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The general warming trend of the last deglaciation was interrupted by the Younger Dryas, a period of abrupt cooling and widespread environmental change(1-10). Ice core records suggest the abrupt cooling began 12,846 years ago in Greenland(10), about 170 years before the significant environmental and vegetation change in western Europe(7) classically defined as the Younger Dryas. However, this difference in timing falls within age model uncertainties. Here we use the hydrogen isotope composition of lipid biomarkers from precisely dated varved sediments from Lake Meerfelder Maar to reconstruct hydroclimate over western Europe. We observe a decrease in the hydrogen isotope values of both aquatic and terrestrial lipids 12,850 years ago, indicating cooling climate in this region synchronous with the abrupt cooling in Greenland. A second drop occurs 170 years later, mainly in the hydrogen isotope record of aquatic lipids but to a lesser extent in the terrestrial lipids, which we attribute to aridification, as well as a change in moisture source and pathway. We thus confirm that there was indeed a lag between cooling and substantial hydrologic and environmental change in western Europe. We suggest the delay is related to the expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic Ocean and the subsequent southward migration of the westerly wind system(9). We further suggest that these hydrological changes amplified environmental change in western Europe at the onset of the Younger Dryas.
Eolian dust is a significant source of iron and other nutrients that are essential for the health of marine ecosystems and potentially a controlling factor of the high nutrient-low chlorophyll status of the Subarctic North Pacific. We map the spatial distribution of dust input using three different geochemical tracers of eolian dust, He-4, Th-232 and rare earth elements, in combination with grain size distribution data, from a set of core-top sediments covering the entire Subarctic North Pacific. Using the suite of geochemical proxies to fingerprint different lithogenic components, we deconvolve eolian dust input from other lithogenic inputs such as volcanic ash, ice-rafted debris, riverine and hemipelagic input. While the open ocean sites far away from the volcanic arcs are dominantly composed of pure eolian dust, lithogenic components other than eolian dust play a more crucial role along the arcs. In sites dominated by dust, eolian dust input appears to be characterized by a nearly uniform grain size mode at similar to 4 mu m.
Applying the Th-230-normalization technique, our proxies yield a consistent pattern of uniform dust fluxes of 1-2 g/m(2)/yr across the Subarctic North Pacific. Elevated eolian dust fluxes of 2-4 g/m(2)/yr characterize the westernmost region off Japan and the southern Kurile Islands south of 45 degrees N and west of 165 degrees E along the main pathway of the westerly winds. The core-top based dust flux reconstruction is consistent with recent estimates based on dissolved thorium isotope concentrations in seawater from the Subarctic North Pacific. The dust flux pattern compares well with state-of-the-art dust model predictions in the western and central Subarctic North Pacific, but we find that dust fluxes are higher than modeled fluxes by 0.5-1 g/m(2)/yr in the northwest, northeast and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. Our results provide an important benchmark for biogeochemical models and a robust approach for downcore studies testing dust-induced iron fertilization of past changes in biological productivity in the Subarctic North Pacific.
Numerical simulation of fluid-flow processes in a 3D high-resolution carbonate reservoir analogue
(2014)
A high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) outcrop model of a Jurassic carbonate ramp was used in order to perform a series of detailed and systematic flow simulations. The aim of this study was to test the impact of small- and large-scale geological features on reservoir performance and oil recovery. The digital outcrop model contains a wide range of sedimentological, diagenetic and structural features, including discontinuity surfaces, shoal bodies, mud mounds, oyster bioherms and fractures. Flow simulations are performed for numerical well testing and secondary oil recovery. Numerical well testing enables synthetic but systematic pressure responses to be generated for different geological features observed in the outcrops. This allows us to assess and rank the relative impact of specific geological features on reservoir performance. The outcome documents that, owing to the realistic representation of matrix heterogeneity, most diagenetic and structural features cannot be linked to a unique pressure signature. Instead, reservoir performance is controlled by subseismic faults and oyster bioherms acting as thief zones. Numerical simulations of secondary recovery processes reveal strong channelling of fluid flow into high-permeability layers as the primary control for oil recovery. However, appropriate reservoir-engineering solutions, such as optimizing well placement and injection fluid, can reduce channelling and increase oil recovery.
