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- suture zones (1)
- synthetic hydrate samples (1)
- synthetische Hydratproben (1)
- tabular mining (1)
- target (1)
- tectonic reconstruction (1)
- tectonics (1)
- terrain map (1)
- terrestrial ecosystems (1)
- thermo-mechanics (1)
- thermochemical mantle convection (1)
- thermochemical modeling (1)
- thermochemischer Mantelkonvektion (1)
- thermochronology (1)
- thrust tectonics (1)
- time series analysis (1)
- transient earthquake patterns (1)
- transiente Erdbebenmuster (1)
- travel time distribution (1)
- treeline (1)
- trend analysis (1)
- trend detection (1)
- triggered earthquake (1)
- tropical lowland rainforest (1)
- tsunami (1)
- uncertainty estimation (1)
- underplating (1)
- varves (1)
- vegetation (1)
- vegetation cover (1)
- vegetation expansion (1)
- very low-low-grade metamorphism (1)
- volcanic glass (1)
- volcanic island (1)
- vulkanischer Gläser (1)
- water quality (1)
- waves and tides (1)
- wetlands (1)
- zircon fission tracks (1)
- Ökohydrologie (1)
Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (256) (remove)
Flow phenomena in the unsaturated zone are highly variable in time and space. Thus, it is challenging to measure and monitor such processes under field conditions. Here, we present a new setup and interpretation approach for combining a dye tracer experiment with a 4D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey. Therefore, we designed a rainfall experiment during which we measured three surface-based 3D GPR surveys using a pair of 500 MHz antennas. Such a survey setup requires accurate acquisition and processing techniquesto extract time-lapse information supporting the interpretation of selected cross-sections photographed after excavating the site. Our results reveal patterns of traveltime changes in the measured GPR data, which are associated with soil moisture changes. As distinct horizons are present at our site, such changes can be quantified and transferred into changes in total soil moisture content. Our soil moisture estimates are similar to the amount of infiltrated water, which confirms our experimental approach and makes us confident for further developing this strategy, especially, with respect to improving the temporal and spatial resolution. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Timing and magnitude of surface uplift are key to understanding the impact of crustal deformation and topographic growth on atmospheric circulation, environmental conditions, and surface processes. Uplift of the East African Plateau is linked to mantle processes, but paleoaltimetry data are too scarce to constrain plateau evolution and subsequent vertical motions associated with rifting. Here, we assess the paleotopographic implications of a beaked whale fossil (Ziphiidae) from the Turkana region of Kenya found 740 km inland from the present-day coastline of the Indian Ocean at an elevation of 620 m. The specimen is similar to 17 My old and represents the oldest derived beaked whale known, consistent with molecular estimates of the emergence of modern straptoothed whales (Mesoplodon). The whale traveled from the Indian Ocean inland along an eastward-directed drainage system controlled by the Cretaceous Anza Graben and was stranded slightly above sea level. Surface uplift from near sea level coincides with paleoclimatic change from a humid environment to highly variable and much drier conditions, which altered biotic communities and drove evolution in east Africa, including that of primates.
Land-use concepts provide decision support for the most efficient usage options according to sustainable development and multifunctionality requirements. However, developments in landscape-related, agricultural production schemes are primarily driven by economic benefits. Therefore, most agricultural land-use concepts tackle particular problems or interests and lack a systemic perspective. As a result, we discuss a conceptual model for future site-specific agricultural land-use with an inbuilt requirement for adequate experimental sites to enable monitoring systems for a new generation of ecosystem models and for new approaches to address science-stakeholder interactions.
In this study we investigate a dayside, midlatitude plasma depletion (DMLPD) encountered on 22 May 2014 by the Swarm and GRACE satellites, as well as ground-based instruments. The DMLPD was observed near Puerto Rico by Swarm near 10 LT under quiet geomagnetic conditions at altitudes of 475-520 km and magnetic latitudes of similar to 25 degrees-30 degrees. The DMLPD was also revealed in total electron content observations by the Saint Croix station and by the GRACE satellites (430 km) near 16 LT and near the same geographic location. The unique Swarm constellation enables the horizontal tilt of the DMLPD to be measured (35 degrees clockwise from the geomagnetic east-west direction). Ground-based airglow images at Arecibo showed no evidence for plasma density depletions during the night prior to this dayside event. The C/NOFS equatorial satellite showed evidence for very modest plasma density depletions that had rotated into the morningside from nightside. However, the equatorial depletions do not appear related to the DMLPD, for which the magnetic apex height is about 2500 km. The origins of the DMLPD are unknown, but may be related to gravity waves.
We present an experimental approach to study the three-dimensional microstructure of gas diffusion layer (GDL) materials under realistic compression conditions. A dedicated compression device was designed that allows for synchrotron-tomographic investigation of circular samples under well-defined compression conditions. The tomographic data provide the experimental basis for stochastic modeling of nonwoven GDL materials. A plain compression tool is used to study the fiber courses in the material at different compression stages. Transport relevant geometrical parameters, such as porosity, pore size, and tortuosity distributions, are exemplarily evaluated for a GDL sample in the uncompressed state and for a compression of 30 vol.%. To mimic the geometry of the flow-field, we employed a compression punch with an integrated channel-rib-profile. It turned out that the GDL material is homogeneously compressed under the ribs, however, much less compressed underneath the channel. GDL fibers extend far into the channel volume where they might interfere with the convective gas transport and the removal of liquid water from the cell. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.
The application of nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) for subsurface remediation of groundwater contaminants is a promising new technology, which can be understood as alternative to the permeable reactive barrier technique using granular iron. Dechlorination of organic contaminants by zero-valent iron seems promising. Currently, one limitation to widespread deployment is the fast agglomeration and sedimentation of nZVI in colloidal suspensions, even more so when in soils and sediments, which limits the applicability for the treatment of sources and plumes of contamination. Colloid-supported nZVI shows promising characteristics to overcome these limitations. Mobility of Carbo-Iron Colloids (CIC) - a newly developed composite material based on finely ground activated carbon as a carrier for nZVI - was tested in a field application: In this study, a horizontal dipole flow field was established between two wells separated by 53 m in a confined, natural aquifer. The injection/extraction rate was 500 L/h. Approximately 12 kg of CIC was suspended with the polyanionic stabilizer carboxymethyl cellulose. The suspension was introduced into the aquifer at the injection well. Breakthrough of CIC was observed visually and based on total particle and iron concentrations detected in samples from the extraction well. Filtration of water samples revealed a particle breakthrough of about 12% of the amount introduced. This demonstrates high mobility of CIC particles and we suggest that nZVI carried on CIC can be used for contaminant plume remediation by in-situ formation of reactive barriers. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Computer-based simulation models are frequently used in hydrological research and engineering but also in other fields of environmental sciences. New case studies often require existing model concepts to be adapted. Extensions may be necessary due to the peculiarities of the studied natural system or subtleties of anthropogenic control. In other cases, simplifications must be made in response to scarce data, incomplete knowledge, or restrictions set by the spatio-temporal scale of application. This paper introduces an open-source modeling framework called ECHSE designed to cope with the above-mentioned challenges. It provides a lightweight infrastructure for the rapid development of new, reusable simulation tools and, more importantly, the safe modification of existing formulations. ECHSE-based models treat the simulated system as a collection of interacting objects. Although feedbacks are generally supported, the majority of the objects' interactions is expected to be of the feed-forward type. Therefore, the ECHSE software is particularly useful in the context of hydrological catchment modeling. Conversely, it is unsuitable, e.g., for fully hydrodynamic simulations and groundwater flow modeling. The focus of the paper is put on a comprehensible outline of the ECHSE's fundamental concepts and limitations. For the purpose of illustration, a specific, ECHSE-based solution for hydrological catchment modeling is presented which has undergone testing in a number of river basins. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cosmogenic nuclides are typically used to either constrain an exposure age, a burial age, or an erosion rate. Constraining the landscape history and past erosion rates in previously glaciated terrains is, however, notoriously difficult because it involves a large number of unknowns. The potential use of cosmogenic nuclides in landscapes with a complex history of exposure and erosion is therefore often quite limited. Here, we present a novel multi-nuclide approach to study the landscape evolution and past erosion rates in terrains with a complex exposure history, particularly focusing on regions that were repeatedly covered by glaciers or ice sheets during the Quaternary. The approach, based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, focuses on mapping the range of landscape histories that are consistent with a given set of measured cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. A fundamental assumption of the model approach is that the exposure history at the site/location can be divided into two distinct regimes: i) interglacial periods characterized by zero shielding due to overlying ice and a uniform interglacial erosion rate, and ii) glacial periods characterized by 100% shielding and a uniform glacial erosion rate. We incorporate the exposure history in the model framework by applying a threshold value to the global marine benthic delta O-18 record and include the threshold value as a free model parameter, hereby taking into account global changes in climate. However, any available information on the glacial-interglacial history at the sampling location, in particular the timing of the last deglaciation event, is readily incorporated in the model to constrain the inverse problem. Based on the MCMC technique, the model delineates the most likely exposure history, including the glacial and interglacial erosion rates, which, in turn, makes it possible to reconstruct an exhumation history at the site. We apply the model to two landscape scenarios based on synthetic data and two landscape scenarios based on paired Be-10/Al-26 data from West Greenland, which makes it possible to quantify the denudation rate at these locations. The model framework, which currently incorporates any combination of the following nuclides Be-10, Al-26, C-14, and Ne-21, is highly flexible and can be adapted to many different landscape settings. The model framework may also be used in combination with physics-based landscape evolution models to predict nuclide concentrations at different locations in the landscape. This may help validate the landscape models via comparison to measured nuclide concentrations or to devise new effective sampling strategies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Stream restoration aims at an enhancement of ecological habitats, an increase of water retention within a landscape and sometimes even at an improvement of biogeochemical functions of lotic ecosystems. For the latter, good exchange between groundwater and stream water is often considered to be of major importance. In this study hydraulic connectivity between river and aquifer was investigated for a four years period, covering the restoration of an old oxbow after the second year. The oxbow became reconnected to the stream and the clogging layer in the oxbow was excavated. We expected increasing hydraulic connectivity between oxbow and aquifer after restoration of the stream, and decreasing hydraulic connectivity for the former shortcut due to increased clogging. To test that hypothesis, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupled groundwater-stream water system before and after the restoration were analysed by principal component analyses of time series of groundwater heads and stream water levels. The first component depicted between 53% and 70% of the total variance in the dataset for the different years. It captured the propagation of the pressure signal induced by stream water level fluctuations throughout the adjacent aquifer. Thus it could be used as a measure of hydraulic connectivity between stream and aquifer. During the first year, the impact of stream water level fluctuations decreased with distance from the regulated river (shortcut), whereas the hydraulic connection of the oxbow to the adjacent aquifer was very low. After restoration of the stream we observed a slight but not significant increase of hydraulic connectivity in the oxbow in the second year after restoration, but no change for the former shortcut. There is some evidence that the pattern of hydraulic connectivity at the study site is by far more determined by the natural heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivities of the floodplain sediments and the initial construction of the shortcut rather than by the clogging layer in the oxbow. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour.
We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate).
Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case.
At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) based on radiolarian assemblage changes are estimated for the last 160 kyr, from a sediment core (Y9) recovered from Pukaki Saddle, northeast of Campbell Plateau. Site Y9 lies beneath Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) immediately to the north of the Subantarctic Front (SAF), which in this region is bathymetrically constrained by the edges of Campbell Plateau and defines the northern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Radiolarian assemblages are characterised by an exceptionally high abundance of the Antarctic to subantarctic species Antarctissa spp. (up to 68%), especially during glacial intervals. SST estimates are derived using Factor Analysis and the Modern Analog Technique. Both methods capture the glacial-interglacial (G-I) pattern. The SST reconstructions show the changing relative influence of distinct water masses during the past G-I cycle, with major temperature variations of the order of 7-9 degrees C at glacial Terminations. Glacials (marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2) are associated with particularly cool SSTs that are indicative of a more vigorous SAF/ACC and an enhancement of the inflow through Pukaki Saddle and/or frequent development of cold-core eddies at the SAF. By contrast, the influence of warmer waters and relaxation of the ACC during interglacials can be inferred from temperatures slightly warmer (e.g., mid-Holocene) and/or comparable to present day (e.g., MIS 5e). During these intervals, relatively warmer temperatures most likely indicate a higher warmcore eddy activity due to a strengthened Subtropical Front and/or a weakened inflow of cool water through Pukaki Saddle and/or an increased stratification in the Campbell Plateau region. Furthermore, the SST record is characterised by an abrupt warming at ca. 10 kyr (i.e., Termination l), the occurrence of a reversal at Termination I, and a warming event at the end of MIS 4, coinciding with the A4 event in the Byrd ice core. These characteristics, together with the pronounced G-I cycle shown by the SST estimates, suggest that Site Y9 is influenced by major oceanographic changes in the SW Pacific and responds to thermal changes at high southern latitudes. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We propose a RAndom Interacting Network (RAIN) model to study the interactions between a pair of complex networks. The model involves two major steps: (i) the selection of a pair of nodes, one from each network, based on intra-network node-based characteristics, and (ii) the placement of a link between selected nodes based on the similarity of their relative importance in their respective networks. Node selection is based on a selection fitness function and node linkage is based on a linkage probability defined on the linkage scores of nodes. The model allows us to relate within-network characteristics to between-network structure. We apply the model to the interaction between the USA and Schengen airline transportation networks (ATNs). Our results indicate that two mechanisms: degree-based preferential node selection and degree-assortative link placement are necessary to replicate the observed inter-network degree distributions as well as the observed inter-network assortativity. The RAIN model offers the possibility to test multiple hypotheses regarding the mechanisms underlying network interactions. It can also incorporate complex interaction topologies. Furthermore, the framework of the RAIN model is general and can be potentially adapted to various real-world complex systems.
Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepares for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning and private damage reduction, e.g. via building precautionary measures, and disaster response. However, knowledge about damage-reducing measures is scarce and often fragmented since based on case studies. For instance, it is believed that private precautionary measures, like shielding with water shutters or building fortification, are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels. However, some of these measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during the extreme flood event in 2002 in Germany. This review analyses potentials of land-use planning and private flood precautionary measures as components of adaptation strategies for global change. Focus is on their implementation, their damage-reducing effects and their potential contribution to address projected changes in flood risk, particularly in developed countries.
