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The up to similar to4 km high southern Patagonian Andes form a pronounced topographic barrier to atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere westerlies, and cause one of the most drastic orographic rain shadows on earth. Geologic data imply that this climatic pattern has been established or significantly enhanced during Miocene surface uplift of this Andean segment. We report evidence for important climatic and ecologic changes in the eastern foreland of the Patagonian Andes that appear to be the result of this uplift. To provide constraints on Miocene plant ecosystems and precipitation in the eastern (leeward) foreland of the Patagonian Andes, we determined carbon and oxygen isotope values of pedogenic carbonate nodules from a similar to500 m thick section of the continental Santa Cruz Formation. The age of these deposits was constrained by Ar/Ar dating of intercalated tuffs, which range from similar to22 to 14 Ma. At similar to16.5 Ma, the delta(13)C values increase by similar to3parts per thousand, the delta(18)O values decrease by >2parts per thousand, and the scatter in the oxygen isotope data increases significantly. We interpret these changes as the consequence of >1 km surface uplift in this Andean segment (from the delta(18)O values), and increased aridity to its east (from the delta(13)C values and the increased scatter in the delta(18)O values). Sediments overlying the Santa Cruz Formation are very limited in extent and volume, and dominated by coarse conglomerates related to Pleistocene and older glaciations. It thus seems that, by similar to14 Ma, deposition in the eastern foreland of the Southern Patagonian Andes had essentially ceased as the result of rain shadow formation. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Composite ground-motion models and logic trees: Methodology, sensitivities, and uncertainties
(2005)
Logic trees have become a popular tool in seismic hazard studies. Commonly, the models corresponding to the end branches of the complete logic tree in a probabalistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are treated separately until the final calculation of the set of hazard curves. This comes at the price that information regarding sensitivities and uncertainties in the ground-motion sections of the logic tree are only obtainable after disaggregation. Furthermore, from this end-branch model perspective even the designers of the logic tree cannot directly tell what ground-motion scenarios most likely would result from their logic trees for a given earthquake at a particular distance, nor how uncertain these scenarios might be or how they would be affected by the choices of the hazard analyst. On the other hand, all this information is already implicitly present in the logic tree. Therefore, with the ground-motion perspective that we propose in the present article, we treat the ground-motion sections of a complete logic tree for seismic hazard as a single composite model representing the complete state-of-knowledge-and-belief of a particular analyst on ground motion in a particular target region. We implement this view by resampling the ground-motion models represented in the ground-motion sections of the logic tree by Monte Carlo simulation (separately for the median values and the sigma values) and then recombining the sets of simulated values in proportion to their logic-tree branch weights. The quantiles of this resampled composite model provide the hazard analyst and the decision maker with a simple, clear, and quantitative representation of the overall physical meaning of the ground-motion section of a logic tree and the accompanying epistemic uncertainty. Quantiles of the composite model also provide an easy way to analyze the sensitivities and uncertainties related to a given logic-tree model. We illustrate this for a composite ground- motion model for central Europe. Further potential fields of applications are seen wherever individual best estimates of ground motion have to be derived from a set of candidate models, for example, for hazard rnaps, sensitivity studies, or for modeling scenario earthquakes
This study concerns the Quantitative Phase Analysis (QPA) of historical bricks coming from the complex of the Great Palace of the Byzantine Emperors in Istanbul. The studied samples are characterised by different chemical compositions (low and high calcium content), variable firing temperatures and different amounts of soluble salts as damage products. In the low-Ca samples, the decrease of the phyllosilicate content (from 23.4 to 6.9 wt%) is associated to the increase of the amorphous fraction (from 24 to 48%). This clear negative correlation between the phyllosilicate content and the amorphous fraction indicates that in low-Ca systems vitrification processes are overwhelming with respect to nucleation and recrystallisation processes. By contrast, high-Ca samples present newly formed Ca(Mg) silicates (diopside from 5.7 to 27.2%; anorthite from 1.4 to 8.7%) and aluminium silicates (gehlenite only in two samples, 6.2 and 7.7%) associated to the decrease of quartz (from 27.7 to 11.5%), phyllosilicate (from 6.5% until complete break down) and amorphous (from 30 to 14%) phase fractions. These findings support the role played by the CaO(MgO) content deriving from carbonates decomposition which reacts with Al2O3 and SiO2 oxides from dehydroxylated clay minerals and quartz grains. The above results have been obtained by X-ray powder diffraction data using the combined Rietveld refinement - internal standard method in order to estimate both the crystalline and the amorphous phase fractions. In addition, the coexistence of two distinct plagioclases in high-Ca samples was modelled as follows: a primary albite, which tends to incorporate Ca during the firing process as demonstrated by the increasing of gamma crystallographic angle, and a newly formed anorthite. Finally, by difference between the X-ray fluorescence data and the chemical compositions inferred by QPA, it proved possible to roughly estimate the residual chemical composition attributable to the amorphous fraction. On the basis of our data, we believe that Rietveld refinement combined with the internal standard method represent a powerful tool to better characterise complex polycrystalline and amorphous mixture as in the case of historical bricks
The PEGASOS project was a major international seismic hazard study, one of the largest ever conducted anywhere in the world, to assess seismic hazard at four nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland. Before the report of this project has become publicly available, a paper attacking both methodology and results has appeared. Since the general scientific readership may have difficulty in assessing this attack in the absence of the report being attacked, we supply a response in the present paper. The bulk of the attack, besides some misconceived arguments about the role of uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis, is carried by some exercises that purport to be validation exercises. In practice, they are no such thing; they are merely independent sets of hazard calculations based on varying assumptions and procedures, often rather questionable, which come up with various different answers which have no particular significance. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Microseismic data from observatories in Europe, which have been continuously recorded since about 100 years, contain information on the wave-climate in the North Atlantic. They can potentially be used as additional constraints in high-resolution temporal and spatial reconstructions of the storminess and oceanic waveheights in the past. To resolve spatial patterns data from observatories in different regions are needed. While previous recent studies analyzed only few observatory archives and relatively short time ranges, this is a first attempt to process the whole available data archive from different observatories. We correct and compare smoothed microseismic data from different stations and discuss their correlation and possible use for studies of storminess variability. Microseismic amplitudes at four seismic stations in northern Europe show amplitude peaks in 1920 and 1925, a slow decline in amplitudes till the middle of the 1930's followed by a steady increase of amplitudes till about 1990. From 1990 on microseismic amplitudes decrease. We find a good correlation between the average surface wind velocity in the North Atlantic and microseismic amplitudes at inland stations far away from the coast. Coastal stations are more influenced by local swell and are thus potentially useful to recover regional changes in wind and ocean wavefields with time. The study demonstrates that the analysis of microseismic has the potential to assess climate changes during the last 100 years
Annite and Fe-rich siderophyllite constitute the rock-forming micas in the late-Variscan composite granite pluton of Konigshain, Lausitz, Germany. This multiphase pluton is composed of three fractionated, but not chemically specialized monzogranite types, which contain lithophile elements such as Li, Rb, Cs, Sn, and F in average quantities. Abundant miarolitic pegmatites of the NYF family with a broad diversity of rare minerals occur in the apical part of the pluton. These pegmatitic cavities locally contain di- and trioctabedral micas as well as cation-deficient micas. Trioctahedral micas comprise F-rich manganoan lithian siderophyllite to manganoan zinnwaldite, zinnwaldite, and minor lepidolite. The formula [calculated on the basis of 22 anion valencies and 2 (F + OH + Cl)] of the most Mn-rich siderophyllite is (K0.85Rb0.08Na0.04)(0.97)(Al0.99Li0.91Fe0.51Mn0.42Ti0.01Zn0.01)(2.85) (Si3.21Al0.79)(4)O- 10(F1.80OH0.19Cl0.01)(2). This mica constitutes one of the most Mn-rich siderophyllite compositions reported to date. The lithium micas poorer in Mn are distinguished by elevated concentrations of Rb (up to 2.5 wt % Rb2O), CS (UP to 1.2 wt % Cs2O), and F (up to 9.6 wt %). This fluorine content is probably consistent with the maximum possible F occupation of 2 of the (F,OH,Cl)-site. The structural formula of the most Li-rich lepidolite is (K0.83Rb0.07Cs0.03)(0.93) (Li1.62Al1.00Fe0.38)(3.00)(Si3.62Al0.38)(4) O-10(F1.91OH0.09)(2). During hydrothermal alteration, lepidolite and zinnwaldite became partially depleted in K, Li, Rb, Cs, and F and gradually transformed into cation-deficient micas (lithian phengite to illite of phengitic affinity)
The "Bohemians" of New Zealand - an ethnic group? In 1982 a small group of New Zealanders established contacts with the region of origin of their about 200 German-speaking ancestors who had emigrated from Bohemia for economic reasons in the 1860s and 1870s. They had all come from about twenty villages situated west of plzen and founded a rural settlement and participated in the foundation of a second one in New Zealand. Since World War I there had been no further contacts between the emigrants and their descendants on the one hand and their relatives in Bohemia on the other hand. For two reasons new contacts were established after such a long time: (1) the back-to the-roots-movement had spread to New Zealand from the USA, Canada and Australia, and (2) the status of cultural diversity keeps being enhanced in New Zealand since about 1970. These processes also influenced those people in New Zealand who call themselves "Bohemians" because of their ancestors' region of origin. Their total number is estimated at 10, 000 to 15, 000 at present. Up to now hardly any attention was attached to them in New Zealand by academic research and/or the general public. This paper discusses the history and today's situation of the former immigrants' community as well as the New Zealand "Bohemians " in general, raising the questions to what extent they can be defined as an ethnic group now and whether they will retain their status as a specific group in future
Cretaceous magmatism in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia is related to lithospheric stretching during the late Early-early Late Cretaceous. The small amount of preserved igneous material is represented by small mafic intrusions. This study focuses on three localities, from east to west: Pajarito, Pacho, and Caceres. The investigated igneous bodies are classified as gabbros, pyroxene-hornblende-gabbros, and pyroxene-hornblendites mainly composed of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, and/or amphibole. Although their timing of emplacement and geodynamic position seem similar, significant differences in their geochemical and petrological characteristics rule out simple models of melt genesis. Clinopyroxene and bulk chemistry indicate increasing alkalinity from west to east. Trace element concentrations point to melt sources that range from a slightly enriched mantle in the west to a highly enriched one in the east. In addition, the data reflect a decreasing degree of partial melting from west to east and the decreasing importance of residual garnet in the mantle source. Probable mantle metasomatism in the source region by slab-derived fluids, as displayed by high Ba/Nb and moderate Sr-n/P-n, is clear in the west and very slight to the east. Mantle metasomatism and melt generation probably are processes of different epochs. The lack of large volumes of igneous rocks and the absence of tectonically controlled unconformities in the investigated areas indicate that a mantle plume did not affect the regional tectonics and magmatism. We favor a model of rift-related magmatism in which melt composition is modified from east to west from a highly enriched to a less enriched mantle region, the latter metasomatized by fluids derived from an older subduction phase. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Early Ilerdian (Early Eocene, Shallow Benthic Zones 5 and 6) carbonate systems of the Pyrenees shelf were deposited after a time of severe climatic ('Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, PETM') and phylogenetic ('Larger Foraminifer Turnover') changes. They reflect the radiation of nummulitid, alveolinid, and orbitolitid larger foraminifera after remarkable biotic changes at the end of the Paleocene, and announce their subsequent flourishing in the Middle Eocene. A paleoenvironmental model for tropical carbonate environments of this particular time interval is provided herein. During the Early Ilerdian, the inner and middle ramp deposits from Minerve, Campo and Serraduy revealed the end-member of a tropical carbonate factory with carbonate production dominated by the end-members of biotically (photo-autotrophic skeletal) controlled and biotically induced carbonate precipitation. Inner platform environments are dominated by alveolinids and in part by orbitolitids, middle platform environments are dominated by nummulitids. Corals are present, but they do not form reefs, which is a typical feature for the Eocene. Nummulite shoal complexes, which are well-known from the Middle Eocene are also absent during the studied Early Ilerdian interval, which may reflect the early evolutionary stage of this group
In silicate glasses and melts, water acts according to two main processes. First, it can be dissolved in high temperature/high pressure melts. Second, it constitutes a weathering agent on the glass surface. A number of in-situ x- ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) studies for Fe, Ni, Zr, Th and U show that the more charged cations (Zr, Nb, Mo, Ta, Sn, Th and U) are little affected by the presence of dissolved water in the melt. In contrast, divalent iron and nickel are highly sensitive to the presence of water, which enhance nucleation processes, for example, of phyllosilicates at the angstrom-scale. Such information provides additional constraints on the role of water deep in the Earth, particularly in magmatology. By contrast, the weathering of glass surfaces by water can be studied from a durability perspective. Experimental weathering experiments Of nuclear waste glasses performed in the laboratory show a variety of surface enrichments (carbon, chlorine, alkalis, iron) after exposure to atmospheric fluids and moisture. Mn-, and Fe-surface enrichments of analogous glasses of the XIVth century are related to the formation of Mn and Fe oxy/ hydroxides on the surface. The impact on the glass darkening is considered in terms of urban pollution and mass tourism
Fe in magma : an overview
(2005)
The strong influence of physical conditions during magma formation on Fe equilibria offers a large variety of possibilities to deduce these conditions from Fe-bearing phases and phase assemblages found in magmatic rocks. Conditions of magma genesis and their evolution are of major interest for the understanding of volcanic eruptions. A brief overview on the most common methods used is given together with potential problems and limitations. Fe equilibria are not only sensitive to changes in intensive parameters (especially T and fO(2)) and extensive parameters like composition also have major effects, so that direct application of experimentally calibrated equilibria to natural systems is not always possible. Best estimates for pre-eruptive conditions are certainly achieved by studies that relate field observations directly to experimental observations for the composition of interest using as many constraints as possible (phase stability relations, Fe-Ti oxides, Fe partitioning between phases, Fe oxidation state in glass etc.). Local structural environment of Fe in silicate melts is an important parameter that is needed to understand the relationship between melt transport properties and melt structure. Assignment of Fe co-ordination and its relationship to the oxidation state seems not to be straightforward. In addition, there is considerable evidence that the co- ordination of Fe in glass differs from that in the melt, which has to be taken into account when linking melt structure to physical properties of silicate melts at T and P.
Logic trees are widely used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis as a tool to capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with the seismogenic sources and the ground-motion prediction models used in estimating the hazard. Combining two or more ground-motion relations within a logic tree will generally require several conversions to be made, because there are several definitions available for both the predicted ground-motion parameters and the explanatory parameters within the predictive ground-motion relations. Procedures for making conversions for each of these factors are presented, using a suite of predictive equations in current use for illustration. The sensitivity of the resulting ground-motion models to these conversions is shown to be pronounced for some of the parameters, especially the measure of source-to-site distance, highlighting the need to take into account any incompatibilities among the selected equations. Procedures are also presented for assigning weights to the branches in the ground-motion section of the logic tree in a transparent fashion, considering both intrinsic merits of the individual equations and their degree of applicability to the particular application
We test the capability of broadband arrays at teleseismic distances to image the spatio-temporal characteristics of the seismic energy release during the Dec 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake at early observation times. Using a non-plane-wave array location technique previously reported values for rupture length (about 1150 km), duration (about 480 s), and average rupture velocity (2.4-2.7 km/s) are confirmed. Three dominant energy releases are identified: one near the hypocenter, a second at 6 degrees N94 degrees E about 130 s later and a third one after 300 s at 9 degrees N92-93 degrees E. The spatio-temporal distribution of the radiated seismic energy in the source region is calculated from the stacked broadband recordings of two arrays in Germany and Japan and results in rough estimates of the total seismic energy of 0.55.10(18) Nm (GRSN) and 1.53.10(18) Nm (FNET) respectively. Changes in the relative ratio of energy as function of spatio-temporal location indicate a rotation of the focal mechanism during the rupture process
The structure and alterations of subducted oceanic lithosphere ( e. g., thickness and seismic velocity of oceanic crust) can be obtained by analyzing guided seismic waves generated by earthquakes within the slab (Wadati- Benioff zone). In northern Chile prominent secondary phases from intermediate-depth seismicity, observed in the forearc region can be interpreted as guided waves. For the observation of guided waves it is usually required to have stations close to the wave guide, a fact which is not directly given for forearc stations in subduction zone environments. With the help of finite difference simulations we model the decoupling mechanism of guided waves at the contact between the descending oceanic plate and the upper plate crust where the wave guide is opened due to the equalization of seismic velocities. Provided that suited stations are available, this mechanism allows for the use of intermediate depth seismicity to study the shallow subduction zone structure ( <= 100 km depth)
Basement-cored uplift provinces are often characterized by high-angle reverse faulting along preexisting crustal heterogeneities, which may greatly affect the mechanics of deformation and the coupling between erosion and orogenic structure. Herein we construct a coupled deformation-erosion model to understand the mechanics and erosion of mountain belts in which the spatial distribution of deformation is largely influenced by the presence of preexisting high-angle faults. In this case, deformation is accommodated along, and topography is built above, these structures. This topographic loading leads to increasing lithostatic stresses beneath these regions. As a result, active deformation may migrate to frictionally stronger structures in adjacent regions where lithostatic loading is lower. The migration of deformation to such nearby structures depends on the Hubbert-Rubey pore fluid pressure ratio of the crust (lambda), the orientations of the frictionally weaker and stronger preexisting faults (beta(1) and beta(2), respectively), the friction coefficients (mu(b1) and mu(b2)) and Hubbert-Rubey fluid-pressure ratios (lambda(b1) and lambda(b2)) of these faults, and the surface slope of the topography above the frictionally weaker structure (alpha), assuming zero surface slope above the frictionally stronger structure. In general, we found that for a given alpha and beta(1), as mu(b1) increases lambda=lambda(b1)=lambda(b2) increases, and beta(2) decreases, the value of mu(b2) required to force deformation to migrate increases. However, as erosional processes lead to decreasing surface slopes, deformation will be inhibited from migrating to frictionally stronger structures in adjacent regions. Our model results may help to explain some aspects of the deformation observed and the possible correlation between precipitation and the migration of deformation within these tectonic provinces
Stable isotope paleoaltimetry makes use of systematic trends in the distribution and isotopic composition of modern precipitation with climate and topography, and of the potential to estimate the isotopic composition of paleoprecipitation from authigenic (in-situ formed) minerals. To illustrate the usefulness as well as potential limitations of this method, we review (1) processes controlling the isotopic composition of modem precipitation, (2) stable isotope data from modern precipitation across regions of high topography, and (3) stable isotope data from authigenic minerals that have been used to infer paleotopography. From this we conclude that stable isotope studies of authigenic minerals can permit useful inferences on paleotopography, with uncertainties that critically depend on a detailed understanding of local- to global-scale paleoclimate during the time interval of interest
Geological Atlas of Africa
(2005)
This is the first attempt to summarize the geology of Africa by presenting it in an atlas and to synthesize the stratigraphy, tectonics, economic geology, geohazards and geosites of each country and territory of the continent. Furthermore, the digitized geological maps are correlated and harmonized according to the current stratigraphic timetable. The atlas aims to contribute to capacity building in African Earth Sciences and to initiate research and economic opportunities by providing a database of basic geological background information. (Springer)
Subduction factory : 1. Theoretical mineralogy, densities, seismic wave speeds, and H2O contents
(2005)
Analysis of contemporary and past gully erosion and infilling processes allowed to reconstruct the long-term evolution of a permanent gully system under cropland. An active and a buried gully under cropland were investigated. The recent sediment deposits within the active gully, adjacent to the buried gully, showed that the recent gully was filling in at a mean rate of 6.4 cm a(-1). In the buried gully, several erosion and deposition phases could be identified and the type of deposited sediments revealed a complex infilling history. Charcoal, pottery and brick fragments of different sizes were found at all depths of the gully infilling. Their age indicates that the first gully incised after the midst of the 17th century, most probably in the second half of the 18th century or the early 19th century. Gully morphology and analogy with the processes in the recent gully indicate that the buried gully filled in rapidly. Overall, five cycles of cut and fill occurred in 350 years or less and four cycles even within little less than a few decades, indicating that gully development and infilling under cropland can be very rapid processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved
Lake sediments in 10 Ethiopian, Kenyan, and Tanzanian rift basins suggest that there were three humid periods at 2.7 to 2.5 million years ago (Ma), 1.9 to 1.7 Ma, and 1.1 to 0.9 Ma, superimposed on the longer-term aridification of East Africa. These humid periods correlate with increased aridity in northwest and northeast Africa and with substantial global climate transitions. These episodes could have had important impacts on the speciation and dispersal of mammals and hominins, because a number of key events, such as the origin of the genus Homo and the evolution of the species Homo erectus, took place in this region during that time.
Permian basins
(2005)
A localized dehydration zone, Sondrum stone quarry, Halmstad, SW Sweden, consists of a central, 1 m wide granitic pegmatoid dyke, on either side of which extends a 2.5-3 m wide dehydration zone (650-700 degrees C; 800 MPa; orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene-biotite-amphibole-garnet) overprinting a local migmatized granitic gneiss (amphibole-biotite- garnet). Whole-rock chemistry indicates that dehydration of the granitic gneiss was predominantly isochemical. Exceptions include [Y + heavy rare earth elements (HREE)], Ba, Sr, and F, which are markedly depleted throughout the dehydration zone. Systematic trends in the silicate and fluorapatite mineral chemistry across the dehydration zone include depletion in Fe, (Y + HREE), Na, K, F, and Cl, and enrichment in Mg, Mn, Ca, and Ti. Fluid inclusion chemistry is similar in all three zones and indicates the presence of a fluid containing CO2, NaCl, and H2O components. Water activities in the dehydration zone average 0.36, or XH2O = 0.25. All lines of evidence suggest that the formation of the dehydration zone was due to advective transport of a CO2-rich fluid with a minor NaCl brine component originating from a tectonic fracture. Fluid infiltration resulted in the localized partial breakdown of biotite and amphiboles to pyroxenes releasing Ti and Ca, which were partitioned into the remaining biotite and amphibole, as well as uniform depletion in (Y + HREE), Ba, Sr, Cl, and F. At some later stage, H2O-rich fluids (H2O activity > 0.8) gave rise to localized partial melting and the probable injection of a granitic melt into the tectonic fracture, which resulted in the biotite and amphibole recording a diffusion profile for F across the dehydration zone into the granitic gneiss as well as a diffusion profile in Fe, Mn, and Mg for all Fe-Mg silicate minerals within 100 cm of the pegmatoid dyke
A confocal set-up is presented that improves micro-XRF and XAFS experiment with high-pressure e diamond-anvil cells (DACs) In this experiment a probing volume is defined by the focus of the incoming synchrotron radiation beam and that of a polycapillary X-ray half-lens with a very long working distance, which is placed in front of the fluorescence detector This set-up enhances the quality of the fluorescence and XAFS spectra, and thus the sensitivity for detecting elements at low concentrations. It efficiently suppresses signal from outside the sample chamber, which stems from elastic and inelastic scattering of the incoming beam by the diamond anvils as well as from excitation of fluorescence from the body of the DAC
To balance the steady decrease of conventional hydrocarbon resources, increased utilization of unconventional and new energy resources, such as shale gas and geothermal energy, is required. Also, the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide is being considered as a technology that may temporarily mitigate the effects of CO2 emission. Sites suitable for shale gas production, geothermal exploration, or CO2 sequestration are commonly characterized by electrical resistivities distinctly different from those of the surrounding rocks. Therefore, electromagnetic methods can be viable tools to help identify target sites suitable for exploration, and to monitor reservoirs during energy production or CO2 injection. Among the wide variety of electromagnetic methods available, controlled-source magnetotelluric (CSMT) may be particularly suitable because of (i) its ability to resolve both electrically resistive and conductive structures, (ii) controlled sources offering noise control and thus facilitating surveys in populated regions, and (iii) the potential of penetration throughout the depth range accessible by drilling. Nevertheless, CSMT has not yet been widely employed because of logistical challenges of field operations and the requirement of complex and highly computer-intensive data processing. With these difficulties gradually being mitigated by recent technological developments, CSMT may now be reconsidered as an exploration tool. Here, we investigate by 1D and 3D numerical simulations the feasibility of detecting gas shales and identifying sites eligible for geothermal exploration or CO2 sequestration from CSMT data. We consider surface-to-surface, borehole-to-surface, and cross-hole configurations of the sources and receivers. Results and conclusions on the detectability of the targets of interest are presented for various exploration and monitoring scenarios, which are roughly representative of the geological setting of the North German Basin.
Characterization of polarization attributes of seismic waves using continuous wavelet transforms
(2006)
Complex-trace analysis is the method of choice for analyzing polarized data. Because particle motion can be represented by instantaneous attributes that show distinct features for waves of different polarization characteristics, it can be used to separate and characterize these waves. Traditional methods of complex-trace analysis only give the instantaneous attributes as a function of time or frequency. However. for transient wave types or seismic events that overlap in time, an estimate of the polarization parameters requires analysis of the time-frequency dependence of these attributes. We propose a method to map instantaneous polarization attributes of seismic signals in the wavelet domain and explicitly relate these attributes with the wavelet-transform coefficients of the analyzed signal. We compare our method with traditional complex-trace analysis using numerical examples. An advantage of our method is its possibility of performing the complete wave-mode separation/ filtering process in the wavelet domain and its ability to provide the frequency dependence of ellipticity, which contains important information on the subsurface structure. Furthermore, using 2-C synthetic and real seismic shot gathers, we show how to use the method to separate different wave types and identify zones of interfering wave modes
What is the most appropriate sampling scheme to estimate event-based average throughfall? A satisfactory answer to this seemingly simple question has yet to be found, a failure which we attribute to previous efforts' dependence on empirical studies. Here we try to answer this question by simulating stochastic throughfall fields based on parameters for statistical models of large monitoring data sets. We subsequently sampled these fields with different sampling designs and variable sample supports. We evaluated the performance of a particular sampling scheme with respect to the uncertainty of possible estimated means of throughfall volumes. Even for a relative error limit of 20%, an impractically large number of small, funnel-type collectors would be required to estimate mean throughfall, particularly for small events. While stratification of the target area is not superior to simple random sampling, cluster random sampling involves the risk of being less efficient. A larger sample support, e.g., the use of trough-type collectors, considerably reduces the necessary sample sizes and eliminates the sensitivity of the mean to outliers. Since the gain in time associated with the manual handling of troughs versus funnels depends on the local precipitation regime, the employment of automatically recording clusters of long troughs emerges as the most promising sampling scheme. Even so, a relative error of less than 5% appears out of reach for throughfall under heterogeneous canopies. We therefore suspect a considerable uncertainty of input parameters for interception models derived from measured throughfall, in particular, for those requiring data of small throughfall events.
In an attempt to map the shallow geometry of the Maleme Fault Zone (North Island, New Zealand) and estimate vertical displacements of selected fault strands, we have collected 2D and 3D georadar data using 100 MHz antennae. The 2D data consisted of three parallel georadar lines recorded perpendicular to the axis of the well-defined graben of the Maleme Fault Zone. These similar to 160 in long lines, which were 7.5 m apart, crossed several fault strands on either side of the graben axis. The processed georadar sections revealed two prominent parallel reflections that originated from the boundaries of Late Pleistocene lacustrine and tephra deposits. Distinct vertical offsets of these reflections allowed us to estimate displacernents at individual fault strands across the entire inner graben. The total displacements represented by these offsets was similar to 10-20% greater than that inferred from geomorphological studies, thus demonstrating the limitations of surface observations for determining cumulative fault movements. The 3D georadar data set, recorded across an area of similar to 70x similar to 20 in to one side of the graben axis, provided key details on individual fault strands. For the 3D visualization of fault-related structures, various spatial attribute analyses based on the cosine of the instantaneous phase proved to be useful
Metabasites were sampled from rock series of the subducted margin of the Indian Plate, the so-called Higher Himalayan Crystalline, in the Upper Kaghan Valley, Pakistan. These vary from corona dolerites, cropping out around Saif- ul-Muluk in the south, to coesite-eclogite close to the suture zone against rocks of the Kohistan arc in the north. Bulk rock major- and trace-element chemistry reveals essentially a single protolith as the source for five different eclogite types, which differ in fabric, modal mineralogy as well as in mineral chemistry. The study of newly-collected samples reveals coesite (confirmed by in situ Raman spectroscopy) in both garnet and omphacite. All eclogites show growth of amphiboles during exhumation. Within some coesite-bearing eclogites the presence of glaucophane cores to barroisite is noted whereas in most samples porphyroblastic sodic-calcic amphiboles are rimmed by more aluminous calcic amphibole (pargasite, tschermakite, and edenite). Eclogite facies rutile is replaced by ilmenite which itself is commonly surrounded by titanite. In addition, some eclogite bodies show leucocratic segregations containing phengite, quartz, zoisite and/or kyanite. The important implication is that the complex exhumation path shows stages of initial cooling during decompression (formation of glaucophane) followed by reheating: a very similar situation to that reported for the coesite-bearing eclogite series of the Tso Morari massif, India, 450 km to the south-east.
Simulation of spatial sensor characteristics in the context of the EnMAP Hyperspectral mission
(2010)
The simulation of remote sensing images is a valuable tool for defining future Earth observation systems, optimizing instrument parameters, and developing and validating data-processing algorithms. A scene simulator for optical Earth observation data has been developed within the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) hyperspectral mission. It produces EnMAP-like data following a sequential processing approach consisting of five independent modules referred to as reflectance, atmospheric, spatial, spectral, and radiometric modules. From a modeling viewpoint, the spatial module is the most complex. The spatial simulation process considers the satellite-target geometry, which is adapted to the EnMAP orbit and operating characteristics, the instrument spatial response, and the sources of spatial nonuniformity (keystone, telescope distortion and smile, and detector coregistration). The spatial module of the EnMAP scene simulator is presented in this paper. The EnMAP spatial and geometric characteristics will be described, the simulation methodology will be presented in detail, and the capability of the EnMAP simulator will be shown by illustrative examples.
