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Business process management (BPM) is a systematic and structured approach to model, analyze, control, and execute business operations also referred to as business processes that get carried out to achieve business goals. Central to BPM are conceptual models. Most prominently, process models describe which tasks are to be executed by whom utilizing which information to reach a business goal. Process models generally cover the perspectives of control flow, resource, data flow, and information systems.
Execution of business processes leads to the work actually being carried out. Automating them increases the efficiency and is usually supported by process engines. This, though, requires the coverage of control flow, resource assignments, and process data. While the first two perspectives are well supported in current process engines, data handling needs to be implemented and maintained manually. However, model-driven data handling promises to ease implementation, reduces the error-proneness through graphical visualization, and reduces development efforts through code generation.
This thesis addresses the modeling, analysis, and execution of data in business processes and presents a novel approach to execute data-annotated process models entirely model-driven. As a first step and formal grounding for the process execution, a conceptual framework for the integration of processes and data is introduced. This framework is complemented by operational semantics through a Petri net mapping extended with data considerations. Model-driven data execution comprises the handling of complex data dependencies, process data, and data exchange in case of communication between multiple process participants. This thesis introduces concepts from the database domain into BPM to enable the distinction of data operations, to specify relations between data objects of the same as well as of different types, to correlate modeled data nodes as well as received messages to the correct run-time process instances, and to generate messages for inter-process communication. The underlying approach, which is not limited to a particular process description language, has been implemented as proof-of-concept.
Automation of data handling in business processes requires data-annotated and correct process models. Targeting the former, algorithms are introduced to extract information about data nodes, their states, and data dependencies from control information and to annotate the process model accordingly. Usually, not all required information can be extracted from control flow information, since some data manipulations are not specified. This requires further refinement of the process model. Given a set of object life cycles specifying allowed data manipulations, automated refinement of the process model towards containment of all data manipulations is enabled. Process models are an abstraction focusing on specific aspects in detail, e.g., the control flow and the data flow views are often represented through activity-centric and object-centric process models. This thesis introduces algorithms for roundtrip transformations enabling the stakeholder to add information to the process model in the view being most appropriate.
Targeting process model correctness, this thesis introduces the notion of weak conformance that checks for consistency between given object life cycles and the process model such that the process model may only utilize data manipulations specified directly or indirectly in an object life cycle. The notion is computed via soundness checking of a hybrid representation integrating control flow and data flow correctness checking. Making a process model executable, identified violations must be corrected. Therefore, an approach is proposed that identifies for each violation multiple, alternative changes to the process model or the object life cycles.
Utilizing the results of this thesis, business processes can be executed entirely model-driven from the data perspective in addition to the control flow and resource perspectives already supported before. Thereby, the model creation is supported by algorithms partly automating the creation process while model consistency is ensured by data correctness checks.
Hintergrund: In Deutschland stellt der akute Myokardinfarkt (MI) eine der häufigsten Todesursachen dar. Als Ursache für regionale Unterschiede bei den Mortalitätsraten werden divergente Versorgungsstrukturen vermutet. Ziel der Untersuchung war, diese Fragestellung anhand anonymisierter krankenkassenbasierter Abrechnungsdaten zu evaluieren.
Methodik: Standardisierte Hospitalisierungs- sowie Krankenhaus- und Ein-Jahres-Mortalitätsraten nach MI wurden anhand anonymisierter Versichertendaten einer gesetzlichen Krankenkasse für das Jahr 2012 und die Bundesländer Berlin, Brandenburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ermittelt (n=1.387.084, 46.3% male, 60.9 ± 18,2 years). Weiterhin wurden prädiktive Einflussfaktoren auf die Ein-Jahres-Mortalität, auf die Durchführung invasiver Prozeduren und auf eine leitliniengerechte pharmakotherapeutische Sekundärprävention analysiert.
Ergebnisse: 6.733 Patienten (73,7 ±13,0 Jahre, 56,7% männlich) wurden identifiziert. Obwohl für das Bundesland Berlin eine höhere Hospitalisierungsrate als in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ermittelt werden konnte, ließen sich bei der Krankenhaus- und 1-Jahres-Mortalität keine signifikant abweichenden Raten zwischen den Bundesländern beobachten. Die Durchführung einer Koronarangiographie (OR: 0,42 [0,35-0,51]) und eine leitliniengerechte Pharmakotherapie (OR: 0,14 [0,12-0,17] waren mit einer geringeren 1-Jahres-Mortalität assoziiert. Die Durchführung einer Koronarangiographie und eine leitliniengerechte Pharmakotherapie von Patienten nach Myokardinfarkt wurde hingegen primär durch Alter und Geschlecht, nicht aber durch das Bundesland determiniert.
Folgerung: Eine regional divergierende stationäre und postinfarzielle Versorgung auf Bundesland-Ebene kann anhand der vorliegenden Daten nicht nachgewiesen werden.
The Brazilian Cerrado is recognised as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural vegetation to intense cash crop production. The impacts of rapid agricultural expansion on soil and water resources are still poorly understood in the region. Therefore, the overall aim of the thesis is to improve our understanding of the ecohydrological processes causing water and soil degradation in the Brazilian Cerrado.
I first present a metaanalysis to provide quantitative evidence and identifying the main impacts of soil and water alterations resulting from land use change. Second, field studies were conducted to (i) examine the effects of land use change on soils of natural cerrado transformed to common croplands and pasture and (ii) indicate how agricultural production affects water quality across a meso-scale catchment. Third, the ecohydrological process-based model SWAT was tested with simple scenario analyses to gain insight into the impacts of land use and climate change on the water cycling in the upper São Lourenço catchment which experienced decreasing discharges in the last 40 years.
Soil and water quality parameters from different land uses were extracted from 89 soil and 18 water studies in different regions across the Cerrado. Significant effects on pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the cropland sites were N-fixing soybean cultivations, which are not artificially fertilized with N. By contrast, water quality studies showed N enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and EU water quality limits, which pose serious health risks.
