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The Alborz range of N Iran provides key information on the spatiotemporal evolution and characteristics of the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. The southwestern Alborz range constitutes a transpressional duplex, which accommodates oblique shortening between Central Iran and the South Caspian Basin. The duplex comprises NW-striking frontal ramps that are kinematically linked to inherited E-W-striking, right-stepping lateral to obliquely oriented ramps. New zircon and apatite (U-Th)/He data provide a high-resolution framework to unravel the evolution of collisional tectonics in this region. Our data record two pulses of fast cooling associated with SW-directed thrusting across the frontal ramps at similar to 18-14 and 9.5-7.5 Ma, resulting in the tectonic repetition of a fossil zircon partial retention zone and a cooling pattern with a half U-shaped geometry. Uniform cooling ages of similar to 7-6 Ma along the southernmost E-W striking oblique ramp and across its associated NW-striking frontal ramps suggests that the ramp was reactivated as a master throughgoing, N-dipping thrust. We interpret this major change in fault kinematics and deformation style to be related to a change in the shortening direction from NE to N/NNE. The reduction in the obliquity of thrusting may indicate the termination of strike-slip faulting (and possibly thrusting) across the Iranian Plateau, which could have been triggered by an increase in elevation. Furthermore, we suggest that similar to 7-6-m.y.-old S-directed thrusting predated inception of the westward motion of the South Caspian Basin. Citation: Ballato, P., D. F. Stockli, M. R. Ghassemi, A. Landgraf, M. R. Strecker, J. Hassanzadeh, A. Friedrich, and S. H. Tabatabaei (2012), Accommodation of transpressional strain in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone: new constraints from (U-Th)/He thermochronology in the Alborz mountains.
From 6 to 9 August 2012, intense rainfall hit the northern Philippines, causing massive floods in Metropolitan Manila and nearby regions. Local rain gauges recorded almost 1000mm within this period. However, the recently installed Philippine network of weather radars suggests that Metropolitan Manila might have escaped a potentially bigger flood just by a whisker, since the centre of mass of accumulated rainfall was located over Manila Bay. A shift of this centre by no more than 20 km could have resulted in a flood disaster far worse than what occurred during Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009.
The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.
Due to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management. In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values (purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002 floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed.
Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied - even in different geographical regions - without further validation, mainly due to the lack of real damage data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions from different geographical regions in Central Europe for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated with official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and more similar regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous data sets of different regions and flood events. While former loss functions estimate the observed damage well, the latter overestimate the reported loss clearly. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was calculated. In the case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, our results reveal evidently that a carefree model transfer in other geographical regions might be critical. Therefore, we conclude that loss models should at least be selected or derived from related regions with similar flood and building characteristics, as far as no model validation is possible. To further increase the general reliability of flood loss assessment in the future, more loss data and more comprehensive loss data for model development and validation are needed.
Value creation in scene-based music production - the case of electronic club music in Germany
(2013)
The focus of this article is on the variability of value creation in the popular music industry. Recent trends in electronic music have been based on both the valorization of global tastes and of local specialities in performance and production. Depending on musical styles and market niches, local scenes have become important forces behind heterogeneous globalocal markets. At the same time, technological change and the virtualization of music production and distribution contribute to increasingly differentiated configurations of value creation. It is therefore necessary to reconstruct theoretically and empirically the new interplay among the local music production, digital media markets, and virtual communities that are involved. On the basis of empirical explorations in a German hot spot of electronic club-music production (the city of Berlin), the article indentifies local interaction practice and constellations of stakeholders. The findings show that value creation in these rapidly changing production scenes has moved away from the large-scale distribution of producer-induced media to audience-induced live performance and interactive soundtrack production. This change involves the rising importance of cultural embeddings such as taste building, reputation building among artists and producers, and local community building. Starting from an open theoretical problematization of value creation with regard to fluid scenes and shifting modes of production, the results of first empirical reconstructions are taken as inputs to an evolving discussion on the configurations of value creation in consumer-based strands of music production.
