Refine
Has Fulltext
- yes (44) (remove)
Year of publication
- 2017 (44) (remove)
Document Type
- Doctoral Thesis (21)
- Postprint (20)
- Bachelor Thesis (1)
- Conference Proceeding (1)
- Master's Thesis (1)
Keywords
- climate change (3)
- natural hazards (3)
- Naturgefahren (2)
- Seismologie (2)
- Zeitreihenanalyse (2)
- damage (2)
- geomorphology (2)
- hyperspectral (2)
- imaging spectroscopy (2)
- seismology (2)
Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (44) (remove)
Information on the contemporary in-situ stress state of the earth’s crust is essential for geotechnical applications and physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Yet, stress data records for a data point are incomplete and their availability is usually not dense enough to allow conclusive statements. This demands a thorough examination of the in-situ stress field which is achieved by 3D geomechanicalnumerical models. However, the models spatial resolution is limited and the resulting local stress state is subject to large uncertainties that confine the significance of the findings. In addition, temporal variations of the in-situ stress field are naturally or anthropogenically induced. In my thesis I address these challenges in three manuscripts that investigate (1) the current crustal stress field orientation, (2) the 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling of the in-situ stress state, and (3) the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotations. In the first manuscript I present the first comprehensive stress data compilation of Iceland with 495 data records. Therefore, I analysed image logs from 57 boreholes in Iceland for indicators of the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress component. The study is the first stress survey from different kinds of stress indicators in a geologically very young and tectonically active area of an onshore spreading ridge. It reveals a distinct stress field with a depth independent stress orientation even very close to the spreading centre. In the second manuscript I present a calibrated 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling approach of the in-situ stress state of the Bavarian Molasse Basin that investigates the regional (70x70x10km³) and local (10x10x10km³) stress state. To link these two models I develop a multi-stage modelling approach that provides a reliable and efficient method to derive from the larger scale model initial and boundary conditions for the smaller scale model. Furthermore, I quantify the uncertainties in the models results which are inherent to geomechanical-numerical modelling in general and the multi-stage approach in particular. I show that the significance of the models results is mainly reduced due to the uncertainties in the material properties and the low number of available stress magnitude data records for calibration. In the third manuscript I investigate the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotation and its controlling factors. I conduct a sensitivity study with a 3D generic thermo-hydro-mechanical model. I show that the key control factors for the stress tensor rotation are the permeability as the decisive factor, the injection rate, and the initial differential stress. In particular for enhanced geothermal systems with a low permeability large rotations of the stress tensor are indicated. According to these findings the estimation of the initial differential stress in a reservoir is possible provided the permeability is known and the angle of stress rotation is observed. I propose that the stress tensor rotations can be a key factor in terms of the potential for induced seismicity on pre-existing faults due to the reorientation of the stress field that changes the optimal orientation of faults.
To what extent cities can be made sustainable under the mega-trends of urbanization and climate change remains a matter of unresolved scientific debate. Our inability in answering this question lies partly in the deficient knowledge regarding pivotal humanenvironment interactions. Regarded as the most well documented anthropogenic climate modification, the urban heat island (UHI) effect – the warmth of urban areas relative to the rural hinterland – has raised great public health concerns globally. Worse still, heat waves are being observed and are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity, which further impairs the well-being of urban dwellers. Albeit with a substantial increase in the number of publications on UHI in the recent decades, the diverse urban-rural definitions applied in previous studies have remarkably hampered the general comparability of results achieved. In addition, few studies have attempted to synergize the land use data and thermal remote sensing to systematically assess UHI and its contributing factors.
Given these research gaps, this work presents a general framework to systematically quantify the UHI effect based on an automated algorithm, whereby cities are defined as clusters of maximum spatial continuity on the basis of land use data, with their rural hinterland being defined analogously. By combining land use data with spatially explicit surface skin temperatures from satellites, the surface UHI intensity can be calculated in a consistent and robust manner. This facilitates monitoring, benchmarking, and categorizing UHI intensities for cities across scales. In light of this innovation, the relationship between city size and UHI intensity has been investigated, as well as the contributions of urban form indicators to the UHI intensity.
This work delivers manifold contributions to the understanding of the UHI, which have complemented and advanced a number of previous studies. Firstly, a log-linear relationship between surface UHI intensity and city size has been confirmed among the 5,000 European cities. The relationship can be extended to a log-logistic one, when taking a wider range of small-sized cities into account. Secondly, this work reveals a complex interplay between UHI intensity and urban form. City size is found to have the strongest influence on the UHI intensity, followed by the fractality and the anisometry. However, their relative contributions to the surface UHI intensity depict a pronounced regional heterogeneity, indicating the importance of considering spatial patterns of UHI while implementing UHI adaptation measures.
Lastly, this work presents a novel seasonality of the UHI intensity for individual clusters in the form of hysteresis-like curves, implying a phase shift between the time series of UHI intensity and background temperatures. Combining satellite observation and urban boundary layer simulation, the seasonal variations of UHI are assessed from both screen and skin levels. Taking London as an example, this work ascribes the discrepancies between the seasonality observed at different levels mainly to the peculiarities of surface skin temperatures associated with the incoming solar radiation. In addition, the efforts in classifying cities according to their UHI characteristics highlight the important role of regional climates in determining the UHI.
This work serves as one of the first studies conducted to systematically and statistically scrutinize the UHI. The outcomes of this work are of particular relevance for the overall spatial planning and regulation at meso- and macro levels in order to harness the benefits of rapid urbanization, while proactively minimizing its ensuing thermal stress.
Die zerstörungsfreien Prüfungen von Bauwerken mit Hilfe von Ultraschallmessverfahren haben in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Durch Ultraschallmessungen können die Geometrien von Bauteilen bestimmt sowie von außen nicht sichtbare Fehler wie Delaminationen und Kiesnester erkannt werden.
Mit neuartigen, in das Betonbauteil eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen sollen nun Bauwerke dauerhaft auf Veränderungen überprüft werden. Dazu werden Ultraschallsignale direkt im Inneren eines Bauteils erzeugt, was die Möglichkeiten der herkömmlichen Methoden der Bauwerksüberwachung wesentlich erweitert. Ein Ultraschallverfahren könnte mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen ein Betonbauteil kontinuierlich integral überwachen und damit auch stetig fortschreitende Gefügeänderungen, wie beispielsweise Mikrorisse, registrieren.
Sicherheitsrelevante Bauteile, die nach dem Einbau für Messungen unzugänglich oder mittels Ultraschall, beispielsweise durch zusätzliche Beschichtungen der Oberfläche, nicht prüfbar sind, lassen sich mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen überwachen. An bereits vorhandenen Bauwerken können die Ultraschallprüfköpfe mithilfe von Bohrlöchern und speziellem Verpressmörtel auch nachträglich in das Bauteil integriert werden. Für Fertigbauteile bieten sich eingebettete Prüfköpfe zur Herstellungskontrolle sowie zur Überwachung der Baudurchführung als Werkzeug der Qualitätssicherung an. Auch die schnelle Schadensanalyse eines Bauwerks nach Naturkatastrophen, wie beispielsweise einem Erdbeben oder einer Flut, ist denkbar.
Durch die gute Ankopplung ermöglichen diese neuartigen Prüfköpfe den Einsatz von empfindlichen Auswertungsmethoden, wie die Kreuzkorrelation, die Coda-Wellen-Interferometrie oder die Amplitudenauswertung, für die Signalanalyse. Bei regelmäßigen Messungen können somit sich anbahnende Schäden eines Bauwerks frühzeitig erkannt werden.
Da die Schädigung eines Bauwerks keine direkt messbare Größe darstellt, erfordert eine eindeutige Schadenserkennung in der Regel die Messung mehrerer physikalischer Größen die geeignet verknüpft werden. Physikalische Größen können sein: Ultraschalllaufzeit, Amplitude des Ultraschallsignals und Umgebungstemperatur. Dazu müssen Korrelationen zwischen dem Zustand des Bauwerks, den Umgebungsbedingungen und den Parametern des gemessenen Ultraschallsignals untersucht werden.
In dieser Arbeit werden die neuartigen Prüfköpfe vorgestellt. Es wird beschrieben, dass sie sich, sowohl in bereits errichtete Betonbauwerke als auch in der Konstruktion befindliche, einbauen lassen. Experimentell wird gezeigt, dass die Prüfköpfe in mehreren Ebenen eingebettet sein können da ihre Abstrahlcharakteristik im Beton nahezu ungerichtet ist. Die Mittenfrequenz von rund 62 kHz ermöglicht Abstände, je nach Betonart und SRV, von mindestens 3 m zwischen Prüfköpfen die als Sender und Empfänger arbeiten. Die Empfindlichkeit der eingebetteten Prüfköpfe gegenüber Veränderungen im Beton wird an Hand von zwei Laborexperimenten gezeigt, einem Drei-Punkt-Biegeversuch und einem Versuch zur Erzeugung von Frost-Tau-Wechsel Schäden. Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen zerstörungsfreien Prüfverfahren verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prüfköpfe durch die Anwendung empfindlicher Auswertemethoden, auftretende Risse im Beton detektieren, bevor diese eine Gefahr für das Bauwerk darstellen. Abschließend werden Beispiele von Installation der neuartigen Ultraschallprüfköpfe in realen Bauteilen, zwei Brücken und einem Fundament, gezeigt und basierend auf dort gewonnenen ersten Erfahrungen ein Konzept für die Umsetzung einer Langzeitüberwachung aufgestellt.
The Yukon Coast in Canada is an ice-rich permafrost coast and highly sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Retrogressive thaw slumps are a common thermoerosion feature along this coast, and develop through the thawing of exposed ice-rich permafrost on slopes and removal of accumulating debris. They contribute large amounts of sediment, including organic carbon and nitrogen, to the nearshore zone.
The objective of this study was to 1) identify the climatic and geomorphological drivers of sediment-meltwater release, 2) quantify the amount of released meltwater, sediment, organic carbon and nitrogen, and 3) project the evolution of sediment-meltwater release of retrogressive thaw slumps in a changing future climate.
The analysis is based on data collected over 18 days in July 2013 and 18 days in August 2012. A cut-throat flume was set up in the main sediment-meltwater channel of the largest retrogressive thaw slump on Herschel Island. In addition, two weather stations, one on top of the undisturbed tundra and one on the slump floor, measured incoming solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and precipitation. The discharge volume eroding from the ice-rich permafrost and retreating snowbanks was measured and compared to the meteorological data collected in real time with a resolution of one minute.
The results show that the release of sediment-meltwater from thawing of the ice-rich permafrost headwall is strongly related to snowmelt, incoming solar radiation and air temperature. Snowmelt led to seasonal differences, especially due to the additional contribution of water to the eroding sediment-meltwater from headwall ablation, lead to dilution of the sediment-meltwater composition. Incoming solar radiation and air temperature were the main drivers for diurnal and inter-diurnal fluctuations. In July (2013), the retrogressive thaw slump released about 25 000 m³ of sediment-meltwater, containing 225 kg dissolved organic carbon and 2050 t of sediment, which in turn included 33 t organic carbon, and 4 t total nitrogen. In August (2012), just 15 600 m³ of sediment-meltwater was released, since there was no additional contribution from snowmelt. However, even without the additional dilution, 281 kg dissolved organic carbon was released. The sediment concentration was twice as high as in July, with sediment contents of up to 457 g l-1 and 3058 t of sediment, including 53 t organic carbon and 5 t nitrogen, being released.
In addition, the data from the 36 days of observations from Slump D were upscaled to cover the main summer season of 1 July to 31 August (62 days) and to include all 229 active retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast. In total, all retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast contribute a minimum of 1.4 Mio. m³ sediment-meltwater each thawing season, containing a minimum of 172 000 t sediment with 3119 t organic carbon, 327 t nitrogen and 17 t dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, in addition to the coastal erosion input to the Beaufort Sea, retrogressive thaw slumps additionally release 3 % of sediment and 8 % of organic carbon into the ocean. Finally, the future evolution of retrogressive thaw slumps under a warming scenario with summer air temperatures increasing by 2-3 °C by 2081-2100, would lead to an increase of 109-114% in release of sediment-meltwater.
It can be concluded that retrogressive thaw slumps are sensitive to climatic conditions and under projected future Arctic warming will contribute larger amounts of thawed permafrost material (including organic carbon and nitrogen) into the environment.
Water infiltration in soil is not only affected by the inherent heterogeneities of soil, but even more by the interaction with plant roots and their water uptake. Neutron tomography is a unique non-invasive 3D tool to visualize plant root systems together with the soil water distribution in situ. So far, acquisition times in the range of hours have been the major limitation for imaging 3D water dynamics. Implementing an alternative acquisition procedure we boosted the speed of acquisition capturing an entire tomogram within 10 s. This allows, for the first time, tracking of a water front ascending in a rooted soil column upon infiltration of deuterated water time-resolved in 3D. Image quality and resolution could be sustained to a level allowing for capturing the root system in high detail. Good signal-to-noise ratio and contrast were the key to visualize dynamic changes in water content and to localize the root uptake. We demonstrated the ability of ultra-fast tomography to quantitatively image quick changes of water content in the rhizosphere and outlined the value of such imaging data for 3D water uptake modelling. The presented method paves the way for time-resolved studies of various 3D flow and transport phenomena in porous systems
Anthropogenically amplified erosion leads to increased fine-grained sediment input into the fluvial system in the 15.000 km2 Kharaa River catchment in northern Mongolia and constitutes a major stressing factor for the aquatic ecosystem. This study uniquely combines the application of intensive monitoring, source fingerprinting and catchment modelling techniques to allow for the comparison of the credibility and accuracy of each single method. High-resolution discharge data were used in combination with daily suspended solid measurements to calculate the suspended sediment budget and compare it with estimations of the sediment budget model SedNet. The comparison of both techniques showed that the development of an overall sediment budget with SedNet was possible, yielding results in the same order of magnitude (20.3 kt a- 1 and 16.2 kt a- 1).
Radionuclide sediment tracing, using Be-7, Cs-137 and Pb-210 was applied to differentiate sediment sources for particles < 10μm from hillslope and riverbank erosion and showed that riverbank erosion generates 74.5% of the suspended sediment load, whereas surface erosion contributes 21.7% and gully erosion only 3.8%. The contribution of the single subcatchments of the Kharaa to the suspended sediment load was assessed based on their variation in geochemical composition (e.g. in Ti, Sn, Mo, Mn, As, Sr, B, U, Ca and Sb). These variations were used for sediment source discrimination with geochemical composite fingerprints based on Genetic Algorithm driven Discriminant Function Analysis, the Kruskal–Wallis H-test and Principal Component Analysis. The contributions of the individual sub-catchment varied from 6.4% to 36.2%, generally showing higher contributions from the sub-catchments in the middle, rather than the upstream portions of the study area.
The results indicate that river bank erosion generated by existing grazing practices of livestock is the main cause for elevated fine sediment input. Actions towards the protection of the headwaters and the stabilization of the river banks within the middle reaches were identified as the highest priority. Deforestation and by lodging and forest fires should be prevented to avoid increased hillslope erosion in the mountainous areas. Mining activities are of minor importance for the overall catchment sediment load but can constitute locally important point sources for particular heavy metals in the fluvial system.
High Mountain Asia (HMA) - encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges - is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications - such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower - rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season - defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3-5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade 1 over the 29-year study period (5-25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes than trends in snowmelt end. (2) Areas with long snowmelt periods, such as the Tibetan Plateau, show the strongest compression of the snowmelt season (negative trends). These trends are apparent regardless of the time period over which the regression is performed. (3) While trends averaged over 3 decades indicate generally earlier snowmelt seasons, data from the last 14 years (2002-2016) exhibit positive trends in many regions, such as parts of the Pamir and Kunlun Shan. Due to the short nature of the time series, it is not clear whether this change is a reversal of a long-term trend or simply interannual variability. (4) Some regions with stable or growing glaciers - such as the Karakoram and Kunlun Shan - see slightly later snowmelt seasons and longer snowmelt periods. It is likely that changes in the snowmelt regime of HMA account for some of the observed heterogeneity in glacier response to climate change. While the decadal increases in regional temperature have in general led to earlier and shortened melt seasons, changes in HMA's cryosphere have been spatially and temporally heterogeneous.
The ionosphere, which is strongly influenced by the Sun, is known to be also affected by meteorological processes. These processes, despite having their origin in the troposphere and stratosphere, interact with the upper atmosphere. Such an interaction between atmospheric layers is known as vertical coupling. During geomagnetically quiet times, when near-Earth space is not under the influence of solar storms, these processes become important drivers for ionospheric variability. Studying the link between these processes in the lower atmosphere and the ionospheric variability is important for our understanding of fundamental mechanisms in ionospheric and meteorological research.
A prominent example of vertical coupling between the stratosphere and the ionosphere are the so-called stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occur usually during northern winters and result in an increase in the polar stratospheric temperature and a reversal of the circumpolar winds. While the phenomenon of SSW is confined to the northern polar stratosphere, its influence on the ionosphere can be observed even at equatorial latitudes. During SSW events, the connection between the polar stratosphere and the equatorial ionosphere is believed to be through the modulation of global atmospheric tides. These tides are fundamental for the ionospheric E-region wind dynamo that generates electric fields and currents in the ionosphere. Observations of ionospheric currents indicate a large enhancement of the semidiurnal lunar tide in response to SSW events. Thus, the semidiurnal lunar tide becomes an important driver of ionospheric variability during SSW events.
In this thesis, the ionospheric effect of SSW events is investigated in the equatorial region, where a narrow but an intense E-region current known as the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) flows above the dip equator during the daytime. The day-to-day variability of the EEJ can be determined from magnetic field records at geomagnetic observatories close to the dip equator. Such magnetic data are available for several decades and allows to investigate the impact of SSW events on the EEJ and, even more importantly, helps in understanding the effects of SSW events on the equatorial ionosphere. An excellent long-term record of the geomagnetic field at the equator from 1922 onwards is available for the observatory Huancayo in Peru and is extensively utilized in this study.
The central subject of this thesis is the investigation of lunar tides in the EEJ during SSW events by analyzing long time series. This is done by estimating the lunar tidal amplitude in the EEJ from the magnetic records at Huancayo and by comparing them to measurements of the polar stratospheric wind and temperature, which led to the identification of the known SSW events from 1952 onwards. One goal of this thesis is to identify SSW events that predate 1952. To this end, superposed epoch analysis (SEA) is employed to establish a relationship between the lunar tidal power and the wind and temperature conditions in the lower atmosphere. A threshold value for the lunar tidal power is identified that is discriminative for the known SSW events. This threshold is then used to identify lunar tidal enhancements, which are indicative for any historic SSW events prior to 1952. It can be shown, that the number of lunar tidal enhancements and thus the occurrence frequency of historic SSW events between 1926 and 1952 is similar to the occurrence frequency of the known SSW events from 1952 onwards.
Next to the classic SSW definition, the concept of polar vortex weakening (PVW) is utilized in this thesis. PVW is defined for higher latitudes and altitudes (≈ 40km) than the classical SSW definition (≈ 32km). The correlation between the timing and magnitude of lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ and the timing and magnitude of PVW is found to be better than for the classic SSW definition. This suggests that the lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ are closely linked to the state of the middle atmosphere.
Geomagnetic observatories located in different longitudes at the dip equator allow investigating the longitudinally dependent variability of the EEJ during SSW events. For this purpose, the lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ are determined for the Peruvian and Indian sectors during the major SSW events of the years 2006 and 2009. It is found that the lunar tidal amplitude shows similar enhancements in the Peruvian sector during both SSW events, while the enhancements are notably different for the two events in the Indian sector.
In summary, this thesis shows that lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ are indeed correlated to the occurrence of SSW events and they should be considered a prominent driver of low latitude ionospheric variability. Secondly, lunar tidal enhancements are found to be longitudinally variable. This suggests that regional effects, such as ionospheric conductivity and the geometry and strength of the geomagnetic field, also play an important role and have to be considered when investigating the mechanisms behind vertical coupling.
The central aim of this thesis is to demonstrate the benefits of innovative frequency-based methods to better explain the variability observed in lake ecosystems. Freshwater ecosystems may be the most threatened part of the hydrosphere. Lake ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in climate and land use because they integrate disturbances across their entire catchment. This makes understanding the dynamics of lake ecosystems an intriguing and important research priority. This thesis adds new findings to the baseline knowledge regarding variability in lake ecosystems. It provides a literature-based, data-driven and methodological framework for the investigation of variability and patterns in environmental parameters in the time frequency domain.
Observational data often show considerable variability in the environmental parameters of lake ecosystems. This variability is mostly driven by a plethora of periodic and stochastic processes inside and outside the ecosystems. These run in parallel and may operate at vastly different time scales, ranging from seconds to decades. In measured data, all of these signals are superimposed, and dominant processes may obscure the signals of other processes, particularly when analyzing mean values over long time scales. Dominant signals are often caused by phenomena at long time scales like seasonal cycles, and most of these are well understood in the limnological literature. The variability injected by biological, chemical and physical processes operating at smaller time scales is less well understood. However, variability affects the state and health of lake ecosystems at all time scales. Besides measuring time series at sufficiently high temporal resolution, the investigation of the full spectrum of variability requires innovative methods of analysis.
Analyzing observational data in the time frequency domain allows to identify variability at different time scales and facilitates their attribution to specific processes. The merit of this approach is subsequently demonstrated in three case studies. The first study uses a conceptual analysis to demonstrate the importance of time scales for the detection of ecosystem responses to climate change. These responses often occur during critical time windows in the year, may exhibit a time lag and can be driven by the exceedance of thresholds in their drivers. This can only be detected if the temporal resolution of the data is high enough. The second study applies Fast Fourier Transform spectral analysis to two decades of daily water temperature measurements to show how temporal and spatial scales of water temperature variability can serve as an indicator for mixing in a shallow, polymictic lake. The final study uses wavelet coherence as a diagnostic tool for limnology on a multivariate high-frequency data set recorded between the onset of ice cover and a cyanobacteria summer bloom in the year 2009 in a polymictic lake. Synchronicities among limnological and meteorological time series in narrow frequency bands were used to identify and disentangle prevailing limnological processes.
Beyond the novel empirical findings reported in the three case studies, this thesis aims to more generally be of interest to researchers dealing with now increasingly available time series data at high temporal resolution. A set of innovative methods to attribute patterns to processes, their drivers and constraints is provided to help make more efficient use of this kind of data.
Ecosystem services (ESs) are defined as the contributions that ecosystems make to human wellbeing and are increasingly being used as an approach to explore the importance of ecosystems for humans through their valuation. Although value plurality has been recognised long before the mainstreaming of ESs research, socio-cultural valuation is still underrepresented in ESs assessments. It is the central goal of this PhD dissertation to explore the ability of socio-cultural valuation methods for the operationalisation of ESs research in land management. To address this, I formulated three research objectives that are briefly outlined below and relate to the three studies conducted during this dissertation.
The first objective relates to the assessment of the current role of socio-cultural valuation in ESs research. Human values are central to ESs research yet non-monetary socio-cultural valuation methods have been found underrepresented in the field of ESs science. In regard to the unbalanced consideration of value domains and conceptual uncertainties, I perform a systematic literature review aiming to answer the research question: To what extent have socio-cultural values been addressed in ESs assessments.
