pulmonology for substudy 2), were recruited from a commercial survey service, and volunteered to participate in the study.
EXPOSURES
Case scenarios presented in an online survey.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Respondents were asked to provide their demographic information in addition to 3 probability estimates. The first substudy included a scenario describing a brow presentation discovered during labor; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the brow presentation would resolve and that the delivery would be vaginal. The second substudy involved a diagnostic evaluation of an incidentally discovered pulmonary nodule; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the patient had a malignant condition and that a technically successful transthoracic needle biopsy would reveal a malignant condition. The third substudy included a modification of the first substudy in an attempt to debias the conjunction fallacy prevalent in the first substudy. Respondents' own probability estimates of the individual events were used to calculate the mathematically correct conjunctive probability.
RESULTS
Among 215 respondents, the mean (SD) age was 54.0 (9.5) years; 142 respondents (66.0%) were male. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. A total of 168 physicians (78.1%) estimated the probability of the 2-step sequence to be greater than the probability of at least 1 of the 2 component events. Compared with the product of their 2 estimated components, respondents overestimated the combined probability by 12.8% (95% CI, 9.6%-16.1%; P < .001) in substudy 1, 19.8% (95% Cl, 16.6%-23.0%; P < .001) in substudy 2, and 18.0% (95% CI, 13.4%-22.5%; P < .001) in substudy 3, results that were mathematically incoherent (ie, formally illogical and mathematically incorrect).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In this survey study of 215 physicians, respondents consistently overestimated the combined probability of 2 events compared with the probability calculated from their own estimates of the individual events. This biased estimation, consistent with the conjunction fallacy, may have substantial implications for diagnostic and prognostic decision-making.
Analysis of electrochemical and liver microsomal transformation products of lasalocid by LC/HRMS
(2022)
Rationale:
Lasalocid (LAS), an ionophore, is used in cattle and poultry farming as feed additive for its antibiotic and growth-promoting properties. Literature on transformation products (TP) resulting from LAS degradation is limited. So far, only hydroxylation is found to occur as the metabolic reaction during the LAS degradation. To investigate potential TPs of LAS, we used electrochemistry (EC) and liver microsome (LM) assays to synthesize TPs, which were identified using liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC/HRMS).
Methods:
Electrochemically produced TPs were analyzed online by direct coupling of the electrochemical cell to the electrospray ionization (ESI) source of a Sciex Triple-TOF high resolution mass spectrometer. Then, EC-treated LAS solution was collected and analyzed offline using LC/HRMS to confirm stable TPs and improve their annotation with a chemical structure due to informative MS/MS spectra. In a complementary approach, TPs formed by rat and human microsomal incubation were investigated using LC/HRMS. The resulting data were used to investigate LAS modification reactions and elucidate the chemical structure of obtained TPs.
Results:
The online measurements identified a broad variety of TPs, resulting from modification reactions like (de-)hydrogenation, hydration, methylation, oxidation as well as adduct formation with methanol. We consistently observed different ion complexations of LAS and LAS-TPs (Na+; 2Na(+) K+; NaNH4+; KNH4+). Two stable methylated EC-TPs were found, structurally annotated, and assigned to a likely modification reaction. Using LM incubation, seven TPs were formed, mostly by oxidation/hydroxylation. After the identification of LM-TPs as Na+-complexes, we identified LM-TPs as K+-complexes.
Conclusion:
We identified and characterized TPs of LAS using EC- and LM-based methods. Moreover, we found different ion complexes of LAS-based TPs. This knowledge, especially the different ion complexes, may help elucidate the metabolic and environmental degradation pathways of LAS.
This paper presents an exploratory study investigating the influence of the factors (1) intermediary participation, (2) decision-making authority, (3) position in the enterprise, and (4) experience in open innovation on the perception and assessment of the benefits and risks expected from participating in open innovation projects. For this purpose, an online survey was conducted in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The result of this paper is an empirical evidence showing whether and how these factors affect the perception of potential benefits and risks expected within the context of open innovation project participation. Furthermore, the identified effects are discussed against the theory. Existing theory regarding the benefits and risks of open innovation is expanded by (1) finding that they are perceived mostly independently of the factors, (2) confirming the practical relevance of benefits and risks, and (3) enabling a finer distinction between their degrees of relevance according to respective contextual specifics.