Carbonate reservoirs pose significant challenges for reservoir modelling and flow prediction due to heterogeneities in rock properties, limits to seismic resolution and limited constraints on subsurface data. Hence, a systematic and streamlined approach is needed to construct geological models and to quickly evaluate key sensitivities in the flow models. This paper discusses results from a reservoir analogue study of a Middle Jurassic carbonate ramp in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco that has stratigraphic and structural similarities to selected Middle East reservoirs. For this purpose, high-resolution geological models were constructed from the integration of sedimentological, diagenetic and structural studies in the area. The models are approximately 1200 x 1250 m in size, and only faults (no fractures) with offsets greater than 1 m are included. Novel methods have been applied to test the response of flow simulations to the presence or absence of specific geological features, including proxies for hardgrounds, stylolites, patch reefs, and mollusc banks, as a way to guide the level of detail that is suitable for modelling objectives. Our general conclusion from the study is that the continuity of any geological feature with extreme permeability (high or low) has the most significant impact on flow.
Whilst sophisticated multiphase fluid flow models are routinely employed to understand behaviour of oil and gas reservoirs, high-resolution data describing the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of rock characteristics is rarely available to populate models. We present a new approach to developing a quantitative understanding of the effect of individual controls on the distribution of petrophysical properties and their impact on fluid flow. This involves simulating flow through high-detail permeability architectures generated by forward modelling of the coupled depositional-diagenetic evolution of isolated platforms using CARB3D(+). This workflow is exemplified by an investigation of interactions between subsidence and climate, and their expression in spatial variations in reservoir quality in an isolated carbonate platform of similar size and subsidence history to the Triassic Latemar Platform.
Dissolutional lowering during subaerial exposure controls platform-top graininess via platform top hydrodynamics during the subsequent transgression. Dissolved carbonate is reprecipitated as cements by percolating meteoric waters. However, associated subsurface meteoric dissolution generates significant secondary porosity under a more humid climate. Slower subsidence enhances diagenetic overprinting during repeated exposure events. Single-phase streamline simulations show how early diagenesis develops more permeable fairways within the finer-grained condensed units that can act as thief zones for flow from the grainier but less diagenetically altered cyclic units.
Lacustrine sediments have been widely used to investigate past climatic and environmental changes on millennial to seasonal time scales. Sedimentary archives of lakes in mountainous regions may also record non-climatic events such as earthquakes. We argue herein that a set of 64 annual laminae couplets reconciles a stratigraphically inconsistent accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) C-14 chronology in a similar to 4-m-long sediment core from Lake Mengda, in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. The laminations suggest the lake was formed by a large landslide, triggered by the 1927 Gulang earthquake (M = 8.0). The lake sediment sequence can be separated into three units based on lithologic, sedimentary, and isotopic characteristics. Starting from the bottom of the sequence, these are: (1) unweathered, coarse, sandy valley-floor deposits or landslide debris that pre-date the lake, (2) landslide-induced, fine-grained soil or reworked landslide debris with a high organic content, and (3) lacustrine sediments with low organic content and laminations. These annual laminations provide a high-resolution record of anthropogenic and environmental changes during the twentieth century, recording enhanced sediment input associated with two phases of construction activities. The high mean sedimentation rates of up to 4.8 mm year(-1) underscore the potential for reconstructing such distinct sediment pulses in remote, forested, and seemingly undisturbed mountain catchments.
The Tibetan Plateau is a region that is highly sensitive to recent global warming, but the complexity and heterogeneity of its mountainous landscape can result in variable responses. In addition, the scarcity and brevity of regional instrumental and palaeoecological records still hamper our understanding of past and present patterns of environmental change. To investigate how the remote, high-alpine environments of the Nianbaoyeze Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau, are affected by climate change and human activity over the last similar to 600 years, we compared regional tree-ring studies with pollen and diatom remains archived in the dated sediments of Dongerwuka Lake (33.22A degrees N, 101.12A degrees E, 4,307 m a.s.l.). In agreement with previous studies from the eastern Tibetan Plateau, a strong coherence between our two juniper-based tree-ring chronologies from the Nianbaoyeze and the Anemaqin Mountains was observed, with pronounced cyclical variations in summer temperature reconstructions. A positive directional trend to warmer summer temperatures in the most recent decades, was, however, not observed in the tree-ring record. Likewise, our pollen and diatom spectra showed minimal change over the investigated time period. Although modest, the most notable change in the diatom relative abundances was a subtle decrease in the dominant planktonic Cyclotella ocellata and a concurrent increase in small, benthic fragilarioid taxa in the similar to 1820s, suggesting higher ecosystem variability. The pollen record subtly indicates three periods of increased cattle grazing activity (similar to 1400-1480 AD, similar to 1630-1760 AD, after 1850 AD), but shows generally no significant vegetation changes during past similar to 600 years. The minimal changes observed in the tree-ring, diatom and pollen records are consistent with the presence of localised cooling centres that are evident in instrumental and tree-ring data within the southeastern and eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given the minor changes in regional temperature records, our complacent palaeoecological profiles suggest that climatically induced ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains region.
A geological feature in the Qaidam Basin known as the "Shell Bar" contains millions of freshwater clam shells buried in situ. Since the 1980s, this feature in the now hyper-arid basin has been interpreted to be lake deposits that provide evidence for a warmer and more humid climate than present during late marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3). Global climate during late MIS 3 and the last glacial maximum, however, was cold and dry, with much lower sea levels. We re-investigated the feature geomorphologically and sedimentologically, and employed optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to verify the chronology of the sediments. We interpret the Shell Bar to be a remnant of a river channel formed by a stream that ran across an exposed lake bed during a regressive lake phase. Deflation of the surrounding older, fine-grained lacustrine deposits has left the fluvial channel sediments topographically inverted, indicating the erosive nature of the landscape. Luminescence ages place the formation of the Shell Bar in MIS 5 (similar to 113-99 ka), much older than previous radiocarbon ages of < 40 ka BP, but place the paleoclimatic inferences more in accord with other regional and global climate proxy records. We present a brief review of the age differences derived from C-14 and OSL dating of some critical sections that were thought to represent a warmer and more humid climate than present during late MIS 3. We attribute the differences to underestimation of C-14 ages. We suggest that C-14 ages older than similar to 25 ka BP may require re-investigation, especially dates on samples from arid regions.
The Shell Bar in the Qaidam Basin, China, is a prominent geological feature composed of millions of densely packed Corbicula shells. Since the mid 1980s, it has been regarded as evidence for existence of a large lake during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 in the presently hyper-arid Qaidam Basin. Early studies suggested the bivalve shells accumulated at the shore of a large lake, whereas more recent work led to the conclusion that the Shell Bar was formed within a deeper water body. Based on our re-assessment of sediments and fossils from the Shell Bar, investigation of exposed fluvio-lacustrine sections upstream of the Shell Bar and study of nearby modern streams, we infer that the Shell Bar represents a stream deposit. Corbicula is a typical stream-dweller around the world. Preservation of Corbicula shells of different sizes, as well as occurrence of many articulated shells, provide evidence against post-mortem transport and accumulation along a lake shore. Additionally, the SE-NW alignment of the Shell Bar is similar to modern intermittent stream beds in its vicinity and corresponds to the present-day slope towards the basin centre further NW, and furthermore, the predominantly sandy sediments also indicate that the Shell Bar was formed in a stream. Abundant ostracod shells in the Shell Bar sediments originated from stream-dwelling species that are abundant in modern streams in the vicinity of the Shell Bar, or in part from fluvio-lacustrine sediments exposed upstream of the Shell Bar, as a result of erosion and re-deposition. Deflation of alluvial fine-grained sediments in the Shell Bar region and protection of the stream deposits by the large and thick-walled Corbicula shells reversed the former channel relief and yielded the modern exposure, which is a prominent morphological feature. Occurrence of Corbicula shells in the Qaidam Basin indicates climate was apparently warmer than present during the formation of the Shell Bar because Corbicula does not live at similar or higher altitudes in the region today. Because the Shell Bar is no longer considered a deposit formed within a lake, its presence does not indicate paleoclimate conditions wetter than today.