The second objective aims to test socio-cultural valuation methods of ESs and their relevance for land use preferences by exploring their methodological opportunities and limitations. Socio-cultural valuation methods have only recently become a focus in ESs research and therefore bear various uncertainties in regard to their methodological implications. To overcome these uncertainties, I analysed responses to a visitor survey. The research questions related to the second objective were: What are the implications of different valuation methods for ESs values? To what extent are land use preferences explained by socio-cultural values of ESs?
The third objective addressed in this dissertation is the implementation of ESs research into land management through socio-cultural valuation. Though it is emphasised that the ESs approach can assist decision making, there is little empirical evidence of the effect of ESs knowledge on land management. I proposed a way to implement transdisciplinary, spatially explicit research on ESs by answering the following research questions: Which landscape features underpinning ESs supply are considered in land management? How can participatory approaches accounting for ESs be operationalised in land management?
The empirical research resulted in five main findings that provide answers to the research questions. First, this dissertation provides evidence that socio-cultural values are an integral part of ESs research. I found that they can be assessed for provisioning, regulating, and cultural services though they are linked to cultural services to a greater degree. Socio-cultural values have been assessed by monetary and non-monetary methods and their assessment is effectively facilitated by stakeholder participation. Second, I found that different methods of socio-cultural valuation revealed different information. Whereas rating revealed a general value of ESs, weighting was found more suitable to identify priorities across ESs. Value intentions likewise differed in the distribution of values, generally implying a higher value for others than for respondents themselves. Third, I showed that ESs values were distributed similarly across groups with differing land use preferences. Thus, I provided empirical evidence that ESs values and landscape values should not be used interchangeably. Fourth, I showed which landscape features important for ESs supply in a Scottish regional park are not sufficiently accounted for in the current management strategy. This knowledge is useful for the identification of priority sites for land management. Finally, I provide an approach to explore how ESs knowledge elicited by participatory mapping can be operationalised in land management. I demonstrate how stakeholder knowledge and values can be used for the identification of ESs hotspots and how these hotspots can be compared to current management priorities.
This dissertation helps to bridge current gaps of ESs science by advancing the understanding of the current role of socio-cultural values in ESs research, testing different methods and their relevance for land use preferences, and implementing ESs knowledge into land management. If and to what extent ESs and their values are implemented into ecosystem management is mainly the choice of the management. An advanced understanding of socio-cultural valuation methods contributes to the normative basis of this management, while the proposal for the implementation of ESs in land management presents a practical approach of how to transfer this type of knowledge into practice. The proposed methods for socio-cultural valuation can support guiding land management towards a balanced consideration of ESs and conservation goals.
Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.
In this study, we validate and compare elevation accuracy and geomorphic metrics of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) on the southern Central Andean Plateau. The plateau has an average elevation of 3.7 km and is characterized by diverse topography and relief, lack of vegetation, and clear skies that create ideal conditions for remote sensing. At 30m resolution, SRTM-C, ASTER GDEM2, stacked ASTER L1A stereopair DEM, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X have been analyzed. The higher-resolution datasets include 12m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X DEMs, and 5m ALOS World 3D. These DEMs are state of the art for optical (ASTER and ALOS) and radar (SRTM-C and TanDEM-X) spaceborne sensors. We assessed vertical accuracy by comparing standard deviations of the DEM elevation versus 307 509 differential GPS measurements across 4000m of elevation. For the 30m DEMs, the ASTER datasets had the highest vertical standard deviation at > 6.5 m, whereas the SRTM-C, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X were all < 3.5 m. Higher-resolution DEMs generally had lower uncertainty, with both the 12m TanDEM-X and 5m ALOSWorld 3D having < 2m vertical standard deviation. Analysis of vertical uncertainty with respect to terrain elevation, slope, and aspect revealed the low uncertainty across these attributes for SRTM-C (30 m), TanDEM-X (12–30 m), and ALOS World 3D (5–30 m). Single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X 10m DEMs and the 30m ASTER GDEM2 displayed slight aspect biases, which were removed in their stacked counterparts (TanDEM-X and ASTER Stack). Based on low vertical standard deviations and visual inspection alongside optical satellite data, we selected the 30m SRTM-C, 12–30m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, and 5m ALOS World 3D for geomorphic metric comparison in a 66 km2 catchment with a distinct river knickpoint. Consistent m=n values were found using chi plot channel profile analysis, regardless of DEM type and spatial resolution. Slope, curvature, and drainage area were calculated and plotting schemes were used to assess basin-wide differences in the hillslope-to-valley transition related to the knickpoint. While slope and hillslope length measurements vary little between datasets, curvature displays higher magnitude measurements with fining resolution. This is especially true for the optical 5m ALOS World 3D DEM, which demonstrated high-frequency noise in 2–8 pixel steps through a Fourier frequency analysis. The improvements in accurate space-radar DEMs (e.g., TanDEM-X) for geomorphometry are promising, but airborne or terrestrial data are still necessary for meter-scale analysis.
The characteristics of a landscape pose essential factors for hydrological processes. Therefore, an adequate representation of the landscape of a catchment in hydrological models is vital. However, many of such models exist differing, amongst others, in spatial concept and discretisation. The latter constitutes an essential pre-processing step, for which many different algorithms along with numerous software implementations exist. In that context, existing solutions are often model specific, commercial, or depend on commercial back-end software, and allow only a limited or no workflow automation at all.
Consequently, a new package for the scientific software and scripting environment R, called lumpR, was developed. lumpR employs an algorithm for hillslope-based landscape discretisation directed to large-scale application via a hierarchical multi-scale approach. The package addresses existing limitations as it is free and open source, easily extendible to other hydrological models, and the workflow can be fully automated. Moreover, it is user-friendly as the direct coupling to a GIS allows for immediate visual inspection and manual adjustment. Sufficient control is furthermore retained via parameter specification and the option to include expert knowledge. Conversely, completely automatic operation also allows for extensive analysis of aspects related to landscape discretisation.
In a case study, the application of the package is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the most important discretisation parameters demonstrates its efficient workflow automation. Considering multiple streamflow metrics, the employed model proved reasonably robust to the discretisation parameters. However, parameters determining the sizes of subbasins and hillslopes proved to be more important than the others, including the number of representative hillslopes, the number of attributes employed for the lumping algorithm, and the number of sub-discretisations of the representative hillslopes.
The Vogtland, located at the border region between the Czech Republic and Germany, is known for Holocene volcanism, gas and fluid emissions as well as for reoccurring earthquake swarms, pointing towards a high geodynamic activity. During the earthquake swarm in 2008/2009, a temporary array was installed close to Rohrbach (Germany), at an epicentral distance of about 10 km from the Nový Kostel focal zone (aperture ~0.75 km).
22 events of the recorded swarm were selected to set up a source array. Source arrays are spatially clustered earthquakes, which can be used in a similar manner as receiver array recordings of single events (Green’s functions reciprocity). The application of array seismology techniques like beam forming requires similar waveforms and precisely known origin times and locations. The resemblance of waveforms was assured by visual selection of events and quantified with the calculation of cross-correlation coefficients. We observed that the different events recorded at a single station generally show greater resemblances than the recordings of one event at all stations of the receiver array. This indicates a heterogeneous subsurface beneath the receiver array and a comparably homogeneous source array volume with respect to the frequency-dependent resolution of both arrays.
Beam forming was applied on the Z, N and E component recordings of the source array events at 11 stations, and the results were analysed with respect to converted or reflected crustal phases. While the theoretical back azimuth of the direct phases match the beam forming results in case of the source array analysis, in case of receiver array beam forming derivations of 15°-25° are observed.
PS phases, closely following the direct P phase and presumably SP phases, arriving shortly before the direct S phase can be observed on several stations. Based on the time differences to the direct P and S phases we inferred a conversion depth of about 0.6-0.9 km. A second deeper source array was set up in order to interpret a structural phase arriving 0.85 s after the direct P phase on records of deeper events only.
Additionally to the source array beam forming method an analytical method with a fixed medium velocity and a grid search method, both for determining conversion/ reflection locations of phases traveling off the direct line between source and receiver array, were developed and applied to other observed phases.
In conclusion, we think that the distinct beam forming results along with the striking waveform resemblance reveal the opportunities of using source arrays consisting of small swarm events for the analysis of crustal structures.
Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase worldwide coal reserves by developing coal resources, currently not economically extractable by conventional mining methods. For that purpose, coal is combusted in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas with different end-use options, including electricity generation as well as production of fuels and chemical feedstock. Apart from the high economic potentials, UCG may induce site‐specific environmental impacts, including ground surface subsidence and pollutant migration of UCG by-products into shallow freshwater aquifers. Sustainable and efficient UCG operation requires a thorough understanding of the coupled thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes, occurring in the UCG reactor vicinity. The development and infrastructure costs of UCG trials are very high; therefore, numerical simulations of coupled processes in UCG are essential for the assessment of potential environmental impacts. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to assess UCG-induced permeability changes, potential hydraulic short circuit formation and non-isothermal multiphase fluid flow dynamics by means of coupled numerical simulations. Simulation results on permeability changes in the UCG reactor vicinity demonstrate that temperature-dependent thermo-mechanical parameters have to be considered in near-field assessments, only. Hence, far-field simulations do not become inaccurate, but benefit from increased computational efficiency when thermo-mechanical parameters are maintained constant. Simulations on potential hydraulic short circuit formation between single UCG reactors at regional-scale emphasize that geologic faults may induce hydraulic connections, and thus compromise efficient UCG operation. In this context, the steam jacket surrounding high-temperature UCG reactors plays a vital role in avoiding UCG by-products escaping into freshwater aquifers and in minimizing energy consumption by formation fluid evaporation. A steam jacket emerges in the close reactor vicinity due to phase transition of formation water and is a non-isothermal flow phenomenon. Considering this complex multiphase flow behavior, an innovative conceptual modeling approach, validated against field data, enables the quantification and prediction of UCG reactor water balances. The findings of this doctoral thesis provide an important basis for integration of thermo-hydro-mechanical simulations in UCG, required for the assessment and mitigation of its potential environmental impacts as well as optimization of its efficiency.
Lithospheric plates move over the low viscosity asthenosphere balancing several forces. The driving forces include basal shear stress exerted by mantle convection and plate boundary forces such as slab pull and ridge push, whereas the resisting forces include inter-plate friction, trench resistance, and cratonic root resistance. These generate plate motions, the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography which are observed with different geophysical methods. The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field further contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. Using numerical models previous studies were able to identify major forces generating stresses in the crust and lithosphere which also contribute to the formation of topography as well as driving lithospheric plates. They showed that the first-order stress pattern explaining about 80\,\% of the stress field originates from a balance of forces acting at the base of the moving lithospheric plates due to convective flow in the underlying mantle. The remaining second-order stress pattern is due to lateral density variations in the crust and lithosphere in regions of pronounced topography and high gravitational potential, such as the Himalayas and mid-ocean ridges. By linking global lithosphere dynamics to deep mantle flow this study seeks to evaluate the influence of shallow and deep density heterogenities on plate motions, lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography using the geoid as a major constraint for mantle rheology. We use the global 3D lithosphere-asthenosphere model SLIM3D with visco-elasto-plastic rheology coupled at 300 km depth to a spectral model of mantle flow. The complexity of the lithosphere-asthenosphere component allows for the simulation of power-law rheology with creep parameters accounting for both diffusion and dislocation creep within the uppermost 300 km.
First we investigate the influence of intra-plate friction and asthenospheric viscosity on present-day plate motions. Previous modelling studies have suggested that small friction coefficients (µ < 0.1, yield stress ~ 100 MPa) can lead to plate tectonics in models of mantle convection. Here we show that, in order to match present-day plate motions and net rotation, the frictional parameter must be less than 0.05. We are able to obtain a good fit with the magnitude and orientation of observed plate velocities (NUVEL-1A) in a no-net-rotation (NNR) reference frame with µ < 0.04 and minimum asthenosphere viscosity ~ 5*10e19 Pas to 10e20 Pas. Our estimates of net rotation (NR) of the lithosphere suggest that amplitudes ~ 0.1-0.2 °/Ma, similar to most observation-based estimates, can be obtained with asthenosphere viscosity cutoff values of ~ 10e19 Pas to 5*10e19 Pas and friction coefficient µ < 0.05.
The second part of the study investigates further constraints on shallow and deep mantle heterogeneities causing plate motion by predicting lithosphere stress field and topography and validating with observations. Lithosphere stresses and dynamic topography are computed using the modelling setup and rheological parameters for prescribed plate motions. We validate our results with the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observed residual topography. Here we tested a number of upper mantle thermal-density structures. The one used to calculate plate motions is considered the reference thermal-density structure. This model is derived from a heat flow model combined with a sea floor age model. In addition we used three different thermal-density structures derived from global S-wave velocity models to show the influence of lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km on model predictions. A large portion of the total dynamic force generating stresses in the crust/lithosphere has its origin in the deep mantle, while topography is largely influenced by shallow heterogeneities. For example, there is hardly any difference between the stress orientation patterns predicted with and without consideration of the heterogeneities in the upper mantle density structure across North America, Australia, and North Africa. However, the crust is dominant in areas of high altitude for the stress orientation compared to the all deep mantle contribution.
This study explores the sensitivity of all the considered surface observables with regards to model parameters providing insights into the influence of the asthenosphere and plate boundary rheology on plate motion as we test various thermal-density structures to predict stresses and topography.
Trends in precipitation over Germany and the Rhine basin related to changes in weather patterns
(2017)
Precipitation as the central meteorological feature for agriculture, water security, and human well-being amongst others, has gained special attention ever since. Lack of precipitation may have devastating effects such as crop failure and water scarcity. Abundance of precipitation, on the other hand, may as well result in hazardous events such as flooding and again crop failure. Thus, great effort has been spent on tracking changes in precipitation and relating them to underlying processes. Particularly in the face of global warming and given the link between temperature and atmospheric water holding capacity, research is needed to understand the effect of climate change on precipitation.
The present work aims at understanding past changes in precipitation and other meteorological variables. Trends were detected for various time periods and related to associated changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results derived in this thesis may be used as the foundation for attributing changes in floods to climate change. Assumptions needed for the downscaling of large-scale circulation model output to local climate stations are tested and verified here.
In a first step, changes in precipitation over Germany were detected, focussing not only on precipitation totals, but also on properties of the statistical distribution, transition probabilities as a measure for wet/dry spells, and extreme precipitation events.
Shifting the spatial focus to the Rhine catchment as one of the major water lifelines of Europe and the largest river basin in Germany, detected trends in precipitation and other meteorological variables were analysed in relation to states of an ``optimal'' weather pattern classification. The weather pattern classification was developed seeking the best skill in explaining the variance of local climate variables.
The last question addressed whether observed changes in local climate variables are attributable to changes in the frequency of weather patterns or rather to changes within the patterns itself. A common assumption for a downscaling approach using weather patterns and a stochastic weather generator is that climate change is expressed only as a changed occurrence of patterns with the pattern properties remaining constant. This assumption was validated and the ability of the latest generation of general circulation models to reproduce the weather patterns was evaluated.
% Paper 1
Precipitation changes in Germany in the period 1951-2006 can be summarised briefly as negative in summer and positive in all other seasons. Different precipitation characteristics confirm the trends in total precipitation: while winter mean and extreme precipitation have increased, wet spells tend to be longer as well (expressed as increased probability for a wet day followed by another wet day). For summer the opposite was observed: reduced total precipitation, supported by decreasing mean and extreme precipitation and reflected in an increasing length of dry spells.
Apart from this general summary for the whole of Germany, the spatial distribution within the country is much more differentiated. Increases in winter precipitation are most pronounced in the north-west and south-east of Germany, while precipitation increases are highest in the west for spring and in the south for autumn. Decreasing summer precipitation was observed in most regions of Germany, with particular focus on the south and west.
The seasonal picture, however, was again differently represented in the contributing months, e.g.\ increasing autumn precipitation in the south of Germany is formed by strong trends in the south-west in October and in the south-east in November. These results emphasise the high spatial and temporal organisation of precipitation changes.
% Paper 2
The next step towards attributing precipitation trends to changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns was the derivation of a weather pattern classification that sufficiently stratifies the local climate variables under investigation. Focussing on temperature, radiation, and humidity in addition to precipitation, a classification based on mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and specific humidity was found to have the best skill in explaining the variance of the local variables. A rather high number of 40 patterns was selected, allowing typical pressure patterns being assigned to specific seasons by the associated temperature patterns. While the skill in explaining precipitation variance is rather low, better skill was achieved for radiation and, of course, temperature.
Most of the recent GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble were found to reproduce these weather patterns sufficiently well in terms of frequency, seasonality, and persistence.
% Paper 3
Finally, the weather patterns were analysed for trends in pattern frequency, seasonality, persistence, and trends in pattern-specific precipitation and temperature. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years were considered. Thus, the assumption of a constant link between patterns and local weather was tested rigorously. This assumption was found to hold true only partly. While changes in temperature are mainly attributable to changes in pattern frequency, for precipitation a substantial amount of change was detected within individual patterns.
Magnitude and even sign of trends depend highly on the selected time period. The frequency of certain patterns is related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes.
Changes in precipitation were found to be heterogeneous not only in space, but also in time - statements on trends are only valid for the specific time period under investigation. While some part of the trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale circulation, distinct changes were found within single weather patterns as well.
The results emphasise the need to analyse multiple periods for thorough trend detection wherever possible and add some note of caution to the application of downscaling approaches based on weather patterns, as they might misinterpret the effect of climate change due to neglecting within-type trends.
The timing and location of the two largest earthquakes of the 21st century (Sumatra, 2004 and Tohoku 2011, events) greatly surprised the scientific community, indicating that the deformation processes that precede and follow great megathrust earthquakes remain enigmatic. During these phases before and after the earthquake a combination of multi-scale complex processes are acting simultaneously: Stresses built up by long-term tectonic motions are modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, before being restored by multiple ensuing relaxation processes.
This thesis details a cross-scale thermomechanical model developed with the aim of simulating the entire subduction process from earthquake (1 minute) to million years’ time scale, excluding only rupture propagation. The model employs elasticity, non-linear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences, and, by using an adaptive time-step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally over single and multiple seismic cycles. The model is thoroughly tested by comparing results to those from known high- resolution solutions of generic modeling setups widely used in modeling of rupture propagation. It is demonstrated, that while not modeling rupture propagation explicitly, the modeling procedure correctly recognizes the appearance of instability (earthquake) and correctly simulates the cumulative slip at a fault during great earthquake by means of a quasi-dynamic approximation.
A set of 2D models is used to study the effects of non-linear transient rheology on the postseismic processes following great earthquakes. Our models predict that the viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by 3 to 4 orders of magnitude during a great earthquake with magnitude above 9. This drop in viscosity results in spatial scales and timings of the relaxation processes following the earthquakes that are significantly different to previous estimates. These models replicate centuries long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes (like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake) and are consistent with the major features of postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake.
The 2D models are also applied to study key factors controlling maximum magnitudes of earthquakes in subduction zones. Even though methods of instrumentally observing earthquakes at subduction zones have rapidly improved in recent decades, the characteristic recurrence interval of giant earthquakes (Mw>8.5) is much larger than the currently available observational record and therefore the necessary conditions for giant earthquakes are not clear. Statistical studies have recognized the importance of the slab shape and its surface roughness, state of the strain of the upper plate and thickness of sediments filling the trenches. In this thesis we attempt to explain these observations and to identify key controlling parameters. We test a set of 2D models representing great earthquake seismic cycles at known subduction zones with various known geometries, megathrust friction coefficients, and convergence rates implemented. We found that low-angle subduction (large effect) and thick sediments in the subduction channel (smaller effect) are the fundamental necessary conditions for generating giant earthquakes, while the change of subduction velocity from 10 to 3.5 cm/yr has a lower effect. Modeling results also suggest that having thick sediments in the subduction channel causes low static friction, resulting in neutral or slightly compressive deformation in the overriding plate for low-angle subduction zones. These modeling results agree well with observations for the largest earthquakes. The model predicts the largest possible earthquakes for subduction zones of given dipping angles. The predicted maximum magnitudes exactly threshold magnitudes of all known giant earthquakes of 20th and 21st centuries.
The clear limitation of most of the models developed in the thesis is their 2D nature. Development of 3D models with comparable resolution and complexity will require significant advances in numerical techniques. Nevertheless, we conducted a series of low-resolution 3D models to study the interaction between two large asperities at a subduction interface separated by an aseismic gap of varying width. The novelty of the model is that it considers behavior of the asperities during multiple seismic cycles. As expected, models show that an aseismic gap with a narrow width could not prevent rupture propagation from one asperity to another, and that rupture always crosses the entire model. When the gap becomes too wide, asperities do not interact anymore and rupture independently. However, an interesting mode of interaction was observed in the model with an intermediate width of the aseismic gap: In this model the asperities began to stably rupture in anti-phase following multiple seismic cycles. These 3D modeling results, while insightful, must be considered preliminary because of the limitations in resolution.
The technique developed in this thesis for cross-scale modeling of seismic cycles can be used to study the effects of multiple seismic cycles on the long-term deformation of the upper plate. The technique can be also extended to the case of continental transform faults and for the advanced 3D modeling of specific subduction zones. This will require further development of numerical techniques and adaptation of the existing advanced highly scalable parallel codes like LAMEM and ASPECT.
This study combines spaceborne multitemporal and hyperspectral data to analyze the spatial distribution of surface evaporite minerals and changes in a semi-arid depositional environment associated with episodic flooding events, the Omongwa salt pan (Kalahari, Namibia). The dynamic of the surface crust is evaluated by a change-detection approach using the Iterative-reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD) based on the Landsat archive imagery from 1984 to 2015. The results show that the salt pan is a highly dynamic and heterogeneous landform. A change gradient is observed from very stable pan border to a highly dynamic central pan. On the basis of hyperspectral EO-1 Hyperion images, the current distribution of surface evaporite minerals is characterized using Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). Assessment of field and image endmembers revealed that the pan surface can be categorized into three major crust types based on diagnostic absorption features and mineralogical ground truth data. The mineralogical crust types are related to different zones of surface change as well as pan morphology that influences brine flow during the pan inundation and desiccation cycles. These combined information are used to spatially map depositional environments where the more dynamic halite crust concentrates in lower areas although stable gypsum and calcite/sepiolite crusts appear in higher elevated areas.
EnGeoMAP 2.0
(2017)
Algorithms for a rapid analysis of hyperspectral data are becoming more and more important with planned next generation spaceborne hyperspectral missions such as the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) and the Japanese Hyperspectral Imager Suite (HISUI), together with an ever growing pool of hyperspectral airborne data. The here presented EnGeoMAP 2.0 algorithm is an automated system for material characterization from imaging spectroscopy data, which builds on the theoretical framework of the Tetracorder and MICA (Material Identification and Characterization Algorithm) of the United States Geological Survey and of EnGeoMAP 1.0 from 2013. EnGeoMAP 2.0 includes automated absorption feature extraction, spatio-spectral gradient calculation and mineral anomaly detection. The usage of EnGeoMAP 2.0 is demonstrated at the mineral deposit sites of Rodalquilar (SE-Spain) and Haib River (S-Namibia) using HyMAP and simulated EnMAP data. Results from Hyperion data are presented as supplementary information.
Borehole instabilities are frequently encountered when drilling through finely laminated, organic rich shales (Økland and Cook, 1998; Ottesen, 2010; etc.); such instabilities should be avoided to assure a successful exploitation and safe production of the contained unconventional hydrocarbons. Borehole instabilities, such as borehole breakouts or drilling induced tensile fractures, may lead to poor cementing of the borehole annulus, difficulties with recording and interpretation of geophysical logs, low directional control and in the worst case the loss of the well. If these problems are not recognized and expertly remedied, pollution of the groundwater or the emission of gases into the atmosphere can occur since the migration paths of the hydrocarbons in the subsurface are not yet fully understood (e.g., Davies et al., 2014; Zoback et al., 2010). In addition, it is often mentioned that the drilling problems encountered and the resulting downtimes of the wellbore system in finely laminated shales significantly increase drilling costs (Fjaer et al., 2008; Aadnoy and Ong, 2003).
In order to understand and reduce the borehole instabilities during drilling in unconventional shales, we investigate stress-induced irregular extensions of the borehole diameter, which are also referred to as borehole breakouts. For this purpose, experiments with different borehole diameters, bedding plane angles and stress boundary conditions were performed on finely laminated Posidonia shales. The Lower Jurassic Posidonia shale is one of the most productive source rocks for conventional reservoirs in Europe and has the greatest potential for unconventional oil and gas in Europe (Littke et al., 2011).
In this work, Posidonia shale specimens from the North (PN) and South (PS) German basins were selected and characterized petrophysically and mechanically. The composition of the two shales is dominated by calcite (47-56%) followed by clays (23-28%) and quartz (16-17%). The remaining components are mainly pyrite and organic matter. The porosity of the shales varies considerably and is up to 10% for PS and 1% for PN, which is due to a larger deposition depth of PN. Both shales show marked elasticity and strength anisotropy, which can be attributed to a macroscopic distribution and orientation of soft and hard minerals. Under load the hard minerals form a load-bearing, supporting structure, while the soft minerals compensate the deformation. Therefore, if loaded parallel to the bedding, the Posidonia shale is more brittle than loaded normal to the bedding. The resulting elastic anisotropy, which can be defined by the ratio of the modulus of elasticity parallel and normal to the bedding, is about 50%, while the strength anisotropy (i.e., the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength normal and parallel to the bedding) is up to 66%. Based on the petrophysical characterization of the two rocks, a transverse isotropy (TVI) was derived. In general, PS is softer and weaker than PN, which is due to the stronger compaction of the material due to the higher burial depth.
Conventional triaxial borehole breakout experiments on specimens with different borehole diameters showed that, when the diameter of the borehole is increased, the stress required to initiate borehole breakout decreases to a constant value. This value can be expressed as the ratio of the tangential stress and the uniaxial compressive strength of the rock. The ratio increases exponentially with decreasing borehole diameter from about 2.5 for a 10 mm diameter hole to ~ 7 for a 1 mm borehole (increase of initiation stress by 280%) and can be described by a fracture mechanic based criterion. The reduction in borehole diameter is therefore a considerable aspect in reducing the risk of breakouts. New drilling techniques with significantly reduced borehole diameters, such as "fish-bone" holes, are already underway and are currently being tested (e.g., Xing et al., 2012).
The observed strength anisotropy and the TVI material behavior are also reflected in the observed breakout processes at the borehole wall. Drill holes normal to the bedding develop breakouts in a plane of isotropy and are not affected by the strength or elasticity anisotropy. The observed breakouts are point-symmetric and form compressive shear failure planes, which can be predicted by a Mohr-Coulomb failure approach. If the shear failure planes intersect, conjugate breakouts can be described as "dog-eared” breakouts.
While the initiation of breakouts for wells oriented normal to the stratification has been triggered by random local defects, reduced strengths parallel to bedding planes are the starting point for breakouts for wells parallel to the bedding. In the case of a deflected borehole trajectory, therefore, the observed failure type changes from shear-induced failure surfaces to buckling failure of individual layer packages. In addition, the breakout depths and widths increased, resulting in a stress-induced enlargement of the borehole cross-section and an increased output of rock material into the borehole. With the transition from shear to buckling failure and changing bedding plane angle with respect to the borehole axis, the stress required for inducing wellbore breakouts drops by 65%.
These observations under conventional triaxial stress boundary conditions could also be confirmed under true triaxial stress conditions. Here breakouts grew into the rock as a result of buckling failure, too. In this process, the broken layer packs rotate into the pressure-free drill hole and detach themselves from the surrounding rock by tensile cracking. The final breakout shape in Posidonia shale can be described as trapezoidal when the bedding planes are parallel to the greatest horizontal stress and to the borehole axis. In the event that the largest horizontal stress is normal to the stratification, breakouts were formed entirely by shear fractures between the stratification and required higher stresses to initiate similar to breakouts in conventional triaxial experiments with boreholes oriented normal to the bedding.
In the content of this work, a fracture mechanics-based failure criterion for conventional triaxial loading conditions in isotropic rocks (Dresen et al., 2010) has been successfully extended to true triaxial loading conditions in the transverse isotropic rock to predict the initiation of borehole breakouts. The criterion was successfully verified on the experiments carried out.
The extended failure criterion and the conclusions from the laboratory and numerical work may help to reduce the risk of borehole breakouts in unconventional shales.
Remote sensing technology serves as a powerful tool for analyzing geospatial characteristics of flood inundation events at various scales. However, the performance of remote sensing methods depends heavily on the flood characteristics and landscape settings. Difficulties might be encountered in mapping the extent of localized flooding with shallow water on riverine floodplain areas, where patches of herbaceous vegetation are interspersed with open water surfaces. To address the difficulties in mapping inundation on areas with complex water and vegetation compositions, a high spatial resolution dataset has to be used to reduce the problem of mixed pixels. The main objective of our study was to investigate the possibilities of using a single date WorldView-2 image of very high spatial resolution and supporting data to analyze spatial patterns of localized flooding on a riverine floodplain. We used a decision tree algorithm with various combinations of input variables including spectral bands of the WorldView-2 image, selected spectral indices dedicated to mapping water surfaces and vegetation, and topographic data. The overall accuracies of the twelve flood extent maps derived with the decision tree method and performed on both pixels and image objects ranged between 77% and 95%. The highest mapping overall accuracy was achieved with a method that utilized all available input data and the object-based image analysis. Our study demonstrates the possibility of using single date WorldView-2 data for analyzing flooding events at high spatial detail despite the absence of spectral bands from the short-waveform region that are frequently used in water related studies. Our study also highlights the importance of topographic data in inundation analyses. The greatest difficulties were met in mapping water surfaces under dense canopy herbaceous vegetation, due to limited water surface exposure and the dominance of vegetation reflectance.
Both Alpine and Mediterranean areas are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods which are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazards from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes the climatological and physical conditions that could influence the hydrology and sediment generation and hence the conveyance of water and sediments (including the river’s capacity, i.e. amount of sediment, and competence, i.e. channel deformation) and the vulnerabilities and economic repercussions of changing hydrological hazards (including the evaluation of the hydro-geomorphological risks too).
Within this framework, the purpose of this international symposium is to bring together researchers from several disciplines as hydrology, fluvial geomorphology, hydraulic engineering, environmental science, geography, economy (and any other related discipline) to discuss the effects of global change over the river system in relation with floods. The symposium is organized by means of invited talks given by prominent experts, oral lectures, poster sessions and discussion sessions for each individual topic; it will try to improve our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change and hence address the associated hazards of that fluvial environmental change concerning flooding.
Four main topics are going to be addressed:
- Modelling global change (i.e. climate and land-use) at relevant spatial (regional, local) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales.
- Measuring and modelling river floods from the hydrological, sediment transport (both suspended and bedload) and channel morphology points of view at different spatial (from the catchment to the reach) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales.
- Evaluation and assessment of current and future river flooding hazards and risks in a global change perspective.
- Catchment management to face river floods in a changing world.
We are very pleased to welcome you to Potsdam. We hope you will enjoy your participation at the International Symposium on the Effects of Global Change on Floods, Fluvial Geomorphology and Related Hazards in Mountainous Rivers and have an exciting and profitable experience. Finally, we would like to thank all speakers, participants, supporters, and sponsors for their contributions that for sure will make of this event a very remarkable and fruitful meeting. We acknowledge the valuable support of the European Commission (Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship, Project ‘‘Floodhazards’’, PIEF-GA-2013-622468, Seventh EU Framework Programme) and the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange; GRK 2043/1) as the symposium would not have been possible without their help. Without your cooperation, this symposium would not be either possible or successful.
Die genauen Einsatzzeiten seismischer P-Phasen von Erdbeben werden in SeisComP3 und anderen Auswerteprogrammen standardmäßig und in Echtzeit automatisch bestimmt. S-Phasen stellen dagegen eine weit größere Herausforderung dar. Nur mit genauen Picks der P- bzw. S-Phasen können die Erdbebenlokationen korrekt und stabil bestimmt werden. Darum besteht erhebliches Interesse, diese mit hoher Genauigkeit zu bestimmen. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Bachelorarbeit war es, vier verschiedene, bereits vorhandene S-Phasenpicker auf ausgewählte Parameter optimal zu konfigurieren, auf Testdaten anzuwenden und deren Leistungsfähigkeit objektiv zu bewerten. Dazu wurden ein S-Picker (S-L2) aus dem OpenSource SeisComp3-Programmpaket, zwei S-Picker (S-AIC, S-AIC-V) als kommerzielles Modul der Firma gempa GmbH für SeisComP3 und ein S-Picker (Frequenzband) aus dem OpenSource PhasePaPy-Paket ausgewählt. Die Bewertung erfolgte durch Vergleich automatischer Picks mit manuell bestimmten Einsatzzeiten. Alle vier Picker wurden separat konfiguriert und auf drei verschiedene Datensätze von Erdbeben in N-Chile und im Vogtland, Deutschland, angewandt. Dazu wurden regional bzw. lokal typische Erdbeben zufällig ausgewählt und die P- und S-Phasen manuell bestimmt. Mit den zu testenden S-Pickeralgorithmen wurden dieselben Daten durchsucht und die Picks automatisch bestimmt. Die Konfigurationen der Picker wurden gleichzeitig automatisch und objektiv durch iterative Anpassung optimiert. Ein neu erstelltes Bewertungssystem vergleicht die manuellen und die automatisch gefundenen S-Picks anhand von definierten Qualitätsfaktoren. Die Qualitätsfaktoren sind: der Mittelwert und die Standardabweichung der zeitlichen Differenzen zwischen den S-Picks, die Anzahl an übereinstimmenden S-Picks, die Prozentangaben über mögliche S-Picks und die benötigt Rechenzeit. Die objektive Bewertung erfolgte anhand eines Scores. Der Scorewert ergibt sich aus der gewichteten Summe folgender normierter Qualitätsfaktoren: Standardabweichung (20%), Mittelwert (20%) und Prozentangabe über mögliche S-Picks (60%). Konfigurationen mit hohem Score werden bevorzugt. Die bevorzugten Konfigurationen der verschiedenen Picker wurden miteinander verglichen, um den am besten geeigneten S-Pickeralgorithmus zu bestimmen. Allgemein zeigt sich, dass der S-AIC Picker für jeden der drei Datensätze die höchsten Scores und damit die besten Ergebnisse liefert. Dabei wurde für jeden Datensatz ein andere Konfiguration der Parameter des S-AIC Pickers als die am besten geeignete bezeichnet. Daher ist für jede Erdbebenregion eine andere Konfigurationen erforderlich, um optimale Ergebnisse mit diesem S-Picker zu bekommen.
In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio) geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct similar to 1500year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
Natural and potentially hazardous events occur on the Earth’s surface every day. The most destructive of these processes must be monitored, because they may cause loss of lives, infrastructure, and natural resources, or have a negative effect on the environment. A variety of remote sensing technologies allow the recoding of data to detect these processes in the first place, partly based on the diagnostic landforms that they form. To perform this effectively, automatic methods are desirable.
Universal detection of natural hazards is challenging due to their differences in spatial impacts, timing and longevity of consequences, and the spatial resolution of remote-sensing data. Previous studies have reported that topographic metrics such as roughness, which can be captured from digital elevation data, can reveal landforms diagnostic of natural hazards, such as gullies, dunes, lava fields, landslides and snow avalanches, as these landforms tend to be more heterogeneous than the surrounding landscape. A single roughness metric is often limited in such detections; however, a more complex approach that exploits the spatial relation and the location of objects, such as object-based image analysis (OBIA), is desirable.
In this thesis, I propose a topographic roughness measure derived from an airborne laser scanning (ALS) digital terrain model (DTM) and discuss its performance in detecting landforms principally diagnostic of natural hazards. I further develop OBIA-based algorithms for the detection of snow avalanches using near-infrared (NIR) aerial images, and the size (changes) of mountain lakes using LANDSAT satellite images. I quantitatively test and document how the level of difficulty in detecting these very challenging landforms depends on the input data resolution, the derivatives that could be evaluated from images and DTMs, the size, shape and complexity of landforms, and the capabilities of obtaining the information in the data. I demonstrate that surface roughness is a promising metric for detecting different landforms in diverse environments, and that OBIA assists significantly in detecting parts of lakes and snow avalanches that may not be correctly assigned by applying only the thresholding of spectral properties of data and their derivatives.
The curvature-based surface roughness parameter allows the detection of gullies, dunes, lava fields and landslides with a user’s accuracy of 0.63, 0.21, 0.53, and 0.45, respectively. The OBIA algorithms for detecting lakes and snow avalanches obtained user’s accuracy of 0.98, and 0.78, respectively. Most of the analysed landforms constituted only a small part of the entire dataset, and therefore the user’s accuracy is the most appropriate performance measure that should be given in a such classification, because it tells how many automatically-extracted pixels in fact represent the object that one wants to classify, and its calculation does not take the second (background) class into account. One advantage of the proposed roughness parameter is that it allows the extraction of the heterogeneity of the surface without the need for data detrending. The OBIA approach is novel in that it allows the classification of lakes regardless of the physical state of their water, and also allows the separation of frozen lakes from glaciers that have very similar water indices used in purely optical remote sensing applications. The algorithm proposed for snow avalanches allows the detection of release zones, tracks, and deposition zones by verifying the snow heterogeneity based on a roughness metric evaluated from a water index, and by analysing the local relation of segments with their neighbouring objects. This algorithm contains few steps, which allows for the simultaneous classification of avalanches that occur on diverse mountain slopes and differ in size and shape.
This thesis contributes to natural hazard research as it provides automatic solutions to tracking six different landforms that are diagnostic of natural hazards over large regions. This is a step toward delineating areas susceptible to the processes producing these landforms and the improvement of hazard maps.
Model-Based attribution of high-resolution streamflow trends in two alpine basins of Western Austria
(2017)
Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment) with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower altitudes during the study period.
Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.
Natural hazards can have serious societal and economic impacts. Worldwide, around one third of economic losses due to natural hazards are attributable to floods. The majority of natural hazards are triggered by weather-related extremes such as heavy precipitation, rapid snow melt, or extreme temperatures. Some of them, and in particular floods, are expected to further increase in terms of frequency and/or intensity in the coming decades due to the impacts of climate change. In this context, the European Alps areas are constantly disclosed as being particularly sensitive.
In order to enhance the resilience of societies to natural hazards, risk assessments are substantial as they can deliver comprehensive risk information to be used as a basis for effective and sustainable decision-making in natural hazards management. So far, current assessment approaches mostly focus on single societal or economic sectors – e.g. flood damage models largely concentrate on private-sector housing – and other important sectors, such as the transport infrastructure sector, are widely neglected. However, transport infrastructure considerably contributes to economic and societal welfare, e.g. by ensuring mobility of people and goods. In Austria, for example, the national railway network is essential for the European transit of passengers and freights as well as for the development of the complex Alpine topography. Moreover, a number of recent experiences show that railway infrastructure and transportation is highly vulnerable to natural hazards. As a consequence, the Austrian Federal Railways had to cope with economic losses on the scale of several million euros as a result of flooding and other alpine hazards.
The motivation of this thesis is to contribute to filling the gap of knowledge about damage to railway infrastructure caused by natural hazards by providing new risk information for actors and stakeholders involved in the risk management of railway transportation. Hence, in order to support the decision-making towards a more effective and sustainable risk management, the following two shortcomings in natural risks research are approached: i) the lack of dedicated models to estimate flood damage to railway infrastructure, and ii) the scarcity of insights into possible climate change impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events with focus on future implications for railway transportation in Austria.
With regard to flood impacts to railway infrastructure, the empirically derived damage model Railway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) proved expedient to reliably estimate both structural flood damage at exposed track sections of the Northern Railway and resulting repair cost. The results show that the RAIL model is capable of identifying flood risk hot spots along the railway network and, thus, facilitates the targeted planning and implementation of (technical) risk reduction measures. However, the findings of this study also show that the development and validation of flood damage models for railway infrastructure is generally constrained by the continuing lack of detailed event and damage data.
In order to provide flood risk information on the large scale to support strategic flood risk management, the RAIL model was applied for the Austrian Mur River catchment using three different hydraulic scenarios as input as well as considering an increased risk aversion of the railway operator. Results indicate that the model is able to deliver comprehensive risk information also on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that the aspect of risk aversion can have marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.
Looking at the results of the investigation on future frequencies of extreme weather events jeopardizing railway infrastructure and transportation in Austria, it appears that an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves has to be expected, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of extremes are rather sensitive to changes of the underlying thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and — if needed — to adapt the thresholds that are used to detect and forecast meteorological extremes. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a prerequisite.
Overall, the findings of the research presented in this thesis agree on the necessity to improve event and damage documentation procedures in order to enable the acquisition of comprehensive and reliable risk information via risk assessments and, thus, support strategic natural hazards management of railway infrastructure and transportation.
In the arable soil landscape of hummocky ground moraines, an erosion-affected spatial differentiation of soils can be observed. Man-made erosion leads to soil profile modifications along slopes with changed solum thickness and modified properties of soil horizons due to water erosion in combination with tillage operations. Soil erosion creates, thereby, spatial patterns of soil properties (e.g., texture and organic matter content) and differences in crop development. However, little is known about the manner in which water fluxes are affected by soil-crop interactions depending on contrasting properties of differently-developed soil horizons and how water fluxes influence the carbon transport in an eroded landscape. To identify such feedbacks between erosion-induced soil profile modifications and the 1D-water and solute balance, high-precision weighing lysimeters equipped with a wide range of sensor technique were filled with undisturbed soil monoliths that differed in the degree of past soil erosion. Furthermore, lysimeter effluent concentrations were analyzed for dissolved carbon fractions in bi-weekly intervals.
The water balance components measured by high precision lysimeters varied from the most eroded to the less eroded monolith up to 83 % (deep drainage) primarily caused due to varying amounts of precipitation and evapotranspiration for a 3-years period. Here, interactions between crop development and contrasting rainfall interception by above ground biomass could explain differences in water balance components. Concentrations of dissolved carbon in soil water samples were relatively constant in time, suggesting carbon leaching was mainly affected by water fluxes in this observation period. For the lysimeter-based water balance analysis, a filtering scheme was developed considering temporal autocorrelation. The minute-based autocorrelation analysis of mass changes from lysimeter time series revealed characteristic autocorrelation lengths ranging from 23 to 76 minutes. Thereby, temporal autocorrelation provided an optimal approximation of precipitation quantities. However, the high temporal resolution in lysimeter time series is restricted by the lengths of autocorrelation.
Erosion-induced but also gradual changes in soil properties were reflected by dynamics of soil water retention properties in the lysimeter soils. Short-term and long-term hysteretic water retention data suggested seasonal wettability problems of soils increasingly limited rewetting of previously dried pore regions. Differences in water retention were assigned to soil tillage operations and the erosion history at different slope positions. The threedimensional spatial pattern of soil types that result from erosional soil profile modifications were also reflected in differences of crop root development at different landscape positions. Contrasting root densities revealed positive relations of root and aboveground plant characteristics. Differences in the spatially-distributed root growth between different eroded soil types provided indications that root development was affected by the erosion-induced soil evolution processes.
Overall, the current thesis corroborated the hypothesis that erosion-induced soil profile modifications affect the soil water balance, carbon leaching and soil hydraulic properties, but also the crop root system is influenced by erosion-induced spatial patterns of soil properties in the arable hummocky post glacial soil landscape. The results will help to improve model predictions of water and solute movement in arable soils and to understand interactions between soil erosion and carbon pathways regarding sink-or-source terms in landscapes.
Detection and Kirchhoff-type migration of seismic events by use of a new characteristic function
(2017)
The classical method of seismic event localization is based on the picking of body wave arrivals, ray tracing and inversion of travel time data. Travel time picks with small uncertainties are required to produce reliable and accurate results with this kind of source localization. Hence recordings, with a low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) cannot be used in a travel time based inversion. Low SNR can be related with weak signals from distant and/or low magnitude sources as well as with a high level of ambient noise. Diffraction stacking is considered as an alternative seismic event localization method that enables also the processing of low SNR recordings by mean of stacking the amplitudes of seismograms along a travel time function. The location of seismic event and its origin time are determined based on the highest stacked amplitudes (coherency) of the image function. The method promotes an automatic processing since it does not need travel time picks as input data.
However, applying diffraction stacking may require longer computation times if only limited computer resources are used. Furthermore, a simple diffraction stacking of recorded amplitudes could possibly fail to locate the seismic sources if the focal mechanism leads to complex radiation patterns which typically holds for both natural and induced seismicity.
In my PhD project, I have developed a new work flow for the localization of seismic events which is based on a diffraction stacking approach. A parallelized code was implemented for the calculation of travel time tables and for the determination of an image function to reduce computation time. In order to address the effects from complex source radiation patterns, I also suggest to compute diffraction stacking from a characteristic function (CF) instead of stacking the original wave form data. A new CF, which is called in the following mAIC (modified from Akaike Information Criterion) is proposed. I demonstrate that, the performance of the mAIC does not depend on the chosen length of the analyzed time window and that both P- and S-wave onsets can be detected accurately. To avoid cross-talk between P- and S-waves due to inaccurate velocity models, I separate the P- and S-waves from the mAIC function by making use of polarization attributes. Then, eventually the final image function is represented by the largest eigenvalue as a result of the covariance analysis between P- and S-image functions. Before applying diffraction stacking, I also apply seismogram denoising by using Otsu thresholding in the time-frequency domain.
Results from synthetic experiments show that the proposed diffraction stacking provides reliable results even from seismograms with low SNR=1. Tests with different presentations of the synthetic seismograms (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) shown that, acceleration seismograms deliver better results in case of high SNR, whereas displacement seismograms provide more accurate results in case of low SNR recordings. In another test, different measures (maximum amplitude, other statistical parameters) were used to determine the source location in the final image function. I found that the statistical approach is the preferred method particularly for low SNR.