My field study revealed that land conversion caused a significant reduction in infiltration rates near the soil surface of pasture (–96 %) and croplands (–90 % to –93 %). Soil aggregate stability was significantly reduced in croplands than in cerrado and pasture. Soybean crops had extremely high extractable P (80 mg kg–1), whereas pasture N levels declined. A snapshot water sampling showed strong seasonality in water quality parameters. Higher temperature, oxi-reduction potential (ORP), NO2–, and very low oxygen concentrations (<5 mg•l–1) and saturation (<60 %) were recorded during the rainy season. By contrast, remarkably high PO43– concentrations (up to 0.8 mg•l–1) were measured during the dry season. Water quality parameters were affected by agricultural activities at all sampled sub-catchments across the catchment, regardless of stream characteristic. Direct NO3– leaching appeared to play a minor role; however, water quality is affected by topsoil fertiliser inputs with impact on small low order streams and larger rivers. Land conversion leaving cropland soils more susceptible to surface erosion by increased overland flow events.
In a third study, the field data were used to parameterise SWAT. The model was tested with different input data and calibrated in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI-2 algorithm. The model was judged reliable to simulate the water balance in the Cerrado. A complete cerrado, pasture and cropland cover was used to analyse the impact of land use on water cycling as well as climate change projections (2039–2058) according to the projections of the RCP 8.5 scenario. The actual evapotranspiration (ET) for the cropland scenario was higher compared to the cerrado cover (+100 mm a–1). Land use change scenarios confirmed that deforestation caused higher annual ET rates explaining partly the trend of decreased streamflow. Taking all climate change scenarios into account, the most likely effect is a prolongation of the dry season (by about one month), with higher peak flows in the rainy season. Consequently, potential threats for crop production with lower soil moisture and increased erosion and sediment transport during the rainy season are likely and should be considered in adaption plans.
From the three studies of the thesis I conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado’s future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available for the vast biome, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This thesis may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado in the future.
In many procedures of seismic risk mitigation, ground motion simulations are needed to test systems or improve their effectiveness. For example they may be used to estimate the level of ground shaking caused by future earthquakes. Good physical models for ground motion simulation are also thought to be important for hazard assessment, as they could close gaps in the existing datasets. Since the observed ground motion in nature shows a certain variability, part of which cannot be explained by macroscopic parameters such as magnitude or position of an earthquake, it would be desirable that a good physical model is not only able to produce one single seismogram, but also to reveal this natural variability.
In this thesis, I develop a method to model realistic ground motions in a way that is computationally simple to handle, permitting multiple scenario simulations. I focus on two aspects of ground motion modelling. First, I use deterministic wave propagation for the whole frequency range – from static deformation to approximately 10 Hz – but account for source variability by implementing self-similar slip distributions and rough fault interfaces. Second, I scale the source spectrum so that the modelled waveforms represent the correct radiated seismic energy. With this scaling I verify whether the energy magnitude is suitable as an explanatory variable, which characterises the amount of energy radiated at high frequencies – the advantage of the energy magnitude being that it can be deduced from observations, even in real-time.
Applications of the developed method for the 2008 Wenchuan (China) earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake and the 1994 Northridge (California, USA) earthquake show that the fine source discretisations combined with the small scale source variability ensure that high frequencies are satisfactorily introduced, justifying the deterministic wave propagation approach even at high frequencies. I demonstrate that the energy magnitude can be used to calibrate the high-frequency content in ground motion simulations.
Because deterministic wave propagation is applied to the whole frequency range, the simulation method permits the quantification of the variability in ground motion due to parametric uncertainties in the source description. A large number of scenario simulations for an M=6 earthquake show that the roughness of the source as well as the distribution of fault dislocations have a minor effect on the simulated variability by diminishing directivity effects, while hypocenter location and rupture velocity more strongly influence the variability. The uncertainty in energy magnitude, however, leads to the largest differences of ground motion amplitude between different events, resulting in a variability which is larger than the one observed.
For the presented approach, this dissertation shows (i) the verification of the computational correctness of the code, (ii) the ability to reproduce observed ground motions and (iii) the validation of the simulated ground motion variability. Those three steps are essential to evaluate the suitability of the method for means of seismic risk mitigation.
Arthur Ewert (1890-1959)
(2015)
Arthur Ewert (1890-1959) war in den zwanziger und frühen dreißiger Jahren ein wichtiger Funktionär der Kommunistischen Partei Deutschlands und der Kommunistischen Internationale.
Er wurde in der Familie eines armen Bauern in Ostpreußen geboren. Nach dem Abschluß der Schule ging er nach Berlin, um hier eine Lehre als Sattler zu absolvieren. Über die Berliner Arbeiterjugendbewegung fand er Kontakt zur Sozialdemokratischen Partei Deutschlands, deren Mitglied er 1908 wurde.
Im Mai 1914 emigrierte er gemeinsam mit seiner langjährigen Lebensgefährtin und späteren Ehefrau Elise Saborowski (1886-1939) nach Nordamerika, wo er sich sofort der sozialistischen Bewegung anschloß. Anfang 1919 gehörte er zu den Mitbegründern der ersten Kommunistischen Partei Kanadas.
Im Sommer 1919 kehrte er nach Deutschland zurück und wurde Mitglied der wenige Monate zuvor gegründeten KPD.
Auf dem Leipziger Parteitag der KPD im Februar 1923 wurde er in die zwanzigköpfige Zentrale seiner Partei gewählt und stieg damit in den engeren Führungszirkel auf.
Nach der gescheiterten »Deutschen Oktoberrevolution« im Herbst 1923 kämpfte er gemeinsam mit Ernst Meyer, Hugo Eberlein, Wilhelm Pieck und anderen um das Überleben der KPD, doch gelang es seiner Gruppe nicht, den Sieg der Linken und Ultralinken im parteiinternen Machtkampf zu verhindern. Ewert wurde politisch »kaltgestellt« und schied für mehr als ein Jahr aus der Parteiführung aus.