This study follows up on a previous downscaling intercomparison for present climate. Using a larger set of eight methods the authors downscale atmospheric fields representing present (1981-2000) and future (2046-65) conditions, as simulated by six global climate models following three emission scenarios. Local extremes were studied at 20 locations in British Columbia as measured by the same set of 27 indices, ClimDEX, as in the precursor study. Present and future simulations give 2 x 3 x 6 x 8 x 20 x 27 = 155 520 index climatologies whose analysis in terms of mean change and variation is the purpose of this study. The mean change generally reinforces what is to be expected in a warmer climate: that extreme cold events become less frequent and extreme warm events become more frequent, and that there are signs of more frequent precipitation extremes. There is considerable variation, however, about this tendency, caused by the influence of scenario, climate model, downscaling method, and location. This is analyzed using standard statistical techniques such as analysis of variance and multidimensional scaling, along with an assessment of the influence of each modeling component on the overall variation of the simulated change. It is found that downscaling generally has the strongest influence, followed by climate model; location and scenario have only a minor influence. The influence of downscaling could be traced back in part to various issues related to the methods, such as the quality of simulated variability or the dependence on predictors. Using only methods validated in the precursor study considerably reduced the influence of downscaling, underpinning the general need for method verification.
Moroccans are the largest group of immigrants in Spain. Once they arrive at the new place, one of their first necessities is to access shelter. Focusing on the south-eastern region of Murcia in Spain and combining quantitative and qualitative data, I explore the process of housing market integration of Moroccan migrants. Special attention is paid to the dynamics of this process and the role that the interaction between the supply side and the foreign demand of accommodation plays. Thereby, I will emphasise how an unfavourable structure of the housing market, along with behaviour of local private landlords on the supply side leads to considerable problems concerning the housing market integration of migrants in Spain. Thus, this paper aims to give a more accurate interpretation of the dynamics influencing the housing outcomes of migrants in the studied area.
The impact of inclined faults on the hydrothermal field is assessed by adding simplified structural settings to synthetic models. This study is innovative in carrying out numerical simulations because it integrates the real 3-D nature of flow influenced by a fault in a porous medium, thereby providing a useful tool for complex geothermal modelling. The 3-D simulations for the coupled fluid flow and heat transport processes are based on the finite element method. In the model, one geological layer is dissected by a dipping fault. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to quantify the effects of the fault's transmissivity on the fluid flow and thermal field. Different fault models are compared with a model where no fault is present to evaluate the effect of varying fault transmissivity. The results show that faults have a significant impact on the hydrothermal field. Varying either the fault zone width or the fault permeability will result in relevant differences in the pressure, velocity and temperature field. A linear relationship between fault zone width and fluid velocity is found, indicating that velocities increase with decreasing widths. The faults act as preferential pathways for advective heat transport in case of highly transmissive faults, whereas almost no fluid may be transported through poorly transmissive faults.
Die automatisierte Objektidentifikation stellt ein modernes Werkzeug in den Geoinformationswissenschaften dar (BLASCHKE et al., 2012). Um bei thematischen Kartierungen untereinander vergleichbare Ergebnisse zu erzielen, sollen aus Sicht der Geoinformatik Mittel für die Objektidentifikation eingesetzt werden. Anstelle von Feldarbeit werden deshalb in der vorliegenden Arbeit multispektrale Fernerkundungsdaten als Primärdaten verwendet. Konkrete natürliche Objekte werden GIS-gestützt und automatisiert über große Flächen und Objektdichten aus Primärdaten identifiziert und charakterisiert. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wird eine automatisierte Prozesskette zur Objektidentifikation konzipiert. Es werden neue Ansätze und Konzepte der objektbasierten Identifikation von natürlichen isolierten terrestrischen Oberflächenformen entwickelt und implementiert. Die Prozesskette basiert auf einem Konzept, das auf einem generischen Ansatz für automatisierte Objektidentifikation aufgebaut ist. Die Prozesskette kann anhand charakteristischer quantitativer Parameter angepasst und so umgesetzt werden, womit das Konzept der Objektidentifikation modular und skalierbar wird. Die modulbasierte Architektur ermöglicht den Einsatz sowohl einzelner Module als auch ihrer Kombination und möglicher Erweiterungen. Die eingesetzte Methodik der Objektidentifikation und die daran anschließende Charakteristik der (geo)morphometrischen und morphologischen Parameter wird durch statistische Verfahren gestützt. Diese ermöglichen die Vergleichbarkeit von Objektparametern aus unterschiedlichen Stichproben. Mit Hilfe der Regressionsund Varianzanalyse werden Verhältnisse zwischen Objektparametern untersucht. Es werden funktionale Abhängigkeiten der Parameter analysiert, um die Objekte qualitativ zu beschreiben. Damit ist es möglich, automatisiert berechnete Maße und Indizes der Objekte als quantitative Daten und Informationen zu erfassen und unterschiedliche Stichproben anzuwenden. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit bilden Thermokarstseen die Grundlage für die Entwicklungen und als Beispiel sowie Datengrundlage für den Aufbau des Algorithmus und die Analyse. Die Geovisualisierung der multivariaten natürlichen Objekte wird für die Entwicklung eines besseren Verständnisses der räumlichen Relationen der Objekte eingesetzt. Kern der Geovisualisierung ist das Verknüpfen von Visualisierungsmethoden mit kartenähnlichen Darstellungen.
Large Central European flood events of the past have demonstrated that flooding can affect several river basins at the same time leading to catastrophic economic and humanitarian losses that can stretch emergency resources beyond planned levels of service. For Germany, the spatial coherence of flooding, the contributing processes and the role of trans-basin floods for a national risk assessment is largely unknown and analysis is limited by a lack of systematic data, information and knowledge on past events. This study investigates the frequency and intensity of trans-basin flood events in Germany. It evaluates the data and information basis on which knowledge about trans-basin floods can be generated in order to improve any future flood risk assessment. In particu-lar, the study assesses whether flood documentations and related reports can provide a valuable data source for understanding trans-basin floods. An adaptive algorithm was developed that systematically captures trans-basin floods using series of mean daily discharge at a large number of sites of even time series length (1952-2002). It identifies the simultaneous occurrence of flood peaks based on the exceedance of an initial threshold of a 10 year flood at one location and consecutively pools all causally related, spatially and temporally lagged peak recordings at the other locations. A weighted cumulative index was developed that accounts for the spatial extent and the individual flood magnitudes within an event and allows quantifying the overall event severity. The parameters of the method were tested in a sensitivity analysis. An intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood-relevant publications in Germany was conducted. Based on the method of systematic reviews a strategic search approach was developed to identify relevant documentations for each of the 40 strongest trans-basin flood events. A novel framework for assessing the quality of event specific flood reports from a user’s perspective was developed and validated by independent peers. The framework was designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard type and assesses the quality of a document addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. The analysis of time-series of mean daily discharge resulted in the identification of 80 trans-basin flood events within the period 1952-2002 in Germany. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. The occurrence of floods is characterised by a distinct clustering in time. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second sub-period. A large body of 186 flood relevant documentations was identified. For 87.5% of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany at least one report has been found and for the most severe floods a substantial amount of documentation could be obtained. 80% of the material can be considered grey literature (i.e. literature not controlled by commercial publishers). The results of the quality assessment show that the majority of flood event specific reports are of a good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The inclusion of this information in the process of knowledge building for flood risk assessment is recommended. Both the results as well as the data produced in this study are openly accessible and can be used for further research. The results of this study contribute to an improved spatial risk assessment in Germany. The identified set of trans-basin floods provides the basis for an assessment of the chance that flooding occurs simultaneously at a number of sites. The information obtained from flood event documentation can usefully supplement the analysis of the processes that govern flood risk.
As Albania is accelerating its preparations towards the European Union candidate status, numerous areas of public policy and practices undergo intensive development processes. Regional development policy is a very new area of public policy in Albania, and needs research and development. This study focuses on the process of sustainable development in Albania, by analyzing and comparing the regional development of regions of Tirana, Shkodra and Kukes. The methodology used consists of a literature/desk review; analytical and comparative approach; qualitative interviews; quantitative data collection; analysis. The research is organized in five chapters. First chapter provides an overview of the study framework. The second outlines the theory and scientific framework for sustainable and regional development in relation with geography. The third chapter presents the picture of the regional development in Albania, analyzing the disparities and regional development in the light of EU requirements and NUTS division. Chapter 4 continues by analyzing and comparing the regional development of the regions: Tirana – driver for change, Shkodra – the North in Development and Kukes – the “shrinking” region. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions and recommendations. This research comes to the conclusions that if growth in Albania is to be increased and sustained, a regional development policy needs to be established.
Das rasant voranschreitende Wirtschaftswachstum Chiles in Zusammenhang mit einer sehr liberalen Wirtschafts- und Stadtentwicklungspolitik ist Ursache für eine tiefgreifende gesellschaftliche und urbane Umstrukturierung der chilenischen Hauptstadt. Die Nutznießer dieser Entwicklung sind in jüngster Zeit besonders auch Angehörige der unteren Mittelschicht, für die eigens preiswerte bewachte und umzäunte Wohnprojekte ins Leben gerufen werden. Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Untersuchung war es, diese sich neu formierende Gesellschaftsschicht genauer zu betrachten und zu untersuchen, mit welchen Anpassungshandlungen diese auf die veränderten Lebens- und Wohnbedingungen innerhalb dieser sogenannten condominios reagieren. Das Konzept condominio scheint zunächst die ideale Antwort auf zahlreiche Handlungsprobleme zu sein; das Wohnen im abgeschlossenen Wohnviertel gibt das Gefühl der Sicherheit und Kontrolle der unmittelbaren Umgebung und ist durch seine Exklusivität gleichzeitig ein willkommenes Statussymbol. Erst auf den zweiten Blick wird sichtbar, was das condominio nicht leisten kann und welche weiteren Probleme mit dem Wohnen im abgeschlossenen Viertel entstehen. Im Laufe der Analyse wurde jedoch die trotz aller Problemlagen essentielle Bedeutung des condominios für ihre Bewohner erkennbar. Die neue Wohnform der unteren Mittelschicht ist nicht nur ein Produkt der sich in ihren Potentialen, Ansprüchen und Werten verändernden Anwohner. Sie wird auch aktiv für die Konstruktion von sozialen Identitäten genutzt und ist damit also zentrales Element in der Formation und Identifikation dieser Gesellschafts-schicht.
In den größten Städten Russlands werden aktuell Entwicklungstendenzen sichtbar, welche die Frage nach einem Ende der postsozialistischen Transformation aufwerfen. Ein Beispiel für derartige – posttransformative – Entwicklungstendenzen bildet die Planung und Verwirklichung ikonischer Architekturprojekte. Diese sollen vor allem Innovations- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit symbolisieren. Vor Ort sind sie aber insbesondere dann umstritten, wenn sie die überkommenen städtebaulichen Traditionen in Frage stellen. Besonders gut zeigt sich das beim Ochta-Zentrum, einem Geschäfts- und Kulturzentrum mit 400 m hoher Dominante, das nach dem Willen des Gazprom-Konzerns am Rande der historischen Innenstadt Sankt Petersburgs errichtet werden sollte. In der Hochphase der Diskussion beschäftigte das Projekt nicht nur die Stadtbevölkerung, sondern auch die Führungsriege der Russischen Föderation und die UNESCO. Die Analyse des Diskurses über das Ochta-Zentrum ermöglicht daher ebenso Erkenntnisse über Tendenzen der Stadtentwicklung Sankt Petersburgs wie über Strategien der russischen Innen- und Außenpolitik.