Aim To understand the role and significance of the reindeer, Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758), as a specific indicator in terms of late Quaternary biogeography and to determine the effects of global climate change on its range and local extinction dynamics at the end of the Ice Age.
Location Late Pleistocene/early Holocene range of reindeer over all of central and western Europe, including southern Scandinavia and northern Iberia, but excluding Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine.
Methods Radiocarbon-dated subfossil records of R. tarandus from both archaeological and natural deposits younger than 25,000 years were assembled in a database. The distribution area was divided into six representative regions. The C-14 dates were calibrated and plotted chronologically in maps in order to compare presence and absence and regional extinction patterns from one region to another.
Main conclusions The late Quaternary record for reindeer in Europe during the last 25 kyr shows a climate-driven dispersal and retreat in response to climate change, with regional variations. The collapse of the mammoth steppe biome did not lead to the local extinction in Europe, as in the case of other megafaunal species. Rangifer tarandus co-existed for about 3000 years during the Late Glacial and early Holocene with typical temperate species such as red deer and roe deer in non-analogue faunal communities. The regional extinction at the end of the Pleistocene coincides with the transition from light open birch/pine forests to pine/deciduous forests.
For a detailed characterization of near-surface environments, geophysical techniques are increasingly used to support more conventional point-based techniques such as borehole and direct-push logging. Because the underlying parameter relations are often complex, site-specific, or even poorly understood, a remaining challenging task is to link the geophysical parameter models to the actual geotechnical target parameters measured only at selected points. We propose a workflow based on nonparametric regression to establish functional relationships between jointly inverted geophysical parameters and selected geotechnical parameters as measured, for example, by different borehole and direct-push tools. To illustrate our workflow, we present field data collected to characterize a near-surface sedimentary environment Our field data base includes crosshole ground penetrating radar (GPR), seismic P-, and S-wave data sets collected between 25 m deep boreholes penetrating sand- and gravel dominated sediments. Furthermore, different typical borehole and direct-push logs are available. We perform a global joint inversion of traveltimes extracted from the crosshole geophysical data using a recently proposed approach based on particle swarm optimization. Our inversion strategy allows for generating consistent models of GPR, P-wave, and S-wave velocities including an appraisal of uncertainties. We analyze the observed complex relationships between geophysical velocities and target parameter logs using the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) algorithm. This nonparametric statistical tool allows us to perform multivariate regression analysis without assuming a specific functional relation between the variables. We are able to explain selected target parameters such as characteristic grain size values or natural gamma activity by our inverted geophysical data and to extrapolate these parameters to the inter-borehole plane covered by our crosshole experiments. We conclude that the ACE algorithm is a powerful tool to analyze a multivariate petrophysical data base and to develop an understanding of how a multi-parameter geophysical model can be linked and translated to selected geotechnical parameters.
This paper presents a Bayesian non-parametric method based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression to derive ground-motion models for peak-ground parameters and response spectral ordinates. Due to its non-parametric nature there is no need to specify any fixed functional form as in parametric regression models. A GP defines a distribution over functions, which implicitly expresses the uncertainty over the underlying data generating process. An advantage of GP regression is that it is possible to capture the whole uncertainty involved in ground-motion modeling, both in terms of aleatory variability as well as epistemic uncertainty associated with the underlying functional form and data coverage. The distribution over functions is updated in a Bayesian way by computing the posterior distribution of the GP after observing ground-motion data, which in turn can be used to make predictions. The proposed GP regression models is evaluated on a subset of the RESORCE data base for the SIGMA project. The experiments show that GP models have a better generalization error than a simple parametric regression model. A visual assessment of different scenarios demonstrates that the inferred GP models are physically plausible.
This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.
The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations and Heinrich events described in North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice are expressed in the climate of the tropics, for example, as documented in Arabian Sea sediments. Given the strength of this teleconnection, we seek to reconstruct its range of environmental impacts. We present geochemical and sedimentological data from core SO130-289KL from the Indus submarine slope spanning the last similar to 80 kyr. Elemental and grain size analyses consistently indicate that interstadials are characterized by an increased contribution of fluvial suspension from the Indus River. In contrast, stadials are characterized by an increased contribution of aeolian dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Decadal-scale shifts at climate transitions, such as onsets of interstadials, were coeval with changes in productivity-related proxies. Heinrich events stand out as especially dry and dusty events, indicating a dramatically weakened Indian summer monsoon, potentially increased winter monsoon circulation, and increased aridity on the Arabian Peninsula. This finding is consistent with other paleoclimate evidence for continental aridity in the northern tropics during these events. Our results strengthen the evidence that circum-North Atlantic temperature variations translate to hydrological shifts in the tropics, with major impacts on regional environmental conditions such as rainfall, river discharge, aeolian dust transport, and ocean margin anoxia.
New low-temperature thermochronological data from 80 samples in eastern Kyrgyzstan are combined with previously published data from 61 samples to constrain exhumation in a number of mountain ranges in the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan. All sampled ranges are found to have a broadly consistent Cenozoic exhumation history, characterized by initially low cooling rates (<1 degrees C/Myr) followed by a series of increases in exhumation that occurred diachronously across the region in the late Cenozoic that are interpreted to record the onset of deformation in different mountain ranges. Combined with geological estimates for the onset of proximal deformation, our data suggest that the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan started deforming in the late Oligocene-early Miocene, leading to the development of several, widely spaced mountain ranges separated by large intermontane basins. Subsequently, more ranges have been constructed in response to significant shortening increases across the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan, notably in the late Miocene. The order of range construction is interpreted to reflect variations in the susceptibility of inherited structures to reactivation. Reactivated structures are also shown to have significance along strike variations in fault vergence and displacement, which have influenced the development and growth of individual mountain ranges. Moreover, the timing of deformation allows the former extent of many intermontane basins that have since been partitioned to be inferred; this can be linked to the highly time-transgressive onset of late Cenozoic coarse clastic sedimentation.
Soils in various places of the Panama Canal Watershed feature a low saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at shallow depth, which promotes overland-flow generation and associated flashy catchment responses. In undisturbed forests of these areas, overland flow is concentrated in flow lines that extend the channel network and provide hydrological connectivity between hillslopes and streams. To understand the dynamics of overland-flow connectivity, as well as the impact of connectivity on catchment response, we studied an undisturbed headwater catchment by monitoring overland-flow occurrence in all flow lines and discharge, suspended sediment, and total phosphorus at the catchment outlet. We find that connectivity is strongly influenced by seasonal variation in antecedent wetness and can develop even under light rainfall conditions. Connectivity increased rapidly as rainfall frequency increased, eventually leading to full connectivity and surficial drainage of entire hillslopes. Connectivity was nonlinearly related to catchment response. However, additional information on factors such as overland-flow volume would be required to constrain relationships between connectivity, stormflow, and the export of suspended sediment and phosphorus. The effort to monitor those factors would be substantial, so we advocate applying the established links between rain event characteristics, drainage network expansion by flow lines, and catchment response for predictive modeling and catchment classification in forests of the Panama Canal Watershed and in similar regions elsewhere.