In dieser Zeit erfüllte er verschiedene Aufgaben für die Kommunistische Internationale. Bereits im Juni 1923 war er Berichterstatter zur Lage in der Norwegischen Arbeiterpartei gewesen, ab Ende 1924 war er Abgesandter bei der KP Großbritanniens. Im Sommer und Frühherbst 1927 hielt er sich mehrere Monate in den USA auf.
Im Sommer 1925 wurde er auf Veranlassung der Kommunistischen Internationale in die Führung der KPD zurückgeholt. Er trug wesentlich dazu bei, die Parteiführung unter Ernst Thälmann zu stabilisieren und sie – zumindest zeitweise – auf einen realpolitischen Kurs zu orientieren.
Mit dem erneuten »Links«-Schwenk der KPD ab Anfang 1928 wurde er als »Versöhnler« stigmatisiert und zunehmend zur Zielscheibe innerparteilicher Attacken. Der Versuch eines »Befreiungsschlages« unter Ausnutzung der sogenannten Wittorf-Affäre im Herbst 1928 scheiterte, bis zum Sommer 1929 wurde Arthur Ewert auf Drängen Stalins und mit ausdrücklicher Zustimmung Thälmanns aus allen Funktionen in der KPD entfernt.
Nach der Auflösung des Reichstags und dem damit verbundenen Verlust seines Reichstagsmandats im Juli 1930 schied Ewert endgültig aus der deutschen Parteiarbeit aus.
Ende 1930 wurde er zum Leiter des Südamerikanischen Büros der Kommunistischen Internationale in Montevideo, der Hauptstadt Uruguays, ernannt. Er trug damit Verantwortung für die unmittelbare Anleitung der Kommunistischen Parteien im sogenannten Südkegel Südamerikas. In diese Zeit fielen seine ersten Kontakte zu Luiz Carlos Prestes, dem legendären »Ritter der Hoffnung«, mit dem er ab Anfang 1935 in Brasilien zusammenarbeitete.
Von 1932 bis 1934 leitete Arthur Ewert das Büro der Kommunistischen Internationale in Shanghai und spielte dabei eine entscheidende Rolle zugunsten Mao Tse-tungs, dessen politisches Überleben er in einem innerparteilichen Machtkampf der KP Chinas sicherte.
Als Vertreter der Kommunistischen Internationale war Arthur Ewert im Verlaufe des Jahres 1935 an den Versuchen beteiligt, in Brasilien – gestützt auf ein breites Bündnis, die »Nationale Befreiungsallianz« - einen politischen Machtwechsel herbeizuführen. Nach dem Scheitern des von Prestes geführten Aufstandsversuches wurde er Ende 1935 verhaftet. Arthur Ewert verlor in Folge der barbarischen Folterungen in brasilianischer Haft den Verstand.
Er kam im Mai 1945 im Ergebnis einer Amnestie frei. 1947 gelang es seiner Schwester, ihn in die sowjetische Besatzungszone zurückzuholen. Die Ärzte dort konnten nur noch feststellen, daß eine Heilung unmöglich war. Arthur Ewert verbrachte den Rest seines Lebens in einem Pflegeheim in Eberswalde, wo er 1959 starb.
This PhD thesis is essentially a collection of six sequential articles on dynamics of accountability in the reformed employment and welfare administration in different countries. The first article examines how recent changes in the governance of employment services in three European countries (Denmark, Germany and Norway) have influenced accountability relationships from a very wide-ranging perspective. It starts from the overall assumption in the literature that accountability relationships are becoming more numerous and complex, and that these changes may lead to multiple accountability disorder. The article explores these assumptions by analyzing the different actors involved and the information requested in the new governance arrangements in all three countries. It concludes that the considerable changes in organizational arrangements and more managerial information demanded and provided have led to more shared forms of accountability. Nevertheless, a clear development towards less political or administrative accountability could not be observed.
The second article analyzes how the structure and development of reform processes affect accountability relationships and via what mechanisms. It is distinguished between an instrumental perspective and an institutional perspective and each of these perspectives takes a different view on the link between reforms and concrete action and results. By taking the welfare reforms in Norway and Germany as an example, it is shown that the reform outcomes in both countries are the result of a complex process of powering, puzzling and institutional constraints where different situational interpretations of problems, interests and administrative legacies had to be balanced. Accountability thus results not from a single process of environmental necessity or strategic choice, but from a dynamic interplay between different actors and institutional spheres.
The third article then covers a specific instrument of public sector reforms, i.e. the increasing use of performance management. The article discusses the challenges and ambiguities between performance management and different forms of accountability based on the cases of the reformed welfare administration in Norway and Germany. The findings are that the introduction of performance management creates new accountability structures which influence service delivery, but not necessarily in the direction expected by reform agents. Observed unintended consequences include target fixation, the displacement of political accountability and the predominance of control aspects of accountability.
The fourth article analyzes the accountability implications of the increasingly marketized models of welfare governance. It has often been argued that relocating powers and discretion to private contractors involve a trade-off between democratic accountability and efficiency. However, there is limited empirical evidence of how contracting out shapes accountability or is shaped by alternative democratic or administrative forms of accountability. Along these lines the article examines employment service accountability in the era of contracting out in Germany, Denmark and Great Britain. It is found that market accountability instruments are complementary instruments, not substitutes. The findings highlight the importance of administrative and political instruments in legitimizing marketized service provision and shed light on the processes that lead to the development of a hybrid accountability model.
The fifth and sixth articles focus on the diagonal accountability relationships between public agencies, supreme audit institutions (SAI) and parental ministry or parliament.
The fifth article examines the evolving role of SAIs in Denmark, Germany and Norway focusing particularly on their contribution to public accountability and their ambivalent relationship with some aspects of public sector reform in the welfare sector. The article analyzes how SAIs assess New Public Management inspired reforms in the welfare sector in the three countries. The analysis shows that all three SAIs have taken on an evaluative role when judging New Public Management instruments. At the same time their emphasis on legality and compliance can be at odds with some of the operating principles introduced by New Public Management reforms.
The sixth article focuses on the auditing activities of the German SAI in the field of labor market administration as a single in-depth case study. The purpose is to analyze how SAIs gain impact in diagonal accountability settings. The results show that the direct relationship between auditor and auditee based on cooperation and trust is of outstanding importance for SAIs to give effect to their recommendations. However, if an SAI has to rely on actors of diagonal accountability, it is in a vulnerable position as it might lose control over the interpretation of its results.
The main research question of this thesis concerns the relation between focus interpretation, focus realization, and association with focus in the West Chadic language Ngamo.
Concerning the relation between focus realization and interpretation, this thesis contributes to the question, cross-linguistically, what factors influence a marked realization of the focus/background distinction. There is background-marking rather than focus-marking in Ngamo, and the background marker is related to the definite determiner in the language. Using original fieldwork data as a basis, a formal semantic analysis of the background marker as a definite determiner of situations is proposed.
Concerning the relation between focus and association with focus, the thesis adds to the growing body of crosslinguistic evidence that not all so-called focus-sensitive operators always associate with focus. The thesis shows that while the exclusive particle yak('i) (= "only") in Ngamo conventionally associates
with focus, the particles har('i) (= "even, as far as, until, already"), and ke('e) (= "also, and") do not.
The thesis provides an analysis of these phenomena in a situation semantic framework.
Business Process Management has become an integral part of modern organizations in the private and public sector for improving their operations. In the course of Business Process Management efforts, companies and organizations assemble large process model repositories with many hundreds and thousands of business process models bearing a large amount of information. With the advent of large business process model collections, new challenges arise as structuring and managing a large amount of process models, their maintenance, and their quality assurance.
This is covered by business process architectures that have been introduced for organizing and structuring business process model collections. A variety of business process architecture approaches have been proposed that align business processes along aspects of interest, e. g., goals, functions, or objects. They provide a high level categorization of single processes ignoring their interdependencies, thus hiding valuable information. The production of goods or the delivery of services are often realized by a complex system of interdependent business processes. Hence, taking a holistic view at business processes interdependencies becomes a major necessity to organize, analyze, and assess the impact of their re-/design. Visualizing business processes interdependencies reveals hidden and implicit information from a process model collection.
In this thesis, we present a novel Business Process Architecture approach for representing and analyzing business process interdependencies on an abstract level. We propose a formal definition of our Business Process Architecture approach, design correctness criteria, and develop analysis techniques for assessing their quality. We describe a methodology for applying our Business Process Architecture approach top-down and bottom-up. This includes techniques for Business Process Architecture extraction from, and decomposition to process models while considering consistency issues between business process architecture and process model level. Using our extraction algorithm, we present a novel technique to identify and visualize data interdependencies in Business Process Data Architectures. Our Business Process Architecture approach provides business process experts,managers, and other users of a process model collection with an overview that allows reasoning about a large set of process models,
understanding, and analyzing their interdependencies in a facilitated way. In this regard we evaluated our Business Process Architecture approach in an experiment and provide implementations of selected techniques.
Der Beitrag der Dissertation „Theoriebasierte Betreuung vom Schulpraktikum im Lehramtsstudium Englisch“ zum wissenschaftlichen Diskurs liegt in der Verbindung von Theoriebereichen der Professionalisierungsforschung und angewandten Linguistik mit Untersuchungen zur hochschuldidaktischen Begleitung und Betreuung im ersten Unterrichtspraktikum des Lehramtsstudiums, dem fachdidaktischen Tagespraktikum, an der Universität Potsdam. Ein interaktionsanalytisches Vorgehen wurde eingesetzt zur Weiterentwicklung des hochschuldidaktischen Settings einer disziplinenverbindenden, fachwissenschaftlichen Begleitung von Praktika im komplexen Kontext Schule. Die Implementierung entsprechender Formate ins reguläre Studium wurde in einer über drei Jahre angelegten iterativen Studie turnusmäßig evaluiert.
Gut ausgebildete Schreibkompetenzen gelten als zentrale Voraussetzung für den schulischen Erfolg. Wenngleich die schriftliche Textproduktion unbestritten fester Bestandteil des Deutschunterrichts ist, wird vielfach beklagt, dass die vorhandenen Schreibkompetenzen unzureichend sind. Blickt man auf die fachdidaktische Forschung so zeigt sich, dass Schreibkompetenz ein schwer zu definierendes Phänomen bleibt und innerhalb der schreibdidaktischen Forschung strittig ist, wie Schreibkompetenz – insbesondere nach Erwerb der grundlegenden Schreibfertigkeiten – am Besten entwickelt werden kann. Zudem gilt für das Fach Deutsch, insbesondere den Aufgabenbereich „Texte verfassen“, das eine empirische Fundierung der Fachdidaktik bisher kaum realisiert wurde.
Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde in der vorgelegten Arbeit ein Programm zu Förderung der schriftlichen Erzählfähigkeit von Fünftklässlern entwickelt und anschließend in der regulären Unterrichtspraxis eingesetzt und begleitend evaluiert. Methodisch orientiert sich die Arbeit dabei im Hinblick auf die Konzeption, Umsetzung und Evaluation des Förderprogramms an den von Einsiedler postulierten „Standards der (didaktischen) Entwicklungsforschung“.
Bei der im ersten Schritt erfolgten Konzeption des Förderprogramms ging es darum eine spezifische, didaktische Konzeption, die Kombination sprachstruktur- und (lern)prozessbezogenener Elemente, sprachwissenschaftlich basiert und pädagogisch-didaktisch begründet zu entwickeln. Bei der hierzu notwendigen Integration verschiedener theoretischer Zugänge unterschiedlicher Fachdisziplinen galt es vorhandene Ansätze im Hinblick auf interne Anschlussmöglichkeiten auszuloten und auf diesem Wege einen sich gegenseitig ergänzenden, umfassenden Bezugsrahmen zu schaffen. Dabei gelang - unter Einbeziehung von Modellen und Befunden aus der Schreibentwicklungsforschung - die innerhalb der Schreibforschung vielfach geforderte, jedoch bisher fehlende Integration von strukturellen Ansätzen aus der linguistischen Schreibforschung mit den innerhalb der Kognitionspsychologie favorisierten prozessuellen Ansätzen.
Auf dieser Grundlage wurde ein aufgabenbasiertes Programm mit insgesamt acht verschiedenen Fördermodulen entwickelt, aufgabenbasiert deshalb, weil dies nicht nur einen lehrergesteuerten aber schülerzentrierten Unterricht ermöglicht, sondern auch einen adaptiven Unterricht, somit den spezifischen Anforderungen des Unterrichts in heterogenen Lerngruppen gerecht wird, was angesichts der zunehmenden (sprachlich-kulturellen) Heterogenität in regulären Schulklassen sinnvoll scheint.
In einem zweiten Schritt wurde innerhalb einer Pilotstudie die Umsetzbarkeit des Förderprogramms im schulischen Kontext erprobt. Unter Kontrolle seiner praktischen Umsetzbarkeit (Machbarkeitshypothese) wurde im Anschluss daran die Wirksamkeit des Förderprogramms im Hinblick auf eine Steigerung in den produktbezogenen Schreibmaßen (Wortschatzvarianz, Satzkomplexität, lexikalische Dichte, Kohäsionsgrade, Textlänge) und die Stabilität der Fördereffekte untersucht. Dies geschah mittels eines quasiexperimentellen Untersuchungsplans, genauer eines Zweigruppen-Pretest-Posttest-Follow-up-Plans mit Kontrollvariablen.
Grundlage hierfür war eine möglichst heterogene Stichprobe von knapp 200 Schüler/innen. Denn angesichts der angesprochenen zunehmenden Heterogenität in regulären Schulklassen galt es neben der Wirksamkeit und Nachhaltigkeit des Förderprogramms auch dessen Eignung für den Unterricht in heterogenen Lerngruppen zu prüfen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Prüfung sprechen dafür, dass es gelungen ist ein entsprechendes Förderprogramm zu entwickeln.
Trotz dem Auftreten von forschungsmethodischen Schwierigkeiten, die innerhalb der vorgelegten Arbeit ausführlich im Hinblick auf Ursachen und Wirkungen diskutiert werden, können, unter Berücksichtigung des explorativen Charakters der Studie, die Ergebnisse insbesondere zur Wortschatzvarianz und zur Satzkomplexität ebenfalls als Indizien für die Effektivität des Förderprogramms gelten.
Synchronization of large ensembles of oscillators is an omnipresent phenomenon observed in different fields of science like physics, engineering, life sciences, etc. The most simple setup is that of globally coupled phase oscillators, where all the oscillators contribute to a global field which acts on all oscillators. This formulation of the problem was pioneered by Winfree and Kuramoto. Such a setup gives a possibility for the analysis of these systems in terms of global variables. In this work we describe nontrivial collective dynamics in oscillator populations coupled via mean fields in terms of global variables. We consider problems which cannot be directly reduced to standard Kuramoto and Winfree models.
In the first part of the thesis we adopt a method introduced by Watanabe and Strogatz. The main idea is that the system of identical oscillators of particular type can be described by a low-dimensional system of global equations. This approach enables us to perform a complete analytical analysis for a special but vast set of initial conditions. Furthermore, we show how the approach can be expanded for some nonidentical systems. We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz approach to arrays of Josephson junctions and systems of identical phase oscillators with leader-type coupling.
In the next parts of the thesis we consider the self-consistent mean-field theory method that can be applied to general nonidentical globally coupled systems of oscillators both with or without noise. For considered systems a regime, where the global field rotates uniformly, is the most important one. With the help of this approach such solutions of the self-consistency equation for an arbitrary distribution of frequencies and coupling parameters can be found analytically in the parametric form, both for noise-free and noisy cases.
We apply this method to deterministic Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of spatially distributed oscillators with leader-type coupling. Furthermore, with the proposed self-consistent approach we fully characterize rotating wave solutions of noisy Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of noisy oscillators with bi-harmonic coupling.
Whenever possible, a complete analysis of global dynamics is performed and compared with direct numerical simulations of large populations.
Viele klinische Schnelltestsysteme benötigen vorpräparierte oder aufgereinigte Analyte mit frisch hergestellten Lösungen. Fernab standardisierter Laborbedingungen wie z.B. in Entwicklungsländern oder Krisengebieten sind solche Voraussetzungen oft nur unter einem hohen Aufwand herstellbar.
Zusätzlich stellt die erforderliche Sensitivität die Entwicklung einfach zu handhabender Testsysteme vor große Herausforderungen.
Autokatalytische Reaktionen, die sich mit Hilfe sehr geringer Initiatorkonzentrationen auslösen lassen, können hier eine Perspektive für Signalverstärkungsprozesse bieten.
Aus diesem Grund wird im ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit das Verhalten der autokatalytischen Arsenit-Jodat-Reaktion in einem mikrofluidischen Kanal untersucht. Dabei werden insbesondere die diffusiven und konvektiven Einflüsse auf die Reaktionskinetik im Vergleich zu makroskopischen Volumenmengen betrachtet.
Im zweiten Teil werden thermoresponsive Hydrogele mit einem kanalstrukturierten Papiernetzwerk zu einem neuartigen, kapillargetriebenen, extern steuerbaren Mikrofluidik-System kombiniert. Das hier vorgestellte Konzept durch Hydrogele ein papierbasiertes LOC-System zu steuern, ermöglicht zukünftig die Herstellung von komplexeren, steuerbaren Point-Of-Care Testsystemen (POCT). Durch z.B. einen thermischen Stimulus, wird das Lösungsverhalten eines Hydrogels so verändert, dass die gespeicherte Flüssigkeit freigesetzt und durch die Kapillarkraft des Papierkanals ins System transportiert wird. Die Eigenschaften dieses Gelnetzwerks können dabei so eingestellt werden, dass eine Freisetzung von Flüssigkeiten sogar bei Körpertemperatur möglich wäre und damit eine Anwendung gänzlich ohne weitere Hilfsmittel denkbar ist. Für die Anwendung notwendige Chemikalien oder Enzyme lassen sich hierbei bequem in getrocknetem Zustand im Papiersubstrat vorlagern und bei Bedarf in Lösung bringen.
Im abschließenden dritten Teil der Arbeit wird ein durch Hydrogele betriebener, Antikörper-basierter Mikroorganismenschnelltest für Escherichia coli präsentiert. Darüber hinaus wird weiterführend eine einfache Methode zur Funktionalisierung eines Hydrogels mit Biomolekülen über EDC/NHS-Kopplung vorgestellt.
Intuitively, it is clear that neural processes and eye movements in reading are closely connected, but only few studies have investigated both signals simultaneously. Instead, the usual approach is to record them in separate experiments and to subsequently consolidate the results. However, studies using this approach have shown that it is feasible to coregister eye movements and EEG in natural reading and contributed greatly to the understanding of oculomotor processes in reading. The present thesis builds upon that work, assessing to what extent coregistration can be helpful for sentence processing research.
In the first study, we explore how well coregistration is suited to study subtle effects common to psycholinguistic experiments by investigating the effect of distance on dependency resolution. The results demonstrate that researchers must improve the signal-to-noise ratio to uncover more subdued effects in coregistration. In the second study, we compare oscillatory responses in different presentation modes. Using robust effects from world knowledge violations, we show that the generation and retrieval of memory traces may differ between natural reading and word-by-word presentation. In the third study, we bridge the gap between our knowledge of behavioral and neural responses to integration difficulties in reading by analyzing the EEG in the context of regressive saccades. We find the P600, a neural indicator of recovery processes, when readers make a regressive saccade in response to integration difficulties.
The results in the present thesis demonstrate that coregistration can be a useful tool for the study of sentence processing. However, they also show that it may not be suitable for some questions, especially if they involve subtle effects.
The Tien-Shan and the neighboring Pamir region are two of the largest mountain belts in the world. Their deformation is dominated by intermontane basins bounded by active thrust and reverse faulting. The Tien-Shan mountain belt is characterized by a very high rate of seismicity along its margins as well as within the Tien-Shan interior. The study area of the here presented thesis, the western part of the Tien-Shan region, is currently seismically active with small and moderate sized earthquakes. However, at the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century, this region was struck by a remarkable series of large magnitude (M>7) earthquakes, two of them reached magnitude 8.
Those large earthquakes occurred prior to the installation of the global digital seismic network and therefore were recorded only by analog seismic instruments. The processing of the analog data brings several difficulties, for example, not always the true parameters of the recording system are known. Another complicated task is the digitization of those records - a very time-consuming and delicate part. Therefore a special set of techniques is developed and modern methods are adapted for the digitized instrumental data analysis.
The main goal of the presented thesis is to evaluate the impact of large magnitude M≥7.0 earthquakes, which occurred at the turn of 19th to 20th century in the Tien-Shan region, on the overall regional tectonics. A further objective is to investigate the accuracy of previously estimated source parameters for those earthquakes, which were mainly based on macroseismic observations, and re-estimate them based on the instrumental data. An additional aim of this study is to develop the tools and methods for faster and more productive usage of analog seismic data in modern seismology.
In this thesis, the ten strongest and most interesting historical earthquakes in Tien-Shan region are analyzed. The methods and tool for digitizing and processing the analog seismic data are presented. The source parameters of the two major M≥8.0 earthquakes in the Northern Tien-Shan are re-estimated in individual case studies. Those studies are published as peer-reviewed scientific articles in reputed journals. Additionally, the Sarez-Pamir earthquake and its connection with one of the largest landslides in the world, Usoy landslide, is investigated by seismic modeling. These results are also published as a research paper.
With the developed techniques, the source parameters of seven more major earthquakes in the region are determined and their impact on the regional tectonics was investigated. The large magnitudes of those earthquakes are confirmed by instrumental data. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes were determined providing evidence for responsible faults or fault systems.
Aufgrund ihrer potenziell gesundheitsfördernden Wirkung sind die polyphenolischen Isoflavone für die menschliche Ernährung von großem Interesse. Eine Vielzahl an experimentellen und epidemiologischen Studien zeigen für die in Soja enthaltenen Isoflavone Daidzein und Genistein eine präventive Wirkung bezüglich hormon-abhängiger und altersbedingter Erkrankungen, wie Brust- und Prostatakrebs, Osteoporose, Herz-Kreislauf-Erkrankungen sowie des menopausalen Syndroms. Die Metabolisierung und Bioaktivierung dieser sekundären Pflanzenstoffe durch die humane intestinale Darmmikrobiota ist individuell unterschiedlich. Nur in einem geringen Teil der westlichen Bevölkerung wird der Daidzein-Metabolit Equol durch spezifische Darmbakterien gebildet. Ein isoliertes Equol-produzierendes Bakterium des menschlichen Darmtrakts ist Slackia isoflavoniconvertens. Anhand dieser Spezies sollten die bislang unbekannten, an der Umsetzung von Daidzein und Genistein beteiligten Enzyme identifiziert und charakterisiert werden.
Fermentationsexperimente mit S. isoflavoniconvertens zeigten, dass die Gene der Daidzein und Genistein-umsetzenden Enzyme nicht konstitutiv exprimiert werden, sondern induziert werden müssen. Mit Hilfe der zweidimensionalen differentiellen Gelelektrophorese wurden sechs Proteine detektiert, welche in einer S. isoflavoniconvertens-Kultur in Anwesenheit von Daidzein induziert wurden. Auf Grundlage einzelner Peptidsequenzen erfolgte die Sequenzierung eines Genkomplexes mit den in gleicher Orientierung angeordneten Genen der durch Daidzein induzierten Proteine. Sequenzvergleiche identifizierten zudem äquivalente Genprodukte zu den Proteinen von S. isoflavoniconvertens in anderen Equolproduzierenden Bakterien. Nach der heterologen Expression in Escherichia coli wurden drei dieser Gene durch enzymatische Aktivitätstests als Daidzein-Reduktase (DZNR), Dihydrodaidzein-Reduktase (DHDR) und Tetrahydrodaidzein-Reduktase (THDR) identifiziert. Die Kombination der E. coli-Zellextrakte führte zur vollständigen Umsetzung von Daidzein über Dihydrodaidzein zu Equol. Neben Daidzein setzte die DZNR auch Genistein zu Dihydrogenistein um. Dies erfolgte mit einer größeren Umsatzgeschwindigkeit im Vergleich zur Reduktion von Daidzein zu Dihydrodaidzein. Enzymatische Aktivitätstests mit dem Zellextrakt von S. isoflavoniconvertens zeigten ebenfalls eine schnellere Umsetzung von Genistein. Die Kombination der rekombinanten DHDR und THDR führte zur Umsetzung von Dihydrodaidzein zu Equol. Der korrespondierende Metabolit 5-Hydroxyequol konnte als Endprodukt des Genistein-Metabolismus nicht detektiert werden. Zur Reinigung der drei identifizierten Reduktasen wurden diese genetisch an ein Strep-tag fusioniert und mittels Affinitätschromatographie gereinigt. Die übrigen durch Daidzein induzierten Proteine IfcA, IfcBC und IfcE wurden ebenfalls in E. coli exprimiert und als Strep-Fusionsproteine gereinigt. Vergleichende Aktivitätstests identifizierten das induzierte Protein IfcA als Dihydrodaidzein-Racemase. Diese katalysierte die Umsetzung des (R)- und (S)-Enantiomers von Dihydrodaidzein und Dihydrogenistein zum korrespondierenden Racemat. Neben dem Elektronentransfer-Flavoprotein IfcBC wurden auch die THDR, DZNR und IfcE als FAD-haltige Flavoproteine identifiziert. Zudem handelte es sich bei IfcE um ein Eisen-Schwefel-Protein. Nach Induktion der für die Daidzein-Umsetzung kodierenden Gene wurden mehrere verschieden lange mRNA-Transkripte gebildet. Dies zeigte, dass die Transkription des durch Daidzein induzierten Genkomplexes in S. isoflavoniconvertens nicht in Form eines einzelnen Operonsystems erfolgte.
Auf Grundlage der identifizierten Daidzein-umsetzenden Enzyme kann der Mechanismus der bakteriellen Umsetzung von Isoflavonen durch S. isoflavoniconvertens eingehend erforscht werden. Die ermittelten Gensequenzen der durch Daidzein induzierten Proteine sowie die korrespondierenden Gene weiterer Equol-produzierender Bakterien bieten zudem die Möglichkeit der mikrobiellen Metagenomanalyse im humanen Darmtrakt.
This dissertation investigates the working memory mechanism subserving human sentence processing and its relative contribution to processing difficulty as compared to syntactic prediction. Within the last decades, evidence for a content-addressable memory system underlying human cognition in general has accumulated (e.g., Anderson et al., 2004). In sentence processing research, it has been proposed that this general content-addressable architecture is also used for language processing (e.g., McElree, 2000).
Although there is a growing body of evidence from various kinds of linguistic dependencies that is consistent with a general content-addressable memory subserving sentence processing (e.g., McElree et al., 2003; VanDyke2006), the case of reflexive-antecedent dependencies has challenged this view. It has been proposed that in the processing of reflexive-antecedent dependencies, a syntactic-structure based memory access is used rather than cue-based retrieval within a content-addressable framework (e.g., Sturt, 2003).
Two eye-tracking experiments on Chinese reflexives were designed to tease apart accounts assuming a syntactic-structure based memory access mechanism from cue-based retrieval (implemented in ACT-R as proposed by Lewis and Vasishth (2005).
In both experiments, interference effects were observed from noun phrases which syntactically do not qualify as the reflexive's antecedent but match the animacy requirement the reflexive imposes on its antecedent. These results are interpreted as evidence against a purely syntactic-structure based memory access. However, the exact pattern of effects observed in the data is only partially compatible with the Lewis and Vasishth cue-based parsing model.
Therefore, an extension of the Lewis and Vasishth model is proposed. Two principles are added to the original model, namely 'cue confusion' and 'distractor prominence'.
Although interference effects are generally interpreted in favor of a content-addressable memory architecture, an alternative explanation for interference effects in reflexive processing has been proposed which, crucially, might reconcile interference effects with a structure-based account.
It has been argued that interference effects do not necessarily reflect cue-based retrieval interference in a content-addressable memory but might equally well be accounted for by interference effects which have already occurred at the moment of encoding the antecedent in memory (Dillon, 2011).
Three experiments (eye-tracking and self-paced reading) on German reflexives and Swedish possessives were designed to tease apart cue-based retrieval interference from encoding interference. The results of all three experiments suggest that there is no evidence that encoding interference affects the retrieval of a reflexive's antecedent.
Taken together, these findings suggest that the processing of reflexives can be explained with the same cue-based retrieval mechanism that has been invoked to explain syntactic dependency resolution in a range of other structures. This supports the view that the language processing system is located within a general cognitive architecture, with a general-purpose content-addressable working memory system operating on linguistic expressions.
Finally, two experiments (self-paced reading and eye-tracking) using Chinese relative clauses were conducted to determine the relative contribution to sentence processing difficulty of working-memory processes as compared to syntactic prediction during incremental parsing.
Chinese has the cross-linguistically rare property of being a language with subject-verb-object word order and pre-nominal relative clauses. This property leads to opposing predictions of expectation-based
accounts and memory-based accounts with respect to the relative processing difficulty of subject vs. object relatives.
Previous studies showed contradictory results, which has been attributed to different kinds local ambiguities confounding the materials (Lin and Bever, 2011). The two experiments presented are the first to compare Chinese relatives clauses in syntactically unambiguous contexts.
The results of both experiments were consistent with the predictions of the expectation-based account of sentence processing but not with the memory-based account. From these findings, I conclude that any theory of human sentence processing needs to take into account the power of predictive processes unfolding in the human mind.
This dissertation addresses the question of how linguistic structures can be represented in working memory. We propose a memory-based computational model that derives offline and online complexity profiles in terms of a top-down parser for minimalist grammars (Stabler, 2011). The complexity metric reflects the amount of time an item is stored in memory. The presented architecture links grammatical representations stored in memory directly to the cognitive behavior by deriving predictions about sentence processing difficulty.
Results from five different sentence comprehension experiments were used to evaluate the model's assumptions about memory limitations. The predictions of the complexity metric were compared to the locality (integration and storage) cost metric of Dependency Locality Theory (Gibson, 2000). Both metrics make comparable offline and online predictions for four of the five phenomena. The key difference between the two metrics is that the proposed complexity metric accounts for the structural complexity of intervening material. In contrast, DLT's integration cost metric considers the number of discourse referents, not the syntactic structural complexity.
We conclude that the syntactic analysis plays a significant role in memory requirements of parsing. An incremental top-down parser based on a grammar formalism easily computes offline and online complexity profiles, which can be used to derive predictions about sentence processing difficulty.
The dissertation proposes that the spread of photography and popular cinema in 19th- and 20th-century-India have shaped an aesthetic and affective code integral to the reading and interpretation of Indian English novels, particularly when they address photography and/or cinema film, as in the case of the four corpus texts. In analyzing the nexus between ‘real’ and ‘reel’, the dissertation shows how the texts address the reader as media consumer and virtual image projector. Furthermore, the study discusses the Indian English novel against the backdrop of the cultural and medial transformations of the 20th century to elaborate how these influenced the novel’s aesthetics. Drawing upon reception aesthetics, the author devises the concept of the ‘implied spectator’ to analyze the aesthetic impact of the novels’ images as visual textures.
No God in Sight (2005) by Altaf Tyrewala comprises of a string of 41 interior monologues, loosely connected through their narrators’ random encounters in Mumbai in the year 2000. Although marked by continuous perspective shifts, the text creates a sensation of acute immediacy. Here, the reader is addressed as implied spectator and is sutured into the narrated world like a film spectator ― an effect created through the use of continuity editing as a narrative technique.
Similarly, Ruchir Joshi’s The Last Jet Engine Laugh (2002) coll(oc)ates disparate narrative perspectives and explores photography as an artistic practice, historiographic recorder and epistemological tool. The narrative appears guided by the random viewing of old photographs by the protagonist and primary narrator, the photographer Paresh Bhatt. However, it is the photographic negative and the practice of superimposition that render this string of episodes and different perspectives narratively consequential and cosmologically meaningful. Photography thus marks the perfect symbiosis of autobiography and historiography.
Tabish Khair’s Filming. A Love Story (2007) immerses readers in the cine-aesthetic of 1930s and 40s Bombay film, the era in which the embedded plot is set. Plotline, central scenes and characters evoke the key films of Indian cinema history such as Satyajit Ray’s “Pather Panchali” or Raj Kapoor’s “Awara”. Ultimately, the text written as film dissolves the boundary between fiction and (narrated) reality, reel and real, thereby showing that the images of individual memory are inextricably intertwined with and shaped by collective memory. Ultimately, the reconstruction of the past as and through film(s) conquers trauma and endows the Partition of India as a historic experience of brutal contingency with meaning.
The Bioscope Man (Indrajit Hazra, 2008) is a picaresque narrative set in Calcutta - India’s cultural capital and birthplace of Indian cinema at the beginning of the 20th century. The autodiegetic narrator Abani Chatterjee relates his rise and fall as silent film star, alternating between the modes of tell and show. He is both autodiegetic narrator and spectator or perceiving consciousness, seeing himself in his manifold screen roles. Beyond his film roles however, the narrator remains a void. The marked psychoanalytical symbolism of the text is accentuated by repeated invocations of dark caves and the laterna magica. Here too, ‘reel life’ mirrors and foreshadows real life as Indian and Bengali history again interlace with private history. Abani Chatterjee thus emerges as a quintessentially modern man of no qualities who assumes definitive shape only in the lost reels of the films he starred in.
The final chapter argues that the static images and visual frames forwarded in the texts observe an integral psychological function: Premised upon linear perspective they imply a singular, static subjectivity appealing to the postmodern subject. In the corpus texts, the rise of digital technology in the 1990s thus appears not so much to have displaced older image repertories, practices and media techniques, than it has lent them greater visibility and appeal. Moreover, bricolage and pastiche emerge as cultural techniques which marked modernity from its inception. What the novels thus perpetuate is a media archeology not entirely servant to the poetics of the real. The permeable subject and the notion of the gaze as an active exchange as encapsulated in the concept of darshan - ideas informing all four texts - bespeak the resilience of a mythical universe continually re-instantiated in new technologies and uses. Eventually, the novels convey a sense of subalternity to a substantially Hindu nationalist history and historiography, the centrifugal force of which developed in the twentieth century and continues into the present.
The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage.
Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities.
The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.
Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis.
Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73%, P2O5 by 22-46%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4% to 16%.
In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.