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An accurate estimation of crop yield under climate change scenarios is essential to quantify our ability to feed a growing population and develop agronomic adaptations to meet future food demand. A coordinated evaluation of yield simulations from process-based eco-physiological models for climate change impact assessment is still missing for soybean, the most widely grown grain legume and the main source of protein in our food chain. In this first soybean multi-model study, we used ten prominent models capable of simulating soybean yield under varying temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] to quantify the uncertainty in soybean yield simulations in response to these factors. Models were first parametrized with high quality measured data from five contrasting environments. We found considerable variability among models in simulated yield responses to increasing temperature and [CO2]. For example, under a + 3 degrees C temperature rise in our coolest location in Argentina, some models simulated that yield would reduce as much as 24%, while others simulated yield increases up to 29%. In our warmest location in Brazil, the models simulated a yield reduction ranging from a 38% decrease under + 3 degrees C temperature rise to no effect on yield. Similarly, when increasing [CO2] from 360 to 540 ppm, the models simulated a yield increase that ranged from 6% to 31%. Model calibration did not reduce variability across models but had an unexpected effect on modifying yield responses to temperature for some of the models. The high uncertainty in model responses indicates the limited applicability of individual models for climate change food projections. However, the ensemble mean of simulations across models was an effective tool to reduce the high uncertainty in soybean yield simulations associated with individual models and their parametrization. Ensemble mean yield responses to temperature and [CO2] were similar to those reported from the literature. Our study is the first demonstration of the benefits achieved from using an ensemble of grain legume models for climate change food projections, and highlights that further soybean model development with experiments under elevated [CO2] and temperature is needed to reduce the uncertainty from the individual models.
Climatic and hydrological variability as a driver of the Lake Gościąż biota during the Younger Dryas
(2022)
The Younger Dryas (YD) is a roughly 1,100-year cold period marking the end of the last glaciation. Climate modelling for northern Europe indicates high summer temperatures and strong continentality. In eastern Europe, the scale of temperature variation and its influence on ecosystems is weakly recognised. Here, we present a multi-proxy reconstruction of YD conditions from Lake Gos ' ciaz (central Poland). The decadal-resolution analysis of its annually varved sediments indicates an initial decrease in Chironomidae-inferred mean July air temperature followed by steady warming. The pollen-inferred winter-to-summer temperature amplitude and annual precip-itation is highest at the Allerod/YD transition and the early YD (ca. 12.7-12.4 ky cal BP) and YD/Holocene (11.7-11.4 ka cal BP) transition. Temperature and precipitation were the main reasons for lake level fluctuations as reflected in the planktonic/littoral Cladocera ratio. The lake's diatom-inferred total phosphorus decreased with increasing summer temperature from about mid YD. Windy conditions in the early YD until ~12.3 ka cal BP caused water mixing and a short-lived/temporary increase in nutrient availability for phytoplankton. The Chironomidae-inferred summer temperature and pollen inferred summer temperature, winter temperature and annual precipitation herein are one of only a few in eastern Europe conducted with such high resolution.
Understanding eastern African paleoclimate is critical for contextualizing early human evolution, adaptation, and dispersal, yet Pleistocene climate of this region and its governing mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the lack of long, orbitally-resolved, terrestrial paleoclimate records. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope records of rainfall from paleolake sediment cores from key time windows that resolve long-term trends, variations, and high-latitude effects on tropical African precipitation. Eastern African rainfall was dominantly controlled by variations in low-latitude summer insolation during most of the early and middle Pleistocene, with little evidence that glacial-interglacial cycles impacted rainfall until the late Pleistocene. We observe the influence of high-latitude-driven climate processes emerging from the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5) to the present, an interval when glacial-interglacial cycles were strong and insolation forcing was weak. Our results demonstrate a variable response of eastern African rainfall to low-latitude insolation forcing and high-latitude-driven climate change, likely related to the relative strengths of these forcings through time and a threshold in monsoon sensitivity. We observe little difference in mean rainfall between the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, which suggests that orbitally-driven climate variations likely played a more significant role than gradual change in the relationship between early humans and their environment.
The immense advances in computer power achieved in the last decades have had a significant impact in Earth science, providing valuable research outputs that allow the simulation of complex natural processes and systems, and generating improved forecasts. The development and implementation of innovative geoscientific software is currently evolving towards a sustainable and efficient development by integrating models of different aspects of the Earth system. This will set the foundation for a future digital twin of the Earth. The codification and update of this software require great effort from research groups and therefore, it needs to be preserved for its reuse by future generations of geoscientists. Here, we report on Geo-Soft-CoRe, a Geoscientific Software & Code Repository, hosted at the archive DIGITAL.CSIC. This is an open source, multidisciplinary and multiscale collection of software and code developed to analyze different aspects of the Earth system, encompassing tools to: 1) analyze climate variability; 2) assess hazards, and 3) characterize the structure and dynamics of the solid Earth. Due to the broad range of applications of these software packages, this collection is useful not only for basic research in Earth science, but also for applied research and educational purposes, reducing the gap between the geosciences and the society. By providing each software and code with a permanent identifier (DOI), we ensure its self-sustainability and accomplish the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principles. Therefore, we aim for a more transparent science, transferring knowledge in an easier way to the geoscience community, and encouraging an integrated use of computational infrastructure.
The martensitic transformation is a fundamental physical phenomenon at the origin of important industrial applications. However, the underlying microscopic mechanism, which is of critical importance to explain the outstanding mechanical properties of martensitic materials, is still not fully understood. This is because for most martensitic materials the transformation is a fast process that makes in situ studies extremely challenging. Noble solids krypton and xenon undergo a progressive pressure-induced face-centered cubic (fcc) to hexagonal close-packed (hcp) martensitic transition with a very wide coexistence domain. Here, we took advantage of this unique feature to study the detailed transformation progress at the atomic level by employing in situ x-ray diffraction and absorption spectroscopy. We evidenced a four-stage pathway and suggest that the lattice mismatch between the fcc and hcp forms plays a key role in the generation of strain. We also determined precisely the effect of the transformation on the compression behavior of these materials.
Pedogenic carbonate is widespread at mid latitudes where warm and dry conditions favor soil carbonate growth from spring to fall. The mechanisms and timing of pedogenic carbonate formation are more ambiguous in the tropical domain, where long periods of soil water saturation and high soil respiration enhance calcite dissolution. This paper provides stable carbon, oxygen and clumped isotope values from Quaternary and Miocene pedogenic carbonates in the tropical domain of Myanmar, in areas characterized by warm (>18°C) winters and annual rainfall up to 1,700 mm. We show that carbonate growth in Myanmar is delayed to the driest and coldest months of the year by sustained monsoonal rainfall from mid spring to late fall. The range of isotopic variability in Quaternary pedogenic carbonates can be solely explained by temporal changes of carbonate growth within the dry season, from winter to early spring. We propose that high soil moisture year-round in the tropical domain narrows carbonate growth to the driest months and makes it particularly sensitive to the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This sensitivity is also enabled by high winter temperatures, allowing carbonate growth to occur outside the warmest months of the year. This high sensitivity is expected to be more prominent in the geological record during times with higher temperatures and greater expansion of the tropical realm. Clumped isotope temperatures, δ13C and δ18O values of tropical pedogenic carbonates are impacted by changes of both rainfall seasonality and surface temperatures; this sensitivity can potentially be used to track past tropical rainfall distribution.
The West Burma Terrane (WBT) is a small terrane bounded to the east by the Asian Sibumasu Block and to the west by the Indo-Burman Ranges (IBR), the latter being an exhumed accretionary prism that formed during subduction of Indian oceanic lithosphere beneath Asia. Understanding the geological history of the WBT is important for reconstruction of the closure history of the Tethys Ocean and India-Asia collision. Currently there are major discrepancies in the proposed timings of collision between the WBT with both India and Asia; whether the WBT collided with India or Asia first is debated, and proposed timings of collisions stretch from the Mesozoic to the Cenozoic. We undertook a multi-technique provenance study involving petrography, detrital zircon U-Pb and Hf analyses, rutile U-Pb analyses and Sr-Nd bulk rock analyses on sediments of the Central Myanmar Basins of the WBT. We determined that the first arrival of Asian material into the basin occurred after the earliest late Eocene and by the early Oligocene, thus placing a minimum constraint on the timing of WBT-Asia collision. Our low temperature thermochronological study of the IBR records two periods of exhumation, in the early-middle Eocene, and at the Oligo-Miocene boundary. The Eocene event may be associated with the collision of the WBT with India. The later event at the Oligo-Miocene boundary may be associated with changes in wedge dynamics resulting from increased sediment supply to the system; however a number of other possible causes provide equally plausible explanations for both events.
At the junction of greenhouse and icehouse climate states, the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) is a key moment in Cenozoic climate history. While it is associated with severe extinctions and biodiversity turnovers on land, the role of terrestrial climate evolution remains poorly resolved, especially the associated changes in seasonality. Some paleobotanical and geochemical continental records in parts of the Northern Hemisphere suggest the EOT is associated with a marked cooling in winter, leading to the development of more pronounced seasons (i.e., an increase in the mean annual range of temperature, MATR). However, the MATR increase has been barely studied by climate models and large uncertainties remain on its origin, geographical extent and impact. In order to better understand and describe temperature seasonality changes between the middle Eocene and the early Oligocene, we use the Earth system model IPSL-CM5A2 and a set of simulations reconstructing the EOT through three major climate forcings: pCO(2) decrease (1120, 840 and 560 ppm), the Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) formation and the associated sea-level decrease. Our simulations suggest that pCO(2) lowering alone is not sufficient to explain the seasonality evolution described by the data through the EOT but rather that the combined effects of pCO(2) , AIS formation and increased continentality provide the best data-model agreement.pCO(2) decrease induces a zonal pattern with alternating increasing and decreasing seasonality bands particularly strong in the northern high latitudes (up to 8 degrees C MATR increase) due to sea-ice and surface albedo feedback. Conversely, the onset of the AIS is responsible for a more constant surface albedo yearly, which leads to a strong decrease in seasonality in the southern midlatitudes to high latitudes (> 40 degrees S). Finally, continental areas that emerged due to the sea-level lowering cause the largest increase in seasonality and explain most of the global heterogeneity in MATR changes (1MATR) patterns. The Delta MATR patterns we reconstruct are generally consistent with the variability of the EOT biotic crisis intensity across the Northern Hemisphere and provide insights on their underlying mechanisms.
Rivers regulate the global carbon cycle by transferring particulate organic carbon (POC) from terrestrial landscapes to marine sedimentary basins, but the processes controlling the amount and composition of fluvially exported POC are poorly understood. We propose that hydrodynamic sorting processes modify POC fluxes during fluvial transit. We test this hypothesis by studying POC transported along a similar to 1,200 km reach of the Rio Bermejo, Argentina. Nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry revealed that POC was either fine, mineral-associated organic matter, or coarse discrete organic particles. Mineral-associated POC is more resistant to oxidation and has a lower particle settling velocity than discrete POC. Consequently, hydraulic sorting and downstream fining amplify the proportion of fine, mineral-associated POC from similar to 55% to similar to 78% over 1,220 km of downstream transit. This suggests that mineral-associated POC has a greater probability of export and preservation in marine basins than plant detritus, which may be oxidized to CO2 during transit.