Garnet brought to the surface by late Miocene granitoids at La Galite Archipelago (Central Mediterranean, Tunisia) contains abundant primary melt and fluid inclusions. Microstructural observations and mineral chemistry define the host garnet as a peritectic phase produced by biotite incongruent melting at ~800 degrees C and 0.5GPa, under fluid-present conditions. The trapped melt is leucogranitic with an unexpected metaluminous and almost peralkaline character. Fluid inclusions are one phase at room temperature, and contain a CO2-dominated fluid, with minor H2O, N-2 and CH4. Siderite and an OH-bearing phase were identified by Raman and IR spectroscopy within every analysed inclusion, and are interpreted as products of a post-entrapment carbonation/hydration reaction between the fluid and the host during cooling. The fluid present during anatexis is therefore inferred to have been originally richer in both H2O and CO2. The production of anatectic melt with a metaluminous signature can be explained as the result of partial melting of relatively Al-poor protoliths assisted by CO2-rich fluids.
Erosion in the Himalaya is responsible for one of the greatest mass redistributions on Earth and has fueled models of feedback loops between climate and tectonics. Although the general trends of erosion across the Himalaya are reasonably well known, the relative importance of factors controlling erosion is less well constrained. Here we present 25 Be-10-derived catchment-averaged erosion rates from the Yamuna catchment in the Garhwal Himalaya, northern India. Tributary erosion rates range between similar to 0.1 and 0.5mmyr(-1) in the Lesser Himalaya and similar to 1 and 2mmyr(-1) in the High Himalaya, despite uniform hillslope angles. The erosion-rate data correlate with catchment-averaged values of 5 km radius relief, channel steepness indices, and specific stream power but to varying degrees of nonlinearity. Similar nonlinear relationships and coefficients of determination suggest that topographic steepness is the major control on the spatial variability of erosion and that twofold to threefold differences in annual runoff are of minor importance in this area. Instead, the spatial distribution of erosion in the study area is consistent with a tectonic model in which the rock uplift pattern is largely controlled by the shortening rate and the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). Our data support a shallow dip of the MHT underneath the Lesser Himalaya, followed by a midcrustal ramp underneath the High Himalaya, as indicated by geophysical data. Finally, analysis of sample results from larger main stem rivers indicates significant variability of Be-10-derived erosion rates, possibly related to nonproportional sediment supply from different tributaries and incomplete mixing in main stem channels.
The Norwegian traffic network is impacted by about 2000 landslides, avalanches, and debris flows each year that incur high economic losses. Despite the urgent need to mitigate future losses, efforts to locate potential debris flow source areas have been rare at the regional scale. We tackle this research gap by exploring a minimal set of possible topographic predictors of debris flow initiation that we input to a Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) model for mapping the regional susceptibility to debris flows in western Norway. We use an inventory of 429 debris flows that were recorded between 1979 and 2008, and use the terrain variables of slope, total curvature, and contributing area (flow accumulation) to compute the posterior probabilities of local debris flow occurrence. The novelty of our approach is that we quantify the uncertainties in the WofE approach arising from different predictor classification schemes and data input, while estimating model accuracy and predictive performance from independent test data. Our results show that a percentile-based classification scheme excels over a manual classification of the predictor variables because differing abundances in manually defined bins reduce the reliability of the conditional independence tests, a key, and often neglected, prerequisite for the WofE method. The conditional dependence between total curvature and flow accumulation precludes their joint use in the model. Slope gradient has the highest true positive rate (88%), although the fraction of area classified as susceptible is very large (37%). The predictive performance, i.e. the reduction of false positives, is improved when combined with either total curvature or flow accumulation. Bootstrapping shows that the combination of slope and flow accumulation provides more reliable predictions than the combination of slope and total curvature, and helps refining the use of slope-area plots for identifying morphometric fingerprints of debris flow source areas, an approach used outside the field of landslide susceptibility assessments.