Public sector organizations at all levels of government increasingly rely on Big Data Algorithmic Systems (BDAS) to support decision-making along the entire policy cycle. But while our knowledge on the use of big data continues to grow for government agencies implementing and delivering public services, empirical research on applications for anticipatory policy design is still in its infancy. Based on the concept of policy analytical capacity (PAC), this case study examines the application of BDAS for early crisis detection within the German Federal Government—that is, the German Federal Foreign Office (FFO) and the Federal Ministry of Defence (FMoD). It uses the nested model of PAC to reflect on systemic, organizational, and individual capacity-building from a neoinstitutional perspective and allow for the consideration of embedded institutional contexts. Results from semi-structured interviews indicate that governments seeking to exploit BDAS in policymaking depend on their institutional environment (e.g., through research and data governance infrastructure). However, specific capacity-building strategies may differ according to the departments' institutional framework, with the FMoD relying heavily on subordinate agencies and the FFO creating network-like structures with external researchers. Government capacity-building at the individual and organizational level is similarly affected by long-established institutional structures, roles, and practices within the organization and beyond, making it important to analyze these three levels simultaneously instead of separately.
Tissue reconstruction has an unmet need for soft active scaffolds that enable gentle loading with regeneration-directing bioactive components by soaking up but also provide macroscopic dimensional stability. Here microporous hydrogels capable of an inverse shape-memory effect (iSME) are described, which in contrast to classical shape-memory polymers (SMPs) recover their permanent shape upon cooling. These hydrogels are designed as covalently photo cross-linked polymer networks with oligo(ethylene glycol)-oligo(propylene glycol)-oligo(ethylene glycol) (OEG-OPG-OEG) segments. When heated after deformation, the OEG-OPG-OEG segments form micelles fixing the temporary shape. Upon cooling, the micelles dissociate again, the deformation is reversed and the permanent shape is obtained. Applicability of this iSME is demonstrated by the gentle loading of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) without causing any platelet activation during this process. PRP is highly bioactive and is widely acknowledged for its regenerative effects. Hence, the microporous inverse shape-memory hydrogel (iSMH) with a cooling induced pore-size effect represents a promising candidate scaffold for tissue regeneration for potential usage in minimally invasive surgery applications.
The subgenus Laurentomantis in the genus Gephyromantis contains some of the least known amphibian species of Madagascar. The six currently valid nominal species are rainforest frogs known from few individuals, hampering a full understanding of the species diversity of the clade. We assembled data on specimens collected during field surveys over the past 30 years and integrated analysis of mitochondrial and nuclear-encoded genes of 88 individuals, a comprehensive bioacoustic analysis, and morphological comparisons to delimit a minimum of nine species-level lineages in the subgenus. To clarify the identity of the species Gephyromantis malagasius, we applied a target-enrichment approach to a sample of the 110 year old holotype of Microphryne malagasia Methuen and Hewitt, 1913 to assign this specimen to a lineage based on a mitochondrial DNA barcode. The holotype clustered unambiguously with specimens previously named G. ventrimaculatus. Consequently we propose to consider Trachymantis malagasia ventrimaculatus Angel, 1935 as a junior synonym of Gephyromantis malagasius. Due to this redefinition of G. malagasius, no scientific name is available for any of the four deep lineages of frogs previously subsumed under this name, all characterized by red color ventrally on the hindlimbs. These are here formally named as Gephyromantis fiharimpe sp. nov., G. matsilo sp. nov., G. oelkrugi sp. nov., and G. portonae sp. nov. The new species are distinguishable from each other by genetic divergences of >4% uncorrected pairwise distance in a fragment of the 16S rRNA marker and a combination of morphological and bioacoustic characters. Gephyromantis fiharimpe and G. matsilo occur, respectively, at mid-elevations and lower elevations along a wide stretch of Madagascar's eastern rainforest band, while G. oelkrugi and G. portonae appear to be more range-restricted in parts of Madagascar's North East and Northern Central East regions. Open taxonomic questions surround G. horridus, to which we here assign specimens from Montagne d'Ambre and the type locality Nosy Be; and G. ranjomavo, which contains genetically divergent populations from Marojejy, Tsaratanana, and Ampotsidy.
The addition of nano-Al2O3 has been shown to enhance the breakdown voltage of epoxy resin, but its flashover results appeared with disputation. This work concentrates on the surface charge variation and dc flashover performance of epoxy resin with nano-Al2O3 doping. The dispersion of nano-Al2O3 in epoxy is characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). The dc flashover voltages of samples under either positive or negative polarity are measured with a finger-electrode system, and the surface charge variations before and after flashovers were identified from the surface potential mapping. The results evidence that nano-Al2O3 would lead to a 16.9% voltage drop for the negative flashovers and a 6.8% drop for positive cases. It is found that one-time flashover clears most of the accumulated surface charges, regardless of positive or negative. As a result, the ground electrode is neighbored by an equipotential zone enclosed with low-density heterocharges. The equipotential zone tends to be broadened after 20 flashovers. The nano-Al2O3 is noticed as beneficial to downsize the equipotential zone due to its capability on charge migration, which is reasonable to maintain flashover voltage at a high level after multiple flashovers. Hence, nano-Al2O3 plays a significant role in improving epoxy with high resistance to multiple flashovers.
The Ca Mau peninsula (CMP) is a key economic region in southern Vietnam. In recent decades, the high demand for water has increased the exploitation of groundwater, thus lowering the groundwater level and leading to risks of degradation, depletion, and land subsidence, as well as salinity intrusion in the groundwater of the whole Mekong Delta region. By using a finite element groundwater model with boundary expansion to the sea, we updated the latest data on hydrogeological profiles, groundwater levels, and exploitation. The basic model setup covers seven aquifers and seven aquitards. It is determined that the inflow along the coastline to the mainland is 39% of the total inflow. The exploitation of the study area in 2019 was 567,364 m(3)/day. The most exploited aquifers are the upper-middle Pleistocene (qp(2-3)) and the middle Pliocene (n(2)(2)), accounting for 63.7% and 24.6%, respectively; the least exploited aquifers are the upper Pleistocene and the upper Miocene, accounting for 0.35% and 0.02%, respectively. In the deeper aquifers, qp(2-3) and n(2)(2), the change in storage is negative due to the high exploitation rate, leading to a decline in the reserves of these aquifers. These groundwater model results are the calculations of groundwater reserves from the coast to the mainland in the entire system of aquifers in the CMP. This makes groundwater decision managers, stakeholders, and others more efficient in sustainable water resources planning in the CMP and Mekong Delta (MKD).
An explicit Dobrushin uniqueness region for Gibbs point processes with repulsive interactions
(2022)
We present a uniqueness result for Gibbs point processes with interactions that come from a non-negative pair potential; in particular, we provide an explicit uniqueness region in terms of activity z and inverse temperature beta. The technique used relies on applying to the continuous setting the classical Dobrushin criterion. We also present a comparison to the two other uniqueness methods of cluster expansion and disagreement percolation, which can also be applied for this type of interaction.
Background
Eating in absence of hunger is quite common and often associated with an increased energy intake co-existent with a poorer food choice. Intuitive eating (IE), i.e., eating in accordance with internal hunger and satiety cues, may protect from overeating. IE, however, requires accurate perception and processing of one’s own bodily signals, also referred to as interoceptive sensitivity. Training interoceptive sensitivity might therefore be an effective method to promote IE and prevent overeating. As most studies on eating behavior are conducted in younger adults and close social relationships influence health-related behavior, this study focuses on middle-aged and older couples.
