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Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of-and the interaction between-climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry C-14-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 C-14 dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity-whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition-can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.
Southeastern Tibetan Plateau growth revealed by inverse analysis of landscape evolution model
(2022)
The Cenozoic history of the Tibetan Plateau topography is critical for understanding the evolution of the Indian-Eurasian collision, climate, and biodiversity. However, the long-term growth and landscape evolution of the Tibetan Plateau remain ambiguous, it remains unclear if plateau uplift occurred soon after the India-Asia collision in the Paleogene (similar to 50-25 Ma) or later in the Neogene (similar to 20-5 Ma). Here, we reproduce the uplift history of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau using a 2D landscape evolution model, which simultaneously solves fluvial erosion and sediment transport processes in the drainage basins of the Three Rivers region (Yangtze, Mekong, and Salween Rivers). Our model was optimized through a formal inverse analysis with 20,000 forward simulations, which aims to reconcile the transient states of the present-day river profiles. The results, compared to existing paleoelevation and thermochronologic data, suggest initially low elevations (similar to 300-500 m) during the Paleogene, followed by a gradual southeastward propagation of topographic uplift of the plateau margin.
In the context of persistent images of self-perpetuated technologies, we discuss the interplay of digital technologies and organisational dynamics against the backdrop of systems theory. Building on the case of an international corporation that, during an agile reorganisation, introduced an AI-based personnel management platform, we show how technical systems produce a form of algorithmic contingency that subsequently leads to the emergence of formal and informal interaction systems. Using the concept of datafication, we explain how these interactions are barriers to the self-perpetuation of data-based decision-making, making it possible to take into consideration further decision factors and complementing the output of the platform. The research was carried out within the scope of the research project ‘Organisational Implications of Digitalisation: The Development of (Post-)Bureaucratic Organisational Structures in the Context of Digital Transformation’ funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
Fast-localized electron loss, resulting from interactions with electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, can produce deepening minima in phase space density (PSD) radial profiles. Here, we perform a statistical analysis of local PSD minima to quantify how readily these are associated with radiation belt depletions. The statistics of PSD minima observed over a year are compared to the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) simulations, both including and excluding EMIC waves. The observed minima distribution can only be achieved in the simulation including EMIC waves, indicating their importance in the dynamics of the radiation belts. By analyzing electron flux depletions in conjunction with the observed PSD minima, we show that, in the heart of the outer radiation belt (L* < 5), on average, 53% of multi-MeV electron depletions are associated with PSD minima, demonstrating that fast localized loss by interactions with EMIC waves are a common and crucial process for ultra-relativistic electron populations.
The investigation of stresses, faults, structure and seismic hazards requires a good understanding and mapping of earthquake rupture and slip. Constraining the finite source of earthquakes from seismic and geodetic waveforms is challenging because the directional effects of the rupture itself are small and dynamic numerical solutions often include a large number of free parameters. The computational effort is large and therefore difficult to use in an exploratory forward modelling or inversion approach. Here, we use a simplified self-similar fracture model with only a few parameters, where the propagation of the fracture front is decoupled from the calculation of the slip. The approximative method is flexible and computationally efficient. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the model with real-case examples of well-studied earthquakes. These include the M-w 8.3 2015 Illapel, Chile, megathrust earthquake at the plate interface of a subduction zone and examples of continental intraplate strike-slip earthquakes like the M-w 7.1 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, multisegment variable slip event or the M-w 7.5 2018 Palu, Indonesia, supershear earthquake. Despite the simplicity of the model, a large number of observational features ranging from different rupture-front isochrones and slip distributions to directional waveform effects or high slip patches are easy to model. The temporal evolution of slip rate and rise time are derived from the incremental growth of the rupture and the stress drop without imposing other constraints. The new model is fast and implemented in the open-source Python seismology toolbox Pyrocko, ready to study the physics of rupture and to be used in finite source inversions.
Electronic databases of landslides seldom include the triggering mechanisms, rendering these inventories unusable for landslide hazard modeling. We present a method for classifying the triggering mechanisms of landslides in existing inventories, thus, allowing these inventories to aid in landslide hazard modeling corresponding to the correct event chain. Our method uses various geometric characteristics of landslides as the feature space for the machine-learning classifier random forest, resulting in accurate and robust classifications of landslide triggers. We applied the method to six landslide inventories spread over the Japanese archipelago in several different tests and training configurations to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. We achieved mean accuracy ranging from 67% to 92%. We also provide an illustrative example of a real-world usage scenario for our method using an additional inventory with unknown ground truth. Furthermore, our feature importance analysis indicates that landslides having identical trigger mechanisms exhibit similar geometric properties.
Pressure induced structural changes in silicate melts have a great impact on their physico-chemical properties and hence on their behaviour in the deep Earth's interior. In order to gain a deeper understanding we have studied the densification mechanism in multicomponent aluminosilicate glasses (albitic and albit-diopside composition) by means of extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy coupled to a diamond anvil cell up to 164 GPa. We have monitored the structural modifications from the network-former Ge as well as the network-modifier Sr. Notably, we tracked the evolution of Ge-O and Sr-O bond lengths (RGe-O, RSr-O) and their coordination number with pressure. We show that RGe-O increases strongly up to about 32 GPa, whereas RSr-O increases only slightly up to similar to 26 GPa. We assign these extensions to the increase of the coordination number from 4 to 6 (Ge) and from similar to 6 to at least 9 (Sr). Upon further compression RGe-O and RSr-O exhibit a continuous decrease to the highest probed pressure. These bond contractions, notably of RGe-O, that are continuous and exceed the one observed in pure SiO2 and GeO2, reflect a higher structural flexibility of multi-component glasses compared to those simple systems. Particularly, the high fraction of non-bridging oxygen atoms due to the presence of Na, Sr, Ca, Mg in the studied glasses, favours the simple compression of the highly-coordinated polyhedra of Si and Ge at pressure greater than 30 GPa. This is in strong contrast to pure oxides where cation polyhedral distortions govern the densification mechanism of the glass. The results of this study demonstrate that low field-strength alkali and alkaline earth cations, ubiquitous in deep Earth's melts, have a profound influence on the densification mechanism of glasses. Our results provide important constrains for interpreting the observed low velocity anomalies at the Earth's core-mantle boundary that have been, beyond others, referred to the presence of high-density melts. The hypothesis that non-buoyant melts at the Earth's core-mantle boundary can be formed by peculiar structural transformations in melts leading to higher coordination numbers compared to their crystalline equivalents is not supported from the present observations. The present results rather suggest that if velocity anomalies are to be explained by melts, these likely have considerable differences in chemical composition to the surrounding crystalline phase assemblage.
Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys.
Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates.
Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration.
Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers.
Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored.
A circulatory loop
(2023)
In the digitalization debate, gender biases in digital technologies play a significant role because of their potential for social exclusion and inequality. It is therefore remarkable that organizations as drivers of digitalization and as places for social integration have been widely overlooked so far. Simultaneously, gender biases and digitalization have structurally immanent connections to organizations. Therefore, a look at the reciprocal relationship between organizations, digitalization, and gender is needed. The article provides answers to the question of whether and how organizations (re)produce, reinforce, or diminish gender‐specific inequalities during their digital transformations. On the one hand, gender inequalities emerge when organizations use post‐bureaucratic concepts through digitalization. On the other hand, gender inequalities are reproduced when organizations either program or implement digital technologies and fail to establish control structures that prevent gender biases. This article shows that digitalization can act as a catalyst for inequality‐producing mechanisms, but also has the potential to mitigate inequalities. We argue that organizations must be considered when discussing the potential of exclusion through digitalization.
Poaching is driving many species toward extinction, and as a result, lowering poaching pressure is a conservation priority. This requires understanding where poaching pressure is high and which factors determine these spatial patterns. However, the cryptic and illegal nature of poaching makes this difficult.
Ranger patrol data, typically recorded in protected area logbooks, contain information on patrolling efforts and poaching detection and should thus provide opportunities for a better understanding of poaching pressure. However, these data are seldom analyzed and rarely used to inform adaptive management strategies.
We developed a novel approach to making use of analog logbook records to map poaching pressure and to test environmental criminology and predator-prey relationship hypotheses explaining poaching patterns. We showcase this approach for Golestan National Park in Iran, where poaching has substantially depleted ungulate populations. We digitized data from >4800 ranger patrols from 2014 to 2016 and used an occupancy modeling framework to relate poaching to (1) accessibility, (2) law enforcement, and (3) prey availability factors. Based on predicted poaching pressure and patrolling intensity, we provide suggestions for future patrol allocation strategies. Our results revealed a low probability (12%) of poacher detection during patrols. Poaching distribution was best explained by prey availability, indicating that poachers target areas with high concentrations of ungulates. Poaching pressure was estimated to be high (>0.49) in 39% of our study area. To alleviate poaching pressure, we recommend ramping up patrolling intensity in 12% of the national park, which could be achievable by reducing excess patrols in about 20% of the park.
However, our results suggest that for 27% of the park, it is necessary to improve patrolling quality to increase detection probability of poaching, for example, by closing temporal patrolling gaps or expanding informant networks. Our approach illustrates that analog ranger logbooks are an untapped resource for evidence-based and adaptive planning of protected area management. Using this wealth of data can open up new avenues to better understand poaching and its determinants, to expand effectiveness assessments to the past, and, more generally, to allow for strategic conservation planning in protected areas.
A comparative whole-genome approach identifies bacterial traits for marine microbial interactions
(2022)
Luca Zoccarato, Daniel Sher et al. leverage publicly available bacterial genomes from marine and other environments to examine traits underlying microbial interactions.
Their results provide a valuable resource to investigate clusters of functional and linked traits to better understand marine bacteria community assembly and dynamics.
Microbial interactions shape the structure and function of microbial communities with profound consequences for biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem health. Yet, most interaction mechanisms are studied only in model systems and their prevalence is unknown. To systematically explore the functional and interaction potential of sequenced marine bacteria, we developed a trait-based approach, and applied it to 473 complete genomes (248 genera), representing a substantial fraction of marine microbial communities.
We identified genome functional clusters (GFCs) which group bacterial taxa with common ecology and life history. Most GFCs revealed unique combinations of interaction traits, including the production of siderophores (10% of genomes), phytohormones (3-8%) and different B vitamins (57-70%). Specific GFCs, comprising Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria, displayed more interaction traits than expected by chance, and are thus predicted to preferentially interact synergistically and/or antagonistically with bacteria and phytoplankton. Linked trait clusters (LTCs) identify traits that may have evolved to act together (e.g., secretion systems, nitrogen metabolism regulation and B vitamin transporters), providing testable hypotheses for complex mechanisms of microbial interactions.
Our approach translates multidimensional genomic information into an atlas of marine bacteria and their putative functions, relevant for understanding the fundamental rules that govern community assembly and dynamics.
The time instant-the first-passage time (FPT)-when a diffusive particle (e.g., a ligand such as oxygen or a signalling protein) for the first time reaches an immobile target located on the surface of a bounded three-dimensional domain (e.g., a hemoglobin molecule or the cellular nucleus) is a decisive characteristic time-scale in diverse biophysical and biochemical processes, as well as in intermediate stages of various inter- and intra-cellular signal transduction pathways. Adam and Delbruck put forth the reduction-of-dimensionality concept, according to which a ligand first binds non-specifically to any point of the surface on which the target is placed and then diffuses along this surface until it locates the target. In this work, we analyse the efficiency of such a scenario and confront it with the efficiency of a direct search process, in which the target is approached directly from the bulk and not aided by surface diffusion. We consider two situations: (i) a single ligand is launched from a fixed or a random position and searches for the target, and (ii) the case of 'amplified' signals when N ligands start either from the same point or from random positions, and the search terminates when the fastest of them arrives to the target. For such settings, we go beyond the conventional analyses, which compare only the mean values of the corresponding FPTs. Instead, we calculate the full probability density function of FPTs for both scenarios and study its integral characteristic-the 'survival' probability of a target up to time t. On this basis, we examine how the efficiencies of both scenarios are controlled by a variety of parameters and single out realistic conditions in which the reduction-of-dimensionality scenario outperforms the direct search.
Archaea belonging to the phylum Bathyarchaeota are the predominant archaeal species in cold, anoxic marine sediments and additionally occur in a variety of habitats, both natural and man-made. Metagenomic and single-cell sequencing studies suggest that Bathyarchaeota may have a significant impact on the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, either through direct production of methane or through the degradation of complex organic matter that can subsequently be converted into methane. This is especially relevant in permafrost regions where climate change leads to thawing of permafrost, making high amounts of stored carbon bioavailable. Here we present the analysis of nineteen draft genomes recovered from a sediment core metagenome of the Polar Fox Lagoon, a thermokarst lake located on the Bykovsky Peninsula in Siberia, Russia, which is connected to the brackish Tiksi Bay. We show that the Bathyarchaeota in this lake are predominantly peptide degraders, producing reduced ferredoxin from the fermentation of peptides, while degradation pathways for plant-derived polymers were found to be incomplete. Several genomes encoded the potential for acetogenesis through the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway, but methanogenesis was determined to be unlikely due to the lack of genes encoding the key enzyme in methanogenesis, methyl-CoM reductase. Many genomes lacked a clear pathway for recycling reduced ferredoxin. Hydrogen metabolism was also hardly found: one type 4e [NiFe] hydrogenase was annotated in a single MAG and no [FeFe] hydrogenases were detected. Little evidence was found for syntrophy through formate or direct interspecies electron transfer, leaving a significant gap in our understanding of the metabolism of these organisms.
Predictors and prevalence of hazardous alcohol use in middle-late to late adulthood in Europe
(2022)
Objectives:
Even low to moderate levels of alcohol consumption can have detrimental health consequences, especially in older adults (OA). Although many studies report an increase in the proportion of drinkers among OA, there are regional variations. Therefore, we examined alcohol consumption and the prevalence of hazardous alcohol use (HAU) among men and women aged 50+ years in four European regions and investigated predictors of HAU.
Methods:
We analyzed data of N = 35,042 participants of the European SHARE study. We investigated differences in alcohol consumption (units last week) according to gender, age and EU-region using ANOVAs. Furthermore, logistic regression models were used to examine the effect of income, education, marital status, history of a low-quality parent-child relationship and smoking on HAU, also stratified for gender and EU-region. HAU was operationalized as binge drinking or risky drinking (<12.5 units of 10 ml alcohol/week).
Results:
Overall, past week alcohol consumption was 5.0 units (+/- 7.8), prevalence of HAU was 25.4% within our sample of European adults aged 50+ years. Male gender, younger age and living in Western Europe were linked to both higher alcohol consumption and higher risks of HAU. Income, education, smoking, a low-quality parent-child relationship, living in Northern and especially Eastern Europe were positively associated with HAU. Stratified analyses revealed differences by region and gender.
Conclusions:
HAU was highly prevalent within this European sample of OA. Alcohol consumption and determinants of HAU differed between EU-regions, hinting to a necessity of risk-stratified population-level strategies to prevent HAU and subsequent alcohol use disorders.
Can compression garments reduce the deleterious effects of physical exercise on muscle strength?
(2022)
Background
The use of compression garments (CGs) during or after training and competition has gained popularity in the last few decades. However, the data concerning CGs' beneficial effects on muscle strength-related outcomes after physical exercise remain inconclusive.
Objective
The aim was to determine whether wearing CGs during or after physical exercise would facilitate the recovery of muscle strength-related outcomes.
Methods
A systematic literature search was conducted across five databases (PubMed, SPORTDiscus, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost). Data from 19 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) including 350 healthy participants were extracted and meta-analytically computed. Weighted between-study standardized mean differences (SMDs) with respect to their standard errors (SEs) were aggregated and corrected for sample size to compute overall SMDs. The type of physical exercise, the body area and timing of CG application, and the time interval between the end of the exercise and subsequent testing were assessed.
Results
CGs produced no strength-sparing effects (SMD [95% confidence interval]) at the following time points (t) after physical exercise: immediately <= t < 24 h: - 0.02 (- 0.22 to 0.19), p = 0.87; 24 <= t < 48 h: - 0.00 (- 0.22 to 0.21), p = 0.98; 48 <= t < 72 h: - 0.03 (- 0.43 to 0.37), p = 0.87; 72 <= t < 96 h: 0.14 (- 0.21 to 0.49), p = 0.43; 96 h <= t: 0.26 (- 0.33 to 0.85), p = 0.38. The body area where the CG was applied had no strength-sparing effects. CGs revealed weak strength-sparing effects after plyometric exercise.
Conclusion
Meta-analytical evidence suggests that wearing a CG during or after training does not seem to facilitate the recovery of muscle strength following physical exercise. Practitioners, athletes, coaches, and trainers should reconsider the use of CG as a tool to reduce the effects of physical exercise on muscle strength.
Background
The role of trunk muscle training (TMT) for physical fitness (e.g., muscle power) and sport-specific performance measures (e.g., swimming time) in athletic populations has been extensively examined over the last decades. However, a recent systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of TMT on measures of physical fitness and sport-specific performance in young and adult athletes is lacking.
Objective
To aggregate the effects of TMT on measures of physical fitness and sport-specific performance in young and adult athletes and identify potential subject-related moderator variables (e.g., age, sex, expertise level) and training-related programming parameters (e.g., frequency, study length, session duration, and number of training sessions) for TMT effects.
Data Sources
A systematic literature search was conducted with PubMed, Web of Science, and SPORTDiscus, with no date restrictions, up to June 2021.
Study Eligibility Criteria
Only controlled trials with baseline and follow-up measures were included if they examined the effects of TMT on at least one measure of physical fitness (e.g., maximal muscle strength, change-of-direction speed (CODS)/agility, linear sprint speed) and sport-specific performance (e.g., throwing velocity, swimming time) in young or adult competitive athletes at a regional, national, or international level. The expertise level was classified as either elite (competing at national and/or international level) or regional (i.e., recreational and sub-elite).
Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods
The methodological quality of TMT studies was assessed using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale. A random-effects model was used to calculate weighted standardized mean differences (SMDs) between intervention and active control groups. Additionally, univariate sub-group analyses were independently computed for subject-related moderator variables and training-related programming parameters.
Results
Overall, 31 studies with 693 participants aged 11-37 years were eligible for inclusion. The methodological quality of the included studies was 5 on the PEDro scale. In terms of physical fitness, there were significant, small-to-large effects of TMT on maximal muscle strength (SMD = 0.39), local muscular endurance (SMD = 1.29), lower limb muscle power (SMD = 0.30), linear sprint speed (SMD = 0.66), and CODS/agility (SMD = 0.70). Furthermore, a significant and moderate TMT effect was found for sport-specific performance (SMD = 0.64). Univariate sub-group analyses for subject-related moderator variables revealed significant effects of age on CODS/agility (p = 0.04), with significantly large effects for children (SMD = 1.53, p = 0.002). Further, there was a significant effect of number of training sessions on muscle power and linear sprint speed (p <= 0.03), with significant, small-to-large effects of TMT for > 18 sessions compared to <= 18 sessions (0.45 <= SMD <= 0.84, p <= 0.003). Additionally, session duration significantly modulated TMT effects on linear sprint speed, CODS/agility, and sport-specific performance (p <= 0.05). TMT with session durations <= 30 min resulted in significant, large effects on linear sprint speed and CODS/agility (1.66 <= SMD <= 2.42, p <= 0.002), whereas session durations > 30 min resulted in significant, large effects on sport-specific performance (SMD = 1.22, p = 0.008).
Conclusions
Our findings indicate that TMT is an effective means to improve selected measures of physical fitness and sport-specific performance in young and adult athletes. <br /> Independent sub-group analyses suggest that TMT has the potential to improve CODS/agility, but only in children. Additionally, more (> 18) and/or shorter duration (<= 30 min) TMT sessions appear to be more effective for improving lower limb muscle power, linear sprint speed, and CODS/agility in young or adult competitive athletes.
Gender at the crossroads
(2021)
Since the early 2000s, the United Nations (UN) global counterterrorism architecture has seen significant changes towards increased multilateralism, a focus on prevention, and inter-institutional coordination across the UN’s three pillars of work. Throughout this reform process, gender aspects have increasingly become presented as a “cross-cutting” theme. In this article, I investigate the role of gender in the UN’s counterterrorism reform process at the humanitarian-development-peace nexus, or “triple nexus”, from a feminist institutionalist perspective. I conduct a feminist discourse analysis of the counterterrorism discourses of three UN entities, which represent the different UN pillars of peace and security (DPO), development (UNDP), and humanitarianism and human rights (OHCHR). The article examines the role of gender in the inter-institutional reform process by focusing on the changes, overlaps and differences in the discursive production of gender in the entities’ counterterrorism agendas over time and in two recent UN counterterrorism conferences. I find that gendered dynamics of nested newness and institutional layering have played an essential role both as a justification for the involvement of individual entities in counterterrorism and as a vehicle for inter-institutional cooperation and struggle for discursive power.
How related are the ergodic properties of the over- and underdamped Langevin equations driven by fractional Gaussian noise? We here find that for massive particles performing fractional Brownian motion (FBM) inertial effects not only destroy the stylized fact of the equivalence of the ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement (MSD) to the time-averaged MSD (TAMSD) of overdamped or massless FBM, but also dramatically alter the values of the ergodicity-breaking parameter (EB). Our theoretical results for the behavior of EB for underdamped or massive FBM for varying particle mass m, Hurst exponent H, and trace length T are in excellent agreement with the findings of stochastic computer simulations. The current results can be of interest for the experimental community employing various single-particle-tracking techniques and aiming at assessing the degree of nonergodicity for the recorded time series (studying, e.g., the behavior of EB versus lag time). To infer FBM as a realizable model of anomalous diffusion for a set single-particle-tracking data when massive particles are being tracked, the EBs from the data should be compared to EBs of massive (rather than massless) FBM.
In recent years, there have been a growing number of online and offline attacks linked to a loosely connected network of misogynist and antifeminist online communities called ‘the manosphere’. Since 2016, the ideas spread among and by groups of the manosphere have also become more closely aligned with those of other Far-Right online networks. In this commentary, I explore the role of what I term ‘evidence-based misogyny’ for mobilization and radicalization into the antifeminist and misogynist subcultures of the manosphere. Evidence-based misogyny is a discursive strategy, whereby members of the manosphere refer to (and misinterpret) knowledge in the form of statistics, studies, news items and pop-culture and mimic accepted methods of knowledge presentation to support their essentializing, polarizing views about gender relations in society. Evidence-based misogyny is a core aspect for manosphere-related mobilization as it provides a false sense of authority and forges a collective identity, which is framed as a supposed ‘alternative’ to mainstream gender knowledge. Due to its core function to justify and confirm the misogynist sentiments of users, evidence-based misogyny serves as connector between the manosphere and both mainstream conservative as well as other Far-Right and conspiratorial discourses.
Marine sedimentary archives are routinely used to reconstruct past environmental changes. In many cases, bioturbation and sedimentary mixing affect the proxy time-series and the age-depth relationship. While idealized models of bioturbation exist, they usually assume homogeneous mixing, thus that a single sample is representative for the sediment layer it is sampled from.
However, it is largely unknown to which extent this assumption holds for sediments used for paleoclimate reconstructions.
To shed light on
1) the age-depth relationship and its full uncertainty,
2) the magnitude of mixing processes affecting the downcore proxy variations, and
3) the representativity of the discrete sample for the sediment layer, we designed and performed a case study on South China Sea sediment material which was collected using a box corer and which covers the last glacial cycle.
Using the radiocarbon content of foraminiferal tests as a tracer of time, we characterize the spatial age-heterogeneity of sediments in a three-dimensional setup. In total, 118 radiocarbon measurements were performed on defined small- and large-volume bulk samples ( similar to 200 specimens each) to investigate the horizontal heterogeneity of the sediment. Additionally, replicated measurements on small numbers of specimens (10 x 5 specimens) were performed to assess the heterogeneity within a sample volume. Visual assessment of X-ray images and a quantitative assessment of the mixing strength show typical mixing from bioturbation corresponding to around 10 cm mixing depth.
Notably, our 3D radiocarbon distribution reveals that the horizontal heterogeneity (up to 1,250 years), contributing to the age uncertainty, is several times larger than the typically assumed radiocarbon based age-model error (single errors up to 250 years). Furthermore, the assumption of a perfectly bioturbated layer with no mixing underneath is not met.
Our analysis further demonstrates that the age-heterogeneity might be a function of sample size; smaller samples might contain single features from the incomplete mixing and are thus less representative than larger samples.
We provide suggestions for future studies, optimal sampling strategies for quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and realistic uncertainty in age models, as well as discuss possible implications for the interpretation of paleoclimate records.