Cosmic-Ray neutron sensing (CRS) is a unique approach to measure soil moisture at field scale filling the gap of current methodologies. However, CRS signal is affected by all the hydrogen pools on the land surface and understanding their relative importance plays an important role for the application of the method e.g., validation of remote sensing products and data assimilation. In this study, a soil moisture scaling approach is proposed to estimate directly the correct CRS soil moisture based on the soil moisture profile measured at least in one position within the field. The approach has the advantage to avoid the need to introduce one correction for each hydrogen contribution and to estimate indirectly all the related time-varying hydrogen pools. Based on the data collected in three crop seasons, the scaling approach shows its ability to identify and to quantify the seasonal biomass water equivalent. Additionally, the analysis conducted at sub-daily time resolution is able to quantify the daily vertical redistribution of the water biomass and the rainfall interception, showing promising applications of the CRS method also for these types of measurements. Overall, the study underlines how not only soil moisture but all the specific hydrological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum should be considered for a proper evaluation of the CRS signal. For this scope, the scaling approach reveals to be a simple and pragmatic analysis that can be easily extended to other experimental sites. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa
(2015)
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.
Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation.
We herein reappraise the pressure-temperature (PT) evolution of the high-pressure and low-temperature (HP-LT) Tavsanli zone (western Turkey) in order to (i) better characterize rock units exhumed along a cooling subduction interface, from birth to steady state and (ii) constrain exhumation and detachment dynamics, as well as mechanical coupling between plates. Based on PT estimates and field observations three oceanic complexes are recognized between the HP-LT continental margin and the obducted ophiolite, with PT estimates ranging from incipient metamorphism to blueschist-fades conditions. PT conditions for the continental unit are reappraised to 24 kbar and similar to 500 degrees C on the basis of pseudosection modelling and Raman spectroscopy on carbonaceous material. A tentative reconstruction of the subduction zone evolution is proposed using available radiometric and palaeogeographic data and recent thermomechanical modelling. Both PT conditions and field observations point out to the slicing of km-sized units at different preferred depths along the subduction interface, thus providing constraints on the dynamics of accretion and underplating. In particular, the comparison of PT estimates for the Tavsanli zone and for other broadly similar fossil subduction settings (i.e., Oman, Corsica, New Caledonia, Franciscan, Schistes Lustres) suggests that units are detached preferentially from the slab at specific depths of 30-40 km (i.e., downdip of the seismogenic zone) and similar to 80 km. We propose that these depths are controlled by major changes in mechanical coupling along the plate interface, whereas exhumation through time would rather be controlled by large-scale geodynamic boundary conditions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
After the flood in 2002, the level of private precautions taken increased considerably. One contributing factor is the fact that, in general, a larger proportion of people knew that they were at risk of flooding. The best level of precaution was found before the flood events in 2006 and 2011. The main reason for this might be that residents had more experience with flooding than residents affected in 2005 or 2010. Yet, overall, flood experience and knowledge did not necessarily result in building retrofitting or flood-proofing measures, which are considered as mitigating damages most effectively. Hence, investments still need to be stimulated in order to reduce future damage more efficiently.
Given the range of geological conditions under which airborne EM surveys are conducted, there is an expectation that the 2D and 3D methods used to extract models that are geologically meaningful would be favoured over ID inversion and transforms. We do after all deal with an Earth that constantly undergoes, faulting, intrusions, and erosive processes that yield a subsurface morphology, which is, for most parts, dissimilar to a horizontal layered earth.
We analyse data from a survey collected in the Musgrave province, South Australia. It is of particular interest since it has been used for mineral prospecting and for a regional hydro-geological assessment. The survey comprises abrupt lateral variations, more-subtle lateral continuous sedimentary sequences and filled palaeovalleys. As consequence, we deal with several geophysical targets of contrasting conductivities, varying geometries and at different depths. We invert the observations by using several algorithms characterised by the different dimensionality of the forward operator.
Inversion of airborne EM data is known to be an ill-posed problem. We can generate a variety of models that numerically adequately fit the measured data, which makes the solution non-unique. The application of different deterministic inversion codes or transforms to the same dataset can give dissimilar results, as shown in this paper. This ambiguity suggests the choice of processes and algorithms used to interpret AEM data cannot be resolved as a matter of personal choice and preference.
The degree to which models generated by a ID algorithm replicate/or not measured data, can be an indicator of the data's dimensionality, which perse does not imply that data that can be fitted with a 1D model cannot be multidimensional. On the other hand, it is crucial that codes that can generate 2D and 3D models do reproduce the measured data in order for them to be considered as a plausible solution. In the absence of ancillary information, it could be argued that the simplest model with the simplest physics might be preferred.
Geodetic and seismologic studies support a tectonic model for the central Himalaya wherein similar to 2 cm/yr of Indo-Asian convergence is accommodated along the primary decollement under the range, the Main Himalayan thrust. A steeper midcrustal ramp in the Main Himalayan thrust is commonly invoked as driving rapid rock uplift along a range-parallel band in the Greater Himalaya. This tectonic model, developed primarily from studies in central Nepal, is commonly assumed to project along strike with little lateral variation in Main Himalayan thrust geometry or associated rock uplift patterns. Here, we synthesize multiple lines of evidence for a major discontinuity in the Main Himalayan thrust in western Nepal. Analysis of topography and seismicity indicates that west of similar to 82.5 degrees E, the single band of steep topography and seismicity along the Main Himalayan thrust ramp in central Nepal bifurcates around a high-elevation, low-relief landscape, resulting in a two-step topographic front along an similar to 150 km segment of the central Himalaya. Although multiple models could explain this bifurcation, the full suite of data appears to be most consistent with a northward bend to the Main Himalayan thrust ramp and activation of a young duplex horse to the south. This poorly documented segmentation of the Main Himalayan thrust has important implications for the seismogenic potential of the western Nepal seismic gap and for models of the ongoing evolution of the orogen.
This study focuses on evaluating the potential of ALOS/PALSAR time-series data to analyze the activation of deep-seated landslides in the foothill zone of the high mountain Alai range in the southern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan). Most previous field-based landslide investigations have revealed that many landslides have indicators for ongoing slow movements in the form of migrating and newly developing cracks. L-band ALOS/PALSAR data for the period between 2007 and 2010 are available for the 484 km(2) area in this study. We analyzed these data using the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time-series technique to assess the surface deformation related to the activation of landslides. We observed up to +/- 17 mm/year of LOS velocity deformation rates, which were projected along the local steepest slope and resulted in velocity rates of up to -63 mm/year. The obtained rates indicate very slow movement of the deep-seated landslides during the observation time. We also compared these movements with precipitation and earthquake records. The results suggest that the deformation peaks correlate with rainfall in the 3 preceding months and with an earthquake event. Overall, the results of this study indicated the great potential of L-band InSAR time series analysis for efficient spatiotemporal identification and monitoring of slope activations in this region of high landslide activity in Southern Kyrgyzstan.
Inventories of individually delineated landslides are a key to understanding landslide physics and mitigating their impact. They permit assessment of area-frequency distributions and landslide volumes, and testing of statistical correlations between landslides and physical parameters such as topographic gradient or seismic strong motion. Amalgamation, i.e. the mapping of several adjacent landslides as a single polygon, can lead to potentially severe distortion of the statistics of these inventories. This problem can be especially severe in data sets produced by automated mapping. We present five inventories of earthquake-induced landslides mapped with different materials and techniques and affected by varying degrees of amalgamation. Errors on the total landslide volume and power-law exponent of the area-frequency distribution, resulting from amalgamation, may be up to 200 and 50 %, respectively. We present an algorithm based on image and digital elevation model (DEM) analysis, for automatic identification of amalgamated polygons. On a set of about 2000 polygons larger than 1000 m(2), tracing landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the algorithm performs well, with only 2.7-3.6% incorrectly amalgamated landslides missed and 3.9-4.8% correct polygons incorrectly identified as amalgams. This algorithm can be used broadly to check landslide inventories and allow faster correction by automating the identification of amalgamation.
In a recent BAMS article, it is argued that community-based Open Source Software (OSS) could foster scientific progress in weather radar research, and make weather radar software more affordable, flexible, transparent, sustainable, and interoperable.Nevertheless, it can be challenging for potential developers and users to realize these benefits: tools are often cumbersome to install; different operating systems may have particular issues, or may not be supported at all; and many tools have steep learning curves.To overcome some of these barriers, we present an open, community-based virtual machine (VM). This VM can be run on any operating system, and guarantees reproducibility of results across platforms. It contains a suite of independent OSS weather radar tools (BALTRAD, Py-ART, wradlib, RSL, and Radx), and a scientific Python stack. Furthermore, it features a suite of recipes that work out of the box and provide guidance on how to use the different OSS tools alone and together. The code to build the VM from source is hosted on GitHub, which allows the VM to grow with its community.We argue that the VM presents another step toward Open (Weather Radar) Science. It can be used as a quick way to get started, for teaching, or for benchmarking and combining different tools. It can foster the idea of reproducible research in scientific publishing. Being scalable and extendable, it might even allow for real-time data processing.We expect the VM to catalyze progress toward interoperability, and to lower the barrier for new users and developers, thus extending the weather radar community and user base.
In a recent BAMS article, it is argued that community-based Open Source Software (OSS) could foster scientific progress in weather radar research, and make weather radar software more affordable, flexible, transparent, sustainable, and interoperable.
Nevertheless, it can be challenging for potential developers and users to realize these benefits: tools are often cumbersome to install; different operating systems may have particular issues, or may not be supported at all; and many tools have steep learning curves.
To overcome some of these barriers, we present an open, community-based virtual machine (VM). This VM can be run on any operating system, and guarantees reproducibility of results across platforms. It contains a suite of independent OSS weather radar tools (BALTRAD, Py-ART, wradlib, RSL, and Radx), and a scientific Python stack. Furthermore, it features a suite of recipes that work out of the box and provide guidance on how to use the different OSS tools alone and together. The code to build the VM from source is hosted on GitHub, which allows the VM to grow with its community.
We argue that the VM presents another step toward Open (Weather Radar) Science. It can be used as a quick way to get started, for teaching, or for benchmarking and combining different tools. It can foster the idea of reproducible research in scientific publishing. Being scalable and extendable, it might even allow for real-time data processing.
We expect the VM to catalyze progress toward interoperability, and to lower the barrier for new users and developers, thus extending the weather radar community and user base.
In a recent BAMS article, it is argued that community-based Open Source Software (OSS) could foster scientific progress in weather radar research, and make weather radar software more affordable, flexible, transparent, sustainable, and interoperable.
Nevertheless, it can be challenging for potential developers and users to realize these benefits: tools are often cumbersome to install; different operating systems may have particular issues, or may not be supported at all; and many tools have steep learning curves.
To overcome some of these barriers, we present an open, community-based virtual machine (VM). This VM can be run on any operating system, and guarantees reproducibility of results across platforms. It contains a suite of independent OSS weather radar tools (BALTRAD, Py-ART, wradlib, RSL, and Radx), and a scientific Python stack. Furthermore, it features a suite of recipes that work out of the box and provide guidance on how to use the different OSS tools alone and together. The code to build the VM from source is hosted on GitHub, which allows the VM to grow with its community.
We argue that the VM presents another step toward Open (Weather Radar) Science. It can be used as a quick way to get started, for teaching, or for benchmarking and combining different tools. It can foster the idea of reproducible research in scientific publishing. Being scalable and extendable, it might even allow for real-time data processing.
We expect the VM to catalyze progress toward interoperability, and to lower the barrier for new users and developers, thus extending the weather radar community and user base.
Analysis and modeling of transient earthquake patterns and their dependence on local stress regimes
(2015)
Investigations in the field of earthquake triggering and associated interactions, which includes aftershock triggering as well as induced seismicity, is important for seismic hazard assessment due to earthquakes destructive power. One of the approaches to study earthquake triggering and their interactions is the use of statistical earthquake models, which are based on knowledge of the basic seismicity properties, in particular, the magnitude distribution and spatiotemporal properties of the triggered events.
In my PhD thesis I focus on some specific aspects of aftershock properties, namely, the relative seismic moment release of the aftershocks with respect to the mainshocks; the spatial correlation between aftershock occurrence and fault deformation; and on the influence of aseismic transients on the aftershock parameter estimation. For the analysis of aftershock sequences I choose a statistical approach, in particular, the well known Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which accounts for the input of background and triggered seismicity. For my specific purposes, I develop two ETAS model modifications in collaboration with Sebastian Hainzl. By means of this approach, I estimate the statistical aftershock parameters and performed simulations of aftershock sequences as well.
In the case of seismic moment release of aftershocks, I focus on the ratio of cumulative seismic moment release with respect to the mainshocks. Specifically, I investigate the ratio with respect to the focal mechanism of the mainshock and estimate an effective magnitude, which represents the cumulative aftershock energy (similar to Bath's law, which defines the average difference between mainshock and the largest aftershock magnitudes). Furthermore, I compare the observed seismic moment ratios with the results of the ETAS simulations. In particular, I test a restricted ETAS (RETAS) model which is based on results of a clock advanced model and static stress triggering.
To analyze spatial variations of triggering parameters I focus in my second approach on the aftershock occurrence triggered by large mainshocks and the study of the aftershock parameter distribution and their spatial correlation with the coseismic/postseismic slip and interseismic locking. To invert the aftershock parameters I improve the modified ETAS (m-ETAS) model, which is able to take the extension of the mainshock rupture into account. I compare the results obtained by the classical approach with the output of the m-ETAS model.
My third approach is concerned with the temporal clustering of seismicity, which might not only be related to earthquake-earthquake interactions, but also to a time-dependent background rate, potentially biasing the parameter estimations. Thus, my coauthors and I also applied a modification of the ETAS model, which is able to take into account time-dependent background activity. It can be applicable for two different cases: when an aftershock catalog has a temporal incompleteness or when the background seismicity rate changes with time, due to presence of aseismic forces.
An essential part of any research is the testing of the developed models using observational data sets, which are appropriate for the particular study case. Therefore, in the case of seismic moment release I use the global seismicity catalog. For the spatial distribution of triggering parameters I exploit two aftershock sequences of the Mw8.8 2010 Maule (Chile) and Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku (Japan) mainshocks. In addition, I use published geodetic slip models of different authors. To test our ability to detect aseismic transients my coauthors and I use the data sets from Western Bohemia (Central Europe) and California.
Our results indicate that:
(1) the seismic moment of aftershocks with respect to mainshocks depends on the static stress changes and is maximal for the normal, intermediate for thrust and minimal for strike-slip stress regimes, where the RETAS model shows a good correspondence with the results;
(2) The spatial distribution of aftershock parameters, obtained by the m-ETAS model, shows anomalous values in areas of reactivated crustal fault systems. In addition, the aftershock density is found to be correlated with coseismic slip gradient, afterslip, interseismic coupling and b-values. Aftershock seismic moment is positively correlated with the areas of maximum coseismic slip and interseismically locked areas. These correlations might be related to the stress level or to material properties variations in space;
(3) Ignoring aseismic transient forcing or temporal catalog incompleteness can lead to the significant under- or overestimation of the underlying trigger parameters. In the case when a catalog is complete, this method helps to identify aseismic sources.
Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy
(2015)
Tectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg-Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M-w = 4.2 and M-w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M-l > 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been 'passive' features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an 'active', largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.
Flood risk analyses are often estimated assuming the same flood intensity along the river reach under study, i.e. discharges are calculated for a number of return periods T, e.g. 10 or 100 years, at several streamflow gauges. T-year discharges are regionalised and then transferred into T-year water levels, inundated areas and impacts. This approach assumes that (1) flood scenarios are homogeneous throughout a river basin, and (2) the T-year damage corresponds to the T-year discharge. Using a reach at the river Rhine, this homogeneous approach is compared with an approach that is based on four flood types with different spatial discharge patterns. For each type, a regression model was created and used in a Monte-Carlo framework to derive heterogeneous scenarios. Per scenario, four cumulative impact indicators were calculated: (1) the total inundated area, (2) the exposed settlement and industrial areas, (3) the exposed population and 4) the potential building loss. Their frequency curves were used to establish a ranking of eight past flood events according to their severity. The investigation revealed that the two assumptions of the homogeneous approach do not hold. It tends to overestimate event probabilities in large areas. Therefore, the generation of heterogeneous scenarios should receive more attention.
Assessing uncertainty in refraction seismic traveltime inversion using a global inversion strategy
(2015)
To analyse and invert refraction seismic travel time data, different approaches and techniques have been proposed. One common approach is to invert first-break travel times employing local optimization approaches. However, these approaches result in a single velocity model, and it is difficult to assess the quality and to quantify uncertainties and non-uniqueness of the found solution. To address these problems, we propose an inversion strategy relying on a global optimization approach known as particle swarm optimization. With this approach we generate an ensemble of acceptable velocity models, i.e., models explaining our data equally well. We test and evaluate our approach using synthetic seismic travel times and field data collected across a creeping hillslope in the Austrian Alps. Our synthetic study mimics a layered near-surface environment, including a sharp velocity increase with depth and complex refractor topography. Analysing the generated ensemble of acceptable solutions using different statistical measures demonstrates that our inversion strategy is able to reconstruct the input velocity model, including reasonable, quantitative estimates of uncertainty. Our field data set is inverted, employing the same strategy, and we further compare our results with the velocity model obtained by a standard local optimization approach and the information from a nearby borehole. This comparison shows that both inversion strategies result in geologically reasonable models (in agreement with the borehole information). However, analysing the model variability of the ensemble generated using our global approach indicates that the result of the local optimization approach is part of this model ensemble. Our results show the benefit of employing a global inversion strategy to generate near-surface velocity models from refraction seismic data sets, especially in cases where no detailed a priori information regarding subsurface structures and velocity variations is available.
The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.
The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.
The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At mid-altitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.
Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period 1957-2004. This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.
Auswirkungen und Schäden
(2015)
Accelerating climate change and increased economic and environmental interests in permafrost-affected regions have resulted in an acute need for more directed permafrost research. In June 2014, 88 early career researchers convened to identify future priorities for permafrost research. This multidisciplinary forum concluded that five research topics deserve greatest attention: permafrost landscape dynamics, permafrost thermal modeling, integration of traditional knowledge, spatial distribution of ground ice, and engineering issues. These topics underline the need for integrated research across a spectrum of permafrost-related domains and constitute a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP III).
Paleomagnetic dating of the India-Asia collision hinges on determining the Paleogene latitude of the Lhasa terrane (southern Tibet). Reported latitudes range from 5 degrees N to 30 degrees N, however, leading to contrasting paleogeographic interpretations. Here we report new data from the Eocene Linzizong volcanic rocks in the Nanmulin Basin, which previously yielded data suggesting a low paleolatitude (similar to 10 degrees N). New zircon U-Pb dates indicate an age of similar to 52Ma. Negative fold tests, however, demonstrate that the isolated characteristic remanent magnetizations, with notably varying inclinations, are not primary. Rock magnetic analyses, end-member modeling of isothermal remanent magnetization acquisition curves, and petrographic observations are consistent with variable degrees of posttilting remagnetization due to low-temperature alteration of primary magmatic titanomagnetite and the formation of secondary pigmentary hematite that unblock simultaneously. Previously reported paleomagnetic data from the Nanmulin Basin implying low paleolatitude should thus not be used to estimate the time and latitude of the India-Asia collision. We show that the paleomagnetic inclinations vary linearly with the contribution of secondary hematite to saturation isothermal remanent magnetization. We tentatively propose a new method to recover a primary remanence with inclination of 38.1 degrees (35.7 degrees, 40.5 degrees) (95% significance) and a secondary remanence with inclination of 42.9 degrees (41.5 degrees,44.4 degrees) (95% significance). The paleolatitude defined by the modeled primary remanence21 degrees N (19.8 degrees N, 23.1 degrees N)is consistent with the regional compilation of published results from pristine volcanic rocks and sedimentary rocks of the upper Linzizong Group corrected for inclination shallowing. The start of the Tibetan Himalaya-Asia collision was situated at similar to 20 degrees N and took place by similar to 50Ma.
Shallow-water carbonates are invaluable archives of past global change. They hold the record of how neritic biologic communities reacted to palaeoenvironmental changes. However, attempts to decipher these geological archives are often severely hampered by the low stratigraphic resolution attained by biostratigraphy. This is particularly the case for the Upper Cretaceous carbonate platforms of the central Tethyan realm: their biostratigraphy suffers from very low resolution and poor correlation with the standard biochronologic scales based on ammonites, planktic foraminifers and calcareous nannoplankton.
In this paper we show how this problem can be tackled by integrating biostratigraphy with isotope stratigraphy. We present a detailed record of the benthic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and carbon and strontium isotope stratigraphy of three upper Cenomanian-middle Campanian sections belonging to the Apennine Carbonate Platform of southern Italy. For the upper Cenomanian-Turonian interval, the carbon isotope curves of the studied sections are easily correlated to the reference curve of the English Chalk. The correlation is facilitated by the matching of the prominent positive excursion corresponding to the Oceanic Anoxic Event 2. For the Coniacian-middle Campanian interval, the correlation is mainly based on strontium isotope stratigraphy. We use the Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios of the low-Mg calcite of well preserved rudist shells to obtain accurate chronostratigraphic ages for many levels of the three studied sections. The ages obtained by Sr isotope stratigraphy are then used to better constrain the matching of the carbon isotope curves.
From the high-resolution chronostratigraphic age-model stablished by isotope stratigraphy, we derive the chronostratigraphic calibration of benthic foraminiferal biostratigraphic events. For the first time the benthic foraminiferal biozones of the Apennine Carbonate Platform can be accurately correlated to the standard ammonite biozonation. This result is of great relevance because the biostratigraphic schemes of other carbonate platforms in the central and southern Tethyan realm are largely based on the same biostratigraphic events. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Carbon storage capacity of semi-arid grassland soils and sequestration potentials in northern China
(2015)
Organic carbon (OC) sequestration in degraded semi-arid environments by improved soil management is assumed to contribute substantially to climate change mitigation. However, information about the soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in steppe soils and their current saturation status remains unknown. In this study, we estimated the OC storage capacity of semi-arid grassland soils on the basis of remote, natural steppe fragments in northern China. Based on the maximum OC saturation of silt and clay particles <20m, OC sequestration potentials of degraded steppe soils (grazing land, arable land, eroded areas) were estimated. The analysis of natural grassland soils revealed a strong linear regression between the proportion of the fine fraction and its OC content, confirming the importance of silt and clay particles for OC stabilization in steppe soils. This relationship was similar to derived regressions in temperate and tropical soils but on a lower level, probably due to a lower C input and different clay mineralogy. In relation to the estimated OC storage capacity, degraded steppe soils showed a high OC saturation of 78-85% despite massive SOC losses due to unsustainable land use. As a result, the potential of degraded grassland soils to sequester additional OC was generally low. This can be related to a relatively high contribution of labile SOC, which is preferentially lost in the course of soil degradation. Moreover, wind erosion leads to substantial loss of silt and clay particles and consequently results in a direct loss of the ability to stabilize additional OC. Our findings indicate that the SOC loss in semi-arid environments induced by intensive land use is largely irreversible. Observed SOC increases after improved land management mainly result in an accumulation of labile SOC prone to land use/climate changes and therefore cannot be regarded as contribution to long-term OC sequestration.
High resolution isotopic (delta O-18 and delta C-13) investigations on endogenic carbonates (calcite/aragonite) from Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalaya show dramatic fluctuations during the late glacial and the early Holocene, and a persistent enrichment trend during the late Holocene. Changes in this lake are largely governed by the [input (meltwater + monsoon precipitation)/evaporationj (WE) ratio, also reflected in changes in the carbonate mineralogy with aragonite being formed during periods of lowest I/E. Using new isotopic data on endogenic carbonates in combination with the available data on geochemistry, mineralogy, and reconstructed mean annual precipitation, we demonstrate that the late glacial and early Holocene carbonate delta O-18 variability resulted from fluctuating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation in NW Himalaya. This region experienced increasing ISM precipitation between ca. 13.1 and 11.7 cal ka and highest ISM precipitation during the early Holocene (11.2-8.5 cal ka). However, during the late Holocene, evaporation was the dominant control on the carbonate delta O-18. Regional comparison of reconstructed hydrological changes from Tso Moriri Lake with other archives from the Asian summer monsoon and westerlies domain shows that the intensified westerly influence that resulted in higher lake levels (after 8 cal ka) in central Asia was not strongly felt in NW Himalaya. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Dynamics of solute export from catchments can be classified in terms of chemostatic and chemodynamic export regimes by an analysis of concentration-discharge relationships. Previous studies hypothesized that distinct export regimes emerge from the presence of solute mass stores within the catchment and their connectivity to the stream. However, so far a direct link of solute export to identifiable catchment characteristics is missing. Here we investigate long-term time series of stream water quality and quantity of nine neighboring catchments in Central Germany ranging from relatively pristine mountain catchments to agriculturally dominated lowland catchments, spanning large gradients in land use, geology, and climatic conditions. Given the strong collinearity of catchment characteristics we used partial least square regression analysis to quantify the predictive power of these characteristics for median concentrations and the metrics of export regime. We can show that median concentrations and metrics of the export regimes of major ions and nutrients can indeed be inferred from catchment characteristics. Strongest predictors for median concentrations were the share of arable land, discharge per area, runoff coefficient and available water capacity in the root zone of the catchments. The available water capacity in the root zone, the share of arable land being artificially drained and the topographic gradient were found to be the most relevant predictors for the metrics of export regime. These catchment characteristics can represent the size of solute mass store such as the fraction of arable land being a measure for the store of nitrate. On the other hand, catchment characteristics can be a measure for the connectivity of these solute stores to the stream such as the fraction of tile drained land in the catchments. This study demonstrates the potential of data-driven, top down analyses using simple metrics to classify and better understand dominant controls of solute export from catchments. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Unexpected incidents, failures, and disasters are abundant in the history of flooding events. In this paper, we introduce the metaphors of terra incognita and terra maligna to illustrate unknown and wicked flood situations, respectively. We argue that surprise is a neglected element in flood risk assessment and management. Two sources of surprise are identified: (1) the complexity of flood risk systems, represented by nonlinearities, interdependencies, and nonstationarities and (2) cognitive biases in human perception and decision making. Flood risk assessment and management are particularly prone to cognitive biases due to the rarity and uniqueness of extremes, and the nature of human risk perception. We reflect on possible approaches to better understanding and reducing the potential for surprise and its adverse consequences which may be supported by conceptually charting maps that separate terra incognita from terra cognita, and terra maligna from terra benigna. We conclude that flood risk assessment and management should account for the potential for surprise and devastating consequences which will require a shift in thinking.
Climate change is likely to impact the seasonality and generation processes of floods in the Nordic countries, which has direct implications for flood risk assessment, design flood estimation, and hydropower production management. Using a multi-model/multi-parameter approach to simulate daily discharge for a reference (1961–1990) and a future (2071–2099) period, we analysed the projected changes in flood seasonality and generation processes in six catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes under the current climate in Norway. The multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consists of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two methods for adjusting the climate model output to the catchment scale, and (iii) one conceptual hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets. Results indicate that autumn/winter events become more frequent in all catchments considered, which leads to an intensification of the current autumn/winter flood regime for the coastal catchments, a reduction of the dominance of spring/summer flood regimes in a high-mountain catchment, and a possible systematic shift in the current flood regimes from spring/summer to autumn/winter in the two catchments located in northern and south-eastern Norway. The changes in flood regimes result from increasing event magnitudes or frequencies, or a combination of both during autumn and winter. Changes towards more dominant autumn/winter events correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process (FGP) which is most pronounced in those catchments with the largest shifts in flood seasonality. Here, rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP primarily due to increasing temperature.We further analysed the ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty in the projected changes and found that the climate
projections and the methods for downscaling or bias correction tend to be the largest contributors. The relative role of hydrological parameter uncertainty, however, is highest for those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality, which confirms the lack of robustness in hydrological model parameterization for simulations under transient hydrometeorological conditions.
Climate change is likely to impact the seasonality and generation processes of floods in the Nordic countries, which has direct implications for flood risk assessment, design flood estimation, and hydropower production management. Using a multi-model/multi-parameter approach to simulate daily discharge for a reference (1961–1990) and a future (2071–2099) period, we analysed the projected changes in flood seasonality and generation processes in six catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes under the current climate in Norway. The multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consists of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two methods for adjusting the climate model output to the catchment scale, and (iii) one conceptual hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets. Results indicate that autumn/winter events become more frequent in all catchments considered, which leads to an intensification of the current autumn/winter flood regime for the coastal catchments, a reduction of the dominance of spring/summer flood regimes in a high-mountain catchment, and a possible systematic shift in the current flood regimes from spring/summer to autumn/winter in the two catchments located in northern and south-eastern Norway. The changes in flood regimes result from increasing event magnitudes or frequencies, or a combination of both during autumn and winter. Changes towards more dominant autumn/winter events correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process (FGP) which is most pronounced in those catchments with the largest shifts in flood seasonality. Here, rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP primarily due to increasing temperature.We further analysed the ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty in the projected changes and found that the climate projections and the methods for downscaling or bias correction tend to be the largest contributors. The relative role of hydrological parameter uncertainty, however, is highest for those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality, which confirms the lack of robustness in hydrological model parameterization for simulations under transient hydrometeorological conditions.
Climate or Land Use?
(2015)
This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950-2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability.
We present a new record of eolian dust flux to the western Subarctic North Pacific (SNP) covering the past 27,000years based on a core from the Detroit Seamount. Comparing the SNP dust record to the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record shows significant differences in the amplitude of dust changes to the two regions during the last deglaciation, while the timing of abrupt changes is synchronous. If dust deposition in the SNP faithfully records its mobilization in East Asian source regions, then the difference in the relative amplitude must reflect climate-related changes in atmospheric dust transport to Greenland. Based on the synchronicity in the timing of dust changes in the SNP and Greenland, we tie abrupt deglacial transitions in the Th-230-normalized He-4 flux record to corresponding transitions in the well-dated NGRIP dust flux record to provide a new chronostratigraphic technique for marine sediments from the SNP. Results from this technique are complemented by radiocarbon dating, which allows us to independently constrain radiocarbon paleoreservoir ages. We find paleoreservoir ages of 745140years at 11,653year B.P., 680228years at 14,630year B.P., and 790498years at 23,290year B.P. Our reconstructed paleoreservoir ages are consistent with modern surface water reservoir ages in the western SNP. Good temporal synchronicity between eolian dust records from the Subantarctic Atlantic and equatorial Pacific and the ice core record from Antarctica supports the reliability of the proposed dust tuning method to be used more widely in other global ocean regions.
Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind-damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012).
Contrasting response of two shallow eutrophic cold temperate lakes to a partial winterkill of fish
(2015)
Food-web effects of winterkill are difficult to predict as the enhanced mortality of planktivorous fish may be counterbalanced by an even higher mortality of piscivores. We hypothesised that a winterkill in a clear and a turbid shallow lake would equalise their fish community composition, but seasonal plankton successions would differ between lakes. After a partial winterkill, we observed a reduction of fish biomass by 16 and 43% in a clear-water and a turbid small temperate lake, respectively. Fish biomass and piscivore shares (5% of fish biomass) were similar in both lakes after this winterkill, but young-of-the-year (YOY) abundances were higher in the turbid lake. Top-down control by crustaceans was only partly responsible for low phytoplankton biomass at the end of May following the winterkill in both lakes. Summer phytoplankton biomass remained low in the clear-water lake despite high abundances of YOY fish (mainly roach). In contrast, the crustacean biomass of the turbid lake was reduced in summer by a high YOY abundance (sunbleak and roach), leading to a strong increase in phytoplankton biomass. The YOY abundance of fish in shallow eutrophic lakes may thus be more important for their summer phytoplankton development after winterkill than the relative abundance of piscivores.
Newly acquired high-resolution bathymetric data (with 5 m and 2 m grid sizes) from the continental shelf off Concepcion (Chile), in combination with seismic reflection profiles, reveal a distinctly different evolution for the Biobio submarine canyon compared to that of one of its tributaries. Both canyons are incised into the shelf of the active margin. Whereas the inner shelf appears to be mantled with unconsolidated sediment, the outer shelf shows the influence of strong bottom currents that form drifts of loose sediment and transport -material into the Biobio submarine canyon and onto the continental slope.
The main stem of the Biobio Canyon is connected to the mouth of the Biobio River and currently provides a conduit for terrestrial sediment from the continental shelf to the deep seafloor. In contrast, the head of its tributary closest to the coast is located similar to 24 km offshore of the present-day coastline at 120 m water depth, and it is subject to passive sedimentation. However, canyon activity within the study area is interpreted to be controlled not only by the direct input of fluvial sediments into the canyon head facilitated by the river-mouth to canyon-head connection, but also by input from southward-directed bottom currents and possibly longshore drift. In addition, about 24 km offshore of the present-day coastline, the main stem of the Biobio Canyon has steep canyon walls next to sites of active tectonic deformation that are prone to wall failure. Mass-failure events may also foster turbidity currents and contribute to canyon feeding. In contrast, the tributary has less steep canyon walls with limited evidence of canyon-wall failure and is located down-system of bottom currents from the Biobio Canyon. It consequently receives neither fluvial nor longshore sediments. Therefore, the canyon's connectivity to fluvial or longshore sediment delivery pathways is affected by the distance of the canyon head from the coastline and the orientation of the canyon axis relative to the direction of bottom currents.
The ability of a submarine canyon to act as an active conduit for large quantities of terrestrial sediment toward the deep sea during sea-level highstands may be controlled by several different conditions simultaneously. These include bottom current direction, structural deformation of the seafloor affecting canyon location and orientation as well as canyon-wall failure, shelf gradient and associated distance from the canyon head to the coast, and fluvial networks. The complex interplay between these factors may vary even within an individual canyon system, resulting in distinct levels of canyon activity on a regional scale.
The causes for the formation of large igneous provinces and hotspot trails are still a matter of considerable dispute. Seismic tomography and other studies suggest that hot mantle material rising from the core-mantle boundary (CMB) might play a significant role in the formation of such hotspot trails. An important area to verify this concept is the South Atlantic region, with hotspot trails that spatially coincide with one of the largest low-velocity regions at the CMB, the African large low shear-wave velocity province. The Walvis Ridge started to form during the separation of the South American and African continents at ca. 130 Ma as a consequence of Gondwana breakup. Here, we present the first deep-seismic sounding images of the crustal structure from the landfall area of the Walvis Ridge at the Namibian coast to constrain processes of plume-lithosphere interaction and the formation of continental flood basalts (Parana and Etendeka continental flood basalts) and associated intrusive rocks. Our study identified a narrow region (<100 km) of high-seismic-velocity anomalies in the middle and lower crust, which we interpret as a massive mafic intrusion into the northern Namibian continental crust. Seismic crustal reflection imaging shows a flat Moho as well as reflectors connecting the high-velocity body with shallow crustal structures that we speculate to mark potential feeder channels of the Etendeka continental flood basalt. We suggest that the observed massive but localized mafic intrusion into the lower crust results from similar-sized variations in the lithosphere (i.e., lithosphere thickness or preexisting structures).
A seismological network was operated at the junction of the aseismic Walvis Ridge with the northwestern Namibian coast. We mapped crustal thickness and bulk V-p/V-s ratio by the H-k analysis of receiver functions. In the Damara Belt, the crustal thickness is similar to 35km with a V-p/V-s ratio of <1.75. The crust is similar to 30km thick at the coast in the Kaoko Belt. Strong variations in crustal thickness and V-p/V-s ratios are found at the landfall of the Walvis Ridge. Here and at similar to 150km northeast of the coast, the crustal thickness increases dramatically reaching 44km and the V-p/V-s ratios are extremely high (similar to 1.89). These anomalies are interpreted as magmatic underplating produced by the mantle plume during the breakup of Gondwana. The area affected by the plume is smaller than 300km in diameter, possibly ruling out the existence of a large plume head under the continent during the breakup.
Danksagung
(2015)
Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013
(2015)
Ground-based magnetic surveying is a common geophysical method to explore near-surface environments in a non-destructive manner. In many typical applications (such as archaeological prospection), the resulting anomaly maps are often characterized by low signal-to-noise ratios and, thus, the suppression of noise is a key step in data processing. Here, we propose the steering kernel regression (SKR) method to denoise magnetic data sets. SKR has been recently developed to suppress random noise in images and video sequences. The core of the method is the steering kernel function which represents a robust estimate of local image structure. Using such a kernel within an iterative regression based denoising framework, helps to minimize image blurring and to preserve the underlying structures such as edges and corners. Because such filter characteristics are desirable for random noise attenuation in potential field data sets, we apply the SKR method for processing high-resolution ground-based magnetic data as they are typically collected in archaeological applications. We test and evaluate the SKR method using synthetic and field data examples and also compare it to more commonly employed denoising strategies relying, for example, on fixed filter masks (e.g., Gaussian filters). Our results show that the SKR method is successful in removing random and acquisition related noise present in our data. Concurrently, it preserves the local image structure including the amplitudes of anomalies. As demonstrated by derivative based transformations, the mentioned filter characteristics significantly impact subsequent processing steps and, therefore, result in an improved analysis and interpretation of magnetic data. Thus, the method can be considered as a promising and novel approach for denoising ground-based magnetic data.
Continental rifts are excellent regions where the interplay between extension, the build-up of topography, erosion and sedimentation can be evaluated in the context of landscape evolution. Rift basins also constitute important archives that potentially record the evolution and migration of species and the change of sedimentary conditions as a result of climatic change. Finally, rifts have increasingly become targets of resource exploration, such as hydrocarbons or geothermal systems. The study of extensional processes and the factors that further modify the mainly climate-driven surface process regime helps to identify changes in past and present tectonic and geomorphic processes that are ultimately recorded in rift landscapes.
The Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) is an exemplary continental rift system and ideal natural laboratory to observe such interactions. The eastern and western branches of the EARS constitute first-order tectonic and topographic features in East Africa, which exert a profound influence on the evolution of topography, the distribution and amount of rainfall, and thus the efficiency of surface processes. The Kenya Rift is an integral part of the eastern branch of the EARS and is characterized by high-relief rift escarpments bounded by normal faults, gently tilted rift shoulders, and volcanic centers along the rift axis.
Considering the Cenozoic tectonic processes in the Kenya Rift, the tectonically controlled cooling history of rift shoulders, the subsidence history of rift basins, and the sedimentation along and across the rift, may help to elucidate the morphotectonic evolution of this extensional province. While tectonic forcing of surface processes may play a minor role in the low-strain rift on centennial to millennial timescales, it may be hypothesized that erosion and sedimentation processes impacted by climate shifts associated with pronounced changes in the availability in moisture may have left important imprints in the landscape.
In this thesis I combined thermochronological, geomorphic field observations, and morphometry of digital elevation models to reconstruct exhumation processes and erosion rates, as well as the effects of climate on the erosion processes in different sectors of the rift. I present three sets of results: (1) new thermochronological data from the northern and central parts of the rift to quantitatively constrain the Tertiary exhumation and thermal evolution of the Kenya Rift. (2) 10Be-derived catchment-wide mean denudation rates from the northern, central and southern rift that characterize erosional processes on millennial to present-day timescales; and (3) paleo-denudation rates in the northern rift to constrain climatically controlled shifts in paleoenvironmental conditions during the early Holocene (African Humid Period).
Taken together, my studies show that time-temperature histories derived from apatite fission track (AFT) analysis, zircon (U-Th)/He dating, and thermal modeling bracket the onset of rifting in the Kenya Rift between 65-50 Ma and about 15 Ma to the present. These two episodes are marked by rapid exhumation and, uplift of the rift shoulders. Between 45 and 15 Ma the margins of the rift experienced very slow erosion/exhumation, with the accommodation of sediments in the rift basin.
In addition, I determined that present-day denudation rates in sparsely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift amount to 0.13 mm/yr, whereas denudation rates in humid and more densely vegetated sectors of the rift flanks reach a maximum of 0.08 mm/yr, despite steeper hillslopes. I inferred that hillslope gradient and vegetation cover control most of the variation in denudation rates across the Kenya Rift today. Importantly, my results support the notion that vegetation cover plays a fundamental role in determining the voracity of erosion of hillslopes through its stabilizing effects on the land surface.
Finally, in a pilot study I highlighted how paleo-denudation rates in climatic threshold areas changed significantly during times of transient hydrologic conditions and involved a sixfold increase in erosion rates during increased humidity. This assessment is based on cosmogenic nuclide (10Be) dating of quartzitic deltaic sands that were deposited in the northern Kenya Rift during a highstand of Lake Suguta, which was associated with the Holocene African Humid Period. Taken together, my new results document the role of climate variability in erosion processes that impact climatic threshold environments, which may provide a template for potential future impacts of climate-driven changes in surface processes in the course of Global Change.
The Upper Cambrian Lower Qiulitag Group in the Tarim Basin, NW China, is overwhelmingly composed of cyclic dolomites. Based on extensive field investigations and facies analysis from four outcrop sections in the Bachu-Keping area, northwestern Tarim Basin, four main types of facies are recognized: open-marine subtidal, restricted shallow subtidal, intertidal, and supratidal facies, and these are further subdivided into ten lithofacies. In general, these facies are vertically arranged into shallowing-upward, metre-scale cycles. These cycles are commonly composed of a thin basal horizon reflecting abrupt deepening, and a thicker upper succession showing gradual shallowing upwards. Based on the vertical facies arrangements and changes across boundary surfaces, two types of cycle: peritidal and shallow subtidal cycle, are further identified. The peritidal cycles, predominating over the lower-middle Lower Qiulitag Group, commence with shallow subtidal to lower intertidal facies and are capped by inter-supratidal facies. In contrast, the shallow subtidal cycles, dominating the upper Lower Qiulitag Group, are capped by shallow-subtidal facies. Based on vertical lithofacies variations, cycle stacking patterns, and accommodation variations revealed by Fischer plots, six larger-scale third-order depositional sequences (Sq1-Sq6) are recognized. These sequences generally consist of a lower transgressive and an upper regressive systems tract. The transgressive tracts are dominated by thicker-than-average cycles, indicating an overall accommodation increase, whereas the regressive tracts are characterized by thinner-than-average peritidal cycles, indicating an overall accommodation decrease. The sequence boundaries are characterized by transitional zones of stacked thinner-than-average cycles, rather than by a single surface. These sequences can further be grouped into lower-order sequence sets: the lower and upper sequence sets. The lower sequence set, including Sq1-Sq3, is characterized by peritidal facies-dominated sequences and a progressive decrease in accommodation space, indicating a longer-term fall in sea level. In contrast, the upper sequence set (Sq4-Sq6) is characterized by subtidal facies-dominated sequences and a progressive increase in accommodation space, indicating a longer-term rise in sea level.
Remote sensing technology serves as a powerful tool for analyzing geospatial characteristics of flood inundation events at various scales. However, the performance of remote sensing methods depends heavily on the flood characteristics and landscape settings. Difficulties might be encountered in mapping the extent of localized flooding with shallow water on riverine floodplain areas, where patches of herbaceous vegetation are interspersed with open water surfaces. To address the difficulties in mapping inundation on areas with complex water and vegetation compositions, a high spatial resolution dataset has to be used to reduce the problem of mixed pixels. The main objective of our study was to investigate the possibilities of using a single date WorldView-2 image of very high spatial resolution and supporting data to analyze spatial patterns of localized flooding on a riverine floodplain. We used a decision tree algorithm with various combinations of input variables including spectral bands of the WorldView-2 image, selected spectral indices dedicated to mapping water surfaces and vegetation, and topographic data. The overall accuracies of the twelve flood extent maps derived with the decision tree method and performed on both pixels and image objects ranged between 77% and 95%. The highest mapping overall accuracy was achieved with a method that utilized all available input data and the object-based image analysis. Our study demonstrates the possibility of using single date WorldView-2 data for analyzing flooding events at high spatial detail despite the absence of spectral bands from the short-waveform region that are frequently used in water related studies. Our study also highlights the importance of topographic data in inundation analyses. The greatest difficulties were met in mapping water surfaces under dense canopy herbaceous vegetation, due to limited water surface exposure and the dominance of vegetation reflectance.
The continuously increasing demand for rare earth elements in technical components of modern technologies, brings the detection of new deposits closer into the focus of global exploration. One promising method to globally map important deposits might be remote sensing, since it has been used for a wide range of mineral mapping in the past. This doctoral thesis investigates the capacity of hyperspectral remote sensing for the detection of rare earth element deposits. The definition and the realization of a fundamental database on the spectral characteristics of rare earth oxides, rare earth metals and rare earth element bearing materials formed the basis of this thesis. To investigate these characteristics in the field, hyperspectral images of four outcrops in Fen Complex, Norway, were collected in the near-field. A new methodology (named REEMAP) was developed to delineate rare earth element enriched zones. The main steps of REEMAP are: 1) multitemporal weighted averaging of multiple images covering the sample area; 2) sharpening the rare earth related signals using a Gaussian high pass deconvolution technique that is calibrated on the standard deviation of a Gaussian-bell shaped curve that represents by the full width of half maxima of the target absorption band; 3) mathematical modeling of the target absorption band and highlighting of rare earth elements. REEMAP was further adapted to different hyperspectral sensors (EO-1 Hyperion and EnMAP) and a new test site (Lofdal, Namibia). Additionally, the hyperspectral signatures of associated minerals were investigated to serve as proxy for the host rocks. Finally, the capacity and limitations of spectroscopic rare earth element detection approaches in general and of the REEMAP approach specifically were investigated and discussed. One result of this doctoral thesis is that eight rare earth oxides show robust absorption bands and, therefore, can be used for hyperspectral detection methods. Additionally, the spectral signatures of iron oxides, iron-bearing sulfates, calcite and kaolinite can be used to detect metasomatic alteration zones and highlight the ore zone. One of the key results of this doctoral work is the developed REEMAP approach, which can be applied from near-field to space. The REEMAP approach enables rare earth element mapping especially for noisy images. Limiting factors are a low signal to noise ratio, a reduced spectral resolution, overlaying materials, atmospheric absorption residuals and non-optimal illumination conditions. Another key result of this doctoral thesis is the finding that the future hyperspectral EnMAP satellite (with its currently published specifications, June 2015) will be theoretically capable to detect absorption bands of erbium, dysprosium, holmium, neodymium and europium, thulium and samarium. This thesis presents a new methodology REEMAP that enables a spatially wide and rapid hyperspectral detection of rare earth elements in order to meet the demand for fast, extensive and efficient rare earth exploration (from near-field to space).
Owing to average temperature increases of at least twice the global mean, climate change is expected to have strong impacts on local hydrology and climatology in the Alps. Nevertheless, trend analyses of hydro-climatic station data rarely reveal clear patterns concerning climate change signals except in temperature observations. However, trend research has thus far mostly been based on analysing trends of averaged data such as yearly, seasonal or monthly averages and has therefore often not been able to detect the finer temporal dynamics. For this reason, we derived 30-day moving average trends, providing a daily resolution of the timing and magnitude of trends within the seasons. Results are validated by including different time periods. We studied daily observations of mean temperature, liquid and solid precipitation, snow height and runoff in the relatively dry central Alpine region in Tyrol, Austria. Our results indicate that the vast majority of changes are observed throughout spring to early summer, most likely triggered by the strong temperature increase during this season. Temperature, streamflow and snow trends have clearly amplified during recent decades. The overall results are consistent over the entire investigation area and different time periods.
Empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This article presents a holistic framework for the development of a response spectral GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain. The approach for developing a response spectral GMPE is unique, because it combines the predictions of empirical models for the two model components that characterize the spectral and temporal behavior of the ground motion. Essentially, as described in its initial form by Bora et al. (2014), the approach consists of an empirical model for the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and a model for the ground-motion duration. These two components are combined within the random vibration theory framework to obtain predictions of response spectral ordinates. In addition, FAS corresponding to individual acceleration records are extrapolated beyond the useable frequencies using the stochastic FAS model, obtained by inversion as described in Edwards and Fah (2013a). To that end, a (oscillator) frequency-dependent duration model, consistent with the empirical FAS model, is also derived. This makes it possible to generate a response spectral model that is easily adjustable to different sets of seismological parameters, such as the stress parameter Delta sigma, quality factor Q, and kappa kappa(0). The dataset used in Bora et al. (2014), a subset of the RESORCE-2012 database, is considered for the present analysis. Based upon the range of the predictor variables in the selected dataset, the present response spectral GMPE should be considered applicable over the magnitude range of 4 <= M-w <= 7.6 at distances <= 200 km.
Development of geophysical methods to characterize methane hydrate reservoirs on a laboratory scale
(2015)
Gas hydrates are crystalline solids composed of water and gas molecules. They are stable at elevated pressure and low temperatures. Therefore, natural gas hydrate deposits occur at continental margins, permafrost areas, deep lakes, and deep inland seas. During hydrate formation, the water molecules rearrange to form cavities which host gas molecules. Due to the high pressure during hydrate formation, significant amounts of gas can be stored in hydrate structures. The water-gas ratio hereby can reach up to 1:172 at 0°C and atmospheric pressure. Natural gas hydrates predominantly contain methane. Because methane constitutes both a fuel and a greenhouse gas, gas hydrates are a potential energy resource as well as a potential source for greenhouse gas.
This study investigates the physical properties of methane hydrate bearing sediments on a laboratory scale. To do so, an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) array was developed and mounted in a large reservoir simulator (LARS). For the first time, the ERT array was applied to hydrate saturated sediment samples under controlled temperature, pressure, and hydrate saturation conditions on a laboratory scale. Typically, the pore space of (marine) sediments is filled with electrically well conductive brine. Because hydrates constitute an electrical isolator, significant contrasts regarding the electrical properties of the pore space emerge during hydrate formation and dissociation. Frequent measurements during hydrate formation experiments permit the recordings of the spatial resistivity distribution inside LARS. Those data sets are used as input for a new data processing routine which transfers the spatial resistivity distribution into the spatial distribution of hydrate saturation. Thus, the changes of local hydrate saturation can be monitored with respect to space and time.
This study shows that the developed tomography yielded good data quality and resolved even small amounts of hydrate saturation inside the sediment sample. The conversion algorithm transforming the spatial resistivity distribution into local hydrate saturation values yielded the best results using the Archie-var-phi relation. This approach considers the increasing hydrate phase as part of the sediment frame, metaphorically reducing the sample’s porosity. In addition, the tomographical measurements showed that fast lab based hydrate formation processes cause small crystallites to form which tend to recrystallize.
Furthermore, hydrate dissociation experiments via depressurization were conducted in order to mimic the 2007/2008 Mallik field trial. It was observed that some patterns in gas and water flow could be reproduced, even though some setup related limitations arose.
In two additional long-term experiments the feasibility and performance of CO2-CH4 hydrate exchange reactions were studied in LARS. The tomographical system was used to monitor the spatial hydrate distribution during the hydrate formation stage. During the subsequent CO2 injection, the tomographical array allowed to follow the CO2 migration front inside the sediment sample and helped to identify the CO2 breakthrough.
Barite concretions and bands are widely distributed in black shale-chert horizons in the Yurtus Formation of Lower Cambrian in Aksu area, northwestern Tarim Basin, NW China. They mainly consist of coarse-grained anhedral to euhedral barite crystals with minor dolomites and pyrites. Petrological features indicate these concretions grew from the porewater in unconsolidated sediments at shallow burial below sediment-water interface. The slight deviation of Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (0.7083 to 0.7090) and significant elevated delta S-34 values (56.8-76.4 parts per thousand CDT) of barite samples with respect to those of the Early Cambrian seawater further support that barite deposits precipitated from the enclosed porewater in sediment column, which evolved from the penecontemporaneous seawater with weak interaction with the host fine-grained siliciclastic sediments and highly-depleted sulfate in response to prolonged strong bacterial sulfate reduction without necessary renewal. The abundant organic matters in the basal Yurtus Formation should have facilitated developing sulfate-depleted methanogenesis zone and sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) slightly after deposition. Therefore, barite deposits in the Yurtus Formation most likely resulted from diagenetic barium cycling and persistently grew from the porewater in the static SMTZ with a low sedimentation rate in the Early Cambrian. In comparison with the distribution of sedimentary barites in geological records, we tentatively proposed that a transition in diagenetic barium cycling and associated mineralization may have occurred from the Precambrian to Cambrian periods; this scenario may be causally linked to the changes in marine ecology (the advent of mesozooplankton and associated faecal pellet) and geochemistry (the increase of seawater sulfate concentration). Thus, the occurrence of diagenetic barite deposits in the Yurtus Formation implies that diagenetic barium cycling and more effective scavenging of barium from CH4- and Ba-rich porewaters within sediments might have become an nonnegligible process in continental margin areas, at least, since the earliest Cambrian, which could have significantly impacted the marine barium cycling. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden verschiedene Experimente zur Untersuchung der elektrischen Leitfähigkeit von Sutur- und Kollisionszonen im Zusammenhang diskutiert, um die Möglichkeiten, die die moderne Magnetotellurik (MT) für das Abbilden fossiler tektonischer Systeme bietet, aufzuzeigen. Aus den neuen hochauflösenden Abbildern der elektrischen Leitfähigkeit können potentielle Gemeinsamkeiten verschiedener tektonischer Einheiten abgeleitet werden. Innerhalb der letzten Dekade haben sich durch die Weiterentwicklung der Messgeräte und der Auswerte- und Interpretationsmethoden völlig neue Perspektiven für die geodynamische Tiefensondierung ergeben. Dies wird an meinen Forschungsarbeiten deutlich, die ich im Rahmen von Projekten selbst eingeworben und am Deutschen GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam durchgeführt habe. In Tabelle A habe ich die in dieser Arbeit berücksichtigten Experimente aufgeführt, die in den letzten Jahren entweder als Array- oder als Profilmessungen durchgeführt wurden. Für derart große Feldexperimente benötigt man ein Team von WissenschaftlerInnen, StudentInnen und technischem Personal. Das bedeutet aber auch, dass von mir betreute StudentInnen und DoktorandInnen Teilaspekte dieser Experimente in Form von Diplom-, Bachelor- und Mastersarbeiten oder Promotionsschriften verarbeitet haben. Bei anschließender Veröffentlichung der Arbeiten habe ich als Co-Autor mitgewirkt. Die beiliegenden Veröffentlichungen enthalten eine Einführung in die Methode der Magnetotellurik und gegebenenfalls die Beschreibung neu entwickelter Methoden. Eine allgemeine Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen der Magnetotellurik findet man zum Beispiel in Chave & Jones (2012); Simpson & Bahr (2005); Kaufman & Keller (1981); Nabighian (1987); Weaver (1994). Die Arbeit beinhaltet zudem ein Glossar, in dem einige Begriffe und Abkürzungen erklärt werden. Ich habe mich entschieden, Begriffe, für die es keine adäquate deutsche Übersetzung gibt oder die im Deutschen eine andere oder missverständliche Bedeutung bekommen, auf Englisch in der Arbeit zu belassen. Sie sind durch eine kursive Schreibweise gekennzeichnet.
Dinosterol delta D values in stratified tropical lakes (Cameroon) are affected by eutrophication
(2015)
In freshwater settings, dinosterol (4 alpha,23,24-trimethyl-5 alpha-cholest-22E-en-3 beta-ol) is produced primarily by dinoflagellates, which encompass various species including autotrophs, mixotrophs and heterotrophs. Due to its source specificity and occurrence in lake and marine sediments, its presence and hydrogen isotopic composition (delta D) should be valuable proxies for paleohydrological reconstruction. However, because the purity required for hydrogen isotope measurements is difficult to achieve using standard wet chemical purification methods, their potential as a paleohydrological proxy is rarely exploited. In this study, we tested delta D values of dinosterol in both particulate organic matter (POM) and sediments of stratified tropical freshwater lakes (from Cameroon) as a paleohydrological proxy, the lakes being characterized by variable degrees of eutrophication. In POM and sediment samples, the delta D values of dinosterol correlated with lake water delta D values, confirming a first order influence of source water delta D values. However, we observed that sedimentary dinosterol was D enriched from ca. 19 to 54% compared with POM dinosterol. The enrichment correlated with lake water column conditions, mainly the redox potential at the oxic-anoxic interface (E-h OAI). The observations suggest that paleohydrologic reconstruction from delta D values of dinosterol in the sediments of stratified tropical lakes ought to be sensitive to the depositional environment, in addition to lake water delta D values, with more positive dinosterol delta values potentially reflecting increasing lake eutrophication. Furthermore, in lake sediments, the concentration of partially reduced vs. non-reduced C-34 botryococcenes, stanols vs. stenols, and bacterial (diploptene, diplopterol and beta beta-bishomohopanol) vs. planktonic/terrestrial lipids (cholesterol, campesterol and dinosterol) correlated with Eh OAI. We suggest using such molecular proxies for lake redox conditions in combination with dinosterol delta D values to evaluate the effect of lake trophic status on sedimentary dinosterol delta D values, as a basis for accurately reconstructing tropical lake water delta D values. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions. The probability that events have been human triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state-dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3-D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived seismological information on the event location, source mechanism, and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main shock events: (1) the M-w 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea, earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field; (2) the M-w 4.4 Rotenburg 2004, Northern Germany, earthquake in the vicinity of the Sohlingen gas field; and (3) the M-w 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy, earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly human induced, not even human triggered, and a third case in between both extremes.
Thermal permafrost degradation and coastal erosion in the Arctic remobilize substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) and nutrients which have accumulated in late Pleistocene and Holocene unconsolidated deposits. Permafrost vulnerability to thaw subsidence, collapsing coastlines and irreversible landscape change are largely due to the presence of large amounts of massive ground ice such as ice wedges. However, ground ice has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements which are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling. Here we show, using biogeochemical data from a large number of different ice bodies throughout the Arctic, that ice wedges have the greatest potential for DOC storage, with a maximum of 28.6 mg L-1 (mean: 9.6 mg L-1). Variation in DOC concentration is positively correlated with and explained by the concentrations and relative amounts of typically terrestrial cations such as Mg2+ and K+. DOC sequestration into ground ice was more effective during the late Pleistocene than during the Holocene, which can be explained by rapid sediment and OC accumulation, the prevalence of more easily degradable vegetation and immediate incorporation into permafrost. We assume that pristine snowmelt is able to leach considerable amounts of well-preserved and highly bioavailable DOC as well as other elements from surface sediments, which are rapidly frozen and stored in ground ice, especially in ice wedges, even before further degradation. We found that ice wedges in the Yedoma region represent a significant DOC (45.2 Tg) and DIC (33.6 Tg) pool in permafrost areas and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km(2). This study underlines the need to discriminate between particulate OC and DOC to assess the availability and vulnerability of the permafrost car-bon pool for ecosystems and climate feedback upon mobilization.
Does textural heterogeneity matter? Quantifying transformation of hydrological signals in soils
(2015)
Textural heterogeneity causes complex water flow patterns and soil moisture dynamics in soils that hamper monitoring and modeling soil hydrological processes. These patterns can be generated by process based models considering soil texture heterogeneities. However, there is urgent need for tools for the inverse approach, that is, to analyze observed dynamics in a quantitative way independent from any model approach in order to identify effects of soil texture heterogeneity. Here, studying the transformation of hydrological input signals (e.g., rainfall, snow melt) propagating through the vadose zone is a promising supplement to the common perspective of mass flux considerations. In this study we applied a recently developed new approach for quantitative analysis of hydrological time series (i) to investigate the effect of soil texture on the signal transformation behavior and (ii) to analyze to what degree soil moisture dynamics from a heterogeneous profile can be reproduced by a corresponding homogenous substrate. We used simulation models to generate three data sets of soil moisture time series considering homogeneous substrates (HOM), homogeneous substrates with noise added (NOISE), and heterogeneous substrates (HET). The soil texture classes sand, loamy sand, clay loam and silt were considered. We applied a principal component analysis (also called empirical orthogonal functions) to identify predominant functional patterns and to measure the degree of signal transformation of single time series. For the HOM case 86.7% of the soil moisture dynamics were reproduced by the first two principal components. Based on these results a quantitative measure for the degree of transformation of the input signal was derived. The general nature of signal transformation was nearly identical in all textures, but the intensity of signal damping per depth interval decreased from fine to coarse textures. The same functional patterns occurred in the HET data set. However, here the signal damping of time series did not increase monotonically with soil depth. The analysis succeeded in extracting the same signal transformation behavior from the NOISE data set compared to that of the HOM case in spite of being blurred by random noise. Thus, principal component analysis proved to be a very robust tool to disentangle between independent effects and to measure the degree of transformation of the input signal. The suggested approach can be used for (i) data processing, including subtracting measurement noise (ii) identification of factors controlling soil water dynamics, (iii) assessing the mean signal transformation in heterogeneous soils based on observed soil moisture time series, and (iv) model building, calibration and evaluation. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The organic matter (OM) in biopore walls and aggregate coatings may be important for sorption of reactive solutes and water as well as for solute mass exchange between the soil matrix and the preferential flow (PF) domains in structured soil. Structural surfaces are coated by illuvial clay-organic material and by OM of different origin, e.g., earthworm casts and root residues. The objectives were to verify the effect of OM on wettability and infiltration of intact structural surfaces in clay-illuvial horizons (Bt) of Luvisols and to investigate the relevance of the mm-scale distribution of OM composition on the water and solute transfer. Intact aggregate surfaces and biopore walls were prepared from Bt horizons of Luvisols developed from Loess and glacial till. The mm-scale spatial distribution of OM composition was scanned using diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy. The ratio between alkyl and carboxyl functional groups in OM was used as potential wettability index (PWI) of the OM. The infiltration dynamics of water and ethanol droplets were determined measuring contact angles (CA) and water drop penetration times (WDPT). At intact surfaces of earthworm burrows and coated cracks of the Loess-Bt, the potential wettability of the OM was significantly reduced compared to the uncoated matrix. These data corresponded to increased WDPT, indicating a mm-scaled sub-critical water repellency. The relation was highly linear for earthworm burrows and crack coatings from the Loess-Bt with WDPT >2.5 s. Other surfaces of the Loess-Bt and most surfaces of the till-derived Bt were not found to be repellent. At these surfaces, no relations between the potential wettability of the OM and the actual wettability of the surface were found. The results suggest that water absorption at intact surface structures, i.e., mass exchange between PF paths and soil matrix, can be locally affected by a mm-scale OM distribution if OM is of increased content and is enriched in alkyl functional groups. For such surfaces, the relation between potential and actual wettability provides the possibility to evaluate the mm-scale spatial distribution of wettability and sorption and mass exchange from DRIFT spectroscopic scanning.
This paper reports on extremely thick and massive duricrusts in soils of two basins in the Alentejo (southern Portugal). Since different types of duricrusts (calcretes, silcretes and palycretes) have been reported from other regions in the Mediterranean, the purpose of this study was to identify the cementing agents in the duricrusts and to compare their composition in the two basins. Moreover, the study aimed at identifying the processes involved in duricrust formation, and especially the role of topography and lateral water and element transport in the landscape, and drawing conclusions about environmental conditions and time of duricrust formation.
After studying an extensive number of road cuts in the field and mapping soil patterns in parts of the two basins by manual augering, ten pedons were selected for detailed description and sampling. Thin sections were analysed under a petrographic microscope, focusing on the micromorphology and optical properties of the cementing materials. Selected samples were studied by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy to reconfirm the optical identification. The laboratory analyses included pH, carbonate contents, and X-ray diffraction analysis.
The duricrusts in the eastern Sado basin are indurated by silica. Combination of XRD and thin section analysis allowed to identify opal-CT as a major component, while opal-A is present to a lesser extent, and chalcedony is very rare. The cementing materials of the duricrusts in the Oriola basin are palygorskite and calcite, which may occur alone or in combination within a soil profile.
The thick duricrusts formed in the basins through precipitation of calcite, palygorskite and silica from lateral water flows, which ran from the Serra de Portel into the basins, during short moist seasons in a generally warm, semi-arid climate with strong evapotranspiration. Lithology of the upper catchment areas (element sources) and topography control the spatial distribution of the different duricrusts. Their formation took place mainly during the Pliocene. Palygorskite transformation to smectite in the upper parts of the palycretes indicates that palygorskite is unstable in the present (more humid, typical Mediterranean) climate. This study demonstrates the potential role of lateral water and element transport in landscapes that need to be considered in pedological studies and concepts, and the use of mineral indicators of past climates such as palygorskite and the ageing stage of silica precipitations as tools for reconstructing environmental conditions and possible time of duricrust formation.
The drainage and cultivation of fen peatlands create complex small-scale mosaics of soils with extremely variable soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and groundwater levels (GWLs). To date, the significance of such sites as sources or sinks for greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 is still unclear, especially if the sites are used for cropland. As individual control factors such as GWL fail to account for this complexity, holistic approaches combining gas fluxes with the underlying processes are required to understand the carbon (C) gas exchange of drained fens. It can be assumed that the stocks of SOC and N located above the variable GWL - defined as dynamic C and N stocks - play a key role in the regulation of the plant- and microbially mediated CO2 fluxes in these soils and, inversely, for CH4. To test this assumption, the present study analysed the C gas exchange (gross primary production - GPP; ecosystem respiration - R-eco; net ecosystem exchange - NEE; CH4) of maize using manual chambers for 4 years. The study sites were located near Paulinenaue, Germany, where we selected three soil types representing the full gradient of GWL and SOC stocks (0-1 m) of the landscape: (a) Haplic Arenosol (AR; 8 kg C m(-2)); (b) Mollic Gleysol (GL; 38 kg C m(-2)); and (c) Hemic Histosol (HS; 87 kg C m(-2)). Daily GWL data were used to calculate dynamic SOC (SOCdyn) and N (N-dyn) stocks.
Average annual NEE differed considerably among sites, ranging from 47 +/- 30 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in AR to -305 +/- 123 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in GL and -127 +/- 212 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in HS. While static SOC and N stocks showed no significant effect on C fluxes, SOCdyn and N-dyn and their interaction with GWL strongly influenced the C gas exchange, particularly NEE and the GPP : R-eco ratio. Moreover, based on nonlinear regression analysis, 86% of NEE variability was explained by GWL and SOCdyn. The observed high relevance of dynamic SOC and N stocks in the aerobic zone for plant and soil gas exchange likely originates from the effects of GWL-dependent N availability on C formation and transformation processes in the plant-soil system, which promote CO2 input via GPP more than CO2 emission via R-eco.
The process-oriented approach of dynamic C and N stocks is a promising, potentially generalisable method for system-oriented investigations of the C gas exchange of groundwater-influenced soils and could be expanded to other nutrients and soil characteristics. However, in order to assess the climate impact of arable sites on drained peatlands, it is always necessary to consider the entire range of groundwater-influenced mineral and organic soils and their respective areal extent within the soil landscape.
The observation that the hydrogen isotope composition (delta D) of leaf wax lipids is determined mainly by precipitation delta D values, has resulted in the application of these biomarkers to reconstruct paleoclimate from geological records. However, because the delta D values of leaf wax lipids are additionally affected by vegetation type and ecosystem evapotranspiration, paleoclimatic reconstruction remains at best semi-quantitative. Here, we used published results for the carbon isotope composition (delta C-13) of n-alkanes in common plants along a latitudinal gradient in C-3/C-4 vegetation and relative humidity in Cameroon and demonstrated that pentacyclic triterpene methyl ethers (PTMEs) and n-C-29 and n-C-31 in the same soil, derived mainly from C-4 graminoids (e.g. grass) and C-3 plants (e.g. trees and shrubs), respectively. We found that the delta D values of soil n-C-27, n-C29 and n-C-31, and PTMEs correlated significantly with surface water delta D values, supporting previous observations that leaf wax lipid delta D values are an effective proxy for reconstructing precipitation delta D values even if plant types changed significantly. The apparent fractionation (epsilon(app)) between leaf wax lipid and precipitation delta D values remained relatively constant for C-3-derived long chain n-alkanes, whereas eapp of C-4-derived PTMEs decreased by 20 parts per thousand along the latitudinal gradient encompassing a relative humidity range from 80% to 45%. Our results indicate that PTME delta D values derived from C-4 graminoids may be a more reliable paleo-ecohydrological proxy for ecosystem evapotranspiration within tropical and sub-tropical Africa than n-alkane delta D values, the latter being a better proxy for surface water delta D values. We suggest that vegetation changes associated with different plant water sources and/or difference in timing of leaf wax synthesis between C-3 trees of the transitional class and C-3 shrubs of the savanna resulted in a D depletion in soil long chain n-alkanes, thereby counteracting the effect of evapotranspiration D enrichment along the gradient. In contrast, evaporative D enrichment of leaf and soil water was significant enough to be recorded in the delta D values of PTMEs derived from C-4 graminoids, likely because PTMEs recorded the hydrogen isotopic composition of the same vegetation type.
Effect of mass wasting on soil organic carbon storage and coastal erosion in permafrost environments
(2015)
Accelerated permafrost thaw under the warming Arctic climate can have a significant impact on Arctic landscapes. Areas underlain by permafrost store high amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). Permafrost disturbances may contribute to increased release of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere. Coastal erosion, amplified through a decrease in Arctic sea-ice extent, may also mobilise SOC from permafrost. Large expanses of permafrost affected land are characterised by intense mass-wasting processes such as solifluction, active-layer detachments and retrogressive thaw slumping. Our aim is to assess the influence of mass wasting on SOC storage and coastal erosion.
We studied SOC storage on Herschel Island by analysing active-layer and permafrost samples, and compared non-disturbed sites to those characterised by mass wasting. Mass-wasting sites showed decreased SOC storage and material compaction, whereas sites characterised by material accumulation showed increased storage. The SOC storage on Herschel Island is also significantly correlated to catenary position and other slope characteristics. We estimated SOC storage on Herschel Island to be 34.8 kg C m-2. This is comparable to similar environments in northwest Canada and Alaska.
Coastal erosion was analysed using high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs). Two LIDAR scanning of the Yukon Coast were done in 2012 and 2013. Two DEMs with 1 m horizontal resolution were generated and used to analyse elevation changes along the coast. The results indicate considerable spatial variability in short-term coastline erosion and progradation. The high variability was related to the presence of mass-wasting processes. Erosion and deposition extremes were recorded where the retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity was most pronounced. Released sediment can be transported by longshore drift and affects not only the coastal processes in situ but also along adjacent coasts.
We also calculated volumetric coastal erosion for Herschel Island by comparing a stereo-photogrammetrically derived DEM from 2004 with LIDAR DEMs. We compared this volumetric erosion to planimetric erosion, which was based on coastlines digitised from satellite imagery. We found a complex relationship between planimetric and volumetric coastal erosion, which we attribute to frequent occurrence of mass-wasting processes along the coasts. Our results suggest that volumetric erosion corresponds better with environmental forcing and is more suitable for the estimation of organic carbon fluxes than planimetric erosion.
Mass wasting can decrease SOC storage by several mechanisms. Increased aeration following disturbance may increase microbial activity, which accelerates organic matter decomposition. New hydrological conditions that follow the mass wasting event can cause leaching of freshly exposed material. Organic rich material can also be directly removed into the sea or into a lake. On the other hand the accumulation of mobilised material can result in increased SOC storage. Mass-wasting related accumulations of mobilised material can significantly impact coastal erosion in situ or along the adjacent coast by longshore drift. Therefore, the coastline movement observations cannot completely resolve the actual sediment loss due to these temporary accumulations. The predicted increase of mass-wasting activity in the course of Arctic warming may increase SOC mobilisation and coastal erosion induced carbon fluxes.
The mechanisms by which climate and vegetation affect erosion rates over various time scales lie at the heart of understanding landscape response to climate change. Plot-scale field experiments show that increased vegetation cover slows erosion, implying that faster erosion should occur under low to moderate vegetation cover. However, demonstrating this concept over long time scales and across landscapes has proven to be difficult, especially in settings complicated by tectonic forcing and variable slopes. We investigate this problem by measuring cosmogenic Be-10-derived catchment-mean denudation rates across a range of climate zones and hillslope gradients in the Kenya Rift, and by comparing our results with those published from the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda. We find that denudation rates from sparsely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift are up to 0.13 mm/yr, while those from humid and more densely vegetated parts of the Kenya Rift flanks and the Rwenzori Mountains reach a maximum of 0.08 mm/yr, despite higher median hillslope gradients. While differences in lithology and recent land-use changes likely affect the denudation rates and vegetation cover values in some of our studied catchments, hillslope gradient and vegetation cover appear to explain most of the variation in denudation rates across the study area. Our results support the idea that changing vegetation cover can contribute to complex erosional responses to climate or land-use change and that vegetation cover can play an important role in determining the steady-state slopes of mountain belts through its stabilizing effects on the land surface.
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.
Ar-40/Ar-39 in situ UV laser ablation of white mica, Rb-Sr mineral isochrons and zircon fission track dating were applied to determine ages of very low- to low-grade metamorphic processes at 3.5 +/- 0.4 kbar, 280 +/- 30 degrees C in the Avalonian Mira terrane of SE Cape Breton Island (Nova Scotia). The Mira terrane comprises Neoproterozoic volcanic-arc rocks overlain by Cambrian sedimentary rocks. Crystallization of metamorphic white mica was dated in six metavolcanic samples by Ar-40/Ar-39 spot age peaks between 396 +/- 3 and 363 +/- 14 Ma. Rb-Sr systematics of minerals and mineral aggregates yielded two isochrons at 389 +/- 7 Ma and 365 +/- 8 Ma, corroborating equilibrium conditions during very low- to low-grade metamorphism. The dated white mica is oriented parallel to foliations produced by sinistral strike-slip faulting and/or folding related to the Middle-Late Devonian transpressive assembly of Avalonian terranes during convergence and emplacement of the neighbouring Meguma terrane. Exhumation occurred earlier in the NW Mira terrane than in the SE. Transpression was related to the closure of the Rheic Ocean between Gondwana and Laurussia by NW-directed convergence. The Ar-40/Ar-39 spot age spectra also display relict age peaks at 477-465 Ma, 439 Ma and 420-428 Ma attributed to deformation and fluid access, possibly related to the collision of Avalonia with composite Laurentia or to earlier Ordovician-Silurian rifting. Fission track ages of zircon from Mira terrane samples range between 242 +/- 18 and 225 +/- 21 Ma and reflect late Palaeozoic reburial and reheating close to previous peak metamorphic temperatures under fluid-absent conditions during rifting prior to opening of the Central Atlantic Ocean.
The long-term temporal and spatial changes in statistical, source, and stress characteristics of one cluster of induced seismicity recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (U.S.) are analyzed in relation to the field operations, fluid migration, and constraints on the maximum likely magnitude. Two injection wells, Prati-9 and Prati-29, located in the northwestern part of the field and their associated seismicity composed of 1776 events recorded throughout a 7year period were analyzed. The seismicity catalog was relocated, and the source characteristics including focal mechanisms and static source parameters were refined using first-motion polarity, spectral fitting, and mesh spectral ratio analysis techniques. The source characteristics together with statistical parameters (b value) and cluster dynamics were used to investigate and understand the details of fluid migration scheme in the vicinity of injection wells. The observed temporal, spatial, and source characteristics were clearly attributed to fluid injection and fluid migration toward greater depths, involving increasing pore pressure in the reservoir. The seasonal changes of injection rates were found to directly impact the shape and spatial extent of the seismic cloud. A tendency of larger seismic events to occur closer to injection wells and a correlation between the spatial extent of the seismic cloud and source sizes of the largest events was observed suggesting geometrical constraints on the maximum likely magnitude and its correlation to the average injection rate and volume of fluids present in the reservoir.
It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published Be-10-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Einleitung
(2015)
Our understanding of the impact of climate-driven environmental change on prehistoric human populations is hampered by the scarcity of continuous paleoenvironmental records in the vicinity of archaeological sites. Here we compare a continuous paleoclimatic record of the last 20 ka before present from the Chew Bahir basin, southwest Ethiopia, with the available archaeological record of human presence in the region. The correlation of this record with orbitally-driven insolation variations suggests a complex nonlinear response of the environment to climate forcing, reflected in several long-term and short-term transitions between wet and dry conditions, resulting in abrupt changes between favorable and unfavorable living conditions for humans. Correlating the archaeological record in the surrounding region of the Chew Bahir basin, presumably including montane and lake-marginal refugia for human populations, with our climate record suggests a complex interplay between humans and their environment during the last 20 ka. The result may contribute to our understanding of how a dynamic environment may have impacted the adaptation and dispersal of early humans in eastern Africa. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Episodes of environmental stability and instability may be equally important for African hominin speciation, dispersal, and cultural innovation. Three examples of a change from stable to unstable environmental conditions are presented on three different time scales: (1) the Mid Holocene (MH) wet dry transition in the Chew Bahir basin (Southern Ethiopian Rift; between 11 ka and 4 ka), (2) the MIS 5-4 transition in the Naivasha basin (Central Kenya Rift; between 160 ka and 50 ka), and (3) the Early Mid Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) in the Olorgesailie basin (Southern Kenya Rift; between 1.25 Ma and 0.4 Ma). A probabilistic age modeling technique is used to determine the timing of these transitions, taking into account possible abrupt changes in the sedimentation rate including episodes of no deposition (hiatuses). Interestingly, the stable-unstable conditions identified in the three records are always associated with an orbitally-induced decrease of insolation: the descending portion of the 800 kyr cycle during the EMPT, declining eccentricity after the 115 ka maximum at the MIS 5-4 transition, and after similar to 10 ka. This observation contributes to an evidence-based discussion of the possible mechanisms causing the switching between environmental stability and instability in Eastern Africa at three different orbital time scales (10,000 to 1,000,000 years) during the Cenozoic. This in turn may lead to great insights into the environmental changes occurring at the same time as hominin speciation, brain expansion, dispersal out of Africa, and cultural innovations and may provide key evidence to build new hypotheses regarding the causes of early human evolution. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Plasma convection in the high-latitude ionosphere provides important information about magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling. In this study we estimate the along-track component of plasma convection within and around the polar cap, using electron density profiles measured by the three Swarm satellites. The velocity values estimated from the two different satellite pairs agree with each other. In both hemispheres the estimated velocity is generally anti-sunward, especially for higher speeds. The obtained velocity is in qualitative agreement with Super Dual Auroral Radar Network data. Our method can supplement currently available instruments for ionospheric plasma velocity measurements, especially in cases where these traditional instruments suffer from their inherent limitations. Also, the method can be generalized to other satellite constellations carrying electron density probes.
Models for estimating flood losses to infrastructure are rare and their reliability is seldom investigated although infrastructure losses might contribute considerably to the overall flood losses. In this paper, an empirical modelling approach for estimating direct structural flood damage to railway infrastructure and associated financial losses is presented. Via a combination of event data, i.e. photo-documented damage on the Northern Railway in Lower Austria caused by the March River flood in 2006, and simulated flood characteristics, i.e. water levels, flow velocities and combinations thereof, the correlations between physical flood impact parameters and damage occurred to the railway track were investigated and subsequently rendered into a damage model. After calibrating the loss estimation using recorded repair costs of the Austrian Federal Railways, the model was applied to three synthetic scenarios with return periods of 30, 100 and 300 years of March River flooding. Finally, the model results are compared to depth-damage-curve-based approaches for the infrastructure sector obtained from the Rhine Atlas damage model and the Damage Scanner model. The results of this case study indicate a good performance of our two-stage model approach. However, due to a lack of independent event and damage data, the model could not yet be validated. Future research in natural risk should focus on the development of event and damage documentation procedures to overcome this significant hurdle in flood damage modelling.
Thick sedimentary fills in intermontane valleys are common in formerly glaciated mountain ranges but difficult to quantify. Yet knowledge of the fill thickness distribution could help to estimate sediment budgets of mountain belts and to decipher the role of stored material in modulating sediment flux from the orogen to the foreland. Here we present a new approach to estimate valley fill thickness and bedrock topography based on the geometric properties of a landscape using artificial neural networks. We test the potential of this approach following a four-tiered procedure. First, experiments with synthetic, idealized landscapes show that increasing variability in surface slopes requires successively more complex network configurations. Second, in experiments with artificially filled natural landscapes, we find that fill volumes can be estimated with an error below 20%. Third, in natural examples with valley fill surfaces that have steeply inclined slopes, such as the Unteraar and the Rhone Glaciers in the Swiss Alps, for example, the average deviation of cross-sectional area between the measured and the modeled valley fill is 26% and 27%, respectively. Finally, application of the method to the Rhone Valley, an overdeepened glacial valley in the Swiss Alps, yields a total estimated sediment volume of 9711km(3) and an average deviation of cross-sectional area between measurements and model estimates of 21.5%. Our new method allows for rapid assessment of sediment volumes in intermontane valleys while eliminating most of the subjectivity that is typically inherent in other methods where bedrock reconstructions are based on digital elevation models.
Sequences of coral reef terraces characterized by staircase morphologies and a homogeneous lithology make them appropriate to isolate the influence of uplift on drainage morphology. Along the northern coast of Sumba Island, Indonesia, we investigated the correlations between landscape morphology and uplift rates, which range from 0.02 to 0.6 mm.yr(-1). We studied eight morphometric indices at two scales: whole island (similar to 11,000 km(2)) and within sequences of reefal terraces (similar to 3000 km(2)). At the latter scale, we extracted morphometric indices for 15 individual catchments draining mostly the reefal terraces and for 30 areas undergoing specific ranges of uplift rates draining only the reefal terraces. Indices extracted from digital elevation models include residual relief, incision, stream gradient indices (SL and k(sn)), the hypsometric integral, drainage area, mean relief, and the shape factor. We find that SL, the hypsometric integral, mean relief and the shape factor of catchments positively correlate with uplift rates, whereas incision, residual relief, and k(sn) do not. More precisely, we find that only the areas that are uplifting at a rate faster than 03 mm.yr(-1) can yield the extreme values for these indices, implying that these extreme values are indicative of fast uplifting areas. However, the relationship is not bivalent because any uplift rate can be associated with low values of the same indices. For all indices, the transient conditions of the drainage influence the correlation with Pleistocene mean uplift rates, illustrating the necessity to extract morphometric indices with an appropriate choice of catchment scale. This type of analysis helps to identify the morphometric indices that are most useful for tectonic analysis in areas of unknown uplift, allowing for easy identification of short spatial variations of uplift rate and detection of areas with relatively fast uplift rates in unstudied coastal zones. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective
(2015)
Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary.
A main limitation in the field of flood hydrology is the short time period covered by instrumental flood time series, rarely exceeding more than 50 to 100 years. However, climate variability acts on short to millennial time scales and identifying causal linkages to extreme hydrological events requires longer datasets. To extend instrumental flood time series back in time, natural geoarchives are increasingly explored as flood recorders. Therefore, annually laminated (varved) lake sediments seem to be the most suitable archives since (i) lake basins act as natural sediment traps in the landscape continuously recording land surface processes including floods and (ii) individual flood events are preserved as detrital layers intercalated in the varved sediment sequence and can be dated with seasonal precision by varve counting.
The main goal of this thesis is to improve the understanding about hydrological and sedimentological processes leading to the formation of detrital flood layers and therewith to contribute to an improved interpretation of lake sediments as natural flood archives. This goal was achieved in two ways: first, by comparing detrital layers in sediments of two dissimilar peri-Alpine lakes, Lago Maggiore in Northern Italy and Mondsee in Upper Austria, with local instrumental flood data and, second, by tracking detrital layer formation during floods by a combined hydro-sedimentary monitoring network at Lake Mondsee spanning from the rain fall to the deposition of detrital sediment at the lake floor.
Successions of sub-millimetre to 17 mm thick detrital layers were detected in sub-recent lake sediments of the Pallanza Basin in the western part of Lago Maggiore (23 detrital layers) and Lake Mondsee (23 detrital layers) by combining microfacies and high-resolution micro X-ray fluorescence scanning techniques (µ-XRF). The detrital layer records were dated by detailed intra-basin correlation to a previously dated core sequence in Lago Maggiore and varve counting in Mondsee. The intra-basin correlation of detrital layers between five sediment cores in Lago Maggiore and 13 sediment cores in Mondsee allowed distinguishing river runoff events from local erosion. Moreover, characteristic spatial distribution patterns of detrital flood layers revealed different depositional processes in the two dissimilar lakes, underflows in Lago Maggiore as well as under- and interflows in Mondsee. Comparisons with runoff data of the main tributary streams, the Toce River at Lago Maggiore and the Griesler Ache at Mondsee, revealed empirical runoff thresholds above which the deposition of a detrital layer becomes likely. Whereas this threshold is the same for the whole Pallanza Basin in Lago Maggiore (600 m3s-1 daily runoff), it varies within Lake Mondsee. At proximal locations close to the river inflow detrital layer deposition requires floods exceeding a daily runoff of 40 m3s-1, whereas at a location 2 km more distal an hourly runoff of 80 m3s-1 and at least 2 days with runoff above 40 m3s-1 are necessary. A relation between the thickness of individual deposits and runoff amplitude of the triggering events is apparent for both lakes but is obviously further influenced by variable influx and lake internal distribution of detrital sediment.
To investigate processes of flood layer formation in lake sediments, hydro-sedimentary dynamics in Lake Mondsee and its main tributary stream, Griesler Ache, were monitored from January 2011 to December 2013. Precipitation, discharge and turbidity were recorded continuously at the rivers outlet to the lake and compared to sediment fluxes trapped close to the lake bottom on a basis of three to twelve days and on a monthly basis in three different water depths at two locations in the lake basin, in a distance of 0.9 (proximal) and 2.8 km (distal) to the Griesler Ache inflow. Within the three-year observation period, 26 river floods of different amplitude (10-110 m3s-1) were recorded resulting in variable sediment fluxes to the lake (4-760 g m-2d-1). Vertical and lateral variations in flood-related sedimentation during the largest floods indicate that interflows are the main processes of lake internal sediment transport in Lake Mondsee. The comparison of hydrological and sedimentological data revealed (i) a rapid sedimentation within three days after the peak runoff in the proximal and within six to ten days in the distal lake basin, (ii) empirical runoff thresholds for triggering sediment flux at the lake floor increasing from the proximal (20 m3s-1) to the distal lake basin (30 m3s-1) and (iii) factors controlling the amount of detrital sediment deposition at a certain location in the lake basin. The total influx of detrital sediment is mainly driven by runoff amplitude, catchment sediment availability and episodic sediment input by local sediment sources. A further role plays the lake internal sediment distribution which is not the same for each event but is favoured by flood duration and the existence of a thermocline and, therewith, the season in which a flood occurred.
In summary, the studies reveal a high sensitivity of lake sediments to flood events of different intensity. Certain runoff amplitudes are required to supply enough detrital material to form a visible detrital layer at the lake floor. Reasonable are positive feedback mechanisms between rainfall, runoff, erosion, fluvial sediment transport capacity and lake internal sediment distribution. Therefore, runoff thresholds for detrital layer formation are site-specific due to different lake-catchment characteristics. However, the studies also reveal that flood amplitude is not the only control for the amount of deposited sediment at a certain location in the lake basin even for the strongest flood events. The sediment deposition is rather influenced by a complex interaction of catchment and in-lake processes. This means that the coring location within a lake basin strongly determines the significance of a flood layer record. Moreover, the results show that while lake sediments provide ideal archives for reconstructing flood frequencies, the reconstruction of flood amplitudes is a more complex issue and requires detailed knowledge about relevant catchment and in-lake sediment transport and depositional processes.
Extreme Rainfall of the South American Monsoon System: A Dataset Comparison Using Complex Networks
(2015)
In this study, the authors compare six different rainfall datasets for South America with a focus on their representation of extreme rainfall during the monsoon season (December February): the gauge-calibrated TRMM 3B42 V7 satellite product; the near-real-time TRMM 3B42 V7 RT, the GPCP 1 degrees daily (1DD) V1.2 satellite gauge combination product, the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) product; output of a high-spatial-resolution run of the ECHAM6 global circulation model; and output of the regional climate model Eta. For the latter three, this study can be understood as a model evaluation. In addition to statistical values of local rainfall distributions, the authors focus on the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall covariability. Since traditional approaches based on principal component analysis are not applicable in the context of extreme events, they apply and further develop methods based on complex network theory. This way, the authors uncover substantial differences in extreme rainfall patterns between the different datasets: (i) The three model-derived datasets yield very different results than the satellite gauge combinations regarding the main climatological propagation pathways of extreme events as well as the main convergence zones of the monsoon system. (ii) Large discrepancies are found for the development of mesoscale convective systems in southeastern South America. (iii) Both TRMM datasets and ECHAM6 indicate a linkage of extreme rainfall events between the central Amazon basin and the eastern slopes of the central Andes, but this pattern is not reproduced by the remaining datasets. The authors' study suggests that none of the three model-derived datasets adequately captures extreme rainfall patterns in South America.
In order to achieve meaningful climate protection targets at the global scale, each country is called to set national energy policies aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions. By calculating the monthly heating energy demand of dwellings in the Netherlands, our case study country, we contrast the results with the corresponding aspired national targets. Considering different future population scenarios, renovation measures and temperature variations, we show that a near zero energy demand in 2050 could only be reached with very ambitious renovation measures. While the goal of reducing the energy demand of the building sector by 50% until 2030 compared to 1990 seems feasible for most provinces and months in the minimum scenario, it is impossible in our scenario with more pessimistic yet still realistic assumptions regarding future developments. Compared to the current value, the annual renovation rate per province would need to be at least doubled in order to reach the 2030 target independent of reasonable climatic and population changes in the future. Our findings also underline the importance of policy measures as the annual renovation rate is a key influencing factor regarding the reduction of the heating energy demand in dwellings. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
In the last decade, the number and dimensions of catastrophic flooding events in the Niger River Basin (NRB) have markedly increased. Despite the devastating impact of the floods on the population and the mainly agriculturally based economy of the riverine nations, awareness of the hazards in policy and science is still low. The urgency of this topic and the existing research deficits are the motivation for the present dissertation.
The thesis is an initial detailed assessment of the increasing flood risk in the NRB. The research strategy is based on four questions regarding (1) features of the change in flood risk, (2) reasons for the change in the flood regime, (3) expected changes of the flood regime given climate and land use changes, and (4) recommendations from previous analysis for reducing the flood risk in the NRB.
The question examining the features of change in the flood regime is answered by means of statistical analysis. Trend, correlation, changepoint, and variance analyses show that, in addition to the factors exposure and vulnerability, the hazard itself has also increased significantly in the NRB, in accordance with the decadal climate pattern of West Africa. The northern arid and semi-arid parts of the NRB are those most affected by the changes.
As potential reasons for the increase in flood magnitudes, climate and land use changes are attributed by means of a hypothesis-testing framework. Two different approaches, based on either data analysis or simulation, lead to similar results, showing that the influence of climatic changes is generally larger compared to that of land use changes. Only in the dry areas of the NRB is the influence of land use changes comparable to that of climatic alterations.
Future changes of the flood regime are evaluated using modelling results. First ensembles of statistically and dynamically downscaled climate models based on different emission scenarios are analyzed. The models agree with a distinct increase in temperature. The precipitation signal, however, is not coherent. The climate scenarios are used to drive an eco-hydrological model. The influence of climatic changes on the flood regime is uncertain due to the unclear precipitation signal. Still, in general, higher flood peaks are expected. In a next step, effects of land use changes are integrated into the model. Different scenarios show that regreening might help to reduce flood peaks. In contrast, an expansion of agriculture might enhance the flood peaks in the NRB. Similarly to the analysis of observed changes in the flood regime, the impacts of climate- and land use changes for the future scenarios are also most severe in the dry areas of the NRB.
In order to answer the final research question, the results of the above analysis are integrated into a range of recommendations for science and policy on how to reduce flood risk in the NRB. The main recommendations include a stronger consideration of the enormous natural climate variability in the NRB and a focus on so called “no-regret” adaptation strategies which account for high uncertainty, as well as a stronger consideration of regional differences. Regarding the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic flooding, the most vulnerable and sensitive areas in the basin, the arid and semi-arid Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian regions, should be prioritized. Eventually, an active, science-based and science-guided flood policy is recommended. The enormous population growth in the NRB in connection with the expected deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions is likely to enhance the region´s vulnerability to flooding. A smart and sustainable flood policy can help mitigate these negative impacts of flooding on the development of riverine societies in West Africa.
Stream water and groundwater are important fresh water resources but their water quality is deteriorated by harmful solutes introduced by human activities. The interface between stream water and the subsurface water is an important zone for retention, transformation and attenuation of these solutes. Streambed structures enhance these processes by increased water and solute exchange across this interface, denoted as hyporheic exchange.
This thesis investigates the influence of hydrological and morphological factors on hyporheic water and solute exchange as well as redox-reactions in fluvial streambed structures on the intermediate scale (10–30m). For this purpose, a three-dimensional numerical modeling approach for coupling stream water flow with porous media flow is used. Multiple steady state stream water flow scenarios over different generic pool-riffle morphologies and a natural in-stream gravel bar are simulated by a computational fluid dynamics code that provides the hydraulic head distribution at the streambed. These heads are subsequently used as the top boundary condition of a reactive transport groundwater model of the subsurface beneath the streambed. Ambient groundwater that naturally interacts with the stream water is considered in scenarios of different magnitudes of downwelling stream water (losing case) and upwelling groundwater (gaining case). Also, the neutral case, where stream stage and groundwater levels are balanced is considered. Transport of oxygen, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon and their reaction by aerobic respiration and denitrification are modeled.
The results show that stream stage and discharge primarily induce hyporheic exchange flux and solute transport with implications for specific residence times and reactions at both the fully and partially submerged structures. Gaining and losing conditions significantly diminish the extent of the hyporheic zone, the water exchange flux, and shorten residence times for both the fully and partially submerged structures. With increasing magnitude of gaining or losing conditions, these metrics exponentially decrease.
Stream water solutes are transported mainly advectively into the hyporheic zone and hence their influx corresponds directly to the infiltrating water flux. Aerobic respiration takes place in the shallow streambed sediments, coinciding to large parts with the extent of the hyporheic exchange flow. Denitrification occurs mainly as a “reactive fringe” surrounding the aerobic zone, where oxygen concentration is low and still a sufficient amount of stream water carbon source is available. The solute consumption rates and the efficiency of the aerobic and anaerobic reactions depend primarily on the available reactive areas and the residence times, which are both controlled by the interplay between hydraulic head distribution at the streambed and the gradients between stream stage and ambient groundwater. Highest solute consumption rates can be expected under neutral conditions, where highest solute flux, longest residence times and largest extent of the hyporheic exchange occur. The results of this thesis show that streambed structures on the intermediate scale have a significant potential to contribute to a net solute turnover that can support a healthy status of the aquatic ecosystem.
The H/V spectral ratio has emerged as a single station method within the seismic ambient noise analysis field by its capability to quickly estimate the frequency of resonance at a site and through inversion the average profile information. Although it is easy to compute from experimental data, its counter theoretical part is not obvious when building a forward model which can help in reconstructing the derived H/V spectrum. This has led to the simplified assumption that the noise wavefield is mainly composed of Rayleigh waves and the derived H/V often used without further correction. Furthermore, only the right (and left) flank around the H/V peak frequency is considered in the inversion for the subsurface 1-D shear wave velocity profile. A new theoretical approach for the interpretation of the H/V spectral ratio has been presented by Sanchez-Sesmaet al. In this paper, the fundamental idea behind their theory is presented as it applies to receivers at depth. A smooth H/V(z, f) spectral curve on a broad frequency range is obtained by considering a fine integration step which is in turn time consuming. We show that for practical purposes and in the context of inversion, this can be considerably optimized by using a coarse integration step combined with the smoothing of the corresponding directional energy density (DED) spectrum. Further analysis shows that the obtained H/V(z, f) spectrum computed by the mean of the imaginary part of Green's function method could also be recovered using the reflectivity method for a medium well illuminated by seismic sources. Inversion of synthetic H/V(z, f) spectral curve is performed for a single layer over a half space. The striking results allow to potentially use the new theory as a forward computation of the H/V(z, f) to fully invert the experimental H/V spectral ratio at the corresponding depth for the shear velocity profile (Vs) and additionally the compressional velocity profile (Vp) using receivers both at the surface and in depth. We use seismic ambient noise data in the frequency range of 0.2-50 Hz recorded at two selected sites in Germany where borehole information is also available. The obtained 1-D Vs and Vp profiles are correlated with geological log information. Results from shallow geophysical experiment are also used for comparison.
Geochemistry and Ar-40/Ar-39 age of Early Carboniferous dolerite sills in the southern Baltic Sea
(2015)
The Early Carboniferous magmatic event in the southern Baltic Sea is manifested by dolerite intrusions. The presumable area in which the dolerite intrusions occur ranges from 30 to 60 km in east-west direction, and is about 100 km in north-south direction. The dolerites were sampled in well D1-1 and investigated by applying chemical analysis and Ar-40/Ar-39 step-heating dating. Dolerites are classified as alkali and sodic, characterized by high TiO2 (3.92, 3.99 wt%) and P2O5 (1.67, 1.77 wt%) and low MgO (4.89, 4.91 wt%) concentrations, enriched in light rare earth elements, originated from an enriched mantle magma source and emplaced in a continental rift tectonic setting. The 351 +/- 11 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau age for groundmass plagioclase indicates a considerable age gap with the 310-250 Ma magmatism in southern Scandinavia and northern Germany. The magmatic rocks in the Baltic Sedimentary Basin are coeval with alkaline intrusions of NE Poland. Both magmatic provinces lie in the northwestward prolongation of the Pripyat-Dnieper-Donetsk Rift (370-359 Ma) and may constitute a later phase of magmatic activity of this propagating rift system.
Background: GEOMAGIA50.v3 for sediments is a comprehensive online database providing access to published paleomagnetic, rock magnetic, and chronological data obtained from lake and marine sediments deposited over the past 50 ka. Its objective is to catalogue data that will improve our understanding of changes in the geomagnetic field, physical environments, and climate.
Findings: GEOMAGIA50.v3 for sediments builds upon the structure of the pre-existing GEOMAGIA50 database for magnetic data from archeological and volcanic materials. A strong emphasis has been placed on the storage of geochronological data, and it is the first magnetic archive that includes comprehensive radiocarbon age data from sediments. The database will be updated as new sediment data become available.
Conclusions: The web-based interface for the sediment database is located at http://geomagia.gfz-potsdam.de/geomagiav3/SDquery.php. This paper is a companion to Brown et al. (Earth Planets Space doi:10.1186/s40623-015-0232-0,2015) and describes the data types, structure, and functionality of the sediment database.