Methods
The present pilot randomized intervention study aims at investigating the feasibility and effectiveness of a 21-day mindfulness-based training program designed to increase interoceptive sensitivity. A total of N = 60 couples participating in the NutriAct Family Study, aged 50–80 years, will be recruited. This randomized-controlled intervention study comprises three measurement points (pre-intervention, post-intervention, 4-week follow-up) and a 21-day training that consists of daily mindfulness-based guided audio exercises (e.g., body scan). A three-arm intervention study design is applied to compare two intervention groups (training together as a couple vs. training alone) with a control group (no training). Each measurement point includes the assessment of self-reported and objective indicators of interoceptive sensitivity (primary outcome), self-reported indicators of intuitive and maladaptive eating (secondary outcomes), and additional variables. A training evaluation applying focus group discussions will be conducted to assess participants’ overall acceptance of the training and its feasibility.
Discussion
By investigating the feasibility and effectiveness of a mindfulness-based training program to increase interoceptive sensitivity, the present study will contribute to a deeper understanding of how to promote healthy eating in older age.
In order to achieve their business goals, organizations heavily rely on the operational excellence of their business processes. In traditional scenarios, business processes are usually well-structured, clearly specifying when and how certain tasks have to be executed. Flexible and knowledge-intensive processes are gathering momentum, where a knowledge worker drives the execution of a process case and determines the exact process path at runtime. In the case of an exception, the knowledge worker decides on an appropriate handling. While there is initial work on exception handling in well-structured business processes, exceptions in case management have not been sufficiently researched. This paper proposes an exception handling framework for stage-oriented case management languages, namely Guard Stage Milestone Model, Case Management Model and Notation, and Fragment-based Case Management. The effectiveness of the framework is evaluated with two real-world use cases showing that it covers all relevant exceptions and proposed handling strategies.
Individuals who score high in self-reported Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) tend to find uncertainty aversive. Prior research has demonstrated that under uncertainty individuals with high IU display difficulties in updating learned threat associations to safety associations. Importantly, recent research has shown that providing contingency instructions about threat and safety contingencies (i.e. reducing uncertainty) to individuals with high IU promotes the updating of learned threat associations to safety associations. Here we aimed to conceptually replicate IU and contingency instruction-based effects by conducting a secondary analysis of self-reported IU, ratings, skin conductance, and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data recorded during uninstructed/instructed blocks of threat acquisition and threat extinction training (n = 48). Generally, no significant associations were observed between self-reported IU and differential responding to learned threat and safety cues for any measure during uninstructed/instructed blocks of threat acquisition and threat extinction training. There was some tentative evidence that higher IU was associated with greater ratings of unpleasantness and arousal to the safety cue after the experiment and greater skin conductance response to the safety cue during extinction generally. Potential explanations for these null effects and directions for future research are discussed.
We develop an encounter-based approach for describing restricted diffusion with a gradient drift toward a partially reactive boundary. For this purpose, we introduce an extension of the Dirichlet-to-Neumann operator and use its eigenbasis to derive a spectral decomposition for the full propagator, i.e. the joint probability density function for the particle position and its boundary local time. This is the central quantity that determines various characteristics of diffusion-influenced reactions such as conventional propagators, survival probability, first-passage time distribution, boundary local time distribution, and reaction rate. As an illustration, we investigate the impact of a constant drift onto the boundary local time for restricted diffusion on an interval. More generally, this approach accesses how external forces may influence the statistics of encounters of a diffusing particle with the reactive boundary.
In this study, we present an empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt based on the full data set collected by the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are fitted with a combination of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. The resulting equation resolves all PAD types found in the outer radiation belt (pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs) and can be analytically integrated to derive omnidirectional flux. We introduce a two-step modeling procedure that for the first time ensures a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time and activity, parametrized by the solar wind dynamic pressure. We propose two methods to reconstruct equatorial electron flux using the model. The first approach requires two uni-directional flux observations and is applicable to low-PA data. The second method can be used to reconstruct the full equatorial PADs from a single uni- or omnidirectional measurement at off-equatorial latitudes. The model can be used for converting the long-term data sets of electron fluxes to phase space density in terms of adiabatic invariants, for physics-based modeling in the form of boundary conditions, and for data assimilation purposes.