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Taking a new perspective
(2016)
Network analysis has attracted significant attention when researching the phenomenon of transnational terrorism, particularly Al Qaeda. While many scholars have made valuable contributions to mapping Al Qaeda, several problems remain due to a lack of data and the omission of data provided by international organizations such as the UN. Thus, this article applies a social network analysis and subsequent mappings of the data gleaned from the Security Council's consolidated sanctions list, and asks what they can demonstrate about the structure and organizational characteristics of Al Qaeda. The study maps the Al Qaeda network on a large scale using a newly compiled data set. The analysis reveals that the Al Qaeda network consists of several hundred individual and group nodes connecting almost all over the globe. Several major nodes are crucial for the network structure, while simultaneously many other nodes only weakly and foremost regionally connect to the network. The article concludes that the findings tie in well to the latest research pointing to local and simultaneously global elements of Al Qaeda, and that the new data is a valuable source for further analyses, potentially in combination with other data.
What shapes peace, and how can peace be successfully built in those countries affected by armed conflict? This paper examines mpeacebuilding in the aftermath of civil wars in order to identify the conditions for post-conflict peace. The field of civil war research is
characterised by case studies, comparative analyses and quantitative research, which relate relatively little to each other. Furthermore, the complex dynamics of peacebuilding have hardly been investigated so far. Thus, the question remains of how best to enhance the prospects
of a stable peace in post-conflict societies. Therefore, it is necessary to capture the dynamics of post-conflict peace. This paper aims at helping to narrow these research gaps by 1) presenting the benefits of set theoretic methods for peace and conflict studies; 2) identifying remote conflict environment factors and proximate peacebuilding factors which have an influence on the peacebuilding process and 3) proposing a
set-theoretic multi-method research approach in order to identify the causal structures and mechanisms underlying the complex realm of post-conflict peacebuilding. By implementing this transparent and systematic comparative approach, it will become possible to discover
the dynamics of post-conflict peace.
Breaking news from the HST
(2016)
SAO 244567 is a rare example of a star that allows us to witness stellar evolution in real time. Between 1971 and 1990, it changed from a B-type star into the hot central star of the Stingray Nebula. This observed rapid heating has been a mystery for decades, since it is in strong contradiction with the low mass of the star and canonical post-asymptotic giant branch (AGB) evolution. We speculated that SAO 244567 might have suffered from a late thermal pulse (LTP) and obtained new observations with Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/COS to follow the evolution of the surface properties of SAO 244567 and to verify the LTP hypothesis. Our non-LTE spectral analysis reveals that the star cooled significantly since 2002 and that its envelope is now expanding. Therefore, we conclude that SAO 244567 is currently on its way back towards the AGB, which strongly supports the LTP hypothesis. A comparison with state-of-the-art LTP evolutionary calculations shows that these models cannot fully reproduce the evolution of all surface parameters simultaneously, pointing out possible shortcomings of stellar evolution models. Thereby, SAO 244567 keeps on challenging stellar evolution theory and we highly encourage further investigations.
3D point clouds are a digital representation of our world and used in a variety of applications. They are captured with LiDAR or derived by image-matching approaches to get surface information of objects, e.g., indoor scenes, buildings, infrastructures, cities, and landscapes. We present novel interaction and visualization techniques for heterogeneous, time variant, and semantically rich 3D point clouds. Interactive and view-dependent see-through lenses are introduced as exploration tools to enhance recognition of objects, semantics, and temporal changes within 3D point cloud depictions. We also develop filtering and highlighting techniques that are used to dissolve occlusion to give context-specific insights. All techniques can be combined with an out-of-core real-time rendering system for massive 3D point clouds. We have evaluated the presented approach with 3D point clouds from different application domains. The results show the usability and how different visualization and exploration tasks can be improved for a variety of domain-specific applications.
This chapter takes stock with the research on the authority of international organizations (IOs) and international public administrations (IPAs) in the fields of International Relations (IR) and Public Administration (PA). It combines arguments from conceptual and theoretical debates with empirical findings to explore under which conditions IPAs are likely to enjoy authority. Based on a review of the literature and on conceptual clarifications, we define authority as a social relationship between holders and granters of authority. We distinguish two types of authority, namely, political and expert authority, and two forms of recognition, namely, in practice (de facto) and by formal delegation (de jure). Given that the de facto expert authority of IPAs has received least attention in the literature, while the PA literature reminds us that knowledge lies at the heart of bureaucratic power, we develop propositions on how de facto expert authority could be measured and how the anticipated variation of expert authority among IPAs could be explained. We illustrate our argument with reference to empirical findings in the IR and PA literature. We conclude by highlighting the implications of our discussion for future research on the authority of national and IPAs.
A convenient synthesis of gamma-spirolactams in only two steps was developed. Birch reduction of benzoic acids and immediate alkylation with chloroacetonitrile afforded cyclohexadienes in high yields. The products could be isolated by crystallization on a large scale in analytically pure form. Subsequent hydrogenation with platinum(IV) oxide as the catalyst reduced the nitrile functionality and the double bonds in the same step with excellent stereoselectivity. The relative configurations were determined unequivocally by X-ray analyses. Direct cyclization of the intermediary formed amino acids afforded the desired gamma-spirolactams in excellent overall yields. The procedure is characterized by few steps, cheap reagents, and can be performed on a large scale, interesting for industrial processes.
Research based on the Eccles model of parent socialization demonstrated that parents are an important source of value and ability information for their children. Little is known, however, about the bidirectional effects between students’ perceptions of their parents’ beliefs and behaviors and the students’ own domain-specific values. This study analyzed how students’ perceptions of parents’ beliefs and behaviors and students’ mathematics values and mathematics-related career plans affect each other bidirectionally, and analyzed the role of students’ gender as a moderator of these relations. Data from 475 students in 11th and 12th grade (girls: 50.3%; 31 classrooms; 12 schools), who participated in 2 waves of the study, were analyzed. Results of longitudinal structural equation models demonstrated that students’ perceptions of their parents’ mathematics value beliefs at Time 1 affected the students’ own mathematics utility value at Time 2. Bidirectional effects were not shown in the full sample but were identified for boys. The paths within the tested model varied for boys and girls. For example, boys’, not girls’, mathematics intrinsic value predicted their reported conversations with their fathers about future occupational plans. Boys’, not girls’, perceived parents’ mathematics value predicted the mathematics utility value. Findings are discussed in relation to their implications for parents and teachers, as well as in relation to gendered motivational processes.
The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.
WavePacket
(2016)
WavePacket is an open-source program package for the numerical simulation of quantum-mechanical dynamics. It can be used to solve time-independent or time-dependent linear Schrödinger and Liouville–von Neumann-equations in one or more dimensions. Also coupled equations can be treated, which allows to simulate molecular quantum dynamics beyond the Born–Oppenheimer approximation. Optionally accounting for the interaction with external electric fields within the semiclassical dipole approximation, WavePacket can be used to simulate experiments involving tailored light pulses in photo-induced physics or chemistry. The graphical capabilities allow visualization of quantum dynamics ‘on the fly’, including Wigner phase space representations. Being easy to use and highly versatile, WavePacket is well suited for the teaching of quantum mechanics as well as for research projects in atomic, molecular and optical physics or in physical or theoretical chemistry. The present Part I deals with the description of closed quantum systems in terms of Schrödinger equations. The emphasis is on discrete variable representations for spatial discretization as well as various techniques for temporal discretization. The upcoming Part II will focus on open quantum systems and dimension reduction; it also describes the codes for optimal control of quantum dynamics. The present work introduces the MATLAB version of WavePacket 5.2.1 which is hosted at the Sourceforge platform, where extensive Wiki-documentation as well as worked-out demonstration examples can be found.
Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study.
We have assembled CO2 emission figures from collections of urban GHG emission estimates published in peer-reviewed journals or reports from research institutes and non-governmental organizations. Analyzing the scaling with population size, we find that the exponent is development dependent with a transition from super- to sub-linear scaling. From the climate change mitigation point of view, the results suggest that urbanization is desirable in developed countries. Further, we compare this analysis with a second scaling relation, namely the fundamental allometry between city population and area, and propose that density might be a decisive quantity too. Last, we derive the theoretical country-wide urban emissions by integration and obtain a dependence on the size of the largest city.
Ramsey meets Thünen
(2016)
Land taxes can increase production in the manufacturing sector and enhance land conservation at the same time, which can lead to overall macroeconomic growth. Existing research emphasizes the non-distorting properties of land taxes (when fixed factors are taxed) as well as growth-enhancing impacts (when asset portfolios are shifted to reproducible capital). This paper furthers the neoclassical perspective on land taxes by endogenizing land allocation decisions in a multi-sector growth model. Based on von Thünen’s observation, agricultural land is created from wilderness through conversion and cultivation, both of which are associated with costs. In the steady state of our general equilibrium model, land taxes not only may reduce land consumption (associated with environmental benefits) but may also affect overall economic output, while leaving wages and interest rates unaffected. When labor productivity is higher in the manufacturing than in the agricultural sector and agricultural and manufactured goods are substitutes (or the economy is open to world trade), land taxes increase aggregate economic output. There is a complex interplay of conservation policy, technological change and land taxes, depending on consumer preferences, sectoral labor productivities and openness-to-trade. Our model introduces a new perspective on land taxes in current policy debates on development, tax reforms as well as forest conservation.
Phylogeography of the Small Indian Civet and Origin of Introductions to Western Indian Ocean Islands
(2016)
The biogeographic dynamics affecting the Indian subcontinent, East and Southeast Asia during the Plio-Pleistocene has generated complex biodiversity patterns. We assessed the molecular biogeography of the small Indian civet (Viverricula indica) through mitogenome and cytochrome b + control region sequencing of 89 historical and modern samples to (1) establish a time-calibrated phylogeography across the species’ native range and (2) test introduction scenarios to western Indian Ocean islands. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses identified 3 geographic lineages (East Asia, sister-group to Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent + northern Indochina) diverging 3.2–2.3 million years ago (Mya), with no clear signature of past demographic expansion. Within Southeast Asia, Balinese populations separated from the rest 2.6–1.3 Mya. Western Indian Ocean populations were assigned to the Indian subcontinent + northern Indochina lineage and had the lowest mitochondrial diversity. Approximate Bayesian computation did not distinguish between single versus multiple introduction scenarios. The early diversification of the small Indian civet was likely shaped by humid periods in the Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene that created evergreen rainforest barriers, generating areas of intra-specific endemism in the Indian subcontinent, East, and Southeast Asia. Later, Pleistocene dispersals through drier conditions in South and Southeast Asia were likely, giving rise to the species’ current natural distribution. Our molecular data supported the delineation of only 4 subspecies in V. indica, including an endemic Balinese lineage. Our study also highlighted the influence of prefirst millennium AD introductions to western Indian Ocean islands, with Indian and/or Arab traders probably introducing the species for its civet oil.
Lithium is an important component of some tourmalines, especially in chemically evolved granites and pegmatites. All attempts at synthesizing Li-rich tourmaline have so far been unsuccessful. Here we describe the first synthesis of rossmanitic tourmaline at 4 GPa and 700 degrees C in the system Li2OAl2O3SiO2B2O3H2O (LASBH) from seed-free solid starting materials consisting of a homogenous mixture of Li2O, gamma-Al2O3, quartz and H3BO3. The solid run products after 12-day run duration comprise rossmanitic tourmaline (68 wt%), dumortierite (28 wt%) and traces of spodumene (3 wt%) and coesite (1 wt%). Tourmaline forms idiomorphic, large prismatic crystals (30 X 100 mu m), which are inclusion free and chemically unzoned. The refined cell dimensions of the tourmaline are: a = 15.7396(9) angstrom, c = 7.0575(5) angstrom, V = 1514.1(2) angstrom 3. Conventionally, the Li+ ion is assumed to exclusively occupy the octahedral Y site in the tourmaline structure to a maximum of 2 Li per formula unit (pfu). However, the chemical composition of our synthetic tourmaline determined by electron microprobe and secondary ion mass spectroscopy results in the formula: (X)(square Li-0.67(11)(0.33(11)))(Y)(Al2.53(10)Li0.47(10))(Z)(Al-6)T(Si5.42(15)B0.58(15))O-18(B)(BO3)(3)(V+W)[(OH)(2.40(3))O-1.60(3)], wherein a significant amount of Li occupies the X site for charge balance requirements. Reliable assignment of the OH-stretching vibrations in a polarized single-crystal Raman spectrum such as a single-crystal XRD structure refinement, confirms the incorporation of Li at the X site [0.24(9) and 0.15(5) Li-X pfu, respectively]. The SREF data show that the LiO1 distances are shortened significantly in order to compensate for the smaller ionic radius of Li+ compared to Na+, K+ or Ca2+ at the X site, i.e., Li is closer to the Si6O18 ring and to a sevenfold coordination with oxygen.
We report the results from two experiments examining native and non-native German speakers’ sensitivity to crossover constraints on pronoun resolution. Our critical stimuli sentences contained personal pronouns in either strong (SCO) or weak crossover (WCO) configurations. Using eye-movement monitoring during reading and a gender-mismatch paradigm, Experiment 1 investigated whether a fronted wh-phrase would be considered as a potential antecedent for a pronoun intervening between the wh-phrase and its canonical position. Both native and non-native readers initially attempted coreference in WCO but not in SCO configurations, as evidenced by early gender-mismatch effects in our WCO conditions. Experiment 2 was an offline antecedent judgement task whose results mirrored the SCO/WCO asymmetry observed in our reading-time data. Taken together, our results show that the SCO constraint immediately restricts pronoun interpretation in both native and non-native comprehension, and further suggest that SCO and WCO constraints derive from different sources.
We contribute to the theoretical understanding of randomized search heuristics by investigating their optimization behavior on satisfiable random k-satisfiability instances both in the planted solution model and the uniform model conditional on satisfiability. Denoting the number of variables by n, our main technical result is that the simple () evolutionary algorithm with high probability finds a satisfying assignment in time when the clause-variable density is at least logarithmic. For low density instances, evolutionary algorithms seem to be less effective, and all we can show is a subexponential upper bound on the runtime for densities below . We complement these mathematical results with numerical experiments on a broader density spectrum. They indicate that, indeed, the () EA is less efficient on lower densities. Our experiments also suggest that the implicit constants hidden in our main runtime guarantee are low. Our main result extends and considerably improves the result obtained by Sutton and Neumann (Lect Notes Comput Sci 8672:942-951, 2014) in terms of runtime, minimum density, and clause length. These improvements are made possible by establishing a close fitness-distance correlation in certain parts of the search space. This approach might be of independent interest and could be useful for other average-case analyses of randomized search heuristics. While the notion of a fitness-distance correlation has been around for a long time, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that fitness-distance correlation is explicitly used to rigorously prove a performance statement for an evolutionary algorithm.
ObjectivePsychotherapy for hypochondriasis has greatly improved over the last decades and cognitive-behavioral treatments are most promising. However, research on predictors of treatment outcome for hypochondriasis is rare. Possible predictors of treatment outcome in cognitive therapy (CT) and exposure therapy (ET) for hypochondriasis were investigated. MethodCharacteristics and behaviors of 75 patients were considered as possible predictors: sociodemographic variables (sex, age, and cohabitation); psychopathology (pretreatment hypochondriacal symptoms, comorbid mental disorders, and levels of depression, anxiety, and somatic symptoms); and patient in-session interpersonal behavior. ResultsSeverity of pretreatment hypochondriacal symptoms, comorbid mental disorders, and patient in-session interpersonal behavior were significant predictors in multiple hierarchical regression analyses. Interactions between the predictors and the treatment (CT or ET) were not found. ConclusionsIn-session interpersonal behavior is an important predictor of outcome. Furthermore, there are no specific contraindications to treating hypochondriasis with CT or ET.
In this paper, we analyze stochastic dynamic pricing and advertising differential games in special oligopoly markets with constant price and advertising elasticity. We consider the sale of perishable as well as durable goods and include adoption effects in the demand. Based on a unique stochastic feedback Nash equilibrium, we derive closed-form solution formulas of the value functions and the optimal feedback policies of all competing firms. Efficient simulation techniques are used to evaluate optimally controlled sales processes over time. This way, the evolution of optimal controls as well as the firms’ profit distributions are analyzed. Moreover, we are able to compare feedback solutions of the stochastic model with its deterministic counterpart. We show that the market power of the competing firms is exactly the same as in the deterministic version of the model. Further, we discover two fundamental effects that determine the relation between both models. First, the volatility in demand results in a decline of expected profits compared to the deterministic model. Second, we find that saturation effects in demand have an opposite character. We show that the second effect can be strong enough to either exactly balance or even overcompensate the first one. As a result we are able to identify cases in which feedback solutions of the deterministic model provide useful approximations of solutions of the stochastic model.
Engineered nanogels are of high value for a targeted and controlled transport of compounds due to the ability to change their chemical properties by external stimuli. As it has been indicated that nanogels possess a high ability to penetrate the stratum corneum, it cannot be excluded that nanogels interact with dermal dendritic cells, especially in diseased skin. In this study the potential crosstalk of the thermore-sponsive nanogels (tNGs) with the dendritic cells of the skin was investigated with the aim to determine the immunotoxicological properties of the nanogels. The investigated tNGs were made of dendritic polyglycerol (dPG) and poly(glycidyl methyl ether-co-ethyl glycidyl ether) (p(GME-co-EGE)), as polymer conferring thermoresponsive properties. Although the tNGs were taken up, they displayed neither cytotoxic and genotoxic effects nor any induction of reactive oxygen species in the tested cells. Interestingly, specific uptake mechanisms of the tNGs by the dendritic cells were depending on the nanogels cloud point temperature (Tcp), which determines the phase transition of the nanoparticle. The study points to caveolae-mediated endocytosis as being the major tNGs uptake mechanism at 37 degrees C, which is above the Tcp of the tNGs. Remarkably, an additional uptake mechanism, beside caveolae-mediated endocytosis, was observed at 29 degrees C, which is the Tcp of the tNGs. At this temperature, which is characterized by two different states of the tNGs, macropinocytosis was involved as well. In summary, our study highlights the impact of thermoresponsivity on the cellular uptake mechanisms which has to be taken into account if the tNGs are used as a drug delivery system.