Map form information on forest biomass is required for estimating bioenergy potentials and monitoring carbon stocks. In Finland, the growing stock of forests is monitored using multi-source forest inventory, where variables are estimated in the form of thematic maps and area statistics by combining information of field measurements, satellite images and other digital map data. In this study, we used the multi-source forest inventory methodology for estimating forest biomass characteristics. The biomass variables were estimated for national forest inventory field plots on the basis of measured tree variables. The plot-level biomass estimates were used as reference data for satellite image interpretation. The estimates produced by satellite image interpretation were tested by cross-validation. The results indicate that the method for producing biomass maps on the basis of biomass models and satellite image interpretation is operationally feasible. Furthermore, the accuracy of the estimates of biomass variables is similar or even higher than that of traditional growing stock volume estimates. The technique presented here can be applied, for example, in estimating biomass resources or in the inventory of greenhouse gases.
The deterministic calculation of earthquake scenarios using complete waveform modelling plays an increasingly important role in estimating shaking hazard in seismically active regions. Here we apply 3-D numerical modelling of seismic wave propagation to M 6+ earthquake scenarios in the area of the Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the seismically most active regions in central Europe. Using a 3-D basin model derived from geology, borehole information and seismic experiments, we aim at demonstrating the strong dependence of ground shaking on hypocentre location and basin structure. The simulations are carried out up to frequencies of ca. 1 Hz. As expected, the basin structure leads to strong lateral variations in peak ground motion, amplification and shaking duration. Depending on source-basin-receiver geometry, the effects correlate with basin depth and the slope of the basin flanks; yet, the basin also affects peak ground motion and estimated shaking hazard thereof outside the basin. Comparison with measured seismograms for one of the earthquakes shows that some of the main characteristics of the wave motion are reproduced. Cumulating the derived seismic intensities from the three modelled earthquake scenarios leads to a predominantly basin correlated intensity distribution for our study area
Two types of electrical conductivity sensors were evaluated to prospect circular ditches surrounding former Bronze Age burial mounds, complementing aerial photography. The first sensor was based on the electrical resistivity (ER) method, while the second sensor was based on frequency-domain electromagnetic induction (FDEM). Both sensors were designed with multiple receivers, which measure several depth sensitivities simultaneously. First, the sensors were tested on an experimental site where a rectangular structure with limited dimensions was dug in a sandy soil. The structure appeared as a higher conductivity anomaly in the low-conductivity sand. Then, both methods were applied on two Bronze Age sites with different soil properties, which were discovered by aerial photography. The first site, in a sandy soil, gave only very weak anomalies. Soil augering revealed that the ditch filling consisted of the same sandy material as the surrounding, therefore this filling was not able to cause a high-conductivity contrast. Due to its lower sensitivity to noise in the low-conductive range, the ER-sensor produced a more pronounced anomaly than the FDEM-sensor. The second site was located on top of a ridge with a shallow substrate of Tertiary, coastal sediments. The ditch was very clearly visible on the sensor maps as a conductive low. At this location, the soil augering revealed that the ditch was dug through an alternating clay-sand layer and subsequently filled up with silty material from the topsoil. Overall, the shallow receiver separation produced anomalies that were both stronger and that corresponded better to the geometry of the ditches. The other receiver separations provided more information on the natural soil layering, and in the case of the ER-array they could be used to obtain a cross-section of the actual electrical conductivity with 2-D inversion modelling. The results of this study proofed that conductivity sensors can detect Bronze Age ditches, with varying contrast depending on the soil geomorphology. Moreover, the sensor maps combined with soil observations by coring provided insight in the environmental conditions that influence the contrast of the anomalies seen on the aerial photographs and the sensor maps.
The strongly peraluminous and P-rich, protolithionite and zinnwaldite leucogranites from Podlesi, western Krusne Hory Mts., Czech Republic, contain accessory zircon with extraordinary enrichment of several elements, which constitute trace elements in common zircon. Elements showing a not yet reported anomalous enrichment include P (up to 20.2 wt.% P2O5; equivalent to 0.60 apfu, formula calculated on the basis of 4 oxygen atoms), Bi (up to 9.0 wt.% Bi2O3; 0.086 apfu), Nb (up to 6.7 wt.% Nb2O5, 0.12 apfu), Sc (up to 3.45 wt.% Sc2O3; 0.10 apfu), U (up to 14.8 wt.% UO2; 0.12 apfu) and F (up to 3.81 wt.% F; 0.42 apfu). Strong enrichment of P preferentially involved the berlinite-type substitution (2 Si4+ double left right arrow P5+ + Al3+) implying that significant Al may enter the Si position in zircon. Incorporation of other exotic elements is primarily governed by the xenotime (Si4++Zr4+ double left right arrow P5++Y3+), pretulite (Sc3++P5+ double left right arrow Zr4++Si4+), brabantite-type (Ca2++(U, Th)(4+)+2P(5+) double left right arrow 2Zr(4+)+2Si(4+)), and ximengite-type (Bi3++P5+double left right arrow Zr4++Si4+) substitution reactions. One part of the anomalous zircons formed late-magmatically, from a strongly peraluminous, P-F-U-rich hydrous residual melt that gave rise to the zinnwaldite granite. Interaction with aggressive residual fluids and metamictization have further aided in element enrichment or depletion, particularly in altered parts of zircon contained in the protolithionite granite. Most of the zircon from F-rich greisens have a composition close to endmember ZrSiO4 and are chemically distinct from zircon in its granite parent. This discrepancy implies that at Podlesi, granitic zircon became unstable and completely dissolved during greisenization. Part of the mobilized elements was reprecipitated in newly grown, hydrothermal zircon.
The correlation of deformation fabrics and metamorphic reactions with geochronologic data of UHP metamorphic rocks demonstrate that the multistage subduction and exhumation history of the Central Dabie Complex requires rapid subduction and rapid initial exhumation. Moreover, these data show that volume diffusion is not the major resetting mechanism of radiogenic isotope systems. Thus, our age data do not simply reflect a thermal/cooling history. In the investigated section, the maximum age for UHP is given by the 244 +/- 3 Ma (2 sigma) U-Pb age of a pre-UHP titanite phenocryst that survived UHP metamorphism and subsequent tectonometamorphic events. A minimum age for UHP is set by the 238 +/- 1 Ma (2 sigma) U-238-Pb-206 mineral isochron age of titanite and cogenetic epidote. These minerals formed from local partial melts during ascent and their age suggests fast exhumation and emplacement in the middle crust. In the period of ca. 238-218 Ma, the UHP terrain records HT metamorphism, local partial melting, and extensive pervasive strain below the eclogite (jd+grt) stability field. Exhumation was polyphase with a first phase of fast exhumation, succeeded by episodes of HT metamorphism and concomitant deformation at deep/mid crustal level between 238 and 218 Ma. Slow exhumation related to the final emplacement of tectonic units along greenschist facies shear zones did not cease before ca. 209-204 Ma. The resetting and homogenization of radiogenic isotope systems were aided by dissolution precipitation creep, which was the dominant deformation mechanism in quartz-feldspar rocks, in combination with fluid influx. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Intramontane sedimentary basins along the margin of continental plateaus often preserve strata that contain fundamental information regarding the pattern of orogenic growth. The sedimentary record of the elastic Miocene-Pliocene sequence deposited in the Fiambala Basin, at the southern margin of the Puna Plateau (NW Argentina), documents the late Miocene paleodrainage evolution from headwaters to the west, towards headwaters in the ranges that constitute the border of the Puna Plateau to the north. Apatite Fission track (AFT) thermochronology of sedimentary and basement rocks show that the southern Puna Plateau was the source for the youngest, middle Miocene, detrital population detected in late Miocene rocks; and that the margin of the Puna Plateau expressed a high relief, possibly similar to or higher than at present, by late Miocene time. Cooling ages obtained from basement rocks at the southern Puna margin suggest that exhumation started in the Oligocene and continued until the middle Miocene. We interpret the basin reorganization and the creation of a high relief plateau margin to be the direct response of the source-basin system to a wholesale surface uplift event that may have occurred during the late Cenozoic in the Puna-Altiplano region. At this time coeval paleodrainage reorganization is observed not only in the Fiambala Basin, but also in different basins along the southern and eastern Puna margin, suggesting a genetic link between the last stage of plateau formation and basin response. However, this event did not cause sufficient exhumation of basin bounding ranges to be recorded by AFT thermochronology. Our new data thus document a decoupling between late Cenozoic surface uplift and exhumation in the southern Puna Plateau. High relief achieved at the Puna margin by late Miocene time is linked to Oligocene-Miocene exhumation; no significant erosion (< 3 km) has occurred since in this and highland.
A comprehensive survey of the accessory-mineral assemblages in Variscan granites of the German Erzgebirge and Pan-African granites from Jordan revealed the occurrence of intermediate solid solutions of the tetragonal thorite- xenotime-zircon-coffinite mineral group with partially novel compositions. These solid solutions preferentially formed in evolved and metasomatically altered, P-poor leucogranites of either I- or A-type affinity. Thorite from the Erzgebirge contained up to 18-8 Wt-% Y2O3, 16.1 wt.% ZrO2, and 23.3 Wt-% UO2. Xenotime and zircon have incorporated Th in abundances up to 36.3 wt.% and 41.8 wt.% ThO2, respectively. Extended compositional gradation with only minor gaps is confined to hydrated members of this mineral group, and is observed to exist between thorite and xenotime, thorite and coffinite, and Y-HREE-bearing thorite and zircon. Complex, hydrous solid solutions containing elevated abundances of three or more of the endmembers are subordinate. Previously reported intermediate solid solutions between anhydrous zircon and xenotime, and anhydrous zircon and thorite, are not observed and are in conflict with experimental work demonstrating very limited miscibility between anhydrous species of endmember composition. The majority of hydrous intermediate solid solutions in the Th-Y-Zr-U system are likely thermodynamically unstable. Instead, they are probably metastable responses to unusual physico-chemical conditions involving various parameters and conditions, the relative importance of which is incompletely known. Leaching and dissolution of preexisting accessory phases during interaction with F-bearing hydrous fluids enriched in Th, Y(HREE), Zr, and/or U, and common deposition of the various elements at disequilibrium (supersaturation) seems to play a key role, but other processes may be of similar importance. Experimental work involving hydrous conditions and complex systems composed of more than two endmembers are needed to shed light into the stability relations of the chemically uncommon compositions treated in this study.
Metamorphic dome complexes occur within the internal structures of the northern Himalaya and southern Tibet. Their origin, deformation, and fault displacement patterns are poorly constrained. We report new field mapping, structural data, and cooling ages from the western flank of the Leo Pargil dome in the northwestern Himalaya in an attempt to characterize its post-middle Miocene structural development. The western flank of the dome is characterized by shallow, west-dipping pervasive foliation and WNW-ESE mineral lineation. Shear-sense indicators demonstrate that it is affected by east-west normal faulting that facilitated exhumation of high-grade metamorphic rocks in a contractional setting. Sustained top-to-northwest normal faulting during exhumation is observed in a progressive transition from ductile to brittle deformation. Garnet and kyanite indicate that the Leo Pargil dome was exhumed from the mid-crust. Ar- 40/Ar-39 mica and apatite fission track (AFT) ages constrain cooling and exhumation pathways front 350 to 60 degrees C and suggest that the dome cooled in three stages since the middle Miocene. Ar-40/Ar-39 white mica ages of 16-14 Ma suggest a first phase of rapid cooling and provide minimum estimates for the onset of dome exhumation. AFT ages between 10 and 8 Ma suggest that ductile fault displacement had ceased by then, and AFT track-length data from high-elevation samples indicate that the rate of cooling had decreased significantly. We interpret this to indicate decreased fault displacement along the Leo Pargil shear zone and possibly a transition to the Kaurik-Chango normal fault system between 10 and 6 Ma. AFT ages from lower elevations indicate accelerated cooling since the Pliocene that cannot be related to pure fault displacement, and therefore may reflect more pronounced regionally distributed and erosion-driven exhumation
Inversions of an individual geophysical data set can be highly nonunique, and it is generally difficult to determine petrophysical parameters from geophysical data. We show that both issues can be addressed by adopting a statistical multiparameter approach that requires the acquisition, processing, and separate inversion of two or more types of geophysical data. To combine information contained in the physical-property models that result from inverting the individual data sets and to estimate the spatial distribution of petrophysical parameters in regions where they are known at only a few locations. we demonstrate the potential of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering technique. After testing this new approach on synthetic data, we apply it to limited crosshole georadar, crosshole seismic, gamma-log, and slug-test data acquired within a shallow alluvial aquifer. The derived multiparameter model effectively outlines the major sedimentary units observed in numerous boreholes and provides plausible estimates for the spatial distributions of gamma-ray emitters and hydraulic conductivity
The statistics of time delays between successive earthquakes has recently been claimed to be universal and to show the existence of clustering beyond the duration of aftershock bursts. We demonstrate that these claims are unjustified. Stochastic simulations with Poissonian background activity and triggered Omori-type aftershock sequences are shown to reproduce the interevent-time distributions observed on different spatial and magnitude scales in California. Thus the empirical distribution can be explained without any additional long-term clustering. Furthermore, we find that the shape of the interevent-time distribution, which can be approximated by the gamma distribution, is determined by the percentage of main-shocks in the catalog. This percentage can be calculated by the mean and variance of the interevent times and varies between 5% and 90% for different regions in California. Our investigation of stochastic simulations indicates that the interevent-time distribution provides a nonparametric reconstruction of the mainshock magnitude-frequency distribution that is superior to standard declustering algorithm
[1] The Kyrgyz Range, the northernmost portion of the Kyrgyzstan Tien Shan, displays topographic evidence for lateral propagation of surface uplift and exhumation. The highest, most deeply dissected segment lies in the center of the range. To the east, topography and relief decrease, and preserved remnants of a Cretaceous regional erosion surface imply minimal amounts of bedrock exhumation. The timing of exhumation of range segments defines the lateral propagation rate of the range-bounding reverse fault and quantifies the time and erosion depth needed to transform a mountain range from a juvenile to a mature morphology. New multicompositional apatite fission track ( AFT) data from three transects from the eastern Kyrgyz Range, combined with published AFT data, demonstrate that the range has propagated over 110 km eastward over the last similar to 7 - 11 Myr. On the basis of the thermal and topographic evolutionary history, we present a model for a time-varying exhumation rate driven by rock uplift and changes in erodability and the timescale of geomorphic adjustment to surface uplift. Easily eroded, Cenozoic sedimentary rocks overlying resistant basement control early, rapid exhumation and exhibit slow surface uplift rates. As increasing amounts of resistant basement are exposed, exhumation rates decrease while surface uplift rates are sustained or increase, thereby growing topography. As the range becomes high enough to cause ice accumulation and to develop steep river valleys, fluvial and glacial erosion becomes more powerful, and exhumation rates once again increase. Independently determined range-normal shortening rates also varied over time, suggesting a feedback between erosional efficiency and shortening rate
The iron speciation in hydrous haplotonalitic and haplogranitic silicate glasses was studied using XAFS spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Spectral features occurring at the main crest of the XANES at the iron K-edge of hydrous glasses indicate contributions to the spectra by iron-moieties present in a more ordered structural environment than found in the dry glass. These differences are also suggested by analysis of the EXAFS. These effects are not completely suppressed even for those samples that were quenched with a higher cooling rate. Strongest differences to the dry glass are observed for a sample that was quenched slowly through the temperature of glass transformation. Crystals (60 to 1500 nm in size) of magnetite, maghemite and another unidentified phase were observed in this sample by TEM, whereas no crystals were found in samples quenched with regular or high cooling rates. In-situ XANES measurements up to 700 degrees C and 500 MPa were performed to reveal the origin (i.e., during synthesis or quench) of the structural differences for those hydrous glasses that do not display any detectable crystallization. The comparison of XANES spectra collected on Fe2+ in water-saturated haplogranitic melt at 700 degrees C and 500 MPa and on Fe2+ in dry melt at 1150 degrees C shows that the local structural environment of Fe2+ in both systems is similar. This indicates that there is no detectable and direct influence of water on the local structure around iron in this type of melt. Hence, the differences observed between hydrous and dry glasses can only be related to artefacts formed during the quench process. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
