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Width control on event-scale deposition and evacuation of sediment in bedrock-confined channels
(2020)
In mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers, the response of the system to a flood event can be affected by a number of factors, including coarse sediment availability in the channel, sediment supply from the hillslopes and upstream, flood sequencing and coarse sediment grain size distribution. However, the impact of along-stream changes in channel width on bedload transport dynamics remains largely unexplored. We combine field data, theory and numerical modelling to address this gap. First, we present observations from the Daan River gorge in western Taiwan, where the river flows through a 1 km long 20-50 m wide bedrock gorge bounded upstream and downstream by wide braidplains. We documented two flood events during which coarse sediment evacuation and redeposition appear to cause changes of up to several metres in channel bed elevation. Motivated by this case study, we examined the relationships between discharge, channel width and bedload transport capacity, and show that for a given slope narrow channels transport bedload more efficiently than wide ones at low discharges, whereas wider channels are more efficient at high discharges. We used the model sedFlow to explore this effect, running a random sequence of floods through a channel with a narrow gorge section bounded upstream and downstream by wider reaches. Channel response to imposed floods is complex, as high and low discharges drive different spatial patterns of erosion and deposition, and the channel may experience both of these regimes during the peak and recession periods of each flood. Our modelling suggests that width differences alone can drive substantial variations in sediment flux and bed response, without the need for variations in sediment supply or mobility. The fluctuations in sediment transport rates that result from width variations can lead to intermittent bed exposure, driving incision in different segments of the channel during different portions of the hydrograph.
Many institutions struggle to tap into the potential of their large archives of radar reflectivity: these data are often affected by miscalibration, yet the bias is typically unknown and temporally volatile. Still, relative calibration techniques can be used to correct the measurements a posteriori. For that purpose, the usage of spaceborne reflectivity observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) platforms has become increasingly popular: the calibration bias of a ground radar (GR) is estimated from its average reflectivity difference to the spaceborne radar (SR). Recently, Crisologo et al. (2018) introduced a formal procedure to enhance the reliability of such estimates: each match between SR and GR observations is assigned a quality index, and the calibration bias is inferred as a quality-weighted average of the differences between SR and GR. The relevance of quality was exemplified for the Subic S-band radar in the Philippines, which is greatly affected by partial beam blockage. The present study extends the concept of quality-weighted averaging by accounting for path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in addition to beam blockage. This extension becomes vital for radars that operate at the C or X band. Correspondingly, the study setup includes a C-band radar that substantially overlaps with the S-band radar. Based on the extended quality-weighting approach, we retrieve, for each of the two ground radars, a time series of calibration bias estimates from suitable SR overpasses. As a result of applying these estimates to correct the ground radar observations, the consistency between the ground radars in the region of overlap increased substantially. Furthermore, we investigated if the bias estimates can be interpolated in time, so that ground radar observations can be corrected even in the absence of prompt SR overpasses. We found that a moving average approach was most suitable for that purpose, although limited by the absence of explicit records of radar maintenance operations.
Many institutions struggle to tap into the potential of their large archives of radar reflectivity: these data are often affected by miscalibration, yet the bias is typically unknown and temporally volatile. Still, relative calibration techniques can be used to correct the measurements a posteriori. For that purpose, the usage of spaceborne reflectivity observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) platforms has become increasingly popular: the calibration bias of a ground radar (GR) is estimated from its average reflectivity difference to the spaceborne radar (SR). Recently, Crisologo et al. (2018) introduced a formal procedure to enhance the reliability of such estimates: each match between SR and GR observations is assigned a quality index, and the calibration bias is inferred as a quality-weighted average of the differences between SR and GR. The relevance of quality was exemplified for the Subic S-band radar in the Philippines, which is greatly affected by partial beam blockage.
The present study extends the concept of quality-weighted averaging by accounting for path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in addition to beam blockage. This extension becomes vital for radars that operate at the C or X band. Correspondingly, the study setup includes a C-band radar that substantially overlaps with the S-band radar. Based on the extended quality-weighting approach, we retrieve, for each of the two ground radars, a time series of calibration bias estimates from suitable SR overpasses. As a result of applying these estimates to correct the ground radar observations, the consistency between the ground radars in the region of overlap increased substantially. Furthermore, we investigated if the bias estimates can be interpolated in time, so that ground radar observations can be corrected even in the absence of prompt SR overpasses. We found that a moving average approach was most suitable for that purpose, although limited by the absence of explicit records of radar maintenance operations.