Changes in snowpack associated with climatic warming has drastic impacts on surface energy balance in the cryosphere. Yet, traditional monitoring techniques, such as punctual measurements in the field, do not cover the full snowpack spatial and temporal variability, which hampers efforts to upscale measurements to the global scale. This variability is one of the primary constraints in model development. In terms of spatial resolution, active microwaves (synthetic aperture radar - SAR) can address the issue and outperform methods based on passive microwaves. Thus, high-spatial-resolution monitoring of snow depth (SD) would allow for better parameterization of local processes that drive the spatial variability of snow. The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of the TerraSAR-X (TSX) SAR sensor and the wave co-polar phase difference (CPD) method for characterizing snow cover at high spatial resolution. Consequently, we first (1) investigate SD and depth hoar fraction (DHF) variability between different vegetation classes in the Ice Creek catchment (Qikiqtaruk/Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada) using in situ measurements collected over the course of a field campaign in 2019; (2) evaluate linkages between snow characteristics and CPD distribution over the 2019 dataset; and (3) determine CPD seasonality considering meteorological data over the 2015-2019 period. SD could be extracted using the CPD when certain conditions are met. A high incidence angle (>30 circle) with a high topographic wetness index (TWI) (>7.0) showed correlation between SD and CPD (R2 up to 0.72). Further, future work should address a threshold of sensitivity to TWI and incidence angle to map snow depth in such environments and assess the potential of using interpolation tools to fill in gaps in SD information on drier vegetation types.
Organic carbon (OC) stored in Arctic permafrost represents one of Earth's largest and most vulnerable terrestrial carbon pools. Amplified climate warming across the Arctic results in widespread permafrost thaw. Permafrost deposits exposed at river cliffs and coasts are particularly susceptible to thawing processes. Accelerating erosion of terrestrial permafrost along shorelines leads to increased transfer of organic matter (OM) to nearshore waters. However, the amount of terrestrial permafrost carbon and nitrogen as well as the OM quality in these deposits is still poorly quantified. We define the OM quality as the intrinsic potential for further transformation, decomposition and mineralisation. Here, we characterise the sources and the quality of OM supplied to the Lena River at a rapidly eroding permafrost river shoreline cliff in the eastern part of the delta (Sobo-Sise Island). Our multi-proxy approach captures bulk elemental, molecu- lar geochemical and carbon isotopic analyses of Late Pleistocene Yedoma permafrost and Holocene cover deposits, discontinuously spanning the last similar to 52 kyr. We showed that the ancient permafrost exposed in the Sobo-Sise cliff has a high organic carbon content (mean of about 5 wt %). The oldest sediments stem from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 interstadial deposits (dated to 52 to 28 cal ka BP) and are overlaid by last glacial MIS 2 (dated to 28 to 15 cal ka BP) and Holocene MIS 1 (dated to 7-0 cal ka BP) deposits. The relatively high average chain length (ACL) index of n-alkanes along the cliff profile indicates a predominant contribution of vascular plants to the OM composition. The elevated ratio of isoand anteiso-branched fatty acids (FAs) relative to mid- and long-chain (C >= 20) n-FAs in the interstadial MIS 3 and the interglacial MIS 1 deposits suggests stronger microbial activity and consequently higher input of bacterial biomass during these climatically warmer periods. The overall high carbon preference index (CPI) and higher plant fatty acid (HPFA) values as well as high C/N ratios point to a good quality of the preserved OM and thus to a high potential of the OM for decomposition upon thaw. A decrease in HPFA values downwards along the profile probably indicates stronger OM decomposition in the oldest (MIS 3) deposits of the cliff. The characterisation of OM from eroding permafrost leads to a better assessment of the greenhouse gas potential of the OC released into river and nearshore waters in the future.
Arctic river deltas and deltaic near-shore zones represent important land-ocean transition zones influencing sediment dynamics and nutrient fluxes from permafrost-affected terrestrial ecosystems into the coastal Arctic Ocean. To accurately model fluvial carbon and freshwater export from rapidly changing river catchments as well as assess impacts of future change on the Arctic shelf and coastal ecosystems, we need to understand the sea floor characteristics and topographic variety of the coastal zones. To date, digital bathymetrical data from the poorly accessible, shallow, and large areas of the eastern Siberian Arctic shelves are sparse. We have digitized bathymetrical information for nearly 75 000 locations from large-scale (1 V 25000-1 V 500000) current and historical nautical maps of the Lena Delta and the Kolyma Gulf region in northeastern Siberia. We present the first detailed and seamless digital models of coastal zone bathymetry for both delta and gulf regions in 50 and 200m spatial resolution. We validated the resulting bathymetry layers using a combination of our own water depth measurements and a collection of available depth measurements, which showed a strong correlation (r>0.9). Our bathymetrical models will serve as an input for a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model to better quantify fluvial and coastal carbon fluxes to the Arctic Ocean, but they may be useful for a range of other studies related to Arctic delta and near-shore dynamics such as modeling of submarine permafrost, near-shore sea ice, or shelf sediment transport. The new digital high-resolution bathymetry products are available on the PANGAEA data set repository for the Lena Delta (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.934045; Fuchs et al., 2021a) and Kolyma Gulf region (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.934049; Fuchs et al., 2021b), respectively. Likewise, the depth validation data are available on PANGAEA as well (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933187; Fuchs et al., 2021c).
The formation, growth and drainage of lakes in Arctic and boreal lowland permafrost regions influence landscape and ecosystem processes. These lake and drained lake basin (L-DLB) systems occupy >20% of the circumpolar Northern Hemisphere permafrost region and similar to 50% of the area below 300 m above sea level. Climate change is causing drastic impacts to L-DLB systems, with implications for permafrost dynamics, ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical processes and human livelihoods in lowland permafrost regions. In this Review, we discuss how an increase in the number of lakes as a result of permafrost thaw and an intensifying hydrologic regime are not currently offsetting the land area gained through lake drainage, enhancing the dominance of drained lake basins (DLBs).The contemporary transition from lakes to DLBs decreases hydrologic storage, leads to permafrost aggradation, increases carbon sequestration and diversifies the shifting habitat mosaic in Arctic and boreal regions. However, further warming could inhibit permafrost aggradation in DLBs, disrupting the trajectory of important microtopographic controls on carbon fluxes and ecosystem processes in permafrost-region L-DLB systems. Further research is needed to understand the future dynamics of L-DLB systems to improve Earth system models, permafrost carbon feedback assessments, permafrost hydrology linkages, infrastructure development in permafrost regions and the well-being of northern socio-ecological systems.
The drivers of the evolution of the South Asian Monsoon remain widely debated. An intensification of monsoonal rainfall recorded in terrestrial and marine sediment archives from the earliest Miocene (23-20 million years ago (Ma)) is generally attributed to Himalayan uplift. However, Indian Ocean palaeorecords place the onset of a strong monsoon around 13 Ma, linked to strengthening of the southwesterly winds of the Somali Jet that also force Arabian Sea upwelling. Here we reconcile these divergent records using Earth system model simulations to evaluate the interactions between palaeogeography and ocean-atmosphere dynamics. We show that factors forcing the South Asian Monsoon circulation versus rainfall are decoupled and diachronous. Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau topography predominantly controlled early Miocene rainfall patterns, with limited impact on ocean-atmosphere circulation. The uplift of the East African and Middle Eastern topography played a pivotal role in the establishment of the modern Somali Jet structure above the western Indian Ocean, while strong upwelling initiated as a direct consequence of the emergence of the Arabian Peninsula and the onset of modern-like atmospheric circulation. Our results emphasize that although elevated rainfall seasonality was probably a persistent feature since the India-Asia collision in the Paleogene, modern-like monsoonal atmospheric circulation only emerged in the late Neogene.
Understanding and constraining the source of geodetic deformation in volcanic areas is an important component of hazard assessment. Here, we analyse deformation and seismicity for one year before the March 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland. We generate a high-resolution catalogue of 39,500 earthquakes using optical cable recordings and develop a poroelastic model to describe three pre-eruptional uplift and subsidence cycles at the Svartsengi geothermal field, 8 km west of the eruption site. We find the observed deformation is best explained by cyclic intrusions into a permeable aquifer by a fluid injected at 4 km depth below the geothermal field, with a total volume of 0.11 ± 0.05 km3 and a density of 850 ± 350 kg m–3. We therefore suggest that ingression of magmatic CO2 can explain the geodetic, gravity and seismic data, although some contribution of magma cannot be excluded.
The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 56 million years ago) offers a primary analogue for future global warming and carbon cycle recovery. Yet, where and how massive carbon emissions were mitigated during this climate warming event remains largely unknown. Here we show that organic carbon burial in the vast epicontinental seaways that extended over Eurasia provided a major carbon sink during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. We coupled new and existing stratigraphic analyses to a detailed paleogeographic framework and using spatiotemporal interpolation calculated ca. 720–1300 Gt organic carbon excess burial, focused in the eastern parts of the Eurasian epicontinental seaways. A much larger amount (2160–3900 Gt C, and when accounting for the increase in inundated shelf area 7400–10300 Gt C) could have been sequestered in similar environments globally. With the disappearance of most epicontinental seas since the Oligocene-Miocene, an effective negative carbon cycle feedback also disappeared making the modern carbon cycle critically dependent on the slower silicate weathering feedback.
An earthquake swarm affected the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica, a unique rift basin in transition from intra-arc rifting to ocean spreading. The swarm, counting similar to 85,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes since August 2020, is located close to the Orca submarine volcano, previously considered inactive. Simultaneously, geodetic data reported up to similar to 11 cm north-westward displacement over King George Island. We use a broad variety of geophysical data and methods to reveal the complex migration of seismicity, accompanying the intrusion of 0.26-0.56 km(3) of magma. Strike-slip earthquakes mark the intrusion at depth, while shallower normal faulting the similar to 20 km long lateral growth of a dike. Seismicity abruptly decreased after a Mw 6.0 earthquake, suggesting the magmatic dike lost pressure with the slipping of a large fault. A seafloor eruption is likely, but not confirmed by sea surface temperature anomalies. The unrest documents episodic magmatic intrusion in the Bransfield Strait, providing unique insights into active continental rifting.
Arctic coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising sea levels and the loss of permafrost, sea ice and glaciers. Assessing the influence of anthropogenic warming on Arctic coastal dynamics, however, is challenged by the limited availability of observational, oceanographic and environmental data. Yet, with the majority of permafrost coasts being erosive, coupled with projected intensification of erosion and flooding, understanding these changes is critical. In this Review, we describe the morphological diversity of Arctic coasts, discuss important drivers of coastal change, explain the specific sensitivity of Arctic coasts to climate change and provide an overview of pan-Arctic shoreline change and its multifaceted impacts. Arctic coastal changes impact the human environment by threatening coastal settlements, infrastructure, cultural sites and archaeological remains. Changing sediment fluxes also impact the natural environment through carbon, nutrient and pollutant release on a magnitude that remains difficult to predict. Increasing transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary collaboration efforts will build the foundation for identifying sustainable solutions and adaptation strategies to reduce future risks for those living on, working at and visiting the rapidly changing Arctic coast.
Integrated Seismic Program (ISP) is a graphical user interface designed to facilitate and provide a user-friendly framework for performing diverse common and advanced tasks in seismological research. ISP is composed of five main modules for earthquake location, time-frequency analysis and advanced signal processing, implementation of array techniques to estimate the slowness vector, seismic moment tensor inversion, and receiver function computation and analysis. In addition, several support tools are available, allowing the user to create an event database, download data from International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks services, inspect the background noise, and compute synthetic seismograms. ISP is written in Python3, supported by several open-source and/or publicly available tools. Its modular design allows for new features to be added in a collaborative development environment.