The work flow of my diffraction stacking method was finally applied to local earthquake data from Sumatra, Indonesia. Recordings from a temporary network of 42 stations deployed for 9 months around the Tarutung pull-apart Basin were analyzed. The seismic event locations resulting from the diffraction stacking method align along a segment of the Sumatran Fault. A more complex distribution of seismicity is imaged within and around the Tarutung Basin. Two lineaments striking N-S were found in the middle of the Tarutung Basin which support independent results from structural geology. These features are interpreted as opening fractures due to local extension. A cluster of seismic events repeatedly occurred in short time which might be related to fluid drainage since two hot springs are observed at the surface near to this cluster.
In 2009, a group of prominent Earth scientists introduced the "planetary boundaries" (PB) framework: they suggested nine global control variables, and defined corresponding "thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental change". The concept builds on systems theory, and views Earth as a complex adaptive system in which anthropogenic disturbances may trigger non-linear, abrupt, and irreversible changes at the global scale, and "push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene". While the idea has been remarkably successful in both science and policy circles, it has also raised fundamental concerns, as the majority of suggested processes and their corresponding planetary boundaries do not operate at the global scale, and thus apparently lack the potential to trigger abrupt planetary changes.
This paper picks up the debate with specific regard to the planetary boundary on "global freshwater use". While the bio-physical impacts of excessive water consumption are typically confined to the river basin scale, the PB proponents argue that water-induced environmental disasters could build up to planetary-scale feedbacks and system failures. So far, however, no evidence has been presented to corroborate that hypothesis. Furthermore, no coherent approach has been presented to what extent a planetary threshold value could reflect the risk of regional environmental disaster. To be sure, the PB framework was revised in 2015, extending the planetary freshwater boundary with a set of basin-level boundaries inferred from environmental water flow assumptions. Yet, no new evidence was presented, either with respect to the ability of those basin-level boundaries to reflect the risk of regional regime shifts or with respect to a potential mechanism linking river basins to the planetary scale.
So while the idea of a planetary boundary on freshwater use appears intriguing, the line of arguments presented so far remains speculative and implicatory. As long as Earth system science does not present compelling evidence, the exercise of assigning actual numbers to such a boundary is arbitrary, premature, and misleading. Taken as a basis for water-related policy and management decisions, though, the idea transforms from misleading to dangerous, as it implies that we can globally offset water-related environmental impacts. A planetary boundary on freshwater use should thus be disapproved and actively refuted by the hydrological and water resources community.
In the wake of 21st century, humanity witnessed a phenomenal raise of urban agglomerations as powerhouses for innovation and socioeconomic growth. Driving much of national (and in few instances even global) economy, such a gargantuan raise of cities is also accompanied by subsequent increase in energy, resource consumption and waste generation. Much of anthropogenic transformation of Earth's environment in terms of environmental pollution at local level to planetary scale in the form of climate change is currently taking place in cities. Projected to be crucibles for entire humanity by the end of this century, the ultimate fate of humanity predominantly lies in the hands of technological innovation, urbanites' attitudes towards energy/resource consumption and development pathways undertaken by current and future cities. Considering the unparalleled energy, resource consumption and emissions currently attributed to global cities, this thesis addresses these issues from an efficiency point of view. More specifically, this thesis addresses the influence of population size, density, economic geography and technology in improving urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emission efficiency and identifies the factors leading to improved eco-efficiency in cities. In order to investigate the in uence of these factors in improving emission and resource efficiency in cities, a multitude of freely available datasets were coupled with some novel methodologies and analytical approaches in this thesis.
Merging the well-established Kaya Identity to the recently developed urban scaling laws, an Urban Kaya Relation is developed to identify whether large cities are more emission efficient and the intrinsic factors leading to such (in)efficiency. Applying Urban Kaya Relation to a global dataset of 61 cities in 12 countries, this thesis identifed that large cities in developed regions of the world will bring emission efficiency gains because of the better technologies implemented in these cities to produce and utilize energy consumption while the opposite is the case for cities in developing regions. Large cities in developing countries are less efficient mainly because of their affluence and lack of efficient technologies. Apart from the in uence of population size on emission efficiency, this thesis identified the crucial role played by population density in improving building and on-road transport sector related emission efficiency in cities. This is achieved by applying the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) on two different gridded land use datasets and a standard emission inventory to attribute these sectoral emissions to all inhabited settlements in the USA. Results show that doubling the population density would entail a reduction in the total CO2 emissions in buildings and on-road sectors typically by at least 42 %. Irrespective of their population size and density, cities are often blamed for their intensive resource consumption that threatens not only local but also global sustainability. This thesis merged the concept of urban metabolism with benchmarking and identified cities which are eco-efficient. These cities enable better socioeconomic conditions while being less burden to the environment. Three environmental burden indicators (annual average NO2 concentration, per capita waste generation and water consumption) and two socioeconomic indicators (GDP per capita and employment ratio) for 88 most populous European cities are considered in this study. Using two different non-parametric ranking methods namely regression residual ranking and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), eco-efficient cities and their determining factors are identified. This in-depth analysis revealed that mature cities with well-established economic structures such as Munich, Stockholm and Oslo are eco-efficient. Further, correlations between objective eco-efficiency ranking with each of the indicator rankings and the ranking of urbanites' subjective perception about quality of life are analyzed. This analysis revealed that urbanites' perception about quality of life is not merely confined to the socioeconomic well-being but rather to their combination with lower environmental burden.
In summary, the findings of this dissertation has three general conclusions for improving emission and ecological efficiency in cities. Firstly, large cities in emerging nations face a huge challenge with respect to improving their emission efficiency. The task in front of these cities is threefold: (1) deploying efficient technologies for the generation of electricity and improvement of public transportation to unlock their leap frogging potential, (2) addressing the issue of energy poverty and (3) ensuring that these cities do not develop similar energy consumption patterns with infrastructure lock-in behavior similar to those of cities in developed regions. Secondly, the on-going urban sprawl as a global phenomenon will decrease the emission efficiency within the building and transportation sector. Therefore, local policy makers should identify adequate fiscal and land use policies to curb urban sprawl. Lastly, since mature cities with well-established economic structures are more eco-efficient and urbanites' perception re ects its combination with decreasing environmental burden; there is a need to adopt and implement strategies which enable socioeconomic growth in cities whilst decreasing their environment burden.
Steep mountain channels are an important component of the fluvial system. On geological timescales, they shape mountain belts and counteract tectonic uplift by erosion. Their channels are strongly coupled to hillslopes and they are often the main source of sediment transported downstream to low-gradient rivers and to alluvial fans, where commonly settlements in mountainous areas are located. Hence, mountain streams are the cause for one of the main natural hazards in these regions. Due to climate change and a pronounced populating of mountainous regions the attention given to this threat is even growing. Although quantitative studies on sediment transport have significantly advanced our knowledge on measuring and calibration techniques we still lack studies of the processes within mountain catchments. Studies examining the mechanisms of energy and mass exchange on small temporal and spatial scales in steep streams remain sparse in comparison to low-gradient alluvial channels.
In the beginning of this doctoral project, a vast amount of experience and knowledge of a steep stream in the Swiss Prealps had to be consolidated in order to shape the principal aim of this research effort. It became obvious, that observations from within the catchment are underrepresented in comparison to experiments performed at the catchment’s outlet measuring fluxes and the effects of the transported material. To counteract this imbalance, an examination of mass fluxes within the catchment on the process scale was intended. Hence, this thesis is heavily based on direct field observations, which are generally rare in these environments in quantity and quality. The first objective was to investigate the coupling of the channel with surrounding hillslopes, the major sources of sediment. This research, which involved the monitoring of the channel and adjacent hillslopes, revealed that alluvial channel steps play a key role in coupling of channel and hillslopes. The observations showed that hillslope stability is strongly associated with the step presence and an understanding of step morphology and stability is therefore crucial in understanding sediment mobilization. This finding refined the way we think about the sediment dynamics in steep channels and motivated continued research of the step dynamics. However, soon it became obvious that the technological basis for developing field tests and analyzing the high resolution geometry measured in the field was not available. Moreover, for many geometrical quantities in mountain channels definitions and a clear scientific standard was not available. For example, these streams are characterized by a high spatial variability of the channel banks, preventing straightforward calculations of the channel width without a defined reference. Thus, the second and inevitable part of this thesis became the development and evaluation of scientific tools in order to investigate the geometrical content of the study reach thoroughly. The developed framework allowed the derivation of various metrics of step and channel geometry which facilitated research on the a large data set of observations of channel steps. In the third part, innovative, physically-based metrics have been developed and compared to current knowledge on step formation, suggested in the literature. With this analyses it could be demonstrated that the formation of channel steps follow a wide range of hydraulic controls. Due to the wide range of tested parameters channel steps observed in a natural stream were attributed to different mechanisms of step formation, including those based on jamming and those based on key-stones. This study extended our knowledge on step formation in a steep stream and harmonized different, often time seen as competing, processes of step formation. This study was based on observations collected at one point in time. In the fourth part of this project, the findings of the snap-shot observations were extended in the temporal dimension and the derived concepts have been utilized to investigate reach-scale step patterns in response to large, exceptional flood events. The preliminary results of this work based on the long-term analyses of 7 years of long profile surveys showed that the previously observed channel-hillslope mechanism is the responsible for the short-term response of step formation.
The findings of the long-term analyses of step patterns drew a bow to the initial observations of a channel-hillslope system which allowed to join the dots in the dynamics of steep stream. Thus, in this thesis a broad approach has been chosen to gain insights into the complex system of steep mountain rivers. The effort includes in situ field observations (article I), the development of quantitative scientific tools (article II), the reach-scale analyses of step-pool morphology (article III) and its temporal evolution (article IV). With this work our view on the processes within the catchment has been advanced towards a better mechanistic understanding of these fluvial system relevant to improve applied scientific work.
Human development has far-reaching impacts on the surface of the globe. The transformation of natural land cover occurs in different forms, and urban growth is one of the most eminent transformative processes. We analyze global land cover data and extract cities as defined by maximally connected urban clusters. The analysis of the city size distribution for all cities on the globe confirms Zipf’s law. Moreover, by investigating the percolation properties of the clustering of urban areas we assess the closeness to criticality for various countries. At the critical thresholds, the urban land cover of the countries undergoes a transition from separated clusters to a gigantic component on the country scale. We study the Zipf-exponents as a function of the closeness to percolation and find a systematic dependence, which could be the reason for deviating exponents reported in the literature. Moreover, we investigate the average size of the clusters as a function of the proximity to percolation and find country specific behavior. By relating the standard deviation and the average of cluster sizes—analogous to Taylor’s law—we suggest an alternative way to identify the percolation transition. We calculate spatial correlations of the urban land cover and find long-range correlations. Finally, by relating the areas of cities with population figures we address the global aspect of the allometry of cities, finding an exponent δ ≈ 0.85, i.e., large cities have lower densities.
The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
Estuarine marshes are ecosystems that are situated at the transition zone between land and water and are thus controlled by physical and biological interactions. Marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services by filtrating solid and dissolved substances from the water and providing habitat. By buffering a large part of the arriving flow velocity, attenuating wave energy and serving as erosion control for riverbanks, tidal marshes furthermore reduce the destructive effects of storm surges and storm waves and thus contribute to ecosystem-based shore protection. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. Global warming might entail additional risks, such as changes in water levels, an increase of the tidal amplitude and a resulting shift of the salinity zones. This can affect the dynamics of the shore and foreland vegetation, and vegetation belts can be narrowed or fragmented. Against this background, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of the processes underlying the spatio temporal vegetation dynamics in brackish marshes. Furthermore, a better understanding of how plant-habitat relationships generate patterns in tidal marsh vegetation is vital to maintain ecosystem functions and assess the response of marshes to environmental change as well as the success of engineering and restoration projects.
For this purpose, three research objectives were addressed within this thesis: (1) to explore the possibility of vegetation serving as self-adaptive shore protection by quantifying the reduction of current velocity in the vegetation belt and the morphologic plasticity of a brackish marsh pioneer, (2) to disentangle the roles of abiotic factors and interspecific competition on species distribution and stand characteristics in brackish marshes, and (3) to develop a mechanistic vegetation model that helps analysing the influence of habitat conditions on the spatio-temporal dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. These aspects were investigated using a combination of field studies and statistical as well as process-based modelling.
To explore the possibility of vegetation serving as self-adaptive coastal protection, in the first study, we measured current velocity with and without living vegetation, recorded ramet density and plant thickness during two growing periods at two locations in the Elbe estuary and assessed the adaptive value of a larger stem diameter of plants at locations with higher mechanical stress by biomechanical measurements. The results of this study show that under non-storm conditions, the vegetation belt of the marsh pioneer Bolboschoenus maritimus is able to buffer a large proportion of the flow velocity. We were furthermore able to show that morphological traits of plant species are adapted to hydrodynamic forces by demonstrating a positive correlation between ramet thickness and cross-shore current. In addition, our measurements revealed that thicker ramets growing at the front of the vegetation belt have a significantly higher stability than ramets inside the vegetation belt. This self-adaptive effect improves the ability of B. maritimus to grow and persist in the pioneer zone and could provide an adaptive value in habitats with high mechanical stress.
In the second study, we assessed the distribution of the two marsh species and a set of stand characteristics, namely aboveground and belowground biomass, ramet density, ramet height and the percentage of flowering ramets. Furthermore, we collected information on several abiotic habitat factors to test their effect on plant growth and zonation with generalised linear models (GLMs). Our results demonstrate that flow velocity is the main factor controlling the distribution of Bolboschoenus maritimus and Phragmites australis. Additionally, inundation height and duration, as well as intraspecific competition affect distribution patterns. This study furthermore shows that cross-shore flow velocity does not only directly influence the distribution of the two marsh species, but also alters the plants’ occurrence relative to inun-dation height and duration. This suggests an effect of cross-shore flow velocity on their tolerance to inundation. The analysis of the measured stand characteristics revealed a negative effect of total flow velocity on all measured parameters of B. maritimus and thus confirmed our expectation that flow velocity is a decisive stressor which influences the growth of this species.
To gain a better understanding of the processes and habitat factors influencing the spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics in brackish marshes, I built a spatially explicit, mechanistic model applying a pattern-oriented modelling approach. A sensitivity analysis of the para-meters of this dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac suggests that rhizome growth is the key process for the lateral dynamics of brackish marshes. From the analysed habitat factors, P. australis patterns were mainly influenced by flow velocity. The competition with P. australis was of key importance for the belowground biomass of B. maritimus. Concerning vegetation dynamics, the model results emphasise that without the effect of flow velocity the B. maritimus vegetation belt would expand into the tidal flat at locations with present vegetation recession, suggesting that flow velocity is the main reason for vegetation recession at exposed locations.
Overall, the results of this thesis demonstrate that brackish marsh vegetation considerably contributes to flow reduction under average flow conditions and can hence be a valuable component of shore-protection schemes. At the same time, the distribution, growth and expansion of tidal marsh vegetation is substantially influenced by flow. Altogether, this thesis provides a clear step forward in understanding plant-habitat interactions in tidal marshes. Future research should integrate studies of vertical marsh accretion with research on the factors that control the lateral position of marshes.
A new sedimentary sequence from Lago di Venere on Pantelleria Island, located in the Strait of Sicily between Tunisia and Sicily was recovered. The lake is located in the coastal infra-Mediterranean vegetation belt at 2 m a.s.l. Pollen, charcoal and sedimentological analyses are used to explore linkages among vegetation, fire and climate at a decadal scale over the past 1200 years. A dry period from ad 800 to 1000 that corresponds to the Medieval Warm Period' (WMP) is inferred from sedimentological analysis. The high content of carbonate recorded in this period suggests a dry phase, when the ratio of evaporation/precipitation was high. During this period the island was dominated by thermophilous and drought-tolerant taxa, such as Quercus ilex, Olea, Pistacia and Juniperus. A marked shift in the sediment properties is recorded at ad 1000, when carbonate content became very low suggesting wetter conditions until ad 1850-1900. Broadly, this period coincides with the Little Ice Age' (LIA), which was characterized by wetter and colder conditions in Europe. During this time rather mesic conifers (i.e. Pinus pinaster), shrubs and herbs (e.g. Erica arborea and Selaginella denticulata) expanded, whereas more drought-adapted species (e.g. Q. ilex) declined. Charcoal data suggest enhanced fire activity during the LIA probably as a consequence of anthropogenic burning and/or more flammable fuel (e.g. resinous Pinus biomass). The last century was characterized by a shift to high carbonate content, indicating a change towards drier conditions, and re-expansion of Q. ilex and Olea. The post-LIA warming is in agreement with historical documents and meteorological time series. Vegetation dynamics were co-determined by agricultural activities on the island. Anthropogenic indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Sporormiella) reveal the importance of crops and grazing on the island. Our pollen data suggest that extensive logging caused the local extinction of deciduous Quercus pubescens around ad1750.
In this study, an in situ application for identifying neodymium (Nd) enriched surface materials that uses multitemporal hyperspectral images is presented (HySpex sensor). Because of the narrow shape and shallow absorption depth of the neodymium absorption feature, a method was developed for enhancing and extracting the necessary information for neodymium from image spectra, even under illumination conditions that are not optimal. For this purpose, the two following approaches were developed: (1) reducing noise and analyzing changing illumination conditions by averaging multitemporal image scenes and (2) enhancing the depth of the desired absorption band by deconvolving every image spectrum with a Gaussian curve while the rest of the spectrum remains unchanged (Richardson-Lucy deconvolution). To evaluate these findings, nine field samples from the Fen complex in Norway were analyzed using handheld X-ray fluorescence devices and by conducting detailed laboratory-based geochemical rare earth element determinations. The result is a qualitative outcrop map that highlights zones that are enriched in neodymium. To reduce the influences of non-optimal illumination, particularly at the studied site, a minimum of seven single acquisitions is required. Sharpening the neodymium absorption band allows for robust mapping, even at the outer zones of enrichment. From the geochemical investigations, we found that iron oxides decrease the applicability of the method. However, iron-related absorption bands can be used as secondary indicators for sulfidic ore zones that are mainly enriched with rare earth elements. In summary, we found that hyperspectral spectroscopy is a noninvasive, fast and cost-saving method for determining neodymium at outcrop surfaces
According to the classical plume hypothesis, mantle plumes are localized upwellings of hot, buoyant material in the Earth’s mantle. They have a typical mushroom shape, consisting of a large plume head, which is associated with the formation of voluminous flood basalts (a Large
Igneous Province) and a narrow plume tail, which generates a linear, age-progressive chain of volcanic edifices (a hotspot track) as the tectonic plate migrates over the relatively stationary plume. Both plume heads and tails reshape large areas of the Earth’s surface over many tens of millions of years.
However, not every plume has left an exemplary record that supports the classical hypothesis. The main objective of this thesis is therefore to study how specific hotspots have created the crustal thickness pattern attributed to their volcanic activities. Using regional geodynamic
models, the main chapters of this thesis address the challenge of deciphering the three individual (and increasingly complex) Réunion, Iceland, and Kerguelen hotspot histories, especially focussing on the interactions between the respective plume and nearby spreading ridges.
For this purpose, the mantle convection code ASPECT is used to set up three-dimensional numerical models, which consider the specific local surroundings of each plume by prescribing time-dependent boundary conditions for temperature and mantle flow. Combining reconstructed plate boundaries and plate motions, large-scale global flow velocities and an inhomogeneous lithosphere thickness distribution together with a dehydration rheology represents a novel setup for regional convection models.
The model results show the crustal thickness pattern produced by the plume, which is compared to present-day topographic structures, crustal thickness estimates and age determinations of volcanic provinces associated with hotspot activity. Altogether, the model results agree well
with surface observations. Moreover, the dynamic development of the plumes in the models provide explanations for the generation of smaller, yet characteristic volcanic features that were previously unexplained. Considering the present-day state of a model as a prediction for the
current temperature distribution in the mantle, it cannot only be compared to observations on the surface, but also to structures in the Earth’s interior as imaged by seismic tomography.
More precisely, in the case of the Réunion hotspot, the model demonstrates how the distinctive gap between the Maldives and Chagos is generated due to the combination of the ridge geometry and plume-ridge interaction. Further, the Rodrigues Ridge is formed as the surface expression
of a long-distance sublithospheric flow channel between the upwelling plume and the closest ridge segment, confirming the long-standing hypothesis of Morgan (1978) for the first time in a dynamic context. The Réunion plume has been studied in connection with the seismological
RHUM-RUM project, which has recently provided new seismic tomography images that yield an excellent match with the geodynamic model.
Regarding the Iceland plume, the numerical model shows how plume material may have accumulated in an east-west trending corridor of thin lithosphere across Greenland and resulted in simultaneous melt generation west and east of Greenland. This provides an explanation for the
extremely widespread volcanic material attributed to magma production of the Iceland hotspot and demonstrates that the model setup is also able to explain more complicated hotspot histories. The Iceland model results also agree well with newly derived seismic tomographic images.
The Kerguelen hotspot has an extremely complex history and previous studies concluded that the plume might be dismembered or influenced by solitary waves in its conduit to produce the reconstructed variable melt production rate. The geodynamic model, however, shows that a constant plume influx can result in a variable magma production rate if the plume interacts with nearby mid-ocean ridges. Moreover, the Ninetyeast Ridge in the model is created by on-ridge activities, while the Kerguelen plume was located beneath the Australian plate. This is also a contrast to earlier studies, which described the Ninetyeast Ridge as the result of the Indian plate passing over the plume. Furthermore, the Amsterdam-Saint Paul Plateau in the model is the result of plume material flowing from the upwelling toward the Southeast Indian Ridge, whereas previous geochemical studies attributed that volcanic province to a separate deep plume.
In summary, the three case studies presented in this thesis consistently highlight the importance of plume-ridge interaction in order to reconstruct the overall volcanic hotspot record as well as specific smaller features attributed to a certain hotspot. They also demonstrate that it is not necessary to attribute highly complicated properties to a specific plume in order to account for complex observations. Thus, this thesis contributes to the general understanding of plume dynamics and extends the very specific knowledge about the Réunion, Iceland, and Kerguelen mantle plumes.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.
In light of possible future restrictions on the use of fossil fuel, due to climate change obligations and continuous depletion of global fossil fuel reserves, the search for alternative renewable energy sources is expected to be an issue of great concern for policy stakeholders. This study assessed the feasibility of bioenergy production under relatively low-intensity conservative, eco-agricultural settings (as opposed to those produced under high-intensity, fossil fuel based industrialized agriculture). Estimates of the net energy gain (NEG) and the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) obtained from a life cycle inventory of the energy inputs and outputs involved reveal that the energy efficiency of bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could be as much as much as 448.5–488.3 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 5.4–5.9 for maize ethanol production systems, and as much as 155.0–283.9 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 14.7–22.4 for maize biogas production systems. This is substantially higher than for industrialized agriculture with a NEG of 2.8–52.5 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 1.2–1.7 for maize ethanol production systems, as well as a NEG of 59.3–188.7 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 2.2–10.2 for maize biogas production systems. Bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could therefore be an important source of energy with immense net benefits for local and regional end-users, provided a more efficient use of the co-products is ensured.
Climate or land use?
(2017)
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950–2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.