The Quaternary volcanic fields of the Eifel (Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany) had their last eruptions less than 13,000 years ago. Recently, deep low-frequency (DLF) earthquakes were detected beneath one of the volcanic fields showing evidence of ongoing magmatic activity in the lower crust and upper mantle. In this work, seismic wide- and steep-angle experiments from 1978/1979 and 1987/1988 are compiled, partially reprocessed and interpreted, together with other data to better determine the location, size, shape, and state of magmatic reservoirs in the Eifel region near the crust-mantle boundary. We discuss seismic evidence for a low-velocity gradient layer from 30-36 km depth, which has developed over a large region under all Quaternary volcanic fields of the Rhenish Massif and can be explained by the presence of partial melts. We show that the DLF earthquakes connect the postulated upper mantle reservoir with the upper crust at a depth of about 8 km, directly below one of the youngest phonolitic volcanic centers in the Eifel, where CO(2)originating from the mantle is massively outgassing. A bright spot in the West Eifel between 6 and 10 km depth represents a Tertiary magma reservoir and is seen as a model for a differentiated reservoir beneath the young phonolitic center today. We find that the distribution of volcanic fields is controlled by the Variscan lithospheric structures and terrane boundaries as a whole, which is reflected by an offset of the Moho depth, a wedge-shaped transparent zone in the lower crust and the system of thrusts over about 120 km length.
Sedimentary ancient DNA has been proposed as a key methodology for reconstructing biodiversity over time. Yet, despite the concentration of Earth’s biodiversity in the tropics, this method has rarely been applied in this region. Moreover, the taphonomy of sedimentary DNA, especially in tropical environments, is poorly understood. This study elucidates challenges and opportunities of sedimentary ancient DNA approaches for reconstructing tropical biodiversity. We present shotgun-sequenced metagenomic profiles and DNA degradation patterns from multiple sediment cores from Mubwindi Swamp, located in Bwindi Impenetrable Forest (Uganda), one of the most diverse forests in Africa. We describe the taxonomic composition of the sediments covering the past 2200 years and compare the sedimentary DNA data with a comprehensive set of environmental and sedimentological parameters to unravel the conditions of DNA degradation. Consistent with the preservation of authentic ancient DNA in tropical swamp sediments, DNA concentration and mean fragment length declined exponentially with age and depth, while terminal deamination increased with age. DNA preservation patterns cannot be explained by any environmental parameter alone, but age seems to be the primary driver of DNA degradation in the swamp. Besides degradation, the presence of living microbial communities in the sediment also affects DNA quantity. Critically, 92.3% of our metagenomic data of a total 81.8 million unique, merged reads cannot be taxonomically identified due to the absence of genomic references in public databases. Of the remaining 7.7%, most of the data (93.0%) derive from Bacteria and Archaea, whereas only 0–5.8% are from Metazoa and 0–6.9% from Viridiplantae, in part due to unbalanced taxa representation in the reference data. The plant DNA record at ordinal level agrees well with local pollen data but resolves less diversity. Our animal DNA record reveals the presence of 41 native taxa (16 orders) including Afrotheria, Carnivora, and Ruminantia at Bwindi during the past 2200 years. Overall, we observe no decline in taxonomic richness with increasing age suggesting that several-thousand-year-old information on past biodiversity can be retrieved from tropical sediments. However, comprehensive genomic surveys of tropical biota need prioritization for sedimentary DNA to be a viable methodology for future tropical biodiversity studies.
We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.
Anthropogenic activities have led to a global decline in biodiversity, and monitoring studies indicate that both insect communities and wetland ecosystems are particularly affected. However, there is a need for long-term data (over centennial or millennial timescales) to better understand natural community dynamics and the processes that govern the observed trends. Chironomids (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) are often the most abundant insects in lake ecosystems, sensitive to environmental change, and, because their larval exoskeleton head capsules preserve well in lake sediments, they provide a unique record of insect community dynamics through time. Here, we provide the results of a metadata analysis of chironomid diversity across a range of spatial and temporal scales. First, we analyse spatial trends in chironomid diversity using Northern Hemispheric data sets overall consisting of 837 lakes. Our results indicate that in most of our data sets, summer temperature (T-jul) is strongly associated with spatial trends in modern-day chironomid diversity. We observe a strong increase in chironomid alpha diversity with increasing T-jul in regions with present-day T-jul between 2.5 and 14 degrees C. In some areas with T-jul > 14 degrees C, chironomid diversity stabilizes or declines. Second, we demonstrate that the direction and amplitude of change in alpha diversity in a compilation of subfossil chironomid records spanning the last glacial-interglacial transition (similar to 15,000-11,000 years ago) are similar to those observed in our modern data. A compilation of Holocene records shows that during phases when the amplitude of temperature change was small, site-specific factors had a greater influence on the chironomid fauna obscuring the chironomid diversity-temperature relationship. Our results imply expected overall chironomid diversity increases in colder regions such as the Arctic under sustained global warming, but with complex and not necessarily predictable responses for individual sites.
Dispersion-curve inversion of Rayleigh waves to infer subsurface shear-wave velocity is a long-standing problem in seismology. Due to nonlinearity and ill-posedness, sophisticated regularization techniques are required to solve the problem for a stable velocity model. We have formulated the problem as a minimization problem with nonlinear operator constraint and then solve it by using an inexact augmented Lagrangian method, taking advantage of the Haney-Tsai Dix-type relation (a global linear approximation of the nonlinear forward operator). This replaces the original regularized nonlinear problem with iterative minimization of a more tractable regularized linear problem followed by a nonlinear update of the phase velocity (data) in which the update can be performed accurately with any forward modeling engine, for example, the finite-element method. The algorithm allows discretizing the medium with thin layers (for the finite-element method) and thus omitting the layer thicknesses from the unknowns and also allows incorporating arbitrary regularizations to shape the desired velocity model. In this research, we use total variation regularization to retrieve the shear-wave velocity model. We use two synthetic and two real data examples to illustrate the performance of the inversion algorithm with total variation regularization. We find that the method is fast and stable, and it converges to the solution of the original nonlinear problem.
Dispersion-curve inversion of Rayleigh waves to infer subsurface shear-wave velocity is a long-standing problem in seismology. Due to nonlinearity and ill-posedness, sophisticated regularization techniques are required to solve the problem for a stable velocity model. We have formulated the problem as a minimization problem with nonlinear operator constraint and then solve it by using an inexact augmented Lagrangian method, taking advantage of the Haney-Tsai Dix-type relation (a global linear approximation of the nonlinear forward operator). This replaces the original regularized nonlinear problem with iterative minimization of a more tractable regularized linear problem followed by a nonlinear update of the phase velocity (data) in which the update can be performed accurately with any forward modeling engine, for example, the finite-element method. The algorithm allows discretizing the medium with thin layers (for the finite-element method) and thus omitting the layer thicknesses from the unknowns and also allows incorporating arbitrary regularizations to shape the desired velocity model. In this research, we use total variation regularization to retrieve the shear-wave velocity model. We use two synthetic and two real data examples to illustrate the performance of the inversion algorithm with total variation regularization. We find that the method is fast and stable, and it converges to the solution of the original nonlinear problem.
Most hydrological studies rely on a model calibrated using discharge alone. However, judging the model reliability based on such calibration is problematic, as it does not guarantee the correct representation of internal hydrological processes. This study aims (a) to develop a comprehensive multi-objective calibration framework using remote sensing vegetation data and hydrological signatures (flow duration curve - FDC, and baseflow index) in addition to discharge, and (b) to apply this framework for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a typical Andean catchment. Overall, our calibration approach outperformed traditional discharge-based and FDC signature-based calibration strategies in terms of vegetation, streamflow, and flow partitioning simulation. New hydrological insights for the region are the following: baseflow is the main component of the streamflow sustaining the long dry-season flow, and pasture areas offer higher water yield and baseflow than other land-cover types. The proposed approach could be used in other data-scarce regions with complex topography.
The thick-skinned fold-and-thrust belt on the eastern flank of the Andean Plateau in northwestern Argentina (NWA) is a zone of active contractional deformation characterized by fault-bounded mountain ranges with no systematic spatiotemporal pattern of tectonic activity. In contrast, the thin-skinned Subandean fold-and-thrust belt of northern Argentina and southern Bolivia is characterized primarily by in-sequence (i.e., west to east) fault progression, with a narrow zone of Quaternary deformation focused at the front of the orogenic wedge. To better understand how recent deformation is accommodated across these mountain ranges and the Argentinian portion of the orogen in particular, estimating and comparing deformation rates and patterns across different timescales is essential. We present Late Pleistocene shortening rates for the central Calchaqui intermontane valley in NWA associated with at least three episodes of deformation. Global Positioning System data for the same region reveal a gradual decrease in horizontal surface velocities from the Eastern Cordillera toward the foreland, which contrasts with the rapid velocity gradient associated with a locked decollement in the Subandean Ranges of southern Bolivia. Our new results represent a small view of regional deformation that, when considered in combination with the shallow crustal seismicity and decadal-scale surface velocities, support the notion that strain release in NWA is associated with numerous slowly deforming structures that are distributed throughout the orogen.
Other than commonly assumed in seismology, the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves is not necessarily a single-valued function of frequency. In fact, a single Rayleigh mode can exist with three different values of phase velocity at one frequency. We demonstrate this for the first higher mode on a realistic shallow seismic structure of a homogeneous layer of unconsolidated sediments on top of a half-space of solid rock (LOH). In the case of LOH a significant contrast to the half-space is required to produce the phenomenon. In a simpler structure of a homogeneous layer with fixed (rigid) bottom (LFB) the phenomenon exists for values of Poisson's ratio between 0.19 and 0.5 and is most pronounced for P-wave velocity being three times S-wave velocity (Poisson's ratio of 0.4375). A pavement-like structure (PAV) of two layers on top of a half-space produces the multivaluedness for the fundamental mode. Programs for the computation of synthetic dispersion curves are prone to trouble in such cases. Many of them use mode-follower algorithms which loose track of the dispersion curve and miss the multivalued section. We show results for well established programs. Their inability to properly handle these cases might be one reason why the phenomenon of multivaluedness went unnoticed in seismological Rayleigh wave research for so long. For the very same reason methods of dispersion analysis must fail if they imply wave number k(l)(omega) for the lth Rayleigh mode to be a single-valued function of frequency.. This applies in particular to deconvolution methods like phase-matched filters. We demonstrate that a slant-stack analysis fails in the multivalued section, while a Fourier-Bessel transformation captures the complete Rayleigh-wave signal. Waves of finite bandwidth in the multivalued section propagate with positive group-velocity and negative phase-velocity. Their eigenfunctions appear conventional and contain no conspicuous feature.
The hyperthermal events of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, provide an opportunity to investigate the potential effects of climate warming on marine ecosystems. Here, we examine the shallow benthic marine communities preserved in the late Cretaceous to Eocene strata on the Gulf Coastal Plain (United States). In stark contrast to the ecological shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, our data show that the early Cenozoic hyperthermals did not have a long-term impact on the generic diversity nor composition of the Gulf Coastal Plain molluscan communities. We propose that these communities were resilient to climate change because molluscs are better adapted to high temperatures than other taxa, as demonstrated by their physiology and evolutionary history. In terms of resilience, these communities differ from other shallow-water carbonate ecosystems, such as reef communities, which record significant changes during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals. These data highlight the strikingly different responses of community types, i.e., the almost imperceptible response of molluscs versus the marked turnover of foraminifera and reef faunas. The impact on molluscan communities may have been low because detrimental conditions did not devastate the entire Gulf Coastal Plain, allowing molluscs to rapidly recolonise vacated areas once harsh environmental conditions ameliorated.
Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe
(2020)
Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
The Salt Range in Pakistan exposes Precambrian to Pleistocene strata outcropping along the Salt Range Thrust (SRT). To better understand the in-situ Cambrian and Pliocene tectonic evolution of the Pakistan Subhimalaya, we have conducted low-temperature thermochronological analysis using apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission track dating. We combine cooling ages from different samples located along the thrust front of the SRT into a thermal model that shows two major cooling events associated with rifting and regional erosion in the Late Palaeozoic and SRT activity since the Pliocene. Our results suggest that the SRT maintained a long-term average shortening rate of similar to 5-6 mm/yr and a high exhumation rate above the SRT ramp since similar to 4 Ma.
The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5), while simulating the historical period proposed by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), detects an increasing trend in the sea surface height (SSH) on the southern hemisphere oceans relative to that of the pre-industrial era. The increasing trend is accentuated in the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This study sheds light on the sources of such trends in these regions. The results suggest an association with the thermal expansion of the oceans in the upper 700 m due to a gradual warming inflicted by those future scenarios. BESM-OA2.5 presents a surface height increase of 0.11 m in the historical period of 1850-2005. Concerning future projections, BESM-OA2.5 projects SSH increases of 0.14 and 0.23 m (relative to the historical 2005 value) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of 2100. These increases are predominantly in a band of latitude within 35-60 degrees S in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The reproducibility of the trend signal detected in the BESM-OA2.5 simulations is confirmed by the results of three other CMIP5 models.
The Victoria microplate between the Eastern and Western Branches of the East African Rift System is one of the largest continental microplates on Earth. In striking contrast to its neighboring plates, Victoria rotates counterclockwise with respect to Nubia. The underlying cause of this distinctive rotation has remained elusive so far. Using 3D numerical models, we investigate the role of pre-existing lithospheric heterogeneities in continental microplate rotation. We find that Victoria's rotation is primarily controlled by the distribution of rheologically stronger zones that transmit the drag of the major plates to the microplate and of the mechanically weaker mobile belts surrounding Victoria that facilitate rotation. Our models reproduce Victoria's GPS-derived counterclockwise rotation as well as key complexities of the regional tectonic stress field. These results reconcile competing ideas on the opening of the rift system by highlighting differences in orientation of the far-field divergence, local extension, and the minimum horizontal stress. One of the largest continental microplates on Earth is situated in the center of the East African Rift System, and oddly, the Victoria microplate rotates counterclockwise with respect to the neighboring African tectonic plate. Here, the authors' modelling results suggest that Victoria microplate rotation is caused by edge-driven lithospheric processes related to the specific geometry of rheologically weak and strong regions.
Early onset and late acceleration of rapid exhumation in the Namche Barwa syntaxis, eastern Himalaya
(2020)
The Himalayan syntaxes, characterized by extreme rates of rock exhumation co-located with major trans-orogenic rivers, figure prominently in the debate on tectonic versus erosional forcing of exhumation. Both the mechanism and timing of rapid exhumation of the Namche Barwa massif in the eastern syntaxis remain controversial. It has been argued that coupling between crustal rock advection and surface erosion initiated in the late Miocene (8-10 Ma). Recent studies, in contrast, suggest a Quaternary onset of rapid exhumation linked to a purely tectonic mechanism. We report new multisystem detrital thermochronology data from the most proximal Neogene clastic sediments downstream of Namche Barwa and use a thermo-kinematic model constrained by new and published data to explore its exhumation history. Modeling results show that exhumation accelerated to similar to 4 km/m.y. at ca. 8 Ma and to similar to 9 km/m.y. after ca. 2 Ma. This three-stage history reconciles apparently contradictory evidence for early and late onset of rapid exhumation and suggests efficient coupling between tectonics and erosion since the late Miocene. Quaternary acceleration of exhumation is consistent with river-profile evolution and may be linked to a Quaternary river-capture event.
Detailed organic geochemical and carbon isotopic (delta C-13 and Delta C-14) analyses are performed on permafrost deposits affected by coastal erosion (Herschel Island, Canadian Beaufort Sea) and adjacent marine sediments (Herschel Basin) to understand the fate of organic carbon in Arctic nearshore environments. We use an end-member model based on the carbon isotopic composition of bulk organic matter to identify sources of organic carbon. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to quantify the contribution of coastal permafrost erosion to the sedimentary carbon budget. The models suggest that similar to 40% of all carbon released by local coastal permafrost erosion is efficiently trapped and sequestered in the nearshore zone. This highlights the importance of sedimentary traps in environments such as basins, lagoons, troughs, and canyons for the carbon sequestration in previously poorly investigated, nearshore areas.
Plain Language Summary Increasing air and sea surface temperatures at high latitudes leads to accelerated thaw, destabilization, and erosion of perennially frozen soils (i.e., permafrost), which are often rich in organic carbon. Coastal erosion leads to an increased mobilization of organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean, which there can be converted into greenhouse gases and may therefore contribute to further warming. Carbon decomposition can be limited if organic matter is efficiently deposited on the seafloor, buried in marine sediments, and thus removed from the short-term carbon cycle. Basins, canyons, and troughs near the coastline can serve as sediment traps and potentially accommodate large quantities of organic carbon along the Arctic coast. Here we use biomarkers (source-specific molecules), stable carbon isotopes, and radiocarbon to identify the sources of organic carbon in the nearshore zone of the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea near Herschel Island. We quantify the contribution of coastal permafrost erosion to the sedimentary carbon budget of the area and estimate that more than a third of all carbon released by local permafrost erosion is efficiently trapped in marine sediments. This highlights the importance of regional sediment traps for carbon sequestration.
Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought
(2020)
The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction.