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Intraplate earthquakes pose a significant seismic hazard in densely populated rift systems like the Lower Rhine Graben in Central Europe. While the locations of most faults in this region are well known, constraints on their seismogenic potential and earthquake recurrence are limited. In particular, the Holocene deformation history of active faults remains enigmatic. In an exposure excavated across the Schafberg fault in the southwestern Lower Rhine Graben, south of Untermaubach, in the epicentral region of the 1756 Duren earthquake (M (L) 6.2), we mapped a complex deformation zone in Holocene fluvial sediments. We document evidence for at least one paleoearthquake that resulted in vertical surface displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.2 m. The most recent earthquake is constrained to have occurred after 815 AD, and we have modeled three possible earthquake scenarios constraining the timing of the latest event. Coseismic deformation is characterized by vertical offset of sedimentary contacts distributed over a 10-m-wide central damage zone. Faults were identified where they fracture and offset pebbles in the vertically displaced gravel layers and fracture orientation is consistent with the orientation of the Schafberg fault. This study provides the first constraint on the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake on the Schafberg fault. We cannot rule out that this fault acted as the source of the 1756 Duren earthquake. Our study emphasizes the importance of, and the need for, paleoseismic studies in this and other intracontinental regions, in particular on faults with subtle geomorphic expression that would not typically be recognized as being potentially seismically active. Our study documents textural features in unconsolidated sediment that formed in response to coseismic rupturing of the underlying bedrock fault. We suggest that these features, e.g., abundant oriented transgranular fractures in their context, should be added to the list of criteria used to identify a fault as potentially active. Such information would result in an increase of the number of potentially active faults that contribute to seismic hazards of intracontinental regions.
Central Anatolia is a low-relief, high-elevation region where decadal-scale deformation rates estimated from space geodesy suggest low strain rates within a stiff microplate. However, numerous Quaternary faults have been mapped within this low-strain region and estimating their slip rate and seismic potential is important for hazard assessments in an area of increasing infrastructural development. Here we focus on the Sultanhani Fault (SF), which constitutes an integral part of the Eskisehir-Cihanbeyli Fault System, and use deformed maximum highstand shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya to estimate tectonic slip rates at millennial scale. Some of these shorelines were previously interpreted as fault scarps, but we provide conclusive evidence for their erosional origin. We found that shoreline-angle elevations estimated from differential GPS profiles record vertical displacements of 10.2 m across the SF. New radiocarbon ages of lacustrine molluscs suggest 22.4 m of relative lake-level fall between 22.1 +/- 0.3 and 21.7 +/- 0.4 cal. kaBP, constraining the timing of abrupt abandonment of the highstand shoreline. Models of lithospheric rebound associated with regressions of the Tuz Golu and Konya palaeolakes predict only similar to 1 m of regional-scale uplift across the Konya Basin. Dislocation models of displaced shorelines suggest fault-slip rates of 1.5 and 1.8 mm yr(-1) for planar and listric fault geometries, respectively, providing reasonable results for the latter. We found fault scarps in the Nasuhpinar mudflat that likely represent the most recent ground-breaking rupture of the SF, with an average vertical displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.5 m estimated from 54 topographic profiles, equivalent to a M similar to 6.5-6.9 earthquake based on empirical scaling laws. If such events were characteristic during the ultimate 21 ka, a relatively short recurrence time of similar to 800-900 yr would be needed to account for the millennial slip rate. Alternatively, the fault scarp at Nasuhpinar might represent a larger earthquake requiring more frequent smaller events to account for the millennial rate. The relatively fast slip rate of the SF over the past 21 ka is unlikely to have persisted over longer timescales and might reflect spatiotemporal variations in deformation rates within kinematically-linked fault systems within Central Anatolia, or a transient perturbation to the local stress field or fault strength. Such perturbation might have been related to climatically controlled changes in surface and near-surface loads and by interactions among the different tectonic processes that have been proposed to drive the overall slow uplift and associated extension in the Central Anatolian Plateau.