In this paper, two sets of earthquake ground-motion relations to estimate peak ground and response spectral acceleration are developed for sites in southern Spain and in southern Norway using a recently published composite approach. For this purpose seven empirical ground-motion relations developed from recorded strong-motion data from different parts of the world were employed. The different relations were first adjusted based on a number of transformations to convert the differing choices of independent parameters to a single one. After these transformations, which include the scatter introduced, were performed, the equations were modified to account for differences between the host and the target regions using the stochastic method to compute the host-to-target conversion factors. Finally functions were fitted to the derived ground-motion estimates to obtain sets of seven individual equations for use in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for southern Spain and southern Norway. The relations are compared with local ones published for the two regions. The composite methodology calls for the setting up of independent logic trees for the median values and for the sigma values, in order to properly separate epistemic and aleatory uncertainties after the corrections and the conversions
Receiver functions (RF) are used to investigate the upper mantle structure beneath the Eifel, the youngest volcanic area of Central Europe. Data from 96 teleseismic events recorded by 242 seismological stations from permanent and a temporary network has been analysed. The temporary network operated from 1997 November to 1998 June and covered an area of approximately 400 x 250 km(2) centred on the Eifel volcanic fields. The average Moho depth in the Eifel is approximately 30 km, thinning to ca. 28 km under the Eifel volcanic fields. RF images suggest the existence of a low velocity zone at about 60-90 km depth under the West Eifel. This observation is supported by P- and S-wave tomographic results and absorption (but the array aperture limits the resolution of the tomographic methods to the upper 400 km). There are also indications for a zone of elevated velocities at around 200 km depth, again in agreement with S-wave and absorption tomographic results. This anomaly is not visible in P-wave tomography and could be due to S-wave anisotropy. The RF anomalies at the Moho, at 60-90 km, and near 200 km depth have a lateral extent of about 100 km. The 410 km discontinuity under the Eifel is depressed by 15-25 km, which could be explained by a maximum temperature increase of +200 degrees C to +300 degrees C. In the 3-D RF image of the Eifel Plume we also notice two additional currently unexplained conversions between 410 and 550 km depth. They could represent remnants of previous subduction or anomalies due to delayed phase changes. The lateral extent of these conversions and the depression of the 410 km discontinuity is about 200 km. The 660 km discontinuity does not show any depth deviation from its expected value. Our observations are consistent with interpretation in terms of an upper mantle plume but they do not rule out connections to processes at larger depth
Reaction rims of titanite on ilmenite are described in samples from four terranes of amphibolite-facies metapelites and amphibolites namely the Tamil Nadu area, southern India; the Val Strona, area of the Ivrea-Verbano Zone, northern Italy, the Bamble Sector, southern Norway, and the northwestern Austroalpine Otztal Complex. The titanite rims, and hence the stability of titanite (CaTiSiO4O) and Al-OH titanite, i.e. vuaganatite (hypothetical end-member CaAlSiO4OH), are discussed in the light of fH(2)O- and fO(2)-buffered equilibria involving clinopyroxene, amphibole, biotite, ilmenite, magnetite, and quartz in the systems CaO-FeO/Fe2O3-TiO2-SiO2-H2O-O-2 (CFTSH) and CaO-FeO/Fe2O3-Al2O3- SiO2-H2O-O-2 (CFASH) present in each of the examples. Textural evidence suggests that titanite reaction rims on ilmenite in rocks from Tamil Nadu, Val Strona, and the Bamble Sector originated most likely due to hydration reactions such as clinopyroxene + ilmenite +quartz+ H2O = amphibole +titanite and oxidation reactions such as amphibole + ilmenite + O-2 = titanite + magnetite + quartz + H2O during amphibolite-facies metamorphism, or, as in the case of the Otztal Complex, during a subsequent greenschist-facies overprint. Overstepping of these reactions requires fH(2)O and fO(2) to be high for titanite formation, which is also in accordance with equilibria involving Al-OH titanite. This study shows that, in addition to P, T, bulk-rock composition and composition of the coexisting fluid, fO(2) and fH(2)O also play an important role in the formation of Al-bearing titanite during amphibolite- and greenschist-facies metamorphism.
Several previous studies have addressed the diagenetic evolution of heterozoan carbonate assemblages. Generally it is assumed that early diagenetic processes in heterozoan settings are mainly destructive, including abrasion and dissolution on the sea floor. Constructive diagenesis (cementation) is delayed to later stages in the burial environment, with pressure solution of calcitic grains acting as a cement source. This paper presents a study of Oligo- Miocene inner- to outer-ramp heterozoan carbonates from the Central Mediterranean (Maltese Islands and Sicily) indicating that early diagenetic processes are more important than previously assumed. Four to five different cement types, including fibrous, two types of epitaxial, bladed and blocky cement, are distinguished based on transmitted light microscopy. Cathodoluminescence microscopy allowed a differentiation between primary high-Mg calcitic (fibrous and epitaxial cement I) and primary low-Mg calcitic (epitaxial cement II, bladed and blocky) cements. Stable-isotope data indicate cement precipitation from marine, marine-derived, and meteoric waters. Trace-element analyses point to cementation in an open system (Maltese Islands) and a closed system (Sicily). Our investigations show that the majority of constructive diagenetic processes in these rocks occurs rather early in the shallow, marine burial environment, which is transitional between the marine seafloor and the deep-burial diagenctic environment. The main cement source in this environment is assumed to be aragonite. We suggest careful consideration of the importance of aragonitic components in fossil heterozoan settings, which seem to be more abundant than previously assumed and can act as a major early cement source. Due to the low preservation potential of these components, detailed geochemical studies are necessary to detect aragonite as the cement source. Our findings also have implications when considering the reservoir qualities of these rocks, because primary porosity can be occluded early and secondary porosity is not preserved
[ 1] The Eastern Cordillera of Colombia is key to understanding the role of inherited basement anisotropies in the evolution of active noncollisional mountain belts. In particular, the Rio Blanco-Guatiquia region of the Eastern Cordillera is exemplary in displaying a variety of phenomena that document the importance of the orientation, geometry, and segmentation of preorogenic anisotropies. We document the first unambiguous evidence that extensional basement structures played an important role in determining the locus of deformation during contractional reactivation in the Eastern Cordillera. Detailed structural field mapping and analysis of industry seismic reflection profiles have helped to identify the inherited San Juanito, Naranjal, and Servita normal faults and associated transfer faults as important structures that were inverted during the Cenozoic Andean orogeny. Apparently, the more internal faults in the former rift basin were not properly oriented for an efficient reactivation in contraction. However, these faults have a fundamental role as strain risers, as folding is concentrated west of them. In contrast, reactivated normal faults such as the more external Servita fault are responsible for uplifting the eastern flank of the Eastern Cordillera. In addition, these structures are adjacent and intimately linked to the development of thin-skinned faults farther east. In part, the superimposed compression in this prestrained extensional region is compensated by lateral escape. The dominant presence of basement involved buckling and thrusting, and the restricted development of thin-skinned thrusting in this inversion orogen makes the Eastern Cordillera a close analog to the intraplate Atlas Mountains of Morocco and other inverted sectors of the Andean orogen farther south
In low-seismicity regions, such as France or Germany, the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard must cope with the difficult identification of active faults and with the low amount of seismic data available. Since the probabilistic hazard method was initiated, most studies assume a Poissonian occurrence of earthquakes. Here we propose a method that enables the inclusion of time and space dependences between earthquakes into the probabilistic estimation of hazard. Combining the seismicity model Epidemic Type Aftershocks-Sequence (ETAS) with a Monte Carlo technique, aftershocks are naturally accounted for in the hazard determination. The method is applied to the Pyrenees region in Southern France. The impact on hazard of declustering and of the usual assumption that earthquakes occur according to a Poisson process is quantified, showing that aftershocks contribute on average less than 5 per cent to the probabilistic hazard, with an upper bound around 18 per cent
Leech et al. [Mary L. Leech, S. Singh, A.K. Jain, Simon L. Klemperer and R.M. Manickavasagam, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 234 (2005) 83-97], present 3 clusters of ages for growth stages in zircon from quartzo- feldspathic gneisses hosting coesite-bearing eclogite from the Tso Morari Complex, NW India. These age clusters, from oldest to youngest, are interpreted to represent the age of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphism, a subsequent eclogite facies overprint and a later amphibolite facies retrogression and require subduction of Indian crust to have started earlier than previously accepted. However, no petrographic evidence, such as inclusions in the zircons relating to particular metamorphic events, is presented to substantiate the proposed sequence of metamorphic stages. Previously published data from eclogites of the same area indicate that coesite-eclogite is not the first but at least the second eclogite facies stage. In addition, the newly proposed time interval between coesite-eclogite and the amphibolite facies overprint is longer than previously indicated by diffusion modelling of natural garnet-garnet couples in eclogite. Neither the age of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphism nor the timing of initiation of subduction is reliably constrained by the presented data
The estimation of minimum-misfit stochastic models from empirical ground-motion prediction equations
(2006)
In areas of moderate to low seismic activity there is commonly a lack of recorded strong ground motion. As a consequence, the prediction of ground motion expected for hypothetical future earthquakes is often performed by employing empirical models from other regions. In this context, Campbell's hybrid empirical approach (Campbell, 2003, 2004) provides a methodological framework to adapt ground-motion prediction equations to arbitrary target regions by using response spectral host-to-target-region-conversion filters. For this purpose, the empirical ground-motion prediction equation has to be quantified in terms of a stochastic model. The problem we address here is how to do this in a systematic way and how to assess the corresponding uncertainties. For the determination of the model parameters we use a genetic algorithm search. The stochastic model spectra were calculated by using a speed-optimized version of SMSIM (Boore, 2000). For most of the empirical ground-motion models, we obtain sets of stochastic models that match the empirical models within the full magnitude and distance ranges of their generating data sets fairly well. The overall quality of fit and the resulting model parameter sets strongly depend on the particular choice of the distance metric used for the stochastic model. We suggest the use of the hypocentral distance metric for the stochastic Simulation of strong ground motion because it provides the lowest-misfit stochastic models for most empirical equations. This is in agreement with the results of two recent studies of hypocenter locations in finite-source models which indicate that hypocenters are often located close to regions of large slip (Mai et al., 2005; Manighetti et al., 2005). Because essentially all empirical ground-motion prediction equations contain data from different geographical regions, the model parameters corresponding to the lowest-misfit stochastic models cannot necessarily be expected to represent single, physically realizable host regions but to model the generating data sets in an average way. In addition, the differences between the lowest-misfit stochastic models and the empirical ground-motion prediction equation are strongly distance, magnitude, and frequency dependent, which, according to the laws of uncertainty propagation, will increase the variance of the corresponding hybrid empirical model predictions (Scherbaum et al., 2005). As a consequence, the selection of empirical ground-motion models for host-to-target-region conversions requires considerable judgment of the ground-motion analyst
In the estimate of dispersion with the help of wavelet analysis considerable emphasis has been put on the extraction of the group velocity using the modulus of the wavelet transform. In this paper we give an asymptotic expression of the full propagator in wavelet space that comprises the phase velocity as well. This operator establishes a relationship between the observed signals at two different stations during wave propagation in a dispersive and attenuating medium. Numerical and experimental examples are presented to show that the method accurately models seismic wave dispersion and attenuation
We report measurements of radial and azimuthal anisotropy in the tipper mantle beneath southern and central Finland, which we obtained by array analysis of fundamental-mode Rayleigh and Love waves. Azimuthally averaged phase velocities were analysed in the period range 15 to 190 s for Rayleigh waves and 15 to 100 s for Love waves. The azimuthal variation of the Rayleigh wave phase velocities was obtained in the period range 20 to 100s. The limited depth resolution of fundamental-mode surface waves necessitated strong damping constraints in the inversion for anisotropic parameters. We investigated the effects of non-unicity on the final model by experimenting with varying model geometries. The radial anisotropy beneath Finland can be explained by a lithosphere at least 200km thick, predominantly (> 50% by volume) composed of olivine crystals having their a-axes randomly distributed in the horizontal plane. On the contrary, the measured lithospheric azimuthal anisotropy is small. This call be reconciled with body-wave observations made in the area that indicate a complex pattern of rapidly varying anisotropy. Below 200-250km depth, that is below the petrologic lithosphere as revealed by xenolith analyses conducted in the area, the magnitude of the azimuthal anisotropy increases and would be compatible with a mantle containing 15-20% by volume of olivine crystals whose a-axes are coherently aligned in the N-NE direction. The alignment of the a-axes is off the direction of present-day absolute plate motion in either the no-net-rotation or hot-spot reference frame, currently N55-N60. We interpret this mismatch as evidence for a complex convective flow pattern of the mantle beneath the shield, which, by inference, is decoupled from the overlying lithosphere.
In the humid tropics, continuing high deforestation rates are seen alongside an increasing expansion of secondary forests. In order to understand and model the consequences of these dynamic land-use changes for regional water cycles, the response of soil hydraulic properties to forest disturbance and recovery has to be quantified.At a site in the Brazilian Amazonia, we annually monitored soil infiltrability and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at 12.5, 20 cm, and 50 cm soil depth after manual forest conversion to pasture (year zero to four after pasture establishment), and during secondary succession after pasture abandonment (year zero to seven after pasture abandonment). We evaluated the hydrological consequences of the detected changes by comparing the soil hydraulic properties with site-specific rainfall intensities and hydrometric observations. Within one year after grazing started, infiltrability and K-s at 12.5 and 20 cm depth decreased by up to one order of magnitude to levels which are typical for 20-year-old pasture. In the three subsequent monitoring years, infiltrability and K-s remained stable. Land use did not impact on subsoil permeability. Whereas infiltrability values are large enough to allow all rainwater to infiltrate even after the conversion, the sudden decline of near-surface K-s is of hydrological relevance as perched water tables and overland flow occur more often on pastures than in forests at our study site. After pasture abandonment and during secondary succession, seven years of recovery did not suffice to significantly increase infiltrability and K-s at 12.5 depth although a slight recovery is obvious. At 20 cm soil depth, we detected a positive linear increase within the seven-year time frame but annual means did not differ significantly. Although more than a doubling of infiltrability and K-s is still required to achieve pre-disturbance levels, which will presumably take more than a decade, the observed slight increases of K-s might already decrease the probability of perched water table generation and overland flow development well before complete recovery.
Major earthquakes ( M > 8) have repeatedly ruptured the Nazca-South America plate interface of south-central Chile involving meter scale land-level changes. Earthquake recurrence intervals, however, extending beyond limited historical records are virtually unknown, but would provide crucial data on the tectonic behavior of forearcs. We analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of Holocene earthquakes on Santa Maria Island (SMI; 37 degrees S), located 20 km off the Chilean coast and approximately 70 km east of the trench. SMI hosts a minimum of 21 uplifted beach berms, of which a subset were dated to calculate a mean uplift rate of 2.3 +/- 0.2 m/ky and a tilting rate of 0.022 +/- 0.002 degrees/ky. The inferred recurrence interval of strandline-forming earthquakes is similar to 180 years. Combining coseismic uplift and aseismic subsidence during an earthquake cycle, the net gain in strandline elevation in this environment is similar to 0.4 m per event
Three ODP sites located on the Marion Plateau, Northeast Australian margin, were investigated for clay mineral and bulk mineralogy changes through the early to middle Miocene. Kaolinite to smectite (K/S) ratios, as well as mass accumulation rates of clays, point to a marked decrease in accumulation of smectite associated with an increase in accumulation of kaolinite starting at similar to 15.6 Ma, followed by a, second increase in accumulation of kaolinite at similar to 13.2 Ma. Both of these increases are correlative to an increase in the calcite to detritus ratio. Comparison of our record with published precipitation proxies from continental Queensland indicates that increases in kaolinite did not correspond to more intense tropical-humid conditions, but instead to periods of greater aridity. Three mechanisms are explored to explain the temporal trends in clad, on the Marion Plateau: sea-level changes, changes in oceanic currents, and denudation of the Australian continent followed by reworking and eolian transport of clays. Though low mass accumulation rates of kaolinite are compatible with a possible contribution of eolian material after 14 Ma, when Australia became more arid, the lateral distribution of kaolinite along slope indicates mainly fluvial input for all clays and thus rules out this mechanism as well as oceanic current transport as the main controls behind clay accumulation on the plateau. We propose a model explaining the good correlation between long-term sea-level fall, decrease in smectite accumulation, increase in kaolinite accumulation and increase in carbonate input to the distal slope locations. We hypothesize that during low sea level and thus periods of drier continental climate in Queensland, early Miocene kaolinite-rich lacustrine deposits were being reworked, and that the progradation of the heterozoan carbonate platforms towards the basin center favored input of carbonate to the distal slope sites. The major find of our study is that increase kaolinite fluxes on the Queensland margin during the early and middle Miocene did not reflect the establishment of a tropical climate, and this stresses that care must be taken when reconstructing Australian climate based on deep-sea clay records alone.
MATLAB is used in a wide range of applications in geosciences, such as image processing in remote sensing, generation and processing of digital elevation models and the analysis of time series. This book introduces basic methods of data analysis in geosciences using MATLAB. The text includes a brief description of each method and numerous examples on how MATLAB can be used on data sets from earth sciences. All MATLAB recipes can easily be modified in order to analyse the reader's own data sets. The book comes with a CD containing example data sets and a digital version of the MATLAB recipes.
MATLAB is used in a wide range of applications in geosciences, such as image processing in remote sensing, generation and processing of digital elevation models and the analysis of time series. This book introduces basic methods of data analysis in geosciences using MATLAB. The text includes a brief description of each method and numerous examples demonstrating how MATLAB can be used on data sets from earth sciences. All MATLAB recipes can be easily modified in order to analyse the reader's own data sets. The book comes with a CD containing exemplary data sets and a digital version of the MATLAB recipes. (Springer)
We employ P to S converted waveforms to investigate effects of the hot mantle plume on seismic discontinuities of the crust and upper mantle. We observe the Moho at depths between 13 and 17 km, regionally covered by a strong shallow intracrustal converted phase. Coherent phases on the transverse component indicate either dipping interfaces, 3- D heterogeneities or lower crustal anisotropy. We find anomalies related to discontinuities in the upper mantle down to the transition zone evidently related to the hot mantle plume. Lithospheric thinning is confirmed in greater detail than previously reported by Li et al., and we determine the dimensions of the low-velocity zone within the asthenosphere with greater accuracy. Our study mainly focuses on the temperature-pressure dependent discontinuities of the upper mantle transition zone. Effects of the hot diapir on the depths of mineral phase transitions are verified at both major interfaces at 410 and 660 km. We determine a plume radius of about 200 km at the 660 km discontinuity with a core zone of about 120 km radius. The plume conduit is located southwest of Big Island. A conduit tilted in the northeast direction is required in the upper mantle to explain the observations. The determined positions of deflections of the discontinuities support the hypothesis of decoupled upper and lower mantle convection
Natural hazards can have serious societal and economic impacts. Worldwide, around one third of economic losses due to natural hazards are attributable to floods. The majority of natural hazards are triggered by weather-related extremes such as heavy precipitation, rapid snow melt, or extreme temperatures. Some of them, and in particular floods, are expected to further increase in terms of frequency and/or intensity in the coming decades due to the impacts of climate change. In this context, the European Alps areas are constantly disclosed as being particularly sensitive.
In order to enhance the resilience of societies to natural hazards, risk assessments are substantial as they can deliver comprehensive risk information to be used as a basis for effective and sustainable decision-making in natural hazards management. So far, current assessment approaches mostly focus on single societal or economic sectors – e.g. flood damage models largely concentrate on private-sector housing – and other important sectors, such as the transport infrastructure sector, are widely neglected. However, transport infrastructure considerably contributes to economic and societal welfare, e.g. by ensuring mobility of people and goods. In Austria, for example, the national railway network is essential for the European transit of passengers and freights as well as for the development of the complex Alpine topography. Moreover, a number of recent experiences show that railway infrastructure and transportation is highly vulnerable to natural hazards. As a consequence, the Austrian Federal Railways had to cope with economic losses on the scale of several million euros as a result of flooding and other alpine hazards.
The motivation of this thesis is to contribute to filling the gap of knowledge about damage to railway infrastructure caused by natural hazards by providing new risk information for actors and stakeholders involved in the risk management of railway transportation. Hence, in order to support the decision-making towards a more effective and sustainable risk management, the following two shortcomings in natural risks research are approached: i) the lack of dedicated models to estimate flood damage to railway infrastructure, and ii) the scarcity of insights into possible climate change impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events with focus on future implications for railway transportation in Austria.
With regard to flood impacts to railway infrastructure, the empirically derived damage model Railway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) proved expedient to reliably estimate both structural flood damage at exposed track sections of the Northern Railway and resulting repair cost. The results show that the RAIL model is capable of identifying flood risk hot spots along the railway network and, thus, facilitates the targeted planning and implementation of (technical) risk reduction measures. However, the findings of this study also show that the development and validation of flood damage models for railway infrastructure is generally constrained by the continuing lack of detailed event and damage data.
In order to provide flood risk information on the large scale to support strategic flood risk management, the RAIL model was applied for the Austrian Mur River catchment using three different hydraulic scenarios as input as well as considering an increased risk aversion of the railway operator. Results indicate that the model is able to deliver comprehensive risk information also on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that the aspect of risk aversion can have marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.
Looking at the results of the investigation on future frequencies of extreme weather events jeopardizing railway infrastructure and transportation in Austria, it appears that an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves has to be expected, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of extremes are rather sensitive to changes of the underlying thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and — if needed — to adapt the thresholds that are used to detect and forecast meteorological extremes. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a prerequisite.
Overall, the findings of the research presented in this thesis agree on the necessity to improve event and damage documentation procedures in order to enable the acquisition of comprehensive and reliable risk information via risk assessments and, thus, support strategic natural hazards management of railway infrastructure and transportation.
The humid tropics are the region with the highest rate of land-cover change worldwide. Especially prevalent is the deforestation of old-growth tropical forests to create space for cattle pastures and soybean fields.
The regional water cycle is influenced by vegetation cover in various ways. Especially evapotranspiration considerably contributes to water vapor content in the lower atmosphere. Besides active transpiration by plants, evaporation from wetted plant surfaces further known as interception loss is an important supply of water vapor. Changes in interception loss due to change in land cover and the related consequences on the regional water cycle in the humid tropics of Latin America are the research focus of my thesis. (1) In an experimental setup I assess differences in interception loss between an old-growth tropical forest and a soybean plantation. (2) In a modeling study, I examine interception losses of these two vegetation types compared to a younger secondary forest with the use of the Gash interception model, including an uncertainty analysis for the estimation of the necessary model parameters. (3) Studying the water balance of a 192-km² catchment I disentangle the influences of changes in land cover and climatic factors on interception loss.
The three different research sites in my thesis represent a currently typical spectrum for land-cover changes in Latin America. In the first example I study the consequences of deforestation of transitional forest, which forms the transition from the Brazilian tree savanna (cerrado) to tropical rain forest, for the establishment of soybean fields in the southern Amazon basin. The second study site is a young secondary forest within the “Agua Salud” project area in Panama as an example of reforestation of former pastures. The third study site is the Cirí Grande river catchment which comprises a mixture of young and old forests as well as pastures, which is typical for the southern sub-catchments of the Panama Canal.
The experimental approach consists of the indirect estimation of interception loss by measuring throughfall and stem flow. For the first experimental study I measured throughfall as well as stem flow manually. Measurements of the leaf area index of the two land covers do not show distinct differences; hence it could not serve as an explanation for the differences in the measured interception loss. The considerably higher interception loss at the soybean field is attributed to a possible underestimation of stemflow but also to the stronger ventilation within the well-structured plant rows causing higher evaporation rates. This situation is valid only for two months of the rainy season, when soybean plants are fully developed. In the annual balance evapotranspiration at the soybean site is clearly less than at the forest site, accelerating the development of fast runoff components and consequently discharge. In the medium term, a reduction of water availability in the study area can be expected.
For the modeling study, throughfall in a young secondary forest is sampled automatically. The resulting temporally high-resolution dataset allows the distinction between different precipitation and interception events. The core of this study is the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the Gash interception model parameters and the consequences for its results. Canopy storage capacity plays a key role for the model and parameter uncertainty. With increasing storage capacity uncertainty in parameter delineation also increases. Evaporation rate as the driving component of the interception process incorporates in this context the largest parameter uncertainty. Depending on the selected method for parameter estimation, parameter values may vary tremendously.
In the third study, I analyze the influence of interception loss on the water balance of the Cirí Grande catchment, incorporating the interlinked effects of temperature, precipitation and changes of the land use mosaic using the SWAT (soil water assessment tool) model. Constructing several land-cover scenarios I assess their influence on the catchment’s discharge. The results show that land-cover change exerts only a small influence on annual discharge in the Cirí Grande catchment whereas an increase in temperature markedly influences evapotranspiration. The temperature-induced larger transpiration and interception loss balances the simultaneous increase in annual precipitation, such that the resulting changes in annual discharge are negligible.
The results of the three studies show the considerable effect of land cover on interception. However, the magnitude of this effect can be masked by changes in local conditions, especially by an increase in temperature. Hence, the results cannot be transferred easily between the different study sites. For modeling purposes, this means that measurements of vegetation characteristics as well as interception loss at the respective sites are indispensable.
Rapidly uplifting coastlines are frequently associated with convergent tectonic boundaries, like subduction zones, which are repeatedly breached by giant megathrust earthquakes. The coastal relief along tectonically active realms is shaped by the effect of sea-level variations and heterogeneous patterns of permanent tectonic deformation, which are accumulated through several cycles of megathrust earthquakes. However, the correlation between earthquake deformation patterns and the sustained long-term segmentation of forearcs, particularly in Chile, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, the methods used to estimate permanent deformation from geomorphic markers, like marine terraces, have remained qualitative and are based on unrepeatable methods. This contrasts with the increasing resolution of digital elevation models, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and high-resolution bathymetric surveys.
Throughout this thesis I study permanent deformation in a holistic manner: from the methods to assess deformation rates, to the processes involved in its accumulation. My research focuses particularly on two aspects: Developing methodologies to assess permanent deformation using marine terraces, and comparing permanent deformation with seismic cycle deformation patterns under different spatial scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Two methods are developed to determine deformation rates from wave-built and wave-cut terraces respectively. I selected an archetypal example of a wave-built terrace at Santa Maria Island studying its stratigraphy and recognizing sequences of reoccupation events tied with eleven radiocarbon sample ages (14C ages). I developed a method to link patterns of reoccupation with sea-level proxies by iterating relative sea level curves for a range of uplift rates. I find the best fit between relative sea-level and the stratigraphic patterns for an uplift rate of 1.5 +- 0.3 m/ka.
A Graphical User Interface named TerraceM® was developed in Matlab®. This novel software tool determines shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces under different geomorphic scenarios. To validate the methods, I select test sites in areas of available high-resolution LiDAR topography along the Maule earthquake rupture zone and in California, USA. The software allows determining the 3D location of the shoreline angle, which is a proxy for the estimation of permanent deformation rates. The method is based on linear interpolations to define the paleo platform and cliff on swath profiles. The shoreline angle is then located by intersecting these interpolations. The
accuracy and precision of TerraceM® was tested by comparing its results with previous assessments, and through an experiment with students in a computer lab setting at the University
of Potsdam.
I combined the methods developed to analyze wave-built and wave-cut terraces to assess regional patterns of permanent deformation along the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture. Wave-built terraces are tied using 12 Infra Red Stimulated luminescence ages (IRSL ages) and shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces are estimated from 170 aligned swath profiles. The comparison of coseismic slip, interseismic coupling, and permanent deformation, leads to three areas of high permanent uplift, terrace warping, and sharp fault offsets. These three areas correlate with regions of high slip and low coupling, as well as with the spatial limit of at least eight historical megathrust ruptures (M8-9.5). I propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust, which result in discrete boundaries for the propagation of mega earthquakes.
To explore the application of geomorphic markers and quantitative morphology in offshore areas I performed a local study of patterns of permanent deformation inferred from hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines at the Arauco Bay, at the southern part of the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture zone. A multidisciplinary approach, including morphometry, sedimentology, paleontology, 3D morphoscopy, and a landscape Evolution Model is used to recognize, map, and assess local rates and patterns of permanent deformation in submarine environments. Permanent deformation patterns are then reproduced using elastic models to assess deformation rates of an active submarine splay fault defined as Santa Maria Fault System. The best fit suggests a reverse structure with a slip rate of 3.7 m/ka for the last 30 ka. The register of land level changes during the earthquake cycle at Santa Maria Island suggest that most of the deformation may be accrued through splay fault reactivation during mega earthquakes, like the (2010) Maule event. Considering a recurrence time of 150 to 200 years, as determined from historical and geological observations, slip between 0.3 and 0.7 m per event would be required to account for the 3.7 m/ka millennial slip rate. However, if the SMFS slips only every ~1000 years, representing a few megathrust earthquakes, then a slip of ~3.5 m per event would be required to account for the long- term rate. Such event would be equivalent to a magnitude ~6.7 earthquake capable to generate a local tsunami.
The results of this thesis provide novel and fundamental information regarding the amount of permanent deformation accrued in the crust, and the mechanisms responsible for this accumulation at millennial time-scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Furthermore, the results of this thesis highlight the application of quantitative geomorphology and the use of repeatable methods to determine permanent deformation, improve the accuracy of marine terrace assessments, and estimates of vertical deformation rates in tectonically active coastal areas. This is vital information for adequate coastal-hazard assessments and to anticipate realistic earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Intermontane valley fills
(2016)
Sedimentary valley fills are a widespread characteristic of mountain belts around the world. They transiently store material over time spans ranging from thousands to millions of years and therefore play an important role in modulating the sediment flux from the orogen to the foreland and to oceanic depocenters. In most cases, their formation can be attributed to specific fluvial conditions, which are closely related to climatic and tectonic processes. Hence, valley-fill deposits constitute valuable archives that offer fundamental insight into landscape evolution, and their study may help to assess the impact of future climate change on sediment dynamics.
In this thesis I analyzed intermontane valley-fill deposits to constrain different aspects of the climatic and tectonic history of mountain belts over multiple timescales. First, I developed a method to estimate the thickness distribution of valley fills using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Based on the assumption of geometrical similarity between exposed and buried parts of the landscape, this novel and highly automated technique allows reconstructing fill thickness and bedrock topography on the scale of catchments to entire mountain belts.
Second, I used the new method for estimating the spatial distribution of post-glacial sediments that are stored in the entire European Alps. A comparison with data from exploratory drillings and from geophysical surveys revealed that the model reproduces the measurements with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 70m and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.81. I used the derived sediment thickness estimates in combination with a model of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) icecap to infer the lithospheric response to deglaciation, erosion and deposition, and deduce their relative contribution to the present-day rock-uplift rate. For a range of different lithospheric and upper mantle-material properties, the results suggest that the long-wavelength uplift signal can be explained by glacial isostatic adjustment with a small erosional contribution and a substantial but localized tectonic component exceeding 50% in parts of the Eastern Alps and in the Swiss Rhône Valley. Furthermore, this study reveals the particular importance of deconvolving the potential components of rock uplift when interpreting recent movements along active orogens and how this can be used to constrain physical properties of the Earth’s interior.
In a third study, I used the ANN approach to estimate the sediment thickness of alluviated reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, upstream of the rapidly uplifting Namche Barwa massif. This allowed my colleagues and me to reconstruct the ancient river profile of the Yarlung Tsangpo, and to show that in the past, the river had already been deeply incised into the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Dating of basal sediments from drill cores that reached the paleo-river bed to 2–2.5 Ma are consistent with mineral cooling ages from the Namche Barwa massif, which indicate initiation of rapid uplift at ~4 Ma. Hence, formation of the Tsangpo gorge and aggradation of the voluminous valley fill was most probably a consequence of rapid uplift of the Namche Barwa massif and thus tectonic activity.
The fourth and last study focuses on the interaction of fluvial and glacial processes at the southeastern edge of the Karakoram. Paleo-ice-extent indicators and remnants of a more than 400-m-thick fluvio-lacustrine valley fill point to blockage of the Shyok River, a main tributary of the upper Indus, by the Siachen Glacier, which is the largest glacier in the Karakoram Range. Field observations and 10Be exposure dating attest to a period of recurring lake formation and outburst flooding during the penultimate glaciation prior to ~110 ka. The interaction of Rivers and Glaciers all along the Karakorum is considered a key factor in landscape evolution and presumably promoted headward erosion of the Indus-Shyok drainage system into the western margin of the Tibetan Plateau.
The results of this thesis highlight the strong influence of glaciation and tectonics on valley-fill formation and how this has affected the evolution of different mountain belts. In the Alps valley-fill deposition influenced the magnitude and pattern of rock uplift since ice retreat approximately 17,000 years ago. Conversely, the analyzed valley fills in the Himalaya are much older and reflect environmental conditions that prevailed at ~110 ka and ~2.5 Ma, respectively. Thus, the newly developed method has proven useful for inferring the role of sedimentary valley-fill deposits in landscape evolution on timescales ranging from 1,000 to 10,000,000 years.
The Earth’s shallow subsurface with sedimentary cover acts as a waveguide to any incoming wavefield. Within the framework of my thesis, I focused on the characterization of this shallow subsurface within tens to few hundreds of meters of sediment cover. I imaged the seismic 1D shear wave velocity (and possibly the 1D compressional wave velocity). This information is not only required for any seismic risk assessment, geotechnical engineering or microzonation activities, but also for exploration and global seismology where site effects are often neglected in seismic waveform modeling.
First, the conventional frequency-wavenumber (f - k) technique is used to derive the dispersion characteristic of the propagating surface waves recorded using distinct arrays of seismometers in 1D and 2D configurations. Further, the cross-correlation technique is applied to seismic array data to estimate the Green’s function between receivers pairs combination assuming one is the source and the other the receiver. With the consideration of a 1D media, the estimated cross-correlation Green’s functions are sorted with interstation distance in a virtual 1D active seismic experiment. The f - k technique is then used to estimate the dispersion curves. This integrated analysis is important for the interpretation of a large bandwidth of the phase velocity dispersion curves and therefore improving the resolution of the estimated 1D Vs profile.
Second, the new theoretical approach based on the Diffuse Field Assumption (DFA) is used for the interpretation of the observed microtremors H/V spectral ratio. The theory is further extended in this research work to include not only the interpretation of the H/V measured at the surface, but also the H/V measured at depths and in marine environments. A modeling and inversion of synthetic H/V spectral ratio curves on simple predefined geological structures shows an almost perfect recovery of the model parameters (mainly Vs and to a lesser extent Vp). These results are obtained after information from a receiver at depth has been considered in the inversion.
Finally, the Rayleigh wave phase velocity information, estimated from array data, and the H/V(z, f) spectral ratio, estimated from a single station data, are combined and inverted for the velocity profile information. Obtained results indicate an improved depth resolution in comparison to estimations using the phase velocity dispersion curves only. The overall estimated sediment thickness is comparable to estimations obtained by inverting the full micortremor H/V spectral ratio.
Variations in the distribution of mass within an orogen may lead to transient sediment storage, which in turn might affect the state of stress and the level of fault activity. Distinguishing between different forcing mechanisms causing variations of sediment flux and tectonic activity, is therefore one of the most challenging tasks in understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of active mountain belts.
The Himalayan mountain belt is one of the most significant Cenozoic collisional mountain belt, formed due to collision between northward-bound Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate during the last 55-50 Ma. Ongoing convergence of these two tectonic plates is accommodated by faulting and folding within the Himalayan arc-shaped orogen and the continued lateral and vertical growth of the Tibetan Plateau and mountain belts adjacent to the plateau as well as regions farther north. Growth of the Himalayan orogen is manifested by the development of successive south-vergent thrust systems. These thrust systems divide the orogen into different morphotectonic domains. From north to south these thrusts are the Main Central Thrust (MCT), the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). The growing topography interacts with moisture-bearing monsoonal winds, which results in pronounced gradients in rainfall, weathering, erosion and sediment transport toward the foreland and beyond. However, a fraction of this sediment is trapped and transiently stored within the intermontane valleys or ‘dun’s within the lower-elevation foothills of the range. Improved understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of these sediment archives could provide a unique opportunity to decipher the triggers of variations in sediment production, delivery and storage in an actively deforming mountain belt and support efforts to test linkages between sediment volumes in intermontane basins and changes in the shallow crustal stress field. As sediment redistribution in mountain belts on timescales of 102-104 years can effect cultural characteristics and infrastructure in the intermontane valleys and may even impact the seismotectonics of a mountain belt, there is a heightened interest in understanding sediment-routing processes and causal relationships between tectonism, climate and topography. It is here at the intersection between tectonic processes and superposed climatic and sedimentary processes in the Himalayan orogenic wedge, where my investigation is focused on. The study area is the intermontane Kangra Basin in the northwestern Sub-Himalaya, because the characteristics of the different Himalayan morphotectonic provinces are well developed, the area is part of a region strongly influenced by monsoonal forcing, and the existence of numerous fluvial terraces provides excellent strain markers to assess deformation processes within the Himalayan orogenic wedge. In addition, being located in front of the Dhauladhar Range the region is characterized by pronounced gradients in past and present-day erosion and sediment processes associated with repeatedly changing climatic conditions. In light of these conditions I analysed climate-driven late Pleistocene-Holocene sediment cycles in this tectonically active region, which may be responsible for triggering the tectonic re-organization within the Himalayan orogenic wedge, leading to out-of-sequence thrusting, at least since early Holocene.
The Kangra Basin is bounded by the MBT and the Sub-Himalayan Jwalamukhi Thrust (JMT) in the north and south, respectively and transiently stores sediments derived from the Dhauladhar Range. The Basin contains ~200-m-thick conglomerates reflecting two distinct aggradation phases; following aggradation, several fluvial terraces were sculpted into these fan deposits. 10Be CRN surface exposure dating of these terrace levels provides an age of 53.4±3.2 ka for the highest-preserved terrace (AF1); subsequently, this surface was incised until ~15 ka, when the second fan (AF2) began to form. AF2 fan aggradation was superseded by episodic Holocene incision, creating at least four terrace levels. We find a correlation between variations in sediment transport and ∂18O records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). During strengthened ISMs sand post-LGM glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of a weakened ISM coupled with lower sediment supply coincided with renewed re-incision.
However, the evolution of fluvial terraces along Sub-Himalayan streams in the Kangra sector is also forced by tectonic processes. Back-tilted, folded terraces clearly document tectonic activity of the JMT. Offset of one of the terrace levels indicates a shortening rate of 5.6±0.8 to 7.5±1.0 mm.a-1 over the last ~10 ka. Importantly, my study reveals that late Pleistocene/Holocene out-of-sequence thrusting accommodates 40-60% of the total 14±2 mm.a-1 shortening partitioned throughout the Sub-Himalaya. Importantly, the JMT records shortening at a lower rate over longer timescales hints towards out-of-sequence activity within the Sub-Himalaya. Re-activation of the JMT could be related to changes in the tectonic stress field caused by large-scale sediment removal from the basin. I speculate that the deformation processes of the Sub-Himalaya behave according to the predictions of critical wedge model and assume the following: While >200m of sediment aggradation would trigger foreland-ward propagation of the deformation front, re-incision and removal of most of the stored sediments (nearly 80-85% of the optimum basin-fill) would again create a sub-critical condition of the wedge taper and trigger the retreat of the deformation front.
While tectonism is responsible for the longer-term processes of erosion associated with steepening hillslopes, sediment cycles in this environment are mainly the result of climatic forcing. My new 10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure dates and a synopsis of previous studies show the late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces studied here record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 1000-100000 years. To further evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, I compared the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with continental climate archives such as speleothems in neighboring regions affected by monsoonal precipitation. Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, I find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Accordingly, during periods of increased monsoon intensity (transitions from dry and cold to wet and warm periods – MIS4 to MIS3 and MIS2 to MIS1) (MIS=marine isotope stage) and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux. Conversely, periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with re-incision of the existing basin-fill.
Finally, my study entails part of a low-temperature thermochronology study to assess the youngest exhumation history of the Dhauladhar Range. Zircon helium (ZHe) ages and existing low-temperature data sets (ZHe, apatite fission track (AFT)) across this range, together with 3D thermokinematic modeling (PECUBE) reveals constraints on exhumation and activity of the range-bounding Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) since at least mid-Miocene time. The modeling results indicate mean slip rates on the MBT-fault ramp of ~2 – 3 mm.a-1 since its activation. This has lead to the growth of the >5-km-high frontal Dhauladhar Range and continuous deep-seated exhumation and erosion. The obtained results also provide interesting constraints of deformation patterns and their variation along strike. The results point towards the absence of the time-transient ‘mid-crustal ramp’ in the basal decollement and
duplexing of the Lesser Himalayan sequence, unlike the nearby regions or even the central Nepal domain. A fraction of convergence (~10-15%) is accommodated along the deep-seated MBT-ramp, most likely merging into the MHT. This finding is crucial for a rigorous assessment of the overall level of tectonic activity in the Himalayan morphotectonic provinces as it contradicts recently-published geodetic shortening estimates. In these studies, it has been proposed that the total Himalayan shortening in the NW Himalaya is accommodated within the Sub-Himalaya whereas no tectonic activity is assigned to the MBT.
Understanding the role of natural climate variability under the pressure of human induced changes of climate and landscapes, is crucial to improve future projections and adaption strategies. This doctoral thesis aims to reconstruct Holocene climate and environmental changes in NE Germany based on annually laminated lake sediments. The work contributes to the ICLEA project (Integrated CLimate and Landscape Evolution Analyses). ICLEA intends to compare multiple high-resolution proxy records with independent chronologies from the N central European lowlands, in order to disentangle the impact of climate change and human land use on landscape development during the Lateglacial and Holocene. In this respect, two study sites in NE Germany are investigated in this doctoral project, Lake Tiefer See and palaeolake Wukenfurche. While both sediment records are studied with a combination of high-resolution sediment microfacies and geochemical analyses (e.g. µ-XRF, carbon geochemistry and stable isotopes), detailed proxy understanding mainly focused on the continuous 7.7 m long sediment core from Lake Tiefer See covering the last ~6000 years. Three main objectives are pursued at Lake Tiefer See: (1) to perform a reliable and independent chronology, (2) to establish microfacies and geochemical proxies as indicators for climate and environmental changes, and (3) to trace the effects of climate variability and human activity on sediment deposition.
Addressing the first aim, a reliable chronology of Lake Tiefer See is compiled by using a multiple-dating concept. Varve counting and tephra findings form the chronological framework for the last ~6000 years. The good agreement with independent radiocarbon dates of terrestrial plant remains verifies the robustness of the age model. The resulting reliable and independent chronology of Lake Tiefer See and, additionally, the identification of nine tephras provide a valuable base for detailed comparison and synchronization of the Lake Tiefer See data set with other climate records. The sediment profile of Lake Tiefer See exhibits striking alternations between well-varved and non-varved sediment intervals. The combination of microfacies, geochemical and microfossil (i.e. Cladocera and diatom) analyses indicates that these changes of varve preservation are caused by variations of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See. An exception is the well-varved sediment deposited since AD 1924, which is mainly influenced by human-induced lake eutrophication. Well-varved intervals before the 20th century are considered to reflect phases of reduced lake circulation and, consequently, stronger anoxic conditions. Instead, non-varved intervals indicate increased lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See, leading to more oxygenated conditions at the lake ground. Furthermore, lake circulation is not only influencing sediment deposition, but also geochemical processes in the lake. As, for example, the proxy meaning of δ13COM varies in time in response to changes of the oxygen regime in the lake hypolinion. During reduced lake circulation and stronger anoxic conditions δ13COM is influenced by microbial carbon cycling. In contrast, organic matter degradation controls δ13COM during phases of intensified lake circulation and more oxygenated conditions. The varve preservation indicates an increasing trend of lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See after ~4000 cal a BP. This trend is superimposed by decadal to centennial scale variability of lake circulation intensity. Comparison to other records in Central Europe suggests that the long-term trend is probably related to gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere orbital forcing, which induced colder and windier conditions in Central Europe and, therefore, reinforced lake circulation. Decadal to centennial scale periods of increased lake circulation coincide with settlement phases at Lake Tiefer See, as inferred from pollen data of the same sediment record. Deforestation reduced the wind shelter of the lake, which probably increased the sensitivity of lake circulation to wind stress. However, results of this thesis also suggest that several of these phases of increased lake circulation are additionally reinforced by climate changes. A first indication is provided by the comparison to the Baltic Sea record, which shows striking correspondence between major non-varved intervals at Lake Tiefer See and bioturbated sediments in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, a preliminary comparison to the ICLEA study site Lake Czechowskie (N central Poland) shows a coincidence of at least three phases of increased lake circulation in both lakes, which concur with periods of known climate changes (2.8 ka event, ’Migration Period’ and ’Little Ice Age’). These results suggest an additional over-regional climate forcing also on short term increased of lake circulation in Lake Tiefer See.
In summary, the results of this thesis suggest that lake circulation at Lake Tiefer See is driven by a combination of long-term and short-term climate changes as well as of anthropogenic deforestation phases. Furthermore, the lake circulation drives geochemical cycles in the lake affecting the meaning of proxy data. Therefore, the work presented here expands the knowledge of climate and environmental variability in NE Germany. Furthermore, the integration of the Lake Tiefer See multi-proxy record in a regional comparison with another ICLEA side, Lake Czechowskie, enabled to better decipher climate changes and human impact on the lake system. These first results suggest a huge potential for further detailed regional comparisons to better understand palaeoclimate dynamics in N central Europe.
Ecosystems' exposure to climate change - Modeling as support for nature conservation management
(2016)
It is commonly recognized that soil moisture exhibits spatial heterogeneities occurring in a wide range of scales. These heterogeneities are caused by different factors ranging from soil structure at the plot scale to land use at the landscape scale. There is an urgent need for effi-cient approaches to deal with soil moisture heterogeneity at large scales, where manage-ment decisions are usually made. The aim of this dissertation was to test innovative ap-proaches for making efficient use of standard soil hydrological data in order to assess seep-age rates and main controls on observed hydrological behavior, including the role of soil het-erogeneities.
As a first step, the applicability of a simplified Buckingham-Darcy method to estimate deep seepage fluxes from point information of soil moisture dynamics was assessed. This was done in a numerical experiment considering a broad range of soil textures and textural het-erogeneities. The method performed well for most soil texture classes. However, in pure sand where seepage fluxes were dominated by heterogeneous flow fields it turned out to be not applicable, because it simply neglects the effect of water flow heterogeneity. In this study a need for new efficient approaches to handle heterogeneities in one-dimensional water flux models was identified.
As a further step, an approach to turn the problem of soil moisture heterogeneity into a solu-tion was presented: Principal component analysis was applied to make use of the variability among soil moisture time series for analyzing apparently complex soil hydrological systems. It can be used for identifying the main controls on the hydrological behavior, quantifying their relevance, and describing their particular effects by functional averaged time series. The ap-proach was firstly tested with soil moisture time series simulated for different texture classes in homogeneous and heterogeneous model domains. Afterwards, it was applied to 57 mois-ture time series measured in a multifactorial long term field experiment in Northeast Germa-ny.
The dimensionality of both data sets was rather low, because more than 85 % of the total moisture variance could already be explained by the hydrological input signal and by signal transformation with soil depth. The perspective of signal transformation, i.e. analyzing how hydrological input signals (e.g., rainfall, snow melt) propagate through the vadose zone, turned out to be a valuable supplement to the common mass flux considerations. Neither different textures nor spatial heterogeneities affected the general kind of signal transfor-mation showing that complex spatial structures do not necessarily evoke a complex hydro-logical behavior. In case of the field measured data another 3.6% of the total variance was unambiguously explained by different cropping systems. Additionally, it was shown that dif-ferent soil tillage practices did not affect the soil moisture dynamics at all.
The presented approach does not require a priori assumptions about the nature of physical processes, and it is not restricted to specific scales. Thus, it opens various possibilities to in-corporate the key information from monitoring data sets into the modeling exercise and thereby reduce model uncertainties.
Widespread landscape changes are presently observed in the Arctic and are most likely to
accelerate in the future, in particular in permafrost regions which are sensitive to climate warming. To assess current and future developments, it is crucial to understand past
environmental dynamics in these landscapes. Causes and interactions of environmental variability can hardly be resolved by instrumental records covering modern time scales. However, long-term
environmental variability is recorded in paleoenvironmental archives. Lake sediments are important archives that allow reconstruction of local limnogeological processes as well as past environmental changes driven directly or indirectly by climate dynamics. This study aims at
reconstructing Late Quaternary permafrost and thermokarst dynamics in central-eastern Beringia,
the terrestrial land mass connecting Eurasia and North America during glacial sea-level low stands. In order to investigate development, processes and influence of thermokarst dynamics, several sediment cores from extant lakes and drained lake basins were analyzed to answer the
following research questions:
1. When did permafrost degradation and thermokarst lake development take place and what were enhancing and inhibiting environmental factors?
2. What are the dominant processes during thermokarst lake development and how are
they reflected in proxy records?
3. How did, and still do, thermokarst dynamics contribute to the inventory and properties of organic matter in sediments and the carbon cycle?
Methods applied in this study are based upon a multi-proxy approach combining
sedimentological, geochemical, geochronological, and micropaleontological analyses, as well as
analyses of stable isotopes and hydrochemistry of pore-water and ice. Modern field observations of water quality and basin morphometrics complete the environmental investigations.
The investigated sediment cores reveal permafrost degradation and thermokarst dynamics on different time scales. The analysis of a sediment core from GG basin on the northern Seward
Peninsula (Alaska) shows prevalent terrestrial accumulation of yedoma throughout the Early to
Mid Wisconsin with intermediate wet conditions at around 44.5 to 41.5 ka BP. This first wetland
development was terminated by the accumulation of a 1-meter-thick airfall tephra most likely originating from the South Killeak Maar eruption at 42 ka BP. A depositional hiatus between 22.5 and 0.23 ka BP may indicate thermokarst lake formation in the surrounding of the site which forms a yedoma upland till today. The thermokarst lake forming GG basin initiated 230 ± 30 cal a
BP and drained in Spring 2005 AD. Four years after drainage the lake talik was still unfrozen below 268 cm depth.
A permafrost core from Mama Rhonda basin on the northern Seward Peninsula preserved a
full lacustrine record including several lake phases. The first lake generation developed at 11.8 cal ka BP during the Lateglacial-Early Holocene transition; its old basin (Grandma Rhonda) is still partially preserved at the southern margin of the study basin. Around 9.0 cal ka BP a shallow and more dynamic thermokarst lake developed with actively eroding shorelines and potentially intermediate shallow water or wetland phases (Mama Rhonda). Mama Rhonda lake drainage at 1.1 cal ka BP was followed by gradual accumulation of terrestrial peat and top-down refreezing of the lake talik. A significant lower organic carbon content was measured in Grandma Rhonda deposits (mean TOC of 2.5 wt%) than in Mama Rhonda deposits (mean TOC of 7.9 wt%) highlighting the impact of thermokarst dynamics on biogeochemical cycling in different lake generations by thawing and mobilization of organic carbon into the lake system.
Proximal and distal sediment cores from Peatball Lake on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska revealed young thermokarst dynamics since about 1,400 years along a depositional gradient based on reconstructions from shoreline expansion rates and absolute dating results. After its initiation as a remnant pond of a previous drained lake basin, a rapidly deepening lake with increasing oxygenation of the water column is evident from laminated sediments, and higher Fe/Ti and Fe/S ratios in the sediment. The sediment record archived characterizing shifts in depositional regimes and sediment sources from upland deposits and re-deposited sediments from drained thaw lake basins depending on the gradually changing shoreline configuration. These changes are evident from alternating organic inputs into the lake system which highlights the potential for thermokarst lakes to recycle old carbon from degrading permafrost deposits of its catchment.
The lake sediment record from Herschel Island in the Yukon (Canada) covers the full Holocene period. After its initiation as a thermokarst lake at 11.7 cal ka BP and intense thermokarst activity until 10.0 cal ka BP, the steady sedimentation was interrupted by a depositional hiatus at 1.6 cal ka BP which likely resulted from lake drainage or allochthonous slumping due to collapsing shore lines. The specific setting of the lake on a push moraine composed of marine deposits is reflected in the sedimentary record. Freshening of the maturing lake is indicated by decreasing electrical conductivity in pore-water. Alternation of marine to freshwater ostracods and foraminifera confirms decreasing salinity as well but also reflects episodical re-deposition of allochthonous marine sediments.
Based on permafrost and lacustrine sediment records, this thesis shows examples of the Late Quaternary evolution of typical Arctic permafrost landscapes in central-eastern Beringia and the complex interaction of local disturbance processes, regional environmental dynamics and global climate patterns. This study confirms that thermokarst lakes are important agents of organic matter recycling in complex and continuously changing landscapes.
Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.
The global carbon cycle is closely linked to Earth’s climate. In the context of continuously unchecked anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, the importance of natural CO₂ bond and carbon storage is increasing. An important biogenic mechanism of natural atmospheric CO₂ drawdown is the photosynthetic carbon fixation in plants and the subsequent longterm deposition of plant detritus in sediments.
The main objective of this thesis is to identify factors that control mobilization and transport of plant organic matter (pOM) through rivers towards sedimentation basins. I investigated this aspect in the eastern Nepalese Arun Valley. The trans-Himalayan Arun River is characterized by a strong elevation gradient (205 − 8848 m asl) that is accompanied by strong changes in ecology and climate ranging from wet tropical conditions in the Himalayan forelad to high alpine tundra on the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the Arun is an excellent natural laboratory, allowing the investigation of the effect of vegetation cover, climate, and topography on plant organic matter mobilization and export in tributaries along the gradient.
Based on hydrogen isotope measurements of plant waxes sampled along the Arun River and its tributaries, I first developed a model that allows for an indirect quantification of pOM contributed to the mainsetm by the Arun’s tributaries. In order to determine the role of climatic and topographic parameters of sampled tributary catchments, I looked for significant statistical relations between the amount of tributary pOM export and tributary characteristics (e.g. catchment size, plant cover, annual precipitation or runoff, topographic measures). On one hand, I demonstrated that pOMsourced from the Arun is not uniformly derived from its entire catchment area. On the other, I showed that dense vegetation is a necessary, but not sufficient, criterion for high tributary pOM export. Instead, I identified erosion and rainfall and runoff as key factors controlling pOM sourcing in the Arun Valley. This finding is supported by terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide concentrations measured on river sands along the Arun and its tributaries in order to quantify catchment wide denudation rates. Highest denudation rates corresponded well with maximum pOM mobilization and export also suggesting the link between erosion and pOM sourcing.
The second part of this thesis focusses on the applicability of stable isotope records such as plant wax n-alkanes in sediment archives as qualitative and quantitative proxy for the variability of past Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) strength. First, I determined how ISM strength affects the hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopic composition (reported as δD and δ18O values vs. Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water) of precipitation in the Arun Valley and if this amount effect (Dansgaard, 1964) is strong enough to be recorded in potential paleo-ISM isotope proxies. Second, I investigated if potential isotope records across the Arun catchment reflect ISM strength dependent precipitation δD values only, or if the ISM isotope signal is superimposed by winter precipitation or glacial melt. Furthermore, I tested if δD values of plant waxes in fluvial deposits reflect δD values of environmental waters in the respective catchments.
I showed that surface water δD values in the Arun Valley and precipitation δD from south of the Himalaya both changed similarly during two consecutive years (2011 & 2012) with distinct ISM rainfall amounts (~20% less in 2012). In order to evaluate the effect of other water sources (Winter-Westerly precipitation, glacial melt) and evapotranspiration in the Arun Valley, I analysed satellite remote sensing data of rainfall distribution (TRMM 3B42V7), snow cover (MODIS MOD10C1), glacial coverage (GLIMSdatabase, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space), and evapotranspiration (MODIS MOD16A2). In addition to the predominant ISM in the entire catchment I found through stable isotope analysis of surface waters indications for a considerable amount of glacial melt derived from high altitude tributaries and the Tibetan Plateau. Remotely sensed snow cover data revealed that the upper portion of the Arun also receives considerable winter precipitation, but the effect of snow melt on the Arun Valley hydrology could not be evaluated as it takes place in early summer, several months prior to our sampling campaigns. However, I infer that plant wax records and other potential stable isotope proxy archives below the snowline are well-suited for qualitative, and potentially quantitative, reconstructions of past changes of ISM strength.
The lakes in the Kenyan Rift Valley offer the unique opportunity to study a wide range of hydrochemical environmental conditions, ranging from freshwater to highly saline and alkaline lakes. Because little is known about the hydro- and biogeochemical conditions in the underlying lake sediments, it was the aim of this study to extend the already existing data sets with data from porewater and biomarker analyses. Additionally, reduced sulphur compounds and sulphate reduction rates in the sediment were determined. The new data was used to examine the anthropogenic and microbial influence on the lakes sediments as well as the influence of the water chemistry on the degradation and preservation of organic matter in the sediment column. The lakes discussed in this study are: Logipi, Eight (a small crater lake in the region of Kangirinyang), Baringo, Bogoria, Naivasha, Oloiden, and Sonachi.
The biomarker compositions were similar in all studied lake sediments; nevertheless, there were some differences between the saline and freshwater lakes. One of those differences is the occurrence of a molecule related to β-carotene, which was only found in the saline lakes. This molecule most likely originates from cyanobacteria, single-celled organisms which are commonly found in saline lakes. In the two freshwater lakes, stigmasterol, a sterol characteristic for freshwater algae, was found. In this study, it was shown that Lakes Bogoria and Sonachi can be used for environmental reconstructions with biomarkers, because the absence of oxygen at the lake bottoms slowed the degradation process. Other lakes, like for example Lake Naivasha, cannot be used for such reconstructions, because of the large anthropogenic influence. But the biomarkers proved to be a useful tool to study those anthropogenic influences. Additionally, it was observed that horizons with a high concentration of elemental sulphur can be used as temporal markers. Those horizons were deposited during times when the lake levels were very low. The sulphur was deposited by microorganisms which are capable of anoxygenic photosynthesis or sulphide oxidation.
The increase in atmospheric methane concentration, which is determined by an imbalance between its sources and sinks, has led to investigations of the methane cycle in various environments. Aquatic environments are of an exceptional interest due to their active involvement in methane cycling worldwide and in particular in areas sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, being connected with each other aquatic environments form networks that can be spread on vast areas involving marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. Thus, aquatic systems have a high potential to translate local or regional environmental and subsequently ecosystem changes to a bigger scale. Many studies neglect this connectivity and focus on individual aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems.
The current study focuses on environmental controls of the distribution and aerobic oxidation of methane at the example of two aquatic ecosystems. These ecosystems are Arctic fresh water bodies and the Elbe estuary which represent interfaces between freshwater-terrestrial and freshwater-marine environments, respectively.
Arctic water bodies are significant atmospheric sources of methane. At the same time the methane cycle in Arctic water bodies is strongly affected by the surrounding permafrost environment, which is characterized by high amounts of organic carbon. The results of this thesis indicate that the methane concentrations in Arctic lakes and streams substantially vary between each other being regulated by local landscape features (e.g. floodplain area) and the morphology of the water bodies (lakes, streams and river). The highest methane concentrations were detected in the lake outlets and in a floodplain lake complex. In contrast, the methane concentrations measured at different sites of the Lena River did not vary substantially. The lake complexes in comparison to the Lena River, thus, appear as more individual and heterogeneous systems with a pronounced imprint of the surrounding soil environment. Furthermore, connected with each other Arctic aquatic environments have a large potential to transport methane from methane-rich water bodies such as streams and floodplain lakes to aquatic environments relatively poor in methane such as the Lena River.
Estuaries represent hot spots of oceanic methane emissions. Also, estuaries are intermediate zones between methane-rich river water and methane depleted marine water. Substantiated through this thesis at the example of the Elbe estuary, the methane distribution in estuaries, however, cannot entirely be described by the conservative mixing model i.e. gradual decrease from the freshwater end-member to the marine water end-member. In addition to the methane-rich water from the Elbe River mouth substantial methane input occurs from tidal flats, areas of significant interaction between aquatic and terrestrial environments. Thus, this study demonstrates the complex interactions and their consequences for the methane distribution within estuaries. Also it reveals how important it is to investigate estuaries at larger spatial scales.
Methane oxidation (MOX) rates are commonly correlated with methane concentrations. This was shown in previous research studies and was substantiated by the present thesis. In detail, the highest MOX rates in the Arctic water bodies were detected in methane-rich streams and in the floodplain area while in the Elbe estuary the highest MOX rates were observed at the coastal stations. However, in these bordering environments, MOX rates are affected not only via the regulation through methane concentrations. The MOX rates in the Arctic lakes were shown to be also dependent on the abundance and community composition of methane-oxidising bacteria (MOB), that in turn are controlled by local landscape features (regardless of the methane concentrations) and by the transport of MOB between neighbouring environments. In the Elbe estuary, the MOX rates in addition to the methane concentrations are largely affected by the salinity, which is in turn regulated by the mixing of fresh- and marine waters. The magnitude of the salinity impact on MOX rates thereby depends on the MOB community composition and on the rate of the salinity change.
This study extends our knowledge of environmental controls of methane distribution and aerobic methane oxidation in aquatic environments. It also illustrates how important it is to investigate complex ecosystems rather than individual ecosystems to better understand the functioning of whole biomes.
The energy sector is both affected by climate change and a key sector for climate protection measures. Energy security is the backbone of our modern society and guarantees the functioning of most critical infrastructure. Thus, decision makers and energy suppliers of different countries should be familiar with the factors that increase or decrease the susceptibility of their electricity sector to climate change. Susceptibility means socioeconomic and structural characteristics of the electricity sector that affect the demand for and supply of electricity under climate change. Moreover, the relevant stakeholders are supposed to know whether the given national energy and climate targets are feasible and what needs to be done in order to meet these targets. In this regard, a focus should be on the residential building sector as it is one of the largest energy consumers and therefore emitters of anthropogenic CO 2 worldwide.
This dissertation addresses the first aspect, namely the susceptibility of the electricity sector, by developing a ranked index which allows for quantitative comparison of the electricity sector susceptibility of 21 European countries based on 14 influencing factors. Such a ranking has not been completed to date. We applied a sensitivity analysis to test the relative effect of each influencing factor on the susceptibility index ranking. We also discuss reasons for the ranking position and thus the susceptibility of selected countries. The second objective, namely the impact of climate change on the energy demand of buildings, is tackled by means of a new model with which the heating and cooling energy demand of residential buildings can be estimated. We exemplarily applied the model to Germany and the Netherlands. It considers projections of future changes in population, climate and the insulation standards of buildings, whereas most of the existing studies only take into account fewer than three different factors that influence the future energy demand of buildings. Furthermore, we developed a comprehensive retrofitting algorithm with which the total residential building stock can be modeled for the first time for each year in the past and future.
The study confirms that there is no correlation between the geographical location of a country and its position in the electricity sector susceptibility ranking. Moreover, we found no pronounced pattern of susceptibility influencing factors between countries that ranked higher or lower in the index. We illustrate that Luxembourg, Greece, Slovakia and Italy are the countries with the highest electricity sector susceptibility. The electricity sectors of Norway, the Czech Republic, Portugal and Denmark were found to be least susceptible to climate change. Knowledge about the most important factors for the poor and good ranking positions of these countries is crucial for finding adequate adaptation measures to reduce the susceptibility of the electricity sector. Therefore, these factors are described within this study.
We show that the heating energy demand of residential buildings will strongly decrease in both Germany and the Netherlands in the future. The analysis for the Netherlands focused on the regional level and a finer temporal resolution which revealed strong variations in the future heating energy demand changes by province and by month. In the German study, we additionally investigated the future cooling energy demand and could demonstrate that it will only slightly increase up to the middle of this century. Thus, increases in the cooling energy demand are not expected to offset reductions in heating energy demand. The main factor for substantial heating energy demand reductions is the retrofitting of buildings. We are the first to show that the given German and Dutch energy and climate targets in the building sector can only be met if the annual retrofitting rates are substantially increased. The current rate of only about 1 % of the total building stock per year is insufficient for reaching a nearly zero-energy demand of all residential buildings by the middle of this century. To reach this target, it would need to be at least tripled. To sum up, this thesis emphasizes that country-specific characteristics are decisive for the electricity sector susceptibility of European countries. It also shows for different scenarios how much energy is needed in the future to heat and cool residential buildings. With this information, existing climate mitigation and adaptation measures can be justified or new actions encouraged.
Earthquakes deform Earth's surface, building long-lasting topographic features and contributing to landscape and mountain formation.
However, seismic waves produced by earthquakes may also destabilize hillslopes, leading to large amounts of soil and bedrock moving downslope. Moreover, static deformation and shaking are suspected to damage the surface bedrock and therefore alter its future properties, affecting hydrological and erosional dynamics. Thus, earthquakes participate both in mountain building and stimulate directly or indirectly their erosion. Moreover, the impact of earthquakes on hillslopes has important implications for the amount of sediment and organic matter delivered to rivers, and ultimately to oceans, during episodic catastrophic seismic crises, the magnitude of life and property losses associated with landsliding, the perturbation and recovery of landscape properties after shaking, and the long term topographic evolution of mountain belts. Several of these aspects have been addressed recently through individual case studies but additional data compilation as well as theoretical or numerical modelling are required to tackle these issues in a more systematic and rigorous manner.
This dissertation combines data compilation of earthquake characteristics, landslide mapping, and seismological data interpretation with physically-based modeling in order to address how earthquakes impact on erosional processes and landscape evolution. Over short time scales (10-100 s) and intermediate length scales (10 km), I have attempted to improve our understanding and ability to predict the amount of landslide debris triggered by seismic shaking in epicentral areas. Over long time scales (1-100 ky) and across a mountain belt (100 km) I have modeled the competition between erosional unloading and building of topography associated with earthquakes. Finally, over intermediate time scales (1-10 y) and at the hillslope scale (0.1-1 km) I have collected geomorphological and seismological data that highlight persistent effects of earthquakes on landscape properties and behaviour.
First, I compiled a database on earthquakes that produced significant landsliding, including an estimate of the total landslide volume and area, and earthquake characteristics such as seismic moment and source depth. A key issue is the accurate conversion of landslide maps into volume estimates. Therefore I also estimated how amalgamation - when mapping errors lead to the bundling of multiple landslide into a single polygon - affects volume estimates from various earthquake-induced landslide inventories and developed an algorithm to automatically detect this artifact. The database was used to test a physically-based prediction of the total landslide area and volume caused by earthquakes, based on seismological scaling relationships and a statistical description of the landscape properties. The model outperforms empirical fits in accuracy, with 25 out of 40 cases well predicted, and allows interpretation of many outliers in physical terms. Apart from seismological complexities neglected by the model I found that exceptional rock strength properties or antecedent conditions may explain most outliers.
Second, I assessed the geomorphic effects of large earthquakes on landscape dynamics by surveying the temporal evolution of precipitation-normalized landslide rate. I found strongly elevated landslide rates following earthquakes that progressively recover over 1 to 4 years, indicating that regolith strength drops and recovers. The relaxation is clearly non-linear for at least one case, and does not seem to correlate with coseismic landslide reactivation, water table level increase or tree root-system recovery. I suggested that shallow bedrock is damaged by the earthquake and then heals on annual timescales. Such variations in ground strength must be translated into shallow subsurface seismic velocities that are increasingly surveyed with ambient seismic noise correlations. With seismic noise autocorrelation I computed the seismic velocity in the epicentral areas of three earthquakes where I constrained a change in landslide rate. We found similar recovery dynamics and timescales, suggesting that seismic noise correlation techniques could be further developed to meaningfully assess ground strength variations for landscape dynamics. These two measurements are also in good agreement with the temporal dynamics of post-seismic surface displacement measured by GPS. This correlation suggests that the surface healing mechanism may be driven by tectonic deformation, and that the surface regolith and fractured bedrock may behave as a granular media that slowly compacts as it is sheared or vibrated.
Last, I compared our model of earthquake-induced landsliding with a standard formulation of surface deformation caused by earthquakes to understand which parameters govern the competition between the building and destruction of topography caused by earthquakes. In contrast with previous studies I found that very large (Mw>8) earthquakes always increase the average topography, whereas only intermediate (Mw ~ 7) earthquakes in steep landscapes may reduce topography. Moreover, I illustrated how the net effect of earthquakes varies with depth or landscape steepness implying a complex and ambivalent role through the life of a mountain belt. Further I showed that faults producing a Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes, will limit topography over a larger range of fault sizes than faults producing repeated earthquakes with a characteristic size.
This thesis presents new approaches of SAR methods and their application to tectonically active systems and related surface deformation. With 3 publications two case studies are presented:
(1) The coseismic deformation related to the Nura earthquake (5th October 2008, magnitude Mw 6.6) at the eastern termination of the intramontane Alai valley. Located between the southern Tien Shan and the northern Pamir the coseismic surface displacements are analysed using SAR (Synthetic Aperture RADAR) data. The results show clear gradients in the vertical and horizontal directions along a complex pattern of surface ruptures and active faults. To integrate and to interpret these observations in the context of the regional active tectonics a SAR data analysis is complemented with seismological data and geological field observations. The main moment release of the Nura earthquake appears to be on the Pamir Frontal thrust, while the main surface displacements and surface rupture occurred in the footwall and along of the NE–SW striking Irkeshtam fault. With InSAR data from ascending and descending satellite tracks along with pixel offset measurements the Nura earthquake source is modelled as a segmented rupture. One fault segment corresponds to high-angle brittle faulting at the Pamir Frontal thrust and two more fault segments show moderate-angle and low-friction thrusting at the Irkeshtam fault. The integrated analysis of the coseismic deformation argues for a rupture segmentation and strain partitioning associated to the earthquake. It possibly activated an orogenic wedge in the easternmost segment of the Pamir-Alai collision zone. Further, the style of the segmentation may be associated with the presence of Paleogene evaporites.
(2) The second focus is put on slope instabilities and consequent landslides in the area of prominent topographic transition between the Fergana basin and high-relief Alai range. The Alai range constitutes an active orogenic wedge of the Pamir – Tien Shan collision zone that described as a progressively northward propagating fold-and-thrust belt. The interferometric analysis of ALOS/PALSAR radar data integrates a period of 4 years (2007-2010) based on the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time-series technique to assess surface deformation with millimeter surface change accuracy. 118 interferograms are analyzed to observe spatially-continuous movements with downslope velocities up to 71 mm/yr. The obtained rates indicate slow movement of the deep-seated landslides during the observation time. We correlated these movements with precipitation and seismic records. The results suggest that the deformation peaks correlate with rainfall in the 3 preceding months and with one earthquake event. In the next step, to understand the spatial pattern of landslide processes, the tectonic morphologic and lithologic settings are combined with the patterns of surface deformation. We demonstrate that the lithological and tectonic structural patterns are the main controlling factors for landslide occurrence and surface deformation magnitudes. Furthermore active contractional deformation in the front of the orogenic wedge is the main mechanism to sustain relief. Some of the slower but continuously moving slope instabilities are directly related to tectonically active faults and unconsolidated young Quaternary syn-orogenic sedimentary sequences. The InSAR observed slow moving landslides represent active deep-seated gravitational slope deformation phenomena which is first time observed in the Tien Shan mountains. Our approach offers a new combination of InSAR techniques and tectonic aspects to localize and understand enhanced slope instabilities in tectonically active mountain fronts in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan.
In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in Central Europe, especially in Germany. This paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data and how well data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international levels. In accordance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), impacts on human health, economic activities (and assets), cultural heritage and the environment are described on the national and sub-national scale. Information from governmental reports is complemented by communications on traffic disruptions and surveys of flood-affected residents and companies.
Overall, the impacts of the flood event in 2013 were manifold. The study reveals that flood-affected residents suffered from a large range of impacts, among which mental health and supply problems were perceived more seriously than financial losses. The most frequent damage type among affected companies was business interruption. This demonstrates that the current scientific focus on direct (financial) damage is insufficient to describe the overall impacts and severity of flood events.
The case further demonstrates that procedures and standards for impact data collection in Germany are widely missing. Present impact data in Germany are fragmentary, heterogeneous, incomplete and difficult to access. In order to fulfil, for example, the monitoring and reporting requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 that was adopted in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, more efforts on impact data collection are needed.
In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in Central Europe, especially in Germany. This paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data and how well data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international levels. In accordance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), impacts on human health, economic activities (and assets), cultural heritage and the environment are described on the national and sub-national scale. Information from governmental reports is complemented by communications on traffic disruptions and surveys of flood-affected residents and companies.
Overall, the impacts of the flood event in 2013 were manifold. The study reveals that flood-affected residents suffered from a large range of impacts, among which mental health and supply problems were perceived more seriously than financial losses. The most frequent damage type among affected companies was business interruption. This demonstrates that the current scientific focus on direct (financial) damage is insufficient to describe the overall impacts and severity of flood events.
The case further demonstrates that procedures and standards for impact data collection in Germany are widely missing. Present impact data in Germany are fragmentary, heterogeneous, incomplete and difficult to access. In order to fulfil, for example, the monitoring and reporting requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 that was adopted in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, more efforts on impact data collection are needed.
Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia's soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes.