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Institute
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (551) (remove)
The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue.
Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.
The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as ‘animal welfare’ were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.
Nature-based solutions (NBS) are inspired and supported by nature but designed by humans. Historically, governmental stakeholders have aimed to control nature using a top-down approach; more recently, environmental governance has shifted to collaborative planning. Polycentric governance and co-creation procedures, which include a large spectrum of stakeholders, are assumed to be more effective in the management of public goods than traditional approaches. In this context, NBS projects should benefit from strong collaborative governance models, and the European Union is facilitating and encouraging such models. While some theoretical approaches exist, setting-up the NBS co-creation process (namely co-design and co-implementation) currently relies mostly on self-organized stakeholders rather than on strategic decisions. As such, systematic methods to identify relevant stakeholders seem to be crucial to enable higher planning efficiency, reduce bottlenecks and time needed for planning, designing, and implementing NBS. In this context, this contribution is based on the analysis of 16 NBS and 359 stakeholders. Real-life constellations are compared to theoretical typologies, and a systematic stakeholder mapping method to support co-creation is presented. Rather than making one-fit-all statements about the "right" stakeholders, the contribution provides insights for those "in charge" to strategically consider who might be involved at each stage of the NBS project.
We traced diatom composition and diversity through time using diatom-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) from eastern continental slope sediments off Kamchatka (North Pacific) by applying a short, diatom-specific marker on 63 samples in a DNA metabarcoding approach. The sequences were assigned to diatoms that are common in the area and characteristic of cold water. SedaDNA allowed us to observe shifts of potential lineages from species of the genus Chaetoceros that can be related to different climatic phases, suggesting that pre-adapted ecotypes might have played a role in the long-term success of species in areas of changing environmental conditions. These sedaDNA results complement our understanding of the long-term history of diatom assemblages and their general relationship to environmental conditions of the past. Sea-ice diatoms (Pauliella taeniata [Grunow] Round & Basson, Attheya septentrionalis [ostrup] R. M. Crawford and Nitzschia frigida [Grunow]) detected during the late glacial and Younger Dryas are in agreement with previous sea-ice reconstructions. A positive correlation between pennate diatom richness and the sea-ice proxy IP25 suggests that sea ice fosters pennate diatom richness, whereas a negative correlation with June insolation and temperature points to unfavorable conditions during the Holocene. A sharp increase in proportions of freshwater diatoms at similar to 11.1 cal kyr BP implies the influence of terrestrial runoff and coincides with the loss of 42% of diatom sequence variants. We assume that reduced salinity at this time stabilized vertical stratification which limited the replenishment of nutrients in the euphotic zone.
The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 % of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 % of them being resolved to species and 25.8 % to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations – after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 % of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.
The influence of land-use changes on soil hydraulic properties : implications for runoff generation
(2006)
Changes in soil hydraulic properties following ecosystem disturbances can become relevant for regional water cycles depending on the prevailing rainfall regime. In a tropical montane rainforest ecosystem in southern Ecuador, plot- scale investigations revealed that man-made disturbances were accompanied by a decrease in mean saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), whereas mean Ks of two different aged landslides was undistinguishable from the reference forest. Ks spatial structure weakened after disturbances in the topsoil. We used this spatial-temporal information combined with local rain intensities to assess the probability of impermeable soil layers under undisturbed, disturbed, and regenerating land-cover types. We furthermore compared the Ecuadorian man-made disturbance cycle with a similar land-use sequence in a tropical lowland rainforest region in Brazil. The studied montane rainforest is characterized by prevailing vertical flowpaths in the topsoil, whereas larger rainstorms in the study area potentially result in impermeable layers below 20 cm depth. In spite of the low frequency of such higher-intensity events, they transport a high portion of the annual runoff and may therefore significant for the regional water cycle. Hydrological flowpaths under two studied landslides are similar to the natural forest except for a somewhat higher probability of impermeable layer formation in the topsoil of the 2-year-old landslide. In contrast, human disturbances likely affect near-surface hydrology. Under a pasture and a young fallow, impermeable layers potentially develop already in the topsoil for larger rain events. A 10-year-old fallow indicates regeneration towards the original vertical flowpaths, though the land-use signal was still detectable. The consequences of land-cover change on near-surface hydrological behaviour are of similar magnitude in the tropical montane and the lowland rainforest region. This similarity can be explained by a more pronounced drop of soil permeability after pasture establishment in the montane rainforest region in spite of the prevailing much lower rain intensities.
The investigation of throughfall patterns has received considerable interest over the last decades. And yet, the geographical bias of pertinent previous studies and their methodologies and approaches to data analysis cast a doubt on the general validity of claims regarding spatial and temporal patterns of throughfall. We employed 220 collectors in a 1-ha plot of semideciduous tropical rain forest in Panama and sampled throughfall during a period of 14 months. Our analysis of spatial patterns is based on 60 data sets, whereas the temporal analysis comprises 91 events. Both data sets show skewed frequency distributions. When skewness arises from large outliers, the classical, nonrobust variogram estimator overestimates the sill variance and, in some cases, even induces spurious autocorrelation structures. In these situations, robust variogram estimation techniques offer a solution. Throughfall in our plot typically displayed no or only weak spatial autocorrelations. In contrast, temporal correlations were strong, that is, wet and dry locations persisted over consecutive wet seasons. Interestingly, seasonality and hence deciduousness had no influence on spatial and temporal patterns. We argue that if throughfall patterns are to have any explanatory power with respect to patterns of near-surface processes, data analytical artifacts must be ruled out lest spurious correlation be confounded with causality; furthermore, temporal stability over the domain of interest is essential.
Spatio-temporal patterns of throughfall and solute deposition in an open tropical rain forest
(2008)
Earthquake site responses or site effects are the modifications of surface geology to seismic waves. How well can we predict the site effects (average over many earthquakes) at individual sites so far? To address this question, we tested and compared the effectiveness of different estimation techniques in predicting the outcrop Fourier site responses separated using the general inversion technique (GIT) from recordings. Techniques being evaluated are (a) the empirical correction to the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio of earthquakes (c-HVSR), (b) one-dimensional ground response analysis (GRA), and (c) the square-root-impedance (SRI) method (also called the quarter-wavelength approach). Our results show that c-HVSR can capture significantly more site-specific features in site responses than both GRA and SRI in the aggregate, especially at relatively high frequencies. c-HVSR achieves a "good match" in spectral shape at similar to 80%-90% of 145 testing sites, whereas GRA and SRI fail at most sites. GRA and SRI results have a high level of parametric and/or modeling errors which can be constrained, to some extent, by collecting on-site recordings.
Increasing interests in hydrocarbon resources at depths have drawn greater attentions to the deeply-buried carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin in China. In this study, the cyclic dolomite rocks of Upper Cambrian Lower Qiulitag Group from four outcrop sections in northwestern Tarim Basin were selected to investigate and evaluate the petrophysical properties in relation to depositional facies and cyclicity. The Lower Qiulitag Group includes ten lithofacies, which were deposited in intermediate to shallow subtidal, restricted shallow subtidal, intertidal, and supratidal environments on a carbonate ramp system. These lithofacies are vertically stacked into repeated shallowing-upward, meter-scale cycles which are further grouped into six third-order depositional sequences (Sq1 to Sq6). There are variable types of pore spaces in the Lower Qiulitag Group dolomite rocks, including interparticle, intraparticle, and fenestral pores of primary origin, inter crystal, and vuggy pores of late diagenetic modification. The porosity in the dolomites is generally facies-selective as that the microbially-originated thrombolites and stromatolites generally yield a relatively high porosity. In contrast, the high-energy ooidal grainstones generally have very low porosity. In this case, the microbialite-based peritidal cycles and peritidal cycle-dominated highstand (or regressive) successions have relatively high volumes of pore spaces, although highly fluctuating (or vertical inhomogeneous). Accordingly, the grainstone-based subtidal cycles and subtidal cycle-dominated transgressive successions generally yield extremely low porosity. This scenario indicates that porosity development and preservation in the thick dolomite successions are primarily controlled by depositional facies which were influenced by sea-level fluctuations of different orders and later diagenetic overprinting.
This study presents an application of an innovative sampling strategy to assess soil moisture dynamics in a headwater of the Weißeritz in the German eastern Ore Mountains. A grassland site and a forested site were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters (STDR) that consist of 39 and 32 coated TDR probes of 60 cm length. Distributed time series of vertically averaged soil moisture data from both sites/ensembles were analyzed by statistical and geostatistical methods. Spatial variability and the spatial mean at the forested site were larger than at the grassland site. Furthermore, clustering of TDR probes in combination with long-term monitoring allowed identification of average spatial covariance structures at the small field scale for different wetness states. The correlation length of soil water content as well as the sill to nugget ratio at the grassland site increased with increasing average wetness and but, in contrast, were constant at the forested site. As soil properties at both the forested and grassland sites are extremely variable, this suggests that the correlation structure at the forested site is dominated by the pattern of throughfall and interception. We also found a strong correlation between average soil moisture dynamics and runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events observed at gauge Rehefeld, which explains almost as much variability in the runoff coefficients as pre-event discharge. By combining these results with a recession analysis we derived a first conceptual model of the dominant runoff mechanisms operating in this catchment. Finally, long term simulations with a physically based hydrological model were in good/acceptable accordance with the time series of spatial average soil water content observed at the forested site and the grassland site, respectively. Both simulations used a homogeneous soil setup that closely reproduces observed average soil conditions observed at the field sites. This corroborates the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes in typical functional units is a promising technique to explore the soil moisture control on runoff generation. Long term monitoring of such sites could maybe yield valuable information for flood warning. The sampling strategy helps furthermore to unravel different types of soil moisture variability.
[1] Observations of hydrological response often exhibit considerable scatter that is difficult to interpret. In this paper, we examine runoff production of 53 sprinkling experiments on the water-repellent soils in the southern Alps of Switzerland; simulated plot scale tracer transport in the macroporous soils at the Weiherbach site, Germany; and runoff generation data from the 2.3-km(2) Tannhausen catchment, Germany, that has cracking soils. The response at the three sites is highly dependent on the initial soil moisture state as a result of the threshold dynamics of the systems. A simple statistical model of threshold behavior is proposed to help interpret the scatter in the observations. Specifically, the model portrays how the inherent macrostate uncertainty of initial soil moisture translates into the scatter of the observed system response. The statistical model is then used to explore the asymptotic pattern of predictability when increasing the number of observations, which is normally not possible in a field study. Although the physical and chemical mechanisms of the processes at the three sites are different, the predictability patterns are remarkably similar. Predictability is smallest when the system state is close to the threshold and increases as the system state moves away from it. There is inherent uncertainty in the response data that is not measurement error but is related to the observability of the initial conditions.
[1] This paper examines the effect of uncertain initial soil moisture on hydrologic response at the plot scale (1 m(2)) and the catchment scale (3.6 km(2)) in the presence of threshold transitions between matrix and preferential flow. We adopt the concepts of microstates and macrostates from statistical mechanics. The microstates are the detailed patterns of initial soil moisture that are inherently unknown, while the macrostates are specified by the statistical distributions of initial soil moisture that can be derived from the measurements typically available in field experiments. We use a physically based model and ensure that it closely represents the processes in the Weiherbach catchment, Germany. We then use the model to generate hydrologic response to hypothetical irrigation events and rainfall events for multiple realizations of initial soil moisture microstates that are all consistent with the same macrostate. As the measures of uncertainty at the plot scale we use the coefficient of variation and the scaled range of simulated vertical bromide transport distances between realizations. At the catchment scale we use similar statistics derived from simulated flood peak discharges. The simulations indicate that at both scales the predictability depends on the average initial soil moisture state and is at a minimum around the soil moisture value where the transition from matrix to macropore flow occurs. The predictability increases with rainfall intensity. The predictability increases with scale with maximum absolute errors of 90 and 32% at the plot scale and the catchment scale, respectively. It is argued that even if we assume perfect knowledge on the processes, the level of detail with which one can measure the initial conditions along with the nonlinearity of the system will set limits to the repeatability of experiments and limits to the predictability of models at the plot and catchment scales
This paper examines the effect of spatially variable initial soil moisture and spatially variable precipitation on predictive uncertainty of simulated catchment scale runoff response in the presence of threshold processes. The underlying philosophy is to use a physically based hydrological model named CATFLOW as a virtual landscape, assuming perfect knowledge of the processes. The model, which in particular conceptualizes preferential flow as threshold process, was developed based on intensive process and parameter studies and has already been successfully applied to simulate flow and transport at different scales and catchments. Study area is the intensively investigated Weiherbach catchment. Numerous replicas of spatially variable initial soil moisture or spatially variable precipitation with the same geostatistical properties are conditioned to observed soil moisture and precipitation data and serve as initial and boundary conditions for the model during repeated simulations. The effect of spatially soil moisture on modeling catchment runoff response was found to depend strongly on average saturation of the catchment. Different realizations of initial soil moisture yielded strongly different hydrographs for intermediate initial soil moisture as well as in dry catchment conditions; in other states the effect was found to be much lower. This is clearly because of the threshold nature of preferential flow as well as the threshold nature of Hortonian production of overland flow. It was shown furthermore that the spatial pattern of a key parameter (macroporosity) that determined threshold behavior is of vast importance for the model response. The estimation of these patterns, which is mostly done based on sparse observations and expert knowledge, is a major source for predictive model uncertainty. Finally, it was shown that the usage of biased, i.e. spatially homogenized precipitation, input during parameter estimation yields a biased model structure, which gives poor results when used with highly distributed input. If spatially highly resolved precipitation was used during model parameter estimation. the predictive uncertainty of the model was clearly reduced. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Transverse dispersion, or tracer spreading orthogonal to the mean flow direction, which is relevant e.g, for quantifying bio-degradation of contaminant plumes or mixing of reactive solutes, has been studied in the literature less than the longitudinal one. Inferring transverse dispersion coefficients from field experiments is a difficult and error-prone task, requiring a spatial resolution of solute plumes which is not easily achievable in applications. In absence of field data, it is a questionable common practice to set transverse dispersivities as a fraction of the longitudinal one, with the ratio 1/10 being the most prevalent. We collected estimates of field-scale transverse dispersivities from existing publications and explored possible scale relationships as guidance criteria for applications. Our investigation showed that a large number of estimates available in the literature are of low reliability and should be discarded from further analysis. The remaining reliable estimates are formation-specific, span three orders of magnitude and do not show any clear scale-dependence on the plume traveled distance. The ratios with the longitudinal dispersivity are also site specific and vary widely. The reliability of transverse dispersivities depends significantly on the type of field experiment and method of data analysis. In applications where transverse dispersion plays a significant role, inference of transverse dispersivities should be part of site characterization with the transverse dispersivity estimated as an independent parameter rather than related heuristically to longitudinal dispersivity.