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A local and flexible definition of the monsoon season based on hydrological evidence is important for the understanding and management of Himalayan water resources. Here, we present an objective statistical method to retrieve seasonal hydrometeorological transitions. Applied to daily rainfall data (1951-2015), this method shows an average longitudinal delay of similar to 15 days, with later monsoon onset and earlier withdrawal in the western Himalaya, consistent with the continental progression of wet air masses. This delay leads to seasons of different length along the Himalaya and biased precipitation amounts when using uniform calendric monsoon boundaries. In the Central Himalaya annual precipitation has increased, due primarily to an increase of premonsoon precipitation. These findings highlight issues associated with a static definition of monsoon boundaries and call for a deeper understanding of nonmonsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan water tower. <br /> Plain Language Summary Precipitation in the Himalayas determines water availability for the Indian foreland with large socioeconomic implications. Despite its importance, spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation are poorly understood. Here, we estimate the long-term average and trends of seasonal precipitation at the scale of individual catchments draining the Himalayas. We apply a statistical method to detect the timing of hydrometeorological seasons from local precipitation measurements, focusing on monsoon onset and withdrawal. We identify longitudinal and latitudinal delays, resulting in seasons of different length along and across the Himalayas. These spatial patterns and the annual variability of the monsoon boundaries mean that oft-used, fixed calendric dates, for example, 1 June to 30 September, may be inadequate for retrieving monsoon rainfall totals. Moreover, we find that, despite its prominent contribution to annual rainfall totals, the Indian summer monsoon cannot explain the increase of the annual precipitation over the Central Himalayas. Instead, this appears to be mostly driven by changes in premonsoon and winter rainfall. So far, little attention has been paid to premonsoon precipitation, but governed by evaporative processes and surface water availability, it may be enhanced by irrigation and changed land use in the Gangetic foreland.
Compound natural hazards likeEl Ninoevents cause high damage to society, which to manage requires reliable risk assessments. Damage modelling is a prerequisite for quantitative risk estimations, yet many procedures still rely on expert knowledge, and empirical studies investigating damage from compound natural hazards hardly exist. A nationwide building survey in Peru after theEl Ninoevent 2017 - which caused intense rainfall, ponding water, flash floods and landslides - enables us to apply data-mining methods for statistical groundwork, using explanatory features generated from remote sensing products and open data. We separate regions of different dominant characteristics through unsupervised clustering, and investigate feature importance rankings for classifying damage via supervised machine learning. Besides the expected effect of precipitation, the classification algorithms select the topographic wetness index as most important feature, especially in low elevation areas. The slope length and steepness factor ranks high for mountains and canyons. Partial dependence plots further hint at amplified vulnerability in rural areas. An example of an empirical damage probability map, developed with a random forest model, is provided to demonstrate the technical feasibility.
Orogenic peridotites represent portions of upper subcontinental mantle now incorporated in mountain belts. They often contain layers, lenses and irregular bodies of pyroxenite and eclogite. The origin of this heterogeneity and the nature of these layers is still debated but it is likely to involve processes such as transient melts coming from the crust or the mantle and segregating in magma conduits, crust-mantle interaction, upwelling of the asthenosphere and metasomatism. All these processes occur in the lithospheric mantle and are often related with the subduction of crustal rocks to mantle depths. In fact, during subduction, fluids and melts are released from the slab and can interact with the overlying mantle, making the study of deep melts in this environment crucial to understand mantle heterogeneity and crust-mantle interaction. The aim of this thesis is precisely to better constrain how such processes take place studying directly the melt trapped as primary inclusions in pyroxenites and eclogites. The Bohemian Massif, crystalline core of the Variscan belt, is targeted for these purposes because it contains orogenic peridotites with layers of pyroxenite and eclogite and other mafic rocks enclosed in felsic high pressure and ultra-high pressure crustal rocks. Within this Massif mafic rocks from two areas have been selected: the garnet clinopyroxenite in orogenic peridotite of the Granulitgebirge and the ultra-high pressure eclogite in the diamond-bearing gneisses of the Erzgebirge. In both areas primary melt inclusions were recognized in the garnet, ranging in size between 2-25 µm and with different degrees of crystallization, from glassy to polycrystalline. They have been investigated with Micro Raman spectroscopy and EDS mapping and the mineral assemblage is kumdykolite, phlogopite, quartz, kokchetavite, phase with a main Raman peak at 430 cm-1, phase with a main Raman peak at 412 cm-1, white mica and calcite with some variability in relative abundance depending on the case study. In the Granulitgebirge osumilite and pyroxene are also present, whereas calcite is one of the main phases in the Erzgebirge. The presence of glass and the mineral assemblage in the nanogranitoids suggest that they were former droplets of melt trapped in the garnet while it was growing. Glassy inclusions and re-homogenized nanogranitoids show a silicate melt that is granitic, hydrous, high in alkalis and weakly peraluminous. The melt is also enriched in both case studies in Cs, Pb, Rb, U, Th, Li and B suggesting the involvement of crustal component, i.e. white mica (main carrier of Cs, Pb, Rb, Li and B), and a fluid (Cs, Th and U) in the melt producing reaction. The whole rock in both cases mainly consists of garnet and clinopyroxene with, in Erzgebirge samples, the additional presence of quartz both in the matrix and as a polycrystalline inclusion in the garnet. The latter is interpreted as a quartz pseudomorph after coesite and occurs in the same microstructural position as the melt inclusions. Both rock types show a crustal and subduction zone signature with garnet and clinopyroxene in equilibrium. Melt was likely present during the metamorphic peak of the rock, as it occurs in garnet.
Our data suggest that the processes most likely responsible for the formation of the investigated rocks in both areas is a metasomatic reaction between a melt produced in the crust and mafic layers formerly located in the mantle wedge for the Granulitgebirge and in the subducted continental crust itself in the Erzgebirge. Thus metasomatism in the first case took place in the mantle overlying the slab, whereas in the second case metasomatism took place in the continental crust that already contained, before subduction, mafic layers. Moreover, the presence of former coesite in the same microstructural position of the melt inclusions in the Erzgebirge garnets suggest that metasomatism took place at ultra-high pressure conditions.
Summarizing, in this thesis we provide new insights into the geodynamic evolution of the Bohemian Massif based on the study of melt inclusions in garnet in two different mafic rock types, combining the direct microstructural and geochemical investigation of the inclusions with the whole-rock and mineral geochemistry. We report for the first time data, directly extracted from natural rocks, on the metasomatic melt responsible for the metasomatism of several areas of the Bohemian Massif. Besides the two locations here investigated, belonging to the Saxothuringian Zone, a signature similar to the investigated melt is clearly visible in pyroxenite and peridotite of the T-7 borehole (again Saxothuringian Zone) and the durbachite suite located in the Moldanubian Zone.
Carbonates play a key role in the chemistry and dynamics of our planet. They are directly connected to the CO2 budget of our atmosphere and have a great impact on the deep carbon cycle. Moreover, recent studies have shown that carbonates are stable along the geothermal gradient down to Earth's lower mantle conditions, changing their crystal structure and related properties. Subducted carbonates may also react with silicates to form new phases. These reactions will redistribute elements, such as calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe) and carbon in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2), but also trace elements, that are carried by the carbonates. The trace elements of most interest are strontium (Sr) and rare earth elements (REE) which have been found to be important constituents in the composition of the primitive lower mantle and in mineral inclusions found in super-deep diamonds. However, the stability of carbonates in presence of mantle silicates at relevant temperatures is far from being well understood. Related to this, very little is known about distribution processes of trace elements between carbonates and mantle silicates. To shed light on these processes, we studied reactions between Sr- and REE-containing CaCO3 and Mg/Fe-bearing silicates of the system (Mg,Fe)2SiO4 - (Mg,Fe)SiO3 at high pressure and high temperature using synchrotron radiation based μ-X-ray diffraction (μ-XRD) and μ-X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) with μm-resolution in a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. X-ray diffraction is used to derive the structural changes of the phase reactions whereas X-ray fluorescence gives information on the chemical changes in the sample. In-situ experiments at high pressure and high temperature were performed at beamline P02.2 at PETRA III (Hamburg, Germany) and at beamline ID27 at ESRF (Grenoble, France). In addition to μ-XRD and μ-XRF, ex-situ measurements were made on the recovered sample material using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and provided further insights into the reaction kinetics of carbonate-silicate reactions.
Our investigations show that CaCO3 is unstable in presence of mantle silicates above 1700 K and a reaction takes place in which magnesite plus CaSiO3-perovskite are formed. In addition, we observed that a high content of iron in the carbonate-silicate system favours dolomite formation during the reaction. The subduction of natural carbonates with significant amounts of Sr leads to a comprehensive investigation of the stability not only of CaCO3 phases in contact with mantle silicates but also of SrCO3 (and of Sr-bearing CaCO3). We found that SrCO3 reacts with (Mg,Fe)SiO3-perovskite to form magnesite and gained evidence for the formation of SrSiO3-perovskite.
To complement our study on the stability of SrCO3 at conditions of the Earth's lower mantle, we performed powder X-ray diffraction and single crystal X-ray diffraction experiments at ambient temperature and up to 49 GPa. We observed a transformation from SrCO3-I into a new high-pressure phase SrCO3-II at around 26 GPa with Pmmn crystal structure and a bulk modulus of 103(10) GPa. This information is essential to fully understand the phase behaviour and stability of carbonates in the Earth's lower mantle and to elucidate the possibility of introducing Sr into mantle silicates by carbonate-silicate reactions.
Simultaneous recording of μ-XRD and μ-XRF in the μm-range over the heated areas provides spatial information not only about phase reactions but also on the elemental redistribution during the reactions. A comparison of the spatial intensity distribution of the XRF signal before and after heating indicates a change in the elemental distribution of Sr and an increase in Sr-concentration was found around the newly formed SrSiO3-perovskite. With the help of additional TEM analyses on the quenched sample material the elemental redistribution was studied at a sub-micrometer scale. Contrary to expectations from combined μ-XRD and μ-XRF measurements, we found that La and Eu were not incorporated into the silicate phases, instead they tend to form either isolated oxide phases (e.g. Eu2O3, La2O3) or hydroxyl-bastnäsite (La(CO3)(OH)). In addition, we observed the transformation from (Mg,Fe)SiO3-perovskite to low-pressure clinoenstatite during pressure release. The monoclinic structure (P21/c) of this phase allows the incorporation of Ca as shown by additional EDX analyses and, to a minor extent, Sr too.
Based on our experiments, we can conclude that a detection of the trace elements in-situ at high pressure and high temperature remains challenging. However, our first findings imply that silicates may incorporate the trace elements provided by the carbonates and indicate that carbonates may have a major effect on the trace element contents of mantle phases.
Analysis of past and present stimulation projects reveals that the temporal evolution and growth of maximum observed moment magnitudes may be linked directly to the injected fluid volume and hydraulic energy. Overall evolution of seismic moment seems independent of the tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. Data suggest that magnitudes can grow either in a stable way, indicating the constant propagation of self-arrested ruptures, or unbound, for which the maximum magnitude is only limited by the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. Transition between the two states may occur at any time during injection or not at all. Monitoring and traffic light systems used during stimulations need to account for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution in near-real time and at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy.
Plain Language Summary Predicting and controlling the size of earthquakes caused by fluid injection is currently the major concern of many projects associated with geothermal energy production. Here, we analyze the magnitude and seismic moment evolution with injection parameters for prominent geothermal and scientific projects to date. Evolution of seismicity seems to be largely independent of the tectonic stress background and seemingly depends on reservoir specific characteristics. We find that the maximum observed magnitudes relate linearly to the injected volume or hydraulic energy. A linear relation suggests stable growth of induced ruptures, as predicted by current models, or rupture growth may no longer depend on the stimulated volume but on tectonics. A system may change between the two states during the course of fluid injection. Close-by and high-resolution monitoring of seismic and hydraulic parameters in near-real time may help identify these fundamental changes in ample time to change injection strategy and manage maximum magnitudes.
In the comment on "Varves of the Dead Sea sedimentary record." Quaternary Science Reviews 215 (Ben Dor et al., 2019): 173-184. by R. Bookman, two recently published papers are suggested to prove that the interpretation of the laminated sedimentary sequence of the Dead Sea, deposited mostly during MIS2 and Holocene pluvials, as annual deposits (i.e., varves) is wrong. In the following response, we delineate several lines of evidence which coalesce to demonstrate that based on the vast majority of evidence, including some of the evidence provided in the comment itself, the interpretation of these sediments as varves is the more likely scientific conclusion. We further discuss the evidence brought up in the comment and its irrelevance and lack of robustness for addressing the question under discussion.
The Southern Central Andes (33°-36°S) are an excellent natural laboratory to study orogenic deformation processes, where boundary conditions, such as the geometry of the subducted plate, impose an important control on the evolution of the orogen. On the other hand, the South American plate presents a series of heterogeneities that additionally impart control on the mode of deformation. This thesis aims to test the control of this last factor over the construction of the Cenozoic Andean orogenic system.
From the integration of surface and subsurface information in the southern area (34-36°S), the evolution of Andean deformation over the steeply dipping subduction segment was studied. A structural model was developed evaluating the stress state from the Miocene to the present-day and its influence in the migration of magmatic fluids and hydrocarbons. Based on these data, together with the data generated by other researchers in the northern zone of the study area (33-34°S), geodynamic numerical modeling was performed to test the hypothesis of the decisive role of upper-plate heterogeneities in the Andean evolution. Geodynamic codes (LAPEX-2D and ASPECT) which simulate the behavior of materials with elasto-visco-plastic rheologies under deformation, were used. The model results suggest that upper-plate contractional deformation is significantly controlled by the strength of the lithosphere, which is defined by the composition of the upper and lower crust, and by the proportion of lithospheric mantle, which in turn is determined by previous tectonic events. In addition, the previous regional tectono-magmatic events also defined the composition of the crust and its geometry, which is another factor that controls the localization of deformation. Accordingly, with more felsic lower crustal composition, the deformation follows a pure-shear mode, while more mafic compositions induce a simple-shear deformation mode. On the other hand, it was observed that initial lithospheric thickness may fundamentally control the location of deformation, with zones characterized by thin lithosphere are prone to concentrate it. Finally, it was found that an asymmetric lithosphere-astenosphere boundary resulting from corner flow in the mantle wedge of the eastward-directed subduction zone tends to generate east-vergent detachments.
An effective strategy for combining variance- and distribution-based global sensitivity analysis
(2020)
We present a new strategy for performing global sensitivity analysis capable to estimate main and interaction effects from a generic sampling design. The new strategy is based on a meaningful combination of varianceand distribution-based approaches. The strategy is tested on four analytic functions and on a hydrological model. Results show that the analysis is consistent with the state-of-the-art Saltelli/Jansen formula but to better quantify the interaction effect between the input factors when the output distribution is skewed. Moreover, the estimation of the sensitivity indices is much more robust requiring a smaller number of simulations runs. Specific settings and alternative methods that can be integrated in the new strategy are also discussed. Overall, the strategy is considered as a new simple and effective tool for performing global sensitivity analysis that can be easily integrated in any environmental modelling framework.
The origins and development of the arid and highly seasonal steppe-desert biome in Central Asia, the largest of its kind in the world, remain largely unconstrained by existing records. It is unclear how Cenozoic climatic, geological, and biological forces, acting at diverse spatial and temporal scales, shaped Central Asian ecosystems through time. Our synthesis shows that the Central Asian steppe-desert has existed since at least Eocene times but experienced no less than two regime shifts, one at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and one in the mid-Miocene. These shifts separated three successive "stable states," each characterized by unique floral and faunal structures. Past responses to disturbance in the Asian steppe-desert imply that modern ecosystems are unlikely to recover their present structures and diversity if forced into a new regime. This is of concern for Asian steppes today, which are being modified for human use and lost to desertification at unprecedented rates.
Thirteen N-butylpyridinium salts, including three monometallic [C4Py](2)[MCl4], nine bimetallic [C4Py](2)[(M1-xMxCl4)-M-a-Cl-b] and one trimetallic compound [C4Py](2)[(M1-y-zMyMz (c) Cl4)-M-a-M-b] (M=Co, Cu, Mn; x=0.25, 0.50 or 0.75 and y=z=0.33), were synthesized and their structure and thermal and electrochemical properties were studied. All compounds are ionic liquids (ILs) with melting points between 69 and 93 degrees C. X-ray diffraction proves that all ILs are isostructural. The conductivity at room temperature is between 10(-4) and 10(-8) S cm(-1). Some Cu-based ILs reach conductivities of 10(-2) S cm(-1), which is, however, probably due to IL dec. This correlates with the optical bandgap measurements indicating the formation of large bandgap semiconductors. At elevated temperatures approaching the melting points, the conductivities reach up to 1.47x10(-1) S cm(-1) at 70 degrees C. The electrochemical stability windows of the ILs are between 2.5 and 3.0 V.
The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo-Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed 'mega-monsoon') that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2 center dot 4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red-green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.
Initiation of subduction following the impingement of a hot buoyant mantle plume is one of the few scenarios that allow breaking the lithosphere and recycling a stagnant lid without requiring any preexisting weak zones. Here, we investigate factors controlling the number and shape of retreating subducting slabs formed by plume-lithosphere interaction. Using 3-D thermomechanical models we show that the deformation regime, which defines formation of single-slab or multi-slab subduction, depends on several parameters such as age of oceanic lithosphere, thickness of the crust and large-scale lithospheric extension rate. Our model results indicate that on present-day Earth multi-slab plume-induced subduction is initiated only if the oceanic lithosphere is relatively young (<30-40 Myr, but >10 Myr), and the crust has a typical thickness of 8 km. In turn, development of single-slab subduction is facilitated by older lithosphere and pre-imposed extensional stresses. In early Earth, plume-lithosphere interaction could have led to formation of either episodic short-lived circular subduction when the oceanic lithosphere was young or to multi-slab subduction when the lithosphere was old.
It has recently been demonstrated that the interaction of a mantle plume with sufficiently old oceanic lithosphere can initiate subduction. However, the existence of large lithospheric heterogeneities, such as a buoyant plateau, in proximity to a rising plume head may potentially hinder the formation of a new subduction zone. Here, we investigate this scenario by means of 3-D numerical thermomechanical modeling. We explore how plume-lithosphere interaction is affected by lithospheric age, relative location of plume head and plateau border, and the strength of the oceanic crust. Our numerical experiments suggest four different geodynamic regimes: (a) oceanic trench formation, (b) circular oceanic-plateau trench formation, (c) plateau trench formation, and (d) no trench formation. We show that regardless of the age and crustal strength of the oceanic lithosphere, subduction can initiate when the plume head is either below the plateau border or at a distance less than the plume radius from the plateau edge. Crustal heterogeneity facilitates subduction initiation of old oceanic lithosphere. High crustal strength hampers the formation of a new subduction zone when the plume head is located below a young lithosphere containing a thick and strong plateau. We suggest that plume-plateau interaction in the western margin of the Caribbean could have resulted in subduction initiation when the plume head impinged onto the oceanic lithosphere close to the border between plateau and oceanic crust.
Initiation of subduction following the impingement of a hot buoyant mantle plume is one of the few scenarios that allow breaking the lithosphere and recycling a stagnant lid without requiring any preexisting weak zones. Here, we investigate factors controlling the number and shape of retreating subducting slabs formed by plume-lithosphere interaction. Using 3-D thermomechanical models we show that the deformation regime, which defines formation of single-slab or multi-slab subduction, depends on several parameters such as age of oceanic lithosphere, thickness of the crust and large-scale lithospheric extension rate. Our model results indicate that on present-day Earth multi-slab plume-induced subduction is initiated only if the oceanic lithosphere is relatively young (<30-40 Myr, but >10 Myr), and the crust has a typical thickness of 8 km. In turn, development of single-slab subduction is facilitated by older lithosphere and pre-imposed extensional stresses. In early Earth, plume-lithosphere interaction could have led to formation of either episodic short-lived circular subduction when the oceanic lithosphere was young or to multi-slab subduction when the lithosphere was old.
RainNet v1.0
(2020)
In this study, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting. Its design was inspired by the U-Net and SegNet families of deep learning models, which were originally designed for binary segmentation tasks. RainNet was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5min, using several years of quality-controlled weather radar composites provided by the German Weather Service (DWD). That data set covers Germany with a spatial domain of 900km × 900km and has a resolution of 1km in space and 5min in time. Independent verification experiments were carried out on 11 summer precipitation events from 2016 to 2017. In order to achieve a lead time of 1h, a recursive approach was implemented by using RainNet predictions at 5min lead times as model inputs for longer lead times. In the verification experiments, trivial Eulerian persistence and a conventional model based on optical flow served as benchmarks. The latter is available in the rainymotion library and had previously been shown to outperform DWD's operational nowcasting model for the same set of verification events.
RainNet significantly outperforms the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60min for the routine verification metrics mean absolute error (MAE) and the critical success index (CSI) at intensity thresholds of 0.125, 1, and 5mm h⁻¹. However, rainymotion turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (here 10 and 15mm h⁻¹). The limited ability of RainNet to predict heavy rainfall intensities is an undesirable property which we attribute to a high level of spatial smoothing introduced by the model. At a lead time of 5min, an analysis of power spectral density confirmed a significant loss of spectral power at length scales of 16km and below. Obviously, RainNet had learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5min lead time. In that sense, the loss of spectral power at small scales is informative, too, as it reflects the limits of predictability as a function of spatial scale. Beyond the lead time of 5min, however, the increasing level of smoothing is a mere artifact – an analogue to numerical diffusion – that is not a property of RainNet itself but of its recursive application. In the context of early warning, the smoothing is particularly unfavorable since pronounced features of intense precipitation tend to get lost over longer lead times. Hence, we propose several options to address this issue in prospective research, including an adjustment of the loss function for model training, model training for longer lead times, and the prediction of threshold exceedance in terms of a binary segmentation task. Furthermore, we suggest additional input data that could help to better identify situations with imminent precipitation dynamics. The model code, pretrained weights, and training data are provided in open repositories as an input for such future studies.
RainNet v1.0
(2020)
In this study, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting. Its design was inspired by the U-Net and SegNet families of deep learning models, which were originally designed for binary segmentation tasks. RainNet was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5min, using several years of quality-controlled weather radar composites provided by the German Weather Service (DWD). That data set covers Germany with a spatial domain of 900km × 900km and has a resolution of 1km in space and 5min in time. Independent verification experiments were carried out on 11 summer precipitation events from 2016 to 2017. In order to achieve a lead time of 1h, a recursive approach was implemented by using RainNet predictions at 5min lead times as model inputs for longer lead times. In the verification experiments, trivial Eulerian persistence and a conventional model based on optical flow served as benchmarks. The latter is available in the rainymotion library and had previously been shown to outperform DWD's operational nowcasting model for the same set of verification events.
RainNet significantly outperforms the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60min for the routine verification metrics mean absolute error (MAE) and the critical success index (CSI) at intensity thresholds of 0.125, 1, and 5mm h⁻¹. However, rainymotion turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (here 10 and 15mm h⁻¹). The limited ability of RainNet to predict heavy rainfall intensities is an undesirable property which we attribute to a high level of spatial smoothing introduced by the model. At a lead time of 5min, an analysis of power spectral density confirmed a significant loss of spectral power at length scales of 16km and below. Obviously, RainNet had learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5min lead time. In that sense, the loss of spectral power at small scales is informative, too, as it reflects the limits of predictability as a function of spatial scale. Beyond the lead time of 5min, however, the increasing level of smoothing is a mere artifact – an analogue to numerical diffusion – that is not a property of RainNet itself but of its recursive application. In the context of early warning, the smoothing is particularly unfavorable since pronounced features of intense precipitation tend to get lost over longer lead times. Hence, we propose several options to address this issue in prospective research, including an adjustment of the loss function for model training, model training for longer lead times, and the prediction of threshold exceedance in terms of a binary segmentation task. Furthermore, we suggest additional input data that could help to better identify situations with imminent precipitation dynamics. The model code, pretrained weights, and training data are provided in open repositories as an input for such future studies.
Uplift in the broken Andean foreland of the Argentine Santa Bárbara System (SBS) is associated with the contractional reactivation of basement anisotropies, similar to those reported from the thick-skinned Cretaceous-Eocene Laramide province of North America. Fault scarps, deformed Quaternary deposits and landforms, disrupted drainage patterns, and medium-sized earthquakes within the SBS suggest that movement along these structures may be a recurring phenomenon, with yet to be defined repeat intervals and rupture lengths. In contrast to the Subandes thrust belt farther north, where eastward-migrating deformation has generated a well-defined thrust front, the SBS records spatiotemporally disparate deformation along structures that are only known to the first order. We present herein the results of geomorphic desktop analyses, structural field observations, and 2D electrical resistivity tomography and seismic-refraction tomography surveys and an interpretation of seismic reflection profiles across suspected fault scarps in the sedimentary basins adjacent to the Candelaria Range (CR) basement uplift, in the south-central part of the SBS. Our analysis in the CR piedmont areas reveals consistency between the results of near-surface electrical resistivity and seismic-refraction tomography surveys, the locations of prominent fault scarps, and structural geometries at greater depth imaged by seismic reflection data. We suggest that this deformation is driven by deep-seated blind thrusting beneath the CR and associated regional warping, while shortening involving Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary strata in the adjacent basins was accommodated by layer-parallel folding and flexural-slip faults that cut through Quaternary landforms and deposits at the surface.
Uplift in the broken Andean foreland of the Argentine Santa Bárbara System (SBS) is associated with the contractional reactivation of basement anisotropies, similar to those reported from the thick-skinned Cretaceous-Eocene Laramide province of North America. Fault scarps, deformed Quaternary deposits and landforms, disrupted drainage patterns, and medium-sized earthquakes within the SBS suggest that movement along these structures may be a recurring phenomenon, with yet to be defined repeat intervals and rupture lengths. In contrast to the Subandes thrust belt farther north, where eastward-migrating deformation has generated a well-defined thrust front, the SBS records spatiotemporally disparate deformation along structures that are only known to the first order. We present herein the results of geomorphic desktop analyses, structural field observations, and 2D electrical resistivity tomography and seismic-refraction tomography surveys and an interpretation of seismic reflection profiles across suspected fault scarps in the sedimentary basins adjacent to the Candelaria Range (CR) basement uplift, in the south-central part of the SBS. Our analysis in the CR piedmont areas reveals consistency between the results of near-surface electrical resistivity and seismic-refraction tomography surveys, the locations of prominent fault scarps, and structural geometries at greater depth imaged by seismic reflection data. We suggest that this deformation is driven by deep-seated blind thrusting beneath the CR and associated regional warping, while shortening involving Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary strata in the adjacent basins was accommodated by layer-parallel folding and flexural-slip faults that cut through Quaternary landforms and deposits at the surface.
As the Arctic coast erodes, it drains thermokarst lakes, transforming them into lagoons, and, eventually, integrates them into subsea permafrost. Lagoons represent the first stage of a thermokarst lake transition to a marine setting and possibly more saline and colder upper boundary conditions. In this research, borehole data, electrical resistivity surveying, and modeling of heat and salt diffusion were carried out at Polar Fox Lagoon on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Polar Fox Lagoon is a seasonally isolated water body connected to Tiksi Bay through a channel, leading to hypersaline waters under the ice cover. The boreholes in the center of the lagoon revealed floating ice and a saline cryotic bed underlain by a saline cryotic talik, a thin ice-bearing permafrost layer, and unfrozen ground. The bathymetry showed that most of the lagoon had bedfast ice in spring. In bedfast ice areas, the electrical resistivity profiles suggested that an unfrozen saline layer was underlain by a thick layer of refrozen talik. The modeling showed that thermokarst lake taliks can refreeze when submerged in saltwater with mean annual bottom water temperatures below or slightly above 0 degrees C. This occurs, because the top-down chemical degradation of newly formed ice-bearing permafrost is slower than the refreezing of the talik. Hence, lagoons may precondition taliks with a layer of ice-bearing permafrost before encroachment by the sea, and this frozen layer may act as a cap on gas migration out of the underlying talik.